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Cyber, Intelligence, and Security Cyber, Intelligence, and Security Volume 3 | No. 1 | May 2019 European Countries Facing the Challenge of Foreign Influence on Democracy—Comparative Research David Siman-Tov and Mor Buskila The Threat of Foreign Interference in the 2019 Elections in Israel and Ways of Handling it Pnina Shuker and Gabi Siboni The INF Treaty and New START: Escalation Control, Strategic Fatalism, and the Role of Cyber Stephen J. Cimbala Iranian Cyber Capabilities: Assessing the Threat to Israeli Financial and Security Interests Sam Cohen Outsourcing in Intelligence and Defense Agencies: A Risk of an Increase in the Proliferation of Cyber Weapons? Omree Wechsler The Academization of Intelligence: A Comparative Overview of Intelligence Studies in the West Kobi Michael and Aaron Kornbluth Forty-Five Years Since the Yom Kippur War: Intelligence and Risk Management in the Thirty Hours Preceding the War Shmuel Even National Cyber Security in Israel Yigal Unna Cyber, Intelligence, and Security Volume 3 | No. 1 | May 2019 Contents European Countries Facing the Challenge of Foreign Influence on Democracy—Comparative Research | 3 David Siman-Tov and Mor Buskila The Threat of Foreign Interference in the 2019 Elections in Israel and Ways of Handling it | 27 Pnina Shuker and Gabi Siboni The INF Treaty and New START: Escalation Control, Strategic Fatalism, and the Role of Cyber | 41 Stephen J. Cimbala Iranian Cyber Capabilities: Assessing the Threat to Israeli Financial and Security Interests | 71 Sam Cohen Outsourcing in Intelligence and Defense Agencies: A Risk of an Increase in the Proliferation of Cyber Weapons? | 95 Omree Wechsler The Academization of Intelligence: A Comparative Overview of Intelligence Studies in the West | 117 Kobi Michael and Aaron Kornbluth Forty-Five Years Since the Yom Kippur War: Intelligence and Risk Management in the Thirty Hours Preceding the War | 141 Shmuel Even National Cyber Security in Israel | 167 Yigal Unna The purpose of Cyber, Intelligence, and Security is to stimulate Cyber, and enrich the public debate on related issues. Intelligence, Cyber, Intelligence, and Security is a refereed journal published three times a year within the framework of the and Security Cyber Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies. Articles are written by INSS researchers and guest contributors. The views presented here are those of the authors alone. The Institute for National Security Studies is a public benefit company. Editor in Chief: Amos Yadlin Editor: Gabi Siboni Journal Coordinators: Hadas Klein and Gal Perl Finkel Editorial Advisory Board • Myriam Dunn Cavelty, Swiss Federal International Corporation, US Institute of Technology Zurich, Switzerland • James Lewis, Center for Strategic and • Frank J. Cilluffo, George Washington International Studies, US University, US • Kobi Michael, The Institute for National • Stephen J. Cimbala, Penn State Security Studies, Israel University, US • Theo Neethling, University of the Free • Rut Diamint, Universidad Torcuato Di State, South Africa Tella, Argentina • John Nomikos, Research Institute for • Maria Raquel Freire, University of European and American Studies, Greece Coimbra, Portugal • T.V. Paul, McGill University, Canada • Peter Viggo Jakobson, Royal Danish • Glen Segell, Securitatem Vigilate, Ireland Defence College, Denmark • Bruno Tertrais, Fondation pour la • Sunjoy Joshi, Observer Research Recherché Strategique, France Foundation, India • James J. Wirtz, Naval Postgraduate • Efraim Karsh, King’s College London, School, US United Kingdom • Ricardo Israel Zipper, Universidad • Kai Michael Kenkel, Pontifical Catholic Autónoma de Chile, Chile University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil • Daniel Zirker, University of Waikato, • Jeffrey A. Larsen, Science Applications New Zealand Graphic Design: Michal Semo-Kovetz, Yael Bieber, Tel Aviv University Graphic Design Studio Printing: Elinir The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) 40 Haim Levanon • POB 39950 • Tel Aviv 6997556 • Israel Tel: +972-3-640-0400 • Fax: +972-3-744-7590 • E-mail: [email protected] Cyber, Intelligence, and Security is published in English and Hebrew. The full text is available on the Institute’s website: www.inss.org.il © 2019. All rights reserved. ISSN 2519-6677 (print) • E-ISSN 2519-6685 (online) European Countries Facing the Challenge of Foreign Influence on Democracy—Comparative Research David Siman-Tov and Mor Buskila Attempts by countries to influence other countries constitute a security challenge and a threat to democracy. European countries have identified this challenge as a threat to national security and are dealing with it through government actions, civilian activity, and cooperation between countries, reflecting different approaches and