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Syria: What Reforms While a Storm Is Building?
Policy+Alternatives, 15th April 2006 Syria: What Reforms While a Storm is Building? → Samir El Aita Syria underwent profound changes since 2005 in its regional and international positioning, as well as in its internal political situation. This policy brief discusses the domestic prospects for change and the potential for reforms and analyzes the impact of regional and international developments on the domestic situation. For the first time in decades, Syrian public opinion is critical of its authorities’ role in Lebanon, with the majority holding them responsible for the situation there. The economic situation has deteriorated to levels dangerous for social stability. Direct criticism of the President and his team by the business community is unprecedented. The opposition overcame its weaknesses and political and civil society movements signed the “Damascus Declaration” calling openly for peaceful “regime change”. The prospects for peaceful change depend on the findings of the UN investigation commission over the assassination of former Prime Minister of Lebanon Hariri, the ability of the opposition to propose a platform to demonstrate to the Syrian public that change will not lead to chaos; and the ability of the “power system” to respond intelligently to the combination of international pressures and internal challenges on the economic, social and political front. 2 Syria: What Reforms While a Storm is Building? About the author Samir El Aita General Director of Mafhoum (Concept) and Le Monde Diplomatique - Arabic Edition About Arab Reform Initiative The Arab Reform Initiative is the leading independent Arab think tank working with expert partners in the Middle East and North Africa and beyond to articulate a home-grown agenda for democratic change. -
The Arab Spring: an Empirical Investigation
Protests and the Arab Spring: An Empirical Investigation Tansa George Massoud, Bucknell University John A. Doces, Bucknell University Christopher Magee, Bucknell University Keywords: Arab Spring, protests, events data, political grievances, diffusion Acknowledgements: We would like to thank Polity’s editor-in-chief and anonymous reviewers for their comments. We also thank Emily Brandes for her valuable assistance. All errors remain our own. 1 Abstract This article discusses a variety of major explanations for the intensity of recent protests in Arab states and investigates whether there is empirical support for them. We survey various political, economic, and social factors and develop a comprehensive empirical model to estimate the structural determinants of protests in 19 Arab League states between 1990 and 2011, measured using events data. The results show that protests were stronger in countries with higher inflation, higher levels of corruption, lower levels of freedom, and more use of the internet and cell phones. Protests were also more frequent in countries with partial democracies and factional politics. We find no evidence for the common argument that the surge in protests in 2011 was linked to a bulge in the youth population. Overall, we conclude that these economic, political, and social variables help to explain which countries had stronger protest movements, but that they cannot explain the timing of those revolts. We suggest that a contagion model can help explain the quick spread of protests across the region in 2011, and we conduct a preliminary test of that possibility. 2 I. Introduction The Arab revolts started in Tunisia in December 2010 and spread across the Middle East and North Africa with great speed in early 2011.1 In Tunisia and Egypt, loosely organized groups using mostly nonviolent techniques managed to topple regimes that had been in power for decades. -
Tunisia's Law Against Racial Discrimination
Interview, 11th February 2021 Tunisia’s Law against Racial Discrimination: The Mixed Results of a Pioneering Legislation → Omar Fassatoui © Anadolu Images In 2018 Tunisia responded to repeated calls from its civil society by passing an organic law that penalizes racial discrimination. This legislation filled a legal void; it allows victims of racism to seek redress through the courts for verbal abuse or physical acts. Before 2018 there was no such law. Victims were thus doubly discriminated against, by being subjected to racism and to legislation that did not recognize racism for what it was. Although Tunisia ratified the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (ICERD) in 1967, it has passed no national law to transpose its provisions into Tunisian legislation. Organic Law 50-2018 is the first of its kind in North Africa and the Arab world. Racism against black people, whether Tunisian or foreign, has been common in Tunisia for a long time. However, it was not until the 2011 uprising and the country’s democratic transition that the victims of racism became visible: the events revealed societal problems suppressed by the previous regime, which had been in power since independence. The Bourguiba regime’s construction of “Tunisianness” in post-colonial Tunisia almost inevitably chose the approach of rejecting all other identities. Black or Amazigh identities, Jewish or Ibadi religious identities had to blend into the Sunni Arab-Muslim identity constructed by the state. The law on eliminating racial discrimination conveys the message that Tunisia’s legislature and society reject racism and confer upon those who are subjected to it the official status of victim. -
