6 X 10.Long New.P65

Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-13224-4 - History and Neorealism Edited by Ernest R. May, Richard Rosecrance and Zara Steiner Index More information

Index

9/11, 246, 248, 249, 250, 252 Agadir, 116 agency theory, 50, 71–74 absolute evil, 298 agenda absolute monarch, 41 ideological and, 203 absolute monarchies, 38 aggrandizement, 343, 363 absolutism, 84, 96 aggression, 19, 238 Abyssinia, 159, 168 aggressors, 10 academic elite agreement “Westernizing” and, 296 Anglo-American trade, 146 accords Anglo-German naval, 134 Mediterranean, 109, see also agreements: agreements Mediterranean Mediterranean, 108 Acheson, Dean, 237 naval limitation, 191 action agricultural production, 273 offensive, 199 aid actors American, 35 non-state, 52 air armada, 235 rational, 155 air cover unitary, 76, 130 Soviet 217 acts air forces, 132 irrational, 47 British and French, 138 Adenauer, Konrad, 310, 311, 312, 321 Air Raid Precaution (ARP), 138 administration air raids of Bush, 249, 250, 251, 252, 253, 255, German, 172 257, 265, see also Bush, George W. aircraft, 179, 239 of Clinton, 256, 257 military 230 of Obama, 256, 261, 265, 266 airlift of Truman, 310 Berlin 236 of Roosevelt, 146 airspace admirals Chinese 217 “treaty faction,” 190 Akhromeyev, Marshal (USSR), 304 Adriatic, 104 Al Qaeda, 246, 249, 251–55, 263 Serbia’s access to, 118 Albania, 116, 117, 120 advancement Albright, Madeleine, 265 intensive means of, 26 Alexander I, 299 advantages Alexander the Great, 201 long-term, 28 Ali, Mehemet, 23, see also Egypt adversary, 202 Alighieri, Dante, 339 intervention in, 249 alliance, 89 military action in, 251 German, 108, 119–121 Soviet occupation of, 300 Polish, 148 Africa, 19, 22 secret, 108

366

© in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-13224-4 - History and Neorealism Edited by Ernest R. May, Richard Rosecrance and Zara Steiner Index More information

Index 367

alliances, 89, 90, 104, 130, 132, 342, 347, Argentina, 43, 231 354, 360 armaments Anglo-Austrian, 90 accumulation of, 327 Anglo-Dutch, 90 naval and military, 232 Anglo-Japanese, 188 armed forces, 202 Austro-French, 90 arms Austro-Russian, 90 air cover and, 217 Bush and, 303 Soviet cut in, 280 Franco-Spanish, 90 arms race, 272, 279 Alsace-Lorraine, 25, 107 arms shipments ambiguity, 262 Soviet and, 227 ambition, 263 arms spending, 271 America, 18, 47, 166, 189, 361, see also army, 186, 187, 189 see also Britain, United States Germany, 191, 193, 194, 196, 198, incompetence of, 225 235, 353 American Fleet, 345 German 130, 178 American Pacific Fleet, 195 state of French, 146 American Philippines, 197 strength of German, 139 American politics, 1 Aron, Raymond, 247 American Revolutionary War, 99 arrangements Americans, 141, 146, 337 collective security, 101 participation of, 134 power, 110 analyses Arrow, Kenneth, 328 materialist 269 Art of War, 204, see also Clausewitz, Carl hypothetical and counterfactual, 58 von anarchy, 52, 80, 81, 85, 129, 348 artichoke theory, 9, see also Hitler, Adolf international, 78 artificial intelligence, 14 structural, 100, 102 artillery, 230 Andrássy, Julius, 108, see also Austria- Ash, Timothy Garton, 264 Hungary Asia, 3, 14, 22, 285 Andropov, Yuri, 273, 277, 280, 336, assassinations see also USSR 1932–36, 191 death of, 282 asset freeze Angell, Norman, 156 American, 196, see also Japanese assets: Anglo-French military talks American freeze of lack of, 178 assistance Anglo-German Payments American, 153 Agreement, 181 Association for the Monetary Union of Angola, 34, 300 Europe, 317 anomalies, 46, 52, 53, 75 assumptions generation of, 50 neorealist, 70 “ocean of,” 52 unitary actor, 68 Anschluss, 179, see also Austria-Germany Athenians, 29, 230, 234, 238 Anti-Comintern Pact, 168 Athens, 2, 228 anti-communism, 236 democratic, 43 Apis, 114, 121, see also Serbia atomic bomb, 238, 239, 345, 362 appeasement, 45, 106, 128, 132, 157, 161, atomic energy see also United Kingdom peaceful uses of, 312 proponent of, 156 atomic warheads, 213 appreciation attacks February strategic, 140 9/11 terrorist, 249 Araki Nobuyoshi, 324 intercontinental Arbatov, Alexei, 282 terrorist, 246 Archduke, see also Franz Ferdinand Attlee, Clement, 236 death of, 127 attrition Aretin, K. O. von, 96 war of, 144

368 Index

audacity, 227 Balkans, 104, 105, 108, 113, 116, 118 audience costs, 45, 46 Russia’s role in, 110 Ausgleich agreement, 106, see also Baltic states, 26, 183 Austria-Hungary bandwagoning, 104, 123, 128 Austerlitz, 226 vs. balance, 31 Austria, 9, 16, 24, 25, 33, 38, 39, 93, 97, Bangladesh, 285 105, 106, 108, 123, 126, 127, 162, banks 167, 180, 347, 359 regulation of, 363 declares war on Serbia, 126 bargaining EC membership and, 319 distributional, 65 Austria-Hungary, 103, 104, 109, 111, 113, Barnhart, Michael, 345 121, 347, 355 Battle of Britain, 175, 183 as great power, 122 battle cruisers, 139 Austrian gold battleships, 186 seizure of, 134 Beck, Ludwig, 176 Austrian legitimacy, 18 resignation of, 176 Austrian War Beck, Colonel, 17 of 1740–48 35 Beck, Friedrich, 112 Austro-Prussian War, 24 behavior autarky aggressive, 105 strategy of, 164 Hitler’s, 149 authority, 309 international, 352 delegation of, 73 of Iran, 262 information-sharing, 57 of Japan, 325 Axelrod, Robert, 55, 60 non-strategic, 329 Axis, 184, see also Germany, Italy offensive, 131 “axis of evil,” 255 behavior change, 259, 262 Beijing, 26, 192 Bacon, Francis, 241 Belgium, 23, 88, 101, 126, 148, Bad Godesberg, 170 194, 311 Baghdad, 244 German invasion of, 126 Baker, James, 303 Belgrade, 121, 124 balance, 36, 129 benefits international 358 material, 270 land, 139 Berchtesgaden, 157, 170 military, 134, 346 Berchtold, Leopold, 116 naval, 139, 140 Berlin, 2, 4, 115, 118, 120, 123, 347 balance of interests, 294 warning to, 169 balance of power, 3, 4, 6, 10, 20, 23, 29, Berlin embassy, 177 33, 92, 93, 129, 130, 131, 137, 145, Berlin Wall, 319, 349 155, 166, 177, 179, 182, 201, 227, fall of, 317 234, 294, 298, 304, 307, 323, 339, Bessarabia, 183 342, 346, 360, 362 Bethmann-Hollweg, Theobald von, 126, in 1938 vs. 113, 346 159 Asian, 256 big business, 307 diplomacy and, 306 bin Laden, Osama, 246, 250 triumph of, 347 bipolarity vs. quest for order, 93 US–Soviet, 67 balance of trade, 182 Bismarck, Otto von, 336, 354 balancing, 52, 104, 106, 108, 123, 128, Bismarckian Concert, 25 137, 145, 146, 254 black boxes, 130 external, 155 Black Hand, 121 internal, 155 Blackwill, Robert, 243 vs. bandwagoning, 102 Blair, Tony, 252, 333 Balkan League, 116 “blank check,” 124 Balkan Wars, 103, 116 Germany and, 347

Index 369

blitzkrieg tactics, 183 British, the, 150, 151, 177, 238 blockade, 144 Brüning, Heinrich, 161 Berlin 236 Brussels Pact, 311 economic, 140 Brzezinski, Zbigniew, 243 Blomberg, Field-Marshal Werner von, 176 Bucharest, 119 blow buck passing, 104, 128, 132 German knock-out 178 vs. balancing, 115 knock-out, 132, 133, 138, 145 buck-passing, 106, 130, 137, 145, 146, Board of Trade, 142 147 Boer War, 264 Budapest, 107 Bogomolov, Oleg, 282 Budrass, Lutz, 142 Bohemia, 111, 113, 123 Bukovina, 183 Bolingbroke, Viscount, 329 Bulgaria, 114, 116, 121, 165, 301 Bolshevik Revolution, 188 “Bulldog Britain,” 346 Bolsheviks, 288, 350, 352 bulldog spirit, 17 Bolshevism, 163 Bundesbank, 317, 318, 320 bomb bureaucracy terrorist, 242 of Soviet Union, 274 bombers, 175 Burián, Istvan, 120 bombing Bush Doctrine, 250 German, 132 Bush White House, 261, 262, border see also administration: of Bush Czech, 170 Bush, George H. W., 353 Manchurian, 193 Bush, George W., 240, 244, 248, 253, 332, Bosnia, 111, 121 333 annexation of, 120 Butterfield, Herbert, 79 Bosnia-Herzegovina, 103, 107, 108, 112, 113, 114, 117, 120, 123 cabinet, 132, 136, 151–52, 169 Bosnian crisis Cadogan, Alexander, 148, 150, 153, 177 1908–09, 103 Calabria, 88 Botero, Giovanni, 329 calculation Bovin, Alexander, 282 long-range, 93 Brauchitsch, Walther von, 176 material and, 292 Brezhnev, Leonid, 305 Cambodia, 300 Britain, 4, 17, 24, 31, 43, 47, 83, 88, 91, Vietnamese withdrawal from, 300 93, 94, 95, 97, 105, 108, 109, 113, Cambrai, Congress, 91 115, 126, 131, 132, 134, 137, 140, campaign 144, 151, 153, 156, 160, 162, 166, Allied offensive, 137 168, 174, 189, 194, 232, 311, 314, Anglo-Dutch, 94 319, 324, 344, 346, 358 rearmament, 134 aircraft production 179 retaliation, 138 appeasement and, 182 strategic bombing, 138 attacks on, 134 Canada, 165, 233 budget rebate of, 316 capabilities, 45, 153, 268 and great power, 153 dangerous and new, 256 and peace, 353 military, 244 and Poland, 150 capacities population density of, 165 France’s defensive, 139 British Army, 178 Japan’s naval, 196 British Empire, 141, 163, 166 capital, 12, 13, 36 and difficulties, 167 capitalism, 288 British Expeditionary Forces, Caribbean, 42 expansion of, 138 Carr, E.H., 55, 66, 156, 157, 161, 182, British Indian Army, 206 233, 337 British leaders cartels stereotyped image of, 154 destroying of, 310

