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Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade MSBC Appraisal Summary

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Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade MSBC Appraisal Summary Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade MSBC Appraisal Summary September 2011 CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Scheme Objectives 1 2 CURRENT SERVICE AND PASSENGER DEMAND 3 2.1 Existing Rail Service 3 2.2 Base Rail Demand 3 2.3 Recent Growth in Base Rail Demand 4 3 MODELLING APPROACH 6 3.1 Introduction 6 3.2 Scheme Elements 6 3.3 Modelling Approach 7 3.4 Summary of Approach 12 4 MODEL RESULTS 15 4.1 Base Demand on the Coventry – Nuneaton Line 15 5 ECONOMIC APPRAISAL 21 5.1 Introduction 21 5.2 Capital Costs 21 5.3 Operating Costs 21 5.4 Revenues and Subsidy 22 5.5 User and Non – User Benefits 22 5.6 Economic Appraisal 23 5.7 Cost Benefit Analysis Results 28 Table 1 Existing Timetable 3 Table 2 Preferred Scheme Timetable (Half-hourly) 8 Table 3 Coventry Arena Events Traffic Forecast 12 Table 4 Summary of Approach to Modelling Key Scheme Impacts 13 Table 5 Coventry – Nuneaton Passengers: Model vs November 2009 15 Table 6 2016 Do Minimum Weekday Passenger Forecast (2-hour periods) 16 Table 7 2016 Do Minimum Annual Passenger Forecast 17 Table 8 Historical West Midlands Rail Patronage Growth 17 Table 9 2016 Do Something Weekday Passenger Forecast (2-hour periods) 17 Table 10 2016 Do-Something Visum Model Annual Passenger Forecast 18 Table 11 2016 Long Distance and Arena Event Trips 19 Table 12 2016 Combined Annual Passenger Forecast 19 Table 13 2016 Additional Annual Passenger Forecast (DS – DM) 19 Table 14 Mode Share Analysis - Screenlines 20 Table 15 Capital Costs (1st Quarter 2011) 21 st Table 16 Annual Additional Operating Costs (1 Quarter 2011) 21 Table 17 Revenues and Subsidy, 2002 prices and Outturn Prices 22 Table 18 Breakdown of Quantified Benefits 24 Table 19 Monetised Time Benefits by Size of Time Saving (£k) 24 Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade, Appraisal Summary, September 2011 Table 20 Quantified Wider Economic Benefits (£k PV). 28 Table 21 Economic Appraisal – Preferred Scheme (Present Values) 28 Table 22 Economic Appraisal – Preferred Scheme Capped 2026 29 Table 23 Economic Appraisal – Next Best Alternative 29 Table 24 Sensitivity Test Results 30 Figure 1 Coventry – Nuneaton Corridor 2 Figure 2 Coventry – Nuneaton Line within the Rail Network 2 Figure 3 Key Existing Passengers Flows 4 Figure 4 Passenger Growth March 2007 – September 2010 5 Figure 5 Scheme Elements and Impacts 6 Figure 6 Public Transport Network 9 Figure 7 Coventry PT Visum Model Zones 10 Figure 8 Highway Model network 10 Figure 9 Demand Forecasting and Appraisal Process 14 Figure 10 Change in Accessibility to Coventry City Centre 25 Figure 11 Change in Accessibility to Coventry Arena. 26 Figure 12 Change in Accessibility to Bedworth Station 26 Figure 13 Change in Accessibility to Bermuda Park 27 Figure 14 Change in Accessibility to Nuneaton 27 Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade, Appraisal Summary, September 2011 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background Coventry City Council, Warwickshire County Council and the Integrated Transport Authority for the West Midlands (Centro) are bidding for funding from the Department for Transport (DfT) for upgrading the existing railway line between Coventry and Nuneaton. The Coventry to Nuneaton corridor (see Figure 1) lies partly within the city of Coventry and partly in Warwickshire. The northern area includes the principal settlements of Nuneaton and Bedworth which are located on the Warwickshire Coalfield and have been traditionally associated with industries which have over the last 20 years experienced significant industrial decline and consequently suffer high levels of unemployment, low income levels, and several areas of multiple deprivation. The population of Coventry City and Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough is significant, most recently estimated to be around 430,000 in 2008. The Coventry – Nuneaton rail line runs between the Trent Valley Line at Nuneaton and the West Coast Main line to Birmingham at Coventry station. The route forms an important connection between the lines running further north and south, particularly the Nuneaton – Leicester and Coventry – Leamington Spa / Banbury / Oxford routes. The rail corridor is 10 miles long with double track, recently re-laid. There is a 45 mph line speed and the corridor has recently been re-signalled to modern standards with the potential for 60mph line speeds. It is an important route for freight with 2 sidings (the Prologis branch and Murco Petroleum at Bedworth) and is regular used by container trains. Figure 2 shows the corridor within the rail network and the stations on the route. The existing service calls at Coventry, Bedworth and Nuneaton only and operates broadly hourly. 