The United States and Russian Governments Involvement in the Syrian Crisis and the United Nations’ Kofi Annan Peace Process

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

The United States and Russian Governments Involvement in the Syrian Crisis and the United Nations’ Kofi Annan Peace Process ISSN 2039-2117 (online) Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences Vol 5 No 27 ISSN 2039-9340 (print) MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy December 2014 The United States and Russian Governments Involvement in the Syrian Crisis and the United Nations’ Kofi Annan Peace Process Ken Ifesinachi Ph.D Professor of Political Science, University of Nigeria [email protected] Raymond Adibe Department of Political Science, University of Nigeria [email protected] Doi:10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n27p1154 Abstract The inability of the Syrian government to internally manage the popular uprising in the country have increased international pressure on Syria as well as deepen international efforts to resolve the crisis that has developed into a full scale civil war. It was the need to end the violent conflict in Syria that informed the appointment of Kofi Annan as the U.N-Arab League Special Envoy to Syria on February 23, 2012. This study investigates the U.S and Russian governments’ involvement in the Syrian crisis and the UN Kofi Annan peace process. The two persons’ Zero-sum model of the game theory is used as our framework of analysis. Our findings showed that the divergence on financial and military support by the U.S and Russian governments to the rival parties in the Syrian conflict contradicted the mandate of the U.N Security Council that sanctioned the Annan plan and compromised the ceasefire agreement contained in the plan which resulted in the escalation of violent conflict in Syria during the period the peace deal was supposed to be in effect. The implication of the study is that the success of any U.N brokered peace deal is highly dependent on the ability of its key members to have a consensus, hence, there is need to galvanize a comprehensive international consensus on how to tackle the Syrian crisis that would accommodate all crucial international actors. We recommended that there is need for a negotiated solution that will involve a compromise agreement by the conflicting parties on the basis of mutual consent since the zero-sum nature of the Syrian conflict in which both regime and its opponents seek total victory make political settlement elusive. Keywords: Annan Peace Process, Syrian Crisis, Strategic Interest, UN Security Council, Zero-Sum Game 1. Introduction Since taking office in 2000, President Bashir al-Assad has offered and retracted the prospect of limited political reform in Syria despite the serious socio-economic and political challenges that the nation of Syria face. As noted by Sharp and Blanchard (2012B), some of these challenges which include high unemployment, high inflation, limited upward mobility, rampant corruption, lack of political freedom, and repressive security forces have fuelled persistent opposition to the Syrian authoritarian government. As unrest emerged in other Arab countries in early 2011, limited calls for organized reform protests in Syria failed, but the government torture of children involved in an isolated incident in the southern town of Dara’a in March 2011, provided a decisive spark for the emergence of demonstrations (Sharp and Blanchard, 2012B). The government use of force against demonstrators in Dara’a and later in other cities created a corresponding swell in public anger and public participation in protests. Faced with a vicious response by government forces, the initially nonviolent uprising has progressively changed into an armed rebellion and civil war between government forces loyal to President Assad and opposition forces led by the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a group made up of largely soldiers who defected from the Syrian army (Dunne, 2012). Nearly 70,000 people have died in the conflict to date, and one million refugees have fled into neighboring countries, with another 5,000 joining them everyday (Dunne, 2012). A UN estimate further suggest that two and a half million Syrians are internally displaced. The Syrian civil war has received significant international attention, and both the Syrian government and the opposition have received support from foreign powers. As noted by Dunne (2012), the Syrian crisis is no longer a confrontation between the rulers and the ruled, but a looming multilateral struggle between varying foreign interest with the very identity of Syria, and its future as a potential democracy at stake. 