370 Index

Carter, Jimmy, 34, 40, 243, 314, 330 chromium, 166 Castro, Fidel, 32 Church, 11 Catherine the Great, 16 Churchill, Winston, 149, 153, 160, 172, Caucasus, 162 179, 233, 348, 353, 354 caution, 104 war and, 182 Ceausescu, Nicolae, 301 Iron-Curtain speech of, 298 Cederman, Lars-Erik, 41 City of London, 181 Central Asia, 162 city-states US bases in, 249 Italian, 88 Chamberlain, Neville, 17, 18, 19, 132, civil war 135, 136–37, 145, 148, 150, 153, 157, China and, 236 168, 172, 173, 177, 182, 184 civilizations and Hitler, 135, 136 353, 354, 358 clash of, 255 Munich and, 346 class struggle, 297 Chancellery, German Clausewitz, Carl Von, 204, 205 military, 110 clerics Chancellor of the Exchequer, 181 radical and, 265 change, 7, 79, see also role of change Clinton, Bill, 34, 240, 244, 248 behavior, 257 Clive, Robert, 20 domestic, 31 coal, 308, 311 peaceful, 156 coalition revolutionary, 351 Bismarck’s, 25 role of, 80 great-power, 27 Chavez, Hugo, 36 international, 253 cheating, 67 multipolar, 25 Chen Jian, 216, 219 coastal cities, 222 Cheney, Richard, 252, 261 cobalt, 166 and speech, 252 codes Chernenko, Konstantin, 34, 277 moral and, 341 Chernyaev, Anatoly, 282, 297, 302, 304 cognitive learning, 268 Chiang Kai-shek, 211 coherence Chiefs of Staff, 177, 178 change in degree of, 350 Chile, 37 domestic, 31 China, 3, 14, 15, 19, 27, 34, 92, 168, 175, cohesiveness 186, 189, 192, 203, 212–13, 220, 227, domestic, 41 231, 236, 249, 256–58, 262, 285, 356, Colbert, Jean Baptist, 95 359 Cold War, 5, 31, 52, 63, 236, 240, 243, army of, 346 244, 246, 248, 255, 257, 267–68, 277, help of, 346 279, 282, 294, 305, 311, 317, 321, intervention in Korea, 237 331, 333, 348, 355 in Korea, 226 origins of, 337 Japan’s position in, 197 collective security Korea’s proximity to, 225 US commitment to, 241 North Vietnam and, 226 colonies, 20, 21, 22 rise of, 264 American, 20 Soviet forces and, 226 British, 95 troops and, 225 Colvin, Ian, 180 United States and, 216 combat divisions, 213 Chinese, Communist Party, 3 US 238 military accomplishments of combat troops, 225 Chinese Nationalists, 191 commitment Chinese People’s Volunteers, (CPV), 217 from Britain, 178 Chirac, Jacques, 254 of Soviet Union, 268 Choiseul, Étienne François, 20 Common Agricultural Policy, 313 Chōshū, 186 Common Defense, The, 242

Index 371

Commons, House of, 151 Constantinople, 108, 117 communism, 312 straits of, 110, 113, 114 fall of, 267 constructivism, 48, 55, 69 communist movements, 267 social, 81 Communist parties consumption France and, 236 energy, 228 Italy and, 236 containment, 250, 255 Communist Party of the Soviet Union continent of Europe, 42 (CPSU), 34 control 27th CPSU Congress, 293 of arms, 34 competition, 278 Coolidge, Calvin, 8 absence of, 264 Cooper, Duff, 169, 171, 172 competitors cooperation, 4, 7, 21, 57, 66, 81, economic, 236 155, 267 compromise “realist theory,” 65 with Hitler, 135 Franco-Russian, 117 computers, 14 institutionalized, 53, 54, 64 concerns monetary, 314 relative-gains, 62 patterns of, 54 Concert of Europe, 23–27, 348 “sucker’s payoff,” 65 concerts, 360 coordinated leadership conference absence of, 345 Italian proposal for, 151 Copeland, Dale, 126 Conference on Security and Cooperation, copper, 163 307 Corcyra, 2 conflict, 20, 22, 87, 282 Corinthians, 230 conflicts, 155 Coser, Lewis, 42 distributional, 66 cost and benefits, 153 political, 342 Council of Europe, 307 in Third World, 272 Gorbachev and, 301 confrontation, 196 Council of Ministers, 63, 313, 316, Congress of Berlin, 107 see also Europe 1878, 108 counterbalance, 45, 47 Congress of Vienna, 105, 107 counterinsurgency, 264 Congresses, 91 coup, 176 conquest against Hitler, 152 benefits of, 11 anti-Gorbachev, 283 Conrad, General, 111, 112, 114, 116, Court of Justice, European, 313 117, 118, 125, 127, see also Austria- Crimean War, 24 Hungary crises conscription, 171 1938 Czech, 131 declaration of, 138 Bosnian, 114 opposition to, 149 Bulgarian, 108 consensus escalation of, 127 ideological, 24 First Moroccan, 109 consequences of July 111, 122 domestic, 111 Munich, 132 Conservative Party, British, 131 Second Moroccan, 115 conservatives, 23, 24 Croatia, 104, 111, 123 Austrian and Prussian, 24 Cromwell, Oliver, 95 Russian, Austrian, and German, 24 military dictatorship of, 335 considerations Cuba, 13–14, 71, 90 insititutional, 353 invasion of, 14 longer-term, 11 Russia’s Missile base in normative, 353 Cuban Crisis, 2, 355

372 Index

currency, 363 delegation, 71, 74, 349 adoption of single, 331 form of, 77 of Europe, 318 theories of, 76 foreign, 143 Delhi, 26 currency of power, 28 Delors Committee, 318 customs union, 313 Delors Report, 318, 319, 320 Cyprus Delors, Jacques, 315, 317, 318, 321, 350 EC membership and, 319 demilitarization, 298 Czechoslovakia, 33, 133, 137, 148, 151, democracies, 13, 38, 39, 333, 352 157, 159, 167, 174, 177, 179, 180, liberal, 34, 38, 40 302 Western, 163 Anglo-French defense of, 178 democratic peace theory, 32, 52 and Britain, 136 democratization, 249 forces of, 179 Deng Hua, 219, 220 loss of, 135 Denmark, 97, 314 revolution of, 349 in 24, 109 sell-out of, 153 density Soviet invasion of, 297 population, 165 Czechoslovak-Soviet Pact, 174 Depression, 161 Dessler, David, 49 Dahlerus, Burger, 150, 151 détente, 109, 272, 290, 296 Daladier, Édouard, 17, 133, 151, 170, 171 Austro-Russian, 114, 115 Danzig, 149, 159, 162 détente plus, 281, 282 Dardanelles, 113 and power line, 280 Darfur, 265 and scenario, 280 Dashichev, Vyacheslav, 282 and strategy, 280 de Gaulle, Charles, 313, 331 détentes, 104 de la Warr, 171 determinants de Molina, Luis, 339 domestic, 130 de Vitoria, Francisco, 339 economic and military, 130 debate determinism relative-gains, 62 degree of, 323 debts deterrence, 250, 255, 256, 259, 262, 298 war, 143 British, 135 decentralization, 273 failure of, 262 deception, 205 strategy of, 250 decision-making deutsche mark, 307, 314 rationality of, 340 abolition of, 320 decline development prevention of, 341 economic, 165 decolonization, 165 linear 348 defeat, 256 deviations Japan’s, 198 from power, 3 defense dialectic, 91 of England and France, 178 Dickinson, G. Lowes, 337 of Europe, 310 dictators, 159 expenditures for, 281 difference Soviet, 217 method of, 46, see also similarity: terms of air, 140 method of US, 271 difficulties defensive realism, 3, 104, 109, 117, 119, economic, 134 122, 123, 326, 341, 343, 347 Germany’s production, 131 falsifiability of,343 supply, 140 vs. offensive realism, 3 Diktat, 171 deficit Dimitrijevic, Dragutin, 110 democratic, 63 diplomacy, 158, 159, 342, 347

