Western Policy Towards Syria: Applying Lessons Learned Contents
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Syria: What Reforms While a Storm Is Building?
Policy+Alternatives, 15th April 2006 Syria: What Reforms While a Storm is Building? → Samir El Aita Syria underwent profound changes since 2005 in its regional and international positioning, as well as in its internal political situation. This policy brief discusses the domestic prospects for change and the potential for reforms and analyzes the impact of regional and international developments on the domestic situation. For the first time in decades, Syrian public opinion is critical of its authorities’ role in Lebanon, with the majority holding them responsible for the situation there. The economic situation has deteriorated to levels dangerous for social stability. Direct criticism of the President and his team by the business community is unprecedented. The opposition overcame its weaknesses and political and civil society movements signed the “Damascus Declaration” calling openly for peaceful “regime change”. The prospects for peaceful change depend on the findings of the UN investigation commission over the assassination of former Prime Minister of Lebanon Hariri, the ability of the opposition to propose a platform to demonstrate to the Syrian public that change will not lead to chaos; and the ability of the “power system” to respond intelligently to the combination of international pressures and internal challenges on the economic, social and political front. 2 Syria: What Reforms While a Storm is Building? About the author Samir El Aita General Director of Mafhoum (Concept) and Le Monde Diplomatique - Arabic Edition About Arab Reform Initiative The Arab Reform Initiative is the leading independent Arab think tank working with expert partners in the Middle East and North Africa and beyond to articulate a home-grown agenda for democratic change. -
The United States and Russian Governments Involvement in the Syrian Crisis and the United Nations’ Kofi Annan Peace Process
ISSN 2039-2117 (online) Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences Vol 5 No 27 ISSN 2039-9340 (print) MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy December 2014 The United States and Russian Governments Involvement in the Syrian Crisis and the United Nations’ Kofi Annan Peace Process Ken Ifesinachi Ph.D Professor of Political Science, University of Nigeria [email protected] Raymond Adibe Department of Political Science, University of Nigeria [email protected] Doi:10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n27p1154 Abstract The inability of the Syrian government to internally manage the popular uprising in the country have increased international pressure on Syria as well as deepen international efforts to resolve the crisis that has developed into a full scale civil war. It was the need to end the violent conflict in Syria that informed the appointment of Kofi Annan as the U.N-Arab League Special Envoy to Syria on February 23, 2012. This study investigates the U.S and Russian governments’ involvement in the Syrian crisis and the UN Kofi Annan peace process. The two persons’ Zero-sum model of the game theory is used as our framework of analysis. Our findings showed that the divergence on financial and military support by the U.S and Russian governments to the rival parties in the Syrian conflict contradicted the mandate of the U.N Security Council that sanctioned the Annan plan and compromised the ceasefire agreement contained in the plan which resulted in the escalation of violent conflict in Syria during the period the peace deal was supposed to be in effect. The implication of the study is that the success of any U.N brokered peace deal is highly dependent on the ability of its key members to have a consensus, hence, there is need to galvanize a comprehensive international consensus on how to tackle the Syrian crisis that would accommodate all crucial international actors. -
The Syrian National Council: a Victorious Opposition?
THE INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST STUDIES IMES CAPSTONE PAPER SERIES THE SYRIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL: A VICTORIOUS OPPOSITION? JARED MARKLAND KRITTIKA LALWANEY MAY 2012 THE INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST STUDIES THE ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY COPYRIGHT OF THE AUTHOR(S), 2012 THE SYRIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL: A VICTORIOUS OPPOSITION? Jared Markland & Krittika Lalwaney Introduction The Syrian National Council (SNC) emerged as an opposition movement representing the democratic uprisings in Syria calling for regime change. The Assad regime’s forceful measures against Syrians have delegitimized the government and empowered the revolution. The success of the revolution, in overthrowing the regime hinges on the Syrian opposition’s ability to overcome its deficiencies. This paper analyzes the performance of the SNC by determining SNC success or failure to launch a successful opposition movement against the regime. The SNC’s probability of success in the overthrow of the regime is contingent on its ability to unify internally, obtain financial capacity, establish international recognition, and build internal popular support. Methodology The methods used to examine the prospects for success of the SNC as a viable opposition movement consist of comparative case studies and qualitative field research. We examined four case studies, including Nicaragua, Libya, El Salvador and Guatemala. These cases establish a set of core factors necessary for an opposition movement to succeed. The utilization of these factors allows us to create a comparative assessment of the overall performance of the SNC. Our qualitative fieldwork entailed a total of 32 interviews with current SNC members, Syrian activists, refugees, Free Syrian Army members, academic experts, and government officials. -
