EAST HERTS COUNCIL

NON-KEY DECISION – 15/02

REPORT BY EXECUTIVE MEMBER FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING AND TRANSPORT

NETWORK RAIL: ANGLIA ROUTE STUDY, DRAFT FOR CONSULTATION – NOVEMBER 2014

WARD(S) AFFECTED: All

Purpose/Summary of Report

 The purpose of this report is to agree the Council‟s response to ‟s consultation on the draft Anglia Route Study.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR DECISION: that Network Rail be informed that East Herts Council:

(A) supports proposals for platform/train lengthening and the provision of an additional two four-car units on the Hertford East branch line within CP6;

(B) supports proposals for line speed increases to 100mph for Journey Time Improvements for routes from /Stansted Airport to ;

(C) considers that baseline assumptions on demand forecasting and likely levels of development have been underestimated and that the delivery timescales for infrastructure interventions should be reconsidered in light of more realistic predicted levels of growth and likely demand prior to the final publication of the Anglia Route Study;

(D) in order to achieve the stated aim that “on suburban routes into London, the West Anglia route should aim to provide three to four trains per hour from all suburban stations to London” it should be identified in the Study how such goals will be achieved on the Hertford East Branch line, where off peak services currently run at two trains per hour;

(E) in light of (C) and (D), and noting the Study‟s aspirations to provide increased services to Stansted Airport and Cambridge, that the provision of four-tracking between Coppermill and Broxbourne junctions, and inter-related additional platform provision at Liverpool Street and Stratford stations, should be viewed as a priority scheme which should not be delayed until 2 is provided, but rather be delivered at the earliest opportunity in CP6 in order that:

 timetabling of three to four trains per hour from all suburban stations can be achieved;  additional services to Stansted Airport can be achieved without jeopardising other services;  capacity constraint issues be relieved;  economic growth be supported; and  modal shift be encouraged.

1.0 Background

1.1 In November 2014, Network Rail (NR) launched a consultation on its draft Anglia Route Study. Route Studies are the successor programme to the previous series of Route Utilisation Strategies (RUSs) and form part of the Long Term Planning Process (LTPP).

1.2 The LTPP consists of a number of different elements, which, when taken together, seek to define the future capability of the rail network. The individual elements are:

 Market Studies, which forecast future rail demand, and develop conditional outputs for future rail services, based on stakeholders‟ views of how rail services can support delivery of the market‟s strategic goals;

 Route Studies, which develop options for future services and for development of the rail network, based on the conditional outputs and demand forecasts from the market studies. These options are assessed against funders‟ appraisal criteria and presented as choices for funders in each of Network Rail‟s devolved Routes;

 Cross-boundary analysis, which considers options for services that run across multiple routes in order to ensure

that consistent assumptions are made in respect of these services.

1.3 The current consultation relates to the second of the above bullet points. The document sets out the strategic vision for the future of the Anglia Route network over the next 30 years.

1.4 The Anglia Route itself is comprised of four major rail corridors, accounting for 1,426 track miles. These include:

 the Great Eastern Main Line (GEML), running from London Liverpool Street to , and , together with associated branches;

 the , (WAML) running from London Liverpool Street to Cambridge, Ely and Kings Lynn, and associated branches;

 the North London railways, including the (NLL) running from Stratford to Richmond and the Gospel Oak to Barking (GOB) line;

 the London, Tilbury and Southend, or Thameside, line running from London Fenchurch Street to Southend and Shoeburyness.

For the local context, the WAML and the Hertford East branch line are the parts of the Anglia Routes which runs through the district of East Herts.

1.5 A copy of the full Network Rail Draft Anglia Route Study consultation document (which includes a 13 page Executive Summary) is available via the link at the Background Papers section of this report. As the full consultation document runs to some 145 pages, this report therefore restricts itself to matters that could have the most potential impact on East Herts residents. The consultation closes on 3rd February 2015.

2.0 Report

2.1 The Draft Anglia Route Study document, part of the Long Term Planning Process (LTPP), considers the potential outputs required by the railway network within the Anglia Route in the forthcoming

Control Period1 6 (2019-2024), as well as further ahead up to 2043.

