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Trump's Foreign Policies Are Better Than They Seem

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Trump's Foreign Policies Are Better Than They Seem Council Special Report No. 84 April 2019 Trump’s Foreign Policies Are Better Than They Seem Robert D. Blackwill The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government officials, business executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries. Founded in 1921, CFR carries out its mission by maintaining a diverse membership, with special programs to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign policy leaders; convening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in Washington, DC, and other cities where senior government officials, members of Congress, global leaders, and prominent thinkers come together with Council members to discuss and debate major international issues; supporting a Studies Program that fosters independent research, enabling CFR scholars to produce articles, reports, and books and hold roundtables that analyze foreign policy issues and make concrete policy recommendations; publishing Foreign Affairs, the preeminent journal on international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; sponsoring Independent Task Forces that produce reports with both findings and policy prescriptions on the most important foreign policy topics; and providing up-to-date information and analysis about world events and American foreign policy on its website, CFR.org. The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has no affiliation with the U.S. government. All views expressed in its publications and on its website are the sole responsibility of the author or authors. Council Special Reports (CSRs) are concise policy briefs, produced to provide a rapid response to a developing crisis or contribute to the public’s understanding of current policy dilemmas. CSRs are written by individual authors—who may be CFR fellows or acknowledged experts from outside the institution—in consultation with an advisory committee, and are intended to take sixty days from inception to publication. The committee serves as a sounding board and provides feedback on a draft report. It usually meets twice—once before a draft is written and once again when there is a draft for review; however, advisory committee members, unlike Task Force members, are not asked to sign off on the report or to otherwise endorse it. Once published, CSRs are posted on CFR.org. For further information about CFR or this Special Report, please write to the Council on Foreign Relations, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065, or call the Communications office at 212.434.9888. Visit our website, CFR.org. Copyright © 2019 by the Council on Foreign Relations ®, Inc. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in any form beyond the reproduction permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law Act (17 U.S.C. Sections 107 and 108) and excerpts by reviewers for the public press, without express written permission from the Council on Foreign Relations. To submit a letter in response to a Council Special Report for publication on our website, CFR.org, you may send an email to [email protected]. Alternatively, letters may be mailed to us at: Publications Department, Council on Foreign Relations, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065. Letters should include the writer’s name, postal address, and daytime phone number. Letters may be edited for length and clarity, and may be published online. Please do not send attachments. All letters become the property of the Council on Foreign Relations and will not be returned. We regret that, owing to the volume of correspondence, we cannot respond to every letter. This report is printed on paper that is FSC ® Chain-of-Custody Certified by a printer who is certified by BM TRADA North America Inc. CONTENTS iv Foreword vi Acknowledgments 2 Introduction 8 China 18 Climate Change 21 North Korea 27 NATO and European Security 32 Russia 39 Iran 42 Syria 44 Saudi Arabia 47 Israel 49 Afghanistan 54 India 57 Venezuela 59 Trade 65 Conclusion: Grade for Trump’s Overall Foreign Policy 69 Endnotes 104 About the Author Contents iii FOREWORD It is not easy to attempt a fair assessment of President Donald J. Trump’s foreign policy. In part this is because of circumstances, namely that we are just past the halfway mark of his term, which began in January 2017. “Incomplete” is on one level the only appropriate mark. But the difficulty in assessing this president also reflects the style of his foreign policy, including the frequent recourse to social media, the secrecy that has surrounded critical summits, the high turnover of senior-level officials, and the gaps that often appear between the posi- tions of these aides and the president. It can be difficult to keep up and to be confident as to just what foreign policy is being implemented. In this new Council Special Report, however, Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy Robert D. Blackwill attempts just such an assessment. He goes about it the right way, evaluating President Trump’s foreign policy not against his and his administration’s rhetoric but against its impact on the U.S. national interest. Blackwill examines President Trump’s actions in important policy areas, including ties with allies, relations with China and Russia, and policies toward the Middle East, North Korea, Venezuela, trade, and climate change. He then grades each of the president’s major foreign policies and offers an overall assessment of the quality of the Trump administration’s foreign policy halfway through its first term. Blackwill argues that even though many of President Trump’s actions have been impetuous and the president oversees a chaotic and often dysfunctional policymaking process, some of his individual for- eign policies are better than his critics give him credit for. Blackwill points to what he sees as a much-needed toughening of U.S. policy toward China, a justified U.S. withdrawal from Syria and disengage- ment from Afghanistan, and closer relations with India, Israel, and iv Foreword Saudi Arabia. History teaches us, according to Blackwill, that “flawed individuals and policy processes sometimes produce successful results.” Like Wagner’s music, he argues, Trump’s foreign policy is better than it sounds. For some readers, I expect Blackwill’s grades will be too low, while for others, his grades will not be low enough. I agree with Blackwill that the president has been right to challenge China on its actions in the trade realm, in what he has done to rally regional and international support against the Nicolas Maduro regime in Venezuela, and in culti- vating closer ties with India. But I would give President Trump a lower grade on how he has handled Iran, North Korea, and Syria. In addition, it is hard to see what the Trump administration has received in exchange for its uncritical embrace of Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Moham- med bin Salman or for moving the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. But these and other differences I have or others will have with Ambassador Blackwill’s assessments overlook the fundamental value of this rigorous study undertaken by an experienced scholar- practitioner. It is the sort of work that is all too rare in this politicized environment we live in and where 280 characters often substitute for in-depth analysis. There is much of value to learn in the pages to follow, and I urge readers to make their way through this paper and come to their own conclusions as to what grade the forty-fifth president deserves so far for his foreign policy. Richard N. Haass President Council on Foreign Relations April 2019 Foreword v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This Council Special Report greatly benefited from the dozens of specific suggestions and valuable improvements by Henry Kissinger, Graham Allison, Hal Brands, Frank Gavin, Philip Zelikow, and Robert Zoellick. I took most of their suggested fixes but, as they will see, not all. I am especially grateful to Dr. Kissinger for his friendship, inspira- tion, and guidance throughout virtually my entire adult life. I also thank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) President Richard N. Haass and Senior Vice President and Director of Studies James M. Lindsay for their review and comments. I appreciate the work of the CFR Publica- tions team, Patricia Lee Dorff, Julie Hersh, Chloe Moffett, and Sumit Poudyal, for editorial contributions. My special thanks go to Theodore Rappleye, my brilliant and inexhaustible research associate, and to his successor, Daniel Clay. Without Ted’s voluminous research, this report would still be an incomplete draft searching for citations. The analysis and conclusions of the report are my responsibility alone. Robert D. Blackwill vi Acknowledgments What is new about the emerging world order is that, for the first time, the United States can neither withdraw from the world nor dominate it. —Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy, 1994 INTRODUCTION President Donald J. Trump’s actions have often been rash, ignorant, and chaotic. He seems sometimes to imagine that he can withdraw from the world and sometimes to think he can dominate it. Yet some of his individual foreign policies are substantially better than his oppo- nents assert.1 It is no wonder that Trump is not given sufficient credit for his for- eign policies. After more than two tumultuous years in office, the pres- ident has disrupted a whole series of conventions in the international system, some of them undoubtedly needed, but adopted few follow-on strategies and little or no implementation.
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