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New Frontiers of Intelligence Analysis
A Publication of the Global Futures Partnership of the Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis Link Campus University of Malta Gino Germani Center for Comparative Studies of Modernization and Development NEW FRONTIERS OF INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS Papers presented at the conference on “New Frontiers of Intelligence Analysis: Shared Threats, Diverse Perspectives, New Communities” Rome, Italy, 31 March-2 April 2004 1 All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed in these collected papers are those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the official positions or views of the Global Futures Part- nership of the Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis, of the Link Campus University of Malta, or of the Gino Germani Center for the Comparative Study of Modernization and Develop- ment. The papers in this publication have been published with the consent of the authors. This volume has been edited by the New Frontiers conference co-directors. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to New Frontiers conference co-di- rector Dr. L. S. Germani : [email protected] All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval sys- tem, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publishers and the authors of the papers. 2 CONTENTS PREFACE 5 Vincenzo Scotti INTRODUCTION 9 Carol Dumaine and L. Sergio Germani Part I - INTRODUCTORY REMARKS TO THE CONFERENCE 1 - INTRODUCTORY REMARKS 15 Gianfranco Fini 2 - INTRODUCTORY REMARKS 17 Nicolò Pollari Part II – PAPERS PRESENTED AT THE CONFERENCE 3 - LOOKING OVER THE HORIZON: STRATEGIC CHOICES, INTELLIGENCE CHALLENGES 23 Robert L. -
Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates
Inman Award Essay Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA’s Office of National Estimates J. Peter Scoblic Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA’s Office of National Estimates Would-be forecasters have increasingly extolled the predictive potential of Big Data and artificial intelligence. This essay reviews the career of Sherman Kent, the Yale historian who directed the CIA’s Office of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967, with an eye toward evaluating this enthusiasm. Charged with anticipating threats to U.S. national security, Kent believed, as did much of the postwar academy, that contemporary developments in the social sciences enabled scholars to forecast human behavior with far greater accuracy than before. The predictive record of the Office of National Estimates was, however, decidedly mixed. Kent’s methodological rigor enabled him to professionalize U.S. intelligence analysis, making him a model in today’s “post- truth” climate, but his failures offer a cautionary tale for those who insist that technology will soon reveal the future. I believe it is fair to say that, as a on European civilization.2 Kent had no military, group, [19th-century historians] thought diplomatic, or intelligence background — in fact, their knowledge of the past gave them a no government experience of any kind. This would prophetic vision of what was to come.1 seem to make him an odd candidate to serve –Sherman Kent William “Wild Bill” Donovan, a man of intimidating martial accomplishment, whom President Franklin t is no small irony that the man who did D. -
SHERMAN KENT at YALE 62 the Making of an Intelligence Analyst Antonia Woodford
THE YALE HISTORICAL REVIEW AN UNDERGRADUATE PUBLICATION SPRING 2014 THE YALE HISTORICAL REVIEW AN UNDERGRADUATE PUBLICATION The Yale Historical Review provides undergraduates an opportunity to have their exceptional work highlighted and SPRING 2014 encourages the diffusion of original historical ideas on campus by VOLUME III providing a forum for outstanding undergraduate history papers ISSUE II covering any historical topic. The Yale Historical Review Editorial Board For past issues and information regarding gratefully acknowledges the support of the submissions, advertisements, subscriptions, following donors: contributions, and our Editorial Board, please visit our website: FOUNDING PATRONS Matthew and Laura Dominski WWW.YALE.EDU/ In Memory of David J. Magoon YALEHISTORICALREVIEW Sareet Majumdar Brenda and David Oestreich Stauer Or visit our Facebook page: Derek Wang Yale Club of the Treasure Coast WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/ Zixiang Zhao YALEHISTORICALREVIEW FOUNDING CONTRIBUTORS With further questions or to provide Council on Latin American and Iberian feedback, please e-mail us at: Studies at Yale Department of History, Yale University [email protected] Peter Dominksi J.S. Renkert Joe and Marlene Toot Or write to us at: Yale Center for British Art Yale Club of Hartford THE YALE HISTORICAL REVIEW Yale Council on Middle East Studies P.O. BOX #204762 NEW HAVEN, CT 06520 CONTRIBUTORS Annie Yi The Yale Historical Review is published by Greg Weiss Yale students. Yale University is not Department of the History of Art, Yale responsible for its contents. University ON THE COVER: U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, Special Publication No. 7: Atlas of the Philippine Islands (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1900), Biodiversity Heritage Li- brary, http://www.biodiversitylibrary.org/item/106585#page/43/mode/1up. -
