New Frontiers of Intelligence Analysis

A Publication of the Global Futures Partnership of the Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis Link Campus University of Malta Gino Germani Center for Comparative Studies of Modernization and Development NEW FRONTIERS OF INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS Papers presented at the conference on “New Frontiers of Intelligence Analysis: Shared Threats, Diverse Perspectives, New Communities” Rome, Italy, 31 March-2 April 2004 1 All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed in these collected papers are those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the official positions or views of the Global Futures Part- nership of the Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis, of the Link Campus University of Malta, or of the Gino Germani Center for the Comparative Study of Modernization and Develop- ment. The papers in this publication have been published with the consent of the authors. This volume has been edited by the New Frontiers conference co-directors. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to New Frontiers conference co-di- rector Dr. L. S. Germani : [email protected] All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval sys- tem, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publishers and the authors of the papers. 2 CONTENTS PREFACE 5 Vincenzo Scotti INTRODUCTION 9 Carol Dumaine and L. Sergio Germani Part I - INTRODUCTORY REMARKS TO THE CONFERENCE 1 - INTRODUCTORY REMARKS 15 Gianfranco Fini 2 - INTRODUCTORY REMARKS 17 Nicolò Pollari Part II – PAPERS PRESENTED AT THE CONFERENCE 3 - LOOKING OVER THE HORIZON: STRATEGIC CHOICES, INTELLIGENCE CHALLENGES 23 Robert L. Hutchings 4- EMERGING TRENDS IN THE THREAT ENVIRONMENT: AN ASIAN PERSPECTIVE 29 Peter Ho 5- INTELLIGENCE REQUIREMENTS FOR TRANSNATIONAL THREATS: NEW WAYS OF THINKING, ALTERNATIVE METHODS OF ANALYSIS AND INNOVATIVE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES 35 Phil Williams 3 6- HISTORICAL ATTENTION SPAN DEFICIT DISORDER: WHY INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS NEEDS TO LOOK BACK BEFORE LOOKING FORWARD 63 Christopher Andrew 7- NEW AND EMERGING CHALLENGES FOR INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS 81 Markus Ederer 8- EVOLVING APPROACHES TO ANALYZING TRANSNATIONAL THREATS: KEY CHALLENGES AND POTENTIAL PARTNERSHIPS 87 David Gordon 9- THE FUTURE OF INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS 91 Greg Fyffe 10 - ANALYZING TRANSNATIONAL INTELLIGENCE 97 Michael Wesley 11 - ADAPTING TO THE ANALYSIS OF TRANSNATIONAL THREATS. CHALLENGES FOR A SMALL INTELLIGENCE SERVICE 105 Christian Jenny 12 - THE BUDDHA AS AN INTELLIGENCE ANALYST 111 David Chuter 13 - TOOLS, TECHNIQUES AND TEAMS FOR ANALYSIS 127 Gilman Louie 14 - INTEGRATING METHODOLOGISTS INTO TEAMS OF SUBSTANTIVE EXPERTS 137 Rob Johnston 15 - INTELLIGENT LEARNING 153 Max Boisot APPENDIX Appendix A 169 “New Frontiers of Intelligence Analysis” conference program ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 179 4 Preface Vincenzo Scotti* Unimaginable and unexpected social and political events, on the one hand, and the dramatic impact of technological innovations, on the other, have radically changed the contents and methods of strategic research in the field of intelligence. Analyses and scenarios that had been consolidated over the course of half a century have quickly become obsolete. An eminent physicist once used the following metaphor to describe the work of contemporary scientists: “Imagine sailors out to sea who are trying to trans- form their clunky, bulky ship into a more streamlined one. To modify the hull of their ship they decide to use wooden beams found floating in the ocean along with beams from their old ship. However, they can’t put their boat in dry dock to rebuild it from scratch. So they set to work inside their old ship, constantly fighting against violent storms and rough waves.” This in fact is our own des- tiny. Although the metaphor refers to the work of the scientist in the contemporary world, it can easily apply to the work of today’s intelligence community. Intelligence must rethink its objectives and methods. It must achieve a high- er degree of transnational integration. At the same time, it must respond to the demands of decision-makers and maintain its credibility in the eyes of the public. This is the challenge laid before us by two symbolic events: the fall of the Berlin Wall in the now seemingly distant 1989, and the attack on the Twin Tow- ers in September 2001. The fall of the Berlin Wall was an event that, in the eighties, was impossible to imagine happening in the near future. It became the turning point at which the analyses and scenarios we had developed for interpreting the bipolar world needed to be critically re-examined and changed, along with our methods for