ran’s Presidential Elections Iof May 2017 – An Overview
Presidential Elections – A Brief Introduction The Six Candidates Approved by the Guardian Council The Campaign The Polling Conundrum Conclusion – A Two-Horse Election that is Rowhani’s to Lose
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© KFCRIS, 2016
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n 19 May 2017, the Iranian electorate will go to the polls Oto choose the next president of the Islamic Republic. The poll will once again give an opportunity for Iranian society to make its views felt, and to choose from amongst a restricted but relatively diverse roster of candidates approved by the clerically-led vetting body, the Guardian Council. The elections are important on a number of levels. They provide society with the chance to approve or reject the significant developments of the last four years, from the rise of the moderate faction headed by the incumbent president, Hassan Rowhani, through to the nuclear deal signed in 2015 and its economic consequences. They will also be an opportunity for a new conservative/right- wing figure to gain power for the first time since 2005, when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad emerged as the surprise winner. The 2017 elections could also be one of the last held under the aegis of Ayatollah Khamenei, and are the first ever in the Islamic Republic in which the late regime stalwart Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani will not have a significant role, either as a candidate or a main player.
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Presidential Elections – A Brief Introduction
Presidential Elections in Iran have at once similarities citizen, whether inside the country or abroad, can and differences with their equivalents elsewhere. go to any polling station with the right identification The format of the elections was directly derived documents and cast a ballot. Another peculiar from the French Fifth Republic model, which is at characteristic is the restricted timeframe within which the root of the elected components of the present the elections occur. The entire process – registration Iranian constitution. Iran therefore does not have an at the Interior Ministry within a 5–7-day period, the electoral college or any other “mediated” process for announcement of the approved candidates by the the selection of the president; the entire country is Guardian Council, the official campaigning and the effectively turned into a single constituency which elections themselves, held on a single Friday, with chooses from the same roster of candidates. a run-off seven days later – usually occurs within While this does not significantly differentiate, on a the space of six weeks. Whereas some figures, broad level, the Iranian elections from the recently such as incumbent presidents ending their first conducted French ones, other factors imbue the term, prominent national inner-regime personalities former with unique features. As opposed to this and retired military officers, either announce their model, which mandates all candidates to obtain 500 candidacy months in advance or are widely expected signatories from elected officials in order to compete, to run, others, including at least half of the current there is no formal restriction on registration in the final roster, have emerged in period imminent to Iranian elections; all citizens, both men and women, the start of formal registrations or have made their who meet the Iranian-origins requirement can intention to run known by appearing at the Interior register via a simple process at the Interior Ministry. Ministry’s registration centre. Similarly unique is the Guardian Council’s approval These circumstances effectively turn the elections process, which takes place within 10 days of the into a direct popularity contest in which the electorate registration window coming to an end. The Council has to swiftly make up its mind on a single candidate is required only to produce a list of those who have based on a variety of factors. The factional allegiance acquired the ehraz-e salahiyat, or “confirmation of the candidates, usually clear and explicit, plays a of suitability” for the presidency. No rationale is leading role, as does their regional or institutional necessary or stated for the inclusion of any candidate positioning. The absence of structured political in – or exclusion from – the final, approved roster. parties, or transparent endorsement processes, The Council usually states that rejection for the coupled with the client base that candidates usually presidential post does not mean a lack of loyalty, accrue for themselves as a consequence of a long or suitability for other posts within the Islamic presence within the political scene, effectively Republic, such as the Parliament or the Assembly of provides the more prominent candidates with a Experts. A number of sitting deputies and Assembly series of “block votes” to use to build their rise to members have been rejected for the presidency in victory. However, past trends have usually pointed the current process. to decisive portions of the electorate making up With regards to voting procedures, there are no its mind in the last few days, when campaigning restrictions on where Iranians can vote. Any eligible ratchets up.
