Tri-Statetiigh Speedrailstudy (%Icaqo
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Tri-Statetiigh SpeedRail Study (%icaqob - Milwaukee - Twin Cities Corridor TMS/Benesch High Speed Rail Consultants Transportation Management Systems, hc. Alfred Benesch & Company TRI-STATESTUDY OF HIGH SPEED RAIL SERVICE PREPARED FOR ILLINOIS,MNNESOTA AND WISCONSIN DEPARTMENTS OF TRANSPORTATION BY TMS/BENESCH TRI-STATEH.IGHSPEm RAIL CONSULTANTS MAY 1991 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Tri-State Study of High Speed Rail Service was prepared for: Illinois Department of Transportation Bureau of Railroads Office of Planning & Programming 2300 South Dirksen ParImvay Springfield, Illinois 62764 Minnesota Department of Transportation Office of Railroads & Waterways Program Management Division 395 John Ireland Boulevard St. Paul, Minnesota 55155 Wisconsin Department of Transportation Policy Analysis & Information Section Division of Planning& Budget 4802 Sheboygan Avenue, P.O. Box 7913 Madison, Wisconsin 53707-7913 The Consultant Team was conducted by: TMS/Benesch Tri-State High Speed Rail Consultants an association of Transportation Management Systems, Inc. 11317 Beach Mill Road Great Falls, Virginia 22066 and Alfred Benesch & Company 233 North Michigan Avenue Chicago, Illinois 60601 with support provided by James Powell, Gordon Danby, and Barbara Crosser Associates. This report is intended to assist the Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin Departments of Transportation in determin.ing the future of high speed rail passenger service in the Tri-State Corridor. The findings contained herein are the sole responsibility of the Consultant Team. I TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 moDucTION The Study Area -1 Purpose and Objectives of the Study -3 Study Reports -4 2 RAIL TECHNOLOGY Characteristics of the High Speed Technology 2-1 Characteristics of the Very High Speed Technology 2-2 Characteristics of the Super Speed Technology 2-3 Technologies Selected for Study Analysis 2-3 High Speed Technology Option 2-4 Very High Speed Technology Option 2-4 Super Speed Technology Option 2-5 Technology Issues 2-5 3 ROUTES Routes Selected for Analysis 3-3 Comparative Evaluation of Routes 3-6 Comparative Evaluation of Environmental Constraints 3-6 Comparative Engineering Evaluation 3-7 Recommended Routes 3-8 Route #1: Existing Amtrak Route 3-8 Route #4: South Route Modified 3-1o Route #7: North Route Modified 3-1o 4 RH)ERSHIP Zone System 4-1 Data Base 4-2 Network Data 4-2 Socioeconomic Data 4-2 Origin-Destination Data 4-3 Development of Values of Time and Values of Frequency 4-4 Attitudinal Survey 4-4 Results of the Trade-Off Analysis 4-7 TMWBENESCH xi Basic Structure of the COMPASS(C)Model 4-9 Total Demand Model 4-1o The Socioeconomic Variables 4-1o Generalized Cost 4-11 Calibration of the Total Demand Model 4-11 Zone System for Calibration 4-12 Calibration Results for the Total Demand Model 4-12 Modal Split Model 4-12 Form of the Modal Split Model 4-13 Combined Mode Generalized Cost 4-15 Ratio Model versus Difference Model 4-15 Calibration Results for Public versus Private Auto 4-16 Calibration Results for Surface versus Air 4-16 Calibration Results for Rail versus Bus 4-17 Conclusions 4-18 Model Verification 4-18 Forecasting Process 4-18 Economic Scenarios 4-18 Transportation Strategies 4-20 Other Mode “Action” Cases 4-21 Forecast Results 4-22 Model Variations 4-24 Half VOT/VOF Analysis 4-24 Logsum Model 4-26 Super Speed/Low Speed Modal Split Model 4-29 Results of the Model Variations 4-30 5 SYSTEM OPERATIONS Train Running Times and Timetables 5-1 Timetable Development Criteria 5-3 Development of Timetables 5-5 Train Running Time Results 5-7 Fleet Requirements 5-9 Train Consist Size 5-1o Freight Train Interference 5-11 6 REVENUES AND COSTS Revenues 6-1 Operating and Maintenance Costs 6-2 Operating and Maintenance Unit Costs 6-2 Annual Operating and Maintenance Costs 6-4 TMWBENESCHxii Infrastructure Costs 6-5 Infrastructure Unit Costs 6-5 Infrastructure and Total Capital Cost Estimates 6-7 7 FINANCIALAND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Financial Analysis 7-1 Financial Model 7-2 Discount Rate 7-2 Interest Rates for Municipal Bonds 7-2 Interest Rates for Private Loans 7-3 Measures of Financial Performance 7-3 Other Financial Assumptions 7-4 Results of the Financial Analysis 7-5 Sensitivity Analysis 7-6 Financial Analysis Conclusions 7-8 Economic Analysis 7-8 User Benefits 7-9 Community Benefits 7-12 Results of the Economic Analysis 7-14 Conclusions 7-16 8 SUMMARY Findings 8-1 Conclusions 8-2 Recommendations 8-3 TMS/BENESCH xiii CHAPTER 1 I.NTRODucTION In recent years, the potential for the development of high speed rail corridors has become an increasingly important element of long-range transportation plans in North America for intercity and interregional travel. The continued growth in the demand for intercity travel, coupled with the increasing congestion and costs associated with traditional forms of intercity travel (air and auto), has resulted in a search for new ways to provide fast and effective travel between urban areas. High speed rail is not expected to replace air and