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The Iran Problem

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The Iran Problem Saddam’s Iraq is vicious and nasty, but Tehran may pose an even more formidable challenge. The Iran Problem T IS a Persian Gulf nation whose Mohammad Khatami and encourage efforts to acquire Weapons of a reform agenda in Iran. The phrase By Peter Grier Mass Destruction have long wor- “moderate Iranian” remains an oxy- Iried the United States government. moron, decided the Bush team, at For years it has clandestinely sup- least when applied to government ported some of the world’s most vi- officials. Real power in the country cious terrorists, despite repeated pro- remains vested in ruling mullahs, tests from much of the Western world. who of late have taken to shutting Its ruling regime deprives citizens down opposition newspapers and of basic freedoms. State-controlled jailing student demonstrators. media are filled with anti–Israeli “Uncompromising, destructive diatribes, in part to distract attention policies have persisted” in Iran de- away from an economy in free fall. spite the efforts of reformists, said Iraq? No, Iran. President George W. Bush in a writ- Even if Saddam Hussein is toppled ten statement relayed into Iran July and replaced by a pro–American re- 12 on Voice of America radio. gime in Iraq, the United States will At the same time, Bush offered still face a large, well-armed adver- support to street protestors and other sary in one of the most volatile re- ordinary Iranians who, he said, con- gions of the world. Twenty-three tinue to agitate for freedom. The years after the Iranian hostage cri- Iranian people have “no better friend sis, Iran’s theocracy remains fully in than the United States,” he said. charge of the country and a fierce Iran’s strategic position in the opponent of much US foreign policy. Middle East is a crossroads of trouble. Iran has harbored fugitive al Qaeda To its east lies Afghanistan, to its members, charge US officials, and west, Iraq. To the north are Turk- is attempting to extend its influence menistan and other unstable nations across its border into western Af- carved out of the former Soviet Union. ghanistan. It is working apace on an To the south, across the Persian Gulf, effort to develop a nuclear weapon— are Saudi Arabia and the smaller oil and, unlike Iraq, Iran’s program has states, whose Sunni version of Islam never been disrupted by UN–sanc- has long been in conflict with Iran’s tioned weapons inspectors. Despite dominant Shiite Muslims. its long, bitter war with Iraq in the Iran is big—easily three times 1980s, Iran has criticized US efforts Iraq’s size, with about three times as to oust Saddam—perhaps because many people. Known as Persia until some in Tehran fear they might be 1935, it is also non–Arab. As such it next on Washington’s list. has traditionally been something of an outsider in the region, different The Real Power from Egypt, Iraq, Syria, and other Recently, the Bush Administra- regional powers in both ethnicity and tion pulled the plug on a five-year religious tradition. US effort to work with President Its status as a Middle Eastern state 62 AIR FORCE Magazine / December 2002 AP photo/Jerome Delay that stands somewhat aloof from its promised a more muscular foreign The current Iranian president may neighbors has long made it attrac- policy. well want to make Iran more demo- tive to the United States and other Reagan had his own problems with cratic and free, but at the present he Western powers as a potential ally. Iran—namely, the Iran–contra affair, does not appear to be making any “Potential” is the key word, how- in which the proceeds from arms headway. ever. The history of US–Iranian re- sales to Tehran were to help fund “The unelected hard-liners have lations has seldom run smoothly. contra rebels in Nicaragua. In one of consistently been able to checkmate In 1953, the CIA conspired with the most bizarre episodes in US dip- reformists and maintain hard-line Britain to overthrow Iran’s elected lomatic history, American officials rule,” said Zalmay Khalilzad, Na- Prime Minister, Mohammad Mos- arrived in Tehran for secret meet- tional Security Council senior direc- sadegh, due to worries that he would ings, proudly bearing a cake baked tor for Southwest Asia, the Near East, nationalize Iran’s oil industry. In the in the shape of a key. This was meant and North Africa and special envoy short run, the coup was successful, to symbolize the “opening” of a new to Afghanistan, in a speech on Iran but it provided anti–US Iranians with relationship with Iranians purport- policy given Aug. 2. a grievance that would prove highly edly more moderate than the nation’s The ruling clerics have shut down damaging over