PRISM syria A JOURNAL OF THE CENTER FOR COMPLEX OPERATIONS About PRISM PRISM is published by the Center for Complex Operations. PRISM is a security studies journal chartered to inform members of U.S. Federal agencies, allies, and other partners Vol. 4, Syria Supplement on complex and integrated national security operations; reconstruction and state-building; 2014 relevant policy and strategy; lessons learned; and developments in training and education to transform America’s security and development Editor Michael Miklaucic Communications Contributing Editors Constructive comments and contributions are important to us. Direct Alexa Courtney communications to: David Kilcullen Nate Rosenblatt Editor, PRISM 260 Fifth Avenue (Building 64, Room 3605) Copy Editors Fort Lesley J. McNair Dale Erikson Washington, DC 20319 Rebecca Harper Sara Thannhauser Lesley Warner Telephone: Nathan White (202) 685-3442 FAX: (202) 685-3581 Editorial Assistant Email: [email protected] Ava Cacciolfi Production Supervisor Carib Mendez Contributions PRISM welcomes submission of scholarly, independent research from security policymakers Advisory Board and shapers, security analysts, academic specialists, and civilians from the United States Dr. Gordon Adams and abroad. Submit articles for consideration to the address above or by email to prism@ Dr. Pauline H. Baker ndu.edu with “Attention Submissions Editor” in the subject line. Ambassador Rick Barton Professor Alain Bauer This is the authoritative, official U.S. Department of Defense edition of PRISM. Dr. Joseph J. Collins (ex officio) Any copyrighted portions of this journal may not be reproduced or extracted Ambassador James F. Dobbins without permission of the copyright proprietors. PRISM should be acknowledged whenever material is quoted from or based on its content. Ambassador John E. Herbst (ex officio) Dr. David Kilcullen The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within Ambassador Jacques Paul Klein are those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any other agency of the Federal Government. Dr. Roger B. Myerson Dr. Moisés Naím MG William L. Nash, USA (Ret.) Ambassador Thomas R. Pickering Dr. William Reno PRISM wishes to express its gratitude to Salameh Nemat for the cover art, LtGen John F. Sattler, USMC (Ret.) and use of his paintings in this issue. PRISM also wishes to thank Ammar Abd Rabbo, Maha Zimmo, and Bernd Schwab for their generous contribution of Dr. James A. Schear photographs for this issue. Dr. Joanna Spear Dr. Ruth Wedgwood ISSN 2157–0663 FEATURES 2 An Unfolding Tragedy by Alexa Courtney and Michael Miklaucic 6 A Diplomat’s Perfect Storm by Thomas R. Pickering www.ndu.edu 14 Next Steps in Syria ndupress.ndu.edu by Judith S. Yaphe 32 The Rise of Syria’s Urban Poor; Why the War for Syria’s Future Will Be Fought Over the Country’s New Urban Villages by David Kilcullen and Nathaniel Rosenblatt 42 Syria’s Salafi Networks by Walid al-Rawi and Sterling Jensen 58 Syria’s Sectarian Conflict by Zuhdi Jasser 68 Moving Past the Bosnia Fallacy by Brian Kreitlow 84 How to Support the Opposition in Syria by Susanna Blume 94 Transnational Justice and National Reconciliation by Radwan Ziadeh 110 Memorandum for President Assad by Tim Grimmett, Todd Harrod and Bryan Hurley 118 Advice to Policy-Makers Who Would Tackle Syria by Robert Rocigliano and Karen Grattan FROM THE FIELD 132 Mapping the Information-Sharing Ecosystem in Syria by Lara Setrakian and Alex Zerden INTERVIEWS 144 An Interview with Frederic C. Hof 153 An Interview with Murhaf Jouejati 162 An Interview with Osama Kadi Passing Through Fleeting Words 4, by Salameh Nematt, from the Arab Spring Series An Unfolding Tragedy BY ALEXA COURTNEY AND MICHAEL MIKLAUCIC hile world leaders’ attention is drawn to nuclear negotiations with Iran, the ISAF withdrawal from Afghanistan, and a host of pressing domestic issues, the human Wtragedy in Syria continues unabated. Millions of Syrian civilians have been uprooted by the conflict, either as refugees in neighboring countries, or displaced within Syria itself. Villages and neighborhoods have been destroyed. The dead exceed 150,000. In a world grown anaesthe- tized to the brutality of civil war, the conflict in Syria is especially disconcerting, sending as it has a wave of de-stabilization rippling through concentric dimensions of security. Syria’s heterogeneous population of 22.4 million (2012) has lived under the heavy authori- tarian hand of the Assad regime since 1971. The uprising that began in 2011, following similar uprisings throughout the Arab Middle East, had hopeful expectations. It has since devolved into a Hobbesian struggle of all against all. The promise of a moderate successor regime to Assad is all but lost in the emerging sectarian, communal and inter-confessional carnage. The once capa- ble human resource base has been depleted; much of the country’s economic infrastructure is destroyed; any social capital that may have bridged between communities is gone. Prospects for resolution of this conflict in