What Explains the National Foreign Policy of EU Member States Towards

What explains the national foreign policy of EU member states towards Russia in light of the EU sanction regime? A case study congruence analysis of ideational liberalism and commercial liberalism applied towards Estonia and Austria First reader: Dr. M. Onderco Second reader: Dr. A.T. Zhelyazkova Quirine Hoogeveen 485740 Thesis MSc International Public Management and Policy Erasmus University Rotterdam Word count: 24.807 05-10-2018 1 Abstract This thesis makes a contribution to the understanding of EU national foreign policy by analysing whether ideational liberalism or commercial liberalism better explain the national foreign policy outlook of Estonia and Austria towards Russia in light of the EU collective sanction regime. In answering this question, the thesis follows a case study research design in which it conducts a congruence analysis following a competing theoretical approach. Propositions focused on political ideology, as grounded in ideational liberalism, and trade linkages, as stemming from commercial liberalism, are being applied to the two ‘least-likely’ cases under analysis. This thesis argues that the national foreign policy of EU member states towards Russia in light of the imposed EU sanctions can better be explained via ideational liberalism, centred on political ideology. It hereby gives substances to the fundamental status of the IR liberalist paradigm when focused on ideational liberalism. In addition, this thesis’ central argument is in line with the apparent consideration that economic reasoning might not be the true underpinning of EU national foreign policy towards Russia. 2 Acknowledgements I would like dedicate a few words of thanks to the people that gave me valuable support during the process of writing this thesis at hand. First of all, I would like to thank my thesis supervisor Dr. Onderco for his academic help and knowledge, his flexibility and his optimism. Secondly, I would like to express my thanks to my second reader Dr. Zhelyazkova for providing me a critical outlook on my thesis. In addition, I would like to give a word of thanks to my family, my parents, Pieter and Xandra, my brothers, Marius and Jasper, and my friends for listening with patience to my (sometimes overloaded) thesis mind. Finally, I am thankful to my fellow IMP students, in particularly my own thesis cycle, for sharing their motivational and inspirational thoughts. Thank you, Quirine Hoogeveen Leiden, 2018 3 List of acronyms ÖVP Austrian People’s Party CPT Causal-process tracing approach CP Centre Party CFSP Common Foreign Security Policy CSDP Common Security and Defence Policy CON Congruence analysis approach COV Co-variational approach Council European Council EEAS European External Action Service EU European Union FPÖ Freedom Party of Austria GDP Gross Domestic Product IR International Relations MEP’s Members of the European Parliament NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation OSCE Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe PfP Partnership for Peace IRL Pro Patria and Res Publica Union RP Reform Party SITC Standard International Trade Classification SDE Social Democratic Party SPÖ Social Democratic Party of Austria TEU Treaty on the European Union TFEU Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union USSR Union of Soviet Socialists Republic UN United Nations UNSC United Nations Security Council 4 List of figures and tables Figure 1 p. 11 Figure 2 p. 13 Figure 3 p. 26 Figure 4 p. 32 Figure 5 p. 37 Figure 6 p. 45 Figure 7 p. 49 Figure 8 p. 50 Figure 9 p. 53 Figure 10 p. 59 Figure 11 p. 60 Figure 12 p. 64 Figure 13 p. 69 Figure 14 p. 70 5 Table 1 p. 41 Table 2 p. 42 Table 3 p. 43 Table 4 p. 55 Table 5 p. 56 Table 6 p. 57 Table 7 p. 58 Table 8 p. 59 Table 9 p. 60 Table 10 p. 61 Table 11 p. 66 Table 12 p. 67 Table 13 p. 68 Table 14 p. 69 Table 15 p. 70 Table 16 p. 71 Table 17 (Appendix) p. 88 Table 18 (Appendix) p. 89 Table 19 (Appendix) p. 90 Table 20 (Appendix) p. 90 6 Contents 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 10 1.1 EU sanctions ................................................................................................................... 10 1.2 Types of EU sanctions .................................................................................................... 10 1.3 Decision-making procedure of EU sanctions ................................................................. 11 1.4 EU Sanctions to Russia ................................................................................................... 12 1.5 Research question ........................................................................................................... 13 1.5.1 Theoretical relevance ............................................................................................... 14 1.5.2 Social relevance ....................................................................................................... 14 1.6 Structure of the thesis ..................................................................................................... 14 2. Literature Review ............................................................................................................... 16 2.1 The effectiveness of EU sanctions .................................................................................. 16 2.2 Sanctions imposed to Russia in 2014: objectives and consequences ............................. 16 2.3 National and sectoral economic consequences for the EU of the imposed sanctions .... 17 2.4 A glance at national foreign approaches towards Russia before the implementation of the EU sanctions in 2014 ...................................................................................................... 18 2.5 Post-2014 context: Trojan horses, anti- and pro-Western political parties and divergent EU citizens’ perceptions towards the imposed sanctions ..................................................... 20 2.6 How did the EU sanction regime towards Russia came into being? .............................. 21 2.7 (Theoretical) approaches towards understanding the (national) foreign policy outlook of EU member states towards Russia against the background of the violence in Ukraine ....... 22 2.8 This thesis’ contribution to the present literature ........................................................... 23 3. Theoretical Framework ..................................................................................................... 25 3.1 IR theories and levels-of-analysis: the basics ................................................................. 25 3.2 Fundamental IR paradigms ............................................................................................. 26 3.2.1 Realism .................................................................................................................... 26 3.2.2 Liberalism ................................................................................................................ 28 3.2.3 Constructivism ......................................................................................................... 30 3.3 The most suitable IR paradigm to function as theoretical framework ........................... 32 3.4 A focus on two variants within the IR theoretical perspective ....................................... 32 3.4.1 Ideational liberalism ................................................................................................. 33 3.4.2 Commercial liberalism ............................................................................................. 34 4. Research Method ................................................................................................................ 37 4.1 A case study research design .......................................................................................... 37 7 4.1.1 Distinctive case study designs ................................................................................. 38 4.1.2 Applying a CON ...................................................................................................... 39 4.2 Case selection ................................................................................................................. 39 4.2.1 Political ideology of EU member states towards Russia ......................................... 39 4.2.2 Degree of economic interdependence between EU member states and Russia ....... 43 4.2.3 Case selection based on political ideology and degree of economic interdependence ........................................................................................................................................... 44 4.3 Validity of the research design ....................................................................................... 45 4.3.1 Internal validity ........................................................................................................ 45 4.3.2 External validity ....................................................................................................... 46 4.4 Reliability of the research design ................................................................................... 46 4.5 Data collection ................................................................................................................ 46 5. Empirical Analysis ............................................................................................................. 48 5.1 The political ideology towards Russia in practice .........................................................

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