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The Six Candidates Approved by the Guardian Council
After the five-day registration window, in which all Hashemi Rafsanjani’s disqualification from the candidates have to turn up at the Interior Ministry race. He rose to the presidency that year with a hard and register (over 1,600 citizens did so), the Council fought 50.7% win in the first round, thus culminating eventually produced a final list of six, which notably a process which had been tentatively started in excluded the former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 1997 and reprised in 2005; on both occasions, he and his deputy, Hamid Baghai, both of whom had was touted as a presidential candidate but never decided to run. In the absence of formal explanations registered. A shrewd inner-regime operative, he for their exclusion by the Council, rumours abounded has espoused reformist/moderate credentials and that Baghai’s candidacy was not subject to individual has retained strong bonds with the late Rafsanjani analysis by the Council – a scenario usually accorded and other reformist leaders, such as his predecessor to attention seekers and extra-regime figures – and Mohammad Khatami. He has, however, been that Ahmadinejad’s candidacy was struck down by unable to realise a noted 2013 campaign pledge a majority vote after his defying of Supreme Leader and slogan, that of ending the house arrest of the Khamenei, who had advised him not to run. Other Green Movement leaders Mir-Hossein Mousavi notable rejections included Mohammad Hashemi, the and Mehdi Karroubi. Rowhani also has to grapple brother of the late Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Alireza with the complex economic situation. While he has Zakani, a prominent right-wing MP, and Mohammad been successful in bringing an end to the crippling Gharazi, who had been cleared to run in 2013. economic sanctions imposed by the UN, the EU and Here is a list of the approved candidates and brief other parties against Iran since 2006, the benefits of notes on their factional leanings and career within the the removal process, which only came into full force ranks of the Islamic Republic. in early 2016, have yet to make a significant impact Hassan Rowhani: The incumbent president, who on the general population. The latest IMF figures is seeking his second and last consecutive term. note that Iran is on course for 6.6% economic growth Aged 68, he is a remaining member of the old guard in 2017, ceteris paribus, particularly with regards which has persisted within the corridors of powers, to the attitude of the Trump administration towards albeit in various capacities and positions, since the the nuclear deal, which is currently under review. very start of the Islamic Republic in 1979. After a Furthermore, unemployment is hovering around long period as deputy and understudy to his political 12%, with peaks of 25% or more within the youth mentor, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Rowhani gained population, and inflation is still at nearly 8%, a level more independence in the 1990s as chairman of which will still be felt by most of society, though the newly formed National Security Council, and bringing it under control has arguably been the rose to national and international prominence as success story of Rowhani’s first term. The Rowhani the lead nuclear negotiator in 2003–2005, when he administration’s hesitant and reluctant approach to advocated détente and the easing of tensions with the the issue of subsidy scraps, which has delayed the West. The nuclear agenda became his main concern fine tuning of the policy and the provision of cash once again in 2013, after he emerged as the surprise handouts only to the neediest parts of society, has figurehead of the moderate factions following also caused dissatisfaction within society.
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Rowhani therefore faces a considerable challenge. Khan”, a reference to the modernising, authoritarian The timeframe of the implementation of the nuclear founder of the Pahlavi dynasty who reigned between deal, and the bad omens regarding the durability of 1925 and 1941. Later that year, however, Ghalibaf the deal caused by the new Trump administration became Mayor of Tehran, succeeding Ahmadinejad. are obstacles which would have hit any incumbent In the past decade, he has courted controversy and Iranian president. His adversaries are, however, admiration in equal measure while handling the making use of them as ammunition in their attacks unenvious task of running Iran’s unwieldy and on him. Rowhani appears to have maintained enough sprawling capital. While he has proceeded with popular support to edge the election in the first round, extending the metro train network and devising or the second round more emphatically. innovative and at times effective plans to alleviate Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf: A veteran of the severe traffic congestion, he has not been able to presidential campaigns, Ghalibaf, the 55-year old stem the rising tide of pollution, nor remain immune current Tehran mayor, is both the youngest candidate to accusations that he sold off municipal land, often and the one with the most attempts on the presidency lush with vegetation, to property developers in return on his record, running as he is for the third time. The for payments to him. Ghalibaf’s image was severely youngest-ever commander of the IRGC, Ghalibaf tarnished by the Plasco building disaster, a fire which consolidated his position within the upper ranks of the broke out in the upper floors of one of Tehran’s oldest IRGC during the Iran-Iraq war and remained in the and most famous skyscrapers in January 2017. As military-security realm following the conflict, latterly bystanders noted the inability of the fire service – run serving as head of national police between 1997 and by the City Council – to reach the floors in which the 2005. He built a reputation for himself as a tough, fire had broken out, the building collapsed, killed a no-nonsense