MELVIN GOODMAN Rethinking the Intelligence Enterprise Series
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137-148 Book Review -Eng.Qxd
POLICY IN SLAM DUNK STYLE George Tenet, with Bill Harlow. At the Center of the Storm: My Years at the CIA. New York: Harper Collins Publishers, 2007, 832 p. Reviewed by Gennady Evstafiev I have in front of me a huge 2007published volume (832 pages with appendices) of recollec tions of George Tenet, exDirector of the CIA. The book contains his memories of seven years that he spent at the head of this notorious department. Strictly speaking, Mr. Tenet served in the agency for nine years – during the first two he was a deputy of notorious John Deutch, whose 18 months of disgrace in the CIA ended in 1997. However, this is a different instructive story. So George Tenet and his directorship of the intelligence occurred during, probably, the most aggressive years of U.S. foreign policy and arrogant selfconfidence of Washington in its unsurpassable global power. Decisions taken in these years by two American administrations shook the stability of the world and continue to have their destructive impact on the prospects of international cooperation and peaceful democratic development of many countries. Reliance on military power, neglect of the opinion of the majority of nations, armstwisting pol icy towards weak countries and U.S. allies, enlightened use of official lies – all this resulted in an unenviable situation, in which the United States finds itself now. George Tenet is a partici pant of this process and an executor of many acts that have nothing to do with international law, the commitment to which is a popular topic of propaganda for the fans of U.S. -
Allen W. Dulles and the CIA
THE GILDED AGE Allen W. Dulles and the CIA Allen W. Dulles spent his tenure as the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) entrenched in secret power struggles that would ensure his ultimate power over the foreign and domestic aff airs for the United States. Th roughout his childhood, Dulles learned to use political power in order to get ahead, and to use secrecy to make unilateral deci- sions. Aft er analyzing examples of his treatment of various foreign aff airs disasters, as well as his manipulation of American media and politicians, Dulles is exposed as a man whose legacy lives in the CIA, as a legendary fi gure who is in fact much more of a craft ed legend than a man of truth. By Sada O. Stewart ‘16 Princeton University of the CIA’s own making, the product of the publicity and the political propaganda Allen Dulles manufactured in the 1950s.”4 How, though, did Dulles craft a fl awless, genius im- age for the CIA? What methods did Dulles use to manipulate the press, the public, and even the other branches of govern- ment to bring forth an agency with “a great reputation and a terrible record?”5 Dulles made the CIA seem like an elite agency full of top agents resulting in high risk, high reward missions—how is this reconciled with the reality of the CIA under Dulles’ reign? INTELLIGENCE IN YOUTH To begin, it is vital to identify the signifi cance of developing and running an intelligence agency in an open democratic system.6 Sun Tzu, author of Th e Art of War, insists the best A Bas-relief of Allen Dulles at the Original Headquarters of (only) way to fi ght a war is to know the enemy. -
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE on the BATTLEFIELD an Initial Survey of Potential Implications for Deterrence, Stability, and Strategic Surprise Zachary S
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON THE BATTLEFIELD An Initial Survey of Potential Implications for Deterrence, Stability, and Strategic Surprise Zachary S. Davis Center for Global Security Research Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory March 2019 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON THE BATTLEFIELD | I ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON THE BATTLEFIELD An Initial Survey of Potential Implications for Deterrence, Stability, and Strategic Surprise Zachary S. Davis ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON THE BATTLEFIELD | III Table of Contents About the Author. VI Introduction . 1 A Realistic Appraisal of AI, Big Data, and Machine Learning . 2 Characterizing the Military Potential of AI . 4 Illustrative AI Applications at the Operational Level of War . 5 Illustrative AI Applications at the Strategic Level of War . 6 The Negative Side of Disruptive Technologies . 8 AI’s Potential Effects on Deterrence and Stability . .14 AI is Only One Piece of a Larger Puzzle. 17 Notes . .18 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON THE BATTLEFIELD | V About the Author Zachary Davis is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and a research professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, where he teaches courses on counterproliferation. He has broad experience in intelligence and national-security policy and has held senior positions in the executive and legislative branches of the U.S. government. His regional focus is South Asia. Davis began his career with the Congressional Research Service at the Library of Congress and has served the State Department, Congressional committees, and the National Security Council. Davis was the group leader for proliferation networks in LLNL’s Z Program and, in 2007, senior advisor at the National Counterproliferation Center, in the office of the Director of National Intelligence. -
