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Why T-X Losers UK to EASA How NASA Is Europe’s Flight Plan Are Not Quitting ‘Cheerio’ Cutting Red Tape for AI in Aviation

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FEATURES 16 | Ground Stop Airlines and OEMs seek bailouts and scramble to regroup as the coronavirus crisis rages 28 | UK EASA Exit Industry is not impressed with the UK’s plans to break from the European regulator 33 | Quantifying the benefits of PROPULSION ADS-B In applications 50 | NASA planning electrified 36 | T-X Redux propulsion flight demonstrations A new U.S. Air Force contract BUSINESS called the RFX revives hope for 34 | Lockheed signals change is URBAN AIR MOBILITY the losing T-X contract bidders coming with new CEO 52 | Transcend Air refines design 48 | South American Defense DEFENSE for intercity VTOL We spotlight some of the defense 38 | As USAF fleet plans evolve, can TECHNOLOGY requirements that could translate F-35A program survive intact? into new acquisitions this decade 53 | Europe guiding industry on 40 | MDA seeks two-year schedule applying AI to aviation 56 | Building Artemis bump for new GBI option NASA speeds procurement SPACE processes to meet 2024 deadline 41 | Possible new “engine war” 54 | Northrop partners with DARPA to land crew on Moon recasts P&W as champion of to build robotic satellite servicer competition 57 | SLS cost overrun triggers DEPARTMENTS 42 | Marines dial back UAS strategy congressional alert 6 | Feedback 14 | Leading Edge 43 | U.S. Army pushes ahead with 58 | SpaceX founder bemoans slow 7 15 | Who’s Where | Launch Pad Black Hawk replacement pace of innovation 8-9 | First Take 64 | Classified 10 | Up Front 65 | Contact Us 44 | Korean Air designs stealth 62 | Space Force ups the launch ante 12 | Going Concerns 65 | Aerospace drone demonstrator EDITORIAL Calendar 46 | Post-Brexit defense review 66 | Commercial aviation will survive challenged by costs and the coronavirus and thrive again COMMERCIAL AVIATION coronavirus 24 | COVID-19 outbreak ushers in new cabin-cleaning techniques ON THE COVER Air transport ground to a halt in many parts of the world as the COVID-19 pandemic tightened its 26 | ET302 interim report piles on grip on Europe and North America. Starting on page 16, Aviation Week’s global team of reporters MAX, ignores pilots provides an in-depth look at the biggest crisis ever to hit the commercial air transport industry—and 30 | UK regions could suffer from how aircraft manufacturers and their suppliers are bracing for financial carnage in the coming months. Flybe failure fallout Photo by John Lund /Getty Images Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST 31 | Europe’s LCCs embark on new partnerships DIGITAL EXTRAS Access exclusive online features from articles accompanied by this icon.

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 3 Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 Bureau Chiefs Auckland Adrian [email protected] Beijing GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe Bradley Perrett [email protected] dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Cape Canaveral Irene Klotz [email protected] IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Chicago Lee Ann Shay [email protected] Market Brieﬁ ngs. Frankfurt Jens Flottau [email protected] Houston These sector-specifi c intelligence Mark Carreau [email protected] briefi ngs empower busy Kuala Lumpur executives to stay-ahead of the Marhalim Abas [email protected] London market, identify opportunities and Tony Osborne [email protected] drive revenue. Los Angeles Guy Norris [email protected] Lyon Thierry Dubois [email protected] Moscow LEARN MORE: Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] aviationweek.com/marketbrieﬁ ngs New Delhi Jay Menon [email protected] Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected]

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4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] WHEN Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, INNOVATION Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm STRIKES, Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria THE MISSION Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins SUCCEEDS. Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 Bureau Chiefs Auckland Adrian [email protected] Beijing GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe Bradley Perrett [email protected] dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Cape Canaveral Irene Klotz [email protected] IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Chicago Lee Ann Shay [email protected] Market Brieﬁ ngs. Frankfurt Jens Flottau [email protected] Houston These sector-specifi c intelligence Mark Carreau [email protected] briefi ngs empower busy Kuala Lumpur executives to stay-ahead of the Marhalim Abas [email protected] London market, identify opportunities and Tony Osborne [email protected] drive revenue. Los Angeles Guy Norris [email protected] Lyon Thierry Dubois [email protected] Moscow LEARN MORE: Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] aviationweek.com/marketbrieﬁ ngs New Delhi JOINT STRIKE MISSILE Jay Menon [email protected] Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Powered by 5th-generation technology, Joint Strike Missile Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] (JSM) delivers proven performance and precision against Wichita today’s evolving threats. JSM’s stand-off range of up to 350 Molly McMillin [email protected] miles keeps pilots out of harm’s way, accurately engaging President, Aviation Week Network adversaries and enabling the mission. Gregory Hamilton Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon RAYTHEON.COM/JSM

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WHICH ENGLISH? these unsalable aircraft, although one of If each of these crews had main- Elizabeth Mathews is right in her Howard Hughes’ former girlfriends did tained configuration, climbed to a safe analysis (March 9-22, p. 12), but which make an offer. maneuvering altitude and leveled off, English language are we talking about? The 880, however, proved its tough- the MCAS would never have come into I remember an AW&ST paper titled ness when the machines the contractor play. Public reports to date indicate “Translating English into English” at had used successfully some years ear- neither crew ever reduced power from the time the U.S. bought British AV-8B lier to chop up then-retiring Constel- takeoff thrust. This allowed the aircraft Harriers. lations failed to do serious damage to to eventually accelerate to Vmco and the 880s. Incidentally, Elvis’ 880 was beyond, making manual trim inputs Andre Fournerat, Charenton-le-Pont, acquired by Delta Air Lines through impossible due to air loads. France its purchase of Northeast Airlines, also The above crashes are not the only owned by Hughes. ones where lack of the flight crew’s As an aside, the CJ805 that powered ability to manually fly the aircraft was the 880, in addition to being fuel-hun- a factor. Asian Airlines 214, Air France gry, was almost certainly the most unre- 447 and Atlas Air 3591 are just three liable engine ever produced by GE. Yet additional examples where airline flight it may have been the source of that com- crews unsuccessfully attempted to pany’s later success because, in spite of manually fly the aircraft. the engine’s troubles, the company’s My suggestions are to first strong- customer service in dealing with them ly recommend that when one mode IN PICTURES LTD/CORBIS/GETTY IMAGES IN PICTURES LTD/CORBIS/GETTY effectively paved the way for industry (autopilot) is disconnected, the oth- acceptance later. er automation mode (auto-throttle) also be disconnected. This leaves no LOCAL LANGUAGES Robin H. H. Wilson, Seattle doubt that the pilot is controlling both As an ICAO English language profi- modes. My second suggestion is that ciency rater and head of training, I MANUAL PROFICIENCY recurrent training include some time could not agree more with Elizabeth I applaud the recent move toward spent at both high and low altitudes in Mathews’ comments on English including simulator training as part manual flight. language testing requirements and of the Boeing 737 MAX return to All pilots should have confidence especially with regard to required service reported in “Boeing MAX that when necessary they can manu- training for aviation professionals Simulator Training Is Taking Shape” ally control the aircraft in all phases (March 9-22, p. 12). (Feb. 27-March 8, p. 20). As a former of flight. However, one of the biggest threats airline captain and line check airman, to airline pilots operating in a global I observed an increasing tendency by David A Vecchi, Park City, Utah environment is the persistent use of lo- pilots to defer to automation and a cal language by controllers and pilots reluctance to fly the aircraft manually. PUMP PRESSURE alike. Fly into Madrid or Paris any day, This is a very disturbing trend. The article “Refueling Revisited” and 50% of the crucial air traffic control While aircraft manufacturers contin- (Feb. 27-March. 8, p. 42) states: “The communication is conducted in Spanish ue to move toward automation (to one Air Force uses a boom that can pump or in French. day incorporate artificial intelligence) up to 880 gal. per minute while the As long as we tolerate this arrogance, to prevent flight outside the aircraft drogue system can pump 220-290 gal. all our other efforts will bear little fruit. envelope, these “fixes” are years away. at the same rate.” And when, despite the designer’s best Gallons per minute is a rate type Helmut Kunz, Ratingen, Germany efforts, automation fails, pilots must measurement. I believe it should state still be proficient at taking over manu- “at the same pressure.” ‘TOUGH OLD BIRD’ ally and putting the aircraft in a stable As a follow-up to Lee Guthrie’s sis- attitude, troubleshooting the issue and Kerry Moore, Round Rock, Texas ter’s recall of the “beautiful Convair returning the aircraft to a safe landing. 880” (March 9-22, p. 6), I should add In the case of both 737 MAX crashes, that, from personal experience, the the original “abnormal” had nothing to 880 was a “tough old bird.” As vice do with the Maneuvering Character- CLARIFICATION president of technical services for istics Augmentation System (MCAS). “Once-Abandoned Light-Attack Acqui- TWA in the 1970s, I was responsible The original malfunction was the angle sition Revived, Again” (Feb. 27-March 8, for the mechanical performance of its of attack/stall warning system, which p. 50) should have stated that other fleet, which then included 24 880s ac- also affected one of the pilots’ airspeed aircraft besides the Iomax are in con- quired by its former owner, Howard and altimeter indications. tention for Mission Set 2. Hughes, who established its specifica- tions with Convair. When those gas-guzzling airplanes Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, were grounded by the fuel prices fol- 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: lowing the 1973-74 oil embargo, I inher- [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity; ited responsibility for the parting-out of a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACK WHO’S WHERE

WHICH ENGLISH? these unsalable aircraft, although one of If each of these crews had main- has been hired affairs at Kymeta Corp. and vice presi- Elizabeth Mathews is right in her Howard Hughes’ former girlfriends did tained configuration, climbed to a safe Tiphaine Louradour corporate planning and financial as International dent of trade policy and export control analysis (March 9-22, p. 12), but which make an offer. maneuvering altitude and leveled off, strategy. Ward was global head of Launch Services for EADS North America. English language are we talking about? The 880, however, proved its tough- the MCAS would never have come into finance at BCG Digital Ventures and president. Louradour Bollore Logistics I remember an AW&ST paper titled ness when the machines the contractor play. Public reports to date indicate group-level chief financial officer for had been president has promoted “Translating English into English” at had used successfully some years ear- neither crew ever reduced power from Yves Computer Science Corp. He began his of global commercial to CEO of the time the U.S. bought British AV-8B lier to chop up then-retiring Constel- takeoff thrust. This allowed the aircraft Laforgue career at Lockheed Martin. sales at United Launch the Americas region Harriers. lations failed to do serious damage to to eventually accelerate to Vmco and Pentastar Aviation has hired Brent Alliance. from Asia-Pacific the 880s. Incidentally, Elvis’ 880 was beyond, making manual trim inputs Hanson as account manager and cli- BAE Systems has chief operating officer. Andre Fournerat, Charenton-le-Pont, acquired by Delta Air Lines through impossible due to air loads. ent relations representative. Hanson promoted Tom Arseneault to president He succeeds Tony France its purchase of Northeast Airlines, also The above crashes are not the only was regional sales director for Tex- and chief executive officer from pres- Rodrigues. owned by Hughes. ones where lack of the flight crew’s tron Aviation. ident and chief operating officer. He Killick Aerospace Group has hired Bill As an aside, the CJ805 that powered ability to manually fly the aircraft was Lockheed Martin has elected U.S. succeeds Jerry DeMuro, who moves to Molloy as chief operating officer, a new the 880, in addition to being fuel-hun- a factor. Asian Airlines 214, Air France Marine Corps Gen. (ret.) Joseph F. BAE executive vice president of stra- position. Molloy held various leader- gry, was almost certainly the most unre- 447 and Atlas Air 3591 are just three Dunford, Jr. to its board. He will serve tegic initiatives and will serve on the ship positions in both the commercial liable engine ever produced by GE. Yet additional examples where airline flight on the classified business and security U.S. board. and business aircraft divisions at Bom- it may have been the source of that com- crews unsuccessfully attempted to and nominating and corporate gov- Airbus has appoint- bardier Aerospace. pany’s later success because, in spite of manually fly the aircraft. ernance committees. He is a former ed CACI International has named the engine’s troubles, the company’s My suggestions are to first strong- Richard Franklin chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. as managing director Daniel Walsh senior vice president and customer service in dealing with them ly recommend that when one mode 2Excel Aviation has named Stuart IN PICTURES LTD/CORBIS/GETTY IMAGES IN PICTURES LTD/CORBIS/GETTY of Airbus Defence and corporate strategic advisor for its na- effectively paved the way for industry (autopilot) is disconnected, the oth- Stanyard, former Rolls-Royce finance Space in the UK. He tional defense and homeland security acceptance later. er automation mode (auto-throttle) director, to its board. succeeds Colin Payn- business. He was White House deputy also be disconnected. This leaves no VOX Space, a launch services ter, who is retiring. chief of staff for operations, director LOCAL LANGUAGES Robin H. H. Wilson, Seattle doubt that the pilot is controlling both provider for the national security Franklin will continue and deputy director of the White As an ICAO English language profi- modes. My second suggestion is that community, has named U.S. Air Force to lead the secure communications House military office, a military aide ciency rater and head of training, I MANUAL PROFICIENCY recurrent training include some time Maj. Gen. (ret.) Susan Mashiko to its business line, which includes the UK to former Presidents George W. Bush could not agree more with Elizabeth I applaud the recent move toward spent at both high and low altitudes in board. Her career has Defense Ministry’s Skynet 5 secure mili- and Barack Obama and an instructor Mathews’ comments on English including simulator training as part manual flight. spanned a variety of tary satellite communications pilot/aircraft commander for military language testing requirements and of the Boeing 737 MAX return to All pilots should have confidence space and acquisition The National Air Transportation fixed-wing aircraft. especially with regard to required service reported in “Boeing MAX that when necessary they can manu- assignments, includ- Association has promoted Timothy R. ePropelled has named Gary Cardone training for aviation professionals Simulator Training Is Taking Shape” ally control the aircraft in all phases ing as chief of the Obitts to president and CEO from chief vice president and head of the elec- (March 9-22, p. 12). (Feb. 27-March 8, p. 20). As a former of flight. Programs Division in operating officer. He succeedsGary tro-magnetic motor company’s en- However, one of the biggest threats airline captain and line check airman, the Office of Special Dempsey, who has stepped down. gineering and product development to airline pilots operating in a global I observed an increasing tendency by David A Vecchi, Park City, Utah Projects and director SunExpress has team. He was director of technology environment is the persistent use of lo- pilots to defer to automation and a of the Evolved Expendable Launch named and director and vice president of cal language by controllers and pilots reluctance to fly the aircraft manually. PUMP PRESSURE Max Vehicle Program. as CEO, product development. alike. Fly into Madrid or Paris any day, This is a very disturbing trend. The article “Refueling Revisited” Kownatzki General Dynamics has elected John subject to board ap- Aerion Supersonic has hired Matthew and 50% of the crucial air traffic control While aircraft manufacturers contin- (Feb. 27-March. 8, p. 42) states: “The G. Stratton to its board. Stratton was proval. He succeeds Mejia as chief financial officer and communication is conducted in Spanish ue to move toward automation (to one Air Force uses a boom that can pump executive vice president and president , who executive vice president of strategy or in French. day incorporate artificial intelligence) up to 880 gal. per minute while the Jens Bischof of global operations at Verizon and will become CEO of and investor relations. Mejia has held As long as we tolerate this arrogance, to prevent flight outside the aircraft drogue system can pump 220-290 gal. held various leadership positions at Eurowings. Kownatzki leadership positions with the aerospace all our other efforts will bear little fruit. envelope, these “fixes” are years away. at the same rate.” Bell Atlantic Mobile, its predecessor. was a senior vice pres- practices at Booz & Co. and Charles And when, despite the designer’s best Gallons per minute is a rate type Mercury Systems has appointed ident at Lufthansa River Associates, among others. Helmut Kunz, Ratingen, Germany efforts, automation fails, pilots must measurement. I believe it should state Orlando P. Carvalho, former executive Group’s Hub Airlines. AAR has named still be proficient at taking over manu- “at the same pressure.” Jessica A. Garascia vice president of Lockheed Martin Northrop Grum- as general counsel. ‘TOUGH OLD BIRD’ ally and putting the aircraft in a stable aeronautics, to its board. man has elected Da- Garascia was USG As a follow-up to Lee Guthrie’s sis- attitude, troubleshooting the issue and Kerry Moore, Round Rock, Texas The Massachusetts Institute of vid F. Keffer corporate Corp. deputy general ter’s recall of the “beautiful Convair returning the aircraft to a safe landing. Technology has named Greg Olson vice president and counsel, overseeing 880” (March 9-22, p. 6), I should add In the case of both 737 MAX crashes, the Thermo- Calc Professor of the chief financial officer. all mergers and that, from personal experience, the the original “abnormal” had nothing to Practice in the Materials Science Keffer succeedsKenneth Bedingfield, acquisitions, com- 880 was a “tough old bird.” As vice do with the Maneuvering Character- CLARIFICATION and Engineering Department. Olson who has left the company. Keffer was a pliance, corporate president of technical services for istics Augmentation System (MCAS). “Once-Abandoned Light-Attack Acqui- co-founded metal-alloys developer Blue Delta Capital partner and before governance and se- QuesTek Innovations and was a ten- TWA in the 1970s, I was responsible The original malfunction was the angle sition Revived, Again” (Feb. 27-March 8, that chief financial officer at CSRA and curities law. ured professor of materials science for the mechanical performance of its of attack/stall warning system, which p. 50) should have stated that other SRA International. The Aerospace Corp. has appointed and engineering at Northwestern fleet, which then included 24 880s ac- also affected one of the pilots’ airspeed aircraft besides the Iomax are in con- HawkEye 360 has hired Dennis Bur- Victor Ward as general manager of University. c quired by its former owner, Howard and altimeter indications. tention for Mission Set 2. nett as executive vice president and Hughes, who established its specifica- general counsel of the formation-flying tions with Convair. To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files (no satellite, data collection and analytics When those gas-guzzling airplanes Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on company. Burnett was consulting were grounded by the fuel prices fol- 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence principal at LMI Advisors, chief coun- lowing the 1973-74 oil embargo, I inher- Letters may be edited for length and clarity; Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone [email protected] sel of regulatory and government ited responsibility for the parting-out of a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required. U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.

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Mitsubishi Aircraft on March 18 flew the world, has invested in Skyports, a UK TAKE first SpaceJet prototype conforming developer of infrastructure for passen- For the latest, go to to the revised, certifiable design of the ger and cargo urban air mobility. AVIATIONWEEK.COM regional jet. Certification of the initial M90 version has slipped to 2021. Chinese electric vertical-takeoff-and- landing (eVTOL) developer has signed an agreement with the city of Seville to launch its first urban air mobility pilot program in Spain.

COVID-19 IMPACTS Facing coronavirus-related travel restric-

SIKORKSY-BOEING tions, airline capacity cuts are reaching 90%, more than 40 carriers have stopped DEFENSE flying altogether, and the number keeps The U.S. Army has awarded Bell and a LONGVIEW AIRCRAFT SERVICES rising. Multiple bankruptcies are expect- Sikorsky-Boeing team two-year compet- ed before the industry recovers (page 16). itive-demonstration and risk-reduction Canada’s Longview Aviation Services contracts for the Future Long-Range flew the initial CL-215 amphibian up- Arianespace on March 16 suspended Assault Aircraft to replace the UH-60 graded to a CL-415EAF Enhanced Ae- its launch preparation activities at Black Hawk (page 43). rial Firefighter on March 10, the first Europe’s spaceport in Kourou, French of six ordered by Bridger Aerospace of Guiana, as a precaution. The U.S. Air Force has finalized a deal with Montana. Textron Aviation for two AT-6 Wolver- NASA on March 17 ordered all employees ines to join two Sierra Nevada/Embraer French startup VoltAero has begun to work at home, with only mission-crit- A-29 Super Tucanos already ordered by flight testing its Cassio 1 hybrid-elec- ical personnel being allowed on sites Air Force Special Operations Command. tric regional-aircraft testbed equipped throughout the U.S. with two 45-kW motors supplied by Sa- Mitsubishi Electric will supply four air- fran Electrical & Power. Airbus paused production at its defense radars to the Philippines, in Ja- French and Spanish facilities for four pan’s most significant arms sale since it Irelandia Aviation, which is behind five days, starting March 17, to implement lifted a self-imposed ban on exporting different low-cost carriers around the new health and safety measures. military equipment in 2014. VIEW FROM WASHINGTON The U.S. Air Force is scrambling to acquire Gulfstream G550s to complete the EC-37B Compass Call rehost program NASA Keeps Eyes Fixed on Return to Orbit ahead of a possible production shut- The COVID-19 pandemic may have caused NASA to shutter its down, despite no official change in the centers, but the agency is working with SpaceX toward a mid-to-late- company’s outlook for the jet. May launch of astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley on the first manned Crew Dragon flight to the International Space Station (ISS). Behnken and Hurley, both veterans of two space shuttle missions, will comprise the first crew to fly aboard a U.S. orbital spaceship since the shuttle Atlantis completed the 135th and final flight of

the program in July 2011. Hurley was the pilot on that mission. Their return to orbit will be to test SpaceX’s Dragon 2 spacecraft following the company’s successful Demo-1 uncrewed trial

DGAEMT ARMEES run to the ISS in March 2019. A firm launch date for the crewed flight test, Demo-2, has not been set, but NASA on March 18 European missile manufacturer MBDA has completed the first qualification issued a press advisory targeting a mid-to-late May timeframe. firing of its Anglo-French Sea Venom/ Behnken and Hurley, colonels in the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Anti-Navire Leger anti-ship missile Marine Corps, respectively, have been training for a possible ex- from an AS365 Dauphin helicopter. tended stay on the ISS, which is currently understaffed.

COMMERCIAL AVIATION Hurley’s commander on the final shuttle mission, retired NASA Boeing is to modify wiring in undelivered astronaut Chris Ferguson, joined Boeing in 2011 and is in training, 737 MAXs before handing them over to along with NASA astronauts Nicole Aunapu Mann and Michael customers, but is still working with the Fincke, for a crewed flight aboard Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner, FAA and operators on how to manage possibly later this year. grounded aircraft in customers’ fleets.

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FIRST

Mitsubishi Aircraft on March 18 flew the world, has invested in Skyports, a UK On March 18, a French Air Force Airbus Smallsat launch company Rocket Lab TAKE first SpaceJet prototype conforming developer of infrastructure for passen- A330 tanker/transport equipped with has reached a deal to acquire Toronto- For the latest, go to to the revised, certifiable design of the ger and cargo urban air mobility. the Morphee intensive-care module based satellite hardware supplier Sin- AVIATIONWEEK.COM regional jet. Certification of the initial began transferring COVID-19 patients clair Interplanetary. M90 version has slipped to 2021. Chinese electric vertical-takeoff-and- from overloaded hospitals. landing (eVTOL) developer has signed The first Orion spacecraft, scheduled an agreement with the city of Seville to Textron Aviation plans to begin four- for an unmanned mission as part of launch its first urban air mobility pilot week furloughs for most of its 7,000 NASA’s Artemis lunar program, has program in Spain. U.S. employees on March 23 and will passed key space environment tests. adjust Cessna and Beechcraft produc- COVID-19 IMPACTS tion rates to anticipated lower demand. AVIATION WEEK NETWORK Facing coronavirus-related travel restric-

SIKORKSY-BOEING tions, airline capacity cuts are reaching Airbus UK and Rolls-Royce are among 90%, more than 40 carriers have stopped companies that responded to a UK DEFENSE flying altogether, and the number keeps government call for the rapid pro - The U.S. Army has awarded Bell and a LONGVIEW AIRCRAFT SERVICES rising. Multiple bankruptcies are expect- duction of medical ventilators to treat Sikorsky-Boeing team two-year compet- ed before the industry recovers (page 16). people with the coronavirus. itive-demonstration and risk-reduction Canada’s Longview Aviation Services contracts for the Future Long-Range flew the initial CL-215 amphibian up- Arianespace on March 16 suspended SPACE Assault Aircraft to replace the UH-60 graded to a CL-415EAF Enhanced Ae- its launch preparation activities at The European Space Agency and Rus- Bryan Perkins (center), Ann Speed and Black Hawk (page 43). rial Firefighter on March 10, the first Europe’s spaceport in Kourou, French sia’s Roscosmos have postponed their Joanna Speed (far left), Greg Hamilton and of six ordered by Bridger Aerospace of Guiana, as a precaution. joint ExoMars 2020 mission to 2022, as Joe Anselmo (far right). The U.S. Air Force has finalized a deal with Montana. testing could not be completed before NASA Textron Aviation for two AT-6 Wolver- NASA on March 17 ordered all employees this summer’s launch window. AWARDED ines to join two Sierra Nevada/Embraer French startup VoltAero has begun to work at home, with only mission-crit- At the 34th Annual SpeedNews Com- OBITUARY A-29 Super Tucanos already ordered by flight testing its Cassio 1 hybrid-elec- ical personnel being allowed on sites No reason has been given for the mercial Aviation Industry Suppliers Alfred “Al” Worden, command Air Force Special Operations Command. tric regional-aircraft testbed equipped throughout the U.S. March 16 failure of the first flight of the Conference in Los Angeles on March module pilot on the Apollo 15 mis- with two 45-kW motors supplied by Sa- second version of China’s Long March 10, the Aviation Week Network pre - sion to the Moon, died March 18 Mitsubishi Electric will supply four air- fran Electrical & Power. Airbus paused production at its 7 medium-heavy spacecraft from Wen- sented the Sixth Annual Gilbert W. in Texas. He was 88. Worden was defense radars to the Philippines, in Ja- French and Spanish facilities for four chang on Hainan. Speed Award to Bryan Perkins, CEO a U.S. Air Force test pilot before pan’s most significant arms sale since it Irelandia Aviation, which is behind five days, starting March 17, to implement and cofounder of Novaria Group. He being selected by NASA as an as- lifted a self-imposed ban on exporting different low-cost carriers around the new health and safety measures. SpaceX’s 20th and final Dragon 1 cap- received the award from Ann Speed, tronaut in 1966. On Aug. 5, 1971, military equipment in 2014. sule reached the International Space Managing Director for A&D Events on the return trip from the Moon, VIEW FROM WASHINGTON Station early March 9 to deliver a 4,300- Joanna Speed, Aviation Week Network Worden became the first person to to ac- lb. cargo, including crew supplies and President Greg Hamilton and AW&ST The U.S. Air Force is scrambling carry out a deep-space spacewalk, quire Gulfstream G550s to complete the science and technology payloads. Editor-in-Chief Joe Anselmo. describing it as an “unbelievable EC-37B Compass Call rehost program NASA Keeps Eyes Fixed on Return to Orbit ahead of a possible production shut- The COVID-19 pandemic may have caused NASA to shutter its place to be.” He became a senior down, despite no official change in the centers, but the agency is working with SpaceX toward a mid-to-late- aerospace scientist and later chief company’s outlook for the jet. May launch of astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley on the first 80 YEARS AGO of the Systems Study Division at IN AVIATION WEEK the NASA Ames Research Center. manned Crew Dragon flight to the International Space Station (ISS). After retiring from NASA and the The new B-24 bomber graced the cover Behnken and Hurley, both veterans of two space shuttle missions, Air Force in 1975, Worden became of our April 1, 1940, edition as part of an an aerospace industry executive. will comprise the first crew to fly aboard a U.S. orbital spaceship advertisement for Pratt & Whitney, which since the shuttle Atlantis completed the 135th and final flight of supplied the aircraft’s four Twin Wasp en-

the program in July 2011. Hurley was the pilot on that mission. gines. Developed by Consolidated Aircraft Their return to orbit will be to test SpaceX’s Dragon 2 space- of San Diego, the B-24 was conceived as PROMOTED craft following the company’s successful Demo-1 uncrewed trial a faster, longer-range cousin to the B-17, Lockheed Martin has tapped an aero- designed to fly up to 290 mph and carry space veteran to lead the Pentagon’s DGAEMT ARMEES run to the ISS in March 2019. A firm launch date for the crewed flight test, Demo-2, has not been set, but NASA on March 18 a 5,000-lb. (2,268-kg.) bomb for 1,700 largest contractor starting June 15. MBDA Board member Jim Taiclet was named European missile manufacturer issued a press advisory targeting a mid-to-late May timeframe. mi. Dubbed the “Liberator,” the B-24 was has completed the first qualification mass-produced during World War II and de- to also be CEO and president. Current firing of its Anglo-French Sea Venom/ Behnken and Hurley, colonels in the U.S. Air Force and U.S. ployed by the U.S. and UK to every theater, chief executive Marillyn Hewson will Anti-Navire Leger anti-ship missile Marine Corps, respectively, have been training for a possible ex- bombing Axis targets, protecting maritime become executive chairman (page 34). from an AS365 Dauphin helicopter. tended stay on the ISS, which is currently understaffed. convoys, scouting and destroying U-boats Alain Bellemare is stepping down as Hurley’s commander on the final shuttle mission, retired NASA and softening German defenses during the COMMERCIAL AVIATION president and CEO of Bombardier, Boeing is to modify wiring in undelivered astronaut Chris Ferguson, joined Boeing in 2011 and is in training, D-Day invasion of France. A total of 18,482 having overseen a radical restructur- 737 MAXs before handing them over to along with NASA astronauts Nicole Aunapu Mann and Michael B-24s were built before production ended Read every issue of Aviation Week ing of the Canadian company. He will customers, but is still working with the Fincke, for a crewed flight aboard Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner, in 1945, making it the most produced back to 1916 at: be succeeded by Eric Martel, current bomber of all time. FAA and operators on how to manage possibly later this year. archive.aviationweek.com president and CEO of Hydro-Quebec grounded aircraft in customers’ fleets. and a former Bombardier executive. c

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 9 COMMENTARY UP FRONT KEVIN MICHAELS

THE RECENT PASSING OF FORMER OEMs, while the lower tiers of the supply chain were GE CEO Jack Welch may represent more bled of working capital. Today, many subtier suppliers than the loss of the icon named Manager are fragile, and their ability to invest in the future—let of the Century by Fortune magazine in alone ride out a crisis like the 737 MAX production 1999. It may also symbolize the passing of an era in cap- shutdown—is diminished compared to a decade ago. italism—“shareholders first”—that Welch did so much What about customers? On the one hand, brutal to promulgate. What does this have to do with today’s competition between Airbus and Boeing held jetliner aerospace industry? Plenty, as it turns out. prices relatively flat over the past 15 years. On the other Before the “shareholders first” mantra took hold in hand, customer satisfaction in the aftermarket and cus- the 1990s, publicly traded companies considered four tomer support is suffering. In last year’s AeroDynamic stakeholders in allocating capital: customers, local com- Advisory/Aviation Week Network customer satisfac- munities, employees and suppliers, and shareholders. tion survey, just one out of 41 OEMs received a positive net promoter score from airlines. The manifestation of the “share- Rethinking ‘Shareholders First’ holders first” philosophy is very negative for a long-cycle industry Our long-cycle, innovation-driven industry is out of balance like aerospace, which faces enor- mous challenges—including sus- Before Welch took over in 1981, GE Average Annual Boeing tainable development—that will publicly stated it valued workers and Expenditures, 2017-18 require large sums of R&D. Boeing, research labs before shareholders. Af- .. $ for example, spent an average of ter 20 years of relentless focus on pro- $12.8 billion in share buybacks and ductivity, cost-cutting and shedding $14 dividends in 2018 and 2019, while more than 100,000 jobs, GE’s market averaging just $2.2 billion in R&D. 12 capitalization skyrocketed from $12 bil- This is not just a Boeing problem; lion to an astounding $410 billion. Much 10 it is a corporate America prob- of this profit growth was driven by fi- 5. lem. In 2018, share buybacks and nancial services rather than traditional dividends for the S&P 500 were an manufacturing. astounding 109% of net income, ac- Encouraged by the late economist cording to The Wall Street Journal. Milton Friedman and success stories 4 This disparity points to another such as GE, aerospace executives be- 2 issue: Companies are taking on gan to adopt “shareholders first” in the debt to fund shareholder gener- 1990s. McDonnell Douglas famously 0 osity. This is not sustainable in embraced this philosophy and focused Share R&D the long run and leaves no capital on quarterly earnings while refusing Buybacks and to invest in customers, suppliers, Dividends to invest in new civil aircraft. Its CEO, employees or local communities. Source: Boeing Harry Stonecipher, eventually took the Source: Boeing Contrast this behavior with leadership helm at Boeing. Responding to the percep- OEM customer Delta Air Lines, which earned $6.5 bil- tion that he was only interested in making money, he lion in 2019. It shared $1.6 billion (16.7%) of that with responded, “You’re right, I am.” employees—a record amount for a U.S. company. This Employees were the first casualty, with unions translates into improved employee morale and in turn weakened and raises curtailed. For example, until re- improved customer satisfaction, higher yields and cently, Honeywell International imposed mandatory growing market share. unpaid leave on its employees—while it was making Don’t get me wrong. I am a pro-business, free-trade 20% margins. As employees lost pace, so did local capitalist who depends on increasing stock prices to communities. In the early 2000s, the number of em- fund his retirement. Making money and rewarding ployees in low-wage countries became a key perfor- shareholders is a good thing. However, our long-cycle, mance indicator. New aerospace clusters in places innovation-driven industry is clearly out of balance. such as China, Eastern Europe and Mexico followed “Shareholders first” needs to be replaced by a more suit. The blind push to leverage labor-arbitrage has balanced version of capitalism if the aerospace in- ebbed in recent years, but the compact of secure em- dustry is to thrive in the long run. The change must ployment was violated, and employee morale suffered. originate not only from aerospace leaders, including A decade later, suppliers became the target of OEM the new CEOs of Airbus and Boeing, but also from the supply chain cost-reduction initiatives with double-digit boards that evaluate them and set priorities. c price reduction demands, longer payment terms, aftermarket royalty payments and other concessions. Contributing columnist Kevin Michaels is managing director of Market capitalization shifted from suppliers to the AeroDynamic Advisory in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY UP FRONT KEVIN MICHAELS

THE RECENT PASSING OF FORMER OEMs, while the lower tiers of the supply chain were GE CEO Jack Welch may represent more bled of working capital. Today, many subtier suppliers than the loss of the icon named Manager are fragile, and their ability to invest in the future—let of the Century by Fortune magazine in alone ride out a crisis like the 737 MAX production 1999. It may also symbolize the passing of an era in cap- shutdown—is diminished compared to a decade ago. italism—“shareholders first”—that Welch did so much What about customers? On the one hand, brutal to promulgate. What does this have to do with today’s competition between Airbus and Boeing held jetliner aerospace industry? Plenty, as it turns out. prices relatively flat over the past 15 years. On the other Before the “shareholders first” mantra took hold in hand, customer satisfaction in the aftermarket and cus- the 1990s, publicly traded companies considered four tomer support is suffering. In last year’s AeroDynamic TO CHANGE. stakeholders in allocating capital: customers, local com- Advisory/Aviation Week Network customer satisfac- munities, employees and suppliers, and shareholders. tion survey, just one out of 41 OEMs received a positive net promoter score from airlines. The manifestation of the “share- Rethinking ‘Shareholders First’ holders first” philosophy is very negative for a long-cycle industry Our long-cycle, innovation-driven industry is out of balance like aerospace, which faces enor- mous challenges—including sus- Before Welch took over in 1981, GE Average Annual Boeing tainable development—that will publicly stated it valued workers and Expenditures, 2017-18 require large sums of R&D. Boeing, research labs before shareholders. Af- .. $ for example, spent an average of ter 20 years of relentless focus on pro- $12.8 billion in share buybacks and ductivity, cost-cutting and shedding $14 dividends in 2018 and 2019, while more than 100,000 jobs, GE’s market averaging just $2.2 billion in R&D. 12 capitalization skyrocketed from $12 bil- This is not just a Boeing problem; lion to an astounding $410 billion. Much 10 it is a corporate America prob- of this profit growth was driven by fi- 5. lem. In 2018, share buybacks and nancial services rather than traditional dividends for the S&P 500 were an manufacturing. astounding 109% of net income, ac- Encouraged by the late economist cording to The Wall Street Journal. Milton Friedman and success stories 4 This disparity points to another such as GE, aerospace executives be- 2 issue: Companies are taking on gan to adopt “shareholders first” in the debt to fund shareholder gener- It’s no wonder the C295 is the undisputed 1990s. McDonnell Douglas famously 0 osity. This is not sustainable in leader of its field. With unparalleled embraced this philosophy and focused Share R&D the long run and leaves no capital on quarterly earnings while refusing Buybacks and to invest in customers, suppliers, versatility, it’s at home performing a Dividends to invest in new civil aircraft. Its CEO, employees or local communities. Source: Boeing variety of missions. Air to air refuelling, Harry Stonecipher, eventually took the Source: Boeing Contrast this behavior with leadership helm at Boeing. Responding to the percep- OEM customer Delta Air Lines, which earned $6.5 bil- search and rescue, troop transport and a tion that he was only interested in making money, he lion in 2019. It shared $1.6 billion (16.7%) of that with wide range of surveillance duties. And to responded, “You’re right, I am.” employees—a record amount for a U.S. company. This top it all, its simple, robust design, means Employees were the first casualty, with unions translates into improved employee morale and in turn weakened and raises curtailed. For example, until re- improved customer satisfaction, higher yields and it has the lowest fuel and maintenance cently, Honeywell International imposed mandatory growing market share. costs in the category. Visit us online unpaid leave on its employees—while it was making Don’t get me wrong. I am a pro-business, free-trade to find more reasons why the C295 is 20% margins. As employees lost pace, so did local capitalist who depends on increasing stock prices to communities. In the early 2000s, the number of em- fund his retirement. Making money and rewarding the best-selling medium range tactical ployees in low-wage countries became a key perfor- shareholders is a good thing. However, our long-cycle, airlifter in the world. mance indicator. New aerospace clusters in places innovation-driven industry is clearly out of balance. such as China, Eastern Europe and Mexico followed “Shareholders first” needs to be replaced by a more Versatility. We make it fly. suit. The blind push to leverage labor-arbitrage has balanced version of capitalism if the aerospace in- ebbed in recent years, but the compact of secure em- dustry is to thrive in the long run. The change must ployment was violated, and employee morale suffered. originate not only from aerospace leaders, including A decade later, suppliers became the target of OEM the new CEOs of Airbus and Boeing, but also from the supply chain cost-reduction initiatives with double-digit boards that evaluate them and set priorities. c price reduction demands, longer payment terms, aftermarket royalty payments and other concessions. Contributing columnist Kevin Michaels is managing director of Market capitalization shifted from suppliers to the AeroDynamic Advisory in Ann Arbor, Michigan. airbus.com

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY GOING CONCERNS MICHAEL BRUNO

