The Iran Problem

Saddam’s Iraq is vicious and nasty, but Tehran may pose an even more formidable challenge.

The Iran Problem

T IS a Persian Gulf nation whose Mohammad Khatami and encourage efforts to acquire Weapons of a reform agenda in Iran. The phrase By Peter Grier Mass Destruction have long wor- “moderate Iranian” remains an oxy- Iried the United States government. moron, decided the Bush team, at For years it has clandestinely sup- least when applied to government ported some of the world’s most vi- officials. Real power in the country cious terrorists, despite repeated pro- remains vested in ruling mullahs, tests from much of the Western world. who of late have taken to shutting Its ruling regime deprives citizens down opposition newspapers and of basic freedoms. State-controlled jailing student demonstrators. media are filled with antiÐIsraeli “Uncompromising, destructive diatribes, in part to distract attention policies have persisted” in Iran de- away from an economy in free fall. spite the efforts of reformists, said Iraq? No, Iran. President George W. Bush in a writ- Even if Saddam Hussein is toppled ten statement relayed into Iran July and replaced by a proÐAmerican re- 12 on Voice of America radio. gime in Iraq, the United States will At the same time, Bush offered still face a large, well-armed adver- support to street protestors and other sary in one of the most volatile re- ordinary Iranians who, he said, con- gions of the world. Twenty-three tinue to agitate for freedom. The years after the Iranian hostage cri- Iranian people have “no better friend sis, Iran’s theocracy remains fully in than the United States,” he said. charge of the country and a fierce Iran’s strategic position in the opponent of much US foreign policy. Middle East is a crossroads of trouble. Iran has harbored fugitive al Qaeda To its east lies Afghanistan, to its members, charge US officials, and west, Iraq. To the north are Turk- is attempting to extend its influence menistan and other unstable nations across its border into western Af- carved out of the former Soviet Union. ghanistan. It is working apace on an To the south, across the Persian Gulf, effort to develop a nuclear weapon— are Saudi Arabia and the smaller oil and, unlike Iraq, Iran’s program has states, whose Sunni version of Islam never been disrupted by UNÐsanc- has long been in conflict with Iran’s tioned weapons inspectors. Despite dominant Shiite Muslims. its long, bitter war with Iraq in the Iran is big—easily three times 1980s, Iran has criticized US efforts Iraq’s size, with about three times as to oust Saddam—perhaps because many people. Known as Persia until some in Tehran fear they might be 1935, it is also nonÐArab. As such it next on Washington’s list. has traditionally been something of an outsider in the region, different The Real Power from Egypt, Iraq, Syria, and other Recently, the Bush Administra- regional powers in both ethnicity and tion pulled the plug on a five-year religious tradition. US effort to work with President Its status as a Middle Eastern state

62 AIR FORCE Magazine / December 2002 AP photo/Jerome Delay

that stands somewhat aloof from its promised a more muscular foreign The current Iranian president may neighbors has long made it attrac- policy. well want to make Iran more demo- tive to the United States and other Reagan had his own problems with cratic and free, but at the present he Western powers as a potential ally. Iran—namely, the Iran–contra affair, does not appear to be making any “Potential” is the key word, how- in which the proceeds from arms headway. ever. The history of USÐIranian re- sales to Tehran were to help fund “The unelected hard-liners have lations has seldom run smoothly. contra rebels in Nicaragua. In one of consistently been able to checkmate In 1953, the CIA conspired with the most bizarre episodes in US dip- reformists and maintain hard-line Britain to overthrow Iran’s elected lomatic history, American officials rule,” said Zalmay Khalilzad, Na- Prime Minister, Mohammad Mos- arrived in Tehran for secret meet- tional Security Council senior direc- sadegh, due to worries that he would ings, proudly bearing a cake baked tor for Southwest Asia, the Near East, nationalize Iran’s oil industry. In the in the shape of a key. This was meant and North Africa and special envoy short run, the coup was successful, to symbolize the “opening” of a new to Afghanistan, in a speech on Iran but it provided antiÐUS Iranians with relationship with Iranians purport- policy given Aug. 2. a grievance that would prove highly edly more moderate than the nation’s The ruling clerics have shut down damaging over the long run. And the ruling mullahs. more than 70 newspapers in the past man the coup empowered, Shah Mo- Since then, US policy debate con- year and ordered the arrest of dissi- hammad Reza Pahlavi, was no Chur- cerning Iran has generally centered dent intellectuals and parliamentar- chill. He was not even a Sadat. Weak on whether there truly are moderate ians, noted Khalilzad. The former and indecisive, he never quite man- factions in the country and, if there designated successor to the Ayatol- aged to live up to Washington’s idea are, what kind of a relationship to lah, Ayatollah Montazaeri, remains of a regionally influential leader. have with them. Iran is not a dicta- under house arrest for simply ques- Then came the revolution (1977Ð torship like Iraq. There are national tioning some aspects of clerical rule. 79), in which conservative clerics elections for a president and a uni- Nine women were registered to run crushed Westernizing liberals and cameral legislature. Ultimate power, for president last year, but none were turned Iran into an Islamic state. The however, continues to reside with allowed to do so. Courts continue to hostage crisis caused by the Novem- religious leaders. The chief of state place limits on participation by wo- ber 1979 seizure of the US Embassy is Leader of the Islamic Revolution men in public life. in Tehran by militant students played Ayatollah Ali Hoseini-Khamenei, Meanwhile the Iranian economy a large role in the defeat of President who was appointed to his post (for is dead in the water. Unemployment Jimmy Carter by Ronald Reagan, who life) by a panel of religious elders. is nearly 30 percent, according to

