Understanding Strategic Interaction in the Second Nuclear Age
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The Erosion of Strategic Stability and the Future of Arms Control in Europe
Études de l’Ifri Proliferation Papers 60 THE EROSION OF STRATEGIC STABILITY AND THE FUTURE OF ARMS COntrOL IN EUROPE Corentin BRUSTLEIN November 2018 Security Studies Center The Institut français des relations internationales (Ifri) is a research center and a forum for debate on major international political and economic issues. Headed by Thierry de Montbrial since its founding in 1979, Ifri is a non- governmental, non-profit organization. As an independent think tank, Ifri sets its own research agenda, publishing its findings regularly for a global audience. Taking an interdisciplinary approach, Ifri brings together political and economic decision-makers, researchers and internationally renowned experts to animate its debate and research activities. The opinions expressed in this text are the responsibility of the author alone. ISBN: 978-2-36567-932-9 © All rights reserved, Ifri, 2018 How to quote this document: Corentin Brustlein, “The Erosion of Strategic Stability and the Future of Arms Control in Europe”, Proliferation Papers, No. 60, November 2018. Ifri 27 rue de la Procession 75740 Paris Cedex 15 – FRANCE Tel.: +33 (0)1 40 61 60 00 – Fax: +33 (0)1 40 61 60 60 Email: [email protected] Website: Ifri.org Author Dr. Corentin Brustlein is the Director of the Security Studies Center at the French Institute of International Relations. His work focuses on nuclear and conventional deterrence, arms control, military balances, and U.S. and French defense policies. Before assuming his current position, he had been a research fellow at Ifri since 2008 and the head of Ifri’s Deterrence and Proliferation Program since 2010. -
Does It Promote Pakistan's Strategic Interests?
07 “Strategic Depth”: Does It Promote Pakistan’s Strategic Interests? : Raheem ul Haque fied Pakistan's insecurity syndrome leading to an illusive In assessing Pakistan's response to the ongoing 'global search for Strategic Depth , third, although it shook the war on terrorism' in Afghanistan, this paper presents two foundations of "Two Nation Theory", Pakistan still began sets of arguments; first, I argue that Pakistan's strategic to drift towards Islamization through invoked fears of interests constituting secure and peaceful borders along 'Hindu India'. All this obliterated Jinnah's vision of liberal, with internal strength, development and prosperity, are secular and democratic Pakistan. Although the process annulled rather than furthered by the Strategic Depth had begun with the adoption of Objectives Resolution in policy framework, adopted and pursued for the last three 1949, anti-Ahemdia riots in 1953, Pakistan's joining of decades. Although this framework has allowed Pakistan anti- Communist block, SEATO and CENTO pacts, how to maintain a semblance of regional military power bal ever, it accelerated through State sanction in post 1971 ance with India, yet it has led to a rise of extremism and Pakistan with the passage of bill (1974) declaring Ahmedis militancy within Pakistani society and to a loss of internal as 'non-Muslim', the religious parties led PNA movement sovereignty. Today, this flawed policy has created condi against the PPP government in March-April 1977 and tions that have made Pakistan a sanctuary for ideologi General Zia- ul Haq's military coup in July—who was quick cal non-state actors. Second, with an in-depth analysis to announce that Pakistan was an 'Ideological State'2, and scrutiny of factors and actors in the three decades thus Jinnah's vision of Pakistan was deconstructed3. -
Pakistan's Future Policy Towards Afghanistan. a Look At
DIIS REPORT 2011:08 DIIS REPORT PAKISTAN’S FUTURE POLICY TOWARDS AFGHANISTAN A LOOK AT STRATEGIC DEPTH, MILITANT MOVEMENTS AND THE ROLE OF INDIA AND THE US Qandeel Siddique DIIS REPORT 2011:08 DIIS REPORT DIIS . DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES 1 DIIS REPORT 2011:08 © Copenhagen 2011, Qandeel Siddique and DIIS Danish Institute for International Studies, DIIS Strandgade 56, DK-1401 Copenhagen, Denmark Ph: +45 32 69 87 87 Fax: +45 32 69 87 00 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.diis.dk Cover photo: The Khyber Pass linking Pakistan and Afghanistan. © Luca Tettoni/Robert Harding World Imagery/Corbis Layout: Allan Lind Jørgensen Printed in Denmark by Vesterkopi AS ISBN 978-87-7605-455-7 Price: DKK 50.00 (VAT included) DIIS publications can be downloaded free of charge from www.diis.dk Hardcopies can be ordered at www.diis.dk This publication is part of DIIS’s Defence and Security Studies project which is funded by a grant from the Danish Ministry of Defence. Qandeel Siddique, MSc, Research Assistant, DIIS [email protected] 2 DIIS REPORT 2011:08 Contents Abstract 6 1. Introduction 7 2. Pakistan–Afghanistan relations 12 3. Strategic depth and the ISI 18 4. Shift of jihad theatre from Kashmir to Afghanistan 22 5. The role of India 41 6. The role of the United States 52 7. Conclusion 58 Defence and Security Studies at DIIS 70 3 DIIS REPORT 2011:08 Acronyms AJK Azad Jammu and Kashmir ANP Awani National Party FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas FDI Foreign Direct Investment FI Fidayeen Islam GHQ General Headquarters GoP Government -