1154 ISSN 2039-2117 (online) Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences Vol 5 No 27 ISSN 2039-9340 (print) MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy December 2014 The uprising in Syria has provided an opportunity for both the United States and Russian governments to improve and consolidate on their bilateral relations with the country either through support or non-support for the embattled government. They see cordial bilateral relations with Syria as a means to further broaden and strengthen their spheres of influence in the Middle East. It is therefore not surprising that the United States and Russian governments have been very vocal foreign actors since the Syrian unrest began. While the United States’ support has been for the opposition group calling for President Assad to step down in order to usher in a transition programme, Russia, on the other hand, has supported many multilateral processes aimed at establishing a political transition in Syria, but has refused to back any demand for President al-Assad to step down as a pre-condition for talks (Dunne, 2012). Beyond rhetoric’s however, both the United States’ and Russian governments have made considerable efforts to provide strategic supports that will help advance and secure their interests in post–war Syria. The United Nations’ Security Council approval of the appointment of Kofi Annan as the U.N-Arab League Special Envoy to Syria signaled international commitment to resolve the Syrian crisis in a non-partisan manner, ruling out the possibility of any form of direct military intervention in support of any of the conflicting parties by the U.N. The aim of the peace deal brokered by Kofi Annan was to establish a long-term ceasefire that would support the opening of a national dialogue between the Syrian government and opposition groups on Syria’s political future (Sharp and Blanchard, 2012B). The Annan six-point peace plan specifically called for: • A Syrian–led political process to address the aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people; • A U.N–supervised cessation of armed violence in all its forms by all parties to protect civilians; • All parties to ensure provision of humanitarian assistance to all areas affected by the fighting; and to implement a daily two–hour humanitarian pause; • Authorities to intensify the pace and scale of release of arbitrarily determined persons; • Authorities to ensure freedom of movement throughout the country for journalists; and • Authorities to respect freedom of association and the right to demonstrate peacefully (www.un.org/news/ press/does/2012). However, the involvement of the U.S and Russian governments in the Syrian crisis have been on partisan basis with both nations reported to have provided various forms of financial and military assistance to the opposing actors in the conflict. These assistances were aimed at giving a comparative advantage to the group they align with in the conflict over the other. The partisan involvement of the U.S and Russian governments in the Syrian crisis meant that both governments, despite being permanent members of the U.N Security Council that sanctioned the Annan peace process, also adopted certain unilateral measures directed at giving an extra advantage to the party they aligned with in the conflict. This study therefore attempted an investigation of the effect of the divergence in the nature of the United States and Russian governments’ involvement in the Syrian crisis on the Kofi Annan peace process. 2. Theoretical Explanation on why the Annan Peace Process for Syria Failed The resignation of Kofi Annan as the UN-Arab League Special Envoy to Syria by the end of August 2012 as the Syrian government remained entangled in a violent conflict of survival with the opposition force led by the Free Syrian Army (FSA) signaled the collapse and failure of his peace process for Syria. The adoption of the two persons’ zero-sum model of the game theory in the analysis of the United States and Russian governments’ strategic and economic interest in Syria explains better why the Annan peace process failed. Plano and Riggs (1973:33) defined game theory as “a body of thought dealing with rational decision strategies in situations of conflict and competition, when each participant or player seeks to maximize gains and minimize losses”. Schelling (1960) defined game theory as the formal study of the rational, consistent expectations that participants can have about each other’s choices. Game theory is generally played according to what is called the minimax strategy. This implies that players try to minimize their maximum possible losses. Varma (1975) itemized the six fundamental features of game theory as: (i) Rational Behaviour; (ii) Strategy; (iii) Play-Off or Outcome; (iv) Rules of the Game; (v) Alliances; and (vi) Solution. In the two person’s zero-sum model of game theory, there are two plays and the gain of one equal the loss of the other. That is, the victory and loss always cancel each other out. The United States and Russian governments represent two rational actors engaged in a game of conflict and cooperation in the Middle East, and Syria in particular. The zero-sum nature of this conflict emanates from the fact that the U.S. gains in the Middle East, and Syria in particular strategically amounts to Russia’s loss. For instance, while regional stability of the Arab world is crucial to the U.S government in ensuring reduction and stability of global oil prices that beneficial to her as an oil importing nation, instability in the region however leads to soaring of oil prices in the global 1155 ISSN 2039-2117 (online) Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences Vol 5 No 27 ISSN 2039-9340 (print) MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy December 2014 market, a situation favourable to Russia as an oil–exporting country.