The Rise of Syria's Urban Poor
THE RISE OF SYRIA’S POOR The Rise of Syria’s Urban Poor: Why the War for Syria’s Future Will Be Fought Over the Country’s New Urban Villages BY DAVID KILCULLEN AND NATE ROSENBLATT The divisions between town and country or between the main cities and the country towns are very old social and cultural divisions and, historically, their interests have tended to be intrinsi- cally at variance. For long the peasants lived at the mercy of the cities. –Hanna Batatu Syria’s Peasantry, the Descendants of its Lesser Rural Notables, and Their Politics yria’s urban poor fight the Assad regime for the soul of Syria’s cities. Syrian government troops have abandoned large swaths of countryside to a fractured opposition, focusing Sresources on key loyalist leverage points: keeping connected the big four cities Aleppo, Damascus, Homs, and Hama, and maintaining a path to the coast. This intensely urban conflict is a byproduct of over ten years of rural village migrations into the outskirts of Syria’s ancient Men march during the funeral of Mohamed Ammar, who was killed by the Syrian Army in Al Qusayr, February 28, 2012 cities. Fueled by economic necessity and a persistent drought, these villagers created vast, insulated neighborhoods of urban poor. Three things characterize these communities: they are predomi- nantly controlled by the opposition, they have been among the hardest hit during the conflict, and their guns and recent political activism mean they will be a key power broker in the post- conflict order. Syria’s ancient cities long reigned over the surrounding villages. -
Syrians in the USA: Solidarity Despite Political Rifts
Research Paper, 5th December 2018 Syrians in the USA: Solidarity Despite Political Rifts → Basma Alloush © Jwan Khalaf Syrian Americans are among the highly integrated and economically successful immigrant groups within the United States. As a diverse body, originating from different ethnic, religious, educational, and regional backgrounds in Syria, the Syrian American diaspora has not been historically organized or active except for those within geographical proximity of one another. This, however, was transformed after the 2011 uprisings. Syrian Americans began forming institutions and organizations to represent their political views and reflect their interests in the Syrian conflict. Humanitarian assistance was the prevalent form of support provided but as the conflict escalated, political advocacy became a priority. This, in turn, deepened the divides among the diaspora groups as each party solidified their support to the various sides of the conflict. While the interests and engagement with the Syrian conflict differed greatly, the one common overarching interest was the diaspora’s increased activity in the United States, both among each other and with the various executive and legislative bodies of the U.S. government. While many diaspora members have a vested interest in remaining involved with the developments taking place on the ground in Syria, some have focused instead on U.S. policies towards Syria. This paper, based on original research and interviews with 10 members of the Syrian American diaspora, explores the dynamics of migration flows and how these changed with the onset of the Syrian conflict, as well as the emergence of organizational structures but also new lines of fractures. While the priorities of the Syrian American diaspore prove heterogenous, all participants in this study expressed a need, to varying degrees, for continued diaspora support in the transition and reconstruction of post-conflict Syria.1 1. -
Report Iraq: Travel Documents and Other Identity Documents
l Report Iraq: Travel documents and other identity documents Report Iraq: Travel documents and other identity documents LANDINFO –16DECEMBER 2015 1 About Landinfo’s reports The Norwegian Country of Origin Information Centre, Landinfo, is an independent body within the Norwegian Immigration Authorities. Landinfo provides country of origin information to the Norwegian Directorate of Immigration (Utlendingsdirektoratet – UDI), the Immigration Appeals Board (Utlendingsnemnda – UNE) and the Norwegian Ministry of Justice and Public Security. Reports produced by Landinfo are based on information from carefully selected sources. The information is researched and evaluated in accordance with common methodology for processing COI and Landinfo’s internal guidelines on source and information analysis. To ensure balanced reports, efforts are made to obtain information from a wide range of sources. Many of our reports draw on findings and interviews conducted on fact-finding missions. All sources