public official, working hard to repair dozen firefighters, who immediately became “martyrs” the tarnished image of the police force as a group of to the administration’s shortcomings. Nevertheless, the corrupt and ineffective law enforcement officers. One incident did not put an end to Ghalibaf’s presidential of the lasting effects of his reforms was equipping ambitions, which materialised in the form of his the police with a fleet of imposing Mercedes Benz registration and approval by the Guardian Council. sedans, a rarity for the roads of Iran. Ghalibaf finished a distant second in 2013, ina In 2005, Ghalibaf cast aside his various uniforms campaign which was dominated by the nuclear issue for a new career as a civilian politician. He entered and by foreign policy matters, spheres in which he the crowded field for the succession to Mohammad was unable to effectively insert himself in a debate Khatami as a suave conservative who paid attention to which revolved around the pro-negotiation position the middle classes’ detachment from the drab sartorial of Rowhani and Ali Akbar Velayati and the radical codes of the right wing. His campaign posters showed approach of the outgoing nuclear negotiator and him next to Iran Air aircraft, reminding the voters conservative hawk, Said Jalili. Ghalibaf was also of his activity as an airline pilot. Ghalibaf, who ran weakened by a spirited attack on him mounted by a boisterous campaign which included the public Rowhani during a collective televised debate, in which distribution of non-alcoholic beer and American-style he was accused by the eventual winner of having rallies, was derailed by the publication of allegations kettled students during the university protests of 2003. that, during a campaign speech in a remote area, he had Ghalibaf has struck a combative, energetic tone in revealed his intention to become a “Hezbollahi Reza the opening skirmishes of the 2017 campaign, casting
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himself as a defender of the 96% of the population obscurity, Jahangiri resurfaced as Rowhani’s first, which do not enjoy the riches and privileges of the executive vice-president (a role comparable to the upper 4% strata of society. He accused Rowhani and US Vice President) in 2013. He registered in the his deputy, Eshaq Jahangiri, during the first televised 2017 election after a flurry of rumours to the effect debate of not spending enough time with ordinary that Rowhani could have been disqualified by the people, and of being oblivious to their plight. Despite Guardian Council. He has been the surprise story of the his combative style and energetic campaigning, campaign thus far, and has put up a strenuous defence Ghalibaf appears to have been undermined by the of the reformists in the televised debates (more on shortcomings of his administration in Tehran, the split this below), repeatedly warning the nation, during within the conservative camp between himself and other televised appearances, against the trend towards Raisi, and his inability to make any substantial inroads populism. He is thought to have placed himself in a into the modern urban middle-class vote, which is prime position for the race of 2021, when Rowhani, likely to be carried by Rowhani and Jahangiri. A if re-elected, would have to step down (having served failed presidential bid could mark an early swansong two consecutive terms). for his political ambitions and his receding into the Ebrahim Raisi: The surprise nominee of the hardline secondary stage of the Islamic Republic, thus giving conservative camp, Ebrahim Raisi, 57, is a long- him a role similar to that of Mohsen Rezai, a former serving judicial official with a dark and notorious past. long-standing commander in chief of the IRGC who Raisi spent most the 1980s in the Islamic Republic’s never succeeded in obtaining political success and is judicial system, having entered its ranks aged only 22, presently on the sidelines. in 1981. He has repeatedly sought to make political Like Rezai in 2005, Ghalibaf retired from the race capital from his association with the Islamic Republic’s in the last few days of the campaign in favour of first head of the judiciary, Ayatollah Mohammad the leading conservative candidate. On Monday Hosseini Beheshti, who was assassinated, together 15 May, he retired from the race while specifically with around 70 other high-level officials, in July 1981. endorsing Ebrahim Raisi, who is expected to hand him In 1988, as a series of mass executions of political a major government post if elected president. Ghalibaf prisoners took place in several Iranian prisons, Raisi, explained that the two were putting together a united according to documents and evidence later released by front for the economic salvation of the country. the dissident Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, was at Eshaq Jahangiri: A surprise last-minute entrant into the helm of a special three-man committee entrusted the race, Eshaq Jahangiri, 60, is the only avowedly with verifying whether the political prisoners, who reformist candidate besides Rowhani to have made belonged to various dissident groups, had renounced it onto the final roster. A long-serving technocratic their past beliefs or were still radically opposed to figure, Jahangiri has held a variety of senior positions the regime. Raisi’s role in the killings re-emerged in within the state administration. After training as an the summer of 2016, when a now-infamous audio industrial engineer prior to the Revolution of 1979, recording of a meeting between Montazeri and the Jahangiri served as a regional governor and then committee came to light. entered government as Industry Minister during the Raisi steadily rose up the ranks of the judiciary in the Khatami administration of 1997–2005. Sidelined by following decades and became a deputy of the new the rise to power of Ahmadinejad and having spent head, Sadegh Larijani, in 2009, while maintaining the eight years of the latter’s presidency in relative prominent roles in the Special Court for the Clergy.
