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Document Title Transport for NSW Cost-Benefit Analysis Guide This guide applies to all agencies within the NSW Transport cluster Evaluation & Assurance Group Finance & Investment Corporate Services 2019 | Version: 2.0 Foreword Customers are at the centre of everything we do at Transport for NSW (TfNSW). We’re delivering the largest transport infrastructure program this nation has ever seen − $55.6 billion of investment over four years to 2022-23 for game-changing projects like Sydney Metro, light rail, motorways and road upgrades.1 The investment decisions we make today will deliver benefits to the community for decades to come. When making investments for the people of NSW we need to use an evidence-based approach which considers all costs and benefits. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) does exactly that. It balances a complex set of community considerations against limited resources and is the government’s key tool for promoting value-for-money decision-making. The Transport for NSW Cost-Benefit Analysis Guide (Guide) sets out the principles, concepts, methodology and procedures to use when conducting CBA for NSW Transport cluster initiatives. Importantly, the Guide steps through a robust framework for decision-making, as well as how to organise and present the evidence that supports them. It is supported by a suite of products including user-friendly models and recommended economic parameter values. The Guide aligns project evaluation to Future Transport Strategy 2056 outcomes, promoting their consideration from project conception. The use of this guide is encouraged to ensure we consistently put value-for-money and outcomes for the community at the centre of our expenditure decisions. The Guide is being continuously improved. Values are updated annually and methods periodically reviewed. We welcome all feedback that can help us improve this document. Please direct this to the TfNSW Evaluation and Economic Advisory team at: [email protected] 1 NSW Treasury 2019-20 Budget Paper, Chapter 5 TfNSW Cost-Benefit Analysis Guide – 2019 2 Contents Foreword .................................................................................................................... 2 Contents ..................................................................................................................... 3 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Cost-benefit analysis ................................................................................ 5 1.2 Objective of this document ....................................................................... 5 1.3 Alignment to other guidance documents ................................................... 5 1.4 How to use this document ........................................................................ 6 2 Why is a cost-benefit analysis needed? ................................................................ 7 2.1 What is cost-benefit analysis? .................................................................. 7 2.2 What is a business case? ......................................................................... 7 2.3 When is a cost-benefit analysis required?................................................. 7 2.4 What is a CBA used for? .......................................................................... 8 3 The scope of a cost-benefit analysis ................................................................... 10 3.1 Ensuring strategic alignment with Future Transport 2056 ....................... 10 3.2 Determining the scope of analysis .......................................................... 12 3.3 Determining a preferred option ............................................................... 13 3.4 Additional resources ............................................................................... 13 4 Cost-benefit analysis concepts ............................................................................ 16 4.1 Cost-benefit analysis concepts ............................................................... 16 4.2 Concepts in practice – a road congestion example ................................. 20 5 The key steps in doing a cost-benefit analysis .................................................... 22 5.1 The cost-benefit analysis process ........................................................... 22 5.2 Step 1: State the objectives .................................................................... 22 5.3 Step 2: Define the base case and develop options ................................. 24 5.4 Step 3: Identify costs and benefits .......................................................... 26 5.5 Step 4: Value the costs and benefits....................................................... 28 5.6 Step 5: Identifying qualitative factors and distributional impacts .............. 29 5.7 Step 6: Assess risks and test sensitivities ............................................... 30 5.8 Step 7: Assess the net benefit ................................................................ 30 5.9 Step 8: Report the results ....................................................................... 31 5.10 Step 9: Benefits realisation management ............................................... 33 6 Common mistakes and issues ............................................................................ 34 6.1 Unclear objectives and missing options .................................................. 34 6.2 Setting the base case ............................................................................. 34 6.3 Optimism bias and justification versus evaluation ................................... 34 6.4 Transfers, netting and double counting ................................................... 34 6.5 Confusing real, nominal, and discounted prices ...................................... 35 6.6 Separating stocks and flows ................................................................... 35 6.7 Misalignment of scope, costs, and benefits............................................. 35 6.8 Confusing costs and benefits .................................................................. 35 6.9 Treatment of disbenefits ......................................................................... 35 6.10 Use of marginal and average values....................................................... 36 6.11 Failing the newspaper, pub and super tests ............................................ 36 7 When to ask for help ........................................................................................... 37 7.1 Where and when advice is most useful in the CBA process ................... 37 7.2 Who to ask ............................................................................................. 37 TfNSW Cost-Benefit Analysis Guide – 2019 3 A. Typical transport benefits .................................................................................... 38 B. Glossary.............................................................................................................. 40 C. List of acronyms .................................................................................................. 43 D. Bibliography ....................................................................................................... 44 TfNSW Cost-Benefit Analysis Guide – 2019 4 1 Introduction 1.1 Cost-benefit analysis Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is the preferred evaluation method of the NSW Government and the NSW Transport cluster. It is a required part of a business case to support funding proposals, in line with NSW Government policy. It aims to measure the full impacts - economic, social and environmental - of a decision on the NSW community, including individuals, firms and the government. CBA considers both qualitative and quantitative impacts of an initiative and estimates the costs and benefits, wherever practicable, in monetary terms. CBA measures the incremental costs and benefits involved in an initiative, relative to a situation without the proposed action. 1.2 Objective of this document The NSW Transport cluster needs to make robust expenditure decisions − decisions that are maintaining and evolving the transport network and delivering benefits to the community of NSW for decades to come. The Transport for NSW Cost-Benefit Analysis Guide2 (Guide) provides a consistent, best-practice framework to help the NSW Transport cluster conduct evaluations. This document is intended to support clear thinking, good judgement and informed decision-making. It includes recommendations for CBA as part of business cases within the NSW Transport cluster, but is not intended to enforce blind compliance with a particular approach where it is not applicable. It is meant to guide, support, complement and enhance, rather than replace, the user’s independent thought and understanding. 1.3 Alignment to other guidance documents This document should be read in conjunction with the Future Transport 2056 Strategy, which sets the 40 year vision, direction and outcomes for transport in NSW, and will guide transport investment over the longer term. It promotes flexibility and agility in the investment planning process, which should be reflected across the investment and planning approach, including in the CBA. This document aligns with the high-level guidance in NSW Treasury’s NSW Government Guide to Cost-Benefit Analysis and provides specific advice tailored to transport initiatives. The Australian Government coordinates a national approach to project assessment, with the
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