THE COVID-19 OUTBREAK IS THE fleets there, and partner for local production of nonpro- biggest punch to the gut commercial avi- prietary parts and systems for emerging Chinese fleets. ation has taken since the Sept. 11, 2001, But China is ramping up efforts to get its own fleet into terrorist attacks. And coming on the operation and is pairing with Russian suppliers more of- heels of the Boeing 737 MAX crisis, Airbus and Boeing ten. Any growth in overall aerospace trade likely would widebody production rate cuts, U.S. trade wars and the have to come from a jump in Chinese orders of Airbus flight-shaming movement in Europe, the coronavirus or Boeing airliners, which was not widely expected in emergency is challenging the aerospace manufacturing the wake of the Jan. 16 trade truce and is not anticipat- sector and its global supply chain. ed now after the recent plummet in Chinese air traffic. Is the historic upcycle of commercial aircraft or- Although collapsing demand worldwide for air travel ders over? Will orders be canceled and deferred? Will could have a devastating effect on A&D manufactur- business aviation go out of ing and supply, executives favor? Only time will tell, do not consider it likely. but it has been interesting Sharp Shock COVID-19 quickly turned to hear what aerospace How the coronavirus crisis is likely to into a short, sharp shock and defense (A&D) exec- to the system, but industry utives are worrying about. alter the aerospace supply chain leaders see the same un- First, lost revenue from derlying macro conditions disrupted operations in driving long-term growth. China is not among their Chief among them: ex- worries. Practically no one panding middle classes in A&D manufacturing has worldwide that spend revised their 2020 finan- more discretionary funds cial forecasts—provided in traveling by air for leisure. January or February—be- During the 2020 Avia- cause of COVID-19 alone. tion Summit in Washing- “To date, we have no ton, new Collins Aerospace reported cases of our em- President Stephen Timm ployees having contracted was asked if the airliner- the virus, and the direct customer landscape could impact to our trading ac- look a lot different in com- tivities has been minimal,” ing years due to the scare. Senior Plc CEO David SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS “Frankly, we’re going to Squires said March 2. see differences,” Timm said. “This will be a blip—a se- Likewise, GE CEO Larry Culp did not change the rious blip that we have to deal with today—but com- company’s financial outlook because COVID-19 was pared with the macro aerospace industry, we’re in a already cited in a forecast given last month. “In our really good place.” view, in all likelihood it is going to be temporary, but it Where do industry insiders see change coming to doesn’t mean it is going to disappear tomorrow,” Culp the supply chain? For one thing, COVID-19 could help said at a March 4 shareholder briefing. deepen resistance to business travel, said some at- To be sure, some OEMs and suppliers with Chinese tending Aviation Week’s Annual Aerospace Raw Mate- operations had to shut down in recent weeks due to rials and Manufacturers Supply Chain Conference on COVID-19. But those factories are back up, and the March 9-12. That would exacerbate the ongoing drop in impact to revenue was limited. For instance, only 20 of demand for widebodies. Triumph Group’s roughly 5,000 active suppliers are lo- Still, the biggest change could come in accelerating cated in China or South Korea. All 20 remain operation- a budding shift in A&D supply from globalization to al, and no supply chain interruptions have occurred. regionalization. Executives and consultants at both the On the supply side, the glancing blow could have a lot Wharton Aerospace Conference on Feb. 29 and Aviation to do with the fact that not much in Western aerospace Week’s supply chain event discussed how COVID-19 ce- is sourced in China. According to U.S. Commerce De- ments a belief that just-in-time global supply chains are partment data, the U.S. imports just $1.1 billion annu- too risky and not worth the lower cost anymore. ally in aircraft, spacecraft and related parts. What is Instead, they look to capitalize on aerospace manu- more, that figure has been dropping since 2016—be- facturing hubs in Asia, Europe-North Africa and North fore the U.S.-China trade war—and was expected to America to supply themselves. The trend could start fall off a cliff for 2019 and 2020 regardless of the “Phase with aerostructures for future single-aisle airliners, es- One” trade deal truce. pecially as composite materials are increasingly incor- China always was a twofold market for U.S. aerospace: porated. “From a colocation strategy,” says one supplier Sell parts and services to existing Western-supplied executive, “you will see it in the next-gen airplanes.” c

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY DISCOVER GOING CONCERNS ANALYZE PLAN MICHAEL BRUNO FORECAST

THE COVID-19 OUTBREAK IS THE fleets there, and partner for local production of nonpro- biggest punch to the gut commercial avi- prietary parts and systems for emerging Chinese fleets. ation has taken since the Sept. 11, 2001, But China is ramping up efforts to get its own fleet into terrorist attacks. And coming on the operation and is pairing with Russian suppliers more of- heels of the Boeing 737 MAX crisis, Airbus and Boeing ten. Any growth in overall aerospace trade likely would widebody production rate cuts, U.S. trade wars and the have to come from a jump in Chinese orders of Airbus flight-shaming movement in Europe, the coronavirus or Boeing airliners, which was not widely expected in emergency is challenging the aerospace manufacturing the wake of the Jan. 16 trade truce and is not anticipat- sector and its global supply chain. ed now after the recent plummet in Chinese air traffic. Is the historic upcycle of commercial aircraft or- Although collapsing demand worldwide for air travel ders over? Will orders be canceled and deferred? Will could have a devastating effect on A&D manufactur- business aviation go out of ing and supply, executives favor? Only time will tell, do not consider it likely. but it has been interesting Sharp Shock COVID-19 quickly turned to hear what aerospace How the coronavirus crisis is likely to into a short, sharp shock and defense (A&D) exec- to the system, but industry utives are worrying about. alter the aerospace supply chain leaders see the same un- First, lost revenue from derlying macro conditions disrupted operations in driving long-term growth. China is not among their Chief among them: ex- Predictive Intelligence worries. Practically no one panding middle classes in A&D manufacturing has worldwide that spend revised their 2020 finan- more discretionary funds cial forecasts—provided in traveling by air for leisure. to Drive Results January or February—be- During the 2020 Avia- cause of COVID-19 alone. tion Summit in Washing- “To date, we have no ton, new Collins Aerospace reported cases of our em- President Stephen Timm ployees having contracted was asked if the airliner- the virus, and the direct customer landscape could impact to our trading ac- look a lot different in com- With Aviation Week Network’s 2020 Fleet & MRO Forecast, tivities has been minimal,” ing years due to the scare. Senior Plc CEO David SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS “Frankly, we’re going to gain a 10-year outlook to minimize risk and maximize revenue. Squires said March 2. see differences,” Timm said. “This will be a blip—a se- Likewise, GE CEO Larry Culp did not change the rious blip that we have to deal with today—but com- • Fleets, trends, and projections company’s financial outlook because COVID-19 was pared with the macro aerospace industry, we’re in a already cited in a forecast given last month. “In our really good place.” • Predictive view of market share view, in all likelihood it is going to be temporary, but it Where do industry insiders see change coming to doesn’t mean it is going to disappear tomorrow,” Culp the supply chain? For one thing, COVID-19 could help • MRO future demand said at a March 4 shareholder briefing. deepen resistance to business travel, said some at- To be sure, some OEMs and suppliers with Chinese tending Aviation Week’s Annual Aerospace Raw Mate- operations had to shut down in recent weeks due to rials and Manufacturers Supply Chain Conference on Take your business to the next level. COVID-19. But those factories are back up, and the March 9-12. That would exacerbate the ongoing drop in impact to revenue was limited. For instance, only 20 of demand for widebodies. Triumph Group’s roughly 5,000 active suppliers are lo- Still, the biggest change could come in accelerating cated in China or South Korea. All 20 remain operation- a budding shift in A&D supply from globalization to For more information, visit al, and no supply chain interruptions have occurred. regionalization. Executives and consultants at both the On the supply side, the glancing blow could have a lot Wharton Aerospace Conference on Feb. 29 and Aviation aviationweek.com/forecasts to do with the fact that not much in Western aerospace Week’s supply chain event discussed how COVID-19 ce- or call 866.857.0148 is sourced in China. According to U.S. Commerce De- ments a belief that just-in-time global supply chains are partment data, the U.S. imports just $1.1 billion annu- too risky and not worth the lower cost anymore. or +1.847.763.9147 ally in aircraft, spacecraft and related parts. What is Instead, they look to capitalize on aerospace manu- more, that figure has been dropping since 2016—be- facturing hubs in Asia, Europe-North Africa and North Available for: fore the U.S.-China trade war—and was expected to America to supply themselves. The trend could start COMMERCIAL fall off a cliff for 2019 and 2020 regardless of the “Phase with aerostructures for future single-aisle airliners, es- One” trade deal truce. pecially as composite materials are increasingly incor- MILITARY China always was a twofold market for U.S. aerospace: porated. “From a colocation strategy,” says one supplier BUSINESS Sell parts and services to existing Western-supplied executive, “you will see it in the next-gen airplanes.” c HELICOPTER

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY LEADING EDGE GRAHAM WARWICK

COMMERCIAL SPACE’S FAST PACE additionally challenging,” says Todd Master, DARPA and the risks it is taking on are illustrated program manager. by DARPA’s Launch Challenge, which end- The departure of VOX removed the need for hori- ed on March 2 without the $12 million in zontal launch sites, so DARPA reduced the choice of prize money being claimed. locations to two: Kodiak, Alaska, and Wallops Island, Initiated in April 2018, the challenge was intended to Virginia. “As we got closer to launch, we realized we demonstrate a flexible and responsive “anywhere, any- would be holding open a bunch of ranges and launch time” capability to launch small satellites to low Earth dates,” Master says. orbit (LEO) on demand. It was purpose-designed to Astra was given 72 days’ notice that the first flight harness commercial industry’s efforts to dramatically would be from the Pacific Spaceport Complex at reduce the cost and time to launch. Kodiak, but—instead of forcing it to pack up after Competitors would be given weeks, not years, notice launch and move across the country—DARPA decid- of the launch site, payload and orbit, and just days to ed the second flight would be from another pad 1,000 set up and launch. A successful flight to LEO would ft. away at Kodiak. win $2 million and a chance to secure the $10 million “We didn’t want to make this a logistics challenge grand prize by launch- or a regulatory chal- ing a second time, just lenge,” Master says. weeks later, from a “Whether we moved different site, to a dif- 5,000 mi. or 1,000 ft., ferent orbit with a dif- Hard Space the technical challeng- ferent payload. DARPA learns the risks of es associated with it Dozens of compa- and the benefit of nies registered, 18 working with commercial what we are trying to prequalified and, in space startups demonstrate remained April 2019, the DARPA the same.” named three finalists: Conducting both Vector Launch, Virgin launches from Kodiak Orbit subsidiary VOX simplified the regula- Space and an uniden- tory process, making tified startup in stealth it easier to meet re- mode. They covered quirements for flight both vertical and hor- safety analysis and izontal launch options, ASTRA closing airspace. “But and DARPA identified four possible launch sites across the team was still not sure until 30 days out what the the U.S. final trajectory would be,” he says. But the commercial industry was evolving quickly. The launch window established by DARPA opened Vector withdrew from the challenge last September, on Feb. 17. Astra was able to transport its container- citing financial issues. In December, with its small-sat- ized launch vehicle to Kodiak, set up on a bare pad, ellite launcher still unflown, the startup filed for bank- integrate a DARPA-supplied payload, complete pre- ruptcy protection. flight procedures and attempt a launch. Formed to pursue the U.S. national-security market, But on March 2, 53 sec. from liftoff, Astra scrubbed VOX withdrew in October 2019 to allow parent Virgin the launch because of a sensor anomaly, and the win- Orbit to focus on the first commercial flights of its dow closed, ending the challenge without a single flight. LauncherOne. The first test of the air-launched boost- “We set aggressive but achievable goals. Astra got close er is imminent. but did not achieve them,” Master says. The surviving challenge competitor was revealed in While disappointed, Master praises Astra for taking February as Alameda, California-based Astra, founded on the challenge, which it says did achieve several of the by former NASA Chief Technology Officer Chris Kemp goals set, including speeding up the regulatory process- and Adam London, whose company, Ventions, formed es required to approve a launch. Undeterred, DARPA the basis of the startup. is looking again at how to demonstrate that flexible and By the time Astra was revealed as the sole partic- responsive space launch can be valuable in battle. ipant, the character of the challenge had changed. In Astra’s first rocket is called “1 of 3” because it expects 2018, DARPA not only had anticipated multiple com- it will take three launches to reach orbit. Its participa- petitors but also had expected them to complete sever- tion in the challenge was always high-risk. “We were 53 al test launches before the challenge flights. sec. from launch, and there was nothing at that site just But delays at Astra meant the first launch under days before,” says London. “We knew it was a long shot, the challenge would be the first flight for its rocket. but we understand how strategic responsive launch is “Astra’s first launch moved to this year, which made it to the government.” c

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY COMMENTARY LEADING EDGE THE LAUNCHPAD GRAHAM WARWICK IRENE KLOTZ

COMMERCIAL SPACE’S FAST PACE additionally challenging,” says Todd Master, DARPA ELON MUSK WAS DREAMING BIG in 2020, he’d be like: ‘That’s crazy.’ Yet, we are. We don’t and the risks it is taking on are illustrated program manager. when he founded SpaceX in 2002 at the want to be in that situation.” by DARPA’s Launch Challenge, which end- The departure of VOX removed the need for hori- tender age of 30. He’s the first to admit While the fruits of SpaceX’s labor on the Crew Dragon ed on March 2 without the $12 million in zontal launch sites, so DARPA reduced the choice of all the mistakes he has made in what may prove to be a program are at hand, Musk has turned his attention to prize money being claimed. locations to two: Kodiak, Alaska, and Wallops Island, quixotic quest to help humanity evolve into a multiplanet the design and test of the Starship deep-space trans- Initiated in April 2018, the challenge was intended to Virginia. “As we got closer to launch, we realized we species. But what irks him the most is that 18 years lat- port, a two-stage, fully reusable system for passengers demonstrate a flexible and responsive “anywhere, any- would be holding open a bunch of ranges and launch er—and with age 50 clearly in sight—Musk is still waiting and cargo. “Moving ahead in the human exploration of time” capability to launch small satellites to low Earth dates,” Master says. to ﬂ y people in space. space depends completely on a fully and rapidly reusable orbit (LEO) on demand. It was purpose-designed to Astra was given 72 days’ notice that the first flight “It’s great that we’re about to launch people to orbit; rocket,” says Musk. “Without that, we’re going nowhere.” harness commercial industry’s efforts to dramatically would be from the Pacific Spaceport Complex at it’s been a long time—18 years. You could have [had] If building the behemoth Starship was not challeng- reduce the cost and time to launch. Kodiak, but—instead of forcing it to pack up after a kid and have sent him o to college by now,” Musk ing enough, Musk simultaneously wants to ensure the Competitors would be given weeks, not years, notice launch and move across the country—DARPA decid- quipped during the Satellite 2020 keynote address in system can be manufactured rapidly—one Starship ev- of the launch site, payload and orbit, and just days to ed the second flight would be from another pad 1,000 Washington on March 9. ery three days. SpaceX has reached a high production set up and launch. A successful flight to LEO would ft. away at Kodiak. win $2 million and a chance to secure the $10 million “We didn’t want to make this a logistics challenge Musk bemoans the slowness grand prize by launch- or a regulatory chal- Stepping Up the Pace of human space ight innovation

ing a second time, just lenge,” Master says. ASA weeks later, from a “Whether we moved different site, to a dif- 5,000 mi. or 1,000 ft., ferent orbit with a dif- Hard Space the technical challeng- ferent payload. DARPA learns the risks of es associated with it Dozens of compa- and the benefit of nies registered, 18 working with commercial what we are trying to prequalified and, in space startups demonstrate remained April 2019, the DARPA the same.” named three finalists: Conducting both Vector Launch, Virgin launches from Kodiak Orbit subsidiary VOX simplified the regula- Space and an uniden- tory process, making tified startup in stealth it easier to meet re- mode. They covered quirements for flight both vertical and hor- safety analysis and izontal launch options, ASTRA closing airspace. “But and DARPA identified four possible launch sites across the team was still not sure until 30 days out what the SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, left, with NASA’s Bob Behnken, one of two astronauts slated for a ight test on Dragon 2 this spring. the U.S. final trajectory would be,” he says. But the commercial industry was evolving quickly. The launch window established by DARPA opened SpaceX and Boeing were selected in 2014 by NASA rate with its Starlink internet satellites, pumping out 6-7 Vector withdrew from the challenge last September, on Feb. 17. Astra was able to transport its container- to develop and fl y commercially owned and operated spacecraft per day, but nothing close to that rate with its citing financial issues. In December, with its small-sat- ized launch vehicle to Kodiak, set up on a bare pad, space taxis to the International Space Station (ISS), Falcon rocket fl eet. ellite launcher still unflown, the startup filed for bank- integrate a DARPA-supplied payload, complete pre- with fi rst launch expected in 2017. At one time, SpaceX planned to produce 40 or so ruptcy protection. flight procedures and attempt a launch. Following a successful docking of an uncrewed Drag- Falcon core stages per year, says company President Formed to pursue the U.S. national-security market, But on March 2, 53 sec. from liftoff, Astra scrubbed on 2 capsule at the ISS in March 2019 and a demonstra- and Chief Operating Oª cer Gwynne Shotwell. But that VOX withdrew in October 2019 to allow parent Virgin the launch because of a sensor anomaly, and the win- tion of Dragon’s infl ight launch abort system in January rate of production became unnecessary once SpaceX fi - Orbit to focus on the first commercial flights of its dow closed, ending the challenge without a single flight. 2020, SpaceX is preparing for a crewed fl ight to the ISS nalized a booster design that is expected to fl y 10 times LauncherOne. The first test of the air-launched boost- “We set aggressive but achievable goals. Astra got close as early as May. The mission will be the fi rst to launch with minimal refurbishment between launches. The er is imminent. but did not achieve them,” Master says. astronauts into orbit from the United States since the company’s fl eet leader launched for an unprecedented The surviving challenge competitor was revealed in While disappointed, Master praises Astra for taking end of the space shuttle program in 2011. fi fth time on May 18. February as Alameda, California-based Astra, founded on the challenge, which it says did achieve several of the “The thing that concerns me most right now is that Boosting Falcon fi rst-stage manufacturing to 40 per by former NASA Chief Technology Officer Chris Kemp goals set, including speeding up the regulatory process- unless we improve our rate of innovation dramatically, year, however, would have helped the company learn and Adam London, whose company, Ventions, formed es required to approve a launch. Undeterred, DARPA then there is no chance of a base on the Moon or a city more about improving production techniques, Shotwell the basis of the startup. is looking again at how to demonstrate that flexible and on Mars,” Musk says. adds. “Manufacturing is hard to do, and I think the U.S. By the time Astra was revealed as the sole partic- responsive space launch can be valuable in battle. “We need to be very careful about getting stuck in has kind of lost the magic. We have a lot to learn from ipant, the character of the challenge had changed. In Astra’s first rocket is called “1 of 3” because it expects a ‘low-Earth maximum,’” he says like what happened others.” 2018, DARPA not only had anticipated multiple com- it will take three launches to reach orbit. Its participa- during the 1981-2011 space shuttle program or with Rus- Musk wants a fl eet of 1,000 Starships, but he is start- petitors but also had expected them to complete sever- tion in the challenge was always high-risk. “We were 53 sia’s Soyuz spacecraft, currently the only transportation ing to feel the heavy hand of time. “If we don’t improve al test launches before the challenge flights. sec. from launch, and there was nothing at that site just system for station crew ferry fl ights. our pace of progress, I’m defi nitely going to be dead be- But delays at Astra meant the first launch under days before,” says London. “We knew it was a long shot, “Why does Soyuz still fl y? It was designed in the fore we go to Mars,” he says. the challenge would be the first flight for its rocket. but we understand how strategic responsive launch is 1950s,” says Musk. “If you told [Soviet designer] Sergei Which may explain Musk’s latest mantra: “If the “Astra’s first launch moved to this year, which made it to the government.” c Korolev and the other guys that we’d still be fl ying Soyuz schedule is long, the design is wrong.” c

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 1 COMMERCIAL AVIATION > COVID-19 and cabins p. 24 ET302 report p. 26 UK-EASA break p. 28 Flybe failure fallout p. 30 European LCCs p. 31 GROUND STOP

dustry look like when that happens? AIR TRANSPORT HAS NEARLY HALTED IN MANY Who will be left, and who will be gone? > Will demand for air travel return to PARTS OF THE WORLD previous levels, given the unprecedented shock the global economy AIRLINES PLAN FOR EXTENDED GROUNDING is now experiencing? And will con- > tainment of the coronavirus be more successful than anticipated, ushering > I ATA: INDUSTRY NEEDS $200 BILLION in a quicker-than-expected return to relative normalcy? FROM GOVERNMENTS What is clear is that the industry that emerges from the crisis will need to reset its business model. Over the Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Sean Broderick and Ben Goldstein past fi ve years, U.S. airlines spent 96% Washington, Helen Massy-Beresford Paris, Adrian Schofield of their free cash fl ow on stock buybacks—which boost the share price— Auckland and Bradley Perrett Beijing and dividends, leaving little cushion for bad times. ust over two years ago, American Airlines Chairman And those bad times could be worse than anyone imagined. As re- and CEO Doug Parker surveyed the U.S. airline land- cently as December, the International scape and saw an unstoppable industry. “I don’t think Air Transport Association (IATA) ex- we’re ever going to lose money again,” he proclaimed. pected the industry to turn a $29 bil- J lion net profi t in 2020. Three months “We have an industry that’s going to be profi table in good and later, IATA is forecasting a year-end- bad times.” loss of $40 billion, similar to what was seen in the 2008-09 global fi nancial The bad times have arrived, as any Numerous bankruptcies are expect- meltdown. IATA Director General airline executive in the world can ated before the airline industry moves Alexandre de Juniac says the indus- test. As COVID-19 spreads and an ev- into some kind of recovery mode. try will require $150-200 billion in er-increasing number of countries go When that will happen is anyone’s government assistance to overcome into lockdown, global air transport is guess, but the longer the devastating liquidity shortfalls. grinding to a halt. Travel restrictions groundings continue, the less will be De Juniac believes one outcome of abound, capacity cuts are reaching left of what had been a prospering the crisis will be industry consolida- 90% of normal levels, and more than industry globally. tion, as carriers are forced out of busi- 40 airlines have stopped fl ying alto- The questions now: When will prof- ness or form larger airlines to survive. gether, a number that is rising daily. itability return, and what will the in- And aircraft manufacturers and sup-

A depressing sight at airports worldwide—empty gates waiting for aircraft.

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > COVID-19 and cabins p. 24 ET302 report p. 26 UK-EASA break p. 28 Flybe failure fallout p. 30 European LCCs p. 31 Airline Liquidity* pliers will feel the pinch in the coming months as the effects

of deferred or canceled orders Months ripple through the industry (see 10 page 21). GROUND STOP 9 IATA Chief Economist Brian Pearce projects that the average 8 dustry look like when that happens? airline has a little more than two 7 AIR TRANSPORT HAS NEARLY HALTED IN MANY Who will be left, and who will be gone? months’ worth of cash to cover 6 > Will demand for air travel return to fi xed costs. “There is a growing 5 PARTS OF THE WORLD previous levels, given the unprec- liquidity crisis in air transport,” 4 edented shock the global economy he says. Countries a ected by 3 > AIRLINES PLAN FOR EXTENDED GROUNDING is now experiencing? And will con- COVID-19 now represent 94% of 2 tainment of the coronavirus be more the global air transport market, 1 successful than anticipated, ushering and new travel restrictions and 0 > I ATA: INDUSTRY NEEDS $200 BILLION in a quicker-than-expected return to border closures are being add- Africa Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East North America relative normalcy? ed daily. “Demand has fallen to FROM GOVERNMENTS What is clear is that the industry zero,” Pearce says. *Cash and equivalents coverage of revenues. Latest available 12 month cumulative revenues for Africa, Latin America and the Middle East might not be representative due to small sample size. that emerges from the crisis will need And not all airlines are equal. to reset its business model. Over the Most airline profi ts during the Source: Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Sean Broderick and Ben Goldstein past fi ve years, U.S. airlines spent 96% past decade were generated by Washington, Helen Massy-Beresford Paris, Adrian Schofield of their free cash fl ow on stock buy- about 30 carriers at, or near, invest- dismisses speculation that demand domestic consolidation and this crisis backs—which boost the share price— ment-grade ratings. Many othersSource lost: IATA for business travel will slump in the may prove similar . . . though current Auckland and Bradley Perrett Beijing and dividends, leaving little cushion money even in good economic times. post-COVID-19 environment. “It was fundamentals are gyrating with such for bad times. A slump in fuel prices will provide asked after 9/11, SARS, the full-size momentum that achieving merger ust over two years ago, American Airlines Chairman And those bad times could be some cushion and could save the in- toiletry ban and the [2008-09 global traction may prove difficult,” the worse than anyone imagined. As re- dustry up to $30 billion annually. But fi nancial crisis],” its analysts wrote analysts wrote. “From a regulatory and CEO Doug Parker surveyed the U.S. airline land- cently as December, the International airline revenue losses are far greater, in a March 16 note to investors. “Our perspective, it’s hard to imagine the scape and saw an unstoppable industry. “I don’t think Air Transport Association (IATA) ex- and hedging—particularly popular in advice is to ignore the topic.” government blocking even the largest we’re ever going to lose money again,” he proclaimed. pected the industry to turn a $29 bil- Europe—is delaying the positive e ect. Another area of rampant specu- of deals.” J lion net profi t in 2020. Three months So what is the other side of the lation: Which airlines will survive One wild card that will help deter- “We have an industry that’s going to be profi table in good and later, IATA is forecasting a year-end- COVID-19 crisis going to look like? the crisis? JP Morgan sees far more mine what the post-COVID-19 indus- bad times.” loss of $40 billion, similar to what was It will likely include the return of risk outside North America, which try looks like is government aid. Italy seen in the 2008-09 global fi nancial high-yield demand but with fewer accounts for about 20% of global ca- is nationalizing perennially struggling The bad times have arrived, as any Numerous bankruptcies are expect- meltdown. IATA Director General airlines—particularly outside North pacity but 65% of airline profi ts. Last Alitalia, and carriers around the airline executive in the world can ated before the airline industry moves Alexandre de Juniac says the indus- America, say analysts at JP Morgan. year “was already witness to a record world are leaning on their govern- test. As COVID-19 spreads and an ev- into some kind of recovery mode. try will require $150-200 billion in Global business travel has been number of airline failures despite a ments for help. U.S. airlines also er-increasing number of countries go When that will happen is anyone’s government assistance to overcome crippled by national travel bans, mass salubrious fundamental backdrop,” want big money, asking the federal TT AS into lockdown, global air transport is guess, but the longer the devastating liquidity shortfalls. cancellations of conventions and oth- the bank noted. government for a $58 billion package grinding to a halt. Travel restrictions groundings continue, the less will be De Juniac believes one outcome of er major events and a rapidly expand- of grants and loans and relief from all abound, capacity cuts are reaching left of what had been a prospering the crisis will be industry consolida- ing push for people to isolate them- THE AMERICAS excise taxes through 2021. President 90% of normal levels, and more than industry globally. tion, as carriers are forced out of busi- selves as much as possible and work In the U.S., JP Morgan sees consoli- Donald Trump has signaled support 40 airlines have stopped fl ying alto- The questions now: When will prof- ness or form larger airlines to survive. from home. But has the panic gone dation coming before a major airline for the idea. gether, a number that is rising daily. itability return, and what will the in- And aircraft manufacturers and sup- too far? Investment bank JP Morgan failure. “Downturns have spurred “We’ll be backstopping the airlines

A depressing sight at airports worldwide—empty gates waiting for aircraft.

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 1 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

COVID-19 and Passenger Trafﬁc

21.9 25 1 P R P R P R $200 $19 $9

Countries with > 100 confirmed cases on March 15 Countries with 10-100 confirmed cases on March 15 *Domestic and international travel, overlaps removed Sources: IATA Economics and WHO Countries with < 10 confirmed on March 15

Source:

and helping them very much,” Trump from Europe and the UK, over con- 757 fl eet. Executives at Delta likewise toldSource: reporters IATA at the White House cerns about the spread of COVID-19. have signaled a willingness to retire briefi ng room hours after airlines pro- The sharp downturn in demand has the carrier’s last remaining MD-88s posed the bailout through their lobby- caused bookings to plummet, with and MD-90s early, as well as some of ing arm, Airlines for America (A4A). some carriers reporting cancellations its older 757s and 767s, as a result of “We’re going to be in a position to help outpacing new bookings by more than the COVID-19 crisis. the airlines very much.” a 2-to-1 ratio. “There is still signifi cant Using financial data from its The proposal, broken down by the uncertainty underlying assumptions, member airlines, A4A has modeled Eno Center for Transportation, would but today’s context is much worse scenarios of airline liquidity levels provide U.S. airlines with $29 billion than 9/11,” A4A said. through the end of the year absent in immediate grants—including $4 Virtually all U.S. carriers are slash- government relief, depending on the billion for cargo carriers—$29 bil- ing capacity, particularly on inter- accessibility of outside cash and cap- lion in loans and loan guarantees and national routes. Delta Air Lines cut ital markets. $7-10 billion in excise tax forgiveness. system-wide capacity by 70% and Under the optimistic scenario, with That dwarfs the $10 billion in loan parked up to 600 aircraft across its ready access to financial markets, guarantees the government made mainline and regional fl eets. United U.S. carriers would see net liquidity available after the Sept. 11, 2001, ter- Airlines has reduced its April sched- levels drop a combined 45% to $18 rorist attacks. Of that, just $1.2 billion ule by 60%, including a 42% reduction billion through the fi rst six months of was ever dispersed. in North American fl ying and an 85% the year, falling further to $16 billion U.S. airports have asked for an decrease in international service. And by year-end. additional $10 billion in immediate American Airlines reduced domestic Under the pessimistic scenario, grants to help o set the massive drop schedules by 20% in April and 30% in without sufficient sources of cash, in travel levels due to the COVID-19 May and suspended all but three in- A4A forecasts a 67% net drop in li- pandemic. The Airport Council In- ternational routes. Domestic-oriented quidity levels for passenger carriers ternational-North America estimates carriers, including Alaska Airlines, by June, to $12.8 billion, deepening that U.S. airports will lose $8.7 billion JetBlue Airways, Southwest Airlines to a deficit of-$14 billion by year- in 2020, a number a spokeswoman and Spirit Airlines, have all trimmed end. As of March 16, “the pessimistic said is “likely to grow as the fun- schedules 20-40%. scenario is looking most likely,” the damentals continue to erode.” The For some older, less-efficient air- trade group said. Should the Trump group forecasts passenger tra c at craft, the groundings could be per- administration enact a rumored 30- U.S. commercial airports will drop by manent. Cowen & Co. analyst Helane day domestic travel ban, the liquidi- 68% in the March-June period. Becker expects a “signifi cant portion” ty crisis facing U.S. airlines would be The requests for government aid of the aircraft being parked will re- even more severe. come on the heels of a two-week main out of service after the crisis In Latin America, the largest com- period that saw the position of U.S. subsides. American Airlines, for mercial carriers have suspended carriers rapidly deteriorate following example, has effectively retired its nearly all international flying and cascading worldwide travel bans, in- Boeing 767 fleet ahead of schedule, slashed domestic capacity as the fi - cluding a White House ban on travel and has accelerated retirement of its nancial fallout from the COVID-19 cri-

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION

sis reverberates. Chile-based LATAM port” as airlines cull schedules amid sion was ready to work with mem- COVID-19 and Passenger Traffic Airlines Group—the continent’s demand declines of 60% that are ber states to minimize permanent largest by fleet size and passengers continuing to rise. “The scale of the layoffs and damage to the Europe - flown—plans to reduce system-wide current industry crisis is much worse an aviation sector, by using the full capacity by 70%, including a 90% cut and far more widespread than 9/11, flexibility of state aid rules to grant to international flying. Rio de Janei- SARS or the 2008 global financial compensation to airlines under ro-based Gol curtailed its schedule crisis,” IATA said. Article 107(2)(b) TFEU for damages by 60-70%. Sao Paolo-based Azul will The European Commission (EC) suffered due to the COVID-19 out- reduce capacity by 35-50% in April. has sent member states a draft of pro- break, even if they have received res- 21.9 25 1 Bogota-based Avianca cut service posed changes to state aid rules that cue aid in the last 10 years. “In other P R P R P R 30-40%. And Panama’s Copa Airlines would provide more flexibility to sup- words, the ‘one time last time’ princi- $200 $19 $9 expects to reduce capacity more than port companies hit by the pandemic, ple does not apply.” 80% in April “without ruling out the as airline groups called for more sup- possibility of a complete, temporary port in the short term, as well as for CHINA shutdown of its operations.” longer-term post-crisis recoveries. Airlines in China, where the pandemic EC Executive Vice President broke out but is now easing, have been EUROPE AND Margrethe Vestager said March 17 restoring domestic capacity since the THE MIDDLE EAST that the commission wanted to ensure second half of February. They cau- Countries with > 100 confirmed cases on March 15 Most airlines in Europe are pulling businesses have the liquidity they tiously scheduled small increases in Countries with 10-100 confirmed cases on March 15 back flying by at least 80%. Lufthan- need and that support for a business international services—before chang- *Domestic and international travel, overlaps removed sa has grounded three subsidiaries— in one member state does not under- ing tack again in the second week of Sources: IATA Economics and WHO Countries with < 10 confirmed on March 15 Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines mine European unity. “We have to be March as the outbreak exploded in and Air Dolomiti—and will cut ca- able to rely on the European single Europe and North America. China Source: pacity by 95%. Norwegian and SAS market, to help our economy weath- Eastern Airlines will reduce or sus- Scandinavian Airlines are implement- er the outbreak, and bounce back pend flights on 11 European and North and helping them very much,” Trump from Europe and the UK, over con- 757 fl eet. Executives at Delta likewise ing temporary mass layoffs of most strongly afterward,” she said. American routes. toldSource: reporters IATA at the White House cerns about the spread of COVID-19. have signaled a willingness to retire of their staff. Skeleton networks re- New temporary rules could include Chinese authorities are moving to briefi ng room hours after airlines pro- The sharp downturn in demand has the carrier’s last remaining MD-88s main in place, mostly for repatriation aid in the form of grants, guaranteed forbid international flights from land- posed the bailout through their lobby- caused bookings to plummet, with and MD-90s early, as well as some of flights. Lufthansa Group will operate loans and subsidized interest rates ing directly in Beijing. Instead, they ing arm, Airlines for America (A4A). some carriers reporting cancellations its older 757s and 767s, as a result of propose, aircraft will “We’re going to be in a position to help outpacing new bookings by more than the COVID-19 crisis. have to land in other the airlines very much.” a 2-to-1 ratio. “There is still signifi cant Using financial data from its Seats in Europe and North America cities in Northern Chi- The proposal, broken down by the uncertainty underlying assumptions, member airlines, A4A has modeled -M 2020 na, where passengers Eno Center for Transportation, would but today’s context is much worse scenarios of airline liquidity levels will be given health provide U.S. airlines with $29 billion than 9/11,” A4A said. through the end of the year absent checks. If no sign of in immediate grants—including $4 Virtually all U.S. carriers are slash- government relief, depending on the the disease is found, billion for cargo carriers—$29 bil- ing capacity, particularly on inter- accessibility of outside cash and cap- the aircraft may pro- lion in loans and loan guarantees and national routes. Delta Air Lines cut ital markets. ceed to Beijing. If any- $7-10 billion in excise tax forgiveness. system-wide capacity by 70% and Under the optimistic scenario, with one aboard is afflicted, That dwarfs the $10 billion in loan parked up to 600 aircraft across its ready access to financial markets, the flight will go no guarantees the government made mainline and regional fl eets. United U.S. carriers would see net liquidity farther and the dan- available after the Sept. 11, 2001, ter- Airlines has reduced its April sched- levels drop a combined 45% to $18 ger to public health rorist attacks. Of that, just $1.2 billion ule by 60%, including a 42% reduction billion through the fi rst six months of will be handled locally. was ever dispersed. in North American fl ying and an 85% the year, falling further to $16 billion The policy was U.S. airports have asked for an decrease in international service. And by year-end. supposed to begin on additional $10 billion in immediate American Airlines reduced domestic Under the pessimistic scenario, March 18, but a day grants to help o set the massive drop schedules by 20% in April and 30% in without sufficient sources of cash, later had not been in travel levels due to the COVID-19 May and suspended all but three in- A4A forecasts a 67% net drop in li- fully implemented, pandemic. The Airport Council In- ternational routes. Domestic-oriented quidity levels for passenger carriers having met some re- ternational-North America estimates carriers, including Alaska Airlines, by June, to $12.8 billion, deepening sistance from inter- that U.S. airports will lose $8.7 billion JetBlue Airways, Southwest Airlines to a deficit of-$14 billion by year- mediate cities and in 2020, a number a spokeswoman and Spirit Airlines, have all trimmed end. As of March 16, “the pessimistic foreign airlines. It said is “likely to grow as the fun- schedules 20-40%. scenario is looking most likely,” the evidently addresses damentals continue to erode.” The For some older, less-efficient air- trade group said. Should the Trump the rising problem group forecasts passenger tra c at craft, the groundings could be per- administration enact a rumored 30- of imported cases of Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG U.S. commercial airports will drop by manent. Cowen & Co. analyst Helane day domestic travel ban, the liquidi- COVID-19, a result of 68% in the March-June period. Becker expects a “signifi cant portion” ty crisis facing U.S. airlines would be only 30 daily flights from Frankfurt to companies hit by the sudden and the spread of the contagion outside The requests for government aid of the aircraft being parked will re- even more severe. and 10 each from Munich plus three- dramatic drop in demand linked to of China and the scramble by the come on the heels of a two-week main out of service after the crisis In Latin America, the largest com- times-weekly long-haul services to the travel and social restrictions Chinese to return to their homeland, period that saw the position of U.S. subsides. American Airlines, for mercial carriers have suspended key destinations in Asia, Africa, Latin governments have put in place in a where the disease now appears to be carriers rapidly deteriorate following example, has effectively retired its nearly all international flying and America and North America. bid to slow down the spread of the well-controlled. cascading worldwide travel bans, in- Boeing 767 fleet ahead of schedule, slashed domestic capacity as the fi - For the Middle East, IATA is COVID-19 virus. Keeping COVID-19 controlled in cluding a White House ban on travel and has accelerated retirement of its nancial fallout from the COVID-19 cri- pleading for “urgent emergency sup- Vestager also said the commis- Beijing is particularly important to the