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In 2015, he left his post to become the new administrator development plan, Raisi has also surprisingly lashed of the Astan-e Qods-e Razavi foundation, the out at the government’s delayed implementation of sprawling entity which administers the Imam Reza the Citizenship Charter, which he lamented as being shrine at Mashad. The Astan is often considered “talked about and drafted several times”, but not put to be the largest waqf, or religious endowment, in into practice. the entire Islamic world by wealth and breadth of Raisi’s bid for the presidency has been widely economic holdings. Raisi ascended to the position perceived as a litmus test for his rise to the Supreme after the death of the previous administrator, Abbas Leadership, a position for which he could be a strong Vaez Tabasi, who had been in office since 1979. Like contender, due to his relatively young age and his his predecessor, Raisi is a cleric of unremarkable rank strong links with the IRGC leadership and other but unassailable loyalty to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, influential quarters in the conservative firmament. the current Supreme Leader. This holds both if Raisi wins the presidency and if This is Raisi’s first foray into electoral politics after he loses, as would appear to be the case from the latest nearly four decades spent in sheltered, appointed posts. opinion polling and general indicators of societal His lack of experience in this regard was visible in reactions to his candidacy. Should he succeeded his first public appearances and televised interviews, Rowhani in a shock victory, Raisi would benefit from where he gave the impression of being ill-suited to being in the same position as Khamenei was when media appearances and public speaking, talking as Khomeini passed away in 1989, a circumstance which he often did with at times considerable hesitation and could bring about a swift elevation to the Leadership. with jumbled verbiage. Nevertheless, he appears to Even in the event of a defeat, Raisi would benefit have improved his appearance in more recent times, from the few weeks of campaigning, as he will have and delivered a measured but robust performance both established himself within conservative circles during the first televised debate, when he eschewed and gained notable experience in public speeches and the personal attacks hurled at Rowhani and Jahangiri exposure, key factors which he previously lacked. by Ghalibaf and pursued a more impersonal attack Raisi’s rise to prominence also comes as a warning on the government’s performance. Despite his clear to the reformist camp, who has yet to come up with hardline roots, his repeated and impassioned slogans a clerical figure possessing his experience under 60 in admiration of the IRGC commander Qassem years of age. By the time of the next presidential Soleimani and the strong support given to him by the elections, the reformist top brass will be in their mid- Paydari Front, an organisation mainly run by former 70s to early 80s, a factor which rules them out of Ahmadinejad allies with links to the ultra-hawkish contention for the successorship to Khamenei. Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi and right-wing personalities Mostafa Mir-Salim: A colourful character from such as the former chief nuclear negotiator and the early days of the Islamic Republic’s politics, presidential candidate Said Jalili, Raisi has espoused a Mir-Salim is arguably the veteran of this year’s centrist agenda, built on the slogan “Kar va Keramat” presidential cohort. The head of the urban police in [labour and benevolence] and on providing an image the early stages of the Islamic Republic, Mir-Salim’s of a “can-do” technocrat who has entered the electoral first entry into the political limelight dates back to fray after observing the government’s shortcomings spring 1980, when the then-president, Abolhassan in the economic arena. While he has often railed Bani-Sadr, unveiled him as his first, preferred choice against the lack of execution of the latest economic for the post of Prime Minister. Mir-Salim’s rejection
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by the newly elected Parliament started a protracted has since been active in this campaign as a fatherly turf war between Bani-Sadr on the one side and figure who has recently discovered social media, Beheshti, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Khamenei and other where he appears to articulate his views on improving clerical leaders grouped within the Islamic Republic the economy. However, his dated mannerisms and Party on the other, which ended with Bani-Sadr’s the lack of appeal of his party within society at large, impeachment and dismissal in 1981. Mir-Salim, following its uprooting as a central element of the right however, remained an active member of the political wing, which started with Ahmadinejad’s win in 2005, elite past that date, even surviving the clampdown leaves little doubt about Mir-Salim’s marginal role in on the secretive Hojjatieh religious society which this contest; he is not considered to have any chance of came about in the mid-1980s. Since that period, he