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Identifying Distinct Subgroups of Green Voters: a Latent Profile Analysis of Crux Values Relating to Green Party Support

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Identifying Distinct Subgroups of Green Voters: a Latent Profile Analysis of Crux Values Relating to Green Party Support Subgroups of Green Voters Identifying Distinct Subgroups of Green Voters: A Latent Profile Analysis of Crux Values Relating to Green Party Support Lucy J. Cowie, Lara M. Greaves, Chris G. Sibley University of Auckland, New Zealand Abstract In the present study we aim to explore this possibility by assessing whether The Green Party experienced unprecedented support in the 2011 New there are distinct subgroups of Green Zealand General Election. However, people may vote Green for very voters who differ in terms of their core different reasons. The Green voter base is thus likely to be comprised of social values and level of environmental a number of distinct subpopulations. We employ Latent Profile Analysis concern. to uncover subgroups within the Green voter base (n = 1,663) using data from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study at Time Four (2012). We The Green Party of Aotearoa delineate subgroups based on variation in attitudes about the environment, A brief history and context of the equality, wealth, social justice, climate change, and biculturalism. Core Green Green Party is warranted at this point. Liberals (56% of Green voters) showed strong support across all ideological/ The Green Party of Aotearoa can be value domains except wealth, while Green Dissonants (4%) valued the traced as far back as May 1972 to the environment and believed in anthropogenic climate change, but were low formation of the New Zealand Values across other domains. Ambivalent Biculturalists (20%) expressed strong Party, which won 2% of the vote in the support for biculturalism and weak support for social justice and equality. 1972 election (Bale & Wilson, 2006). Greens in Principle (20%) supported equality and social justice, but were Although the Values Party obtained an less supportive of biculturalism. Our study identifies points of convergence increased share (5.2%) of the vote in (such as environmental values) and crux values that represent points of the 1975 election, the electoral system divergence (such as valuing social justice and Māori rights) across distinct of the time (First Past the Post) meant subpopulations of Green voters. These results highlight the diversity of the that this did not translate into any seats Green voter base and identify different crux points the Green Party must in parliament. In 1990, members of the manage in order to maintain and grow their diverse voter base. Values Party, including future co-leaders Jeanette Fitzsimons and Rod Donald, Keywords: The Green Party, Latent Profile Analysis, Values, Voter Behaviour. formed the Green Party (Green Party of Aotearoa, 2015). Under this new banner, the Green Party won 6.8% (and no seats) in the 1990 election. In 1993, These islands shine in the world Commission, 2014). However, since the the Greens entered into an alliance with for a tradition of ecological introduction of MMP, the Greens have a number of other left-wing parties, living, fair trade, human rights arguably undergone fundamental shifts including NewLabour, the Democratic and peace. in policy priorities, most of which relate Party (previously Social Credit) and to an increasingly diverse focus that —Green Party of Aotearoa Vision Mana Motuhake. Under the Alliance, includes a strong voice on social policy. Statement (2014) the Greens successfully campaigned We argue that the Green Party for the introduction of MMP and won must maintain a careful balance in The Green Party of Aotearoa three of the thirteen Alliance seats at the representing the interests and values benefitted greatly from the introduction introduction of MMP in 1996. However, of a potentially diverse voter base with of Mixed Member Proportional in 1997 the Greens announced that they varying levels of concern for ecological representation (MMP) in New Zealand would leave the Alliance and contest the living, social justice, and human rights. in 1996. In the elections since, the 1999 election in their own right (Bale As the party grows in appeal to a larger party has consistently attained at least & Wilson, 2006). While the Alliance voter base, there may, however, be five percent of the party vote and thus was later disestablished, the Greens difficulties in maintaining this balance. reached the threshold to gain seats in continued on to consistently win at least It is possible, for example, that the Parliament. In the recent 2014 General 5% of the vote (and therefore win seats party may risk fragmenting or losing Election, the Greens cemented their in Parliament) at each election since the part of their potential voter base as a position as the third largest political 1999 election (Wilson, 2010). result of alienating more conservative party in New Zealand with 10.7% The core policy priorities of the environmentalists through liberal social of the vote (New Zealand Electoral Greens have undergone a number policies in non-environmental domains. New Zealand Journal of Psychology Vol. 