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Strategy-Policy Mismatch How the U.S CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Support RAND Purchase this document Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Arroyo Center View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that ad- dress the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for re- search quality and objectivity. C O R P O R A T I O N Strategy-Policy Mismatch How the U.S. Army Can Help Close Gaps in Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Timothy M. Bonds, Eric V. Larson, Derek Eaton, Richard E. Darilek ARROYO CENTER Strategy-Policy Mismatch How the U.S. Army Can Help Close Gaps in Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Timothy M. Bonds, Eric V. Larson, Derek Eaton, Richard E. Darilek Prepared for the United States Army Approved for public release; distribution unlimited For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/rr541 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN 978-0-8330-8631-0 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2014 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Two successive presidents have determined that weapons of mass destruction (WMD)— particularly nuclear weapons in the hands of violent extremists—pose the greatest of threats to the American people. Accordingly, the Department of Defense (DoD) has named countering WMD as a primary mission of the U.S. military. However, DoD does not consider the counter-WMD mission important enough to drive military capacity and capability in this regard—i.e., force size and structure. It permits a potentially critical gap to exist between the importance of countering WMD, as expressed in national strategy, and the actual policy for resources, which dictates force size and structure, as prioritized in the Defense Strategic Guidance. The research reported here addresses the following questions: How can this national strategy–resource policy gap be closed? How much ground force capacity, as well as what joint capabilities, will be needed to achieve gap closure, at least to greater degrees than at present? In particular, how can the U.S. Army help—especially, with one critical counter-WMD mission, namely, WMD-elimination (WMD-E)? To address these questions, this report provides a parametric analysis of several illustrative scenarios—using publicly available sources and methods—to assess the magnitude of any required changes to force size and structure. As for specific exam- ples, two especially salient cases are analyzed: (1) operations to secure loose WMD in the event that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) collapses, and (2) a counterfactual scenario in which U.S. operations were ordered to eliminate the Syrian chemical weapons program in the wake of a Syrian regime collapse. The analyses contained within this report were completed in 2013. This report results from the RAND Corporation’s Investment in People and Ideas program. Sup- port for this program is provided, in part, by donors and by the independent research and development provisions of RAND’s contracts for the operation of its U.S. Depart- ment of Defense federally funded research and development centers. iii Contents Preface .................................................................................................iii Figures ................................................................................................ vii Tables ..................................................................................................ix Summary ..............................................................................................xi Acknowledgments ................................................................................. xxi Abbreviations ......................................................................................xxiii CHaptER ONE Introduction .......................................................................................... 1 Gap Between WMD Proliferation Threats and Resourcing Priorities .......................... 2 Past Counter-WMD and Potential Future WMD-E Operations ............................... 3 Illustrative WMD-E Scenarios and Associated Ground Force Requirements ................. 4 Concluding Observations and Recommendations for DoD and the Army ................... 5 Appendixes ............................................................................................. 6 CHaptER TWO Gaps Between Countering WMD and Prioritizing Resources ............................. 7 National Strategy Documents: WMD Proliferation—The Greatest Threat .................. 7 Countering WMD—Ends, Ways, and Means ................................................... 10 National Security “Ends” ......................................................................... 10 Strategic “Ways”.................................................................................... 10 Resource Policy “Means”.......................................................................... 12 DoD and Army Investments in Doctrine and Organization ................................... 14 Doctrine ............................................................................................. 14 Organization—An Army-Centric Example ................................................... 15 Summary .............................................................................................. 17 CHaptER THREE Counter-WMD Missions and WMD-E Operations .......................................... 19 Counter-WMD Operations and Challenges in Iraq ............................................. 19 v vi Strategy-Policy Mismatch: Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Counter-WMD in Future Operations ............................................................. 23 Syria ................................................................................................. 23 North Korea ........................................................................................ 24 Potential Adversary Actions ...................................................................... 25 Notional Counter-WMD Operations in Failed States ........................................ 31 Implications for Force Capability Requirements ............................................... 33 Mission Success Metrics .......................................................................... 36 Culminating Counter-WMD Operations: The WMD-E Mission ............................. 38 WMD-E TF Design .............................................................................. 38 Estimating the Duration of the WMD-E Mission ............................................ 39 Summary .............................................................................................. 40 CHaptER FOUR Illustrative WMD-E Scenarios and Ground Force Requirements ......................... 41 General Case: Overview and Summary of WMD-E Force Requirements .................... 42 Potential Contribution of Coalition Partner Forces ........................................... 46 WMD-E Assault Aviation Requirements ....................................................... 47 WMD-E Chemical Unit Requirements
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