Geopolitics, Oil Law Reform, and Commodity Market Expectations
OKLAHOMA LAW REVIEW VOLUME 63 WINTER 2011 NUMBER 2 GEOPOLITICS, OIL LAW REFORM, AND COMMODITY MARKET EXPECTATIONS ROBERT BEJESKY * Table of Contents I. Introduction .................................... ........... 193 II. Geopolitics and Market Equilibrium . .............. 197 III. Historical U.S. Foreign Policy in the Middle East ................ 202 IV. Enter OPEC ..................................... ......... 210 V. Oil Industry Reform Planning for Iraq . ............... 215 VI. Occupation Announcements and Economics . ........... 228 VII. Iraq’s 2007 Oil and Gas Bill . .............. 237 VIII. Oil Price Surges . ............ 249 IX. Strategic Interests in Afghanistan . ................ 265 X. Conclusion ...................................... ......... 273 I. Introduction The 1973 oil supply shock elevated OPEC to world attention and ensconced it in the general consciousness as a confederacy that is potentially * M.A. Political Science (Michigan), M.A. Applied Economics (Michigan), LL.M. International Law (Georgetown). The author has taught international law courses for Cooley Law School and the Department of Political Science at the University of Michigan, American Government and Constitutional Law courses for Alma College, and business law courses at Central Michigan University and the University of Miami. 193 194 OKLAHOMA LAW REVIEW [Vol. 63:193 antithetical to global energy needs. From 1986 until mid-1999, prices generally fluctuated within a $10 to $20 per barrel band, but alarms sounded when market prices started hovering above $30. 1 In July 2001, Senator Arlen Specter addressed the Senate regarding the need to confront OPEC and urged President Bush to file an International Court of Justice case against the organization, on the basis that perceived antitrust violations were a breach of “general principles of law.” 2 Prices dipped initially, but began a precipitous rise in mid-March 2002. -
The Militarization of Police in Our Communities
The Militarization of Police in Our Communities Ways to Take Action From Phillip Thompson, Loudoun County NAACP Chapter: “Protection of human life at all cost should be the policy. That will change use of force procedures from shoot first to try to calm the situation down. That will also give better guidelines to shoot to wound where necessary instead of current all shoot to kill based on standard center mass training all law enforcement now get.” Insist on policing that is founded on a respect for life and the rule of law. The ACLU of Virginia urges people to: o Advocate for a law enforcement culture that values transparency over secrecy and respects civilian authority over police. o Accept responsibility as a taxpayer for public funding of public safety and bring an end to fee-based justice and policing for profit. Support state legislation restricting law enforcement’s use of civil asset forfeiture. o Oppose weapons transfer programs and terrorism grants. Advocate for greater public input on police departments acquiring military-grade equipment. o Support policy and legal barriers to warrantless mass surveillance (e.g., warrantless Stingray use or city-wide 24/7 searchable aerial surveillance) o Engage the community in conversation about alternatives to criminalization and prosecution of low level offenses like disorderly conduct, drunk in public, loitering, vagrancy, petty theft. o Advocate for the use of community-based alternatives to incarceration for people whose behavior is caused by or related to their mental illness or developmental disability, are addiction to drugs or alcohol, or poverty. Join the Richmond Peace Education Center's program and advocacy efforts for a more peaceful & just community and world. -
New Frontiers of Intelligence Analysis
A Publication of the Global Futures Partnership of the Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis Link Campus University of Malta Gino Germani Center for Comparative Studies of Modernization and Development NEW FRONTIERS OF INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS Papers presented at the conference on “New Frontiers of Intelligence Analysis: Shared Threats, Diverse Perspectives, New Communities” Rome, Italy, 31 March-2 April 2004 1 All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed in these collected papers are those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the official positions or views of the Global Futures Part- nership of the Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis, of the Link Campus University of Malta, or of the Gino Germani Center for the Comparative Study of Modernization and Develop- ment. The papers in this publication have been published with the consent of the authors. This volume has been edited by the New Frontiers conference co-directors. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to New Frontiers conference co-di- rector Dr. L. S. Germani : [email protected] All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval sys- tem, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publishers and the authors of the papers. 2 CONTENTS PREFACE 5 Vincenzo Scotti INTRODUCTION 9 Carol Dumaine and L. Sergio Germani Part I - INTRODUCTORY REMARKS TO THE CONFERENCE 1 - INTRODUCTORY REMARKS 15 Gianfranco Fini 2 - INTRODUCTORY REMARKS 17 Nicolò Pollari Part II – PAPERS PRESENTED AT THE CONFERENCE 3 - LOOKING OVER THE HORIZON: STRATEGIC CHOICES, INTELLIGENCE CHALLENGES 23 Robert L. -
