Infrastructure Victoria Second Container Port Advice
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Infrastructure Victoria Second Container Port Advice Port Strategic Transport Modelling Final | 2.5 4 April 2017 Todd Road / Cook Street / Webb Dock Drive / Westgate Freeway Port Strategic Transport Modelling Infrastructure Victoria Second Container Port Advice Project No: IS175000 Document Title: Port Strategic Transport Modelling Document No.: Final Revision: V2.5 Date: 4 April 2017 Client Name: Client No: Project Manager: John Richardson Author: John Richardson File Name: J:\IE\Projects\03_Southern\IS175000\06 Technical\IV Ports Advice VITM Modelling Report V2.5.docx Jacobs Group (Australia) Pty Limited ABN 37 001 024 095 Floor 11, 452 Flinders Street Melbourne VIC 3000 PO Box 312, Flinders Lane Melbourne VIC 8009 Australia T +61 3 8668 3000 F +61 3 8668 3001 www.jacobs.com © Copyright 2017 Jacobs Group (Australia) Pty Limited. The concepts and information contained in this document are the property of Jacobs. Use or copying of this document in whole or in part without the written permission of Jacobs constitutes an infringement of copyright. Limitation: This report has been prepared on behalf of, and for the exclusive use of Jacobs’ Client, and is subject to, and issued in accordance with, the provisions of the contract between Jacobs and the Client. Jacobs accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for, or in respect of, any use of, or reliance upon, this report by any third party. Document history and status Revision Date Description By Review Approved 1 31/01/2017 Limited to a list of model inputs for the purpose of J Richardson confirming all inputs. 2 10/03/2017 Modelling outputs added J Richardson A Newman 3 27/03/2017 Updated with Deloitte comments J Richardson A Newman 4 04/04/2017 Updated with IV comments J Richardson A Newman i Port Strategic Transport Modelling Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 4 2. Task............................................................................................................................................................. 5 2.1 Inputs to be updated .................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 Infrastructure upgrades ............................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.2 Demographic updates ................................................................................................................................. 7 2.1.3 Freight Movement Model updates ............................................................................................................... 9 3. Summary of results ................................................................................................................................. 13 4. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 18 ii Port Strategic Transport Modelling Important note about your report The sole purpose of this report and the associated services performed by Jacobs for Infrastructure Victoria (IV) is to undertake strategic transport modelling of various port scenarios in Melbourne to provide inputs to the economic modelling being undertaken by Deloitte. In preparing this report, Jacobs has relied upon, and presumed accurate, any information (or confirmation of the absence thereof) provided by IV and/or from other sources. Except as otherwise stated in the report, Jacobs has not attempted to verify the accuracy or completeness of any such information. If the information is subsequently determined to be false, inaccurate or incomplete then it is possible that our observations and conclusions as expressed in this report may change. Jacobs derived the data in this report from information sourced from IV (if any), the Department of Economic Development, Jobs Transport and Resources (DEDJTR) and/or available in the public domain at the time or times outlined in this report. The passage of time, manifestation of latent conditions or impacts of future events may require further examination of the project and subsequent data analysis, and re-evaluation of the data, findings, observations and conclusions expressed in this report. Jacobs has prepared this report in accordance with the usual care and thoroughness of the consulting profession, for the sole purpose described above and by reference to applicable standards, guidelines, procedures and practices at the date of issue of this report. For the reasons outlined above, however, no other warranty or guarantee, whether expressed or implied, is made as to the data, observations and findings expressed in this report, to the extent permitted by law. This report should be read in full and no excerpts are to be taken as representative of the findings. No responsibility is accepted by Jacobs for use of any part of this report in any other context. This report has been prepared on behalf of, and for the exclusive use of IV and Deloitte, and is subject to, and issued in accordance with, the provisions of the contract between Jacobs, Deloitte and IV. Jacobs accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for, or in respect of, any use of, or reliance upon, this report by any third party. 