winning, or of making it to the second round. has retained membership of the Motalefeh group, Mostafa Hashemi-Taba: A long-standing sports the cluster of merchant supporters of Khomeini that administrator and twice head of the Iranian Olympic goes back to the 1960s and, during the 1980s, formed Committee, Mostafa Hashemi-Taba is standing the backbone of the then anti-etatist conservative for president for the second time, after a lacklustre flank. The Motalefeh was strongly associated with performance in the 2001 elections, which saw him Khamenei in the 1990s and was amongst the groups obtain 27,000 votes out of the 27 million cast. A gaining control over the Fourth Majles in 1992, reformist-leaning technocrat and Minister of Industry a circumstance which favoured the elevation of in the Mousavi cabinets of the 1980s, Hashemi-Taba Mir-Salim to the post of Culture Ministry in 1994. is another old hand of the Islamic Republic’s inner Between then and the rise to power of Mohammad technocratic class, who has rarely if ever developed Khatami, who was ousted from the same ministry a political base of his own. When pressed on whether for being lax in imposing Islamic principles in the he would appoint a campaign manager and a national cultural and publication sphere, Mir-Salim pursued committee, Hashemi-Taba replied evasively that a puritan agenda, to the chagrin of, amongst others, he was in the process of “warming up”. Like Mir- President Rafsanjani. Salim, he is a minor attraction in the contest and is Mir-Salim remained on the fringes of political life not expected to be in the running for victory. The between 1997 and 2017, suddenly re-emerging in number of votes he receives, which is likely to be as spring this year as the candidate of choice of the small as in 2001, will not sway the contest either way Motalefeh Party. His proven inner-regime credentials if it goes to a run-off. On May 13, revealed that he led to assured approval by the Guardian Council. He will be casting his own ballot for Hassan Rowhani.
The Campaign
While lively and featuring innovations small and can be revoked if the Council feels that candidates large at every turn, Iranian presidential campaigning have overstepped the parameters which secured is significantly restricted by a variety of factors. The their entry onto the official roster of candidates. At Guardian Council’s “supervision” of candidacies other times, the numerous “red lines” which govern formally extends beyond the initial approval, which political debate in Iran become apparent. During the
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first televised debate, Raisi devoted a sizeable part On a more traditional level, the three main candidates, of his first solo address to the pledge to combat tax Rowhani, Raisi and Ghalibaf, have set forth a busy dodging, while completely sidestepping, together with agenda of rallies and meetings across the country. all other candidates, the issue of the Astan’s continued Since 2013, however, these have been exclusively exemption from taxation, which comes despite held in indoor locations, a measure which appears to recent legislation which at least formally mandates have been purposely devised to inhibit the very large religious foundations to pay income tax. The position crowds which appeared in favour of the reformist of Astan is due to an oral decree in this regard made candidates in 2009 and the impromptu street rallies by Khomeini in 1979, which has since been upheld in their favour during that year. As that campaign by Khamenei. Despite a considerable amount of was heading towards a close, the former president airtime devoted to the issue of slum dwelling, none Mohammad Khatami filled the imposing main square of the candidates broached what was arguably the of Isfahan while speaking on behalf of Mousavi. Only most visible and debated case in recent months, the one significant exception seems to have occurred, two discovery of a community of “grave-dwellers” at a separate rallies for Rowhani and Raisi in the same cemetery in a poor area of Tehran. Criticism of the Naqsh-e Jahan square in Esfahan, which was similarly JCPOA nuclear deal has also been muted thus far, filled with supporters. The array of mosques, sports with no candidate putting forward repeal or significant halls and other similar venues within which almost revision. While Raisi’s involvement in the 1988 all electoral rallies have to take place this time round killings has been viewed with alarm and revulsion provide far less seating space and more opportunities by opposition groups and human rights organisations, for their containment, a circumstance which makes none of the candidates has brought the issue up, which the use of social media a necessity. can be seen as a sign of reticence to engage with the In terms of policy, the campaign has broken little matter or use it to make political capital. new ground. Rowhani has largely espoused a The campaign has witnessed a higher profile role for continuation of his current themes and policies. social media, which has become the instrument of One of his key slogans, “We are halfway through”, choice for the candidates. Telegram, a communications clearly emphasises the need