1.2 Scheme Objectives The Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade scheme involves providing a half hourly service and calling additionally at two new stations at Bermuda and Coventry Arena. This will increase accessibility to the rail network and provide a more attractive level of service which will assist in providing improved connectivity to aid transport movements and encourage regeneration and economic growth in the corridor. The primary objectives of the scheme are; • Improved access to Coventry, the Arena development area, the Bermuda Park development area and Nuneaton supporting the economic growth and regeneration of these areas in a sustainable manner. • To provide high quality, sustainable, public transport in this key corridor. The scheme also works towards reducing congestion and carbon emissions by offering a greater range of travel options. • Improved performance on the national rail network through removal of the Coventry Nuneaton service from the West Coast Main Line through provision of a bay platform at Coventry. Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade, Appraisal Summary, September 2011 Page 1 of 30 It will also support the major Friargate redevelopment proposal that has the potential to deliver 15,000 new jobs to the area directly adjacent to Coventry station. Figure 1 Coventry – Nuneaton Corridor Figure 2 Coventry – Nuneaton Line within the Rail Network Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade, Appraisal Summary, September 2011 Page 2 of 30 2 CURRENT SERVICE AND PASSENGER DEMAND 2.1 Existing Rail Service The timetable for the current service is shown in Table 1. The timetable is broadly hourly on Weekdays and Saturdays with a gap in the mid morning. Table 1 Existing Timetable Nuneaton 0637 0737 0828 0930 1110 1210 1310 1410 1510 1610 1710 1810 1910 2010 2110 2220 Bermuda Park ------ - --------- Bedworth 0644 0744 0835 0937 1117 1217 1317 1417 1517 1617 1717 1817 1917 2017 2117 2227 Arena ------ - --------- Coventry 0656 0757 0847 0953 1134 1234 1338 1434 1534 1634 1738 1834 1938 2034 2134 2239 Journey Time 0019 0020 0019 0023 0024 0024 0028 0024 0024 0024 0028 0024 0028 0024 0024 0019 Coventry 0612 0706 0804 0906 1045 1145 1245 1345 1445 1545 1645 1745 1845 1945 2045 2144 Arena ------ - --------- Bedworth 0623 0717 0815 0917 1056 1156 1256 1356 1456 1556 1656 1756 1856 1956 2056 2155 Bermuda Park ------ - --------- Nuneaton 0630 0727 0823 0925 1104 1203 1303 1403 1503 1603 1703 1803 1903 2003 2103 2202 Journey Time 0018 0021 0019 0019 0019 0018 0018 0018 0018 0018 0018 0018 0018 0018 0018 0018 2.2 Base Rail Demand Existing Lennon Data for 2009/10 for the Coventry – Nuneaton service code (3280) provides an estimated base demand of 217,170 passengers per annum of which 44% are wholly within the corridor and 56% involve interchange at either / or Coventry and Nuneaton. The Lennon figure is likely to be underestimated as it is based on ticket sales data and under-forecasts flows against counts primarily due to a range of tickets that don’t have a specific origin – destination. In particular the data fails to capture Centro area season tickets sales which are available with add-ons for stations in the wider journey-to-work area including Bedworth and Nuneaton. Therefore some allowance needs to be made for these additional flows and other factors such other area tickets (eg: day rovers), staff pass use, ticketless travel and potential differences between the modeling and actual behaviour of through passengers. A one day rail passenger survey undertaken in Autumn 2009 revealed that 52% of trips have at least one end of the journey off the line and 8% of trips are through trips with neither origin nor destination between Coventry and Nuneaton. Therefore the proportion of through trips may also be underestimated by Lennon by 4%. The top destinations quoted off the Coventry to Nuneaton line are; • Leicester (25%) • Birmingham, London (5% each) • Loughborough, Nottingham, Tamworth, Leamington, Oxford and Rugby (3% each); and, • Hinckley and Atherstone (2% each). The relative importance of the existing flows on the line is shown in Figure 3. Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Line Upgrade, Appraisal Summary, September 2011 Page 3 of 30 Figure 3 Key Existing Passengers Flows 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% % of the route total 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Coventry - Nuneaton Passenger loadingCo countsventry - onBe dthewo rtCoventry-Nuneatonh rail corridor were sourced from London Midland (LM) the train operating company. These counts were collected by ticket inspectors on each serviceCoventr fory -a Leicester week and consist of 3 to 5 observations. These were compared with the result of the 1 day underestimated trips – especially in theC interpeakoventry - L andondo pmn peak periods. The LM counts were 20% to 25% higher than the 1 day survey. Coventry - North 2.3 Recent Growth in Base Rail Demand Coventry - South In the last decade engineering works associated with the NWestunea toCoastn - Be dwoMainrth Line modernisation resulted in the rail service Nuneat n - Leicester for long periods, depressing rail use. Passenger demand has been growing osteadily since the rail service was restored. Figure 4 presents the passenger demand onNun theeat on - London Coventry – Nuneaton line from t sales data.
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