2003 Iraq War: Intelligence Or Political Failure?
2003 IRAQ WAR: INTELLIGENCE OR POLITICAL FAILURE? A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of The School of Continuing Studies and of The Graduate School of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Liberal Studies By Dione Brunson, B.A. Georgetown University Washington, D.C. April, 2011 DISCLAIMER THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS ACADEMIC RESEARCH PAPER ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AND DO NOT REFLECT THE OFFICIAL POLICIES OR POSITIONS OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, OR THE U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY. ALL INFORMATION AND SOURCES FOR THIS PAPER WERE DRAWN FROM OPEN SOURCE MATERIALS. ii 2003 IRAQ WAR: INTELLIGENCE OR POLITICAL FAILURE? Dione Brunson, B.A. MALS Mentor: Ralph Nurnberger, Ph.D. ABSTRACT The bold U.S. decision to invade Iraq in 2003 was anchored in intelligence justifications that would later challenge U.S. credibility. Policymakers exhibited unusual bureaucratic and public dependencies on intelligence analysis, so much so that efforts were made to create supporting information. To better understand the amplification of intelligence, the use of data to justify invading Iraq will be explored alongside events leading up to the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. This paper will examine the use of intelligence to invade Iraq as well as broader implications for politicization. It will not examine the justness or ethics of going to war with Iraq but, conclude with the implications of abusing intelligence. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Thank you God for continued wisdom. Thank you Dr. Nurnberger for your patience. iv DEDICATION This work is dedicated to Mom and Dad for their continued support. -
CIA Director Documentary: 'The Attacks Will Be Spectacular'
Case 1:15-cv-01954-CM Document 53-4 Filed 12/01/15 Page 1 of 7 Exhibit 54 November 2015 Panetta Statement CIA Director Documentary: Case‘The Attacks 1:15-cv-01954-CM Will Be Spectacular’ - POLITICO Document Magazine 53-4 Filed 12/01/15 Page 2 of 7 11/30/15, 8:17 PM THE FRIDAY COVER ‘The Attacks Will Be Spectacular’ An exclusive look at how the Bush administration ignored this warning from the CIA months before 9/11, along with others that were far more detailed than previously revealed. By CHRIS WHIPPLE | November 12, 2015 Getty in Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.” The CIA’s famous Presidential Daily Brief, presented to George W. Bush on August 6, 2001, has always been Exhibit A in the “B case that his administration shrugged off warnings of an Al Qaeda attack. But months earlier, starting in the spring of 2001, the CIA repeatedly and urgently began to warn the White House that an attack was coming. By May of 2001, says Cofer Black, then chief of the CIA’s counterterrorism center, “it was very http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/cia-directors-documentary-911-bush-213353 Page 1 of 6 CIA Director Documentary: Case‘The Attacks 1:15-cv-01954-CM Will Be Spectacular’ - POLITICO Document Magazine 53-4 Filed 12/01/15 Page 3 of 7 11/30/15, 8:17 PM evident that we were going to be struck, we were gonna be struck hard and lots of Americans were going to die.” “There were real plots being manifested,” Cofer’s former boss, George Tenet, told me in his first interview in eight years. -
NATO's Deterrence Review
Transatlantic Defense Troubles Richard Weitz In his last major policy speech as Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates on June 10 made his most public rebuke ever of Europe‘s failure to provide adequate defense resources in international missions. Before a meeting of the influential Security and Defense Agenda in Brussels, Gates complained that NATO had finally become what he had long feared: a ―two-tiered alliance‖ divided between those few allies that engage in ―hard‖ combat missions and the overwhelming majority of those members that can only contribute extensively to ―soft‖ non-combat humanitarian, peacekeeping, and development missions. Gates noted that proposed NATO-wide reforms and efficiency measures would at best have a limited impact; ultimately, our European allies would need to spend more on defense. He cited the Libyan campaign as providing ample evidence of the problems arising from lackluster European defense spending.1 During his first visit to Europe as Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta echoed much of what his predecessor had said four months earlier. Speaking at an event hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on October 5 in Brussels, Panetta recognized the contributions of NATO members in the Libya campaign but pointed out the ―significant shortfall in capabilities‖ of NATO allies, specifically citing the shortage of supplies and munitions that ―forced the United States to sell millions of dollars or ammunition, repair parts, fuel, technical assistance and other support items simply to keep the operation going.‖ He further went on to state that ―nowhere was the gap more obvious than in the critical enabling capabilities, refueling tankers, and the provision of ISR platforms…without these capabilities Libya Operation would have had a very difficult time getting off the ground or being sustained.‖ Panetta expressed his concern that NATO would not be able to again sustain operations such as Libya and Afghanistan without the U.S. -