Beyond Emboldenment Beyond Mark S
Beyond Emboldenment Beyond Mark S. Bell Emboldenment How Acquiring Nuclear Weapons Can Change Foreign Policy What happens to the foreign policies of states when they acquire nuclear weapons? This question has grown in importance as new nuclear powers have emerged and other states have moved closer to joining the nuclear club. Indeed, determining the costs that the United States and others should be prepared to pay to prevent nuclear proliferation hinges on assessing how nuclear weapons affect the be- havior of the states that acquire them and how dangerous those effects are. If states expand their interests in world politics or act more aggressively in the aftermath of nuclear acquisition, preventing nuclear proliferation should be a higher priority than if nuclear weapons do not signiªcantly affect the for- eign policies of the states that acquire them. Crafting deterrence strategies for new nuclear states also requires understanding the foreign policy effects that nuclear weapons are likely to have in a given case.1 Despite its importance, the question of how nuclear weapons affect the for- eign policies of the states that acquire them has not been satisfactorily an- swered. The literature on nuclear weapons has generally examined the effects of nuclear weapons on outcomes other than foreign policy; has focused on the effects of nuclear weapons on the calculations of other states rather than the acquiring state; and has often sought to explore how states with nuclear weapons should behave rather than how they do behave. The literature that has examined the effects of nuclear weapons on foreign policy has tended to conºate effects of nuclear weapons under catch-all terms such as “em- boldenment” while ignoring other potential effects of nuclear acquisition. -
TNSR and Discusses the Joys and Pains of the Review Process, Giving Some Advice for Both Reviewers and Those Submitting Their Work for Review
ISSN 2576-1021 ISSN 2576-1153 Print: Online: Texas National Security Review CLARITY & QUAGMIRE Volume 2 Issue 2 MASTHEAD TABLE OF CONTENTS Staff: The Foundation Publisher: Managing Editor: 04 Reviewing Blues Ryan Evans Megan G. Oprea, PhD Assistant Editor: Francis J. Gavin Autumn Brewington Editor-in-Chief: Associate Editors: William Inboden, PhD Galen Jackson, PhD Van Jackson, PhD Stephen Tankel, PhD The Scholar 10 When Do Leaders Change Course? Theories of Success and the American Withdrawal Editorial Board: from Beirut, 1983–1984 Alexandra T. Evans and A. Bradley Potter Chair, Editorial Board: Editor-in-Chief: 40 How to Think About Nuclear Crises Francis J. Gavin, PhD William Inboden, PhD Mark S. Bell and Julia Macdonald Robert J. Art, PhD Beatrice Heuser, PhD Patrick Porter, PhD Richard Betts, PhD Michael C. Horowitz, PhD Thomas Rid, PhD John Bew, PhD Richard H. Immerman, PhD Joshua Rovner, PhD Nigel Biggar, PhD Robert Jervis, PhD Brent E. Sasley, PhD The Strategist Philip Bobbitt, JD, PhD Colin Kahl, PhD Elizabeth N. Saunders, PhD Hal Brands, PhD Jonathan Kirshner, PhD Kori Schake, PhD 68 After the Responsible Stakeholder, What? Debating America’s China Strategy Joshua W. Busby, PhD James Kraska, SJD Michael N. Schmitt, DLitt Hal Brands and Zack Cooper Robert Chesney, JD Stephen D. Krasner, PhD Jacob N. Shapiro, PhD Eliot Cohen, PhD Sarah Kreps, PhD Sandesh Sivakumaran, PhD 82 Crossroads: Counter-terrorism and the Internet Audrey Kurth Cronin, PhD Melvyn P. Leffler, PhD Sarah Snyder, PhD Brian Fishman Theo Farrell, PhD Fredrik Logevall, PhD Bartholomew Sparrow, PhD 102 The End of the End of History: Reimagining U.S. -
Won't You Be My Neighbor
