EAST HERTS COUNCIL NON-KEY DECISION – 15/02 REPORT BY EXECUTIVE MEMBER FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING AND TRANSPORT NETWORK RAIL: ANGLIA ROUTE STUDY, DRAFT FOR CONSULTATION – NOVEMBER 2014 WARD(S) AFFECTED: All Purpose/Summary of Report The purpose of this report is to agree the Council‟s response to Network Rail‟s consultation on the draft Anglia Route Study. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR DECISION: that Network Rail be informed that East Herts Council: (A) supports proposals for platform/train lengthening and the provision of an additional two four-car units on the Hertford East branch line within CP6; (B) supports proposals for line speed increases to 100mph for Journey Time Improvements for routes from Cambridge/Stansted Airport to London; (C) considers that baseline assumptions on demand forecasting and likely levels of development have been underestimated and that the delivery timescales for infrastructure interventions should be reconsidered in light of more realistic predicted levels of growth and likely demand prior to the final publication of the Anglia Route Study; (D) in order to achieve the stated aim that “on suburban routes into London, the West Anglia route should aim to provide three to four trains per hour from all suburban stations to London” it should be identified in the Study how such goals will be achieved on the Hertford East Branch line, where off peak services currently run at two trains per hour; (E) in light of (C) and (D), and noting the Study‟s aspirations to provide increased services to Stansted Airport and Cambridge, that the provision of four-tracking between Coppermill and Broxbourne junctions, and inter-related additional platform provision at Liverpool Street and Stratford stations, should be viewed as a priority scheme which should not be delayed until Crossrail 2 is provided, but rather be delivered at the earliest opportunity in CP6 in order that: timetabling of three to four trains per hour from all suburban stations can be achieved; additional services to Stansted Airport can be achieved without jeopardising other services; capacity constraint issues be relieved; economic growth be supported; and modal shift be encouraged. 1.0 Background 1.1 In November 2014, Network Rail (NR) launched a consultation on its draft Anglia Route Study. Route Studies are the successor programme to the previous series of Route Utilisation Strategies (RUSs) and form part of the Long Term Planning Process (LTPP). 1.2 The LTPP consists of a number of different elements, which, when taken together, seek to define the future capability of the rail network. The individual elements are: Market Studies, which forecast future rail demand, and develop conditional outputs for future rail services, based on stakeholders‟ views of how rail services can support delivery of the market‟s strategic goals; Route Studies, which develop options for future services and for development of the rail network, based on the conditional outputs and demand forecasts from the market studies. These options are assessed against funders‟ appraisal criteria and presented as choices for funders in each of Network Rail‟s devolved Routes; Cross-boundary analysis, which considers options for services that run across multiple routes in order to ensure that consistent assumptions are made in respect of these services. 1.3 The current consultation relates to the second of the above bullet points. The document sets out the strategic vision for the future of the Anglia Route network over the next 30 years. 1.4 The Anglia Route itself is comprised of four major rail corridors, accounting for 1,426 track miles. These include: the Great Eastern Main Line (GEML), running from London Liverpool Street to Colchester, Ipswich and Norwich, together with associated branches; the West Anglia Main Line, (WAML) running from London Liverpool Street to Cambridge, Ely and Kings Lynn, and associated branches; the North London railways, including the North London Line (NLL) running from Stratford to Richmond and the Gospel Oak to Barking (GOB) line; the London, Tilbury and Southend, or Essex Thameside, line running from London Fenchurch Street to Southend and Shoeburyness. For the local context, the WAML and the Hertford East branch line are the parts of the Anglia Routes which runs through the district of East Herts. 1.5 A copy of the full Network Rail Draft Anglia Route Study consultation document (which includes a 13 page Executive Summary) is available via the link at the Background Papers section of this report. As the full consultation document runs to some 145 pages, this report therefore restricts itself to matters that could have the most potential impact on East Herts residents. The consultation closes on 3rd February 2015. 