to carry on with the system which has been widely deployed within progressive re-linking of Iran to the world economy, Iran and is not, as opposed to Twitter or Facebook, and the gradual reduction of tensions with the West. subject to the state’s stringent filtering system, has His rallies have, however, been the best attended, been inundated with “channels”, which enable and the most widely distributed in geographical administrators – usually, campaign staff – to reach terms. They have spanned the breadth of the country out to broad audiences in read-only mode. Channels and have featured energised crowds, with record have also been used by pro-Ahmadinejad activists to participation being reached in arguably the biggest chide other candidates, especially during the televised indoor venue of the country, the Azadi Indoor debates. At least three candidates, Rowhani, Raisi and Stadium, on Saturday May 13, when an estimated Ghalibaf, have also made ample use of Instagram, 14,000 people took part in a rally featuring both another social network not filtered by the authorities, Rowhani and Jahangiri, who is likely to drop out of to post frequent live footage of their campaign events, the race in favour of the incumbent president by 15 which is otherwise unavailable as the state radiotv, May. Raisi also engaged in a less frenetic campaign, IRIB, does not provide such a service. which has featured significant crowds but clearly
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inferior in size to those attending events in support of his wife and son, which were also modest. At the of Rowhani. same time, Ghalibaf attacked Rowhani and Jahangiri Presidential campaigns also usually feature heightened for having benefitted from rock-bottom special prices, debate and a focus on apparently fringe topics. One obtained by way of political connections, while of the most prominent of these is the attack on the purchasing premium land in Tehran during the 1980s Saudi Embassy of January 2016, the effects of which and 1990s. Amongst Jahangiri’s barrage of similar have resonated in the jousting between Rowhani and accusations going the other way was noting that, at Jahangiri on one side, and Ghalibaf on the other. the height of medicine shortages due in part to the The main accusation of the moderate camp, made sanctions levied against Iran between 2006 and 2015, in a variety of outlets, including the official daily the Tehran City Municipality authorised the sale of of the Rowhani campaign, Arman-e Melli, points ultra-expensive, gold-leaved ice cream in the Milad to collusion between the Tehran City Council, and Tower, one of the capital’s most prominent landmarks. Ghalibaf specifically, and the leaders of the crowd Rowhani, on the other side, retorted by pointing to, which stormed into the Saudi Embassy and set it on as he had done during the debates of 2013, Ghalibaf’s fire. Such coverage could have been conducive to intention to engage in a heavy-handed repression of the Tehran mayor’s early exit from the race. Javad student protests and dissent while head of the national Zarif, the current Foreign Minister who is reputed to police in the early 2000s and Rowhani’s decisive be in line to keep his job irrespective of the winner intervention, during the presidential elections of 2005, of the elections, has gone further, stating as he did to block further judicial proceedings against Ghalibaf’s that the assault on the Embassy was both “idiotic and brother, who was on the verge of being indicted for treacherous”. (See examples of media coverage at the smuggling goods while being active in the national end of this document.) commission against smuggling. Ebrahim Raisi, on As in 2009 and 2013, the moment of maximum the other hand, brought up the accusations against confrontation and competition came in the form of Hossein Fereidun, the current president’s brother and televised debates, which were held with the formula chief adviser, against whom the Prosecutor General adopted four years prior: a long live programme and Raisi presented documentation to Rowhani to the featuring all six candidates, who had to answer effect that Fereidun was involved in major corruption. questions from a list prepared by the Electoral Such personal attacks, which are continuing unabated Commission. However, this format was rarely into the last days of campaigning, have accentuated adhered to. During the total of around ten broadcast the “personality contest” nature of these presidential hours, the candidates focused mostly on accusing each elections. other of financial wrongdoing, corruption or covering Of all five remaining candidates, only Rowhani has up relatives’ and friends’ massive corruption and produced what can be considered akin to a written embezzlement. The seemingly endless backbiting and manifesto. The programme for the coming years vitriol included one candidate, Ghalibaf, dramatically published by the current president is clearly geared releasing, both on air and on his social media towards maximising the urban middle-class vote, outlets, what he termed to be a full breakdown of his containing as it does laudatory references towards the possessions – which amounted to less than 10,000 Prime Minister of the 1950s Mohammad Mossadegh, USD in bank accounts, a couple of modest real estate and to his predecessor Mohammad Khatami, holdings and a small shop in a Mashad mall – and that towards which he has gravitated in the final days of