Index 373

diplomats, 89 Eastern Europe, 33, 267, 291, 303 direct investment Eastern Front, 147 foreign, 363 ecological disasters, 282 disagreements economic autarchy, 272 army-navy, 188, see also Japan economic decline, 268 discord in Soviet Union, 270, 275 army-navy, 197 economic development disorder Soviet, 295 zone of, 93 economic downturns, 351 Disraeli, Benjamin, 21 economic growth, 271, 351, 362 dissuasion, 256, 257, 258, 259 economic order doctrine of, 349 liberal and economic, 257 United States and, 259 economic productivity, 272 dive-bombers, 175 economic strength, 12, 238, 307 divisions, 138 economies, 316 domestic, 41 Chinese and Soviet, 213 German regular army, 133 economist approach, 317 French, 173 economy of Czechoslovakia, 174 of Germany, 180 of Wehrmacht, 174 of Soviet Union, 276 doctrine ECSC, see European Coal and Steel of preemption, 251, 252, 261 Community (ECSC) dollar ecumencial realism, 342 depreciation of, 314 unfalsifiability of,343 domain, 270, 290 educational systems of gains, 39 strength of, 363 of losses, 40 success of, 28 unfavorable 357 Egypt, 19, 35, 88 domain of gain, 27, 356, 357 Eisenhower, Dwight, 238, 239, 344 domain of loss, 10, 27, 356, 357, El Salvador, 300 359, 361 elections, 188 domestic politics, 6, 8, 37, 65, 68, 106, elites, 33 323, 343, 351–52, 357, 358, 359, Elman, Colin, 29 360–61 Elysée Treaty, 313 importance of, 123 embargo survival within, 328 arms, 146 dominance Emperor Hirohito, 198, 345 position of, 348 Emperor Meiji United States and, 234 death of, 188 doves, 33 Emperor Paul, 16 Downs, George, 62 empire, 22, 162, 269, 271, 355 Doyle, Michael W., 43 American territorial and, 239 Dual Monarchy, 106, see also Austria- evil, 40 Hungary myths of, 37 survival of, 347 pursuit of, 332 Duma, 110, see also Russia Spanish, 94 Dundas, Henry, 95 emulation, 10 Durham Report, 21 endogeneity, 76 Dutch East Indies, 194 Problem of, Dutch Republic, 92 enforcement decentralized, 57 Eagleburger, Lawrence, 243 engagement, 257 East Germans, 349 engines, internal combustion, 166 East Germany, 303 England, 16, 20, 23, 25, 42, 92, 109, 174, East Indies, 193 361, see also Britain Eastern bloc, 301 Enlightenment, 86

374 Index

entente in Brussels, 321 Anglo-French, 115 states of, 354 equality exchanges diplomatic, 289 of technology, 272 political and, 293 expansion, 20, 21, 22, 280, 362 equilibria economic, 21 multiple, 72 external and military, 12 equilibrium intensive, 25, 26, 27 European, 93 intensive vs. extensive, 16 era internal, 21 ethical standards, 293 internal and economic, 12 Ethiopia, 237, 278, 300 internal and external, 18 Cuban military forces in, 300 territorial, 163, 347, 362 EU, see European Union (EU) Expeditionary Force, 138 Euratom, 313 expenditures euro (currency unit), 14, 350 military and, 242 Europe, 4, 8, 14, 26, 28, 33, 63, 285, 312 explanation army of, 310 baseline, 48 Central, 38 of dissuasion, 257 conflict in,331 explanations contemporary, 330 materialist and, 272, 296 defense organization of, 311 of materialists, 278, 283 economic and political power of, 309 unit-level, 29 integration in, 308, 319 exports market and, 309 German, 141 southern, 38 external aggrandizement, 11 states of, 308 unification of,312 Falklands War, 43 united, 5 fascism, 38 European allies Fascist Italy, 231, 237 of America, 251 Fashoda Crisis, 101 European Atomic Energy Community. Fearon, James, 45, 65 313, see Euratom Federal Republic of Germany, 285, 321 European Coal and Steel Community, unification of, 307 310, 311, 313, 321 federalism, 319 European Commission, 63, 321, 349 Federalists, 42 European Community (EC), 63, 307, 319 feedback expansion of membership of, 314 positive, 47 membership in, 319 Felmy, Helmuth, 175 European Concert, 90, 101, Ferdinand, Franz, 104, 110, 115, see also Concert of Europe 118, 120, 121, see also Austria- European Council, 314, 318, 319 Hungary European Court of Justice, 72 assassination of, 124 European Currency unit (ECU), 314 Ferdinand, Sophie, 124 European Defense Community, 310, 311 Ferguson, Niall, 344, 345 Treaty, 311 Ferris, John, 153 European Economic Field Force divisions Community, 313 Fighter Command, 132, 137, 178 European Monetary System (EMS), 315, finances, 142 316 Finland, 183 European Monetary Union (EMU), 67, First Balkan War, 104 307 First French Republic, 39 European Parliament, 63, 321 First World War, 22, 27, 116, 188, 189, European Union (EU), 14, 26, 53, 254, 345, see World War I 307, 321, 350, 352, 360, 363 Japan’s entry into, 188

Index 375

Fischer, Fritz, 162 French Revolution, 21, 88, 99, 348, 350 fleet, 136 frictions fleet carriers Czech–German, 121 Japan’s, 197 Fritsch, Werner von, 176 folk theorem, 71 Fromm, Friedrich, 164 Fomin, Alexander, 2 frontier force Germany’s eastern and, 179 military, 244 Führer, 135, 153, see also Hitler, Adolf non-use of, 298 and European peace settlement, 135 resorting to, 226, 303 Funk, Walther, 141 resorts to, 7 future use of, 305, 356 “shadow of,” 65 use or threat of, 294 forces, 267, 269 Gaddis, John Lewis, 253 American, 63, 265 gain, 40, 362 Chinese, 218 external, 21 ground, 232 long term, 25 Japanese, 188 gains military, 104 distribution of, 61 Soviet, 193 long-term, 25 superior, 204 relative, 61, 64, 67, 69 Turkish, 117 unequal, 62 Foreign Office, 150 gains from trade, 19 foreign policy, 33, 35, 36, 279, 319, 332 Galicia, 117, 123, see also Poles Habsburg, 121 gambler, 228, 230, 233, 234, of Soviet Union, 267, 271, 275, 279, 240, 245 281, 283 realists and, 236 theory, 47 game US, 243 constant-sum, 22, 26 Foreign Policy Engineering, 241 mixed-motive, 55, 57 France, 4, 9, 16, 17, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 30, variable or increasing sum, 22 32, 33, 35, 39, 42, 47, 83, 88–91, 92, zero-sum, 20 94, 97, 108, 109, 114, 123, 126, 127, game theorists, 14 131, 135, 137, 140, 145, 150, 151–52, game theory, 43, 71, 77 160, 167, 174, 194, 232, 246, 254, Gamelin, General Maurice, 171, 177, 308–09, 311, 331, 345, 352, 358 see also France aircraft production and, 179 gas masks, 172 the franc and, 316 Gates, Robert, 243, 280 motivation of, 325 GATT, 57, see General Agreement on officials of, 317 Tariffs and Trade (GATT) population density of, 165 GDP, see gross domestic product (GDP) Franco-Prussian War General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade of 1870–71, 25, 35 (GATT), 53 Frederick the Great, 9, 16, 18, 28, genrō, 188, see also Japan see also Prussia Genscher, Hans-Dietrich, 316, 317 1763 Peace of Paris, 16 geopolitical position, 271 Free Democrats, 317 Georgia, 264, 303 free riders, 10 Russia’s military intervention in, 264 Freedman, Lawrence, 251 German Confederation, 101 freedom of choice, 301 German Democratic Republic, 301, 307 East Germans and, 303 German policy freedom of speech, 40 defensive character of, 127 French Empire, 163, 166 German Reich, 96, 162, 184 French National Assembly, 310 Germans, 126, 162 and treaty, 311 Sudeten, 168, 169

376 Index

Germany, 4, 17, 22, 25, 28, 31, 33, 35, 87, 298, 299, 300, 301, 302, 303–05, 306, 103, 109, 113, 115, 117, 118, 123, 349, 353, 354, 355, 359, 360, 364 124, 127, 132, 133, 134, 137, 138, aides of, 305 141–44, 147, 156, 163, 165, 168, 173, “breathing space,” 280 175, 179, 194, 232, 235, 236, 237, conflict resolution, 305 246, 263, 307, 310, 313, 316, 317, disarmament and, 305 321, 330, 335, 344, 353, 358–59 joint Soviet–West German declaration, aircraft production and, 179 303 alliance with, 195 policy of, 301 and Atlantic alliance, 311 political miracles and, 305 attack of, 346 speech to the United Nations and, 306 attacks on Soviets and, 183 and travel to Europe, 285 economy of, 309, 312 use of force and, 304 encirclement of, 141 Western leaders and, 306 expansion of, 344 Göring, Hermann, 150, 161, 175, 180, hegemonic ambitions and, 347 181 deutsche mark, 350 government revenues Nazi, 47 military, 240 occupation in, 311 governments overpopulated, 163 democratic, 43 population density of, 165 liberal-democratic, 38 post-Cold War and, 330, 333 stable, 43 rearmament of, 310 Gowa, Joanne, 60, 61 reunification of, 303, 304 grand strategy Russia and, 345 British, 153 strength of, 133 change in British, 139 ultimatum to, 150 China and, 258 under Adolf Hitler, 346 Grant, Ulysses S., 44 unification of, 267, 317, 319, 320, 350 Great Britain, 11, 19, 38, 39, 46, 191, 194, Weimar, 29 348, see Britain, England Ghibellines, 44, see also Guelphs Great Depression, 19, 233, 236, 265 Gilbert, Mark, 316 Great Man theory, 354 Gilpin, Robert, 60 Great Northern War, 97 Giscard d’Estaing, Valéry, 314–15, 317 great powers, 7, 15, 26, 47, 283, 342–49, Gisevius, Hans, 176 351 glasnost, 354 concert of, 5 global primacy expansionist and, 263 and America, 256 Great War, 131, 348, see also First World globalization, 6, 286, 363 War, World War I Glorious Revolution, 92, see also England greatness goals shortcut to, 269 long-term, 24 Greece, 2, 23, 101, 116, 142, 147, 236 non-security, 130 Greenwood, Arthur, 151 short-term, 24 Grey, Edward, 115, 118 Godesberg, 131, 135, 136, 137 Grieco, Joseph, 61, 63, 65, 67, 70 Goerdeler, Carl, 177 Grishin, Victor, 274 gold, 143 Gromyko, Andrei, 281, 304 United Kingdom and, 181, 182 gross domestic product, 228, US gold standard gross national product, 354 abandonment of, 314 Grotius, Hugo, 339 Goldstein, Avery, 258, 291–93 ground warfare goods technology of, 230 stocks of, 19 group Gorbachev, Mikhail S., 34, 267, 269, higher-status, 286 270–81, 289, 290–93, 294, 295, 297, growth

