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Developments BALLISTIC, , AND MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS: TRADE AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS, JULY-OCTOBER 1996

CONTENTS

AFGHANISTAN Ukraine, 143 with: Internal Developments, 140 , 144 Internal Developments, 152 , 138 with: with: GREECE and Pakistan, 141 China, 141 AFRICA with: , 141 India, 147 with: United States, 144 Israel, 141 Iran, Lebanon, and , 149 Ukraine, 138 Pakistan, 141 HUNGARY , 152 AUSTRALIA and Ukraine, 141 Internal Developments, 144 Syria, 153 with: United States, 142 Turkey, 153 INDIA Russia and , 138 United Kingdom, 153 CYPRUS Internal Developments, 144 United States, 138 United States, 153 with: with: BELARUS Russia, United Kingdom, and Canada, 140 ITALY with: United States, 142 China and Pakistan, 141 with: Russia, 138 Israel, 147 Germany, Netherlands, CZECH REPUBLIC Russia, 148 Turkey, and United BOSNIA Internal Developments, 142 Slovakia, 148 States, 143 Internal Developments, 139 EGYPT IRAN JAPAN with: Internal Developments, 148 with: Internal Developments, 139 Russia, 142 with: United States, 155 with: United States, 142 China, 141 Russia and United States, 139 KUWAIT FINLAND Israel, Lebanon, and United States, 140 with: with: Syria, 149 United States, 155 BULGARIA Russia, 143 , 149 with: North Korea and United LEBANON FRANCE Russia and United States, States, 149 with: with: 140 Russia, 149 Israel, Iran, and Syria, 149 Russia, 143 CANADA IRAQ MALAYSIA GERMANY with: Internal Developments, 150 with: with: India, 140 with: Turkey, 156 Italy, Netherlands, Turkey, and Israel, 152 United States, 143

134 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 Missile Developments

MISSILE TECHNOLOGY Norway, Ukraine, and United UNITED ARAB EMIRATES CONTROL REGIME States, 157 with: (MTCR) , 160 Russia, 160 DEVELOPMENTS, 156 United Arab Emirates, 160 UNITED KINGDOM United States, 160 NETHERLANDS with: with: SINGAPORE Cyprus, Russia, and United Germany, Italy, Turkey, and with: States, 142 United States, 143 Russia, 160 Israel, 153 MTCR, 156 NORTH ATLANTIC SLOVAKIA TREATY ORGANIZATION with: UNITED STATES (NATO) India, 148 Internal Developments, 163 with: with: SOUTH KOREA Russia, 157 Australia, 138 Internal Developments, 161 Brazil, 140 NORTH KOREA SYRIA Brazil and Russia, 139 Internal Developments, 157 with: Bulgaria and Russia, 140 with: Israel, 153 China, 142 Iran, 149 Israel, Iran, and Cyprus, Russia, and United Iran and United States, 149 Lebanon, 149 Kingdom, 142 Pakistan and , 157 North Korea, 157 Egypt, 142 Syria, 157 Germany, 144 TAIWAN NORWAY Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Internal Developments, 161 with: and Turkey, 143 with: Russia, Ukraine, and United Greece, 144 North Korea and States, 157 Iran and North Korea, 149 Pakistan, 157 Israel, 153 PAKISTAN United States, 161 Japan, 155 with: THAILAND Kuwait, 155 Afghanistan, 138 with: MTCR, 156 China, 141 Australia and Russia, 138 Norway, Russia, and India and China, 141 Ukraine, 157 North Korea and Taiwan, 157 TURKEY Russia, 160 with: RUSSIA Taiwan, 161 Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Internal Developments, 158 Turkey, 162 and United States, 143 with: Ukraine, 162 Israel, 153 Australia and Thailand, 138 Malaysia, 156 WASSENAAR ARRANGE- Belarus, 138-139 United States, 162 MENT, 163 Brazil and United States, 139 Bulgaria and United UKRAINE States, 140 Internal Developments, 162 China and Ukraine, 141 with: Cyprus, United Kingdom, Africa, 138 and United States, 142 China and Russia, 141 Egypt, 142 Germany, 143 Finland, 143 MTCR, 156 France, 143 Norway, Russia, and United India, 148 States, 157 Iran, 149 United States, 162 NATO, 157

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 135 Missile Developments

OVERVIEW

During the July-October 1996 period, United Nations and equipment from China to build an M-11 missile factory Special Commission (UNSCOM) inspectors were yet again in Tarwanah, and there were conflicting reports as to whether prevented from examining sites suspected of containing in- the facility will be capable of producing complete missile formation and materials associated with Iraq’s prohibited systems or just their components. Construction of the facil- ballistic missile program. In July, it was feared that prohib- ity began in 1995. In a related development, the China Na- ited materials, including objects that looked like Scud bal- tional Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation listic were removed from a suspect location while may have supplied Pakistan with guidance technology as the Iraqis delayed the inspectors en route. According to well as chemicals to manufacture solid fuel. In response, UNSCOM Chief Rolf Ekeus, Iraq conceals banned weap- the Indian Ministry of Defence’s 1996 annual report stressed ons and materials by transporting them around on trucks the need for India to deploy the ballistic missile and and railway cars prior to inspections. Iraq continued to ob- to develop the projected 2,500 km-range IRBM in or- struct UNSCOM despite Prime Minister Tariq Aziz’s agree- der to counter missile threats in the region. According to the ment with Ekeus in June to provide unconditional access to report, advanced weapons in China and Pakistan and all sites the commission wants to inspect. In late August, Beijing’s missile sales to Islamabad compelled India to “re- Ekeus traveled to with a U.N. Security Council main on guard.” The report said that New Delhi will pre- declaration demanding that Iraq provide his inspectors with serve its options to deploy missiles as warranted by national unrestricted access to military installations in their search security requirements. Abdul Kalam, director general of for banned materials. Ekeus departed from Iraq with assur- India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation ances that future searches would not be blocked. However, (DRDO), said operational testing of the Agni could begin as in its semi-annual report to the U.N. Security Council in soon as the government gave the go-ahead. DRDO officials October, UNSCOM accused Baghdad of “systematically said the next phase of the IRBM project will involve devel- concealing” prohibited weapons and stated that Iraq still oping facilities for missile production and an emphasis on had to account fully for all of its banned weapons, items, operations and extensive exercises. and capabilities in its ballistic missile program. During a Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) Also in the , the joint Israeli-U.S. Arrow-2 seminar held during the summer in Washington, D.C., for- anti-tactical ballistic missile (ATBM) program made signifi- eign policymakers and specialists from 12 member states cant headway in July when the Arrow-2 successfully inter- and seven non-MTCR countries exchanged ideas on how cepted a Scud-type missile armed with a dummy chemical to impede the transshipment of missile technology. This warhead over the Mediterranean Sea. Encouraged by the gathering was followed in October by the 1996 MTCR Ple- successful test, the Israeli government may exclude Arrow- nary Meeting in Edinburgh, United Kingdom, where mem- 2 funding from planned defense budget cuts. Future launches bers agreed on steps that could be taken to improve the of the Arrow-2 will test the missile’s interception capabili- regime’s effectiveness in restricting regional missile prolif- ties against different targets at various altitudes. The Israeli eration in South Asia and the . The members Air Force is scheduled to receive at least 50 Arrow-2 mis- also agreed to encourage key non-MTCR transshippers to siles by February 1998, according to Israeli sources. adhere to regime guidelines, and to give them “practical as- sistance” in implementing transshipment controls on mis- In East Asia, there were indications in October that North sile technology. Although the United States has judged Korea was preparing for a test flight of the 1,000 km-range Ukraine’s export control policies to be in line with the No-dong-1 ballistic missile and that Iranian officials would MTCR, Kiev’s inventory of Scud-B missiles prohibits a be present at the test-site. The United States reacted by send- needed American endorsement for Ukraine to join the re- ing reconnaissance aircraft to monitor the test area and de- gime. Ukraine is reportedly not prepared to accept the manding that North Korea cancel the test. American position that new members must give up their In South Asia, Pakistan reportedly received blueprints offensive missiles before joining the regime. Meanwhile,

136 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 Missile Developments

U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense Harold Smith said Wash- NOTE: ington does not favor a Ukrainian suggestion to convert A date marked with an “*” indicates that an event was SS-24 ICBMs into space launch vehicles. Smith said the reported on that date; a date without an “*” is the date ICBMs are “too expensive to maintain” and should be de- when an event actually occurred. stroyed. But Stanislav Konyukhov, chief designer at Ukraine’s Pivdenmash, said Ukraine is not considering The numbers listed in parentheses following the biblio- destroying its SS-24 ICBMs. graphic references refer to the identification number of the document in the CNS Missile Database from which the news Controversy continued to surround U.S. National Intelli- summaries are abstracted. Because of the rapidly changing gence Estimate 95-19 (NIE 95-19) after the General Account- nature of the subject matter, The Nonproliferation Review ing Office (GAO) released a report which said the estimate is unable to guarantee that the information reported herein was flawed. In November 1995, NIE 95-19 asserted that the is complete or accurate, and disclaims liability to any party United States will not be threatened by a new ballistic mis- for any loss or damage caused by errors or omissions. sile for the next 15 years. According to the GAO, the NIE failed to provide clear judgments, did not identify the basis for its conclusions, and did not examine worst-case scenarios for future missile developments abroad. The GAO said sev- eral assumptions were incorrectly presented as fact-based judgments, including the NIE’s assertion that the MTCR will “significantly limit” international missile sales and that no country that possesses ICBMs will sell them. The report also contested the NIE’s conclusion that “three unidentified countries” will not attempt to produce long-range ballistic missiles, as well as its estimate that it takes five years to develop an ICBM.

Wyn Bowen and Kimber Cramer

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 137 Missile Developments

cal and field firing exercise” scheduled to commence in early 9/96. The exercise will be AFGHANISTAN AUSTRALIA commanded by Lieutenant General Valeryy Kastenka, commander of the Belarusian Air Defense Troops, at the Russian Air Defense Troops testing ground at Ashuluk near As- AFGHANISTAN WITH PAKISTAN AUSTRALIA WITH RUSSIA AND THAILAND trakhan. This will be the first large-scale ex- 10/2/96 7/3/96* ercise of the National Air Defense Troops. The Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya United Communications of Thailand has Belapan (Minsk), 8/29/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-169, 8/29/96 (6542). Gazeta reported that 15 nuclear-capable Scud “taken a 50 percent stake” in a project to missiles that were seized by the mili- construct a satellite launch center at Gunn 9/7/96 tia in Kabul, Afghanistan, could be trans- Point, located north-east of Darwin in Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenka ported to Pakistan. The missiles are said to Australia’s Northern Territory. United Com- arrived in Moscow for an unscheduled meet- be “more-or-less in battle readiness.” In the munications plans to buy an interest in ing with Aleksandr Lebed, secretary of late 1980s, the delivered the Australia’s Space Transportation Systems Russia’s Security Council, to discuss the re- missiles to the Najibullah regime in Afghani- to conduct an $8 million study to determine moval of Russian missile units from Belarus. stan. The have acquired an un- the feasibility of building the center, which According to the Russian Security Council known number of short-range Luna-M will be used primarily to launch Russian Pro- press service, Russian Defense Minister Igor tactical missiles, “which may also fall into the ton SLVs. The $500 million (A$630) center’s Rodionov was also present at this “working hands of Islamabad.” equatorial location would increase the meeting.” Indian Express, http://express.indiaworld.com/ie, Proton’s payload capacity for launching Belapan (Minsk), 9/16/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-181, 10/3/96 (6538). communications satellites into geostation- 9/16/96 (6497). Itar-Tass (Moscow), 9/9/96; in ary transfer orbit. If the go-ahead is given FBIS-SOV-96-176, 9/9/96 (6497). for the launch center to be built, the Austra- AFRICA lian government will provide A$126 million 9/13/96 to improve infrastructure in the Northern Ter- Viktar Sheyman, secretary of state at the ritory. Belarusian Security Council, met with Flight International, 7/3/96-7/9/96, p. 21 (6466). Aleksandr Lebed to examine issues related to the withdrawal of Russia’s Strategic AFRICA WITH UKRAINE AUSTRALIA WITH UNITED STATES Rocket Forces (SRF) from Belarus. Lebed 10/24/96 8/26/96* noted the importance of establishing an Ukraine’s ambassador to , Le- Australian Defense Minister Ian McLachlan implementation procedure to insure that the onid Guryanov, offered African countries rejected, “on the grounds of cost,” a pro- last 18 Topol ICBMs are transferred from Ukrainian space technology to monitor posal “in the short term” to purchase U.S.- Belarus to Russia by the end of 1996, under weather cycles and explore marine resources. manufactured BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise the terms of a bilateral agreement between Guryanov told delegates at an international missiles to arm Australia’s new Collins-class the two countries. Aleksandr Barkhatov, trade show that Ukraine was a world famous . Lebed’s press secretary, said Russia and producer of “certain types of space equip- Australian Broadcasting Corporation Online Belarus agreed that nothing could stop “nor- ment which is of the highest technological WWW (Internet), 8/26/96; in FBIS-EAS-96-166, mal implementation” of this agreement. Ac- level.” Guryanov said many opportunities 8/26/96 (6519). cording to unnamed sources affiliated with existed for African countries to use Ukrai- Lebed, the establishment of a regional air- nian space technology and SLVs to explore defense system was also scheduled to be the sea shelf and monitor the Earth. Accord- BELARUS discussed during the meeting. ing to Guryanov, there was room for greater Belapan (Minsk), 9/16/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-181, trade between Ukraine and African countries, 9/16/96 (6497). Andrey Surzhanskiy, Itar-Tass including trade in military-related items. (Moscow), 9/13/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-179, 9/13/ 96 (6497). Guryanov added that prospects were good BELARUS WITH RUSSIA for Ukraine to use its rocket and missile build- 9/22/96 ing potential in Africa for peaceful and mili- 8/29/96* Russian Public TV reported that Belarusian tary purposes. According to the Belarusian Ministry of President Lukashenka said Russia had Reuter, 10/24/96; in Executive News Service, 10/ Defense’s press office, S-300 missile crews 25/96 (6668). agreed to partly fund the Belarusian air de- from the country’s 15th Air Defense Brigade fense forces. Lukashenka said that he and departed for Russia to participate in a “tacti- Russian Defense Minister Igor Rodionov

138 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 Missile Developments reached the agreement during the former’s tify a more specific launch date in 8/96. The launch satellites will be “an important step trip to Moscow on 9/7/96. The Russian De- four-stage VLS is designed to launch a 150 in the definition of Brazil in the next century.” fense Ministry did not confirm Lukashenka’s kg satellite to an altitude of 750 km. Four VLS Brazil hopes CLA’s equatorial location will statement. “flight models” are being constructed as part allow the country to profit in the commercial OMRI Daily Digest, 9/23/96 (6540). of the rocket’s “demonstration program.” The space launch market. Rockets launched from rocket’s first payload will be Brazil’s SCD-3 equatorial locations require less fuel to orbit satellite. Although the VLS project currently satellites because they benefit from the ef- does not require infusions of new technol- fect of the Earth’s centrifugal forces. Four BOSNIA ogy “from anywhere,” AEB’s acquisition of development flights of the VLS are planned rocket technology from overseas is no longer from CLA before the rocket is declared op- a problem because of Brazil’s membership in erational. The VLS project has been delayed the MTCR. at various stages over the past 15 years by INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS Peter B. de Selding , Space News, 7/22/96-7/28/ financial problems and an embargo by the 10/1/96 96, p. 22 (6462). leading industrialized countries. Prior to 10/ Russian Battalion troops from the Implemen- 95, the MTCR countries restricted the trans- tation Force (IFOR) in Bosnia confiscated 8/4/96* fer of rocket technology to Brazil because of hand grenades and 16 SA-12 missiles from The Brazilian government plans to “resusci- proliferation concerns. Bosnian Muslims in Zvornik, according to tate” the country’s weapons industry for ex- William Schomberg, Reuter, 8/29/96; in Execu- “sources close to IFOR.” SRNA in Belgrade ports by improving its technological quality, tive News Service, 8/30/96 (6672). Flight Inter- national, 9/11/96-9/17/96, p. 45 (6672). reported that inhabitants of the neighboring as well as for guaranteeing basic supplies to villages of Malesic, Kozluk, and Kiseljak the Brazilian Armed Forces. The principal BRAZIL WITH RUSSIA AND heard two explosions on 10/1/96. An anony- focus of this resuscitation will be Imbel, a UNITED STATES mous official from the Bosnian Serb Repub- public company created in 1975 and con- lic Interior Ministry in Zvornik said the nected to the Army Ministry and Avibras 7/22/96* explosions “could have been caused by the Aerospace Industry, a private company Although the Brazilian government has al- destruction of explosive devices confiscated based in Sao Jose dos Campos. Avibras’ prin- ready decided to open CLA to “international from the Muslims.” cipal export is the truck-mounted Astros-2 use,” it has not decided whether the center SRNA (Belgrade), 10/2/96; in FBIS-EEU-96-193, rocket system. Avibras also rents its will be offered for use by a Russian rocket in 10/2/96 (6611). “precision laboratories” for other companies order to compete directly with the European to test products. By keeping Imbel opera- Space Agency’s (ESA) Ariane SLV, which is tional, the Brazilian Armed Forces hope to launched from Kourou in French Guiana. The BRAZIL avoid another Engesa situation. Engesa government still needs to consider several ceased operations in 1995 after the armed factors, including the daily costs of operat- forces reduced equipment orders from the ing CLA and the political implications of company. Brazil’s loss of defense trade with competing directly with ESA. CLA costs Iran and Iraq also contributed to the demise approximately $12 million to operate annu- INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS of Engesa. ally. If CLA were upgraded to handle a “big 7/22/96* Sonia Mossri, Folha De Sao Paulo (Sao Paulo), launch vehicle,” significant extra resources 8/4/96, p. 17; in FBIS-LAT-96-153, 8/4/96 According to Brazilian Space Agency (AEB) (6471). would be needed. CLA currently has two President Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho, Brazil’s pads for launching sounding rockets. One annual space budget totals between $120 8/29/96 of these pads is being upgraded for use by million and $130 million. AEB receives ap- Brazilian President Fernando Henrique the VLS. AEB has invited other countries to proximately 50 percent of this budget to de- Cardoso said Brazil will launch the first pro- launch their rockets from CLA because the velop the Veiculo Lancador de Satellites totype of the VLS “in the next few months” center will be too expensive to operate if it is (VLS) SLV, the Alcantara Launch Center from CLA in the northeastern state of used only to launch satellites for domestic (CLA), and Brazil’s data collection satellites, Maranhao. Cardoso said Brazil was “enter- purposes. The agency is currently working including the SCD-1 and SCD-2. Approxi- ing [a] cycle favorable to research and con- on the legal aspects of establishing a 15-year mately one-third of AEB’s annual budget is struction of technology in the area of space lease arrangement with a foreign launch pro- spent on the VLS. After Brazil finishes test- development.” Cardoso made his remarks vider. ing its subsystems within “the next few during a ceremony to unveil a 10-year Brazil- Peter B. de Selding , Space News, 7/22/96-7/28/ 96, p. 22 (6462). months,” the VLS will either be prepared for ian space program. During the ceremony, launch or undergo a “major redesign.” The Strategic Affairs Secretary Ronaldo VLS will probably not be launched until 1997, Sardenberg said the ability to plan, build, and and the rocket’s program managers will iden-

