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COUNTRY REPORT Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.

PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES “Palestine 194” FELIX DANE

JÖRG KNOCHA

In September the Palestinians want protocol, such a bid has to be submit- 6 September 2011 to become the 194 th member state of ted 35 days prior to the opening of the

the . A seemingly posi- General Assembly, but the example of

tive event. The Israeli minister for South Sudan shows that these regula- foreign affairs, though, is worried tions can be bypassed. It is to be ex- www.kas.de/ that there will be an unprecedented pected that the US will try to hold up www.kas.de bloodshed. Europe must stand united the vote on the accession. Though, now to reach a common position re- Lebanon being a country that supports garding the Palestinian venture. the Palestinian venture, will chair the Security Council at that time. In addi- On July 9 2011, the independence of tion, according to and South Sudan was officially announced. the Palestinian news agency Maan, nine Five days later, this new nation, which out of the 15 present members of the has almost the size of but a Security Council already recognize road system of less than 200 kilome- “Palestine” as a state or have declared tres, became member state no. 193 of their support for its full membership. the United Nations. The necessary Among them are China, , India resolution of the Security Council was and Brazil approved without a vote, and the ap- (http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewD proval of the General Assembly was etails.aspx?ID=416594 ). Therefore, al- given by acclamation. That shows that Malki assumes that the Security Council the process can be easy. For the Pal- will vote on the bid. estinians, though, it will not be so easy. “Palestine 194” is not only a strategy However, the US already declared that that conveys the wish to become the it will make use of its veto right. There- 194 th member state of the United Na- fore, the bid is likely to fail. But there is tions. It makes also reference to the already an alternative strategy. The resolution 194 of the General Assembly Palestinians could raise their status in from December 1948. This resolution the UN by having the General Assem- acknowledges the right to return to bly, which dos not have any veto pow- their homeland for all peaceable Pales- ers, vote on the issue when it will hold tinian refugees. its meeting at the end of September. A simple majority would suffice. This Determination on the Palestinian side would change their status from ob- server entity to non-member state. Since the end of July, the Palestinian According to the permanent Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, continues representative to the UN, Riyad Man- to express his goal to obtain full mem- sur, this would not hinder an accession bership for the state of “Palestine” in to the UN as a full member at a later the United Nations (UN). On September point in time. The two German states 20, the Palestinians will officially apply took this step before becoming a full for full membership. According to For- member of the UN in 1974. Also, Swit- eign Minister Riyad al-Malki, President zerland had this status in the past, Abbas will personally present the UN- whereas today only the Vatican holds membership bid to UN-General Secre- the status of a non-member state. In tary, Ban Ki-moon. According to UN- addition to the mentioning of the Pales-

