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Regime Stability and Foreign Policy Change Interaction Between Domestic and Foreign Policy in Hungary 1956-1994 Niklasson, Tomas

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Regime Stability and Foreign Policy Change Interaction Between Domestic and Foreign Policy in Hungary 1956-1994 Niklasson, Tomas Regime Stability and Foreign Policy Change Interaction between Domestic and Foreign Policy in Hungary 1956-1994 Niklasson, Tomas 2006 Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Niklasson, T. (2006). Regime Stability and Foreign Policy Change: Interaction between Domestic and Foreign Policy in Hungary 1956-1994. Department of Political Science, Lund University. Total number of authors: 1 General rights Unless other specific re-use rights are stated the following general rights apply: Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal Read more about Creative commons licenses: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/ Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. LUND UNIVERSITY PO Box 117 221 00 Lund +46 46-222 00 00 REGIME STABILITY AND FOREIGN POLICY CHANGE Interaction between Domestic and Foreign Policy in Hungary 1956-1994 Tomas Niklasson Lund Political Studies 143 Department of Political Science Lund University Cover design: Cecilia Campbell Layout: Tomas Niklasson © 2006 Tomas Niklasson ISBN: 91-88306-56-9 Lund Political Studies 143 ISSN: 0460-0037 Printed by Studentlitteratur Lund, 2006 Distribution: Department of Political Science Lund University Box 52 SE-221 00 Lund SWEDEN http://www.svet.lu.se/lps/lps.html To Kasper and Felix, for the insights they have provided into work-life balance – and rat races... Contents Acknowledgements ix List of acronyms xiii List of Party congresses and Prime Ministers xvi Chapter 1 – Introduction 1 Why this study? 2 Perspective and aims of the study 4 My choice of case and methodology 5 Source material and concepts 7 Delimitations 9 Structure of the study 11 Chapter 2 – Regime Stability and Foreign Policy – a ‘Two-Level Game’ 15 Regime stability – legitimacy, performance and coercion 15 Defining and analysing foreign policy 24 Analysing, explaining or understanding foreign policy? 31 Links between domestic and foreign policy 32 Chapter 3 – Foreign Policy Change 37 Analysing foreign policy change 39 Explaining foreign policy change 44 The scope and use of my framework 54 Chapter 4 – Kádár’s Quest for Stability 59 1956 – A background to the Kádár regime 59 Coercion, performance or legitimacy? 64 Conclusions – Did the Kádár regime acquire stability? 101 Chapter 5 – Hungarian Foreign Policy and Foreign Policy Change 1956-88 107 The five problems in foreign policy 107 Foreign policy during the years of coercion – 1956-62 108 Foreign policy change 1963-74 116 Foreign policy change 1975-79 121 Foreign policy change 1980-84 127 Foreign policy change 1985-88 138 Conclusions – Foreign policy change 1956-88 152 Chapter 6 – The End of Socialism and Transition towards Democracy 1988-90 165 Explaining the end of the Socialist regime 166 The change 190 Dismantling the iron curtain 203 Chapter 7 – Political Stability 1990-94 211 Free elections - a background to the democratic Government 211 Stability strategies under democracy 216 Challenges to stability 219 A weak Government in a stable system 227 Conclusions – Democracy and political stability 1990-94 230 Chapter 8 – Foreign Policy Change 1990-94 235 Foreign policy reorientation and disengagement 235 Foreign policy restructuring 245 Conclusions – Foreign policy disengagement and restructuring 1990-94 273 Chapter 9 – Conclusions 283 Stability in a comparative perspective 284 Foreign policy change in a comparative perspective 286 Links between the search for regime stability and foreign policy change 289 Revisiting theory 295 Epilogue 299 References 301 Lund Political Studies 335 Boxes and tables Box 2.1. – A conceptual framework for analysing stabilisation strategies 23 Box 3.1. – Aspects of foreign policy change 43 Box 3.2. – Promoters of foreign policy change 47 Box 3.3. – Stabilisers of foreign policy 53 Table 4.1. – Annual growth rates in Hungary 81 Table 4.2. – Gross convertible currency debt 82 Table 4.3. – Interest on foreign debt/export earnings 89 Table 4.4. – Crisis of legitimacy 100 Table 7.1. – Members of Parliament by party affiliation 229 Acknowledgements This study is the result of a rather protracted research process. It all started in what now feels like a distant past when the WTO was used to refer to the Warsaw Treaty Organisation, American Presidents did not yet have to be qualified by ‘Sr’ and ‘Jr’, and carbohydrates were still generally considered to be an essential part of a healthy diet. The project was based on two implicit hypotheses: (1) writing a dissertation in political science would not take more than five years, and (2) changing the political systems of Eastern Europe would. Both of these have been firmly falsified through, and