Canada This Month Public Opinion Research Release Date: May 07, 2020 Quebec Politics Field Dates: May 01, 2020 to May 05, 2020 STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL 2 Quebec Politics in the time of COVID-19 The COVID-19 outbreak has set off a series of changes in the Canadian political landscape. In Quebec, after initially giving him extremely high marks, Quebecers views of how Legault has handled the crisis have come back down to earth the longer the situation has worn on. This has left mixed results for him politically and a tough election battle with the Liberals. Today, INNOVATIVE is releasing results from our May 2020 Canada This Month survey. This online survey was in field from May 1st to May 5th with a weighted sample size of 300 Quebec residents. Detailed methodology is provided in the appendix. This report covers key results on how those from Quebec are rating their government’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak and the impacts that is having on more general government approval and provincial vote choice. 3 The Quebec government is receiving very high approval on handling of COVID-19 but has seen declines as the situation wears on STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL COVID-19 Handling: 3-in-5 (62%) say they approve of the Quebec 4 gov’ts handling of COVID-19 while only 16% disapprove Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Quebec Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=300] Approve: 62% 34% 29% Disapprove: 16% 13% 10% 8% 6% Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know disapprove Current data: May 2020 COVID-19 Handling Tracking: While still very high, approval of the QC 5 gov’ts handling of the outbreak is trending downwards since mid-April Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Quebec Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=300] 4% 3% 8% 4% 6% 7% 10% 26% 13% 29% 55% 34% Mar-20 Mar-20 (2) Apr-20 Apr-20 (2) Apr-20 (3) May-20 Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know Current data: May 2020 COVID-19 Handling Tracking: While the Quebec was viewed positively 6 at first, it has declined and is now below the provincial average % who approve of government’s handling of COVID-19 outbreak: Quebec Vs. Provincial Average [asked of all respondents; n=1500] 81% 83% 76% Provincial Average 72% 69% 68% 69% 67% 69% 66% Quebec 63% 62% March 16-18 March 24-26 March 31-April 2 April 9-13 April 20-22 May 1-5 Current data: May 2020 7 In light of the positive response to COVID handling, general government satisfaction is also high in Quebec STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Quebec Mood: 3-in-4 (73%) say they are generally satisfied with the 8 performance of the Quebec gov’t while 1-in-5 (21%) say dissatisfied Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the performance of the PROVINCIAL government in Quebec? Would you say you are...? [asked of all respondents; n=300] Satisfied: 73% 42% 31% Dissatisfied: 21% 13% 8% 6% Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know Current data: May 2020 is Tracking: Mood Quebec Current 2020 Maydata: 6% 34% 28% 32% up overall since the beginning of the year, but down from April to May to April from but down thebeginning since year, of the up overall Aug-16 n=300] respondents; all of [asked in government the PROVINCIAL of performance with the you are satisfied speaking, how Generally Sep-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 May-17 Very satisfied Very Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Somewhat satisfied Somewhat Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 gov’t with the satisfied are they Those whosay May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Somewhat dissatisfied Somewhat Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 CAQ forms majority forms CAQ October 2018: October Nov-18 government Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Very dissatisfied Very Apr-19 Quebec Apr-19 (2) May-19 ? Would you say you are...? you say you ? Would Jun-19 Jul-19 Don't know Don't Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 31% 42% 13% 8% 6% 9 10 Close to 7-in-10 have read, seen, or heard about Legault in the last few days and a strong majority say it had a positive impact STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Quebec Read, Seen, Heard: Over 3-in-5 (64%) say they have read, seen, 11 or heard something about Legault; most are more favourable (56%) Have you read, seen or heard anything about Francois Legault in the last Did what you read, see or hear leave you feeling a lot more favourable, few days? somewhat more favourable, somewhat less favourable or a lot less [Asked of those who have RSH; n=300] favourable towards Francois Legault, or did it make no difference? [Asked of those who have RSH; n=191] 64% A lot more favourable 29% Somewhat more favourable 27% 36% Made no difference 22% Somewhat less favourable 11% A lot less favourable 11% No Yes Current data: May 2020 R/S/H about Legault, down slightly since April but still very high very but still April since slightly down R/S/H about Legault, Tracking: Heard Seen, Read, Current 2020 Maydata: Note: 48% 52% Don't shown.notknow [asked of all respondents; n=300] respondents; all of [asked about anything heard orseen read, you Have Aug-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Francois Legault Legault Francois Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Nearly two Nearly Jun-18 in the last few days? few last in the Jul-18 Aug-18 Yes Sep-18 Oct-18 CAQ forms majority forms CAQ No October 2018: October Nov-18 government Dec-18 - thirds ( thirds Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 64%) Apr-19 (2) May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 have they say Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 36% 64% 12 Quebec Read, Seen, Heard, Impact Tracking: Those left more favourable13 is down 28-pts month-to-month to 56% but still net positive Did what you read, see or hear leave you feeling a lot more favourable, somewhat more favourable, somewhat less favourable or a lot less favourable towards Francois Legault, or did it make no difference? [asked of those who have RSH; n=191] October 2018: CAQ forms majority government 11% 34% 11% 22% 18% 27% 33% 10% 29% 5% Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Oct-17 Oct-18 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Sep-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Sep-19 Feb-20 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Nov-18 Nov-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 Apr-19 (2) A lot more favourable Somewhat more favourable Made no difference Somewhat less favourable A lot less favourable Note: Don't know not shown. Current data: May 2020 14 We group individuals into segments based on key political and economic values and attitudes We use these segments throughout the remainder of the report to further analyze vote leadership results. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Core Political Values: Over half (53%) say the government should 15 listen to experts when it comes to policy Now we would like to ask a few questions about basic values and Is the main role of government to…? society...When governments make major decisions concerning spending [asked of all respondents; n=300] on programs and services, do you think they should be basing their decisions mainly on…? To create equal opportunity so that [asked of all respondents; n=300] everyone can compete on their own to be 49% the best they can be Their ability to afford the programs and To redistribute wealth so that the poor 27% services and disadvantaged have more than they 36% The public's need for the programs and would if left on their own 54% services Don't know 15% Don't know 19% Which of the following statements comes closest to your view? When it comes to government decision making, which of the following [asked of all respondents; n=300] statements is closest to your view? [asked of all respondents; n=300] The profit system brings out the worst in 30% Too often the government listens to experts human nature. instead of common sense. 28% The profit system teaches people the Provincial issues are complicated so 45% value of hard work and success. government should listen to experts when it 53% comes to policy. Don't know 25% Don't Know 20% Current data: May 2020 Value Clusters: 3-in-10 (30%) are Business Liberals followed by 19% for 16 Thrifty Moderates and 19% for Core Left Value Clusters: Clusters are based on 4 basic values: equal opportunity versus redistribution; trust in the profit system; whether spending should be based on ability to afford or public need; and whether government should listen to experts or common sense. [asked of all respondents; n=300] Deferential Core Left, 19% Conservatives, 15% Populist Conservatives, 5% Thrifty Moderates, 19% Business Liberals, 30% Left Liberals, 12% Current data: May 2020 Defining Value Clusters: Liberal clusters split on the role of the profit 17 system, Conservative clusters split on deference towards authority Core Political Values by Value Clusters Deferential Populist Business Thrifty Column % Left Liberals Core Left Conservatives Conservatives Liberals Moderates Governments should base Ability to afford 81% 89% 0% 0% 53% 0% decisions on..