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 139 Missile Developments

which is China’s strategic missile forces unit, BRAZIL WITH UNITED STATES and the PLAN’s (PLA-Navy) missile-related CANADA 7/8/96* forces. The simulation-training system is a computerized, multimedia, multitasking sys- A U.S. Commerce Department trade mission tem that enables personnel to program com- will visit Brazil between 11/4/96 and 11/10/96 plex combat scenarios, to respond, and then to discuss SLVs and other space-related tech- CANADA WITH INDIA to display the results. The article notes that nologies. U.S. industry and government rep- the use of this technology will save the PLA resentatives with an interest in trading or 10/15/96 “millions of yuan” in training costs. setting up partnerships with Brazil are being The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) and the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) Yang Zhenbo, Keji Ribao (Beijing), 4/4/96 , p. 2; invited to participate in the mission. In 1995, in FBIS-CST-96-009, 4/4/96 (6560). Brazil imported $584 million worth of U.S. signed a Memorandum of Cooperation aerospace products, and it has been pre- (MOC) regarding the peaceful use of outer 9/9/96* space for commercial and scientific purposes. dicted this figure will rise by the year 2000. An investigation is expected to be completed According to CSA President W. M. Patrick Seitz, Space News, 7/8/96-7/14/96, p. 2 by 11/30/96 into the 8/96 failure of a Chinese (6468). MacEvans, Canada does not subscribe to launch vehicle that was carrying a U.S.-made the US view that India’s SLV program was communications satellite. China Great Wall “oriented towards [the] launch of missiles.” Industry Corp., China’s commercial launch MacEvans did not exclude the possibility service provider, is conducting the investi- BULGARIA that Canada might eventually use India’s gation. Three panels will investigate the fail- Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) or Geo- ure: the Investigation Oversight Committee, Synchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle led by Senior Technical Advisor for the (GSLV). MacEvans added that India and China Aerospace Corp. (CASC) Ren Xinmin; BULGARIA WITH RUSSIA AND Canada shared an interest in using space to the Failure Investigation Committee, led by UNITED STATES generate economic, scientific, and techno- Xie Guangxuan, consultant for the commit- logical benefits. ISRO Chairman K. 9/13/96* tee of science and technology at CASC; and Kasturirangan said Canada and India identi- The Bulgarian army possesses eight nuclear- the Failure Analysis Team, led by Fan Shihe, fied a number of areas for cooperation. capable SS-23 (OTR-23/9M714 ‘Oka’) ballis- chief designer of the Long March-3 rocket. tic missiles. Although the SS-23 missiles are MacEvans and Kasturirangan said the agree- Space News, 9/9/96-9/15/96, p. 12 (6679). not nuclear-armed, nuclear warheads could ment covered the commercial use of space have been transferred to Bulgaria from the technology, an area in which CSA has more 10/96 Soviet Union in 40 minutes during the Cold experience and could help ISRO. An International Astronautical Federation War. According to Vasil Lyutskanov, the SS- Kasturirangan said the MOC was the result (IAF) group toured Chinese space facilities. 23 missiles belong to Bulgaria and not Rus- of a series of talks between Canada and In- They learned that China’s secret “Project sia, and they should not be destroyed as dia, and reflected the view shared by both 921,” which has been under development by some countries have suggested. During Bul- countries that space systems and technolo- the Ministry of Defense since 1992, is slated garian President Zhelyu Zhelev’s first trip to gies should be used to serve mankind. to launch two astronauts into space in 1999, the United States, American experts were Indian Express, www.indiaworld.com/ie, 10/16/ 96 (6597). celebrating the People’s Republic of China’s invited to inspect the SS-23 missiles “to fiftieth anniversary. An unmanned orbital test clarify the issue on the spot.” Twelve months flight is set for 1998. China has also dis- later, American experts inspected the mis- cussed plans for launching a space station siles, and U.S. ambassador to Sofia Hugh CHINA into orbit in 2020. The Chinese Long March- Kenneth Hill was shown documents “prov- 3 (LM-3) is capable of launching 5,000 kg ing Bulgarian ownership of the eight missile into low orbit, and the upgraded LM-3A can complexes.” launch 6,900 kg. The LM-3B with liquid strap- Vasil Lyutskanov, Trud (Sofia), 9/13/96, p. 10; in NTERNAL EVELOPMENTS on boosters could launch 11,500 kg into low FBIS-EEU-96-179, 9/13/96 (6534). I D 4/4/96* orbit. The IAF group also learned that China is designing an oxygen/hydrogen first stage. China’s Naval Engineering Institute recently China has developed two smaller oxygen/ completed development of a guided-missile hydrogen upper stage versions, and “be- simulation-training system. The system is a lieves it has the technology to develop an result of China’s focus, since 1990, on incor- oxygen/hydrogen comparable porating computer-based technology into to the European Vulcain used on the Ariane strategic units such as the People’s Libera- 5 and Japanese LE-7 used on the H-2.” China tion Army’s (PLA) Second Artillery Corps,

140 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 Missile Developments is also currently conducting research on large 173, 9/3/96 (6567). the China National Precision Machine Im- kerosene/hydrogen engines. In late 10/96, a port & Export Corporation supplied Pakistan Long March-2D (LM-2D) is expected to CHINA WITH ISRAEL with such sophisticated equipment as gyro- launch an FSW-2 satellite from the Jiuquan 8/6/96 scopes, accelerometers, and on-board com- launch site in the Gobi desert. The FSW-2 is Hong Kong customs officials announced puters, and that Pakistan has already equipped with a camera system that will be that, in 5/96, they found a Sidewinder (AIM- acquired “sufficient quantities of key solid used for military reconnaissance and remote 9) short-range air-to-air missile-launcher and fuel ingredients,” such as hydroxy-termi- sensing. The LM-4 is currently receiving two undeclared 700 kg “fighter-training” nated poly-butadiene (HTPB), fine aluminum three significant upgrades. The launch ve- bombs among the cargo of a China-owned powder, ammonium perchlorate, aziridine and hicle is now capable of launching two pay- Dragonair shipment from the China National RDX to build a missile. U.S. officials have loads into space after the development of a Aero-Technology Import-Export Corporation known about the facility since last year, when twin-satellite launch system. The first flight (CATIC) to Israel. China was returning the construction of the factory allegedly began. of this system will “simultaneously launch launcher and the bombs to Israel after re- A recently released U.S. National Intelligence the new FY-1C polar orbit weather satellite verse-engineering the U.S. technology. The Estimate (NIE) on China’s missile-related as- and a 400 kg magnetospheric research space- case against Dragonair for false declaration sistance to Pakistan describes the facility and craft” in late 1997 or early 1998. Develop- opened on 9/3/96. Dragonair pled guilty to its purpose. The document states that Paki- ment is also underway on the third stage of avoid an investigation into CATIC, and was stan may have developed nuclear warheads the LM-4. By giving it restart capabilities, fined $80,000. The launcher and the bombs which could be fitted on M-11 missiles. U.S. the LM-4 will be able to place medium-size are now the property of the Hong Kong Cus- officials say that China and Pakistan may payloads (1,000-1,500 kg) into highly ellipti- toms Department, to be used at its training have signed a secret deal a decade ago re- cal orbits. China hopes to make this system school. garding Chinese assistance in the construc- operational by 1998. In addition, the LM-4 is Bruce Gilley, Far Eastern Economic Review, 9/5/ tion of a Pakistani missile factory, as well as expected to have a larger payload capacity 96, pp.15-16 (6573). the transfer of approximately three dozen for future missions. completed M-11 missiles. China’s alleged Aviation Week & Space Technology, 10/21/96, p. CHINA WITH PAKISTAN assistance to Pakistan would violate its 22 (6680). China News Digest, http:// pledge to observe the provisions of the www.cnd.org:800, 10/14/96. (6680.) 4/29/96 Hong Kong customs authorities seized 200 MTCR, and the United States could impose sanctions on certain exports to China such CHINA WITH INDIA AND PAKISTAN boxes of ammonium perchlorate originating in Xian, China, and bound for Pakistan’s as electronics, military goods, and space-re- 7/11/96 Space and Upper Atmosphere Commission lated equipment. Indian Foreign Minister Kumar Gujral told R. Jeffrey Smith, Washington Post, 8/25/96, p. (SUPARCO). The shipper, China Ocean Ship- the Indian parliament about evidence that A1 (6621). Hong Kong AFP, 8/27/96; in FBIS- ping, will appear in court in 12/96 when the Pakistan had obtained Chinese-made M-11 NES-96-167, 8/27/96 (6621). Pravin Sawhney, case against it for false declaration reopens. Asian Age (Delhi), 8/27/96; in FBIS-NES-96-168, ballistic missiles. The case began on 9/16/96. 8/27/96 (6621). Farhan Bokari, Defense News, 8/ Defense News, 7/15/96, p. 2 (6539). Bruce Gilley, Far Eastern Economic Review, 10/ 2/96-8/8/96, p. 58 (6621). 3/96, p. 20 (6675). CHINA WITH IRAN CHINA WITH RUSSIA AND UKRAINE 9/3/96 8/25/96 9/96 Iran confirmed that an agreement had been U.S. intelligence officials have concluded that Chinese engineers attempted to steal SS-18 concluded with China regarding the acquisi- Pakistan is “using blueprints and equipment ICBM blueprints from the Yuzhnoye missile tion of “heavy and light arms.” Unconfirmed supplied by China” to build a medium-range plant in Ukraine. China has been attempting reports stated that the deal includes missile missile factory in Tarwanah, a suburb of to acquire missile technology from Russia launchers, missiles, warplanes, support Rawalpindi. Some analysts say that the fac- and Ukraine in an effort to improve its ballis- ships, armored trucks, and transport ve- tory is a “turnkey” facility capable of con- tic missile fleet. The U.S. intelligence com- hicles. The $4.5 billion deal was discussed structing entire M-11 missile systems munity is concerned that Chinese efforts to on Iranian Defense Minister Mohammed complete with two missile stages, rocket purchase components of the SS-18 “could Foruzandeh’s recent visit to China during a motors, solid-fuel, and guidance systems. bolster its capabilities in areas such as guid- meeting with Minister of Defense Chi Others contend that the facility may produce ance and MIRV warheads.” China currently Haotian. The agreement is expected to be only M-11 components, and Pakistan will still has seven to 12 Dong Feng-5 (DF-5) ICBM completed in 12/96 and to be paid for with need to import certain technology, including missiles, which are capable of reaching the hard currency and oil over a period of five steel for the bodies of rocket motors and United States, and 10 DF-4s, which can reach years. guidance systems. Pakistan may be able to Moscow. Chinese officials say that acquisi- Washington Times, 9/4/96, p. A12. IRIB Televi- produce major components of the M-11 sion Network (), 9/3/96; in FBIS-NES-96- tion of SS-18 technology would improve their within two years. There are also reports that space launch systems.

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 141 Missile Developments

Joseph C. Anselmo, Aviation Week & Space Tech- 4/95 and opened an investigation in 11/95. (Nicosia), 9/5/96, p. 18; in FBIS-WEU-96-173, nology, 10/21/96, p. 23 (6596). Because of its complexity, the Commerce 9/5/96 (6485). Makarios Dhrousiotis, O Filelevtheros (Nicosia), 9/18/96, p. 1; in FBIS- Department referred the case to the Justice WEU-96-182, 9/18/96 (6485). CHINA WITH UNITED STATES Department. The Justice and Commerce De- 10/30/96* partments’ main concern is that, since the A U.S. federal grand jury is investigating diverted machine tools were shipped directly whether McDonnell Douglas exercised to Shanghai, CATIC had probably planned CZECH REPUBLIC proper regard for the end-use of factory- the diversion from the beginning. McDonnell sized, metal-shaping machine tools in a sale Douglas’s silence regarding the Shanghai to the China National Aero-Technology Im- deliveries might have indicated that it was port-Export Corporation (CATIC) Group. If aware of the impending diversion, but, to INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS the grand jury determines that McDonnell ensure the success of the main Trunkliner 7/25/96 deal, chose to overlook it. Toward the end of Douglas knew that CATIC might divert the The Czech news media reported that the the Trunkliner negotiations, CATIC implied machine tools for military use, then the Jus- Czech Republic eliminated the last of the SS- that the machine tool side agreement would tice Department may bring formal criminal 23 “Spider” (OTR-23/9M 714 Oka) ballistic have “a big influence” on the success of the charges against the company for knowingly missiles it acquired from the Soviet Union. deal as a whole. Traditionally, Boeing has violating U.S. export control laws. The ma- The Czech Republic announced in 1994 that dominated the Chinese commercial aircraft chine tools were a $5 million side agreement it would eliminate its 24 SS-23 missiles and 4 market; therefore, success of the Trunkliner reached in early 1994 as part of a $1.6 billion SS-23 launchers. deal for 40 commercial MD-90 Trunkliner air- deal was important to McDonnell Douglas. Post-Soviet Nuclear & Defense Monitor, 7/31/ craft, half to be built in the United States and Jeff Gerth and David E. Sanger, New York Times, 96, p. 3 (6527). half to be built in China. According to the 10/30/96, p. A1 (6636). export license, which the United States re- viewed in summer 1994, the machine tools were to be delivered to an as-yet- CYPRUS EGYPT unconstructed machine tool center in Beijing for use in building the aircraft. The dual-use concern with metal-shaping machine tools is that, in addition to shaping aircraft “skins” EGYPT WITH RUSSIA CYPRUS WITH RUSSIA, UNITED (the craft’s outer metal surface), they are also KINGDOM, AND UNITED STATES 8/14/96* useful in shaping missile skins. With the dual- Egypt is contemplating the acquisition of S- use concern in mind, the Commerce Depart- 9/96 300PMU-1 anti-tactical ballistic-missile ment approved the export license in 9/94 with According to unnamed sources, the U.S. and (ATBM) systems from Russia. According to the requirement that McDonnell Douglas the U.K. sought to stop the Greek Cypriot sources in the Middle East, Egypt is seeking monitor strictly the shipments of the machine National Guard from acquiring the Russian to increase both its ATBM and tactical bal- tools and progress on the Beijing tool cen- S-300 anti-missile system. Unnamed military listic missile capabilities. ter. In early 1995, four shipments of machine sources attribute the American and British Flight International, 8/14/96-8/20/96, p. 21 tools arrived in China. According to the ex- opposition to fears that the acquisition of (6484). port license, all the shipments were to go to the S-300 and “the completion of the military Beijing, and two of them did. The other two, airport in Paphos, which will be accompa- EGYPT WITH UNITED STATES however, went directly to Shanghai. It is not nied by the permanent presence of the Greek 9/25/96* clear why McDonnell Douglas did not bring Air Force in Cyprus,” will significantly alter Egypt plans to purchase tactical missiles, this to the attention of the Commerce De- the balance of power on the island by de- aircraft, and fighter-aircraft upgrades worth partment. By 3/95, it was clear that the Beijing stroying Turkey’s current air advantage. The $246 million from the U.S. Department of tool center was not going to be built and, in same sources have suggested these steps Defense. the same month, McDonnell Douglas dis- may trigger a Turkish preemptive strike to Flight International, 9/25/96-10/1/96, p. 4 covered that China had placed several pieces prevent achievement of these goals. Accord- (6474). of the equipment in a newly constructed ing to unnamed “informants,” the National building at a military facility in Nanchang, Guard’s purchase of the S-300 will proceed 800 mi from Beijing, and only 375 mi from as planned, despite efforts by “third parties” Shanghai. Among other things, the to block it. Nanchang facility produces cruise missiles. Ioannis Kharalambidhis, I Simerini (Nicosia), 9/ 18/96, p. 1; in FBIS-WEU-96-182, 9/18/96 McDonnell Douglas notified the Commerce (6485). Ioannis Kharalambidhis, I Simerini Department, which suspended the license in