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 19 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

in February, and the International Seats in Southeast Asia carrier has plans for 201- 2020 a cut of 65% in March and as much as 90% in April, leaving what

it describes as a “bare skeleton” operation. Australian and New Zealand airlines are also adopting a va - riety of measures in response to the dis- solving demand. The governments of both countries have banned foreign nationals from entering and require 14-day quarantine periods for their own citizens and permanent A O residents if they arrive from overseas. Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG Qantas has made major changes, sus-

government,Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and and notOAG just because the In Southeast Asia, some govern- pending all of the group’s scheduled city is the capital. The authorities are ments are also effectively closing international flights from the end of also considering when to hold the an- down international travel. In Malay- March through at least the end of nual parliament session there, the dis- sia, for example, foreigners are barred May. Domestic capacity will be down ruption of which by a renewed disease from entry, and Malaysian nationals by 60%. outbreak would cause an intolerable are subject to a 14-day quarantine. The carrier will also stand down loss of face to the Communist Party. Hong Kong is requiring travelers two-thirds of its 30,000 employees for The airports to which international from all countries to undergo a com- the same period. They will be able to flights are supposed to be redirected pulsory self-quarantine. use various leave programs, but some are Hohhot, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan Airline capacity and traffic has will have to take unpaid leave. and Tianjin. already plummeted at some of the CEO Alan Joyce notes that Qantas region’s key hubs. Hong Kong Inter- has built up a strong financial position ASIA-PACIFIC national Airport saw its internation- in recent years, which gives it some Airlines and governments in the al seats drop by 82% from Jan. 27 breathing room. “A lot [of airlines] will Asia-Pacific region are implementing to March 16, according to data from go under, but Qantas will not be one a range of measures as they scramble CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG. of them,” he says. to adjust to sharp drops in passenger For Singapore’s Changi Airport, the Virgin Australia is suspending all traffic. decline over the same period was 40%. of its international operations from South Korea was one of the mar- Singapore Airlines has cut 50% of March 30 to June 14, and 50% of its kets hardest hit, since at one point it its capacity through the end of April domestic capacity. This will entail had the highest number of COVID-19 and has indicated that further reduc- the grounding of 53 aircraft. Virgin cases outside China. However, Seoul tions are to be expected. “We have lost is less exposed to the international appears to have slowed the spread of a large amount of our traffic in a very market than Qantas, with 78% of Vir- the virus, and now the focus has shift- short time, and it will not be viable for gin’s flight revenue coming from the ed to the growing outbreak in Europe. us to maintain our current network,” domestic sector. The country was one of the earliest says CEO Goh Choon Phong. “Make The Australian government un- markets outside China to be affected no mistake—we expect the pace of veiled an aviation support package by travel restrictions imposed by oth- this deterioration to accelerate [and worth A$715 million ($415 million) er countries due to COVID-19. Korean the group] must be prepared for a that includes waivers and refunds for Air had suspended 89 of its 124 inter- prolonged period of difficulty.” fuel excise taxes, domestic air traffic national routes as of March 13, and Cathay Pacific has been severely control fees and domestic aviation se- international flights were down 86%. affected by the restrictions in Hong curity charges. Taiwan imposed new travel restric- Kong and elsewhere in the world. Air New Zealand plans to cut long- tions effective March 19, barring al- The airline’s traffic was down 54% haul capacity by 85% in the coming most all foreign nationals from entry year-over-year in February, with load months, with capacity on its Austra- and requiring a 14-day quarantine for factor dropping 29 points to 53%. lian routes down 80% and domestic all passengers. The government is re- This resulted in a loss of HK$2 bil- flying reduced by 30%. The airline portedly offering loans and subsidies lion ($257.5 million) for that month estimates it will need to reduce its to help local airlines. alone. Passenger capacity fell 29% workforce of 12,500 by up to 30%. c

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION in February, and the Aerospace Manufacturing After nies have almost universally suffered International Seats in Southeast Asia carrier has plans for double-digit stock price declines and 201- 2020 a cut of 65% in March COVID-19 Will Be Different are looking to get ahead of the down- and as much as 90% turn; in April, leaving what > OEMs SEEK GOVERNMENT AID IN WORST CRISIS IN A GENERATION ■ Analysts and executives foresee a it describes as a “bare 20% or greater drop in commercial skeleton” operation. > AEROSPACE BUSINESS LIKELY TO SEE LONG-TERM RECASTING aftermarket revenue; and Australian and New ■ Some number of smaller suppli- Zealand airlines are Michael Bruno Washington, Jens Flottau Frankfurt and ers—already stretched thin with less also adopting a va - Thierry Dubois Lyon, France working capital from years of OEM- riety of measures in led squeezes—are expected to go out response to the dis- he aerospace manufacturing and restructuring on March 18. Finally, of business. solving demand. The industry has awakened to a Textron Aviation also announced it “It concerns me how many small governments of both nightmare. Already reeling furloughed workers for a month. suppliers will be able to withstand this T countries have banned from the Boeing 737 MAX grounding Cameron Doerksen, an analyst at downturn from a cash perspective,” foreign nationals from and shutdown, as well as narrowbody National Bank of Canada Financial one mid-tier executive says. “Cash is entering and require Markets, says the COVID-19 pan- king in this environment here.” manufacturing issues at Airbus and 14-day quarantine pe- softening widebody production across demic “represents a clear threat to But first may come relief for Boeing, riods for their own cit- the board, the COVID-19 virus now is the sustainability of the current aero- the world’s largest aerospace and de- izens and permanent crippling worldwide air travel, the rai- space cycle.” fense conglomerate. “I think we have A O residents if they arrive son d’etre for making airliners. AlixPartners Aerospace and De- to protect Boeing,” President Donald from overseas. Although aircraft manufacturers fense Managing Director Eric Bernar- Trump said on March 17 upon news of Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG Qantas has made and suppliers initially believed they dini warns of worse. “This downturn the OEM’s bailout bid. major changes, sus- were insulated from the worst of the will likely go deeper and last longer,” Credit analysts understand why. government,Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and and notOAG just because the In Southeast Asia, some govern- pending all of the group’s scheduled outbreak’s effects—because their he writes. S&P Global Ratings now believes city is the capital. The authorities are ments are also effectively closing international flights from the end of business moves more slowly and the “All aero bets are off,” echo Robert Boeing’s free cash outflow will hit $11- also considering when to hold the an- down international travel. In Malay- March through at least the end of long-term air traffic growth theory Stallard and Karl Oehlschlaeger of 12 billion this year before turning to an nual parliament session there, the dis- sia, for example, foreigners are barred May. Domestic capacity will be down still is seen as valid—the industry is Vertical Research Partners. “Suffice inflow of $13-14 billion in 2021, down ruption of which by a renewed disease from entry, and Malaysian nationals by 60%. quickly learning it is not a question of it to say that aero suppliers are going from $22 billion. The “much weaker” outbreak would cause an intolerable are subject to a 14-day quarantine. The carrier will also stand down “if” but “when” it too will suffer. to take it on the chin.” cash flow forecast led analysts there loss of face to the Communist Party. Hong Kong is requiring travelers two-thirds of its 30,000 employees for Governments from Asia to Amer- The latest developments stand in to downgrade Boeing’s credit from A The airports to which international from all countries to undergo a com- the same period. They will be able to ica have told their residents to stay stark opposition to public comments levels to BBB. Fitch Ratings also is flights are supposed to be redirected pulsory self-quarantine. use various leave programs, but some home, literally. Borders have been offered just weeks ago from industry leaning toward downgrading. are Hohhot, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan Airline capacity and traffic has will have to take unpaid leave. shut. Financial analysts see a global leaders who said they did not expect “Boeing enters this aerospace and Tianjin. already plummeted at some of the CEO Alan Joyce notes that Qantas recession beginning. Airline failures much impact from the coronavirus downcycle already wounded by MAX, region’s key hubs. Hong Kong Inter- has built up a strong financial position are expected (see page 16). crisis. While industry executives and and the question has started to be ASIA-PACIFIC national Airport saw its internation- in recent years, which gives it some In turn, aircraft order delays and advisors say it could take 1-2 quarters raised as to whether it can survive,” Airlines and governments in the al seats drop by 82% from Jan. 27 breathing room. “A lot [of airlines] will cancellations already are happening, for the effects to hit their bottom lines, the Vertical analysts note. “Ultimately, Asia-Pacific region are implementing to March 16, according to data from go under, but Qantas will not be one according to the International Air now they believe they must get ahead we think the U.S. government will take a range of measures as they scramble CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG. of them,” he says. Transport Association. Financial an- of the gathering downturn. the view that Boeing is too big to fail, to adjust to sharp drops in passenger For Singapore’s Changi Airport, the Virgin Australia is suspending all alysts are paring back expected de- “It looks like we’re the last to get but that could provide little comfort to traffic. decline over the same period was 40%. of its international operations from livery forecasts this year from major the memo,” the division chief of one equity investors.” South Korea was one of the mar- Singapore Airlines has cut 50% of March 30 to June 14, and 50% of its OEMs. Manufacturers and suppliers, major supplier tells Aviation Week. Boeing’s bailout bid leads those kets hardest hit, since at one point it its capacity through the end of April domestic capacity. This will entail meanwhile, are wondering whether to “Bottomline is it’s changing every day. from airlines, airports or mainte - had the highest number of COVID-19 and has indicated that further reduc- the grounding of 53 aircraft. Virgin shut down their factories to help stop It’s getting worse by the day. “When it nance, repair and overhaul represen- cases outside China. However, Seoul tions are to be expected. “We have lost is less exposed to the international the spread of COVID-19 or will do it comes back, it’s going to come back tatives. “This will be one of the most appears to have slowed the spread of a large amount of our traffic in a very market than Qantas, with 78% of Vir- anyway because orders will be delayed differently.” important ways for airlines, airports, the virus, and now the focus has shift- short time, and it will not be viable for gin’s flight revenue coming from the or canceled. None have announced Jefferies analysts Sheila Kahyaoglu suppliers and manufacturers to bridge ed to the growing outbreak in Europe. us to maintain our current network,” domestic sector. such moves yet, but several have and Greg Konrad cut their long-term to recovery,” Boeing says. “Funds would The country was one of the earliest says CEO Goh Choon Phong. “Make The Australian government un- confirmed to Aviation Week they are narrowbody production forecast to support the health of the broader avi- markets outside China to be affected no mistake—we expect the pace of veiled an aviation support package reviewing business continuity plans. a 3% compound annual growth rate ation industry, because much of any by travel restrictions imposed by oth- this deterioration to accelerate [and worth A$715 million ($415 million) Still, industry titans are moving to from 5%, matching their widebody liquidity support to Boeing will be used er countries due to COVID-19. Korean the group] must be prepared for a that includes waivers and refunds for get ahead of the issue. Boeing, on expectation of 3%. According to sev- for payments to suppliers to maintain Air had suspended 89 of its 124 inter- prolonged period of difficulty.” fuel excise taxes, domestic air traffic March 17, sought a $60 billion-plus eral analysts, advisors and executives: the health of the supply chain.” national routes as of March 13, and Cathay Pacific has been severely control fees and domestic aviation se- bailout from the U.S. government for ■ Widebody-related work is expected Boeing asserts the long-term out- international flights were down 86%. affected by the restrictions in Hong curity charges. itself and ostensibly its supply chain, to ratchet down far further, although look for the aerospace industry “is Taiwan imposed new travel restric- Kong and elsewhere in the world. Air New Zealand plans to cut long- and the Chicago company recently all aircraft manufacturing will see still strong, but until global passenger tions effective March 19, barring al- The airline’s traffic was down 54% haul capacity by 85% in the coming drew down the entirety of its new some degree of downturn; traffic resumes to normal levels, these most all foreign nationals from entry year-over-year in February, with load months, with capacity on its Austra- credit line of nearly $14 billion. The ■ Narrowbody order delays and can- measures are needed to manage the and requiring a 14-day quarantine for factor dropping 29 points to 53%. lian routes down 80% and domestic same day, Airbus shuttered produc- cellations will climb; pressure on the aviation sector and all passengers. The government is re- This resulted in a loss of HK$2 bil- flying reduced by 30%. The airline tion in France and Spain for four days. ■ Aerostructures providers are seen the economy as a whole.” portedly offering loans and subsidies lion ($257.5 million) for that month estimates it will need to reduce its Triumph Group announced a fresh as the most vulnerable sector; Analysts are less sure versus to help local airlines. alone. Passenger capacity fell 29% workforce of 12,500 by up to 30%. c round of significant workforce cuts ■ Publicly traded aerospace compa- just weeks ago. “Even before the

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 21 COMMERCIAL AVIATION AirlinerAirliner Order Order Cancellations Cancellations P P , , 2000-202000-20

Cancellations percent of deliveries Cancellations percent of deliveries CancellationsCancellations percent percent of delivery of delivery average average 2000-19 2000-19 = 18.7%= 18.7% CancellationsCancellations percent percent of orders of orders CancellationsCancellations percent percent of orders of orders average average 2000-19 2000-19 = 12.6%= 12.6%

P C P P C P

to March 12 to March 12 Source: Jefferies

COVID-19 crisis, demand for new to prepare for a massive, multiyear finance and customer relations. The aircraft had been softening,” Doerk- downturn that will see it get back to crisis group was first set up in the sen says.Source: “We Jefferies attribute this partly to previous production volumes only 2008-09 global financial crisis and the verySource: Jefferiesstrong order activity in prior past 2027 because much of its current was primarily tasked with managing years and the very long backlogs at backlog is disappearing as a result of the multiple requests for deferrals and Airbus and Boeing.” deferrals and cancellations made by financing. Moreover, if airlines ratchet back airlines and lessors trying to deal Indeed, business continuity is on capacity growth and there are with the coronavirus crisis, analysts perhaps the biggest challenge of all. airline failures, he thinks there will at Agency Partners forecast. Industry remains almost singularly not only be lower-order activity but Production rates will be “cut in- convinced that the long-term outlook also deferrals of existing orders. Al- creasingly rapidly through 2020 and still is positive, based on rising middle most 30% of Airbus’ backlog is in the 2021,” Agency Partners writes in a classes worldwide that want to travel Asia-Pacific region, according to the note to clients. “This will, in our view, for leisure. analyst, where most airlines have expose the company to negative op- “We know this situation will come been hard hit by the crisis. Boeing erational gearing, with the A330 and to an end at some point; therefore, we has 25% of its backlog from airlines A350 both likely to fall into loss in are in a stop-and-go situation, which in Southeast Asia. 2021 and the A320neo profits halving.” is very difficult to manage in manufac- “We are also concerned about orders Given that it is difficult for airlines to turing—especially for a complex prod- from lessors, because if there is now defer aircraft at very short notice, uct with an intense production rate,” an oversupply of aircraft in the market Airbus might still deliver a substan- says Jerome Bouchard, aerospace and if airline failures accelerate, lessors tial portion of its targeted deliveries, partner with Oliver Wyman. will not need many of the aircraft they albeit needing very substantial sales But the further a supplier is from have on order in the short-to-medium financing, the analysts say. “But 2021 the OEM, such as Tier 2 or 3, the term,” Doerksen adds. will see an unmoderated downturn” smaller it is and the more it specializes Without identifying any bailout with both Airbus Commercial and the in a product. Therefore, for lower-tier bid, Aerospace Industries Associa- group making losses. Airbus could see suppliers, questions should be raised tion President and CEO Eric Fanning a cash outflow of more than €18 bil- about survivability, Bouchard says. says government action is necessary. lion ($19.4 billion) between now and Longer term, industry likely will “Few industries are more inextrica- the end of 2022. come to believe as a whole that man- bly linked to our nation’s continued Airbus sources tell Aviation Week ufacturing and supply activities have success and global competitiveness that leadership is making “business been offshored to an excessive extent than aerospace and defense,” he says. continuity” its highest priority and to cheaper, remote labor markets, “Right now, extraordinary challenges is trying to avoid a complete tempo- Bouchard explains. When a wave of to our workforce and our heavily in- rary stop, because a ramp-up from repatriation of the supply chain comes, tegrated supply chain are reverberat- zero would be extremely challenging, France’s Tier 2 and 3 suppliers will bet- ing across America’s industrial base, considering all the implications for ter be able to make the most of it. which in turn is having a major and suppliers. Airbus also has reinstated The same could be said of OEMs measurable impact on our economy.” a group called “watchtower,” made and suppliers everywhere, as it might Across the Atlantic, Airbus has up of representatives of production, be the only upshot of this crisis. c

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION AirlinerAirliner Order Order Cancellations Cancellations P , 2000-20 Know. P , 2000-20

Cancellations percent of deliveries Predict. Cancellations percent of deliveries CancellationsCancellations percent percent of delivery of delivery average average 2000-19 2000-19 = 18.7%= 18.7% CancellationsCancellations percent percent of orders of orders CancellationsCancellations percent percent of orders of orders average average 2000-19 2000-19 = 12.6%= 12.6% Connect.

P C P P C P

to March 12 to March 12 Source: Jefferies

COVID-19 crisis, demand for new to prepare for a massive, multiyear finance and customer relations. The aircraft had been softening,” Doerk- downturn that will see it get back to crisis group was first set up in the sen says.Source: “We Jefferies attribute this partly to previous production volumes only 2008-09 global financial crisis and the verySource: Jefferiesstrong order activity in prior past 2027 because much of its current was primarily tasked with managing years and the very long backlogs at backlog is disappearing as a result of the multiple requests for deferrals and Airbus and Boeing.” deferrals and cancellations made by financing. Moreover, if airlines ratchet back airlines and lessors trying to deal Indeed, business continuity is on capacity growth and there are with the coronavirus crisis, analysts perhaps the biggest challenge of all. airline failures, he thinks there will at Agency Partners forecast. Industry remains almost singularly not only be lower-order activity but Production rates will be “cut in- convinced that the long-term outlook also deferrals of existing orders. Al- creasingly rapidly through 2020 and still is positive, based on rising middle most 30% of Airbus’ backlog is in the 2021,” Agency Partners writes in a classes worldwide that want to travel Asia-Pacific region, according to the note to clients. “This will, in our view, for leisure. analyst, where most airlines have expose the company to negative op- “We know this situation will come been hard hit by the crisis. Boeing erational gearing, with the A330 and to an end at some point; therefore, we has 25% of its backlog from airlines A350 both likely to fall into loss in are in a stop-and-go situation, which in Southeast Asia. 2021 and the A320neo profits halving.” is very difficult to manage in manufac- “We are also concerned about orders Given that it is difficult for airlines to turing—especially for a complex prod- from lessors, because if there is now defer aircraft at very short notice, uct with an intense production rate,” an oversupply of aircraft in the market Airbus might still deliver a substan- says Jerome Bouchard, aerospace Business-critical information, predictive intelligence and and if airline failures accelerate, lessors tial portion of its targeted deliveries, partner with Oliver Wyman. connections with opportunities and people. That’s how will not need many of the aircraft they albeit needing very substantial sales But the further a supplier is from have on order in the short-to-medium financing, the analysts say. “But 2021 the OEM, such as Tier 2 or 3, the the Aviation Week Network helps you make decisions term,” Doerksen adds. will see an unmoderated downturn” smaller it is and the more it specializes and build your business. Without identifying any bailout with both Airbus Commercial and the in a product. Therefore, for lower-tier bid, Aerospace Industries Associa- group making losses. Airbus could see suppliers, questions should be raised Delivering award-winning journalism, deep data and tion President and CEO Eric Fanning a cash outflow of more than €18 bil- about survivability, Bouchard says. analytics, world-class events, and content-driven says government action is necessary. lion ($19.4 billion) between now and Longer term, industry likely will marketing services, our core principle is helping our “Few industries are more inextrica- the end of 2022. come to believe as a whole that man- customers succeed. bly linked to our nation’s continued Airbus sources tell Aviation Week ufacturing and supply activities have success and global competitiveness that leadership is making “business been offshored to an excessive extent than aerospace and defense,” he says. continuity” its highest priority and to cheaper, remote labor markets, Let’s grow your business. “Right now, extraordinary challenges is trying to avoid a complete tempo- Bouchard explains. When a wave of to our workforce and our heavily in- rary stop, because a ramp-up from repatriation of the supply chain comes, aviationweek.com/productservices tegrated supply chain are reverberat- zero would be extremely challenging, France’s Tier 2 and 3 suppliers will bet- ing across America’s industrial base, considering all the implications for ter be able to make the most of it. which in turn is having a major and suppliers. Airbus also has reinstated The same could be said of OEMs measurable impact on our economy.” a group called “watchtower,” made and suppliers everywhere, as it might Across the Atlantic, Airbus has up of representatives of production, be the only upshot of this crisis. c Know. Predict. Connect. 22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Emirates Airline says it sends deep-cleaning teams to disinfect aircraft cabins before departures from Dubai.

EMIRATES PHOTOS COVID-19 Outbreak Ushers In New all its flights, both during the day and after the completion of flights at night.” Cabin-Cleaning Techniques The airline adds that it has established a process to work with “a specialized disinfection company in cases where a AS COVID-19 SPREADS, AIRLINES TAKE STRINGENT > possible affected passenger is report- CABIN DISINFECTION MEASURES ed” by health authorities. IATA MIGHT ADJUST EXISTING CLEANLINESS GUIDELINES In the U.S., Delta Air Lines and Unit- > ed Airlines both issued statements via Kerry Reals London Twitter on March 6, linking to information on how they are stepping up ircraft cabin-cleaning guid- passenger numbers indicate that the cleaning procedures. Delta says it has ance could be revised in light traveling public remains unconvinced. “doubled down on its regular cleaning Aof the ongoing global COVID-19 In a move to reassure passengers, a program” and has added a fogging outbreak, as airlines scramble to con- number of airlines have made public process “to disinfect transoceanic air- vince nervous passengers that flying statements in recent days emphasizing craft interiors.” The process is more is still safe despite plummeting air the cleanliness of their aircraft cabins; commonly used by the food industry. travel demand. for instance, in a YouTube video posted “As transoceanic flights come in, fog- At an International Air Transport by Emirates Airline on March 8, the ging takes place after an initial clean- Association (IATA) workshop in Sin- Dubai-based carrier says it is “working ing, this time with tray tables lowered gapore in early March, during which round the clock to ensure our aircraft and overhead bins and lavatory doors existing recommendations on cleaning cabins are the cleanest in the skies.” open. Seatback entertainment touch and disinfecting aircraft cabins were Emirates says in the video that 248 screens are given an extra cleanse discussed, members suggested the of its aircraft are deep-cleaned every using disinfectant wipes,” Delta adds. possibility of “reviewing and/or stan- day before departing Dubai. It adds: United says that in addition to thor- dardizing routine cleaning guidelines “All our aircraft now undergo extensive, oughly wiping down hard surfaces such for aircraft,” the industry body says. deep cabin-cleaning and disinfection— as tray tables, window shades and arm- While IATA has determined that from windows, armrests, tray tables rests with a “high-grade disinfectant” its existing guidelines “remain ap - and TV screens to bassinets, lavato- and undertaking a “full decontamina- propriate,” it says that “some minor ries and common areas.” In the case of tion process” for aircraft with suspect- adjustments [are] possible.” The trade aircraft with a suspected or confirmed ed coronavirus cases on board, it will group stresses that so far during the case of COVID-19 on board, Emirates soon start using “an electrostatic fogger COVID-19 outbreak—which now affects follows enhanced cleaning protocols, to disinfect the air and surfaces within more than 100 countries—“we have whereby cabins are “defogged and the cabin on all international arrivals not seen evidence of [the virus spread- misted with special disinfectant.” into our U.S. hubs, Honolulu and Guam.” ing] during air travel, either in air- Greek carrier Aegean Airlines Airlines are also starting to look ports or on aircraft.” However, IATA’s states that it has “amplified standard at specialized cleaning companies, forecasts of double-digit drops in aircraft-cleaning procedures between whose usual customers include cruise

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Emirates Airline says it sends deep-cleaning teams to disinfect aircraft cabins before departures from Dubai. lines, food-processing companies and craft cabins very soon, and there is a ing the coronavirus headlines. the hospitality sector, to see if their long list of [airline] inquiries that we’re “A global crisis like we see today products could be applied to aviation. in dialog [about] now,” Luscher says. certainly raises the awareness among One such company, Denmark-based “We would be able to apply [the coat- passengers on hygienic topics while ACT.Global, has seen “a massive ing] more or less immediately after an traveling,” Hiller says. “People have a spike” in inquiries from airlines about operator [receives approval to use it].” need to feel safe and secure, and our how its Premium Purity cleaning sys- The product takes about 4 hr. to apply. products cater for this very personal tem could be used to disinfect aircraft Challenges unique to aircraft cabins, need. We expect the solution we offer cabins, Chief Technical Officer Chris- however, could limit the effectiveness will become more important for airlines topher Luscher tells Aviation Week. of the system. “The issue with aircraft around the globe and will add to the The system works by applying a is it’s a tight space with dimmed light, overall value proposition of the airline.” trans parent, odorless coating to all so there are still times when you have Passengers are not the only ones con- surfaces. When the coating is exposed risk profiles,” Luscher admits. cerned about safety. The Association of to ambient lighting, a photocatalytic Nonetheless, ACT.Global is “pitch- Flight Attendants (AFA) is pressing air- reaction takes place that, the company ing to airlines” to consider apply - lines to provide “proper resources and says, causes harmful microbes such as ing the coating to “primary contact procedures to mitigate risk to working bacteria and viruses—including the points” such as aircraft lavatories in crews.” The union’s recommendations coronavirus that causes COVID-19— the first instance, although the system include encouraging passengers and to decompose. The process “acceler- can also be applied to seats, tray tables crew to avoid travel while sick by re- ates the natural aging of microbes,” and other surfaces within the cabin. moving penalties for altering plans or Luscher says. Four years ago, Boeing unveiled a work schedules and covering all medical The coating is effective for 12 self-cleaning lavatory concept that costs and lost wages for aviation work- months, although ACT.Global also rec- uses ultraviolet light between each ers who are exposed during their work.

EMIRATES PHOTOS ommends daily cleaning between the use “to destroy all known microbes.” Airlines “have not fully implemented annual coatings because spillages and The airframer says it tested what it the recommendations,” the AFA says, COVID-19 Outbreak Ushers In New all its flights, both during the day and dust buildups can form a barrier be- now calls the Fresh Lav on the 777 but managers “have taken actions after the completion of flights at night.” tween the lighting and the coating, re- ecoDemostrator in 2019. Its integra- that exceed CDC [Centers for Disease Cabin-Cleaning Techniques The airline adds that it has established ducing its effectiveness. The company tion into “the cabin of the future will Control and Prevention] guidelines and a process to work with “a specialized has developed a water-and-salt-based be paced by market interest and tech- instruction.” The CDC’s recommenda- disinfection company in cases where a cleaning product for this purpose that, nology development,” Boeing adds. tions for cabin crew include frequent AS COVID-19 SPREADS, AIRLINES TAKE STRINGENT > possible affected passenger is report- it says, can be used without protective Market interest for such products handwashing with soap and water for CABIN DISINFECTION MEASURES ed” by health authorities. gloves or masks because it “replaces could increase on the back of the at least 20 sec., the use of alcohol-based IATA MIGHT ADJUST EXISTING CLEANLINESS GUIDELINES In the U.S., Delta Air Lines and Unit- strong chemicals and disinfectants.” COVID-19 crisis. Aircraft seats manu- hand sanitizer with an alcohol content > ed Airlines both issued statements via For airlines with short turnarounds, facturer Recaro is preparing for an “in- of at least 60% when soap and water Kerry Reals London Twitter on March 6, linking to infor- Luscher acknowledges that cleaning flux of requests” for a self-cleaning seat are not available, the separation of sick mation on how they are stepping up protocols would “need to be balanced” it has developed, CEO Mark Hiller tells travelers by a distance of 6 ft. (2 m), and ircraft cabin-cleaning guid- passenger numbers indicate that the cleaning procedures. Delta says it has with the amount of time available be- Aviation Week. “As of now, this hasn’t the wearing of medical gloves when ance could be revised in light traveling public remains unconvinced. “doubled down on its regular cleaning tween flights. He cautions, however, happened. Nevertheless, we expect helping a sick passenger or touching Aof the ongoing global COVID-19 In a move to reassure passengers, a program” and has added a fogging that if one airline passenger is infected an increased demand for antibacteri- potentially contaminated surfaces. outbreak, as airlines scramble to con- number of airlines have made public process “to disinfect transoceanic air- with the coronavirus, then the aircraft al materials as soon as the travel bans It is not yet known how long the vince nervous passengers that flying statements in recent days emphasizing craft interiors.” The process is more cabin “effectively becomes an incuba- decrease,” Hiller says. COVID-19 virus will continue to spread is still safe despite plummeting air the cleanliness of their aircraft cabins; commonly used by the food industry. tor where the virus can spread from Recaro has designed a “nano coat- before tapering off. What is clear is that travel demand. for instance, in a YouTube video posted “As transoceanic flights come in, fog- passenger to passenger.” Viruses can ing” that it says provides long-lasting it is not the first virus to affect demand At an International Air Transport by Emirates Airline on March 8, the ging takes place after an initial clean- live on surfaces for an average of 4-5 antibacterial protection for aircraft for air travel, and it probably will not be Association (IATA) workshop in Sin- Dubai-based carrier says it is “working ing, this time with tray tables lowered days, sometimes longer, he adds, so if seats. “The coating cannot be recog- the last, as the airline industry knows gapore in early March, during which round the clock to ensure our aircraft and overhead bins and lavatory doors an infected passenger sneezes near a nized by passengers. It contains an only too well after having suffered the existing recommendations on cleaning cabins are the cleanest in the skies.” open. Seatback entertainment touch hard surface, “small droplets will per- antibacterial active substance and can effects of the Severe Acute Respira- and disinfecting aircraft cabins were Emirates says in the video that 248 screens are given an extra cleanse sist for a number of days.” be applied on almost all seat compo- tory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic of discussed, members suggested the of its aircraft are deep-cleaned every using disinfectant wipes,” Delta adds. The World Health Organization nents that have direct contact with the 2003 and 2009’s swine flu outbreak. possibility of “reviewing and/or stan- day before departing Dubai. It adds: United says that in addition to thor- (WHO) says on its website that al - passenger,” Hiller says, adding that the “Other [viruses] will occur over and dardizing routine cleaning guidelines “All our aircraft now undergo extensive, oughly wiping down hard surfaces such though “it is not certain how long the coating can “reduce costs and optimize over again, and they will mutate and for aircraft,” the industry body says. deep cabin-cleaning and disinfection— as tray tables, window shades and arm- virus that causes COVID-19 survives on cleaning procedures for airlines.” jump species,” Luscher says, adding While IATA has determined that from windows, armrests, tray tables rests with a “high-grade disinfectant” surfaces,” it seems to behave like oth- Because COVID-19 is a viral rather that the COVID-19 outbreak—which its existing guidelines “remain ap - and TV screens to bassinets, lavato- and undertaking a “full decontamina- er coronaviruses. “Studies suggest that than a bacterial infection, however, has already affected thousands more propriate,” it says that “some minor ries and common areas.” In the case of tion process” for aircraft with suspect- coronaviruses (including preliminary Recaro cannot claim its effectiveness people than SARS—could usher in adjustments [are] possible.” The trade aircraft with a suspected or confirmed ed coronavirus cases on board, it will information on the COVID-19 virus) against the coronavirus. “In order to more stringent aircraft cabin-clean- group stresses that so far during the case of COVID-19 on board, Emirates soon start using “an electrostatic fogger may persist on surfaces for a few hours state that this coating type is effec- ing regulations. COVID-19 outbreak—which now affects follows enhanced cleaning protocols, to disinfect the air and surfaces within or up to several days,” the WHO states. tive against [COVID-19], we would “I would imagine the airline industry more than 100 countries—“we have whereby cabins are “defogged and the cabin on all international arrivals Luscher admits that the airline need to test the virus SARS-CoV-2, would be forced to have better hygiene not seen evidence of [the virus spread- misted with special disinfectant.” into our U.S. hubs, Honolulu and Guam.” industry was “not our intended seg- which is not the case yet,” Hiller says. protocols in lavatories and food-han- ing] during air travel, either in air- Greek carrier Aegean Airlines Airlines are also starting to look ment” but says the COVID-19 outbreak Nevertheless, he believes general hy- dling areas,” he says. “For the cabin it- ports or on aircraft.” However, IATA’s states that it has “amplified standard at specialized cleaning companies, “has illuminated an issue.” giene and cleanliness will be at the self, [disinfection rules] are more likely forecasts of double-digit drops in aircraft-cleaning procedures between whose usual customers include cruise “We’re working on getting into air- forefront of passengers’ minds follow- to be recommended than enforced.” c

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 25 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Ethiopian MAX Crash Report were given additional information or new procedures related to the MCAS. Deflects Attention From Pilots’ Role The interim document also does not dig into several other areas that usual- > FOCUS IS ON FAILURES OF MAX FLIGHT CONTROL SYSTEM ly interest investigators and often end up in accident reports. Information on > FLIGHT CREW PERFORMANCE IS NOT ADDRESSED the crew’s training history is limited to basic facts, such as dates of when type Sean Broderick Washington ratings were earned and proficiency checks completed. There are no spe- he Ethiopian Accident Investi- two key differences between the JT610 cifics on how each pilot performed. gation Bureau’s interim report and ET302 accidents: The Lion Air Similarly, details on the airline’s Ton what happened to Ethiopian crew had no idea the MCAS existed, flight-training program are limited to Airlines Flight 302 points to mistakes but the ET302 crew apparently did. its academy’s capabilities. Absent from Boeing and the FAA made in design- The bureau’s report says the govern- the report is any discussion about the ing and certifying the Boeing 737 MAX ment-owned airline revised its MAX carrier’s standard operating proce- and to deficiencies in recommended flight manuals on the day the directive dures or its 737-specific curriculum— pilot training as the primary factors was released. Many carriers and pilot information that investigators often in the accident sequence. The report offers little insight into flight crew actions or training, signaling that inves- Wiring modifications are now among the fixes tigators do not see pilot performance Boeing must make before the MAX can fly again. as a factor in the disaster. Released March 9, a day before the one-year anniversary of the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 (ET302) accident, the 136-page report says all analysis will be included in a final version. The facts laid out dive deeply into the 737 MAX’s Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) flight control law, which provides automatic horizontal stabilizer input in certain flaps-up, manual flight profiles. The MCAS is at the center of the crash of ET302 and that of Lion Air Flight 610 (JT610) in October 2018. In both accidents, the MCAS was activated by erroneous data from one of the MAX’s two angle-of-attack (AOA) sensors, triggering a series of unneed- ed, automatic nose-down inputs that confused and ultimately overwhelmed the crews. The MCAS’ existence became widely known following the JT610 accident. The FAA issued an emergency air- work groups issued detailed memos on use to frame facts detailed in the re- worthiness directive in early Novem- the MCAS to their pilots following Boe- port or highlight deviations. ber 2019 that explained the system’s ing’s revelation that the system existed One key observation made in the pre- function and failure modes but did not and was linked to JT610. Some airlines liminary report released a month after use the MCAS name. Boeing quickly modified their preflight briefings and the accident is not revisited in the more followed up with an airline operators’ added information from the directive, detailed interim report. Among the find- message that referenced the MCAS such as the signs of an AOA failure and ings in the April 2019 initial update on specifically, introducing it to most pi- a reminder to follow appropriate check- the probe: The crew “performed run- lots for the first time. lists, including “stabilizer runaway.” away stabilizer checklist” during their While the first accident was enough This helped clarify a key and ultimate- troubleshooting but could move the sta- to prompt Boeing to start work on ly wrong assumption Boeing had made bilizer with the manual trim wheel. The changing the MCAS software—part during the MAX’s development: Pilots new report confirms the stabilizer-trim of a series of MAX updates that are would quickly diagnose an uncommand- cutout switches were toggled, and the still not finalized—the system was not ed MCAS activation as runaway stabi- pilots attempted to use the manual trim thrust into the spotlight until after the lizer and therefore did not need details wheel. But the report does not discuss ET302 accident. Existence of the FAA on how the system worked. The report any checklists nor offer evidence that directive and the Boeing message are does not say whether Ethiopian’s crews the pilots referenced them.