HOW FRANK LLOYD Wrighr CAME to MARIN COONIY, CALIFORNIA, .AND GLORIFIED SAN RAFAEL
__.. __.0- __._. __.... __,_... ~ .. ~ _ ... __._ ~ __.. ,. __ "I I 73-5267 RADFORD, Evelyn Emerald Morris, 1921- THE GENIUS .AND THE COONIY BUILDING: HOW FRANK LLOYD WRIGHr CAME TO MARIN COONIY, CALIFORNIA, .AND GLORIFIED SAN RAFAEL. University of Hawaii, Ph.D., 1972 Political Science, general University Microfilms. A XEROX Company. Ann Arbor. Michigan @ 1972 EVELYN EMERALD MORRIS RADFORD ALL RIGHrS RESERVED ----------- ; THIS DISSERTATION HAS BEEN MICROFILMED EXACTLY AS RECEIVED • ' .~: - THE GENIUS AND THE COUNTY BUILDING: HOW FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT CAME TO MARIN COUNTY, CALIFORNIA, AND GLORIFIED SAN RAFAEL A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE DIVISION OF THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAIl IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN AMERICAN STUDIES AUGUST 1972 By Evelyn Morris Radford Dissertation Committee: Reuel Denney, Chairman James McCutcheon J. Meredith Neil Murray Turnbull Aaron Levine Seymour Lutzky PLEASE NOTE: Some pages may have indistinct print. Filmed as received. University Microfilms, A Xerox Education Company iii PREFACE Marin County has been written about as a place where charming Indian legends abound, where misty beauty evokes a breathless appreciation of natural wonders, where tales of the sea are told around cozy hearths, and where nostalgia for the old California of Mexican hidalgos and an exotic array of inter national characters finds responsive audience. Even today the primary interests of Marin chroniclers center on old settlers, their lives and their fortunes, and the exotic polyglot of ethnic groups that came to populate the shores of the waters that wash Marin. This effort to analyze by example some of the social processes of Marin is in large part an introductory effort. -
National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2040
A PUBLICATION OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL MARCH 2021 2040 GLOBAL TRENDS A MORE CONTESTED WORLD A MORE CONTESTED WORLD a Image / Bigstock “Intelligence does not claim infallibility for its prophecies. Intelligence merely holds that the answer which it gives is the most deeply and objectively based and carefully considered estimate.” Sherman Kent Founder of the Office of National Estimates Image / Bigstock Bastien Herve / Unsplash ii GLOBAL TRENDS 2040 Pierre-Chatel-Innocenti / Unsplash 2040 GLOBAL TRENDS A MORE CONTESTED WORLD MARCH 2021 NIC 2021-02339 ISBN 978-1-929667-33-8 To view digital version: www.dni.gov/nic/globaltrends A PUBLICATION OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL Pierre-Chatel-Innocenti / Unsplash TABLE OF CONTENTS v FOREWORD 1 INTRODUCTION 1 | KEY THEMES 6 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 | THE COVID-19 FACTOR: EXPANDING UNCERTAINTY 14 STRUCTURAL FORCES 16 | DEMOGRAPHICS AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT 23 | Future Global Health Challenges 30 | ENVIRONMENT 42 | ECONOMICS 54 | TECHNOLOGY 66 EMERGING DYNAMICS 68 | SOCIETAL: DISILLUSIONED, INFORMED, AND DIVIDED 78 | STATE: TENSIONS, TURBULENCE, AND TRANSFORMATION 90 | INTERNATIONAL: MORE CONTESTED, UNCERTAIN, AND CONFLICT PRONE 107 | The Future of Terrorism: Diverse Actors, Fraying International Efforts 108 SCENARIOS FOR 2040 CHARTING THE FUTURE AMID UNCERTAINTY 110 | RENAISSANCE OF DEMOCRACIES 112 | A WORLD ADRIFT 114 | COMPETITIVE COEXISTENCE 116 | SEPARATE SILOS 118 | TRAGEDY AND MOBILIZATION 120 REGIONAL FORECASTS 141 TABLE OF GRAPHICS 142 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv GLOBAL TRENDS 2040 FOREWORD elcome to the 7th edition of the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends report. Published every four years since 1997, Global Trends assesses the key Wtrends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the United States during the next two decades. -
Library of Congress
Library of Congress Interview with Mr. Thomas L. Hughes Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training Foreign Affairs Oral History Project THOMAS L. HUGHES Interviewed by: Charles Stuart Kennedy Initial interview date: July 7, 1999 Copyright 2011 ADST Q: When and where were you born? HUGHES: I was born in December, 1925, and grew up in Mankato, a small town in southern Minnesota. Q: Can you tell me a little about your parents and your family? HUGHES: My grandfather Thomas Hughes was a successful lawyer, judge, and civic leader. He was also a prominent local historian. We lived with him in his house until his death in 1934 when I was eight. He wrote several well-regarded books—on the Welsh in Minnesota, on Blue Earth County history, and on Minnesota Indian themes. He was in fact the major frontier historian of Southern Minnesota. For instance, he interviewed Indian chiefs after they lost what we used to call the “Sioux Uprising” of 1862. So I grew up in a house full of his library books and local historical objects. Many years later I edited the second editions of two of his Indian books. Dr. Thomas Lowe, my other grandfather, was a well-known prairie physician in Pipestone, an even smaller town located in southwestern Minnesota. He also served as the town mayor, and in his last years he was elected to the state legislature in St. Paul. I spent Interview with Mr. Thomas L. Hughes http://www.loc.gov/item/mfdipbib001565 Library of Congress some memorable times with both grandfathers in my youth, and I suppose my interest in history, international affairs, and public service derives from both of them. -