142 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 Missile Developments

signed launch contracts with other firms. tems under development by other compa- Calaque said these firms have anxieties about nies, which require ignition to take place in- FINLAND the credibility of certain SLVs, a problem side canisters on board the ship itself. No which the Soyuz does not have. Calaque said figures on the entry into service or cost of that, on average, Starsem intends to conduct the system were made available. five commercial launches every 12 months Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/18/96, p. 11 (6531). FINLAND WITH RUSSIA by the turn of the century. Calaque said 7/24/96* Starsem will primarily use the Russian-oper- Finland is acquiring the Buk-M1 air defense ated Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakstan, GERMANY system from Russia and will send approxi- and will only launch occasionally from the mately 30 anti-aircraft specialists, primarily Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia. from the Helsinki Air Defense Regiment and Officials representing French industry and the Armed Services Materiels Institute, to government said they were confident GERMANY WITH ITALY, NETHERLANDS, Russia for training. Finland will receive the Starsem will not steal business from the TURKEY, AND UNITED STATES system as partial payment for the Soviet Ariane SLV. Calaque said Starsem will not Union’s debt to Helsinki that Russia inher- launch Earth observation satellites for Euro- 9/4/96* ited. Russia will not ship the Buk-M1 until pean governments unless all of the govern- U.S. Army Colonel Daniel Montgomery, pro- after 11/96, when the training program is to ments involved agree. At some point, gram executive officer for air and missile de- be completed. The Buk-M1 will replace the Starsem will seek to manufacture and launch fense, said the Netherlands and Turkey are Pechora defense system that Finland cur- Earth observation spacecraft, as well as par- interested in participating in the Medium rently deploys to defend Helsinki. ticipate in the international space station Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) pro- Helsingin Sanomat (Helsinki), 7/24/96, p. A5; project. RKA’s Viktor Kouznetsov will serve gram with the U.S., Italy, and Germany. Be- in FBIS-WEU-96-169, 7/24/96 (6494). as deputy chairman of Starsem. Starsem’s fi- cause it is not clear whether Turkey and the nal incorporating documents are expected to Netherlands are interested in a financial in- be filed in Paris in early 8/96, after which vestment in the program, and because the FRANCE Aerospatiale and Arianespace will order current participants believe the program Starsem’s first Soyuz SLV at an estimated needs to advance before new participants price of $20 million. are accepted, the countries may participate Peter B. de Selding, Space News, 7/22/96-7/28/ initially as observers. MEADS has faced 96, pp. 4, 19 (6667). Aviation Week & Space problems because of France’s withdrawal FRANCE WITH RUSSIA Technology, 7/22/96, p. 17 (6667). from the program and the lack of strong sup- 7/96 9/18/96* port from the U.S. Congress. Despite this lack The French government helped facilitate the The French firm Thomson-CSF AirSys is of support, the U.S. Army expects Congress establishment of a Franco-Russian venture collaborating with Russia’s Fakel missile de- to approve a $56.2 million request for the called Starsem to market Russia’s Soyuz SLV sign company to “develop a vertical launch MEADS program in Fiscal Year 1997 funds. and Europe’s Ariane SLV. Starsem will handle system for the VT-1 supersonic missile used A trilateral NATO agency has been created commercial and industrial operations for in its Crotale Naval New Generation (CNNG) to administer the MEADS program from Soyuz SLVs, which will be marketed to launch weapon.” Although initial design work on Huntsville, Alabama, and a competition is small satellites into low and medium orbits. the system has begun, officials from AirSys underway between two teams led by The French firms Aerospatiale and said the project was still a cooperative ven- Raytheon/Hughes and , re- Arianespace have 35 and 15 percent shares ture and a formal agreement between the two spectively, as part of the MEADS definition/ in Starsem, respectively. The Russian Space companies had not been signed. Fakel will validation phase. Agency (RKA) and Russia’s Samara State Barbara Starr, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/4/96, p. 4 provide assistance for the design of the ejec- Research and Production Space Center each (6557). tion and tilt sections of the new system, us- have a 25 percent stake. Samara is one of ing cold-launch technology that has not Russia’s principal space organizations and GERMANY WITH UKRAINE been introduced previously in the West. The is responsible for space station components, project will involve the development of a gas 8/23/96 orbital capsules, spy satellites, and SLVs. generator to “propel the missile above the The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said the Starsem will be based in the Suresnes sub- launch ship’s superstructure before it is set German government has set aside DM3.5 urb of Paris, France. According to Francois on course and its launcher activated.” Be- million to finance the destruction of five Calaque, managing director of Aerospatiale’s cause the launch system will be “more com- nuclear missile silos in Ukraine by the end of space business unit and president of pact and safer to use,” AirSys claims it will 1996. The funds were allocated under the Starsem, a number of companies have shown constitute an improvement on similar sys- terms of a Ukrainian-German protocol. Ger- an interest in Soyuz despite having already

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 143 Missile Developments many has given Ukraine DM3.1 million over for 84 Texas Instruments AGM-88B high- 8/2/96 the past two years to develop environmen- speed anti-radiation missiles (HARM) and Indian Prime Minister Deve Gowda approved tally sound technologies for destroying mis- 50 Hughes/Raytheon AIM-120B Advanced the Technology Vision 2020 plan developed sile silos. Ukraine is scheduled to destroy 36 Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles by the Technology Information Forecasting percent of its missile silos over the next seven (AMRAAM) worth a total of $90 million. and Assessment Council (TIFAC). The plan years. Jane’s International Defense Review, 8/96, p. 13 is designed to promote domestic develop- Raisa Stetsyura, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 8/23/96; in (6529). ment of technology in key industrial sectors. FBIS-SOV-96-166, 8/23/96 (6469). In the defense sector, the plan calls for de- velopment of high-integrity, real-time soft- GERMANY WITH UNITED STATES HUNGARY ware engineering and fusion; modeling and 10/23/96* simulation; smart structures; aircraft propul- Under an agreement with the U.S. firm sion; guidance and control; materials and Lockheed Martin Vought Systems, the Ger- process technologies; signature control; man company Dasa LFK- aerodynamics and microelectronics for use INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS Lenkflugkoerpersysteme will develop a in strategic industry; and electronic warfare Patriot PAC-3 air-defense system for Ger- 8/3/96* systems. The plan emphasizes the need to many. The PAC-3 missile will be developed According to Brigadier General Nandor increase India’s self-reliance in high-technol- by Daimler-Benz Aerospace and LFK, while Gruber, head of the Hungarian Defense ogy weapon systems and defense equipment Siemens AG will be responsible for system Ministry’s Defense Management Main De- because of problems the country has experi- integration and launcher equipment. Accord- partment, Scud missile warheads cannot be enced in acquiring high-technology from the ing to German industry sources, the PAC-3 destroyed in Hungary, and they will have to West. India is a target of Western export con- will include local content, but the extent of be dismantled abroad. trol restrictions such as those embodied in U.S. industry involvement has yet to be de- Baltic Times, 8/1/96-8/7/96, p. 7 (6591). Peter the MTCR. The plan did not say how much Matyuc, Nepszabadsag (Budapest), 8/3/96, pp. cided. The German government created a 1, 4; in FBIS-EEU-96-152, 8/3/96 (6591). the program would cost, and it is unclear how funding plan for the PAC-3 program in its the government intends to finance it. five-year budget. Germany wants to deploy TIFAC’s plan outlines the current state of PAC-3 to replace its current Patriot inven- technology in India, the government’s goals tory within 12 months of the first U.S. PAC-3 INDIA over the next 25 years, and the short- and unit equipped. The United States completed long-term strategies that will be implemented the PAC-3’s critical design review earlier in to accomplish these objectives. To develop 1996 and plans to equip its first unit with the the plan, TIFAC spent two years collecting missile by Fiscal Year 1999. At the German INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS suggestions from 500 experts in industry, Air Defense School at Fort Bliss, Texas, a 7/16/96 government, academia, and the scientific German Patriot launcher has already been Indian Defence Minister Mulayam Singh community. TIFAC is an independent insti- outfitted with a PAC-3 missile enhanced Yadav said India’s self-reliance in defense tution that was established in 1988 to assess launcher electronics system. production is one of the government’s top future technologies in fields of particular sig- Jane’s Defence Weekly, 10/23/96, p. 11 (6648). priorities. By 2005, India’s 10-year self-reli- nificance for India, and to monitor India’s ance plan aims for 70 percent of the country’s critical industries. Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 8/19/96-8/25/ weapons requirements to be met domesti- 96, p. 9 (6687). GREECE cally. Currently, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) meets 30 8/7/96 percent of India’s defense needs, according DRDO Director General Abdul Kalam gave to DRDO officials. the Professor Y. Nayudamma Memorial Lec- Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 7/29/96-8/4/ GREECE WITH UNITED STATES 96, p. 46 (6663). ture on Technology Vision at the Indian In- 8/96* stitute of Chemical Technology, organized The Greek government asked if it can pur- Early 8/96 by the Andhra Pradesh Academy of Sci- chase 40 Army Tactical Missile System The DRDO requested the Indian cabinet’s ences. Kalam said that by 2005 India would (ATACMS) battlefield-support missiles, with approval to begin initial operational testing be indigenously producing 70 percent of its launching assemblies and support equip- of the projected 2,500 km-range Agni IRBM. military equipment, in contrast to the current ment, from the U.S. Army at a cost of $60 Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 8/26/96-9/1/ 30 percent. Kalam said India’s Vision 2020 million. ATACMS is produced by Lockheed 96, p. 14 (6690). program envisaged the growth of the coun- Martin Vought Systems. In addition, the try in all areas “from farming to missile tech- Greek government asked the U.S. Air Force nology.” According to Kalam, a hi-tech

144 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 Missile Developments gallium foundry will be built over the next again after a two-year lull. Defence Ministry said the test flights dem- five years to supply materials needed for the Reuter, 8/19/96; in Executive News Service, 8/ onstrated the UAV’s ability to navigate ac- manufacture of India’s missiles, aircraft, and 19/96 (6662). Nelson Graves, Reuter, 8/15/96; curately to designated target points for in Executive News Service, 8/15/96 (6662). John other defense equipment. S. L. Nacharyulu, F. Burns, New York Times, 8/17/96, pp. A1, A3 extended missions of several hours to carry director of the Defence Metallurgical Re- (6662). B. R. Srikanth, Asian Age (Delhi), 8/21/ electro-optic and photographic payloads. search Laboratory (DMRL), said that con- 96, p. 4; in FBIS-NES-96-163, 8/21/96 (6662). The UAV is being developed jointly by sev- struction had already begun on the gallium Michael Battye, Reuter, 8/21/96; in Executive eral DRDO laboratories “with the aeronauti- News Service, 8/21/96 (6662). arsenide foundry, which is a joint venture cal development establishment.” The between DMRL and the Semi Conductor 8/19/96 ministry said that several significant - Complex of Chandigarh. Kalam said India stones were reached during the flight tests. The Indian Defence Ministry’s 1996 annual intends to invest in critical technologies and The Nishant is scheduled to enter service report stated that India would continue its components in order to meet future needs, with the Indian Army in 1998. missile programs in response to stockpiling including “a city-based defense laboratory Washington Times, 8/24/96, p. A7 (6526). Hindu by other countries in the region. The report to develop [a] supercomputer of one giga- International Edition, 8/31/96, p. 16 (6558). stressed the need for India to keep open its flops capacity.” Indian Express (Delhi), 8/8/96, p. 9; in FBIS- option to deploy the Prithvi ballistic missile 8/20/96 NES-96-155, 8/8/96 N/A (6602). Hindu (Ma- and to develop the Agni IRBM in order to Abdul Kalam said the first phase of devel- dras), 8/8/96, p. 5; in FBIS-NES-96-155, 8/8/96 counter new missile threats in the region. opmental testing for the Agni had been com- (6602). According to the report, advanced weapons pleted and operational testing could begin in China and Pakistan and Beijing’s sale of as soon as the government gave the go- 8/8/96 missiles to Islamabad compelled India to “re- ahead. The Agni was last tested in 2/94, when Abdul Kalam requested permission from the main on guard.” The report said New Delhi it traveled 1,400 km and landed in the Bay of prime minister to conduct further develop- will keep its options open on deploying mis- Bengal. Future tests of the 21 m tall, 19 MT ment flights of the Agni IRBM. Kalam said siles as warranted by India’s national secu- Agni will focus on achieving the missile’s there was no chance that India would cancel rity requirements. The report emphasized that projected range of 2,500 km. Deve Gowda’s the project. The two-stage Agni completed India must make adequate provisions to government has “in principle” accepted the prototype testing in 1995. counter missile proliferation in the region, DRDO’s request for $16.6 million to finance Indian Express (Delhi), 8/8/96, p. 9; in FBIS- despite international pressure regarding its NES-96-155, 8/8/96 (6602). Washington Times, another five flight tests of the Agni. Accord- 8/10/96, p. A7 (6602). ballistic missile and nuclear weapons pro- ing to senior DRDO officials, the next phase grams. According to the report, India must of the project will involve developing facili- 8/15/96 modernize existing conventional weapons ties for missile production and an emphasis Deve Gowda said India would continue de- and indigenously develop new weapon sys- on operations and extensive exercises. Two veloping the short-range Prithvi missile and tems. The report said the Indian Army in- of Agni’s three previous tests were success- the Agni IRBM, which the United States has tends to procure improved multi-barrel rocket ful, and cost a total of $11.6 million. A single criticized because it believes these programs launchers. Also, the Integrated Guided Mis- Agni launch costs $3.3 million. According could increase tensions in South Asia. Ac- sile Development Project (IGMDP) is mak- to Indian defense scientists, DRDO must test cording to Gowda, India has made headway ing headway and a number of domestically the Agni another six to eight times to perfect in its , , and missile pro- designed corvettes, frigates, missile boats, the missile’s accuracy. DRDO officials said grams, including the 250 km-range (140 mi) and survey ships are being built for the In- the nuclear-capable Agni can carry a one- Prithvi and the 2,500 km-range (1,400 mi) Agni dian Navy. These boats include the most ton payload and has a terminal accuracy of missiles. Gowda said these programs would modern communications, propulsion, sur- 300 m. The Agni consists of a modified Prithvi proceed according to “the earlier determined veillance, and weapons systems. ballistic missile fitted on top of an SLV-3 sat- Reuter, 8/19/96; in Executive News Service, 8/ ellite launching rocket. According to Indian policy.” Gowda said he wanted to assure the 19/96 (6662). Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, Indian people that the country’s security 8/26/96-9/1/96, p. 14 (6606). sources, the Agni project was designated a needs would be his foremost priority and the “technology demonstrator” in response to Prithvi and Agni programs would continue. 8/20/96-8/21/96 U.S. missile nonproliferation concerns and Abdul Kalam said India will deploy the Agni The Nishant (UAV), pressure. India’s All-party Standing Commit- IRBM once the government gives the offi- India’s first indigenously developed un- tee on Defence said the government should cial go-ahead. General Shankar Roy manned surveillance aircraft, completed suc- “expeditiously” re-evaluate the Agni pro- Choudhary, Indian army chief of staff, did cessful flight tests at Kolar, near Bangalore, gram in response to South Asia’s evolving not comment when asked if and when the according to an announcement by the In- security environment. India is concerned Prithvi missile would be deployed. Indian dian Defence Ministry. The Nishant is de- about Pakistan and China, who are modern- Foreign Minister Inder Kumar Gujral denied signed to conduct reconnaissance of izing their armed forces at a rapid rate and that India would begin testing the Agni IRBM battlefields, including target acquisition. The cooperating in the missile and nuclear fields.

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 145 Missile Developments

Indian defense chiefs believe the Agni’s uid stages for SLVs, will receive Rs236 mil- centrate on improving India’s ability to meet 2,500 km-range is a significant deterrent lion. Indian space scientists said ISRO will domestically the current and projected needs against Chinese aggression. According to a begin competing commercially in the near of the armed forces, including the develop- report released by the committee, India needs future by marketing ground-station equip- ment of critical systems and technologies that the Agni to counter the threat from Pakistan ment, launches of low-Earth-orbit satellites, it does not have access to on the interna- and China. satellite testing services, and remote-sens- tional market. The scientists revealed that, Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 8/26/96-9/1/ ing data. Yogendra Alagh, Indian minister of as part of DRDO’s Component Development 96, p. 14 (6690). Rahul Bedi, Jane’s Defence state for science and technology, told parlia- program, India developed approximately 25 Weekly, 9/11/96, p. 21 (6690). ment that India will launch six additional sat- critical technologies that Western countries 8/22/96 ellites by 2000, the first of which is scheduled have prevented India from acquiring. Ac- to be put into orbit in late 1996. The first two cording to the scientists, India has been de- United News of India quoted Indian Defence development launches of the GSLV will be nied access by the MTCR states to Ministry sources as saying that India intends used to orbit experimental communications approximately 150 items and technologies to begin manufacturing three missile systems satellites. The GSAT-1 will be launched in critical to its space and missile programs. The in 1997. These include the medium-range 1997-98, and the GSAT-2 will be launched in DRDO’s self-reliance implementation coun- (Sky) SAM, the short-range “1989-99” [1998-99]. cil supports India’s current systems by de- (Trident) SAM, and the third-generation Vivek Raghuvanshi, Space News, 8/26/96-9/1/96, veloping domestic sources for vital spare (Serpent) anti-tank missile. p. 9 (6652). Washington Times, 8/24/96, p. A7 (6523). parts and the upgrades needed for capabil- ity enhancements and service-life exten- 9/2/96* 8/26/96* sions. In addition, the program reduces The DRDO plans to strengthen the country’s India’s reliance on importing defense items Deve Gowda said India will maintain its mis- defense capabilities and to develop a “paral- sile programs and added that the country’s from abroad. The program’s future emphasis lel subsystems manufacturing base” by mar- will shift to the development of electronic IGMDP is proceeding as planned. Gowda keting 1,500 technologies developed said the technology involved has been tested and information warfare technology. specifically for the Indian government. Se- Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 9/2/96-9/8/ successfully and the decision to nior DRDO scientists have identified a num- 96, p. 25 (6664). operationalize missile systems will be made ber of sophisticated technologies with in the future. commercial spin-offs, such as the Slotted 9/12/96 M. D. Nalapat, Times of India (Bombay), 8/26/ 96, p. 11; in FBIS-NES-96-167, 8/26/96 (6500). Waveguide Array (used in ship-, air-, and Abdul Kalam said India will conduct one or land-based systems), which has po- two more tests of the 250 km-range version 8/26/96* tential as a civilian navigational aid. DRDO’s of the Prithvi surface-to-surface missile India allocated the largest share of its 1997 decision to market these technologies is an (SSM) before the end of 1996. Kalam did not space budget, for the period 4/1/96 through element of its Atmabodh plan, which is de- specify exactly when the test(s) would take 3/31/97, to its satellite launch program, in- signed to streamline the organization and to place. The DRDO tested the 250 km-range cluding development of the Geosynchro- assess the market potential of DRDO tech- Prithvi on 1/27/96. India is developing this nous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV). The nologies. Although DRDO established a version for the air force. The DRDO has con- GSLV is designed to launch communications marketing organization called C-TECH in ducted 14 successful tests of the Prithvi satellites weighing up to 2,500 kg into geo- 1992 to assess this potential, the group has SSM, “including two flight trials of the 150 synchronous transfer orbits. The first launch made little progress. According to one DRDO km-range variant.” The Indian Army ordered of the rocket is scheduled for 1997 or 1998. official, the successful sale of Indian defense 75 of these missiles, production of which is The GSLV has a budget of Rs2 billion in 1997, technology will require the government to currently underway. Kalam said the Indian up from Rs1.4 billion in 1996. In 1997, India’s provide concessions, permission for exports, government had not yet taken a decision on project to develop a cryogenic upper stage and long-term order guarantees. DRDO offi- the Agni IRBM and added that “we have to for the GSLV will receive Rs490 million, down cials said major progress had been made in decide on using it and how to use it.” The from Rs530 million in 1996. India’s Polar Sat- the development of a defense technology DRDO has tested the Agni on three occa- ellite Launch Vehicle project will receive base, including manufacturing and techni- sions. cal expertise. According to scientists, India Dinesh Kumar, Times of India (Bombay), 9/13/ Rs840 million in 1997, while the Vikram 96, p. 1; in FBIS-NES-96-180, 9/13/96 (6598). Sarabhai Space Center, a space technology continues to confront difficulties in acquir- research and development facility at ing spare parts. DRDO experts said the gov- ernment is increasingly aware that India 9/26/96 Thiruvananthapuram in southern India, will ISRO conducted the 14th and final test of an receive Rs840 million. ISRO’s Liquid Propul- desperately needs to become self-sufficient in the production of sophisticated defense indigenously designed, 1 MT cryogenic en- sion Systems Centre (LPSC), which devel- gine at LPSC in Mahendra Giri, Tamil Nadu. ops auxiliary propulsion systems for technology and missile systems. According to scientists, the Atmabodh project will con- The 1 MT engine is a sub-scale version of satellites and SLVs, and cryogenic and liq- the 7.5 MT engine to be used in the third

