Quebec Politics in the time of Public Opinion Research Release Date: July 29, 2020 COVID-19: July 2020 update Field Dates: July 14, 2020 to July 20, 2020 STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL 2 Quebec Politics in the time of COVID-19 The COVID-19 outbreak has set off a series of changes in the Canadian political landscape. Since June, attitudes in Quebec are largely holding steady. This includes favourability of Legault and his wide lead over other party leaders as the best option for Premier of Quebec. When it comes to leadership attributes, Legault ranks as the best on all positive attributes such as ‘strong leadership’, ‘competent’, and ‘represents positive change’. Legault and the CAQ now have an 8-point lead over the Liberals when it comes to vote. Today, INNOVATIVE is releasing results from our July 2020 Canada This Month survey. This online survey was in field from July 14th to July 20th with a weighted sample size of 500 Quebec residents. Detailed methodology is provided in the appendix. This report covers key results on how those from Quebec are rating their government’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak and the impacts that is having on more general government approval and provincial vote choice. 3 Government Approval Quebecers are steady on the share who say they approve of the gov’ts handling of COVID-19, with a large majority continuing to approve. General satisfaction with the government remains high and steady since last month. Quebec Mood: 7-in-10 (69%) are satisfied with the performance of the 4 QC government while only 1-in-4 (23%) are dissatisfied Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the performance of the PROVINCIAL government in Quebec? Would you say you are...? [asked of all respondents; n=500] Satisfied: 69% 42% 27% Dissatisfied: 23% 14% 9% 7% Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know Current data: July 2020 performance of the QC government is steady sinceJune steady is the QCgovernment of performance Tracking: Mood Quebec Current Current 2020 July data: 6% 34% 28% 32% Aug-16 n=500] respondents; all of [asked in government the PROVINCIAL of performance with the you are satisfied speaking, how Generally Sep-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Very satisfied Very Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Somewhat satisfied Somewhat Mar-18 Apr-18 Those saying they are satisfied with with the satisfied are they Those saying May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Somewhat dissatisfied Somewhat Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Very dissatisfied Very Apr-19 (2) Quebec May-19 Jun-19 ? Would you say you are...? you say you ? Would Jul-19 Sep-19 Don't know Don't Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 27% 42% 14% 9% 7% 5 COVID-19 Handling: When it comes to COVID-19, 2-in-3 (66%) approve 6 of the provincial gov’ts handling of the outbreak Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Quebec Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=500] Approve: 66% 33% 33% Disapprove: 16% 13% 9% 7% 5% Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know disapprove Current data: July 2020 COVID-19 Handling Tracking: Compared to late June, those saying they 7 approve of the QC gov’ts handling of the outbreak is steady Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Quebec Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=500] 4% 5% 3% 4% 7% 7% 9% 13% 26% 33% 55% 33% Mar-20 Mar-20 (2) Apr-20 Apr-20 (2) Apr-20 (3) May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 (2) Jul-20 Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know Current data: July 2020 COVID-19 Handling Tracking: The Quebec government is directionally 8 below the provincial average now by 5 points % who approve of provincial government’s handling of COVID-19 outbreak: Quebec Vs. National Average [asked of all respondents; n=500] Quebec 81% 83% 76% 72% 70% 71% 69% 68% 69% National Average 69% 67% 69% 66% 68% 67% 63% 62% 66% March 16- March 24- March 31- April 9-13 April 20-22 May 1-5 May 29- June 19-23 July 14-20 18 26 April 2 June 1 Current data: July 2020 Read, Seen, Heard The share of respondents who recall hearing something about Legault in the last few days is steady compared to June, and a majority of those who recall something say they felt more favourable towards him. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Quebec Read, Seen, Heard: About half (49%) have heard something 10 about Legault, and most who did were left more favourable Have you read, seen or heard anything about Francois Legault in the last Did what you read, see or hear leave you feeling a lot more favourable, few days? somewhat more favourable, somewhat less favourable or a lot less [Asked of those who have RSH; n=500] favourable towards Francois Legault, or did it make no difference? [Asked of those who have RSH; n=247] 51% 49% A lot less favourable 10% Less Favourable: 19% Somewhat less favourable 9% Made no difference 28% Somewhat more favourable 26% More Favourable: A lot more favourable 27% 53% No Yes Current data: July 2020 something about Legault is mostly steady sinceJune steady mostly is about something Legault Tracking: Heard Seen, Read, Current Julydata: 2020 Note: 48% 52% Don't shown.notknow Aug-16 n=500] respondents; all of [asked about anything heard orseen read, you Have Sep-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Francois Legault Francois Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 orheard saw, read, they Those saying Aug-18 days? few last in the Sep-18 Yes Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 No Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 (2) May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 May-20 (2) Jun-20 Jul-20 49% 51% 11 were left more favourably is up 5 points directionally June since directionally up is 5 points favourably more left were Tracking: Impact Heard, Seen, Read, Quebec Current Julydata: 2020 Note: 5% 10% 33% 18% 34% Don't shown.notknow Aug-16 n=247]RSH; have who those of [asked towards a more lot feeling you leave hear see or read, you what Did Sep-16 Jan-17 Francois Legault Francois Feb-17 Somewhat less favourable Somewhat favourable more A lot Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 nodifference? itmake , did or Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 A lot less favourable less A lot favourable more Somewhat Jun-18 Jul-18 favourable Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 more somewhat , Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 favourable Apr-19 The share saying they they saying The share Made no no difference Made Apr-19 (2) May-19 less somewhat , Jun-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 favourable Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 or a lot less lot a or Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 favourable May-20 (2) Jun-20 Jul-20 27% 26% 28% 9% 10% 12 13 We group individuals into segments based on key political and economic values and attitudes We use these segments throughout the remainder of the report to further analyze vote and leadership results. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Core Political Values: A plurality of Quebecers (47%) believe the 14 provincial gov’t should listen to experts when it comes to policy Now we would like to ask a few questions about basic values and Is the main role of government to…? society...When governments make major decisions concerning spending [asked of all respondents; n=500] on programs and services, do you think they should be basing their To create equal opportunity so that decisions mainly on…? everyone can compete on their own to be 52% [asked of all respondents; n=500] the best they can be Their ability to afford the programs and To redistribute wealth so that the poor 34% services and disadvantaged have more than they 35% The public's need for the programs and would if left on their own 46% services Don't know 13% Don't know 20% Which of the following statements comes closest to your view? When it comes to government decision making, which of the following [asked of all respondents; n=500] statements is closest to your view? [asked of all respondents; n=500] The profit system brings out the worst in 28% human nature. Too often the government listens to 34% experts instead of common sense. The profit system teaches people the 46% Provincial issues are complicated so value of hard work and success. government should listen to experts when 47% it comes to policy. Don't know 26% Don't Know 18% Current data: July 2020 Value Clusters: A majority of Quebec respondents are Business 15 Liberals (28%) or Thrifty Moderates (24%) Value Clusters: Clusters are based on 4 basic values: equal opportunity versus redistribution; trust in the profit system; whether spending should be based on ability to afford or public need; and whether government should listen to experts or common sense.