Demonstration of a New Decision-Making Framework for Investment in Urban Public Transport Infrastructure: Application to CBD-Airport Rail Links

PLEASE TYPE THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Thesis/Project Report Sheet

Surname or Fam1ly name: Scott

First name: Frieda Other name/s: Elaine

Abbreviation for degree as g1ven 1n the University ca lendar: PhD School: Faculty: Civil and Environmental Engineering Title: Demonstration of a New Decision-Making Framework for Investment in Urban Public Transport Infrastructure: Application to CBD-Airport Rail Links

Abstract 350 words maximum: (PLEASE TYPE) There is a lack of a coherent decision-making framework for transport investment that explicitly includes economic. social, environmental and cross-modal decision dimensions. At the same time, two conflicting pressures are being exerted on transport systems worldwide. The first is growing realisation of the social and environmental costs of road based traffic congestion on urban transport systems. The second is the need to provide more transport system capacity with less funding. i In transport decision-making practice, there are no generally accepted methods to consolidate the multi-modal ! transport network effects of a particular transport project. This is partly due to current institutional arrangements that ; encourage focus on a panicular transpon mode almost before project decisions are made. This current lack of a comprehensive framework is particularly apparent in projects that link tow different transport modes.

This research contributes to knowledge about urban rail transpon provision in two ways. First. it systematically , collects a comprehensive database on CBD-airpon rail links that includes: • development of th e concept of a multi-modal terrestrial and air transpon network; • identification of clusters of multiple links in some conurbations: • development of critical success factors for in vestment in these links; • how decisions were made to provide these links; • sources of funds for construction and operation; • what institutional decision-makers believe are important in decisions of this type.

Second, it develops a new decision-making framework for investment in urban rai l infrastructure. This framework is not intended to take the place of current transport decision-making practice, but rather provide technical detail in a summarised form for decision-makers. The framework proposed shows the economic, social environmental and intermodal dimensions of these decisions, scaled by relevant social groups (e.g. travellers on the transport link, travellers on the mode-specific network. travellers on the regional, multi-modal transport network and the community as a whole). It was developed using provision of a CBD-airport rail link in Sydney and applied to another CBD airport rail link in Brisbane.

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THIS SHEET IS TO BE GLUED TO THE INSIDE FRONT COVER OF THE THESIS PT 388.4 96 CERTIFICATE OF ORIGINALITY

I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, nor material which to a substantial extent has been accepted for Ute award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis.

I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expr~ssion is ac wledged.

(Signed) ...... c______j"""""""""" DEMONSTRATION OF A NEW DECISION-MAKING FRAMEWORK FOR INVESTMENT IN URBAN PUBLIC TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE: APPLICATION TO CBD-AIRPORT RAIL LINKS

FRIEDA SCOTT BSc(NIU), MEc(Macq), MBA(Macq)

PhD Thesis submitted to the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia January 2003 UNSW 2 0 OCT 2003 Ll" ::1/\RY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This to acknowledge the advice, support and patience of many people, notably my thesis supervisor, Professor John Black, and my husband, Chris Scott- thanks.

Much of this work would not have been possible without the people who responded to the international survey of CBD-airport rail links -too many to name separately- and the expert panel who offered advice on the development of the survey, namely Piers Brogan, Ken Dobinson, Peter Hicks and Professor Hans Westerman.· -' .. . . ". . ~

- i- ABSTRACT

There is a lack of a coherent decision-making framework for transport investment that explicitly includes economic, social, environmental and cross-modal decision dimensions. At the same time, two conflicting pressures are being exerted on transport systems worldwide. The first is growing realisation of the social and environmental costs of road-based traffic congestion on urban transport systems. The second is the need to provide more transport system capacity with less funding.

In transport decision-making practice, there are no generally accepted methods to consolidate the multi-modal transport network effects of a particular transport project. This is partly due to current institutional arrangements that encourage focus on a particular transport mode almost before project decisions are made. This current lack of a comprehensive framework is particularly apparent in projects that lin1c two different transport modes.

Second, it develops a new decision-making framework for investment in urban rail infrastructure that is presented in a graphical format. This framework is not intended to take the place of current transport decision-making practice, but rather provide technical detail in a summarised form for decision-makers. The framework proposed shows the economic, social environmental and intermodal dimensions of these decisions, scaled by relevant social groups (e.g. travellers on the transport link, travellers on the mode-specific network, travellers on the regional, multi-modal transport network and the community as a whole). It was developed using provision of a CBD-airport rail link in Sydney, and tested using another link in Brisbane.

- ii - TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction 1 1.1 Problem Statement 1 1.1.1 Current Transport Investment Decisions 1 1.1.2 Future Transport Investment Decision Needs 5 1.2 Objective of Research 6 1.3 Methodology 6 1.3.1 Literature Review 7 1.3.2 Fundamentals in CBD-Airport Traffic 7 1.3.3 Survey of Rail and Airport Operators 7 1.3.4 Development of a New Decision Making-Framework 8 1.4 Organisation of Thesis 8

2 Literature Review: Existing Decision-Making 11 Frameworks 2.1 Introduction 11 2.1.1 Background 11 2.1.2 Government Decision-Making and Policy 11 2.2 Transport Infrastructure Decision-Making 12 2.2.1 Rail Transport Decisions 15 2.2.2 Technological Frameworks 17 2.2.3 Economic Frameworks 19 2.2.4 Risk Frameworks 24 2.2.5 Planning Frameworks 28 2.2.6 Summary 38 2.3 Current Models of Ground Access 41 2.3.1 Four-Step Transport Models 41 2.3.2 Behavioural Demand Models 42 2.3.3 Linked Transport/Land-Use Models 42 2.3.4 Integrated Transport/Land-Use Models 43 2.4 Analysis of Current Model Types 43 2.4.1 Use of Model Outputs in Project Appraisals 45 2.4.2 Incorporating Broader Transport Objectives 46 2.5 Forces for Change- Public Transport at the Crossroads 49 2.5.1 Transport Decision-Making Environment 49 2.5.2 Emerging Frameworks- Sustainability and Transport 54 Decisions 2.6 Critique and Gaps 55 2.6.1 Relevant Information 57 2.6.2 Trade Offs 57 2.7 Conclusions 58

3 Fundamentals in the Analysis of CBD-Airport Traffic 60 3.1 Introduction 60 3.2 Two Models of CBD-Airport Access 61 3 .2.1 Evolution of City-Airport Transport 61 3.2.2 Base Model ofTravel Demand 61 3.2.3 Enhanced Model 69

-iii- 3.3 Justification of CBD-Airport Rail Link 78 3.3.1 Road Congestion Relief 79 3.3.2 Rail Network Enhancement 79 3.4 Summary 82

4 Survey of CBD to Airport Rail Links 84 4.1 Introduction 84 4.2 Rationale 84 4.3 Questionnaire Development 89 4.4 Survey Administration 90 4.4.1 General Statistics 90 4.4.2 Sample Size and Response Rates 91 4.4.3 Respondent Population Characteristics 91 4.4.4 Definition of a CBD-Airport Link 94 4.5 Analysis 99 4.5.1 Connectivity 100 4.5.2 Multiple Links 101 4.5.3 Critical Success Factors 107 4.6 Conclusions 114