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campaigning. Rowhani also claims in the manifesto reputational risk amongst international banks that attempts to eradicate the reformist faction and pondering whether to service Iran-connected clients. the moderate nationalist dissidents from the political Also unresolved is the issue of moving beyond oil as scene by the conservatives has not been successful. a key driver of economic growth. According to IMF Elsewhere, he reiterates a claim made frequently figures, which have been subject to much scrutiny on the campaign trail: that of the need for religious by candidates critical of Rowhani, Iran is slated for foundations, such as the Imam Reza foundation, to 8% economic growth this year, 6% of which deriving pay income tax on their massive earnings. Rowhani’s from oil sales, a factor which is seen as inhibiting plan to alleviate the chronic high unemployment rate the growth of domestic industries. Raisi has pledged also rests on securing foreign investment, which he the creation of six million new jobs, which seems an hopes to obtain at the rate of hundreds of millions unlikely figure in the current context of the Iranian of dollars in the next four years. To this end, he has economy. A pool of senior economists has signed made the somewhat exaggerated promise of securing a petition calling upon candidates to refrain from the removal of all remaining international sanctions proposing unworkable, populist economic pledges, against Iran, some of which, particularly those while noting that all sides have resorted to such vote- imposed by the US, are still creating considerable gathering methods.
The Polling Conundrum
In stark difference to many other presidential above 40%, but will not reach the 50% needed for competitions, the Iranian one takes place in the outright victory in the first round. Polls which take absence of regular, reputable opinion polling. Polling into account Ghalibaf’s withdrawal have yet to be is still a sensitive topic in Iran, with the official, state released. Other polls, only the results of which have position being one of suspicion and a reluctance to been released by news outlets such as the website allow unfettered activity by public and private bodies. Alef.ir, run by the prominent conservative Ahmad Nevertheless, ISPA, a polling institute affiliated to the Tavakoli, also put Rowhani ahead, while a newly parastatal Higher Education Jihad organisation, has founded organisation in Washington DC, IPPO, is been releasing the results of polls without providing more emphatic in its prediction of a Rowhani victory key underlying data, such as sample size, margin of in the first round. The polls also imply a turnout of error, or geographical spread. According to these 70% or higher, a key factor which could pave the way results, the incumbent Hassan Rowhani is hovering for a reformist victory.
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Conclusion – A Two-Horse Election that is Rowhani’s to Lose
As the voting day of May 19 nears, Iran is gearing support, especially in the likely scenario of Jahangiri towards the re-election of Hassan Rowhani, the formally dropping out before the poll, would be less incumbent who appears to have fended off his than the overall conservative majority. The last- rivals’ spirited and no-holds-barred offensive minute alliance between Raisi and Ghalibaf has, against him, even though the contest has effectively however, brought about the first unified conservative developed into a two-horse race with the bowing out candidate for decades, a factor which has thrust this of Ghalibaf on Monday. Despite the fiery rhetoric election into the unknown. By effectively gambling adopted by both Raisi and Ghalibaf, neither has on an unknown cleric with little practical executive succeeded in proposing a concrete and coherent experience, the right-wing forces hope to exploit manifesto that would curry the favour necessary popular discontent over aspects of Rowhani’s to deprive Rowhani of the strong support which management to stage a surprise win. However, Raisi moderate/reformist candidates are usually able to also has no other reservoir of votes to benefit from accrue during high turnouts. His rallies are also in the event the race goes to a second round. It is much better attended. also unclear whether the support Ghalibaf will have The absence of reliable polling, and the strong pockets built for himself within the urban middle classes, of support of both Raisi and Ghalibaf, coupled with particularly in the capital Tehran, will translate into the fickleness of the electorate, prevent, however, a support for Raisi rather than Rowhani. clear judgement on whether Rowhani will edge it in The now two-horse race presents the electorate with a the first round. A second round could yield surprises, stark choice, as the front page from the pro-Rowhani as it would imply that the sum total of reformist daily Shahrvand of May 16 suggests.