the long run. And the ruling mullahs. more than 70 newspapers in the past man the coup empowered, Shah Mo- Since then, US policy debate con- year and ordered the arrest of dissi- hammad Reza Pahlavi, was no Chur- cerning Iran has generally centered dent intellectuals and parliamentar- chill. He was not even a Sadat. Weak on whether there truly are moderate ians, noted Khalilzad. The former and indecisive, he never quite man- factions in the country and, if there designated successor to the Ayatol- aged to live up to Washington’s idea are, what kind of a relationship to lah, Ayatollah Montazaeri, remains of a regionally influential leader. have with them. Iran is not a dicta- under house arrest for simply ques- Then came the revolution (1977– torship like Iraq. There are national tioning some aspects of clerical rule. 79), in which conservative clerics elections for a president and a uni- Nine women were registered to run crushed Westernizing liberals and cameral legislature. Ultimate power, for president last year, but none were turned Iran into an Islamic state. The however, continues to reside with allowed to do so. Courts continue to hostage crisis caused by the Novem- religious leaders. The chief of state place limits on participation by wo- ber 1979 seizure of the US Embassy is Leader of the Islamic Revolution men in public life. in Tehran by militant students played Ayatollah Ali Hoseini-Khamenei, Meanwhile the Iranian economy a large role in the defeat of President who was appointed to his post (for is dead in the water. Unemployment Jimmy Carter by Ronald Reagan, who life) by a panel of religious elders. is nearly 30 percent, according to AIR FORCE Magazine / December 2002 63 US government estimates, with in- rean gunboats that US intelligence The army totals around 450,000 flation nearing 30 percent. Per capita believes will be converted into men. Of these, about 125,000 are GNP has been stagnant for years. guided-missile warships. Combined Revolutionary Guards—ideological One out of every four Iranians with with other recent naval and coastal elite units formed after the fall of the a college education works outside defense acquisitions, which range Shah in 1979 to protect Iran’s new the country, according to Khalilzad. from Russian Kilo–class submarines theocracy. Iran’s inventory of main “I admit that there is a sort of to Chinese Silkworm anti-ship mis- battle tanks stands at roughly 1,100, hopelessness in our society,” said siles, the new boats could help Iran with 1,200 other armored vehicles Iranian President Khatami publicly control important sections of the and more than 2,500 major artillery this summer. Persian Gulf in a crisis—including weapons. It is against this background that the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The army also has about 100 AH- President Bush has branded Iran a Iranian officials also appear to 1J attack helicopters, but the readi- member of the “axis of evil” and a believe that they need to increase the ness of these aircraft is unlikely to nation whose foreign policy goals deterrent value of their forces, given be very high. are inimical to the United States. Iran’s inclusion in President Bush’s At one time Iran’s air force was Administration officials say they axis of evil. This September, Iran’s one of the most highly capable in the are particularly concerned about three defense minister, Rear Adm. Ali developing world. The Shah’s appe- things: Iran’s continued push for Shamkhani, blustered that the United tite for US fighters was such that Weapons of Mass Destruction, its States should think twice before tar- before his ouster he considered chip- support for terrorism in general, and geting his nation. ping in to help pay for development its mixed reaction to US military “It is with a gigantic support of of the F/A-18. action in Afghanistan. the ... well-prepared armed forces Today, Iran has only about 150 “The initial signs of Tehran’s co- and our powerful military capabili- aging US–built aircraft left. These operation and common cause with ties that Iran will react to any for- include 66 F-4D/Es and 25 F-14-A/ us in Afghanistan are being eclipsed eign violation,” he told Iran’s offi- Bs, which are about 60 percent ser- by Iranian efforts to undermine US cial news agency IRNA. viceable, according to a net assess- influence there,” said Director of Those armed forces have indeed ment drawn up by Cordesman. Iran Central Intelligence George J. Tenet come a long way since the Iran–Iraq has long tried to evade the US em- in Senate testimony earlier this year. war. Epic, World War I–style battles bargo on parts for these airplanes by with Saddam destroyed about 60 per- purchasing through third parties.
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