146 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 Missile Developments stage of the GSLV. During the successful two- tion of maps and computer-based C2 sys- officials, India will try to conclude agreements minute test, the engine used liquid oxygen tems. with Israel on weapons and technology trans- and liquid nitrogen as required for the work- Pravin Sawhney, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 10/9/96, fer. However, one official in New Delhi said ing version of the engine. p. 35 (6609). Israeli-Indian relations will be restricted to Gayatri Chandrashekar, Doordarshan Television the “purchase of select equipment with tech- Network (Delhi), 10/7/96; in FBIS-NES-96-197, INDIA WITH: nology transfer.” According to P. R. 10/7/96 (6590). All India Radio Network (Delhi), 10/7/96; in FBIS-NES-96-197, 10/7/96 (6590). Canada, 140 Kumaraswamy, an Indian citizen conducting China and Pakistan, 141 research at Hebrew University’s Truman In- 10/9/96* stitute, conclusion of the talks would allow Military planners in India are considering a INDIA WITH ISRAEL New Delhi to evaluate Israeli requests to get involved in India’s modernization program. significant doctrinal shift that has been in- 7/30/96 A number of Israeli defense firms have mar- fluenced by the potential nuclear capabili- Indian Air Force Chief Satish Kumar Sareen keted defense equipment in India. This ties of Pakistan and India and the integration arrived in Israel for discussions with air force equipment has included command, control, of ballistic missiles into the Indian artillery. officials and representatives from the de- and communications systems, electronic As a result, the Indian artillery is being re- fense industry. India has begun talks with countermeasures, radar, and satellite navi- oriented away from providing combat sup- Israel on a range of upgrade packages for its gation aides. Israel Aircraft Industries and port for infantry and armored vehicles armed forces. If the negotiations are success- Silver Arrow are competing to sell UAVs to towards performing direct support and ful, the resulting deal would end India’s reli- India. Kumaraswamy said the appointment counter-bombardment duties, and “indepen- ance on Russian technology and hardware. of a defense attaché to the Indian embassy dent operational taskings.” India’s Field Ar- A deal with India could provide Israeli in- in Tel Aviv will strengthen the military rela- tillery uses Soviet-designed, 20.4 km-range, dustry with more than $400 million worth of tionship between India and Israel. Accord- 122 mm-caliber BM-21 Grad multiple rocket contracts to supply sub-systems and tech- ing to diplomats, since India established launchers (MRL) for counter-battery and nology to upgrade New Delhi’s Russian-de- complete diplomatic relations with Israel in general support purposes. The DRDO has signed weapon systems. According to 1992, the two countries have conducted de- developed the 40 km-range, 12 barrel, 212 Indian sources, the Indian Air Force asked fense cooperation talks in secret. Both coun- mm-caliber, Pinaka MRL, which is undergo- the Tamam division of Israel Aircraft Indus- tries have denied that such cooperation has ing final user trials and will probably enter tries Ltd. to install new integrated tactical occurred. Kumaraswamy doubted that Israel service in 1997. India produces ammunition inertial navigation and Global Positioning would be granted contracts for a “signifi- for the Grad and manufactures a 100 kg war- Systems on board its Mirage 2000H and MiG- cant portion” of India’s modernization pro- head for the Pinaka rocket. India is currently 27M aircraft. Also, the Indian Navy is cur- gram because Western firms and new players developing a high-explosive fragmentation rently negotiating the purchase of 12 Barak like South Africa are competing for bids, es- warhead and a cluster submunition for the SAMs from the Israeli firm Rafael. The mis- pecially for MiG upgrades. Close ties be- Pinaka. The 150 km-range Prithvi SS-150 SSM siles will be fitted on board the warship INS tween India and Russia are an additional is the Field Artillery’s longest-range system. Delhi, which is being built at Mazagon Dock obstacle in the way of Israel’s expansion into The Prithvi has a 1,000 kg payload capability in Bombay. Abdul Kalam visited Israel on 6/ the Indian market. Kumaraswamy said Rus- and will equip the newly established 333 29/96 to examine the potential for integrating sia had a considerable advantage, because Missile Group at Secunderabad. The pro- Israeli technology into India’s 20-30-year-old India hopes to reschedule its estimated $12- posed organization of the 333 Missile Group military plants. Israel and India established 15 billion defense debt to Russia. According includes: a missile group headquarters; a me- diplomatic relations in 1992, but the two coun- to Kumaraswamy, India’s close ties with the teorological troop; a survey troop; a com- tries have cooperated on nuclear and defense Muslim world are a further factor working munications battery; a support sub-group projects for over three decades, according against Israeli interests. Indian experts ac- with warhead-change vehicles and missile to Indian and Israeli sources. knowledge that certain characteristics of Is- reloads; and a SSM sub-group with a com- Pakistan Link, http://www.kaiwan.com/~pakistan, mand post, four Prithvi launchers, missile 8/9/96 (6604). Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, raeli foreign policy make India uncomfortable, reload vehicles, a survey section, and a me- 8/5/96-8/11/96, pp. 3, 18 (6665). including Israel’s campaign against Islamic teorological section. The Field Artillery has fundamentalism and its close defense rela- attached a high priority to procuring UAVs. 10/96 tionship with China, which has strong de- India’s UAV command posts will be located According to officials in Jerusalem and New fense ties with Pakistan. Delhi, Israel was close to concluding nego- Steve Rodan and Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense with the divisional and/or corps counter- News, 10/21/96-10/27/96, p. 27 (6653). bombardment command posts. Because the tiations to participate in India’s military mod- Indian government has not attached a high ernization program. Indian officials said the priority to acquiring artillery locating , groundwork was being laid for the Israeli and the Field Artillery plans to acquire better Indian defense ministers to discuss poten- means for target analysis and standardiza- tial areas for cooperation. According to these

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 147 Missile Developments

INDIA WITH RUSSIA INDIA WITH SLOVAKIA fense Industries Organization (DIO) recog- 7/96 10/96 nized the need for an alloy steel plant during the war with Iraq, “when some countries re- Defense officials in India and Russia worked On a two-day trip to Slovakia, Indian Presi- fused to sell alloy steel to Iran.” Rafsanjani to strengthen their bilateral relationship and dent S. D. Sharma obtained a pledge from said destroyed artillery and tank scraps will to negotiate a package of proposals cover- Slovakian Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar that be salvaged from battlefields to be converted ing weapons technology transfer and the his country would not sell arms to Pakistan. to steel in the plant. He added that an addi- joint production of aircraft. The officials plan Because Slovakia inherited most of tional alloy steel plant is being built in Iran’s to have the package ready for approval by Czechoslovakia’s defense industry follow- southern province of Yazd. 11/15/96. According to officials, the three- ing the country’s breakup, the Indian del- Iran Business Digest, http://www.neda.net/ibd, 8/ year program could begin in 1997, if ap- egation was interested in cementing defense 22/96 (6556). proved. Officials in Moscow said Russia may links between the two countries “in the mat- license ordnance technology and aircraft for ter of spare-parts and equipment.” Kuchar, 9/9/96* joint production with India. Co-production director general of the Political Section of Iranian sources revealed that Iran has initi- of defense equipment would suit the plans the Slovak Republic’s Foreign Ministry, said ated a new ballistic missile program code- of India’s new United Front government to his country understood India’s defense named the (“Earthquake”). Pentagon strengthen the country’s defense industry. needs and that India was a reliable partner. officials who track Iranian weapons pro- Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 7/29/96-8/4/ Sharma’s visit produced an agreement to in- grams said that, although they are aware of 96, p. 46 (6663). crease scientific and technological coopera- Zelzal, Iran’s intentions and achievements tion between India and Slovakia, which was 7/22/96 in missile development “remain unclear.” signed by Maqbood Dar, India’s minister of Since 1991, the Zelzal program has produced Rosvoorouzhenie spokesman Valery state in the Union Home Ministry, and Eva the solid-fuel Zelzal-1 missile with a range of Pogrebenkov said Russia has solid arms Slavkovska, Slovakia’s minister of education. 100-150 km, and the solid-fuel Zelzal-2 mis- trade links with India, which is one of The five-year agreement is renewable for sile with a range of 350-400 km. Both Zelzal- Russia’s two principal customers. Data main- three-year periods and provides for the ex- 1 and Zelzal-2 “bear some resemblance to tained by Rosvoorouzhenie, the state-run change of scientific and technological infor- known Chinese missiles.” Most recently, arms export agency, indicates that Russia mation, and the establishment of a joint engineers from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard produced 70 percent of the equipment used committee to facilitate scientific cooperation. Corps used technology from Russia, China, by India’s armed forces, including 12 A group of business representatives travel- North Korea, and Germany to design the Tunguska anti-aircraft systems, 10 MiG-29 ing with Sharma reached agreement with the Zelzal-3 ballistic missile. The Revolutionary fighter aircraft, and 400 MiG-21 fighter air- Slovak Chamber of Commerce on six propos- Guard Corps is designing the Zelzal-3 to craft. Moscow and New Delhi have signed als, including three involving the joint mar- “meet specific Iranian military requirements.” military contracts worth $2 billion, and $7 keting and manufacture of chemicals and The Zelzal-3 is designed to have a range of billion worth of upgrades are planned pesticides. 1,000-1,500 km and will be capable of striking through 2000. A senior Rosvoorouzhenie Harish Khari, Hindu, http://www.webpage.com/ Israel. Iran hopes to have a prototype avail- official said co-production was a new ele- hindu, 10/11/96 (6603). able for a test launch by 1998. The Zelzal-3 ment in Russia’s relationship with India and resembles North Korea’s No-dong missile. could prove very profitable. The official did However, the No-dong is believed to use liq- not specify the type of technology that uid fuel, while the Zelzal program is based would be involved. According to Indian of- IRAN on solid-fuel technology that Iran received ficials, a plan under negotiation calls for gen- from Germany and China. Also, while the No- eral military cooperation, including personnel dong-1 has a range of 1,000 km, and the No- exchanges for training purposes, information dong-2 has a range of 1,500 km, the range of exchange, joint military exercises, technol- INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS the Zelzal-3 falls between these two missiles. ogy transfer, and the joint production of cer- 8/20/96 Although Iranian sources said a major bal- tain defense equipment. Indian officials said Iranian President Akbar H. Rafsanjani inau- listic missile test launch was scheduled in Russia is ready to grant India licenses to pro- gurated ’s Alloy Steel Complex, which Iran on 8/16/96, these reports have not been duce fighter aircraft and ordnance systems, was built by Iranian experts and engineers. confirmed. The Zelzal program is managed which could involve the transfer of technol- The complex is expected to produce 30,000 by the Self-Sufficiency Department of the ogy for anti-missile systems, air-defense tons of various types of alloy steel each year. Revolutionary Guard, which also oversees systems, Su-30 aircraft, ammunition, torpe- The steel will be used in the defense, air- several research-and-development facilities does, and other support equipment for land- craft, ship-building, heavy machinery, oil, throughout Iran, including the factories in , sea-, and air-based weapon systems. and gas industries, as well as in construc- Isfahan and where the Zelzal-1 and Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 7/29/96-8/4/ tion materials, pipe, moulding, and spring 96, p. 46 (6663). Zelzal-2 are produced. The majority of the production. Rafsanjani said the Iranian De-

148 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 Missile Developments research and development for the Zelzal pro- copter. The 1,000 MT, 88 m-long destroyer IRAN WITH NORTH KOREA gram is being conducted by the Defense will be capable of 30 knots. According to the 10/16/96* Technology and Science Research Center Iranian newspaper Jomhuri Islami, Shafi’i Japanese news agency, Jiji, and NHK televi- (DTSRC), a unit of Iran’s Defense Industries said Iran is “conducting research on land, sion reported that North Korea is planning Organization. DTSRC’s main facility is lo- sea and air missiles.” to test-launch a 1,000 km-range No-dong-1 cated in , near Tehran. DTSRC devel- Resalat (Tehran), 9/23/96, p. 1; in FBIS-NES- missile into the Sea of Japan. According to ops guidance systems, propellants, and 96-191, 9/23/96 (6521). Washington Post, 9/24/ 96, p. 14 (6521). Jiji, representatives from the Iranian military solid- and liquid-fuel engines, and also con- were present at the proposed launch site, ducts “aerodynamics and wind-tunnel stud- IRAN WITH: apparently to observe the missile’s perfor- ies.” The Zelzal program has also been mance prior to purchase. There are reports supported by a computer research center in China, 141 that Iran assisted North Korea with the fund- the Lavizan military district north of Tehran ing of its No-dong-1 program, and expects and by a missile test facility in the suburbs IRAN WITH ISRAEL, LEBANON, AND to receive 150 No-dong-1s, along with manu- of Semnan. The Iranian sources report that YRIA S facturing equipment, when the program is several problems have delayed the develop- 8/13/96 finished. In 3/96, Commander-in-Chief of U.S. ment of the Zelzal-3, including the casting of Israel’s Chief of Staff Lt. General Amnon Central Command General Binford Peay large, solid-fuel rocket motors, and the manu- Shahak informed the Foreign Affairs and stated that Iran was building tunnels along facture of composites needed for the re-en- Defense Committee of Israel’s parliament that its coast for either the storage or launching try vehicle. Chinese experts have been Lebanon-based guerrillas may of No-dong-1 missiles. providing assistance in the development of possess 1,000 unguided rockets, most of Reuter, 10/16/96 (6561). Nicholas D. Kristof, guidance systems and solid-fuel technology which were airlifted from Iran via New York Times, 10/22/96, p. A11 (6561). for the Zelzal-3, while Russian experts are Airport in Syria. Thirty of the rockets were believed to be providing assistance with the reported to be Iranian-produced 240 mm-cali- IRAN WITH NORTH KOREA AND design of the Zelzal. Russian experts are also ber models with a range of 40 km, sufficient UNITED STATES conducting theoretical classes on compos- to reach the Israeli coastal cities of Haifa and 6/12/96 ites at DTSRC, Sharif University, Amir Kabir Acre. Some Israeli officials believe the 240 The U.S. published its imposition of sanc- University, and the Science and Industry mm-caliber rockets will be launched from tions against North Korean and Iranian enti- University. The Iranian sources say that more secure sites north of the Israeli-occu- ties for their violation of the U.S. Arms Export Iran’s design of the Zelzal-3 calls for a “rus- pied “security zone” in southern Lebanon. Control Act and the Missile Technology tic” missile, which uses simple guidance com- Although Lebanese sources were unable to Control Regime (MTCR). The sanctions, ef- ponents that have been purchased from confirm that Hezbollah possessed 240 mm- fective from 5/24/96 to 5/24/98, prohibit U.S. German and Swiss companies. The Zelzal-3 caliber rockets, the guerrillas have warned businesses and government entities from has a circular error probable (CEP) of 4 km. they possess longer-range systems. engaging in missile-technology-related ex- Information is not available on possible pay- Hezbollah’s reported stockpile of 1,000 un- ports with: Changgwang Credit Company loads for the Zelzal-3. Iran could develop a guided rockets consists primarily of 120 mm- (North Korea), the Ministry of Defense radiological warhead using spent nuclear fuel caliber and 127 mm-caliber models with a Armed Forces Logistics (Iran), and the State from its U.S., Chinese, and Russian reactors, maximum range of 22 km, which would allow Purchasing Office of Iran. or it could produce warheads using the bio- the guerrillas to hit towns and settlements Federal Register, Vol. 61, No. 114, 6/12/96, p. logical warfare agents the U.S. Central Intel- on Israel’s northern border, but not major 29785. Pak Tu-sik, Choson Ilbo (Seoul), 6/30/ ligence Agency has claimed Iran is urban areas. Hezbollah has not launched any 96, p. 1; in FBIS-EAS-96-127 (6569). producing. Katyusha rockets into northern Israel since Iran Brief, 9/9/96, pp. 1-2 (6520). Iran Brief, 10/ IRAN WITH RUSSIA 1/96, p. 3 (6520). 4/27/96, after possibly exhausting its arsenal by launching 750 rockets into northern Is- 8/27/96 9/22/96 rael and the “security zone” earlier in the Mehdi Safari, Iran’s ambassador to Russia, The deputy commander of the Naval Forces month. Shahak said that Hezbollah has never said that Russia had agreed to help Iran pro- of the Islamic Republic of Iran in charge of possessed as much weaponry before and the duce and launch the country’s first satellite coordination, Second Rear Admiral guerrillas pose “a significant threat” to Is- within the next three years. Safari did not Mohammed Husayn Shafi’i, told a group of rael. comment on the purpose or type of satellite James Bruce, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 8/21/96, p. but said that an agreement had been signed, correspondents that Iran is currently work- 3 (6475). ing on the design and construction of a de- “according to which the technology to build stroyer, which will be armed with a satellite will be transferred to Iran in three anti-, anti-surface, and anti-aircraft stages.” systems, as well as a missile-equipped heli- Washington Report On Middle East Affairs, 10/ 96, p. 31 (6555).