Index 377

export-led, 21 Henderson, Sir Nevile, 175, 177 growth rate Hess, Rudolf, 165 economic, decline in Soviet Union, 276 hierarchy, 5, 7 guarantee power, 341 militarily worthless, 159 status, 285, 287, 290 Polish, 147, 148 High Authority, 311 Romania, 17 and the ECSC, 311 Guatemala, 37 high-politics bargain, 320 Guelphs, 44 history, 306 guerrilla war, 265 counter-factual, 136 guerrillas international, 80 anti-communist, 34 Hitler, Adolf, 9, 16, 17, 18, 31, 35, 43, 47, communist and, 236 112, 128, 131, 132, 134–37, 140, 141, Gulf states, 166, 362 142, 148, 149–81, 184, 344, 348, 350, Gulf War, 253 353, 354, 364 attack on Stalin, 183 Haass, Richard, 248 Berlin Sportpalast speech, 172 Habsburg Monarchy, 84, 89, 97, 103, bluff and, 173 see also Austria,-Hungary concessions of, 173 punishment of Serbia, 125 confrontation with Bolshevism, 163 Hagan, J, 32 Four Year Plan, 180 Hainan Island, 193, 194 gambler and, 182 Halder, Franz, 176 German opposition to, 177 Halifax, Viscount, 136, 147, 148–53 increase offensive capability of, 178 Halt in Belgrade, 126 megalomania, 158 hard currency Mussolini and, 173 Germany and, 180 and negotiation, 151 reserves and, 181 opposition to, 176 hard power, 265, 266 planned coup against, 176 overuse of, 264 policies of, 353 Harding, Warren, 228, 230, 330, 358 realism and, 182, 183 Harriman, Averell, 238, 337 and territory, 19 Hart, Basil Liddell, 322 theatrics and, 172 Haslam, Jonathan, 348 United States and, 345 Hassner, Pierre, 255 unrealistic threats of, 168 Haushofer, Karl, 165 views of United States, and, 184 Hawaii, 197 Ho Chi Minh, 201, see also Vietnam Hawaiian attack, see Pearl Harbor Hobbes, Thomas, 228, 337 hawks, 33, 40, 42, see also doves Hobsbawm, Eric, 22 hedging strategy, 258 Hoffmann, Stanley, 78 hegemon, 230, 238 Holland, 9, 194, 352 Germany’s desire to be, 126 Holy Roman Empire, 87, 96, 101, 339, global, 236 347 hegemonic expansion Honecker Erich, 301 absence of, 324 Hoover, Herbert, 330, 358 hegemonic status Hore-Belisha, Leslie, 171 Germany and, 127, see also hegemon: horizons Germany’s desire to be longer-term, 361 hegemony, 3, 15, 78, 101, 155, 326 short-term, 361 American, 253 Hossbach Memorandum, 167 British, 101 Hötzendorf, Conrad von, 103 regional, 342, 348 Hoyos, Alexander, 125 Helsinki agreement Huang Hua, 34 Basket Three, 302 Hughes, Charles Evans, 232 Helsinki Final Act, 304 Hull, Cordell, 355

378 Index

Hungarians, 104, 106, 109 ideological, 352 Hungary, 24, 33, 106, 109, 175, 274, 302 psychological, 352 border of, 349 short-term, 22 Huntington, Samuel P., 242 Inchon, 214 Hurricane Katrina, 264 independence Hussein, Saddam, 39, 40, 43, 73, 244, degree of, 349 251, 252, 253, 260, 261, 262, 352 India, 15, 19, 20, 92, 109, 285, 362 and regime, 255 Indochina, 193, 331 hydrogen bomb, 239 French, 195, 196 Hyland, William, 243 industrial base, 220 hyperpower, 246, 259 Industrial Intelligence Centre (IIC), 135, American, 247 140 hypothesis industrial production, 212 social creativity, 293, see also strategy: Industrial Revolution, 11, 20, 23, 28 social creativity and infantry, 225 inferiority, 306 idealism Germany’s, 159 liberal, 55 military, 131 ideas, 10, 130 inflation, 141, 181, 314 force of, 335 price of oil and, 314 history of, 337 influence, 360 treatment of, 325 East European sphere of, 162 ideational theorists, 268 Soviet, 292 identity, 284, see also SIT (social identity sphere of, 272 theory) influences of a group, 285 hierarchical, 360 positive, 306 ideological and domestic, 348 Soviet 291, 297 internal, 350 of Soviet Union, 267, 269 information, 39, 55, 56, 57 ideology, 6, 10, 13, 17, 130, 297, 306, 341, insufficient, 45 342, 350, 351 provision of, 57 domestic, 342, 352 scarce, 55 economic, 94 scarcity of, 57, see also information: influence of, 298 scarce Marxist-Leninist, 281 Innsbruck, University of, 120 Stalin and, 336 inspections Ikenberry, G. John, 247 international, 260 IMF, see International Monetary Fund instability, 343 (IMF) institution, 309 imminence institutional frameworks and regimes, 8 criterion of, 251 institutional theorists, 52 impasse institutional theory, 50–77 of 1941, 196 challenges to, 50 catastrophic, 188 independent explanatory power of, 70 interservice, 195 modern, 53 Imperial Army, 186, 187, 189, 198, 199, problem of, 51 345 refutation of, 59 vs. Imperial Navy, 185 institutions, 15, 54, 56, 79, 81, 341, 349, Imperial Navy, 189, 193, 194, 196, 198, 350, 352, 360 199, see also Japan adherence to, 343 “eight-eight” building program, 189 domestic, 36, 46, 350 and ferry service, 194 economic, 247, 248 imperial necessity, 19 endogenous, 50 imperialism, 37, 101 European, 350 incentives European multilateral, 310

Index 379

independent effects of, 72 British, 126 international, 39, 53, 54, 63, 67, 68, 69, Chinese, 212 265, 308, 349 French, 168 multilateral, 307, 349 Russo-French, 98 persistence of, 77 Soviet, 33, 198 role of, 59 invasion, 223 security, 57 German, 159 stability of, 73 IR theory, see also international relations insularity liberal, 36 exceptions to, 324 rationalist, 44 insurgency Iran, 27, 32, 37, 41, 166, 250, 255, 258, in Iraq, 349 261, 262, 263 Sunni-dominated, 260 Islamist, 45 intelligence uprising in, 261 British air, 138 Iraq, 73, 166, 240, 246, 250, 251, 252, British and French, 130 261, 263, 265, 344 British military, 133 Ba’athist, 40, 45 French, 133 insurgency in, 255 intentions, 2, 13, 45, 55, 153, 259 occupation in, 331 vs. power, 2 UN economic sanctions on, 73 interdependence, 38, 267, 272 Iraq War, 263, 264 economic, 39, 343 Ireland, 314, 363 interest rates, 45 Iron curtain, 297 interests iron ore, 163, 180 class, 348 Ironside, General Edmund, 177 common, 37 irredentism conflicts of, 65 Italian, 123 power, 348 Ishiwara Kanji, 192 internal affairs Islamists non-intervention in, 298 radical, 35 internal growth, 11 island state, 11 internal resources Ismay, General, 38 mobilization of, 167 isolation, 4, 352 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 53, international, 290 235 isolationism, 235, 343 resources, 363 “Fortress America,” 235 international norms, 305 Israel, 32, 35 international organizations, Israeli lobby, 323 see also organizations issues US engagement in, 236 distributional, 76, see also conflicts: international politics, 15 distributional game of, 19 Isvolski, Alexander, 110 international relations, 7, 15, 49 Italian Mediterranean fleet, 175 Hobbesian approach to, 298 Italians, 104 “liberal,” 52 Italy, 21, 33, 90, 97, 105–06, 108, 116, theorists of, 340 117, 120, 144, 163, 165, 168, 232, United States and, 232 311, 313 international security, 247, 248 leaders of, 316 international status, 288 officials of, 317 Soviet decline in, 290 international system, 15 Jachtenfuchs, Markus, 320 architecture of, 323 Japan, 4, 14, 18, 19, 26, 27, 31, 108, 163, internet use, 14 168, 175, 185, 189, 190, 191, 231, intervention, 189 232, 235, 238, 281, 324, 335, 344, American, 35 345, 353, 355, 358, 359