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. tinian statehood, this would also make lican-controlled House of Representa- it possible for “Palestine” to become a tives is currently formulating a bill to PALESTINIAN full member in international organisa- stop the aid if the Palestinian Authority TERRITORIES tions such as UNESCO, UNICEF and the (PA) forms a government with links to FELIX DANE International Criminal Court (ICC). or seeks statehood recognition JÖRG KNOCHA Also, the Palestinians would have the at the United Nations outside of talks right to propose their own candidates with Israel. 6 September 2011 for positions in these organisations. Alternatively, the request for a status One of the main factors that are deci- upgrade could be submitted in form of sive for the consequences of “Palestine a resolution, which contains specifica- 194” is the opinion of the Palestinian www.kas.de/ramallah tions concerning the Palestinian state- people. In this regard, a survey of PSR www.kas.de hood such as the “”. If this revealed the following figures: resolution reaches a two-thirds major- ity, this would be a political success. • 76.2 percent of the Palestinians Though, it would not have any conse- support going to the UN to seek quences under international law. States recognition of a Palestinian state that would oppose the resolution could without returning to negotiations as still deny the Palestinian statehood. long as there are no acceptable However, according to the news agency terms of reference or a freeze on , in Beirut last August President settlement construction. Abbas announced that a status upgrade would not be an option. The only goal • 56.6 percent believe that two- would be a full membership. A failure of thirds of the General Assembly will the bid at the Security Council and the vote in favour of the Palestinian waiving of a (symbolic) success at the demand. General Assembly might increase the anger of the Palestinians toward the • 51.6 of the Palestinians in the and Israel but also to- and East ward their own leaders. It remains state that they will participate in unclear what the Palestinian strategy at peaceful demonstrations after the the UN will be exactly. It is clear, that recognition of the Palestinian state their ultimate ambition is to obtain full in order to break through check membership at the UN. But doubts points and to close army and set- remain on whether the Palestinian will tler roads in the West Bank. actually let go the option of a status upgrade in the very likely case that the • A great majority of 75.5 percent accession bid fails. states that the Palestinian National Authority should enforce Palestinian A survey from July 2011 by the Pales- over all the territories tinian Center for Policy and Survey of the West Bank, even if this leads Research (PSR), one of the partners of to confrontation with the Israeli oc- the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) cupation forces and settlers. Ramallah, revealed that the September initiative might also have negative This optimism, together with the will- consequences for the Palestinians. 65.9 ingness to act peacefully against the percent of the interviewed Palestinians occupation and their symbols, will believe that the occupation policies will make it difficult for President Abbas to become worse and settlement activities refrain from his plans without Israeli will increase. Another fear is that the concessions. New peace negotiations American congress will follow through on the basis of the “Green Line” be- on its threat and stop aid to the tween Israel and the West Bank as well amount of $ 500 million a year. Accord- as a complete stop of settlement con- ing to the New York Times, the Repub- struction would be the last opportunity