5 CBD to Airport Rail Links Worldwide 116 5.1 Introduction 116 5.2 Response Rate 116 5.3 Link Descriptors 119 5.3.1 Summary of Links Worldwide 119 5.3.2 Station Characteristics 123 5.4 Who Pays? 124 5.4.1 Funding Construction 124 5.4.2 Funding Operations 125 5.4.3 Financial Engineering and Project Outcomes 125 5.5 Decision-Malting 126 5.5.1 Community Consultation 130 5.5.2 Partnerships 130 5.6 Critical Success Factors 131 5.6.1 What Institutional Decision-Makers Think 131 5.6.2 Assessment According to Critical Success Factors 132 5.7 Other Studies of Airport Ground Access 134 5.8 Summary 134

6 A New Decision-Malting Framework for Transport Infrastructure 136 6.1 Introduction 136 6.2 Current Decision-Malting Practice 136 6.3 Transport Networks 138 6.3.1 Inte1modality 139 6.3.2 Interchange 139 6.4 New Transport Decision-Malting FrameworlG 139 6.4.1 Project Alternatives and Project Financing 140 6.4.2 Potential Performance Measures 141 6.5 Application to CBD-Airport Transport Investment 143

- iv- 6.5.1 Airport Link Description 143 6.5.2 Project Development and Evaluation 145 6.5.3 Project Benefits and Costs 146 6.6 Conclusions 157 6.6.1 Project and Implementation Decisions 157 6.6.2 New Decision-Making Framework 158

7 Testing the New Decision-Making Framework: Application to 159 Brisbane Airtrain 7.1 Rationale 159 7.2 Brisbane Airport Rail Link 159 7.2.1 Link Description 159 7.2.2 Brisbane Airport 161 7.2.3 Project Development and Evaluation 163 7.2.4 Project Benefits and Costs 165 7 .2.5 Comparison with Sydney Link 172 7.3 Conclusions 173

8 Thesis Conclusions 17 4 8.1 Problem Investigated 174 8.2 Methodology 174 8.3 Key Findings 175 8.4 Future Research 176 8.4.1 New Decision-Making Framework 176 8.4.2 CBD-Airport Rail Links 176

Bibliography 177 Appendices Appendix A: Proposed Survey Topics Appendix B: Identified CBD-Airport Rail Links Appendix C: Questionnaires (First Survey) Appendix D: Questionnaires (Second Survey) Appendix E: Airport and Rail Operator Information Appendix F: Regional Population Sources

-v- LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1 The Policy Cycle 12 Figure 2.2 Investment in Transport Infrastructure 14 Figure 2.3 Bradfield's Plan for Sydney 18 Figure 2.4 Road and Rail Mode Shares 20 Figure 2.5 Economic and Social Systems for Transport and Land Use 50

Figure 3.1 Structural Similarities Between Transport and Information 76 Systems Figure 3.2 Impact of Transport Investment Decisions and Groups 83 Affected

Figure 4.1 Sydney International, Domestic and Regional Airport 85 Passengers, 1987/88 to 1997/98 Figure 4.2 Multi Modal Transport System 86 Figure 4.3 CBD to Airport Links by Location 93 Figure 4.4 CBD to Airport Links by Distance Band 94 Figure 4.5a Atlanta Airport Terminal 95 Figure 4.5b Midway Airport Terminal 95 Figure 4.5c Gatwick Airport Station 96 Figure 4.5d Caltrain Shuttle at San Francisco International Airport 97 Figure 4.6 Responses to Survey: Cumulative Number of CBD-Airport 99 Links by Opening Year Figure 4.7 CBD-Airport Links: Number by Distance Band 100 Figure 4.8 Existing CBD-Airport Links by Length and Age 100 Figure 4.9 Annual Passengers by Airport, 1994 102 Figure 4.10 BART Area Map, Showing Access to Airports at San 103 Francisco and Oakland Figure 4.11 Diagrammatic Representation of Baltimore-Washington 104 Rail Transport Figure 4.12 Diagrammatic Representation of Birmingham Region Rail 105 Transport Figure 4.13 Diagrammatic Representation of Dusseldorf and Cologne/ 105 Bonn Projected Rail Transport Figure 4.14 Newcastle Airport Catchment Area 106 Figure 4.15 Comparison of Two Simple Transport Networks 107 Figure 4.16 Metropolitan Area Populations for Identified CBD-Airport 109 Links Figure 4.17 Comparison ofRoad and Rail Speeds ofCBD-Airport 111 Links Figure 4.18 CBD-Airport Cents (AUD) per Kilometre 112 Figure 4.19 Carparking Spaces per 10,000 Air Passengers 114

Figure 5.1 Responses to Second Part of Survey by Geographic Region 118 Figure 5.2 Average Scores for Decision-Making Considerations 127 Figure 5.3 Second Part of Survey Responses by Age of Linlc 129 Figure 5.4 Responses Reporting Consultation with Stakeholders by 130 Location

-vi- Figure 6.1 Current Transport Decision-Making in Practice in NSW 137 First Stage Figure 6.2 Template for Graphical Representation ofPerformance 142 Measures by Decision Dimension Figure 6.3 Sydney's CBD-Airport Rail Link 144 Figure 6.4 Transport Linlc Effects of Prior Airport Link Appraisal 153 Figure 6.5 Transport Mode Effects of Prior Airport Link Appraisal 154 Figure 6.6 Transport Network Effects of Prior Airport Link Appraisal 154 Figure 6.7 Community Effects of Prior Airport Link Appraisal 155

Figure 7.1 Brisbane CBD Map, Showing Airport Rail Link 160 Figure 7.2 Airtrain Route Map 161 Figure 7.3 Aerial View of Brisbane Airport 162 Figure 7.4 Transport Link Effects of Prior Airtrain Appraisal 169 Figure 7.5 Transport Mode Effects of Prior Airtrain Appraisal 170 Figure 7.6 Transport Network Effects of Prior Airtrain Appraisal 170 Figure 7.7 Community Effects of Prior Airtrain Appraisal 171

-vii- LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1 Focus of Decision-Making Frameworks 16 Table 2.2 External Cost ofPassenger Transport (per 1,000 Passenger 22 Kilometres) Table 2.3 Risk Categories for Private Sector Involvement in Toll 25 Roads Table 2.4 Existing Decision-Making Frameworks for Rail Transport 39 Projects Table 2.5 Comparison of Transport Planning Model Types Found in 44 the Literature Table 2.6 Levels of Transport Interaction and Their External Effects 47 Table 2.7 Transport Planning and Land Use Planning Modes 53 Compared Table 2.8 Comparison of Possible Sustainable Decision-Making 56 Criteria for Transport Table 2.9 Proposed Transport Investment Decision-Making 58 Framework

Table 3.1 Transport Supply Characteristics of Base Model 62 Table 3.2 Land-Use/Transport Demand Characteristics ofBase 63 Model Table 3.3 Equilibrium Solutions for Base Model 66 Table 3.4 Generalised Costs (1993 dollars) by Mode, CBD-Airport 68 Table 3.5 Forecast CBD-Airport Trips 68 Table 3.6 Approximate Accident and Environmental Savings by 72 Mode Share, 2003 to 2028 Table 3.7 Estimated Daily Emissions of Road Vehicles Diverted to 72 Rail Route Table 3.8 Equity Implications of Different Transportation Evaluation 75 Criteria Table 3.9 Selected Potential Savings from Diversion to Rail Route, 78 2003 to 2028

