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Architectural Options and Optimization of Suborbital Space Tourism Vehicles

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Architectural Options and Optimization of Suborbital Space Tourism Vehicles Chair of Astronautics Architectural Options and Optimization of Suborbital Space Tourism Vehicles Author: Markus Guerster Master Thesis, RT-MA 2017/2 Supervisors Prof. Edward F. Crawley Prof. Ulrich Walter Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Institute of Astronautics Massachusetts Institute of Technology Technical University of Munich Dr. Christian Hock Christian Bühler CEO Institute of Astronautics in -tech industry GmbH Technical University of Munich Chair of Astronautics “I wanted to be involved in something that has an outside chance of doing some good. If there is not something meaningful in what you are doing above and beyond any commercial returns, then I think life is a bit hollow.” Elon Musk, 2013 II Chair of Astronautics Erklärung Ich erkläre, dass ich alle Einrichtungen, Anlagen, Geräte und Programme, die mir im Rahmen meiner Masterarbeit von der TU München bzw. vom Lehrstuhl für Raumfahrttechnik zur Verfügung gestellt werden, entsprechend dem vorgesehenen Zweck, den gültigen Richtlinien, Benutzerordnungen oder Gebrauchsanleitungen und soweit nötig erst nach erfolgter Einweisung und mit aller Sorgfalt benutze. Insbesondere werde ich Programme ohne besondere Anweisung durch den Betreuer weder kopieren noch für andere als für meine Tätigkeit am Lehrstuhl vorgesehene Zwecke verwenden. Mir als vertraulich genannte Informationen, Unterlagen und Erkenntnisse werde ich weder während noch nach meiner Tätigkeit am Lehrstuhl an Dritte weitergeben. Ich erkläre mich außerdem damit einverstanden, dass meine Masterarbeit vom Lehrstuhl auf Anfrage fachlich interessierten Personen, auch über eine Bibliothek, zugänglich gemacht wird. Ich erkläre außerdem, dass ich diese Arbeit ohne fremde Hilfe angefertigt und nur die in dem Literaturverzeichnis angeführten Quellen und Hilfsmittel benutzt habe. Garching, den 28. April 2017 Name: Markus Guerster Matrikelnummer: 03628540 III Chair of Astronautics Zusammenfassung Der Ansari X-Prize legte den Grundstein für den suborbitalen Weltraumtourismus. Seitdem ist sowohl das technische wie auch wirtschaftliche Interesse deutlich angestiegen. Es stellt sich daher die augenscheinliche Frage: Welche System-Architektur verfügt über die beste Kombination aus Sicherheit und wirtschaftlicher Rentabilität? Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, diese Frage zu adressieren. Dazu wird der architektonische Design Space gründlich durchsucht und jede optimierte Architektur nach Kosten- und Sicherheitskriterien ausgewertet. Im Allgemeinen haben Systeme, die für eine spezifische Funktion gebaut werden, gerade in frühen Phasen einen großen architektonischen Design Space. Es werden zahlreiche Konzepte entwickelt, gebaut und getestet. Sobald sich das Produkt weiterentwickelt, stellen sich bestimmte Konzepte als überlegen heraus und die im Einsatz befindliche Vielfalt reduziert sich [1]. Als Beispiel beachte man die Mannigfaltigkeit von „Flugmaschinen“ in den Jahrzehnten vor und nach den Wrights Brüdern. Ursprüngliche architektonische Entscheidungen wie Doppeldecker, Druckpropeller oder Entenflügel überdauern nicht zwingend als das dominierende Konzept [2]. Dieses Phänomen einer großen Vielfalt an verschiedenen Konzepten kann derzeit in der suborbitalen Raumfahrttouristenbranche beobachtet werden. Das spezifische Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, den Design Space so komplett wie möglich zu untersuchen und die Architekturen zu identifizieren, die realisierbar und voraussichtlich erfolgreich sind. Hierbei werden die Grenzen des plausiblen Design Space bestimmt und die Entscheidungen identifiziert, die diesen Entwurfsraum definieren. Anschließend wird ein parametrisches Modell für alle möglichen Optionen erstellt und die Architekturen hinsichtlich der Zielfunktionen optimiert. Die nicht-dominierten Architekturen werden in der Sicherheits- und Kostendimension bewertet. Aus diesen wird eine geringe Anzahl an Entwürfen ausgewählt, die eine detaillierte Analyse rechtfertigen. Zuletzt wird eine Handlungsempfehlung ausgesprochen, wie der Entscheidungsprozess für eine Architektur strukturiert werden könnte. IV Chair of Astronautics Abstract Since the creation of the Ansari X-Prize, a significant technical and commercial interest has developed in sub-orbital space tourism. An obvious question arises: what system architecture will provide the best combination of safety and economic return? The objective of this thesis is to address this question, by searching comprehensively through the architectural design space, and evaluating optimized architectures for cost and safety. Generally, in the early stages of development, systems built for a