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Evaluation of the Bank's Country Strategy and Program 2002–2015 - Summary Report IDEV Country Strategy Evaluation, October 2016

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Evaluation of the Bank's Country Strategy and Program 2002–2015 - Summary Report IDEV Country Strategy Evaluation, October 2016 Country Strategy Evaluation Zambia: An IDEV Evaluation of the Bank's Country Strategy and Program 2002–2015 Summary Report October 2016 Evaluation Syntheses IDEV conducts different types of evaluations to achieve its Impact Evaluations Sector Evaluations (Public Sector) strategic objectives Project Performance Evaluations Thematic Evaluations Project Cluster Evaluations Project Performance Evaluations (Private Sector) Corporate Evaluations Regional Integration Strategy Evaluations Country Strategy Evaluation Country Strategy Evaluations Country Strategy Evaluation Zambia: An IDEV Evaluation of the Bank's Country Strategy and Program 2002–2015 Summary Report October 2016 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Task manager Madhusoodhanan Mampuzhasseril, Principal Evaluation Officer Team members Erika Maclaughlin, Long Term Consultant, Foday Turay, Chief Evaluation Officer, Latefa Camara, Long Term Consultant, James Sackey, Consultant Consultant Agrer S.a. - N.v., Belgium. Paolo Liebl Von Schirach, Team Leader. Members: Baptiste Forquy, Habtom Asmelash, Bernd Drechsler, John Murphy, Charles Haanyika, Vikramdityasing Bissoonauthsing External peer reviewer Bruce Murray, former Director General, Operations Evaluation Department, Asian Development Bank Knowledge management officers Jayne Musumba, Principal Knowledge Management Officer Jerry Lemogo, Junior Consultant, Communications and Knowledge Management Special thanks to Norad – The Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation Division manager Samer Hachem Evaluator-General Rakesh Nangia © 2016 African Development Bank Group All rights reserved – Published October 2016 Zambia: Evaluation of the Bank's Country Strategy and Program 2002–2015 - Summary Report IDEV Country Strategy Evaluation, October 2016 Disclaimer Unless expressly stated otherwise, the findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the various authors of the publication and are not necessarily those of the Management of the African Development Bank (the “Bank”) and the African Development Fund (the “Fund”), Boards of Directors, Boards of Governors or the countries they represent. Use of this publication is at the reader’s sole risk. The content of this publication is provided without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including without limitation warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non- infringement of third-party rights. The Bank specifically does not make any warranties or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or current validity of any information contained in the publication. Under no circumstances including, but not limited to, negligence, shall the Bank be liable for any loss, damage, liability or expense incurred or suffered which is claimed to result directly or indirectly from use of this publication or reliance on its content. This publication may contain advice, opinions, and statements of various information and content providers. The Bank does not represent or endorse the accuracy, completeness, reliability or current validity of any advice, opinion, statement or other information provided by any information or content provider or other person or entity. Reliance upon any such opinion, advice, statement, or other information shall also be at the reader’s own risk. About the AfDB The overarching objective of the African Development Bank Group is to spur sustainable economic development and social progress in its regional member countries (RMCs), thus contributing to poverty reduction. The Bank Group achieves this objective by mobilizing and allocating resources for investment in RMCs and providing policy advice and technical assistance to support development efforts. About Independent Development Evaluation (IDEV) The mission of Independent Development Evaluation at the AfDB is to enhance the development effectiveness of the institution in its regional member countries through independent and instrumental evaluations and partnerships for sharing knowledge. Independent Development Evaluation (IDEV) African Development Bank Group AfDB Headquarters Avenue Joseph Anoma, 01 BP 1387, Abidjan 01, Côte d’Ivoire Phone: +225 20 26 20 41 E-mail: [email protected] idev.afdb.org Design & layout: CRÉON – www.creondesign.net Original language: English – Translation: AfDB Language Services Department Contents Acknowledgments ii Abbreviations and Acronyms v Executive Summary 1 Management Response 9 Introduction 22 Background 23 Economic Context 23 Social Context 24 Development Challenges 24 Overview of the Bank's Country Strategies and Portfolio 26 Overview of Strategic Priorities 