used are referenced. Sources hesitant to provide information to be cited in a public report have retained anonymity. The reports do not provide exhaustive overviews of topics or themes, but cover aspects relevant for the processing of asylum and residency cases. Country of origin information presented in Landinfo’s reports does not contain policy recommendations nor does it reflect official Norwegian views. © Landinfo 2016 The material in this report is covered by copyright law. Any reproduction or publication of this report or any extract thereof other than as permitted by current Norwegian copyright law requires the explicit written consent of Landinfo. For information on all of the reports published by Landinfo, please contact: Landinfo Country of Origin Information Centre Storgata 33A P.O. -
Jihadism in Africa Local Causes, Regional Expansion, International Alliances
SWP Research Paper Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Guido Steinberg and Annette Weber (Eds.) Jihadism in Africa Local Causes, Regional Expansion, International Alliances RP 5 June 2015 Berlin All rights reserved. © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2015 SWP Research Papers are peer reviewed by senior researchers and the execu- tive board of the Institute. They express exclusively the personal views of the authors. SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Ludwigkirchplatz 34 10719 Berlin Germany Phone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-100 www.swp-berlin.org [email protected] ISSN 1863-1053 Translation by Meredith Dale (Updated English version of SWP-Studie 7/2015) Table of Contents 5 Problems and Recommendations 7 Jihadism in Africa: An Introduction Guido Steinberg and Annette Weber 13 Al-Shabaab: Youth without God Annette Weber 31 Libya: A Jihadist Growth Market Wolfram Lacher 51 Going “Glocal”: Jihadism in Algeria and Tunisia Isabelle Werenfels 69 Spreading Local Roots: AQIM and Its Offshoots in the Sahara Wolfram Lacher and Guido Steinberg 85 Boko Haram: Threat to Nigeria and Its Northern Neighbours Moritz Hütte, Guido Steinberg and Annette Weber 99 Conclusions and Recommendations Guido Steinberg and Annette Weber 103 Appendix 103 Abbreviations 104 The Authors Problems and Recommendations Jihadism in Africa: Local Causes, Regional Expansion, International Alliances The transnational terrorism of the twenty-first century feeds on local and regional conflicts, without which most terrorist groups would never have appeared in the first place. That is the case in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Syria and Iraq, as well as in North and West Africa and the Horn of Africa. -
Regulation, Trust, and Cronyism in Middle Eastern Societies: the Simple Economics of 'Wasta'
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Barnett, Andy; Yandle, Bruce; Naufal, George S. Working Paper Regulation, trust, and cronyism in Middle Eastern societies: The simple economics of 'wasta' IZA Discussion Papers, No. 7201 Provided in Cooperation with: IZA – Institute of Labor Economics Suggested Citation: Barnett, Andy; Yandle, Bruce; Naufal, George S. (2013) : Regulation, trust, and cronyism in Middle Eastern societies: The simple economics of 'wasta', IZA Discussion Papers, No. 7201, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/71609 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen -
Islamism After the Arab Spring: Between the Islamic State and the Nation-State the Brookings Project on U.S
Islamism after the Arab Spring: Between the Islamic State and the nation-state The Brookings Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World U.S.-Islamic World Forum Papers 2015 January 2017 Shadi Hamid, William McCants, and Rashid Dar The Brookings Institution is a nonprofit organization devoted to independent research and policy solutions. Its mission is to conduct high-quality, independent research and, based on that research, to provide in- novative, practical recommendations for policymakers and the public. The conclusions and recommendations of any Brookings publication are solely those of its author(s), and do not reflect the views of the Institu- tion, its management, or its other scholars. Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings Brookings recognizes that the value it provides to any supporter is in its absolute commitment to quality, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW independence and impact. Activities supported by its Washington, DC 20036 donors reflect this commitment and the analysis and recommendations are not determined by any donation. www.brookings.edu/islamic-world STEERING n 2015, we returned to Doha for the views of the participants of the work- COMMITTEE the 12th annual U.S.-Islamic World ing groups or the Brookings Institution. MArtiN INDYK Forum. Co-convened annually by Select working group papers will be avail- Executive Ithe Brookings Project on U.S. Relations able on our website. Vice President with the Islamic World and the State of Brookings Qatar, the Forum is the premier inter- We would like to take this opportunity BRUCE JONES national gathering of leaders in govern- to thank the State of Qatar for its sup- Vice President ment, civil society, academia, business, port in convening the Forum with us. -