Table 4.1 Airport Ground Access to CBD in North American Cities 87 Table 4.2 CBD-Airport Links, Identified as Operating or Under 92 Construction at Time of Survey Table 4.3 Postal Survey Response Rates for Personalised and Non 93 Personalised Covering Letters Table 4.4 Operating CBD-Airport Links or Links Under 98 Construction: Responses by Opening Year Table 4.5 CBD-Airport Links: Rail Stops (Possible Interchange 113 Points)

Table 5.1 Responses to Parts One and Two of CBD-Airport Rail 117 Link Survey Table 5.2 Second Part of Survey of CBD-Airport Rail Links: 118 Responses by Category

- viii - Table 5.3 Second Part of Survey of CBD-Airport Rail Links: 119 Elements of Airport and Railway Surveys Table 5.4 Operating CBD-Airport Rail Links: Distances, Travel 120 Times and Speeds Table 5.5 Unconfirmed CBD-Airport Links 121 Table 5.6 Road and Rail Speeds for CBD-Airport Links 122 Table 5.7 Proximities of Airport Rail Stations to Airport Terminals 124 Table 5.8 Airport Operators' Contributions to CBD-Airport Rail 126 Links Table 5.9 Most Important Aspects of Decision-Making to Airport 128 and Rail Operators of CBD-Airport Rail Links Table 5.10 Operators' Indicators of Success by Link 132

Table 6.1 Potential Performance Measures for Passenger Transport 141 Infrastructure Projects Table 6.2 Transport Project Impacts and Scales 143 Table 6.3 Airport Link Fares 145 Table 6.4 Access and Interchange Features of Privately Operated 147 Stations Table 6.5 Components of Airport Lin1c Appraisal by Decision 148 Dimension Table 6.6 Missing Components of Airport Link Appraisal by 149 Decision Dimension Table 6.7 Impact Analysis of Airport Link 155 Table 6.8 Potential Viability of Sydney's Airport Rail Lin1c 157

Table 7.1 Comparison of Brisbane CBD-Airport Access: Airtrain, 164 Coach and Taxi Table 7.2 Access and Interchange Features of Selected Airtrain 165 Stations Table 7.3 Expected Elements of CBD-Airport Link Economic 166 Appraisal by Decision Dimension Table 7.4 Components of Prior Airtrain Appraisal by Decision 167 Dimension Table 7.5 Impact Analysis of Airtrain 171 Table 7.6 Potential Viability of Brisbane's Airport Rail Link 172 Table 7.7 Brisbane and Sydney Links: Approximate Generalised 172 Costs

- ix- 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Problem Statement 1.1.1 Current Transport Investment Decisions Worldwide, two conflicting pressures are being exerted on decision makers and those responsible for managing urban transport systems. The first is the social and environmental costs of road-based traffic congestion on existing urban transport systems (Commonwealth of Australia, 1991; Sinclair Knight and Merz, 1993; and Newman and Kenworthy, 1999). The second is the need for governments to provide more transport system capacity with less funding (OECD, 1987, p.ll; Australia Department of Transport and Regional Services, 2000, pp. 44-45). The first pressure implies that transport system investments should be made on a system-wide basis across all modes and decisions should be based on a range of economic, social and environmental factors, including the internalisation of economic externalities (European Conference of Ministers for Transport, 1998, p.70). The second pressure generates government preoccupation with economic efficiencies, and the assumption that the introduction of contestable, sometimes private sector sponsored, transport infrastructure will ensure cost-effective mobility in the future.

As a result of these pressures, the rail industry worldwide is undergoing major change. State-owned and operated systems are now being transformed into a public/private structure that distinguishes ownership, operation and regulation (Institution of Engineers, Australia, 1999, p. 22) in response to the pressure for cost-effective rail network capacity. The response of the Australian rail system to social and environmental concerns to date has been less clear in practice. While provision of rail transport infrastructure is part of a broader, inte1modal urban transport network, decisions about investment in rail infrastructure remain fairly independent from decisions about investment in other transport infrastructure. The reasons for this include: • institutional arrangements that encourage transport investment decisions to be made by organisations representing a single transport mode; • potential technical bias of public sector decision-mal(ers; and • continued fragmentation of rail transport organisations.

A major block to integrated decisions for transport is how public decision-makers view these decisions with a particular technical bias. According to Carley and Christie (1992), technical bias causes "unwitting failures of policy integration". Government organisation reflects the tendency toward technical bias, with poor communication between departments or sectors pursuing divergent and often competing objectives (Carley and Christie, 1992, p. 155).

Clearly, such organisational structures tend to work against the prov1Slon of an integrated transport network and the achievement of social and environmental goals. A pre World War II example of this fragmentation is when the NSW Parliament separated the administration of the railways, tramways and buses in the 1930s (Black, et al, 1983).

- 1 - More recently, in 1997 the New South Wales public sector rail provider has been split into separate organizations.

While transport policies increasingly focus on integrated transport development (for example in Australia, Warren Centre for Advanced Engineering, 2002; New South Wales Government, 1993; Australian Federation of Construction Contractors, 1993; NSW DUAP, new release 2001), and a substantial body of knowledge exists about the interactions between transport and land use (for example, Gillingwater, 1983; Putnam, 1983; de la Barra, 1989; Williams, 1989; Miyamoto, et al, 1995; Hayashi and Roy, 1996; Cervero and Landis, 1997), there is no single, overall decision-making framework that brings everything together to "provide a single integrated solution to immediate local needs" (NSW Audit Office, 1997, p. 168). How well that integration is accomplished - and in fact what the integration actually accomplishes - is unclear. Although it is recognised that policies that allow for increased mobility, especially by private automobile are unsustainable, "whether an 'integrated transport strategy' has the potential to deliver a more sustainable pattern of transport appears to be almost unquestioned accepted wisdom" (Potter and Skinner, 2000, p. 275).

In relation to transport provision, compartmentalism between roads and other forms of transport has caused project decisions that are not always the "best" solution, as stated by Union Intemationale du Transports Publics (UITP):

"The separation of institutional responsibilities for roads and transport can lead to sub-optimal decision-making in terms of urban transport investment. The trade-offs between roads for cars, and public transportation are often not taken into account when these investments are managed through separate funding and responsibility hierarchies. Similarly, the fragmentation of responsibilities for transport modes (bus, light rail, suburban train) leads to sub-optimal planning in terms of modal integration" (UITP, 1993, p. 178).

The main characteristic of a link in a transport network is that its benefits cannot be understood without consideration of its effects on the entire multi-modal network. Effective investment in transport infrastructure means explicit consideration of intermodality and interchange, because transport projects cannot be assigned a relative preference without explicit consideration of individual projects' multimodal, system wide impacts. Urban transport is where these impacts are likely to be most keenly felt. However, both intermodality and interchange have received little explicit attention both in the literature and in practical application in investment decisions. One possible reason for this is the problem of measurement.