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 149 Missile Developments

the Iraqi opposition movement before he UNSCOM inspectors had approached him defected to Damascus from Iraq. A U.S. gov- more than once, and that the Iraqi opposi- IRAQ ernment official said that al- Sammara’i was tion movement will do anything “to rescue not a central figure in the Iraqi opposition the region from all these dangers and from movement and that he was attempting to build despotism.” a future for himself. However, the official Paige Bowers, Washington Times, 7/31/96, p. A15 INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS admitted that al-Sammara’i was one of nu- (6617). Nicole Tannuri, MBC Television (Lon- don), 7/7/96; in FBIS-NES-96-131, 7/7/96 7/1/96 merous Iraqis the U.S. government consulted (6617). UNSCOM chief Rolf Ekeus told a news con- about weapons information and that he was ference in Kuwait City that Iraq may be con- “in a position to know a lot of things.” The 7/14/96* cealing between six and 16 long-range official added that there was a great amount During an interview in London, Iyad ‘Allawi, ballistic missiles capable of delivering con- of uncertainty over exactly what Iraq was secretary-general of the Iraqi National Ac- ventional, biological, or chemical warheads. hiding. In an interview with the London- cord Movement, said the Iraqi government Ekeus said Iraq claimed it destroyed the mis- based Al-Majallah newspaper, al-Sammara’i continues to hide long-range SSMs and siles in 1991, but had failed to provide evi- said Iraq might be able to conceal Scud mis- WMD. ‘Allawi said Iraq has 13 missiles dence proving this. According to Ekeus, siles by burying them in containers after de- mounted on board trucks that continually UNSCOM was concerned that Iraq contin- taching sensitive components because “it is move around Iraq. ‘Allawi speculated that a ued to conceal prohibited items and to give not possible to scan the entire territory for recent dispute between Iraq and U.N. weap- the commission false information. Ekeus radioactivity” using satellites. Al- Sammara’i ons inspectors may have occurred because emphasized that UNSCOM will increase its said many of Iraq’s missiles are armed with they had acquired information about one of scrutiny of Iraq if Baghdad does not cooper- chemical or biological warheads. Al- these missiles. According to the National ate. During his visit to Kuwait, Ekeus met Sammara’i told the newspaper that the So- Accord Movement’s military members, Iraq’s with the Emir of Kuwait, Jabir al-Ahmad al- viet Union exported approximately 1,000 Scud missiles can be armed with nuclear and bio- Sabah, Prime Minister Sa’d al-’Abdallah al- missiles to Iraq and the range of these mis- logical warheads. ‘Allawi said Saddam Sabah, and several other officials, to discuss siles was increased from 300 to 600 km to Hussein is hiding Iraq’s missiles for three recent developments concerning Iraq’s produce a modified version known as Al- reasons: to defeat internal military rebellion; WMD program. Hussein. According to al-Sammara’i, Iraq to deter or to attack other countries in the Washington Times, 7/2/96, p. A12 (6616). Kuna later indigenously produced these missiles region; and to preserve Saddam’s remaining (Kuwait), 7/1/96; in FBIS-NES-96-128, 7/1/96 and their engines. Al-Sammara’i said Iraq’s mass destruction weapons. According to (6616). Sulayman al-’As’usi, MBC Television possession of a small number of long-range (London), 7/1/96; in FBIS-NES-96-128, 7/1/96 ‘Allawi, the National Accord Movement be- (6616). Al-Quds Al-’Arabi (London), 7/2/96, p. missiles confirmed ’s desire lieves the U.N. inspectors have not found all 15; in FBIS-NES-96-129, 7/2/96 (6616). Reuter, to possess biological weapons. According of Iraq’s WMD. ‘Allawi said that Iraq may 7/1/96; in Executive News Service, 7/2/96 (6616). to al-Sammara’i, Iraq will be capable of pro- be hiding documents on WMD at locations ducing long-range missiles once UNSCOM in Iraq, including houses, and that Saddam 7/96 inspectors have been withdrawn from the is trying to buy time to conceal additional In an interview with the Washington Times, country for a prolonged period. Al-Sammara’i weapons. According to ‘Allawi, Iraq’s ac- General Wafiq al-Sammara’i, former head of added that the regime’s relations with the cess to weapons technologies could be re- Iraqi external military intelligence who de- Western firms that provided Iraq with WMD- stricted further if neighboring countries were fected to Syria in 11/94, said Iraq possessed related technology and materials “are essen- briefed on Iraq’s WMD documents and al- approximately 40 Scud SSMs, and not six to tially there.” He added that the Iraqi regime lowed to examine the remaining weapons 16 as the United Nations Special Commis- would resume these contacts once the nec- threat. ‘Allawi said Kuwait, , and sion (UNSCOM) had estimated. Al-Sammara’i essary funds became available. should be more involved because said Iraq’s Special Security Apparatus pur- Paige Bowers, Washington Times, 7/31/96, p.15 they are vulnerable to Iraq’s missiles, while chased 50 flatbed trucks in 7/96 to move (6617). Ghalib Darwish, Al-Majallah (London), 7/28/96-8/3/96, pp. 30-31; in FBIS-NES-96-149, France, the United Kingdom, and the United physical evidence away from areas where 8/3/96 (6617). Nicole Tannuri, MBC Television States are not. UNSCOM inspectors might discover it. (London), 7/7/96; in FBIS-NES-96-131, 7/7/96 Ghalib Darwish, Al-Majallah (London), 7/14/96- UNSCOM spokesman Ewen Buchanan said (6617). 7/20/96, pp. 33-34; in FBIS-NES-96-138, 7/17/ the United Nations knew Iraq was using 96 (6582). flatbed trucks to conceal banned material. 7/7/96 According to al-Sammara’i, Iraq would re- Wafiq al-Sammara’i told London-based MBC 7/16/96 main a threat even if UNSCOM eliminated all television that Iraq’s 40 Al-Hussein missiles UNSCOM inspectors in Iraq were stopped of its prohibited weapons because the coun- are armed with conventional, chemical, and on the road to Saddam Hussein International try would retain the manufacturing facilities bacteriological warheads, and that Iraq pos- Airport because they had entered a “presi- for them. Al-Sammara’i said he was part of sessed 250 biological shells. He added that dential area.” The team was attempting to

150 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 Missile Developments inspect a suspected weapon storage site near had established a special mission to study U.N. in an effort to prevent it from the airport, which UNSCOM had first at- the techniques used by Iraq to hide weap- inspecting a suspect installation. tempted to access in 6/96. Iraq’s oil minister, ons. AFP (Paris), 8/28/96; in FBIS-NES-96-169, 8/ Lieutenant General Mohammed Rasheed, New York Times, 7/20/96, p. A4 (6583). New York 28/96 (6658). accompanied the team and was allowed to Times, 7/23/96, p. A4 (6583). proceed through road blocks but only after 8/28/96 the UNSCOM inspectors were delayed for 7/22/96 Rolf Ekeus departed from Baghdad and told over two hours. It is feared that the Iraqis Nikita Smidovich, a Russian ballistic missile reporters in Bahrain he had received assur- moved prohibited materials from the suspect expert, and his team of 34 UNSCOM inspec- ances that Iraq would not block future site during the delay. According to Rolf tors departed from Iraq. searches. Ekeus said he discussed helicop- Ekeus, Iraq conceals weapons and related New York Times, 7/23/96, p. A4 (6583). ter operations and the movement of inspec- materials by transporting them around on tors with the Iraqis, as well as measures “on 8/23/96 railway cars and trucks when UNSCOM in- how to proceed with interviews.” Accord- spectors are about to arrive at a suspect site. The Security Council issued a statement in ing to Ekeus, UN ballistic missile and chemi- UPI, 8/23/96; in Executive News Service, 8/26/ support of Ekeus and his weapons inspec- cal and biological weapon experts will travel 96 (6660). Evelyn Leopold, Reuter, 8/22/96; in tors prior to a scheduled visit to Baghdad. to Iraq in 9/96 to test Baghdad’s pledge to Executive News Service, 8/26/96 (6660). Ekeus will be accompanied by Nikita refrain from hindering the activities of Smidovich who led most of the teams that UNSCOM. 7/17/96 have been in standoffs with the Iraqis. The AFP (Paris), 8/28/96; in FBIS-NES-96-169, 8/ Rolf Ekeus said Iraq refused to allow U.N. statement said Iraq must provide UNSCOM 28/96 (6658). weapons inspectors to search an installation with “immediate, unconditional and unre- near Baghdad on 7/16/96. The inspectors had stricted access to any and all areas, facili- 9/96 planned to look for remnants and documen- ties, equipment, records and means of ‘Abd-al-Baqi al-Sa’dun, a member of the Re- tation from Iraq’s missile and chemical and transportation which they wish to inspect, gional Command of the ‘Aflaqite [Ba’th] Party biological weapons programs at the installa- and Iraqi officials whom they wish to inter- in Iraq, said the Iraqi regime had positioned tion. On 6/22/96, Ekeus and Tariq Aziz, Iraq’s view.” According to the statement, the Se- long-range missiles with chemical warheads deputy prime minister, agreed that U.N. in- curity Council was very concerned that Iraq in Diyala Governorate in order to launch them spectors would be given unconditional ac- had failed repeatedly to meet its obligations against Kuwait “if Iraq faces a direct threat cess after they were denied entry to several under the terms of the U.N. resolutions re- from the U.S.” The missiles are mounted on Iraqi sites. According to Ekeus, Iraq claimed lated to the 1990-91 . Ekeus said he trucks and are constantly on the move to it had dismantled all of its prohibited weap- did not believe Iraq’s claim to have destroyed avoid U.S. air-strikes. Al-Sa’dun made these ons but had failed to present any evidence the missile, chemical, biological, and nuclear remarks at a private meeting of leading fig- to prove this. items that remain unaccounted for. The Se- ures of the regime’s party in al-Basrah and New York Times, 7/18/96, p. A5 (6583). curity Council warned Baghdad that only al-Nasiriyah Governorates. Al-Sa’dun added complete compliance with its weapons obli- that during the war with Iran, Iraq had a simi- 7/18/96 gations would result in the lifting of sanc- lar plan to launch missiles armed with chemi- UNSCOM inspectors called off their mission tions that were imposed on Iraq after the cal warheads against Tehran if Iranian forces after they were refused access to the instal- 1990-91 Gulf War. reached Baghdad. According to sources lation near Baghdad for 60 hours. In re- UPI, 8/23/96; in Executive News Service, 8/26/ from the Islamic revolution mujahedin in al- sponse, U.N. Security Council President 96 (6660). Evelyn Leopold, Reuter, 8/23/96; in Basrah, trailers carrying surface-to-surface Alain Dejammet ordered Nizar Hamdoon, Executive News Service, 8/26/96 (6660). Evelyn missiles set up camp north of al-‘Amarah Leopold, Reuter, 8/22/96; in Executive News Ser- Iraq’s delegate to the United Nations, to ac- vice, 8/26/96 (6660). along with the 130th Artillery Brigade. The count for his country’s actions for the sec- sources said Republican Guard armored ond time in a week. 8/26/96 units and several missile launchers had been New York Times, 7/18/96, p. A5 (6583). New York deployed in the Gulf area in Umm Qasr Dis- Times, 7/20/96, p. A4 (6583). Rolf Ekeus traveled to Baghdad with a Secu- rity Council declaration demanding that Iraq trict, and some units had been moved to provide U.N. weapon inspectors with unre- Sanam Mountain on Iraq’s border with Ku- 7/19/96 wait. The U.N. Security Council ordered Iraq to stricted access to military installations in their search for prohibited materials. UNSCOM Voice of Rebellious Iraq (Clandestine), 9/16/96; grant UNSCOM unrestricted access to its in FBIS-NES-96-182, 9/16/96 (6546). weapons facilities. Iraq claimed the inspec- inspectors complained previously that Iraq tors were not obstructed from searching the prevented them from searching several in- 9/3/96 facility near Baghdad, and they were only stallations and disrupted interviews on weap- The Security Council voted to maintain eco- barred from using a presidential highway to ons issues. According to U.N. officials, the nomic sanctions against Iraq after Rolf Ekeus reach it. Rolf Ekeus said the United Nations first series of confrontations reached a crisis reported that Baghdad had given the com- point when Iraqi anti-aircraft guns tracked a

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 151 Missile Developments mission “conscientiously misleading state- cess had not been completed. is monitoring the situation in Iraq and the ments” on the concealment and movement Evelyn Leopold, Reuter, 10/11/96; in Executive is on normal alert status. of documents related to its proscribed weap- News Service, 10/15/96 (6657). R. Jeffrey Smith, The Israeli defense establishment instituted Washington Post, 10/12/96, p. A25 (6657). Wash- ons programs. According to Ekeus, Iraq’s ington Times, 10/12/96, p.A8 (6657). “a series of technical steps” to ensure that Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz admitted Israel will not be taken by surprise in the that Iraq had concealed and moved docu- 10/21/96 event of a Scud missile attack, according to ments. Ekeus informed the council he was At the end of a three-day trip to Baghdad, a senior Israeli defense official. Also, Israel not satisfied that Iraq had disclosed every- Ekeus said Iraq did not provide any new in- now has direct access to data from U.S. sat- thing about its long-range missiles, its chemi- formation on its weapons programs. How- ellites to provide early warning of any mis- cal and biological weapons programs, and ever, Ekeus said the Iraqis agreed to discuss sile attack. The direct line from the satellite the related documentation. the issue of prohibited weapons that remain sensor will increase Israel’s warning time if Anthony Goodman, Reuter, 9/3/96; in Executive Iraq launches Scud missiles against Israel. News Service, 9/4/96 (6659). unaccounted for. According to Ekeus, UNSCOM had neutralized Iraq’s ballistic mis- Israel had been denied direct access to this information in the past. During the 1990-91 10/11/96 sile program, but had yet to account for “hopefully not more than 16 missiles.” Ekeus Gulf War, Israel received early warning infor- Rolf Ekeus submitted UNSCOM’s semi-an- mation on Iraqi missile launches from U.S. nual report on Iraq’s missile and WMD pro- met with senior Iraqi officials in Baghdad, including Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz, satellites via Washington, where the data was grams to the U.N. Security Council. stored and then transmitted through normal According to the report, Iraq has still not Foreign Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf, presidential advisor General Saadi Tu’ma communications channels. This process was fully accounted for all of its banned weap- time consuming. ons, items, and capabilities in its ballistic Abbas, and Oil Minister Mohammed Rasheed, who previously headed Iraq’s Mili- Eytan Rabin and Amnon Barzilay, Ha’aretz (Tel missile program. U.S. intelligence officials Aviv), 9/4/96, p. A1; in FBIS-NES-96-172, 9/4/ said they concurred with this assessment of tary Commission. According to UNSCOM 96 (6522). Iraq’s missile program. UNSCOM accused Deputy Chief Charles Duelfer, Iraq’s disclo- Iraq of “systematically concealing” pro- sures since its 6/96 pledge to provide the commission with unrestricted access to sus- scribed weapons. In recent months, Iraq pre- ISRAEL vented U.N. weapons inspectors on several pected weapons sites have been “flawed and occasions from inspecting suspected weap- incomplete.” Baghdad submitted nine letters ons-related installations under control of to UNSCOM in an attempt to clarify these Iraq’s Special Republican Guard. According issues. Hassan Hafidh, Reuter, 10/21/96; in Executive INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS to the report, U.N. inspectors were delayed News Service, 10/21/96 (6656). Leon Barkho, while unidentified items, including “objects Reuter, 10/20/96; in Executive News Service, 10/ 7/96* resembling Scud ballistic missiles,” were re- 21/96 (6656). Washington Times, 10/22/96, p.12 Rafael’s Moab missile is designed to be part moved from these installations on trucks. In (6656). of the Israeli Boost-phase Intercept System 7/96, UNSCOM inspectors saw a convoy of (IBIS), which is intended to intercept theater trucks leave a Special Republican Guard in- IRAQ WITH ISRAEL ballistic missiles (TBMs) shortly after launch stallation carrying what the Iraqis admitted 9/3/96 using missiles mounted on board UAVs fly- looked like prohibited Scud missiles. Accord- After a series of meetings with Israeli De- ing at high altitudes. The Moab will have a ing to the report, Iraq did not allow UNSCOM fense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai, the Israeli range of 100 km when fired from an altitude to inspect the objects in question. The re- defense establishment determined there was of 50,000 ft and a range of 80 km when fired port said UNSCOM “continues to believe a low probability that Iraq would attack Is- from 30,000 ft. The Moab will be based on that limited but highly significant quantities rael with Scud missiles. This conclusion was Rafael’s Python-4 air-to-air missile, but will (of arms) may remain, as Iraq has not been based on repeated declarations by Saddam incorporate a new booster to accelerate the able to account for a number of proscribed Hussein that Iraq does not possess Scud round to a velocity of 1.5-2 km/s. Sources at missiles and certain high-quality chemical missiles or launchers. If Iraq launched Scuds Rafael said that existing technology has been warfare agents.” The report said UNSCOM at Israel, this would prove that Saddam taken to its limits to develop a system ca- had destroyed 48 operational missiles, six Hussein had lied about his missile capabili- pable of destroying TBMs at a reasonable mobile missile launchers, 14 conventional ties to the U.N., and would damage his cost. Because the speeds of engagement will warheads, and other equipment. However, chances of improving his status within the be kept just below the aeroheating thresh- the report said Iraq’s policies and actions of international community. An unnamed “se- old, the Moab will not need a protective cap concealment had impeded the rapid imple- nior defense establishment source” said Iraq and it will not be necessary to cool the infra- mentation of UNSCOM’s objectives. Ekeus was capable of firing Scud missiles but “the red seeker or dome. Costs will be kept down said he thought most of Iraq’s missiles had assessment is that this capability is very low.” because the Moab locks onto its target after been found, although the accounting pro- According to the source, Israeli intelligence launch and does not require a datalink. Pro-