Won’t You Be My Neighbor: Syria, Iraq and the Changing Strategic Context in the Middle East S TEVEN SIMON Council on Foreign Relations March 2009 www.usip.org Date www.usip.org UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE – WORKING PAPER Won’t You Be My Neighbor UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE 1200 17th Street NW, Suite 200 Washington, DC 20036-3011 © 2009 by the United States Institute of Peace. The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Institute of Peace, which does not advocate specific policy positions. This is a working draft. Comments, questions, and permission to cite should be directed to the author ([email protected]) or [email protected]. This is a working draft. Comments, questions, and permission to cite should be directed to the author ([email protected]) or [email protected]. UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE – WORKING PAPER Won’t You Be My Neighbor About this Report Iraq's neighbors are playing a major role—both positive and negative—in the stabilization and reconstruction of post-Saddam Iraq. In an effort to prevent conflict across Iraq's borders and in order to promote positive international and regional engagement, USIP has initiated high-level, non-official dialogue between foreign policy and national security figures from Iraq, its neighbors and the United States. The Institute’s "Iraq and its Neighbors" project has also convened a group of leading specialists on the geopolitics of the region to assess the interests and influence of the countries surrounding Iraq and to explain the impact of these transformed relationships on U.S. -
Deterrence and First-Strike Stability in Space
THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Project AIR FORCE View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Deterrence and First-Strike Stability in Space A Preliminary Assessment Forrest E. -
Glenn Snyder's Deterrence Theory and NATO's Deterrence Strategy
Glenn Snyder’s Deterrence Theory and NATO’s Deterrence Strategy during the Cold War (YAMASHITA Aihito) Glenn Snyder’s Deterrence Theory and NATO’s Deterrence Strategy during the Cold War Col. YAMASHITA Aihito Director, Center for Air and Space Power Strategic Studies Introduction The main strategic issues on NATO that the U.S. and Europe faced during the Cold War, when they are marshaled from the perspective of deterrence particularly for Europe, should be summarized as the questions of how to deter invasion by the Soviet Union, how to secure extended deterrence by the U.S., and in particular, how to enhance the credibility of the U.S. deterrence by punishment.1 NATO’s conventional military forces dominated by NATO’s ground troops were extremely vulnerable to those of the Soviet Union, which meant a significant disparity.2 Therefore, extended deterrence by the U.S. was thought to be essential for NATO in order to produce deterrent effect on the Soviet Union in the circumstances of the significant disparity in the conventional military forces dominated by ground troops. However, after the Soviet Union acquired the ability to attack the U.S. mainland with its nuclear weapons (typically represented by the situation of mutual assured destruction), Europe began to doubt the effectiveness of extended deterrence by the U.S. In this context, various theories including “stability-instability paradox” and “entrapment-abandonment” were discussed. 69 Air Power Studies (vol. 6) The concern Europe felt was connected with the controversy over the positioning theory of nuclear weapons in the U.S., that is, how the nature of nuclear weapons should be defined. -
Pakistani Nuclear Doctrine and the Dangers of Strategic Myopia
PAKISTANI NUCLEAR DOCTRINE AND THE DANGERS OF STRATEGIC MYOPIA Timothy D. Hoyt The formal introduction of nuclear weapons into South Asian regional security raises important questions about the stability of the region. As two traditionally hostile states induct nuclear weapons and so- phisticated delivery systems into their militaries, what will keep them from utilizing these new weapons for coercion or warfare? Proliferation “opti- mists” argue that states will be deterred from destabilizing actions by the inherent mismatch in costs and benefits or risks and potential gains from challenging a nuclear-armed adversary.1 Proliferation “pessimists” point to the dangers of the spread of nuclear weapons; the myriad of things that can go wrong once nuclear weapons are introduced into an already heated con- flict situation; and the lack of careful thought and planning that might go into the development, deployment, and use of nuclear forces.2 Timothy D. Hoyt is Visiting Assistant Professor for the Security Stud- ies Program, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C., and Professor of Strategy in the College of Continuing Education, a nonresident program of the U.S. Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island. The conclusions expressed here are the author’s own and do not reflect the opin- ions of the Naval War College or any other official organization. Asian Survey, 41:6, pp. 956–977. ISSN: 0004–4687 Ó 2001 by The Regents of the University of California. All rights reserved. Send Requests for Permission to Reprint to: Rights and Permissions, University of California Press, Journals Division, 2000 Center St., Ste. 303, Berkeley, CA 94704–1223. -
H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable, Vol. 7, No. 2 (2014)