In practice, much of the effort has been expended in quantifying the seemingly un quantifiable effects of transport, for use in decision-making frameworks that were not originally conceived to include them. This is a key point developed below, because it is

-2- then not certain that the resulting decisions have adequately considered all decision dimensions.

In the case of transport externalities, there is debate on exactly how much individual transport modes cost in terms of accidents, noise, air pollution and other climatic effects (for example, see Kellogg, Brown and Root, 2002, in the stakeholder scoping of the urban public transport futures feasibility study for Canberra). The relative order of these effects (from the most expensive to least expensive) is (Mauch and Rothengatter, 1994): 1. private vehicles; 2. road based public transport; and 3. rail.

This suggests that the modes whose vehicles carry greater numbers of passengers per vehicle are more desirable because their external effects (often external to current economic decision making frameworks) are likely to be less adverse. The quantum of these costs varies from situation to situation, and there is not a generally accepted per trip reporting measure. As with reporting on sustainable development (Sharma, 1999), no situation has a generally accepted approach in practice.

Estimating passenger demand for transport projects confounds this problem. How much demand is the result of the transport linlc generating new traffic and/or diverting traffic from existing modes, and how much is latent demand? When the demand for transport overall is increasing, how much of it is a shift from the less-than-optimal transport modes to the more effective ones? Models of transport systems often assign forecast trips to modes based on the concept of individual travel times. But there can be a contradiction in the expression of individual travel desires and behaviours, and collective aspirations for achievement of social and environmental goals.

To address these ldnds of problems - multi-modal network effects, demand, externalities, and so on- a decision-making framework that considers whole-of-journey effects is needed. To date, there are no generally accepted methods to consolidate network-wide effects of a particular transport project in decision-making. This is especially the case if the project spans more"than one transport mode, even though a link between two transport systems is more effective (in terms of creation of additional trip opportunities) than a link between two nodes in an existing mode-specific system. A rail linlc from a city centre to an airport is an example, and one that provides an alternative to road-based ground access to airports. That is, central business district (CBD) to airport rail links are really about both rail and air modes of transport. CBD-airport rail linlcs therefore provide an excellent case study around which to examine new decision maldng frameworks.

Although there is increasing interest worldwide in airport ground transport, there is surprisingly little comprehensive information available. Internet sites are usually for individual airports and rail systems only, although there is now an Internet site that deals with airport railways (International Air Rail Organisation, 2003). However, the information that it provides is limited to the type of rail network involved and URLs to

- 3- airport and railway web sites. Its completeness and accuracy are unknown. Not all of its links are active, and those that are active provide varying levels of detail, in different formats, and not always in English. Further, while there have been a few recent studies that compare CBD-airport rail links (Negrette and Brittle, 1974; US Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, 1978; Gosling, 1996; Laboratory for Transport Analysis and Modelling, 1999), they are selective and compare only a few such links, and are not always comprehensive of the global situation. An airport ground access workshop conducted on the Internet (Transportation Research Board, 1998) cited a lack of comparative studies and accepted criteria to enable identification of best practices in airport access.

Australia's goals for environmentally sustainable development (ESD) (Commonwealth of Australia, 1991) are congruent with the emphasis on integrated use of transport to and from the airport. An efficient and competitive transport sector is one in which all modes operate in concert, and where the most effective use of transport infrastructure is maintained. In short, ESD goals imply a more holistic view of transport systems. CBD airport rail links are of interest, not because they offer another way to get to the airport and back, but because they are a "missing link" between ground and air transport 11 11 systems. However, current institutional arrangements can encourage mode myopia , where transport planning begins with a transport link being identified as a specific mode before any realistic alternatives are canvassed. Intermodal or whole-of-journey opportunities tend to be considered later in the formal project development process, if at all.

Shifts from the most environmentally costly mode to the ones that are less costly can be encouraged through the provision of increased origin and destination opportunities in less environmentally expensive modes. One way is to provide opportunities for at least one leg of a journey to be undertaken by more cost-effective modes, which calls for provision of effective interchange facilities.

There are signs of the development of a more comprehensive framework for public transport decisions. The European Commission has sponsored transport research into the aspects of intermodal quality and methods for multimodal transport environmental impact assessment (Community Research and Development Information Service, 1999). In the United States, the lntermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA) demonstrates the trend of amalgamation of information about transpmiation systems and more attention on cross-modal issues (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 1999). Intermodal performance measures used by states' Departments of Transport in the United States have been collected and analysed (Czernialc, et al, 1996). However these measures are optional and are not applied uniformly across multi-modal transport systems.

The decision-making process for investment in public transport is relatively complex and far from uniform. One suggested improvement is to include transport network synergies, or the performance of specific sites on a network in terms of their contributions to network cohesiveness (Frybourg and Nijkamp, 1996, p. 468). This might be measured by:

-4- • interconnectivity -the number of destinations that can be reached within a given travel distance; • intermodal flexibility - the number of modes actually in use, adjusted for relative system capacities (such as the number of passenger trips); • spatial-economic efficiency - average costs to reach other destinations; and • geographical accessibility - average journey time including the effects of congestion.

Another source (Rothengatter, 1996, pp. 208-209) suggests that integrated transport investment decisions could be made using a series of econometric and decision models that include economic, regional and urban impacts, as well as environmental sustainability and safety issues. The suggested methods of valuation here are: • private rates of return; • cost benefit analysis; and • multi-criteria analysis using cardinal and ordinal scales.

What is missing in these frameworks is an effective way put all decision dimensions in context. Without synthesis, these frameworks will remain in the realm of specialists. There is a risk that the balance between decision dimensions will be lost in technical detail for the individuals that actually make the decisions about transport projects.

1.1.2 Future Transport Investment Decision Needs Whilst the problems identified above with current transport investment decisions are relevant to many countries of the world, future needs must be considered in the context of a particular country. In Australian practice, decisions about future transport infrastructure projects will be affected by, namely: • the recognised need for the integration of transport/land use planning (Industry Commission, 1994; NSW Government, 1993), which is hoped to achieve more effective transport links; • a more pragmatic approach to infrastructure investment, such as private sector participation in the provision of rail transport infrastructure (Parliament of NSW, 1993; New South Wales Government, 2000; Department of Treasury and Finance, 2001), which, it is hoped, will return more mobility for each dollar spent; and • competition policy (Hilmer, 1993), which strives to deliver more innovative and cost effective transport solutions.

The problem is there are inherent trade-offs to be made to satisfy these needs, and current decision-maldng frameworks in Australia do not mal(e these immediately explicit.

-5- 1.2 Objective of Research This thesis focuses on two deficiencies in current decision-making practice in transport investment, namely:

1. the lack of a decision-making framework that systematically includes economic, environmental and social decision dimensions; and 2. the lack of clear consideration of the system-wide effects of the decisions made.

There is a lack of a coherent decision-making framework for transport investment. The objective of this thesis is to develop a decision-making framework that will explicitly consider the economic, social, environmental and intermodal effects of public investment in transport infrastructure. In order to do this, the effects of transport and land use, transport and the environment, modes of transport, and a single link and the broader transport network in which it operates will be considered.