152 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 Missile Developments duction of the Arrow anti-tactical ballistic the 600 km-range Scud-C can carry a pay- ing the sale of Rafael’s Python-4 infrared missile system recently took priority over the load of 500 kg and is capable of attacking guided missiles and upgrading Turkey’s Moab project. The U.S. Ballistic Missile De- heavily populated areas in Israel. The sta- Northrop F-5 aircraft. Israel is currently work- fense Organization is currently giving the tion reported that Syria has 20 Scud-C launch- ing out the financial details of a $600 million Israeli firm Wales further funding to initiate a ers, hundreds of Scud-C missiles, and the contract to upgrade the Turkish Air Force’s “risk-mitigation effort for IBIS as a whole.” capability to manufacture them. An Israeli McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom aircraft. This decision resulted from a recent U.S.- military spokeswoman said she was not The Turkish armed forces, particularly the Israeli agreement on ballistic missile defense. aware of any Syrian missile tests. According air force, support the establishment of closer Wales will produce prototypes of critical sub- to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin ties with Israel. systems for demonstration, including com- Netanyahu, Syria is attempting to produce Flight International, 8/28/96-9/3/96, p. 8 (6576). ponents of the UAV, Moab, search-and-track Scud missiles indigenously instead of buy- sensors, and the related command, control, ing them from foreign suppliers. Netanyahu ISRAEL WITH UNITED KINGDOM communications, and intelligence systems. said Syrian-produced Scuds have the same 10/2/96* Jane’s International Defense Review, 7/96, p. 5 capabilities as those produced elsewhere. Senior officials from the Israeli firm Rafael (6584). Avihu Bin Nun, former commander of the and the Israeli defense ministry held secret Israeli Air Force, said Syria’s missile tests 7/11/96 talks with their counterparts in the United were routine. Israeli Cabinet Secretary Dani Kingdom. As a result of these talks, Rafael Doron Rotem, general manager of Tamam, a Nave said Syria’s Scud-C missiles do not af- may be hired as a subcontractor for the pro- division of Israel Aircraft Industries’ (IAI) fect the strategic balance because the Scud- duction of the U.K.’s cruise missile of the Electronics Group, announced that the com- C program dates back several years. future. Rafael previously lost a bid to de- pany is looking to export electro-optical sys- Reuter, 8/19/96; in Executive News Service, 8/ velop and supply the missile itself. Rafael tems and payloads developed by the Tadiran 20/96 (6618). Sami Aboudi, Reuter, 8/20/96; in offered the British Ministry of Defence an Systems Division, which IAI purchased on Executive News Service, 8/20/96 (6618). Col- leen Siegel, Reuter, 8/20/96; in Executive News advanced version of its air-to-sur- 6/16/96. Products offered will include a wide Service, 8/20/96 (6618). Avi Lipschitz, IDF Ra- face missile, which is operational in both Is- range of sensors and observation systems dio (Tel Aviv), 8/21/96; in FBIS-NES-96-163, 8/ rael and the United States. In part, Rafael for UAVs, , aircraft, and other plat- 21/96 (6618). Kinda Jayoush, Reuter, 8/21/96; failed to win the contract because it did not forms. The acquisition of Tadiran provides in Executive News Service, 8/21/96 (6618). Reuter, 8/19/96; in Executive News Service, 8/ sign a production and cooperation agreement Yehud-based Tamam with products such as 21/96, (6618). with a British company before the winner was long-range standoff systems, the Moked announced. During the talks, it was agreed family of payloads used on the Pioneer UAV, ISRAEL WITH TURKEY that British Aerospace (BAe), which won the and the Night Targeting System used on the cruise missile contract, would draw up a com- U.S. Marine Corps AH-1W Cobra attack he- 8/96 prehensive framework for industrial coopera- licopter. In 1995, more than 60 percent of The election of a Muslim government in Tur- tion with Rafael. As part of the plan, Rafael Tamam’s $120 million total product sales came key threatened to derail approximately $1 bil- may receive contracts to develop and sup- from exports of electro-optic products. lion worth of defense contracts between ply assemblies, which could be worth around Tadiran’s annual sales of electro-optic prod- Turkey and Israel. David Ivry, director gen- 18 percent of the deal. In addition, Rafael will ucts since 1990 have totaled approximately eral of the Israeli defense ministry, postponed market its products in Europe and other coun- $5 million. a visit to Turkey at which he was scheduled Defense News, 7/29/96, p. 40 (6473). to sign a cooperation agreement between the tries with the assistance of BAe, and both Israeli and Turkish defense industries. Israel firms will cooperate in related fields. The Is- ISRAEL WITH: is now reconsidering any transfer of ad- raeli and U.K. representatives discussed sev- eral new projects during the talks. Officials China, 141 vanced weaponry because of the Turkish government’s moves to forge a closer rela- from the U.K. expressed their dissatisfaction India, 147 tionship with Iran. In addition, Israel’s elec- regarding the “lack of balance in defense Iran, Lebanon, and Syria, 149 tion of a right-wing government could affect exports between the two countries,” claim- Iraq, 152 future defense cooperation between the two ing that Israel sold eight times as much weap- countries. Prior to the election of the new onry to the U.K. than it bought over the past ISRAEL WITH SYRIA government in Turkey, Israeli-Turkish rela- two years. tions had improved to the point where the Sharon Sade, Ha’aretz (Tel Aviv), 10/2/96, p. 8/19/96 A10; in FBIS-NES-96-193, 10/2/96 (6650). Israeli Channel Two television reported that Israeli air force was conducting training ex- ercises in Turkish airspace. In addition, Tur- Syria tested a Scud-C missile several weeks ISRAEL WITH UNITED STATES earlier with the objective of confirming the key had awarded the Israeli firm Rafael a $50 ’s ability to perform an opera- million contract for Popeye stand-off mis- 7/14/96 tional launch. According to Channel Two, siles. Also, Israel and Turkey were discuss- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel and the United States had agreed

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 153 Missile Developments

“to develop and implement an early warning pany. Lockheed Martin and Rafael are con- said that he wanted to “consider skipping system in Israel against ballistic missiles.” sidering production of a 2,500 lb Have Lite several tests” and to focus instead on “de- Netanyahu made his comments on his re- version of the AGM-142 for use on board veloping an entire operational anti-missile turn from a trip to the United States. U.S. F-16 and F/A-18 fighter aircraft, and a defense system.” Butler said little remained Netanyahu also announced that Israel and Popeye-2 version to equip fighter aircraft to be proved about the missile’s capability the United States had set a date for the joint from other countries. Israeli F-4 and F-15 and, after one more successful test, the pro- development of the Nautilus laser system de- fighters and U.S. B-52H bombers are already gram could focus on the entire system. How- signed to intercept Katyusha-type rockets. fitted with the standard 3,000 lb version of ever, Israeli defense sources were skeptical Qol Yisra’el (Jerusalem), 7/14/96; in FBIS-NES- the missile. In 1988, Lockheed began pro- about speeding up the program, despite the 96-136, 7/14/96 (6586). ducing approximately 10 percent of all AGM- intention of Israeli officials to complete the 142 missiles under license from Rafael. The Arrow-2 system by 2000. An Israeli defense 7/16/96 U.S. Air Force also designates the AGM-142 source said that one or two launches would Benjamin Netanyahu told his cabinet about as the Have Nap. not be sufficient to complete this stage of the agreement under which Israel will obtain James T. McKenna, Aviation Week & Space Tech- the Arrow-2 program. Butler said future data from U.S. satellites to provide early nology, 8/19/96, p. 88 (6477). launches of the Arrow-2 will test the missile’s warning of ballistic missile launches against interception capabilities against different tar- Israel. According to Netanyahu, U.S. Presi- 8/20/96 gets at various altitudes. The next launch of dent Bill Clinton said Israel should be linked The joint U.S.-Israeli Arrow-2 anti-tactical the Arrow-2 may take place in 11/96. If this to the U.S. satellite system by the end of ballistic missile (ATBM) successfully inter- test is successful, the U.S.-Israeli Arrow-2 1996. cepted a Scud-type missile, equipped with a team may focus efforts on the entire system. Qol Yisra’el (Jerusalem), 7/14/96; in FBIS-NES- dummy chemical warhead that had been Steve Rodan, Washington Times, 8/21/96, p. A12 96-136, 7/14/96 (6586). Government Press Of- launched from a ship in the Mediterranean (6512). Barbara Opall, Defense News, 9/2/96, p. fice (Jerusalem), 7/16/96; in FBIS-NES-96-138, Sea. According to Israeli Defense Ministry 24 (6512). Jane’s Defence Weekly, 8/28/96, p. 19 7/16/96 (6586). (6512). Flight International, 9/4/96-9/10/96, p. officials, the Arrow-2 was fired from an Is- 32 (6512). Barbara Opall, Defense News, 7/22/ 8/12/96* raeli airbase south of Tel Aviv, four minutes 96, p. 6 (6512). Steve Rodan, Defense News, 8/ The U.S.-Israeli project to develop a portable, after the target missile was launched. The 26/96-9/1/96, p. 4 (6533). high-energy laser for destroying short-range Arrow-2 “tracked, struck and destroyed a artillery rockets was accelerated when Israel Scud-type target missile” over the Mediter- 8/26/96* contributed $22 million and pledged another ranean Sea. Video footage showed that the The U.S. Congressional Budget Office sug- $7.5 million in funding for the project. The Arrow-2 traveled for most of its flight at a gested in its annual report that $3.5 billion U.S. Congress pledged additional funds in speed of approximately Mach 5, and Israeli could be saved over six years if the United the next fiscal year. The Israeli funds will fi- officials said the missile accelerated to a States ended its funding for Israel’s Arrow nance the initial costs of an $89 million con- “closing velocity” of eight times the speed ATBM program, and terminated the Navy tract that was awarded to TRW Inc. by the of sound. The Arrow-2 intercepted the tar- Upper Tier anti-missile system and the space- U.S. Army in 7/96 for the development and get “just under 30 km at a range of 50 km based Brilliant Eyes tracker. from the launch site.” The test represented James R. Asker, Aviation Week & Space Technol- testing of a single Tactical High-Energy La- ogy, 8/26/96, p. 19 (6481). ser (THEL) demonstrator. THEL is planned the first time a missile has been intercepted as a follow-on to the stationary U.S.-Israeli at such speeds and altitudes. The Green Pines radar system was used to track the 8/28/96 Nautilus system. Israeli Arrow program officials told U.S. Joseph C. Anselmo, Aviation Week and Space Arrow-2 and the target missile. This was the Technology, 8/12/96, p. 31 (6619). Flight Inter- third test launch of the Arrow-2. However, it Army Lieutenant General Lester Styles, di- national, 7/10/96-7/16/96, p. 20 (6619). Jane’s was the first of four launches in which the rector of the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense Defence Weekly, 7/10/96, p. 3 (6619). Flight In- Organization (BMDO), that the Arrow’s sys- ternational, 7/31/96-8/6/96, p. 18 (6619). Arrow-2 will attempt to intercept actual tar- gets. The Arrow-2’s homing sensors are de- tems and the warhead’s fuzing mechanism signed to detect the target and direct the functioned properly during the test on 8/20/ 8/19/96* 96. Israel Defense Minister Yitzhak The U.S. firm Lockheed Martin Electronics interceptor missile to within range of its frag- mentation warhead. According to Pam Mordechai said the launch puts Israel “in and Missiles initiated a joint venture with the global front of technological know-how.” Israel’s Rafael to market the AGM-142 “pre- Rogers, spokesperson for the U.S. Army air and missile defense program, “metal hit Encouraged by the successful test, the Is- cision guided air-to-ground missile.” The raeli government may exclude the Arrow-2’s Israeli Air Force already deploys a version metal” during the test. Following the suc- cessful launch, officials from the U.S. and funding from budget cuts and has designated of the AGM-142 called Popeye. Lockheed the system as a high priority for prototype Martin and Rafael have equal stakes in the Israel disagreed on the future development of this joint U.S.-Israeli program. Joseph development, according to Israeli sources. new venture which is called Precision Guided IAI is beginning advance production of the Systems US (PGSUS), a limited liability com- Butler, U.S. manager of the Arrow project,

154 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 Missile Developments

Arrow-2 at its Lod production facility and tion. would decide in the summer of 1997 whether plans to commence serial production by 8/ Flight International, 7/17/96-7/23/96, p. 14 to participate in the TMD system with the 97. According to Israeli sources, the Israeli (6470). United States. Although Usui said Japan Air Force should receive at least 50 Arrow-2 needed a TMD system to maintain its secu- missiles by 2/98. 8/7/96-8/8/96 rity, he added that the project would cost Steve Rodan, Washington Times, 8/21/96, p. A12 Officials from the Japanese Foreign Minis- too much. The estimated cost of the TMD (6512). Barbara Opall, Defense News, 9/2/96, p. try and the JDA were scheduled to meet with system would probably exceed the ¥25.15 24 (6512). officials from the U.S. DOD in Washington, trillion allocated for Japan’s defense budgets D.C., to discuss the proposed TMD system. in the midterm defense program for fiscal The working-level meeting is the sixth in a years 1996-2000. ITALY series held since the TMD project was initi- Kyodo (Tokyo), 0/21/96; in FBIS-EAS-96-185, ated by the Clinton administration in 1993. 9/21/96 (6666). Lt. Col. Hisashi Kasahara, Air The first meeting occurred in 12/93, and the Defense Artillery, 7/96-8/96, pp. 26-29 (6666). most recent meeting took place in Tokyo in 3/96. The JDA allocated 440 million yen for Late 10/96* ITALY WITH: TMD research and development under the Officials from the U.S. and Japanese foreign Germany, Netherlands, Turkey, and fiscal year (FY) 1996 national budget. Japan and defense ministries met in Tokyo to ex- United States, 143 has not yet decided if it will join the TMD amine the technical aspects of the proposed project, but will probably make a decision in TMD system. The next round of talks is FY 97, according to JDA officials. Although scheduled for early 1997. According to JDA the United States possesses the technology official Tatsuo Yamamoto, the next subject JAPAN to intercept ballistic missiles at high altitudes, for discussion will be Japan’s TMD require- it requires the “support of its allies to deploy ments. The U.S. firm Lockheed Martin and the system.” The U.S. DOD does not expect the Japanese firms Mitsubishi Heavy Indus- a final decision from Japan until “well into tries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries would JAPAN WITH UNITED STATES 1997.” be the most likely contractors for the TMD 7/96* Kyodo (Tokyo), 8/5/96; in FBIS-EAS-96-151, system. 8/5/96 (6514). Wall Street Journal, http:// Gwen Robinson, Financial Times, http:// The United States will supply the Japanese interactive6.wsj.com, 8/16/96 (6514). www.ft.com/archive, 10/30/96 (6651). Defense Agency (JDA) with data from its missile warning satellites as an incentive for 9/19/96 Japan to participate in a joint anti-missile U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry asked warning system. The U.S. Department of a Japanese delegation in Washington for a KUWAIT Defense (DOD) wants Japan to participate quick decision on the TMD system, describ- in a theater missile defense (TMD) system, ing it as a good opportunity for the two which the United States suggested in 1995 countries to cooperate. Japan’s 4th Air De- following North Korea’s launch of a No- pot currently has six SAM units equipped KUWAIT WITH UNITED STATES dong-1 ballistic missile into the Sea of Ja- with Patriot missiles. Each Patriot unit is as- 9/30/96 pan. According to officials in Tokyo, Japan signed to a specific air-defense sector, and Kuwaiti Minister of Defense Ahmad al- would have to spend ¥1 trillion—20 percent the 4th Air Depot coordinates all six with Hamud al-Sabah signed a contract for the of the country’s annual defense budget—to other elements of Japan’s air-defense sys- construction of a facility to “build, set up, fully deploy such a system. Beyond this fi- tem. Although Japan does not have enough and maintain” U.S. Patriot “missile launch- nancial aspect, Japan will need to consider SAM groups to defend the entire country, ing pads at various sites” in Kuwait. The the fact that some advanced TMD technolo- units could be moved from less dangerous contract was signed with “the representa- gies have yet to be proven, China opposes sectors to the main battle area in a future tive of the company that will be carrying U.S.-Japanese TMD cooperation, and the risk conflict. The Japanese Air Self-Defense out the project.” The Kuwaiti Ministry of that TMD technologies might proliferate to Force (JASDF) is fielding Patriot Advanced Defense did not provide details about the countries such as China, South Korea, and Capability-2 (PAC-2) product improvements contract or the firm that will implement it. Russia. in response to the evolving threat. Kuna (Kuwait), 9/30/96; in FBIS-NES-96-191, Indian Defence Review, 7/96-9/96, p. 77 (6608). Kyodo (Tokyo), 0/21/96; in FBIS-EAS-96-185, 9/30/96 (6530). 9/21/96 (6666). Lt. Col. Hisashi Kasahara, Air 7/17/96 Defense Artillery, 7/96-8/96, pp. 26-29 (6666). The U.S. DOD informed Congress that it plans to enhance Japan’s SM-2 Block II 9/20/96 Standard SAMs to the Block III configura- JDA Director General Hideo Usui said Japan

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 155 Missile Developments

dorsement for Ukraine to join the MTCR. the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Ukraine has been attempting to join the 28- Treaty. The United States will continue to LEBANON member regime for several years. Ukrainian work to restrict the proliferation of advanced membership will probably be discussed at a space technology to unapproved destina- 10/96 meeting of the member states in tions. When initiating space-related technol- Edinburgh, United Kingdom. In late 9/96, U.S. ogy development and transfer agreements LEBANON WITH: officials said that although Ukraine’s export with other nations, U.S. executive depart- Iran, Israel, and Syria, 149 policies are in line with MTCR guidelines, its ments and agencies will take into account arsenal of Scud-B missiles is not. According whether such nations promote fair and free to a U.S. State Department official, Ukraine trade in the commercial space sector. has so far “not been prepared to accept” the The White House, National Science And Tech- MALAYSIA U.S. position that new members must give nology Council, http://www.whitehouse.gov/WH/ EOP/OSTP/NSTC, 9/19/96 (6686). up their offensive missiles before joining the regime. U.S. officials are optimistic that 9/25/96 Ukraine will eventually sacrifice its Scud-B Volodymyr Horbulin said Ukraine “retains missiles in order to join the MTCR. By join- MALAYSIA WITH TURKEY the right to develop missiles with a range of ing the MTCR, Ukraine would prove its com- 8/17/96 up to 500 km for its own purposes.” Accord- mitment to nonproliferation and gain Turkish Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan ing to Horbulin, this range limit does not vio- opportunities to cooperate with the West in announced that Turkey and Malaysia may late the INF Treaty. Horbulin said Kiev will the commercial space launch market. In 1994, cooperate in the “fields of military electron- honor its international obligations, but Ukraine agreed to bring its missile export ics industry, optical equipment, ammunition Ukraine’s security interests could result in a policy in line with MTCR guidelines. U.S. production, and missile systems.” Erbakan “review of certain accords.” officials said they are willing to allow Ukraine made this remark in a statement issued after Uryadovyy Kuryer (Kiev), 9/24/96, p. 2; in FBIS- to maintain its missile production facilities meeting Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir SOV-96-188, 9/24/96 (6670). Itar-Tass (Mos- to develop SLVs. cow), 9/25/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-188, 9/25/96 bin Mohammed in Kuala Lumpur. Jeff Erlich, Defense News, 9/30/96-10/6/96, p. (6670). TRT Television Network (), 8/17/96; in 46 (6669). FBIS-EAS-96-161, 8/17/96 (6517). 10/7/96-10/11/96 9/19/96 During the 1996 MTCR Plenary Meeting in The Clinton administration’s National Sci- Edinburgh, United Kingdom, the partners MISSILE TECHNOLOGY ence and Technology Council released a fact supported U.S. initiatives to follow up on CONTROL REGIME sheet on U.S. National Space Policy. Accord- the success of the meetings. The partners ing to the fact sheet, MTCR guidelines are agreed to “be proactive in encouraging” key (MTCR) DEVELOPMENTS not designed to hinder national or interna- non-MTCR transshipers to adhere to the tional space programs unless they contrib- MTCR Guidelines and Annex, and to give ute to delivery systems for weapons of mass them “practical assistance” to implement destruction. However, the United States will transshipment controls on missile technol- 7/96 “retain a strong presumption of denial ogy. The member states agreed on steps that The United States hosted an MTCR Seminar against exports of complete SLVs or other could be taken to improve the regime’s ef- on Transshipment Issues in Washington, Category I components.” In addition, the fectiveness in restricting missile proliferation D.C. The seminar was attended by foreign United States will continue its policy of “not in South Asia and the Persian Gulf. In addi- policymakers and specialists from 12 MTCR supporting the development or acquisition tion, the partners agreed to increase the member states and seven non-MTCR coun- of SLV systems in non-MTCR states.” The transparency of the regime’s objectives and tries. During the seminar, a “productive ex- United States “will not encourage new SLV activities, and to pursue dialogues with non- change of ideas on how to impede programs” in MTCR member states which MTCR countries to encourage their volun- proliferators’ misuse of transshipment” took raise questions from a proliferation and eco- tary adherence to the regime’s guidelines. place. The participants identified a number nomic standpoint, “but will consider the White House Press Release, http:// of issues for potential future deliberation. transfer of MTCR-controlled items to these library.whitehouse.gov, 11/12/96 (6674). White House Press Release, http:// countries.” The United States could consider library.whitehouse.gov, 11/12/96 (6674). extra safeguards for such exports “where ap- propriate.” According to the fact sheet, any 9/96 exports would continue to be subject to the U.S. officials said Ukraine’s inventory of non-transfer measures included in the Stra- Scud-B missiles prohibits a needed U.S. en- tegic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and

