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US-India Security Cooperation COVER PHOTO JIM WATSON/AFP/GETTY IMAGES OCTOBER 2016 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 202 887 0200 | www.csis.org Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 4501 Forbes Boulevard Lanham, MD 20706 301 459 3366 | www.rowman.com U.S.-India Security Cooperation Progress and Promise for the Next Administration AUTHORS Kathleen H. Hicks John Schaus Richard M. Rossow Natalie Tecimer Andrew Metrick Sarah Watson ISBN 978-1-4422-5973-7 A Report of the Ë|xHSLEOCy259737z CSIS INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM v*:+:!:+:! AND THE WADHWANI CHAIR IN U.S.-INDIA STUDIES Blank OCTOBER 2016 U.S.- India Security Cooperation Pro gress and Promise for the Next Administration AUTHORS Kathleen H. Hicks John Schaus Richard M. Rossow Natalie Tecimer Andrew Metrick Sarah Watson A REPORT OF THE CSIS INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM AND THE WADHWANI CHAIR IN U.S.- INDIA STUDIES Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 594-66395_ch00_3P.indd 1 10/1/16 9:40 AM About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organ ization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full- time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analy sis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in November 2015. Former U.S. deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre has served as the Center’s president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2016 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-1-4422-5973-7 (pb); 978-1-4422-5974-4 (eBook) Center for Strategic & International Studies Rowman & Littlefield 1616 Rhode Island Ave nue, NW 4501 Forbes Boulevard Washington, DC 20036 Lanham, MD 20706 202-887-0200 | www . csis . org 301 - 459 - 3366 | www . rowman . com 594-66395_ch00_3P.indd 2 10/1/16 9:40 AM Contents iv Acknowl edgments v Executive Summary vii Background 1 CHAPTER 1 | Interests and Outlook 2 Converging U.S.- India Interests 6 Geopo liti cal Outlook 6 East and Southeast Asia 10 Af ghan i stan and Pakistan 18 ­Middle East 25 East Africa and the Western Indian Ocean 33 CHAPTER 2 | Strategic Issues 33 Defense Issues 45 Domestic Counterterrorism 50 Narcotics 54 Global Commons 57 Risks 60 CHAPTER 3 | Recommendations 61 Short-Term Recommendations 63 Mid-Term Recommendations 65 About the Authors III 594-66395_ch00_3P.indd 3 10/1/16 9:40 AM Acknowl edgments This proj ect would not have been pos si ble without the close cooperation and collaboration between the International Security Program and the Wadhwani Chair in U.S.- India Policy Studies, both at CSIS. Kathleen Hicks and Richard Rossow thank the many experts throughout both the Delhi and Washington policy communities who contributed to this report. The study team, led by John Schaus, and including Sarah Watson, Natalie Tecimer, and Andrew Metrick, provided the initial content and many of the concepts that ultimately resulted in this report. We would also like to thank Tanya Jain, David Hookey, and Samir Nair for research and logistical support. We express our thanks to our partner in India, Hemant Singh of the Delhi Policy Group (then of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations [ICRIER]), whose leadership and vision served as the springboard for development of this study and whose collaboration provided us the opportunity to explore a future of partnership between the United States and India with some of India’s leading strategic thinkers. This study has been improved by the insights from many current and former officials and officers in both countries. In partic u lar, the authors would like to thank Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal (ret.), Major General P. K. Chakravorty (ret.), Major General Dhruv Katoch (ret.), and Air Vice Marshal Arvind Verma (ret.) for their time and creativity to provide specific vignettes for this report. We would also like to thank the many individuals throughout the U.S. government and the Indian government who made themselves available to discuss issues and refine our estimation of the current status of the relationship between the United States and India, as well as the potential for it to continue to grow. We thank the members of our Washington- based review group who provided insights, expertise, and counsel throughout the pro cess. Their wisdom enabled us to learn from the past as we try to lay out a common path for the future. Last, though certainly not least, we thank the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation for the generous support that made pos si ble this report and the study that contributed to it. Though the conclusions and recommendations of this report remain those of the authors, the study would not have been pos si ble without the assistance and guidance of those listed here. IV 594-66395_ch00_3P.indd 4 10/1/16 9:40 AM Executive Summary Overcoming the nadir that followed India’s nuclear test and the propensity toward the safety of inaction within both governments, the United States and India have forged cooperation on a range of issues, from security to economic to climate change. Defense trade has grown from zero to more than $10 billion over the past de cade. The signing of the Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia- Pacific and Indian Ocean Region, the renewal of the Defense Cooperation Framework Agreement, and the U.S. rebalance to Asia and the Pacific all widen the aperture of possibility for increasing cooperation. Bilateral ties have strengthened noticeably since the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in May 2014 and his subsequent emphasis on improving the relationship— albeit within some con- straints. The relationship is also helped along by mutual concern over China. Nowhere has coop- eration been greater than in the area of security cooperation. The question now is whether the bureaucracy on both sides can take advantage of the opening quickly enough and thoroughly enough to make improved security relations endure. The relationship has progressed furthest and created the most promise in defense trade, where it appears that the United States and India are on the cusp of signing foundational agreements that will allow for India to access some of the United States’ most advanced technologies and facilitate cooperation during joint exercises and potential operations. The governments agreed to the text of the first of these foundational agreements, the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), in June 2016. Despite these impor tant achievements, many obstacles and logjams remain. After 18 months, the reinvigorated Defense Trade and Technology Initiative continues to work on an expanding set of “pathfinder” proj ects, but pro gress is slow. Joint working groups on jet engines and aircraft carrier technology remain high in potential, though long term in nature. U.S.- India cooperation on Af ghan i stan is growing, but remains difficult because of Pakistan’s concerns about its larger southeastern neighbor and, from the Indian perspective, U.S. engagement with Pakistan under- mines the rationale for operational alignment. Delhi is also worried that a potential warming of V 594-66395_ch00_3P.indd 5 10/1/16 9:40 AM relations between the United States and China could quickly undercut Washington’s willingness to deepen its partnership with India. The win dow of opportunity in the U.S.- India relationship presented by the energy and focus of Prime Minister Modi may at some point narrow as his administration must address— and deliver—on a range of domestic priorities in advance of state and national elections. Given the approaching end of the Obama administration and the “end of the honeymoon” for Prime Minister Modi, pro gress will remain difficult. The next administration should not assume this relationship will pro gress on its own. Developing a strong, positive personal relationship between the next U.S. president and Prime Minister Modi will be critical to advancing bilateral interests, as will proving to the United States and Indian bureaucracies that pro gress can be made, even if incrementally. Moreover, there are so many lines of effort between the United States and India that security cooperation risks decelerating under the weight of undue expectations. Prioritization of key initiatives is thus critical, particularly at the Joint Strategic Vision level. Here are six must-do items for the next administration: 1. Hold a presidential meeting with Prime Minster Modi in the new administration’s first 100 days in office (e.g., make clear the importance the United States continues to place on the security and economic relationship). 2. If not already concluded, complete the foundational agreements necessary to deepen defense interoperability and trade. 3. Establish a quadrilateral security dialogue involving the United States, India, Japan, and Australia. 4. Work with India to enhance its naval capabilities in the Indian Ocean to be on par with capabilities of the United States, beginning with maritime domain awareness.
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