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KITS: Good Growth, Solid Unit Economics, Aligned Management

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KITS: Good Growth, Solid Unit Economics, Aligned Management Matt Koranda, (949) 720-7119 [email protected] Gustavo Gala, (949) 720-7116 [email protected] Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820 COMPANY NOTE | EQUITY RESEARCH | February 16, 2021 Consumer: DTC & Disruptors Initiation of Coverage Kits Eyecare Ltd. | KITS.TO - C$8.13 - TSX | Buy Stock Data 52-Week Low - High C$7.55 - C$10.20 KITS: Good Growth, Solid Unit Economics, Shares Out. (mil) 31.00 Aligned Management; Initiate at Buy Mkt. Cap.(mil) C$252.03 3-Mo. Avg. Vol. NA With its digital-first approach to selling contacts and prescription glasses/ 12-Mo.Price Target C$13.00 sunglasses, we see a long runway of growth ahead as Kits capitalizes on a Cash (mil) C$43.2 steady shift of the USD $35bn North American eyewear market into online Tot. Debt (mil) C$11.0 channels (only 13% sold online in 2021, under-penetrated vs. most consumer Revenue (C$ millions) categories). We like Kits' dual-pronged strategy of converting customers into high-visibility auto-ship programs while driving glasses growth, as these Yr Dec —2020— —2021E— —2022E— improve customer-level profitability. Moreover, management has a track- Curr Curr 1Q NA 22.5E 32.4E record of success and owns ~70% of shares. 2Q NA 32.1E 45.3E ■ 3Q 20.2A 31.8E 44.9E We initiate coverage on Kits Eyecare at Buy with a $13 PT. Kits 4Q 19.6A 30.6E 41.2E offers vision testing, prescription renewals, and products such as contact YEAR 74.5A 116.9E 163.9E lenses and eyeglasses through its website, kits.com. Roughly 80%/20% of sales come from the U.S./Canada. Since mid-2020, Kits has been focused EBITDA on converting existing customers into auto-ship subscription programs Yr Dec —2020— —2021E— —2022E— for contact lenses. The company is also building in-house production Curr Curr capabilities for glasses (especially lenses), with the capacity to produce ~2k 1Q NA (2.7)E (1.3)E pairs of glasses each day. Kits completed its IPO on the TSX in Jan'20 at 2Q NA (1.6)E 2.1E $8.50/share, raising net proceeds of ~$52mn. 3Q 1.7A (1.6)E 1.5E ■ (1) We believe Kits has a long runway of 4Q (1.9)A (1.7)E 0.7E Our Buy rating is based on: YEAR 2.9A (7.6)E 3.0E growth ahead, as the company offers an innovative, digital-first approach in a USD $35bn TAM that is rapidly moving online (13% online in 2020, EPS C$ +400bps YoY). (2) Our unit-level analysis suggests Kits can grow sustainably Yr Dec —2020— —2021E— —2022E— while generating healthy levels of profitability. (3) Kits is well-capitalized after Curr Curr its recent IPO, maintaining a ~$43mn cash war chest (post debt pay down 1Q NA (0.09)E (0.05)E of $8.5mn) that provides a multi-year runway for growth and reinvestment. 2Q NA (0.05)E 0.02E (4) We like management's high ownership, at ~70% of shares outstanding. 3Q (0.01)A (0.05)E 0.01E We also like CEO/co-founder Roger Hardy's track record of success in 4Q (0.08)A (0.06)E (0.01)E the eyewear industry (having sold his prior business, Coastal Contacts, to YEAR (0.10)A (0.24)E (0.02)E Essilor, in a successful exit in 2014). ■ We forecast an attractive +41% revenue CAGR (2020-2023); adj EBITDA KITS.TO One-Year Price and Volume History 2.5 11.00 should improve materially after a period of investment in growth in 2021/2022. We expect Kits to spend aggressively to acquire customers and 2.0 10.00 convert new/existing consumers into its glasses and auto-ship programs in 1.5 9.00 2021. This will likely result in a period of EBITDA de-leverage in 2021: we 1.0 8.00 forecast ($7.6mn) adj EBITDA, or (6.5%) margins. Thereafter, in 2022 and 0.5 7.00 beyond, we see operating leverage kicking-in, significant margin expansion 0.0 6.00 in 2022 an 2023 (+800bps and +500bps, respectively). Vol (m) Price ■ Our $13 price target applies a 2.5x multiple to our 2022 sales estimate. Feb-21 DTC and digitally-native (non-healthcare) peers trade for a median 3.0x 2021 sales estimates, while eye care and DTC/digital healthcare peers trade for a median 8.0x 2021 sales. We assign a slightly below-peer median 2.5x EV/sales multiple to our 2022 revenue estimate of $164mn. As Kits proves out its higher-revenue visibility auto-ship program and demonstrates improving GM performance into 2022, we expect to assign a higher multiple. Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 31 to 34 of this report. Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 888 San Clemente Drive | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC KITS EYECARE LTD. Company Note - February 16, 2021 INVESTMENT OVERVIEW Kits Eyecare Ltd. (TSX: KITS.TO – Buy) is a digital eye care platform. Kits offers vision testing, prescription renewals, and products such as contact lenses and eyeglasses through its website, kits.com. Roughly 80% of sales are generated in the United States, while the remaining 20% are from Canada. Kits carries ~40,000 SKUs of contacts and glasses, sourced from third-party brands as well as a Kits private label brand. Kits has served over 600k customers since inception and currently enjoys a 69% repeat order rate. Since mid- 2020, Kits has been focused on converting existing customers into auto-ship subscription programs for contact lenses. The company is also building its in-house production capabilities for glasses, with the capacity to produce ~2k pairs of glasses each day (in-house lens edging/surfacing). Kits completed its IPO on the TSX in January 2020 at $8.50/share. Our Buy rating on KITS is based on the following. (1) We believe Kits has a long runway of growth ahead, as the North American eyewear market is large, representing USD ~$35bn in annual retail in 2020, with relatively low rates of digital penetration (~13% in 2020, up from 9% in 2019). The introduction of Kits’ new glasses product line, as well as an auto-ship subscription-like program, should both drive outsize growth and margin expansion during our forecast period. (2) Our unit economics analysis suggests Kits can grow sustainably while generating healthy levels of operating profit as the business scales. (3) Kits is well-capitalized after its recent IPO (~$50mn), providing multiple years of runway as management works to expand key business lines like its auto-ship program as well as glasses. (4) We believe high insider ownership aligns management with shareholders. Moreover, we like co-founder Roger Hardy’s demonstrated track record of success in the eyewear market. We forecast 2021/2022 revenue of $117mn/$164mn (+57%/+40% YoY growth) and adj EBITDA of $(7.6)mn/$3.0mn ((6.5%)/+1.8% margins). Our 2021 revenue growth forecast of +57% YoY assumes contacts revenue growth of +48% YoY, while we anticipate a significant ramp in the glasses category of +305% YoY (off a low revenue base of <$3mn in 2020). Importantly, we expect GMs to erode in 2021 (down (440)bps YoY) as Kits offers discounts to accelerate growth in two strategically important product lines: (a) auto-ship and (b) glasses. We also expect a ramp-up in operating expenses, especially fulfillment ($12.6mn or 10.8% of sales, up from $7.6mn or 10.2% in 2020) and marketing ($18.0mn or 15.4% of sales, up from $8.1mn or 10.9% of sales in 2020). These assumptions drive significant adj EBITDA margin de-leverage ((6.5)% margin, down ~1,140bps YoY). In 2022, we forecast sustained strong revenue growth of +40% YoY, supported by +32% YoY growth in contacts and +121% YoY growth in glasses. We expect improved 2022 operating leverage as product discounting should abate, and higher sales should absorb the 2021 step-up in opex (opex 27.9% of sales, down (420)bps YoY). This drives our 2021 adj EBITDA of $3.0mn (1.8% margin, up +830bps YoY). Page 2 of 34 KITS EYECARE LTD. Company Note - February 16, 2021 Exhibit 1: We expect sales to grow at a 41 % three -year CAGR , Exhibit 2: We expect near -term EBITDA margin pressure as Kits with the most robust YoY growth in 2021/2022. invests in new product lines and customer acquisition. KITS Revenue (2018-2023E) KITS Adj. EBITDA (2018-2023E) 56.9% 60.0% 20.0 20.0% 210.1 200.0 49.2% 50.0% 15.0 14.1% 14.2 15.0% 163.9 150.0 40.2% 40.0% 10.0 8.7% 10.0% 6.7 116.9 6.7% 28.2% 30.0% 5.0 4.3 5.0% 3.0 100.0 3.9% YoY Growth YoY Growth YoY Revenue ($mn) Revenue ($mn) Revenue 2.9 1.8% 74.5 20.0% 0.0 0.0% 47.6 49.9 50.0 10.0% (5.0) -5.0% -6.5% 10.9% 4.9% (7.6) 0.0 0.0% (10.0) -10.0% 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E Revenue (LHS) YoY growth (RHS) Adj EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA Margin (RHS) Source: KITS SEDAR Filings & ROTH Capital Partners Estimates. Source: KITS SEDAR Filings & ROTH Capital Partners Estimates. We view key risks as: (1) a crowded competitive landscape within eyewear (both digital peers and larger incumbents); (2) Kits may face challenges in converting customers into auto-ship arrangements (limited success in conversion, high discounting, etc.); and (3) cash burn could grow in the near-term as the company invests in customer acquisition and building customer lifetime value through auto-ship and glasses programs.
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