Explaining Blackwater's Unparalleled Record of Violence in Iraq
Wheeled Warriors: Explaining Blackwater’s Unparalleled Record of Violence in Iraq by Scott Fitzsimmons Department of Political Science University of British Columbia [email protected] On September 16, 2007, employees of Blackwater, a private security company tasked with protecting U.S. State Department personnel in Iraq, opened fire on pedestrians and motorists in Baghdad’s bustling Nisour Square. This brief but ferocious use of violence against unarmed Iraqi civilians, which came to be known as the “Nisour Square incident,” left 17 civilians dead and two dozen wounded.1 This event was one of the most violent and widely reported on incidents involving Blackwater’s personnel, but it was emblematic of their unparalleled record of violent actions during the Iraq War. In fact, the firm’s personnel fired their weapons during at least 323 incidents in Iraq between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2007, for an average of two shooting incidents per week. Moreover, despite operating during the same period, performing the same tasks, for the same clients, and facing the same threats in the same general environment, Blackwater’s personnel killed and seriously injured far more people than their counterparts in DynCorp, one of the other major private security companies that provided protective services for the U.S. State Department during this period of the Iraq War. Stunningly, while Blackwater’s personnel inflicted at least 62 deaths and 86 serious injuries during this 1 Blackwater changed its name to Xe in 2009 and to Academi in 2011. However, since the firm is almost invariably referred to by its original name, this study will, whenever possible, do the same. -
Intelligence Legalism and the National Security Agency's Civil Liberties
112 Harvard National Security Journal / Vol. 6 ARTICLE Intelligence Legalism and the National Security Agency’s Civil Liberties Gap __________________________ Margo Schlanger* * Henry M. Butzel Professor of Law, University of Michigan. I have greatly benefited from conversations with John DeLong, Mort Halperin, Alex Joel, David Kris, Marty Lederman, Nancy Libin, Rick Perlstein, Becky Richards, and several officials who prefer not to be named, all of whom generously spent time with me, discussing the issues in this article, and many of whom also helped again after reading the piece in draft. I would also like to extend thanks to Sam Bagenstos, Rick Lempert, Daphna Renan, Alex Rossmiller, Adrian Vermeule, Steve Vladeck, Marcy Wheeler, Shirin Sinnar and other participants in the 7th Annual National Security Law Workshop, participants at the University of Iowa law faculty workshop, and my colleagues at the University of Michigan Legal Theory Workshop and governance group lunch, who offered me extremely helpful feedback. Jennifer Gitter and Lauren Dayton provided able research assistance. All errors are, of course, my responsibility. Copyright © 2015 by the Presidents and Fellows of Harvard College and Margo Schlanger. 2015 / Intelligence Legalism and the NSA’s Civil Liberties Gaps 113 Abstract Since June 2013, we have seen unprecedented security breaches and disclosures relating to American electronic surveillance. The nearly daily drip, and occasional gush, of once-secret policy and operational information makes it possible to analyze and understand National Security Agency activities, including the organizations and processes inside and outside the NSA that are supposed to safeguard American’s civil liberties as the agency goes about its intelligence gathering business. -
Human Cost of Post-9/11 Wars: Direct War Deaths in Major War Zones
Human Cost of Post-9/11 Wars: Direct War Deaths in Major War Zones, Afghanistan and Pakistan (October 2001 – October 2019) Iraq (March 2003 – October 2019); Syria (September 2014-October 2019); Yemen (October 2002-October 2019); and Other 1 Neta C. Crawford and Catherine Lutz2 November 13, 2019 Afghanistan Pakistan Iraq Syria/ISIS3 Yemen4 Other5 Total US Military6 2,2987 —8 4,5729 710 111 136 7,014 US DOD Civilian12 6 15 1 — — 22 US Contractors13 3,814 90 3,588 1714 2 43915 7,950 64,12417 National Military and 64,12417 9,12918 48,337- 51,48320 —21 173,073- Police16 52,33719 177,073 Other Allied Troops22 1,145 — 323 11,00023 12,468 Civilians 43,07424 23,92425 184,382- 49,59127 12,00028 312,971- 207,15626 335,745 Opposition Fighters 42,10029 32,73730 34,806- 67,06532 78,00033 254,708- 39,88131 259,783 8686 Journalists and Media 125 67 86 277 75 31 536 Workers34 Humanitarian/NGO 424 97 63 185 38 807 workers35 TOTAL 157,052 66,064 276,363- 179,424 90,072 575 769,549- 308,212 801,398 TOTAL (rounded to 157,000 66,000 276,000- 179,000 90,000 600 770,000- nearest 1,000) 308,000 801,000 1 This chart tallies direct deaths caused by war violence. It does not include indirect deaths, namely those caused by loss of access to food, water, and/or infrastructure, war-related disease, etc. The numbers included here are approximations based on the reporting of several original data sources.