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Shahrvand Daily, Main title: “Which Future”. A shut down social networks ten times, we prevented Comparison between select policies of Raisi and that from happening.” Rowhani. Row 4: Raisi: “They want to raise subsidy-replacement Row 1: Raisi: “The Sanctions Can Raise Resistance payments threefold. This is not sustainable/possible.” Amongst Us”. Rowhani: “We Are Opposed to the Rowhani: “Their [conservatives] agenda is to re- Sanctions and Corralling of Iran”. enact the 1390 and 1391 years [2010–2011, when Row 2: Raisi: “[Ironical/Critically] They have poured the Iranian economy suffered debilitating blows concrete into the mainframe of the Arak nuclear during the second Ahmadinejad tenure]. We will not reactor”. Rowhani: “We have built a bridge between go back to those years.” Iran and the world through the JCPOA”. Row 5: Raisi: “The government has to admit Row 3: Raisi: “They claim to have connected the rural corruption within its ranks, shouting ‘Thief! Thief!’ areas to the Internet, so what happened to jobs in rural is not enough”. Rowhani: “Millions of US dollars areas?” Rowhani: “They [the conservatives] tried to have been given to corrupt individuals. Who gave this
Front page of the (print) daily newspaper Arman-e Melli, the official daily of the Rowhani Campaign, 4 May 2017: “The [main] agent of the attack on the Saudi Embassy on [Tehran] City Council premises”. The article focuses on the perceived links between Ghalibaf and the neighborhood tough, Kord-Mihan, who led the assault on the Saudi Embassy.
Rajab - Shaban 1438 - April - May 2017 money? [implying it was the conservatives].” approximately 90, or the arch-conservative Ahmad Looking beyond the May 19 vote, this campaign Jannati, who currently presides over two state bodies, has also, however, highlighted the better positioning the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts, of the conservative forces in the looming race to and is aged at least 92), brings to the fore the pressing succeed Khamenei, who may be supervising over need for generational change, a remit which the his last presidential tenure. Both Raisi and Ghalibaf conservatives appear to have approached on a better are generationally ahead of their reformist rivals, footing. While Raisi could emerge as the defeated who will enter the 2021 race with Rowhani having candidate of this contest, his abrasive rhetoric and reached the limit of his terms and with other top brass personal rejection of the Rowhani-reformist clan – Khatami, Mousavi, Karroubi, and beyond – being suggests that they are unwilling to retire from the all within reach of the eighth decade of their lives. political scene in the near future and are instead very The sudden death of Rafsanjani at the relatively lower likely to re-contest the presidency, and other relevant age of 82 (compared to Khomeini, who died aged institutions, in the near future.
“Infographic” produced by an online collective supportive of Rowhani, Bamdad Media, depicting the consequences of the attack on the Saudi Embassy in Tehran and the Consulate-General in Mashad, in January 2016. The headline on the left reads “Attack on Iran’s Trustworthiness”. From top to bottom on the right-hand side, the text reads: “A reduction by 66% of Arab tourism towards Mashad”, “The loss of thousands of jobs in the pilgrimage offices and hotel industry”, “Weakening of Iran’s Righteousness and Strengthening of the Saudi stance regarding the Mena disaster and the execution of Shaykh al-Nimr”, “Cancellation of the Hajj for 1395”, “Revocation of Iranian [football] teams’ right to host Saudi teams [in competitions such as the Asian Champions League] due to the claim of lack of security in Iran [for Saudi teams]”, “Support for region.
Rajab - Shaban 1438 - April - May 2017 King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies (KFCRIS)
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