ANTONY ANTONIOU (OSINT Security Analyst)

EUROPEAN INTELLIGENCE ACADEMY (EIA) E-BOOK No. 1, MAY 2013 ANTONY ANTONIOU (OSINT Security Analyst) OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION, THE FUTURE OF INTELLIGENCE Copyright: Research Institute for European and American Studies (RIEAS) EUROPEAN INTELLIGENCE ACADEMY E-BOOK No. 1 MAY 2013 OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION, THE FUTURE OF INTELLIGENCE ANTONY ANTONIOU (OSINT Security Analyst) Preface. People from ancient times to our days had understood the importance of information and the significant role that valid information can play in all fields of human activities (politics, economy, during wars etc). References to spies, and their methods – techniques and means that they used can be found in historical texts from antiquity until today, also known theorists of war have addressed and reported (in their writings), the importance of information and the necessity of an enemy misinformation (we will mention two of them of Carl Von Clausewitz1 and Sun - Tzu2). The intelligence services began to take shape during the Second World War. Pioneers at the “intelligence field” were the Germans (in espionage, cryptography - cryptology, propaganda and generally speaking at the development of the appropriate techniques – methods and instruments – means), followed by British. Americans because of their non-participation in the war had left behind in the development of techniques and means for collecting and processing information. This changed after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor3 and the American entry into the war4. The USA intelligence 1 Carl Philipp Gottfried von Clausewitz (1 July 1780 – 16 November 1831): was a German-Prussian soldier and military theorist who stressed the "moral" (in modern terms, psychological) and political aspects of war. His most notable work, “Vom Kriege”, (On War), was unfinished at his death. 2 Sun Tzu or Sunzi: was an ancient Chinese military general, strategist and philosopher from the Zhou Dynasty. He is traditionally believed to be the author of “The Art of War”, an extremely influential ancient Chinese book on military strategy. Sun Tzu has had a significant impact on Chinese and Asian history and culture, both as an author of The Art of War and through legend, his work continues to influence both Asian and Western culture and politics. 3 The surprise attack leads by the Japanese on 7 December of 1941, except from triggering America's entry into the war had also revealed a significant failure on the part of the U.S. intelligence apparatus. Investigations fad sawn that intelligence had been handled in a casual, uncoordinated manner, and there had been insufficient attention to certain collection requirements. The lack of coordination among intelligence agencies, (principally the Army and the Navy), caused a failure to provide timely dissemination of relevant information to key decision – makers. This has lead to the establishment of a more centralized intelligence structure(after the WW II ended). 4 In July 1941, in response to William J. Donovan* urging, Roosevelt appointed Donovan as Coordinator of Information to form a non-military intelligence organization. The Coordinator of Information was to "collect and analyze all information and data which may bear upon the national security" for the President and those he designated. The Coordinator was given the authority, "with the approval of the President," to request data from other agencies and departments, but was specifically admonished not to interfere with the duties and responsibilities of the President's military and naval advisers. Borrowing heavily from the British intelligence model, Donovan created a special staff to pull together and analyze all national security information and empanelled an eight-member review board, drawn from academia, to review analysis and test its conclusions. In concert with the Librarian of Congress, COI Donovan organized the Division of Special Information at the Library, to work with Donovan's analytical staff and to coordinate scholarship within the Library and in academia. * William J. Donovan, was an aficionado of intelligence and a veteran of World War I, whom Roosevelt sent to Europe in 1940 to gather information on the stability of Britain and again in the spring of 1941 to gather information on Italian Dictator Mussolini, among other matters. Upon his return, Donovan lobbied hard for the creation of a centralized, civilian intelligence apparatus to complement that of the military. 2 capacity (both military and civilian) was developed during the war5. In the aftermath of World War II6, with the Cold War looming on the horizon, the United States began the process of developing an elaborate peacetime intelligence structure that would extend across a number of governmental services and agencies7. After the end of WW II and during the Cold War era the world was divided into two "spheres of influence”, countries which “bound” to the American “bandwagon” and those which “bound” to the former Soviet Union “bandwagon”. Thus began a struggle between Western and Eastern intelligence services and agencies about which will prevail. This struggle became more and more intense, rapid technological development have led to the development of new techniques – methods and means of collecting intelligence and the search for countermeasures to deal with them, thousands of man hours, and trillions have been wasted in the effort of prevalence. While it has had various incarnations over the years, intelligence has historically played a key role in providing support to the military forces and also shaping the foreign policies towards other countries for both USA and former Soviet Union (and their allies). The competition between the two coalitions (North Atlantic Treaty Organization – NATO and Warsaw Pact8), lasted from the decade of 1950 to 1990 (it peaked in the decade of 1980, during the presidency of Ronald Wilson Reagan9).). The technological development has led to the emergence of new intelligence services – agencies and intelligence disciplines (such as ELINT, SIGINT, GEOINT, etc). Another key point to the intelligence evolution and transformation, (by adapting to new developments and upcoming threats), took place from late 1989 to 1995. Three years after the Presidents Bush election, profound changes emerged all over the world. Those changes have had enormous impacts on the Intelligence Community through out the world. The “Trigger event” of those changes was the fall of 1989, the Berlin Wall “breaking”10, this lead Germany to begin the 5 America's entrance into WW II created an immediate need for intelligence. Although the Army and the Navy maintained their own intelligence organizations, none were prepared to provide the kind of intelligence effort needed. To bolster this effort, in June 1942 the Office of Strategic Services (OSS) was created under the recently established Joint Chiefs of Staff to succeed in the Information Coordination effort. William Donovan remained in charge of the reorganized unit. In addition to assuming the analytical role of its predecessor, the OSS was chartered to carry out clandestine operations against the Axis powers on a worldwide scale. Despite it’s obvious utility, the new Service faced strong competition from the FBI and the Army's intelligence organization. 6 The end of the war automatically caused a reduction in the immediate needs for intelligence, a vigorous and heated debate ensued between those who favoured the Donovan idea of an independent, civilian intelligence organization reporting directly to the President and those who favoured retention and control of intelligence by the military. 7 The National Security Act of 1947, signed into law by President Harry S. Truman established the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), headed by the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI), who was given the responsibility of coordinating all the agencies and services of US national intelligence community. It is the descendant of the Office of Strategic Services (OSS) of World War II, which was dissolved in October 1945 and its functions transferred to the State and War Departments. The National Security Act of 1947 had also established both the National Security Council and the Central Intelligence Agency. Rear Admiral Roscoe H. Hillenkoetter was appointed as the first Director of Central Intelligence. 8 The Warsaw Treaty Organization of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance (1955–1991), was a mutual defense treaty between eight communist states of Central and Eastern Europe in existence during the Cold War. The founding treaty was established under the initiative of the Soviet Union and signed on 14 May 1955, in Warsaw. The Warsaw Pact was the military complement to the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CoMEcon), the regional economic organization for the communist states of Central and Eastern Europe. The Warsaw Pact was a Soviet military reaction to the integration of West Germany into NATO in 1955, per the Paris Pacts of 1954. 9 The US President Ronald Reagan, had made the revitalization of intelligence part of his campaign. Intelligence budgets were increased, and new personnel were hired. On 4 December 1981, President Reagan issued his Executive Order on Intelligence. With this E.O he managed to reaffirmed the functions of intelligence agencies and continued most of the previous restrictions, but it set a more positive tone than its predecessor. He also gave to the CIA greater latitude to gather foreign intelligence within the United States and to provide assistance to law enforcement. 10 The

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