2.2 The Route Study identifies a number of constraints across the network, the most significant of which is on-train crowding on peak services into London Liverpool Street and London Fenchurch Street. Other constraints examined include regional and suburban connectivity and access to diversionary routes.

2.3 Various Market Studies (see paragraph 1.2 above) have identified a range of conditional outputs relevant to the Anglia Route. The Draft Anglia Route Study identifies a range of such outputs (or choices) for funders for Control Period 6 (2019-2024) to address identified constraints, and these mainly comprise train lengthening and the provision of additional services to increase capacity in order to accommodate the growth in passenger and freight services whilst maintaining performance.

2.4 For the WAML, specifically, these include (at Table 5.19):

WACO1 To provide sufficient capacity for passengers travelling into and other employment centres during peak hours, taking into account anticipated growth over the period to the end of CP6 (2023/2024) – West Anglia services.

WACO3 To provide journey time improvement for services from both Cambridge and Stansted Airport to London Liverpool Street - West Anglia.

2.5 In the longer term, the „Long Term Planning Process‟ proposes a strategy to address the challenge of accommodating the projections for growth, outlined in the four Market Studies, for passenger and freight services through to 2043.

2.6 In this respect, the Draft Anglia Route Study emphasises that the stated conditional outputs are aspirations and not recommendations, and are conditional on being deliverable in a manner which represents both value-for-money and affordable to funders.

2.7 The Draft Anglia Route Study uses a baseline date of 2019 and references schemes to be implemented in current CP5, including:

1 Control Periods are the 5-year timespans into which Network Rail (NR) works for financial and other planning purposes. Each Control Period begins on 1 April and ends on 31 March to coincide with the financial year. Currently, NR is operating within Control Period 5 (2014 – 2019).

Hertfordshire safety improvements (level crossings); transfer of certain West Anglia inner suburban service to TfL (not affecting stations in East Herts); and capacity enhancements in the Lea Valley to allow more services into Stratford.

2.8 References are also made to other schemes in development into CP6 and beyond including (Central section), HS2, and .

2.9 In respect of Anglia Route Study proposals for the West Anglia Main Line specifically, some of the CP6 options identified include:

 Platform/train lengthening to 12 cars (which for East Herts would include stations at: Hertford East, Ware and St Margarets, with other stations in Hertfordshire including: Rye House, Broxbourne, , ) coupled with two additional 4-car units on the Hertford East branch line (resulting in train lengths increasing from eight to 12 carriages). This would address capacity to London and other employment centres in peak periods;

 The procurement of two additional 4-car units lengthening peak Stansted Airport and Cambridge to London Liverpool Street services from 8 to 12-cars.

Combined, the two above improvements would provide approximately an additional 16 vehicle arrivals in the peak hour to London Liverpool Street by the end of CP6, meeting the required passenger capacity for CP6 (conditional output WACO1a) on the outer suburban services into London Liverpool Street.

 Line speed increases to 100mph, for Journey Time Improvements for Cambridge/Stansted to London (however, the draft Route Study notes that journey times to London from both Stansted Airport and Cambridge cannot be improved without capacity interventions or alterations to the service structure on the West Anglia Main Line);

 Additional platforms at Liverpool Street/Stratford to address passenger entry/exit and also measures to improve vertical circulation at Liverpool Street, which is currently very constrained;

 Preparatory enabling works for four tracking between

Coppermill Junction and Broxbourne Junction, including matters such as land take, level crossing closures, etc.

2.10 Further journey time improvements on services to Cambridge and Stansted Airport would depend on the ability to separate fast trains from slow trains south of Broxbourne. This is likely to require an additional pair of tracks between Broxbourne and Tottenham Hale (four tracking), the cost of which, however, the Draft Route Study considers may not be justified by journey time improvements (JTIs) alone. In this respect, additional benefits (and funding streams) would need to be identified, such as the connectivity and capacity improvements proposed by the Crossrail 2 project or the need for additional capacity triggered by development in the Lea Valley. However, some early enabling works are presented as options for CP6, including level crossing removal and land purchase.