380 Index

Japan (cont.) Kim Il-Sung, 214, 212, 214, 236, 237, 346 democratic, 12 Kim Jong-Il, 260, 261, 362 imperial, 9 King Alexander, 110 insular state and, 324 King Peter, 110 leaders of, 191 Kissinger, Henry, 34, 158, 160, 237, 243, Meiji, 186 255, 289 population density of, 165 Kohl, Helmut, 297, 298, 316, 317, 318, relationship with China, 191 319, 320, 321, 331, 350 Japanese assets Konoye, Fumimaro, 355 American freeze of, 196 Korea, 186, 189, 211, 212, 222, 223, 227, Japanese defeat 239, 241 along Russian border, 193 38th parallel, 212 Jefferson, Thomas, 42 invasion and, 237 Jenkins, Roy, 314 Korea, South, 222, 223, 227 Jervis, Robert, 290 38th parallel, 212 Jews, 162, 163 expelling the United States from, 224 Jodl, Alfred, 173, 174 intervention in, 203 John Paul II, 5 North Korean invasion of, Johnson, Dominic, 160 United States in, 224 Johnson, Louis, 235, 238 US access to, 223 Johnson, Lyndon, 42, 242, 332 US aircraft and, 261 Joseph, Franz, 104, 106, 108–12, 115, 116, US presence in, 215 117, 118, 120, 126 Korean airliner judgments Russia shooting down, 291 action, 241, 244 Korean War, 203, 310, 344, 346, 358 instrumental, 241 Kosovo, 240, 248 reality, 241 Krasner, Stephen, 60, 65 value, 241 Krauthammer, Charles, 248 July Crisis, 347 Kristallnacht, 149 Jupiter missiles, 1 Krosigk, Schwerin von, 134, 135, 181 Kuomintang, 209, 346 Kadar, Janos, 274 Kurile Islands, 281 Kagan, Donald, 340 Kuwait, 244, 353 Kagan, Robert, 240, 255 Kwangtung province, 193 Kahnemann Daniel, 10, 161 Kaiser Wilhelm II, 22, 25, 109 La Rochefoucauld, 93 KAL 007 (Korean airliner), 291 labor, 13, 307 kamikaze, 198 shortages in, 180 Kant, Immanuel, 40, 66, 329 and United States, 277 “Perpetual Peace,” 40 Lakatos, Imre, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 56, 57, Kantian triangle, 38 63, 75, 77 Katō Tomasaburō, 190, 196, 197 Lake, David, 37 Kaunitz coalition, 16 land, 11, 12 Keitel Wilhelm, 176 arable, 165 Kennan, George, 237, 263, 328 land forces Kennedy, Andrew, 346 ratio of, 139 Kennedy, John F., 355 land power, 11, 12 Kennedy, Paul, 22, 233, 340 Larson, Deborah, 349, 354 Kennedy, Robert, 2 Latin America, 22, 231 Keohane, Robert, 60, 328, 349 lead, 163 Kerensky, Alexander, 33, 46 leaders, 31, 36, 39, 40, 43, 46, 191, 202, Kershaw, Ian, 17 342, 351, 360 KGB, 2, 281 Britain and, 346 Khrushchev, Nikita, 1, 2, 277, 289, 296, British, 156 305 Eastern European communist, 301

Index 381

preferences of, 207 Maastricht, 319, 321, 350 leadership, 6, 8, 31, 35, 39, 41, 263, 352, Maastricht Summit, 67, 320 353, 357, 358, 359–61, 364 Maastricht Treaty, 318 and Germany, 359 and EMU, 319 ideological, 6 MacArthur, Douglas, 218, 237 Japan and, 325 Macedonia, 116, 117 moral, 283 Machiavelli Niccolò, 44, 85, 156 leadership ideology, 4 Machiavellians, 101 League of Nation, 19, 19, 156, 159, 173, Madison, James, 42, 66 237, 308, 309, 358 Madrid learning, 15 bombing in, 254 Lebensraum, 165, 167 Madrid summit, 318 Lee, Robert E., 226 Magyars, 106, 119, see also Hungarians legalism, 237 Mahan, Alfred Thayer, 186, 197, 345 legislatures Malta democratic, 38 EC membership and, 319 legitimacy, 98, 341 Manchuria, 159, 168, 189, 190, 191, 196, Austrian, 18 211 Legvold, Robert, 288 manganese, 166 Lenin, Vladimir, 288, 336, 348 manner level risk-averse, 53 domestic, 42 Mao Tse-tung, 337, see Mao Zedong liberal, 36 Mao Zedong, 34, 203, 204, 208, 209, 210, “liberal two,” 23 211, 212, 213, 215, 216, 217, 218, liberalism, 24, 26, 48, 66 219, 220, 221, 222, 223, 224, 225, economic, 34 226, 236, 237, 346, 354, 358, 359 Libya, 116, 260, 261, 262, 263 confidence of, 221 Litvinov, Maxim, 173, 174 dispatch of divisions and, 225 Litwak, Robert, 349 expansionist goals of, 224 Liu Shaoqi, 203, 204, 208, 211, 212, 214, forces and, 210 216, 218, 221, 225, 346 on guerrilla tactics, 209 Mao Zedong and, 220 intervention and, 215 martial confidence of,210 martial confidence of, 219 living space, 162, 165 “mobile” warfare, 215 as Lebensraum, 164 preemptive motive and, 223 extension of, 163 preventive motive and, 223 Lloyd George, David, 330 revolutionary writings of, 209 London, 107, 118, 123 strategy of, 223 bomb and, 175 UN forces and, 222 evacuation of, 138 United States and, 224 Longstreet, James, 226 Marco Polo Bridge, 192 Lord Hailsham, 171 Maria Theresa, 16 Lord Halifax, 144, 169, 171, 172, 177 market, 310, 315 Lord Rosebery, 22 market system, 273 lore Marshall Plan, 235 geopolitical, 50 Marshall, George C., 243 loss, 40, see also gain martial prowess, 202, 204, 206, 208, 213, domain of, 355 218, 227 Louis Philippe, 23 Martin, Lisa, 49, 349 Louis XIV, 32, 89, 92, 95 Marxism, 163, 339, 348 Louis XV, 32 Marxism-Leninism, 348 Louis XVI, 32, 35, 350 material disadvantages, 204 Low Countries, 21, 97 material power, 201 Luftwaffe, 133, 142, 175, 179 lack of, 221 Luxembourg, 311 materialists, 275

382 Index

Matsui Iwane, 192 German, 170 maximizer of Japan, 337 short-term, 27 military parity May, Ernest, 343, 355 strategic, 289 Mazarin Cardinal, 88 military power, 306 McCloy, John J., 310 distribution of, 36 McNamara, Robert, 243 military preparedness means, 127 Czech, 174 military, 24 military reductions Mearsheimer theory, 233 US, 239 Mearsheimer, John, 63, 69, 78, 79, 80, 82, military revolt 83, 99, 101, 103, 111, 115, 122, 123, in Berlin, 150 126, 129, 137, 158, 159, 230, 234, military spending 238, 245, 308, 322, 325, 327, 328, centrality of, 243 330–40, 344, 348 in Soviet Union, 300 Cold War and, 331, 333 US, 235, 238 failure of foreign policy to mature and, military unreadiness 333 German, 175 “false promise” of international Mill, John Stuart, 3, 40, 46 institutions, 323 Milner, Helen, 42, 68 position of, 337 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 294 states as rational and, 327 misperception, 130 view on Hitler, 158 missile crisis Meiji, 199 Cuban, 289 Meiji Constitution, 186, 189 missiles, 1 Meiji state, 187 medium-range, 299 Melian dialogue, 228, 229, 230, 233, 234, shorter-range, 299 343 Soviet medium-range, 267 mercantilism, 94 Mitterrand, François, 319, 321 merchant marine mobile artillery, 24 US, 42 mobile warfare, 215 Messina, 312 mobilization, 238 Metternich, Clemens von, 105, 106 military, 272 Middle East, 32, 231 naval, 169 Midway, 198 partial, 114, 117, 126 military, 28, 213 Russian, 126 boldness, 208 modern nation capability, 332 and Russia, 349 expansion of, 361 Molotov Vyacheslav, 147 power, 331 telegram to, 337 and preemption, 254 Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, 141 Russian, 125, 126 Moltke, General Helmuth von, 21, 118 Turkish, 118 molybdenum, 166 military balance, 289 monarchy, 31 military capabilities, 257 expansion of, 127 US, 257 military and, 347 military competitor survival of, 127 peer, 258 universal, 91, 92, 347 military expenditure monetarist approach, 317 US, 344 monetary policy military force, 6 German model of, 318 use of, 243 monetary system military measures of Europe, 313 of 111, 117 European-wide, 314 military occupation monetary union, 315, 316, 317, 318, 319

Index 383

Mongolia, 211 nature Monnet, Jean, 308, 309, 310, 311 anarchic, 127 Monroe Doctrine, 264 risk-averse, 61 Montenegro, 116, 117, 119 naval and air power Moore, Barrington, 336 advantage in, 234 Moore, John Norton, 37 naval preparations moral power, 336 German, 175 morale naval race popular, 140 Anglo-German, 109, 123 moralism, 237 Navigation Acts, 95 Moravcsik, Andrew, 36, 68, 315 navy, 25, 142, 186, 191, 193, 195, 196, Morgenthau, Hans, 155, 157, 161, 233 345, 353 Moscow, 26, 217, 310 of American, 195 motor vehicles, 213 of Japan, 186 movements of German, 22 national liberation, 295 Habsburg, 119 Mubarak, Hosni, 35 Nazi Germany, 9, 225, 233, 335, 344, 358 multilateralism, 249 discussions with, 193 Munich, 131, 137, 151, 153, 157, 159, Nazi–Soviet Pact, 183 173, 179, 345 Near Eastern Question, 105 Munich Agreement, 156 needle gun, 24 Murray, Williamson, 139 neo-Marxists, 36 Mussolini Benito, 175 neorealist theory, 69, 75, 78, 80 neorealists, 6, 99, 101, 129, 364 Nagata Tetsuzan, 192 Netherlands, 311 Namibia, 300 neutrality acts Nanjing, 192 American, 143 Napoleon, 88, 112, 226, 350 New Thinkers, 288, 296, 299, 301 defeat of, 33 grand design of, 302 Napoleonic armies, 21 New Thinking, 269–72, 275–84, 291–300, Napoleonic empire, 88 305, see also Gorbachev, Mikhail S. Napoleonic Wars, 15, 23, 42, 100, 331 Nicaragua, 33, 34, 278, 300 Nash solutions, 14 free elections in, 300 nation, 354 nickel, 166 rogue and, 349 Niebuhr, Reinhold, 157 strength of, 351 Nine Years War, 92 national identity, 269, 286 Nitze, Paul, 238 national interest, 328, 348 Nixon, Richard, 242, 243, 330 national policy, 362 Nomura Kichisaburō, 196, 197 National Security Adviser, 244 non-democracies, 40, 45 National Security Council, see NSC 68 non-interference paper 68 and, 238 meticulous, 301 National Security Strategy, 250, 251, 254, non-power 256, 261, 206 and, 244 institutional, 348 National Socialists, 4 normative, 348 national unity nonproliferation norms degree of, 31, 42 violation of, 251 nationalism, 4, 11, 21, 24, 123, 308 norm entrepreneurs, 299 Nationalists, 211 normative and institutional restraints, 13 nationality normative transformations, 8 principle of, 118 norms, 17, 54, 81, 91, 299, 352 nations, 353 ethical, 343 NATO, 26, 33, 53, 63, 64, 307, 344, forward, 291 see North Atlantic Treaty Organization new, 14 (NATO) transformations, 8

