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Home , Carly Fiorina, Jim Webb, Tom Cotton

GALLUP POLL View of the Confederate flag There’s a sharp divide between how Republicans and Democrats and blacks and whites see the flag. Republicans Democrats White Black POLL CONDUCTED JULY 1-5 78 69 67 69 73 SUNDAY 64 58 54 41 32 27 27 27 19 13 20

Symbol of Symbol of All right for state Not all right for state POLITICS Southern pride racism gov’ts to display gov’ts to display

A WEEKLY LOOK AT THE PEOPLE, POLLS & ISSUES SHAPING THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE ’16 SENATE AN ANALYSIS

THE GOP FIELD Sen. , R-Pa. Who’s in and who’s still Can anybody waiting for the beat this beatable right moment. GOP senator? IN THE RACE » : An- By Al Kamen and Colby Itkowitz nounced March 23 in Lynchburg, Pat Toomey may just be the . luckiest Republican in America. » : He’s a conservative (at least April 7 in Louis- fiscally) senator running for ville. re-election in a purplish state in a » : presidential election year. (if, of course, she clears April 13 in Miami. the hurdle) is » : likely to win Pennsylvania, which May 4 via social hasn’t picked the GOP nominee media. since 1988. By all conventional » : wisdom, Toomey should be a May 4 in Detroit. goner. » Mike Hucka- Yet a series of events this week suggests Toomey may be bee: May 5 in charmed, at least politically. Hope, . His most serious opponent, the » Rick Santo- frenetic former congressman Joe rum: May 27 in Sestak, was caught by a Repub- Pennsylvania. lican campaign tracker bowling » George over small children at a Fourth of July parade. The image of a man Pataki: May 27 so uncontrolled that he trips over in Exeter, New innocent toddlers doesn’t inspire Hampshire. a lot of confidence. » Lindsey Which is why national Demo- Graham: June 1 crats have begged others from in Central, South their party to challenge Sestak. FILE PHOTOS Carolina. So far, only one Democrat Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a top-tier candidate in the Republican field, will announce his candidacy for president Monday. has stepped forward: Allentown » : Mayor Ed Pawlowski. But a Quin- June 4 in Dallas. nipiac University poll found that » : June 85 percent didn’t know enough 15 in Miami. about him to have an opinion. » : And now we may know why. June 16 in Man- Pawlowski was busy contend- ing with a federal investiga- hattan. WALKER’S FOCUS » : tion into his city’s contracting practices. The FBI searched June 24 in a New Allentown City Hall, including Orleans suburb. Pawlowski’s executive suite, last » : week, according to the Morning June 30 in Call newspaper. In the wake of that, on Monday night Pawlowski ON BUSH, RUBIO Livingston, New suspended his campaign. Jersey. And remember when Toomey’s By Dan Balz or tone on immigration, and but his team thinks the calendar sets The Washington Post toughest challenge was going same-sex marriage. Other Repub- up well for Walker. WAITING FOR to come from a rising star, state licans say the momentum he had Iowa is the key: He is leading the THEIR MOMENT Attorney General Kathleen Kane? ADISON, Wis. — Wisconsin earlier has abated. polls there and, as a neighboring » Scott Walker: Well she’s facing possible crimi- Gov. Scott Walker is poised to None of this appears to have un- governor, has easy access to the state. Expected to an- nal charges over allegations that become the 15th Republican settled Walker or his advisers. With His advisers expect him to win the nounce Monday. she leaked secret investigative M to declare his presidential bid, with at a super PAC called “Unintimidated” early next year, then » : information to the press. Expected to an- Meanwhile, Toomey is sitting on least one more candidate expected to — named for the biographical book say he can follow that with top-three his multimillion-dollar campaign enter soon after. But at this point, his Walker published about his battles in finishes in and South nounce July 21. war chest. campaign advisers said this week that Wisconsin — the candidate and his Carolina. They also think Nevada’s » : Even as the political stars align they see just two principal rivals for advisers are brimming with confi- caucuses will be a place to score an Expected to for Toomey — who famously the GOP nomination: former Florida dence as they look ahead to the com- early victory. announce in chased the late senator Arlen governor Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco ing campaign. For months, Walker’s team has been August. Specter from the Republican Party and narrowly defeated Rubio (Fla.). They consider Walker uniquely preparing for a race against Bush’s Sestak in the 2010 tea party Walker will make his intentions equipped among the candidates to money and Rubio’s compelling per- wave — his re-election is still not clear on Monday with an announce- appeal across the