September 2001 Interesting Times CONTENTS He Airline Industry Is Living in Interesting Times, As the Old Tchinese Curse Has It
Aviation Strategy Issue No: 47 September 2001 Interesting times CONTENTS he airline industry is living in interesting times, as the old TChinese curse has it. Analysis There are more and more signs of weakening economies, but the official indicators are not pointing to a recession, ie an absolute down-turn in activity The OECD's mid-year Economic Outlook Industry outlook 1 highlights the slow-down in the US economy from real GDP growth of 5.0% in 2000 to 1.9% this year, though a recovery to 3.1% is Sabena, forced to face expected for 2002. The EU is just slightly down this year - GDP reality 2-3 growth of 2.6% against 3.1% in 2000 - and next year is put at 2.7%. Japan, however, continues to plod along its L-shaped recession - 1.3% in 2000, 1.2% in 2001, 0.7% in 2002. Oneworld and SkyTeam: The airlines that are suffering disproportionately are those that Justifying immunity 4-6 followed strategies of tight capacity curtailment yield enhancement and focus on business travel. The US Majors' second quarter Briefing results were unprecedently bad - an operating loss of $0.8bn against a $2.8bn profit a year ago. BA, according to a widely Embraer: new challenges for reported analysis from Merrill Lynch, will be turning to losses for Brazil’s success story 7-10 2001/02. The reason that the airline downturn is worse than that implied KLM: Still searching for by the economic number probably has a lot to do with the collapse a sustainable role 8-14 of the new technology sector.
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