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Sectarianism in the Middle East

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Sectarianism in the Middle East Sectarianism in the Middle East Implications for the United States Heather M. Robinson, Ben Connable, David E. Thaler, Ali G. Scotten C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1681 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9699-9 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Sunni and Shi’ite Muslims attend prayers during Eid al-Fitr as they mark the end of the fasting month of Ramadan, at the site of a suicide car bomb attack over the weekend at the shopping area of Karrada, in Baghdad, Iraq, July 6, 2016. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a proj- ect titled Implications of a Religious War in the Middle East for the U.S. Army sponsored by Headquarters, Department of the Army, Deputy Chief of Staff, G-8, Army Quadrennial Defense Review Office. The purpose of the project was to examine sectarianism in the Middle East, focusing on Syria and Iraq. The project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is HQD146841. This research was conducted within the RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the United States Army. RAND operates under a “Federal-Wide Assurance” (FWA00003425) and complies with the Code of Federal Regulations for the Protection of Human Subjects Under United States Law (45 CFR 46), also known as “the Common Rule,” as well as with the imple- mentation guidance set forth in U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Instruction 3216.02. As applicable, this compliance includes reviews and approvals by RAND’s Institutional Review Board (the Human Subjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. The views of sources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not represent the official policy or position of DoD or the U.S. Government. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures .............................................................................vii Summary .......................................................................... ix Acknowledgments ...............................................................xv Abbreviations ................................................................... xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO The History of Sectarianism in the Middle East ............................ 9 Demographics .....................................................................11 Early History and the Sunni-Shi’a Divide .....................................13 Middle Ages: 800–1500 ..........................................................14 Early Modern Era: 1500–1920 ..................................................16 Modern Era: 1900–1979 .........................................................18 Contemporary Era: 1979–Present .............................................. 20 CHAPTER THREE Sectarianism in Iraq ............................................................ 23 Overview .......................................................................... 26 Pre-Ba’ath Sectarianism: Challenging Assumptions and Tracing Identities ............................................................ 28 Ba’ath-Era Sectarianism and Other “-isms” ................................... 42 Post-Ba’ath Sectarianism ........................................................ 48 Implications of Sectarian Division for the Iraqi State and the Region......63 Possibilities for the Future ........................................................65 v vi Sectarianism in the Middle East: Implications for the United States CHAPTER FOUR Sectarianism in Syria ............................................................71 Introduction .......................................................................71 The Role of Sectarian Identity in Syria Prior to the 2011 Revolt ............74 Sectarianism in Syria Following the 2011 Revolt .............................81 Conclusions and Implications of Sectarianism in the Syria Conflict ..... 100 CHAPTER FIVE Conclusion and Policy Implications ....................................... 107 Bibliography .................................................................... 113 Figures 2.1. Shi’a and Sunni Populations in the Middle East .................12 3.1. Ottoman Provinces of Iraq Pre-1916 ............................. 30 4.1. Distribution of Religious and Ethnic Groups in Syria ..........73 vii Summary This report on sectarianism in the Middle East was written in 2015 with the intent of informing U.S. policy in Iraq and Syria. Since the ini- tial draft was completed, the United States and its allies have defeated the main combat contingent of the Islamic State, the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad has rebounded from near defeat, and the Govern- ment of Iraq has solidified its control over state territory. While the United States begins to withdraw some of its forces from Syria, tensions between the predominantly Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabian state and the predominantly Shi’a Muslim Islamic Republic of Iran have flared. Many observers of the Middle East perceive an intensifying proxy war between the two heavily sectarian states playing out in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. War between Saudi and Iranian coalitions seems more likely now than at any point in recent history. Although the analysis and findings in this report date back to 2015, none of the rapidly emerg- ing events in the interim have changed their substance: This report is as relevant today as it was in its earliest draft. What follows is the text from the original report. Sectarianism in the Middle East Increasingly, policy decisions are being made based on the assump- tions that the Middle East is riven by a purely dualistic sectarian war between Sunni and Shi’a Muslims, that sectarian identity is immu- table, and that the underlying sectarian problems in the region are intractable. Following these assumptions, many pundits recommend that the United States not only allow the Middle East to realign to match the sectarian schism but also help reinforce these schisms by supporting the creation of new states and substate regions aligned by sect. Our research shows that the assumptions behind some of these recommendations are often flawed, incomplete, and misleading. While sectarian identity is certainly relevant, it is often less relevant than eco- nomic, geographic, political, and other social identities; in most cases, these identities are deeply interwoven. Our research also shows that these sectarian problems are not necessarily intractable: Despite the long history of sectarian divisions in the Middle East, there is also a narrative of cross-sectarian collaboration and supersectarian national- ism. Reinforcing the apparent sectarian rift in the Middle East is likely to undermine rather than further U.S. efforts to stabilize the region. Long-term, strategic success in such places as Syria and Iraq requires a more nuanced understanding of these conflicts and their underlying causes. While Sunni and Shi’a sectarian conflict in the Middle East spans more than 1,300 years, the nature of sectarianism and sectar- ian conflict has developed and changed significantly over that time. Contrary to the oft-heard narrative that there is an ancient and con- tinuous history of intractable conflict between the two sects over theo- logical disagreements, a close examination of the interactions between the Sunnis and the Shi’a since their schism shows that political, legal, geographic, economic, ethnic, and other issues have been equally, if not more, important in dividing these groups than the role of theo- logical disagreements. While sectarianism is a driver of conflict in such countries as Iraq and Syria, it would be too simplistic to claim that violence in each country is the result of Sunni-Shi’a religious divisions; rather, geopolitical competition, local disputes, and political rivalries form the core reasons for conflict in each country. Throughout history, these sects have come into conflict more when religion is the primarily expressed identity over other identities, such as ethno-nationalism or local tribal affiliation.
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