the foreseeable future are not promising. Any progress on the destruc- tion of chemical weapons, though welcome, will have limited if any impact on the civil war cur- rently raging. Syria’s neighborhood is perennially volatile. Lebanon though its civil war ended in 1991 remains extremely fragile. Jordan is more robust, but with grave vulnerabilities. The festering wounds of Iraq’s insurgency continue to suppurate with casualty rates approaching those of the Coalition Provisional Authority period. Egypt is still suffering the consequences of the removal of its long-reigning dictator Hosni Mubarek and a coup removing his feckless Muslim Brotherhood successor Mohamed Morsi. Even Turkey, an otherwise strong member of the family of states, continues to struggle with a simmering Kurdish separatist movement on its southern – Syrian – border. The influx into these countries of vast numbers of Syrian refugees exacerbates the pro- found problems already afflicting them. As they struggle to cope with weak economies and their Alexa Courtney is former Executive Vice President of Caerus Associates. Michael Miklaucic is Director of Research and Editor of PRISM at the Center for Complex Operations at National Defense University. SYRIA SUPPLEMENTAL FEATURES | 3 COURTNEY AND MIKLAUCIC own political tensions, the contagion of con- stabilization, and counterinsurgency, not to flict threatens to engulf them. Cross-border mention state-building, is gone. The problems fault lines link these countries inescapably of Syria seem remote to Americans. They are together. not as remote as many think though. The This is the heartland or core of the broader humanitarian tragedy in Syria as well as the Middle East, North Africa (MENA) region. immediate risk of spillover of the violence into Rumbling in the core ripples through the American allies such as Jordan, Turkey, and entire region, with impact detectable along the Israel put Syria irremovably on America’s entire southern Mediterranean littoral, as well radar. as in the Gulf and further east. Saudi Arabia, More significantly American reticence in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran are the MENA region is beginning to look like deeply invested in the Syrian conflict, each withdrawal from the region. Though the supporting their favorite faction. Needless to American administration has protested that say the ramifications for the security of Israel the “rebalancing toward Asia” will not come at and European democracies are profound. the expense of other key regions, indeed America appears to be bowing out. American images are significant in international leadership has been absent throughout the relations, and the image America is currently region lately – in Egypt, Libya, and now in projecting is decidedly passive. Syria. America’s allies have noticed. There are many explanations for America’s strategic deci- sions, but images are significant in interna- A larger struggle in the region pits the tional relations, and the image America is cur- Islamic Republic of Iran against Saudi Arabia rently projecting is decidedly passive. This for leadership within the world of Islam. Syria comes with a cost as America’s allies no longer forms the land bridge between Iran and its feel assured of American commitment. It is a most prominent protégé, Lebanese Hezbollah. slow, but tectonic shift. Bashar Assad’s Alawite regime is a key element Geo-strategy has long acknowledged the in the Shia coalition that now includes Iraq fundamental importance of location - proxim- with outposts in the Arab Gulf countries. Syria ity, insularity, topography, resources. We must is a majority Sunni country – as goes Assad so now equally acknowledge the importance of goes the Shia regime, and the direct link timing. The velocity of political events and between Iran and Hezbollah. These are stakes processes is such that windows of opportunity both Iran and Saudi Arabia appear willing to open and close in the blink of an eye. Decisive go to the matt for. action two years ago, or even six months ago And how does this all affect the United might have incurred risks, or even have failed, States? Americans are justifiably exhausted by but might also have averted the current catas- expeditionary campaigns in far-away places, trophe in Syria. A no-fly zone over Syria in having spilled vast amounts of blood and trea- 2011 might have enabled the Free Syrian Army sure in Iraq and Afghanistan with very little to defeat Assad regime forces, thus possibly apparent return on the investment. What appe- avoiding the chaos that permitted radical salafi tite there once was for reconstruction, domination of the battlespace. A punitive U.S. 4 | FEATURES SYRIA SUPPLEMENTAL AN UNFOLDING TRAGEDY strike against the regime after it crossed the This special PRISM supplement dedicated chemical weapons redline might have pre- to Syria is the product of a partnership vented Syria’s further descent into chaos. Those between the Center for Complex Operations options are no longer available.