44, No. 1, March 2015 • 45 • Lucy J. Cowie, Lara M. Greaves, Chris G. Sibley of changes since the establishment Party voters based on different patterns builds a model by creating a latent of the Party. In our reading of the of endorsement for various attitudes and variable which accounts for the hidden political landscape, the Greens have values relevant to the Green Party. LPA structure of response patterns across shifted from primarily emphasising enables us to test the premise that when manifest variables, thus uncovering environmental concerns to being it comes to attitudes and values, Green distinct sub-populations, or subgroups increasingly committed to issues which voters are not all similar. Instead there of Green voters. Furthermore, this reflect broader social values, such as may be distinct subgroups, which all method estimates the fit of the model strong opposition to neoliberal reforms, voted for the Green Party, but who differ to the given data, thereby allowing militarism, and inequality. Although across key values and attitudes, and may various models to be compared (Nylund, this can be seen as a way to potentially vote Green for quite different reasons. Asparouhov & Muthén, 2007). increase their voter base, broadening the Previous opinion on the Here, we employ LPA to determine platform also comes with a number of configuration of Green Party voters the number of subgroups which best risks. For example, this diversification has been divided. For example, in the represents the data. Importantly, risks diluting the core message of the Australian context, Manning (2002) LPA identifies subgroups (or latent Green Party, thereby undermining their suggested that Green parties may lose categories) without enforcing a priori ability to make tangible changes or support from their traditional voter- pattern of profiles, thus summarising attract voters. The incorporation of left base through liberal social values. In the variability of the data rather than wing social values also risks alienating comparison, Carroll, Casswell, Huakau, restraining the data to what has been those who may be more conservative Perry, and Howden-Chapman (2009) hypothesised (see Liu & Sibley, 2013, environmentalists, as they could be tested a similar hypothesis in the New 2015; for discussion of the application attracted by a purely environmental Zealand context by exploring social of LPA in the social sciences). The focus. Furthermore, the Green Party values as a possible reason for the application of LPA in the social sciences may be wary that this broadening of relatively weak support for the Green remains relatively novel, and has been focus may lead to a schism within the Party in the 2005 election. Carroll et al. used to examine patterns and variation Party (much like that of the Alliance) showed that support for environmental in topics such as types of paranormal whereby the Party becomes divided over policies was correlated with support belief (Wilson, Bulbulia, & Sibley, issues such as social justice, wealth or for social justice. They concluded that 2014), attitudes toward bicultural policy Māori rights. Green voters are likely to be liberal (Sibley & Liu, 2013), experiences of Uncovering the configuration of environmentalists. Thus, there seem to deprivation (Osborne, Sibley, Smith, Green voters’ values is of fundamental be two diverging perspectives on the & Huo, in press), beliefs about climate interest to both the strategists of the possible nature and composition of the change (Milfont, Milojev, Greaves & Green Party, and political psychologists, Green voter base. On the one hand, the Sibley, in press), representations of whose primary interests include the Green Party may risk being divided historical figures (Hanke et al., 2015), ideological underpinnings of vote over social justice issues. On the other, and types of sexism (Sibley & Becker, choice. Research within political previous data implies that there may be 2012). In the context of the attitudes and psychology has tended to explore this a reasonably homogenous core group of values of Green voters, LPA allows for question by investigating variables liberal environmentalists who form the the identification of subgroups ‘hidden’ which may predict voting for one party backbone of the Green voter base. Our within the data, without relying on our instead of another. Here, we investigate use of LPA allows us to explicitly test ability to necessarily hypothesise their within group differences to uncover these possibilities. existence or directly measure them a whether or not subgroups of voters priori. exist who all vote for the Greens but Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) Having identified distinct are distinct from one another in terms of To examine Green Party support, subpopulations of Green voters based key attitudes and values. For example, we apply LPA to uncover subgroups on diverging patterns of values (what just how diverse is the Green voter of Green voters who show a similar we refer to as latent subgroups), we base in terms of its values? Are there pattern of responses across a range of then explore demographic differences genuinely distinct subpopulations who theoretically relevant variables.
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