AIR FORCE Magazine / December 2002 63 US government estimates, with in- rean gunboats that US intelligence The army totals around 450,000 flation nearing 30 percent. Per capita believes will be converted into men. Of these, about 125,000 are GNP has been stagnant for years. guided-missile warships. Combined Revolutionary Guards—ideological One out of every four Iranians with with other recent naval and coastal elite units formed after the fall of the a college education works outside defense acquisitions, which range Shah in 1979 to protect Iran’s new the country, according to Khalilzad. from Russian KiloÐclass submarines theocracy. Iran’s inventory of main “I admit that there is a sort of to Chinese Silkworm anti-ship mis- battle tanks stands at roughly 1,100, hopelessness in our society,” said siles, the new boats could help Iran with 1,200 other armored vehicles Iranian President Khatami publicly control important sections of the and more than 2,500 major artillery this summer. Persian Gulf in a crisis—including weapons. It is against this background that the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The army also has about 100 AH- President Bush has branded Iran a Iranian officials also appear to 1J attack helicopters, but the readi- member of the “axis of evil” and a believe that they need to increase the ness of these aircraft is unlikely to nation whose foreign policy goals deterrent value of their forces, given be very high. are inimical to the United States. Iran’s inclusion in President Bush’s At one time Iran’s air force was Administration officials say they axis of evil. This September, Iran’s one of the most highly capable in the are particularly concerned about three defense minister, Rear Adm. Ali developing world. The Shah’s appe- things: Iran’s continued push for Shamkhani, blustered that the United tite for US fighters was such that Weapons of Mass Destruction, its States should think twice before tar- before his ouster he considered chip- support for terrorism in general, and geting his nation. ping in to help pay for development its mixed reaction to US military “It is with a gigantic support of of the F/A-18. action in Afghanistan. the ... well-prepared armed forces Today, Iran has only about 150 “The initial signs of Tehran’s co- and our powerful military capabili- aging USÐbuilt aircraft left. These operation and common cause with ties that Iran will react to any for- include 66 F-4D/Es and 25 F-14-A/ us in Afghanistan are being eclipsed eign violation,” he told Iran’s offi- Bs, which are about 60 percent ser- by Iranian efforts to undermine US cial news agency IRNA. viceable, according to a net assess- influence there,” said Director of Those armed forces have indeed ment drawn up by Cordesman. Iran Central Intelligence George J. Tenet come a long way since the IranÐIraq has long tried to evade the US em- in Senate testimony earlier this year. war. Epic, World War IÐstyle battles bargo on parts for these airplanes by with Saddam destroyed about 60 per- purchasing through third parties. Iran’s Military Buildup cent of Iran’s heavy land weapons, The backbones of the Iranian air In recent years, Iran has been at- according to Western estimates. force today are 24 Su-24 Fencers tempting to build up the strength of Today, with a population of more and 30 MiG-29 Fulcrums. These its conventional military forces. One than 65 million to draw from, Iran SovietÐera aircraft are about 80 per- apparent aim of Iranian command- has about 513,000 men in uniform. cent serviceable, claims Cordesman. ers: an increase in the ability to Another 200,000 to 350,000 are in If Iran acquires a nuclear weapon, project power in its region. the reserves, estimates Center for the Fencers could be used as an Thus, earlier this year, Iran took Strategic and International Studies interim delivery capability, pend- delivery of a shipment of North Ko- expert Anthony H. Cordesman. ing perfection of an adequate bal- listic missile. Iranian units also include 14 RF- 4E and five P-3F reconnaissance aircraft. The air force has a limited aerial refueling capability. Air defense relies mainly on 100 Hawk AP photo/Jerome Delay missiles from the Shah’s era, with a scattering of newer, shorter-range SovietÐ and ChineseÐmade models. Iran’s navy is one of the more capable maritime forces in the region. It has 10 Kaman missile patrol boats and 10 Houdong missile patrol boats—most equipped with C802 anti-ship missiles— along with three missile frigates and two corvettes. Western naval analysts are perhaps most concerned about Iran’s five submarines, which given the con- stricted nature of the waterways in the region could close ship lanes for The Shahab-3, shown here in a “military week” parade in Tehran, has a at least a short period of time. range of about 800 miles. Iranian officials speak openly about seeking a Iran is currently seeking more missile with longer-range capabilities. modern fighters and surface-to-air missiles, such as the Russian S-300