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. to prevent confrontations both in New millions of Palestinians are called on to York and the Palestinian Territories. go to the streets and demonstrate PALESTINIAN The Israeli government, though, con- unity. However, these demonstrations TERRITORIES tinues to refuse negotiations under shall not take place in the direct FELIX DANE these preconditions. neighbourhood of Israeli checkpoints or JÖRG KNOCHA settlements, but rather in the centre of The Israeli angst bigger Palestinian cities where Israeli 6 September 2011 security forces are no longer present. Despite the continuous affirmation of According to Maan, Palestinian security the Palestinian leadership, the Israeli forces have been instructed to prevent government does not believe that civil any escalation. www.kas.de/ramallah actions in and following September will www.kas.de be carried out peacefully. One reason Yet, how realistic is such a scenario? for that is the known readiness of the Marwan Barghouti, who was sentenced Palestinians to demonstrate against to lifelong detention by Israel and who check points and settlements. Another continues to have major influence reason is that, in the past, actions of within , called on the Palestinians Palestinian politicians did not always in the West Bank and Gaza as well as match their words. For instance, the in the diaspora to demonstrate. That late Palestinian leader Yassir Arafat such provocative activities on the bor- talked about peace in his (English) ders of Israel can easily escalate speeches and, in the eyes of the Is- showed the demonstrations on May 15 raelis, did nothing against the Palestin- and June 5. On these days, thousands ian terror in Israeli cities. The coordi- of unarmed Palestinian refugees nated series of attacks of a small terror marched from Lebanon and Syria to- organisation from Gaza in the south of wards the . On the Israel on August 18, in which eight Israeli-Lebanese border – where severe Israelis were killed by militant Pales- border violations were committed by tinians and Egyptians, additionally fos- Palestinians – as well as in the Israeli tered the doubts of the Israelis as con- occupied Golan, dozens of them died. cerns the peacefulness of the Palestin- In addition to that, the question is ian strategy. The changes in the Pales- raised on whether and how the Pales- tinian strategy under President Abbas tinian police will stop its fellow coun- and Prime Minister to- trymen from marching to the check- wards rule of law, institution building point in Qalandiya or to Bet El, a set- and economic growth are only slowly tlement just outside Ramallah. There, being recognised by Israel. In particu- almost certainly, violent clashes will lar, Israel’s foreign minister, Avigdor take place. According to Haaretz, the Lieberman, remains sceptical. Accord- Israeli forces plan to distribute tear gas ing to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, and stun grenades among settlers. he is afraid, that " the Palestinian Au- Also, the army drew a virtual “red line” thority is getting ready for bloodshed around every settlement. If Palestinians on a scale we haven't seen ". " The more stepped over it, Israeli commanders they speak about non-violent action the will have the right to shoot at the feet more they are preparing for blood- of the protesters. shed. " He, therefore, proposes to cut all ties with the PA in the case that they Aside from possibly violent escalations, bring forward their demand at the UN. Israel is also worried about something that could be summarised with the The Palestinian politicians take the term delegitimization. In Israel, it is Israeli angst seriously as shows their assumed that the Palestinian leadership categorical rejection of any violence as attempts to confront Israel with the well as the measures taken to prevent same means that once help overthrow it from happening. For September 20, the apartheid regime in South Africa.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. For some, this scenario might seem a rather balanced resolution, so that rather unlikely, but the Israel fear in there is a chance for Israel to approve PALESTINIAN this regard can not be shaken off as it. Also, President Abbas repeatedly TERRITORIES mere paranoia. Various UN organisa- made clear that peace negotiations FELIX DANE tions that consist predominantly of with Israel could be picked up at any JÖRG KNOCHA African and Asian development coun- time. To date, there have been no tries have repeatedly adopted the Pal- talks, because respecting the “Green 6 September 2011 estinian position without considering Line” as a precondition for negotiations Israeli arguments. Nonetheless, the is supported by the majority of the changes in Palestinian politics that has Palestinians, according to PSR. If Presi- been taken place since the late 1980ies dent Abbas makes concessions on that www.kas.de/ramallah should be taken into account. In 1988, matter, he will lose credibility. For the www.kas.de the Palestinians officially recognised the Israeli government, though, the “Green two-state-solution and with that the Line” is still inacceptable as a basis for Israeli right of existence. When the negotiations, because it is considered Palestinians will demand the General indefensible. Assembly in September to vote on a resolution on a Palestinian state, they The EU as a crucial stakeholder are going to quote earlier resolutions – as it is commonly done for resolutions In the coming weeks, it will be up to – on the necessity of a peaceful coexis- Europe to convince Israel and the Pal- tence of two states. This step would estinians on new peace negotiations on even strengthen Israel’s legitimacy, the basis of the “Green Line.” One op- because also states that have been tion would be a new road map to rather critical towards Israel are antici- peace, initiated by the pated to vote in favour of a two-state- (EU) that will be concluded by the solution. In a meeting with American whole Middle East Quartet (UN, EU, congress members, President Abbas USA, and Russia). The EU is increas- once again underscored that it is not ingly regarded as an important actor in his intention to delegitimize or isolate the region. One reason is that the EU Israel by going to the UN. responded more rapidly to the “” than most of the other actors. The Israeli allegation that the Palestini- The US is for both sides no longer a ans would take unilateral measures is credible peace facilitator. Whereas the rooted in the experience that unilateral Israelis are profoundly sceptical of steps have frequently changed the President , the Palestini- status quo in the Palestinian Territories ans leadership is of the opinion that and that way hindered peaceful solu- Washington is not pressuring Israel tion in the past. This allegation, enough. Therefore, it is especially im- though, can be raised for both conflict portant for the EU to demonstrate parties. On the one hand, there have unity. With a uniform vote in the Secu-

been the takeover of Hamas in Gaza rity Council, the EU could demonstrate

and the inability of the PA to hold elec- that it assumes its role as a crucial Imprint tions. On the other hand, Israel in 2005 stakeholder with regard to foreign af- pulled out of Gaza without consulting fairs and that it is able to meet the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung e.V. the Palestinian leadership and until challenges of the 21 st century. Regard- Foreign Office Palestinian today continues to build settlements in less of what the Palestinians will Territories the West Bank. The strategy “Palestine achieve at the UN, it will be necessary International Cooperation 194”, though, can not be seen as an- to resume negotiations as soon as pos- other example of unilateralism. There is sible. Peace between the two people

no other international body that is can not be achieved through a decision PO Box 27242 | 91272 Jerusalem more authentic in representing and of the UN, but only through serious Phone defending multilateral values. The Pal- negotiations, which are supported by +972 2 24043-05 estinians should make sure to present the Middle East Quartet. Fax +972 2 24043-07