3 Port Strategic Transport Modelling 1. Introduction The scope of modelling works covered in this report is constrained to network wide modelling, for details on the port landside capacity analysis, refer to the Jacobs report “Port Landside Transport Modelling”. A summary of both pieces of work is listed below. Network wide modelling Strategic transport modelling of current and alternate port locations. Modelling covers the entire Melbourne metropolitan network, using the Victorian Integrated Transport Model (VITM). Outputs to be used for economic modelling by Deloitte. Landside capacity analysis Modelling of the intersections immediately outside of the port gates (Port of Melbourne) to inform the GHD capacity analysis report and Deloitte economic assessment. 4 Port Strategic Transport Modelling 2. Task To compare the operation of the transport network assuming different port locations. Provide inputs to the economic modelling being undertaken by Deloitte Limitations: VITM currently only has reference case setup for 2021, 2031 and 2046. The scenarios modelled with VITM are listed in Table 2-1. Scenario A1 models continued operation at Port of Melbourne in 2031, all other scenarios are at 2046. Scenarios B1 and B2 model overflow situations with some trade remaining at Port of Melbourne and a portion of the container trade moved to either Hastings or Bay West. Scenarios C1, C2 and C3 model all container trade at a single location. Within these scenarios are three sensitivity tests, B2 and C2 assume no new rail infrastructure at Hastings, thus reducing the rail mode share to the available capacity on the Stony Point line via Frankston. Scenario C1a includes a new road (referred to as Freight Link) to provide additional landside capacity at Webb Dock. Table 2-1: Scenarios to be modelled ID Year TEU (million) – International + Bass Strait Automotive & Rail mode share Bulk trade Swanson Webb Hastings Bay Total Dock Dock West A1 2031 3.0 2.0 + 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.4 As is 15% SD B1 2046 1.0 4.0 + 0.6 0.0 4.0 9.6 SD 10% SD, 20% BW B2 2046 1.0 4.0 + 0.6 4.0 0.0 9.6 SD 10% SD, 25% PoH B2a 2046 1.0 4.0 + 0.6 4.0 0.0 9.6 SD 10% SD, 5% PoH1 C1 2046 1.0 + 0.6 8.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 SD 15% SD, 10% WD C1a 2046 1.0 + 0.6 8.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 SD 15% SD, 10% WD C2 2046 0.0 0.0 + 0.6 9.0 0.0 9.6 As is 20% PoH C2a 2046 0.0 0.0 + 0.6 9.0 0.0 9.6 As is 3% PoH2 C3 2046 0.0 0.0 + 0.6 0.0 9.0 9.6 As is 15% BW 2.1 Inputs to be updated The following relate to inputs that are different to the DEDJTR reference case inputs: 1. Transport Network a. Road and Public Transport Network as per IV model Y2031_IV_PC_NEL_v1606103 and Y2046_IV_CMB_2RD_3RL_v1609064 b. Port connections as per Figure 2-1 and Figure 2-2. 2. Demographics – updated to allow for Fishermans Bend developments (see section 2.2), port employment updated as per Table 2-3. 1 Using existing rail infrastructure via the Frankston Line 2 Using existing rail infrastructure via the Frankston Line 3 North East Link is included in this scenario 4 This scenario includes OMR, North East Link, Melbourne Metro 2, City Loop Reconfiguration and Melbourne Airport Rail Link. 5 Port Strategic Transport Modelling 3. Freight Movement Model Parameters a. OD movement of containers as per Deloitte specification (see Table 2-6) b. Vehicle types as per intersection modelling (see Table 2-4) c. Time of day travel: based on intersection capacity analysis (see Table 2-5) 2.1.1 Infrastructure upgrades Bay West requires new road and rail infrastructure in order to connect it into the surrounding transport network. Based on work by GHD (see Figure 2-1), the VITM network has been updated with two new 4-lane road connections between Princes Freeway and Bay West. One road connects virtually directly into the Outer Metropolitan Ring Road (OMR) and Princes Freeway interchange (for north and westbound traffic). The second road connects to the Princes Freeway at the existing Ison Road interchange (for inner west / city bound traffic). Figure 2-1: Bay West transport connections (source: GHD) Scenarios that include international containers at Hastings trigger the upgrade to the Western Port Highway