as- sessing the global balance of power and regional conflicts. In the changed global environment ushered in by the collapse of the bipolar order, intelligence communities experienced increasing difficulties in under- * Prof. Vincenzo Scotti is President of Link Campus University of Malta, Rome. 5 standing the new scenarios that were taking shape. It was also difficult for them to assess the new threats to peace and security originating from actors and geo- graphical regions of which little was known – threats which were often misin- terpreted because of the continued influence of the bipolar view of the world. The intelligence community perceived that a profound change had taken place but nonetheless found itself in a difficult situation: it had to radically rethink the work of intelligence and at the same time respond in a timely manner to the new intelligence requirements of policy-makers that had to deal with pressing new events. A re-examination of events in the Balkans after the end of the Cold War – starting with the disintegration of Yugoslavia – can shed light on delays and er- rors in intelligence analysis and assessment as well as in strategy. The attack on the Twin Towers in 2001, even more unexpected and unfore- seen than the fall of the Berlin Wall, dealt a serious blow to intelligence communities, raising serious questions about their capacity to correctly interpret and assess the vast amounts of information collected. The 9/11 “intelligence failure” brought to the fore the problem of integrating the analytical efforts and partial analyses of different intelligence services into a comprehensive view of the situation. The performance of the intelligence community overall was inadequate in three critical areas deemed particularly important for counterterrorist strategy: the threat of Islamic fundamentalism; the growth of terrorism in the Middle and Far East and the organizational structures of terrorist networks and their relation- ship to “rogue states.” As a result, the intelligence community initiated a critical re-examination of its mission and methods. It began to place special emphasis on the need to fight transnational terrorist networks with transnational intelligence networks. Transnational intelligence through networking is now a real possibility thanks to the enormous contribution of information technology and new techniques of analysis and integration of information deriving from both open and clandestine sources. Nevertheless, increased awareness and a new professional- ism of the intelligence analyst are still required. For several years now, the Link Campus University – the Italian branch of the University of Malta – has sought to make a contribution to the rethinking of intelligence by promoting conferences and seminars between academics, non-gov- ernmental research centers and government officials. The underlying theme of these meetings is a critical examination of the tasks and responsibilities of the intelligence community in the new century through a wide-ranging reflection on the nature of emerging threats and on new analytical instruments and methods. The innovative ideas developed in the United States by the Global Futures Part- nership of the Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis has provided cru- cial inspiration for our efforts. 6 The “New Frontiers of Intelligence Analysis” conference in 2004 gave us the opportunity to work together with the Global Futures Partnership. The conference was the result of a two-year collaborative effort between the Global Futures Partnership, the Link Campus University of Malta in Rome and the Gino Ger- mani Center for the Study of Modernization and Development. The papers presented at this conference are now published in this volume, which is available not only to experts and scholars, but also to policy-makers and the general public. We hope that it will contribute to the development of a new “culture of intelligence.” Dramatic events have highlighted the need for effective intelligence structures. However, when these events become distant over time it is easy to lose sight of the need to earmark resources that will guarantee the maintenance of an effective infrastructure and ensure the training of personnel so they are well-pre- pared to handle the new tasks at hand. In numerous countries, with the United States in the forefront, a discussion is under way on the need for profound changes in the organization of intelligence and national security systems, and drastic decisions are often taken in an attempt to stir into action the organizations responsible for intelligence activities. In Italy the discussion on intelligence reform seems to drag on indefinitely, and various commissions and bills have not yet led to a definite decision that takes into account the new

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