2.11 Looking further ahead, beyond CP6 to 2043, conditional outputs for the WAML include:

WACO2 To provide sufficient capacity for passengers travelling into central London during peak hours, taking into account anticipated growth over the period to 2043 - West Anglia Main Line services via the Southbury Loop, Harlow Town & the Chingford branch.

WACO5 To provide sufficient capacity for passengers travelling to Stansted Airport all day, taking into account anticipated growth over the period to 2043.

2.12 Measures to address these issues could include:

 Implementation of four tracking to address capacity to London/other employment centres in peak periods2 (this would also require additional major interventions to address capacity at Liverpool St/ Stratford that would be delivered for Crossrail 2 if that scheme progresses).

 Doubling of Stansted tunnel (potentially via a second bore) to address capacity to Stansted Airport.

2.13 At paragraph 6.4.11, the Draft Anglia Route Study states:

2 Although it is recognised in the Study that this could be implemented earlier if development creates demand.

As far as four-tracking in the Lea Valley is concerned, it should be noted that in the absence of a Crossrail 2 scenario, this intervention alone and of itself does not provide significant additional capacity. This is because further major interventions would still be required to increase platform/track capacity at either or both of Liverpool Street and Stratford, together with the possible need to extend the four-tracking as far as (if the majority of additional services were to go to Liverpool Street rather than Stratford). Four-tracking does, however, provide a means for improving journey times on longer distance services to Cambridge and Stansted Airport.

2.14 While, in Chapter 5, it is recommended that work starts on enabling work streams for four tracking such as land take and level crossing closures within CP6, paragraph 6.4.11 presents a scenario where it is not likely that significant progress on actual delivery would be made in advance of Crossrail 2 construction (which itself is not expected to be completed until early 2030‟s).

2.15 The Draft Anglia Route Study does recognise that the demand forecasting methodology used to underpin assumptions does not fully reflect potential housing growth projections in the Upper Lea Valley and outside London, and the wider impacts on economic growth that improved services to Stansted Airport and Cambridge could have. Therefore, it is stated that, prior to publication of the final Route Study, more detailed work with stakeholders will be undertaken to better understand the benefits that early four- tracking of the Lea Valley could bring.

2.16 The draft Route Study states that “this work will examine incrementally increasing the train service to both Liverpool Street and Stratford to understand whether early infrastructure work can be undertaken prior to the full four tracking or Crossrail 2 scheme to support improved frequencies and journey time on the route. This will need to be aligned with the long term footprint required for Crossrail 2 to limit any abortive work and informed by a clear statement of the number of paths that could be released by such a scheme in isolation”. It is considered unfortunate that work on up to date demand forecasting has not occurred prior to publication of the Draft Anglia Route Study so that there could be greater confidence around the proposed outputs at this consultation stage.

2.17 It has been long been locally acknowledged that the WAML is in need of enhancement to ensure that it is equipped to cope with both existing and anticipated increased demands on the route.

The four-tracking of the West Anglia Main Line to Broxbourne and improving rail connectivity to London, especially via Liverpool Street and Stratford, is seen as a key infrastructure measure to support this, coupled with additional platform provision and inter- related infrastructure at both stations.

2.18 A major concern with the current Draft Anglia Route Study is that it fails to recognise the urgency of need for provision in the short- term. It provides no specific delivery date for such intervention, but rather provides a vague implementation timetable of its being achieved by 2043. In relying on demand forecasting that Network Rail acknowledges does not fully reflect housing growth and economic benefits, it is considered that the current proposed timeline will not deliver this most necessary infrastructure provision in a timely manner.

2.19 The draft East Herts District Plan contains aspirations towards engendering modal shift away from private motorised transport to passenger transport and will be a crucial factor in helping to mitigate the impact of planned development in the district. In respect of the proposed Draft Anglia Route Study outputs, while the capacity of existing timetabled train services in peak periods could be improved by the additional carriages being added to existing trains, this does nothing towards increasing the frequency of service on lines, especially on the Hertford East branch line where off-peak services are limited to two per hour.