26 Project Portfolio 26 Evaluation Approach and Methodology 29 Evaluation Issues and Questions 29 Methodology and Lines of Evidence 29 Evaluation Findings 30 Relevance 30 Effectiveness 32 Efficiency 45 Sustainability 49 Crosscutting Themes 52 Quality at Entry 55 Supervision 58 Leveraging and Co-financing 59 Conclusions and Recommendations 61 Annexes 67 Contents List of Figures Figure 1 Number of operations and amount approved (2002–2015) 27 Figure 2 Number of operations and amount for sectors (2002–2015) 27 Figure 3 Zambia Corruption Perceptions Index scores (2007–2015) 37 Figure 4 Zambia CPIA Scores - Accountability Transparency and Corruption (2007–2015) 37 Figure 5 Ease of Doing Business Indicators (number of days) 38 Figure 6 No. of new businesses registered during 2007-2015 42 Figure 7 Domestic credit to the private sector (percent GDP) 2006-2014 42 Figure 8 Access to improved water and sanitation source 44 Figure 9 Disbursement Ratios – Zambia and AfDB (2008-2014) 48 List of Tables Table 1 Relevance rating 30 Table 2 Effectiveness rating 32 Table 3 PEFA Scores - Procurement and External Audit 36 Table 4 Progress on key PEFA indicators 39 Table 5 Planned and Delivered Knowledge Work 40 Table 6 Progress against selected macroeconomic indicators 43 Table 7 Progress on selected health and education indicators (2002-2014) 45 Table 8 Relevance rating 46 Table 9 Sustainability rating 49 Table 10 Regional Tariff Levels 51 Table 11 Crosscutting Issue Rating 53 Table 12 Operational selectivity in Zambia CSPs 56 Abbreviations and Acronyms v Abbreviations and Acronyms ADB African Development Bank IMF International Monetary Fund ADF African Development Fund ITPC Itezhi-Tezhi Power Corporation CEDR Comprehensive Evaluation of the Bank's JASZ Joint Assistance Strategy for Zambia Development Results JICA Japanese International Cooperation CETZAM Christian Enterprise Trust of Zambia Agency CPIA Country Policy and Institutional MoFNP Ministry of Finance and National Assessment Planning (Zambia) CSP Country Strategy Paper MPSAs Ministry, Provinces and Spending Agencies CSPCR CSP Completion Report MSME Micro Small and Medium Enterprises CWMIP Community Water Management Improvement Project NRWSSP National Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project DAC Development Assistance Committee OAG Office of the Auditor General DAPP Development Assistance from Person to Person OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development DO Development Objective PAF Performance Assessment Framework EPC Engineering, Procurement and Construction PCGF Partial Credit Guarantee Facility Country Strategy Evaluation ERB Energy Regulation Board PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan PEMFA Public Expenditure Management and An IDEV Financial Accountability FI Financial Intermediary PPA Power Purchasing Agreement FNDP Fifth National Development Plan PPP Public-Private Partnership GNP Gross National Product PRBS Poverty Reduction Budget Support GDP Gross Domestic Product PRODAP Project to Support Lake Tanganyika GRZ Government of Republic of Zambia Integrated Regional Development HIPC Highly Indebted Poor Countries Program HRH Human Resources for Health RDA Roads Development Agency ICT Information Communication Technology SIP Small Scale Irrigation Project IFMIS Integrated Financial Management SME Small and Medium Enterprises Information System SNDP Sixth National Development Plan vi Zambia: Evaluation of the Bank's Country Strategy and Program 2002–2015 - Summary Report TA Technical Assistance ZANACO Zambia National Commercial Bank Plc. TSA Treasury Single Account ZCCM Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines UA Unit of Account (of African Development ZESCO Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation Bank) ZMFO Zambia Field Office (of the African USD US Dollar Development Bank) WHO World Health Organization ZMW Zambian Kwacha WSS Water Supply and Sanitation ZPPA Zambia Public Procurement Agency XSR Extended Supervision Report Executive Summary 1 Executive Summary This report presents a summary of findings, four studies, three emergency operations and two conclusions and recommendations from an technical assistance grants. In addition to these evaluation of the Bank's Country Strategies and national operations, there were 19 multinational Program in Zambia over the period 2002–2015. The operations amounting to UA 373.25 million where evaluation was conducted to support the preparation Zambia was involved in varying degrees. The of the Zambia Country Strategy 2016–2020 and evaluation focused on national projects and examined contribute to IDEV's comprehensive evaluation of the regional projects only where there was a tangible Bank's development results (CEDR). The evaluation national component. Over the years, the portfolio seeks to assess the relevance and performance of has grown in terms of numbers and the amount the Bank's strategic interventions
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