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Iranian Presidential Elections June 2009 Epiphany Term 2009 Policy Brief IRANIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS JUNE 2009 Centre for Iranian Studies—Durham University [email protected] Epiphany Term 2009 Policy Brief Page 2 DURHAM UNIVERSITY Centre for Iranian Studies About the Centre Founded in 1999, The Centre for Iranian Studies is a subsidiary research body of the Institute of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the University of Durham. Its central aim is to facili- tate and encourage debate, research and the growth of Iranian Studies in the UK. To achieve this, the Centre encourages links and exchanges between academics and academic institutions in the UK and Iran and hosts lecture series, seminars, workshops and conferences. Furthermore, the Centre for Iranian Studies facilitates the publishing of policy-relevant studies in Policy Briefs aimed at addressing Iranian affairs in a highly academic fashion. The Centre for Iranian Studies' areas of expertise however transcends contemporary and policy -driven concerns and includes medieval, pre-modern and modern history of Iran, Iranian cul- ture, Shi'ism, Modern and Classical Farsi alongside archaeology of the ancient Near East, Sas- sanian Iran and early Islamization. Who is Who: The CIS Executive Committee Dr. Reza Molavi Executive Director, Centre for Iranian Studies Prof. Anoush Ehteshami Dean of Internationalization Durham University Dr. Colin Turner Director, Centre for Iranian Studies Dr. Paul Luft Director, Centre for Iranian Studies Centre for Iranian Studies—Durham University [email protected] Epiphany Term 2009 Policy Brief Page 3 Iranian Presidential Elections June 2009 Contents Editorial Board Anoush Ehteshami 1. Slogan vs. Manifesto: Analyzing Election Campaigning in Iran Reza Molavi Jennifer Thompson 2. Greatest Challenge For the Next President: Economic asperities outbal- ancing Iran’s nuclear ambitions and an- tagonism towards the United States Authors 3. About the Authors Ariabarzan 4. Interns at CIS Mohammadighalehtaki 5. CIS events past and present Intern and Team Leader Centre for Iranian Studies Ehsan Abdoh Intern Centre for Iranian Studies Centre for Iranian Studies—Durham University [email protected] Epiphany Term 2009 Policy Brief Page 4 Slogan vs. Manifesto: Analyzing Election Campaigning in Iran Iran’s next presidential elections 1997, he surprised every one by Ahmadinejad. When Ahmadinejad will be held on June 12, 2009, and stating that what he meant by “civil launched his bid for the 2005 presi- besides many politicians who indi- society” was the “the City of dential election, his campaign cated their inclination to run for the Prophet Muhammad”. pledges included “bringing oil presidency if certain conditions money to people’s tables”.(2) Many were met, Mir Hossein Mousavi While the Western civil society, poor working class people voted for and Mehdi Karrobi have made it historically as well as theoretically, him because of his general promise public that they will compete is derived from the Greek city- to improve their living standards against the current president Mah- states and the later Roman political but they forgot to ask Ahmadinejad moud Ahmadinejad in the upcom- system, the civil society we have in how exactly he is going to deliver ing election. mind has its origin, from a histori- on his promise. Ahmadinejad did cal and theoretical point of view, in not say whether he was going to However, what is missing from all “Madinat ul-Nabi.”(1) reduce taxes or increase them, nor candidates’ and hopefuls’ agendas did he provide a fiscal policy to so far is an election manifesto. By If during his campaign Khatami had which he could be held account- the term “election manifesto” I provided a program that explained able. Instead he merely said that he mean a tangible plan that each can- how he was going to support civil will “bring oil money to people’s didate would present to the elector- society in Iran, he could not easily tables”. He did not even bother to ate as his election pledge, a plan have bent his words and used the provide his own interpretation of both political and economic that is term “civil society” in a sense dif- the promise he had made (like concrete and details as opposed to ferent from that in which it is com- Khatami). In fact, after feeling abstract and general. monly understood. But he has not, secure enough in the position of which gave him the liberty of not power, he denied using such a slo- Historically presidential election being accountable to what he said gan altogether. campaigns in Iran are mostly based in his election campaign after being on personality and slogans rather elected. Personality is an important factor in than programmes. In Iran slogans election campaigns everywhere. have taken the place of manifestos. I am certainly not denying that With all else being equal, candi- Slogans are general, catchy and Khatami was a president with a