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Home , Aster (missile family), Atlas Cheetah, Battle of Knin, Boris Saltykov, Dobrovolsk, Harpoon (missile)

Developments BALLISTIC, , AND SYSTEMS: TRADE AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS, JULY-OCTOBER 1995

CONTENTS

OVERVIEW, 158 , 167 Internal Developments, 162 Internal Developments, 165 , 167 AFGHANISTAN with with Internal Developments, 160 , 160 , 165 with Internal Developments, 167 , Germany, , , 165 , 160 with Russia, and U.S., 163 CZECH REPUBLIC and U.S., 160 ARGENTINA Germany, 164 with Brazil, 163, 164 with , , and PRC, 164 Belarus, NATO, Russia, and , , , Brazil, 160 MTCR, 181 , 161 and U.S., 164 Russia, 164 AUSTRALIA France, Italy, and United Ukraine, 164 Internal Developments, 160 Kingdom, 166 United States, 164 with with France, Italy, and U.S., 166 Azores and Slovakia, 161 Germany and U.S., 160 BRUNEI India, 167 Russia, 160 Internal Developments, 164 , 168 Russia and , 161 with and U.S., 168 CANADA Kuwait, 166 MTCR, 181 AZORES with PRC, 166 Netherlands and NATO, 168 with Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Spain, 166 Netherlands, NATO, and Ecuador and Slovakia, 161 and U.S., 164 United States, 166 U.S., 168 BAHRAIN Netherlands and U.S., 168 EUROPEAN UNION Internal Developments, 161 with Russia, 168 Internal Developments, 166 Mauritius, 164 , 168 BELARUS , 165 FRANCE United States, 168 with with Czech Republic, NATO, COMMONWEALTH OF HUNGARY Brazil, 163 Russia, and Ukraine, 161 INDEPENDENT STATES with CIS, , and , 161 (CIS) , 168 U.S., 165 Russia, 161 with Iraq, 166 INDIA United States, 162 France, South Africa, and Germany, Italy, and United Internal Developments, 169 U.S., 165 Kingdom, 166 with with Germany, Italy, and Brazil, Israel, and PRC, 164 Russia and , 162 Internal Developments, 165 U.S., 166 Germany, 167 Iran and Russia, 162 with Italy, 167 Israel, 171 Russia, 165 Kuwait, 167 MTCR, 181 Pakistan and U.S., 172

156 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments

PRC, 172 KAZAKHSTAN Germany, Netherlands, and RUSSIA Russia, 172 with U.S., 168 Internal Developments, 189 United Kingdom, 172 Russia and Ukraine, 180 with United States, 172 Australia, 160 KUWAIT Internal Developments, 182 Australia and Sweden, 161 IRAN with with Belarus, 161 Internal Developments, 173 Egypt, 166 Iran, 173 Belarus, Czech Republic, with France, 167 Iran and , 173 NATO, and Ukraine, 161 Belarus, 161 Russia, 180 PRC, 183 Bosnia and Iran, 162 Bosnia and Russia, 162 United States, 180 Russia, 184 Bosnia and Serbia, 162 Iraq and , 173 South Korea, 184 Brazil, 163, 164 Libya, 173 United States, 184 Internal Developments, 180 Colombia, 165 North Korea, 173 with NORWAY Croatia, 165 North Korea and South Iran, 173 with Germany, 168 Korea, 173 Iraq, 175 Russia, Ukraine, and India, 172 PRC, 173 U.S., 184 Iraq, 175 United States, 173 Kazakhstan and Ukraine, 180 with OMAN IRAQ Kuwait, 180 Russia, 180 Internal Developments, 184 Internal Developments, 174 Lithuania, 180 with PAKISTAN MTCR, 181 France, 166 Internal Developments, 180 Internal Developments, 184 North Korea, 184 Germany, 168 with with Norway, Ukraine, and Iran and Sudan, 173 Italy, 178 Afghanistan, 160 U.S., 184 Libya, 175 United Kingdom, 180 India and U.S., 172 PRC, 188 Russia, 175 MTCR, 181 South Korea, 192 MAURITIUS Ukraine, 175 PRC, 185 Syria, 192 with PRC and U.S., 185 Ukraine, 192 ISRAEL Chile, 164 South Africa, 185 Ukraine and U.S., 193 Internal Developments, 175 United States, 185 United States, 193 with MISSILE TECHNOLOGY CONTROL REGIME Brazil, India, and PRC, 164 PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF SAUDI ARABIA (MTCR) India, 171 (PRC) with MTCR Developments, 181 PRC, 176 Internal Developments, 186 France, 167 South Korea, 176 NETHERLANDS with SERBIA Syria, 176 with Brazil, India, and Israel, 164 with , 177 Canada, Germany, Spain, Egypt, 166 Bosnia and Russia, 162 United States, 177 and U.S., 164 India, 172 Iran, 173 SLOVAKIA ITALY Germany and NATO, 168 Israel, 176 with with Germany, NATO, and North Korea, 183 Azores and Ecuador, 161 Brazil, 163 U.S., 168 Pakistan, 185 France, 167 Germany and U.S., 168 SOUTH AFRICA Pakistan and U.S., 185 France, Germany, and Internal Developments, 194 NEW FORUM Russia, 188 United Kingdom, 166 with Internal Developments, 182 Taiwan, 188 France, Germany, and CIS, France, and U.S., 165 with United States, 188 U.S., 166 South Korea, 182 MTCR, 181 Malaysia, 178 Pakistan, 185 NORTH ATLANTIC Internal Developments, 189 JAPAN TREATY ORGANIZATION SOUTH KOREA Internal Developments, 178 (NATO) ROMANIA Internal Developments, 194 with with with with Germany and U.S., 168 Belarus, Czech Republic, Hungary, 168 Iran and North Korea, 173 South Korea, 179 Russia, and Ukraine, 161 Israel, 176 United States, 179 Germany and Netherlands, Japan, 179 168 MTCR, 181

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 157 Missile Developments

New Forum, 182 North Korea, 184 (UAE) Russia, 192 with OVERVIEW United States, 194 United States, 197 SPAIN UNITED KINGDOM International endeavors to limit the spread of missile with with technology appeared to move from strength to strength in Canada, Germany, Nether- Chile, 165 October when Russia and South Africa attended the 10th lands, and U.S., 164 France, Germany, and Plenary Meeting of the Missile Technology Control Egypt, 166 Italy, 166 Regime (MTCR) for the first time as full members . India, 172 SUDAN Brazil’s membership was also approved at the meeting. Malaysia, 180 with These new memberships are supported by each state’s United States, 198 Iran and Iraq, 173 adoption of regulations designed to control the trade in UNITED STATES technology that could contribute to the spread of SWEDEN Internal Developments, 198 capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction. Be- with with Australia and Russia, 161 yond the regime’s expansion to 28 states, the MTCR’s Australia and Germany, 160 technical annex has also been updated to take into ac- SYRIA Belarus, 162 count new technical developments. Dialogue with states Internal Developments, 195 Brazil, 163, 164 outside the MTCR has also been accorded priority, with with Canada, Germany, Nether- an eye to promoting voluntary adherence to the regime’s Germany, 168 lands, and Spain, 164 Israel, 176 CIS, France, and South guidelines. Ukraine and South Korea have already sig- Russia, 192 Africa, 165 naled their intention to join the regime and are engaged Croatia, 165 in formulating the appropriate legislation. TAIWAN Egypt, 166 Paradoxically, such developments may not be entirely Internal Developments, 195 France, Germany, and desirable. For example, South Korea has indicated that with Italy, 166 it may use MTCR membership as a basis to withdraw France, 167 Germany, 168 from an agreement with the United States that prevents PRC, 188 Germany and Japan, 168 United States, 196 Seoul from developing missile systems with ranges in Germany and Netherlands, excess of 180 kilometers. Seoul believes this is a neces- 168 THAILAND sary hedge against the North Korean missile threat. with Germany, Netherlands, and Elsewhere, events have highlighted the challenge posed Israel, 177 NATO, 168 United States, 196 India, 172 to arms control by determined proliferators and commer- India and Pakistan, 172 cial interests. Iran, 173 UNSCOM (the United Nations Special Commission Internal Developments, 196 Israel, 177 in Iraq) uncovered startling new evidence regarding with Japan, 179 ’s pre- and post- initiatives to acquire a United States, 197 Kuwait, 180 long-range missile capability. Indeed, in an attempt to UKRAINE MTCR, 181 preempt the revelations of two senior-level Iraqi defec- Internal Developments, 197 North Korea, 184 tors, Baghdad informed UNSCOM that it had manufac- with Norway, Russia, and Ukraine, 184 tured rocket motors, through reverse engi- Belarus, Czech Republic, neering and had flight-tested chemical warheads. More NATO, and Russia, 161 Pakistan, 185 ominously, U.N. and U.S. officials have accused Iraq of Brazil, 164 Pakistan and PRC, 185 Iraq, 175 PRC, 188 attempting to sustain its long-range missile program by Kazakhstan and Russia, 180 Russia, 193 covertly acquiring the necessary technology via a net- Norway, Russia, and Russia and Ukraine, 193 work of European and Russian arms dealers and front U.S., 184 South Korea, 194 companies. The Iraqi shopping list is said to have in- Russia, 192 Taiwan, 196 cluded accelerometers, gyroscopes, specialized metals, Russia and U.S., 193 Thailand, 196 machine tools, and a French-made furnace capable of Turkey, 197 manufacturing engine parts for missiles. The U.N. has UAE, 197 United Kingdom, 198 accused French, German, and Ukrainian commercial

158 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments interests of encouraging Iraq in its efforts to bypass U.N. NOTE: Security Council Resolution 687. A date marked with an “*” indicates that an event was re- Developments in several regions indicate that some states ported on that date; a date without an “*” is the date when lack confidence in arms control and are now exploring tech- an event actually occurred. nical responses to missile proliferation. For example, fear The numbers listed in parentheses following the biblio- over India’s potential deployment of Privthi missiles along graphic references refer to the identification number of the its western border has prompted Pakistan to commence document in the CNS Missile Database from which the news development of an ATBM system capable of intercepting summaries are abstracted. Because of the rapidly changing these short-range missiles. China’s conduct of two missile nature of the subject matter, The Nonproliferation Review exercises off the Taiwan coast (and doubts about the ability is unable to guarantee that the information reported herein of modified Patriot systems to fend off a real missile at- is complete or accurate, and disclaims liability to any party tack,) have led Taiwan to explore the possibility of partici- for any loss or damage caused by errors or omissions. pation in the U.S. (Theater High Altitude Area Defense) program. While Washington hesitates over working with Taiwan on advanced theater missile defense (TMD), it has enhanced cooperation with Japan and South Korea, each having expressed concern over North Korea’s No-dong missile program. China has responded by making it clear that any deployment of advanced defense systems in the region, particularly those with a space-based dimension, will have negative repercussions on the arms control front. Israel, already well-versed in technical remedies to ad- dress its security dilemma in the , has tested the partly U.S.-sponsored -2 ATBM for the first time. In , North Atlantic Treaty Organization has con- tinued to adapt to the post- security environment by increasing TMD collaboration between member states. Advanced ballistic missile defense systems will be expen- sive and technically difficult to develop. Success is by no means assured. The United States continues to discuss the reinterpretation of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with Russia, seeking a means to make the difficult distinction between systems capable of bringing down strategic-range missiles versus those that can only offer protection against shorter-range and tactical missiles. As these discussions may lead to exports of advanced theater missile defense tech- nology, their outcome is bound to be far-reaching for arms control.

Wyn Bowen and Holly Porteous

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 159 Missile Developments

gentina for sponsoring Brazil’s joining the intend to purchase 179 more of these ves- MTCR” when he meets Argentine President sels; all of these ships weigh less than 1,500 AFGHANISTAN Carlos Menem on 10/17/95. tons. Market researchers attribute the de- Telam (Buenos Aires), 10/15/95; in FBIS-LAT-95- mand for such countermeasure systems to 199, 10/15/95 (5583). the worldwide proliferation of ASM such as the U.S.’s , France’s , INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS Late 10/95 Israel’s , the U.K.’s , and Brazil and Argentina agree to set up a co- China’s . 10/95 operative arrangement to allow for their Gregor Ferguson, Defense News, 10/23/95, p. 10 Responding to the Taleban militia’s threat to pursuit of “common projects involving the (5559). attack Kabul, Afghan President Borhanoddin MTCR.” Ovidio Bellando, La Nacion (Buenos Aires), 10/ AUSTRALIA WITH GERMANY AND Rabbani’s government deploys missiles 30/95, p. 6; in FBIS-LAT-95-211, 10/30/95 (5584). in the Safi mountains. The “130 km-range” UNITED STATES missiles could be launched against targets in Maydan Shahr, in the Vardak Province, 10/23/95* and Mohammad Agha, in the Lugar Prov- AUSTRALIA Australia is seeking to acquire the U.S.- ince. German developed Rolling Airframe Mis- IRNA (), 10/11/95; in FBIS-NES-95-197, 10/ sile defense system as part of its “ up- 11/95 (5444). grade program.” Robert Holzer, Defense News, 10/23/95-10/29/95, INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS AFGHANISTAN WITH PAKISTAN p. 10 (5565).

10/27/95* 10/95 AUSTRALIA WITH RUSSIA The Rabbani government’s threat to fire Senator Chris Schacht, Australian minister Scuds against Islamabad and Peshawar is a for Small Businesses, Customs, and Con- 10/18/95* bluff because Kabul neither has such mis- struction, says Australia is ideal for launch- Russian Space Agency (RSA) and siles nor the personnel to operate them. The ing SLVs because of its excellent record Khrunichev representatives will travel to Rabbani government’s threat is reportedly within the MTCR and its proximity to the Australia, in 11/95, to discuss use of Rus- in response to Pakistan’s alleged interference equator. sian Cosmos SLVs to launch small satel- Radio Australia (Melbourne), 10/17/95; in FBIS- in Afghanistan’s affairs. According to former EAS-95-200, 10/17/95 (5391). lites into low-earth orbit from the Woomera Afghan military officers, in the past Kabul rocket range. Woomera is located in north- asked the for Scuds approxi- 10/23/95* ern Australia. The visit will include mately two or three days prior to using them. The Australian orders AWA discussions regarding the Lockheed- The missiles were subsequently delivered Defence Industries’ (AWADI) PRISM mis- Khrunichev- International Launch five to 10 hours before they were needed, sile defense system for its 16 Fremantle- Services (ILS) proposal to construct “a com- passing through seven stages prior to launch; class patrol boats, and for six Huon-class mercial in northern Australia.” each stage involved different groups of Rus- Flight International, 10/18/95-10/24/95, p. 32 coastal minehunters under construction. (5391). sian engineers. The Afghan Mojahedin re- The Australian Navy is also considering the portedly acquired Scud missile launchers PRISM system for its future “offshore pa- 10/23/95* following the collapse of the Najibollah gov- trol combatants program.” The PRISM sys- Russia’s Cosmos Group and the Australian ernment. tem is designed to provide early warning of Jang (Rawalpindi), 10/27/95, pp. 1, 7; in FBIS-NES- Space Office are negotiating a joint venture 95-209, 10/27/95 (5437). missile attacks and to deploy and de- to involve the assembly and launch in Aus- coy countermeasures in response. tralia of a small, Russian-designed, liquid- Gregor Ferguson, Defense News, 10/23/95, p. 10 (5559). fueled SLV. Under the proposal, the Rus- sian State Research Center will develop the ARGENTINA 10/23/95* unofficially named ‘Seagull’ launcher over Australia’s AWADI and M.L. Aviation plan the next three to five years. Seagull will be to sell a joint PRISM-Superbarricade mis- equipped with an engine built by NPO sile defense system to countries with small Energomash. Australia will start using ARGENTINA WITH BRAZIL naval vessels. According to industry and Russian Start boosters in 1997, before pro- diplomatic sources, Asia-Pacific nations duction of the Seagull rocket begins. 10/15/95 Warren Ferster, Space News, 10/23/95-10/29/95, have purchased (but have not yet received) p. 16 (5635). Brazilian President Fernando Henrique 28 patrol, attack, and minehunter ships and Cardoso announces that he will “thank Ar-

160 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments

AUSTRALIA WITH RUSSIA AND SWEDEN 8/95 Early 1995 BELARUS The Chief of Russia’s Strategic Rocket Representatives from Russia’s rocket pro- Forces (SRF) Colonel General Igor Sergeyev duction consortium Cosmos, Sweden’s Tech- confirms that passes have not been issued nology Trade International, and several for the removal of missiles from Belarus Australian companies discuss forming a joint BELARUS WITH CZECH REPUBLIC, since 7/95, because Minsk has complained Russian-Australian venture to “develop and NATO, RUSSIA, AND UKRAINE that the Russian military is leaving its former market” a new SLV. facilities in an “inappropriate condition.” Radio Australia (Melbourne), 10/17/95; in FBIS- 7/17/95-7/19/95 Thus far, seven of the nine original SS-25 EAS-95-200, 10/17/95 (5391). Scientific and defense experts meet in Kiev regiments have returned to Russia. to discuss the dismantling of Ukraine’s ex- Belarusian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey cess military capabilities, including the Sannikov says Belarus has until 2001 to re- AZORES issues of how to decommission rocket move all its ICBMs to Russia under the motors and to dispose of their fuels. The Lisbon Protocol. However, a bilateral agree- seminar is organized by NATO’s Scientific ment between the two states reportedly en- Committee, Ukraine’s National Academy of visages an end-of-1996 deadline. Sannikov Sciences, and the Ukrainian branch of the adds that a joint Belarus-Russian commis- AZORES () WITH ECUADOR World Laboratory. Representatives from sion has been formed to address technical AND SLOVAKIA Belarus, the Czech Republic, Russia, and issues related to the withdrawal. Accord- four NATO members attend the three day ing to an anonymous Russian diplomat in 3/95 seminar. Minsk, the suspension of missile withdraw- A shipment of “surplus Slovak ground-to- Defense News, 9/18/95-9/24/95, p. 2 (5454). als was a joint decision made by Russian ground missiles,” reportedly destined for Intelnews (Kiev), 9/18/95; in FBIS-SOV-95-181, President Yeltsin and President Lukashenka, Ecuador, is intercepted on a plane in the 9/18/95 (5262). and was based on lack of funds and accom- Azores (an autonomous region of Portugal). modation for redeployed missile troops. The aircraft’s manifest lists the missiles as BELARUS WITH IRAN Yuriy Drakakhrust, Belarusskaya Delovaya Gazeta medical supplies. (Minsk), 8/3/95, p. 3; in FBIS-SOV-95-152, 8/3/ 95 (5599). Viktor Litovkin, Izvestiya (), Brendan McNally and Jan Stojaspal, Prague Post 7/95 7/6/95, pp. 1-2; in FBIS-SOV-95-129, 7/6/95 (Prague), 6/13/95, p. 4; in FBIS-EEU-95-126, 6/ An Iranian delegation visiting Belarus—which (5599). 13/95 (5263). Brendan McNally, Defense News, 8/ includes Vice President Hasan Habibi—dis- 7/95-8/13/95, p. 25 (5508). plays a “special interest” in acquiring a 8/5/95* “wheeled prime movers plant.” Experts pre- A senior official from the Belarusian For- dict that Tehran wants the vehicles to trans- eign Ministry denies that Belarusian Presi- BAHRAIN port missile equipment. dent Aleksandr Lukashenka has halted the Anna Baneva, Kommersant-Daily (Moscow) 7/18/ 95, pp. 1, 4; in FBIS-SOV-95-137, 7/18/95 (5622). transfer of missiles to Russia. According to the official, Lukashenka supports a “slower transfer of the Russian strategic forces” be- BELARUS WITH RUSSIA INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS cause Moscow has failed to meet its with- 7/95 drawal obligations regarding the “elimina- 9/30/95* tion of environmental hazards” at former Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenka missiles sites. Bahrain is looking to obtain new ordnance says the agreement reached by his predeces- to enhance the lethality of its nine U.S.- Interfax (Moscow), 8/5/95; in FBIS-SOV-95-11, 8/ sor on the withdrawal of Russian ICBMs 5/95 (5599). manufactured Loral Vought Multiple Launch from Belarus has been a “big political mis- Rocket Systems (MLRS). take,” and that the missiles should remain Jacques de Lestapis, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/30/ 9/28/95 95, pp. 32-33 (5624). in their current positions. Lukashenka’s re- Major General Vladimir Verkhovtsev, of the marks follow decisions by the Belarusian Main Operational Department of the Gen- Defense Ministry to stop issuing passes nec- eral Staff of the , says essary for the removal of missiles to Rus- the withdrawal of SS-25s from Belarus has sia, and to refuse entry into Belarus of Rus- been suspended, pending a “political deci- sian trains scheduled to remove the remain- sion.” Experts believe Ukrainian President ing 18 SS-25s. Aleksandr Lukashenka initiated the suspen- Viktor Litovkin, Izvestiya (Moscow), 7/6/95, pp. sion and predict that a complete missile 1-2; in FBIS-SOV-95-129, 7/6/95 (5599).

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 161 Missile Developments withdrawal will not begin until 1997. cials evade questions regarding the possible range SS-80 rocket, which forms part of a Anatoliy Yurkin, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 9/28/95; in transfer to Iran of an unexploded U.S. Toma- coastal defense system based on the Astros- FBIS-SOV-95-189, 9/28/95 (5599). hawk cruise missile which failed to deto- 2 rocket system. The SS-80 is nearly iden- nate on Bosnian Serb positions. According tical to the 60 km-range SS-60 rocket but BELARUS WITH UNITED STATES to media reports, military hardware is be- has a longer range because it incorporates ing transhipped from Bosnia to Iran via an improved motor. A battery in Avibras’s 8/95 Russia. The MOD also fails to confirm or coastal defense system comprises eight in- The U.S. and Belarus discuss problems re- deny reports that U.S.-manufactured Stinger dividually-sited operational vehicles. Six garding the latter’s dismantlement of SS-25 SAMs and Tow-2 Hellfire ATMs are being of these vehicles are AV-LMU launchers missiles following a 6/95 agreement between transferred from Bosnia to Iran. which can fire four different caliber rocket the two countries on the “liquidation of stra- Anatoliy Yurkin, Itar-Tass World Service (Moscow), types fitted with submunitions. The num- tegic offensive arms.” Under the agreement, 10/9/95; in FBIS-SOV-95-195, 10/9/95 (5432). ber of rockets that can be fired from each the U.S. is required to provide Belarus with launcher depends on the caliber type in use. equipment for dismantling the missiles. The IDR Despatches, 7/95, p. 3 (5318). U.S. will teach Belarusian experts how to BRAZIL utilize the equipment, which will remain in 7/3/95 the former Soviet republic after the program Brazilian President Cardoso’s government ends. The U.S. plans to begin implement- submits a bill to Congress designed to regu- ing the program in mid-1996. late the export of sensitive items, including INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS Belapan (Minsk), 8/17/95; in FBIS-SOV-95-159, goods and services applicable to missile 8/17/95 (5619). development. According to Strategic Af- * 3/12/95 fairs Secretary Ronaldo Sardenberg, the bill’s Brazil is scheduled to establish guidelines, enactment will be the culmination of a se- BOSNIA in mid-3/95, regarding the future availabil- ries of Brazilian commitments to nonpro- ity of its Alcantara Launch Center (CLA) liferation. Other commitments include the for other countries involved in the aerospace creation of the Brazilian Space Agency field. (AEB) under civilian jurisdiction; the AEB Joaquim Monteiro, Correio Braziliense (Brasilia), is responsible directly to the President. BOSNIA WITH RUSSIA AND SERBIA 3/12/95, p. 20; in FBIS-TAC-95-003, 3/12/95 (5317). Ronaldo Mota Sardenberg, O Globo (Rio de Janeiro), 7/12/95, p. 6; in FBIS-TAC-95-004, 7/ 7/31/95* 12/95 (5315). Agencia Estado (Sao Paulo), 7/4/ Senior Bosnian Serb military officials claim 4/26/95 95; in FBIS-TAC-95-014-L, 7/4/95 (5315). to have acquired Russian-made SA-10B air- Colonel Tiago da Silva Ribeiro, director of defense systems. According to the Bosnian Brazil’s SLV program, oversees a success- 7/23/95 Serbs, their 32 SA-10B launchers and 128 ful “engine separation test” at the Aeronau- Brazilian Foreign Minister Luiz Felipe missiles will be used against attacking tics and Space Institute in Sao Jose dos Cam- Lampreia reaffirms Brazil’s commitment to NATO aircraft. The SA-10B missiles are pos. Ribeiro says that Brazil’s first indig- the nonproliferation of missiles and weap- reportedly armed with fragmented, 220-lb, enous SLV will launch a meteorological ons of mass destruction (WMD). Lampreia high-explosive warheads and are capable of , made at the Space Research Insti- describes his government’s export control intercepting targets at altitudes of between tute (INPE), from the Alcantara launch site bill as “an essential step forward.” 75 and 90,000 feet. One SA-10B battery by 6/96. The program Luiz Felipe Lampreia, Folha De Sao Paulo (Sao involves development of a 20 m long, four- Paulo), 7/23/95, p. 3; in FBIS-LAT-95-145, 7/23/ can engage six targets simultaneously. U.S. 95 (5313). intelligence disputes the Serb claim to pos- stage, solid-fuel rocket designed to place a 200 kg satellite into low orbit. According sess SA-10B systems because of the lack of 7/24/95* physical and electronic evidence of their to retired Colonel Gerald Cavagnari, direc- tor of the Campinas University Strategic Brazilian President Cardoso seeks support presence in Bosnia. The SA-10B systems among party leaders for his government’s may have been smuggled to Bosnia through Studies Group, the Brazilian Air Force could convert the SLV into an IRBM. draft export control bill. The proposed law Serbia from Eastern Europe. will regulate exports of sensitive military David A. Fulghum, Aviation Week & Space Tech- Jose Casado, O Estado De Sao Paulo (Sao Paulo), nology, 7/31/95, pp. 20-21 (5609). 4/30/95, p. A4; in FBIS-TAC-95-003, 4/30/95 and dual-use items, including materials that (5591). can be used in the development of missiles and WMD. The law will also enable the BOSNIA WITH IRAN AND RUSSIA 7/95* government to punish persons that violate Brazilian defense manufacturer Avibras re- 10/9/95 Brazilian export regulations. The bill’s pas- leases information regarding its new 80 km- Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) offi-