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Ethiopian MAX Crash Report were given additional information or The ET302 crew’s reactions to the pilots retracted the flaps. The MCAS still receiving the faulty AOA data—to new procedures related to the MCAS. MCAS activation included pulling trimmed the stabilizer nose-down activate again. The ET302 crew ini- Deflects Attention From Pilots’ Role The interim document also does not back on their control yokes and using from 4.6 units to 2.1 units. The crew re- tially was able to climb but could not dig into several other areas that usual- yoke-mounted electric-trim switch in- sponded with 2 sec. of column-mount- counter the MCAS nose-down inputs. > FOCUS IS ON FAILURES OF MAX FLIGHT CONTROL SYSTEM ly interest investigators and often end puts to counter the automatic stabiliz- ed manual electric-trim inputs, moving The aircraft pitched over, sped up and up in accident reports. Information on er nose-down commands. But the pilots the stabilizer to 2.4 units. impacted the terrain, killing all 149 > FLIGHT CREW PERFORMANCE IS NOT ADDRESSED the crew’s training history is limited to did not counter all the MCAS input. The Five seconds after the crew stopped passengers and eight crew members. basic facts, such as dates of when type faulty AOA data continued to trigger the its trim inputs, the MCAS—still sens- Stabilizer trim components recovered Sean Broderick Washington ratings were earned and proficiency automatic pitch-adjustment function, ing the faulty AOA data—activated at the crash site show the stabilizer’s checks completed. There are no spe- and the aircraft became more out of again. The stabilizer moved to 0.4 final position was 2.5 units, or 1.5 deg. he Ethiopian Accident Investi- two key differences between the JT610 cifics on how each pilot performed. trim and harder to keep from descend- units in 6 sec. before the crew inter- aircraft nose-down. gation Bureau’s interim report and ET302 accidents: The Lion Air Similarly, details on the airline’s ing as the 6-min. flight progressed. rupted it with 9 sec. of electric-trim in- The ministry’s report makes clear Ton what happened to Ethiopian crew had no idea the MCAS existed, flight-training program are limited to The 737 stabilizer positions range put, moving the stabilizer to 2.3 units. that faulty AOA data started the fatal Airlines Flight 302 points to mistakes but the ET302 crew apparently did. its academy’s capabilities. Absent from from 0 trim units aircraft nose-down After the second MCAS activation, accident sequence because the MAX’s Boeing and the FAA made in design- The bureau’s report says the govern- the report is any discussion about the to 17 units nose-up, with 4 being neu- the crew toggled stabilizer-trim cut- flight control computer software de- ing and certifying the Boeing 737 MAX ment-owned airline revised its MAX carrier’s standard operating proce- tral. These correspond to a range from out switches, which prevented the tected, erroneously, that the aircraft’s and to deficiencies in recommended flight manuals on the day the directive dures or its 737-specific curriculum— 4.2 deg. nose-down to 12.9 deg. nose-up. trim motor from moving the stabi- nose was too high. That activated the pilot training as the primary factors was released. Many carriers and pilot information that investigators often When ET302 departed, the stabiliz- lizer but also left pilots with only the MCAS and the series of nose-down in the accident sequence. The report hand-operated trim wheel to move the stabilizer movements. Boeing’s MAX offers little insight into flight crew ac- flight-control surface. training, which did not cover the MCAS tions or training, signaling that inves- Wiring modifications are now among the fixes Aerodynamic forces created during a system, “was found to be inadequate.” tigators do not see pilot performance Boeing must make before the MAX can fly again. runaway-stabilizer scenario can render The failed JT610 AOA sensor re- as a factor in the disaster. the trim wheel, mounted between the sulted from a supplier’s improper cal- Released March 9, a day before the pilots on the center pedestal, nearly im- ibration. The Ethiopian report does one-year anniversary of the Ethiopian possible to crank. If one pilot is pulling not say why ET302’s vane failed. Airlines Flight 302 (ET302) accident, back on the yoke—a natural reaction to Also absent from the report: a cock- the 136-page report says all analysis counteract uncommanded nose-down pit voice recorder (CVR) transcript or will be included in a final version. The inputs—the force on the elevator, part synopsis that would add context to the facts laid out dive deeply into the 737 of the horizontal stabilizer, increases. pilots’ actions. CVR conversation could MAX’s Maneuvering Characteristics This makes the stabilizer harder to help explain whether the captain cross- Augmentation System (MCAS) flight move. Add in an airspeed increase that checked his instruments with the first control law, which provides automatic a nose-down attitude introduces, and officer’s when the single stick-shaker -ac horizontal stabilizer input in certain the situation becomes more difficult. tivated, or why the crew did not reduce flaps-up, manual flight profiles. This is what the ET302 crew faced. the aircraft’s engine power settings. The MCAS is at the center of the When the pilots attempted to adjust The accident investigation bureau, crash of ET302 and that of Lion Air the stabilizer manually, the mis-trim was part of Ethiopia’s transport ministry, Flight 610 (JT610) in October 2018. 2.5 units, the report says. The aircraft’s provided draft copies of the interim re- In both accidents, the MCAS was ac- airspeed—its thrust levers still where port to U.S. parties participating in the tivated by erroneous data from one of they were at takeoff—soon exceeded probe, including the FAA and NTSB, the MAX’s two angle-of-attack (AOA) its maximum 340 kt. This triggered an less than a week before it was publicly sensors, triggering a series of unneed- overspeed “clacker,” or alert, that was released. The draft report had included ed, automatic nose-down inputs that active for the flight’s final 2 min. 30 sec. a probable cause, sources familiar with confused and ultimately overwhelmed “By the time the [first officer] tried its contents confirmed. The bureau’s the crews. to move the trim wheel manually, a conclusion: The MCAS caused the ac- The MCAS’ existence became wide- force between 42-53 lb. was required cident. Pushback from parties arguing ly known following the JT610 accident. SEAN BRODERICK/AW&ST according to the aircraft manufacturer in part that an incomplete investigation The FAA issued an emergency air- work groups issued detailed memos on use to frame facts detailed in the re- er was at 5.6 units, “a consistent set- computation,” the report says. Inves- cannot have a conclusion led to the worthiness directive in early Novem- the MCAS to their pilots following Boe- port or highlight deviations. ting for the takeoff,” the report says. tigators determined that the ET302 probable cause’s removal. ber 2019 that explained the system’s ing’s revelation that the system existed One key observation made in the pre- “During takeoff roll, the engines stabi- crew would have needed 40 turns of The FAA says it is “important to have function and failure modes but did not and was linked to JT610. Some airlines liminary report released a month after lized at about 94% N1,” or low-pressure the wheel to correct the 2.5 trim units. the full final report to evaluate it against use the MCAS name. Boeing quickly modified their preflight briefings and the accident is not revisited in the more compressor rotation speed. “From this Simulator trials done as part of the other independent reports so that we followed up with an airline operators’ added information from the directive, detailed interim report. Among the find- point for most of the flight, the N1 ref- probe found that difficulty in turning might fully understand all of the fac- message that referenced the MCAS such as the signs of an AOA failure and ings in the April 2019 initial update on erence remained about 94%.” the wheel increased as airspeed and tors—both mechanical and human— specifically, introducing it to most pi- a reminder to follow appropriate check- the probe: The crew “performed run- Shortly after the 737-8 lifted off amount of mis-trim increased. Inves- that played a role” in the accident. lots for the first time. lists, including “stabilizer runaway.” away stabilizer checklist” during their from Addis Ababa Bole International tigators concluded the trim wheel was Boeing is working to finalize changes While the first accident was enough This helped clarify a key and ultimate- troubleshooting but could move the sta- Airport Runway 07R, the aircraft’s “not movable” at airspeeds higher to the MAX, including MCAS revi - to prompt Boeing to start work on ly wrong assumption Boeing had made bilizer with the manual trim wheel. The left-side AOA value began to fluctuate than 220 kt. and mis-trim values of 2.5 sions and updated training. It also will changing the MCAS software—part during the MAX’s development: Pilots new report confirms the stabilizer-trim wildly. “As a result of the erroneous units or more, the report says. reroute stabilizer motor power wires of a series of MAX updates that are would quickly diagnose an uncommand- cutout switches were toggled, and the left AOA value, the left [captain’s] stick Unable to crank the trim wheel, the on all stored MAXs to bring them into still not finalized—the system was not ed MCAS activation as runaway stabi- pilots attempted to use the manual trim shaker activated,” the report says. It ET302 crew toggled cutout switches regulatory compliance before they are thrust into the spotlight until after the lizer and therefore did not need details wheel. But the report does not discuss remained active throughout the flight. back to “normal,” which the run- delivered. Boeing is quietly optimis- ET302 accident. Existence of the FAA on how the system worked. The report any checklists nor offer evidence that The faulty AOA data set the stage away-stabilizer checklist says should tic that the FAA’s approval will come directive and the Boeing message are does not say whether Ethiopian’s crews the pilots referenced them. for the MCAS to activate once ET302’s not be done. This set up the MCAS— around midyear. c

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 27 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Britain’s EASA Exit Decision Is Built “comprehensive plans” to prepare for a possible departure from EASA. The on Ideology Rather Than Pragmatism agency also said it plans to be ready to take on State of Design responsibilities UK WILL LEAVE EASA ON DEC. 31 again, which had previously been dele- > gated to EASA in 2003. > CAA IS BEGINNING RECRUITMENT DRIVE FOR NEW ROLE “As part of our planning, we have already recruited full-time employees in positions across the CAA.” a CAA Tony Osborne London, Bill Carey Washington, Thierry Dubois Lyon spokesman said. “We will continue and Jens Flottau Frankfurt to refine these plans over the coming months, which may ver since Brexit became a pos- to go it alone in just nine BILL CAREY/AW&ST require additional staff, sibility, aerospace has warned months’ time. including in the areas of Ethat remaining a member of The CAA’s public state- State of Design.” the European Union Aviation Safety ments on Brexit, includ- The CAA also con- Agency (EASA) would be critical to ing one on its website, say firmed it has been work- keeping industry competitive and free the “most positive out- ing with the Department of disruption. come” for UK consumers for Transport to incor- However, with the British govern- and the aviation industry porate all current EU ment planning a clean break from would be “continued par- aviation law into UK do- the European regulator at the end of ticipation” in EASA. mestic law “so that there 2020—the end of the Brexit transi- “In our opinion, the will be no immediate tion period—those warnings appear CAA does not have the change to the regulatory to have fallen on deaf ears. expertise required to UK Transport Secretary framework at the end of The UK’s Civil Aviation Authority operate as a world-class Grant Shapps the transition period.” It (CAA) will take over responsibility safety and technical continued: “We will work for aircraft certification and regula- regulator,” said a strongly worded with the government and the industry tion from EASA, British Transport statement from International Airlines on any changes to the framework after Secretary Grant Shapps told Aviation Group (IAG), the owner of UK flag car- this point.” Week editors in Washington on March rier British Airways. The CAA would EASA said it is “well prepared for 7. However, the decision appears to be need “fundamental restructuring from the departure of the UK” because the built on political ideology rather than top to bottom,” IAG said. “There is no agency put measures in place in case the benefits it provides to industry. way that it can be done by Dec. 31.” of a hard Brexit before the withdrawal Like Brexit—which was about set- Shapps also appears to admit the agreement was signed, officials say. tling long-running divisions in the rul- CAA may not be ready straightaway. Since EASA’s formation in 2002, the ing Conservative Party but ultimately “The expertise will need to come home UK has been one of the leading lights in divided a country—a break with EASA to do that, but we’ll do it in a gradual the creation of the organization. Much comes from the British government’s way,” he says. of the agency’s legislation and regula- refusal to accept any role by the Court The CAA confirmed it has made tions have been developed from that of Justice of the European Union (CJEU). The court is the ultimate ar- The UK Civil Aviation Authority last year relocated its headquarters from Central biter of EASA rulings. “We can’t be London to Aviation House (pictured) in Crawley, England, near Gatwick Airport. subject to the rules and laws made by CAA somebody else,” Shapps says. Yet these issues are not a problem for countries such as Norway and Switzerland, both sovereign states that are full EASA members outside the European Union. Giving EASA oversight the chop was always an option for post-Brexit Britain and would have been the de- fault had the UK fallen out of the EU without a deal. But in what appears to be a micro- cosm of Brexit, albeit with stronger support to remain, an EASA exit goes against the advice of Britain’s £36 billion ($46.6 billion) aerospace and defense industry and even the regulator. On top of that, there are questions about whether the CAA will be ready

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Britain’s EASA Exit Decision Is Built “comprehensive plans” to prepare for written by the CAA. But since Brexit assumptions, several aerospace com- tory cooperation between the CAA and a possible departure from EASA. The took place Jan.31, the UK has become panies told Aviation Week. EASA. “The BASA should be in line on Ideology Rather Than Pragmatism agency also said it plans to be ready to a third country in the EASA ranks—in UK-based suppliers producing parts with existing EU precedent for cooper- take on State of Design responsibilities other words, a country outside of the for an EASA-certified aircraft will ative aviation safety arrangements with UK WILL LEAVE EASA ON DEC. 31 again, which had previously been dele- EU member states, making it a rule have to keep their EASA approvals to third countries,” the document states. > gated to EASA in 2003. taker and no longer a rule-maker. produce those parts. CAA approvals Shapps believes the clean break > CAA IS BEGINNING RECRUITMENT DRIVE FOR NEW ROLE “As part of our planning, we have By creating its own regulatory sys- will be an additional cost. “The result from EASA will allow a strengthened already recruited full-time employees tem, the British government will be is just additional red tape,” says Je- CAA to become more forward-looking in positions across the CAA.” a CAA “incurring substantial costs to build up rome Bouchard, aerospace partner at and supportive of technology develop- Tony Osborne London, Bill Carey Washington, Thierry Dubois Lyon spokesman said. “We will continue the capabilities of the CAA to match Oliver Wyman. It remains to be seen ments for electric propulsion and ur- and Jens Flottau Frankfurt to refine these plans over the com- the standards required for recognition whether products delivered in the UK ban air mobility. “We’ll make sure our ing months, which may by EASA and the FAA in the U.S.,” said will need an extra certification. legislative framework is in a great place ver since Brexit became a pos- to go it alone in just nine BILL CAREY/AW&ST require additional staff, Paul Everitt, CEO of the ADS Group, “We hope for a bilateral agreement to enable those kinds of organizations sibility, aerospace has warned months’ time. including in the areas of a UK aerospace, defense, security and that would allow us to deliver our prod- to excel in the UK market,” he says. Ethat remaining a member of The CAA’s public state- State of Design.” space trade association. ADS has been ucts with an EASA or FAA certificate,” “The UK CAA may create relatively the European Union Aviation Safety ments on Brexit, includ- The CAA also con- vocal about the UK maintaining regu- says Muriel Menudier, Safran’s senior flexible rules for the country’s industry Agency (EASA) would be critical to ing one on its website, say firmed it has been work- latory alignment with Europe and had manager of aviation safety and regula- to benefit from,” Bouchard suggests. keeping industry competitive and free the “most positive out- ing with the Department been receiving positive noises from tions. “This will be part of the outcome But the UK’s electric vertical-take- of disruption. come” for UK consumers for Transport to incor- government about continued mem- of the ongoing negotiation [between off-and-landing industry has yet to However, with the British govern- and the aviation industry porate all current EU bership of the agency. the European Commission and the UK prove it is competitive, while the mar- ment planning a clean break from would be “continued par- aviation law into UK do- ADS has previously suggested that government], but the deadline is close.” ket is embryonic, he adds. the European regulator at the end of ticipation” in EASA. mestic law “so that there handing EASA’s responsibilities to the A spokesman for Boeing said: Bouchard also notes that the trend 2020—the end of the Brexit transi- “In our opinion, the will be no immediate CAA could take up to 10 years and cost “Maintaining a high degree of freedom for certification rules is to become tion period—those warnings appear CAA does not have the change to the regulatory up to £40 million annually to create a of movement for aerospace goods and stricter, not more flexible, particularly to have fallen on deaf ears. expertise required to UK Transport Secretary framework at the end of UK safety authority with all the exper- closely aligned regulatory coopera- considering the Boeing 737 MAX crisis. The UK’s Civil Aviation Authority operate as a world-class Grant Shapps the transition period.” It tise of EASA and the FAA, against cur- tion post-Brexit are important to the ADS points out that the companies (CAA) will take over responsibility safety and technical continued: “We will work rent annual UK contributions to the growth and competitiveness of Euro- taking steps toward greener aviation for aircraft certification and regula- regulator,” said a strongly worded with the government and the industry agency of £1-4 million. “[The govern- pean industry and the safety of Euro- “are clear that EASA is the best option tion from EASA, British Transport statement from International Airlines on any changes to the framework after ment] will be gambling that companies pean citizens.” for the UK.” Secretary Grant Shapps told Aviation Group (IAG), the owner of UK flag car- this point.” can absorb the additional costs and So far, the British government has “Participation in EASA has already Week editors in Washington on March rier British Airways. The CAA would EASA said it is “well prepared for complications created by regulatory been careful to skirt the subject of an contributed to ever-improving safety 7. However, the decision appears to be need “fundamental restructuring from the departure of the UK” because the divergence without an impact on their EASA exit since the UK’s EU mem- standards in aviation, given us influ- built on political ideology rather than top to bottom,” IAG said. “There is no agency put measures in place in case future investment in the UK and that bership referendum in June 2016. The ence in one of the two major global the benefits it provides to industry. way that it can be done by Dec. 31.” of a hard Brexit before the withdrawal [the] disruption will have no impact on most recent document about the UK’s regulators and eased access to our Like Brexit—which was about set- Shapps also appears to admit the agreement was signed, officials say. safety,” Everitt warned. approach to negotiating a future rela- export markets—not just in Europe tling long-running divisions in the rul- CAA may not be ready straightaway. Since EASA’s formation in 2002, the Industry has some time to prepare. tionship with Europe calls for the estab- but around the world,” Everitt said. ing Conservative Party but ultimately “The expertise will need to come home UK has been one of the leading lights in Companies that had already prepared lishment of a Bilateral Aviation Safety Leaving EASA, on the other hand, “is a divided a country—a break with EASA to do that, but we’ll do it in a gradual the creation of the organization. Much for a no-deal Brexit during 2019 had Agreement (BASA) that recognizes gamble with much at stake but without comes from the British government’s way,” he says. of the agency’s legislation and regula- an EASA exit in their basic planning aviation safety standards and regula- any clear prize on offer,” he noted.c refusal to accept any role by the Court The CAA confirmed it has made tions have been developed from that of Justice of the European Union (CJEU). The court is the ultimate ar- The UK Civil Aviation Authority last year relocated its headquarters from Central biter of EASA rulings. “We can’t be London to Aviation House (pictured) in Crawley, England, near Gatwick Airport. subject to the rules and laws made by CAA somebody else,” Shapps says. Epic Aircraft proudly uses Toray’s Yet these issues are not a problem 2510 advanced composite prepreg for countries such as Norway and Switzerland, both sovereign states system for its E1000 all carbon that are full EASA members outside the European Union. fiber airframe. Giving EASA oversight the chop was always an option for post-Brexit Britain and would have been the de- fault had the UK fallen out of the EU without a deal. But in what appears to be a micro- cosm of Brexit, albeit with stronger support to remain, an EASA exit goes Materials can change our lives against the advice of Britain’s £36 billion ($46.6 billion) aerospace and de- [email protected] | www.toraycma.com fense industry and even the regulator. www.epicaircraft.com On top of that, there are questions about whether the CAA will be ready

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 29 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

committed in January 2020, along- UK Regions Could Suffer side a time-to-pay arrangement with HM Treasury for APD to the value of From Flybe Failure Fallout £3.8 million. “Sadly, despite the efforts of all > FLYBE STRUGGLED TO COMPETE AGAINST LOW-COST CARRIERS involved to turn the airline around, not least the people of Flybe, the im- REGIONALS STEP INTO ROUTES LEFT OPEN BY FLYBE’S DEMISE > pact of COVID-19 on Flybe’s trading means that the consortium can no Tony Osborne London longer commit to continued financial he finger-pointing has begun leasing costs of the new fleet were support,” Virgin Atlantic said. in the public blame game sur- tugging on the bottom line, and subse- Virgin’s previous plans to use Flybe Trounding the collapse of British quent CEOs—four in seven years—at- for its own regional and feeder serv– regional airline Flybe. tempted to scale the fleet back to a ices for its long-haul flights have now Workers’ unions and air transport more sustainable size. been shelved, but the airline says it will associations have turned their ire on The airline had been praised for “explore options” to connect its ser- the government, blaming ministers linking the British regions, but it had vices with UK regions in due course. for not making reforms to the UK’s also been derided by competitors for Flybe finally halted operations on controversial air passenger duty maintaining loss-making routes, many March 5, leaving its fleet scattered (APD) tax and reneging on financial support it had offered to Europe’s TONY OSBORNE/AW&ST largest regional airline. Officials in the British aviation industry are warning that more airlines could fail, particularly as demand for air travel tails off in the face of the COVID-19 outbreak. Flybe is the fourth British airline to fail in three years. “Right now, there is a strong case for the government to suspend APD for the next six months and make significant reductions in the longer term to help this struggling industry,” said British Airline Pilots Association General Secretary Brian Strutton. The government’s view coincided with that of its shareholders, the Con- Flybe was the largest operator of the De Havilland Dash 8-400. The fleet, nect Airways consortium, that bailing spread across airports all over the UK, is now grounded. out the airline with private or public funds—as the government proposed of which were seasonal and low-yield across the country and administra- in January—would have simply been in nature, and for trying to compete tors to liquidate the business. How- throwing good money after bad. with more efficient low-fare carriers ever, Flybe’s Aviation Services busi- “Unfortunately, in a competitive like EasyJet and Ryanair on pricing. ness is unaffected by the collapse and market, companies do fail, but it is not APD weighed on demand for flights, continues to operate normally. the role of government to prop them too, with the tax immediately adding Of greater concern though is the fall- up,” said British Transport Secretary £26 ($34) for a return domestic journey. out. At a time when the government is Grant Shapps. By contrast, flights into Europe are calling for greater regional connectiv- Although the impact of COVID-19 charged only once, on departure from ity, the loss of Flybe will be sorely felt has been widely blamed for Flybe’s a UK airport. at some of the UK’s regional airports. downfall, it was merely the straw that But even after the Connect Airways Flybe was the monopoly operator broke the camel’s back and just one in consortium—a group made up of UK on many of its 120 routes. The com- a litany of troubles that had plagued long-haul carrier Virgin Atlantic, pany also provided the majority of air the airline for more than a decade. regional aircraft franchise operator services at Southampton, Belfast City Born out of more humble begin- Stobart Air and investment fund and at Exeter airports and around nings—serving the Channel Island manager Cyrus Capital Partners— half of the services to Cardiff in Wales of Jersey—the company undertook a purchased Flybe, the airline contin- and to Jersey and the Isle of Man. rapid expansion, buying a large fleet ued to burn through money. Some airlines have begun stepping of Embraer jets and Bombardier Virgin Atlantic officials said the into the gap left behind. Scottish re- Q400 turboprops before rebranding consortium had invested more than gional Loganair announced it would itself as a full-service, low-fare airline £135 million over 14 months to keep take on several of Flybe’s Scottish to compete with Britain’s railway net- the airline flying, including approxi- routes, and Alderney-based Aurigny work. But it was not long before the mately £25 million of the £30 million Air Services will fly routes from

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION committed in January 2020, along- Guernsey to Exeter and Birmingham. due to COVID-19. Unions fear knock- The UK Treasury confirmed on UK Regions Could Suffer side a time-to-pay arrangement with Meanwhile, Flybe’s franchise op- on effects that could see hundreds of March 11 it would review APD and its From Flybe Failure Fallout HM Treasury for APD to the value of erators, including Blue Islands and airport workers lose their jobs, on top impact on regional air services, con- £3.8 million. Eastern Airways, announced they of the 2,000-strong Flybe workforce firming it plans to issue a consultation in “Sadly, despite the efforts of all were in the process of restoring their already redundant. A lack of services the spring. The government will “con- > FLYBE STRUGGLED TO COMPETE AGAINST LOW-COST CARRIERS involved to turn the airline around, own booking engines—having been could also drive more British region- sider the case” for changing the APD not least the people of Flybe, the im- reliant on Flybe’s systems. al airports out of business, they fear. treatment of domestic flights and look REGIONALS STEP INTO ROUTES LEFT OPEN BY FLYBE’S DEMISE > pact of COVID-19 on Flybe’s trading However, many of the routes are Several have already closed or even at introducing a “return leg exemption” means that the consortium can no likely to go unfulfilled, particularly nationalized in recent years (AW&ST as well as increasing the number of in- Tony Osborne London longer commit to continued financial when air travel demand is shrinking Oct. 27, 2014, p. 37). ternational distances bands. c he finger-pointing has begun leasing costs of the new fleet were support,” Virgin Atlantic said. in the public blame game sur- tugging on the bottom line, and subse- Virgin’s previous plans to use Flybe Trounding the collapse of British quent CEOs—four in seven years—at- for its own regional and feeder serv– regional airline Flybe. tempted to scale the fleet back to a ices for its long-haul flights have now Europe’s LCCs Embark says the low-cost carrier (LCC) sphere Workers’ unions and air transport more sustainable size. been shelved, but the airline says it will is underdeveloped compared with Eu- associations have turned their ire on The airline had been praised for “explore options” to connect its ser- On New Partnerships rope. “We have a business model that the government, blaming ministers linking the British regions, but it had vices with UK regions in due course. stimulates the market, and we will for not making reforms to the UK’s also been derided by competitors for Flybe finally halted operations on > WIZZ AIR’S ABU DHABI JOINT VENTURE IS SEEKING AN AOC take that model and our lower costs controversial air passenger duty maintaining loss-making routes, many March 5, leaving its fleet scattered to Abu Dhabi,” Varadi said. (APD) tax and reneging on financial MIDDLE EAST ENTRY MAKES SENSE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN “Wizz Air has achieved success by

TONY OSBORNE/AW&ST > support it had offered to Europe’s EUROPEAN-FOCUSED WIZZ AIR consolidating its business around Cen- largest regional airline. tral and Eastern Europe and by dom- Officials in the British aviation in- Helen Massy-Beresford Brussels inating routes between second cities dustry are warning that more airlines that are not tourist hot spots,” says could fail, particularly as demand for urope’s low-cost carriers have to the benefit of growing Abu Dhabi’s Ralph Hollister, travel and tourism air travel tails off in the face of the been faring better than their touristic and economic diversity.” analyst at data and analysis platform COVID-19 outbreak. Elegacy counterparts, enjoying The airline believes Wizz Air Abu GlobalData. “Wizz Air’s new partner- Flybe is the fourth British airline to strong growth in recent years, but Dhabi’s fleet could number 50 within a ship is another example of this broad fail in three years. they cannot rest on their laurels. decade, flying 15-20 million passengers strategy of differentiation.” “Right now, there is a strong case Wizz Air’s move to launch a joint per year. Routes will initially focus on The Abu Dhabi joint venture pro- for the government to suspend venture in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Central and Eastern Europe before vides Wizz Air with a vast new source APD for the next six months and make Emirates, underlines the innovative branching out to Middle Eastern, market “whilst its European compet- significant reductions in the longer strategies budget carriers are adopt- Asian and African destinations. itors will still be operating in markets term to help this struggling industry,” ing to keep thriving in an ever-more Wizz Air also foresees a market po- much closer to reaching maturity,” said British Airline Pilots Association difficult aviation market. tential of 5 billion passengers within Hollister says. General Secretary Brian Strutton. Having rapidly expanded its Airbus eight flying hours of Abu Dhabi, and Before the full extent of the The government’s view coincided A320-family fleet and route net- COVID-19 crisis was starting to be- with that of its shareholders, the Con- Flybe was the largest operator of the De Havilland Dash 8-400. The fleet, work in recent years, Budapest, come apparent, GlobalData forecast nect Airways consortium, that bailing spread across airports all over the UK, is now grounded. Hungary-based Wizz Air is now that outbound flights from the UAE out the airline with private or public poised for more growth beyond would reach 3 million by 2023, grow- funds—as the government proposed of which were seasonal and low-yield across the country and administra- its Central and Eastern European ing at a compound annual growth rate in January—would have simply been in nature, and for trying to compete tors to liquidate the business. How- heartlands and is in the process of of 3.1% between 2019 and 2023. throwing good money after bad. with more efficient low-fare carriers ever, Flybe’s Aviation Services busi- obtaining an air operator’s cer- However, Wizz Air’s push into “Unfortunately, in a competitive like EasyJet and Ryanair on pricing. ness is unaffected by the collapse and tificate (AOC) for Wizz Air Abu new territory will not be unchal- market, companies do fail, but it is not APD weighed on demand for flights, continues to operate normally. Dhabi, set up through a joint ven- lenged; Etihad Airways and Air Arabia the role of government to prop them too, with the tax immediately adding Of greater concern though is the fall- ture with Abu Dhabi-based holding are also in the process of establishing up,” said British Transport Secretary £26 ($34) for a return domestic journey. out. At a time when the government is company PJSC. their own LCC, which is set to begin Grant Shapps. By contrast, flights into Europe are calling for greater regional connectiv- Operations are set to launch this operating in the coming months and Although the impact of COVID-19 charged only once, on departure from ity, the loss of Flybe will be sorely felt autumn, and recruitment will begin is also hoping to capitalize on growing has been widely blamed for Flybe’s a UK airport. at some of the UK’s regional airports. in the coming months. tourism in the region. Wizz Air is looking downfall, it was merely the straw that But even after the Connect Airways Flybe was the monopoly operator Describing the move as an “import- John Strickland, director of JLS broke the camel’s back and just one in consortium—a group made up of UK on many of its 120 routes. The com- ant milestone,” Wizz Air CEO Jozsef east for growth. Consulting, sees Wizz Air’s Abu Dhabi a litany of troubles that had plagued long-haul carrier Virgin Atlantic, pany also provided the majority of air Varadi said on March 3: “Wizz Air’s move as a reflection of the emirate’s the airline for more than a decade. regional aircraft franchise operator services at Southampton, Belfast City mission feeds into Abu Dhabi’s diver- strategic wish to boost point-to-point Born out of more humble begin- Stobart Air and investment fund and at Exeter airports and around sified economic strategy, as we aim to tourism traffic and provide feeder traffic nings—serving the Channel Island manager Cyrus Capital Partners— half of the services to Cardiff in Wales stimulate traffic by creating demand for Etihad Airways’ long-haul services. of Jersey—the company undertook a purchased Flybe, the airline contin- and to Jersey and the Isle of Man. rapid expansion, buying a large fleet ued to burn through money. Some airlines have begun stepping of Embraer jets and Bombardier Virgin Atlantic officials said the into the gap left behind. Scottish re- Q400 turboprops before rebranding consortium had invested more than gional Loganair announced it would itself as a full-service, low-fare airline £135 million over 14 months to keep take on several of Flybe’s Scottish to compete with Britain’s railway net- the airline flying, including approxi- routes, and Alderney-based Aurigny AIRBUS work. But it was not long before the mately £25 million of the £30 million Air Services will fly routes from

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 31 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

The venture makes sense for Wizz necting platform, EasyJet Worldwide, more brands to its portfolio? It seems Air, too, he says, especially given the which the British airline launched in unlikely at the moment. large quantity of aircraft the LCC still 2017. EasyJet initially partnered with Strickland does not believe mak- has on order. “It gives Wizz Air some- Norwegian Air Shuttle and WestJet to ing a move for either of the industry’s where to place a number of the Airbus begin connecting flights to long-haul most recent casualties would make A321LRs due to arrive in the fleet in services and enable passengers to buy sense for Ryanair: Flybe’s fleet of the next few years,” Strickland says. other carriers’ flights on the Easy- small Bombardier Dash 8 Q400 and “They know they can generate traffic Jet website. Cathay Pacific Airways, Embraer 175 aircraft and regional on these kind of routes because they Emirates, Corsair and China Airlines routes would add more complexity have already done it on routes to Dubai. are now also among the partners. than anything else. And it builds on Wizz Air’s strength Europe’s biggest LCC, Ryanair, has As for Air Italy, “Ryanair is already in Central and Eastern Europe, where looked beyond the LCC model, transi- the biggest airline in Italy through it understands the market drivers. It tioning into a holding structure made organic growth and would not be in- should be able to attract price-sensi- up of four airlines—Ryanair DAC, terested in Air Italy’s long-haul activ- tive travelers looking to connect from Buzz, Laudamotion and Malta Air, the ities,” Strickland says. “Why would Abu Dhabi on to all points east.” startup it bought in June 2019. they need to add complexity instead It is increasingly important for LCCs Ryanair said at the time that Malta of continuing to grow organically?” such as Wizz Air to maintain focus on Air would start operating with six air- Ryanair still has its work cut out routes and partnerships that are not craft in the summer of 2020, growing with Laudamotion—more than a year yet dominated by Ryanair or EasyJet, the fleet to 10 within three years and after its acquisition—and that should in order to differentiate in a highly serving destinations across Europe serve as a cautionary tale for the air- competitive industry, Hollister adds. and North Africa. line, Strickland believes. “Lauda has Wizz Air is not the only LCC that The airline has said more consol- been a substantial loss-maker,” he says. has been shaking up the business idation is an inevitable consequence “If another airline without Ryanair’s model in a bid to drive growth. Easy- of the COVID-19 crisis—as an al - cash resources had made that move, Jet has opted to team up with other ready tough operating environment it may have dragged them down.” c airlines, both legacy carriers and long- gets tougher and airline collapses haul LCC counterparts, through a con- mount—but will Ryanair look to add —With Kurt Hofmann in Vienna

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Quantifying ADS-B ‘In’ Benefits Now that the FAA requires all aircraft to signal their position by ADS-B Out, American Airlines pilots will be > ACSS CERTIFIES ADS-B IN SYSTEM ON A321 able to test one of the first planned ADS-B In applications—cockpit dis- > EVALUATION STARTS WITH FIRST AIRCRAFT play of traffic information-assisted visual separations (CAVS)—using other Bill Carey Washington carriers’ aircraft as reference targets. A visual approach procedure, CAVS echnology early-adopter Amer- ed TCAS, terrain awareness warning allows pilots to maintain separation ican Airlines, avionics supplier system (TAWS) and Mode S transpon- from other aircraft during challenging TACSS and the FAA will gather der with ADS-B In/Out capability—is visual conditions by showing the differ- data and report on the benefits of auto- fitted on the 100 new A321neos Airbus ential ground speed between a lead and matic dependent surveillance-broad- is delivering to American Airlines. own-ship aircraft on the AGD. cast (ADS-B) In applications to the Originally as US Airways, with which “They don’t have to follow another wider industry. it merged in 2013, American Airlines American A321 to perform the opera- Under a memorandum of agree - has worked with ACSS for nearly a tion—they can follow Southwest, Delta, ment signed in 2016, the parties are decade to achieve ADS-B In capability. whoever,” Manberg says. “ADS-B Out is collaborating on the ADS-B In Retrofit The airline completed certifica- a rich operation now, so there is a lot of Spacing (AIRS) evaluation to demon- tion flight tests of SafeRoute+ on the opportunity to be able to perform those strate the “operational feasibility” of A321 on Oct. 27, 2019, at Phoenix Sky operations. And we’ll be gathering data as a part of that.” Other ADS-B In applications that ACSS will be demonstrated during the evaluation are Enhanced Airborne Traf- fic Situational Awareness—which is

A CAVS approach is visible on the ADS-B Guidance Display. used from takeoff to landing to display surrounding airborne traffic relative to own-ship position—and interval management (IM), which helps pilots maintain time-based spacing. The use of IM supports both airline block-time predictability and FAA ground-delay program planning to manage demand at arrival airports. displaying and exploiting aircraft tar- Harbor International Airport (PHX) It will be evaluated within airspace gets produced by ADS-B Out broad- in Arizona. managed by the FAA’s Albuquerque casts on the flight deck using an ACSS Late last year, the FAA granted Tech- air route traffic control center for two retrofit avionics system. nical Standard Order-C195b authoriza- westbound flights approaching PHX. American Airlines started installing tion of the SafeRoute+ software and AGD SafeRoute+ is not the first opera- the ACSS SafeRoute+ system on its and issued a supplemental type certif- tional ADS-B In system. Airbus pre- fleet of Airbus A321s in January; it plans icate to install the system on the A321. viously certified an Airborne Traffic to equip 319 of the narrowbody airliners The AIRS partners are “actively Situational Awareness (ATSAW) sys- over the next 4-5 years. ACSS says it is capturing data” from the first equipped tem on its A320, A330 and A350 types also working with a second U.S. carrier A321, a retrofit of the aircraft used that provides ADS-B In functionality that plans a smaller-scale evaluation of for the certification flight tests, says using TCAS processors from ACSS, the retrofit ADS-B In system. Chuck Manberg, ACSS’ lead ADS-B Honeywell and Collins Aerospace. SafeRoute+ is a software upgrade to engineer. Plans call for producing an ATSAW is offered as a line-fit option or an aircraft’s traffic alert and collision initial report on ADS-B In operational through service bulletins for retrofit. avoidance system (TCAS 3000SP) benefits in 2021, after more aircraft Airbus reports that 229 A320s have or T3CAS surveillance processor have joined the evaluation. been delivered with the ATSAW func- that avoids panel modifications on “This is a large-scale demonstration selected as a line-fit option since the flight deck by using the existing tion effort to be able to quantify those the system was certified in 2010 plus multifunction control and display unit benefits,” Manberg says. “More than another 80 A330s after ATSAW was and primary flight displays with the likely, we will extend the contract as certified on that type in 2010. addition of a small ADS-B Guidance well. There are other opportunities The manufacturer has also deliv- Display (AGD) in place of a mechani- that we’re pursuing, where we might ered 155 ATSAW-equipped A350s cal standby instrument. be able to quantify even more benefits since the newer widebody airliner en- The T3CAS system—an integrat- of the technology for the industry.” tered service in 2015. c

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 33 BUSINESS

Lockheed Signals Change any revolutionary change as a result of this appointment.” Cowen analysts also noted that St. John’s appointment as Is Coming With New CEO COO further bookends Taiclet with experienced Lockheed managers. St. John, 53, joined Lockheed more than 30 years > NEW LEADER CHOSEN FROM OUTSIDE ago and as COO is naturally positioned as a potential future THE COMPANY’S RANKS CEO, analysts say. Taiclet is currently chairman, president and CEO of > ANALYSTS SAY CEO-DESIGNATE MAY MEAN American Tower, a real estate investment holding company MORE COMMERCIAL WORK and owner/operator of wireless and broadband communications networks, where he has held the executive reins Michael Bruno Washington since 2003. He joined that company in 2001 and, according to Lockheed, is credited with guiding American Tower’s ockheed Martin Chairman, CEO and President Marillyn transformation from a U.S.-centric focus to a multination- Hewson became the prime example of how to stumble al business outlook. Analysts said he also was central in Linto the corner office of the Pentagon’s top contractor leading mergers and acquisitions as part of the company’s and still provide laudable business results. Now, as she hands expansion. American Tower announced an immediate re- off the reins to an enigmatic successor, Lockheed stakehold- placement for Taiclet but said he will remain chairman and ers hope the uncertainty ahead will be just as lucrative. an advisor through June 14. On March 16, the Bethesda, Maryland-based prime—the Taiclet previously served as president of Honeywell largest contractor to the U.S. Defense Department by annu- Aerospace Services and before that was vice president for

al sales—surprised many followers LOCKHEED MARTIN PHOTOS engine services at Pratt & Whit- with the news that current Lock- ney of United Technologies (UTC). heed board member James “Jim” He also worked as a consultant at Taiclet, Jr. will become CEO and McKinsey & Co., specializing in president on June 15, while Hew- telecommunications and aero- son becomes executive chairman. space strategy and operations. He Lockheed also promoted Frank is a retired U.S. Air Force pilot and St. John, current executive vice Persian Gulf War veteran. president of the company’s Rotary Loren Thompson, a Lexington and Mission Systems (RMS) di- Institute consultant to Lockheed, vision, to become chief operating says Hewson’s selection of Taiclet officer (COO)—a role that Hewson seems calculated to continue her technically held last, and briefly, emphasis on tight financial man- before her January 2013 appoint- agement and good customer rela- ment as chief executive. Before Chairman, CEO and President Marillyn Hewson tions while positioning the lead- that, the COO role was mostly will become executive chairman only starting ing prime for a changing demand held by Chris Kubasik prior to his June 15, when James “Jim” Taiclet, Jr. will environment. downfall at Lockheed. Stephanie become the new CEO and president. “That environment will be char- Hill, now senior vice president for acterized by two shifts from previ- enterprise business transformation, was appointed to suc- ous years,” Thompson writes. “First, the defense budget will ceed St. John as executive vice president for RMS. These enter a flat to declining period very different from the spend- appointments also are effective June 15. ing increases of the early Trump [administration] years. Hewson is 66 years old and Taiclet is 59. The company, Second, the preference of military customers for nontradi- which does not have a retirement rule, had not announced tional suppliers who think like entrepreneurial enterprises a formal transition plan or successor process. Neverthe- rather than government contractors will continue to grow.” less, industry insiders were watching movements—such as Hewson’s selection of Taiclet also is telling because she St. John’s rise and recent board appointments—and ana- has won the respect of many industry insiders, analysts and lysts said they assume the transition was planned before advisers. While unplanned, Hewson’s tenure as CEO was the ongoing COVID-19 crisis erupted. deemed successful by most. While the announcement was a surprise, the timing was “Hewson’s tenure is known for operational execution with not—due to Hewson’s age and the fact that Lockheed ended such programs as the F-35, while having a successful over- 2019 with a record $144 billion backlog of work and a stock sight in maintaining key businesses—such as in the evolving price that has more than tripled under Hewson, including area of space with wins such as Next-Gen OPIR and GPS the recent COVID-19-related pullback. Still, many observers IIIF,” say Jefferies analysts. Company sales grew at a 5% are intrigued by the selection. compound annual growth rate from $45.4 billion in 2013 to “While Marillyn’s retirement has been in the cards for an expected $63.3 billion this year. a while, we were not expecting Lockheed to go outside Taiclet’s takeover sounds to many like more of the same— the company for its new CEO,” say analysts at Vertical but different. “This is the first time Lockheed Martin has Research Partners. “Taiclet has an impressive pedigree promoted someone who did not rise through the corporation based on his resume, but from an A&D perspective, he to be president and CEO,” writes Capital Alpha Partners is an unknown quantity. . . . But with Marillyn sticking analyst Byron Callan. “We find it intriguing that he has a around as chairman, and a very experienced cohort of se- commercial background and wonder if that’s not a different nior Lockheed managers, we are not expecting there to be direction the company starts to explore in 2020-25.” c