A Romanian Tribute to Sherman Kent
www.ssoar.info A Romanian Tribute to Sherman Kent Sebe, Marius Veröffentlichungsversion / Published Version Zeitschriftenartikel / journal article Empfohlene Zitierung / Suggested Citation: Sebe, M. (2003). A Romanian Tribute to Sherman Kent. Annals of the University of Bucharest / Political science series, 5, 57-68. https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-381160 Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Dieser Text wird unter einer CC BY-NC-ND Lizenz This document is made available under a CC BY-NC-ND Licence (Namensnennung-Nicht-kommerziell-Keine Bearbeitung) zur (Attribution-Non Comercial-NoDerivatives). For more Information Verfügung gestellt. Nähere Auskünfte zu den CC-Lizenzen finden see: Sie hier: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.de MISCELLANEA A ROMANIAN TRIBUTE TO SHERMAN KENT MARIUS SEBE Whatever the complexities of the puzzles we strive to solve, and whatever the sophisticated techniques we may use to collect the pieces and store them, there can never be a time when the thoughtful man can be supplanted as the intelligence device supreme... Great discoveries are not made by second-rate minds, no matter how they may be juxtaposed organizationally. Sherman Kent Introduction I shall start my paper with a simple question: Why do we need to know and understand the work of Sherman Kent? In a quick glimpse, my answer is the following: first of all, the Romanian intelligence establishment is looking for a way to meet the challenges of the new millennium, and towards this goal it needs a theory, a doctrine. In fact, we need our own doctrine in the intelligence field, especially given the new geopolitical, geo-economic, and geo-strategic environment of the 21st Century. -
Rebuilding Strategic Thinking
OCTOBER 2018 Rebuilding Strategic Thinking AUTHORS Robert L. Hutchings Gregory F. Treverton A Report of the CSIS TRANSNATIONAL THREATS PROJECT OCTOBER 2018 Rebuilding Strategic Thinking AUTHORS Robert L. Hutchings Gregory F. Treverton A Report of the CSIS Transnational Threats Project About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full-time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in November 2015. Former U.S. deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre has served as the Center’s president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2018 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. -
The Central Intelligence Agency: an Encyclopedia of Covert Ops, Intelligence Gathering
See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314835756 3 short articles in Jan Goldman, ed., The Central Intelligence Agency: An Encyclopedia of Covert Ops, Intelligence Gathering... Chapter · December 2015 CITATIONS READS 0 144 1 author: Priscilla Roberts City University of Macau 551 PUBLICATIONS 85 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Frank Altschul, 1887-1981: A Political and Intellectual Biography View project China, Hong Kong, and the Long 1970s: Global Perspectives View project All content following this page was uploaded by Priscilla Roberts on 25 March 2017. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. The Central Intelligence Agency The Central Intelligence Agency An Encyclopedia of Covert Ops, Intelligence Gathering, and Spies VOLUME 1 Jan Goldman, Editor Copyright © 2016 by ABC-CLIO, LLC All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, except for the inclusion of brief quotations in a review, without prior permission in writing from the publisher. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The Central Intelligence Agency: an encyclopedia of covert ops, intelligence gathering, and spies / Jan Goldman, Editor. pages cm ISBN 978-1-61069-091-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-1-61069-092-8 (ebook) 1. United States. Central Intelligence Agency—Encyclopedias. 2. Intelligence service— United States—Encyclopedias. I. Goldman, Jan. JK468.I6C457 2016 327.1273003—dc23 2013042649 ISBN: 978-1-61069-091-1 EISBN: 978-1-61069-092-8 20 19 18 17 16 1 2 3 4 5 This book is also available on the World Wide Web as an eBook. -
The History of Intelligence. Future Prospects