Recommended publications
  • Syria and Repealing Decision 2011/782/CFSP
    30.11.2012 EN Official Journal of the European Union L 330/21 DECISIONS COUNCIL DECISION 2012/739/CFSP of 29 November 2012 concerning restrictive measures against Syria and repealing Decision 2011/782/CFSP THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, internal repression or for the manufacture and maintenance of products which could be used for internal repression, to Syria by nationals of Member States or from the territories of Having regard to the Treaty on European Union, and in Member States or using their flag vessels or aircraft, shall be particular Article 29 thereof, prohibited, whether originating or not in their territories. Whereas: The Union shall take the necessary measures in order to determine the relevant items to be covered by this paragraph. (1) On 1 December 2011, the Council adopted Decision 2011/782/CFSP concerning restrictive measures against Syria ( 1 ). 3. It shall be prohibited to: (2) On the basis of a review of Decision 2011/782/CFSP, the (a) provide, directly or indirectly, technical assistance, brokering Council has concluded that the restrictive measures services or other services related to the items referred to in should be renewed until 1 March 2013. paragraphs 1 and 2 or related to the provision, manu­ facture, maintenance and use of such items, to any natural or legal person, entity or body in, or for use in, (3) Furthermore, it is necessary to update the list of persons Syria; and entities subject to restrictive measures as set out in Annex I to Decision 2011/782/CFSP. (b) provide, directly or indirectly, financing or financial assistance related to the items referred to in paragraphs 1 (4) For the sake of clarity, the measures imposed under and 2, including in particular grants, loans and export credit Decision 2011/273/CFSP should be integrated into a insurance, as well as insurance and reinsurance, for any sale, single legal instrument.
    [Show full text]
  • The Syrian National Council: a Victorious Opposition?
    THE INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST STUDIES IMES CAPSTONE PAPER SERIES THE SYRIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL: A VICTORIOUS OPPOSITION? JARED MARKLAND KRITTIKA LALWANEY MAY 2012 THE INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST STUDIES THE ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY COPYRIGHT OF THE AUTHOR(S), 2012 THE SYRIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL: A VICTORIOUS OPPOSITION? Jared Markland & Krittika Lalwaney Introduction The Syrian National Council (SNC) emerged as an opposition movement representing the democratic uprisings in Syria calling for regime change. The Assad regime’s forceful measures against Syrians have delegitimized the government and empowered the revolution. The success of the revolution, in overthrowing the regime hinges on the Syrian opposition’s ability to overcome its deficiencies. This paper analyzes the performance of the SNC by determining SNC success or failure to launch a successful opposition movement against the regime. The SNC’s probability of success in the overthrow of the regime is contingent on its ability to unify internally, obtain financial capacity, establish international recognition, and build internal popular support. Methodology The methods used to examine the prospects for success of the SNC as a viable opposition movement consist of comparative case studies and qualitative field research. We examined four case studies, including Nicaragua, Libya, El Salvador and Guatemala. These cases establish a set of core factors necessary for an opposition movement to succeed. The utilization of these factors allows us to create a comparative assessment of the overall performance of the SNC. Our qualitative fieldwork entailed a total of 32 interviews with current SNC members, Syrian activists, refugees, Free Syrian Army members, academic experts, and government officials.