Syria: "Torture Was My Punishment": Abductions, Torture and Summary
‘TORTURE WAS MY PUNISHMENT’ ABDUCTIONS, TORTURE AND SUMMARY KILLINGS UNDER ARMED GROUP RULE IN ALEPPO AND IDLEB, SYRIA Amnesty International is a global movement of more than 7 million people who campaign for a world where human rights are enjoyed by all. Our vision is for every person to enjoy all the rights enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other international human rights standards. We are independent of any government, political ideology, economic interest or religion and are funded mainly by our membership and public donations. © Amnesty International 2016 Cover photo: Armed group fighters prepare to launch a rocket in the Saif al-Dawla district of the Except where otherwise noted, content in this document is licensed under a Creative Commons northern Syrian city of Aleppo, on 21 April 2013. (attribution, non-commercial, no derivatives, international 4.0) licence. © Miguel Medina/AFP/Getty Images https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode For more information please visit the permissions page on our website: www.amnesty.org Where material is attributed to a copyright owner other than Amnesty International this material is not subject to the Creative Commons licence. First published in 2016 by Amnesty International Ltd Peter Benenson House, 1 Easton Street London WC1X 0DW, UK Index: MDE 24/4227/2016 July 2016 Original language: English amnesty.org CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 METHODOLOGY 7 1. BACKGROUND 9 1.1 Armed group rule in Aleppo and Idleb 9 1.2 Violations by other actors 13 2. ABDUCTIONS 15 2.1 Journalists and media activists 15 2.2 Lawyers, political activists and others 18 2.3 Children 21 2.4 Minorities 22 3. -
Squaring the Circles in Syria's North East
Squaring the Circles in Syria’s North East Middle East Report N°204 | 31 July 2019 Headquarters International Crisis Group Avenue Louise 149 • 1050 Brussels, Belgium Tel: +32 2 502 90 38 • Fax: +32 2 502 50 38 [email protected] Preventing War. Shaping Peace. Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... i I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 II. The Search for Middle Ground ......................................................................................... 3 A. The U.S.: Caught between Turkey and the YPG ........................................................ 3 1. Turkey: The alienated ally .................................................................................... 4 2. “Safe zone” or dead end? The buffer debate ........................................................ 8 B. Moscow’s Missed Opportunity? ................................................................................. 11 C. The YPG and Damascus: Playing for Time ................................................................ 13 III. A War of Attrition with ISIS Remnants ........................................................................... 16 A. The SDF’s Approach to ISIS Detainees ..................................................................... 16 B. Deteriorating Relations between the SDF and Local Tribes .................................... -
American University of Beirut Detection of Fake News in the Syrian
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF BEIRUT DETECTION OF FAKE NEWS IN THE SYRIAN WAR by ROAA AL FEEL A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science to the Department of Computer Science of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at the American University of Beirut Beirut, Lebanon January 2019 Acknowledgements I would like to use this opportunity to express my gratitude to everyone who supported me throughout my masters study and through the process of research- ing and writing this thesis. I would like to express my deep and sincere gratitude to my advisor Dr. Fa- tima Abu Salem for giving me the opportunity to be involved in this research project and her invaluable guidance, patience, motivation, enthusiasm, and im- mense knowledge throughout this research. I am also grateful to the members of my thesis committee for all of their guidance throughout this process; your discussion, ideas, and feedback have been absolutely invaluable. I would also like to thank my friends at AUB who have shared this experience with me for all the fun we have had in this journey. And last but by no means least, I am extremely grateful to my parents and brother for all the love, support, and constant encouragement they have provided me with throughout my years of study. This accomplishment would not have been possible without you all. Thank you. v An Abstract of the Thesis of Roaa Al Feel for Master of Science Major: Computer Science Title: Detection of Fake News in the Syrian War After almost eight years of conflict, the humanitarian situation in Syria con- tinues to deteriorate year after year. -