162 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments sage is necessary for Brazil to become a obtain space launch components and sys- Brazil’s Strategic Affairs Secretariat (SAE) member of the MTCR, which it expects to tems through cooperative agreements with is responsible for the coordination of ex- join in 10/95. According to Rodrigo de overseas firms. port controls on dual-use items, including Azeredo, head of the Research Technology Cosme Degenar, Technologia & Defesa (Sao Paulo), goods and services related to missiles. The Department of the Brazilian embassy in pp. 8-12; in FBIS-LAT-95-213, 11/3/95 (5585). SAE also deals with export controls for bio- Russia, Brazil began adhering to MTCR logical, chemical, and nuclear-related prod- guidelines in principle in 2/94, and “unilat- 8/18/95 ucts. The Secretariat’s principal function is erally adopted” missile technology controls Brazilian President Cardoso says that “Bra- to assist the President on issues of national in 12/94. zil does not possess, nor does it produce or strategy. Gazeta Mercantil (Sao Paulo), 7/24/95, p. A5; in intend to produce, to import or to export Ronaldo Sardenberg, O Globo (Rio de Janeiro), 9/ FBIS-LAT-95-149, 7/24/95 (5506). Aleksandr long-range military missiles capable of car- 10/95, p. 6; in FBIS-LAT-95-178, 9/10/95 (5316). Korzun, Igor Porshnev, Yevgeniy Terekhov, Interfax rying weapons of mass destruction.” (Moscow), 6/19/95; in FBIS-TAC-95-014-L, 6/19/ Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Defense News, 9/18/ 10/5/95 95 (5506). 95-9/24/95, p. 32 (5605). Luciana Marinho, Voz The Brazilian Senate enacts the government’s Do Brasil Network (Brasilia), 8/18/95; in FBIS- 7/25/95 LAT-95-161, 8/18/95 (5506). bill which gives SAE the responsibility for General Sergio Xavier Ferolla, director of controlling exports of missile technology the Research and Development Department 8/29/95 and other sensitive materials. According to of Brazil’s Ministry of Air, says that the Presidential spokesman Sergio Amaral says Brazilian Senator Hugo Napoleao, the new Aerospace Technical Center (CTA) is re- the Brazilian government will solve fund- legislation will facilitate Brazil’s acquisition sponsible for developing special steels for ing problems threatening to delay the SLV’s of sensitive technology. Jornal Do Brasil (Rio de Janeiro), 10/6/95, p. 4; in Brazil’s Sonda series of rockets. The Bra- 7/20/96 scheduled launch. According to FBIS-LAT-95-196, 10/6/95 (5582). zilian firm Eletrometal, in conjunction with project engineers, CTA has not received its 1995 budget allocation of $19 million to the National Bank for Economic and Social BRAZIL WITH: Development (BNDES), produces the steels. finance the program’s final phase; Colonel Argentina, 160 Ferolla adds that CTA has also developed Ribeiro, director of the Aeronautics and titanium technology, which it has given to Space Institute, says the money will pay for BRAZIL WITH FRANCE, GERMANY, the Rio Doce Valley Company, and ammo- manufacture of the Electrical Network In- ITALY, RUSSIA, AND UNITED STATES nium perchlorate, which is produced by the tegration Mock-Up (), which will be Andrade Gutierrez Chemical company. used to integrate and test key rocket sys- According to Ferolla, CTA is experiencing tems. Reportedly, development of control Late 4/95-Early 5/95 difficulties in attracting skilled manpower. system software is the SLV program’s ma- Brazil has reportedly smuggled microelec- Cosme Degenar, Technologia & Defesa (Sao Paulo), jor difficulty. The SLV’s propulsion sys- tronics items and components from Russia pp. 8-12; in FBIS-LAT-95-213, 11/3/95 (5585). tem—capable of propelling the rocket to 7,477 for its SLV program. According to Brazil- meters per second—incorporates a “special ian technicians, Russia has offered micro- 7/25/95 type of steel,” allowing temperature resis- electronic components at half the interna- General Ferolla, director of the Research and tance of up to 3,000 degrees celsius. The tional market rate. A favored location for Development Department of Brazil’s Min- steel, jointly developed by CTA and Acesita Brazil and Russia to conduct their negotia- istry of Air, says that AEB is responsible (Itabira Special Steel Company), is exported tions was reportedly the Brazilian Aeronau- for setting Brazil’s space policy while the by Brazil. Stage separation is accomplished tics Commission’s London office. Colonel Ministry of Air is in charge of launch op- by a “pyrotechnical” system consisting of Ribeiro, director of Brazil’s SLV program, erations. The AEB’s 1995 budget alloca- explosive charges in lead alloy connection claims Brazil has also obtained rocket guid- tion is 50 million reals. According to hoops. Brazil has already completed 80 ance components from France, Germany, Ferolla, European and U.S. firms have made percent of the four-stage, 19 m-long SLV, Italy, and the U.S. via the black market. numerous requests to utilize the Alcantara spending $257 million in the process. Af- Brazil has failed to purchase a complete in- space launch facility. Ferolla says Brazil is ter the prototype has been tested, it is esti- ertial from abroad because investing heavily to improve Alcantara and mated that each rocket will cost $10 mil- of MTCR restrictions, but has resolved this plans exist to create a firm to manage the lion. One hundred national companies and deficiency by acquiring the associated soft- center; the Ministry of Air, however, will 600 CTA associated researchers are involved ware and individual components instead. remain responsible for security. Brazil’s in building Brazil’s SLV. The Aeronautics Ministry claims on 5/4/ Natal facility, situated in “the middle of the Daniel Hessel Teich, O Globo (Rio de Janeiro), 8/ 95, however, that the Brazilian government Atlantic Ocean,” is already used by Euro- 30/95, p. 20; in FBIS-LAT-95-174, 8/30/95 (5314). has acquired microelectronic components for pean firms to monitor the flights of their the SLV “through legal purchasing mecha- space launchers. Brazil hopes the removal 9/10/95 nisms.” of international embargoes will enable it to Strategic Affairs Secretary Sardenberg says Jose Casado, O Estado De Sao Paulo (Sao Paulo),

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 163 Missile Developments

4/30/95, p. A4; in FBIS-TAC-95-003, 4/30/95 lite in 1996. Ukraine has reportedly of- (5591). EFE (Madrid), 5/5/95; in FBIS-TAC-95- fered to assist Brazil’s SLV program. 003, 5/5/95 (5591). Space News, 10/30/95-11/5/95, pp. 1, 20 (5580). BRUNEI

BRAZIL WITH GERMANY 10/25/95 Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma de- 9/18/95-9/21/95 clares that his country and Brazil are dis- INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS During a state visit to Germany, Brazilian cussing potential cooperative efforts involv- President Cardoso will meet with German ing space technology. Kuchma says that 9/23/95* President Roman Herzog and Prime Minis- Brazil offers an inexpensive space launch ter Helmut Kohl in an effort to forge greater Brunei is interested in acquiring an offshore site, while Ukraine could supply Brazil with patrol vessel fitted with a “vertical launch cooperation between the two countries in “advanced missile technology.” Ukraine is the areas of space and nuclear technology. missile system.” Brunei’s requirement for interested in using Brazil’s CLA in order to three 1,000 ton patrol vessels originated in According to Brazilian Strategic Affairs conduct test launches. Secretary Sardenberg, German cooperation 1989. Brunei is now reportedly consider- Reuter, 10/25/95; in Executive News Service, 10/ ing ships with a larger displacement than in Brazil’s SLV program will be “facilitated” 26/95 (5587). after Brazil becomes a member of the 1,000 tons, in order to fit extra equipment, including the vertical launch missile system. MTCR. BRAZIL WITH UNITED STATES Odail Figueiredo, O Estado De Sao Paulo (Sao Bruneian officials are scheduled to visit sev- Paulo), 9/19/95, p. A4; in FBIS-TAC-95-005, 9/ 3/12/95* eral shipyards in 10/95. 19/95 (5590). Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/23/95, p. 15 (5386). According to General Jose Elisande Bayo Barros, director of the Department of Re- BRAZIL WITH INDIA, ISRAEL AND PRC search and Development in Brazil’s Minis- 3/95 try of Aeronautics, NASA launched 30 rock- CANADA ets from the Alcantara Launch Center CLA Israel, China, Brazil, and India are report- in 1994 as part of an agreement with AEB. edly cooperating on the development of the Seventy-five NASA technicians and scien- Arrow anti-missile system. Viktor Mizin, Yadernyy Kontrol (Moscow), 3/95, tists, along with 280 technicians and re- CANADA WITH GERMANY, NETHER- pp. 12-17; in FBIS-UST-044, 11/1/95 (5641). searchers from CLA and INPE, participated LANDS, SPAIN, AND UNITED STATES in Operation Guara, the name given to the BRAZIL WITH: launches collectively. General Elisande 10/23/95* MTCR, 181 views the operation as an important indica- Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, and the tor of CLA’s technical expertise in launch- U.S. are working together to develop the ing small and medium-sized rockets. BRAZIL WITH RUSSIA Local Area Missile System to defend against Joaquim Monteiro, Correio Braziliense (Brasilia), 3/12/95, p. 20; in FBIS-TAC-95-003, 3/12/95 ASCMs. The system will be based on 9/4/95* (5317). NATO’s Sea Sparrow missile and fitted on- General Roberto Jugurta de Camara Senna, board a new class of anti-air frigate which third deputy chief of the Brazilian Army 7/24/95* will be developed with Spain. The new Staff, says Brazil has acquired Russian Igla AEB is preparing to conclude an agreement missile will employ an infrared search and missiles for its anti-aircraft batteries. Senna with NASA to increase cooperation between scan system and a “new ship’s combat sys- cites the purchase of these accurate missiles the two organizations. The planned agree- tem.” as an example of how Brazil intends to mod- ment will include space research projects Robert Holzer, Defense News, 10/23/95-10/29/95, ernize its forces as part of the “Ground Force and work involving the . p. 10 (5565). 2000 (FT 2000)” program. O Estado De Sao Paulo (Sao Paulo), 7/24/95, p. Cesar Felicio, Gazeta Mercantil (Sao Paulo), 9/4/ A3; in FBIS-LAT-95-150, 7/24/95 (5506). 95, p. A6; in FBIS-LAT-95-179, 9/4/95 (5588). 10/30/95* CHILE BRAZIL WITH UKRAINE Manuel Montenegro, the head of the sci- ence and technology section at Brazil’s em- 10/95 bassy in Washington, says that U.S. compa- CHILE WITH MAURITIUS The head of the Ukrainian Space Agency nies such as and Rockwell Alexander Negoda expresses an interest in International have shown an interest in us- using Brazil’s Alcantara Launch Center ing the Alcantara launch site. 9/25/95 (CLA) and in launching a Brazilian satel- Space News, 10/30/95-11/5/95, pp. 1, 20 (5580). Mauritius orders a 75 m “de- signed to carry missiles” from Chile’s Na-

164 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments val Docks and Yards (Asmar) in Talcahuano. launch facilities can be utilized fully. Serbs outside . The boat is scheduled to be ready on 5/10/ Aviation Week and Space Technology, 7/3/95, pp.62- Igor Alborghetti, Globus (Zagreb), 8/18/95, p.2; 96 and will cost between $20 to $22 mil- 65 (5479). in FBIS-EEU-95-165, 8/18/95 (5564). lion. According to Captain Hernan Barria, Asmar-Talcahuano’s manager, Mauritius CROATIA WITH RUSSIA will use the boat to defend its “exclusive eco- COLUMBIA nomic zone” and to “police” the region. Late 5/95 Patricio Gomes, El Mercurio (Santiago), 9/25/95, Croatia displays four Russian-made SA-10 p. C6; in FBIS-LAT-95-198, 9/25/95 (5441). ‘Grumble’ (S-300) missile tubes in Zagreb; Croatia acquired SA-10 air-defense systems CHILE WITH UNITED KINGDOM INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS despite the U.N. embargo on arms sales to the former Yugoslav republic. According * 9/6/95 9/95 to some sources, Croatia has a self-propelled Chile’s Fabricaciones Militares (FAMAE) Colombia allocates U.S. $108 million to SA-10B system, although NATO’s electronic signs an agreement with ’s modernize its navy; included in the program warfare forces have not detected any signs Royal Ordnance Division to produce the are upgrades to four Almirante Padilla class of the emissions associated with this Rayo rocket system through their equipped with eight MM-40 system. co-owned FAMAE Ordnance Ltda. The Exocet missiles. Columbia also plans to International Defense Review, 7/95, pp. 6, 9 (5563). cooperative agreement covers production of acquire two new corvettes to operate on its David A. Fulghum, Aviation Week & Space Tech- nology, 7/31/95, pp. 20-21 (5609). approximately 200 rockets, one launcher, Caribbean coast, and expresses an interest and a fire control system. The initial sys- in former Soviet Osa II class missile attack CROATIA WITH UNITED STATES tems will consist of two packs of 12 rockets ships. with a maximum range of 40 km. Rayo Adrian English, Jane’s Intelligence Review, 9/95, pp. 424-426 (5589). 7/95* will be produced and assembled in Chile, but the “strip laminated rocket casing” and U.N. military observers report Croatia’s use COLOMBIA WITH RUSSIA the high explosive rocket warheads will be of U.S.-manufactured Gnat 750 RPVs in the imported from the U.K. The 160 mm, 24- area and over Bihac in Bosnia. 9/95* round Rayo system is fitted on-board a 3 X Croatia uses the RPVs to detect weak spots 6 Mercedes-Benz truck, but it can also be Colombia is reportedly interested in acquir- in Serb defenses in Western Slavonia. Con- mounted on other types of chassis. The ing SA-9, SA-11, and SA-13 missiles from troversy surrounds Croatia’s acquisition of Chilean Army is expected to issue a pro- Russia. the Gnat 750 RPV because the CIA report- Adrian English, Jane’s Intelligence Review, 9/95, edly deployed them on the islands of Brac, duction order for the Rayo system before pp. 424-426 (5589). the contract expires in 36 months. before they were taken over by Croatia. International Defense Review, 7/95, pp. 6, 9 (5563). Michael Sperling, Defense News, 9/18/95, p. 44 (5586). Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/16/95, p. 5 (5586). CROATIA CZECH REPUBLIC COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS CZECH REPUBLIC WITH: (CIS) Early 8/95 Belarus, NATO, Russia, and Before their launch sites are overrun by the Ukraine, 161 Croatian Army, Croatian Serbs fire a FROG- 7 (Luna-M) rocket at Zagreb from Knin. CIS WITH FRANCE, SOUTH AFRICA, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 8/12/95, p. 3 (5260). AND UNITED STATES ECUADOR 8/95 7/3/95* Croatian forces capture large quantities of Officials from South Africa’s Overberg Serbian military equipment, including Toersbaan (OTB) test range are currently Orkan multiple rocket launchers, during ECUADOR WITH: examining the possible establishment of “” in northern Krajina. Azores and Slovakia, 161 cooperative space ventures with the U.S., Croatian forces also capture 60 km-range France, and the CIS, so that OTB space SA-N-2 ‘Styx’ sea-to-sea missiles from the

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 165 Missile Developments

FRANCE WITH GERMANY, ITALY, AND EGYPT EUROPEAN UNION UNITED KINGDOM 10/23/95* France, Germany and the U.K. are sched- uled to sign an agreement in 11/95 to ini- EGYPT WITH KUWAIT INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS tiate joint development of the Principal Anti- Air Missile System (PAAMS). PAAMS will * 7/29/95 7/1/95 be fitted on-board their jointly developed Kuwait is reportedly considering the pur- Under new E.U. legislation, all export li- Horizon frigate. PAAMS is based on the chase of Sakr-36 rocket launchers from censes for dual-use technology issued by an Future Surface-to-Air Family of missiles— Egypt’s Arab Organization for Industrial- E.U. state will be valid in the 14 other mem- which France and Italy have been develop- ization. ber states. The new legislation will attempt ing since 1988—and will include the medium- Jacques de Lestapis, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 7/29/ to harmonize lists of exportable goods within 95, pp.26-32 (5427). range Sol-Air Moyenne Portee modified the E.U. Although licenses will not be version of the Standard Missile. Although needed for most of the equipment on this PAAMS and the Future Surface-to-Air Fam- EGYPT WITH PRC list to move between member states, the state ily of missiles do not have theater missile of origin may still need to be notified. 9/2/95* defense capabilities, France’s and Jane’s Defence Weekly, 7/15/95, p. 4 (5264). a consortium of companies from the U.K., Egypt maintains two Chinese-built Jianqhu under the leadership of British Aerospace, in their naval inventory; both ships are “conducting studies in this field.” are armed with HY-2 Silkworm ASMs. Robert Holzer, Defense News, 10/23/95-10/29/95, James Bruce, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/2/95, pp. FRANCE p. 10 (5565). 51-54 (5395).

FRANCE WITH GERMANY, ITALY, AND EGYPT WITH SPAIN UNITED STATES FRANCE WITH: 9/2/95* Brazil, 163 2/95 Egypt has two Spanish-built Descubierta CIS, South Africa, and United France, Germany, Italy, and the U.S. agree class frigates armed with Harpoon ASMs. States, 165 James Bruce, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/2/95, pp. to develop the Medium-Range Extended Air 51-54 (5395). Defense System (MEADS). Under the FRANCE WITH IRAQ agreement, France’s Aerospatiale and EGYPT WITH UNITED STATES Thomson-CSF have a 20 percent stake in 10/13/95 the missile project. Germany’s DASA Si- 8/21/95* U.N. and U.S. officials accuse Iraq of co- emens also has a 20 percent share, while The U.S. approves the transfer of Harpoon vertly purchasing missile-related compo- Italy’s Alenia has a 10 percent stake. missiles and surplus Knox and Perry-class nents and technology, including a French- MEADS is designed to defend against cruise to the . supplied $1 million furnace capable of missiles, UAVs, battlefield ballistic missiles, Sharone Parnes, Defense News, 8/21/95, pp.4, 28 manufacturing missile engine parts. and aircraft. (5308). UNSCOM head Rolf Ekeus asserts that O.P., La Tribune Desfosses (Paris), 8/11/95, p. 8; Baghdad has also placed orders for other in FBIS-TAC-95-016-L, 9/1/95 (5266). Flight In- 9/2/95* ternational, 10/25/95-10/31/95, p. 14 (5352). missile-related “technologies, supplies, and David A. Fulghum, Aviation Week and Space Tech- The U.S. is upgrading the Egyptian Navy’s material” from abroad. U.N. officials as- nology, 10/30/95, p. 53 (5438). Mark Hewish, four Chinese-manufactured Romeo class sert that Iraq does not appear to have as- International Defense Review, 8/95, pp. 28-34 by fitting them with Harpoon sembled any new Scud missiles, but has (5632). ASMs, Mk 37 torpedoes, advanced fire-con- stockpiled and concealed materials, possi- trol systems, passive and active sonars, and bly to manufacture them in the future. 8/95 data links. One of the submarines has al- R. Jeffrey Smith, Washington Post, 10/14/95, pp. France’s General Delegate for Weapons ready been upgraded and returned to ser- A1, A20 (5423). Henri Conze expresses concern that the joint vice with the Egyptian Navy. Egypt is also U.S.-European development of an anti-mis- leasing two Knox class frigates armed with sile system is under threat due to a lack of Harpoon ASMs from the U.S. U.S. Congressional support for the project. James Bruce, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/2/95, pp. O.P., La Tribune Desfosses (Paris), 8/11/95, p. 8; 51-54 (5395). in FBIS-TAC-95-016-L, 9/1/95 (5266).

166 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments

10/95 FRANCE WITH KUWAIT involved in such activities. While Iranian, The U.S. Army chooses Lockheed Martin Iraqi, Libyan, and North Korean entities will Integrated Systems Inc. and H & R Com- 7/29/95* be included, Bonn is reportedly hesitant to pany (a joint venture involving Raytheon and The Kuwaiti Navy considers the acquisition name companies in profitable market areas Hughes Aircraft) to be the principal Ameri- of Aerospatiale’s 75 km-range Exocet MM- such as China, India, and Israel. Officials can contractors for the international MEADS 40 Block 2 (A) ASM to fulfil its Offshore say German firms will need Federal Export project. Both U.S. concerns are expected Missile Vessel (OMV) SSM/ASM require- Office permission to ship items to compa- to receive contracts in 1/96, after France, ment. Kuwait currently deploys the Exocet nies appearing on the list, which still awaits Germany, Italy, and the U.S. conclude a MM-38/40 Block 1 aboard two Lurssen approval by the Foreign and Economic Min- MEADS project MoU. After the MoU has ships. istries. In addition, the list will be pub- been signed, each U.S. participant will join Jane’s Defence Weekly, 7/29/95, pp. 34-36 (5427). lished to help German companies comply one of two European teams, both staffed E.R. Hooton, International Defense Review, 7/95, with the E.U.’s new “catch-all” clause— with personnel from the French companies pp. 73-79 (5427). scheduled to take effect in 7/95—that requires Aerospatiale and Thomson-CSF, the Ger- a firm to inform the government if it sus- FRANCE WITH SAUDI ARABIA man firms Daimler-Benz and Siemens, and pects its products will be used in WMD and Italy’s Alenia. The resultant two U.S.-Eu- missile production. ropean teams will compete during the Mid-10/95 Risk Report, 4/95, pp. 1, 10 (5611). MEADS project’s “definition and valida- French Defense Minister Charles Millon tion phase,” with one team progressing to discusses the possible sale of missiles and 10/95 the full-scale “design and development” other military equipment with Saudi Ara- Daimler-Benz Aerospace (DASA) warns the stage in 1999. bian officials in Jeddah. Millon says King German government that the future of sev- Jane’s Defence Weekly, 10/21/95, p.6 (5352). Avia- Fahd assured him that Saudi Arabia will eral key military programs under develop- tion Week & Space Technology, 10/23/95, p. 21 approach France to fulfill some of its future ment, including the international Medium (5352). military requirements. Range Extended Air Defense System Reuter, 10/15/95; Executive News Service, 10/16/ (MEADS), could be placed in jeopardy if * 10/30/95 95 (5392). Bonn fails to commit firmly to the procure- According to critics, the MEADS system’s ment of these systems. ground-based radar has only a limited FRANCE WITH TAIWAN Pierre Sparaco, Aviation Week and Space Technol- capability to detect low-flying missiles or ogy, 10/30/95, pp. 26-27 (5481). aircraft because it is hindered by the Earth’s 7/5/95 curvature. In order to rectify this problem, Taiwanese naval officials say six Lafayette- GERMANY WITH: researchers are considering mounting radar class missile frigates purchased from France Australia and United States, 160 systems on unmanned and teth- may form part of a new anti- flo- Brazil, 163, 164 ered balloons. tilla, “Fleet 168,” to be based at Chungcheng Canada, Netherlands, Spain, and David A. Fulghum, Aviation Week and Space Tech- Naval Base in the northeastern city of Suao, nology, 10/30/95, p. 53 (5438). United States, 164 Ilan County. Delivery of the frigates is ex- France, Italy, and United pected to begin in late 1996. FRANCE WITH ITALY Sofia Wu, CNA (Taipei), 7/5/95; in FBIS-CHI-95- Kingdom, 166 151, 7/5/95 (5550). France, Italy, and United States, 6/95 166 France and Italy sign an MoU to manufac- ture the land-based SAMP/T air-defense GERMANY WITH INDIA system within the Future Surface-To-Air GERMANY Family (FSAF) program. The SAMP/T is 6/30/95* scheduled for deployment with the Italian India’s Liquid Propulsion Systems Centre and French Armies, and the French Air (LPSC) is paying 50 crore rupees to the INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS Force, in 1999. France’s Aerospatiale and German firm Linde for assistance in mak- Thomson-CSF along with Italy’s Alenia, ing liquid hydrogen at its liquid hydrogen 4/95* have joined to form the Eurosam consor- production complex in Mahendragiri, near tium which will develop, test and produce Germany plans to publish a list of develop- Tirunelveli in Tamil Nadu. essential elements of the SAMP/T. ing world companies associated with the Raj Chengappa, India Today, 6/30/95, pp. 128-129; Mark Hewish, International Defense Review, 8/95, spread of missiles and weapons of mass de- in FBIS-TAC-95-014-L, 6/30/95 (5407). pp. 28-34 (5632). struction (WMD); however, due to intelli- gence and other considerations, the list will not include all companies believed to be