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST BUSINESS

Lockheed Signals Change any revolutionary change as a result of this appointment.” Cowen analysts also noted that St. John’s appointment as Is Coming With New CEO COO further bookends Taiclet with experienced Lockheed managers. St. John, 53, joined Lockheed more than 30 years > NEW LEADER CHOSEN FROM OUTSIDE ago and as COO is naturally positioned as a potential future THE COMPANY’S RANKS CEO, analysts say. Taiclet is currently chairman, president and CEO of > ANALYSTS SAY CEO-DESIGNATE MAY MEAN American Tower, a real estate investment holding company MORE COMMERCIAL WORK and owner/operator of wireless and broadband communications networks, where he has held the executive reins Michael Bruno Washington since 2003. He joined that company in 2001 and, according to Lockheed, is credited with guiding American Tower’s ockheed Martin Chairman, CEO and President Marillyn transformation from a U.S.-centric focus to a multination- Hewson became the prime example of how to stumble al business outlook. Analysts said he also was central in Aftermarket Opportunities Linto the corner office of the Pentagon’s top contractor leading mergers and acquisitions as part of the company’s and still provide laudable business results. Now, as she hands expansion. American Tower announced an immediate re- off the reins to an enigmatic successor, Lockheed stakehold- placement for Taiclet but said he will remain chairman and at Your Fingertips ers hope the uncertainty ahead will be just as lucrative. an advisor through June 14. On March 16, the Bethesda, Maryland-based prime—the Taiclet previously served as president of Honeywell largest contractor to the U.S. Defense Department by annu- Aerospace Services and before that was vice president for

al sales—surprised many followers LOCKHEED MARTIN PHOTOS engine services at Pratt & Whit- with the news that current Lock- ney of United Technologies (UTC). heed board member James “Jim” He also worked as a consultant at Taiclet, Jr. will become CEO and McKinsey & Co., specializing in MRO Prospector provides in-depth details and reliable president on June 15, while Hew- telecommunications and aero- son becomes executive chairman. space strategy and operations. He data that enables subscribers to locate new business Lockheed also promoted Frank is a retired U.S. Air Force pilot and St. John, current executive vice Persian Gulf War veteran. opportunities ﬁ rst: president of the company’s Rotary Loren Thompson, a Lexington and Mission Systems (RMS) di- Institute consultant to Lockheed, vision, to become chief operating says Hewson’s selection of Taiclet Insight into airframe, engine and landing gear opportunities officer (COO)—a role that Hewson seems calculated to continue her technically held last, and briefly, emphasis on tight financial man- going out 1, 2 and 3 years before her January 2013 appoint- agement and good customer rela- ment as chief executive. Before Chairman, CEO and President Marillyn Hewson tions while positioning the lead- that, the COO role was mostly will become executive chairman only starting ing prime for a changing demand Details on the work being done by global MRO providers held by Chris Kubasik prior to his June 15, when James “Jim” Taiclet, Jr. will environment. downfall at Lockheed. Stephanie become the new CEO and president. “That environment will be char- Hill, now senior vice president for acterized by two shifts from previ- A continually growing contracts database enterprise business transformation, was appointed to suc- ous years,” Thompson writes. “First, the defense budget will ceed St. John as executive vice president for RMS. These enter a flat to declining period very different from the spend- appointments also are effective June 15. ing increases of the early Trump [administration] years. Hewson is 66 years old and Taiclet is 59. The company, Second, the preference of military customers for nontradi- which does not have a retirement rule, had not announced tional suppliers who think like entrepreneurial enterprises MRO Prospector has a fresh new website a formal transition plan or successor process. Neverthe- rather than government contractors will continue to grow.” less, industry insiders were watching movements—such as Hewson’s selection of Taiclet also is telling because she with MORE MRO data and intelligence. St. John’s rise and recent board appointments—and ana- has won the respect of many industry insiders, analysts and lysts said they assume the transition was planned before advisers. While unplanned, Hewson’s tenure as CEO was the ongoing COVID-19 crisis erupted. deemed successful by most. While the announcement was a surprise, the timing was “Hewson’s tenure is known for operational execution with Visit aviationweek.com/mrop to schedule your demo. not—due to Hewson’s age and the fact that Lockheed ended such programs as the F-35, while having a successful over- 2019 with a record $144 billion backlog of work and a stock sight in maintaining key businesses—such as in the evolving price that has more than tripled under Hewson, including area of space with wins such as Next-Gen OPIR and GPS the recent COVID-19-related pullback. Still, many observers IIIF,” say Jefferies analysts. Company sales grew at a 5% are intrigued by the selection. compound annual growth rate from $45.4 billion in 2013 to “While Marillyn’s retirement has been in the cards for an expected $63.3 billion this year. a while, we were not expecting Lockheed to go outside Taiclet’s takeover sounds to many like more of the same— the company for its new CEO,” say analysts at Vertical but different. “This is the first time Lockheed Martin has Research Partners. “Taiclet has an impressive pedigree promoted someone who did not rise through the corporation Call 866.857.0148 (within N. America) based on his resume, but from an A&D perspective, he to be president and CEO,” writes Capital Alpha Partners is an unknown quantity. . . . But with Marillyn sticking analyst Byron Callan. “We find it intriguing that he has a +1.847.763.9147, or go to around as chairman, and a very experienced cohort of se- commercial background and wonder if that’s not a different pgs.aviationweek.com/MROP nior Lockheed managers, we are not expecting there to be direction the company starts to explore in 2020-25.” c

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE> MDA’s faster schedule p. 38 New USAF ‘engine war’ p. 41 USMC’s UAS plans p. 42 U.S. Army helos p. 43 South Korean stealth drone p. 44 UK post-Brexit defense review p.46 T-X REDUX > M346 BIDDER DISPUTES T50 DECISION

> RADAR REQUIREMENT TILTS THE ACC TO T50

> ACC SEEKING TO REVAMP USAF PILOT TRAINING

Steve Trimble Washington As a result, the ACC quietly opened wo advanced jet trainers—Korea Aerospace Indus- discussions last May with two compet- ing private companies that now rep- tries/Lockheed Martin’s T-50 and Leonardo’s M-346— resent the T-50 and M-346 to select a dueled for decades for a chance to replace the U.S. bidder for the RFX. Air Force’s T-38 fl eet, only to lose to the Boeing/Saab Hillwood Aviation, a Perot compa- T ny, proposed T-50s to the ACC for the team’s upstart and recently branded T-7A. RFX contract. Mission System Solu- tions (MSS), an aerospace engineer- The T-X competition ended 18 Northrop T-38 fl eet but also to revamp ing services fi rm, o ered M-346s. months ago, but a quietly heated an 80-year-old pilot-training system From the beginning, the Air Force’s competition between the T-50 and that he says produces too few pilots requirements strongly favored the the M-346 to land a new Air Force and emphasizes the wrong skills. T-50. The initial request for infor- contract called the “RFX” continues. Last year, Holmes unveiled an mation (RFI) for the RFX released To be sure, the Boeing/Saab team’s ACC-led plan to reshape the pipe- last May included a requirement for grip on the $9.2 billion T-X contract line for fighter and bomber pilots. supersonic speed, which is a highly remains safe. The Air Force is still His “Project Reforge” with the RFX, touted feature of the T-50 but elimi- counting on Boeing to deliver poten- originally published on the War on nates the subsonic M-346. tially 351 T-7As, with the fi rst aircraft the Rocks online publication, propos- The ACC released the fi rst request and simulator scheduled to be deliv- es to eliminate Formal Training Units for information about the RFX ser- ered to Joint Base San Antonio-Ran- and mix advanced jet trainers such vices contract in May 2019, but Ar- dolph, Texas, in 2023. as the T-7A with frontline fi ghters in lington, Texas-based MSS was initially Before the T-7A can arrive, how- operational squadrons. unaware of the proposal, says MSS ever, head of Air Combat Command But fi rst Holmes wants to validate CEO David Nichols. (ACC) Gen. Mike Holmes has defi ned that his ideas work. By renting fl ight MSS had played a key role in the a requirement for the RFX: It would time on advanced jet trainers avail- Leonardo team’s bid for the M-346- consist of access to 4-8 advanced jet able now, rather than waiting for derived T-100 bid for the T-X con- trainers, each rented annually for T-7As after 2023, Holmes wants the tract, providing aircraft engineering about 4,500 fl ight hours over a fi ve- ACC to be ready for a dramatic shift services during the lengthy source year period. in training practices as the Boeing/ selection process. Following Boeing’s In an ironic twist, as a result of the Saab aircraft come into service. Thus, loss in the competition, MSS moved to RFX, one of the two losing aircraft Holmes’ timeline rules out using the secure access to at least four “white- for the T-X contract could play a T-7A for the validation phase. Boeing tail” M-346s produced by Leonardo pivotal role in transforming how the has produced only two industry-fund- without a customer. In May 2019, MSS Air Force uses and bases the future ed prototypes, and both are needed then proposed to o er those M-346s T-7A fl eet. to support the T-7A development to the Air Education and Training Holmes says the T-7A’s modern ca- program, which is scheduled to end Command (AETC) as a stopgap to pabilities o er a generational chance at the initial operational capability cover a shortfall of T-38s until the not just to replace the 60-year-old milestone in 2024. T-7A became available, Nichols says.

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE> MDA’s faster schedule p. 38 New USAF ‘engine war’ p. 41 USMC’s UAS plans p. 42 U.S. Army helos p. 43 South Korean stealth drone p. 44 UK post-Brexit defense review p.46

M-346 variant provides advanced dis- The ACC notified industry of the M-346s carry the same Elbit Systems plays and training systems needed for decision to award a sole-source con- the RFX but does not have an active tract to Hillwood Aviation in January embedded training technology that radar at this time, and the timeline but has taken no further action since will be installed on Boeing’s T-7A eet, for incorporating one was unknown. then. In the interim, MSS has intensi- and MSS believes that should make Therefore, only the T-50 meets the fi ed its e orts to reverse the decision, T-X REDUX a requirement for active basic requirements for the RFX,” enlisting congressional supporters to sensors on RFX redundant. an ACC spokesperson explained to lobby the ACC and launching a media Aviation Week. campaign focused on advertising the > M346 BIDDER DISPUTES T50 DECISION A representative for Hillwood Avi- capabilities of the M-346 for the RFX ation declined to comment. requirement, Nichols says. The ACC notifi ed industry in Jan- In order to win the award, MSS is > RADAR REQUIREMENT uary that it intends to award a sole- seeking to pressure the ACC to drop TILTS THE ACC TO T50 source contract to Hillwood Aviation’s the requirement for an active radar T-50s for the RFX requirement. in the RFX fleet. In Nichols’ view, The late addition of the radar re- the radar is unnecessary because > ACC SEEKING TO REVAMP quirement for the RFX surprised and the M-346’s embedded training sys- ba ed MSS, Nichols says. tem is designed to emulate all of the USAF PILOT TRAINING “The radar was just an attempt sensors, including radars, on the Air to justify a sole-source award to the Force’s fleet of operational fighters. T-50—that’s the way it appeared,” MSS’ proposed M-346 aircraft comes Nichols says. “[It was] the fact that equipped with Elbit’s embedded train- they never talked to us to say, ‘Do you ing system, which Boeing also selected Steve Trimble Washington MISSION SPPORT SSTEMS guys have a radar?’” for the T-7A, Nichols says. As a result, the ACC quietly opened It was during a presentation about the Although the ACC says the radar MSS’ proposal is based on an agree- wo advanced jet trainers—Korea Aerospace Indus- discussions last May with two compet- stopgap proposal to AETC that MSS integration schedule for the M-346 ment with a third-party financier, ing private companies that now rep- fi rst learned about the ACC’s RFI for is “unknown,” Nichols says that MSS which will acquire the white-tails and tries/Lockheed Martin’s T-50 and Leonardo’s M-346— resent the T-50 and M-346 to select a the RFX, Nichols says. offered to provide Grifo-equipped provide them to MSS for the RFX, dueled for decades for a chance to replace the U.S. bidder for the RFX. After MSS proposed the M-346, M-346s for the RFX within 12 months Nichols says. He declined to identify Air Force’s T-38 fl eet, only to lose to the Boeing/Saab Hillwood Aviation, a Perot compa- the ACC’s requirements changed. The of contract signing. the fi nancier. Once the fi ve-year vali- T ny, proposed T-50s to the ACC for the ACC dropped the requirement for a Nichols, an industry participant dation project is completed, MSS has team’s upstart and recently branded T-7A. RFX contract. Mission System Solu- supersonic aircraft, calling instead for in the Air Force’s search for a T-38 an agreement with another operator

tions (MSS), an aerospace engineer- an aircraft that can achieve a closing S AIR ORCE The T-X competition ended 18 Northrop T-38 fl eet but also to revamp ing services fi rm, o ered M-346s. speed with another of the same type Some of South Korea’s T-50s are already equipped with radars, months ago, but a quietly heated an 80-year-old pilot-training system From the beginning, the Air Force’s of aircraft at 1,100 kt. Two M-346s making them the Air Combat Command’s preferred candidate competition between the T-50 and that he says produces too few pilots requirements strongly favored the can achieve a closing speed of 1,400 the M-346 to land a new Air Force and emphasizes the wrong skills. T-50. The initial request for infor- kt., Nichols says, so subsonic speed for the RFX contract. contract called the “RFX” continues. Last year, Holmes unveiled an mation (RFI) for the RFX released was no longer a disqualifying factor To be sure, the Boeing/Saab team’s ACC-led plan to reshape the pipe- last May included a requirement for for the ACC. grip on the $9.2 billion T-X contract line for fighter and bomber pilots. supersonic speed, which is a highly But the ACC later added a new re- remains safe. The Air Force is still His “Project Reforge” with the RFX, touted feature of the T-50 but elimi- quirement: The RFX aircraft must be counting on Boeing to deliver poten- originally published on the War on nates the subsonic M-346. ready to carry a radar. South Korea tially 351 T-7As, with the fi rst aircraft the Rocks online publication, propos- The ACC released the fi rst request operates a version of the T-50 with the and simulator scheduled to be deliv- es to eliminate Formal Training Units for information about the RFX ser- Israel Aerospace Industries EL/M- ered to Joint Base San Antonio-Ran- and mix advanced jet trainers such vices contract in May 2019, but Ar- 2022 radar, so that aircraft remains dolph, Texas, in 2023. as the T-7A with frontline fi ghters in lington, Texas-based MSS was initially eligible for Project Reforge. Leonar- Before the T-7A can arrive, how- operational squadrons. unaware of the proposal, says MSS do is still in the process of qualifying ever, head of Air Combat Command But fi rst Holmes wants to validate CEO David Nichols. its Grifo radar on the M-346, Nichols (ACC) Gen. Mike Holmes has defi ned that his ideas work. By renting fl ight MSS had played a key role in the says. But the radar integration for the a requirement for the RFX: It would time on advanced jet trainers avail- Leonardo team’s bid for the M-346- M-346FA requires engineering chang- consist of access to 4-8 advanced jet able now, rather than waiting for derived T-100 bid for the T-X con- es that are not retrofittable to the trainers, each rented annually for T-7As after 2023, Holmes wants the tract, providing aircraft engineering white-tail aircraft available to MSS, about 4,500 fl ight hours over a fi ve- ACC to be ready for a dramatic shift services during the lengthy source Nichols says. replacement for a decade, suspects to continue using the aircraft, Nichols year period. in training practices as the Boeing/ selection process. Following Boeing’s Based on the radar requirement, the original supersonic requirement says. The aircraft can provide a broad In an ironic twist, as a result of the Saab aircraft come into service. Thus, loss in the competition, MSS moved to the ACC decided in January to dis- for the RFX speaks to an internal de- range of services, including advanced RFX, one of the two losing aircraft Holmes’ timeline rules out using the secure access to at least four “white- qualify all other aircraft except the sire within pockets of the ACC for a pilot training and adversary air con- for the T-X contract could play a T-7A for the validation phase. Boeing tail” M-346s produced by Leonardo T-50s offered by Hillwood Aviation, trainer with greater speed than the tract services, he says. pivotal role in transforming how the has produced only two industry-fund- without a customer. In May 2019, MSS whose chairman is Michael Moseley, M-346 o ers. “We believe that there’s a market” Air Force uses and bases the future ed prototypes, and both are needed then proposed to o er those M-346s former head of the ACC and Air Force “You still have factions within for the M-346 white-tails, Nichols says. T-7A fl eet. to support the T-7A development to the Air Education and Training chief of sta . the Air Force that are looking for a “Whether it is doing pilot training, [ad- Holmes says the T-7A’s modern ca- program, which is scheduled to end Command (AETC) as a stopgap to “The T-50 provides the advanced high-performance aircraft for a train- versary] air or supporting internation- pabilities o er a generational chance at the initial operational capability cover a shortfall of T-38s until the displays, training systems and ac- er aircraft, and the T-50 scratches al air forces, we will fi nd a way to keep not just to replace the 60-year-old milestone in 2024. T-7A became available, Nichols says. tive radar needed for the RFX. The that itch,” Nichols says. our service going here in the States.” c

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 3 DEFENSE

> AIR FORCE WILL CONSIDER UAS As USAF Fleet Plans Evolve, Can TO REPLACE SOME F-16s the F-35A Program Survive Intact? > ACC SETS 60% GOAL FOR FIFTH-GEN MIX IN FIGHTER FLEET

Steve Trimble Washington CYNTHIA GRIGGS/U.S. AIR FORCE

riginal estimates for costs, Barring a significant increase The U.S. Air Force’s unbroken com- schedules and quantities of in the Air Force’s authorized force mitment to buy 1,763 F-35As through Othe Lockheed Martin F-35 structure, both statements appear the mid-2040s appears threatened upon contract award in October 2001 to jeopardize the mathematical pos- by new interest in low-cost UAS and proved highly unreliable over the sibility for the F-35A to achieve the fighter program’s nearly two-decade full program of record. fourth-generation fighters life span, but one critical number did As fleet acquisition plans stand today, not: 1,763. the F-35A program of record appears The head of the Air Force’s F-35 In- That four-digit figure represents sound. Lockheed has delivered at least tegration Office acknowledges the -nu program of record quantity for the 224 F-35As to the Air Force so far. The merical disparity implied by Holmes’ U.S. Air Force—the F-35’s largest cus- public program of record calls for the statements, but he stands by the F-35 tomer by far—accounting for more F-35A to replace A-10s and F-16s, which original program of record. than half of all projected orders by currently number 281 and 1,037, respec- “The program of record for this air- U.S. and international customers. The tively, according to Aviation Week and craft is really long,” Brig. Gen. David Navy and Marine Corps, the second- Air Force databases. In 2010, Lockheed Abba said on March 9, referring to the and third-largest buyers of the combat and F-35 Joint Program Office officials Air Force’s plans to continue F-35A aircraft, respectively, downsized their also confirmed that the F-35 would re- production into the mid-2040s. “I unplanned F-35 fleet by 400 aircraft in place the F-15E fleet after 2035, which derstand that’s a natural question to 2004. But the Air Force’s quantity currently numbers 228 aircraft. Adding ask, but I don’t think anybody’s ready never budged. the number of F-35As already deliv- to make that sort of a declaration.” Although the Air Force’s official ered, the Air Force has a replacement Altering the program of record number remains unchanged, the F-35A population of 1,770 aircraft. would not change the steady, down- is facing a new credibility test after a But Holmes’ statements could sig- ward trajectory of the F-35A’s recur- series of public statements made by nificantly alter the equation. The ser- ring unit costs. Last year, Lockheed Gen. Mike Holmes, the head of Air vice’s latest budget justification docu- agreed to a priced option for Lot 14 Combat Command (ACC). ments show about 325 of the 1,037 F-16s deliveries in fiscal 2022, which falls to In late February, Holmes suggested now in the Air Force fleet form the $77.9 million. But changing the overall that low-cost and attritable unmanned “pre-block” fleet that could be retired procurement quantity does have an aircraft systems (UAS) might be con- by attritable UAS instead of F-35As. impact on the program acquisition sidered by ACC as a replacement for Holmes’ goal of a fighter fleet with a unit cost (PAUC), which calculates the F-16 Block 25/30 jets (also known as 60% share of fifth-generation jets also average cost per aircraft, including “pre-block F-16s”) within 5-8 years. complicates the forecast for the F-35A. recurring and nonrecurring costs. In In congressional testimony on March Including the F-22 fleet’s 186 aircraft, the program of record, the PAUC esti- 12, Holmes added that ACC’s goal is as well as 234 F-15C/Ds, the Air Force mate is currently $116 million each for to achieve a fighter fleet ratio of 60% today operates a total fleet of 2,190 all three versions of the F-35. fifth-generation jets, such as F-35As and fighters. A 60% share of the fleet re- Noting the forecast length of the F-22s, to 40% fourth-generation aircraft, sults in 1,314 total fifth-generation air- F-35 production program, Abba rec- including F-15s, F-16s and A-10s. He also craft. After subtracting the numbers of ommends taking a long-term view. said a recent analysis by the Office of the F-22s, the Air Force would have room “I would focus less on the program of Secretary of Defense recommends an for only 1,128 F-35As, which implies a record element,” Abba said, and more even split between fourth- and fifth-gen- 34% reduction from the program of on the Air Force’s plans “to keep operation fighters. record of 1,763. tions open.” c

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

> AIR FORCE WILL CONSIDER UAS As USAF Fleet Plans Evolve, Can TO REPLACE SOME F-16s the F-35A Program Survive Intact? > ACC SETS 60% GOAL FOR FIFTH-GEN MIX IN FIGHTER FLEET

Steve Trimble Washington CYNTHIA GRIGGS/U.S. AIR FORCE riginal estimates for costs, Barring a significant increase The U.S. Air Force’s unbroken com- schedules and quantities of in the Air Force’s authorized force mitment to buy 1,763 F-35As through Othe Lockheed Martin F-35 structure, both statements appear the mid-2040s appears threatened upon contract award in October 2001 to jeopardize the mathematical pos- by new interest in low-cost UAS and proved highly unreliable over the sibility for the F-35A to achieve the fighter program’s nearly two-decade full program of record. fourth-generation fighters life span, but one critical number did As fleet acquisition plans stand today, Tomorrow’s Technology Leaders not: 1,763. the F-35A program of record appears The head of the Air Force’s F-35 In- That four-digit figure represents sound. Lockheed has delivered at least tegration Office acknowledges the -nu program of record quantity for the 224 F-35As to the Air Force so far. The merical disparity implied by Holmes’ U.S. Air Force—the F-35’s largest cus- public program of record calls for the statements, but he stands by the F-35 tomer by far—accounting for more F-35A to replace A-10s and F-16s, which original program of record. Congratulations to the 2020 than half of all projected orders by currently number 281 and 1,037, respec- “The program of record for this air- U.S. and international customers. The tively, according to Aviation Week and craft is really long,” Brig. Gen. David Navy and Marine Corps, the second- Air Force databases. In 2010, Lockheed Abba said on March 9, referring to the 20 Twenties Winners! and third-largest buyers of the combat and F-35 Joint Program Office officials Air Force’s plans to continue F-35A aircraft, respectively, downsized their also confirmed that the F-35 would re- production into the mid-2040s. “I un- Aviation Week Network and AIAA congratulate this year’s 20 Twenties honorees for planned F-35 fleet by 400 aircraft in place the F-15E fleet after 2035, which derstand that’s a natural question to 2004. But the Air Force’s quantity currently numbers 228 aircraft. Adding ask, but I don’t think anybody’s ready their exceptional academic accomplishments, high value research and civil service. never budged. the number of F-35As already deliv- to make that sort of a declaration.” Although the Air Force’s official ered, the Air Force has a replacement Altering the program of record ➤ Emily Beckman, Purdue University ➤ Alexis Hepburn, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University number remains unchanged, the F-35A population of 1,770 aircraft. would not change the steady, down- ➤ Valerie Bernstein, University of Colorado Boulder ➤ Chloe Johnson, University of Texas at Austin is facing a new credibility test after a But Holmes’ statements could sig- ward trajectory of the F-35A’s recur- ➤ ➤ series of public statements made by nificantly alter the equation. The ser- ring unit costs. Last year, Lockheed Kate Byrd, Harvard University Michelle Lin, University of Colorado Boulder Gen. Mike Holmes, the head of Air vice’s latest budget justification docu- agreed to a priced option for Lot 14 ➤ Katherine Carroll, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign ➤ Julia Mihaylov, Johns Hopkins University Combat Command (ACC). ments show about 325 of the 1,037 F-16s deliveries in fiscal 2022, which falls to ➤ Sean Devey, University of Alabama ➤ Victoria Pellerito, Lawrence Technological University now in the Air Force fleet form the $77.9 million. But changing the overall In late February, Holmes suggested ➤ Paula do Vale Pereira, Massachusetts Institute of ➤ Ethan Plaehn, Purdue University that low-cost and attritable unmanned “pre-block” fleet that could be retired procurement quantity does have an Technology ➤ aircraft systems (UAS) might be con- by attritable UAS instead of F-35As. impact on the program acquisition Simon Shuham, University of Colorado Boulder ➤ sidered by ACC as a replacement for Holmes’ goal of a fighter fleet with a unit cost (PAUC), which calculates the S. Reza Fattahi M., Sharif University of Technology ➤ Gautham Viswaroopan, University of Colorado Boulder ➤ F-16 Block 25/30 jets (also known as 60% share of fifth-generation jets also average cost per aircraft, including Kanika Gakhar, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ➤ Laura Yenchesky, Massachusetts Institute of Technology “pre-block F-16s”) within 5-8 years. complicates the forecast for the F-35A. recurring and nonrecurring costs. In ➤ Shannon Gatta, University of Washington ➤ David Zuehlke, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Including the F-22 fleet’s 186 aircraft, the program of record, the PAUC esti- In congressional testimony on March ➤ Jane Gillette, University of Alabama 12, Holmes added that ACC’s goal is as well as 234 F-15C/Ds, the Air Force mate is currently $116 million each for to achieve a fighter fleet ratio of 60% today operates a total fleet of 2,190 all three versions of the F-35. fifth-generation jets, such as F-35As and fighters. A 60% share of the fleet re- Noting the forecast length of the Learn more about these winners: F-22s, to 40% fourth-generation aircraft, sults in 1,314 total fifth-generation air- F-35 production program, Abba rec- including F-15s, F-16s and A-10s. He also craft. After subtracting the numbers of ommends taking a long-term view. aviationweek.com/aerospace/introducing-2020-20-twenties said a recent analysis by the Office of the F-22s, the Air Force would have room “I would focus less on the program of Secretary of Defense recommends an for only 1,128 F-35As, which implies a record element,” Abba said, and more even split between fourth- and fifth-gen- 34% reduction from the program of on the Air Force’s plans “to keep op- In Association With: eration fighters. record of 1,763. tions open.” c

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

MDA Seeks Two-Year Schedule But the administration of former President Barack Obama canceled a Bump for New GBI Option Multiple Kill Vehicle (MKV) upgrade for the GBI in 2009, only to revive > PENTAGON SETS NGI DEBUT FOR 2028 the concept as the Multi-Object Kill Vehicle (MOKV) upgrade for the GBI > ENGINE TESTING SUGGESTS NORTH KOREAN THREAT ADVANCING in 2015. Two years later, the administration of President Donald Trump Steve Trimble Washington attempted to accelerate MOKV and deliver the upgrade five years earlier, ccelerated scheduling and later—likely with improvements that in 2025, but congressional appropria- exoatmospheric interceptor address any performance gap for the tors reallocated most of the funding as Aprograms have a bleak track accelerated deliveries in 2028. the MDA prioritized the Redesigned record over the past decade, but an The predictions received a bitterly Kill Vehicle (RKV) upgrade for GBI. By impatient Pentagon leadership decid- skeptical response from one lawmaker. early 2019, however, the RKV program ed on March 10 to try it again. After listening to Griffin link the accel- had fallen two years behind schedule, The Next-Generation Interceptor erated schedule to feedback from NGI leading Griffin to cancel the program (NGI) will enter service as early as bidders, Rep. James Cooper (D-Tenn.) in August 2019. 2028, or up to two years faster than the shot back with an apparent reference Meanwhile, the ICBM threat contin- previous “end of the decade” timeline to Boeing’s recent stumbles on test- ues to evolve. The MDA’s charter is de- for the long-delayed follow-on and re- ing NASA’s Starliner spacecraft. “But signed to ignore the threat of a volume placement for the 20-year-old Boeing these are the same contractors who attack by Russia and China, and instead Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI), several defense officials informed $5.38 billion Congress during a series of hearing Requested Next-Generation appearances in mid-March. Interceptor Funding “We believe, based on [requests for information] received back from 2020-25 the contractors, that some significant shortening of that period is possible,” Defense Undersecretary Michael Griffin told a House Armed Services Committee panel on March 11. Instead of immediately disqualifying bids that offer a faster delivery schedule $1.29 $1.26 at the expense of less performance, the billion $885 $841 billion MDA will ask combatant commanders $638 million million $465 million if they are willing to accept that trade- million off, said Vice Adm. Jon Hill, the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) director. “We know we can have opportuni- 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total 2020-25 ties to pull in schedule [by] working Source: U.S. Defense Department with industry through the evaluation process,” Hill said. He added that the failed to deliver us a space vehicle that focus on a limited nuclear ICBM strike 2028 timeline is based on a 75% con- could go to space,” Cooper said. by a rogue state. North Korea’s capa- fidence level, versus the normal 50%. Other lawmakers are eager for the bilities for a long-range, ballistic strike Hill’s key operational partner, North- MDA to finally deliver a replacement appeared primitive until 2017, when a ern Command head Gen. Terrence for the GBI, which was rushed into string of apparently successful flight O’Shaughnessy, indicated he supports service two decades ago before a full tests demonstrated a potential capacity the new plan, which he helped decide testing program. “We put a person on to strike the U.S. West Coast. Although during a Joint Requirements Over- the Moon in a shorter period of time,” North Korea has stopped long-range sight Council meeting at the Pentagon said Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio). missile tests, the country’s capabilities on March 10. Indeed, the MDA has sought to re- continue to improve, O’Shaughnessy “We’re going to be able to bring place or upgrade the original GBI for 12 told Congress, referencing comments this capability to bear sooner,” years. Boeing designed each of the 44 by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. O’Shaughnessy testified to a third GBIs to carry a single kill vehicle, and “While Kim did not specify what Armed Services panel on March 11. a successful intercept could require this new weapon would be, recent Sitting alongside Hill during a launching interceptors at the same engine testing suggests North Korea hearing on March 12, O’Shaughnessy, target. Even relatively primitive inter- may be prepared to flight-test an even whose command controls the 44 GBIs continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) more capable ICBM design that could stationed in Alaska and California, carry decoys and countermeasures. enhance Kim’s ability to threaten our also said he expects the MDA to de- More advanced ICBMs could release homeland during a crisis or conflict,” liver “follow-on” versions of the NGI multiple warheads. O’Shaughnessy said. c

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

MDA Seeks Two-Year Schedule But the administration of former Possible New ‘Engine War’ Recasts alternative,” Pratt Military Engines President Barack Obama canceled a President Matthew Bromberg told Bump for New GBI Option Multiple Kill Vehicle (MKV) upgrade Pratt as Champion of Competition Aviation Week. “If we’re not compet- for the GBI in 2009, only to revive itive in terms of capability, schedule > PENTAGON SETS NGI DEBUT FOR 2028 the concept as the Multi-Object Kill > LEGAL RULING EXPECTED BY JULY FOR PRATT’S TWO PROTESTS [and] price, I get it. But after the U.S. Vehicle (MOKV) upgrade for the GBI government spent all this money cre- > ENGINE TESTING SUGGESTS NORTH KOREAN THREAT ADVANCING in 2015. Two years later, the admin- > USAF WARNS COMPETITION WOULD CAUSE 2-3-YEAR DELAY ating two engines for the F-15 and F-16 istration of President Donald Trump platforms, why would it then not com- Steve Trimble Washington attempted to accelerate MOKV and Steve Trimble Washington pete a 450-engine program?” deliver the upgrade five years earlier, Asked if the existing F100 would ccelerated scheduling and later—likely with improvements that in 2025, but congressional appropria- jet engine maker is now engine. Service officials decided to require additional development to exoatmospheric interceptor address any performance gap for the tors reallocated most of the funding as pressuring the U.S. Defense acquire the F-15EX after concluding meet the Air Force’s requirements for Aprograms have a bleak track accelerated deliveries in 2028. the MDA prioritized the Redesigned A Department to scrap a plan the F-15C/Ds were too costly to sus- the F-15EX, Bromberg replied that he record over the past decade, but an The predictions received a bitterly Kill Vehicle (RKV) upgrade for GBI. By to award a sole-source contract to a tain and partly because it would take cannot answer that question in the impatient Pentagon leadership decid- skeptical response from one lawmaker. early 2019, however, the RKV program rival for a fleet of new fighters and too long for the Pratt F135-powered absence of a competitive process that ed on March 10 to try it again. After listening to Griffin link the accel- had fallen two years behind schedule, investigate the opportunity for per- F-35A to replace all of them. allows Pratt access to the specifica- The Next-Generation Interceptor erated schedule to feedback from NGI leading Griffin to cancel the program formance and cost improvements Pratt’s protests now threaten to tions. He also noted that the F100 (NGI) will enter service as early as bidders, Rep. James Cooper (D-Tenn.) in August 2019. yielded by a competitive selection disrupt that schedule and erode the exclusively powers the Air Force’s 2028, or up to two years faster than the shot back with an apparent reference Meanwhile, the ICBM threat contin- process. Air Force’s original business case for existing fleet of F-15Es. previous “end of the decade” timeline to Boeing’s recent stumbles on test- ues to evolve. The MDA’s charter is de- If that narrative sounds familiar, it the F-15EX. The F100 and F110 were designed for the long-delayed follow-on and re- ing NASA’s Starliner spacecraft. “But signed to ignore the threat of a volume is because it echoes a role GE Avia - “If we have to do an engine com- to fit interchangeably in the F-15, al- placement for the 20-year-old Boeing these are the same contractors who attack by Russia and China, and instead tion played for more than 40 years, petition, it will add time—2-3 years,” though the heavily modified Saudi Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI), which included a successful bid in said Will Roper, assistant secretary Arabian F-15SA and the Qatari F-15QA several defense officials informed $5.38 the 1980s to launch the “Great En- of the Air Force for Acquisition, from which the F-15EX was derived are billion Congress during a series of hearing Requested Next-Generation gine War” over the F-15 and F-16 appearances in mid-March. Interceptor Funding fleets, and a failed campaign that “We believe, based on [requests ended almost a decade ago to es- for information] received back from 2020-25 tablish the F136 as the alternate the contractors, that some significant engine for the F-35. shortening of that period is possible,” This time, however, the roles Defense Undersecretary Michael are reversed. Pratt & Whitney, Griffin told a House Armed Services Committee panel on March 11. Pratt & Whitney’s F100 Instead of immediately disqualifying (pictured) is designed to be bids that offer a faster delivery schedule $1.29 $1.26 interchangeable with GE at the expense of less performance, the billion $885 $841 billion Aviation’s F110 as the engine MDA will ask combatant commanders $638 million million for the Boeing F-15 fleet. $465 million if they are willing to accept that trade- million off, said Vice Adm. Jon Hill, the Missile which waged fierce lobbying cam- Defense Agency (MDA) director. paigns against competitive engine “We know we can have opportuni- 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total 2020-25 policies for the F-15, F-16 and F-35, ties to pull in schedule [by] working has switched sides in the debate. Source: U.S. Defense Department with industry through the evaluation In response to the U.S. Air process,” Hill said. He added that the failed to deliver us a space vehicle that focus on a limited nuclear ICBM strike Force’s decision to field the 2028 timeline is based on a 75% con- could go to space,” Cooper said. by a rogue state. North Korea’s capa- F-15EX into production pow - fidence level, versus the normal 50%. Other lawmakers are eager for the bilities for a long-range, ballistic strike ered solely by GE F110 engines,

Hill’s key operational partner, North- MDA to finally deliver a replacement appeared primitive until 2017, when a Pratt has filed two protests with STAFF SGT. THOMAS TROWER/U.S. AIR FORCE ern Command head Gen. Terrence for the GBI, which was rushed into string of apparently successful flight the Government Accountability O’Shaughnessy, indicated he supports service two decades ago before a full tests demonstrated a potential capacity Office (GAO), which is scheduled to Technology and Logistics, testifying exclusively powered by GE’s engine. the new plan, which he helped decide testing program. “We put a person on to strike the U.S. West Coast. Although render judgments on both cases by before the House Armed Services The GAO does not release com- during a Joint Requirements Over- the Moon in a shorter period of time,” North Korea has stopped long-range early July. Committee on March 10. plaints filed by protesters up front, sight Council meeting at the Pentagon said Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio). missile tests, the country’s capabilities The Air Force sided with GE Only a decade ago, Pratt welcomed but it does release the full text of de- on March 10. Indeed, the MDA has sought to re- continue to improve, O’Shaughnessy during the Great Engine War in 1984. a vote by Congress in 2010 to cancel cisions. It is not clear why Pratt filed “We’re going to be able to bring place or upgrade the original GBI for 12 told Congress, referencing comments Seeking to lower costs and motivate funding for the F-35 program’s alter- two separate protests on the sole- this capability to bear sooner,” years. Boeing designed each of the 44 by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Pratt to resolve stall-stagnation prob- nate engine, along with a decision by source decision for the GE engine on O’Shaughnessy testified to a third GBIs to carry a single kill vehicle, and “While Kim did not specify what lems with the original F100, the Air GE and Rolls-Royce a year later to the F-15EX, but Bromberg advised Armed Services panel on March 11. a successful intercept could require this new weapon would be, recent Force decided that year to split the abandon a plan to self-fund the cer- not reading too much into it. Sitting alongside Hill during a launching interceptors at the same engine testing suggests North Korea engine contract for the F-15 and F-16 tification of the F136. But Pratt now “I’d like to obviously be able to dis- hearing on March 12, O’Shaughnessy, target. Even relatively primitive inter- may be prepared to flight-test an even between GE’s F110 and Pratt’s F100. embraces the potential benefits of an cuss them, but I can’t because it’s a le- whose command controls the 44 GBIs continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) more capable ICBM design that could Thirty-six years later, the Air Force engine competition for the F-15EX. gal process,” Bromberg said. “I would stationed in Alaska and California, carry decoys and countermeasures. enhance Kim’s ability to threaten our now worries about the schedule im- “Our government supports compe- really view them as a single protest also said he expects the MDA to de- More advanced ICBMs could release homeland during a crisis or conflict,” pact if the GAO sustains either or tition at all levels, and we’re interested on a single procurement action, and liver “follow-on” versions of the NGI multiple warheads. O’Shaughnessy said. c both of Pratt’s protests for the F-15EX in providing the F100 as a competitive that is a lack of competition.” c