64 AIR FORCE Magazine / December 2002 series, claims Cordesman. It has been unable to modernize key capabilities such as airborne sensors, elec- tronic warfare, command and control, and air defense integration. Overall, “Iran has not ... been able to offset the obsolescence and wear of its overall inventory of armor, ships, and aircraft,” Cordesman told the Senate Foreign Relations Com- mittee in August.

The WMD Issue Iran has for years had an across- the-board program of WMD development. Although it is a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention, it has produced and stockpiled blister, blood, and choking chemical agents, according to US intelligence. It has a biological weapons arsenal and may Iran has about 25 F-14s dating from the Shah’s reign. Third-party be able to indigenously produce purchasing has helped keep some of the Iranian fleet in service, despite enough fissile material for a nuclear the US embargo on replacement parts. weapon by late this decade, says a CIA estimate. Iranian officials have spoken a domestic nuclear infrastructure that like to end this support, hard-liners openly of their desire for missiles ostensibly is designed to support the who hold the reins of power con- with a range beyond that of their civil power plant but in reality, we tinue to thwart any efforts to moder- Shahab-3, which can hit targets up feel, is designed to support nuclear ate these policies,” said the most to 800 miles away. The CIA believes weapons ambitions,” said Marshall recent edition of the State Depart- Iran may flight-test a missile of in- Billingslea, principal deputy assis- ment’s “Patterns of Global Terror- tercontinental capability later this tant defense secretary for special op- ism.” decade. The Iranian military has al- erations and low-intensity conflict, Iraq’s primary contribution to anti– ready deployed unmanned aerial ve- at a Senate hearing this summer. Israeli terror groups, for instance, has hicles, including some configured taken the form of cash payments to for attack, and may be seeking more Why Be Surprised? the families of Palestinian suicide sophisticated such aircraft to serve Nor should the world be sanguine bombers. Iran’s support has been far as a WMD delivery capability. that it still has a few years to head off more substantial. It spends an esti- Assistance from Russia, China, and Iran’s nuclear program. Too often mated $100 million a year on Hez- North Korea that Administration of- predictions of possible proliferation bollah and may even have dispatched ficials have called “sustained coop- have turned out to be too optimistic, Iranian Revolutionary Guards to help eration” may be helping Iran’s WMD Billingslea told Senators. For in- operate some of the group’s heavy work along. The US has long pres- stance, after the first Gulf War, US weaponry in Lebanon. Tehran has sured Russia to cease its help in investigators were shocked to dis- intensified support of Palestinian constructing Iran’s Bushehr nuclear cover that Saddam had been but one rejectionist groups since the begin- power plant, for instance, with little year from completing his own atomic ning of the latest round of IsraeliÐ success. weapon. Palestinian violence, to the point The Bushehr plant was begun in “We keep allowing ourselves [to where it dispatched explosives and 1974 with German help and was be] surprised,” said Billingslea. “We weapons to the Palestinian Authority bombed three times by Iraq during shouldn’t do that.” forces aboard the Karine A freighter, the IranÐIraq war of the midÐ1980s. The US concern about Iran’s weap- which was seized by Israeli authori- Iran says it needs electricity from ons programs is heightened by the ties. Anti–Israeli rhetoric from Iran’s the plant to bolster its energy pro- regime’s continued support for ter- ruling mullahs is virulent: Supreme duction. But Administration officials rorism. In fact, it is arguably Tehran— Leader Khamenei refers to Israel as a say that is unlikely. They point out not Baghdad—that is the terror capi- “cancerous tumor” that must be cut that Iran, a major producer of natu- tal of the Middle East. The US State out. ral gas, is already venting into the Department has judged Iran the Iran has also provided limited sup- atmosphere gas that could produce world’s most active state sponsor of port to terrorist groups in the Gulf, three times as much energy as a terrorist acts, with both Iran’s Is- Africa, Turkey, and Central Asia, BushehrÐsized reactor. lamic Revolutionary Guard Corps according to the State Department. “What’s going on is Iranian recog- and Ministry of Intelligence and Se- And there are still unresolved ques- nition that possessing the Bushehr curity providing planning, funds, and tions of Iranian complicity in the reactor will allow them to argue to weapons. 1996 bombing of the US barracks at have all of the other bits and pieces of “Although some within Iran would the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia.