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 167 Missile Developments

GERMANY WITH IRAQ cise. The scenario involves Patriot SAM fied as an organization of concern in para- units from the Royal Netherlands Air Force, graph 5e of Germany’s national trade law; 10/13/95 the German Luftwaffe, and the U.S. Army all products destined to the center require a A U.N. official asserts that firms in Europe, practising their local area defense roles German export license. According to one including Germany, are among the suppli- against a simulated TBM attack. Allied German official, paragraph 5e only includes ers of missile-related technologies and ma- Forces Central Command and the U.S. Eu- Syrian projects, but these may be removed terials to Iraq. Iraq admits to obtaining some ropean Command’s TMD cell collaborate if Syrian-Israeli relations improve. of the materials to support its Ibn al- to organize the scenario, which is similar to Risk Report, 4/95, p. 11 (5499). Haytham missile research laboratory near the U.S. Central Command’s “Roving Sands” Baghdad and two similar sites, but asserts exercise of 5/95. GERMANY WITH UNITED STATES the materials were intended for the manu- Jane’s Defence Weekly, 10/7/95, p. 11 (5354). facture of short-range missiles only, which 9/95 is permitted under the U.N. embargo. Ac- GERMANY WITH NETHERLANDS AND The German Ministry of Defense (MOD) cording to U.N. officials, these materials UNITED STATES requests $15.3 million (DM23 million) to could be utilized in the production of both finance the upgrade of 96 Patriot PAC-2 short- and medium-range missiles. Late 4/95-early 5/95 SAMs to Guidance Enhanced Missile R. Jeffrey Smith, Washington Post, 10/14/95, pp. Ground-based air-defense units from Ger- (GEM) standard. The MOD plans to con- A1, A20 (5423). many and the Netherlands participate for clude a deal with the U.S. companies the first time in the “Roving Sands 95” air- Raytheon and Allied Signal to perform the GERMANY WITH JAPAN AND defense exercise. The exercise takes place upgrade. According to the MOD, the GEMs UNITED STATES in New and western Texas, and in- will be capable of engaging TBMs at longer volves live and simulated TBM operations ranges and with greater success. The MOD 10/23/95* to provide a forum for testing TMD capa- intends to keep the GEMs in operation with Japan includes the U.S.-German Rolling bilities of U.S. and allied forces within the Patriot PAC-3s, which it plans to acquire Airframe Missile system in its five-year Central Command. after 2001. defense plan. Joris Janssen Lok, International Defense Review, 8/ Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/16/95, p. 12 (5353). Robert Holzer, Defense News, 10/23/95-10/29/95, 95 (5474). p. 10 (5565). GERMANY WITH RUSSIA GERMANY WITH: HUNGARY MTCR, 182 9/25/95* The joint venture Eurorocket, formed by GERMANY WITH NETHERLANDS AND Daimler-Benz of Germany and Russia’s NATO Khrunichev State Research and Production HUNGARY WITH ROMANIA Space Center, hopes to launch a satellite 8/95* from a missile silo at the Baikonur 10/4/95 Germany and the Netherlands draw up a cosmodrome in 10/96. In 1997, Eurorocket After a meeting with Hungarian Defense MoU to establish a joint “Patriot/Hawk clus- also plans to begin launching commercial Minister Gyorgy Keleti, Romanian Defense ter” to be deployed with NATO’s Rapid Re- with Rockot SLVs from the Minister Gheorghe Tinca says that Bucharest Forces. The cluster will be deployed in northern Russia. wants to “get rid of its medium-range mis- either on NATO’s southern border or “out- Rocket is a converted SS-19 missile. siles.” However, Tinca adds that it would of-area.” Space News, 9/25/95-10/1/95, p. 18 (5349). cost more than $10 million to do so and International Defense Review, 8/95, p. 9 (5436). that, in any event, Romania’s weapons do GERMANY WITH SYRIA not threaten Hungary. Tinca also meets GERMANY WITH NETHERLANDS, NATO, deputies from the Hungarian Parliament’s * Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee who AND UNITED STATES 4/95 Syria’s Centre d’Etudes de Recherches have been campaigning to have neighbor- 10/95 Scientifiques (CERS) and its Higher Insti- ing countries (such as Romania) copy Hun- gary by dismantling their “offensive me- NATO forces from Germany, the U.S., and tute of Applied Science and Technology dium-range missiles.” the Netherlands conduct a TMD exercise (HIAST) appear on Germany’s export con- trol watch lists. According to an official MTI (Budapest), 10/4/95; in FBIS-EEU-95-194- over , Germany, the Benelux states, A, 10/4/95 (5351). parts of France, and the North Sea, during who monitors Germany’s trade with sensi- the organization’s annual “Cold Fire” exer- tive countries, CERS and HIAST cooperate closely with one another. CERS is identi-

168 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments

Risk Report, 1/95-2/95, pp. 3-9 (5488) has an operational ceiling of 9,000 m. The aircraft is launched by a rocket booster fit- INDIA 6/24/95* ted under its tail and is propelled when air- Pakistani President Farooq Ahmad Khan borne by a 3,000 kg static thrust gas-tur- Leghari says India’s , , and in- bine engine. The PTA is used for training tercontinental ballistic missile development pilots in air-to-air combat and for towing INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS programs may lead to an arms race on the targets to train surface-to-air missile troops. subcontinent. Leghari says India’s missiles IDR Despatches, 7/95, p. 5 (5408). 1/95 are also causing problems for other coun- India’s Nishant battlefield surveillance and tries because they can reach as far as China, 7/12/95 reconnaissance UAV flies for the first time. Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. Pakistani Foreign Minister Sardar Asif Ali The Nishant was previously known as the PTV Television Network (Islamabad), 6/24/95; in announces that his country has sufficient Falcon. FBIS-TAC-95-014-L, 6/24/95 (5335). proof to indicate that India has deployed its Flight International, 7/12/95-7/18/95, p. 16 (5414). Prithvi ballistic missiles against Pakistan. * 6/30/95 Xinhua (), 7/12/95; in FBIS-CHI-95-134, 1/95* G. Madhaven Nair replaces A.E. 7/12/95 (5404). According to the CIA, India is developing Muthunayagam as director of the Indian * a lightweight nuclear warhead which it can Space Research Organization’s (ISRO) Liq- 7/12/95 deliver to Beijing on its Agni ballistic mis- uid Propulsion Systems Centre (LPSC). The India’s Aeronautical Development Establish- sile. India can also produce an ICBM if it LPSC is currently developing a 7.5 ton- ment anticipates that its domestically-pro- modified its new space rocket into a SSM thrust cryogenic engine for the final stage duced Nishant UAV will be in use by the mode and developed a reliable long-range of the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch in late 1996. guidance system. Vehicle (GSLV). This cryogenic engine will Flight International, 7/12/95-7/18/95, p. 16 (5414). Risk Report, 1/95-2/95, pp. 3-9 (5488) use super-cooled liquid oxygen and hydro- gen; accordingly, India must acquire the ca- 7/16/95 1/95* pability to handle temperatures ranging from Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, scientific advisor A U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) study -250 degrees celsius (during fuel storage) to the Indian Defense Minister, tells Bharat asserts that India remains deficient in sev- to 2,000 degrees celsius (in the engine’s Dynamics Limited (BDL) that India should eral key technological areas in the missile thrust chambers). India currently lacks the continue to pursue self-reliance in missile field: guidance, navigation, , sen- powdered metallurgy and special alloys re- technology, despite international pressure to sors, electronics, composites, and propul- quired to allow the engine’s thrust cham- the contrary. Kalam commends BDL for sion. New Delhi is looking to acquire light- bers, turbines, and tanks to withstand such producing the Prithvi missile. extreme temperature variations. The cryo- Deccan Chronicle (Hyderabad), 7/17/95, p. 7; in weight, heat-resistant composite materials FBIS-NES-95-144, 7/17/95 (5412). to manufacture rocket nozzles and motor genic engine also requires 43,000 RPM turbo pumps that can tolerate extreme pres- cases. According to a U.S. State Depart- 7/18/95 ment official, although India currently pro- sure and temperature changes. At present, India is only capable of developing a 15,000 Following a U.S. government report that duces its own gyroscopes, it is seeking China had delivered M-11 missiles to higher quality products to enhance the sta- RPM turbo pump for liquid fuels. LPSC scientists will also need to acquire the ex- Islamabad, an Indian government official bilization and accuracy of its missile sys- says India will match Pakistan’s new mis- tems. India also wants superior accelerom- pertise necessary to fabricate the engine’s injector unit, which features complex double sile capability. Indian External Affairs eters to measure missile speeds more pre- Minister Pranab Mukherjee says New Delhi cisely, laser to enhance guidance ca- valve systems, and to machine the tiny heli- cal grooves required during the “regenera- will be forced to increase its own missile pabilities, and integrated circuits for mis- stockpile to maintain the region’s security sile and rocket guidance systems. In terms tive cooling process” in the inner thrust chamber. The GSLV’s first launch is sched- balance. of dual-use items, India seeks to import: UPI, 7/18/95; in Executive News Service, 7/19/95 oscilloscopes; torque motors; the aluminum uled for mid-1997. (5490). alloy 2024-T3, together with protective coat- Raj Chengappa, India Today, 6/30/95, pp. 128-129; in FBIS-TAC-95-014-L, 6/30/95 (5407). ings; ceramic chip capacitors; an FM sig- 7/24/95 nal generator; function generators; a video 7/95* ISRO conducts a successful 200-second test- imaging module; software and equipment India’s Pilotless Target Aircraft (PTA) has a fire of an indigenously produced liquid fuel for designing optical systems; gas field ef- 3 m wingspan, a 5.93 m fuselage, and a engine—developed by LPSC for the GSLV— fect transistors and bare semiconductor maximum speed of 0.8 Mach. The drone at Mahendragiri in Tamil Nadu. The test chips; and gear head DC motors with weighs 630 kg with two towed bodies and evaluates the performance of the “ silica-phe- slewing ring bearings. nolic throat of the engine nozzle” that is

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 169 Missile Developments designed to withstand temperatures of 1,300 phase, which will involve the manufacture source, the project includes indigenous pro- degrees centigrade during launch. Accord- of five missiles, will cost an additional $16.6 duction of carbon-carbon materials with ing to LPSC Director Dr. G. Madhaven million. primary dependence on technology transfer Nair, it is the first time the 60-ton engine Farhan Bokhari and Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense and “concurrent engineering of foreign-de- has been subjected to a 200 second test-fire. News, 8/28/95, pp. 1, 20 (5405). veloped parts.” The DRDO project will fo- Indian Prime Minister Narasimha Rao com- cus on capabilities and * mends the chairman of the Indian Space 8/3/95 defensive arms designed to “deflect and de- Commission Dr. K. Kasturirangan for the India’s 150 km- and 250 km-range Prithvi stroy incoming missiles.” successful indigenous development of liq- missiles will be deployed with the Indian Vivek Raghuvanshi, Space News, 9/4/95, p. 9 uid propulsion systems. Meanwhile, India’s Army. Both versions are liquid-fueled and (5410). PSLV-D3 is reportedly being prepared for are capable of delivering 1,000 kg and 500 * its next flight and is almost ready for launch. kg warheads respectively. 8/21/95 Space News, 8/7/95-8/13/95, p. 16 (5416). S.K. The Asian Age (Delhi), 8/3/95, p. 13; in FBIS-TAC- India’s four-stage, solid-fuel, Augmented Seshachandrika, All India Radio Network (Delhi), 95-016-L, 8/3/95 (5327). SLV (ASLV), and its solid/liquid-fuel, four- 7/26/95; in FBIS-NES-95-144, 7/26/95 (5416). All stage Polar SLV PSLV, enter the commer- India Radio Network (Delhi), 7/25/95; in FBIS- 8/22/95 cial space launch market. NES-95-144, 7/25/95 (5416). Doordarshan Tele- Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto vision Network (Delhi), 8/3/95; in FBIS-NES-95- Aviation Week and Space Technology, 8/21/95, p. 153, 8/3/95 (5416). asks Western nations to pressure India to S6 (5426). stop Prithvi and Agni development; Bhutto 7/25/95* believes the missiles constitute a nuclear 8/27/95 India initiates full-scale Prithvi production threat to the region. Pakistani President Farooq Ahmad Khan Farhan Bokhari and Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense Leghari tells U.S. Senators Hank Brown and and the Army asks the Ministry of Defence News, 8/28/95, pp. 1, 20 (5405). for 100 of the missiles. Arlen Specter that India’s Prithvi missile is Jang (Rawalpindi), 7/25/95, p. 10; in FBIS-NES- “Pakistan specific.” Leghari adds that India’s 95-145, 7/25/95 (5324). 8/24/95 Prithvi production and its Agni missile de- A report from India’s Parliamentary Stand- velopment program have precipitated a re- 7/28/95* ing Committee on Defence asserts that In- gional arms race. According to an editorial in Pakistan’s Jang, dia must continue its missile program due The Muslim (Islamabad), 8/28/95, p. 1; in FBIS- India is in the final stages of manufacturing to China’s indigenous missile improvements NES-95-167, 8/28/95 (5413). and testing the Surya ICBM, which is re- and to Beijing’s assistance to Pakistan in the ported to have a range of between 12,000 missile area. The report says the Prithvi 8/29/95 and 20,000 km. missile has been developed and is ready to The DRDO will cut 618 “small and medium Jang (Rawalpindi), 7/28/95, p. 3; in FBIS-TAC- be incorporated into the military. India’s projects” in order to focus on more impor- 95-004, 7/28/95 (5403). development of the , , and tant weapons-related projects, including its Agni missiles should reportedly be finished missile program. An Indian Defense Min- 8/95* by 1995-96. The committee also hopes that istry official says the DRDO will remain India’s Defence Research and Development India’s Integrated Guided Missile Develop- responsible for the integrated missile pro- Organization (DRDO) modifies a road-mo- ment Progam will develop “high-caliber” gram and the integrated electronic warfare bile BMP-2 infantry combat vehicle to trans- missile technology in the near future. Ac- project. DRDO seeks a 191 Rs crore in- port and launch three Akash SAMs. The cording to the report, MTCR restrictions crease from its 1994-1995 budget of Rs 1185 BMP-2 has a rotatable launcher with the have promoted India’s self-reliance in mis- crore to finance, among other items, “the Akash SAM mounted in the ready-to-launch sile production, and therefore New Delhi induction” of Prithvi and Trishul missiles. position. The Akash’s “multi-function 3D no longer depends on other countries for its Business Standard (Delhi), 8/29/95, p. 2; in FBIS- phased array radar” and its missile command missile technology. TAC-95-005, 8/29/95 (5388). post vehicle are also fitted on the modified Dainik Jagran (Delhi), 9/4/95, p. 11; in FBIS-NES- BMP-2 chassis. 95-176, 9/4/95 (5420). Farhan Bokhari and Vivek 8/29/95 Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 8/28/95, pp. 1, 20 Jane’s Intelligence Review Pointer, 8/95, p. 5 (5415). Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto (5405). says that India’s missile production program must be restricted because it threatens Pa- Early 8/95 8/24/95 kistan and the region as a whole. Bhutto Indian Defence Minister Achutan Nambiar The Indian Parliament’s Standing Commit- announces that, depending on strategic cir- states that although India’s missile program tee on Defence states that the $45.3 million is “Pakistan-specific,” it also poses a nuclear cumstances, the Agni IRBM may be de- Integrated Electronic Warfare Program ployed with the Indian military. According threat to Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, (IEWP) and the Samyukta electronic war- and . to DRDO sources, the Agni test program fare program will be united and managed has cost $11.6 million to date. The next Reuter, 8/29/95; in Executive News Service, 8/29/ by the DRDO. According to a government 95 (5324).

170 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments

Early 9/95 halted earlier in 1995 under U.S. pressure INDIA WITH ISRAEL The Indian Cabinet approves a Ministry of to do so. Military sources in New Delhi Defence sponsored plan creating a Defence say that, to date, the Indian Army has taken 8/94 Exports Board to boost international sales delivery of 18 to 20 Prithvis. The DRDO An Indian Army team tests the Hunter and of indigenously manufactured weapons. has developed a simulator advanced enough Seeker RPVs in Israel; the team is report- Administration of the new board will be to train Prithvi operators in the 333rd mis- edly satisifed with the vehicle’s performance. modeled on the Antrix Corporation of Ban- sile regiment to manage “in-flight emergen- Pravin Sawhney, The Asian Age (Delhi), 7/4/95, p. galore, the commercial division of ISRO. cies.” According to a DRDO official, the 1; in FBIS-NES-95-135, 7/4/95 (5494). According to government sources, a direc- Prithvi will not be deployed with the In- tor for the new board will be appointed by dian Air Force until its deployment with 3/95 the end of 1995. The Indian Cabinet is still the army is complete. Israeli Aircraft Industries (IAI) signs a $50 considering the scope of the board’s author- Rahul Bedi, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 10/7/95, p. 17 million contract with the ity. Brigadier Jasjit Singh, an “Indian Army (5399). to supply the Harpy anti-radiation drone. acquisition official,” says the Defence Ex- Flight International, 7/19/95-7/25/95, p. 14 (5270). 10/11/95* port Board will sell weapons and technol- ogy produced by the DRDO, state-owned India plans to launch the indigenously pro- Early 7/95 defense manufacturers, and ordnance facto- duced IRS-P3 satellite using the PSLV in A high-level Indian delegation, including ries. 1995. The 930 kg satellite will be launched Defence Secretary Achutan Nambiar, visits Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 10/16/95, p. 42 from the Shriharikota launch site on the Israel to discuss the final details of a tech- (5489). PSLV’s third development flight. nology transfer package. The package in- Flight International, 10/11/95-10/17/95, p. 24 cludes IAI’s “reconnaissance and anti-radia- Early 9/95 (5338). tion” UAVs, including the Searcher UAV that According to the Indian Defence Ministry, incorporates an “advanced day/night optronic 10/15/95* Delhi’s continuation of the Agni missile .” project is essential in view of Beijing’s mis- According to defense sources, the assimila- Vivek Raghuvanshi and Michael J. Witt, Defense sile program and China’s missile-related tion of the Prithvi SRBM into the Indian News, 7/10/95, pp. 3, 28 (5494). Flight Interna- tional, 7/19/95-7/25/95, p. 14 (5270). assistance to Pakistan. The Indian govern- Army is proceeding well. The DRDO is also developing a longer-range Prithvi mis- ment is reportedly evaluating its future 7/3/95 defense requirement for the Agni missile, sile that can be fitted on-board ships and A DRDO official states that the Indian De- following the successful test of the Agni-03 other moving platforms. The modified fence Ministry will buy approximately 32 re-entry vehicle. Prithvi might be deployed with India’s Air Dainik Jagran (Delhi), 9/4/95, p. 11; in FBIS-NES- Force and Navy. Searcher UAVs and two related ground con- 95-176, 9/4/95 (5420). All India Radio Network (Delhi), 10/15/95; in FBIS- trol systems from Israel. India is report- NES-95-199, 10/15/95 (5328). edly seeking to acquire the Searcher UAVs 9/11/95* because they are designed to conduct real- 10/23/95* India’s long-term defense export plans are time surveillance over enemy territory and reported to include the future sale of its According to defense and industry sources, could be used to ensure the optimum per- medium-range Akash and Trishul missiles, a “radar-absorbent coating” developed for formance of Prithvi missiles. The equip- and the Rajendra radar. India’s will also be used in ment—estimated to be worth approximately Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 9/11/95-9/17/ its missile and programs. The $30 million—could be transferred to India by 95, p. 6 (5337). coating was developed by the DRDO’s Com- 1998 if an agreement is reached soon. The posite Material Research Laboratory in official says the technology transfer will al- 9/27/95 Hyderabad and has already been applied to low India to indigenously produce a ver- Pakistani Foreign Minister Sardar Aseff operational aircraft. sion of the UAV. India is also reportely seek- Ahmad Ali tells the U.N. General Assem- Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 10/23/95-10/ ing Israeli help for DRDO’s Falcon remotely 29/95, pp. 1, 44 (5331). bly that India’s missile stockpile and naval piloted vehicle (RPV), re-named the strength are a source of great anxiety for Nishant, which has failed to meet the In- INDIA WITH: Pakistan. dian Army’s technical requirements. The Brazil, Israel, and PRC, 164 Reuter, 9/27/95; in Executive News Service, 9/27/ UAV package under negotiation was pre- 95 (5398). Germany, 167 ceded by an Indian contract to purchase the Harpy anti-radiation drone from IAI. Ac- 10/7/95* cording to Indian sources, the approximately According to a DRDO official, Hyderabad’s $50 million Harpy contract includes 16 of Bharat Dynamics Limited is again produc- the 2.5 meter-long, -wing shaped ing the Prithvi missile; the program was

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 171 Missile Developments drones. The Harpy has a 100 kg takeoff is scheduled for launch in 1997. INDIA WITH UNITED STATES weight and is fitted on-board a mobile Flight International , 7/26/95-8/1/95, p. 20 (5636). launcher. 1/95* Vivek Raghuvanshi and Michael J. Witt, Defense 8/2/95 A State Department official says the U.S. News, 7/10/95, pp. 3, 28 (5494). Pravin Sawhney, Aleksandr Belikov, deputy head of the Rus- The Asian Age (Delhi), 7/4/95, p. 1; in FBIS-NES- recently sold ring laser gyroscopes to India 95-135, 7/4/95 (5494). Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/ sian Foreign Economic Relations Ministry’s for use on its fighter aircraft but adds that 30/95, p. 17 (5494). Asia Department, announces that Russia will the instruments cannot easily be adapted for not sell missile technologies to India but use in missile programs. INDIA WITH: will instead supply ISRO with several cryo- Risk Report, 1/95-2/95, pp. 3-9, (5488). MTCR, 181 genic boosters for its SLVs. Belikov says the majority of India’s imports from Russia Spring 1995 will be military-related in 1995-1996. INDIA WITH PAKISTAN AND A U.S. federal court convicts Fiber Materi- Aleksandr Korzun, Igor Porshnev, and Yevgeniy als Inc.’s Chief Executive Officer Walter UNITED STATES Terekhov, Interfax (Moscow), 8/2/95; in FBIS-SOV- 95-149, 8/2/95 (5636). Lachman and President Maurice H. Subilia 7/31/95 for transfer of a hot isostatic press control India’s Minister for External Affairs Pranab 8/3/95 panel to India’s DRDO; the press is used in Mukherjee voices concern over the U.S. Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee the production of the Agni missile. To cir- proposal to transfer 28 Harpoon SSMs and arrives in Russia for a three-day visit. Ac- cumvent U.S. export laws, Lachman and three P-3C anti-submarine aircraft to Paki- cording to Yuriy Kotov, director of the Rus- Subilia arranged to manufacture the isos- stan. sian Foreign Ministry’s Third Asian Depart- tatic press in Europe and to have it subse- Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 8/7/95-8/13/95, ment, the trip is designed only to “compare quently shipped to India, along with the U.S. p. 12 (5329). notes on the whole range of bilateral and personnel to assemble it. Both Lachman international problems.” and Subilia are found guilty of violating the * 9/95 Vladimir Abarinov, Segodnya (Moscow), 8/4/95, Export Administration Act and are sched- A U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament p. 9; in FBIS-SOV-95-152, 8/4/95 (5636). uled to be sentenced on 10/17/95. Accord- Agency (ACDA) report criticizes the “un- ing to Michael Schneider, an associate de- guarded” ballistic missile and nuclear pro- Early 9/95 fending the executives, the DRDO pledged grams of both India and Pakistan. The re- Indian Defence Secretary Achutan Nambiar to use the press to produce biomedical pros- port warns that the programs contribute to is reportedly unable to secure acquisition thetics and brake-linings for commerical the chances of nuclear weapons being used of S-300 antiaircraft systems, and other de- aircraft. According to a senior U.S. offi- in any future conflict on the Subcontinent fense equipment, from Russia. cial, the isostatic press was designed spe- and asserts that the U.S. is resolved to stop Jason Glashow and Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense cifically for manufacturing weapons, and its the transfer of missiles and nuclear weapon- News, 9/18/95-9/24/95, p. 6 (5397). export was restricted for reasons of national related technology to India and Pakistan. security. The MTCR restricts the transfer Asian Defence Journal, 9/9/5 (5455). INDIA WITH UNITED KINGDOM of isostatic presses that can function at tem- peratures of at least 600 degrees centigrade INDIA WITH PRC 9/7/95 and that have an internal diameter of 10 Kishore Banerjee, vice president for liaison inches or greater. Presses of this type are Mid-8/95 of India’s Nippon Denro Ispat Ltd. (NDIL), deemed suitable for producing missile bod- During talks between China and India con- says that NDIL and the U.K.’s GEC- ies, nozzles, and nose cones. cerning maintenance of peace on the Indo- Marconi are considering the establishment Risk Report, 10/95, pp. 10-11 (5487). The Export Chinese border, India raises the issue of of a “defense electronic equipment facility” Practitioner, 7/31/95, p. 14 (5322). Chinese sales of M-11 SSMs to Pakistan. in India. GEC-Marconi reportedly wants 8/3/95* China responds that its arms transfers to to cooperate with NDIL in the joint devel- Pakistan have been small in number. opment of , radar, guided weapons, Under U.S. pressure, India scraps plans to A.J. Philip, All India Radio Network (Delhi), 8/21/ fire control systems, electronic warfare sys- develop a 1,000 km-range, solid-fuel Prithvi 95; in FBIS-NES-95-162, 8/21/95 (5293). tems, display technology, and systems inte- missile capable of delivering a 500 kg war- gration. head. The Indian Air Force requested the INDIA WITH RUSSIA Michael Sperling, Defense News, 9/11/95-9/17/95, 1,000 km-range Prithvi in 1991 to obtain a p. 44 (5326). conventional missile capable of hitting tar- 7/95* gets in China. India and Russia plan to jointly develop a The Asian Age (Delhi), 8/3/95, p. 13; in FBIS-TAC- 95-016-L, 8/3/95 (5327). “multi-purpose spacecraft” that will incor- porate a -ray telescope. The system

172 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments

11/1/95* field in East Sudan. Al-’tasim says this IRAN WITH NORTH KOREA AND India’s Bangalore-based National Aerospace indicates Sudan’s intention to target all coun- SOUTH KOREA Laboratories (NAL) is given a $130,000 tries around the Red Sea with its naval and contract by the U.S.’s to study “air- air forces. 6/24/95 craft damage tolerance.” NAL has an ISRO- MENA (Cairo), 10/23/95; FBIS-NES-95-205, 10/ 23/95 (5475). The Korea Trade Promotion Corporation built aerospace establishment and a “sci- (KOTRA) says it mistakenly reported Iran’s entific computing division” that focuses on having received missiles from North Korea IRAN WITH LIBYA “computational fluid dynamics, - in exchange for oil. The story was reported ized flight-control systems, and structural 5/2/95 in the Korea Times a week earlier. KOTRA analysis.” The contract is the first of its kind spokesman Cho Tae-hyong expresses the According to Israeli sources, Libya assisted awarded to an Indian firm. hope that this error would not adversely Iran in acquiring conventional warhead tech- Flight International, 11/1/95-11/7/95, p. 24 (5493). affect the longstanding good relations be- nology to upgrade its No-dong-1 missiles tween Iran and South Korea. to four times the explosive power of Scud- Korea Times (Seoul), 7/25/95, p. 8; in FBIS-EAS- Bs. 95-142, 7/25/95 (5284). IRAN Adel Darwish, Independent (London), 5/2/95, p. 10; FBIS-TAC-95-003, 5/2/95 (5271). IRAN WITH PRC

IRAN WITH NORTH KOREA 7/3/95* INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS 5/2/95 According to U.S. intelligence reports, China has exported sophisticated missile According to an Israeli intelligence report, 10/95 guidance systems and other equipment to North Korea has sent a dozen or more No- According to the International Institute of Iran. The equipment could enable Iran to dong-1 missiles to Iran. Also referred to as Strategic Studies (IISS), Iran’s 300-km range improve the accuracy of its Scud missiles the Scud-D, the No-dong-1 is said to have a SSMs can target the cities of Al Jubayl in and to produce other missiles. Saudi Arabia and San’a in Yemen. The IISS range of 1,500 km (900 miles) and could Evan S. Medeiros, Arms Control Today, 7/95-8/95, reports that these missiles can also target target almost all of Israel from Iran. In ad- p. 24 (5282). sites in Bahrain, Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, dition, North Korea has sold over 200 Scud- and Muscat. B missiles to Iran. 7/7/95* The Military Balance 1995-1996, 10/95, pp. 281- Adel Darwish, Independent (London), 5/2/95, p. China plans to supply Iran with nuclear re- 10; FBIS-TAC-95-003, 5/2/95 (5271). 285 (5569). actors, scientific and technical training, ex- 5/29/95-6/2/95 pertise, and components for missile produc- 10/16/95 tion. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says Iran is manu- During a visit to Iran by North Korean For- Aluf Ben, Ha’aretz (Tel Aviv), 7/7/95, p. B1; in facturing “advanced electronic warfare equip- eign Minister Kim Young-nam, Iran report- FBIS-NES-95-133, 7/7/95 (5277). ment.” This claim was prompted either by edly proposes to pay in oil for $300 million U.S. military activity in the Middle East or worth of Scud missiles previously purchased IRAN WITH UNITED STATES by problems which the U.S. ban on dual- from the DPRK. use technology trade with Iran might be Iran Brief, 8/1/95, p. 6 (5531). 1/95* causing Tehran. The U.S. Bureau of Export Administration 8/95 Jane’s Defence Weekly, 10/28/95, p. 19 (5570). receives reports regarding several Iranian According to Israeli sources, before it re- companies seeking to purchase sensitive IRAN WITH: cently halted its development efforts, North technology from U.S. firms. Belarus, 161 Korea intended to export the 1,000+ km- Risk Report, 1/95-2/95 (5625). Bosnia and Russia, 162 range (540 nm) No-dong to Iran and may have already shipped some No-dong tech- nology. North Korea is now helping Iran IRAN WITH IRAQ AND SUDAN build a production facility for Scud-B and Scud-C missiles. 10/95 Flight International, 8/30/95-9/5/95, p. 4 (5272). Muhammed al-Mu’tasim, the Sudanese Democratic Opposition Party’s official in charge of information, claims that Iranian and Iraqi engineers, including some missile experts, are helping to upgrade an old air-

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 173 Missile Developments

7/24/95 8/23/95 U.N. spokesman Tim Trevan says Iraq has Ambassador Ekeus says that all of Iraq’s IRAQ destroyed five pieces of equipment which it long-range missiles have been accounted for once employed in the manufacture of banned and that Baghdad no longer poses a threat missiles engines. to its neighbors in this respect. Reuter, 7/24/95; in Executive News Service, 7/24/ Jordan Times (Amman), 8/24/95, pp. 1, 7; in FBIS- INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS 95 (5659). NES-95-164, 8/24/95 (5663).