specific function lie in a broad architectural space with numerous concepts being developed, built and tested. As the product matures, certain concepts become more dominant and the variety of concepts in use decreases [1]. Consider the wide range of “flying machines” in the decades before and after the Wrights. History teaches us that the original architectural decisions (e.g. biplane, pusher propeller and canard) do not always survive as the dominant design [2]. This phenomenon of a wide variety of concepts can currently be observed in the suborbital tourism industry. The specific objective of this work is to explore the design space as thoroughly as possible to identify architectures that are more likely to succeed. In doing so we will identify the limits of the plausible design space and identify decisions that define the space. Then, we will build a parametric model for each of the viable options, and optimize that architecture with respect to the objective functions. Finally, we will assess the un-dominated architectures in the risk and cost dimensions, identify the small handful of designs that merit more refined design analysis and we give guidance to structure the decision-making process to choose one architecture. V Chair of Astronautics Acknowledgment First, I would like to thank my advisor, Edward F. Crawley, Ford Professor of Engineering at MIT and Founding President of Skoltech. Ed has introduced me to the field of system architecture and taught me how to think of things as systems. He has been a constant source of guidance and advice, both professional and personal. As an advisor, he was hands-off for weeks at a time allowing me to work on new ideas. At the right time, we worked intensively to refine the thoughts. I appreciate the confidence he placed in me from the very beginning on and look forward to starting my PhD under his advice. Without the support of my home university Professor Ulrich Walter, this thesis would not have been possible. He connected me with Ed and was the key to make this program reality. I would also like to thank Christian Bühler who took care of the organizational aspects related to this thesis. I very deeply thank Christopher Frank for sharing his design framework code with me. I am grateful to Dr. Christian Hock from in-tech industry for being my Mentor and supporting my plan. Without him the financing of this program would still be uncertain. In addition, this program was partly financed by a scholarship from the Heinrich und Lotte Mühlfenzl Stiftung. I would also like to thank all lab-mates from 33-409. They made the office a warm and inspirational place for sometimes 7 days a week. Particularly, I want to thank Yaroslav Menshenin, Axel Garcia Burgos, Narek Shougarian, Íñigo Portillo Barrios, Marc Sanchez, Johannes Norheim, Juan José Garau Luis, Anne Collin, George Lordos, Bastien Gorret and Veronica Foreman. I wish all of them the best of luck for their future and hope to cross path with all of them again. There are many other individuals around the campus that helped to make my time at MIT unique. It would be too lengthy to list them all. We spent some great weekends of Skiing, Climbing and Hiking in the Whites. My roommate, Carson Darling, made my arrival and stay as easy as it can get. Finally, and very importantly, I want to thank my family: my parents, Petra and Alfred, and my brother Tobias. My mum gave me everything as a child without ever asking for return. My dad passed on the engineering spirit and set an example to aspire to. I have learned and I am still learning so many things from my him. And foremost, I would like to thank my girlfriend and best friend Jana. Without her selfless encouragement and optimism, I would not be the person I am today. VII Chair of Astronautics Table of Content 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Motivation ................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 General thesis objectives ......................................................................................... 3 1.3 Literature review ...................................................................................................... 3 1.3.1 System Architecture ......................................................................................... 3 1.3.2 Design frameworks for MSV ............................................................................. 6 1.4 Specific thesis objectives ........................................................................................ 7 1.5 Thesis Overview ....................................................................................................... 8 2 Defining the plausible design space ................................................................ 9 2.1 Building a database of existing concepts ...............................................................
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