RELATIONSHIP THERAPY RELATIONSHIP THERAPY Making Arab Police Reform Work
CHAILLOT PAPER / PAPER CHAILLOT 160 RELATIONSHIP THERAPY RELATIONSHIP THERAPY RELATIONSHIP Making Arab police reform work | MAKING ARAB POLICE REFORM WORK REFORM POLICE ARAB MAKING By Florence Gaub and Alex Walsh CHAILLOT PAPER / 160 November 2020 RELATIONSHIP THERAPY Making Arab police reform work By Florence Gaub and Alex Walsh CHAILLOT PAPER / 160 November 2020 European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) 100, avenue de Suffren 75015 Paris http://www.iss.europa.eu Director: Gustav Lindstrom © EU Institute for Security Studies, 2020. Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated. The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union. print ISBN 978-92-9198-970-6 online ISBN 978-92-9198-969-0 CATALOGUE NUMBER QN-AA-20-004-EN-C CATALOGUE NUMBER QN-AA-20-004-EN-N ISSN 1017-7566 ISSN 1683-4917 DOI 10.2815/645771 DOI 10.2815/791794 Published by the EU Institute for Security Studies and printed in Belgium by Bietlot. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020. Cover image credit: Hussein Malla/AP/SIPA The authors Florence Gaub is the Deputy Director of the EUISS. She specialises in strategic foresight, as well as security and conflict in the Middle East and North Africa. Alex Walsh has worked on police reform and stabilisation programming in Lebanon, Jordan, Tunisia and Syria. He currently works with the International Security Sector Advisory Team (ISSAF) in Geneva. Acknowledgements This publication was informed by two events co-organised with the Konrad-Adenauer- Stiftung, the first in Tunis in December 2018, and the second in Amman in March 2019 The EUISS Chaillot Paper series The Chaillot Paper series, launched in 1991, takes its name from the Chaillot hill in the Trocadéro area of Paris, where the Institute’s first premises were located in the building oc- cupied by the Western European Union (WEU). -
Europe, Not the United States, Pays the Price of Failure in Syria Europe
Jadal ! ! ! October 2015 Europe, not the United States, pays the price of failure in Syria Bassma Kodmani* Russian President Putin has decided that Syria is part of Russia’s near abroad, no less than Ukraine it seems, a territory where some vital national interests are at stake. He has predicted the fecklessness of Western powers well. Whether he is deploying his arsenal in Syria to fight Daesh or to bolster Assad, by moving massive military presence into Syria he has made himself the one player that counts and has put himself in a position to call the shots. He does not have a strategy to end the conflict. But he has one that he thinks will guarantee Russia’s influence in this pivotal country while the West !has no strategy to confront him. Europeans have been waiting for American leadership on Syria for the last four years. Some were ready to move against Assad after he used chemical weapons against civilians. The French were most committed to Obama’s red line, but Kerry and Lavrov found a way out with the agreement on Assad’s chemical arsenal, which was welcomed by all as a relief. The fact that Assad was saved and his ability to continue striking remained intact was deemed regrettable, but European countries thought they could live with the problem. Daesh was a minor concern back then which a few brave fighters from the Free Syrian Army could deal with. But this inaction had consequences, which are now felt acutely across Europe. ! The debate in Europe has since revolved around all the “good reasons” for keeping Assad in place and containing the conflict. -
Reforming the Syrian Arab Army: Russia’S Vision Yury Barmin, RIAC
Discussion Paper (4) Reforming the Syrian Arab Army: Russia’s vision Yury Barmin, RIAC Discussion paper for the workshop on: “The emerging security dynamics and the political settlement in Syria”, Syracuse, Italy, 18-19 October 2018 1 The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) is an international foundation established in 1995, with 52-member states, for the primary purpose of promoting peace, security and international cooperation through executive education, applied policy research and dialogue. The GCSP trains government officials, diplomats, military officers, international civil servants and NGO and private sector staff in pertinent fields of international peace and security. Omran for Strategic Studies An independent think tank and policy centre focusing on presenting an objective understanding of Syria and the region to become a reference for public policies impacting the region. Omran began in November 2013 in Istanbul, Turkey. It publishes studies and policy briefs on Syrian and regional affairs in the areas of politics, economic development and local administration. Omran also conducts round-table discussions, seminars and workshops that promote a more systematic and methodical culture of decision making among the future leaders of Syria. Omran’s work supports decision-making mechanisms, provides practical solutions and policy recommendations to decision-makers, identifies challenges within the Syrian context, and foresees scenarios and alternative solutions. Yury Barmin Yury Barmin, is the Director for the Middle East and North Africa at MPG, a Moscow-based political consulting firm. He is a fellow at the Russian International Affairs Council covering the Middle East and North Africa, Moscow’s policy towards the region as well as the conflict in Syria. -