2.0 Report 2.1 The Draft Anglia Route Study document, part of the Long Term Planning Process (LTPP), considers the potential outputs required by the railway network within the Anglia Route in the forthcoming Control Period1 6 (2019-2024), as well as further ahead up to 2043. 2.2 The Route Study identifies a number of constraints across the network, the most significant of which is on-train crowding on peak services into London Liverpool Street and London Fenchurch Street. Other constraints examined include regional and suburban connectivity and access to diversionary routes. 2.3 Various Market Studies (see paragraph 1.2 above) have identified a range of conditional outputs relevant to the Anglia Route. The Draft Anglia Route Study identifies a range of such outputs (or choices) for funders for Control Period 6 (2019-2024) to address identified constraints, and these mainly comprise train lengthening and the provision of additional services to increase capacity in order to accommodate the growth in passenger and freight services whilst maintaining performance. 2.4 For the WAML, specifically, these include (at Table 5.19): WACO1 To provide sufficient capacity for passengers travelling into central London and other employment centres during peak hours, taking into account anticipated growth over the period to the end of CP6 (2023/2024) – West Anglia services. WACO3 To provide journey time improvement for services from both Cambridge and Stansted Airport to London Liverpool Street - West Anglia. 2.5 In the longer term, the „Long Term Planning Process‟ proposes a strategy to address the challenge of accommodating the projections for growth, outlined in the four Market Studies, for passenger and freight services through to 2043. 2.6 In this respect, the Draft Anglia Route Study emphasises that the stated conditional outputs are aspirations and not recommendations, and are conditional on being deliverable in a manner which represents both value-for-money and affordable to funders. 2.7 The Draft Anglia Route Study uses a baseline date of 2019 and references schemes to be implemented in current CP5, including: 1 Control Periods are the 5-year timespans into which Network Rail (NR) works for financial and other planning purposes. Each Control Period begins on 1 April and ends on 31 March to coincide with the financial year. Currently, NR is operating within Control Period 5 (2014 – 2019). Hertfordshire safety improvements (level crossings); transfer of certain West Anglia inner suburban service to TfL (not affecting stations in East Herts); and capacity enhancements in the Lea Valley to allow more services into Stratford. 2.8 References are also made to other schemes in development into CP6 and beyond including East West Rail (Central section), HS2, and Crossrail 2. 2.9 In respect of Anglia Route Study proposals for the West Anglia Main Line specifically, some of the CP6 options identified include: Platform/train lengthening to 12 cars (which for East Herts would include stations at: Hertford East, Ware and St Margarets, with other stations in Hertfordshire including: Rye House, Broxbourne, Cheshunt, Waltham Cross) coupled with two additional 4-car units on the Hertford East branch line (resulting in train lengths increasing from eight to 12 carriages). This would address capacity to London and other employment centres in peak periods; The procurement of two additional 4-car units lengthening peak Stansted Airport and Cambridge to London Liverpool Street services from 8 to 12-cars. Combined, the two above improvements would provide approximately an additional 16 vehicle arrivals in the peak hour to London Liverpool Street by the end of CP6, meeting the required passenger capacity for CP6 (conditional output WACO1a) on the outer suburban services into London Liverpool Street. Line speed increases to 100mph, for Journey Time Improvements for Cambridge/Stansted to London (however, the draft Route Study notes that journey times to London from both Stansted Airport and Cambridge cannot be improved without capacity interventions or alterations to the service structure on the West Anglia Main Line); Additional platforms at Liverpool Street/Stratford to address passenger entry/exit and also measures to improve vertical circulation at Liverpool Street, which is currently very constrained; Preparatory enabling works for four tracking between Coppermill Junction and Broxbourne Junction, including matters such as land take, level crossing closures, etc. 2.10 Further journey time improvements on services to Cambridge and Stansted Airport would depend on the ability to separate fast trains from slow trains south of Broxbourne. This is likely to require an additional pair of tracks between Broxbourne and Tottenham Hale (four tracking), the cost of which,