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STRATEGIC APPRAISAL the Changing Role of Information in Warfare STRATEGIC APPRAISAL The Changing Role of Information in Warfare Edited by ZALMAY M. KHALILZAD JOHN P. WHITE Foreword by ANDREW W. MARSHALL R Project AIR FORCE The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under contract F49642-96-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The changing role of information in warfare / Zalmay M. Khalilzad, John P. White, editors. p. cm. “Prepared for the United States Air Force by RAND's Project AIR FORCE.” “MR-1016-AF.” Includes bibliographical references (p. ). ISBN 0-8330-2663-1 1. Military art and science—Automation. I. Khalilzad, Zalmay M. II. White, John P. UG478.C43 1999 355.3 ' 43—dc21 99-24933 CIP RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and deci- sionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opin- ions or policies of its research sponsors. © Copyright 1999 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopy- ing, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permis- sion in writing from RAND. Cover design by Eileen Delson La Russo Published 1999 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1333 H St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005-4707 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet: [email protected] PREFACE The effects of new information technologies are all around us. Change is abundant in everything from the computers on our desks to the cell phones in our pockets. For the most part, we welcome these changes and the improvements they herald in our lives. These changes have also affected the global balance of power in favor of the United States. But along with the blessings and opportunities come dangers. Information that is readily available is available to friend and foe alike; a system that relies on communication can become useless if its ability to communicate is interfered with or destroyed. Because this reliance is so general, attacks on the information infrastructure can have widespread effects, both for the military and for society. And such attacks can come from a variety of sources, some difficult or impossible to identify. This book focuses on the opportunities and vulnerabilities inherent in the increasing reliance on informa- tion technology, looking both at its usefulness to the warrior and the need to protect its usefulness for everyone. While the work was carried out under the auspices of the Strategy and Doctrine program of RAND’s Project AIR FORCE, which is spon- sored by the U.S. Air Force, this volume draws on the expertise of researchers from across RAND in a variety of related disciplines. The primary audience of this work consists of Air Force leaders and plan- ners, but it should be of interest to others interested in national security issues and information technology. The Strategic Appraisal series is intended to review, for a broad audi- ence, issues bearing on national security and defense planning. iii iv Strategic Appraisal: The Changing Role of Information in Warfare Strategic Appraisal 1997: Strategy and Defense Planning for the 21st Century, dealt with the challenges the United States military faces in meeting the changing demands made upon it in a changing world. Strategic Appraisal 1996 assessed challenges to U.S. interests around the world, focusing on key nations and regions. PROJECT AIR FORCE Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and analyses. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is being performed in three programs: Strategy and Doctrine, Force Modernization and Employment, and Resource Management and System Acquisition. CONTENTS Preface .......................................... iii Figures .......................................... xiii Tables........................................... xv Acknowledgments.................................. xvii Abbreviations ..................................... xix Foreword Andrew W. Marshall ............................. 1 Chapter One INTRODUCTION Zalmay Khalilzad and John White ................... 7 Structure of the Book............................. 11 Information Technology and Society ............... 11 U.S. Opportunities and Vulnerabilities .............. 12 Issues and Lessons for Decisionmakers.............. 13 References .................................... 14 PART I: SOCIETY AND THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM ...... 17 Chapter Two THE AMERICAN MILITARY ENTERPRISE IN THE INFORMATION AGE Carl H. Builder ................................. 19 Introduction: The Social and Military Perspectives....... 19 The Roots of Revolution........................... 20 Historical Patterns............................... 24 v vi Strategic Appraisal: The Changing Role of Information in Warfare Cultural Factors ................................ 26 What Is the Enterprise? ........................... 28 Adapting to the Information Revolution............... 32 Applying New Technologies to Old Enterprises.......... 35 The Future Enterprise of the Military ................. 37 Bibliography ................................... 42 Chapter Three RIGHT MAKES MIGHT: FREEDOM AND POWER IN THE INFORMATION AGE David C. Gompert ............................... 45 Introduction ................................... 45 Information Technology and World Politics .......... 45 Implications ................................. 48 Information Technology Needs Freedom .............. 50 Knowledge and Economic Freedom ................ 50 Knowledge and Political Freedom.................. 55 Economic Freedom and Political Freedom ........... 56 National Power Needs Information Technology ......... 59 Information Technology and Military Capabilities...... 59 Freedom as Vulnerability ........................ 62 The Changing Profile of Power .................... 65 Powers as Partners .............................. 66 Power, Integration, and Common Success ........... 66 Integrating Rising Powers........................ 69 The Future of the Core .......................... 70 Bibliography ................................... 73 Chapter Four NETWORKS, NETWAR, AND INFORMATION-AGE TERRORISM John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt, and Michele Zanini ....... 75 A New Terrorism (with Old Roots) ................... 75 Recent Views About Terrorism...................... 78 The Advent of Netwar—Analytical Background ......... 80 Definition of Netwar ........................... 82 More About Organizational Design................. 83 Caveats About the Role of Technology .............. 87 Swarming, and the Blurring of Offense and Defense .... 88 Networks Versus Hierarchies: Challenges for Counternetwar ............................. 89 Contents vii Middle Eastern Terrorism and Netwar ................ 90 Middle Eastern Terrorist Groups: Structure and Actions . 92 Middle Eastern Terrorist Groups and the Use of Information Technology ...................... 97 Summary Comment............................ 100 Terrorist Doctrines—The Rise of a “War Paradigm” ...... 101 The Coercive-Diplomacy Paradigm ................ 101 The War Paradigm ............................. 102 The New World Paradigm........................ 103 The Paradigms and Netwar ...................... 104 References .................................... 105 Chapter Five INFORMATION AND WAR: IS IT A REVOLUTION? Jeremy Shapiro ................................. 113 Introduction: Al-Khafji ........................... 113 The Meaning of Revolution ........................ 114 Possible Revolutions ............................. 117 Social Revolution.............................. 118 Political Revolution ............................ 123 Military Revolution ............................ 129 Evolutionary and Revolutionary Proposals ............. 142 Conclusion: Implications of a False Revolution ......... 146 References .................................... 148 PART II: U.S. OPPORTUNITIES AND VULNERABILITIES ..... 155 Chapter Six INFORMATION AND WARFARE: NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR U.S. MILITARY FORCES Edward Harshberger and David Ochmanek ............ 157 Information in Warfare: A Simple Taxonomy........... 158 Knowing the Enemy............................ 158 Knowing Yourself.............................. 159 Knowing the Ground, Knowing the Weather .......... 160 Controlling Forces ............................. 160 Speed and Decisiveness ......................... 161 A Two-Sided Game ............................ 162 Future Victory: New Opportunities .................. 162 Military Advances in Information Technology......... 163 viii Strategic Appraisal: The Changing Role of Information in Warfare How New Information Capabilities Might Affect U.S. Military Operations....................... 170 Conclusions ................................... 176 References .................................... 178 Chapter Seven U.S. MILITARY OPPORTUNITIES: INFORMATION- WARFARE CONCEPTS OF OPERATION Brian Nichiporuk ............................... 179 Introduction ................................... 179 What Do We Mean by “Information Warfare”?
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