Destruction from Above: Long-Term Impacts of WWII Tokyo Air Raids∗
Destruction from Above: Long-Term Impacts of WWII Tokyo Air Raids∗ Masataka Harada,† Gaku Ito,‡ and Daniel M. Smith§ October 16, 2019 Abstract What are the long-term socioeconomic impacts of wartime violence? We use historical aerial imagery of the aftermath of the United States’ indiscriminate firebombing of Tokyo in 1945 to generate detailed neighborhood-level data on damages—helping us to overcome the methodological challenges of nonrandom assignment and coarse mea- surement. Decades after the air raids, the most heavily bombed neighborhoods contin- ued to suffer socioeconomically—with higher crime, lower educational attainment, and higher unemployment. Causal mediation analysis reveals that these patterns cannot be explained by the ratio of new residents or the construction of high-rise buildings, and a geo-coded survey featuring behavioral experiments indicates less altruism in affected neighborhoods. In contrast to previous studies that stress how violence might affect social cohesion (positively or negatively) through individual or family-level trauma, our findings suggest that community-level exposure to violence might create persistent legacies by displacing victims and altering the urban landscape, thereby fragmenting local communities. (150 words) Word Count 11; 817 words (excluding Online Appendix) Keywords political violence, World War II, Tokyo firebombing, Japan, historical legacies, causal inference, geographic information systems (GIS), remote-sensing ∗We thank Ryotaro Inumaru for research assistance. For helpful feedback, we thank Sanford Gordon and participants at the 1st Annual Meeting of the Japanese Society for Quantitative Political Science, the microeconomics workshop at the University of Tokyo, and the CAES seminar at Fukuoka University. This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers JP15K16977, JP18KT0054, JP18KK0039, and JP19K21681; and financial support (No.
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