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 41 DEFENSE

Marines Dial Back UAS Strategy because the air vehicle is designed for an aircraft carrier, not an amphibious assault ship. The MQ-25 requires a > MUX PLAGUED BY REQUIREMENTS CREEP catapult shot and an arresting cable— and this launch-and-recovery method MARINES OPT FOR FAMILY-OF-SYSTEMS APPROACH > is not available on an amphibious ship. The Marines operate General Lee Hudson Washington Atomics MQ-9 Reapers from MCAS Yuma in Arizona to support Task he U.S. Marine Corps is dras- ditionary Force’s capability gaps. The Force Southwest in Afghanistan. tically changing course in its next-generation UAS is intended to This capability is intended to inform Teffort to develop a large un- have greater range, endurance, alti- concepts of operations for MUX and manned aircraft for vertical takeoff tude and payload capability than con- is allowing the service to nurture its from amphibious ships. Instead of a ventional vertical-takeoff-and-landing own cadre of UAS operators. single large, expensive air vehicle that technology. The service flipped the script when can do everything, the service plans “With a family-of-systems ap - creating a development to acquire the to buy smaller unmanned systems for proach, my sense is we’re going to next-generation UAS. Traditionally, specific missions. have an air vehicle that can do some the Marines would have launched a The Marine Air-Ground Task Force of the higher-end requirements from competition to purchase a new Group Unmanned Aircraft Expeditionary a land-based, high-endurance vehi- 5 UAS. Instead the Marine Corps (MUX) effort was initially envisioned cle, but we’re still going to maintain a kicked off a competition to figure out as a Group 5 shipboard unmanned air- shipboard capability; it may just not what payloads it wants developed be- craft system (UAS) that could conduct be as big as we originally configured,” fore purchasing an air vehicle. In No- high-end mission profiles. The Pen- Rudder says. vember, the Navy awarded contracts for the creation of four individual mis- A AV sion payloads: airborne early warning, data relay, electronic warfare and ISR. 2021-25, .. Each first-place winner received $700,000. Second-place winners re- $63.451 $63.028 $64.288 ceived $200,000, and third-place fin- ishers received $100,000. Boeing won first place for the data $22.589 $27.063 relay payload design concept, and BAE Systems took the top spot for the ISR prize challenge. Telephonics secured first place with its design 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 concept for an airborne early warning mission payload, and L3Harris Source: U.S. Navy fiscal 2021 budget request Technologies won first place for the tagon is facing a stagnating budget The service operates the Boeing electronic warfare mission payload. topline, and the service’s reshaping Insitu RQ-21 Blackjack to fulfill its Piasecki Aircraft Corp. took second of its new UAS program is a casualty. shipboard intelligence, surveillance place for the airborne early warning The head of the Marine Corps points and reconnaissance (ISR) require- mission payload, and Bell Textron/ to MUX as an example of requirements ments. Rudder envisions the MUX Sierra Nevada won third place. creep and how the services must be shipboard capability to be “RQ-21+” or Piasecki also came in second for the more disciplined. The Marines piled on some sort of Group 3 or 4 air vehicle. ISR mission payload, while General 15 requirements for MUX and caused The Marine Corps is still holding Atomics secured third place. the program to become buried and un- out hope for a Group 5 UAS, but that Northrop Grumman finished in manageable, says Marine Corps Com- will not be possible until far into the second place for the data relay mis- mandant Gen. David Berger. future, Rudder says. The service imag- sion payload, and Cubic Defense Ap- “Now we’re [going] the other way, ines there will be one air vehicle in the plications Inc. came in third. General shrinking back down,” Berger says. near term that is land-based, and a Atomics won second place in the elec- The Marine Corps is altering its separate shipboard design. tronic warfare payload category, and strategy by not having a long list of Berger wants MUX to come into Piasecki came in third. critical requirements for a single air fruition within the next 10 years, and In December, the Marine Corps vehicle, says Lt. Gen. Steven Rudder, the Marine Corps believes the quick- canceled prize challenges for architec- deputy commandant for aviation. The est way to make it happen is by pur- ture and modularity and instead opted top requirement is airborne early warn- chasing a land-based high-endurance for a government-driven approach. ing coverage for amphibious forces. air vehicle and a separate UAS that Current Marine Corps plans are for The U.S. Military Strategy and the can operate from an amphibious ship. MUX to be introduced into the fleet in U.S. Maritime Strategy require an There is no plan for the Marine 2026, flying ahead of Lockheed Mar- advanced, multimission ship-based Corps to use the Navy’s Boeing MQ-25 tin F-35s and Bell-Boeing V-22s to per- Group 5 UAS to fill the Marine Expe- Stingray for its shipboard UAS role form support tasks. c

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

Marines Dial Back UAS Strategy because the air vehicle is designed for U.S. Army Pushes Ahead With even though there was no flight time an aircraft carrier, not an amphibious associated with that . . . a tremendous assault ship. The MQ-25 requires a Black Hawk Replacement Program amount of data came out of that,” says > MUX PLAGUED BY REQUIREMENTS CREEP catapult shot and an arresting cable— Brig. Gen. Walter Rugen, Future Ver- and this launch-and-recovery method tical Lift cross-functional team direc- MARINES OPT FOR FAMILY-OF-SYSTEMS APPROACH > DEMONSTRATION, RISK-REDUCTION PHASE SPANS FISCAL 2022 > is not available on an amphibious ship. tor. “The flight envelope continues to The Marines operate General > UH-60 REPLACEMENT ACCELERATED BY FOUR YEARS expand for Sikorsky-Boeing. They’re Lee Hudson Washington Atomics MQ-9 Reapers from MCAS flying a bit more aggressively now Yuma in Arizona to support Task Lee Hudson Washington than the V-280, and as the JMR fin- he U.S. Marine Corps is dras- ditionary Force’s capability gaps. The Force Southwest in Afghanistan. ishes up toward the end of this fiscal tically changing course in its next-generation UAS is intended to This capability is intended to inform ver the next two years, two the precursor to FLRAA. Bell built the year, maybe August, we’re going to see Teffort to develop a large un- have greater range, endurance, alti- concepts of operations for MUX and teams, Sikorsky-Boeing and V-280 Valor, which reached 300 kt., very comparable data on both sides.” manned aircraft for vertical takeoff tude and payload capability than con- is allowing the service to nurture its O Bell, will continue risk-reduc- while Sikorsky-Boeing constructed the Not every single hour of flight time from amphibious ships. Instead of a ventional vertical-takeoff-and-landing own cadre of UAS operators. tion work for the U.S. Army’s effort to SB-1 Defiant to reach at least 250 kt. is valuable for the Army. It depends on single large, expensive air vehicle that technology. The service flipped the script when replace the aging UH-60 Black Hawk. The Valor has flown 170 hr. in flight what test points were executed during can do everything, the service plans “With a family-of-systems ap - creating a development to acquire the The service awarded Sikorsky-Boe- testing and presented to the Army each flight. The same goes for mod- to buy smaller unmanned systems for proach, my sense is we’re going to next-generation UAS. Traditionally, ing $97 million and Bell $84 million for specific missions. have an air vehicle that can do some the Marines would have launched a project agreements under the Aviation The Marine Air-Ground Task Force of the higher-end requirements from competition to purchase a new Group and Missile Technology Consortium’s Unmanned Aircraft Expeditionary a land-based, high-endurance vehi- 5 UAS. Instead the Marine Corps Other Transaction Authority. The (MUX) effort was initially envisioned cle, but we’re still going to maintain a kicked off a competition to figure out companies will deliver initial conceptu- as a Group 5 shipboard unmanned air- shipboard capability; it may just not what payloads it wants developed be- al designs, requirements feasibility and craft system (UAS) that could conduct be as big as we originally configured,” fore purchasing an air vehicle. In No- trade studies over two years, before a high-end mission profiles. The Pen- Rudder says. vember, the Navy awarded contracts formal program of record begins. for the creation of four individual mis- A $7 million difference exists in A AV sion payloads: airborne early warning, the project agreements, because al- data relay, electronic warfare and ISR. 2021-25, .. Each first-place winner received $700,000. Second-place winners re- The SB-1 Defiant is designed to $63.451 $63.028 $64.288 ceived $200,000, and third-place fin- reach speeds of at least 250 kt. ishers received $100,000. Boeing won first place for the data Bell’s V-280 Valor demonstrator $22.589 $27.063 relay payload design concept, and has already flown at 300 kt. BAE Systems took the top spot for the ISR prize challenge. Telephonics BELL secured first place with its design eling and simulation: The Army puts 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 concept for an airborne early warn- more weight into what was tested, ing mission payload, and L3Harris says Patrick Mason, program execu- Source: U.S. Navy fiscal 2021 budget request Technologies won first place for the tive officer for aviation. tagon is facing a stagnating budget The service operates the Boeing electronic warfare mission payload. A Defense Department indepen- topline, and the service’s reshaping Insitu RQ-21 Blackjack to fulfill its Piasecki Aircraft Corp. took second dent review of FLRAA’s technology of its new UAS program is a casualty. shipboard intelligence, surveillance place for the airborne early warning readiness level (TRL) decided most The head of the Marine Corps points and reconnaissance (ISR) require- mission payload, and Bell Textron/ areas were a TRL 6 or 7, while some to MUX as an example of requirements ments. Rudder envisions the MUX Sierra Nevada won third place. were rated a 5, Rugen says. This re- creep and how the services must be shipboard capability to be “RQ-21+” or Piasecki also came in second for the sulted in the Army’s decision to con- more disciplined. The Marines piled on some sort of Group 3 or 4 air vehicle. ISR mission payload, while General duct the two-year competitive demon- 15 requirements for MUX and caused The Marine Corps is still holding Atomics secured third place. stration and risk-reduction phase to the program to become buried and un- out hope for a Group 5 UAS, but that Northrop Grumman finished in raise TRLs to between 7 and 9 before manageable, says Marine Corps Com- will not be possible until far into the second place for the data relay mis- entering a program of record. mandant Gen. David Berger. future, Rudder says. The service imag- sion payload, and Cubic Defense Ap- “We see this as a good competition “Now we’re [going] the other way, ines there will be one air vehicle in the plications Inc. came in third. General between two vendors that are moving shrinking back down,” Berger says. near term that is land-based, and a Atomics won second place in the elec- forward and executing what we need The Marine Corps is altering its separate shipboard design. tronic warfare payload category, and them to do,” Mason says. strategy by not having a long list of Berger wants MUX to come into Piasecki came in third. LOCKHEED MARTIN Rugen echoes this sentiment. “The critical requirements for a single air fruition within the next 10 years, and In December, the Marine Corps though the scope of each proposal was the data that Bell captured over more proof is in the pudding,” he says. The vehicle, says Lt. Gen. Steven Rudder, the Marine Corps believes the quick- canceled prize challenges for architec- similar, the companies have different than two years. During development, Army accelerated FLRAA by four deputy commandant for aviation. The est way to make it happen is by pur- ture and modularity and instead opted technical and costing approaches, the Valor logged more flight time than years in the fiscal year 2021 budget top requirement is airborne early warn- chasing a land-based high-endurance for a government-driven approach. says Col. David Phillips, project man- the Defiant; however, the Army was request. ing coverage for amphibious forces. air vehicle and a separate UAS that Current Marine Corps plans are for ager of Future Long-Range Assault comfortable enough with the amount The service intends to make FLRAA The U.S. Military Strategy and the can operate from an amphibious ship. MUX to be introduced into the fleet in Aircraft (FLRAA). of data the Sikorsky-Boeing team sub- a program of record in fiscal year U.S. Maritime Strategy require an There is no plan for the Marine 2026, flying ahead of Lockheed Mar- Two advanced rotorcraft were man- mitted to award a project agreement. 2022. At that point, other vendors advanced, multimission ship-based Corps to use the Navy’s Boeing MQ-25 tin F-35s and Bell-Boeing V-22s to per- ufactured for the Army’s Joint Multi- “With the iron bird approach that could enter the competition and bid Group 5 UAS to fill the Marine Expe- Stingray for its shipboard UAS role form support tasks. c Role (JMR) technology demonstration, Sikorsky-Boeing went forward with, on follow-on efforts. c

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 43 DEFENSE

Korean Air Designs strator, the Kaori-X, in 2015. This dealt with some of the larger developmental Stealth Drone Demonstrator challenges, especially control in flight and fast taxiing, the sources say. > REPUBLIC OF KOREA AIR FORCE WANTS A RECONNAISSANCE Korean Air displayed a model of VERSION FIRST the KUS-FC at the Seoul Aerospace and Defense Exhibition in October > ENGINE WORK IS UNDERWAY, BUT MAYBE NOT FOR THIS AIRCRAFT 2019. But the model was the same one that the company had showed at the Bradley Perrett and Kim Minseok Seoul exhibition in 2011, when the concept was called KUS-X. That was when ine years ago, the Republic of initially for surveillance and recon- the air force said it wanted to bring Korea Air Force hoped to have naissance versions only, according a strike drone into service in 2030; it Nan unmanned combat aircraft to other sources who are familiar was envisaged as a first-tier aircraft, in service by 2030. If funding becomes with defense planning. Engineering a alongside the Lockheed Martin F-35 available soon, it could have at least a drone for weapon delivery would be Lightning and Boeing F-15K, while the stealthy reconnaissance and surveil- much harder. Korea Aerospace Industries KF-X and lance drone ready by then, according Korean Air proposes a considerable FA-50 filled the next two tiers. to officials close to a Korean Air pro- aircraft, obviously designed for con- Getting the drone ready by then is gram for such an aircraft. trolling radar reflections. The wing- still achievable if the ministry soon

This model of Korean Air’s stealthy drone proposal was first displayed in 2011 and probably no longer represents the intended design.

BRADLEY PERRETT/AW&ST The company is preparing a design span of the blended-wing-body design, funds the building and testing of a full- for a full-scale technology demon - KUS-FC, is 16 m (53 ft.) and the length scale technology demonstrator, the strator for the proposed type. But is 10 m. The X-47B technology demon- sources say. According to them, sev- the program lacks funding for flight strator that Northrop Grumman built eral missions are being considered for testing, according to one of several for the U.S. had a span of 18.9 m. the aircraft, not including air combat. sources who discussed it with Aviation A parallel program is working on The current design, on which Kore- Week. It is run by the defense minis- engines for unmanned aircraft. But an Air began work in 2016, is probably try’s Agency for Defense Development the prospective timing of KUS-FC rather different to that depicted by the (ADD), which is undertaking much of development and the size of the air- mockup. In 2016 ADD published a de- the related technology effort. craft raises doubts that it could use sign with greater wing chord than the The Republic of Korea Air Force an indigenous powerplant. Kaori-X and the mockup. wants to operate such an aircraft. The Endurance for the KUS-FC is in- At that time, the agency was plan- Korean Air design includes a weap- tended to be 6 hr. ning to build a mockup with a 15-m on bay, but the air force is looking The ADD flew a subscale demon- span—for testing of radar cross-sec-

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

Korean Air Designs strator, the Kaori-X, in 2015. This dealt tions—and eight subscale test aircraft Enlargement of wing with some of the larger developmental with spans of 3 m. Progress with the and fuselage from Stealth Drone Demonstrator challenges, especially control in flight little test aircraft is unknown, but the earlier Kaori-X design and fast taxiing, the sources say. sources say no money is available yet Inlet Duct REPUBLIC OF KOREA AIR FORCE WANTS A RECONNAISSANCE Korean Air displayed a model of to build and fly the full-scale design. > Exhaust Duct VERSION FIRST the KUS-FC at the Seoul Aerospace In Korean Air’s design, the air - and Defense Exhibition in October frame consists of carbon-fiber-re - > ENGINE WORK IS UNDERWAY, BUT MAYBE NOT FOR THIS AIRCRAFT 2019. But the model was the same one inforced plastic over an aluminum that the company had showed at the substructure. The exact choice of Bradley Perrett and Kim Minseok Seoul exhibition in 2011, when the concept materials is still subject to review, was called KUS-X. That was when one source says. ine years ago, the Republic of initially for surveillance and recon- the air force said it wanted to bring Research and development is be- Korea Air Force hoped to have naissance versions only, according a strike drone into service in 2030; it ing done at the South Korean city of Nan unmanned combat aircraft to other sources who are familiar was envisaged as a first-tier aircraft, Daejeon, where the ADD is based. in service by 2030. If funding becomes with defense planning. Engineering a alongside the Lockheed Martin F-35 Production would be undertaken at available soon, it could have at least a drone for weapon delivery would be Lightning and Boeing F-15K, while the Korean Air’s factory near Busan. A stealthy reconnaissance and surveil- much harder. Korea Aerospace Industries KF-X and production rate of two aircraft per lance drone ready by then, according Korean Air proposes a considerable FA-50 filled the next two tiers. month is proposed. to officials close to a Korean Air pro- aircraft, obviously designed for con- Getting the drone ready by then is The cost of building and testing gram for such an aircraft. trolling radar reflections. The wing- still achievable if the ministry soon a full-scale demonstrator would be much less than $100 million, the sources say, noting that the equivalent phase of the Korean Air MUAV drone project did not cost nearly as much as that. The MUAV is a medium-altitude, ADD’s preliminary design published in 2016. long-endurance surveillance aircraft. SOURCE: AGENCY FOR DEFENSE DEVELOPMENT. ILLUSTRATION: COLIN THROM/AW&ST With a straight, slim wing, it hardly provided all the knowledge for flight control the ADD and Korean Air need established a research center for enough for only exploratory work. for a swept blended-wing-body jet. gas-turbine engines for drones in De- The X-47B used the Pratt & One particular issue undertaken cember 2018. The title indicates that Whitney F100-PW-220U, a nonafter- with the Kaori-X was to ensure that its scope of work could include turbo- burning version of a powerful fighter the aircraft did not flip over on its props, turbojets and turbofans. engine. It generated 16,000-lb. thrust. back when running fast on the ground, In January, DAPA and ADD named For equal flight performance, the one source says. Hanwha Aerospace as prime contrac- KUS-FC would probably need around Meanwhile, work on engine re - tor for a UAV turbofan development 10,000-lb. thrust—again, without af- search and development is stepping project, news agency News1 report- terburning. No South Korean program up. The ministry’s Defense Acquisi- ed. The budget up to 2025 is 88 bil- for an engine of anything like that size tion Program Administration (DAPA) lion won ($74 million), which looks like is known. c

This model of Korean Air’s stealthy drone proposal was first displayed in 2011 and probably no longer represents the intended design. Listen. Understand. Innovate. BRADLEY PERRETT/AW&ST The company is preparing a design span of the blended-wing-body design, funds the building and testing of a full- Driven by an everything-is-possible attitude, for a full-scale technology demon - KUS-FC, is 16 m (53 ft.) and the length scale technology demonstrator, the CMC Electronics has embraced innovation for over strator for the proposed type. But is 10 m. The X-47B technology demon- sources say. According to them, sev- a century. Listening to our customers, understanding the program lacks funding for flight strator that Northrop Grumman built eral missions are being considered for their needs and delivering innovative solutions testing, according to one of several for the U.S. had a span of 18.9 m. the aircraft, not including air combat. is what we do best. Contact our avionics experts sources who discussed it with Aviation A parallel program is working on The current design, on which Kore- today at [email protected] Week. It is run by the defense minis- engines for unmanned aircraft. But an Air began work in 2016, is probably try’s Agency for Defense Development the prospective timing of KUS-FC rather different to that depicted by the (ADD), which is undertaking much of development and the size of the air- mockup. In 2016 ADD published a de- the related technology effort. craft raises doubts that it could use sign with greater wing chord than the The Republic of Korea Air Force an indigenous powerplant. Kaori-X and the mockup. Visit us at FIDEA, wants to operate such an aircraft. The Endurance for the KUS-FC is in- At that time, the agency was plan- March 31-April 5, Santiago, Chile Korean Air design includes a weap- tended to be 6 hr. ning to build a mockup with a 15-m on bay, but the air force is looking The ADD flew a subscale demon- span—for testing of radar cross-sec-

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 45 DEFENSE

Post-Brexit Defense Review simply too soon for a thorough analysis of Britain’s future defense needs. Challenged by Costs and Coronavirus “If you are to have a strategy that is worth the name, you must address UK MINISTERS WANT TO COMPLETE THE REVIEW WITHIN MONTHS ends, ways and means together. . . . If > you do not do the whole package, in- > EQUIPMENT PLANS ARE STILL CHALLENGED BY BUDGET DEFICITS cluding the money, together, then you do not have a strategic review,” Jock Stirrup, a former chief of the Roy - Tony Osborne London al Air Force (RAF) and UK Defense Staff, told parliamentary defense com- ost-Brexit Britain is taking its nota bly the Foreign Office, the Defense mittee hearings on March 17. first steps toward understand- Ministry and the Department for In- The 2020 review represents a break Ping its place in the world and ternational Development—consider- from the traditional defense-led Stra- the military capabilities it may need able focus is likely to be on defense. It tegic Defense and Security Review to ensure it can hold onto that status. has the largest budget of those under (SDSR) usually held every five years. A review, described by Prime the microscope and an oft-criticized Some analysts contend the 2020 edi- Minister Boris Johnson as the most procurement process that some in tion could shape defense capabilities extensive of its kind since the end of government are eager to overhaul. for decades to come. Jack Watling, the Cold War, is examining the UK’s The process will run in parallel Land Warfare research fellow at the foreign, defense, security and devel- with the government’s comprehensive London-based Royal United Services opment policies. And it is proceeding spending review. That assessment Institute (RUSI) says the review despite the challenges and costs sur- decides UK government spending for would have to make “hard choices” rounding the COVID-19 pandemic. the next three years and will deliver but that these would “determine the Although it will examine the work its findings potentially as early as this trajectory of the UK’s defense capa- of several government departments— summer. Some critics argue that is bilities for a generation.”

Britain is committed to 138 F-35s but has yet to budget for 90 of them. SAC AMY LUPTON/ROYAL AIR FORCE AMY LUPTON/ROYAL SAC

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

Post-Brexit Defense Review simply too soon for a thorough anal- He notes that for a post-Brexit lion) over the next 10 years, equivalent ysis of Britain’s future defense needs. Britain looking to expand its trading to 42% of the ministry budget during Challenged by Costs and Coronavirus “If you are to have a strategy that and security partners, future conflicts that period. Auditors say the Defense is worth the name, you must address may be difficult to avoid. “Security Ministry has a shortfall of at least £2.9 UK MINISTERS WANT TO COMPLETE THE REVIEW WITHIN MONTHS ends, ways and means together. . . . If and trade partnerships are closely billion over that period, but this could > you do not do the whole package, in- intertwined. . . . If ‘Global Britain’ be as high as £13 billion. > EQUIPMENT PLANS ARE STILL CHALLENGED BY BUDGET DEFICITS cluding the money, together, then you means diversifying our economic Although the UK is expanding its do not have a strategic review,” Jock partnerships, it will be necessary intelligence, surveillance and recon- Stirrup, a former chief of the Roy - to build meaningful security ties as naissance (ISR) capabilities with Tony Osborne London al Air Force (RAF) and UK Defense well,” Watling says. the upcoming arrival of the General Staff, told parliamentary defense com- The UK must look at its role in the Atomics Protector unmanned aircraft ost-Brexit Britain is taking its nota bly the Foreign Office, the Defense mittee hearings on March 17. Euro-Atlantic alliance and in the Great system and deliveries of the Boeing P-8 first steps toward understand- Ministry and the Department for In- The 2020 review represents a break Power competition, in addition to oth- Poseidon maritime patroller—two of Ping its place in the world and ternational Development—consider- from the traditional defense-led Stra- er global issues and homeland secu- which have already arrived—capability the military capabilities it may need able focus is likely to be on defense. It tegic Defense and Security Review rity, Defense Minister Ben Wallace gaps in the ISR mission are imminent. to ensure it can hold onto that status. has the largest budget of those under (SDSR) usually held every five years. told Parliament. The review will also The planned retirement of the A review, described by Prime the microscope and an oft-criticized Some analysts contend the 2020 edi- “place prosperity and manufacturing RAF’s long-suffering Boeing E-3D Minister Boris Johnson as the most procurement process that some in tion could shape defense capabilities at its heart,” he added. Sentry fleet has been pushed to extensive of its kind since the end of government are eager to overhaul. for decades to come. Jack Watling, The assessment comes at a chal- December 2022. But the Boeing E-7 the Cold War, is examining the UK’s The process will run in parallel Land Warfare research fellow at the lenging time for Britain’s defense and Wedgetail, the 737-based platform foreign, defense, security and devel- with the government’s comprehensive London-based Royal United Services its equipment-procurement plans. planned as its replacement, is not due opment policies. And it is proceeding spending review. That assessment Institute (RUSI) says the review The National Audit Office recently to enter service until the end of 2023, despite the challenges and costs sur- decides UK government spending for would have to make “hard choices” warned that for a third consecutive potentially leaving a yearlong capabil- rounding the COVID-19 pandemic. the next three years and will deliver but that these would “determine the year there will be shortfalls in the ity gap. The RAF also plans to retire Although it will examine the work its findings potentially as early as this trajectory of the UK’s defense capa- budget. The ministry’s plans call for its Raytheon Sentinel radar-recon- of several government departments— summer. Some critics argue that is bilities for a generation.” the spending of £183.6 billion ($214 bil- naissance platform in March 2021. It got several reprieves after its Afghan- istan duties ended, but its departure would leave the UK without a standoff ground-moving-target-indicator and Britain is committed to 138 F-35s synthetic aperture radar platform. but has yet to budget for 90 of them. Several commitments made in the 2015 SDSR, such as the UK’s decision to commit all 138 Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighters across the lifetime of the program, have also not been budgeted, auditors note. Current plans forecast only the costs of the first 48 aircraft. The government says that “decisions on future numbers and aircraft variants will be ● taken at the relevant time,” but it is unclear whether this will be consid- ● ered in the review. The British government is aiming ● to maintain the target of 2% of GDP set by NATO for all allies. Defense ministers have said they will fight to meet that share, and more if needed, although the UK has a history of not fully funding post-review defense portfolios. “It is not a review designed to cut costs,” says Jeremy Quin, minister for defense procurement. “It is a review designed to ensure we know what we are doing in the world and that [this is achieved] through really effective equipment.” Along with defining capabilities required for land, sea and air, the review is also likely to conclude that the UK should make additional investment in

SAC AMY LUPTON/ROYAL AIR FORCE AMY LUPTON/ROYAL SAC both the cyber and space domains. c

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 47 DEFENSE DEFENSE AIRCRAFT OPPORTUNITIES IN SOUTH AMERICA Across South America, militaries have ongoing requirements for ﬁ ghters, attack helicopters and surveillance aircraft. Here is a snapshot of some of the COLOMBIA outstanding requirements that could translate into In July 2019, the Colombian new acquisitions over the course of the 2020s, Air Force short-listed three according to the Aviation Week Intelligence Network. teams in its quest to replace a fleet of Israel Aerospace Indus- Daniel Urchick and Matt Joupi Washington tries Kfir fighters. Seeking 18 aircraft when funds are available, Colombia will turn to the Eurofighter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin’s F-16 Block 70/72 or the Saab JAS 39. The Colombian Navy wants to expand its maritime surveillance fleet of three Airbus CN-235 maritime

OERNMENT OF ARENTINA

PARAGUAY The Paraguayan Air Force is seeking to replace its EMB-312A Tucano aircraft with a fleet of six light combat aircraft. Officials from the service observed the U.S. Air Force’s OA-X trials in 2017 between the Embraer A-29 and Textron AT-6. Argentina’s Fabrica Militar de Aviones (FMA) is also offering its IA-63 Pampa to fill the requirement.

CHILE ASSAULT PERU The Chilean Air Force plans to retire Peru began studying its requirement for fighter aircraft in 2018 and is still its Boeing EB-707 Phalcon around looking to replace its air force’s Dassault Mirage 2000 and Mikoyan MiG-29 2025. Last year, officials from Saab fleets with a single type of aircraft. Contending for the role are the Dassault met with senior service officials to Rafale, Korea Aerospace Industries FA-50, Lockheed Martin F-16 and Mikoy- discuss further requirements for an MiG-35. airborne early warning and control The country is also considering the purchase of an airborne early warning aircraft. The service has a require- and control aircraft, either the Embraer 145 or Saab 340 as part of its effort ment for one such aircraft and is to modernize through 2025. And it is seeking a dozen light utility helicopters

ACROUN CAINARON PRASERT/TAI ETTY IMAES AN CARCOM/ETTY IMAES PRASERT/TAI ETTY IMAES CAINARON ACROUN to conduct search-and-rescue missions.

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE DEFENSE AIRCRAFT OPPORTUNITIES IN SOUTH AMERICA TONY OSORNE/AST Across South America, militaries have ongoing BRAZIL requirements for ﬁ ghters, attack helicopters and The Brazilian Army has a strategic program for aviation revealing its desire surveillance aircraft. Here is a snapshot of some of the to acquire a new attack helicopter by 2021, and the may partner on the COLOMBIA Navy outstanding requirements that could translate into purchase. A number of companies are contending for the chance at making In July 2019, the Colombian 12 aircraft for each service, including the Airbus Tiger, Bell AH-1Z Viper, new acquisitions over the course of the 2020s, Air Force short-listed three the Boeing AH-64E Apache and the Turkish Aerospace Industries T129 ATAK. according to the Aviation Week Intelligence Network. teams in its quest to replace a fleet of Israel Aerospace Indus- Daniel Urchick and Matt Joupi Washington tries Kfir fighters. Seeking 18 aircraft when funds are available, Colombia LOCEE MARTIN will turn to the Eurofighter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin’s F-16 Block 70/72 or the Saab JAS 39. patrollers with four new aircraft. The Colombian Navy wants to ex- It may opt to continue with the pand its maritime surveillance fleet CN-235 or pick up the ATR 42-300 $520 MILLION of three Airbus CN-235 maritime or the Beechcraft B350i. The amount of Brazilian aircraft exports in 2009-19, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. OERNMENT OF ARENTINA

PARAGUAY The Paraguayan Air Force is seeking to replace its EMB-312A Tucano aircraft South American Military Aircraft Imports with a fleet of six light combat aircraft. Officials from the service observed the 2009-19 (in U.S. $ millions) U.S. Air Force’s OA-X trials in 2017 between the Embraer A-29 and Textron AT-6. Argentina’s Fabrica Militar de Aviones (FMA) is also offering its IA-63 Pampa Argentina 145 to fill the requirement. Bolivia 117

Brazil 795 SAA

Chile 673 CHILE ASSAULT Colombia 799 PERU The Chilean Air Force plans to retire reportedly considering the Saab Peru began studying its requirement for fighter aircraft in 2018 and is still its Boeing EB-707 Phalcon around GlobalEye and the China Electronics looking to replace its air force’s Dassault Mirage 2000 and Mikoyan MiG-29 2025. Last year, officials from Saab Technology Group Corp. Y-9. Ecuador 317 fleets with a single type of aircraft. Contending for the role are the Dassault met with senior service officials to The Chilean Army expects to Rafale, Korea Aerospace Industries FA-50, Lockheed Martin F-16 and Mikoy- discuss further requirements for order six light-to-medium tactical Peru 430 an MiG-35. airborne early warning and control transport aircraft around 2021. The The country is also considering the purchase of an airborne early warning aircraft. The service has a require- primary contenders are the Airbus and control aircraft, either the Embraer 145 or Saab 340 as part of its effort ment for one such aircraft and is C295 and the Leonardo C-27J. Venezuela 448 to modernize through 2025. And it is seeking a dozen light utility helicopters Source: Stocom nternatona eace esearc nsttute ACROUN CAINARON PRASERT/TAI ETTY IMAES AN CARCOM/ETTY IMAES PRASERT/TAI ETTY IMAES CAINARON ACROUN to conduct search-and-rescue missions.

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 4 PROPULSION

NASA Planning Electrified Propulsion tested a 1-megawatt motor and demonstrated 1 megawatt of dual-spool power Flight Demonstrations extraction from an F110 ﬁ ghter engine. GE Research Center is now devel- > FIVE CONTRACTORS ARE DETAILING DEMONSTRATION PROPOSALS oping a ﬂ ight-ready 1-megawatt DC- to-AC inverter using silicon carbide > THE PROJECT WOULD BUILD ON PLANNED INDUSTRY TESTBEDS power electronics under a $12 million collaboration with NASA. This will be tested at simulated 30,000-ft. altitude in the NASA Electric Aircraft Testbed facility at Plum Brook Station, Ohio.