AIR FORCE Magazine / December 2002 65 battles. Both sides suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties. Iranian AP photo troops were attacked with Iraqi chemical weapons. Iran has sheltered antiÐIraq dissi- dent groups, including some that might participate in the formation of a postÐSaddam government, according to Washington’s plans. And it has actively fostered and funded one such organization—the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, an umbrella group for funda- mentalist Shiites, drawn from Iraq’s south, who oppose Saddam’s rule. On the other hand, Iran remains bitter that much of the world leaned toward Iraq during their midÐ80s conflict. The United States certainly did. And Tehran may well fear that Iran officially supports Afghan President Hamid Karzai but has used its once Saddam is out of the way, the irregular forces in Afghanistan without Karzai’s knowledge or consent. Bush Administration may turn its Above, Revolutionary Guard troops near the IranÐAfghanistan border. eyes on them. Iranian Foreign Min- ister Kamal Kharrazi said in Sep- tember that while his nation would “The Iranian regime’s support for Only after repeated complaints respect any UN resolutions dealing terrorist activities—which have from President Bush and other US with the Iraqi situation, it would not killed at least hundreds of thousands officials did Tehran admit that there participate in any war. Unilateral US of innocent civilians, including was an al Qaeda presence in Iran. action to oust Saddam, Kharrazi said, Americans—is inconsistent with the Finally, it extradited some suspects would set a “dangerous” precedent. desire of the Iranian people for Iran in custody to their country of origin US officials have been publicly to fully join the community of na- and Afghanistan. mum on whether they would try to tions,” said Khalilzad in his August Iran has said it supports Afghan topple the government of another speech. President Hamid Karzai’s govern- evil axis member if their efforts in The US did see some positive de- ment. But it has also sent forces Iraq prove successful. Iran—with a velopments in Iran’s international associated with its Revolutionary relatively modern military and a behavior during Operation Endur- Guards over the border into Afghani- complex, multilayered government ing Freedom. At the beginning of stan and appears to be supporting and civil society—would be much hostilities in Afghanistan, Iranian some regional leaders without Kar- more difficult than Iraq to change officials quietly informed the US that zai’s knowledge or consent. by force. if American warplanes happened to “While Iran’s officials express a Instead, the bottom line of the US go down in Iranian territory their shared interest in a stable govern- policy change toward Iran announced crews would be assisted in accor- ment in Afghanistan, its security this year appears to be that the Bush dance with international conventions. forces appear bent on countering the Administration has given up on Presi- As a committed foe of the Taliban, US presence,” said Tenet earlier this dent Khatami as ineffectual and thus Tehran pledged to close its borders year. “This seeming contradiction in has given up on efforts to influence to al Qaeda attempting to flee over behavior reflects deep-seated suspi- Iran from within. Instead, President the Iranian border. Iran also worked cions among Tehran’s clerics that Bush appeared to be offering his with the US and its allies at the Bonn the United States is committed to support to grassroots groups, such conference in late 2001 to help set encircling and overthrowing them.” as student dissidents, as they push up the Afghan Interim Authority. US military operations in Iraq for change from outside Iran’s exist- could well exacerbate increased ten- ing systems. Aiding al Qaeda sion in the USÐIranian relationship. After all, the support Bush offered But later actions didn’t match On the one hand Iran is, if any- in his statement broadcast into the Iran’s words. Hard-line elements in thing, a more bitter foe of Saddam country was not directed to chimeri- Iran in fact helped al Qaeda terror- Hussein than is the US. The IranÐ cal government moderates but to the ists escape. For months, as Taliban Iraq war of 1980 to 1988 was a grue- Iranian people themselves, as they resistance crumbled, the Iranian gov- some conflict more akin to World “move towards a future defined by ernment did nothing to arrest and War I trench warfare than modern greater freedom.” ■ extradite al Qaeda, according to US officials. Instead, it insisted that no Peter Grier, a Washington editor for the Christian Science Monitor, is a terrorists from Afghanistan were longtime defense correspondent and a contributing editor to Air Force finding their way into Iranian terri- Magazine. His most recent article, “Loggie Power,” appeared in the Novem- tory at all. ber 2002 issue.

66 AIR FORCE Magazine / December 2002