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Briefing Sales and Investment February 2015 Savills World Research Beijing Briefing Sales and investment February 2015 Image: EC Mall, ZGC area, Haidian district SUMMARY The en-bloc sales market remained active in terms of transaction volumes in the fourth quarter, with four deals concluded for a total consideration of RMB8.8 billion. Grade A office capital values with the conclusion of four deals for a sale in Beijing is expected to see the largely stabilised at an average of total consideration of RMB8.8 billion. market remain relatively calm in 2015. RMB64,300 per sq m by the end of As a result, a total of nine deals were 2014, up 4.5% year-on-year (YoY). closed in 2014, contributing a total consideration of RMB20.6 billion, the Grade A office gross reversionary second highest level since 2011. “Despite a slowdown in yields compressed by 0.36 of a percentage point (ppt) to 5.57% by the Steady demand from both the residential market, end of 2014. domestic and overseas investors for limited prime investment stock is 2014 year-on-year results The first-hand, strata-title office expected to support Grade A office market witnessed increased activity in capital values. As a result, Grade A reached a landmark high in transaction volumes in Q4/2014, with office gross yields are anticipated Beijing, with land transaction total consideration growing 78% YoY to continue the trend of moderately to RMB20 billion, nearly four times declining over the next year. consideration reaching a total of more than last quarter. Despite the active performance RMB191.1billion.” Joan Wang, Savills The en-bloc sales market was of the en-bloc sales market in 2014, Research active in the fourth quarter of 2014, limited investable stock available for savills.com.cn/research 01 Briefing |Beijing sales and investment February 2015 Market commentary GRAPH 1 Beijing’s en-bloc sales market First-hand, strata-title office sales, 2006-2014 remained active in the fourth quarter 25 with four deals concluded: Financial Street Guang'an Centre Plot D Office Building was acquired by China 20 Taiping Insurance Group Ltd; Arca Building was acquired by Mapletree; EC Mall was acquired by Carlyle 15 Group; and Fraser Residence was acquired by Ruicheng Capital. The deals saw a total consideration of 10 RMB8.8billion. Nine deals were RMB billion closed in 2014, contributing a total consideration of RMB20.6 billion, the 5 second highest level since 2011. The land market stayed active 0 with Q4/2014 reaching a total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 consideration of RMB32.8 billion, 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 down 30% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). Source: Savills Research & Consultancy However, 2014 YoY results achieved a landmark high in Beijing, with land transaction consideration reaching a GRAPH 2 total of RMB191.1 billion. First-hand, strata-title office supply by area, 2008- Office sector 2014 All grades Traditional Emerging Supported by the good performance 2,500 of several prime projects, the first-hand, strata-title office market 2,000 witnessed increased activity in transaction volumes in Q4/2014, with 1,500 total consideration growing 78% YoY to RMB20 billion, nearly four 1,000 times more than last quarter. The performance was largely attributed sq '000 m to: Financial Street Yuetan Centre ( 500 金融街月坛中心) located in Beijing 0 Financial Street; Central Park Plaza ( 中央公园广场) in the Lufthansa area; and Poly Hyde Park (保利海德公园) Supply Supply Supply Supply Supply Supply Supply located in North Third Ring Road. Transaction Transaction Transaction Transaction Transaction Transaction Transaction These three projects contributed 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 the largest proportion of transaction Source: Savills Research & Consultancy volumes in the quarter. As a result, first-hand transaction GRAPH 3 figure3 en prices in the fourth quarter achieved Grade A capital values and yields, Q1/2003-Q4/2014 an average of RMB33,500 per sq m, Capital value (LHS) Gross yield (RHS) up 43% QoQ and 25% YoY. 80,000 16% The Wangjing area remained the 70,000 14% hottest location for the first-hand, strata-title office market. The 60,000 12% area recorded average first-hand 50,000 10% transaction prices of RMB51,000 per sq m in the last quarter, up 2.4% 40,000 8% QoQ. Average prices of leading 30,000 6% projects in the strata-titled sales RMB per sq m market, such as Poly International 20,000 4% Plaza Towers 1 and 2 (保利国际广 场1, 2座) and Focus Times Square 10,000 2% (方恒时代中心), ranged from RMB49,000 per sq m to RMB54,000 0 0% per sq m. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Source: Savills Research & Consultancy Page 1 02 Briefing |Beijing sales and investment February 2015 Grade A office market En-bloc transactions this quarter GRAPH 4 Grade A office capital values included: First-hand, strata-title retail sales, remained stable in the fourth quarter - China Taiping Insurance Group at an average of RMB64,300 per sq Ltd, a domestic insurance company, Q1/2006–Q4/2014 m, up 4.5% YoY. This was largely acquired Financial Street Guang'an supported by limited prime investable Centre Plot D Office Building 16 stock in the locality, and strong from Financial Street Holdings for 14 demand from both domestic and RMB5.02 billion. overseas investors. However, Grade - Mapletree, an overseas fund, 12 A office gross reversionary yields fell purchased the Arca Building for 10 0.36 of a ppt to 5.57% by the end of approximately RMB420 million. 8 Q4/2014, down 0.43 of a ppt YoY, as - Carlyle Group, an overseas RMB billion RMB Grade A office rents increased 2.2% investment company, purchased 6 QoQ to RMB317.1 per sq m per EC Mall from HSBC NF China for 4 month by the end of this quarter. RMB2.4 billion. - Ruicheng Capital, a domestic 2 Retail sector investment company, purchased 0 Echoing the performance of the first- Fraser Residence for approximately Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 hand, strata-title retail market, first- RMB950million. 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 hand strata-title retail consideration Source: Savills Research & Consultancy was also positive, rising 53% QoQ In terms of sales volume, while to RMB7.1 billion in Q4/2014. As overseas corporations were active GRAPH 5 a result, the total consideration in concluding two transactions in reached RMB27.8 billion in 2014 Q4/2014, domestic buyers continued En-bloc investment volumes, 2007- YTD. Despite there being an increase to be the demand drivers. Office 2014 in transaction consideration, 90% projects continued to be the most of projects are located in non-prime favourable properties for investors, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 areas, of which 80% are comprised accounting for 56% of the total 50 of retail podiums. consideration. 45 En-bloc investment Land market 40 market Despite a slowdown in the residential 35 Investors were eagerly seeking market in 2014, the land market 30 opportunities and the en-bloc remained active, with Q4/2014 25 sales market still remained active achieving a total consideration of billion RMB 20 in transaction volumes in the fourth RMB32.8 billion, down 30% QoQ. quarter, despite the lack of prime However, 2014 YoY results reached 15 investment stock. a landmark high in Beijing, with land 10 transaction consideration reaching 5 Four deals were concluded in the a total of RMB191.1billion. The 0 quarter for a total consideration of majority of Q4/2014 transactions were 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 RMB8.8 billion, bringing YTD total residential plots, accounting for 80% Source: Savills Research & Consultancy consideration to RMB20.6 billion. of all deals. TABLE 1 Major first-hand strata-title office projects in Q4/2014 Financial Street Poly International Plaza Project Central Park Plaza Poly Hyde Park Yuetan Centre (T2&3) Location Lufthansa North 3rd Ring Road BFS Wangjing Opening date June 2014 December 2013 October 2014 June 2013 Completion date 2016 2015 2015 2014 GFA (sq m) 84,000 24,889 186,000 55,000 Price (RMB/sq m) 100,000-120,000 60,000-80,000 60,000-80,000 55,000-65,000 Developer Junhao Holdings Poly Financial Street Holdings Poly Source: Savills Research & Consultancy savills.com.cn/research 03 Briefing |Beijing sales and investment February 2015 The land market is expected to GRAPH 6 continue to see active performance in En-bloc investment volumes by property type, 2007- early 2015. The anticipated activity is 2014 largely attributed to the government issuing a series of polices aimed at Office Retail Apartment Service Apartment Hotel Complex stimulating the market, along with 50 developers holding the belief that risk 45 is significantly lower in first-tier cities and choosing to invest accordingly. 40 The confidence of developers is 35 already evident, with January 2015 30 seeing two major residential plot transactions in the Yuquanying 25 RMB billion RMB area. A cooperative effort between 20 China Resources, Merchants, Wharf Holdings and Ping An Real 15 Estate, saw the group execute two 10 transactions for a recorded total 5 consideration of RMB4.2 billion and RMB4.5 billion.
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