156 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 Missile Developments

in FBIS-WEU-96-185, 9/22/96 (6532). F. NORTH KOREA WITH: Weckbach-Mara, Bild Am Sonntag (Hamburg), NETHERLANDS 8/25/96, pp. 2-3; in FBIS-WEU-96-167, 8/25/ Iran, 149 96 (6532). Iran and United States, 149

NORTH KOREA NORTH KOREA WITH PAKISTAN AND NETHERLANDS WITH: TAIWAN Germany, Italy, Turkey, and United 3/96 States, 143 Two hundred barrels of ammonium perchlo- INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS rate shipped from North Korea were detained 9/25/96 in Taiwan en route to Pakistan’s Space and South Korea’s Unification Ministry issued a Upper Atmosphere Commission NORTH ATLANTIC statement saying that North Korea produces (SUPARCO). Bruce Gilley, Far Eastern Economic Review, 10/ TREATY ORGANIZATION approximately 100 Scud-B and -C ballistic 3/96, p. 20 (6675). missiles annually, and has exported approxi- mately 400, primarily to the Middle East. NORTH KOREA WITH SYRIA According to the statement, between 1980 9/12/96 NATO WITH RUSSIA and 1993, arms exports accounted for ap- proximately 30 percent ($20.4 billion) of all Customs officials seized 18 cargo containers 7/96 North Korean exports, and Scud sales are that had arrived at Hong Kong’s Kwai Chung In an interview with Denmark’s Berlingske now about $500 million annually. The minis- Container Terminal on 8/22/96 from North Weekendavisen, Danish Defense Minister try also said North Korea has exported mis- Korea, and which were bound for Syria. On Hans Haekkerup said NATO and Russia sile production facilities and technology to 9/16/96, a search of the containers’ contents could counter the threat posed by unpre- Syria and Iran. found howitzer guns and spare parts. The dictable countries that might possess “mis- Reuter, 9/25/96 (6677). Iran Brief reported that North Korea intended sile technology, biological warfare materiel, to have the guns’ optics upgraded at a and a nuclear capability” by “jointly build- 10/16/96* French-built munitions plant in Syria and re- ing up a missile defense system.” Haekkerup Japanese news agency, Jiji, and NHK televi- turned to North Korea, as an offset for past added that NATO could “certainly use some sion reported that North Korea is planning deliveries of Scud-C missiles. Conventional of the high-tech items” that Russia pro- to test-launch a 1,000 km-range No-dong-1 weapons transfers between North Korea and duces. missile into the Sea of Japan. Clues that a Syria are not illegal, but countries shipping Gennadi Kulbitsky, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 9/22/96; weaponry through Hong Kong must notify in FBIS-WEU-96-185, 9/22/96 (6532). Jens test-launch was imminent were provided by Maigard, Berlingske Weekendavisen a U.S. satellite which tracked the movement the Trade Department. The Trade Depart- (Copenhagen), 7/19/96-7/25/96, p. 6; in FBIS- of a No-dong-1 launch platform from an as- ment had no notice documentation. Customs WEU-96-167, 7/25/96 (6532). sembly plant to a position on the country’s has not yet opened all of the containers, and east coast. Defense officials in Japan noted it is “not impossible” that the remaining con- 8/25/96 that all preparations for the launch have been tainers may contain “parts for Scud missiles.” German Defense Minister Volker Ruehe was made, including the prepositioning of North Ng Kang-Chung and John Flint, South China Sun- quoted in Germany’s Bild Am Sonntag as day Morning Post (Hong Kong), 9/15/96, p. 1; Korean vessels in the Sea of Japan to moni- FBIS-CHI-96-180 (6676). Glenn Schloss and saying that NATO-Russian cooperation in tor the missile in its terminal phase. Although Simon Beck, South China Morning Post (Hong the future could include the “development similar indications were picked up in 7/96 Kong), 9/17/96, p. 3; in FBIS-CHI-96-181 (6676). of a joint defense system against new without an ensuing launch, the U.S. re- Iran Brief, 10/1/96, p. 6. Jane’s Defence Weekly, threats—against long-range missiles carry- 10/2/96, p. 15 (6676). Glen Schloss and Stella sponded to these new developments by Lee, South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), 9/ ing weapons of mass destruction, for in- sending an RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft 16/96, p. 3; in FBIS-CHI-96-180 (6676). stance.” Ruehe said this system would be from Kadena Air Base in Okinawa to monitor directed against “blackmailing attempts and the region. The No-dong-1 has been under nuclear terrorism from the South—threats development since 1993, and “some experts from Islamic fundamentalism, for example.” believe that it will be deployed in the coming NORWAY According to Ruehe, this would demonstrate months.” that NATO expansion was not directed Reuter, 10/16/96 (6561). Nicholas D. Kristof, against Russia, and there was an opportu- New York Times, 10/22/96, p. A11 (6561). nity to establish a “special partnership” be- NORWAY WITH RUSSIA, UKRAINE, AND tween the alliance and Russia. UNITED STATES Gennadi Kulbitsky, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 9/22/96;

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 157 Missile Developments

7/22/96* China, 141 in FBIS-SOV-96-145, 7/25/96 (6600). The U.S. firm Space Systems/Loral of Cali- China and India, 141 fornia has placed an order with the joint Nor- North Korea and Taiwan, 157 8/14/96 wegian-Russian-Ukrainian-U.S. Sea Launch Mikhail Gerasov, deputy director of Co. for five unspecified satellite launches to Moscow’s USA-Canada Institute, said that be made between late 1998 and 2001. The production of Russia’s new Topol-M ICBM companies did not release financial details RUSSIA had not yet begun, making its deployment in of the contract. The Boeing-led Sea Launch 1997 doubtful. According to officials in Mos- venture has now secured orders for 15 cow, a lack of funding will probably delay launches, including 10 from Hughes Space indefinitely Russia’s deployment of the and Communications. Sea Launch intends INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS Topol-M, despite several successful tests of the missile. The Russian Defense Ministry to use Ukrainian Zenit rockets to launch sat- 7/15/96 ellites from a converted offshore oil platform. had planned to operationalize 10 solid-fuel Two strategic nuclear-powered submarines The platform will be located in the Pacific Topol-M ICBMs by the end of 1997. Accord- from Russia’s Northern Fleet test launched Ocean, and the first launch is scheduled to ing to Gerasov, Russia’s 1996 defense bud- RSM-40 (SS-N-8 “Sawfly”) and RSM-54 (SS- take place in 6/98. Sea Launch’s first pay- get did not include funds for Topol-M N-23 “Skiff”) SLBMs. The missiles were load will be a HS-702 model satellite, Hughes’ production and there was a two-year delay launched from the Barents Sea. The warheads Galaxy 11 communications satellite. In late 8/ in fulfilling the missile program. Some U.S. hit their pre-designated targets in the Pacific 96, Sea Launch is scheduled to start build- Congressmen and officials from the U.S. De- Ocean and on the Kamchatka peninsula. ing facilities at its home port. This project is partment of Defense believe the Topol-M According to sources at the Russian De- expected to cost $20 million and reach program—an enhanced version of the road- fense Ministry, the missiles were taken out completion by 10/97. The plan entails: remod- mobile SS-25 ICBM—is evidence that Rus- of long-term storage for the exercise. sia is hedging on the issue of START II eling existing buildings to be used as offices, Andrey Yurkin, Itar-Tass World Service (Mos- storage, and warehouse space; building two cow), 7/15/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-137, 7/15/96 ratification, which the Russian parliament is new structures for processing spacecraft; (6489). Vasiliy Belousov, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 7/ currently considering. Russian national se- and modifying a 333 m-long pier “to accom- 15/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-137, 7/15/96 (6489). curity advisor Aleksandr Lebed and others modate the Sea Launch command vessel ship in the Russian government support the and launch platform.” On 7/26/96, the United 7/25/96 Topol-M program. Russian officials view re- States and Ukraine signed an agreement to The Russian Defense Ministry announced tention of a credible nuclear force as guaran- launch satellites on board Ukrainian Zenit that Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces (SRF) teeing continued status as a superpower, SLVs. The parties signed two contracts: the launched an ICBM from the Plesetsk testing particularly when Moscow cannot afford to “Global Launch” program will involve the range near Arkhangelsk on 7/25/96. The mis- acquire new advanced conventional weap- launch of 36 communication satellites on sile hit its target with “a high degree of preci- ons. Since 12/94, the Topol-M has been tested board three Zenit SLVs, and the “Sea sion.” The test was part of Russia’s program successfully on three occasions from the Launch” program will begin operation in to develop the new Topol-M ICBM. General Mirny testing grounds at Arkhangelsk in 1998. Igor Sergeyev, SRF commander-in-chief, said northern Russia, most recently on 7/25/96. Space News, 7/22/96-7/28/96, p. 16 (6496). the project was initiated in 1993 and its first Although the Russian Defense Ministry in- Space News, 8/12/96-8/18/96, p.2 (6496). Unian stage was completed in 1995. According to tended to conduct 20 test launches of the (Kiev), 7/27/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-146, 7/27/96 Sergeyev, the project was in its final stages Topol-M over the past two years, officials (6465). and the trials had been a success. Russian said funding problems had slowed the test- Deputy Defense Minister Andrey Kokoshin ing program. said the launch demonstrated that enterprises Pyotr Yudin, Defense News, 8/19/96, pp. 1, 18 of the military industrial complex could co- (6605). Susanne M. Schafer, Washington Times, PAKISTAN 8/25/96, p. A7 (6605). operate effectively and that they will initiate serial production of the new missile. Kokoshin 8/22/96* said a government resolution had laid the Russian President Boris Yeltsin issued a de- groundwork for this cooperation to ensure PAKISTAN WITH: cree titled, “On Monitoring the Export From that the “necessary material basis” existed the Russian Federation of Equipment, Mate- Afghanistan, 138 for the missile to be produced. Kokoshin said rials, and Technologies Used in the Creation the missile would form the “nucleus of of Missile Weapons.” The decree established Russia’s strategic missile troops in the fore- an export-control list for equipment, materi- seeable future.” The test was the third launch als, and technologies that can be used in the of the Topol-M despite funding problems. Anatoliy Yurkin, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 7/25/96; development and production of missiles. The

158 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 Missile Developments list is subject to alteration or adjustment. During a training exercise of the Northern lished jointly by the Ministry of the Economy Requests to export items included on the list Fleet, Russia’s naval strategic nuclear forces and the Ministry of Atomic Energy to create will need to be approved by the Russian successfully tested an SLBM from a strate- a complex in Russia “for the extraction and government after examination by experts. gic guided missile submarine under the com- production” of rare metals, including beryl- Yeltsin directed the government “to bring mand of Captain First Class Anatoliy lium, lithium, niobium, and tantalum. Beryl- normative acts into line with this edict” fol- Yevtodyev. The exercise was conducted un- lium is used in the production of guidance lowing Moscow’s adherence to the “Agree- der the leadership of the Russian defense systems for rockets and spacecraft, ceram- ment on the Nonproliferation of Space Rocket minister, and the command to launch the ics in the electronics industry, light alloys Technologies” and “with a view to comply- SLBM was transmitted via military satellite for aerospace equipment, and nuclear muni- ing with Russia’s obligations on the non- from Moscow. The test was considered a tions. After the dissolution of the Soviet proliferation of rocket systems” capable of “presidential launch” because the “nuclear Union, the production facilities for many of delivering WMD. briefcase” was used in the command-and- these rare metals were located outside Rus- Rossiyskiye Vesti (Moscow), 8/22/96, p. 1; in FBIS- control process. sia in Estonia, Kazakstan, Ukraine, and SOV-96-164, 8/22/96 (6548). Vladimir Gundarov, Krasnaya Zvezda (Moscow), Uzbekistan. The objective of the LIBTON 10/4/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-194, 10/4/96 (6601). program is to establish an autonomous pro- 8/23/96 duction complex for these rare metals in Rus- General Eugene Habiger, commander-in-chief 10/3/96 sia based on the Chita mining and of the U.S. Strategic Command, said Russia’s Russia launched an RS-12M Topol-class enrichment combine. Prime Minister Viktor nuclear force will fall to START II levels by ICBM from the Plesetsk testing range. The Chernomyrdin approved the program, which 2005, regardless of Russian intentions, be- missile successfully hit its target. General will run through 2012 at a cost of R6.6 tril- cause of a lack of funds to pay for modern- Igor Sergeyev said problems in the armed lion. The Russian federal exchequer and the ization. Habiger said Russia is currently forces had not interfered with the SRF’s abil- Ministry of Atomic Energy will each fund 20 working on four nuclear systems, but only ity to preserve “their combat capacity at a percent of the program; the Chita Oblast the work on a single-warhead SS-27 ICBM is proper level” and to carry out their duties. Administration will fund 10 percent of the proceeding smoothly. Without providing Sergeyev said that if sufficient funding were program, and the remaining 50 percent will details, Habiger said Russian projects to de- made available, the RS-12M and the updated be funded through commercial investment. velop a submarine-launched nuclear missile, Topol-M ICBM could guarantee the secu- Vladimir Kucherenko, Rossiyskaya gazeta (Mos- a nuclear-missile-firing submarine, and a rity of Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrent cow), 10/4/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-194, 10/4/96 nuclear armed cruise missile were among the “at the beginning of the next century.” Rus- (6614). less successful projects. He said that even if sia also test launched two 3,000 km-range these projects were successful, the Russians nuclear-capable air-launched cruise missiles 10/16/96* would not have the capability, the money, or (ALCM). According to Major General Vasiliy The SRF prepared a solid-fuel Start-1 SLV to the resources “to bring up their force struc- Maloshitskiy, deputy head of the long-range launch the first satellite from the new ture... that’s going to just run out of shelf life air force’s combat training department, both Svobodny cosmodrome in the Far Eastern or capability.” ALCMs hit their targets. The missile Amur region of Russia. The rocket is sched- Jim Adams, Reuters, 8/23/96 (6488). Pyotr Yudin, launches were part of Redut-96, a series of uled to place the Zeya small demonstration Defense News, 8/19/96, pp. 1, 18 (6605). Susanne exercises designed to review the combat ca- satellite into orbit in 12/96. Moscow’s Insti- M. Schafer, Washington Times, 8/25/96, p. A7 tute of Thermal Technology converted an (6605). pabilities of all kinds of troops, fleets, and military districts, and to “practice manage- SS-25 “Sickle” ICBM to produce the Start-1 10/96 ment of the Russian Armed Forces.” Accord- SLV, which also incorporates hardware from the SS-20 ballistic missile. STC Complex is The Russian Navy was scheduled to launch ing to Maloshitskiy, Russian Prime Minister marketing four- and five-stage versions of its first satellite on board the Shtil booster. Viktor Chernomyrdin observed the exercises the Start-1 SLV. The Shtil is a converted SS-N-23 “Skiff” from the missile-launch control center at the general headquarters of the Russian Armed Flight International, 10/16/96-10/22/96, p. 25 SLBM. The Skiff became operational in 1986. (6588). The Shtil was scheduled to launch the 70 kg Forces. Vladimir Gundarov, Krasnaya Zvezda (Moscow), Kompas research satellite into a 400 km, cir- 10/4/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-194, 10/4/96 (6601). 10/28/96* cular, 78 degree inclination orbit from a Andrey Galkin, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 10/3/96; in The Moscow-based firm Granit, which pro- Northern Fleet nuclear submarine located in FBIS-SOV-96-194, 10/3/96 (6601). Sergey duces anti-aircraft missile systems and elec- the Barents Sea. In 6/95, the Shtil launched a Ostanin, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 10/3/96; in FBIS- SOV-96-194, 10/3/96 (6601). tronics, was selected to pioneer a Russian 105 kg German re-entry capsule during a sub- effort to set up multinational arms produc- orbital flight. tion and export firms. Granit will receive a Flight International, 7/3/96-7/9/96, p. 21 (6536). 10/3/96 The Russian Government Presidium consid- license allowing it to export arms indepen- ered the LIBTON program, which was estab- dently of Rosvoorouzhenie, Russia’s state- 10/2/96 run arms export agency. At present,