6/18/95* 7/29/95* 8/25/95 The Iraqi News Agency (INA) claims that The U.S. has satellite photographs indicat- Ambassador Ekeus tells the Security Coun- UNSCOM has destroyed 140 Scud and Al- ing that Iraq has rebuilt its al-Kindi missile cil that Iraq put three types of biological Hussein missiles, 18 mobile launchers, 40 research and development facility since the agent into approximately 200 missile war- fixed launchers, 15 buildings, and 150 pieces Gulf War of 1991. heads and bombs prior to the Gulf War of of equipment. INA also says that UNSCOM James Bruce, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 7/29/95, p. 1991. In 12/90, these weapons were de- 13 (5431). has destroyed 75 ballistic missiles armed ployed to air bases and a missile site. Iraq also claims to have put botulinum toxin and with chemical warheads. Mid-8/95 Leon Barkho, Reuter, 6/18/95; in Executive News anthrax bacteria into 25 warheads, which Service, 6/18/95 (5577). Two senior Iraqi defectors allege that were capable of being deployed aboard its Baghdad intentionally misled U.N. inspec- medium-range Al-Hussein missiles. Accord- Early 7/95 tors regarding the number of SS-1 ‘Scud’ ing to Liberation of Paris, Iraq’s 12/90 ar- UNSCOM head Rolf Ekeus informs the SRBMs which Iraq retained after the Gulf senal of biological weapons included 50 Security Council that Iraq has procured War of 1991. The two defectors, Iraqi mili- bombs and 12 warheads filled with anthrax machinery for manufacturing U.N.-prohib- tary-industries minister General Hussein culture media, along with 100 bombs and ited missile systems. Kamel Hassan and his brother Lieutenant 50 warheads loaded with botulism culture Barbara Crossette, New York Times, 7/9/95, p. 7 Colonel Saddam Kamel Hassan, were both media. Ekeus also reports that Iraq has (5309). involved in Baghdad’s efforts to acquire a admitted to developing drones/unmanned long-range ballistic missile capability prior aircraft to deliver biological agents. 7/7/95 to their departure from Iraq on 8/8/95. R. Jeffrey Smith, Washington Post, 8/26/95; in Ex- Nizar Hamdoon, Iraq’s representative to the Recent estimates say Iraq may be hiding ecutive News Service, 8/26/95 (5428). Luc U.N., requests that the Security Council between five and 13 mobile Scud launch- Lampriere, Liberation (Paris), 8/29/95, p. 7; in delay the destruction of five pieces of ma- ers, and a number of missiles, underground. FBIS-NES-95-168, 8/29/95 (5428). chinery that could be used to manufacture Flight International, 8/23/95-8/29/95, p. 16 (5305). * ballistic missiles. The letter indicates that 8/26/95 Baghdad wants to postpone the destruction 8/18/95 According to Harvard University’s Matthew until the issue of Iraq’s biological weapons On Israel Television’s Channel 1, an un- Meselson, Iraq approached two European is resolved. The machinery has already been named leader of the Iraqi opposition exiled firms in the late 1980s to design a warhead disabled and disassembled, but has yet to in London claims that Baghdad retains 37 with a restraining parachute for its Al- be destroyed. operational Scud missiles. The unnamed Hussein missile. Meselson says that for the Barbara Crossette, New York Times, 7/9/95, p. 7 individual predicts that, if his regime col- effective delivery of anthrax particles ca- (5309). lapses, will launch these pable of killing people and animals over an missiles against Israel in a “farewell barage.” area of a few miles, a slow moving delivery 7/19/95 Ma’ariv (Tel Aviv), 8/20/95, pp. 1, 2; in FBIS- vehicle is required. The Security Council reports that Iraq has NES-95-162, 8/20/95 (5660). Barbara Crossette, New York Times, 8/23/95, pp. agreed to destroy five pieces of machinery A1, A6 (5665). used to manufacture banned missile engines. 8/19/95 New York Times, 7/20/95, p. A4 (5659). Iraq provides UNSCOM with fresh infor- 9/95 mation on its ballistic missile program. Iraq tells UNSCOM that it had previously 7/20/95 According to Ambassador Rolf Ekeus, the produced its own Scud missile engines According to U.N. officials, Iraq begins Special Commission is evaluating the new through reverse-engineering. Before the destroying the five machine tools at an un- data. revelation, it was widely believed that the disclosed location. Leon Barkho, Washington Times, 8/20/95, p. A8 only Scud engines available to Iraq had been James Bruce, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 7/29/95, p. (5568). Soviet-supplied. Prior to the 1990-1991 13 (5431). Gulf crisis, Iraq was known to be capable of manufacturing its own Scud airframes. During the Gulf War, these poorly built air-

174 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments frames frequently broke apart upon descent. IRAQ WITH: to support its Ibn al-Haytham missile re- Allan George, Flight International, 9/20/95-9/26/ France, 166 search laboratory near Baghdad and two 95, p. 19 (5430). Germany, 168 similar sites, but asserts the materials were Iran and Sudan, 173 intended for the manufacture of short-range 9/95 missiles only, which is permitted under the Charles Duelfer, deputy executive chairman U.N. embargo. According to U.N. officials, IRAQ WITH LIBYA of UNSCOM, says that Baghdad recently these materials could be utilized in the pro- surrendered documents revealing that Iraq duction of both short- and medium-range 1/95 previously manufactured Scud rocket mo- missiles. According to the head of the Stra- tors and flight-tested chemical warheads. Saddam Hussein and Muammar Qadhdhafi tegic Investigations Office of the U.S. Cus- Duelfer says Iraq employed a live chemical agree on a technical exchange to develop a toms Service Connie Fenchel, Iraq is agent in one of the flight tests, but he did long-range missile at a secret Libyan loca- perservering in, and possibly intensifying, not reveal the location of the test-site. Ac- tion. Libya is responsible for acquiring its efforts to acquire missile-related technol- cording to Duelfer, the new data will influ- Western technology, for paying wages, and ogy which is embargoed by the U.N. ence UNSCOM’s accounting for Iraq’s Scud for providing “whatever” it has already R. Jeffrey Smith, Washington Post, 10/14/95, pp. missile warheads. achieved with Iran in the missile develop- A1, A20 (5423). Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/30/95, p. 4 (5567). ment field. Libya’s missile production plans apparently include the development of a 500 IRAQ WITH UKRAINE 10/11/95 km-range missile (with Iranian assistance) Ambassador Ekeus submits his semi-annual and a 1,000 km-range missile. Progress on 10/13/95 report to the Security Council. Ekeus ac- these systems has been hampered by the A U.N. official accuses Iraq of covertly cuses Baghdad of deceiving his inspectors U.N. embargo and by technical problems. purchasing missile-related technology from regarding the actual progress which Iraq had Thus, has turned to Baghdad for Ukraine. made on its ballistic missiles and chemical assistance; Iraq has now provided Libya with R. Jeffrey Smith, Washington Post, 10/14/95, pp. and biological weapons. According to the information on its Al-Hussein and Badr A1, A20 (5423). report, Iraq had conducted “chemical mis- ballistic missiles. sile warhead flight tests,” had indigenously Guido Olimpio, La Repubblica (Rome), 5/5/95, p. manufactured Scud missile engines, and had 13; in FBIS-TAC-95-003, 5/5/95 (5307). attempted to deploy a nuclear device in ISRAEL 1990. According to Ekeus, Iraq said in 1992 IRAQ WITH RUSSIA that it had destroyed 89 Scud/ * missiles, although in fact only 83 were de- 9/95 stroyed. According to Ekeus, Iraq revises Russia has previously exported the 150-km INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS its earlier claim to have destroyed 100 bac- range Tupolev Reys (Voyager) UAV to Iraq. teriological and chemical warheads for the IDR Despatches, 9/95, p. 3 (5453). 1/95 Al-Hussein missile to 75. UNSCOM also Rubin, the chief of the Israeli Missile reports that Iraq has again begun to manu- 10/13/95 Defense Office, says that the Arrow-2 ATBM facture components for missile engines. U.N. and U.S. officials accuse Iraq of co- will be tested six times during the next 18 According to the Special Commission, vertly purchasing missile components from months. Baghdad had deployed 191 bacteriological Russia, via a sophisticated network of pur- James Bruce, Jane’s Intelligence Review, 8/95, pp. 352-354 (5615). and chemical weapons to two air bases in chasing agents and dummy companies. Senior U.S. officials express concern over Iraq: 25 warheads for the Al-Hussein mis- 4/5/95 sile and 166 bombs for aircraft delivery. The Russia’s sale of missile-related items to Iraq, Israel uses its Shavit SLV to launch the Ofeq- U.N. says 113 of these weapons contained in an apparent bid by Moscow to re-initiate 3 imaging satellite. According to Israeli botulin, 60 were armed with anthrax, and its arms provider relationship with Baghdad. press reports, the Shavit incorporates a new, 18 carried aflatoxin. Iraq is accused of obtaining accelerometers, New York Times, 10/14/95, p. 5 (5433). Lyndsay gyroscopes, and special metals. UNSCOM small 674 lb thrust , which Griffiths, Reuter, 10/11/95; in Executive News Ser- head Rolf Ekeus asserts that Baghdad has was produced by Israeli Aircraft Industries vice, 10/13/95 (5433). Evelyn Leopold, Washing- also placed orders for other missile-related (IAI). The Shavit is based on Israel’s Jeri- ton Post, 10/12/95; in Executive News Service, 10/ cho ballistic missile. TAAS (formerly Is- 12/95 (5433). Evelyn Leopold, Washington Times, technologies, supplies, and material. U.N. 10/12/95, p. A17 (5566). UPI, 10/13/95; in Ex- officials assert that Iraq does not appear to rael Military Industries) manufactures the ecutive News Service, 10/13/95 (5578). Mario R. have assembled any new Scud missiles, but Shavit’s first two solid rocket motors, while Dedreichs, Stern (Hamburg), 10/12/95, pp. 230- has stockpiled and concealed materials, pos- Rafael manufactures the titanium-skinned, 232; in FBIS-NES-95-198, 10/12/95 (5435). sibly to manufacture them in the future. Iraq two-ton, third-stage motor. admits to obtaining some of the materials Gerald M. Steinberg, International Defense Review,

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 175 Missile Developments

10/95, pp. 20-23 (5575). James Bruce, Jane’s In- procure or deploy the Arrow anti-missile The 150 km-range Searcher has a wing span telligence Review, 8/95, pp. 352-354 (5615). interceptor in large quantities. The Israeli of 7.2 m, and an external SACHS 26 kW Ministry of Defense has allocated approxi- (35 hp) engine; IAI is now considering the * 6/95 mately $1.2 billion, over the next five years, “more powerful” UEL rotary engine for the Israel is reportedly interested in obtaining to purchase and deploy Arrow interceptors, Searcher. Searcher missions are typically technology to improve the accuracy of its missile launchers, fire control radars, and conducted at altitudes of between 7,000 and ballistic missile. According to the the associated battle management and com- 10,000 ft above the target area. Israel’s U.S. Department of Defense’s Militarily mand systems. defense forces acquired the Searcher UAV Critical Technology List (MCTL) of 1992, Sharone Parnes, Defense News, 7/3/95-7/9/95, p. 8 to replace the UAV in 1992. Israel lacks several unique devices for fab- (5269). Arie Egozi, Flight International, 10/25/95-10/31/ ricating and inspecting components for gy- 95, p. 27 (5396). roscopes and integrated sensor systems and 7/30/95 lacks the means to produce high-precision Israel conducts its first launch of the Ar- ISRAEL WITH: bearings. row-2 ATBM to test the missile’s propul- Brazil, India and PRC, 164 Risk Report, 6/95, p. 9 (5422). sion, guidance and sensor systems and to India, 171 evaluate its ground launch capability. The 6/95 Arrow-2 reaches an altitude in excess of 20 ISRAEL WITH PRC Israel’s Silver Arrow unveils its Darter and km and fulfills its target acquisition and Colibri UAVs at the . The tracking functions as planned; the launch 10/4/95* Darter UAV is 3.97 m long, has a wingspan was not designed to test the Arrow-2’s in- Israel’s TAAS is working on a stand-off of 4 m, a takeoff weight of 100 kg, a top terception capabilities and will be followed cruise missile variant of Delilah for the speed of 100 kt, and a maximum operational by another test later in 1995. The Arrow- Chinese Air Force. radius of 50 m. The 2.63 m long Colibri 2 is designed to have a range of 11 km, an Flight International, 10/4/95-10/10/95, p. 28 UAV is intended primarily as a pilot train- intercept altitude of 40 km, and a speed of (5574). ing vehicle. The Colibri has a wingspan of Mach 9. According to IAI’s Director Gen- either 2.98 m or 3.85 m, and has a takeoff eral Moshe Keret, the new interceptor will ISRAEL WITH SOUTH KOREA weight of 36 kg. Silver Arrow also exhibits be operational in two years. Arrow-2 will two of its UAVs. The Hermes 450 have capabilities similar to the ERINT and 8/27/95-8/29/95 is 10 m in length, weighs 450 kg, and uses THAAD ATBM systems when fully opera- South Korean Defense Minister Lee Yang- a 76 hp engine. The improved Hermes 750 tional. Four Arrow-2 flights are planned ho meets with Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin uses a 104 hp engine, has a 750 kg takeoff for 1996, including the first to involve the and Israeli defense industry leaders in Is- weight, and can remain airborne for over intercept of a missile target. rael to discuss possible procurement of Is- 30 hours at 200 km from base. Alon Pinkas, Jerusalem Post (Jerusalem), 7/31/95; raeli defense technologies, including mis- IDR Despatches, 7/95, p. 2 (5312). in FBIS-NES-95-146, 7/31/95 (5254). Jane’s De- fence Weekly, 8/5/95, p. 4 (5254). David Hughes, siles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). According to Gerald Steinberg of the BESA 6/25/95* Aviation Week and Space Technology, 8/7/95, p. 59 (5268). Jane’s Defence Weekly, 8/12/95, p. 23 Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan Israel’s Defense Ministry is financing the (5254). David Eshel, ASMZ (Frauenfeld), 7/95-8/ University, South Korea is also interested development of a UAV-launched anti-mis- 95, pp. 47-48; in FBIS-NES-95-173, 9/7/95 (5254). International Defense Review, 9/95, p.10 (5254). in Israeli early warning systems, advanced sile interceptor to engage Scud-type TBMs missile tracking, and ballistic missile de- in the boost phase. Firms developing UAVs 10/23/95 fense technologies. in Israel include Elbit Ltd. of Haifa, BTA Sharone Parnes, Defense News, 9/4/95-9/10/95, p. Automatic Piloting Systems Ltd of Hod Foreign Minister Shimon Peres declares that 10 (5528). Hasharon, and Malat Division of Israel Air- no missiles armed with warheads, exclud- ing those of Israel’s Defense Forces, will be craft Industries (IAI), Lod. IAI’s Heron ISRAEL WITH SYRIA UAV holds the world endurance record of permitted in the zones to be controlled by 51 hours and 21 minutes. IAI’s Washing- the Palestinian Authority. 8/95 Israel Television Channel 3 Network (Jerusalem), ton director Marvin Klemow says his com- 10/23/95; in FBIS-NES-95-205, 10/23/95 (5576). According to Israeli defense sources, the pany has displayed the ability to fly UAVs Arrow ATBM would be Israel’s only front- to an altitude of 30,000 ft. 10/25/95* line defense against a Syrian ballistic mis- Sharone Parnes, Defense News, 7/3/95-7/9/95, p. 8 sile attack, but the system would not be (5269). Israel’s 4.07 m long Searcher UAV has a maximum speed of 110 kt (200 km/h) and to engage all the missiles that can 6/25/95 a maximum take-off weight of 318 kg, ex- produce. cluding a 64 kg optical payload which can Channel 2 Television Network (Jerusalem), 8/30/ Major General Herzle Bodinger, commander 95; in FBIS-NES-95-169, 8/31/95 (5425). of the , says Israel will not be carried either internally or externally.

176 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments

control radar, and the fire control, launch capitalized on its test results and has steadily ISRAEL WITH THAILAND control, and battle management centers. improved the performance of the Arrow in- David Hughes, Aviation Week and Space Technol- terceptor missile.” 8/7/95* ogy, 8/7/95, p. 59 (5268). David Hughes, Aviation Week and Space Technol- ogy, 8/7/95, p. 59 (5268). Thailand considers purchasing Israel Air- 6/95* craft Industries’(IAI) Searcher UAV. Thai U.S. companies are forbidden to conduct Late 7/95 officials will visit IAI during the week of business with several Israeli space projects Israeli and U.S. defense officials gather in 8/7/95 to determine whether it meets pro- due to the Clinton administration’s policy Israel to prepare for a fly-out test of the curement requirements. Thai officials are of not supporting SLV development in non- Arrow-2 ATBM in early 8/95. skeptical about the status of Israel’s Searcher MTCR countries. According to a U.S. offi- Space News, 7/31/95-8/6/95, p. 2 (5306). and will not guarantee its purchase. cial, the administration would like Israel to Bangkok’s contract rules require that defense * join the MTCR, but it will first have to es- 8/21/95 systems procured from abroad must not be tablish a respectable record of MTCR guide- Israel plans to deploy the Barak anti-mis- prototypes and must be in use with the con- line implementation and sign the NPT or a sile system on board its three U.S.-supplied tracting company’s “home military,” thereby similar regional agreement. Under Supple- Sa’ar-5 -class missile boats by 1997. ensuring the supply of spare parts and sup- ment 6, Part 778 of the U.S. Commerce Sharone Parnes, Defense News, 8/21/95, pp.4, 28 port equipment. IAI Vice President for Department’s Export Administration Regu- (5308). Public Affairs Marvin Klemov asserts that lations (EAR), Israel is considered a coun- the Searcher is not a prototype and was in- 8/28/95* try of missile proliferation concern. U.S. corporated into Israel’s Defense Forces in companies are required to obtain export li- Israel plans to upgrade its Shavit-1 SLV into 7/92. censes if they know their exports will be a more advanced booster known as Next. Jason Glashow, Defense News, 8/7/95, pp. 4, 26 This enhancement will reportedly illustrate (5477). used in the design, development, manufac- ture, or use of Israeli missiles or rockets Israel’s ability to indigenously manufacture long-range missiles. Senior officials from ISRAEL WITH UNITED STATES that are capable of carrying a 500 kg pay- load to ranges of 300 km or more. Israel’s Ministry of Defense state that ex- Risk Report, 6/95, p. 8 (5500). ports of space technology with direct mili- 1/94 tary applications will not be authorized. The Clinton administration makes a policy 6/95* Sharone Parnes, Space News, 8/28/95-9/3/95, p. exception by allowing future imports into 18 (5426). Aviation Week and Space Technology, the U.S. of rocket technology from Israel’s Israel deploys the air-to-surface 8/21/95, p. S6 (5426). Shavit SLV program. stand-off missile, which has a 365 kg war- * Risk Report, 6/95, p. 8 (5500). head, a range of up to 80 km, and an accu- 10/4/95 racy which can be measured in centimeters. Israel’s TAAS will cooperate with the U.S.’s 11/94 The Popeye was jointly developed and is McDonnell-Douglas (MDC) to develop sev- Israel acquires a Cray J916 computer from co-produced by the U.S.’s Martin Marietta eral derivatives of the former’s Delilah stand- the U.S. The purchase ignites concern in and Israel’s Rafael. The longer-range and off decoy UAV. According to one source, some U.S. government agencies that it could lighter Popeye-2 standoff missile is currently the principal goal of this venture will be to be used to design missiles. The U.S. con- under development. manufacture stand-off weapon variants of tinues to control missile-related exports to Risk Report, 6/95, p. 8 (5498). Delilah. The joint venture reportedly in- Israel because of its failure to sign the NPT, cludes work on the anti-radiation, loitering 7/25/95 and due to its production of nuclear-capable Star-1 version of Delilah. MDC has ac- missiles. U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Acqui- quired joint production and marketing rights Risk Report, 6/95, p. 9 (5422). sition and Technology Paul G. Kaminski for Delilah and its derivatives. writes to Congressman Bob Livingston, Flight International, 10/4/95-10/10/95, p. 28 Summer 1995 Chairman of the House Appropriations (5574). Committee, to answer questions regarding Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and * the future viability of the Arrow program. 10/18/95 U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry The U.S. Navy considers purchase of the agree to a five-year program, as part of the Kaminski responds to doubts that Arrow will reach the production stage, due to $10 bil- TRW/IAI short-range Hunter UAV. A U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense Organization’s Navy flight test of the Hunter, originally (BMDO) theater missile defense initiative, lion development cost projections, by cit- ing both Israel’s commitment to the project scheduled for 10/95, was postponed until in which the U.S. will spend $33 million a early 1996 due to investigations into three year on Israel’s Arrow ATBM project. The and a classified cost estimate which predicts that production costs will fall below $10 Hunter testing accidents, the most recent of U.S. will pay for missile development, while which occurred on 8/23/95. Israel will finance development of the fire billion. Kaminski also states that “Israel has

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 177 Missile Developments

Flight International, 10/18/95-10/24/95, p. 18, armed with SSMs. According to Malaysian 6/95 (5497). Defense Minister Syed Hamid Albar, the The JDA forms a committee to develop a corvettes will arrive in 4/97 and will fulfill computer-aided acquisition and logistics 10/19/95 coastal defense roles. The two corvettes are support system (CALS) to make computer- Israel’s Channel 2 Television reports that part of a shipment originally manufactured ized information on defense equipment, in- U.S. Director of Central Intelligence John for Iraq but were not delivered in 1991 be- cluding the Patriot ATBM, available to Japa- Deutch and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak cause of the U.N. embargo. nese defense contractors. CALS is designed Rabin meet to discuss assessments of Iran’s UPI, 10/26/95; in Executive News Service, 10/26/ to reduce the time needed to develop and nuclear and SSM capabilities. Television 95 (5320). produce defense equipment, and to cut costs. Channel 2 also reports that Deutch is sched- The Patriot missile will be the first item uled to visit Arrow missile project facilities entered into CALS, which will be on-line on 10/20/95. JAPAN in 1996. Reuter, 10/19/95; in Executive News Service, 10/ Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Tokyo), 7/28/95, p. 11; in 19/95 (5572). FBIS-EAS-95-154, 7/28/95 (5257).