JOURNAL of MEDITERRANEAN and BALKAN INTELLIGENCE AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL Volume 10 Number 2 2017 Guest Editors: Daniela Bacheș-Torres & Efren R. Torres-Bacheș 1 JOURNAL of MEDITERRANEAN and BALKAN INTELLIGENCE AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL Sponsored by the RESEARCH INSTITUTE for EUROPEAN and AMERICAN STUDIES Subscriptions: Individual rate: 100 Euro / 120 US Dollars / 80 UK Pounds Institutional rate: 200 Euro / 240 US Dollars / 160 UK Pounds Mission and Scope The Research Institute for European and American Studies (RIEAS) based in Athens, Greece, publishes the Journal of Mediterranean and Balkan Intelligence (JMBI), which is an international postgraduate academic led-scholarly publication focused on the field of intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, counterterrorism, geopolitics and international relations. In the global society we live today, it is important more than ever to work together in order to solve our common problems. The JMBI aims to provide opportunity to young postgraduate scholar to prepare for careers in academic, government, journalism as well as in the private sector. The JMBI is committed to provide an outlet for reasoned intellectual study and the Editorial Team of the Journal hopes to ignite a blaze of future success. EDITORIAL OFFICE Dr. John M. Nomikos, #1 Kalavryton street, Alimos, 17456, Athens, Greece. E-mail at: [email protected] | Tel: +302109911214 | RIEAS: www.rieas.gr Copyright © 2017 RIEAS. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored, transmitted, or disseminated in any form or by any means without prior written permission from the Research Institute for European and American Studies (RIEAS). This authorization does not extend to any other kind of copying by any means, in any form, and for any purpose other than private research use. -
MELVIN GOODMAN Rethinking the Intelligence Enterprise Series
te TRANSCRIPT: MELVIN GOODMAN Rethinking the Intelligence Enterprise Series Melvin Goodman directs the National Security Project at Johns Hopkins University’s Center for International Policy. From 1966 through 1986 he served as a senior analyst with the Central Intelligence Agency and the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research. He is the author of Failure of Intelligence: The Decline and Fall of the CIA (2008); National Insecurity: The Cost of American Militarism (2013); and the forthcoming The Path to Dissent: The Story of a CIA Whistleblower (2015). Mike German, a fellow at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law School, interviewed GOODMAN on October 15, 2014. The following is a transcript of that interview. The transcript has been edited for clarity and length. Q: Hi, my name is Mike German; I'm a Fellow with the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law School and today I'm with Melvin Goodman. Mr. Goodman spent two decades as a Senior Analyst at the CIA and the State Department and taught at the National War College, and now is with Johns Hopkins University in the Center for International Policy. You spent a long career in intelligence and writing about intelligence, also the author of Failure of Intelligence: The Decline and Fall of the CIA. What is the appropriate purpose of an intelligence agency? GOODMAN: Well, I think for the purpose, you have to go back to Harry Truman. He wanted a quiet intelligence agency, to be the place where intelligence was gathered, where it was collected, where it was distributed, but he didn't want it part of the policy process. -
Intelligence Analysis—The Emergence of a Discipline
INTRODUCTION Intelligence Analysis—The Emergence of a Discipline James B. Bruce and Roger Z. George SLIGHTLY MORE than half a century ago, the American scholar and pioneering intelligence analyst Sherman Kent lamented that the U.S. intelligence community lacked a professional literature.1 Serving as the head of the Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA’s) Office of National Estimates, Kent hoped to define and develop a professional intelligence analysis discipline, noting that academic professions could not operate without an understanding of the field or a compa- rable body of knowledge. Today, though there is surely a large body of general writing on intelligence, most professional intelligence analysts still share Kent’s complaint. Indeed, many writers have instead concentrated on the past and cur- rent failings of intelligence and policy officials, putting the record ‘‘straight’’ as they see it, or exposing sensational intelligence operations to excite or infuriate the public. However, they have largely neglected defining the discipline of ‘‘intel- ligence analysis’’ or adding to the collective knowledge on what constitutes good analytic principles and practices. Defining the Analytic Discipline Is there a professional discipline known as ‘‘intelligence analysis?’’ Considerable effort has been devoted to defining what is meant by the general term ‘‘intelli- gence,’’ which surely encompasses analysis as one part of a multifaceted process of gaining specific, often secret, information for government use.2 Analysis is the thinking part of the intelligence process, or as the former career analyst and senior official Douglas MacEachin has phrased it, ‘‘Intelligence is a profession of cognition.’’3 It is all about monitoring important countries, trends, people, events, and other phenomena and in identifying patterns or anomalies in behav- ior and cause–effect relationships among key factors that explain past outcomes and might point to future developments with policy implications for the United States.