Hamas's Response to the Syrian Uprising Nasrin Akhter in a Recent
Hamas’s Response to the Syrian Uprising Nasrin Akhter In a recent interview with the pro-Syrian Al Mayadeen channel based in Beirut, the Hamas deputy chief, Mousa Abu Marzouk asserted in October 2013 that Khaled Meshaal was ‘wrong’ to have raised the flag of the Syrian revolution on his historic return to Gaza at the end of last year.1 While on the face of it, Marzouk’s comment may not in itself hold much significance, referring only to the literal act of raising the flag, an inadvertent error made during an exuberant rally in which a number of other flags were also raised, subsequent remarks by Marzouk during the course of the interview describing the Syrian state as the ‘beating heart of the Palestinian cause’ and acknowledging the previous ‘favour’ of the Syrian regime towards the movement2 may be more indicative of shift in Hamas’s position of open opposition towards the Asad regime. This raises the important question of whether we are now witnessing a third phase in Hamas’s response towards the Syrian Uprising. In the first stage of its response, a period lasting from the outbreak of hostilities in the southern city of Deraa in March 2011 until December 2011, Hamas’s position appeared to be one of constructive ambiguity, publicly refraining from condemning Syrian authorities, but studiously avoiding anything which could have been interpreted as an open act of support for the Syrian regime. Such a position clearly stemmed from Hamas’s own vulnerabilities, acting with caution for fear of exacting reprisals against the movement still operating out of Damascus. -
Syrian Foreign Policy and the United States: from Bush to Obama
SYRIAN FOREIGN POLICY AND THE UNITED STATES: FROM BUSH TO OBAMA By Raymond Hinnebusch, Marwan Kabalan, Bassma Kodmani and David Lesch St Andrews papers on Contemporary Syria, 2010 1 2 Syrian Foreign Policy Foreword Raymond Hinnebusch These four analyses look at Syrian foreign policy, and particularly the ups and downs in Syria’s relationship with the US since Bashar al-Asad and George W. Bush nearly simultaneously came to power. One of the most striking and puzzling aspects of this relation is why a Syrian leader keen to improve relations with the West was soon the object of a concerted attempt to demonize and isolate him. Arguably this had more to do with the American politics than with Syria and had Kerry won the 2000 US election US-Syrian relations would almost certainly have taken a much different tangent and the history of the Middle East would have turned out very differently. The focus of the analyses is however on what makes Syria tick and how this explains its strategies in dealing with the hostile, aggressive and powerful US under Bush. The analysis by Hinnebusch looks particularly at the continuities from the Hafiz period, showing how Syria was in the late nineties on course for a peace settlement with Israel under US auspices. The failure of the peace negotiations set entrain a series of moves and countermoves that contributed to a crisis in Syrian- US relations, with Iraq and Lebanon the foci of their clashing agendas. The article finishes with a look at the fresh start between the two states at the beginning of the Obama administration. -
Changing Regime Discourse and Reform in Syria
St Andrews Papers on Modern Syrian Studies Issue No 1, Autumn 2008 Changing Regime Discourse and Reform in Syria Aurora Sottimano and Selvik Kjetil Published by the Centre for Syrian Studies, University of St. Andrews, Fife, Scotland; Distributed by Lynne Rienner Press, Boulder, CO, USA ISBN: 978-0-9559687-1-6 2 Table of Contents: 1. Introduction: Changing Discourse under the Ba’th Raymond Hinnebusch 4 2. Ideology And Discourse in the Era of Ba’thist Reforms: 5 Towards an Analysis of Authoritarian Governmentality Aurora Sottimano 3. It’s the Mentality, Stupid: Syria’s Turn to the Private Sector 33 Kjetil Selvik 3 Introduction: Changing Discourse under the Ba’th By Raymond Hinnebusch Ideology and discourse enable us to chart, on one crucial level, the evolution of Syria’s political economy. Through it we are enabled to see the way material changes and constraints of the political economy, whether the outcomes of failed projects or new policies, are understood, promoted, and legitimatized. Aurora Sottimano shows that ideology matters and is an autonomous variable, especially in periods of change. In the Syrian Ba’th case, actors were ideologically driven at a certain point but in the consolidation of regimes, ideology becomes principally a hegemonic discourse meant to discipline social forces. Yet, it also constrains what can subsequently be advocated as legitimate; hence it tends to retard adaptation to material constraints in a sort of path dependency; still, when the gap between ideology and reality widens too much, ideology is modified, even reinvented to take account of constraints. Sottomano charts how the original Ba’thist discourse identified the obstacles to Syria’s development as backward traditional mentalities imperialism and feudal classes, and with the Ba’thist leaders seeing themselves as a vanguard mobilize workers and peasants to push development ahead.