* 10/30/95 7/95 TRW is awaiting a Clinton administration INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS An official from the Ministry of Interna- policy decision which might allow the tional Trade and Industry (MITI) says that firm to use Israel’s Shavit SLV to launch 8/94 after two years of debate Japan will soon the U.S. Air Force Tri-Service Experi- An advisory group to the Japanese Prime adopt a catch-all export control clause. mental satellite. Minister asserts that Japan’s TMD program Under the clause, exporters will be required Space News, 10/30/95-11/05/95, p.2 (5573). should involve cooperation with the U.S. to inform the government if they suspect Mark Hewish, International Defense Review, 8/95, their products are destined for WMD uses. pp. 28-34 (5632). Japan’s Center for Information on Security ITALY Mid-1995 Trade Control (CISTEC) maintains the Chaser open-source database to supply Japa- A JDA white paper recommends a shift in nese companies with information on poten- the focus of Japan’s defense policy from tial buyers. Firms must contact CISTEC addressing a single Soviet threat to address- themselves to determine whether potential ITALY WITH: ing regional threats such as North Korea’s buyers are likely to use their exports for Brazil, 163 ballistic missile capability. WMD production. MITI also uses public France, 167 William Dawkins, Financial Times, 7/3/95, p. 5 (5439). source information from CISTEC to evalu- France, Germany, and United ate export license applications. Kingdom, 166 Mid-1995 Risk Report, 7/95-8/95, pp. 1, 9 (5560). France, Germany, and United The JDA contracts with Nissan and States, 167 Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) to develop 8/95 a side thruster controlled interceptor mis- Toru Ishikawa, managing director of ITALY WITH MALAYSIA sile. The agreement should help Japan Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. qualify for the Theater Missile Defense Ltd.’s (IHI) Aerospace Division, expresses 8/16/95 (TMD) initiative with the U.S. The side IHI’s interest in participating in missile de- Malaysian Defense Minister Datuk Syed thruster control system expels combustion fense projects. IHI has experience in the Hamid announces that the Royal Malaysian gas through about 100 openings on the side field of propulsion systems and composite Navy will buy two corvettes from the Ital- of the missile, which allows it to make com- materials. Wing (Tokyo), 8/16/95, p. 1; in FBIS-JST-95-058, ian shipyard Fincantieri. The corvettes are plex maneuvers to alter its flight path. The 8/16/95 (5339). equipped with Aerospatiale MM38 Exocet JDA commits 140 million yen for research SSMs. and development on the thruster drive tech- 8/14/95 New Straits Times (Kuala Lumpur), 8/16/95, p. 2; nology, and 272.7 million yen on airframe in FBIS-EAS-95-162 (5664). The JDA decides to proceed with the manu- movement controls, to Nissan and KHI re- facture of a new SAM to replace the Ground spectively. The JDA requests Nissan and Self Defense Force’s (GSDF) Hawk missile; 10/26/95 KHI to complete a prototype by the end of Malaysian government official Abdul Aziz cost estimates are 128.4 billion yen over 1995. seven years. The new intermediate-range Muhamad signs a contract with Corrado Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun (Tokyo), 6/13/95, p. 17; in Abntonini, chairman of Italy’s Fincantieri FBIS-JST-95-053, 6/13/95 (5340). SAM will fulfill TMD requirements and will Shipyard, for two “fast-missile corvettes” feature an improved guidance system capable

178 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments of tracking numerous targets simultaneously. speed”; and highly integrated command, JAPAN WITH: Mitsubishi Electric Corporation has been control and intelligence systems to aid de- Germany and United States, 168 conducting research and development on the cision-making. According to a JDA spokes- advanced SAM since FY 1989. The new man, Japan’s Ballistic Missile Defense Study JAPAN WITH SOUTH KOREA SAM will reportedly have capabilities that Office hopes to conduct these studies in surpass “improved Patriot missiles,” and will 1996. 9/22/95 be capable of intercepting low-flying cruise Naoaki Usui, Defense News, 9/11/95-9/17/95, p. 14 (5537). The defense ministers of Japan and South missiles. Korea agree to work more closely together Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun (Tokyo), 8/16/95, p. 7; in FBIS-JST-95-057, 8/16/95 (5341). Yomiuri 8/31/95 on military matters to counter the North Shimbun (Tokyo), 8/15/95, p. 1; in FBIS-EAS-95- The JDA presents a 450 million yen ($4.79 Korean nuclear threat. 159, 8/15/95 (5341). million) budget request to the Finance Min- Washington Times, 9/23/95, p. A9 (5375). istry for research and development in its 8/23/95 JAPAN WITH UNITED STATES TMD program. The program, to be man- Colonel Takeyuki Sakurai, commander of aged by the JDA’s Ballistic Missile Research the Japanese Air Defense Missile Guidance Office, will develop an anti-missile system 5/94 Squadron, stresses the need to acquire a capable of boost-phase interception. A fu- The U.S. Department of Defense proposes TMD system for defense against East Asian ture Japanese TMD system will probably four TMD options for Japan, ranging in theater missles. Sakurai recommends con- include a “new launching platform” and an price from $4.4 billion to $16.3 billion. The struction of a “multi-level” defense system “enhanced early warning system” which may options would all be deployed by 2004 or including ground- and sea-based assets ca- incorporate a network of Japanese-manufac- 2005 and are designed to address the threat pable of intercepting missiles at various tured reconnaissance and comput- posed by North Korea’s Nodong-1 and/or altitiudes. ers. China’s CSS-2 and CSS-5. The four op- Colonel Takeyuki Sakurai, Wing (Tokyo), 8/23/95, Naoaki Usui, Defense News, 8/21/95-8/27/95, p. 8 tions include various combinations of de- p. 8; in FBIS-JST-95-061, 8/23/95 (5447). (5480). stroyers equipped with Aegis and/or over- the-horizon radar, a Block IV-A version of 8/30/95 8/31/95 the Standard missile, PAC-3 Patriot missiles, The JDA submits a 14.3 billion yen ($147.4 Under the JDA’s FY 1996 budget proposal, AWACS, ground-based surveillance radars, million) budget request to the Finance Min- Japan’s TMD feasibility study—amounting to and Theater High Altitude Area Defense istry for development of a SAM system to 20 million yen in FY 1995—will continue (THAAD) systems. replace the Japanese Army’s U.S.-origin under the auspices of the Mid-Term Defense Naoaki Usui, Defense News, 8/21/95-8/27/95, p. 8 Hawk missiles. According to JDA officials, Buildup Program. (5480). development of the new SAM falls under Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun (Tokyo), 8/31/95, p. 16; the jurisdiction of the Technical Research FBIS-JST-95-065, 8/31/95 (5478). 11/94 and Development Institute. The new mis- Japan’s Mitsubishi signs an agreement with sile is scheduled for completion in 2003 9/19/95 the U.S.’s Lockheed Missiles and Space when it will be deployed to five regional Hirofumi Eguchi, vice-counselor for Tech- Company to cooperate in the TMD field. armies. nical Development of Japan’s Technical Re- Mark Hewish, International Defense Review, 8/95, Naoaki Usui, Defense News, 9/4/95, pp. 4, 36 search Development Institute (TRDI), lec- pp. 28-34 (5632). (5476). tures on the “interception of missiles pen- * etrating from high altitudes” at the 1995 1/95 Late 8/95 Asagumo Technical Seminar in Tokyo. The JDA’s Third Research Center in The JDA releases a report, “On Research According to Eguchi, TRDI has missile Tachikawa City is conducting joint research Concerning Ballistic Missile Defenses,” technologies on par with the U.S. and Eu- with U.S. engineers on “ducted rocket en- designed to convince the Japanese public of rope, although it needs to enhance its tech- gine (DRE)” propulsion systems. DREs use the need for missile defenses. According to nology to combat electromagnetic jamming. atmospheric oxygen to burn with the rocket’s the report, Japan’s ability to address the Eguchi adds that TRDI needs to develop an fuel in flight, rather than using a built-in threat posed by ballistic missiles is limited. anti-missile defense system to combat mis- oxygen supply. The Third Research Center The report’s findings prompt the JDA to call siles which enter from high altitudes and at and the U.S. Missile Command Research for several studies into relevant technolo- great speeds, and cruise missiles which fly Center began joint research on rocket pro- gies and systems including: satellite-linked at low altitudes. pulsion in 1992; testing is scheduled to be- sensor systems to detect and identify ballis- Asagumo (Tokyo), 9/28/95, p. 8; in FBIS-JST-95- gin at sites in both countries in FY 1996. tic missiles; a weapon system capable of 073, 9/28/95 (5612). Ryonosuke Kubota, Explosion (Tokyo), 1/95, pp. intercepting ballistic missiles at a “ very high 33-35; FBIS-JST-95-051, 8/3/95 (5445). Yoshio Oyumi, Securitarian (Tokyo), 6/95, pp. 46-47; in altitude and an extremely high relative FBIS-JST-95-051, 8/3/95 (5445).

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 179 Missile Developments

Early 7/95 LIBYA WITH: The Japanese Army signs a $55 million con- KUWAIT Iran, 173 tract with Loral Vought Systems of Dallas Iraq, 175 for nine Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). The order includes five assembled systems as well as four MLRS kits to be assembled by Nissan Aerospace, Tokyo; all KUWAIT WITH: LITHUANIA of the systems are scheduled for delivery by Egypt, 166 late 1997. According to Loral Vought France, 167 spokesman Craig Vanbebber, Japan has or- dered 36 launchers and will procure MLRS KUWAIT WITH RUSSIA LITHUANIA WITH RUSSIA rockets through a U.S. foreign military sales contract. 7/29/95* 10/27/95* Defense News, 7/3/95, p. 13 (5255). Proposals reportedly exist for Moscow to Lithuania’s Foreign Affairs Ministry ex- “supply Russian SS-200 ground-to-ground presses concern over Russia’s Tochka mis- 10/95 missile launchers” to Kuwait. sile test at the Dobrovolsk training ground MITI drafts a report which recommends Jacques de Lestapis, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 7/29/ in the District, Re- Japan’s joint development and production 95, pp.26-32 (5427). gion. Dobrovolsk is located within 10 km of theater missile defenses (TMD) to sus- of the border with Lithuania. tain the defense industry at a time when KUWAIT WITH UNITED STATES Radio Vilnius Network (Vilnius), 10/27/95; in FBIS- Japan’s defense budget is being reduced. TAC-95-006, 10/27/95 (5633). MITI’s report may cause Japan to reconsider 7/29/95* its arms export policy because of the future Since the Gulf War of 1991, Kuwait has possibility of joint U.S.-Japanese defense ordered five Patriot firing units with 210 development and production. MIM-104 PAC-2GEM missiles from the MALAYSIA Asahi Shimbun (Tokyo), 10/28/95/ p. 2; in FBIS- U.S.; cost of the order is $327 million. EAS-95-209, 10/28/95 (5390). Jacques de Lestapis, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 7/29/ 95, pp.26-32 (5427). INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS * KAZAKHSTAN 7/29/95 The Kuwaiti Navy reportedly considers pur- 10/23/95* chasing the Harpoon Block 1G (B) ASM Malaysia’s Royal Navy intends to purchase from the U.S. to fulfill its Offshore Missile 27 offshore patrol boats, but has yet to de- Vessel (OMV) SSM/ASM requirement. cide which electronic missile defense pro- KAZAKHSTAN WITH RUSSIA AND Jacques de Lestapis, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 7/29/ tection system it will fit onboard these ves- UKRAINE 95, pp.26-32 (5427). E.R. Hooton, International Defense Review, 7/95, pp. 73-79 (5427). sels. Gregor Ferguson, Defense News, 10/23/95, p. 10 7/31/95* (5559). Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine are seek- ing to cooperate in joint space ventures. Past LIBYA MALAYSIA WITH: disagreements over leasing and licensing, Italy, 178 such as the Russian-Kazakhstani dispute over the , have reportedly MALAYSIA WITH UNITED KINGDOM subsided. According to analysts from the INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS Anser Corp., a technical consulting com- 10/26/95* pany, Kazakhstan intends to invest some of 6/95 The Royal Malaysian Navy is scheduled to its lease money from the Cosmodrome in Libya realigns its security services by trans- receive two missile frigates from the U.K. cooperative space ventures. ferring all foreign arms procurement from in late 1996. James R. , Aviation Week & Space Technol- UPI, 10/26/95; in Executive News Service, 10/26/ ogy, 7/31/95, p. 19. (5607). the military intelligence service, headed by 95 (5320). Khuaildi Humaidi, to the chief of battal- ions, Colonel Khalifa Ahneiche. Colonel Said Oueydat al Qadhafi currently com- mands Libya’s missile bases. Intelligence Newsletter, 7/13/95, p. 5 (5259).

180 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments

and Brazil. Russian President Foreign Ministry note reserving Russia’s expresses his support for the decisions right to engage in Category I trading activi- MAURITIUS reached during the negotiations. ties with CIS countries. The decree also Russian Public Television First Channel Network includes a memorandum noting member (Moscow); in FBIS-SOV-95-127, 6/30/95 (5597). requirements to consult with each other be- Interfax (Moscow), 6/30/95; in FBIS-SOV-95-127, 6/30/05 (5597). Theresa Hitchens, Defense News, fore transferring missile-related technologies MAURITIUS WITH: 7/17/95-7/23/95, p. 12 (5631). and to inform “without delay” other signa- Chile, 164 tory governments of decisions to deny Cat- 7/95* egory I export applications. Pakistan’s Ambassador to the U.S. Maleeha Aleksandr Krasulin, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, 8/18/95, Lodhi says U.S. policy discriminates against p. 14; in FBIS-TAC-95-016-L, 8/18/95 (5634). MISSILE TECHNOLOGY Pakistan because it restricts missile trans- 8/4/95 CONTROL REGIME fers but does not punish countries indig- Indian Prime Minister Narasimha Rao (MTCR) DEVELOPMENTS enously developing missile systems. Am- bassador Lodhi states that this failure to voices his misgivings towards the MTCR address indigenous programs will promote because of its “limited and selective ap- missile proliferation. proach.” Ashoke Narain, All India Radio Network (Delhi), Maleeha Lodhi, Risk Report, 7/95, p. 10 (5418). 6/8/95 8/5/95; in FBIS-TAC-95-016-L, 8/5/95 (5304). The Clinton administration waives sanctions 7/10/95 * against Russia and Brazil after Moscow 8/12/95 South Korean Foreign Minister Kong No- Russia is expected to take part in the next transfers carbon fiber technology to Brazil’s myong says South Korea will consider join- commercial SLV project. According to of- MTCR meeting in Bonn as a full member ing the MTCR. in the regime. U.S. sources say Russia may ficials, the waiver is the result of Moscow’s Pak Chae-pom, Seoul Sinmun, 7/12/95, p. 6; in promise to stop selling such technology and FBIS-EAS-95-133 (5343). Tong-a Ilbo (Seoul), 10/ first participate in an informal MTCR meet- American intentions to have Brazil as a full 9/95, p. 1; in FBIS-EAS-95-195, 10/9/95 (5379). ing at a secret location on 8/30/95. Kim Tang, Sisa Journal (Seoul), 10/12/95, pp. 20- Defense News, 8/12/95-8/27/95, p. 2 (5631). MTCR member. 24; in FBIS-EAS-95-196, 10/12/95 (5373). Hanguk Arms Control Today, 7/95-8/95, p. 27 (5631). Ilbo (Seoul), 9/26/95, p. 3; in FBIS-EAS-95-186, 8/28/95 9/26/95 (5446). Korea Herald (Seoul), 10/12/95, 6/24/95 p. 3; in FBIS-EAS-95-200, 10/12/95 (5535). Officials from the South Korean Ministry Pakistani Foreign Minister Sardar Asif Hanguk Ilbo (Seoul), 10/31/95, p. 2; in FBIS-EAS- of Trade, Industry, and Energy say South 95-210, 10/31/95 (5548). Ahmad Ali says U.S. MTCR policy towards Korea is implementing new export control legislation in preparation for its eventual Pakistan is discriminatory because sanctions 7/12/95 were lifted from China in 1994 but have adherence to the MTCR. U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Con- been maintained against Pakistan. Ali also Korea Times (Seoul), 8/29/95, p. 8; in FBIS-TAC- trol and International Security Affairs Lynn 95-005, 8/29/95 (13878). denies that Pakistan has ever “exceeded the Davis says the U.S. is “satisfied that Russia international standard of missile technol- is meeting its commitments”and that the U.S. 9/21/95 ogy... ” U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Thomas The News (Islamabad), 6/25/95, p. 12; in FBIS- “supports Russia’s immediate participation TAC-95-004, 6/25/95 (5409). and membership in the MTCR.” Davis adds McNamara tells the subcommittee on inter- that Russia is working on an effective ex- national affairs of the Senate Committee on 6/30/95 port control system and has addressed U.S. Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs that Russian Prime Minister Viktor concerns over its transfer of rocket technol- the U.S. has gained the agreement of Bra- Chernomyrdin announces that an agreement ogy to India. zil, Russia, and Ukraine to abide by MTCR has been reached with the United States on Theresa Hitchens, Defense News, 7/17/95-7/23/95, guidelines. McNamara says the U.S. sup- p. 12 (5631). Russian membership in the MTCR and Rus- ports Russia’s immediate membership in the MTCR because it has established effective sian participation in a successor regime to 7/24/95 COCOM. The announcement follows a two- export control policies and systems and has Russian Prime Minister Chernomyrdin signs day meeting of the Russian-American Com- resolved past concerns regarding its record the “Russian Federal Government Decree on mission on Economic and Technological in the missile proliferation field. the Russian Federation’s Accession to the Coooperation. During the meeting, Federal News Service, 9/21/95, pp. 1-6 (5603). International Missile Technology Control Chernomyrdin and U.S. Vice President Al Regime.” The decree allows Russia to adopt 9/25/95 Gore resolve U.S. concerns over previous MTCR guidelines, formalizes Russia’s full Russian missile technology sales to India South Korea’s Minister of National Defense membership in the regime, and includes a says it is willing to join the MTCR before

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 181 Missile Developments unilaterally dropping South Korea’s MoU with the U.S. restricting its missile devel- opment. NETHERLANDS NORTH ATLANTIC Son Ki-yong, Korea Times (Seoul), 9/26/95, pp. 1- TREATY ORGANIZATION 2; in FBIS-EAS-95-186, 9/26/95 (5446). (NATO) 10/10/95-10/12/95 NETHERLANDS WITH: In Bonn, Germany, 27 member states at- Canada, Germany, Spain, and tend the MTCR’s 10th Plenary session, in- United States, 164 NATO WITH: cluding Russia and South Africa for the first Germany and NATO, 168 time. The partners vote unanimously for Belarus, Czech Republic, Russia, Germany, NATO, and United Brazilian membership and amend the Equip- and Ukraine, 161 States, 168 ment and Technology Annex “in light of Germany and Netherlands, 168 Germany and United States, 168 technical development[s].” The MTCR Germany, Netherlands, and United members consider the impact of missile pro- States, 168 liferation on regional security and reaffirm their commitment to preventing the prolif- eration of WMD delivery systems via ex- NEW FORUM port controls. The member states also reaf- NORTH KOREA firm their willingness to cooperate in space activities for peaceful purposes and decide to increase dialogue with non-MTCR states INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS to promote “voluntary adherence” to the re- INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS gime guidelines. The meeting is chaired by 9/95 The U.S., Russia, and 26 other countries Adolf von Wagner, deputy director general 7/8/95* in the German Foreign Office. agree to create the “New Forum” organiza- Press Release, Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, tion in an attempt to prevent the spread of In the past year, North Korea has deployed U.S. Department of State, 10/12/95 (5666). Space destabilizing weapons, and to deal with around 70 240 mm MLRS—each having a News, 10/30/95, pp. 1, 20 (5580). rogue proliferant states such as Iran, Iraq, range of about 70 km—within range of Seoul. Hwang Yu-song, Tong-a Ilbo (Seoul), 7/8/95, p. 6; Libya, and North Korea. Among other in FBIS-EAS-95-131, 7/8/95 (5287). 10/14/95 items, the regime’s partners plan to share The South African Foreign Ministry an- intelligence and information on the trade in * nounces that South Africa’s membership in 7/8/95 arms and dual-use goods. The partners plan North Korea plans to begin mass produc- the MTCR was approved on 10/13/95. The to establish the New Forum by the end of Foreign Ministry says that South Africa’s tion of its 1,000 km-range No-dong-1 SSM. 1995. North Korea has been conducting tests of inclusion in the MTCR will open new op- Aviation Week and Space Technology, 9/25/95, p. portunities for its defense industry and will 27 (5261). its 2,000 to 6,000 km-range Taepo-dong-1 bolster the country’s commitment to the and -2 SSMs, and plans to finish develop- nonproliferation of WMD. NEW FORUM WITH SOUTH KOREA ment by 2000. SAPA (Johannesburg), 9/14/95; in FBIS-TAC-95- Hwang Yu-song, Tong-a Ilbo (Seoul), 7/8/95, p. 6; in FBIS-EAS-95-131, 7/8/95 (5287). 005, 9/14/95 (5442). 8/28/95 Officials from the South Korean Ministry 10/25/95 8/95 of Trade, Industry, and Energy say South Brazilian Foreign Minister Luiz Felipe According to Israeli sources, North Korea Korea plans to join the New Forum. has halted development of the No-dong Lampreia says that MTCR membership gives Korea Times (Seoul), 8/29/95, p. 8; in FBIS-TAC- legitimacy to Brazil’s space launch program. 95-005, 8/29/95 (5653). SSM, either due to technical difficulties or Space News, 10/30/95-11/5/95, pp. 1, 20 (5580). to intense pressure from the U.S. North Korea began its No-dong missile program in the mid-1980s and conducted its first test firing in 5/93. Flight International, 8/30/95-9/5/95, p. 4 (5272).

9/10/95 A South Korean intelligence official cites Russian intelligence indicating North Ko-

182 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments rea could deploy the Taepo-dong-2 ICBM Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 9/29/95, p. A3 whether the No-dong-1, No-dong-2, and by the year 2000. According to U.S. De- (5527). Taepo-dong were still being developed or fense Intelligence Agency computer simu- being deployed, Choe says the DPRK has * lations, the Taepo-dong-2 might have a range 10/95 SSMs with ranges of 400 to 500 km and between 4,300 and 6,000 km. According to Citing unverified reports, the International that a 1,000 km missile has been tested. Russian sources, however, North Korea Institute of Strategic Studies’ 1995-1996 Choe also believes that North Korea has also could extend the range of the Taepo-dong-2 Military Balance says North Korea has ap- placed “tactical missiles with ranges of 300 to beyond 9,600 km once difficulties with proximately six operational No-dong-1 mis- km, 500 km or 600 km” on the border with the inertial navigation system, warhead sile launchers. The No-dong-1 is said to South Korea. According to Choe, if North weight, and fuel injection are resolved. The have a circular error probable (CEP) of be- Korea develops strategic missiles with a Taepo-dong-2 reportedly has two stages, tween 2,000 and 4,000 m. range of more than 1,000 km, it would not International Institute of Strategic Studies, Military using a 16.2 m booster with a 16 m Taepo- Balance 1995-1995, 10/95, pp. 281-285 (5569). deploy them on the South Korean border. dong-1 to carry a 1,000 kg warhead. North KBS-1 Television Network (Seoul), 10/13/95; in FBIS-EAS-95-199, 10/13/95 (5539). Korea recently tested the missile’s engine at 10/2/95 its Sanumtong test site, where it is conduct- South Korea’s Defense White Paper notes * ing research and development of the Taepo- 10/15/95 that North Korea can manufacture 100 Scud A new U.S. intelligence study asserts that dong-1 and Taepo-dong-2. missiles per year and that the North is pro- Pak Chae-pom, Seoul Sinmun, 9/11/95, p. 3; in North Korea will soon have the capability FBIS-EAS-95-175, 9/11/95 (5273). ceeding with Taepo-dong-1 and Taepo-dong- to produce blast fragmentation missiles with 2 development. warheads capable of carrying approximately 9/12/95* Korea Herald (Seoul), 10/3/95, p. 3; in FBIS-EAS- 95-194, 10/3/95 (5371). 100 five kg submunitions each. The According to Yonhap news agency, North submunitions, loaded with metal fragments Korea finished development of its No-dong- 10/4/95 or chemical weapons, would be dispersed 1 IRBM by 1994; is now mov- South Korean Chief of Naval Operations 60 km over the launch area. All 100 ing to deploy the system. By 12/95, North Admiral An Pyong-tae says North Korea has submunitions would follow a ballistic tra- Korea will complete development of the completed a new 180 km-range “ground-to- jectory, hitting the target within a time span more powerful No-dong-2 IRBM. By 12/ sea missile.” North Korea has tested the of 20 seconds. Re’uven Pedatzur, Ha’aretz (Tel Aviv), 10/15/95, 96, North Korea will be capable of mass- missile successfully on several occasions. producing its Taepo-dong-1 missile. Finally, p. B1; in FBIS-NES-95-199, 10/15/95 (5472). Avia- The development of this missile expands tion Week & Space Technology, 7/24/95, p. 19 by 2000, the Taepo-dong-2 missile will be North Korea’s capacity for surprise attacks (5278). operational. and long-range strikes. Kyodo (Tokyo), 9/12/95; in FBIS-EAS-95-177, 9/ Sin Hyo-sop and Yu Song-sik, Hanguk Ilbo (Seoul), NORTH KOREA WITH: 12/95 (5285). 10/5/95, p. 2; in FBIS-EAS-95-194, 10/5/95 (5377). Iran, 173 * Iran and South Korea, 173 9/15/95 10/9/95 Referring to reports that North Korea has A top South Korean National Defense Min- NORTH KOREA WITH PRC already deployed its No-dong-1 missile, the istry source says North Korea will be ready chairman of Japan’s Joint Staff Council (JCS) to deploy No-dong-1 missiles by 1996, add- 9/12/95* of the Self-Defense Forces, General Tetsuya ing that the North can consecutively fire Nishimoto, says, “Perhaps the possibility of 11,000 “missiles” in one hour without mov- According to Yonhap news agency, China’s North Korea deploying these missiles is low.” ing its “guns,” which could destroy 30 per- Ministry of Aeronautics and Astronautics Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Tokyo), 9/15/95, p. 8; in Industry and the Chinese State Commission FBIS-EAS-95-181, 9/15/95 (5288). cent of Seoul. The official also notes that North Korea would rely on long-range mis- of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense have trained 50 to 200 * siles to strike densely inhabited regions 9/29/95 North Korean missile engineers. Chinese By the year 2000, North Korea could ex- during a war. Son Tae-kyu, Hanguk Ilbo (Seoul), 10/10/95, p. 1; defense and technology companies are said tend its Taepo-dong-2 ICBM range to target in FBIS-EAS-95-195, 10/10/95 (5372). to have also provided technical support to the western U.S. using nuclear, chemical, North Korea. or biological payloads. U.S. analysts say 10/13/95 Kyodo (Tokyo), 9/12/95; in FBIS-EAS-95-177, 9/ the Taepo-dong-2 is so inaccurate that its In an interview on South Korean television, 12/95 (5285). only purpose could be to carry weapons of Choe Chu-hwal, a former colonel who de- 9/25/95 mass destruction. Some U.S. intelligence fected from the DPRK, says North Korea is officials describe North Korean missiles as manufacturing 1,000 km-range missiles at Deputy Minister of the DPRK Hydro-Me- being Scuds with simple guidance and con- the Taeji Plant in Pyongyang. Asked teorological Service Kim Ho-il and Deputy trol systems.

