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Missing Signal N ESSENCE I OTHER NATIONS Israel Defense Forces (IDF) were sent reeling. Though they eventually beat MISSING SIGNAL back the offensive, success came at the cost of more than 8,000 Israeli casualties, OTHER NATIONS THE SOURCE: “The ‘Special Means of Collection’” by Uri Bar-Joseph, in The Middle East Journal, Autumn 2013. as well as the confident assumption that the still-young country was prepared ON OCTOBER 6, 1973—YOM KIPPUR, THE for anything. Jewish “Day of Atonement”—Egyptian Since its victory in the Six-Day War in and Syrian forces launched surprise at- 1967, Israel had been waiting for such an tacks on Israeli positions in the Sinai attack, and military and political leaders, Peninsula and along the Golan Heights, including Prime Minister Golda Meir, on Israel’s contested border with Syria. were sure they could anticipate such a With many Israeli soldiers observing strike at least 48 hours ahead of time. Af- the holy day away from their posts, the ter the war, citizens and politicians alike invaders made quick gains. The vaunted were left wondering, what happened? MANUEL LITRAN / PARIS MATCH VIA GETTY IMAGES A battle-smudged Syrian soldier pauses during the Yom Kippur War of 1973. Syria and Egypt made great gains at first because Israeli leaders ignored warnings that an attack was imminent. THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2014 N ESSENCE I an Israeli strike deep into Egypt. The The military intelligence Agranat Commission’s conclusions led chief never informed to the dismissal of the IDF’s chief of staff, David Elazar, and the head of OTHER NATIONS his superiors that he Aman, Major General Eli Zeira. failed to activate “the In 1993, Zeira published his own ac- count, blaming the Mossad, the Israeli special means.” agency in charge of foreign espionage. He claimed the agency was duped by its top spy in Egypt—a close adviser “Forty years after it was first asked, to Egyptian president Anwar Sadat, the question still haunts the Israeli Ashraf Marwan, who was actually a public,” says Uri Bar-Joseph, a profes- double agent. sor of international relations at Haifa But most intelligence officers dismiss University, Israel. Writing in The Middle this account, saying Marwan did warn East Journal, he argues that Israel’s the Mossad. Bar-Joseph writes that “the leaders were betrayed by their faith wealth of information that has become in technology, in the form of a still- available in recent years” makes it plain secret tool called the “special means that Prime Minister Meir and other top of collection.” leaders had “ample warnings” of a strike, The Agranat Commission, convened but chose to disregard evidence from the after the war to investigate the fail- Mossad and other sources. ure, placed most of the blame at the Why? Bar-Joseph contends that they feet of Aman, Israel’s military intel- had a false sense of security based on ligence department, which was then possession of a top-secret technological the nation’s only source of intelligence trump card: the “special means of col- analysis. According to the commission, lection.” According to a source cited by Aman analysts and higher-ups clung Bar-Joseph, the “special means of col- with a “persistent adherence” to their lection,” which remains classified, was assumption that Egypt wouldn’t go to a “series of battery-operated devices at- war until it gained long-range fighter tached to phone and cable connections planes capable of destroying the Israeli buried deep in the sand outside Cairo.” Air Force, and Scud missiles to deter They reportedly allowed Israel not only THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2014 N ESSENCE I to eavesdrop on telephone and cable morning of October 6. But by then it traffic, but to listen in on conversations was too late. occurring in rooms “where the tele- Zeira never informed his superiors phones and telex consoles were located.” that he failed to activate “the special OTHER NATIONS Meir and Minister of Defense Moshe means,” and may even have deceived Dayan were certain the “special means them. Dayan and IDF chief of staff Ela- of collection” would alert them to any zar believed they had been switched on Arab moves. and had merely produced no actionable Unbeknownst to Meir and Dayan, intelligence. It wasn’t until the Agranat however, the eavesdropping devices were Commission’s investigation that the turned off. “A few months before the out- truth came out, but much of the testi- break of the war,” Bar-Joseph explains, mony has only recently been released. “one of the ‘special means’ accidentally “Why Zeira acted the way he did is fell into Egypt’s hands.” Worried about a mystery which is not likely to be fully exposing the other “means,” officials de- solved,” writes Bar-Joseph. A psycholog- cided to limit their use and placed the ical study suggests that the intelligence sole authorization to activate them in head had little tolerance for ambiguity the hands of military intelligence chief and a very high degree of confidence in Zeira. When the Egyptian army began Israel’s military superiority, which may a military exercise on October 1, many have convinced him not to activate the in the Israeli military and intelligence “special means.” But neither the study agencies began to worry—the Egyp- nor the new material from the Agranat tians’ Soviet backers had used the same Commission can offer anything but cover to launch their 1968 invasion of incomplete explanations for Zeira’s re- Czechoslovakia. Though these officers markable failure to play the ace up Is- repeatedly begged Zeira to activate the rael’s sleeve—and his failure to prepare “special means,” he refused, until the a nation for war. n THE WILSON QUARTERLY WINTER 2014.
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