Ampaire has converted a pair of Cessna 337 Skymasters to hybrid- electric propulsion testbeds. Pratt has kept quiet about its NASA

AMPAIRE project work but is likely studying integration of a megawatt-class motor/ generator into a second-generation geared turbofan optimized for more Guy Norris Los Angeles and Graham Warwick Washington electric aircraft. Under Project 804, Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whit- ney Canada are designing a parallel cknowledging the rapid evolu- in June 2019 will be completed this hybrid-electric demonstrator based tion of the electric aircraft June. NASA also let EAP contracts to on a de Havilland Canada Dash 8. Amarket, NASA wants to tap startups Ampaire and Wright Elec- “We are asking [the contractors] into industry plans for electrified tric in September 2019 that will be what it will take to mature a 1-mega- power- train demonstrators to advance completed this September. Contrac- watt-class power train. What are the toward its ultimate goal of applying tors were assigned 12 tasks, including ground and flight tests that will be the technology to single-aisle airliners. outlining plans for a flying testbed needed?” says Collier. “Then we are NASA is planning an Electrified under the EPFD. focusing on the fl ight-test vehicle it- Powertrain Flight Demonstration NASA’s notional timeline for elec- self. And we’ve asked each of them to (EPFD) project that would build on trifi ed power-train development begins describe the technical plan and risks component technology work now un- with the technology maturation already associated with the fl ight test, the cost derway, take advantage of power-train underway, progresses through ground and the schedule.” demonstrators already planned by in- and fl ight tests of turboprop-focused NASA is beginning with turbo- dustry and lead to a possible “multi- demonstrators to turbofan-focused prop-focused electrified propulsion technology” subsonic X-plane. A testbeds and culminates in a “multi- “because there are a lot of demon- follow-on to NASA’s X-59 QueSST low- tech” X-plane aimed at an eventual strators on the drawing board, and boom supersonic fl ight demonstrator, electrifi ed single-aisle airliner. people are starting to execute,” he this could combine electrifi ed propul- Ampaire is fl ying a hybrid-electric says. “We’re moving toward a turbo- sion with an unconventional confi gu- demonstrator based on the Cessna 337 prop-based demonstration because ration for an ultra e cient airliner. Skymaster, which it plans to certify as it’s a great learning tool. It’s a good Planned to begin in fi scal 2021, the the 4-6-seat Electric EEL. Under its place to start. Using a turboprop test- EPFD would prove technology for EAP contract with NASA, Ampaire bed will be applicable to future larger electrifi ed propulsion in the 1-mega- is working with Ikhana Aircraft Ser- applications as well.” watt power range, for aircraft enter- vices to study modifying the 19-seat de The path to turbofan-focused elec- ing service in 2030-35. NASA believes Havilland Canada DHC-6 Twin Otter trifi ed propulsion is less clear. “[But] electrified propulsion could reduce to parallel hybrid-electric propulsion. we are doing all this to ensure this both total energy and maintenance Wright is ground-testing a nine-seat technology suite will eventually im- costs for future commercial aircraft. aircraft modified to hybrid-electric pact the turbofan OEMs,” says Col- As a fi rst step, NASA awarded fi ve propulsion and aimed at the private lier. “We believe all the learning that Electric Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) aviation market. It has also launched comes from simple and not-so-simple contracts to manufacturers for project development of a 1.5-megawatt, 3-kilo- turboprop demonstrations will lead to planning and risk reduction. “All are volt power train as the foundation of good understanding.” He cites knowl- focused on future flight demonstra- the propulsion system for a 186-seat edge on integration with the aircraft tions to be executed under EPFD,” short-haul electric airliner aimed at and the cockpit, where batteries are says Fay Collier, associate director for entry into service around 2030. located and cables run. fl ight strategy in NASA’s Integrated Boeing is exploring electric propul- “A lot of the integration issues will be Aviation Systems Program. sion at a small scale through urban air worked as we focus on the power train,” Initial contracts awarded to Boeing, mobility programs with multiple sub- says Collier. “Keep in mind that we are General Electric and Pratt & Whitney sidiaries and partners. GE Aviation has very focused on power-train demon-

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST PROPULSION

NASA Planning Electrified Propulsion tested a 1-megawatt motor and demonstration. With this new project it’s ing,” says Collier. “The bigger the air- plan for what comes after the X-59 strated 1 megawatt of dual-spool power not about anybody’s favorite [aircraft] plane gets, the harder it’s going to be supersonic demonstrator. Four years Flight Demonstrations extraction from an F110 ﬁ ghter engine. configuration for that technology.” and the longer it’s going to take.” The ago, NASA envisaged an Ultra-Effi- GE Research Center is now devel- NASA’s next step is project for - focus on 1 megawatt represents “the cient Subsonic Technology (UEST) > FIVE CONTRACTORS ARE DETAILING DEMONSTRATION PROPOSALS oping a ﬂ ight-ready 1-megawatt DC- mulation for a five-year EPFD effort sweet spot,” he says. “You can work up X-plane, proposals for which were to-AC inverter using silicon carbide beginning in October, assuming Con- or down in size from there and make dominated by blended wing-body > THE PROJECT WOULD BUILD ON PLANNED INDUSTRY TESTBEDS power electronics under a $12 million gress approves the agency’s fiscal quite a bit of impact. So it’s low-hang- (BWB) designs from Boeing, Dzyne collaboration with NASA. This will be 2021 budget request. Funded under ing fruit, and you can get a quick start.” Technologies and Lockheed Martin. tested at simulated 30,000-ft. altitude a preformulation effort, the five EAP A megawatt-class electric motor But NASA’s subsonic project was in the NASA Electric Aircraft Testbed contracts call for details of each com- is four times the state of the art in subsequently redirected away from facility at Plum Brook Station, Ohio. pany’s proposed testbed. “I gave each power terms. “That is no small thing,” BWBs to focus more on hybrid-elec- of them a chance to describe a couple says Collier. “A megawatt will enable tric and all-electric concepts, and the Ampaire has converted a pair of of fairly low-level risk-reduction paths electric propulsion to move from agency sees the EPFD as an oppor- Cessna 337 Skymasters to hybrid- that they would want to take toward small to large. We can start small tunity to springboard into a broad- electric propulsion testbeds. a flight demonstrator, and they’re all with thin-haul and regional aircraft, er, more comprehensive follow-on different,” Collier says. and these small projects will ulti- X-plane with a significantly recrafted Pratt has kept quiet about its NASA Examples of questions to be an- mately impact single-aisles, where UEST effort. “We’re still trying to de-

AMPAIRE project work but is likely studying in- swered are: “What are the human NASA traditionally focuses.” fine what would effectively be a ‘multi- tegration of a megawatt-class motor/ system integration issues associat- This also means “we don’t have to tech’ airframe and propulsion demon- generator into a second-generation ed with the testbed? If you’re in the wait for 20-megawatt capability. How strator. And this electrified propulsion geared turbofan optimized for more cockpit, how will you control this are we going to do this with a sin - thing we’re doing right now could fit Guy Norris Los Angeles and Graham Warwick Washington electric aircraft. Under Project 804, thing?” he says. “How is it going to be gle-aisle replacement airplane that right into that,” Collier says. Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whit- integrated with tests that help peo- needs that much power? That’s not go- The revised approach is also more ney Canada are designing a parallel ple working on the ground around the ing to happen for a long, long time,” says holistic, says Jimmy Kenyon, director cknowledging the rapid evolu- in June 2019 will be completed this hybrid-electric demonstrator based airplane or in the airplane? We also Collier. “Hopefully, we can kick-start of NASA’s Advanced Air Vehicles Pro- tion of the electric aircraft June. NASA also let EAP contracts to on a de Havilland Canada Dash 8. want to make sure that we have safe this thing so we can get something done gram. “We’re looking at a combination Amarket, NASA wants to tap startups Ampaire and Wright Elec- “We are asking [the contractors] of flight testing through into industry plans for electrified tric in September 2019 that will be what it will take to mature a 1-mega- the demonstrators as GE’s flight-weight 1-megawatt inverter will be power- train demonstrators to advance completed this September. Contrac- watt-class power train. What are the well as ground testing toward its ultimate goal of applying tors were assigned 12 tasks, including ground and flight tests that will be tested at simulated altitude in the NASA Electric in our facilities at NASA the technology to single-aisle airliners. outlining plans for a flying testbed needed?” says Collier. “Then we are Aircraft Testbed. or with some of our NASA is planning an Electrified under the EPFD. focusing on the fl ight-test vehicle it- partners to understand Powertrain Flight Demonstration NASA’s notional timeline for elec- self. And we’ve asked each of them to how to mature the ar- (EPFD) project that would build on trifi ed power-train development begins describe the technical plan and risks chitectures and the in- component technology work now un- with the technology maturation already associated with the fl ight test, the cost dividual components. A derway, take advantage of power-train underway, progresses through ground and the schedule.” very important demonstrators already planned by in- and fl ight tests of turboprop-focused NASA is beginning with turbo- part of that is dustry and lead to a possible “multi- demonstrators to turbofan-focused prop-focused electrified propulsion understanding technology” subsonic X-plane. A testbeds and culminates in a “multi- “because there are a lot of demon- the interaction follow-on to NASA’s X-59 QueSST low- tech” X-plane aimed at an eventual strators on the drawing board, and effects in an appropri- boom supersonic fl ight demonstrator, electrifi ed single-aisle airliner. people are starting to execute,” he ate environment.” this could combine electrifi ed propul- Ampaire is fl ying a hybrid-electric says. “We’re moving toward a turbo- “Right now, we’re sion with an unconventional confi gu- demonstrator based on the Cessna 337 prop-based demonstration because looking at how to make ration for an ultra e cient airliner. Skymaster, which it plans to certify as it’s a great learning tool. It’s a good the best use of what’s Planned to begin in fi scal 2021, the the 4-6-seat Electric EEL. Under its place to start. Using a turboprop test- going on around the EPFD would prove technology for EAP contract with NASA, Ampaire bed will be applicable to future larger country with differ-

electrifi ed propulsion in the 1-mega- is working with Ikhana Aircraft Ser- applications as well.” NASA ent industry partners watt power range, for aircraft enter- vices to study modifying the 19-seat de The path to turbofan-focused elec- and how to reduce the ing service in 2030-35. NASA believes Havilland Canada DHC-6 Twin Otter trifi ed propulsion is less clear. “[But] operation of the flying testbed.” that’s meaningful, and maybe acceler- risk relative to making a decision on electrified propulsion could reduce to parallel hybrid-electric propulsion. we are doing all this to ensure this NASA is also exploring the option ates progress toward larger systems.” how we could go forward with a ve - both total energy and maintenance Wright is ground-testing a nine-seat technology suite will eventually im- of a government-furnished “common” Bob Pearce, NASA associate admin- hicle that would demonstrate either costs for future commercial aircraft. aircraft modified to hybrid-electric pact the turbofan OEMs,” says Col- flying testbed that could be either istrator for aeronautics, says the strat- an all-electric or hybrid-electric air- As a fi rst step, NASA awarded fi ve propulsion and aimed at the private lier. “We believe all the learning that owned and operated by industry or egy of focusing on the 1-megawatt class craft,” says Ed Waggoner, deputy as- Electric Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) aviation market. It has also launched comes from simple and not-so-simple flown as a NASA-operated asset. The builds on component and system work sociate administrator for programs. contracts to manufacturers for project development of a 1.5-megawatt, 3-kilo- turboprop demonstrations will lead to EAP contractors have been asked to already underway within the agency. “To do that, we’re going to take ad- planning and risk reduction. “All are volt power train as the foundation of good understanding.” He cites knowl- describe their requirements for such “The systems, motors and so forth vantage of assets that maybe industry focused on future flight demonstra- the propulsion system for a 186-seat edge on integration with the aircraft a common testbed as well as the pros tested so far are maybe not at the flight already has in place and partner with tions to be executed under EPFD,” short-haul electric airliner aimed at and the cockpit, where batteries are and cons of using this approach ver- weights we would like to get to, but are them to do things that work along says Fay Collier, associate director for entry into service around 2030. located and cables run. sus providing their own vehicles. significantly more advanced than what with their individual industry strat- fl ight strategy in NASA’s Integrated Boeing is exploring electric propul- “A lot of the integration issues will be As early applications of electrified you can get commercially off the shelf.” egies, as well as what we at NASA Aviation Systems Program. sion at a small scale through urban air worked as we focus on the power train,” propulsion are likely to be smaller in A key consideration for the EPFD think are the big barriers to start ad- Initial contracts awarded to Boeing, mobility programs with multiple sub- says Collier. “Keep in mind that we are size, “the smaller guys are going to is how electrified propulsion technol- dressing to make this a reality for the General Electric and Pratt & Whitney sidiaries and partners. GE Aviation has very focused on power-train demon- have the advantage in terms of tim- ogy might fold into NASA’s evolving country.” c

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 51 URBAN AIR MOBILITY

such as New York-Boston and Los company’s two 7.5-ft.- TRANSCEND AIR Angeles-San Francisco. With a max- span test vehicles, imum takeoff gross weight of almost says Chief Operating 7,000 lb. and a useful load of 2,190 lb., Officer Peter Schmidt, the pressurized aircraft is targeted at former president and cruise speeds up to 405 mph (350 kt.) CEO of air-taxi oper- and operating altitudes up to 20,000 ft. ator Linear Air. “We The Vy 400 is designed around a sin- are embarking on he- gle turboshaft engine that is mounted licopter-mode qualifi- in the rear fuselage and drives wingtip cation flights prior to proprotors via gearboxes and shafts. getting back on our The company originally planned to use truck-based test rig a 1,700-shp Pratt & Whitney PT6A-67F, for airplane-mode data similar to the -67A variant powering collection,” he adds. Leonardo’s AW609 civil tiltrotor, but Schmidt also says A larger electric-driven tail fan will improve stability says it will now use a 2,000-shp-class analysis and simu- and control in vertical flight mode. CT7-2E1, a version of General Elec- lation of Transcend tric’s CT7/T700 family powering the Air’s latest full-scale propeller design combined FAA Part 23 commuter, AW149/189 helicopters. “achieves our high/hot hover-out-of- Part 27 rotorcraft and Part 21.17(b) “We have come to realize that, ground-effect and max cruise perfor- tiltwing/tiltrotor categories, the Vy with the sizing of the geartrain at this mance targets while reducing noise, 400 is targeted at entry into service point, we are going to end up with a rotating at just over Mach 0.5 at the around the middle of the decade. De- CT7,” says Transcend CEO Gregory tips in hover.” pending on the completion of addi- Bruell. “Engine selection is driven With Transcend targeting in- tional funding rounds, the program entirely by weight and size. We could ner-city sites such as floating helipads could come together in under three put smaller gearboxes in there if we on rivers for operating locations, the years, says Schmidt. “It’s a little ambi- had higher-speed driveshafts in the company says high performance with tious, but it is a very simple aircraft,” wing, but we wanted to stick with our low noise is critical to its business he adds. c

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST URBAN AIR MOBILITY TECHNOLOGY NATS

Transcend Refines Design model. The Vy 400’s three-blade ro- tors will be designed for a maximum for Intercity VTOL climb rate of 4,750 fpm and hover speed of 40 mph. > THERE HAS BEEN A SWITCH TO A BIGGER ENGINE AS DESIGN MATURES Work is also underway to perfect the fly-by-wire flight control system, > LARGER TAIL FAN IMPROVES STABILITY AND CONTROL which will use electric actuators and incorporate envelope protection to en- Guy Norris Los Angeles sure a safe transition between vertical and forward flight. argeting intercity flights with a svelte nacelles. The fact is, in terms “We have collective [pitch], wing new generation of vertical-take- of wetted area, the aircraft is largely tilt, a throttle, and we have pitch, roll Toff-and-landing (VTOL) air- unchanged.” and yaw,” says Schmidt. “This lets us craft, startup Transcend Air is poised The vehicle will be stretched slightly control the degrees of freedom right to start subscale flight tests of a re - to increase the effectiveness of an elec- now, so we are adding control laws vised version of its tiltwing Vy 400. tric-driven tail fan used for stability over time. We go out and fly it and see Large data flows make air traffic management well suited and control. “We’re how it responds. In helicopter mode Europe Provides First to artificial intelligence, Eurocontrol says. trying to front-load the aircraft self-levels, and I can tran- the design as much sition by adding collective to get what- Guidance to Industry on concludes that industry anticipates the first approval of an as possible, which is ever rate of climb I want and by tilting ML system in commercial aviation in 2025. Single-pilot op- TRANSCEND AIR Applying AI to Aviation why we’ve been flying the wing down. The result is it’s really erations would debut in 2030, and autonomous operations it at one-fifth scale. two buttons right now to go from take- would follow in 2035. We have learned a off to transition and it would be trivial > EASA EXPECTS FIRST MACHINE-LEARNING To meet these expectations, EASA plans to publish the few things, one of to totally automate that.” APPROVALS BY 2025 “first usable guidance” in 2021 for ML-based applications which is that it would Tests of the prototype version of in “human assistance and augmentation.” Guidance for be nice if it is a little the flight control software and refine- > EUROCONTROL WANTS TO ACCELERATE “human- machine collaboration” would follow in 2022 and bit longer. We are go- ment of the control laws are being USE OF AI IN ATM that for “more autonomous” aircraft in 2024. EASA says it ing to be extending undertaken for the full-scale Vy 400 received the first applications in 2019 for projects planning The Vy 400 is a single-turbine, five-passenger tiltwing the tail fan further using the X-Plane flight simulator. “We Thierry Dubois Lyon, France to make “limited use of AI/ML solutions.” VTOL being designed for scheduled intercity services. backward and mak- have achieved full-envelope stability Eurocontrol, meanwhile, believes aviation and air traffic ing the fan larger for augmentation in all flight modes, in- urope is taking a lead in providing guidance on how management (ATM) are ideally placed to take full advan- The Boston-based company is additional pitch authority,” says Bruell. cluding ‘push-button’ takeoffs and artificial intelligence could affect aviation. Describing tage of AI. An action plan to advance the technology’s use designing the Vy 400 for scheduled The more powerful tail fan, pow- transitions, and are now fine-tuning Eit as potentially the most disruptive innovation facing is detailed in the Fly AI report released on March 5 and mass-transit services with a pilot and ered by an engine-driven Yasa electric handling qualities,” Schmidt says. the industry, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency prepared with partners including Airbus, Thales and the up to five passengers on busy routes motor, is being installed on one of the Intended to be certified under the (EASA) has released a road map for AI, while Eurocontrol International Air Transport Association. such as New York-Boston and Los company’s two 7.5-ft.- TRANSCEND AIR has published an action plan to accelerate development of The goal of the report is “to advance understanding among Angeles-San Francisco. With a max- span test vehicles, AI in aviation and air traffic management. aviation and ATM actors of AI and its potential, to ‘demystify imum takeoff gross weight of almost says Chief Operating “The possibilities of AI will increasingly be used in avia- AI’ and to help accelerate its uptake in aviation,” Eurocon- 7,000 lb. and a useful load of 2,190 lb., Officer Peter Schmidt, tion and will make autonomous flights, preventive mainte- trol says, adding that aviation and ATM can take advantage the pressurized aircraft is targeted at former president and nance and optimization of air traffic management possible,” of AI because of the large data flows the sector generates. cruise speeds up to 405 mph (350 kt.) CEO of air-taxi oper- said EASA Executive Director Patrick Ky in February at AI has huge potential for use in areas where it can “reduce and operating altitudes up to 20,000 ft. ator Linear Air. “We the unveiling of the first edition of the agency’s Artificial human workload or increase human capabilities in complex The Vy 400 is designed around a sin- are embarking on he- Intelligence Roadmap. scenarios,” the report states. Air traffic controllers, pilots, gle turboshaft engine that is mounted licopter-mode qualifi- The document, which will be updated annually, begins airport operators and cybersecurity officers could therefore in the rear fuselage and drives wingtip cation flights prior to to address manufacturers’ questions on how to certify AI- benefit, it adds. AI can also play a fundamental role as new proprotors via gearboxes and shafts. getting back on our based systems. Central to EASA’s vision is the concept of users such as drone operators seek to enter the airspace. The company originally planned to use truck-based test rig trustworthiness. According to the road map, the building Functions for AI will include tools for capacity prediction, a 1,700-shp Pratt & Whitney PT6A-67F, for airplane-mode data blocks of trustworthy AI are learning assurance, explain- conflict detection, traffic advisories and resolutions. The similar to the -67A variant powering collection,” he adds. ability and safety risk mitigation. The concept of learning technology is expected to “[enhance the] use of scarce re- Leonardo’s AW609 civil tiltrotor, but Schmidt also says A larger electric-driven tail fan will improve stability assurance includes data preparation, algorithm selection sources” such as airspace, runways and staff, the report says. says it will now use a 2,000-shp-class analysis and simu- and control in vertical flight mode. and parameter tuning. The report’s action plan recommends the creation of a CT7-2E1, a version of General Elec- lation of Transcend Explainable AI needs further investigation, the document federated AI infrastructure for training and AI application tric’s CT7/T700 family powering the Air’s latest full-scale propeller design combined FAA Part 23 commuter, says, as machine-learning (ML) behaviors cannot be val- development, accelerated deployment of AI in cyber and AW149/189 helicopters. “achieves our high/hot hover-out-of- Part 27 rotorcraft and Part 21.17(b) idated using conventional approaches because they lack non-safety-critical areas, more research into safety- critical “We have come to realize that, ground-effect and max cruise perfor- tiltwing/tiltrotor categories, the Vy predictability and explainability. “Consequently, there is a operations, and fostering of an “AI culture” through train- with the sizing of the geartrain at this mance targets while reducing noise, 400 is targeted at entry into service need to make more understandable the conditions that led ing and skill-building and through partnerships with other point, we are going to end up with a rotating at just over Mach 0.5 at the around the middle of the decade. De- to a given output,” the road map states. industrial sectors. CT7,” says Transcend CEO Gregory tips in hover.” pending on the completion of addi- ML is expected to change the relationship between the “With European aviation facing growing pressure to re- Bruell. “Engine selection is driven With Transcend targeting in- tional funding rounds, the program pilot and the aircraft. “AI may assist the crew by advising duce its environmental impact, as well as persistent capac- entirely by weight and size. We could ner-city sites such as floating helipads could come together in under three on routine tasks or . . . may help the crew make decisions in ity bottlenecks, we need more sophisticated changes on the put smaller gearboxes in there if we on rivers for operating locations, the years, says Schmidt. “It’s a little ambi- high-workload circumstances,” the road map states. EASA ground and in the air—and quickly,” European Transport had higher-speed driveshafts in the company says high performance with tious, but it is a very simple aircraft,” identifies icing detection as another potential application. Commissioner Adina Valean said at the report’s unveiling. wing, but we wanted to stick with our low noise is critical to its business he adds. c After talking to “major players,” including Airbus, EASA “AI can be a key ally in pursuit of this goal.” c

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 53 SPACE > NASA Moon contract plans p. 56 SLS cost overrun p. 57 SpaceX’s push for speed p. 58 Space Force ups the ante p. 62

RSGS plans to demonstrate ren- Servicing in Space dezvous, inspection, repair, recon- figuration, refueling and relocation of a cooperating GEO satellite. “The > DARPA TO SUPPLY ROBOTIC PAYLOAD FOR MRV SERVICER new robotics technology on this mission advances our vision to build a > MRV WILL BUILD ON NORTHROP’S LIFE-EXTENSION MEV fleet of satellite-servicing vehicles that provide customers with a va - Graham Warwick and Jen DiMascio Washington riety of options to select the type of life-extension or in-orbit repairs they ard on the heels of its first Mis- Northrop’s first MEV docked with need,” says Tom Wilson, president of sion Extension Vehicle (MEV) Intelsat’s IS-901 satellite just out- SpaceLogistics. Hdocking with a client satellite in side GEO on Feb. 25. Once attached, Northrop and Intelsat hailed the au- geostationary orbit, Northrop Grum- MEV-1 took over position and atti- tonomous docking of MEV-1 with IS- man subsidiary SpaceLogistics has tude control of the satellite and is 901 as “historic.” After launch by Pro- signed on as DARPA’s commercial part- now moving it back to GEO, where ton rocket in October from Baikonur, ner for the Robotic Servicing of Geosyn- it will resume service. Kazakhstan, the servicing spacecraft chronous Satellites (RSGS) program. A second servicer, MEV-2, is to used its electric propulsion to raise The role became available in Janu- be launched this year to dock with a its orbit, while IS-901 was moved to ary 2019, when Maxar Technologies’ second Intelsat satellite in GEO. On a graveyard orbit 300 km above GEO. subsidiary SSL withdrew as DARPA’s completion of their initial five-year On Feb. 1, the MEV-1 arrived in commercial partner, citing financial missions, MEV-1 and -2 will undock the same orbit as IS-901 and began pressures. and are expected to provide life-ex- maneuvering to rendezvous and Under the agreement, DARPA tension services to other satellites for dock with the satellite. The servicing will provide the robotics payload for spacecraft began a series of approach SpaceLogistics’ Mission Robotic Ve- DARPA will provide the robotics maneuvers during which Northrop hicle (MRV), already planned as its payload for Northrop Grumman’s tested and tuned the visual, infrared next step in satellite servicing after MRV satellite-servicing vehicle. and lidar sensors used for rendezvous and docking. By Feb. 24, the distance between MEV-1 and IS-901 had been reduced to 80 m (260 ft.), and in the early hours of Feb. 25, the spacecraft ap - proached its final waypoint. There, it awaited permission from ground control to proceed, says Joe Anderson, vice president of operations and business development for SpaceLogistics. Mission control gave the command to dock and MEV-1 autonomously in- serted its docking probe into the nozzle and through the throat of IS-901’s liquid apogee engine. The probe deployed a capture mechanism and then retracted, pulling stanchions on the servicer up against the satellite’s

NORTHROP GRUMMAN launch adapter ring and securing the spacecraft together. the MEV. The company will provide another 10 years, SpaceLogistics says. The servicing spacecraft then took the spacecraft bus and will launch and Meanwhile, Northrop has begun control of IS-901’s position and atti- operate the MRV during its on-or- development of the Mission Extension tude, reorienting the satellite back bit demonstration for DARPA, then Pod (MEP), a smaller and less expen- toward Earth within a few seconds, continue to own and operate the ro- sive propulsion module that the MRV Anderson says. The MEV-1’s pro - botic servicer in geostationary orbit will attach to a client spacecraft. The pulsion system is now moving the (GEO)—providing services to com- MEP performs orbital control only for combined spacecraft back to geosyn- mercial and government customers. up to five years but remains attached chronous orbit, where it is expected The MRV bus will leverage the permanently to the satellite. to resume customer service by late MEV, which is designed to attach it- The DARPA-supplied payload for April or early May, says Intelsat CEO self to a client satellite and extend its the MRV, developed and integrated by Stephen Spengler. operational life in GEO by up to five the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Northrop declines to reveal the cost years. The MEV, in turn, is based on comprises two dexterous robotic ma- of MEV-1, but IS-901 had only months Northrop Grumman’s GEOStar com- nipulator arms along with multiple sen- of fuel remaining and Intelsat “saw a mercial satellite bus. sors and several interchangeable tools. solid business case to use the service

54 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE > NASA Moon contract plans p. 56 SLS cost overrun p. 57 SpaceX’s push for speed p. 58 Space Force ups the ante p. 62

RSGS plans to demonstrate ren- to extend the customer service life of simulated,” says Jean-Luc Froeliger, that are at end-of-life—or given up for Servicing in Space dezvous, inspection, repair, recon- IS-901 for another five years,” Spengler vice president of space systems engi- dead—and finding ways to reuse them, figuration, refueling and relocation says. “The economics made sense for neering and operations at Intelsat. maybe in different ways,” he says. of a cooperating GEO satellite. “The us in terms of revenues generated and Due to the low transients, during Satellite manufacturer Airbus is > DARPA TO SUPPLY ROBOTIC PAYLOAD FOR MRV SERVICER new robotics technology on this mis- capital investment deferred.” the next mission the satellite will not less certain of the value. “We had sion advances our vision to build a be moved to graveyard orbit for its our own activity, which we called the > MRV WILL BUILD ON NORTHROP’S LIFE-EXTENSION MEV fleet of satellite-servicing vehicles docking with MEV-2. It will instead SpaceTug. We stopped it at the pre- that provide customers with a va - remain in its operational GEO loca- liminary design review at the end of Graham Warwick and Jen DiMascio Washington riety of options to select the type of tion providing uninterrupted service 2018. The technology was feasible, but life-extension or in-orbit repairs they to customers, he says. we had significant questions about the ard on the heels of its first Mis- Northrop’s first MEV docked with need,” says Tom Wilson, president of business case,” Oliver Juckenhoefel, sion Extension Vehicle (MEV) Intelsat’s IS-901 satellite just out- SpaceLogistics. The docking probe on Northrop’s Airbus senior vice president of on- Hdocking with a client satellite in side GEO on Feb. 25. Once attached, Northrop and Intelsat hailed the au- MEV-1 captured Intelsat 901 via its orbit services and exploration, told geostationary orbit, Northrop Grum- MEV-1 took over position and atti- tonomous docking of MEV-1 with IS- liquid apogee engine nozzle. reporters at the Satellite 2020 show. man subsidiary SpaceLogistics has tude control of the satellite and is 901 as “historic.” After launch by Pro- “In 2017, when we started these signed on as DARPA’s commercial part- now moving it back to GEO, where ton rocket in October from Baikonur, The feat has excited at least one initiatives, there was so much confu- ner for the Robotic Servicing of Geosyn- it will resume service. Kazakhstan, the servicing spacecraft potential customer: the U.S. Defense sion in the market. Companies were chronous Satellites (RSGS) program. A second servicer, MEV-2, is to used its electric propulsion to raise Department. “To take a satellite that interested in temporarily prolonging The role became available in Janu- be launched this year to dock with a its orbit, while IS-901 was moved to was at end-of-life and have another the life of satellites to avoid having to ary 2019, when Maxar Technologies’ second Intelsat satellite in GEO. On a graveyard orbit 300 km above GEO. satellite take control of it and give it make an investment decision,” he says. subsidiary SSL withdrew as DARPA’s completion of their initial five-year On Feb. 1, the MEV-1 arrived in new life—that has opened up a lot of “We don’t know whether there will commercial partner, citing financial missions, MEV-1 and -2 will undock the same orbit as IS-901 and began NORTHROP GRUMMAN thinking for us,” says John London, be a market or not. Northrop seems pressures. and are expected to provide life-ex- maneuvering to rendezvous and Services were shut down, and IS- chief engineer for space and strategic to be convinced, and I like that very Under the agreement, DARPA tension services to other satellites for dock with the satellite. The servicing 901 was moved to graveyard orbit as systems at U.S. Army Space and Mis- much. We are not investing our own will provide the robotics payload for spacecraft began a series of approach a safety precaution before the rendez- sile Defense Command. money because we don’t see a com- SpaceLogistics’ Mission Robotic Ve- DARPA will provide the robotics maneuvers during which Northrop vous with MEV-1, but the transient ef- “We are now looking at ways that mercial market, but we believe we hicle (MRV), already planned as its payload for Northrop Grumman’s tested and tuned the visual, infrared fects observed during docking of the we can repurpose not just communi- need to be prepared,” Juckenhoefel next step in satellite servicing after MRV satellite-servicing vehicle. and lidar sensors used for rendezvous two spacecraft were “much less than cation satellites but other satellites says. c and docking. By Feb. 24, the distance between MEV-1 and IS-901 had been reduced to 80 m (260 ft.), and in the early hours of Feb. 25, the spacecraft ap - proached its final waypoint. There, it awaited permission from ground control to proceed, says Joe Anderson, vice president of operations and business development for SpaceLogistics. Mission control gave the command to dock and MEV-1 autonomously in- Fleet Discovery Military serted its docking probe into the nozzle and through the throat of IS-901’s liquid apogee engine. The probe deployed a capture mechanism and Discover Opportunity with Unparalleled then retracted, pulling stanchions on the servicer up against the satellite’s Tracking of Global Military Fleets

NORTHROP GRUMMAN launch adapter ring and securing the spacecraft together. Aviation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery Military Edition simplifi es the MEV. The company will provide another 10 years, SpaceLogistics says. The servicing spacecraft then took tracking global military aircraft and engines — piloted and unpiloted, fi xed wing the spacecraft bus and will launch and Meanwhile, Northrop has begun control of IS-901’s position and atti- and rotary — so you can discover new opportunities to grow your business. operate the MRV during its on-or- development of the Mission Extension tude, reorienting the satellite back ● Featuring over 70,000 aircraft and 110,000 engines in service with bit demonstration for DARPA, then Pod (MEP), a smaller and less expen- toward Earth within a few seconds, more than 400 military operators. continue to own and operate the ro- sive propulsion module that the MRV Anderson says. The MEV-1’s pro - ● botic servicer in geostationary orbit will attach to a client spacecraft. The pulsion system is now moving the Searchable and ﬁ lterable by aircraft, engine, category, mission, lift type, (GEO)—providing services to com- MEP performs orbital control only for combined spacecraft back to geosyn- weight class and more. mercial and government customers. up to five years but remains attached chronous orbit, where it is expected See for yourself how Fleet Discovery Military can help you track aircraft and The MRV bus will leverage the permanently to the satellite. to resume customer service by late engines so you never miss a business opportunity. MEV, which is designed to attach it- The DARPA-supplied payload for April or early May, says Intelsat CEO self to a client satellite and extend its the MRV, developed and integrated by Stephen Spengler. operational life in GEO by up to five the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Northrop declines to reveal the cost To learn more, go to aviationweek.com/FDMilitary years. The MEV, in turn, is based on comprises two dexterous robotic ma- of MEV-1, but IS-901 had only months Or call: Anne McMahon +1 646 291 6353 | Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 Northrop Grumman’s GEOStar com- nipulator arms along with multiple sen- of fuel remaining and Intelsat “saw a mercial satellite bus. sors and several interchangeable tools. solid business case to use the service

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BUILDING ARTEMIS > NASA SPEEDING UP PROCUREMENT PROCESSES

> ALTERNATIVE CONTRACTING METHODS TAPPED FOR MOON PLAN

> LUNAR POWER AND PROPULSION ELEMENT CONTRACT SIGNED IN HOURS

Irene Klotz Washington Maxar is building the Lunar Gateway hether or not NASA makes its 2024 deadline for land- power and propulsion element under ing astronauts on the Moon remains to be seen, but an unusual partnership arrangement with NASA. the expedited schedule, ordered by President Donald WTrump, already has made an impact in the key but Once commercial capabilities were understated realm of government contracting. demonstrated, the agency purchased flight services from SpaceX and NASA originally targeted 2028 for Gold, an attorney and business devel- Northrop Grumman for station resup- its first crewed Moon landing since opment guru who chaired the NASA ply runs, with a third vendor, Sierra the Apollo 17 mission in 1972. Prior to Advisory Council Regulatory and Nevada, slated to begin flying cargo in landing astronauts, the agency plans Policy Committee until joining the 2021. SpaceX and Boeing are following to assemble a small outpost in lunar agency in December. a similar path toward crewed flights. orbit, beginning with a commercially “Without a date, without that goal, For the deep-space Artemis initia- procured power and propulsion ele- procurements can lag. There’s less pres- tive, NASA is taking its alternative con- ment (PPE). sure, priority and emphasis to move tracting methodologies into uncharted The PPE competition was under- forward,” says Gold, who serves as the terrain. The PPE, for example, will be way when the Trump administration acting associate administrator for inter- developed, launched, owned and oper- in March 2019 ordered NASA to shave national and interagency relations. ated by Maxar for a one-year demon- four years off the schedule to land as- NASA has always been ahead of the stration period, then either leased or tronauts on the Moon, under a pro- curve when it comes to government purchased by NASA to become part of gram now known as Artemis. procurement methods. the lunar-orbiting Gateway. Two months later, on May 23, NASA “The Space Act Agreement (SAA) In late March or April, NASA ex- selected Maxar Technologies to pro- vehicle—the original Other Transac- pects to award Artemis cargo flight vide the PPE—and signed the con- tion Authority—was developed explic- service contracts. Also pending are tract the same day. “It was only a few itly and originally for NASA because study contracts for commercially pro- hours between notification and receipt we simply didn’t know what we’d be vided human lunar landing systems. of the fully executed contract,” says Al dealing with in space,” Gold tells Avi- The elements of the Artemis pro- Tadros, Maxar vice president of Space ation Week. “And therefore the gov- gram, primarily based on technical Infrastructure and Civil Space. ernment deemed it necessary for the proposals and business plans offered in Typically, U.S. government contracts agency to have an inherently flexible response to Broad Agency Announce- with the complexity and value of the procurement vehicle.” ments (BAA), will be integrated by $375 million PPE agreement take a Facing the end of the space shuttle NASA following evaluations and se- few months to negotiate and finalize, program, NASA turned to SAAs to lections of industry partners. he adds. woo companies first to invest in devel- Under the umbrella of NASA’s Next- Having the 2024 deadline has been oping cargo transports to the Interna- STEP (Space Technologies for Explo- extremely important from a pro - tional Space Station and later to work ration Partnerships) program, the curement perspective, notes Michael on space taxis to ferry astronauts. agency has issued BAAs for two dozen

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NASA CONCEPT types of services, spacecraft or studies, thinking. It can synthesize both.” report released March 10. including: the PPE; Human Landing Prescriptive solicitations have their SLS and Orion are being developed System; trash compacting; Earth-orbit- place, but Gold notes, “It’s interesting under cost-plus-award-fee agreements ing, free-flying platforms; deep-space and healthy for NASA to be looking at held by prime contractors Boeing and habitats; in-situ resource utilization; the different arrows it has in its quiver Lockheed Martin, respectively. and space communication and naviga- for procurement and using the right Despite cost overruns and program BUILDING tion networks, among others. tool for the job.” delays, the agency is steadfast in its “The BAA is extraordinarily import- The key is to match the right over- support of the SLS and Orion, argu- ant because it allows private sector en- sight, incentives, contract structure, ing that it is the only system with the tities to suggest creative ways to meet payment plan and testing plan, says lift capacity and maturity to meet the ARTEMIS government objectives and goals and Douglas Loverro, NASA associate 2024 deadline for landing astronauts [it] avoids making the government en- administrator for Human Exploration on the Moon. > NASA SPEEDING UP tirely prescriptive in terms of what it and Operations. NASA also is unflagging in its long- PROCUREMENT PROCESSES may need or want,” Gold says. “You have to look at all of the ele- term commitment to SLS and Ori- “When the government asks for spe- ments that make up the acquisition on, though the agency is watching a ALTERNATIVE CONTRACTING cific goals or objectives—rather than strategy . . . and marry those together high-profile, privately funded effort > saying how it needs to get there—you to create a tight web that ensures suc- by SpaceX to develop a Mars-class METHODS TAPPED FOR MOON PLAN can often obtain some very creative, cess,” Loverro says. “I’ve been doing reusable transportation system called low-cost ideas that actually enhance government contracting for 40 years, Starship. Blue Origin also has plans > LUNAR POWER AND PROPULSION safety, which perhaps those in govern- and I have used every form of con- for a super-heavy reusable lifter called ELEMENT CONTRACT SIGNED IN HOURS ment wouldn’t have thought of. tract. No kind of contract is immune New Armstrong. “Additionally, there is inherent flex- from errors.” SLS and Orion are expected to debut ibility to the BAA process that allows NASA took a traditional contract- in mid-to-late 2021 with an uncrewed the government to synthesize feedback ing approach to develop the Space flight test around the Moon. That mis- Irene Klotz Washington Maxar is building the Lunar Gateway it gets from companies and adopt what Launch System (SLS) rocket, Orion sion would set the stage for a crewed power and propulsion element under will be the best approach,” Gold says. capsule and related ground support lunar flyby in 2022-23 and a crewed hether or not NASA makes its 2024 deadline for land- “That may be something that the gov- systems, a project that could consume landing on the surface of the Moon ing astronauts on the Moon remains to be seen, but an unusual partnership arrangement ernment wasn’t initially thinking or $50 billion by 2024, the NASA Office during the third SLS-Orion flight, pos- with NASA. c the expedited schedule, ordered by President Donald that the private sector wasn’t initially of the Inspector General wrote in a sibly in 2024. Trump, already has made an impact in the key but Once commercial capabilities were W understated realm of government contracting. demonstrated, the agency purchased flight services from SpaceX and SLS Busts Its Budget—Again the project’s budget. The accounting maneuver temporarily NASA originally targeted 2028 for Gold, an attorney and business devel- Northrop Grumman for station resup- masked the fact that the SLS was more than 30% over bud- Irene Klotz Washington its first crewed Moon landing since opment guru who chaired the NASA ply runs, with a third vendor, Sierra get, the level that mandates congressional notification and a the Apollo 17 mission in 1972. Prior to Advisory Council Regulatory and Nevada, slated to begin flying cargo in THE COST OF NASA’S SPACE LAUNCH SYSTEM (SLS) program rebaselining, the OIG audit shows. landing astronauts, the agency plans Policy Committee until joining the 2021. SpaceX and Boeing are following rocket continues to soar, with new estimates reaching more Another $2 billion in cost overruns are due to technical prob- to assemble a small outpost in lunar agency in December. a similar path toward crewed flights. orbit, beginning with a commercially “Without a date, without that goal, For the deep-space Artemis initia- than $18 billion before the booster’s debut in 2021 and a price lems Boeing encountered building the SLS core stage, issues procured power and propulsion ele- procurements can lag. There’s less pres- tive, NASA is taking its alternative con- tag of nearly $23 billion if a crewed flight test slips to 2023. with the propellant liner used in the Northrop Grumman-built ment (PPE). sure, priority and emphasis to move tracting methodologies into uncharted So concludes NASA Inspector General Paul Martin, solid rocket boosters and development of new RS-25 engine The PPE competition was under- forward,” says Gold, who serves as the terrain. The PPE, for example, will be whose office flagged the SLS program on March 10 for controllers by Aerojet Rocketdyne, the audit shows. way when the Trump administration acting associate administrator for inter- developed, launched, owned and oper- exceeding its Agency Baseline Commitment (ABC)—the As of December 2019, NASA had obligated $14.8 billion to in March 2019 ordered NASA to shave national and interagency relations. ated by Maxar for a one-year demon- cost and schedule commitment to Congress against the SLS program and was expected to spend a total of $17.4 four years off the schedule to land as- NASA has always been ahead of the stration period, then either leased or which a program is measured—by at least 33% on Sept. billion if the Artemis-1 launch occurs in November, the OIG tronauts on the Moon, under a pro- curve when it comes to government purchased by NASA to become part of gram now known as Artemis. procurement methods. the lunar-orbiting Gateway. 30, the end of fiscal 2019. said. The figures include preparations for the next two Artemis Two months later, on May 23, NASA “The Space Act Agreement (SAA) In late March or April, NASA ex- The SLS is likely to surpass its congressionally approved missions, new engine development and improved boosters. selected Maxar Technologies to pro- vehicle—the original Other Transac- pects to award Artemis cargo flight budget by 43% if the rocket’s first flight is postponed be- However, in January, NASA revised the timeline and now ex- vide the PPE—and signed the con- tion Authority—was developed explic- service contracts. Also pending are yond November, which is all but official. NASA is expected pects the Artemis-1 launch to slip to spring 2021, which would tract the same day. “It was only a few itly and originally for NASA because study contracts for commercially pro- to announce a new target launch date of mid-to-late 2021 cause SLS program costs to rise to $18.3 billion, the report hours between notification and receipt we simply didn’t know what we’d be vided human lunar landing systems. for Artemis-1, an uncrewed trial run of the SLS-launched says. If Artemis-2, a crewed flight around the Moon, slips to of the fully executed contract,” says Al dealing with in space,” Gold tells Avi- The elements of the Artemis pro- Orion capsule around the Moon. 2023, program costs would climb to approximately $22.8 billion. Tadros, Maxar vice president of Space ation Week. “And therefore the gov- gram, primarily based on technical Infrastructure and Civil Space. ernment deemed it necessary for the proposals and business plans offered in Combined with the Orion capsule and ground support NASA initially planned to launch the first SLS mission by Typically, U.S. government contracts agency to have an inherently flexible response to Broad Agency Announce- systems, NASA could spend $50 billion on the Artemis lu- the end of 2019, but the program was delayed primarily by with the complexity and value of the procurement vehicle.” ments (BAA), will be integrated by nar exploration initiative by the time astronauts land on the “management, technical and infrastructure issues driven $375 million PPE agreement take a Facing the end of the space shuttle NASA following evaluations and se- Moon in 2024, as mandated by President Donald Trump, mostly by Boeing’s poor performance,” the OIG said in an few months to negotiate and finalize, program, NASA turned to SAAs to lections of industry partners. the Office of Inspector General (OIG) audit shows. October 2018 audit. he adds. woo companies first to invest in devel- Under the umbrella of NASA’s Next- Part of the SLS overrun is due to NASA removing from The new audit says contractor performance has im- Having the 2024 deadline has been oping cargo transports to the Interna- STEP (Space Technologies for Explo- the program work it said was not tied to the first launch of proved but NASA is still struggling to manage SLS program extremely important from a pro - tional Space Station and later to work ration Partnerships) program, the c curement perspective, notes Michael on space taxis to ferry astronauts. agency has issued BAAs for two dozen the SLS, though it kept $889 million allotted for that work in costs and schedule.