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 183 Missile Developments

Administrator of the China Meteorological NORTH KOREA WITH UNITED STATES launch site for the international Sea Launch Administration Ma Henian sign a pact on project. scientific and technical cooperation between 9/18/95 Flight International, 9/13/95-9/19/95, p. 5 (5505). the two agencies. The U.S. House of Representatives passes a KCNA (Pyongyang), 9/25/95; in FBIS-EAS-95-186, non-binding resolution seeking to ensure 9/25/95 (5274). North Korean adherence to its nuclear agree- OMAN 9/29/95* ment with the U.S. and to set criteria for improving diplomatic relations between the U.S. intelligence officials say Beijing is as- two countries. The resolution advises Presi- sisting Pyongyang with a long-range mis- dent Clinton not to improve diplomatic re- sile project and training up to 200 North INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS lations or lift trade and investment restric- Korean missile engineers in China. tions unless North Korea meets certain con- Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 9/29/95, p. A3 9/30/95* (5527). ditions, including a cessation of both mis- sile exports and development of IRBMs. Oman asks several UAV manufacturers for information in a bid to enhance its target NORTH KOREA WITH RUSSIA Reuter (Washington), 9/18/95; in Executive News Service, 9/18/95 (5275). acquisition and reconnaissance capabilities. Jacques de Lestapis, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/30/ 10/30/95* 95, pp. 34-36 (5394). Russia has exported stealth technology to China and North Korea which would en- NORWAY 9/30/95* able these two nations to develop cruise Oman’s Qahir class ship, the Al Amwaj, is missiles with small radar cross-sections. equipped with eight MM 40 Exocet ASMs. David A. Fulgham, Aviation Week & Space Tech- The Qahir class Al Mua’zzer was scheduled nology, 10/30/95, p. 53 (5438). NORWAY WITH RUSSIA, UKRAINE, AND for launch on 9/26/95. Jacques de Lestapis, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/30/ UNITED STATES NORTH KOREA WITH SOUTH KOREA 95, pp. 34-36 (5394).

9/29/95 9/95 ROK Air Force Chief of Staff General Kim The General Director of Ukraine’s National Hong-nae tells the National Assembly De- Space Agency Aleksandr Negoda says his PAKISTAN fense Committee that 600 North Korean country would like the joint U.S., Russian, Frog and Scud missiles pointed at South Norwegian, and Ukrainian Sea Launch Korea constitute a grave military threat to project to be implemented as soon as pos- South Korea. The Frog missiles could hit sible. The project, led by the U.S.’s Boeing INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS targets as far south as Anyang, and the range Commercial Space Company, plans to of the Scud missiles includes all of South launch satellites using Ukrainian rock- 7/4/95 Korea. Both missiles could be fitted with ets and Russian upper-stages from a sea- Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto either chemical or nuclear warheads. Ac- based, semi-submersible oil platform con- chairs a meeting of the Defence Committee cording to General Kim, the ROK Air Force verted by Norway’s Kvaerner. The interna- of the Cabinet which considers, among other is working on several counter-measures to tional joint venture—created by Boeing, items, India’s deployment of Prithvi mis- this threat, including pre-emptive strikes Ukraine’s NPO Yuzhnoye, Russia’s Energia, siles in proximity to Pakistan’s border. Paki- against North Korean tactical ballistic mis- and Kvaerner—is scheduled to start launch- stani leaders reportedly view India’s estab- siles, as well as command posts and com- ing commerical payloads from an equato- lishment of a “Missile Group” as an attempt munications facilities. North Korea has re- rial location in 1998. According to offi- to intensify the regional missile race. cently deployed more SSM sites, prompt- cials from the U.S.-led international Sea News (Islamabad), 7/5/95, pp. 1,4; in FBIS-NES- 95-129, 7/5/95 (5336). ing the ROK to plan for the introduction of Launch project, the venture will utilize Russian know-how for launch preparation, next-generation SSMs to increase prepared- 9/3/95* ness for a timely counter-attack. support, tracking, and telemetry. Peter B. de Selding, Space News, 10/9/95-10/15/ Yonhap (Seoul), 9/29/95; in FBIS-EAS-95-189, 9/ Pakistan is reportedly developing an indig- 95, p. 10 (5505). Kommersant-Daily (Moscow), 9/ 29/95 (5276). Kim Ju-Yeon, Washington Times, 9/ enous missile program to acquire an effec- 8/95, p. 9; in FBIS-SOV-95-175, 9/8/95 (5505). 30/95, p. A6 (5473). tive deterrent because Harpoon ASMs are no longer available from the U.S. Pakistan 9/95 already maintains Harpoon Sub-SSMs on Kvaerner and another Norwegian firm are its submarine and long-range Exocet ASMs awarded $171 million to begin converting a on its Sea King helicopters. semi-submersible oilrig into a mobile space

184 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments

The Muslim (Islamabad), 9/3/95, pp. 1,4; in FBIS- trary to earlier reports that only missile com- board its naval frigates. NES-95-176, 9/3/95 (5401). ponents had been sent. The officials say Muslim (Islamabad), 9/3/95, pp. 1,4; in FBIS-NES- storage crates at Pakistan’s Sargodha air force 95-176, 9/3/95 (5401). * 9/5/95 base west of Lahore contain the M-11 mis- Major General Mehmud Al Durrani, Paki- siles. Since obtaining the M-11s, Pakistan PAKISTAN WITH UNITED STATES stan Ordnance Factories (POF) chairman, has built storage sheds, mobile launchers, says the POF is capable of producing mis- and related maintenance facilities and hous- 6/24/95 siles, if requested to do so by the Paksitani ing. With the aid of Chinese experts, Paki- Pakistani President Farooq Ahmad Leghari government. The POF has “several firing stan has also been conducting practice says he has presented several suggestions to ranges from 100 to 200 meter ranges to 40 launches. the United States to help reduce tensions on km open ranges” with “ballistic monitoring” R. Jeffrey Smith and David B. Ottaway, Washington the Subcontinent including the establishment equipment for weapons testing. Post, 7/3/95, p. 1 (5282). Risk Report, 10/95, pp. of a “zero missile zone.” Sikander Hayat, Business Recorder (Karachi), 9/5/ 3-8 (5543). PTV Television Network (Islamabad), 6/24/95; in 95, pp. 1, 10; in FBIS-NES-95-177, 9/5/95 (5411). FBIS-TAC-95-014-L, 6/24/95 (5335). 8/28/95* 10/95 Pakistani Defense Minister Aftab Shahban 7/8/95* Pakistani Foreign Minister Sardar Asif Mirani has reportedly said Pakistan is de- The U.S. plans to sell 28 Harpoon ASMs to Ahmad Ali tells reporters in Washington that veloping an anti-ballistic missile system to Pakistan as part of a $370 million arms pack- Pakistan will indigenously develop defenses intercept the Indian Prithvi SSM. age. to counter India’s Prithvi and other missiles. Aabha Dixit, Defense News, 8/25/95, p. 15 (5365). Nuclear Proliferation News, 7/8/95, p. 10 (5406). Ahmad Ali also says that Pakistan will “match” India’s capabilities but will do so PAKISTAN WITH PRC AND 7/22/95 without violating the MTCR. UNITED STATES An editorial in Pakistan’s Frontier Post re- PTV Television Network (Islamabad), 10/4/95; in ports that U.S. Senator Larry Pressler has FBIS-NES-95-192, 10/4/95 (5402). 3/95 circulated a letter in the Senate asking for assistance in blocking the U.S. transfer to 10/9/95 Robert Einhorn, a Clinton administration official, says the U.S. may have no choice Pakistan of missiles, three P3C anti- Pakistan’s Senate Standing Committee on but to impose Category I sanctions on China submarine planes, and F-16 parts. Pressler Defence meets to discuss the national secu- if enough evidence is gathered to prove that voices concern that such a transfer, along rity implications of missile and nuclear it sold M-11 missiles to Pakistan. with Pakistan’s efforts to develop an indig- weapon proliferation in the region. Sena- Pushpindar Singh, Asian Defence Journal, 5/95, p. enous long-range ballistic missile with Chi- tor Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain chairs the 83 (5544). nese assistance, could trigger an arms race meeting, which is also attended by former between India and Pakistan. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Ahmad 10/95* Frontier Post (Peshawar), 7/22/95, p. 6; in FBIS- Sarohi, former Foreign Ministers Agha According to a new U.S. law, Washington NES-95-142, 7/22/95 (5491). Shahi and Abdul Sattar, former Vice Chief can wait up to six months to impose sanc- * of the Army Staff General K.M. Arif, and tions on China for suspected exports of M- 7/25/95 other former defense and intelligence offi- 11 missiles to Pakistan. The U.S. can im- The Clinton administration is expected to cials. The committee concludes that a pose trade sanctions for two years on China introduce legislation in 7/95 that will allow nuclear deterrent is imperative to Pakistan’s for either conspiring or actually transfer- the U.S. to sell $368 million worth of mili- security. ring the M-11 to Pakistan. tary equipment to Pakistan. The arms pack- Shakil Shaikh, News (Islamabad), 10/10/95, p. 1; Risk Report, 10/95, pp. 3-8 (5543). C. Raja Mohan, age includes P-3C maritime reconnaissance in FBIS-NES-95-195, 10/10/95 (5325). Hindu (Madras), 10/30/95, p. 13; in FBIS-NES- aircraft, which can be fitted with Harpoon 95-212, 10/30/95 (5543). ASMs; the Orion can fire its Harpoon mis- PAKISTAN WITH: siles from a range of 120 km before being Afghanistan, 160 PAKISTAN WITH SOUTH AFRICA detected on an enemy’s radar. Before the India and United States, 172 Pressler amendment came into effect, Paki- * MTCR, 181 9/3/95 stan received 30 Harpoon missiles from the Pakistan’s Navy prepares to initiate a mod- U.S. and installed them on-board its Gear- PAKISTAN WITH PRC ernization program which will include the ing-class and Agosta-class sub- acquisition of a “modern fire control sys- marines. Pakistan’s “Atlantic” naval patrol 7/3/95 tem” for its missile boats and frigates. Ac- aircraft are armed with Exocet ASMs. U.S. intelligence officials says that by 11/ cording to “well informed sources,” Paki- Times of India (Bombay), 7/25/95, p. 13; in FBIS- stan is negotiating with South Africa for the NES-95-145, 7/25/95 (5334). Sunil Dasgupta, In- 92, China had exported over 30 complete dia Today, 9/30/95 (5419). M-11 MRBM to Pakistan; this view is con- renovation of the fire control systems on-

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 185 Missile Developments

Early 8/95 1997. The U.S. Senate prepares to vote on the Michael Mecham, Aviation Week & Space Technol- PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF ogy, 7/3/95, p. 22 (5281). Space News, 8/7/95-8/ White House proposal to transfer approxi- 13/95, p. 22 (5281). mately $400 million worth of weapons to CHINA (PRC) Pakistan, including 28 Harpoon SSMs and 7/11/95* three P-3C anti-submarine aircraft. According to Chinese military theoretician Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 8/7/95-8/13/95, p. 12 (5329). Song Zhong-yu, China’s strategic nuclear INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS weapons may not be capable of overcoming 9/28/95 future ballistic missile defense systems, a 5/95* The U.S. Senate votes to lift military sanc- deficiency which has negative ramifications tions imposed on Pakistan in 1990. The According to senior U.S. officials, China is for the weapon’s deterrent value. seeking advanced military technologies, fa- Viktor Stefashin, Krasnaya Zvezda (Moscow), 7/ sanctions withdrawal could allow the U.S. 11/95, p. 3; in FBIS-SOV-95-133, 7/11/95 (5279). to transfer Harpoon SSMs, Sidewinder voring purchases which will allow indig- enous production over off-the-shelf buys. AAMs, and F-16 components and upgrade * China’s highest priority is technologies to 7/11/95 equipment to Pakistan as part of a $368 Reflecting a shift in Chinese military strat- million weapons package. It is not clear improve the accuracy, stealth, fuel efficiency, and miniaturization of rocket systems. egy towards preparation for “local wars,” whether the bill will be enacted, however, Chinese strategists are contemplating the use due to U.S. intelligence reports that Paki- China has only a “limited capability” in the areas of navigation, guidance and vehicle of non-nuclear strategic missiles. China’s stan received nuclear-capable M-11 missiles deterrent posture may, therefore, rest on the from China in violation of the MTCR. U.S. control, gravity gradiometers, carbon-car- bon composites, and polymeric materials, use of non-nuclear-tipped missiles against Senator John Glenn attacks the measure by non-nuclear-weapon states, coupled with a saying that rewarding Pakistan with new mis- according to the U.S. Defense Department’s “Military [Militarily] Critical Technologies warning of potential escalation to nuclear siles, economic assistance, and spare parts, attack. “makes a mockery of our non-proliferation List.” Risk Report, 5/95, p. 11 (5456). Viktor Stefashin, Krasnaya Zvezda (Moscow), 7/ efforts.” 11/95, p. 3; in FBIS-SOV-95-133, 7/11/95 (5279). Elaine Sciolino, New York Times, 9/22/95, p. A3 5/95* (5323). 7/18/95 China has recently deployed its Russian- China announces plans to conduct SSM tests 10/24/95 made SA-10 SAMs. Security Affairs, 5/95-7/95, pp. 1, 6-7 (5468). from 7/21/95 to 7/28/95. The tests by the A U.S. Congressional panel conditionally People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will take approves the sale to Pakistan of Harpoon * place in the East China Sea. The target area SSMs, Orion P-3C anti-submarine aircraft, 5/17/95 After the decommissioning earlier in 1995 will comprise a 10 nm radius sea zone, 60 radar equipment, and other defense items. km north of Taiwan’s Pengchia Yu Islet and The House of Representatives-Senate con- of the last Chinese escort armed with guns, all Chinese Navy escort ships are now 130 km from Keelung. China plans to fire ference committee approves the $368 mil- six MRBM and LRBM from two sites in lion weapons transfer plan by permitting a equipped with “sealed” guided missiles. Zhongguo Tongxun She (Hong Kong), 5/17/95; in the northwest province of Xinjiang. “one-time waiver” of a law which prohibits FBIS-CHI-95-149, 5/17/95 (5289). UPI (Beijing), 7/18/95; in Executive News Service, U.S. arms sales to Pakistan. The proposed 7/19/95 (5299). Aviation Week & Space Technol- waiver will need to be ratified by the House ogy, 7/24/95, p. 19 (5299). Jane’s Defence Weekly, 7/3/95 7/29/95, p. 12 (5299). of Representatives and the Senate before it Following the 1/26/95 boost-phase explo- is submitted to President Clinton for ap- sion of its Long March-2E, China Great proval. Pakistan purchased these defense 7/21/95 Wall Industry Corporation will strengthen “Recent” missile tests conducted by China items in 1990 but was not allowed to re- the 39 foot fairing on the 164 foot, two- ceive them due to U.S. concerns over represent the “highest form” of missile train- stage SLV. Work on the fairing will take ing, according to a Chinese missile training Pakistan’s nuclear weapon program. place before further launches in fall 1995. Reuter, 10/24/95; in Executive News Service, 10/ document. The document says the tests had 24/95 (5333). Jackie Frank, Reuter, 10/25/95; in Meanwhile, the aerospace company has not two essential purposes: to send a political Executive News Service, 10/25/95 (5421). been successful in its testing of an expend- message and to assess the combat readiness able perigee kick motor. Despite these set- and nuclear operational capability of China’s backs, China plans further launches during strategic and tactical forces. 1995, including the launch of an Intelsat Ming Pao (Hong Kong), 7/21/95, p. A1; in FBIS- telecommunications satellite aboard its LM- CHI-95-143, 7/21/95 (5290). 3B SLV in 11/95. This launch will be one of three Intelsat launches planned through

186 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments

7/21/95-7/26/95 new missile defenses. 8/25/95* China conducts SSM tests as part of the Liu Er-xun and Huang Zu-wei, “TMD And The Military sources say China’s current mis- ABM Treaty,” (forthcoming paper), 8/95 (5303). ongoing 6/95 to 9/95 Blue Whale Five mili- Nuclear Proliferation News, 6/15/95, pp. 16-17 sile-making expertise matches that acheived tary exercise. The PLA's 815th M-class (5658). by France a decade ago. China is expected missile regiment launches six SRBM and to produce MIRV technology in the near MRBM from its Leping military base in 8/10/95 future, along with the miniaturized warheads southeastern Jiangxi Province as part of the China announces plans to conduct a second for use on MIRVed missiles. The increas- tests. One of the four M-9s fired misses its series of missile tests from 8/15/95 to 8/ ingly smaller yields of China’s nuclear test- target, while the other three achieve a CEP 25/95 in the East China Sea, 150 km north ing are said to support this hypothesis. of within two miles after traveling 370 miles. of Taiwan, as part of a larger military exer- Francis Deron, Le Monde (Paris), 8/25/95, p. 2; in FBIS-TAC-95-005, 8/25/95 (5362). On 7/23, China launches two solid-fuel DF- cise. The exercise will include both missile 21 IRBMs from its bases in Tunghua and and artillery tests. 8/29/95* Chilin to a target area north of Taiwan. Benjamin Kang Lim, Reuter (Beijing), 8/10/95; in Vivek Raghuvanshi, Defense News, 7/31/95-8/6/95, Executive News Service, 8/10/95 (5300). China’s M-series missiles have an estimated p. 38 (5302). Seth Faison, New York Times, 7/24/ circular error probable (CEP) of 300 m. 95, p. 14 (5359). David A. Fulghum and Michael 8/11/95* Lu Te-Yung, Lien Ho Pao (Hong Kong), 7/30/95, Mecham, Aviation Week & Space Technology, 7/ p. 8; in FBIS-CHI-95-167, 8/29/95 (5280). 31/95, p. 23 (5359). China Broadcasting Corpora- At the end of 1994, China’s strategic mis- tion News Network (Taipei), 7/24/95; in FBIS-CHI- sile forces conducted a nuclear battlefield 9/12/95* 95-143, 7/24/95 (5359). Bill Gertz, Washington survival exercise in an “underground pal- China has indigenously developed computer Times, 8/15/95, pp. A1, A6 (5291). ace” in the mountains. Zhang Jiajun, Hsien-tai Chun-Shih (ConMilit) software to design and enhance laser, infra- * 7/26/95 (Hong Kong), 8/11/95/95, pp. 25-27; in FBIS-CHI- red, and optical systems which have appli- The Central Military Commission (CMC) 95-194, 8/11/95 (5357). cations in infrared guidance systems, fighter of China’s 2nd Artillery is intensifying ef- aircraft head-up displays, and photo recon- forts to train its personnel on guided mis- 8/15/95-8/23/95 naissance satellites. China is distributing sile technology. Taiwanese military sources say the the software, named COSA-GOLD, to Chi- Jiefangjun Bao (Beijing), 7/26/95, p. 1; in FBIS- Guangzhou Military Region ran a Navy Air nese aeronautical, space, shipping, and elec- CHI-95-183, 7/26/95 (5295). Force exercise in coordination with missile tronics industries. tests in the East China Sea. During the third Fan Jian, Keji Ribao (Beijing), 9/12/95, p. 1; in Late 7/95 day of the East China Sea exercises, Thun- FBIS-CST-95-014, 9/12/95 (5458). The PLA makes staffing changes in its three derbolt (Pili) AAM, Sea Eagle (Hai Ying) * general departments. Retiring personnel ASM, and ship-to-air missiles were fired. 9/19/95 include General Dai Xuejiang (65), Politi- According to Chinese military officials, COSTIND’s Communications Department cal Commissar of the State Commission of China’s military regions have recently con- establishes a multi-layer communications Science, Technology, and Industry for Na- ducted exercises—including a joint exercise network, consisting of fixed ground stations, tional Defense (COSTIND), who is replaced between the Lanzhou Military Region and mobile stations, and ship-based stations. by Lieutenant General Li Jinai, the former the Second Artillery Corps—where SSM, The network is intended to facilitate satel- deputy political commissar. SAM and surface-to-ship missiles were lite communications. It will coordinate test- Chang Hsiu-fen, Kuang Chiao Ching (Hong Kong), fired. The officials say missile tests off of ing sites, launching sites, “measuring-con- 9/16/95, pp. 16-18; in FBIS-CHI-95-198, 9/16/95 trolling” stations, and ship-based measur- (5296). Taiwan are practice for the actual launch of tactical nuclear weapons during conflict at ing stations, thereby aiding various types of scientific research, including missile test- 8/95 sea. Ma Tien-lung, Ping Kuo Jih Pao (Hong Kong), 8/ ing. Two Chinese missile scientists, Liu Er-xun 18/95, p. 1; in FBIS-CHI-95-163, 8/18/95 (5358). Jiejangjun Bao (Beijing), 9/19/95, p. 1; in FBIS- and Huang Zu-wei, write that proposed U.S. Jane’s Defence Weekly, 8/26/95, p. 14 (5301). CHI-95-211, 9/19/95 (5555). Theater Missile Defense (TMD) systems, including THAAD, could undermine the 8/18/95* 10/95 ABM Treaty, potentially weakening Chi- China’s 2nd Artillery Commission of Sci- Chinese President Jiang Zemin observes a nese, British and French deterrence. TMD ence and Technology approves a strategic PLA naval exercise that “includes new presents a potential danger to strategic sta- missile simulation training system for use guided-missile destroyers, guided-missile bility, they say, because China and other in the PLA’s missile units. escorts, nuclear and conventional subma- countries may be forced to increase their Dong Jushan, Jiefangjun Bao (Beijing), 8/18/95, rines, guided-missile patrol boats, and vari- nuclear arsenal, conduct nuclear tests to p. 1; in FBIS-CHI-95-164, 8/18/95 (5292). ous types of aircraft.” Ships and aircraft improve their warheads, and develop offen- participating in the exercise fire missiles, sive penetration aids and tactics to counter torpedoes, and cannons.

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 187 Missile Developments

Xinhua (Beijing), 10/18/95; in FBIS-CHI-95-202, 10/21/95* 10/30/95* 10/18/95 (5557). ROK military sources say China’s military Russia has exported stealth technology to budget is estimated to be $11 billion and its China and North Korea which would en- 10/11/95 major acquisitions will include “missile car- able these two nations to develop cruise During a Senate Foreign Relations Commit- riers.” missiles with small radar cross-sections. tee hearing, defense analyst Richard D. Jane’s Defence Weekly, 10/21/95, p. 18 (5547). David A. Fulgham, Aviation Week & Space Tech- Fisher offers testimony on China’s missile nology, 10/30/95, p. 53 (5438). programs. Fisher says China may attempt PRC WITH: to produce cruise missiles similar to Russia’s Brazil, India, and Israel, 164 PRC WITH TAIWAN Kh-55 (Kent), with a range of 1,800 miles Egypt, 166 and a CEP of 500 feet; the Kh-55 is similar India, 172 10/5/95 to the U.S. . China will prob- Iran, 173 Taiwan begins a large-scale military exer- ably employ advanced guidance systems to cise in the Tsoying military zone near the Israel, 176 achieve high accuracy, which could be used southern city of Kaohsiung. The Hua Hsing on its other missiles. To enhance this capa- North Korea, 183 exercise, involving 60 frigates and 60 air- bility, China is reportedly developing an Pakistan, 185 craft, is being held in response to China’s indigenous position-location satellite sys- Pakistan and United States, 185 7/95 and 8/95 missile tests. tem, with future plans for a 10-satellite con- Kyodo (Tokyo), 10/5/95; in FBIS-CHI-95-193, 10/ stellation employing image and infrared sen- PRC WITH RUSSIA 5/95 (5516). Benjamin Yeh, CNA (Taipei), 10/13/ sors. China is arming its frigates with ad- 95; in FBIS-CHI-95-198, 10/13/95 (5525). vanced C-801/2 SSMs and PL-10 (HQ-61) 7/11/95* PRC WITH UNITED STATES SAMs, replacing the older liquid-fueled According to a 9/94 article, Russia’s Cen- Silkworm SSMs. Fisher says China is using tral Scientific Research Institute of Machine 1/95* Russian technology acquired from its 1993- Building and Metal Working, the Scientific The U.S. Commerce Department singles out 1994 buy of Russian S-300 Grumble SAMs, Research Institute of Thermal Processes, the two Chinese research organizations for in- to build anti-missile systems. According to Samara Central Special Design Bureau, clusion on a list of “suspect” entities which Fisher, China may use the knowledge gained Energia, and Energomash-Tekhnomash en- will require a license to purchase sensitive from anti-missile systems to create counter- terprises are all exporting technology to U.S. imports. The two organizations, Fudan measures. China. These exports are reportedly the University and the Shanghai Institute of Federal News Service, 10/11/95 (5655). result of a highly competitive space launch Nuclear Research, were chosen due to their market, which is forcing Russian firms to 10/15/95 work in tomography, which can aid in the export technology acquired when Russia was non-destructive testing of missile solid fuel A Chinese Communist Party representative a “leading space power.” says the nuclear submarine corps has suc- G. Lomanov, Inzhener (Moscow), 9/94, pp. 18-20; and nuclear explosive detonation packages. cessfully completed underwater missile test- in FBIS-UST-95-027, 7/11/95 (5503). Since the late 1980s, Fudan University has ing during recent naval exercises obtained more than 20 licenses to acquire in the Pacific. 8/29/95* sensitive U.S. exports. Jane Macartney, Reuter (Beijing), 10/15/95; in Ex- According to Western intelligence sources, Risk Report, 1/95-2/95 (5459). ecutive News Service, 10/16/95 (5467). a Russian cruise missile research and devel- opment team is in China to provide exper- 8/27/95 10/15/95* tise and to produce Russian-designed cruise The U.S. announces that it will hold a sum- A new U.S. intelligence study asserts that missiles. According to an [unnamed] mit meeting with China to discuss, among China will soon have the capability to pro- scholar in Taiwan, in 1993 China imported other items, arms control and proliferation duce blast fragmentation missiles with war- a Russian cruise missile production facility issues. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. heads capable of carrying approximately 100 to a site near Shanghai. China may also Madeleine Albright says, “We continue to five kg submunitions each. The improve its C-802 anti-ship cruise missile, have serious questions about their [China’s] submunitions, loaded with metal fragments using U.S. Harpoon cruise missile technol- nuclear testing, about some of their poli- or chemical weapons, would be dispersed ogy to create a land-attack version. Tai- cies -a-vis transfer of missile technology, 60 km over the launch area. All 100 wanese military sources say China may con- [and] some of their threatening behavior submunitions would follow a ballistic tra- duct cruise missile tests in the ocean area towards Taiwan.” jectory, hitting the target within a time span Donald Lambro, Washington Times, 8/28/95, pp. north of Taiwan’s Pengchia Islet. A1, A8 (5649). of 20 seconds. Lu Te-Yung, Lien Ho Pao (Hong Kong), 7/30/95, Re’uven Pedatzur, Ha’aretz (Tel Aviv), 10/15/95, p. 8; in FBIS-CHI-95-167, 8/29/95 (5280). p. B1; in FBIS-NES-95-199, 10/15/95 (5472). Avia- tion Week & Space Technology, 7/24/95, p. 19 (5278).