2.20 Although offering additional seats in new carriages on lengthened platforms that should reduce crowding, the current proposals are not considered likely to offer increased journey choice to passengers, who desire greater flexibility in journey times. This is especially relevant in ensuring that people can make their journeys in a time efficient manner, and also in respect of offering suitable return journey intervals, where long waiting times can currently result if connections are not able to be synchronised.

2.21 Paragraph 3.6.1 of the draft Anglia Route Study states that:

On suburban routes into London, the West Anglia route should aim to provide [inter alia]:

 three to four trains per hour from all suburban stations to London.

The Hertford East service only reaches three trains per hour at limited peak times and off-peak suffers with the provision of a

service restricted to only two-trains per hour. Full modal shift potential is unlikely to be achieved where services are so infrequent. In the past it has been understood that the limited frequency of service on the branch line is due to the lack of track space to the south of Broxbourne and that frequency is unlikely to be capable of being increased in advance of additional track capacity due to other competing demands. Hence, it is most unlikely that the aim at paragraph 3.6.1 could be achieved within CP6 without four-tracking between Broxbourne and Coppermill junctions.

2.22 In relation to airport connectivity, the draft Anglia Route Study states that:

New and improved rail services and their integration with other transport modes at major airports are key to providing more sustainable travel opportunities and improving overall connectivity, acting as a transport hub both for air passengers and for other rail users.

Rail is a vital ingredient to improving the travel experience for air passengers and aviation employees, as well as in helping airports meet current and future travel demand. Rail service provision should be able to meet growing demand for accessing the airports by rail. Fast, convenient and reliable rail access to central London is a priority for London‟s airports but direct access to non London core economic centres, both long-distance and within the London and South East, is increasingly important.

2.23 However, given the constraints on the limited track space and lack of essential new infrastructure highlighted above, it is unlikely that there will be significant improvements within CP6. MAG, the operators of Stansted Airport, have been documented as seeking improved services to the airport with the draft Sustainable Development Plan summing up the existing position well in relation to the WAML, stating that:

The WAML is a busy and complex rail corridor, particularly between Liverpool Street and Cheshunt. Long distance, express and stopping commuter trains all compete for track access and capacity on what is largely a two track railway. The numerous stations, level crossings and infrastructure result in congestion and frequent delays.

Journey times between London and Stansted are relatively long and although operational performance has improved recently, punctuality is still below the national average. By contrast, Heathrow enjoys a 15-minute journey time to London Paddington on a dedicated line and Gatwick is only 30 minutes from London Victoria on a route which has seen major investment as part of Network Rail‟s £5.5billion Thameslink Programme.

2.24 East Herts Council also supports measures to enhance links to Stansted, provided that they do not impact on local services in the district, and thereby hangs the rub, as there are many competing claims to the limited track space. Furthermore, beyond passenger access provision, the WAML also acts as a key method of travel for workers accessing employment opportunities at the airport.

2.25 Beyond airport implications, improved rail connectivity on the WAML should also be viewed as a critical factor in supporting economic growth, both in East Herts district and wider within the London–Cambridge corridor.

2.26 In light of all of the above, it is considered that Network Rail should reconsider its position in respect of the four-tracking proposals between Coppermill and Broxbourne junctions and expedite delivery of these measures, coupled with enabling additional platform provision at Liverpool Street and Stratford with preparatory work to be undertaken during CP5, to ensure that the scheme could be implemented in CP6.

3.0 Implications/Consultations

3.1 Information on any corporate issues and consultation associated with this report can be found within Essential Reference Paper „A‟.

Background Papers

 Consultation: Network Rail: Anglia Route Study, Draft for Consultation – November 2014 http://www.networkrail.co.uk/long-term-planning-process/anglia-route-study/

 Stansted Airport Draft Sustainable Development Plan, September 2014: http://www.stanstedairport.com/developmentplan

Contact Member: Councillor Mike Carver – Executive Member for Strategic Planning and Transport [email protected]

Contact Officer: Kevin Steptoe – Head of Planning and Building Control Contact Tel No: 01992 531407 [email protected]

Report Author: Kay Mead – Senior Planning Policy Officer [email protected]