PUBLISHED IN ENGLISH AND IN FRENCH SINCE 1981 THE INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER N°1273 Paris, November 14 2009 CONTENTS MOZAMBIQUE Horn of Africa Afonso Dhlakama is playing with fi re Eritrea: Louis Michel got it all Since he lost by a landslide in the general election on 28 October, Afonso Dhlakama, the leader wrong (p.6); European Union of Renamo (opposition) has been playing a dangerous game of verbal jousting. He has made a show walks on a tightrope (p.7) of being prepared to use violence to contest the election results, which he claims are stained with Djibouti: The Afar sultan’s sons fraud. Many irregularities did indeed take place, but even the most critical observers evaluate them come to visit (p.3); President IOG’s as aff ecting at most 5% or 6% of the votes. They therefore do not have a signifi cant eff ect on the family network (p.4) balance of force in the fi nal outcome. In fact, Dhlakama is making a lot of noise to try to gather the ranks of Renamo around him, as he knows he is increasingly contested within the party. East Africa Guebuza tries to reassure. Last week President Armando Guebuza took endless initiatives to Kenya: KACC investigates a prevent his election victory together with that of Frelimo (governing party) from being tarnished by minister (p.3); Administration Police post-election violence, which would have been disastrous for the international image of his country. takes to the air (p.4); Considerable interest in NBK (p.6) He is worried just as much by Dhlakama’s calls to contest the election results as he is by the risk that Dhlakama might be dramatically ousted from the Renamo leadership by an internal settling of scores Tanzania: The tradition of double allocations (p.3) within the party. Guebuza therefore asked the representatives of the international community in Maputo as well as Dhlakama’s “friends” abroad to persuade him to tone down a bit. The presidential offi ce, via the Mozambican embassies in Lisbon, Washington and Rome, took up the task of passing Southern Africa this message on to Matteo Zuppi of the Santo Egidio community (close to the Vatican), Maria Bar- Mozambique: Brazil pulls out all roso (the wife of the Socialist former President of Portugal Mario Soares) and the Archbishop of Beira, the stops (p.6) Jaime Gonçalves. Mrs Barroso phoned Dhlakama for this reason, as did the Portuguese Secretary of Zimbabwe: Gideon Gono under State for Foreign Aff airs and Cooperation Joao Cravinho. For her part, Prime Minister Luisa Diogo NGO surveillance (p.2) began a tour of Europe, via Lisbon, to reassure the foreign investors. Game over for Dhlakama? For his part, the leader of Renamo is going through a moment of high The Islands stress within his party. For the last few weeks he has been living as a virtual recluse in Nampula, in the Madagascar: Roland Ratsiraka’s hands of the local party offi cial, Lucia Afate, who is providing his secretarial service, fi lters his calls support in Paris (p.3); Negotiations and pushes him to remain intransigent. Last week, several groups of representatives of Renamo’s rural for a unity cabinet (p.4); A bookma- wing, the section of the party that has the deepest roots in its ethnic strongholds, had meetings with ker in uranium (p.7) him in Nampula, hence contributing to keeping him isolated from the rest of the country. This “Renamo Seychelles: David Savy gets a little of the countryside” faction supports violent protest against the election results. But the same cannot more cash (p.7) be said of “Renamo from Maputo”, whose members are now particularly preoccupied to prepare for the Comoros: Sambi stands up to future by ousting Dhlakama and recovering several of their party’s historical leaders that the latter had Bashar Kiwan (p.6) pushed out over the years, namely Raul Domingos, the elderly and sick Commander Ungwenya and, Zanzibar: Oslo interested in oil (p.2) naturally, the rising star David Simango. Nevertheless, in spite of this election defeat, Dhlakama still has international support among from the conservatives, via men like the Portuguese Jaime Nogueira Companies (p.5) Pinto, parties like the Centro Democratico Social de Paulo Portas, NGOs like the Heritage Founda- Fiaro (Madagascar) tion of the United States and members of the Portuguese intelligence service. The majority of them Sogir (Mozambique) feel the time is not right to fi ght over the succession for the leadership of Renamo. But others, on the IBI Corp. (Uganda) other hand, believe that Dhlakama is “fi nished” and that Guebuza would be well-advised to off er him Lonrho (Mozambique) Westminster Group (Sudan) a “consolation prize” such as an honorary post or a diplomatic appointment abroad. Simango ready for 2014. The son of Urias Simango, a historical leader of Frelimo who was assas- Who's Who (p.8) sinated many years ago by his own comrades, David