The development of such a new framework, as proposed in this thesis, is applied to CBD-airport rail links, because this type of transport investment is expected to have not only economic and social aspects, but also explicit environmental and intermodal issues associated with it. The significance and originality of this research can be assessed as follows. There are few prior studies on rail ground access to airports (Transportation Research Board, 1998). Those that exist are mainly descriptive or normative in nature and/or involve a limited number of locations (Negrette and Brittle, 1974; US Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, 1978; Netty, 1995; Gosling, 1996; Laboratory for Transport Analysis and Modelling, 1999). None have explicitly discussed the decision-making framework.

Each of the stages in the development of this thesis is briefly discussed below to provide an overview of the scope of this thesis.

1.3 Methodology The methodology used comprises: • a literature review of current decision-making frameworks for transport investment; • exploration of the impacts of current decisions for investment in urban rail infrastructure via development of a simplified mathematical model of city to airport traffic that involves social and environmental considerations; • collection and analysis of information about culTent CBD-airport links from a questionnaire survey of airport and rail operators worldwide; and • development of a new decision-making framework for investment in public transport infrastructure that explicitly incorporates social, environmental, cross modal and environmental decision dimensions for the various "publics"1 that are affected by the investments.

1 e.g. travellers on a transport link, travellers on a particular mode, all travellers in a regional, multi-modal transport network and the community as a whole

-6- 1.3.1 Literature Review The aim of this chapter is to review the various frameworks that have been used by transport providers to decide where infrastructure should be built. These decision making frameworks have been grouped into four categories - technological, economic, risk and planning - and form the main sections of this literature review chapter. Their uses in rail transport practice, as well as their potential weaknesses, are discussed. From this, gaps in the literature are identified.

1.3.2 Fundamentals in CBD-Airport Traffic Models are but a guide for decision-makers. This chapter explores the theoretical implications of decision-making frameworks and contemporary decision-making for urban rail by building on a simplified two route, two zone mathematical model of city to airport ground transport. This illustrates current modelling approaches and makes explicit what is excluded from current decision-making. Social and environmental factors are at best partially included by current transport models, which either focus on an aggregate system with no differentiation among particular groups, or concentrate on individual preferences. Model enhancements are suggested, using the CBD to airport transport example.

1.3.3 Survey of Rail and Airport Operators Airport ground access has been chosen to develop and demonstrate a decision-making framework for investment in transport infrastructure, because it links ground-based and air-based transport systems. There have been few studies in the area, although the increased interest in the area can be seen through research recently starting in Europe and in North America. This type of link has the potential to be an effective investment in transport infrastructure, providing relatively more travel origins and destinations per dollar invested.

Rail-based transport that links cities and air terminals has the potential to augment existing road and air transport networks, offering congestion relief on established links. As there has been no comprehensive survey of all CBD-airport rail links, a questionnaire survey of rail operators and airport operators was designed.

An expert panel of transport planners and decision-makers was used to pilot the survey. The survey was administered in two parts. The first part is primarily concerned with collecting statistics on CBD-airport rail link characteristics, such as route length, fares, station features, timetabling and so on. The second part focuses on the decision-making processes, sources of funding and critical success factors. The first part of the survey was conducted in 1995 and had a 50% response rate. The second was conducted in 1997 and had a 37% response rate. The survey has been updated by a search of web sites (Appendix E provides a complete list of the sites accessed).

Survey results have been used to draw conclusions about airport rail link investment decisions and to develop a set of decision-making criteria for similar investments. Specific tasks are to:

-7- • develop a database of CBD-airport rail link statistics and provide information for analysis; • develop transport investment criteria that include economic, social, environmental and intermodal factors.

1.3.4 Development of a New Decision-Making Framework A critical appraisal of current practice has identified weaknesses and the need for a new approach. A new decision-making framework is developed that specifically includes major decision dimensions for transport investment. It is summarised in a graphical presentation (a radar graph, according to MicroSoft©), with axes that represent financial/economic, social, environmental and cross modal decision dimensions. Performance values for each dimension can be plotted along the relevant axis, and the relationship of each dimension can be assessed visually.

In this graphical approach, there are four nested areas that comprise groups of people affected by transport project decisions. The social groups relevant to transport investment decisions- from smallest to largest in number- are: • travellers on the transport linlc; • travellers on the mode-specific network (e.g. road, rail); • travellers on the regional, multi-modal transport network; and • the community as a whole.

Per capita effects - scaled by the relevant social group - can then be plotted by decision dimension, providing decision-malcers with a clear representation of the balance between decision dimensions and the groups affected by a proposed transport infrastructure investment.

1.4 Organisation of Thesis This thesis is organised into six substantive chapters, plus an introduction and conclusions: • Chapter 1 Introduction • Chapter2 Literature Review • Chapter 3 Fundamentals in the Analysis of CBD-Airport Traffic • Chapter4 Survey of CBD-Airport Rail Links • Chapter 5 Further Analysis ofCBD-Airport Rail Links • Chapter 6 A New Decision-Making Framework for Investment in Transport Infrastructure • Chapter 7 Testing the New Decision-Making Framework: Application to Brisbane Airtrain • Chapter 8 Thesis Conclusions

- 8- • Appendices A: Proposed Survey Topics B: Identified CBD-Airport Rail Links C: Questionnaires (First Survey) D: Questionnaires (Second Survey) E: Airport and Rail Operator Information F: Regional Population Sources

The literature review (Chapter 2) includes: • background information on the government policy and decision-making environment in general, and for transport investment in particular; • a review of the types of decision-making frameworks found in the literature- for convenience, these have been put into four main groups, based on an assessment of their primary focus (e.g. technological frameworks focus on physical solutions, economic frameworks on maximisation of collective well being, risk frameworks on risk minimisation, and planning frameworks on the complexities of land-use and environmental goals); • a review of the types of transport planning models fotmd in the literature (conventional four-step, behavioural demand, linked transport/land-use and integrated transport/land-use); • a review of the changing environment in which decision-making frameworks and the transport planning models supporting them are applied, with specific attention to the need for integration in decisions that would result in "sustainable mobility" and the tendency, in practice, to make transport investment decisions in a fragmented way; and • critiques of the decision-making frameworks found in the literature and identification of potential gaps in their consideration of economic, social and environmental goals, and transport investment impacts on the broader, multi modal transport network.

The mathematical model ofCBD to airport transport (Chapter 3) is developed to: • demonstrate how models of physical transport networks are used as a major ingredient in the formulation of a set of future scenarios that are used in economic decision-making frameworks, and from which investment decisions are subsequently made; and • illustrate what is excluded from these models in practice - which generally includes effects whose main impact is on the community as a whole, rather than a smaller group of transport system users.

Results of the analysis of this model, particularly the "enhanced" model that indicates the extent of the externalities that are either inconsistently included or excluded from transport planning practice, are used to discuss potential justifications for a rail link from the city to the airport.

-9- The two-part questionnaire survey of CBD-airport rail links is covered in Chapters 4 and 5. Chapter 4 includes: • the rationale for study of such transport links (including that they are of growing significance worldwide, have the potential to augment existing ground access to airports and offer road congestion relief); • a description of how the questionnaire was developed and administered; and • presentation and analysis of the results of the first part of the survey - including sample size and response rates, characteristics of the respondent population, a working definition of a CBD-airport rail link, connectivity issues, and development of critical success factors.