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 159 Missile Developments

Rosvoorouzhenie handles 90 percent of solid-fuel, mobile, short-range ballistic mis- Zvezda-Strela’s X-31A has been used by the Russia’s arms exports, which were worth $2.7 sile. Because the SS-21 has an estimated Russian Air Force since 1988. In 5/95, billion in 1995. According to Russian Prime range of 150 km and a maximum payload ca- McDonnell Douglas was awarded a $4.7 mil- Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, the Russian pability of 482 kg, it falls below the MTCR’s lion contract to assess four different aerial government is willing to spend R50 billion 300 km and 500 kg parameters. No country in targets with an option to acquire up to 20. ($9.2 million) to help Granit through the tran- Southeast Asia currently possesses SSMs, According to John Reilly, manager of the sition process. Chernomyrdin said Granit was even short-range types like the SS-21. The MA-31 program, Russian participants re- a perfect choice for the “core of a joint ven- unpublicized 1993 meeting between defense ceived approximately $1.7 million of the total ture” because it imports most of the spare officials from Russia and Singapore was the $4.7 million. The U.S. Navy needs a super- parts that it uses from neighboring CIS coun- first of its kind between the countries be- sonic sea-skimming missile to test ship- tries. According to Rosvoorouzhenie data, cause of the latter’s staunch anti-communism based missile defense systems. According Granit will be one of 16 Russian firms licensed and its alignment with the United States dur- to Reilly, the X-31A possessed the desired to export arms if the project proceeds. Along ing the . Singapore’s defense min- capabilities. Reilly said this unprecedented with Moscow-based MiG aircraft manufac- istry did not respond to inquiries about project began in 1993 and constituted the turer VPK MAPO, Granit will be the second contacts with Moscow. Russia has attempted first time this type of military-industrial co- Russian firm to develop, manufacture, and to establish new markets for its defense prod- operation had taken place between the export its own products. According to crit- ucts in Southeast Asia since the late 1980s. United States and Russia. ics in Russia and other CIS countries, lack of Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/4/96, p. 3 (6655). Defense News, 10/7/96-10/13/96, p. 21 (6689). funding is the primary obstacle to Moscow’s plan to establish new defense giants. RUSSIA WITH UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 10/23/96* Pyotr Yudin, Defense News, 10/28/96-11/3/96, Two U.S. firms have selected Russia’s NK- p. 4 (6654). 7/24/96* 33 liquid-oxygen/kerosene engine to power The UAE purchased the 300 mm-caliber re-usable SLVs. Kistler Aerospace of RUSSIA WITH: Smerch multiple launch rocket system from Kirkland, Washington, wants to use the NK- Australia and Thailand, 138 Russia. According to Middle Eastern diplo- 33 in its K-1 re-usable SLV, while Kelly Space Belarus, 138 matic sources in Moscow, the UAE pur- and Technology of San Bernardino, Califor- Brazil and United States, 139 chased one Smerch battery, which includes nia, wants to use the engine in its Eclipse Bulgaria and United States, 140 the Vivariy automated fire-control system, six Astroliner sub-orbital spaceplane. The U.S. firm Aerojet is modifying and marketing the China and Ukraine, 141 9T234-2 loader- transporter vehicles, and six NK-33, which was developed originally to Cyprus, United Kingdom, and United 9A52-5 transloader vehicles with 12-tube launchers. The UAE made an undisclosed power Russia’s N1 Moon rocket. States, 142 Tim Furniss, Flight International, 10/23/96-10/ payment to Russia and is awaiting delivery Egypt, 142 29/96, p. 23 (6599). from the Splav manufacturing plant in Tula. Finland, 143 Although Russia offered the full range of France, 143 rockets for the Smerch system, the UAE has India, 148 yet to choose a specific type of projectile. SINGAPORE Iran, 149 The contract does not specify where UAE NATO, 157 personnel will be trained to operate the Norway, Ukraine, and United Smerch system, but this will probably take States, 157 place in Russia. SINGAPORE WITH: Jane’s Defence Weekly, 7/24/96, p. 3 (6577). Russia, 160 RUSSIA WITH SINGAPORE RUSSIA WITH UNITED STATES 9/4/96* According to regionally based intelligence 10/7/96* sources, defense officials from Singapore are The U.S. firm McDonnell Douglas success- SLOVAKIA interested in purchasing Russia’s S-300 (SA- fully conducted the first test launch and pow- 10 “Grumble”) air-defense system. The S-300 ered flight of an MA-31 aerial target at the is a ground-based, solid-fuel, short-range U.S. Naval Air Warfare Center’s test ground theater defense missile system comparable at Point Mugu, California. Representatives SLOVAKIA WITH: to the U.S. Patriot. In early 1993, Russia from McDonnell Douglas, the U.S. Navy, and India, 148 briefed Singapore on the OTR-21/9M79 the Russian missile manufacturer Zvezda- Tochka (SS-21 “Scarab”) surface-to-surface Strela modified an X-31A supersonic anti- missile (SSM). The single warhead SS-21 is a ship/anti-radar missile to create the MA-31.

160 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 Missile Developments

14/93, Chugan Maegyong reported that a three-stage rocket would be operational by SOUTH KOREA 1999. A 10/11/95 article, also in Chugan TAIWAN Maeyong, identifies the program’s ultimate goal: to launch of a 500-700 kg payload into a 600-800 km orbit by 2009. INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS FBIS Special Memorandum: ROK Rocket De- INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS velopment, 6/5/96 (6574). 6/5/96* 9/11/96* The 1/96 issue of Kukbang Kwa Kisul re- 10/2/96* Taiwanese military officials disclosed the ported that South Korea’s accession to the army’s plan to test its first surface-to-sur- South Korea has developed a dry-tuned gy- MTCR would not adversely affect its export face missile by the end of the year. Military roscope (DTG), which will “soon be com- of missile technology, and would in fact boost sources say that the “Sky Halberd” has been mercialized.” The Korea Institute for Defense its access to advanced technologies, that developed so that Taiwan’s military forces Analysis and the Special Automatic Control could be “grafted” to indigenous projects. will have first-strike capabilities. The program Research Center of Seoul National Univer- On 4/17/96, a magazine entitled Chugan is based on the Model-2 “Sky Bow” missile. sity jointly designed and assembled the gy- Maeyong editorialized that the U.S.-ROK Sources estimate the missile’s range to be roscope; Daewoo Heavy Industries (South memorandum on missile control, which pro- approximately 300 km. The Chungshan In- Korea) processed its constituent parts, and hibits South Korea from developing missiles stitute of Science and Technology produces the Special Automatic Control Research with ranges beyond 180 km, is a “stumbling the missile. The guidance system can use Center tested it. The gyroscope operates at block” to South Korean aerospace advances. Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, 14,000 revolutions per minute, has a 5 cm Currently, South Korea is developing a two- but to take advantage of the GPS, Taiwan diameter, and a 5 cm height. Only seven coun- stage rocket. The first stage is 3.57 m in length will need access to a satellite. tries have produced such gyroscopes, and and weighs 0.71 tons, while its second stage Lu Chao-Lung, Chung-Kuo Shih-Pao (Taipei), transfer of the technology is generally re- measures 7.47 m and weighs 1.22 tons. Fuel 9/11/96, p. 1; in FBIS-CHI-96-180 (6642). stricted. Professors from Seoul National Uni- accounts for 396 kg of the first stage and 580 versity that participated in the DTG’s kg of the second, and 150 kg comprises the TAIWAN WITH: development are: Yi Chang-kyu, the project payload. The first stage burns for 6.7 sec- North Korea and Pakistan, 157 chair (Electronic Engineering department) , onds with an average of 23.4 tons of thrust. Yi Tong-nyon (Material Engineering depart- At 7 seconds the stages separate and the ment), Kim Yong-hyop (Aerospace depart- TAIWAN WITH UNITED STATES second stage burns for 20.2 seconds with ment), and Chong Hyon-kyo (Electric 8/22/96* 8.7 tons of thrust. At 60 seconds, approxi- Engineering department). Yi said that next According to Taiwanese military sources, mately 73.4 km in altitude, the nose faring they “will develop an ultra-mini gyroscope U.S.-built Patriot missiles will be a crucial part separates. The rocket reaches maximum ve- with a diameter and height of less than 1 cm.” of Taiwan’s missile defenses. By 10/96, the locity in 28.2 seconds. The Korea Aerospace Mael Kyongje Sinmun (Seoul), 10/2/96, p. 16; in United States will deliver three Patriot sys- Research Institute (KARI) manages the two- FBIS-EAS-96-194 (6681). tems, and from 2/97 until 6/98, they will be stage program, particularly engine develop- deployed by the Taiwanese Army’s Aviation ment, while a number of agencies and firms Logistics Department. The General Staff contribute to specific aspects of the project, Headquarters is working on the purchase of including: the Korea Research Institute of SYRIA applicable mobile equipment from the United Standards and Science (payload design), the States that would include an integrated Agency for Defense Development (launch phased-array radar capability to upgrade the equipment and test facilities), Korea Explo- present Patriot system. To date, the United sives (engines), Samsung Aerospace, SYRIA WITH: States has not agreed to sell this technol- Hankook Tire Mfg., Korea Fiber Glass (com- Iran, Israel, and Lebanon, 149 ogy. posite and heat- resistant materials), Doowon Israel, 153 Chung-Kuo Shih-Pao (Taiwan), 8/22/96, p. 1; in Heavy Industries (airframe and launcher), North Korea, 157 FBIS-CHI-96-165 (6644). Ace Antenna (communications), Danam Ind. (payload electronics), and Seoul National THAILAND WITH: University (research). Cho Kwang-nae, chief of KARI’s medium-rocket group, indicated Australia and Russia, 138 in the 4/17/96 Chugan Maegyong article that a three-stage follow-on to the two-stage rocket would not be difficult. As early as 4/

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 161 Missile Developments

siles were fired separately at a second tar- UKRAINE WITH UNITED STATES get. The first missile hit the target at a range 7/96 TURKEY of 40 km. When the target caught fire and The U.S. firm Rockwell and Ukraine’s NPO began to fall, the second missile completely Yuzhnoye signed an agreement to provide destroyed it. According to Stetsenko, the air- launch services on board the three-stage defense missiles and radar installations were Tsyklon SLV. The Tsyklon was developed TURKEY WITH: manufactured in Ukraine. The missile targets from the first and second stages of the SS-9 used during the exercise had small radar sig- Israel, 153 ICBM, with a third stage added specifically natures and flew at a low altitude. The air- Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and United to launch satellites. The Space Systems Di- defense personnel “demonstrated good States, 143 vision of Rockwell will provide sales, mar- combat proficiency and teamwork” during Malaysia, 156 keting, and payload integration for the rocket. the exercises and the weapon systems “op- The Tsyklon can launch 2,000 kg payloads erated in stable fashion.” A Buk air-defense “at an inclination of 82.5 degrees to a circu- TURKEY WITH UNITED STATES system was also scheduled to be tested, but lar orbital altitude of 1,500 km,” or payloads 11/6/96* Stetsenko said this was postponed because weighing up to 3,600 kg “with a launch incli- Turkey will purchase 72 Army Tactical Mis- enough material had been collected for analy- nation of 73.5 degrees to an altitude of 200 sile System (ATACMS) missiles worth $48 sis. According to Stetsenko, the exercise km.” According to Flight International, the million from the U.S. firm Lockheed Martin demonstrated that live firings of SAM sys- Tsyklon is capable of launching 1,360 kg pay- Vought Systems. The U.S. Congress ap- tems could be conducted in Ukraine. In ad- loads into low- or medium-Earth orbits. Rob- proved the transaction earlier in 1996; this is dition, the exercises proved the effectiveness ert Minor, president of Rockwell’s Space the first sale of ATACMS outside the United of Ukraine’s air-defense systems and the Systems Division, said the Tsyklon has an States. Lockheed Martin will deliver all the need to develop an air-defense firing range excellent reliability record. The SLV has a 97 missiles to Turkey by 4/98. Turkey already in Crimea. Stetsenko added that past test fir- percent success rate. Minor added that the has 12 Multiple Launch Rocket System ings of the S-300 and S-125 systems only agreement with Yuzhnoye was “vital for pos- (MLRS) launchers, which can be used to occurred in Kazakstan. The next exercises at sible future cooperation.” Tsyklon is signifi- launch ATACMS missiles. Turkey is ex- the State Firing Range in Crimea are sched- cantly larger than both versions of the pected to eventually purchase up to 120 uled for fall 1996. During these exercises, “all Lockheed Martin Launch Vehicle and Orbital ATACMS missiles at a cost of $130 million. of the types of weaponry in the PPO Forces Sciences’ Pegasus and Taurus vehicles. Flight International, 11/6/96-11/12/96, p. 17 are planned to be used.” The fall 1996 drills Rockwell officials said they do not plan to (6649). will focus on “ensuring the fulfillment of the request permission to launch the Tsyklon in chief mission of the troops—covering the the United States. According to the officials, entire territory of the nation.” The State Fir- Rockwell is satisfied with launching the ing Range will be equipped with “everything UKRAINE rocket from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in necessary” in the near future. In response to Kazakstan and the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in a question regarding Ukraine’s agreement to northern Russia. use practice ranges in Russia, Stetsenko said Bruce A. Smith, Aviation Week & Space Technol- the Ukrainians had been denied fuel. Accord- ogy, 7/29/96, p. 19 (6671). Flight International, INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS ing to Stetsenko, lack of fuel made it expen- 7/31/96-8/6/96, p. 5 (6671). Ben Iannotta, Space 7/2/96-7/3/96 sive to conduct live firings outside Ukraine. News, 8/5/96-8/11/96, pp. 10-11 (6671). The SAM and radiotechnical troops of Stetsenko said that in addition to assembling Ukraine’s Air Defense (PPO) Forces con- and testing S-125 and S-300 systems, a Ukrai- 7/26/96 ducted the first test firings of S-300 and S- nian plant is “working on a new missile.” U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense Harold 125 air-defense systems in Ukraine at the Ruslan Tkachuk, Narodna Armiya (Kiev), 7/9/ Smith told a press conference in State Aviation Firing Range in Crimea. An S- 96, p. 1; in FBIS-UMA-96-158-S, 7/9/96 (6693). Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine, that the United 300 system destroyed a target over the Black Intelnews (Kiev), 7/8/96; in FBIS-TAC-96-008, States was not in favor of Ukraine’s sugges- 7/8/96 (6693). Sea, which had traveled between 80 and 85 tion to convert SS-24 ICBMs into SLVs. Smith km at an altitude of 800 meters and a speed said that the ICBMs are “too expensive to UKRAINE WITH: of 900 km/h. The S-300 intercepted the target maintain” and should be destroyed. Smith at a range of 67 km. According to Lieutenant Africa, 138 also said that four U.S. firms were currently General Oleksandr Stetsenko, Ukraine’s China and Russia, 141 developing cost-effective ways to destroy deputy minister of defense and commander Germany, 143 these ICBMs. He added that the United States of the PPO Forces, the S-300 was expected MTCR, 156 would welcome a Ukrainian decision to de- to have a maximum interception range of 50 Norway, Russia, and United States, 157 stroy the ICBMs and would be willing to pro- km. During the second test, two S-125 mis- vide assistance for Kiev to do this. According

162 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 Missile Developments to Stanislav Konyukhov, chief designer at identify the basis for its conclusions, and Kingdom, 142 Ukraine’s Pivdenmash, the optimum method did not explore worst-case scenarios for fu- Egypt, 142 to recycle SS-24 ICBMs is to convert them ture missile developments among foreign Germany, 144 into SLVs. Konyukhov added that Ukraine nations.” According to the GAO, the NIE’s Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Turkey, had not considered destroying its SS-24 level of certainty was exaggerated, “based 143 ICBMs. on the caveats and the intelligence gaps Greece, 144 Uniar (Kiev), 7/27/96; in FBIS-SOV-96-146, 7/ noted in NIE 95-19.” According to the GAO, 27/96 (6465). the NIE did not identify its “critical assump- Iran and North Korea, 149 tions.” Defense analysts define critical as- Israel, 153 sumptions as “debatable premises” used to Japan, 155 UNITED ARAB EMIR- support arguments and the validity of as- Kuwait, 155 sessments. The GAO said five assumptions MTCR, 156 ATES were incorrectly presented as “fact-based Norway, Russia, and Ukraine, 157 judgments.” Among them was the NIE’s as- Russia, 160 sertion that the MTCR will “significantly Taiwan, 161 limit” international missile sales and no na- Turkey, 162 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES WITH: tion that possesses ICBMs will sell them. Ukraine, 162 Russia, 160 The GAO contested the NIE’s basis for con- cluding that “three unidentified countries” will not attempt to produce long-range bal- listic missiles and that it takes five years of WASSENAAR UNITED KINGDOM flight testing to develop an ICBM. The GAO identified the NIE’s conclusion that a ARRANGEMENT seaborne cruise missile attack against the United States was feasible but not very likely UNITED KINGDOM WITH: as another unsupported premise. Congress- 7/12/96 Cyprus, Russia, and United States, 142 man Floyd D. Spence, chairman of the House National Security Committee, requested the Representatives from over 30 nations con- Israel, 153 GAO report and said it questioned the Clinton cluded negotiations on the Wassenaar agree- MTCR, 156 administration’s “sanguine attitude” regard- ment to control the trade in conventional ing the increasing missile threat to the U.S. weapons and dual-use technology. The Congressman Curt Weldon said the GAO agreement is designed to prevent weapons UNITED STATES report supported the Republican assertion from reaching countries like Iran and Libya that the administration had “politicized the where they could prove destabilizing. In 12/ intelligence process.” However, the GAO did 95, 28 countries agreed on an outline for this not consider whether the NIE was manipu- agreement to replace the Coordinating Com- lated to support the Clinton administration’s mittee on Multilateral Export Controls INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS missile defense policy. The current defense (COCOM), which was created by the West 9/12/96 authorization bill, which is expected to be during the Cold War to prevent the transfer An unclassified report published by the U.S. enacted soon, requires that an independent of arms and military technology to Commu- General Accounting Office (GAO) stated that intelligence review be conducted to investi- nist countries. According to a U.S. official, National Intelligence Estimate 95-19 (NIE 95- gate the objectivity of the NIE’s findings. the new system would become mandatory 19)—which concluded that the United States The CIA did not cooperate with the GAO before the end of 1996, with voluntary infor- will not be threatened by a new ballistic mis- and made no remarks about the report. mation exchange beginning on 9/1/96. sile for the next 15 years—was flawed. NIE Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 9/12/96, p. A7 New York Times, 7/13/96, p. 2 (6547). 95-19 reported that “no country other than (6685). the major declared nuclear powers will de- velop or otherwise acquire a ballistic missile UNITED STATES WITH: in the next 15 years that could threaten the Australia, 138 contiguous 48 states or Canada.” The Con- Brazil, 140 gressional report stated that NIE 95-19’s con- Brazil and Russia, 139 clusion “was worded with clear, 100 percent Bulgaria and Russia, 140 accuracy.” However, the GAO said NIE 95- China, 142 19 “failed to give clear judgments, did not Cyprus, Russia, and United

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1997 163