    [Show full text]
  • B DEĊIŻJONI TAL-KUNSILL 2013/255/PESK Tal-31 Ta’ Mejju 2013 Dwar Miżuri Restrittivi Kontra S-Sirja (ĠU L 147, 1.6.2013, P
    2013D0255 — MT — 29.05.2015 — 010.001 — 1 Dan id-dokument ġie magħmul bil-ħsieb li jintuża bħala għodda ta’ dokumentazzjoni u l-istituzzjonijiet ma jassumu l-ebda responsabbiltà għall-kontenut tiegħu ►B DEĊIŻJONI TAL-KUNSILL 2013/255/PESK tal-31 ta’ Mejju 2013 dwar miżuri restrittivi kontra s-Sirja (ĠU L 147, 1.6.2013, p. 14) Emendata minn: Ġurnal Uffiċjali Nru Paġna Data ►M1 Deċiżjoni tal-Kunsill 2013/760/PESK tat-13 ta' Diċembru 2013 L 335 50 14.12.2013 ►M2 Deċiżjoni tal-Kunsill 2014/74/PESK tal-10 ta’ Frar 2014 L 40 63 11.2.2014 ►M3 Deċiżjoni tal-Kunsill 2014/309/PESK tat-28 ta' Mejju 2014 L 160 37 29.5.2014 ►M4 Deċiżjoni ta' Implimentazzjoni tal-Kunsill 2014/387/PESK tat-23 ta' L 183 72 24.6.2014 Ġunju 2014 ►M5 Deċiżjoni ta' Implimentazzjoni tal-Kunsill 2014/488/PESK tat-22 ta' L 217 49 23.7.2014 Lulju 2014 ►M6 Deċiżjoni ta' Implimentazzjoni tal-Kunsill 2014/678/PESK tas-26 ta' L 283 59 27.9.2014 Settembru 2014 ►M7 Deċiżjoni ta' Implimentazzjoni tal-Kunsill 2014/730/PESK tal-20 ta' L 301 36 21.10.2014 Ottubru 2014 ►M8 Deċiżjoni tal-Kunsill 2014/901/PESK tat-12 ta' Diċembru 2014 L 358 28 13.12.2014 ►M9 Deċiżjoni ta' Implimentazzjoni tal-Kunsill (PESK) 2015/117 tas-26 ta' L 20 85 27.1.2015 Jannar 2015 ►M10 Deċiżjoni ta' Implimentazzjoni tal-Kunsill (PESK) 2015/383 tas-6 ta' L 64 41 7.3.2015 Marzu 2015 ►M11 Deċiżjoni ta' Implimentazzjoni tal-Kunsill (PESK) 2015/784 tad-19 ta' L 124 13 20.5.2015 Mejju 2015 ►M12 Deċiżjoni tal-Kunsill (PESK) 2015/837 tat-28 ta' Mejju 2015 L 132 82 29.5.2015 Kkoreġuta minn: ►C1 Emendi, Ġ.U.
    [Show full text]
  • Should the Un Intervene Into to Oppressive Regimes?
    NEAR EAST UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES DEPARTMENT OF LAW MASTER’S PROGRAM MASTER’S THESIS SHOULD THE UN INTERVENE INTO TO OPPRESSIVE REGIMES? A COMPARATIVE EXAMINATIONS OF THE LEGAL OF HUMAN RIGHT JUSTIFICATIONS FOR INTERVENING IN AFGHANISTAN AND LIBYA AND THE INACTION IN SYRIA Hadi Abdullah MAWLOOD NICOSIA 2016 NEAR EAST UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES DEPARTMENT OF LAW MASTER’S PROGRAM MASTER’S THESIS SHOULD THE UN INTERVENE INTO TO OPPRESSIVE REGIMES? A COMPARATIVE EXAMINATIONS OF THE LEGAL OF HUMAN RIGHT JUSTIFICATIONS FOR INTERVENING IN AFGHANISTAN AND LIBYA AND THE INACTION IN SYRIA PREPARED BY Hadi Abdullah MAWLOOD 20135446 Supervisor Asst. Prof. Dr Resat Volkan GUNEL NICOSIA 2016 NEAR EAST UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Department of Law Master’s Program Thesis Defence Thesis Title: Should The UN Intervene Into To Oppressive Regimes? A Comparative Examinations of The Legal Of Human Right Justifications For Intervening In Afghanistan And Libya And The Inaction In Syria We certify the thesis is satisfactory for the award of degree of Master of Law Prepared By: Hadi Abdullah MAWLOOD Examining Committee in charge Asst. Prof. Dr. Reşat Volkan Günel Near East University Thesis Supervisor Head of Law Department Dr. Tutku Tugyan Near East University Law Department ….………………… Near East University ………… Department Approval of the Graduate School of Social Sciences Assoc. Prof. Dr. MUSTAFA SAĞSAN Acting Director iii ABSTRACT The establishment of the United Nations is for the sole reason of protecting the entire peace and for the entire human race. The protection and advancement of Human Rights as innate and enforceable rights are the known tenets behind the establishment of the United Nations.
