The Boundary-Spanning Mechanisms of Nobel Prize Winning Papers Yakub Sebastian1,* and Chaomei Chen2 1College of Engineering, IT & Environment, Charles Darwin University, Australia 2College of Computing & Informatics, Drexel University, USA *Corresponding author: Yakub Sebastian,
[email protected] Abstract The breakthrough potentials of research papers can be explained by their boundary-spanning qualities. Here, for the first time, we apply the structural variation analysis (SVA) model and its affiliated metrics to investigate the extent to which such qualities characterize a group of No- bel Prize winning papers. We find that these papers share remarkable boundary-spanning traits, marked by exceptional abilities to connect disparate and topically-diverse clusters of research pa- pers. Further, their publications exert structural variations on the scale that significantly alters the betweenness centrality distributions of existing intellectual space. Overall, SVA not only provides a set of leading indicators for describing future Nobel Prize winning papers, but also broadens our understanding of the similar prize-winning properties that may have been overlooked among other regular publications. 1 Introduction 1.1 Background The prospect of discovering methods and metrics for explaining and predicting breakthrough sci- entific papers, such as the Nobel Prize winning papers, continues to fuel some of the most con- sequential studies into the science of science research [Zuckerman, 1967, Garfield and Malin, 1968, Ashton and Oppenheim, 1978, Chen et al., 2009, Chen, 2012, Uzzi et al., 2013, Mukherjee et al., 2017, Ma and Uzzi, 2018, Schneider and Costas, 2017, Clauset et al., 2017, Li et al., 2019a, Min et al., 2021]. On one hand, predicting significant scientific achievements is a challenging enterprise as an increasing number of studies have revealed the unpredictable nature of scientific success [Mallapaty, 2018].