384 Index

norm-takers, 299 oilfields North Atlantic Treaty Organization American, 166 (NATO), 311 Middle Eastern, 166 Germany’s membership in, 304 Old Thinking, 272 North Vietnam, 364 Oneal, John, 38 North, Douglass, 54, 72, 77 Operation Green, 174 Northern Wars, 95, see also Russia opinion NPT, see Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty British public, 136 (NPT) domestic, 353 NSC 68, 242 German, 170 nuclear arsenal, 269 public, 149, 152 nuclear capability, 259 opponents nuclear deployments building up of, 232 American, 289 order, 91, 92, 93, 99, 100, nuclear deterrent, 344 360 nuclear disarmament international, 91 norms of, 298 maintenance of, 248 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), quest for, 82, 85, 93, 97, 98, 100, 101, 262 102, 347, 348 Iran and, 262 return of multipolar, 331 Nuclear Posture Review, 256 organization theory, 72 nuclear power organizations balance of, 35 international, 73, 76 nuclear testing multilateral, 308 moratorium on, 299 Ostend Company, 94 nuclear war, 239, 282 Oster, Hans, 176 nuclear weapons, 12, 27, 239, 250, 261, Ottoman Empire, 92, 97, 98, 101, 113, 262, 277, 298 114, 228, see also Turkey elimination of, 299 “Young Turks,” 114 low-yield, 239 outcomes renunciation of, 298 increasing-sum, 20 spread of, 27 long-term, 26 United States and, 220 short-term, 25 systemic, 29 objectives, 351 unit-level, 29 conflicts of, 66 variable, 24 economic, 8 variable-sum, 26 long term, 22 over-balancing, 47 territorial, 26 over-expansion, 37 occupation overextension, 268, 270 Indochinese, 196 overseas trade Manchurian, 191 competition for, 94 offensive Overy, Richard, 18 Anglo-French planned, 144 Owen, John, 350, 351 offensive operations in China, 194 Pacific War, 198 offensive realism, 3, 7, 103, 105, 107, 111, Pakistan, 262, 285, 362 119, 122, 127, 155, 238, 307, 308, Palacky, Francis, 105 342, 343, 347 Palme Commission, 295 anomalies for, 30 Pan Am 103 offshore balancing, 234, 238, 239, 240 bombing of, 260 oil, 163, 166, 193, 196, 231, 314, 345 Pan Slavism, 123 American, 199 Panama, 240 price of, 277 papal influence, 5 oil shipments Pareto frontier, 55, 65, 67, see also Pareto from American, 196 optimality

Index 385

Pareto optimality, 14 election, 302 partnership German attack on, 151 security, 307 offensive against, 137 social, 307 partition of, 93, 94 Pašić, Nikola, 121 polarization path-dependence, 72 ideological, 38 Paul, T.V., 202 Poles, the, 104, 111, 123, 346 peace, 21, 38, 93, 99, 309 policy, 329 democratic, 41 budgetary or fiscal, 320 failure of, 23, 16, 20 Churchillian, 184 international, 91 discussion of economic, 141 long-term, 15 Habsburg security, 112 maintenance of, 241 multilateral, 307 outbreak of, 12 US, 34 success of, 16, 23 Polish cities peace front, 147 bombings of, 151 Peace of Utrecht, 90, 91, 92 Politburo, 278 Peace of Westphalia, 331 political status peaceful power, 14 Soviets and, 290 Pearl Harbor, 10, 18, 191, 197 politics Japanese attack on, 183 bureaucratic, 342 peasants, 11 domestic, 130 peer competitor, 256 great-power, 96 forestall rise of, 257 international, 80 Peloponnesian Wars, 228 power, 94, 101 Peng Dehuai, 216, 217, 219, 220, Pollack, Kenneth, 40 222, 223 Polybian cycles, 15 presentation and, 217 Ponomarev, Boris, 336 People’s Liberation Army (PLA), 209 popular support People’s Republic of China (PRC), 203, amount of, 350 281 population, 14 perestroika, 274, 278, 300, 305, 354 population density, 165 Pericles, 206 populations Persian empire, 226 welfare of, 362 persuasion, 256, 258 Portugal, 97 pessimism, 211 post-Cold War, 26, 256 Petrograd, 46 Powell, Colin, 243 Pham Hung, 336 Powell, Robert, 61, 62 phony war, 17 power, 4, 8, 13, 14, 88, 92, 129, 130, 156, Pickett George, 226 228, 276, 279, 308, 341, 342, 349, Pig War, 110 351, 359, 365 Pitt, William, 95 absolute, 129 PLA, see People’s Liberation Army (PLA) America and, 240, 265, 344 Plan Z, 135 amount of, 361 planes, 166 and Austria, 19 German calculus of, 364 US, 219 change in, 350 Plato, 336 concentrations of, 52 plebiscite, 170 concept of, 11, 12, 362 and Hitler, 170 constituents of, 350 Pleven, René, 310 cyclical, 348 Pöhl, Karl-Otto, 317, 318 definition of, 10, 363 poison gas, 230 delegation of, 309 Poland, 4, 17, 97, 98, 131, 142, 147, 148, dominant, 323 150, 151, 160, 165, 175, 183, 228, economic, 28 301, 358 European balance of, 133

386 Index

power (cont.) Prague, 147, 346 Germany and, 344, 359 march into, 149 and glory, 11 Pravda Habsburg, 106, 119 article in, 294 hard, 246, 247 PRC, see People’s Republic of China impulsions of, 359 (PRC) international, 356, 357, 358, preemption, 250, 251 359, 360 doctrine of, 349 international system of, 361 military, 250 losing of, 351 preemptive actions maximize, 129 option of, 324 of military, 28, 31, 122, 166 preferences naval, 186 of the state, 36 normative, 14 variation in, 69 notions of, 18 pressures over exercise of, 5 domestic, 27, 351 overuse of, 17, 248 inflation, 180 projection, 289 material, 268, 269 pursuit of, 28 preventive war relative, 47, 342 in Iraq, 247 rise of Soviet, 190 primacy Soviet Union and, 240 American, 246 status and, 288 Primakov, Evgeny, 282 struggle for, 81, 82, 85, 86, 97, 99, 100, Princip, Gavrilo, 121 101, 102, 306, 347, 348 Prisoner’s Dilemma, 55, 62 struggle for vs. quest for order, 100 problem and territory, 19 distributional, 65 transformations in, 12, 20 free-rider, 99 US hard, 247 of institutional theory, 51 under-use of, 14 progress power balance, 5 scientific, 49 power band, 47 prospect theory, 39, 354 power broker, 290 prosperity, 332 power line, 3, 4, 10, 15, 29, 30, 31, 32, 34, Prussia, 21, 23, 24, 33, 38, 39, 88, 93, 97 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 42, 45, 47, 105, eighteenth-century, 9 156, 160, 201, 203, 212, 227, 247, Prusso-Austrian War, 98 248, 265, 270, 271, 275, 281, 284, public officials, 242 341, 342, 343, 344, 345, 346, 347, public opinion 349, 350, 351, 352, 355, 357, 358, in America, 352 361, 362, 364 in Britain, 18, 136, 170 above the, 45 Pufendorf, Samuel von, 338 below the, 31 Pugwash, 295 beneath, 44 Pusan, 214 economy and, 321 Putin, Vladimir, 36 military and, 321 Pyongyang, 214, 261, 262 realist and, 31 of a state, 46 Qaddafi, Muammar al, 260, 261 power politics, 78 Quadrennial Defense Report, 256 power ranking, 29, 36, 46 quarantine, 2 power resources, 10 powers radar chain, 132, 138 rising, 27 railways, 24 status quo, 122 rapprochement, 281 Pownall, Sir Henry, 174 rational actor, 327 Pragmatic Sanction, 16 rational-choice theory, 39