    [Show full text]
  • Jean-Loup Samaan*
    Jean-Loup Samaan* L’ÉTRANGE DESTIN DE L’AlliANCE SYRIE-IRAN-HEZBOllAH Durant trois décennies, la triple alliance constituée par la Syrie des Assad, le régime islamique iranien et le Hezbollah libanais a mis en œuvre une redoutable stratégie régionale. À l’origine, le rapprochement Damas-Téhéran fut un mariage de circonstance entre un régime nationaliste arabe et une théocratie chiite. Mais cette union a fini par devenir l’une des alliances les plus durables du Moyen-Orient ; et cela grâce aux succès politiques et militaires enregistrés par le Hezbollah sur la scène libanaise (1). Cet « axe de la résistance » (Mihwar al Muqawama), selon la terminologie employée par les intéressés, a constitué au cours de cette période un bloc solide dont l’objectif était de s’opposer aux stratégies « impérialistes » des États-Unis au Moyen-Orient et de poursuivre la lutte contre Israël après la normalisation de ses rela- tions avec l’Égypte en 1979. Pour ce faire, Damas et Téhéran ont souvent opté pour la guerre asymétrique, finançant des groupes terroristes et d’insurgés partout où ceux-ci pouvaient viser les armées israélienne et américaine (dans les territoires palestiniens, au Liban ou encore en Irak). Cependant, à partir de février 2011, la crise syrienne née dans le sillage du printemps arabe a mis à l’épreuve les fondements de cette alliance. L’Iran et le Hezbollah ont d’abord cherché à ménager leurs propres intérêts. Chacun à sa façon, ils ont continué à afficher leur soutien à Bachar al-Assad. Mais, simultanément, les responsables iraniens et le Parti de Dieu ont tenté de jouer les médiateurs entre le régime et les rebelles afin de négocier les termes d’une sortie de crise.
    [Show full text]
  • Losing Their Last Refuge: Inside Idlib's Humanitarian Nightmare
    Losing Their Last Refuge INSIDE IDLIB’S HUMANITARIAN NIGHTMARE Sahar Atrache FIELD REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2019 Cover Photo: Displaced Syrians are pictured at a camp in Kafr Lusin near the border with Turkey in Idlib province in northwestern Syria. Photo Credit: AAREF WATAD/AFP/Getty Images. Contents 4 Summary and Recommendations 8 Background 9 THE LAST RESORT “Back to the Stone Age:” Living Conditions for Idlib’s IDPs Heightened Vulnerabilities Communal Tensions 17 THE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE UNDER DURESS Operational Challenges Idlib’s Complex Context Ankara’s Mixed Role 26 Conclusion SUMMARY As President Bashar al-Assad and his allies retook a large swath of Syrian territory over the last few years, rebel-held Idlib province and its surroundings in northwest Syria became the refuge of last resort for nearly 3 million people. Now the Syrian regime, backed by Russia, has launched a brutal offensive to recapture this last opposition stronghold in what could prove to be one of the bloodiest chapters of the Syrian war. This attack had been forestalled in September 2018 by a deal reached in Sochi, Russia between Russia and Turkey. It stipulated the withdrawal of opposition armed groups, including Hay’at Tahrir as-Sham (HTS)—a former al-Qaeda affiliate—from a 12-mile demilitarized zone along the front lines, and the opening of two major HTS-controlled routes—the M4 and M5 highways that cross Idlib—to traffic and trade. In the event, HTS refused to withdraw and instead reasserted its dominance over much of the northwest. By late April 2019, the Sochi deal had collapsed in the face of the Syrian regime’s military escalation, supported by Russia.