Chapter 5 builds on the analysis from Chapter 4, and begins with a description of the responses to the second part of the questionnaire survey, then summarises operating CBD-airport rail links from the results of both surveys and additional web-based sources. Links are analysed and compared by a number of characteristics, including: • comparisons of road and rail speeds, rail station characteristics, sources of funding for construction and operation; • analysis of what decision-making criteria rail operators and airport operators actually used for investment in CBD-airport rail links - the criteria surveyed included technological, financial/economic, community needs, land use, risk assessment, environmental and market demand considerations; and • conclusions about what institutional decision-makers consider important to the success of CBD-airport rail links, and how these apply to the relative success of known links.

Chapter 6 sets out a new decision-making framework for investment in transport infrastructure that presents the balance between economic, social, cross-modal and environmental decision dimensions in a summary form for non-technical decision makers. This decision-making framework also summarises the impacts of these dimensions on transport linlc travellers, travellers on the entire mode, travellers on the urban area's multi-modal transport network, and the community as a whole. Sydney's CBD-airport link is used as a case study to demonstrate the use of this new decision making framework, and its potential viability is assessed using this framework.

Chapter 7 tests the new decision-making framework using the Brisbane CBD-airp01i rail link.

- 10- 2 LITERATURE REVIEW: DECISION-MAKING FRAMEWORKS 2.1 Introduction 2.1.1 Background To begin to understand what might be changed in current decision-making practice, frameworks that have been used by transport providers to decide where infrastructure should be built are examined. This chapter details the results of a literature search on decision-making frameworks, their features, potential weaknesses, and their specific application to decisions about investment in urban rail infrastructure. These decision making frameworks have been grouped into four categories - technological, economic, risk and planning - and form the main sections of this chapter. Their uses in rail transport practice, as well as their potential weaknesses, are also discussed.

The following section covers the government policy context in which decisions for public sector investment in urban transport infrastructure are made. The section following this discusses the decision-making frameworks for investment in transport infrastructure that are identified in the literature, particularly in relation to rail infrastructure. These decision-making frameworks are organised into four broad categories, being technological, economic, risk and planning decision-making frameworks, and are covered in detail in subsequent sections. The next major section discusses the types of transport models identified from the literature that underpin decisions about investment in transport infrastructure. The use of these models in transport investment decisions and their ability to incorporate broader transport objectives are analysed. The final sections discuss the forces for change in current transport decision-making practice, and identify key elements that should be included in such frameworks.

2.1.2 Government Decision-Making and Policy Public infrastructure investment decisions can be seen as a part of broader governmental policy cycle. For example, an eight-step Australian policy cycle (Bridgman and Davis, 2000) comprises: • issues identification; • policy analysis; • policy instruments; • consultation; • coordination; • decision; • implementation; and • evaluation .

- 11- Views of this type are based on systems theory and scientific method (Palmer, 2001), and characterise the process as an endless cycle of policy decisions, their implementation, and subsequent performance assessment (Colebatch, 1998, p. 55).

As Figure 2.1 illustrates, decisions about investment in transport infrastructure fit into identification of possible solutions - solutions specifically related to transport provision. Desired objectives (in the right hand series in Figure 2.1) may include a higher modal split to public transport or relate to management of the demand for transport. Inputs include requirements for dollars, staffing, skills, experience, and physical facilities. Processes relate to what is done - specific tasks, activities and strategies. Outputs relating to transport provision would include services or mobility provided. Outcomes relate to the changes in society and for travellers as a result of changed services and/or mobility.

D estre . d ob" ~ec f 1ves

J Problem recognition l ~ .a I Inputs I .... .a Policy evaluation Identification of Processes possible solutions 1-< I .a I Outputs I Policy I Choice of best ~ "- implementation .. solution .a , Outcomes l Policy termination

Figure 2.1 The Policy Cycle Source: Palmer, 2001 (Internet source)

Although the theoretical model of a policy cycle is simplistic and does not reflect the complexities and interactions that occur in practice, it does influence Australian policy thinking (Palmer, 2001). These processes are broadly similar to those found in North America (Kerwin, 1999; Nagel, 1999) and Europe (Sabatier, 1999; Sutton, 1999), and therefore represents a reasonably general model of the policy cycle.

2.2 Transport Infrastructure Decision-Making Decisions about investment in transport infrastructure in Europe and North American attach increasing importance to social and environmental aspects (National Transport Planning Taskforce, 1994; Hutabarat, et al, 1998; Stradling, et al, 1998; Yosie and Herbst, 1998). Newman and Kenworthy (1999, pp. 1-6) trace the history of

- 12- sustainability and global politics, and how sustainable development processes have been proceeding at many different levels, from national, state and local governments, as well as in industry (Owens, 2002; Moriarty, 2000; Organisation for Economic Coordination and Development, 1999 and 1998; Beaton, 1999; Hayashi, et al, 1999; Button, et al, 1998). Underlying these, however, is the more pragmatic issue of funding (Thomas and Beaufoy, 2002).

Australian transport infrastructure decisions reflect the same imperatives. Here, the dominant decision-making framework used in practice for transport decisions in the public sector, especially in New South Wales, is based on economic evaluation, augmented by consideration of "non economic" impacts (NSW Treasury, 1997; NSW Roads and Traffic Authority, 1999). For transport investment appraisals these can include environmental factors, impacts on adjacent property and on pedestrians. For instance, the EIS Guidelines on Roads and Related Facilities, issued by the NSW Department of Urban Affairs and Planning (1996, p. 11 ), makes it clear that any proposal must be justified having regard to biophysical, economic and social constraints and the principles of ecologically sustainable development: "continual reference should be made to the question, 'Is this proposal ecologically sustainable?"'

In Australia (NSW Roads and Traffic Authority, 2001; Thomas, 2001), as in many countries of the world (for example, Fischer, 2002; European Conference of Ministers for Transport, 2000), governments have introduced legislation to analyse the environmental impacts of developments (Gilpin, 1995). For large transport projects, Environmental Impact Assessments, called for by the New South Wales Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979, are also made. The Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) process entails consultation with other government bodies, interested parties and community groups. Alternative solutions are also considered in the EIS and a preferred course of action is recommended to the government as the decision-maker, irrespective of whether the proposal came from the public or private sector.

Transport providers need to decide where, and how much, infrastructure investment should be made. The cost of capital investment in transport is large. Investment in urban rail in Australia totals $600 to $700 million per year for the cities of Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth (Industry Commission of NSW, 1994, p. 7). Coupled with increased transport demand, this means that more needs to be achieved with less. As can be seen in Figure 2.2, investment in road transport infrastructure has declined significantly as a proportion of GDP. Most major road links that exist today have been established in the 1950s (Economic Planning Advisory Commission, 1995, p. 49). Spending in subsequent years has focused mainly on upgrading existing road-based links. By comparison, investment in rail, air and sea transport has remained more constant, and at lower levels than road infrastructure.

Further, it does not appear that declining infrastructure investment will be reversed in the near future. The Commonwealth Government of Australia has decreased ftmds available to the states for infrastructure investments, and under the constitution it is the states that are responsible for most public sector investment (Juddery, 1991, p. 49). If growth in Australia's population and the decline in public investment are viewed together, it suggests that either (a) public infrastructure is being used more efficiently, or

- 13 - (b) it is being allowed to deteriorate (Langmore, 1991 ). Both situations probably exist. A recent survey of Australian road, rail, port and airport infrastructure concluded that it needs urgent attention and that its development and maintenance suffers from a lack of integration and coordination (Yates and Jackson, 2001 p. 24).