Index 387

rationality, 328, 329 Red Army University, 210 assumption of, 329, 348 red line, 263 Ratzel, Friedrich, 165 reform raw materials, 163, 275, 345 Chinese model of, 273 Germany’s shortage of, 140, 141 Chinese-style, 273 shortages of, 180 of economy, 279 readiness to market, 274 Russia and, 173 regime change, 38, 176, 252, 259, 260, Reagan, Ronald, 34, 35, 40, 282, 298, 329, 261, 262, 263, 342, 350, 353, 364 360 domestic, 33 administration of, 243, 271 in Tripoli, 260 advisers of, 298 regime intention, 260 Moscow and, 298 regime security and Soviet Union, 277 assurance of, 261 real estate, 24 regime type, 260 realism, 3, 6, 36, 39, 46, 48, 51, 52, 56, 57, regimes, 54, 364 61, 64, 66, 69, 75, 106, 107, 123, 155, conservative, 24 156, 190, 199, 200, 233, 306, 326, domestic, 33, 36, 38, 40 328, 342, 364, 365, see also neo-realism international, 54, 70 assumptions of, 51 liberal, 38 broadened version of, 61 Reichsbank, 141, 181 critique of, 111 Reichsrat critique of offensive, 111 Austrian, 121 the great virtue of, 48 Reichstag, 25 hard, 240, 241, 244 Reiter, Dan, 43 modification of, 55 relationships new kind of, 127 power, 341 normative doctrine and, 330 relative power, 233 structural, 31, 129 reliable partners, 38 theory of “binding,” 67 religion, 86, 87, 88, 91, 347 realist theory, 2, 53, 232, 321 religious zeal, 352 anomalies facing, 54 Ren Bishi, 214 critique of, 348 reneging realists, 6, 37, 42, 45, 48, 52, 53, 55, 79, fear of, 65 103, 130, 145, 154, 228, 230, 234, rent-seeking, 37 235, see also realist theory republic, 248 balance of power and, 264 republicans, 42 defensive, 129, 154 Republicans, 232 John Mearsheimer and, 240 leaders of, 316 offensive, 129, 154 research and development structural, 29, 47, 82, 129, for Soviet military, 278 see also realism: structural research programs, see Lakatos, Imre Realpolitik, 24, 267, 269, 270, 281, 282, degenerate, 50 292, 294, 336 progressive, 50 rearmament, 143, 162, 181 reserves of Britain, 143 in Britain, 144 of Russia, 118 international, 163 rebels reservists in Cuba, 44 call-up of, 237 reciprocity resources role of, 55 industrial, 179 reconciliation shortage of, 194 of France and Germany, 309, 312 restraint Red Army, 175, 183, 348 normative or institutional, 27 in 113, 159 pledge of, 125

388 Index

retrenchment, 278 backwardness of, 288 unilateral, 306 mobilization of, 347 Return of History and the End of Dreams, political trajectory of, 264 The, 240 Soviet, 32 reunification Tsarist, 32 of Germany and Europe, 316 Russo-Japanese War, 108, 188 revisionist power, 256 Ruthenians, 104, 111 revolution, 32, 339, 349 Ryzhkov, Nikolai, 273 in China, 188 communist, 295 Saar, 162, 312 in France, 95 Sadowa, 106 scientific and technical,353 Sagdeev, Roald, 282 social, 21, 23 Sakharov, Andrei, 296 in Spain, 44 Salvadoran civil war, 300 telecommunications, 52 Salzgitter, 166 world, 336 sanctions, 73 Reykjavik, 298 Sandinista Revolution, 33 Rhineland, 162 Sandinistas, 300 Ribbentrop, Joachim von, 169 Sarajevo, 112, 124, 127 Ribbentrop–Molotov pact, 183 satellites Rice, Condoleezza, 249 Soviet, 301 Richelieu, Cardinal, 88 Saudi Arabia, 35, 166 risk-acceptant, 27 Sazonov, Serge, 115, 116, 117, 119, 125 rivalry Scandinavia, 354 bureaucratic, 185 Schacht, Hjalmar, 164 interservice, 186, 188 Schemua, Blasius, 116 power, 94 Schleicher, Kurt von, 31 Prussian–Austrian, 96 Schlieffen, Alfred von, 108 rockets, 239 Schmidt, Helmut, 314, 315, 317 rollback, 238 Schroeder, Paul, 11, 13, 20, 52, 347, 352 Roman Empire, 246 Schultz, Kenneth, 45 Romania, 17, 142, 147, 165, 183, 301 Schumacher, Kurt, 310 Romanians, 173 Schuman Plan, 308, 309 Romanov, Grigory, 274, 282, 354 Schuman, Robert, 308, 309 Rome, 88 Schweller, Randolph, 30 treaties of, 312, 313 Schwerin, Gerhard von, 177 Rome–Berlin Axis, 168 Scowcroft, Brent, 243, 244, 304 Roosevelt, Franklin, 146, 146, 152, 235, SDI, see Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) 330, 332, 355, 355, 358 sea Rosecrance, Richard, 42, 160, 350 law of, 95, 347 Roshchin, N.V., 214 sea-powers, 12, 323, 348 Rousseau, Jean-Jacques, 43 Second Hague Peace Conference, 103 Royal Air Force, 179 Second Moroccan Crisis, 103 Royal Dutch/Shell, 166 Second World War, 12, 47, 155, see World Royal Navy, 134 War II rubber, 163, 166, 180 Secretary of Defense, 259 rule of law, 241 security, 35, 53, 328 Rumsfeld, Donald, 256, 259, 265 security assurance, 260 Russett, Bruce, 38 Security Council, 73 Russia, 9, 15, 16, 18, 22, 23, 24, 25, 33, 36, resolutions of, 252 38, 46, 88, 92, 93, 97, 98, 103, 104, security policy, 319 105, 107, 108, 109, 110, 113, 114, security system 115, 116, 117, 121, 123, 125, 127, comprehensive, 299 128, 163, 172, 228, 232, 246, 249, international, 294 257, 262, 264, 285, 288, 349, 355 selection bias, 58

Index 389

self-determination, 170, 353 Social Democratic Party, 310 national, 156, 158 Social Democrats, 317 norm of, 17 social group, 284 principles of, 149 social identity theory, 269, 284, 286, 289, self-help, 129 304, 349, see SIT (social identity September 11, 2001 246, see 9/11 theory) Serbia, 27, 103, 104, 105, 107, 108, 110, social mobility, 270, 286 114, 119, 120, 121, 122, 124, 127, socialism, 339 347 socialization partitioning of, 125 to Western norms, 268 Serbs, 104, 111 soft power, 266, 289, 291, 305 service sector, 273 cooptive and, 292 setting sun Soissons, Congress, 91 land of, 287 Solomon Islands, 198 Seven Years War, 16, 98, 99 Somalia, 240, 353 seventeenth century, 5 South Africa, 136, 265 Shakhnazarov, Georgy, 282 South Manchurian Railway, 189 shared sovereignty, 307, 308, 313 South Slav movement Shen Zhihua, 217, 219 Belgrade’s support for, 125 Shenyang, 219 Southward Advance, 193, 194, 195, 196, Shevardnadze, Eduard, 293, 348 197 Shevchenko, Alexei, 349, 354 on navy’s terms, 196, see Japan shipbuilding, 193 sovereignty, 308, 309, 318, 350 shogunate Soviet Communism, 162 Tokugawa, 186 Soviet empire short-term horizons, 18 splintering of, 244 short-term maximizers, 12 Soviet Five Year Plans, 19 short term mentality, 16 Soviet Union, 1, 9, 12, 29, 33, 34, 38, short-war, 144 40, 63, 140, 147, 159, 163, 166, 174, Siberia, 162, 189, 190 179, 190–03, 211, 216, 236, 238, Japanese plans to invade, 324 239, 244, 246, 248, 263, 267, 293, Siegfried Line, 174 302, 306, 312, 321, 324–25, Silesia, 9, 16, 93, 94 332, 337 similarity 1941 attack on, 199 method of, 46 alliance with, 148, 157 Simon, Sir John, 144, 152 and Basket Three, 349 single currency, 319 collapse of, 305, 348 Single European Act, 315, 316 détente policy, 269 single market, 318 German attack on, 195 Sino-Japanese War hegemony and, 302 of 1894–95, 188 invasion of, 183 SIT (social identity theory), 269, 271, 290, pioneer and, 305 291, 292, 297, 300, 305, 306 politics of, 353 situation, 323, 355, 358, 361 rearmament of, 324 definition of, 355, 358, 359, 360, 364 Spaak, Paul Henri, 312 perception of, 356 Spain, 21, 88, 92, 94, 97 Siverson, Randolph, 32 Habsburg, 92 Slavs, 107, 111, 123 under Charles V, 92 Slovakia, 123 Spanish Civil War, 175 Smith, Adam, 19, 20, 66, 339 Spanish War of 1701–14, 35 Snyder, Jack, 37 Sparta, 43, 204 social comparisons, 285 Spartans, 2, 230 social competition, 286, 289 Speer Albert, 18 status through, 286 spending social creativity, 286 defense, 278

390 Index

spending (cont.) status quo military, 34, 257 holding the, 128 US defense, 246 imperial and, 355 spheres of influence, 298 status-seeking, 270 Spitfires, 138 Steel, 166, 228, 308, 311 “splendid isolation,” 354 Stein, Arthur, 39 SS-20s, 295, see USSR Steiner, Zara, 346 St John, Henry, 329 stock market Stalin, Joseph, 5, 17, 18, 19, 112, 162, 183, Germany and, 181 212, 215, 236, 237, 305, 336, 337, Stockholm Agreement, 299 348 Stockman, David, 329 Adolf Hitler and, 179 Stoppard, Tom, 339 air cover and, 222 Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), 277, air support and, 221 279, 299 China and, 346 strategies death of, 238 of advancement, 27 Great Terror and, 328 economic development, 15 rebuke of, 347 long-term, 26 Stalinism, 301 longer-term, intensive, 27 Stam, Allan, 43 maximization, 27 Standard Oil, 166 strategy, 98, 346 Stanley, Oliver, 182 of Britain, 130 Starr, Harvey, 32 continental, 145 state, 208, 347 German air, 133 and behavior, 348 of Hitler, 163, 164, 168, 175 capitalist, 31 long-war, 143, 144, 145, 153 communist, 31 offensive, 145 concept of, 308 social creativity, 291, 306 domestic determination of, 342 strength fascist, 31 in economy, 140, 308 headless, 185, 345 Germany’s military, 135 Islamist, 31 military, 308 reasons of, 338, 339 technological and economic, 351 rogue, 251 Stresemann, Gustav, 31 set of rules and reason of, 339 struggles system of, 331 constant-sum, 24 state sovereignty distributional, 67 attack on, 253 Stürgkh, Karl, 121 protection of, 253 Suárez, Francisco, 339 states, 226, 298, 308 subsidies, 363 aggressive, 10 succession architecture of, 340 dynastic, 98 authoritarian, 37 Sudan, 19 Baltic, 147 Sudetenland, 159, 162, 178, 179 capitalist, 36 suffrage democratic, 37, 350 universal, 25 democratizing, 37 summit fascist, 38 US–EU, 247 revolutionary, 352 Sun Zi, 204 rogue, 249, 250, 257, 258 superiority, 205 socialized, 29 margin of, 140 status quo, 34 superpower, 246, 289, 297, 304 status, 270, 271, 284, 292, 306 benign, 247, 248 of great powers, 271 military, 240 improvement of, 292 rogue, 247, 253 of Soviet Union, 269 superpowers, 30