    [Show full text]
  • The Syrian Conflict: a Systems Conflict Analysis
    The ARK Group is a network of stabilisation and conflict transformation The Syrian conflict: consultancies that provides research- KDF Documents informed analysis and policy recommendations, as well as evidence- A systems conflict analysis based interventions in conflict-affected states on behalf of public and private sector clients. Working with and through local communities, we seek to understand and then mitigate the negative effects of conflict and instability to enhance community safety and promote human security, development and economic opportunity. Cover © Lens of a Young Damascene Back-cover © Lens of a Young Damascene ARK Group DMCC February 2016 The Syrian conflict: A systems conflict analysis ARK Group DMCC February 2016 ARK is a consultancy company specialising in the provision of policy-relevant research and the design and management of conflict prevention and transforma- tion programmes to prevent and mitigate instability and promote positive social change and development. For more information about ARK or this paper, please contact: [email protected]. Copyright © 2016 ARK GROUP DMCC CONTENTS 4 Acronyms 5 Acknowledgements 6 Executive summary 8 Introduction 8 Understanding the Syrian conflict 10 Analytical framework and report structure 11 What is a systems conflict analysis? 11 How to read this report 3 12 Brief contextual overview 16 Stakeholders analysis: conflict actors and interests 16 Local stakeholders: pro-regime 19 Local stakeholders: pro-opposition 22 Local stakeholders: the Islamic State in Iraq and the
    [Show full text]
  • 1 TRIAL of ANWAR RASLAN And
    INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH AND DOCUMENTATION CENTRE FOR WAR CRIMES TRIALS TRIAL OF ANWAR RASLAN and EYAD AL GHARIB Higher Regional Court – Koblenz, Germany Trial Monitoring Report 1 Hearing dates of April 23, 24, 27, 28 & 29, 2020 Highlights Trial Day 1 • Anwar Raslan and Eyad Al-Gharib appeared in court for the first time. The charges of the indictment were read out in court, including charges of torturing 4,000 persons at Al- Khatib (Branch 251), which led to 58 deaths • The proceedings were adjourned early because Anwar Raslan did not have sufficient time to consult with his attorney Trial Day 2 • A Police Inspector testified as to the main components of his investigation of the Accused • Several witnesses had named Anwar Raslan in asylum proceedings, alerting the authorities to the importance of investigating him • Other evidence obtained in the investigation included the Caesar photos, 3 documents signed by Anwar Raslan as head of Branch 251, and media files/texts obtained from Raslan Trial Day 3 • An expert in conflict research testified about Syrian history, religious makeup and structures of the intelligence agencies and branches • The expert spoke about a history of torture and mistreatment under Hafez Al-Assad and Bashar Al-Assad • Many attorneys questioned the expertise of the witness and challenged her on certain facts Trial Day 4 • Three witnesses from the German government testified as to Anwar Raslan’s transit to Germany and his application for asylum • Proceedings were adjourned until May 18, 2020 1 INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH AND DOCUMENTATION CENTRE FOR WAR CRIMES TRIALS Trial Day 1 – April 23, 2020 There was considerable public interest in the first day of the trial with around 50 people waiting outside to enter the courtroom.
    [Show full text]
  • The Houla Massacre Revisited: “Official Truth” in the Dirty War on Syria
    The Houla Massacre Revisited: “Official Truth” in the Dirty War on Syria By Prof. Tim Anderson Region: Middle East & North Africa Global Research, March 24, 2015 Theme: Crimes against Humanity, Media Disinformation, United Nations, US NATO War Agenda In-depth Report: SYRIA This article examines and documents the Houla massacre of May 2012, a terrible incident in the Syrian Crisis which came closest to attracting UN intervention. The analysis here seeks to include all relevant evidence, both from witnesses and on the UN processes. A series of appalling civilian massacres during the conflict helped set the tone for another round of ‘humanitarian intervention’ or ‘responsibility to protect’ debates. The killings at Houla deserve close attention. However, because of NATO’s abuse of the ‘no fly zone’ authorisation for Libya and the wider geo-politics of Syria, Russia and China would not allow a similar UN Security Council authorisation of force. Big power intervention therefore remained indirect, through proxy militias. While the Syrian army attacked those militias and many Islamist groups carried out public executions, attempts to blame the Syrian Army for attacks on civilians remained hotly contested. The context to this was two very different narratives. Western propaganda attacked Syrian President Bashar al Assad, claiming that he, through the Syrian Arab Army, was repeatedly ‘killing his own people’. From the Syrian side this was always a proxy war against Syria, with NATO and allied Gulf monarchies backing sectarian terrorist gangs, with the aim of ‘regime change’. The western line maintained that a peaceful protest movement, after many months of ‘regime brutality’, transformed into a secular (later ‘moderate Islamist’) ‘revolution’.