Figure 2.2 Investment in Transport Infrastructure as a Percentage of GDP, 1950- 1993 Per cent of GOP 2.5

2 __.... _,., _,., ,, / _, I ' ' , _ L.S +/ ' ' \ \ .... ,.--.., I I ' ROIId.s.... _,---..._ ' \ , __ .__,.,.. Air&. sea, .. . 0.5 .. '· ' .. .' ' ...... 0 .. • ·- • 1950 1?55 196(1 196S 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

( ource: conomic Planning Advisory Commission, 1995, p. 50)

The public sector is being forced to carefully examine the way it spends its dwindling pool of funds. Private-sector involvement, arguably not a new idea given the private investment that fuelled transport for the industrial r volution in the UK is being looked to as a potential source of funds, either through direct investment or cost saving from contracting out previously public services to private organisations. (Chapman 2002; Arnold-Forster 1997; European Conference of Ministers of Transport 1993; Round Table on Transport Economics, 1990; Organisation for Economic Coordination and Development 1987; Teal, 1987; Smerk, 1986). Such alternatives may be useful as a source of financing, but they do not get at the basic problem of making better choices about where infrastructure money is spent.

It costs the public sector more to maintain increasing levels of urban sprawl because of the need to provide physical and social infrastructure in newly developing areas (Hughes Trueman Ludlow/Dwyer Leslie, 1991). Judicious provision of good public transport could be used to foster denser development in existing urban areas (Newman and Kenworthy, 1999; Black, 1996; New South Wales Department of Urban Affairs and Planning, 2001), saving public expenditure in the long term.

- 14- These factors point to the need for wise project decisions for the provision of public infrastructure. Current project decisions made by public-sector agencies may have room for improvement. For example, the methods decision-makers use for evaluation may be improved. In transport decisions, environmental issues are important, and include: • how to control the environmental impacts of traffic congestion (Acutt and Dodgson, 1997); and • how private provision of infrastructure may change the way environmental policies are implemented (Potter and Enoch, 1997).

Increasing public concerns about environmental issues and sustainability concepts also need to be considered when making decisions about infrastructure investments. More work needs to be done to formally incorporate these concerns in public sector decision making. It is necessary to have a look at the possible decision-making frameworks that can be used. Here, a "decision-making framework" is defined as a method of presenting relevant information to decision-makers (typically, the government) and providing an evaluation method for project alternatives. To do this, we concentrate on decision making in railway investment as a specific example.

2.2.1 Rail Transport Decisions Of all the transport modes, rail is especially interesting to examine from a decision making perspective: it is a mature technology with a development for passenger transport stretching back almost two centuries. Originally, rail was a private-sector venture in the UK and USA, driven by commercial imperatives and speculation in land and future business (Ellis, 1959; O'Brien, 1983; Holbrook, 1947). It was during this time that "railway mania" in the UK (Ellis, 1959) and "railroad fever" in the USA (Holbrook, 194 7) took hold, and the economic growth that accelerated in the second 1 half of the l8 h century was accompanied by expansion in the supply of transportation.

From 1845, railways in the UK were typically unplanned developments, reflecting the anti-monopolistic sentiments of the public (Ellis, 1959), and it was not until 1947 that the British Transport Commission was established to provide a national inland transport system in times of peace in Great Britain. More recently, government operations of rail services were again transferred to the private sector (UK Department of Transport, 1993), although responsibility for the track in Britain has now reverted back to the government.

In the United States, urban mass transportation was originally provided by the private sector (Black, 1995, p. 79). Public involvement began with the construction of new subways, such as those in Boston and New York, because they involved large capital investments. However, private companies operated them lmder long-term leases. A few transit companies (about 2%) were publicly owned in the 1940s. In the 1950s patronage declined markedly and most private companies began to lose money and many went out of business. In some larger cities, these companies were taken over by the public sector or subsidised - but often on a reduced scale. Many more transit companies went into public ownership in the 1960s and 1970s, with the Urban Mass Transportation Act of 1964 introducing federal capital grants that could be used to buy out private companies.

- 15- In Australia, railways were developed to connect developing urban centres with its hinterland, providing access the gold fields of the west, and links for shipment of agricultural products with the major export seaports (Meinig, 1962; Department of Transport and Regional Services, 2001). The Sydney Railway Company was formed in 1849 to build a 14-mile rail link from Sydney to Parramatta. However, its private ownership ended in 1855, when the board of the Sydney Railway Company invited the government to buy the company and assume the line's operation, making it the first government-owned railway in the British Empire. At the time, it was believed that state owned railways would be important in the improvement of the Australian colonies (Adam-Smith, 1983, p. 18). The age of"colonial socialism" (Sturgess, 1993), marked by the development of public utility services, supported by the emerging arguments of economies of scale and natural monopolies, had begun in Australia and overseas.

The trend towards public ownership of rail infrastructure continued until the 1980s. By that time, there was rapid growth in passenger railways' financial deficits (Dodgson, 1979), and it was increasingly recognised that the decline in public sector infrastructure investment (most of Sydney's passenger rail network was constructed by the late 1930s) was adversely affecting economic productivity (Aschauer, 1989).

Empirical decision-making frameworks for public investments in rail infrastructure can be categorised as: • technological; • economic; • risk; and • planning.

Table 2.1 shows a particular focus for each category of decision-making framework. For rail transport, a technological decision-making framework would focus on alternative physical solutions, and the objectives of the decision being considered would be stated in these terms. Economic frameworks for rail investment decisions would similarly focus on overall community well being. Risk decision-mal

Table 2.1 Focus of Decision-Making Frameworks Decision-mal

Examples of each type of framework, their potential weaknesses, as well as the connection between the category and the history of rail transport decision-making in Australia are now presented.

- 16- 2.2.2 Technological Frameworks Technological decision-making frameworks are concerned with the physical aspects of infrastructure; physical catalysts, problems and solutions. This orientation commenced with the introduction of railways in Australia in the 1850s. At the time, the railways were seen as a technological miracle of the time and the romantic attachment of present day enthusiasts of rail transport began about this time. In 1912, the Trans-Australian Railway, which would link Kalgoorlie in Western Australia and Port Augusta in South Australia, was begun.

"It was one of the greatest engineering achievements of the age. A railway was to be laid across a land traversed so far by only explorers and a few intrepid folk, across a country where - because no working man lived - no labour could be provided, no shelter, food, or amenities offered; where, in short, no aid could be given. It was to be truly a modem miracle, and the toughest gang of men yet assembled in Australia turned up to booze, barrack, sweat and drag a ribbon of steel with them as they strained their way across" (Adam-Smith, 1983, p. 144).

The institutionalisation of mode-specific transport also began at this time for rail technologies, and has continued with relatively little reform into the present. The railways in Australia were introduced from the 1850s onwards (Department of Transport and Regional Services, 2002b). At the time of Federation in 1901, Australia had six state-operated railway systems (Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering, 1988). Although most of the systems started as private companies, they soon ran into financial difficulties and were acquired by the public sector.