Index 391

survival, 106, 119, 127, 155 diversionary, 42 issue of, 104 progressive, 77 Sweden, 92, 97, 98, 128 theorist Switzerland, 21, 90, 352 ideational, 294 Syria, 88, 278 prospect, 40 system, 357 theory, 343 anarchic international, 308 baseline, 30 cooperative international, 292 contradiction of, 323 of Europe, 97 of framing, 40 hegemon of, 308 Third Reich, 182 international, 85, 358 Third World, 291 post-9/11, 26 expanding in, 290 structure, 80 Thirty Years War, 347, 352 unipolar, 246 Thomas, Major General, 142 systems threat, 52 authoritarian, 34 of Chinese, 190 bipolar, 102 disappearance of the Soviet, 53 capitalist, 296 foreign, 186, 189 multipolar, 102 of Serbia, 124 socialist, 296 of Soviet Union, 63, 175, 310 unipolar, 102 Thucydides, 2, 29, 43, 156, 228, 229, 234, 341 tactics, 98 time horizon, 18, 45 Taishō Crisis, 188, 189 Tisza, István, 119, 120, 124, 125 Taiwan Strait, 212 titanium, 166 crises in the, 226 Tojo, Hideki, 43 Taliban, 249, 251, 252 Tokyo, 4 removal of, 265 Toynbee, Arnold, 156 tanks, 166, 213, 230 Trachtenberg, Marc, 337 reduction of, 300 trade, 11 tariffs, 21, 22, 350, 363 controlling, 94 protective, 19 free, 162, 163 Taylor, A. J. P., 149, 159 gains from, 19 technological advances international, 93 in America, 240 trade and commerce technologies roles of, 86 military, 243 trading, 21 technology, 13, 28, 291, 363 Tragedy of Great Power Politics, The, 323 changes in military, 166 Transylvania, 119 high, 14 Treasury, 142, 143, 144, 145, 153, 182, 346 Tehran, 261, 262 view of, 144 Territorial gain, 5 treaties territorial objectives, 8 Washington naval, 190 territories Treaties of Westphalia, 92 attempt to conquer, 351 treaty of France, 312 five-power and, 232 territory, 13 US–Japan trade, 146 amounts of, 11 Treaty of Guarantee from Serbia, 125 with Britain and France, 358 Serbia and, 117 Treaty of Paris, 107, 109 terrorism, 249, 264, 265 Treaty of San Stefano, 107 9/11 suicide, 249 Treaty of Versailles, 165 threat of, 364 trenches, 172 Tetlock, Philip, 364 Triple Alliance, 25, 108 Thatcher, Margaret, 43, 298, 300 secret ties to, 119 theories Triple Entente, 25, 113

392 Index

Tripoli, 116, 260 see Security Council troops, 225 United States, 1, 3, 4, 5, 9, 11, 14, 17, 22, from America, 225 26, 31–35, 38, 43, 44, 45, 46, 95, 134, from France, 133 144, 163, 165, 166, 189, 191, 193, from Germany, 170 228, 230, 231–34, 237, 239, 240–41, reduction of, 300 248, 266, 269, 310, 311, 321, 324, from Russia, 117 343, 348, 352, 354, 355, 358 Soviet, 304 dominance and, 228 Trott zu Solz, Adam von, 177 government of, 235 Truman, Harry, 212, 218, 235, 236, 237, intervention and, 240 238, 239, 241, 242 “post-Iraq syndrome,” 265 trust, 81 relations with, 312 Tsarist Russia, 337 universal empire Tsars, 350 failure of, 339 tungsten, 166 universalism Turkey, 1, 104, 108, 116, 117, 236 humanistic, 296 US missiles in, 2 unpreparedness Tversky, Amos, 10, 161 of Britain, 135 Twelfth Five Year Plan, 277 US Naval War College, 258 Twenty-One Demands, 189 US State Department, 230 tyranny US Strategic Defensive Initiative, 277 ending of, 244 US Treasury, 230 Tyrol, 88 US–Cuban crisis, 360 USSR, 28, 238, 239, see also Soviet Union U boats, 139 decline of, 292 Ugaki Kazushige, 193 Ukraine, 26 values, 282 ultimatum, 152 set of, 339 from Britain, 151 Van Creveld, Martin, 206 from Germany, 114 vanadium, 166 UN charter, 241, 244 Vansittart, Robert, 178 violation of, 237 variables, 361, 364 UN debate domestic-political, 31 in 116, 253 unit-level, 30 UN General Assembly, 32, 252 Vasquez, John, 52 UN Security Council, 247, 252, 253 Velikhov, Evgeny, 282 resolutions of, 252, 253 Venezuela, 36, 166 uncertainty, 161 Venice, 44, 312 increased, 64 Vergennes Charles, 20 under- or over-use of power, Versailles, 18 see also balance of power Versailles peace settlement, 9 under-balancing, 47 Versailles Treaty, 17, 161 unemployment, 19, 212 Vickers, Sir Geoffrey, 241 unilateralism, 249 Victorian-era Great Britain, 9 assertive, 247 victory, 226 union, 309 military, 153 economic and monetary, 316 Vienna, 21, 23, 107, 115, 117, 119, 347 unipolar moment, 248 Vienna Settlement unipolarity, 47 of 101, 107 uniqueness Vietnam, 255, 332 Soviet, 291 Vietnam War, 42, 264 unitary actor assumption, 56 Vistula River, 162 United Kingdom, 235, 354 voice opportunities, 68 United Nations, 235, 253, 294, 307 Volga, 162 pressure from, 353 Volk, 177 United Nations Security Council, volte-face, 157

Index 393

vulnerability Washington Naval Conference, 232 economic, 179 Washington Treaty, 345 Washington Treaty System, 190 Walt, Stephen, 39, 327 wealth Waltz, Kenneth, 29, 34, 50, 51, 53, 54, of nations, 19 60, 61, 63, 66, 70, 78, 123, 129, 155, weapon 326, 327 British blockade, 140 war, 17, 21, 37, 43, 44, 62, 63, 93, 127, weaponry, 98 134, 139, 181, 190, 198, 199, 309, 344 Soviet, 217 against Germany, 167 weapons inspectors, 41 against Holland, Britain, and United weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), States, 194 249, 255, 259 against Spain, 44 arsenal of, 260 America and, 18, see also war: United failure to find,255 States forestall acquisition of, 251 Anglo-Dutch, 95 intelligence and, 264 of attrition, 346 strikes on, 261 avoidance of, 131 terminating and, 260 between Germany and West, 194 Wehrmacht, 159, 206 Bosnia and, 64 Weimar Republic, 31 and Britain, 152 Weizsäcker, Ernst von, 176 Britain goes to, 149 Wells, Samuel, 350 Britain’s decision for, 137, 138 Wells, Sherill Brown, 350 cause of, 87, 348 Weltpolitik, 109 in China, 193 Werner Report of choice, 246 of 115, 318 declaration of, 151 West Berlin, 236 defensive, 126 West Germans, the, 238 European, 101, 173 West Germany, 307, 311 failures of, 16, 20 behavior of, 307 German, 130 policy of, 308 German-Italian, 140 West Wall, 173, 175 Great Power, 24, 364 Western Europe, 228, 231, 238, 332 in Iraq, 39 Western European Union, 311 laws of, 98 Western Germany, 350 Nazi plan for, 164 Western Hemisphere, 3 of necessity, 249 Western powers outbreak of, 140 Japan and, 287 pre-emptive, 43 Western values preventive, 118, 251 liberal democratic, 300 recourse to, 362 Wilhelm II, 126 with Serbia, 118 will, 206, 207, 210 short war vs. long, 135 Williamson, Samuel, 347 start of Anglo-German, 151 Wilson, Horace, 171 two-front, 147 Wilson, Woodrow, 156, 228, 230, 241, United States, 17 330, 358 unlimited, 239 Witzleben, Erwin von, 176 War Hawk Congress, 42 Wojtlya, Karol, 5 War of Jenkins’ Ear, 94 Wolfowitz, Paul, 252 War of the Spanish Succession, 90, 94, 98 World Bank, 235 war on terrorism world domination, 40 global, 249 world empire warfare German, 162 land and, 204 world market, 339 Warsaw Pact, 33 world order Washington, 35, 197, 246, 262 new, 291

394 Index

world power, 234, 276 Yamamoto Isoroku, 197, 199 share of, 308 Yamato, 197 World Trade Center, 249 Yan’an, 211, 219 World Trade Organization (WTO), 53 Yangtze valley, 192 World War I, 15, 126, 143, 309 Yōsuke Matsuoka, 38 Soviet Union withdrawing from, 335 Yugoslavia, 64 World War II, 15, 159, 209, 233, 241 as a mistake, 159 Z Plan, 169 world wars, 242, 308, 362 Zagladin, Vadim, 282 WTO, see World Trade Organization Zelikow, Philip, 241 (WTO) Zero Option, 34 Zhang Xi, 220 Yakovlev, Alexander, 276, 282, 299 Zhivkov Todor, 301 Izvestia interview, 304 Zhou Enlai, 34, 203, 214 Yalu river, 223 Zhu De, 214 Yamagata Aritomo, 187 zone of gain, 354 Yamamoto Gonnohyōe, 186, 187, 188 zone of loss, 354, 358, 360