dates who hold charisma have bet- could be interpreted or ex- ter chances of getting elected plained differently before than those who are not charis- and after the elections. This “Historically presidential elec- matic. In this sense elections in can be better understood by tion campaigns in Iran are Iran may not seem that differ- the following examples from ent from elsewhere. Both recently organised election mostly based on personality and Khatami and Ahmadinejad did campaigns in Iran. slogans rather than possess some charismatic char- programmes” acteristics that helped them win A key slogan that was used elections. However, what explicitly by Mohammad makes election campaigning in Khatami during his election cam- reformist agenda. Instead I am Iran different from that in the US paign in 1997 was to promote, questioning the transparency of that for example is the accountability strengthen and support “civil soci- agenda during his first election factor. ety”. As a matter of fact, it was this campaign. When one does not pro- slogan that rallied educated middle vide people with a written docu- In America Barack Obama was class Iranian’s behind him. How- ment that explains in detail what under criticism by some prominent ever once in office and under im- exactly you are going to do once Democrats in the Congress for fail- mense pressure from the hardliners’ being elected as a president, you are ing to keep his promise of pulling camp, he provided an unfamiliar in fact making yourself unaccount- out all combat troops from Iraq by definition of “civil society” hitherto able to the electorate. next April. Obviously, not every unknown to anyone. In a famous president can keep his or her elec- speech at the Islamic Summit Con- Another instance, this time from a tion promises but in many countries ference in Tehran, 9 December Principalist President Mahmoud the success or failure of the presi- Centre for Iranian Studies—Durham University [email protected] Epiphany Term 2009 Policy Brief Page 5 dent is compared against his or her below the rate of inflation and dis- cal manoeuvres during the last three election manifesto. The more prom- mantling the Management and years, I would like to have a look at ises they can fulfil the more credit Planning Organization (which was the bittersweet experiences of a they will receive. However in Iran historically charged with mapping president who used to be a symbol it seems that presidents can get out long term economic strategies ) of reformism. away with almost anything since made him unpopular with many they are not accustomed to stating middle class Iranians. Giving out During his first two years in office their agenda and program in a pre- cheap loans and affordable housing President Seyed Mohammad cise fashion. to many lower income people and Khatami was successful in expand- distributing shares of the major ing the freedom of both citizens and Until now there are three major state owned companies among the press. His “dialogue of civiliza- candidates who have directly or poor families, however, have made tions” initiative was very well re- indirectly expressed there willing- him widely popular among the im- ceived in the western world and his ness to enter the 2009 election race poverished and lower income seg- attempt to crack the “tall wall of in Iran: the current president Mah- ments of the society. mistrust” between Iran and America moud Ahmadinejad, the former was admired by most Iranians and premier Mir-Hossein Mousavi and In addition Ahmadinejad’s many Americans, especially in the the former speaker of Majlis Mehdi “economic transformation plan” Clinton administration. Karroubi. However the candidate could be viewed as his election whose late entry to and early depar- manifesto (at least in the economic However, two years after ture from the election race has left terms). The plan which includes Mohammad Khatami’s overwhelm- everyone in the state of shock (i.e. reforms in taxation and subsidies is ing victory in 1997 his conservative former president Seyed Mohammad supposed to give more freedom to adversaries (who had since been in Khatami) must not be forgotten. the private sector and reduce the a state of shock,) began to lick their country’s reliance on oil revenue.(3) wounds and put together a new I would like now to examine each This plan was passed to parliament strategy aimed at dismantling and candidate’s electoral behaviour in for approval but the recent decrease blocking the reform efforts of order to elucidate the above discus- in the price of oil and the subse- Khatami. In the absence of strong sion and put it in the context of quent fall in the state revenue have reformist will to use the power of today’s Iran. brought it to a deadlock. masses the conservatives took the initiative by gathering their most President Mahmoud Ahmadine- Ahmadinejad’s record as a presi- loyal elements inside and outside jad is the top Principalist nominee.
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