    [Show full text]
  • Control of the Syrian Airspace Russian Geopolitical Ambitions and Air Threat Assessment Can Kasapoğlu
    NR. 14 APRIL 2018 Introduction Control of the Syrian Airspace Russian Geopolitical Ambitions and Air Threat Assessment Can Kasapoğlu Russia has mounted its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) footprint in the Levant and also boosted the Syrian Arab Air Defense Force’s capabilities. Syrian skies now remain a heavily contested combat airspace and a dangerous flashpoint. Moreover, there is another grave threat to monitor at low altitudes. Throughout the civil war, various non-state armed groups have acquired advanced man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), which pose a menacing challenge not only to the deployed forces, but also to commercial aviation around the world. In the face of these threats, NATO needs to draw key lessons-learned from the contemporary Russian opera- tional art, and more importantly, to develop a new understanding in order to grasp the emerging reality in Syria. Simply put, control of the Syrian airspace is becoming an extremely crucial issue, and it will be a determining factor for the war-torn country’s future status quo. Russia’s integrated air defense footprint regard, advanced defensive strategic weapon in Syria was mounted gradually following systems, such as the S-400s and the S-300V4s, its intervention, which began in September were deployed to the Hmeimim Air Base. 2015. That year, the Armed Forces of the This formidable posture was reinforced Russian Federation established the Hmei- by high-end offensive assets, such as SS-26 mim Air Base in the Mediterranean gate- Iskander short-range ballistic missiles and way city of Latakia, adjacent to the Basel Su-35 air superiority fighters.
    [Show full text]
  • Timeline of International Response to the Situation in Syria
    Timeline of International Response to the Situation in Syria Beginning with dates of a few key events that initiated the unrest in March 2011, this timeline provides a chronological list of important news and actions from local, national, and international actors in response to the situation in Syria. Skip to: [2012] [2013] [2014] [2015] [2016] [Most Recent] Acronyms: EU – European Union PACE – Parliamentary Assembly of the Council CoI – UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria of Europe FSA – Free Syrian Army SARC – Syrian Arab Red Crescent GCC – Gulf Cooperation Council SASG – Special Adviser to the Secretary- HRC – UN Human Rights Council General HRW – Human Rights Watch SES – UN Special Envoy for Syria ICC – International Criminal Court SOC – National Coalition of Syrian Revolution ICRC – International Committee of the Red and Opposition Forces Cross SOHR – Syrian Observatory for Human Rights IDPs – Internally Displaced People SNC – Syrian National Council IHL – International Humanitarian Law UN – United Nations ISIL – Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant UNESCO – UN Educational, Scientific and ISSG – International Syria Support Group Cultural Organization JSE – UN-Arab League Joint Special Envoy to UNGA – UN General Assembly Syria UNHCR – UN High Commissioner for LAS – League of Arab States Refugees NATO – North Atlantic Treaty Organization UNICEF – UN Children’s Fund OCHA – UN Office for the Coordination of UNRWA – UN Relief Works Agency for Humanitarian Affairs Palestinian Refugees OIC – Organization of Islamic Cooperation UNSC – UN Security Council OHCHR – UN Office of the High UNSG – UN Secretary-General Commissioner for Human Rights UNSMIS – UN Supervision Mission in Syria OPCW – Organization for the Prohibition of US – United States Chemical Weapons 2011 2011: Mar 16 – Syrian security forces arrest roughly 30 of 150 people gathered in Damascus’ Marjeh Square for the “Day of Dignity” protest, demanding the release of imprisoned relatives held as political prisoners.
    [Show full text]
  • Why States Rebel Understanding State Sponsorship of Terrorism
    Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg Fakultät für Wirtschafts-und Sozialwissenschaften Institut für Politische Wissenschaft Why States Rebel Understanding State Sponsorship of Terrorism Magdalena Kirchner Betreuer: Prof. Dr. Sebastian Harnisch Dissertation zur Erlangung des Grades eines Dr. rer. pol. eingereicht an der Fakultät für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften der Ruprecht-Karls- Universität Heidelberg Heidelberg, im Februar 2014 ! Table of Content Tables _________________________________________________________________________ V Figures ________________________________________________________________________ VI Abbreviations __________________________________________________________________ VII 1 Introduction: Internationalizing intrastate conflict ................................................ 1 1.1 Why states interfere – an empirical puzzle __________________________________________ 1 1.2 State of research _____________________________________________________________ 3 1.3 Theoretical overview __________________________________________________________ 7 1.4 State sponsorship of terrorism ___________________________________________________ 9 1.4.1 Definitions ............................................................................................................ 9 1.4.2 Pyramid or rag rug? Patterns of sponsorship revisited ............................................ 12 1.5 Research questions __________________________________________________________ 17 1.6 Research design _____________________________________________________________
    [Show full text]