during, my research. Throughout these years, and even before, many people have contributed to this study and I owe them much gratitude. My mother and late father did not consciously encourage me to engage in this project but continuously encouraged me once I had. Örjan Sturesjö, a leading expert on Eastern Europe and the Balkans at ‘the other place’, helped me to discover the fascinating world of Central and Eastern Europe, even North of the Balkans, and considerably broadened my conception of research strategies. In 1991-92 Ágnes Mélypataki struggled hard during one year – egy év alatt – to teach me slightly more Hungarian than I have had the time to forget during the past fourteen years while Ferenc Miszlivetz and Jody Jensen were willing to share the crazy academic world of post-Socialist Hungary with me. The Department of Political Science at Lund University remained a welcoming and pleasant environment for teaching and research during a number of years. During that period I had the privilege of working together with some very talented colleagues who also became good friends: Annika Thunborg, Ragnhild Ek, Karin Aggestam, Bo Petersson, Anders Uhlin, Karl Magnus Johansson, Per Larsson, Pauline Stoltz, Annica Kronsell, Peter Söderholm, and the list could be longer. They have all, to different degrees and at various times, contributed to making this study what it is. I also benefited from the support, help and advice from several more senior colleagues at the Department – in particular Magnus Jerneck, Anders Sannerstedt, Christer Jönsson and Bo Bjurulf, not to mention Gunnel Sjöholm and Lars Wester. ix Catarina Kinnvall surely merits a paragraph of her own. Without her continuous help, encouragement and irresistible enthusiasm I do not think I would have managed. More importantly, Catta has remained a close and dear friend throughout this period and a role model in terms of determination. I never said ‘stubborn’... Moving between Lund, Budapest, Stockholm and Brussels and the distinct worlds of academia, security policy analysis, and European policy making in the fields of education and training and development cooperation can, at best, help you to develop a broad perspective on a range of issues. At worst, it is a pretty foolproof recipe for a confused mind. I would like to thank a number of friends and colleagues who helped me adapt to, and recover from, such experiences and who made this extended period of more and less active research so pleasant. Even a far from non-exhaustive Swedish list would have to include Trevor & Helen Kydd, Sweet Pan Steelband, Mats Sandberg, Martin Bengtsson, Karin Olofsdotter, Angelina Madunic and Jens Stilhof Sørensen. A selective ‘Brussels & Paris list’ includes Yves Bertoncini and Gianfranco Bochicchio – camarades on the, not quite successful, 1999 Montblanc expedition – Susanne Roslund, Magnus Bergström, Gordon Clark, Jens Björnåvold, Nicolas Gibert-Morin, Simon Jones, Cesare Onestini, Anna Thompson, Gregory Wurzburg, Johan Stierna, Juan Garay, and Ingemar & Malin Strandvik. The ‘London list’ is short but exclusive: Rolla Khadduri helped me to rediscover how much fun it can be writing together, in an exercise that put most of my, and possibly our, previous experiences of ‘impossible deadlines’ in a new perspective. The research project has benefited from generous financial support from the Swedish Institute and the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for which I would like to express my gratitude. The Hungarian Embassy in Stockholm helped me to get access to specific information material regarding Hungarian foreign policy. The Central Library of the European Commission also was helpful in providing photocopies of recent articles on specific issues. Ian Manners and Catarina Kinnvall provided thorough and constructive comments on an early draft, whereas Jakob Gustavsson and Björn Fägersten gave excellent comments and constructive ideas for improving the text at the final seminar in December 2005. David Ratford read the whole manuscript and made numerous suggestions that considerably improved its linguistic quality, while tactfully correcting some of my wilder reinterpretations of modern international history. x Gyöngyi Mikita, Aline Spriet and Elke Sallach kindly checked my Hungarian translations and my French and German quotations, which illustrates what a privilege it is to work in a multi-lingual environment surrounded by helpful colleagues. Cecilia Campbell designed the cover, without which this book would still have been no more than a rather solid bunch of photocopies. Last but not least, I would like to thank my supervisor, Lars-Göran Stenelo, for encouraging me, for hiding his impatience and for not giving up. It was thanks to his kindness, enthusiasm, immediate feedback when called for, pertinent comments and considerable flexibility that this study first took shape at all and, ultimately, took the form it did.
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