188 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments

10/4/95 UAVs. personic ASCMs employ inertial mid-course U.S. Undersecretary of State Lynn Davis Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/30/95, pp. 36-38 (5393). guidance and an active-radar seeker for ter- says the United States would not implement minal guidance. The Yakhont is designed new sanctions against China unless it ac- to be ship- or submarine-launched while the quired undeniable proof that China, in vio- ROMANIA Alfa can be ship-, submarine-, or air- lation of MTCR guidelines, sold M-11 mis- launched. siles to Pakistan. According to Davis, the Flight International, 8/30/95-9/5/95, p. 8 (5350). transaction in question may have occurred before China announced its intention to ad- Mid-1995 ROMANIA WITH: here to the MTCR in 9/94. Russia test launches an SS-N-20 SLBM from Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 10/5/95, p. A10 Hungary, 168 a Typhoon class submarine which had bro- (5514). ken through ice two nautical miles from the North Pole. The SS-N-20’s 10 dummy war- 10/9/95* heads all hit the Chikha missile range with The U.S. House decides to cut funding for RUSSIA a reported accuracy of 500 m. According the U.S.-China Joint Defense Conversion to NORAD spokesman Major Robin Alford, Commission. The Commission, created by Russia gave the U.S. advance notice of the U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry and test as required under the provisions of the General Ding Henggao, director of INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS START agreement. U.S. sensors monitored COSTIND, was established in 1994. the SS-N-20 missile’s entire flight. William Triplett, Defense News, 10/9/95, pp. 23- 1995 Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/9/95, p. 6 (5448). 24 (5356). Russian missile builder Raduga begins test- flying its -powered Hypersonic Ex- 7/95* 10/12/95 perimental Flying Testbed (GELA). The Russia’s ISKRA Engineering Design Bu- Nominee for U.S. ambassador to China, testbed is apparently intended for develop- reau, which manufactures aerospace prod- James Sasser, tells the Senate Foreign Rela- ment of an air-launched ASM. The current ucts and composite solid-fuel, indicates its tions Committee that classified data indi- status of the missile project remains unclear. readiness to engage in international joint cate China is becoming “more responsible” Flight International, 9/6/95-9/12/95, p. 16 (5592). ventures to develop and produce solid-fuel in its missile sales. propulsion systems. William Scally, Reuter (Washington), 10/12/95; in 4/95 Military Parade, 7/95-8/95, pp. 37-40 (5600). Executive News Service, 10/13/95 (5466). Michael Dobbs, Washington Post, 10/13/95, p. A18 (5466). The city of Svobodnyy-18 in Oblast is chosen as the site for a new Russian 7/95* 10/24/95 cosmodrome. According to Russian Space Reports in Military Parade indicate that During the upcoming 10/24/95 summit be- Agency sources, it will cost Russia four tril- Russia’s Smerch MLRS was developed by tween U.S. President Clinton and Chinese lion rubles to build one space launch com- the SPLAV State Research and Production President Jiang Zemin at the U.N. in New plex for heavy rocket boosters. Enterprise and was deployed with the So- Ogonek (Moscow), 4/95, p.38; in FBIS-UST-95- viet Army in 1986. Each 70 km-range York, Clinton is expected to communicate 030, 8/2/95 (5618). U.S. concerns over China’s 8/95 missile tests rocket has an on-board flight control unit. In contrast to older unguided rockets of this off the northern coast of Taiwan. Mid-1995 Jashon Glashow, Space News, 10/16/95-10/22/95, type, the flight control unit reduces the p. 29 (5460). The Russian aircraft design bureau Tupolev Smerch rocket’s dispersion rate by three reveals its new Tu-300 reconnaissance UAV. times and doubles its firing accuracy. The Tu-300 is still under development and Military Parade, 7/95-8/95, pp. 130-131 (5571). only a limited number have been manufac- QATAR tured to date. 7/1/95 Flight International, 8/30/95-9/5/95, p. 7 (5347). The Russian government approves a plan by the Russian Space Agency (RSA), the De- Mid-1995 fense Ministry, and the State Defense In- INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS NPO Mashinostroenie says projects to de- dustry committee to convert Russian SS-19 velop the Russian Navy’s new ramjet-pow- missiles into SLVs. The so-called ‘Rockot’ 9/30/95* ered Yakhont and -powered Alfa will be Russia’s third medium-class SLV The Qatar Army’s field regiment maintains ASCMs are in jeopardy because of a short- available on the international space launch four Astros II multi-barreled rocket launch- age in state funding. Mashinostroenia adds market, along with the and ers and plans to acquire “target acquisition” that it is financing development of the rockets. Yakhont missile project by itself. Both su-

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 189 Missile Developments

Kommersant-Daily (Moscow), 7/7/95, p. 9; in FBIS- 8/19/95* the supersonic Yakhont ASCM and the new TAC-95-014-L, 7/7/95 (5596). Russia’s new Raduga Kh-101 long-range, supersonic Aplha ASCM. The Yakhont is conventional cruise missile is ready for flight scheduled to make its first “propelled and 7/17/95* testing with the Russian Air Force. The guided flight” in early 1996. Tupolev dis- In a move that will permit major Russian Kh-101 was given priority over the Kh-55 plays the 1,000 km-range TU-141 Strij arms producers to independently export their missile’s planned replacement, the Kh-90 drone. own products, the Russian government be- supersonic cruise missile. The Kh-101’s Jean-Pierre Casamayou, Christian Lardier, Pierre gins to break the “near monopoly” of designers reportedly concentrated their ef- Langereux, Air & Cosmos/Aviation International Rosvoorouzhenie, the state-run arms export (Paris), 9/1/95, 9/8/95, 9/15/95; in FBIS-UST-95- forts on producing homing and guidance 044, 11/1/95 (5628). agency. Critics say Rosvoorouzhenie has systems for accuracies of between 12 and not raised enough arms export revenue for 20 m. The Kh-101 will be armed with a 9/95 the Russian Treasury. Rosvoorouszhenie conventional warhead containing 400 kg of Maschinostroenie announces that it has con- will continue to oversee Russian arms ex- an “incendiary penetrating charge” and high ports while the Russian Ministry of For- ducted an unguided test-firing of the Yakhont explosives. It may also incorporate an ASCM. The Yakhont can either be launched eign Economic Relations will be responsible “electro-optic course correction system” to for export licensing. The new State Com- vertically or at an angle of 15 degrees from enhance its inertial navigation system and a horizontal. With a range of 300 km and a mittee for Arms Trade Policy will super- “TV-guided terminal homing head.” The vise Russia’s “trade-related policy.” Over the speed of Mach 2.5, the Yakhont can be Kh-101 is scheduled to enter service in launched from land, a surface ship, or a next two years, President Yeltsin’s govern- 2000. ment is reportedly prepared to allow up to submarine. According to a Maschinostroenie Piotr Butowski, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 8/19/95, p. official, the Yakhont has undergone 10 to 10 companies to export their arms indepen- 11 (5614). dently. According to a Rosvoorouzhenie 20 tests and will be ready for deployment spokesman, the Russian government’s policy 9/95* in approximately two years. Improvements to the Yakhont’s radar seeker allow for tar- change makes sense because of growing Russia is marketing the 360 km-range get differentiation based radar cross section, competition on the international arms mar- Tupolev Tu-243 UAV at several defense ex- electro-magnetic signature, and target loca- ket. According to Boris Kuzyk, senior ad- hibitions. The Tu-243 uses an expendable tion. The new ASCM will be deployed with visor to President Yeltsin on the arms trade, rocket booster for launch and employs a gas the Russian Navy and will also be placed Moscow’s Scientific Production As- turbine engine throughout its flight. The sociation, which manufactues the S-300 on the international export market. Tu-243’s flight control is performed by a Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/2/95, p. 13 (5449). anti-aircraft system, will probably be the pre-programmed on-board computer. first firm to receive government approval to IDR Despatches, 9/95, p. 3 (5453). 9/95 independently export arms. Director General of Rosvoorouzhenie Anton Zhigulsky, Defense News, 7/17/95-7/23/95, 9/95* Alexander Kotelkin identifies the Middle pp. 1, 29 (5608). According to an article in Russia’s Inzhener, East as a potentially large market for Rus- “the policy of squeezing Russian firms” out sian exports, especially the S-300 air de- 8/95 of the international space launch market is fense system. Russian companies seeking Sources “close” to the Belarusian Ministry forcing several of them to export the tech- to export defense items must proceed of Defense say Russia’s Rosvoorouzhenie is nology which they acquired when Russia through one of three export organizations— concluding a deal with “one of the Middle was “a leading space power.” Eastern states” to transfer an S-300 air de- G. Lomanov, Inzhener (Moscow), 9/94, pp. 18-20; Rosvoorouzhenie, the Moscow Aircraft Pro- fense system. in FBIS-UST-95-027, 7/11/95 (5503). duction Organization (MAPO), and the MMC (Minsk), 8/14/95; FBIS-TAC-95-016-L, 8/ Defense Export Organization—and then ob- 14/95 (5620). 9/95 tain an export license from the State Com- Russian firms display several SLVs and mittee. 8/95 cruise missiles at the Moscow 95 Airshow. Charles Bickers, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/23/95, p. 40 (5385). Russia displays the Hercules air defense sys- The Khrunichev Space Center displays the tem at the MAKS-95 international air show. small Rockot SLV, the prototype Proton-M 9/3/95 The system can strike targets at a range of SLV, and the heavy-launch vehicle. Director of the Baikonur Cosmodrome Gen- several hundred km and at altitudes of up to The Rockot’s maiden launch is scheduled eral Alexei A. Shumilin says Russia’s Space 40 km. According to Russian Hercules crew for 1997 from the Plesetsk cosmodrome, Forces “will continue to manage” Russia’s members, the missile is superior to the Pa- while a 1998 launch date is scheduled for military space program, but the RSA will triot and “can even zap a satellite during the the Proton-M. The Angara utilizes differ- progressively take over all other civilian launch phase.” ent elements from the Energia, Zenith, and functions. RSA Director General Yuri A. Filippov, Moscow Television Network (Moscow), Proton-M SLVs. Maschinostroenie displays 8/21/95; in FBIS-TAC-95-005, 8/21/95 (5384). Koptev confirms that the transfer of nearly

190 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments all of Baikonur’s civilian operations to the of Russia’s nuclear weapons. which has a reported range of “over 2,770 RSA and its industrial partners will be com- Reuter, 9/15/95; in Executive News Service, 9/15/ km (1,500 nm)” traveling at subsonic speeds, pleted by 1997. Koptev says Baikonur will 95 (5601). will probably be fitted on-board Russia’s focus its future efforts on developing busi- Tupolev Tu-160 Blackjack, Tu-95 Bear H, ness ventures with the West. The role of 9/24/95 and Tu-22M3 Backfire bombers. The Kh- Russia’s Military Space Forces in the final Russian Prime Minister Viktor 101 project may have been boosted by assembly and launch of civilian space rock- Chernomyrdin issues a government order Russia’s cancellation of the Kh-90 super- ets will be decreased radically. making it illegal to cut off electricity sup- sonic cruise missile program due to inad- Peter B. de Selding, Space News, 9/11/95-9/17/95, plies to any military or defense industry fa- equate funding. pp. 2, 20 (5504). cilities in Russia. Flight International, 10/4/95-10/10/95, p. 30 Reuter, 9/24/95; in Executive News Service, 9/24/ (5602). 9/5/95 95 (5630). Russia conducts successful flight-design 10/6/95 tests of the Topol-M2 (RS-12M2) missile 9/25/95 Russia gives seven companies the authority at the state test site in Mirnyy, Arkhangelsk An unidentified Russian lieutenant general to sell their products directly on the inter- Oblast. The three-stage, solid-fuel Topol- says that if NATO expands eastward, Rus- national arms market. According to Boris M2 was developed by the Moscow Thermal sia will be forced to sell missile and nuclear Kuzyk, Russian President Boris Yeltsin’s Equipment Institute under the direction of technology to countries such as India, Iran, advisor on the arms trade, Russia alters its Boris Lagutin and is designed for silo-de- Iraq, and—if Islamic forces take power in that arms export strategy because of ferocious ployment. Commander of Russia’s Strate- country—even . The general says that competition in the global arms market. S- gic Missile Forces (SMF) Colonel General military partnerships with these countries, 300V manufacturer Antei is one of the seven Igor Sergeyev says the Topol’s performance especially Iran, will also be a possibility. companies affected by this decision. Ac- parameters are ideal and that it will cost less The general is interviewed by an unidenti- cording to Rosvoorouzhenie, Russian de- to produce compared to other missile sys- fied reporter following a speech delivered fense exports totalled $1.7 billion in 1994. tems. by Russian Defense Minister Pavel Grachev. This figure is expected to increase to as much Aleksandr Dolinin, Krasnaya Zvezda (Moscow), 9/ Zavtra (Moscow), 10/95, pp. 1,6; in FBIS-SOV- 95-205, 10/24/95 (5382). as $2.6 billion in 1995. 7/95, p. 1; in FBIS-SOV-95-177, 9/7/95 (5502). Anton Zhigulsky, Defense News, 10/16/95-10/22/ Krasnaya Zveyda, 9/7/95, p. 1 (5639). 95, p. 64 (5452). 9/28/95* 9/14/95 Russia’s Rosvoorouzhenie will showcase its 10/9/95* The Ministry of Fuel and Power Engineer- S-300V SAM system at the Defense Seoul- Russia’s STC Complex is marketing two ing cuts off power to Russia’s Plesetsk mis- 95 arms exhibition in South Korea. Head types of converted SS-25 missiles as SLVs: sile test site in Arkhangelsk which forces of the Russian delegation, Vladmir Lebed, the four-stage Start-1 SLV and the five-stage the shutdown of all Topol-M testing activi- says the system is superior to many of its Start SLV. ties. Although the cut-off lasts only one foreign competitors, including the U.S. Pa- Warren Ferster, Space News, 10/9/95-10/15/95, pp. hour, the SRF places armed officers at power triot anti-missile system. 1, 20 (5610). substations supplying Plesetsk to prevent Rossiskaya Gazeta, 9/28/95, p. 1 (5434). further shutdowns. Russia’s Strategic Rocket 10/10/95 Forces (SRF) have been unable to pay their 10/3/95 The SRF test-fires an RS-12M Topol M electricity bills for several months and owe The Russian Defense Ministry’s new mili- ICBM from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome. SRF a reported 17 billion rubles in back pay- tary doctrine reportedly calls into question Commander Igor Sergeyev says that the ments; the SRF owes a reported 70 billion international structures that monitor the missile landed on target with “exquisite rubles throughout the whole of Russia. proliferation of WMD and asserts that Rus- precision.” Sergeyev says the test is intended Deputy Commander of the SRF Colonel sia alone will determine the permissibility to verify the combat readiness of the sup- General Vladimir Nikitin blames the of future missile technology sales to India, port personnel and the technical performance government’s handling of the military bud- Iran, Iraq, and Algeria. of the missile’s boosters. get for the SRF’s inability to pay its power Aleksandr Lyasko, Komsomolskaya Pravda (Mos- Anatoliy Yurkin, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 10/10/95; in cow), 9/29/95-10/6/95, p. 2; in FBIS-SOV-95-191, FBIS-SOV-95-196, 10/10/95 (5595). bills. 10/3/95 (5593). NTV (Moscow), 9/15/95; in FBIS-SOV-95-180, 9/ 15/95 (5598). 10/13/95 * 10/4/95 Russian President Boris Yeltsin signs the 9/15/95 Russia is experimenting with a next-genera- federal law “On State Regulation of Foreign SRF Deputy Commander Vladimir Nikitin tion, long-range ALCM—probably the Trade Activity.” The law sets forth the Rus- says that further power shut-offs could jeop- Raduga Kh-101 cruise missile—at the Rus- sian Federation’s general principles and au- ardize the SRF’s ability to guarantee the sian Air Force’s Ahktubinsk test-site. The thority for regulating foreign trade activity, conventionally armed Kh-101 missile,

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 191 Missile Developments including “military-technical cooperation MTCR, 181 RUSSIA WITH SYRIA and cooperation with foreign states in the North Korea, 184 missile-space sector.” The new Russian law Norway, Ukraine, and United 9/95* establishes a new system of export controls States, 184 Russia has previously exported the 150 km- to constrain the trade in arms, military PRC, 188 range Tupolev Reys (Voyager) UAV to Syria. equipment, dual-use technology, and other IDR Despatches, 9/95, p. 3 (5453). materials, that could contribute to the pro- RUSSIA WITH SOUTH KOREA liferation of WMD, missiles capable of de- 9/95 livering WMD, and other dangerous weap- Russian Defense Minister Pavel Grachev says 8/30/95 ons and technologies. Russia stopped transferring long-range mis- Rossiyskya Gazeta (Moscow), 10/24/95, pp. 4-5; A South Korean official says, to protect it- siles to Syria three years ago. Syria is re- in FBIS-SOV-95-213-S, 10/24/95 (5629). self against North Korean No-dong SSMs, ported to be $11 billion in debt to Moscow. the ROK may jointly produce the S-300 Hayim Hecht, Qol Yisra’el (Jerusalem), 9/15/95; * 10/26/95 ATBM with Russia. in FBIS-NEW-95-179, 9/15/95 (5621). Russia conducts a successful test-launch of Naoaki Usui, Defense News, 9/11/95-9/17/95, p. 14 (5537). a new tactical missile at the Ministry of RUSSIA WITH UKRAINE Defense’s State Central Test Range. The 9/27/95-9/28/95 mobile, highly accurate, integrated tactical 7/31/95* Russian Prime Minister Viktor missile system is being developed for Russia’s RSC Energia and Ukraine’s NPO Chernomyrdin discusses military coopera- Russia’s ground forces. Colonel General Yuzhnoye are discussing a “ swap” with tion with South Korean leaders during the Anatoliy Sitnov, Chief of Armament of the one another. Russia and Ukraine are close Russian Federation’s Armed Forces, says the Seoul Defense-95 arms exhibition. Defense News, 10/9/95-10/15/95, p. 12 (5533). to reaching a bilateral space agreement. new missile meets INF Treaty requirements. James R. Aster, Aviation Week & Space Technol- Sitnov also says that no similar missile sys- ogy, 7/31/95, p. 19. (5607). 10/3/95 tems exist anywhere else in the world. The test-launch is executed under the direction Alexy Kudryashov of the Russian state im- 10/30/95 of Mikhail Kolesnikov, Chief of the Rus- port/export company, Rosvoorouzhenie, says Colonel Oleksandr Serdyuk, head of the sian Armed Forces General Staff. Russia is planning to sell weapons to South Strategic Forces Administration of Ukraine’s Kolesnikov asserts that the new missile is Korea and is also seeking joint weapons Defense Ministry, announces that nuclear “the weapon of the 21st century.” development projects. Among the planned warheads have been removed from 90 per- Russian Public Television First Channel Network projects is the updating of Russian Igla anti- cent of the strategic nuclear missiles on (Moscow), 10/26/95; in FBIS-TAC-95-006, 10/26/ aircraft missiles and possibly the develop- Ukrainian territory. The warheads were 95 (5623). Russian Public Television First Chan- ment of a medium-range missile. removed as part of a 1/94 agreement with nel Network (Moscow), 10/27/95; in FBIS-TAC- Defense News, 10/9/95-10/15/95, p. 12 (5533). 95-006, 10/27/95 (5623). the U.S. and Russia to dismantle Ukraine’s 130 SS-19 and 46 SS-24 missiles and to 10/17/95 RUSSIA WITH: transfer the warheads to Russia in exchange Boris Saltykov and Chong Kun-mo, the Australia, 160 for nuclear power plant fuel. Serdyuk says Ministers of Science and Technology of all Ukraine’s SS-24 missiles were dismantled Australia and Sweden, 161 Russia and South Korea respectively, agree Belarus, 161 by 10/94 and that thus far 80 of the 130 SS- on a plan to transfer 15 Russian military 19 ICBMs have beeen dismantled. Although Belarus, Czech Republic, NATO, technologies to South Korea for civilian in- Russia retains operational control over the and Ukraine, 161 dustrial applications. Among the technolo- remaining 10 percent of the missiles in Bosnia and Iran, 162 gies to be transferred is a ICBM guidance Ukraine, Serdyuk asserts that Ukraine re- Bosnia and Serbia, 162 system for automobile automatic operating tains administrative control of the nuclear Brazil, 163, 164 devices and “for automatic navigation de- forces on its territory. Colombia, 165 vices for ships and vessels.” Russia and AFP (Paris), 10/30/95; in FBIS-SOV-95-210, 10/ South Korea may also work together on fu- Croatia, 165 30/95 (5613). Interfax (Moscow), 10/30/95; in ture projects involving “dual-purpose tech- FBIS-SOV-95-210, 10/30/95 (5613). Germany, 168 nologies, new materials, biotechnology and India, 172 controlled thermo-nuclear reaction.” Iraq, 175 Son Yong-kyu, Hanguk Ilbo (Seoul), 10/18/95, p. Kazakhstan and Ukraine, 180 2; in FBIS-EAS-95-201, 10/18/95 (5650). Nikolay Geronin, Itar-Tass (Moscow), 10/16/95; in FBIS- Kuwait, 180 SOV-95-200, 10/16/95 (5650). Lithuania, 180

192 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments

RUSSIA WITH UKRAINE AND Production Enterprise-NK Engines. 10/9/95* UNITED STATES Defense News, 7/24/95-7/30/95, p. 12 (5344). The U.S.’s EarthWatch Inc. of Colorado is granted permission by the U.S. government 8/9/95 Mid-1995 to launch its EarlyBird remote-sensing sat- The U.S. Defense Nuclear Agency an- The U.S. firm Pratt and Whitney receives ellite on-board a Russian Start-1 booster in nounces plans for the construction of a an RD-120 rocket engine from NPO 1996. closed-burn solid rocket motor (SRM) de- Energomash in Russia. The transfer is the Warren Ferster, Space News, 10/9/95-10/15/95, pp. struction facility in Perm, Russia. The 1, 20 (5610). first step in a joint venture between the two planned facility will eliminate 30 percent companies to market a modified version of of Russia’s SRMs by 12/31/00. Russia will 10/9/95 the upper stage Zenit rocket engine. The maintain control over the status of the mis- Russian Prime Minister Chernomyrdin signs new RD-120M engine will be manufactured sile cases, insulation, and other subcompo- a resolution determining the cooperative in Russia and Ukraine, and will constitute nents. basis between Samarsk AO and the U.S.’s the first stage of a new, small SLV. Post-Soviet Nuclear & Defense Monitor, 9/1/95, pp. Aerojet for the installation of Russian en- Flight International, 7/26/95-8/1/95, p. 20 (5346). 3-4. gines on American SLVs. Andrei Baranovski, Legodnya, 10/20/95, p. 4 RUSSIA WITH UNITED STATES 9/94* (5640). The RAMKON organization, set up by the Late 4/95 Makeyev design bureau and other Russian 10/20/95* The U.S.’s GRA Trading Company Inc. bro- defense enterprises, establishes a joint ven- The U.S.’s Aerojet announces that it has kers a deal in which Russia’s ture with the U.S. corporation Sea Launch successfully test-fired a Russian NK-33 liq- Rosvoorouzhenie sells a top secret S-300 Investors to use converted SS-N-6, SS-N-8, uid-fuel rocket engine for the first time. anti-aircraft missile system to the U.S. for and SS-N-18 SLBMs for commercial space Andrei Baranovski, Legodnya, 10/20/95, p. 4 $100 million. The S-300, which can strike launches. Two test launches of converted (5640). down tactical missiles, cruise missiles, and SLBMs have been conducted to date. other airborne targets at elevations of up to G. Lomanov, Inzhener (Moscow), 9/94, pp. 18-20; 30 km, is designed by Antei and built by in FBIS-UST-95-027, 7/11/95 (5503). SAUDI ARABIA Novator. The S-300 can also track 200 tar- gets concurrently, and can reportedly detect 9/29/95 “stealth” aircraft with a “99 percent guaran- The Clinton administration adopts a policy tee” of destruction. which allows excess Russian ballistic mis- Denis Baranets, Moscow News, 10/6/95-10/12/95, siles to compete with U.S. rockets in the SAUDI ARABIA WITH: p. 5 (5617). Moscovskie Novosti, 10/1/95-10/8/ commercial space launch market. The U.S. France, 167 95, p. 29 (5637). position is adopted after a meeting with Russian delegates at the START Joint Com- 6/30/95 pliance and Inspection Commission in The U.S. agrees to stop opposing Russia’s Geneva. Although the new policy will even- SERBIA participation in the “New Forum,” the or- tually permit the use of all excess foreign ganization to replace COCOM. States with ballistic missiles for space launch purposes “viable nationally-based export control re- in the U.S., only Russia and Ukraine are gimes,” and which adhere to the MTCR, the affected at this point. The U.S. will review SERBIA WITH: NPT, and the chemical/biological weapons requests to launch American-made satellites Bosnia and Russia, 162 accords will be eligible for membership in on converted foreign missiles on a case-by- the New Forum. case basis. Barbara Starr, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 8/5/95, p. 5 Warren Ferster, Space News, 10/9/95-10/15/95, pp. (5267). 1, 20 (5610). SLOVAKIA