Simango has partly succeeded in his risky move of Linus Gitahi, leaving Renamo and running in the election on 28 October. He polled half of Dhlakama’s score in the Belete Etana, presidential election and his new party won 8 seats. He is now beginning to have international support Mick Raveloson, from American conservatives who are looking for an alternative to Dhlakama. But while he does well Jacky Radavidra, in urban areas, Simango is much less popular than Dhlakama in deprived rural regions. Moreover, in Sylvain Issembert, the future he will have to contend with some rising stars in Renamo, like Herminio Morais (of mixed Maurice Vigier de Latour race, from the southern part of the country) and the party spokesman Fernando Mazanga, who will not fail to come out of the wood as soon as the race is on to succeed Dhlakama. Every day on AfricaIntelligence.com THE INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER Politics & Power-Brokers BEHIND CLOSED DOORS UMP revival in Madagascar. Emirates (UAE), Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed The fever to split the party that had Al Nahyan, who owns two large proper- MAPUTO Two offspring of Mozambican afflicted the partisans of the Union pour ties and several villas on Mahé. Last week, dignitaries are constant business partners. un Mouvement Populaire (UMP, French President Michel visited him in Abu Dhabi Celso Cadmiel Mutemba, the son of presidential party) in Madagascar during to ask him to speed up the disbursement the minister for fisheries, and Pascoal the election for Assemblée des Français de of a $30 million gift to finance the con- Mahiteke Mocumbi, the son of a former l’Etranger (AFE) last June (ION 1263) has struction of housing in the Seychelles. Prime Minister, are already in partnership in now healed. For Xavier Desplanques Top Tours, Viagens Serviços et Turismo the time has come to revive this party’s An Ethiopian town under Lda and in the property company Oaktree political activity in Antananarivo ahead of high surveillance. In the afternoon Investments Lda. They have now just the French parliamentary election in 2012. and evening of 3 November, the town of To be sure, in this future poll, the French founded Sal & Pimenta Lda, a company Harar in the eastern part of the country specialised in catering, together with two Indian Ocean voters will all be considered joint shareholders, Salomao Cossa and as part of the same electoral constitu- was under high military surveillance. Paul Lord. The latter, who is already a ency as those in several other African and Some army vehicles carrying machine partner in Oaktree Investments, is the CEO Middle East countries. But in view of the guns drove through the town, checking of Quintessentially in Mozambique and a large number (25,000) of French or hold- the streets. The reason for this movement shareholder in Tahiluk Lda. ers of dual French-Malagasy nationality was that arms had been stolen from a and electors in the Indian Ocean islands military depot in the town. A certain (Comoros, Mauritius and the Seychelles), DAR ES SALAAM The squabble the UMP could hope “to hope to field a can- Major Hassan Warsame Mohamed was between two businessmen in the Chama didate from the Indian Ocean” in the French arrested and transfered to Addis Ababa, cha Mapindunzi (CCM) is to end up in parliamentary election. Desplanques accused of collaborating with agents the courts. To be sure, Reginald Mengi, therefore formed a provisional board for of the Ogaden National Liberation the chairman of the fi rm IPP Ltd, decided UMP Madagascar. This consists of eight to take legal action against the CCM MP Front (ONLF, armed opposition) to members, including Patric Touzeau (his carry out the theft. According to certain Rostam Aziz. The reason for Mengi’s action rival in the AFE election) in the post of local observers it is not unusual for is an article that he considers libellous, general secretary and Patrick Charron, published in the Swahili language tabloid the manager of Car Center Andraharo, as government army officers, including Mtanzania owned by Aziz. The article stated deputy general secretary. The team is com- Tigrayans, to be involved in illegal arms that the authorities had called for Mengi pleted by Jean Paul Lictevoet (owner of deals in Ethiopia. and others to be sacked from the board of the security company SAS), Olivier Aigle the National Investment Company Ltd (economic operator on Nosy-Be), Edmont Norway interested in oil in and indicted for attempting to falsify the Lepont (a former engineer in the French In July the Zanzibar govern- company accounts. Mengi has instructed electricity company EDF), François Vit- Zanzibar. ment decided to take over the manage- the fi rm Ngalo & Company Advocates to toz (director of a security company) and ment of searching for oil on its territory, fi le proceedings against Aziz.