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Development of the Stožice Shopping Centre in a Project Finance Scheme UNIVERSITY OF LJUBLJANA FACULTY OF ECONOMICS MASTER’S THESIS DEVELOPMENT OF THE STOŽICE SHOPPING CENTRE IN A PROJECT FINANCE SCHEME Ljubljana, June 7th, 2018 IVAN BARIŠIĆ AUTHORSHIP STATEMENT The undersigned Ivan Barišić, a student at the University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics, (hereafter: FELU), author of this written final work of studies with the title Development of the Stožice shopping centre in a project finance scheme, prepared under supervision of prof. dr. Aljoša Valentinčič and co-supervision of prof. dr. Andreja Cirman. D E C L A R E 1. this written final work of studies to be based on the results of my own research; 2. the printed form of this written final work of studies to be identical to its electronic form; 3. the text of this written final work of studies to be language-edited and technically in adherence with the FELU’s Technical Guidelines for Written Works, which means that I cited and / or quoted works and opinions of other authors in this written final work of studies in accordance with the FELU’s Technical Guidelines for Written Works; 4. to be aware of the fact that plagiarism (in written or graphical form) is a criminal offence and can be prosecuted in accordance with the Criminal Code of the Republic of Slovenia; 5. to be aware of the consequences a proven plagiarism charge based on the this written final work could have for my status at the FELU in accordance with the relevant FELU Rules; 6. to have obtained all the necessary permits to use the data and works of other authors which are (in written or graphical form) referred to in this written final work of studies and to have clearly marked them; 7. to have acted in accordance with ethical principles during the preparation of this written final work of studies and to have, where necessary, obtained permission of the Ethics Committee; 8. my consent to use the electronic form of this written final work of studies for the detection of content similarity with other written works, using similarity detection software that is connected with the FELU Study Information System; 9. to transfer to the University of Ljubljana free of charge, non-exclusively, geographically and time-wise unlimited the right of saving this written final work of studies in the electronic form, the right of its reproduction, as well as the right of making this written final work of studies available to the public on the World Wide Web via the Repository of the University of Ljubljana; 10. my consent to publication of my personal data that are included in this written final work of studies and in this declaration, when this written final work of studies is published. Ljubljana, June 7th, 2018 Author’s signature: _________________________ TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1 1 REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS ........................................................ 4 1.1 Real estate industry .............................................................................................. 4 1.1.1 Real estate cycles ............................................................................................. 6 1.1.2 Retail development .......................................................................................... 8 1.2 Steps in the development process ...................................................................... 10 1.3 Risks in the development process ...................................................................... 12 1.4 The role of flexibility and uncertainty .............................................................. 14 1.5 The theory of project finance and investment valuation ................................. 16 1.5.1 Investment valuation ..................................................................................... 18 1.5.2 Highest and best use analysis ........................................................................ 25 2 ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW Of SLOVENIA .................. 25 2.1 General information ........................................................................................... 25 2.2 Demographics ...................................................................................................... 27 2.3 Economic indicators ........................................................................................... 28 2.4 Taxation ............................................................................................................... 30 2.5 Comparison table of Slovenia and neighbouring countries ............................ 31 3 PROJECT OVERVIEW ........................................................................................... 32 3.1 Project overview .................................................................................................. 32 3.2 Location analysis ................................................................................................. 34 3.3 Zoning .................................................................................................................. 35 4 SPECIFIC MARKET OVERVIEW ........................................................................ 36 4.1 Retail market overview ...................................................................................... 36 4.2 Catchment area analysis .................................................................................... 37 4.3 Household consumption ..................................................................................... 40 4.4 Tourism and its potential impact on retail ....................................................... 42 4.5 Daily migrations and their potential impact on retail ..................................... 45 i 5 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY ............................................................................... 46 5.1 Highest and best use recommendation ............................................................. 50 5.2 SWOT analysis of Scenario A versus B ............................................................ 52 5.3 Tenant layout analysis ........................................................................................ 53 5.4 Systemic arrangement of the most optimal tenants ........................................ 55 5.5 Analysis of potential risks .................................................................................. 56 5.6 Plan proposal for managing exposure to identified risks ............................... 57 5.7 Rent level analysis ............................................................................................... 58 6 FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS ................................................................................ 59 6.1 Basic input data for evaluation.......................................................................... 59 6.1.1 Discount rate and capitalization rate ............................................................. 59 6.1.2 Depreciation, inflation and taxes ................................................................... 59 6.2 Revenue projections ........................................................................................... 60 6.3 Projection of operating expenses ....................................................................... 61 6.4 Cost of investment .............................................................................................. 62 6.5 Financing structure ............................................................................................ 63 6.6 Financial statements ........................................................................................... 66 6.7 Financial implications ........................................................................................ 68 6.7.1 Sensitivity analysis – investment costs and revenues ................................... 68 6.7.2 Sensitivity analysis – investment costs and capitalization rate ..................... 69 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................. 70 REFERENCE LIST .......................................................................................................... 72 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Overview of standard tax rates in Slovenia .......................................................... 31 Table 2: Comparison table of Slovenia and neighbouring countries .................................. 31 Table 3: Shopping malls in Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, Austria and Italy included in the research, taken into consideration for one day shopping trip destination from Ljubljana ............................................................................................................. 37 ii Table 4: Number of shop in five different main categories and subcategories for “Miscellaneous” category in Slovenia, neighbour countries and in the capital .. 38 Table 5: Number of 10 most frequent shops in the researched area.................................... 39 Table 6: Shops of brands, connected to active lifestyle, their frequency in shopping malls in the researched area with the popularity of the brands as per different rankings . 40 Table 7: Number of overnight stays in Ljubljana in 2015 and 2016 as per tourist accommodation establishment ............................................................................ 43 Table 8: Arrivals and overnight stays in Ljubljana in August 2017 .................................... 43 Table 9: Forecast for tourism in Slovenia: value 2017-2022 .............................................
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