Access to Information in the Arab World a Battle for Open Societies
October 2016 Access to Information in the Arab World A Battle for Open Societies www.arab-reform.net © Arab Reform Initiative 2016 October 2016 Contents Preface .......................................................................................................................... 1 Governments Challenged ............................................................................................ 2 Small Groups Can Make a Difference ......................................................................... 3 The State of Information in Egypt ................................................................................. 5 Jordan’s Access to Information Law: A Formality More than a Tangible Gain? .............. 7 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 7 The Current Law and Its Legal and Practical Restrictions ............................................... 8 Jordanian Organisations Working to Raise Awareness .................................................. 9 Reforms Needed for Greater Freedom of Information ................................................ 10 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 10 The State of Access to Information in Palestine .......................................................... 12 Legal Status of Access to Information: A Hodge-Podge of Rules and Exceptions ........ 12 Attempts to Ratify a Law .............................................................................................. -
International Protection Considerations with Regard to People Fleeing the Republic of Iraq
International Protection Considerations with Regard to People Fleeing the Republic of Iraq HCR/PC/ May 2019 HCR/PC/IRQ/2019/05 _Rev.2. INTERNATIONAL PROTECTION CONSIDERATIONS WITH REGARD TO PEOPLE FLEEING THE REPUBLIC OF IRAQ Table of Contents I. Executive Summary .......................................................................................... 6 1) Refugee Protection under the 1951 Convention Criteria and Main Categories of Claim .... 6 2) Broader UNHCR Mandate Criteria, Regional Instruments and Complementary Forms of Protection ............................................................................................................................. 7 3) Internal Flight or Relocation Alternative (IFA/IRA) .............................................................. 7 4) Exclusion Considerations .................................................................................................... 8 5) Position on Forced Returns ................................................................................................. 9 II. Main Developments in Iraq since 2017 ............................................................. 9 A. Political Developments ........................................................................................................... 9 1) May 2018 Parliamentary Elections ...................................................................................... 9 2) September 2018 Kurdistan Parliamentary Elections ......................................................... 10 3) October 2017 Independence -
A New Generation of Protests in Morocco? How Hirak Al-Rif Endures
Policy Alternatives, 7th November 2017 A New Generation of Protests in Morocco? How Hirak al-Rif Endures → Mohammed Masbah Protesters carrying the picture of Nasser Zafzafi, leader of Hirak al-Rif, and the Amazigh flag during a solidarity demonstration in the Rabat, Morocco, June 2017 © Abdelhak Senna / EPA In October 2016, in the oft-neglected mountainous region of northwestern Morocco, a new popular protest movement, Hirak al-Rif, emerged. In line with the February 20 Movement in 2011, Hirak al-Rif represents a new wave of mass mobilization against the ruling authority. Though initially marked by intermittent peaceful protests, the movement escalated in summer 2017, during the month of Ramadan, following the arrests of numerous activists, including the movement’s leader Nasser Zafzafi. This repression of peaceful protests risks diverse consequences, including the further escalation of the situation and the radicalization of the movement, as well as a transformation of political demands and potential calls for separatism. At first glance, Hirak al-Rif appears to be a continuation of the February 20 Movement, particularly with respect to the shared underlying grievances of the two movements. Both are the result of social and political tensions, high unemployment rates as well as the prevalence of corruption throughout the government. However, in-depth analysis of the two movements brings to light several key differences. Hirak al-Rif’s concentration in a defined geographical area and its durability, despite the repressive approach adopted by the authorities, marks a significant difference from the February 20 Movement, whose activities began to dissolve only a few months after they began.