auto travel, but rather to complement these modes by providing a preferred alternative for trips between 150 and 400 miles in length. High speed rail transportation is generally considered the logical choice of travel mode for the “gap” between the most comfortable, convenient trip lengths for auto travel (0-150 miles) and air travel (400-2000+ miles). If the volume of trips between 150 and 400 miles in length continues to expand rapidly (possibly doubling or tripling) over the next twenty to thirty years, regional travel will replace urban/suburban travel as the fastest growing travel market and there will be an ever increasing need for a more effective interregional transportation system. Because intercity and interregional travelers are more interested in “door-to-door” journey times than a train’s maximum speed, minimum access, terminal and interchange times and maximum frequency (convenience) and reliability are the critical elements affecting their decision as to which travel mode to choose. High speed rail systems successfully meet these criteria for trips under 400 miles and, thus, appear to present an effective transportation option. Where high speed rail systems have been implemented elsewhere in the world (specifically in Europe ancl Japan), they are well used and highly regarded by the general populace. What needs to be understood is whether high speed rail can prove as useful in a North American context and, if so, what type of financial and institutional supports would be needed for its successful implementation. The Tri-State Study of High Speed Rail Service has set out to answer these questions for the corridor between Chicago, Milwaukee and Minneapolis-St. Paul. The study is the direct result of the realization by the Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois Departments of Transportation that high speed rail could considerably improve regional accessibility in eastern Minnesota, the entire state of Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. To that end, a Tri-State “Memorandum of Understanding” was established in 1990 for evaluating the potential for high speed rail in this corridor, and the Consultant Team of Transportation Management Systems, Inc./Alfred Benesch & Comp~y (TMS/Benesch) was retained in June 1990 to carry out a pre-feasibility study. As shown in Exhibit 1.1, the study area encompassed a Southern Corridor which included Madison, La Crosse and Rochester and a Northern Corridor which included Green Bay-Appleton, Wausau and Eau Claire. TMs/BENEscH 1-1 Exhibit 1.1 population of Corridor Communities and ConutiatioM (1989) Northern Corridor Twin Cities 2,300,000 Wauaau GreenBay-Appleton 31O,OOO Milwaukee Southern Corridor 1,600,000 i W9 Chicago 7,300,000 L Both corridors link Chicago, which has a population of nearly 8.0 -on and is North America’s major transportation hub, with the nearby city of Milwaukee (less than 100 miles away), which has a population of 1.6 million. These metropolitan areas clearly have a strong affinity with each other while maintaining their independence ~d distinctive ch=cti. Minneapolis-St. Paui, 300 miles from Milwaukee and with a population of 2.3 Won, smds sumounded on three sides by the emptiness of the Great Plains to the west, C* to the nom, and Lake Superior and Lake Michigan to the north and east. As a result, its population shows a strong desire for a viable physical linkage with Chicago which sewes as its “gateway” to the rest of the U.S. Along the Southern Corridor lie the smaller cities of Madison, Wisconsin (population of 350,000), b Crosse, Wisconsin (population of 100,000) ~d Rochester, Minnesota (population of 100,000). While Madison, the capital of Wisconsin, hu s~ng comections with Milwaukee, approximately 100 miles to the east, La Crosse md Rmh=~ look to Minneapolis-St. Paul for many services and urban facilities. Madison, as a mpiti city, md Roches~, as the home of the Mayo Clinic, have an “attractiveness” and sigtifi~= u ~vel destitions that cannot be accounted for by their population size. In the Northern Corridor, the key population centers are Green Bay-Appleton (population of 310,000), Wausau (pOption of 120,000), md Eau CIaire (population of 80,000). These cities look to Milwaukee, ChicWO ad Minnqlis-St. Paul for specific sewirn and urban facilities. TMW13ENESCH1-2 Overall, the Tri-State Corridor is characterized by three distinctive relationships: ● The almost intra-urban Chicago-Milwaukee relationship. Q The more typical intercity or interregional relationship of Minneapolis-St. Paul with Chicago and Milwaukee. ● The relationship of the smaller urban areas with the nearest large city (Chicago, Milwaukee or Minneapolis-St. Paul). In the case of Madison and Rochester, however, the typical small city/large city relationship is “surpassed” by their special roles as educational, political and medical care centers. In conclusion, the demand for intercity or interregional travel in the Tri-State Corridor is somewhat different from other proposed high speed rail corridors in North America, as the corridor has a number of unique relationships and, thus, a higher than typical level of demand for intercity and interregional travel.