spectrum of the sonal story. Advisers said Walker’s re- inevitable. ment and rally in suburban Wauke- Republican Party. “There are three legs cord as governor is more current than Sestak is indefatigable. He’s al- sha County, the heart of Republican of the stool,” campaign manager Rick Bush’s and draws a sharper contrast THE ways going 100 mph with no “off” territory in Wisconsin. The venue Wiley said in an interview. “We play in with President . Rubio DEM switch. And now there’s some FIELD scuttlebutt that Katie McGinty, will be the same place where Walker all three. Who else does?” has attributes that Walker has spoken chief of staff for Democratic Gov. celebrated his victory in a 2012 recall Tea party activists, Wiley said, like about favorably in private conversa- IN THE RACE Tom Wolf and former adviser to election, one more indication that Walker’s fighting style and that he was tions, but the governor’s campaign ad- » Hillary Clin- Vice President Al Gore, is consid- he intends to make his controversial able to win multiple elections while visers consider the first-term senator ton: April 12 via ering a run. battles with public employee unions under siege. His roots as the son of a far less tested. social media. A woman with ties to the in the state the centerpiece of his ap- Baptist minister and his faith give him Walker’s announcement tour will Clinton White House and the full » Bernie Sand- weight of the governor’s mansion peal to conservative activists. a reach into the social conservative take him from Wisconsin to Nevada, ers: April 30 could be the national Democrats’ Walker has weathered repeated wing of the party. South Carolina, New Hampshire and outside U.S. dream come true. controversies as governor and rocky Beyond that, advisers argued that then back to Iowa for several days of Capitol. Unless, of course, Sestak and periods during the past six months — as a second-term governor who has campaigning. » Martin McGinty have a nasty anti-estab- as he has prepared to formally join raised more than $80 million for his His announcement speech will O’Malley: May lishment-vs.-Washington-insider the race. He jumped into the top tier Wisconsin campaigns — Walker also focus heavily on his record in Wiscon- 30 in Baltimore. primary battle, spending all their in January with a fiery speech at a has appeal in establishment circles, sin, reprising his fights with unions. As resources, while Toomey perches » Lincoln on his campaign spoils. Republican gathering in Iowa, but was even if he can’t match Bush’s fundrais- for his promise to put forth “big and Chafee: June 3 ill-prepared for what followed and was ing prowess. bold” ideas, one adviser said not to at George Mason HHH hurt by a series of missteps and state- Walker’s path to victory, as outlined expect that in the announcement. Any University. T H E BAT T L E F O R ments. He has faced questions about by his closest advisers, is not signifi- such policies will be announced later » : July THE U.S. SENATE whether he has changed his positions cantly different from that of his rivals, in the year. 2 in blog post. » There are 34 Senate seats up for grabs in 2016 — 24 held by Republicans and 10 held by Democrats. A net gain of five seats by Democrats puts them ’16 RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE NEWS SHOWS back in control (although, they Guest lineups for Sunday only need four if they hold the POWER RANKINGS CAMPAIGN QUOTES White House). Seven of the T H E P O L L S morning’s television news shows: A weekly ranking of the top candi- Republican seats up for grabs “We’ve only » ABC’s “This Week” — Carly IOWA dates in each party based on the are in states won by President Fiorina; Sen. , KBUR/WAA, July 9 latest polling and momentum shifts. been a Obama in 2012. D-N.J. Republicans: Walker 18, Bush 12, declared » NBC’s “”— Paul 10, Huckabee 10, Rubio 9, DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS candidate for GOP seats on 2016 ballot Gov. Nikki Haley, R-S.C.; Sen. Bob Cruz 8, Trump 7, Carson 5, DEM seats on 2016 ballot 1. CLINTON 1. BUSH two months. Corker, R-Tenn. Christie 5, Santorum 4, Perry 4, 2. SANDERS 2. RUBIO In a certain » CBS’ “Face ” Fiorina 3, Jindal 2, Kasich 1 3. O’MALLEY 3. TRUMP sense, our — House Speaker , Democrats: Clinton 63, momentum R-Ohio; Sens. Bernie Sanders, Sanders 20, O’Malley 5, Webb 3, 4. WEBB 4. WALKER 5. CHAFEE 5. PAUL is outpacing D-Vt., and Tom Cotton, R-Ark. Chafee 1 » CNN’s “State of the Union” 6. HUCKABEE our infra- structure.” — Sen. , R-S.C.; COUNTDOWN 7. CRUZ Hillary Rodham Clinton. There are 204 days until the RANKED BY 8. CARSON — Bernie Sanders, “ Sunday” — Sen. proposed date for the Iowa JASON SNYDER, 9. CHRISTIE on the large crowds Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.; Jim BH NEWS caucuses (Feb. 1). SERVICE EDITOR 10. PERRY at campaign events Webb; Gov. Bobby Jindal, R-La.