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SENSEMAKINGDAVID T. MOORE NATIONAL DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE COLLEGE Sensemaking is a tall order, but there is no better Sherpa for the unfamiliar terrain of this new paradigm than David Moore. He almost uniquely embodies both practice and academic scholarship. I’d be happy if the Intelligence Community began a number of pilot projects trying to develop sensemaking, but Moore is much more ambitious: while recognizing its limitations, he’d make sensemaking the basis of intelligence. It should be. —GREGORY TREVERTON Director, RAND Corporation Center for Global Risk and Security SENSEMAKING Moore has done a deep and convincing job of diagnosing the A STRUCTURE FOR AN INTELLIGENCE REVOLUTION ills of the IC, and has proposed a rich and promising cure. He describes the potential that sensemaking offers as a means precisely for helping policymakers to improve how they think about policy. The most valuable part of the book could well be the … attention it devotes to the problem of how we formulate our questions in the fi rst place. —ANTHONY OLCOTT Associate, Institute for the Study of Diplomacy Georgetown University The application of a rigorous metric to a valid case study in this book is the fi rst such application in intelligence analysis to compare processes by different analytic teams. —EMILY S. PATTERSON College of Medicine, The Ohio State University David Moore has written for the Intelligence Community a revolutionary epistemology. His novel construct for intelligence DAVID T. MOORE professionals is the foundation for a philosophy of intelligence. He has started where he left off in his work on Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis with a path forward for analysts to move beyond the methods they learn as “good” tradecraft. —CHRISTIAN P. WESTERMANN Bureau of Intelligence and Research, U.S. Department of State Visit the NDIC Press at www.ndic.edu NDIC Press CLIFT SERIES on the Intelligence Profession PCN23353 Sensemaking A Structure for an Intelligence Revolution David T. Moore NATIONAL DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE COLLEGE WASHINGTON, DC March 2011 The views expressed here are those of the author and do not refl ect the offi cial policy or position of any branch of the U.S. Government. Sensemaking is the inaugural book in our new series, titled Th e A. Denis Clift Series on the Intelligence Profession. Th e Clift Series will present original research on intelligence analysis and the teaching of intelligence. In 2009, A. Denis Clift concluded a 50-year career with the federal government. Clift was president of the National Defense Intelligence College from 1994 to 2009 and was instrumental in creating the Center for Strategic Intelligence Research, which houses the NDIC Press. Sensemaking: A Structure for an Intelligence Revolution, by David T. Moore Sensemaking, whereby intelligence professionals would work with executive decisionmakers to explain data that are “sparse, noisy, and uncer- tain,” requires an interpreter and experienced champion to bring about a practicable understanding and acceptance of the concept among intelligence practitioners. David Moore has accomplished that feat. Further, he, along with collaborators in chapters 5 and 7, demonstrate how sensemaking can be accomplished as a collaborative enterprise. Th e manuscript for this publication was reviewed and cleared for pub- lic release by the Department of Defense’s Offi ce of Security Review. Clear- ance does not imply endorsement of opinion nor of factual accuracy. Th is volume is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sections 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be copyrighted. How to order this book. Everyone may download a free electronic copy from our website at www.ndic.edu. U.S. government employees may request a complimentary copy by contacting us at: [email protected]. Th e general public may purchase a copy from the Government Printing Offi ce (GPO) at http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Cathryn Quantic Th urston, PhD Editor, NDIC Press Library of Congress Control Number 2011924457 ISBN 978-1-932946-28-4 ii CONTENTS Foreword . ix Gregory F. Treverton Commentary . xiii Anthony Olcott, PhD Commentary . .xvii Emily S. Patterson, PhD Commentary . xix Christian P. Westermann Commentary . xxi Phil Williams, PhD Preface: On Being Mindful. xxiii What is Mindlessness? . xxiii Attaining Mindfulness . xxv Acknowledgments . xxxiii Defi nitions . xxxv Chapter 1: Introduction . 1 Where We Are . 1 A Roadmap . 4 Kent’s Imperative . 6 Chapter 2: Th e Failure of “Normal Intelligence” . 11 Intelligence Challenges. 11 Errors and Failures . 12 Considering Standard Models . 16 Types of Problems . 17 A Wicked Look at Wicked Problems in Intelligence . 20 An Intelligence Example: Pandemics as Wicked Problems . 29 Complexity . 33 Chapter 3: From Normal to Revolutionary Intelligence . 37 Evidence-Based Intelligence Creation . 37 Considering the Normal . 44 Paradigm Shift . 47 iii CONTENTS (Continued) Chapter 4: Th e Shape of Intelligence Sensemaking . 51 Planning for Tame and Wicked Intelligence Problems . 51 Foraging . 54 Marshaling . 62 Understanding . 62 Communicating . 64 Chapter 5: A Practice of Understanding . 69 Intuition . 69 Types of Judgment . 74 Th inking About Anticipating . 79 Th e Roles of Intuitive Th inking in Intelligence Sensemaking . 88 Does More Information Improve Anticipation? . 90 Future Vision: Red Brains, Blue Brains? . 92 Looking Ahead . 93 Chapter 6: Considering Validation . 95 Analogies from Other Fields . 95 Replication in Intelligence . 98 Validation in Foresight and Hindsight . 99 Validating the Practice of Intelligence Sensemaking . .100 Seeking Validation: Toward Multiple Methods . .103 Chapter 7: Making Sense of Non-State Actors: A Multimethod Case Study of a Wicked Problem . .105 Introduction . .105 Introducing the Wicked Problem of Non-State Actors . .106 Th ree Approaches to Making Sense of Non-State Actors . .108 Approaches and Methodologies . .114 Critical Assessment: Lessons Learned from the Study of Non-State Actors . .122 Changes in the Roles of Non-State Actors: An Alternative View . .123 Moving Beyond a Proto-Revolution . .129 iv CONTENTS (Continued) Chapter 8: Establishing Metrics of Rigor . .133 Defi ning Intelligence Rigor . .133 Assessing Sensemaking Rigor in Studies of Non-State Actors . .138 Observations and Discussion . .144 Chapter 9: Implications, Limitations, and Conclusions . .149 Considering Foresight . .149 Implications . .152 Limitations . .153 Conclusions . .154 References . .157 About the Author . .181 About the Contributors . .183 Index . .185 Colophon . .195 v CONTENTS (Continued) Tables 1. Characteristics of Wicked Problems . 19 2. Cooper’s Analytic Pathologies . 26 3. Classical Planning and Execution Versus Flexecution . 53 4. Comparing NIC and LSS Critical Th inking Perspectives . .115 5. Advantages and Disadvantages of Each Method . .118 6. Attributes of the Th e Rigor Metric . .136 7. Comparative Scores of the Th ree Eff orts Examining the Roles of Non-State Actors . .138 vi CONTENTS (Continued) Figures 1. Types of Intelligence and the Phenomena Th ey Characterize . 39 2. Changes in Predictive Accuracy and Confi dence as Available Information Increases. 57 3. Space-Time Envelope of Indeterminate Causality . 82 4. A Notional Example of Causality Across the Space-Time Envelope . 84 5. A Space-Time Envelope of Anticipation Regarding.
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