H-Diplo | ISSF Roundtable, Volume VII, No. 2 (2014) A production of H-Diplo with the journals Security Studies, International Security, Journal of Strategic Studies, and the International Studies Association’s Security Studies Section (ISSS). http://www.issforum.org H-Diplo/ISSF Editors: James McAllister and Diane Labrosse H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable and Web/Production Editor: George Fujii Commissioned for H-Diplo/ISSF by James McAllister Introduction by James McAllister Hal Brands. What Good is Grand Strategy: Power and Purpose in American Statecraft from Harry S. Truman to George W. Bush. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2014. ISBN: 978-0- 8014-5246-8 (hardcover, $29.95). Published by H-Diplo/ISSF on 17 October 2014 Stable URL: http://issforum.org/ISSF/PDF/ISSF-Roundtable-7-2.pdf Contents Introduction by James McAllister, Williams College ................................................................ 2 Review by Francis J. Gavin, MIT ................................................................................................ 4 Review by Steven Metz, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute ............................ 8 Review by Joshua Rovner, Southern Methodist University .................................................... 11 Author’s Response by Hal Brands, Duke University ............................................................... 18 © Copyright 2014 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable Reviews, Vol. VII, No. 2 -
Mar–Apr 2013, Volume 105, Number 4
SEPT–OCT 2011, v OlumE 104, numb Er 1 m E xi CO C i T y … grav E CO n CE rn S … hubbl E SP a CESC a PES … indian ar T … g E r T rud E himm E lfarb mar–a in theatres march 22nd P r 2013 r mar–aPr 2013, v OlumE 105, numb Er 4 UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO ALUMNI MAGAZINE STREET DATE: FEB/MARCH DUE DATE: 1/22 non-bleed: 6.4375” x 8.825”, 4-Color JANUARY 22, 2013 1:30 PM EST UCH_MAR_APRIL_covers and spine_v4.indd 1 2/25/13 10:40 AM 130315_FocusFeatures_Chicago.indd 1 1/23/13 8:40 AM alumniweekend June –, CELEBRATE EXCEPTIONAL UCHICAGO Register today for Alumni Weekend 2013. • HONOR outstanding achievement at the 72nd Annual Alumni Awards Ceremony. • SHOW YOUR PRIDE in UChicago at the Alumni Parade. • CELEBRATE the academic rigor and challenges that formed your UChicago experience. • REDISCOVER the intellectual destination that is UChicago. Visit alumniweekend.uchicago.edu to register today. uestions? Call 800.955.0065, e-mail [email protected], or visit alumniweekend.uchicago.edu. AlumniIFC_AlumniWeekendAd_4c.indd Weekend Mar-Apr ad_12.11.indd 4 1 2/27/13 11:1811:19 AM Features 32 adrift in the city On walks across Mexico City, historian Mauricio Tenorio Trillo finds a path to the past. By Elizabeth Station 38 decomposure An alumna mortician, medievalist, and video sage tries to change the way Americans think about death. By Michael Washburn, AM’02 46 raised voices The Sahmat collective galvanizes artists across India to create work that Mar–aPr 2013 vOLuME 105, N uMBEr 4 resists divisive politics. -
China's Evolving Nuclear Posture Part I - Background and Benchmark
China’s Evolving Nuclear Posture Part I – Background and Benchmark Donald A. Neill Strategic Analysis Section DRDC CORA TM 2011-148 September 2011 Defence R&D Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis China Team Sponsor: Strategic Joint Staff China's evolving nuclear posture Part I - Background and Benchmark D.A. Neill DRDC CORA The reported results, their interpretation, and any opinions expressed herein, remain those of the author and do not represent, or otherwise reflect, any official position of DND or the government of Canada. Defence R&D Canada – CORA Technical Memorandum DRDC CORA TM 2011-148 September 2011 Principal Author Original signed by D.A. Neill, Ph.D. D.A. Neill, Ph.D. Strategic Analyst Approved by Original signed by G. Smolynec G. Smolynec Section Head, Strategic Analysis Approved for release by Original signed by P. Comeau P. Comeau Chief Scientist This paper has been produced under Thrust 10a as part of the China/Asia ARP. Defence R&D Canada – Centre for Operational Research and Analysis (CORA) © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of National Defence, 2011 © Sa Majesté la Reine (en droit du Canada), telle que représentée par le ministre de la Défense nationale, 2011 Abstract …….. This paper is the first part of a larger study the goal of which is to determine the trajectory of China’s nuclear weapons policy, strategy, capability and doctrine. It discusses the origins, scope and methodology of the proposed study, and provides an overview of the evolution of US nuclear strategy in order to establish a baseline for discussing why, and to what extent, China’s nuclear evolution has differed from US nuclear thinking.