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> FALCON ROCKETS ARE SOLE HERITAGE OFFERING A SpaceX Falcon Heavy lifted off on June 25, 2019, on the STP-2 mission > ULA BUSINESS BASED ON WINNING ITS BID for the U.S. Air Force. to end dependence on Russian rock- Irene Klotz Promontory, Utah, and Washington et engines for national security space launches, reduce launch costs and nited Launch Alliance (ULA) CEO Tory Bruno is keen spur competition for current and future national security space launches. on competition, even if that means losing a government Unlike its competitors, ULA’s busi- contract every now and then, as happened in February ness plan rests on winning a Phase 2 when NASA chose a SpaceX Falcon Heavy to launch a award. “We have an entire business U plan that presumes we are going to win science probe to the metal asteroid Psyche in 2022 for $117 million. Phase 2,” Bruno said during a March 10 media roundtable at the Satellite ULA had offered Psyche mission curity space launch (NSSL) services 2020 conference in Washington. launch services aboard its workhorse through 2027 concludes with the If ULA does not win, he added, Atlas V for an undisclosed price. U.S. Air Force deciding whether to “We’d have to go evaluate that.” “Can’t win them all,” Bruno tells Avi- retain incumbents ULA and SpaceX Based on satellite orders compiled ation Week. “We win about half, but or replace one or both with Northrop by several industry association sur- that’s OK. That’s how competition is Grumman and/or Blue Origin. veys, Bruno figures there is enough supposed to work. The Air Force Space and Missile business for two domestic medium- “It’s healthy for the government. It’s Systems Center, in partnership with to-heavy-lift launch service providers, healthy for the industry . . . because the National Reconnaissance Office, and he is confident ULA will be one we try to be as efficient as we can and plans to award firm fixed-price, in- of them. to differentiate ourselves, which ulti- definite-delivery contracts to two do- “There isn’t much rocket science to mately usually results in more value mestic launch service providers for this,” Bruno said. “The launch service for the customer, either in capabilities procurements in fiscal 2020-24, with provider is at the end of a 5-7-year - or in prices,” he adds. work split 60/40%. long chain. It’s going to be about 30-35 Bruno’s mettle is being put to the The NSSL Phase 2 Launch Service launches a year for the next several test. This summer, a heated two-year Procurement (LSP)—the first such years,” he said during a March 11 competition to provide national se- solicitation since 2005—is designed panel session at the conference. “We

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all need about 8-12 launches a year, Toward that end Musk, who also trillion value of the telecommunica- at least, to be a sustainable, viable serves as SpaceX CEO and chief en- tions industry, Musk says. “Starlink is TO THE business. That makes room for four gineer, is focused on developing the not some huge threat to telcos. In fact, [launch service providers]. Starship, a two-stage, fully reusable it will be helpful to telcos because Star- “The Russians will always have transportation system capable of link will serve the hardest-to-serve one—it is state-sponsored—they will placing 110 tons (100 metric tons) into customers that telcos otherwise have make sure. Ariane will always exist, the LEO. By comparison, the 1960s-era problems with,” using landlines or cell- FINISH Europeans will make sure. That leaves single-use Saturn V Moon rocket could phone towers, he adds. two for the U.S. because we want to en- put 154 tons into LEO. Shotwell says that even without sure space access via two providers. So SpaceX is counting on revenue from Starlink, SpaceX is profitable. “Star- that is the right number, and that’s why the Starlink constellation to fast-track link is additive to our business,” she the Air Force will select two very short- Starship development. Flying cargo told reporters during a media round- ly this summer,” Bruno says. and crew to the International Space table in October. “We make money on Station and launching commercial the core business of SpaceX, which is THE SPACEX VIEW and government satellites on the ex- Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and Dragons. SpaceX looks at the launch market pie isting Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy fleet “We could do Starship just on our with a different eye. First, the company can bring in up to $3 billion a year, own operating income, on our reve- expects more than half of its project- Musk said during a March 9 keynote nue, if we were to spread it out over ed 35-38 Falcon launches this year to address at Satellite 2020. time,” she added. “But Elon wants to carry Starlink satellites manufactured, Providing broadband should gen- get things done quickly, and so we’re owned and operated by SpaceX into erate an order of magnitude more spending a lot of money on advancing low Earth orbit (LEO), a project in- revenue, probably about $30 billion Starship and Starlink. SpaceX does not tended to provide global high-speed, a year—a fraction of the current $2.8 need Starlink to be a healthy business.” low-latency internet service. In support of Phase 2, SpaceX has SpaceX’s sixth batch of 60 Starlinks A structural test article of ULA’s unveiled plans for a movable tower at its Falcon launch base at NASA’s reached orbit on March 18, bringing Vulcan rocket underwent fit checks the constellation head count to about Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The 360. When that number doubles, at Cape Canaveral AFS Space Launch 284-ft.-tall gantry features 11 floors and SpaceX expects to be able to provide Complex 41. doors to shield Falcon 9 and Falcon seamless internet coverage Heavy rockets from rain and covering latitudes about 25 wind, while providing a con- > FALCON ROCKETS ARE SOLE HERITAGE OFFERING A SpaceX Falcon Heavy lifted off on deg. north and south of the trolled environment to hoist June 25, 2019, on the STP-2 mission equator. payloads on top of the vehi- ULA BUSINESS BASED ON WINNING ITS BID for the U.S. Air Force. After 24 launches, with cles as they stand vertically > approximately 1,440 Star- at the pad. to end dependence on Russian rock- links in orbit, the network SpaceX currently installs Irene Klotz Promontory, Utah, and Washington et engines for national security space will be capable of full glob- payloads horizontally in- launches, reduce launch costs and al coverage, according to side hangars near its three nited Launch Alliance (ULA) CEO Tory Bruno is keen spur competition for current and fu- SpaceX President and Chief launchpads. Some of the ture national security space launches. Operating Officer Gwynne national security missions, on competition, even if that means losing a government Unlike its competitors, ULA’s busi- Shotwell. however, require vertical contract every now and then, as happened in February ness plan rests on winning a Phase 2 Ultimately, SpaceX plans integration. SpaceX also is when NASA chose a SpaceX Falcon Heavy to launch a award. “We have an entire business to operate approximately working to qualify a longer U plan that presumes we are going to win 12,000 satellites, with a pos- payload shroud, which like- science probe to the metal asteroid Psyche in 2022 for $117 million. Phase 2,” Bruno said during a March sible expansion to 42,000. wise is required for some 10 media roundtable at the Satellite The company is still work- NSSL missions. ULA had offered Psyche mission curity space launch (NSSL) services 2020 conference in Washington. ing with the International launch services aboard its workhorse through 2027 concludes with the If ULA does not win, he added, Telecommunication Union STARRY-EYED Atlas V for an undisclosed price. U.S. Air Force deciding whether to “We’d have to go evaluate that.” for spectrum allocation and SpaceX’s passion for the “Can’t win them all,” Bruno tells Avi- retain incumbents ULA and SpaceX Based on satellite orders compiled with individual countries Starship, previously known ation Week. “We win about half, but or replace one or both with Northrop by several industry association sur- for permission to transmit as the Big Falcon Rocket, that’s OK. That’s how competition is Grumman and/or Blue Origin. veys, Bruno figures there is enough data to and from non-U.S. caused a rare misstep in the supposed to work. The Air Force Space and Missile business for two domestic medium- territories. company’s quest for U.S. gov- “It’s healthy for the government. It’s Systems Center, in partnership with to-heavy-lift launch service providers, Starlink’s raison d’etre is ernment launch contracts healthy for the industry . . . because the National Reconnaissance Office, and he is confident ULA will be one to bring in enough revenue when it included a small role we try to be as efficient as we can and plans to award firm fixed-price, in- of them. to carry out the space colo- for the megabooster in its to differentiate ourselves, which ulti- definite-delivery contracts to two do- “There isn’t much rocket science to nization dream of tech en- LSP developmental Launch mately usually results in more value mestic launch service providers for this,” Bruno said. “The launch service trepreneur Elon Musk, who Service Agreements (LSA) for the customer, either in capabilities procurements in fiscal 2020-24, with provider is at the end of a 5-7-year - founded SpaceX in 2002 with proposal, a precursor to or in prices,” he adds. work split 60/40%. long chain. It’s going to be about 30-35 the goal of creating technolo- the ongoing competition for Bruno’s mettle is being put to the The NSSL Phase 2 Launch Service launches a year for the next several gies for interplanetary trans- launch services. test. This summer, a heated two-year Procurement (LSP)—the first such years,” he said during a March 11 portation, with a particular In 2018, the Air Force

competition to provide national se- solicitation since 2005—is designed panel session at the conference. “We eye on Mars. ULA awarded three LSA con-

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tracts, collectively worth about $2 bil- Falcon Heavy has flown three times, ent than what a launch vehicle compa- lion, to ULA, Northrop Grumman and all successfully. ny would normally do, which is to pur- Blue Origin to help defray the costs of sue lots of different payload customers. developing launch-system prototypes THE ROCKET THAT SCRUM BUILT We meet that business need for the Air aimed at fulfilling various national se- One company hoping to wrest the Force in a different way.” curity payload delivery requirements. NSSL business away from the in- But the Omega also is a departure SpaceX’s LSA bid included use of cumbents is Northrop Grumman, from Northrop’s current programs, the Starship for launch of some of the which presents a very different view which include the five-segment sol- heaviest payloads and most challeng- of launch market viability. “The Air id-rocket motors for NASA’s SLS, ing missions in 2025 and beyond, a Force’s intent from the beginning is the air-launched Pegasus booster, the scenario the Air Force deemed “high- to make sure that our business case Minotaur and Antares. Northrop used risk.” SpaceX responded in May 2019 didn’t depend on them with large an agile development system called with a federal lawsuit, challenging the numbers of launches,” says Northrop’s scrum—initially developed by teams Air Force’s procurement process. Charlie Precourt, vice president of to write software in sprints—to design The lawsuit is under consideration propulsion systems. and manufacture the Omega. in U.S. District Court for the Central “We’re not a launch vehicle search- “We like to call Omega the rock- District of California. An LSA award ing for lots of different payloads,” he et that scrum built,” says Precourt. was not necessary for companies to adds. “We’re a launch vehicle that is “Scrum is about moving faster, how compete for the LSP Phase 2 program. built on existing manufacturing lines, to innovate to go faster and do more Ironically, iconoclastic SpaceX, facilities and workforce infrastructure.” in less time.” which previously sued the Air Force Northrop’s Phase 2 offering, the Between the May 2019 and Feb - to speed up the breakup of ULA’s Omega, can close its business case ruary 2020 static test firings of the 2006-16 monopoly on national secu- with just 3-4 launches per year, far be- Omega’s first and second stages in rity space launch services, is the only low ULA’s estimate of what it takes to Promontory, Utah, engineers used Phase 2 contender offering an existing sustain a viable medium- to heavy-lift scrum methodologies to apply lessons and certified family of launchers. The launch service program. learned, such as determining what company, which publishes base pricing Northrop is heavily leveraging in- the environments were like inside the on its website, has not disclosed what vestments and existing work for NASA motor and how it behaves when fired, it would charge for NSSL missions, but and the defense community to develop Precourt says. SpaceX is well-known for undercutting the Omega, a family of two-stage, sol- Both static firings were successful, its competition. id-propellant boosters topped with an completing full-scale engine testings Ten years ago, Iridium shopped for Aerojet Rocketdyne RL10 upper stage. planned prior to the Omega’s debut launch services to put its next-gener- ULA also is using an RL10 for the up- launch in 2021. ation network of 75 communications per stage of the Vulcan. However, the May test, during satellites into orbit. It signed with “The core of the Omega rocket is which the Omega’s two 31-ft. solid-pro- SpaceX, which at the time was prepar- in form, fit and function the same as pellant rocket motors were ignited, ing for the first flight of the Falcon 9. a segment of the SLS [Space Launch ended with the booster’s 18-ft.-long SpaceX’s bid for the Iridium Next System] booster,” says Precourt. nozzle breaking apart, a function of launch campaign—which consisted “What we’re doing is a little bit differ- atmospheric conditions during test- of eight flights from January 2017 to January 2019 from Vandenberg AFB in California—was $500 million. “My Northrop Grumman test-fired the second stage of its next price from there was $1.2 billion Omega rocket on Feb. 27 in Utah. to launch the same 75 satellites,” says Iridium CEO Matt Desch. “Thank God for SpaceX . . . . I’m not sure I could have afforded the second-best price.” Six years later, SpaceX broke ULA’s monopoly on the Air Force’s launch business with an $83 million winning bid to fly a GPS 3 satellite, undercutting the government’s cost estimate, based on previous GPS launches by ULA, by about 40%, the Space and Mis- sile Systems Center said at the time. Price and performance may tip the scales in SpaceX’s favor for the up - coming Phase 2 LSP awards. With its March 18 launch, SpaceX has carried out 83 Falcon 9 missions, with one in- flight failure and one accident during a prelaunch static test fire that cost another booster and payload. The

60 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE tracts, collectively worth about $2 bil- Falcon Heavy has flown three times, ent than what a launch vehicle compa- ing and not an issue for certification lion, to ULA, Northrop Grumman and all successfully. ny would normally do, which is to pur- or flight, Northrop says. Blue Origin to help defray the costs of sue lots of different payload customers. “The nozzle was just one part of the developing launch-system prototypes THE ROCKET THAT SCRUM BUILT We meet that business need for the Air design we analyzed. Our engineers aimed at fulfilling various national se- One company hoping to wrest the Force in a different way.” ran in sprints, with the customer as curity payload delivery requirements. NSSL business away from the in- But the Omega also is a departure part of the team, to assess data, an- SpaceX’s LSA bid included use of cumbents is Northrop Grumman, from Northrop’s current programs, chor models and optimize the design,” the Starship for launch of some of the which presents a very different view which include the five-segment sol- says Precourt. “By taking a little extra heaviest payloads and most challeng- of launch market viability. “The Air id-rocket motors for NASA’s SLS, time between the two tests and utiliz- ing missions in 2025 and beyond, a Force’s intent from the beginning is the air-launched Pegasus booster, the ing scrum, we were able to fully test scenario the Air Force deemed “high- to make sure that our business case Minotaur and Antares. Northrop used design improvements without any risk.” SpaceX responded in May 2019 didn’t depend on them with large an agile development system called impact to our launch-readiness date. with a federal lawsuit, challenging the numbers of launches,” says Northrop’s scrum—initially developed by teams We’re deploying scrum more broadly BLUE ORIGIN Air Force’s procurement process. Charlie Precourt, vice president of to write software in sprints—to design across the plant as we go.” The lawsuit is under consideration propulsion systems. and manufacture the Omega. Under terms of Northrop’s $792 in U.S. District Court for the Central “We’re not a launch vehicle search- “We like to call Omega the rock- million LSA agreement, awarded in District of California. An LSA award ing for lots of different payloads,” he et that scrum built,” says Precourt. 2018 for Omega development and cer- Blue Origin’s first payload fairing for the New Glenn rocket was manufactured was not necessary for companies to adds. “We’re a launch vehicle that is “Scrum is about moving faster, how tification work, the company plans to compete for the LSP Phase 2 program. built on existing manufacturing lines, to innovate to go faster and do more conduct two more full-duration static in Florida. Ironically, iconoclastic SpaceX, facilities and workforce infrastructure.” in less time.” tests of the first and second stages af- which previously sued the Air Force Northrop’s Phase 2 offering, the Between the May 2019 and Feb - ter the Omega’s first two flights, which Winning a follow-on Phase 2 con- the normally low-profile company to speed up the breakup of ULA’s Omega, can close its business case ruary 2020 static test firings of the will be used to certify the booster for tract is a high priority for Northrop. displayed videos of the New Glenn’s 2006-16 monopoly on national secu- with just 3-4 launches per year, far be- Omega’s first and second stages in national space security missions. “We’ve been working really hard on newly completed mission control cen- rity space launch services, is the only low ULA’s estimate of what it takes to Promontory, Utah, engineers used Northrop is developing the Omega that,” Precourt tells Aviation Week ter, a first-stage fuel tank, which is the Phase 2 contender offering an existing sustain a viable medium- to heavy-lift scrum methodologies to apply lessons primarily to provide launch services to “Northrop as an entire company is fo- rocket’s largest structure, and the first and certified family of launchers. The launch service program. learned, such as determining what the Air Force, but it is also offering the cused on national security space. completed 23-ft.-long payload fairing. company, which publishes base pricing Northrop is heavily leveraging in- the environments were like inside the rocket commercially. In December, the “We do threat assessment, mission At nearby Cape Canaveral AFS, a on its website, has not disclosed what vestments and existing work for NASA motor and how it behaves when fired, company announced it had a custom- planning, mission control and opera- launch complex for the New Glenn is it would charge for NSSL missions, but and the defense community to develop Precourt says. er for the Omega’s first flight, one of tions, satellite design and manufactur- under construction, with the booster’s SpaceX is well-known for undercutting the Omega, a family of two-stage, sol- Both static firings were successful, two missions required prior to flying ing [and] direct support of information debut expected in late 2021. its competition. id-propellant boosters topped with an completing full-scale engine testings high-value national security payloads. to the warfighter,” he says. “Launch Like SpaceX and Northrop, Blue Or- Ten years ago, Iridium shopped for Aerojet Rocketdyne RL10 upper stage. planned prior to the Omega’s debut The debut mission will carry one is a piece of that full-value stream of igin’s future does not hinge on winning launch services to put its next-gener- ULA also is using an RL10 for the up- launch in 2021. or two Saturn NationSat geosta- delivering to the warfighter, so NSSL a Phase 2 contract. The company won ation network of 75 communications per stage of the Vulcan. However, the May test, during tionary communications satellites. fits right into the DNA of the company. LSA funding, which it says it is using satellites into orbit. It signed with “The core of the Omega rocket is which the Omega’s two 31-ft. solid-pro- Northrop said it is “converging on an We’re really determined to deliver for to cover NSSL certification costs and SpaceX, which at the time was prepar- in form, fit and function the same as pellant rocket motors were ignited, agreement” with a customer for the the Air Force.” program requirements to develop a ing for the first flight of the Falcon 9. a segment of the SLS [Space Launch ended with the booster’s 18-ft.-long Omega’s second flight, which is ex- As to what it will take to dethrone West Coast launch site for polar orbits. SpaceX’s bid for the Iridium Next System] booster,” says Precourt. nozzle breaking apart, a function of pected to launch next summer, says an incumbent, Precourt says it is not Blue Origin has signed New Glenn launch campaign—which consisted “What we’re doing is a little bit differ- atmospheric conditions during test- spokeswoman Jennifer Bowman. that unusual: “It all comes down to launch contracts with at least five cus- of eight flights from January 2017 to who is best-prepared and best meets tomers—Eutelsat, mμ Space Corp. of January 2019 from Vandenberg AFB the need. That’s what we’re working Thailand, Sky Perfect JSAT, OneWeb in California—was $500 million. “My Northrop Grumman test-fired the second stage of its hard to do.” and Telesat—several of which are buy- next price from there was $1.2 billion Omega rocket on Feb. 27 in Utah. ing multiple flights. to launch the same 75 satellites,” says GETTING A TOEHOLD Powered by seven BE-4 engines on Iridium CEO Matt Desch. “Thank God Among the four contenders for the Air its reusable first stage, the New Glenn for SpaceX . . . . I’m not sure I could Force’s launch business, Blue Origin’s is designed to carry nearly 50 tons to have afforded the second-best price.” New Glenn offering may be the lon- LEO. “And that is the smallest orbital Six years later, SpaceX broke ULA’s gest-shot, but even if it does not win a vehicle we are planning to build and monopoly on the Air Force’s launch Phase 2 contract, it fully expects to be launch,” says Clay Mowry, Blue Origin business with an $83 million winning a key part of the team. That is because vice president of sales, marketing and bid to fly a GPS 3 satellite, undercut- the company’s BE-4 engines will pow- customer experience. ting the government’s cost estimate, er the first stages of both ULA’s Vulcan Like SpaceX’s Musk, Bezos aims to based on previous GPS launches by rocket and Blue’s New Glenn. parlay his company’s space transporta- ULA, by about 40%, the Space and Mis- Company founder Jeff Bezos has tion technology into a future that more sile Systems Center said at the time. invested $2.5 billion in the New Glenn, closely resembles the science fiction Price and performance may tip the including a new $200 million, 350,000- novels both men hold dear. Bezos’ vi- scales in SpaceX’s favor for the up - ft.2 factory and office complex in Hunts- sion is for millions of people to be living coming Phase 2 LSP awards. With its ville, Alabama, where BE-4 engines and and working off Earth. March 18 launch, SpaceX has carried the New Glenn’s BE-3U upper stages ULA and Northrop, meanwhile, out 83 Falcon 9 missions, with one in- will be manufactured. seek only to serve the national secu- flight failure and one accident during Blue Origin also is expanding New rity mission. a prelaunch static test fire that cost Glenn manufacturing facilities adjacent The Air Force has never had such another booster and payload. The to Kennedy Space Center. In March, ripe pickings. c NORTHROP GRUMMAN

60 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 61 SPACE

Space Force Ups the Launch Ante The double launch in a single day was planned for two SpaceX liftoffs. With 45TH SPACE FORCE MUST IMPROVE SPACE RANGE INFRASTRUCTURE the Falcon 9’s autonomous flight safety > system, it is easier to reconfigure the > INDUSTRY IS WORKING TO INCORPORATE AN AUTONOMOUS range, providing more flexibility. Auton- FLIGHT SAFETY STANDARD omous flight safety eliminates the need for the command-destruct system that mission flight control officers operate. They make sure the system is encrypt- A Falcon 9 rocket ed and an outside entity cannot destroy carrying a payload a rocket. Ultimately, however, the double launch did not take place. of Starlink satellites A mark of incremental progress in lifted off from Cape being more flexible for launch custom- Canaveral AFS as ers is repurposing frequency-control the first official U.S. vans and using them for telemetry. Space Force launch. Previously, the service placed telemetry antennas all over the range but now can get rid of some of the older infrastructure and work with a mobile version. Schiess says his team is about to accept the first van, and more are in the pipeline. Gen. John Raymond, chief of space operations and head of U.S. Space Command, issued a mandate to equip

AIRMAN 1ST CLASS ZOE THACKER/U.S. AIR FORCE all new rockets with an autonomous Lee Hudson Orlando, Florida flight safety system by 2025. The shift is part of a larger strategy known as he U.S. Space Force is taking strate the importance of a reusable “range of the future,” a program that steps to achieve the previously spaceplane,” Air Force Secretary Bar- will require network infrastructure Tunfathomable goal of launch on bara Barrett says. “Each successive upgrades by 2022. demand for both commercial and mil- mission advances our nation’s space This means contenders in the Na- itary customers. capabilities.” The X-37B Orbital Test tional Security Space Launch compe- The 45th Space Wing is calling the Vehicle conducted on-orbit experi- tition must incorporate the technology new goal “Set the Pace for Space,” Brig. ments for 780 days during its mission, into their rockets, Schiess says. The Gen. Douglas Schiess, 45th Space Wing breaking its own record by remaining Pentagon plans to choose two compa- commander and Eastern Range direc- in orbit for more than two years. nies for the second phase of the Launch tor, told Aviation Week in February The team did not quite meet the Service Procurement in 2020 for mis- during the Air Warfare Symposium. 48-launch mark, but Schiess is unde- sions spanning 2022-26. Four compa- The 45th Space Wing, headquartered terred. Twenty- four launches occurred nies are seeking to win the contracts: at Patrick AFB in Florida oversees the in 2018, and 2019 saw 19 “major opera- Blue Origin, Northrop Grumman, preparation and launch of U.S. gov- tions,” including the X-37B landing, he SpaceX and United Launch Alliance. ernment and commercial satellites says. A direct result of the new specifica- from Cape Canaveral. It is one of five “Some might say, ‘Hey, you’re doing tion is redeploying staff to other teams Air Force space wings assigned to the less than you did the year before.’ But because the mission flight control offi- Space Force beginning Dec. 20 when really, we had a couple of times during cers operating the command-destruct President Donald Trump signed the the year where we demonstrated that system will not be needed once all National Defense Authorization Act 48 capability,” Schiess notes. rockets are outfitted with autonomous for Fiscal Year 2020, which created the In July and August 2019, for exam- flight safety systems. Those personnel new sixth branch of the armed forces. ple, the Air Force launched four times can then work on other projects. His predecessor set a goal of 48 in four weeks, and in December 2019 By 2030, submarine-launched and liftoffs annually by 2020, almost one a there were two launches in the same intercontinental ballistic missiles must week, while leaving a few periods avail- week. In January 2020, Schiess’ team have autonomous flight safety systems, able for range maintenance, Schiess was prepared to launch twice in the according to Raymond’s decree. says. This year, Schiess’ team is prep- same day. Safety engineers at the 45th Space ping for the sixth launch of the X-37B “We want to launch when anybody Wing will still have to certify the rock- from Cape Canaveral AFS. The X-37B needs us to launch, whether it is a na- ets outfitted with autonomous flight is a reusable and unmanned spacecraft tional security payload or a commer- safety systems for launch, Schiess that allows scientists and engineers to cial launch,” he says. Schiess envisions adds, but they can create a template conduct experiments in a long-duration achieving launch on demand by imple- for the same mission type such as car- space environment. menting different scheduling practices go resupply to the International Space “The X-37B continues to demon- and improving infrastructure. Station. c

62 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE

Baltics, Eastern Europe & Russia | 2020 Space Force Ups the Launch Ante The double launch in a single day was planned for two SpaceX liftoffs. With June 2: Welcome Reception June 3-4: Conference & Showcase > 45TH SPACE FORCE MUST IMPROVE SPACE RANGE INFRASTRUCTURE the Falcon 9’s autonomous flight safety system, it is easier to reconfigure the Istanbul, Turkey > INDUSTRY IS WORKING TO INCORPORATE AN AUTONOMOUS range, providing more flexibility. Auton- FLIGHT SAFETY STANDARD omous flight safety eliminates the need for the command-destruct system that EARLY BIRD RATES mission flight control officers operate. REGISTER BY MAY 1 They make sure the system is encrypt- Save $200 A Falcon 9 rocket ed and an outside entity cannot destroy carrying a payload a rocket. Ultimately, however, the dou- Use promotion code ble launch did not take place. of Starlink satellites RUSSIA2020 A mark of incremental progress in save an additional 15% lifted off from Cape being more flexible for launch custom- Canaveral AFS as ers is repurposing frequency-control the first official U.S. vans and using them for telemetry. Special Features Space Force launch. Previously, the service placed telem- Join the region’s largest MRO event etry antennas all over the range but Reception and now can get rid of some of the older for access to local and global suppliers. Dinner June 3 infrastructure and work with a mobile Turkish Technics version. Schiess says his team is about • Sustainability and Climate Change Facility Tour June 4 to accept the first van, and more are in • Predictive Maintenance the pipeline. Gen. John Raymond, chief of space • Airline Case Studies and Insight operations and head of U.S. Space Command, issued a mandate to equip

AIRMAN 1ST CLASS ZOE THACKER/U.S. AIR FORCE all new rockets with an autonomous Lee Hudson Orlando, Florida flight safety system by 2025. The shift is part of a larger strategy known as he U.S. Space Force is taking strate the importance of a reusable “range of the future,” a program that steps to achieve the previously spaceplane,” Air Force Secretary Bar- will require network infrastructure Tunfathomable goal of launch on bara Barrett says. “Each successive upgrades by 2022. demand for both commercial and mil- mission advances our nation’s space This means contenders in the Na- itary customers. capabilities.” The X-37B Orbital Test tional Security Space Launch compe- The 45th Space Wing is calling the Vehicle conducted on-orbit experi- tition must incorporate the technology new goal “Set the Pace for Space,” Brig. ments for 780 days during its mission, into their rockets, Schiess says. The Gen. Douglas Schiess, 45th Space Wing breaking its own record by remaining Pentagon plans to choose two compa- commander and Eastern Range direc- in orbit for more than two years. nies for the second phase of the Launch tor, told Aviation Week in February The team did not quite meet the Service Procurement in 2020 for mis- Who you will meet at MRO BEER Top Ten Industries: during the Air Warfare Symposium. 48-launch mark, but Schiess is unde- sions spanning 2022-26. Four compa- The 45th Space Wing, headquartered terred. Twenty- four launches occurred nies are seeking to win the contracts: 1] Airline Operator 6] Engines/Propulsion/APUs at Patrick AFB in Florida oversees the in 2018, and 2019 saw 19 “major opera- Blue Origin, Northrop Grumman, 2] Distributor/Supplier 7] Engineering preparation and launch of U.S. gov- tions,” including the X-37B landing, he SpaceX and United Launch Alliance. ernment and commercial satellites says. A direct result of the new specifica- 3] Components/Rotables 8] Leasing/Finance Airlines/Leasing from Cape Canaveral. It is one of five “Some might say, ‘Hey, you’re doing tion is redeploying staff to other teams 4] Airframe 9] Contract Maintenance Companies: Air Force space wings assigned to the less than you did the year before.’ But because the mission flight control offi- 5] Third Party Maintenance 10] IT Systems/Software Be our guest and Space Force beginning Dec. 20 when really, we had a couple of times during cers operating the command-destruct position yourself and President Donald Trump signed the the year where we demonstrated that system will not be needed once all National Defense Authorization Act 48 capability,” Schiess notes. rockets are outfitted with autonomous your organization at for Fiscal Year 2020, which created the In July and August 2019, for exam- flight safety systems. Those personnel the heart of MRO! new sixth branch of the armed forces. ple, the Air Force launched four times can then work on other projects. Learn more online. His predecessor set a goal of 48 in four weeks, and in December 2019 By 2030, submarine-launched and liftoffs annually by 2020, almost one a there were two launches in the same intercontinental ballistic missiles must week, while leaving a few periods avail- week. In January 2020, Schiess’ team have autonomous flight safety systems, 44+ 86% 40+ Host Sponsor able for range maintenance, Schiess was prepared to launch twice in the according to Raymond’s decree. Countries Decision Makers Solution& Service says. This year, Schiess’ team is prep- same day. Safety engineers at the 45th Space Represented & Infl uencers Providers ping for the sixth launch of the X-37B “We want to launch when anybody Wing will still have to certify the rock- from Cape Canaveral AFS. The X-37B needs us to launch, whether it is a na- ets outfitted with autonomous flight is a reusable and unmanned spacecraft tional security payload or a commer- safety systems for launch, Schiess that allows scientists and engineers to cial launch,” he says. Schiess envisions adds, but they can create a template conduct experiments in a long-duration achieving launch on demand by imple- for the same mission type such as car- space environment. menting different scheduling practices go resupply to the International Space “The X-37B continues to demon- and improving infrastructure. Station. c To learn more, and to register: mrobeer.aviationweek.com 62 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST CLASSIFIED ADVERTISING

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64 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23 - APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 65 EDITORIAL

This Too Shall Pass MAAR TECHNOLOIES ot long ago, the biggest concern facing commercial has recovered and grown stronger, resuming its long-held aviation was whether Airbus and Boeing could pro- trend of outpacing global economic growth. Nduce enough aircraft to keep up with demand. In- In one way, the disruption to our lives and businesses dustry leaders fretted about how quickly they could ramp caused by the travel restrictions imposed to control the up production and whether the supply chain could keep spread of COVID-19 illustrates the degree to which the pace. Some airlines were equally bullish, with American world has come to rely on air transportation, from en- Airlines CEO Doug Parker proclaiming: “I don’t think we’re abling commerce to connecting families. This is a crisis ever going to lose money again” (see page 16). on an unprecedented scale for aviation, and there are air- After a run of unparalleled and seemingly unstoppable lines and businesses that certainly will not survive. But the prosperity, aviation and aerospace extent of the disruption gives hope have fl own into a perfect storm. The that demand for air transportation temporary shutdown of Boeing’s 737 COMMERCIAL AVIATION IS will return unabated once the re- MAX production line has waylaid strictions are lifted. aerospace suppliers. But that pales A CONNECTIVE TISSUE It is vital for governments, law- in comparison to the impact of the makers and industry leaders to rec- coronavirus pandemic, which fi rst THAT UNDERPINS GLOBAL ognize that aviation will need help crippled a crucial growth engine, getting through such destructive China, and is now decimating air COMMERCE, DRIVES PROSPERITY upheaval. But in some cases, the op- transport markets around the world. tics will invite legitimate criticism. Each day brings a new round of AND SUPPORTS MANY For example, Boeing has returned fl eet groundings, layo s and order nearly $50 billion to its shareholders deferrals or cancellations, which in MILLIONS OF JOBS. over the past fi ve years while invest- the coming months will rip through ing far less. Now it wants taxpayers the manufacturing industry like a to cough up tens of billions for a tornado. A new forecast from Europe projects Airbus will be bailout? U.S. airlines are no better: They have sent 96% of forced to cut planned production nearly in half in 2021 and free cash fl ow to shareholders over the last fi ve years. And may not fully recover before 2027. Boeing is calling on the what about those airlines in Europe that should have been U.S. government to provide at least $60 billion in aid to aero- allowed to die long ago? Will they use this crisis as leverage space manufacturers, U.S. airlines want another $58 billion, for yet another government rescue? airports $10 billion and the maintenance, repair and over- Clearly, there are lessons to be learned from the crisis, haul industry $11 billion. It would not be hyperbole to call and a return to business as usual will not su¥ ce. But in the this the greatest crisis civil aviation has faced since the near term, this is not about partisan politics or competitive dawn of the commercial jet age more than six decades ago. advantage. It is about helping a vital industry survive this But amid such panic, we need to take a deep breath and calamity. Commercial aviation is a connective tissue that remember that this industry has survived many big chal- underpins global commerce, drives prosperity and supports lenges: oil price spikes; the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks; many millions of jobs. Allowing it to wither is not a realistic the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome; and the 2008-09 option. The coming days will be dark, but rest assured the global fi nancial meltdown. Each time commercial aviation industry will recover and once again prosper. c

66 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST EDITORIAL

This Too Shall Pass MAAR TECHNOLOIES ot long ago, the biggest concern facing commercial has recovered and grown stronger, resuming its long-held aviation was whether Airbus and Boeing could pro- trend of outpacing global economic growth. Nduce enough aircraft to keep up with demand. In- In one way, the disruption to our lives and businesses dustry leaders fretted about how quickly they could ramp caused by the travel restrictions imposed to control the up production and whether the supply chain could keep spread of COVID-19 illustrates the degree to which the pace. Some airlines were equally bullish, with American world has come to rely on air transportation, from en- Airlines CEO Doug Parker proclaiming: “I don’t think we’re abling commerce to connecting families. This is a crisis ever going to lose money again” (see page 16). on an unprecedented scale for aviation, and there are air- After a run of unparalleled and seemingly unstoppable lines and businesses that certainly will not survive. But the prosperity, aviation and aerospace extent of the disruption gives hope have fl own into a perfect storm. The that demand for air transportation temporary shutdown of Boeing’s 737 COMMERCIAL AVIATION IS will return unabated once the re- MAX production line has waylaid strictions are lifted. aerospace suppliers. But that pales A CONNECTIVE TISSUE It is vital for governments, law- in comparison to the impact of the makers and industry leaders to rec- coronavirus pandemic, which fi rst THAT UNDERPINS GLOBAL ognize that aviation will need help crippled a crucial growth engine, getting through such destructive China, and is now decimating air COMMERCE, DRIVES PROSPERITY upheaval. But in some cases, the op- transport markets around the world. tics will invite legitimate criticism. Each day brings a new round of AND SUPPORTS MANY For example, Boeing has returned fl eet groundings, layo s and order nearly $50 billion to its shareholders deferrals or cancellations, which in MILLIONS OF JOBS. over the past fi ve years while invest- the coming months will rip through ing far less. Now it wants taxpayers the manufacturing industry like a to cough up tens of billions for a tornado. A new forecast from Europe projects Airbus will be bailout? U.S. airlines are no better: They have sent 96% of forced to cut planned production nearly in half in 2021 and free cash fl ow to shareholders over the last fi ve years. And may not fully recover before 2027. Boeing is calling on the what about those airlines in Europe that should have been LEADING NETWORKING U.S. government to provide at least $60 billion in aid to aero- allowed to die long ago? Will they use this crisis as leverage space manufacturers, U.S. airlines want another $58 billion, for yet another government rescue? airports $10 billion and the maintenance, repair and over- Clearly, there are lessons to be learned from the crisis, haul industry $11 billion. It would not be hyperbole to call and a return to business as usual will not su¥ ce. But in the this the greatest crisis civil aviation has faced since the near term, this is not about partisan politics or competitive dawn of the commercial jet age more than six decades ago. advantage. It is about helping a vital industry survive this But amid such panic, we need to take a deep breath and calamity. Commercial aviation is a connective tissue that remember that this industry has survived many big chal- underpins global commerce, drives prosperity and supports lenges: oil price spikes; the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks; many millions of jobs. Allowing it to wither is not a realistic the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome; and the 2008-09 option. The coming days will be dark, but rest assured the global fi nancial meltdown. Each time commercial aviation industry will recover and once again prosper. c

66 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 23-APRIL 5, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST THERE IS NO COMPARISON. NO EQUAL. THERE IS ONLY ONE. THE COMMERCIAL JET ENGINE IN A LEAGUE OF ITS OWN.

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