proposed solutions to the problem. This article seeks to examine the various methods that the major European countries are using to cope with this challenge and to assess the differences between them by means of their political culture. In addition, this article shows the differences resulting from the strength and type of threat. Thus, it will be possible to speculate about the possibilities and the limits of implementing different coping approaches according to their political-cultural character and whether these approaches can be applied in other countries, including Israel. Keywords: Europe, Russia, influence, coping strategy, political culture, the battle for minds, democracy Dudi Siman-Tov researches the field of cognition at INSS. Mor Buskila is a research assistant in the Lipkin-Shahak Program “National Security and Democracy in an Era of Post-Truth and Fake News” at INSS. Cyber, Intelligence, and Security | Volume 3 | No. 1 | May 2019 3 DAVID SIMAN-TOV AND MOR BUSKILA | European COUNTRIES Facing THE CHALLENGE 4 Introduction The international community increasingly has begun to address efforts to exert influence in the digital and network age, particularly following the exposure of Russian attempts to sway the US elections in 2016 as well as their efforts to have influence in many European countries. Attempts to influence are defined as activating the dialogue on values, cultures, and ideas using various tools—including social media and traditional media—in order | Volume 3 | No. 1 | May 2019 3 | No. 1 May | Volume to change public opinion, disrupt, interfere with processes, and undermine stability.1 Campaigns of disinformation and manipulation of political and public debate are intended to deepen social rifts, intensify internal and external tensions, undermine public trust in government institutions, and affect strategic decisions or election results in favor of the interests of those behind the campaigns.2 This research focuses on different European states in order to understand Cyber, Intelligence, and Security Intelligence, Cyber, how they address at the national level efforts to exert influence, which has developed with technological advancements, the rise of social media, and the undermining of the notion of truth. This article does not deal with attempts to influence by individual agents, formal foreign policy, the use of economic tools or demonstrations of military power. Rather, it focuses on efforts to affect cognition by the streaming of information that is false, designed to influence, while using social media as an arena in which new conflicts are conducted. It should be noted that the European states all face different types of threats and challenges. Countries that are geographically closer to Russia have experienced a more significant strategic threat, while Russian-speaking communities have been more exposed to direct influence, and others have experienced a combination of internal and external threats. Specifically, this research focuses on those countries that are fertile ground for Russian influence, the threats that they face, how they cope with them, and how to explain the differences in methods of coping between the countries. We considered a wide range of objectives and parameters, such as the country’s geopolitical conditions, its geopolitical proximity to Russia and 1 Naja Bentzen, “Foreign Influence Operations in the EU,” EPRS – European Parliamentary Research Service, July 2018, p. 1, https://bit.ly/2ORBBuI. 2 Andrew Weisburd, Clint Watts, and J.M. Berger, “Trolling for Trump: How Russia is Trying to Destroy our Democracy,” War on the Rocks, November 6, 2016, https:// bit.ly/2iyw0fU. DAVID SIMAN-TOV AND MOR BUSKILA | European COUNTRIES Facing THE CHALLENGE 5 to its strategic routes, the existence of a Russian minority within the country and its connection to Russia, ideological competition, economic interests, and the unique political culture of each. The countries can be divided into three groups: the Baltic states of Estonia, and Latvia; the Nordic states of Sweden and Denmark; and the Western European states of Germany, France, and Britain. This regional division also facilitates the political-cultural research, which indicates shared values of the countries within each group. | Volume 3 | No. 1 | May 2019 3 | No. 1 May | Volume Methodological Background In order to answer the research questions, we have relied on concepts that serve the course of the debate as well as on several research approaches, since the ways in which the threats are perceived in Europe differ from that of the United States or Israel. An important concept used in this research is that of “political culture.” Political culture refers to the collection of values, emotions, and perceptions that reflect the nature of a country’s political
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