Mid-1995 10/4/95 Russia delivers two NK-33 rocket engines Deputy Director General of the Russian to Aerojet in Sacramento, California, to be Space Agency Yuri Milov says that Russia SLOVAKIA WITH: tested for possible use in the U.S. Air Force’s has plenty of SS-25 missles to satisfy the Azores and Ecuador, 161 Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle U.S.’s space launch demands. (EELV) project. The engines are provided Warren Ferster, Space News, 10/9/95-10/15/95, pp. as part of a joint venture between Aerojet 1, 20 (5610). and Russia’s Samara State Scientific and

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 193 Missile Developments

“stealthy reconnaissance UAV” upon export. Aviation Week and Space Technology, 7/3/95, pp. SOUTH AFRICA 62-65 (5479). SOUTH KOREA

9/9/95* The South African government establishes INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS the National Conventional Arms Control INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS Committee (NCAC) to regulate the export 7/3/95* of defense items. Headed by a 10/11/95 South Africa’s Kentron test-flies a “second- minister with no official defense industry South Korean Defense Minister Yi Yang-ho generation stand-off weapon” which has ties, the NCAC will maintain an indepen- announces that South Korea will soon be- range and speed capabilities similar to the dent inspectorate to monitor the committee’s gin research and development of short-range U.S. AGM-130E. The new weapon can be work and to report directly to the South SAMs. The ROK National Assembly De- launched from the ’s African Senate and National Assembly de- fense Committee has been critical of the Biho (SAAF) two-seater Cheetah D aircraft, al- fense committees. South Africa’s defense 30mm low-altitude anti-air gun—to be pro- though it is not known if a prototype is avail- exports will no longer be regulated by coun- duced in 1999—because its 2.5 km range is able yet. U.S. officials assert that the “new try classification, but will be evaluated in considered insufficient to counter North standoff weapon is stealthy.” Kentron has terms of their potential contribution to hu- Korean Scuds or attacking aircraft. also developed the H-3 “powered glide man rights violations, regional instability, Korea Herald, (Seoul), 10/12/95, p. 3; in FBIS- bomb” by adding a micro rocket motor to and terrorist activities; their potential for EAS-95-200, 10/12/95 (5535). its H-2 glide bomb. The H-3 project was diversion for re-export; and their possible apparently terminated after one successful negative repercussions for South Africa’s SOUTH KOREA WITH: test-flight because of financial constraints. trade and foreign policies. The NCAC has Iran and North Korea, 173 According to the SAAF, all of the H-3s have already denied export requests to two coun- Israel, 176 been “retired,” but conflicting reports from tries, and may be responsible for blocking Japan, 179 industry officials and former officers assert exports to Turkey, which forced some South MTCR, 181 that a number of H-3s were retained and African companies to break contractual ob- New Forum, 182 ligations. more could be produced quickly on demand. North Korea, 184 Aviation Week and Space Technology, 7/35/95, pp. Helmoed Roemer, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/9/95, 55-58 (5321). p. 4 (5319). Russia, 192

* 7/3/95* 11/1/95 SOUTH KOREA WITH UNITED STATES Officials from South Africa’s Overberg South Africa releases the first pictures of Toersbaan (OTB) test range hope that South Kentron’s modular precision stand-off 7/10/95 Africa’s entry into the MTCR by the end of weapon (MUPSOW) prototype, which can South Korean Foreign Minister Kong No- 1995 will allow it to conduct future space be mounted on the South African Air Force’s myong announces his government’s inten- launches. The OTB site, which is run by (SAAF) Cheetah aircraft. MUPSOW tion to abolish a 1979 memorandum of un- the aerospace firm, was intended will replace the SAAF’s H-2 stand-off glide derstanding with the U.S. prohibiting originally for use in a South African satel- bomb, which was used during the war in Seoul’s development of SSMs with ranges lite and space launch program, but the . of more than 180 km and payloads over 500 project was shelved as a reult of “missile Flight International, 11/1/95-11/7/95, p. 14 (5482). kg. The MoU also bans South Korea from treaty agreements.” The range is currently importing missile components from third SOUTH AFRICA WITH: being used to test tactical missiles and air- countries and places restrictions on its ci- craft. According to General Manager Jan CIS, France, and United States, vilian space program. South Korea recon- Malan, OTB is focusing on testing longer 165 firmed the MoU in 8/90, agreeing to in- range systems in particular. MTCR, 181 form the U.S. if it exceeded these limita- Aviation Week and Space Technology, 7/3/95, pp. Pakistan, 185 tions. 62-65 (5479). Pak Chae-pom, Seoul Sinmun, 7/12/95, p. 6; in FBIS-EAS-95-133 (5343). Kim Tang, Sisa Jour- 7/3/95* nal (Seoul), 10/12/95, pp. 20-24; in FBIS-EAS- 95-196, 10/12/95 (5373). Tong-a Ilbo (Seoul), 10/ South Africa’s Kentron is offering its Flow- 9/95, p. 1; in FBIS-EAS-95-195, 10/9/95 (5379). chart 2 UAV for use as a “target drone.” U.S. Hanguk Ilbo (Seoul), 9/26/95, p. 3; in FBIS-EAS- officials worry that the Flowchart 2 could 95-186, 9/26/95 (5446). Korea Herald (Seoul), 10/ be armed with a warhead or used as a 12/95, p. 3; in FBIS-EAS-95-200, 10/12/95 (5535). Hanguk Ilbo (Seoul), 10/31/95, p. 2; in FBIS-EAS- 95-210, 10/31/95 (5548).

194 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments

8/21/95-9/1/95 The U.S. and the ROK hold the Ulchi-Fo- cus Lens exercise, during which the joint SUDAN TAIWAN U.S.-South Korean system for detecting and intercepting North Korean Scud missiles proves to be inadequate; computer simula- tions are used to test the system. In 9/95, SUDAN WITH: INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS U.S. and South Korean leaders say prob- Iran and Iraq, 173 lems with the current system require that an 9/19/95* effective strategy to counter North Korean In response to China’s continued missile missiles be adopted as soon as possible. tests, Taiwan has deployed 170 km-range Son Tae-kyu, Hanguk Ilbo (Seoul), 10/4/95, p. 1; SWEDEN Hsiung Feng anti-ship missiles on the is- in FBIS-EAS-95-193, 10/4/95 (5534). land of Tung-yin, near China’s Fujian prov- ince. Taiwan originally planned to deploy 9/13/95 the missiles on Peng-chia, an island 50 km The South Korean Ministry of National SWEDEN WITH: off the northern tip of Taiwan, but decided Defense announces that the ROK Army will Australia and Russia, 161 not to because of possible Japanese protest spend $700 million on acquiring ATACMS over potential targeting of the Senkaku is- and MLRS systems from the U.S. between lands. 1996 and 1999. Kyodo (Tokyo), 9/19/95; in FBIS-CHI-95-163, 9/ Choson Ilbo (Seoul), 9/14/95, p.2; in FBIS-EAS- SYRIA 19/95 (5523). Krasnaya Zveda (Moscow), 10/3/95, 95-178, 9/14/95 (5256). p. 3 (5546).

9/25/95 10/95* South Korea’s Defense Ministry announces Taiwan is developing the 600 to 950 km- INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS the U.S. rejection of its request to abolish a range Tien Ma missile. International Institute of Strategic Studies, Military 1979 MoU restricting ROK missile devel- 8/30/95* opment and imports. Balance 1995-1996, 10/95, pp. 281-285 (5569). Son Ki-yong, Korea Times (Seoul), 9/26/95, pp. 1- The Israeli defense establishment reports that 2; in FBIS-EAS-95-186, 9/26/95 (5446). Syria has the capability to indigenously pro- 10/11/95 duce Scud missiles including the Scud-C, a Taiwan’s Defense Minister Chiang Chung- 10/11/95 SSM that can target the whole of Israel with ling says Taiwan has already begun missile South Korean Defense Minister Yi Yang-ho conventional and chemical warheads. Syria defense research as part of the defense bud- says South Korea will try to eliminate re- reportedly has 60 ballistic missile launch- get for the fiscal year ending 6/30/96. Some strictions on its missile development im- ers and has performed numerous Scud 300 billion New Taiwan dollars ($11 bil- posed by the ROK-U.S. Memorandum on launching drills and Scud-C tests. lion) is allocated for the next fiscal year, up Missile Control. According to Yi, the agree- Channel 2 Television Network (Jerusalem), 8/30/ 20 percent from FY 1995-96. Taiwan is also 95; in FBIS-NES-95-169, 8/31/95 (5425). ment does not allow South Korea to ad- considering the purchase of additional Pa- equately confront the danger posed by North triot air defense systems. SYRIA WITH: Korean missiles and places unnecessary con- Benjamin Yeh, CNA (Taipei), 10/12/95; in FBIS- Germany, 168 trols on peaceful space programs run by CHI-95-197, 10/12/95 (5526). private industry. Israel, 176 Yonhap (Seoul), 10/11/95; in FBIS-EAS-95-196, Russia, 192 10/13/95 10/11/95 (5374). In the Taiwanese Legislative Yuan, National Defense Minister Chiang Chung-ling says that the military will strengthen air defense capabilities by pursuing indigenous missile SPAIN development and purchasing foreign theater missile defense (TMD) systems. Bear Lee, CNA (Taipei), 10/14/95; in FBIS-CHI- 95-200, 10/14/95 (5519). SPAIN WITH: Canada, Germany, Netherlands, 10/20/95* and United States, 164 A third base for the Tien Kung SAM will Egypt, 166 be established on the offshore island of

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 195 Missile Developments

Penghua by 6/96. To achieve maximum Sofia Wu, CNA (Taipei), 7/13/95; in FBIS-CHI- is a new system, while Susan Boyd, spokes- interception potential, the 200 km-range 95-135, 7/13/95 (5551). woman for the U.S.’s UAV Joint Project Tien Kung is expected to be deployed at six Office, adds “the U.S. Army does not sup- bases, including the Tungyin base. The Tien 7/26/95 ply spare parts for the Shadow-600.” Thai Kung-1—which is not yet mass produced—has The last three of six Knox-class frigates on officials reportedly based their decision to already been deployed on two mainland Tai- lease from the U.S. to Taiwan dock at the purchase the Shadow-600 on AAI’s adver- wan bases. The Taiwanese military recently Tsuoying naval base. The frigates, which are tisement of the UAV as an upgraded Pio- completed missile tests combining Tien intended to counter Chinese submarines neer. Kung-1 and Tien Kung-2 missiles. operating in the deep waters off Taiwan’s Jason Glashow, Defense News, 8/7/95, pp. 4, 26 Chung-Kuo Shih-Pao (Taipei), 10/20/95, p. 2; in east coast, are equipped with Harpoon SSMs (5477). FBIS-CHI-95-206, 10/20/95 (5510). Benjamin Yeh, and other advanced weapon systems. They CNA (Taipei), 10/21/95; in FBIS-CHI-95-204, 10/ are intended to form part of a new anti-sub- Early 8/95 21/95 (5521). marine flotilla, “Fleet 168” to be based at A Thai delegation inspects AAI’s Shadow Chungcheng Naval Base in the northeastern UAV to determine whether it is a prototype 10/23/95* city of Suao, Ilan County. and whether it can be supported with spare Taiwanese Navy Commander Ku Chung-lien Benjamin Yeh, CNA (Taipei), 7/25/95; in FBIS- parts and other equipment. AAI Spokes- says Taiwan plans to acquire Northwest Wind CHI-95-143, 7/26/95 (5550). Sofia Wu, CNA man Paul Guse claims the Royal Thai Army (Taipei), 7/5/95; in FBIS-CHI-95-151, 7/5/95 and Revenger tactical missiles. has said the Shadow meets “initial require- Tzu-Li Wan-Pao (Taipei), 10/23/95, p. 3; in FBIS- (5550). CHI-95-213, 10/23/95 (5644). ments,” and he predicts a contract by 9/95. 10/23/95* Thailand will reportedly seek new contract TAIWAN WITH: Taiwan may discuss participation in devel- bids for its UAV requirement if both the France, 167 opment of the U.S. Theater Missile Defense Shadow and Searcher prove to be prototypes. Jason Glashow, Defense News, 8/7/95, pp. 4, 26 PRC, 188 (TMD) system during its annual arms ac- (5477). quisition meeting with the U.S. in 1996. TAIWAN WITH UNITED STATES Development costs, Chinese opposition, and 10/95 the delicate issue of establishing an early Thailand’s orders 7/12/95* warning satellite system for TMD operation McDonnell Douglas (MDC) AGM-84 Har- The U.S. is reported to have pressured Tai- may prevent Taiwan from joining. The anti- poon missiles as part of a deal to acquire wan into stopping development of its 1,000 missile system could use an advanced phased eight MDC F-18C/Ds from the U.S. Thai- km-range “Sky Horse” guided missile. array radar system as a substitute for a sat- land allocates 10 billion baht ($400 million) Pak Chae-pom, Seoul Sinmun, 7/12/95, p. 6; in ellite system, according to military sources. from its 1995-1996 defense budget for the FBIS-EAS-95-133 (5343). Chung-Kuo Shih-Pao (Taipei), 10/23/95, p. 1; in FBIS-CHI-95-213, 10/23/95 (5520). MDC F-18C/D package, but insists that it will proceed with the purchase only if the 7/13/95 deal includes Hughes AIM-120 advanced Taiwan launches its fifth indigenously built medium-range air-to-air missiles missile frigate, the Tzu Yiat, at the state- THAILAND (AMRAAM). The U.S. State Department run China Shipbuilding Corporation’s has yet to clear the AMRAAM sale although (CSBC) Kaohsiung shipyard. Equipped further talks are scheduled with Thailand with advanced radar, torpedoes, rockets, in 10/95. Before the deal can proceed, the SSMs, SAMs and indigenously built Hsiung THAILAND WITH: U.S. Congress requires a 50-day notifica- Feng-2 missiles, the Tzu Yi design is based Israel, 177 tion of the transfer. on the U.S. Perry-class frigate. Tzu Yi is Paul Lewis, Flight International, 10/25/95-10/31/ one of eight such frigates ordered under the 95, p. 15 (5389). THAILAND WITH UNITED STATES ROC Navy’s “Kwanghua No. 1” modernization plan, which is intended to upgrade Taiwan’s naval defense. Navy Com- 7/95 mander-in-Chief Admiral Ku Chung-lien Thailand suspends its purchase of the TURKEY says the eighth frigate has been canceled due Shadow-600 UAV from the U.S.’s AAI Cor- to a budget shortfall. The U.S. provided the poration pending a determination by Thai technology and materials for the first two officials that the U.S. military supports the frigates, while the Chungshan Institute of system and that Shadow is not a prototype. INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS Science and Technology will integrate the USAF General Kenneth Israel, director of ships’ weapons systems. the U.S. Defense Airborne Reconnaissance 9/95 Office, comments that the Shadow-600 UAV Turkish companies reveal designs for two

196 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 Missile Developments multiple rocket launchers in order to fulfill 8/95 Norway, Russia, and the needs of Turkey’s Land Forces. Ukraine’s Air Defense Troops “demonstrate” United States, 184 Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/30/95, p. 15 (5616). an S-300 missile defense system near Russia, 192 Kherson. Commander of the Air Defense Russia and United States, 193 TURKEY WITH UNITED STATES Troops Colonel General Mykhaylo Lopatin says the S-300 outperforms the Patriot mis- 9/16/95* sile system. The S-300 was developed The Turkish Army reportedly considers ac- jointly by Ukraine and Russia. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES quisition of additional Multiple Launch Holos Ukrayiny (Kiev), 9/2/95, p. 1; in FBIS-TAC- Rocket Systems (MLRS) from the U.S. de- 95-005, 9/2/95 (5383). (UAE) fense firm Loral Vought. The Turkish Army * already has 15 MLRS systems that were 8/28/95 deployed between 1989 and 1992. Ukraine’s two-stage, liquid-fuel Zenit-2 Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9/16/95, pp. 30, 34 (5387). rocket enters the commerical space launch UAE WITH UNITED STATES market. 9/20/95 Aviation Week and Space Technology, 8/21/95, p. 7/21/95-7/25/95 Turkey’s Prime Minister Tansu Ciller re- S6 (5426). In talks with U.S. Vice President Al Gore, signs, prompting speculation that several U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry, and 8/31/95 Turkish defense orders might be delayed. Vice Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of According to Robert Costa, Raytheon’s man- Ukraine successfully conducts the first com- Staff William Owens, UAE Chief of Staff ager for the Patriot project, his firm must mercial launch of its three-stage Tsyklon Lieutenant General Mohammed Bun Zayad wait to see whether the resignation will re- SLV, placing two remote-sensing satellites Al-Nahyan asks the U.S. to approve the ex- sult in “changes in Turkey’s attitude on de- into orbit; the launch takes place at the port to the UAE of High-Speed Anti-Radar fense procurement policies.” Raytheon says Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia. Missiles (HARMs), Standoff Land Attack it expects to initiate discussions with Tur- The first and second stages of the Tsyklon Missiles (SLAMs), and GBU-15 precision key over the sale of its Patriot SAM in the SLV are based on SS-9 missiles. The rocket glide bombs. According to an industry ex- near future. is built in Dnepropetrovsk, at the Yuzhnoye pert, if the U.S. proceeds with the deal, it Umit Enginsoy, Defense News, 9/25/95-10/1/95, pp. Design Office. According to Victor will transfer the earlier Block II or Block 3, 45 (5424). Chernyy, director of planning for Eastern III versions of HARM as opposed to the Europe and the former Soviet republics at Block IV variant currently in service with Garber International Associates Inc., the U.S. armed forces. The U.S. has never ex- Tsyklon launch will help Ukraine to gain a UKRAINE ported SLAM and has only transferred foothold in the commercial satellite launch HARM to South Korea and NATO coun- market. tries. The UAE has linked its missile ex- Lon Rains, Space News, 9/4/95-9/10/95, p. 10 (5451). port request to the success of a pending $8 billion weapons purchase from the U.S. that INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS 9/95 includes up to 80 advanced fighter aircraft. Philip Finnegan, Defense News, 8/7/95-8/13/95, pp. 8/95 Ukrainian Defense Minister Valeriy 4, 26 (5496). Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers approves Shmarov says Ukraine is on schedule for regulations to control the import and ex- meeeting its disarmament obligations un- port of missile-related technology, materi- der START I. Ukraine has dismantled 80 als, and equipment. The Ukrainian gov- missiles thus far and has taken four missile UNITED KINGDOM ernment also approves a list of missile-re- complexes off alert at Khmelnitskiy. Natalya Kondratyuk, Russian Public Television First lated items to be controlled, including com- Channel Network (Moscow), 9/29/95; in FBIS- plete ballistic missile systems, SLVs, and SOV-95-190, 9/29/95 (5450). research rockets that are capable of deliver- UNITED KINGDOM WITH: ing a payload to a range of 300 km or more. UKRAINE WITH: Chile, 165 The associated manufacturing technologies Belarus, Czech Republic, Russia, France, Germany, and Italy, 166 and equipment used to produce these sys- and NATO, 161 India, 172 tems are also controlled. Brazil, 164 Malaysia, 180 Kommersant-Daily (Moscow), 8/12/95, p. 3; in FBIS-SOV-95-157, 8/12/95 (5348). Kommersant- Iraq, 175 Daily (Moscow), 8/12/95, p. 3; in FBIS-TAC-95- Kazakhstan and Russia, 180 016-L, 8/12/95 (5626).

The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996 197 Missile Developments

UNITED KINGDOM WITH UNITED STATES rael, India, and Pakistan would only be re- 10/12/95, p. 3 (5646). New York Times, 10/7/95, quired to pledge that such imported com- p. 2 (5646). Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 10/5/ 95, p. A10 (5657). 10/4/95 puters would be used for non-military pur- U.S. Department of Defense officials sign a poses. Since 1993, computers capable of 10/23/95* performing 1,500 million theoretical opera- $284 million contract for the transfer of 65 The U.S. Navy’s 1994 Naval Intelligence tions per second (MTOPS) have been clas- conventionally-armed Tomahawk cruise Posture Statement asserts that the biggest sified as supercomputers in the U.S. The missiles to the U.K. The transfer will rep- threat to the world’s naval forces in the next DOD proposes to increase the designation resent the first time the U.S. has exported two decades will be from over 100 different of supercomputers to those capable of per- the Tomahawk land-attack cruise missile. types of ASCMs that are either planned, forming between 7,000 and 10,000 MTOPS. Defense News, 10/23/95, p. 38 (5608). under development, or in production. According to a DOD memo, Pentagon en- Robert Holzer, Defense News, 10/23/95-10/29/95, 10/16/95 gineers use computers capable of perform- p. 10 (5565). U.K. Defense Secretary Michael Portillo ing between 1,000 and 10,000 MTOPS to announces the Tomahawk acquisition dur- develop infrared trackers to pick-up incom- UNITED STATES WITH: ing a defense debate in the House of com- ing missiles, to develop ground radars for Australia and Germany, 160 mons. U.K. officals are scheduled to sign theater missile defense, and to design rocket Belarus, 162 the contract by 10/24/95. The Tomahawks motors. The U.S. Arms Control and Disar- Brazil, 163, 164 mament Agency and the U.S. Department will be deployed on the U.K.’s Trafalgar and Canada, Germany, Spain, and Swiftsure classes of nuclear-powered, of Energy argue that the current require- Netherlands, 164 hunter-killer submarines. ment to individually license machines ca- Defense News, 10/23/95, p. 38 (5608). pable of 500 MTOPS or greater should re- CIS, France, and South Africa, main in place for those countries believed 165 to be manufacturing WMD. Croatia, 165 Risk Report, 10/95, pp. 1, 12 (5484). Intelligence Egypt, 166 UNITED STATES Newsletter, 10/12/95, p. 3 (5646). France, Germany, and Italy, 166 10/6/95 Germany, 168 President Clinton removes all U.S. export Germany and Japan, 168 INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS restrictions on computer sales to NATO and Germany and Netherlands, 168 other Western allies and increases the limit Germany, Netherlands, and 6/95 at which licenses are needed for two other NATO, 168 Major General Ken Israel, head of the De- country categories. Under the new regula- India, 172 fense Airborne Reconnaissance Office tions, individual export licenses are needed India and Pakistan, 172 (DARO), predicts that under certain restric- for exports of computers capable of perform- Iran, 173 tions and depending on security classifica- ing over 10,000 MTOPS to Central Euro- Israel, 177 tions, the U.S. will export endurance UAV pean and Pacific countries. In addi- Japan, 179 tion, any exports to these countries of com- technology. Some senior U.S. defense offi- Kuwait, 180 puters capable of performing over 20,000 cials worry that exports of long-range and MTCR, 181 high-payload UAV technology will violate MTOPS may require safeguard measures at North Korea, 184 MTCR guidelines. States from Europe and the end-user site. Individual licenses are the Middle East have apparently expressed also required for exports of computers ca- Norway, Russia, and Ukraine, 184 interest in purchasing the medium-altitude pable of performing between 2,000 and Pakistan, 185 Predator UAV and the stealthy DarkStar 7,000 MTOPS to countries which are be- Pakistan and PRC, 185 UAV, which cost $3.2 and $10 million re- lieved to be involved in nuclear prolifera- PRC, 188 spectively. tion, including China, Israel, and countries Russia, 193 David A. Fulghum, Aviation Week and Space Tech- in the former Soviet Union. Iran, Iraq, Russia and Ukraine, 193 nology, 7/10/95, pp.40-43 (5311). Libya, and North Korea remain under a com- South Korea, 194 plete computer export embargo. The deci- * Taiwan, 196 10/95 sion to ease export restrictions has been criti- The Department of Defense (DOD) suggests cized because it is believed that increased Thailand, 196 that restrictions on supercomputer sales to access to supercomputers will help China, Turkey, 197 countries with long-range missile and India, Pakistan, Israel, and other nations to UAE, 197 nuclear weapon programs should be lifted. develop nuclear weapons. United Kingdom, 198 Under the proposal, countries such as Is- Pat Cooper and Theresa Hitchens, Defense News, 10/16/95, p. 26 (5485). Intelligence Newsletter,

198 The Nonproliferation Review/Winter 1996