From their beginning, rail technologies were associated with what might be called "engineering judgment" decision-making. For example, nine witnesses in a 1908/09 Royal Commission regarding Sydney city improvements (including railways) were engineers - the largest professional group represented (Ashton, 1993, p. 35). In the development of the South Australian railway system, the dominance of engineering solutions and government policies are clearly apparent (Fitch, 2001).

In Sydney, Dr J J C Bradfield was the Chief Engineer Metropolitan Railway Construction in the Department of Public Works (Yandell, 1980). Electrification of the city's rail lines was approved by the NSW parliament in 1915 (Burke, 1995), and Bradfield's engineering plans changed the face of Sydney in the 1920s. His planned rail links for Sydney are shown in Figure 2.3 (Department of Public Works, 1915). Bradfield's work was visionary in many respects, but focused primarily on rail transport. From Bradfield's time until the present, institutions have been made that fragment the responsibilities for transport modes in Australia (Black, 1999). A pre World War II example is when the NSW Parliament separated the administration of the railways, tramways and buses in the 1930s (Black, et al, 1983).

- 17- r ~('.., 5"41• , ...... ,.

..... Rf': ·~C!~t:

O~·.,r ~O~fl ~ 1-J, . .-n, h.r I• .. 11 t;.

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1909.

Figure 2.3 Bradfield's Planned Rail Network for Sydney (Source: Department of Public Works, 19 J 5)

- 18- 2.2.2.1 Engineering Judgement An example of a technological decision-making framework is "engineering judgement" (Wallis, 1978). It avoids quantifying intangibles (that is, social costs and benefits that do not have a market price, but comprise part of the level of satisfaction of the community) in the same units as tangible costs and benefits. Instead, intangibles are expressed qualitatively. In this framework, the engineer as project decision-maker receives guidance from government policy, advice of colleagues and perhaps, occasionally, by opinions of community representatives.

2.2.2.2 Technical Adequacy Assessment A more recent technical decision-making framework, "technical adequacy assessment" has also been used in Australia to assess urban roads (BTCE, 1995). This framework uses engineering related criteria to identify portions of a transport network that are deficient.

2.2.2.3 Criticisms of Technological Frameworks In technological decision-making frameworks, questions concerning scarcity of resources are not considered explicitly, only the global allocations from the government's budgeting process. The physical focus of this framework results in incomplete consideration of the non-physical aspects of the project decision. The main wealmess of technical adequacy assessment is that the analysis of relative need is limited to the transport network. Decisions tend to be framed by technocrats and depend on "how accurately the engineer understands and represents the interests and priorities ofthe community concerned" (Wallis, 1978, p. 626).

The engineering related standards that are used in technical adequacy assessment apt to be arbitrary (BTCE, 1995, p.6). An assessment of technical needs may reveal no deficiencies, but an upgrading may be worthwhile (BTE, 1999, Chapter 1, p. 7). Conversely, parts of a transport network may be deficient, but not worth additional investment, as in the case of rail lines serving abandoned grain storage depots.

When compared to economic decision-making frameworks (below), projects chosen using technical adequacy assessment result in lower benefits (McFarland and Memmot, 1987).

2.2.3 Economic Frameworks Economic decision-maldng frameworks are now used extensively in Australia. They derive their inspiration from the AASHO guidelines on rural road evaluation (AASHO, 1960; Blunden, 1971) that in turn drew on the methodology being adopted by private enterprise. Transport investment decisions are made using economic decision-making frameworks, but normally commence with an assumption concerning the transport mode for which the investment is made. Generally speaking, a project is a road project, or a rail project, or another mode-specific project, and the interaction (or cross modal effects) between the project and other modes is generally ignored or, at best, superficially included.

- 19 - There is a large theoretical literature on cost-benefit analysis (for example, Litman, 2001; Sullivan, 2000; Sinden, 1995; Layard and Glaister, 1994; Williams, et al, 1993; Jenkins and Harberger, 1988; Sugden and Williams, 1985; Gramlich, 1981; Anderson and Settle, 1979; Mishan, 1977; Dasgupta and Pearce, 1972; Harberger, 1972). In addition, books on urban transport planning usually devote a chapter to appraisal or evaluation techniques (for example, Ortuzar and Willumsen, 1994, chapter 11; Blunden and Black, 1984, Chapter 3; Black 1981, Chapter 4).

Economic decision-making frameworks are used for rail transport decisions (Reynolds, 2000; European Conference of Ministers of Transport, 1992; Austroads, 1996; Seskin, 1990; Adler, 1987; Jones, 1977; Bos and Koyck, 1961) at a time when the rail mode itself has had a long-term decrease in mode share. It is interesting to reproduce a summary of the broad sweep of technological developments in transport (Figure 2.4) to see how patronage of the road network continues to expand while the rail network has stagnated and even declined. The decline of the rail network is particularly apparent in passenger transport in metropolitan areas of Australia. While urban public transport was once the growth area of public transport, by 1995 private road vehicles represented about 93% of city passenger transport (Department of Transport and Regional Services, 2000, p. 8).

10 ~------. c ------······················· ·€ 08 &. 0 -ot!ler .2: 0 6 - rod c;.. ~ hilS i 0.4 E 02 oot:~~~~~~~~~~~ 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Figure 2.4 Road and Rail Mode Shares (Source: Bureau of Transport Economics, 1999a)

According to the Rail Industry Council (1990 p. 56), the reasons for the long-term decline in rail: " ... are complex and include the run-down of assets from the war until the late 1970s, lack of long-term FederaVState coordination, inefficient regulation and a constricting but interdependent mix of modem and moribund rail technology and management/work practices. These features have corresponded with a period of sustained development of road infrastructure, an incremental relaxation of road transport operating and labour market regulations, and improvement in the quality of services being offered by road transport."

- 20- Since the late 1980s, governments in Australia have focused on encouraging the rail authorities to act along more commercial lines (Industry Commission, 1994). However, investment decision-making in practice still tends to begin with appraisal of transport mode-specific proposals.

Traditional economic evaluation is also known as cost benefit analysis. In it, both tangible and intangible costs and benefits are quantified. The critical aspects of this type of decision framework are: 1. which costs and benefits to include; 2. the quantum ofthese costs and benefits; 3. when costs and benefits occur over the life of the project; and 4. which discount rate to use to reflect the cost of capital to the decision-mal

Non physical aspects, called intangibles, are quantified using a number of methods, including assigning a value from observed behaviour, establishing a willingness to pay, establishing a willingness to approve government subsidies, comparative ranking of alternatives, estimating equivalent market value and guessing unit values (Wallis, 1978, p. 628).

Traditional cost benefit analysis has been refined to overcome some perceived weaknesses in this type of decision-making framework. These refinements include the explicit consideration of environmental effects and individual preferences. This is referred to as "environmental" cost benefit analysis, which is described in the next section. 2.2.3.1 Environmental Cost Benefit Analysis Environmental cost benefit analysis1 enhances the economic decision-making framework by explicit consideration of environmental costs and benefits. This type of framework is relatively new (Hanley and Spash, 1993; Common, 1996; Wills, 1997; Pearce, 1998; Dore and Mount, 1999; Garrod, eta!, 1999).

A problem in considering the environment is the monetary values to use for environmental effects of transport. Measurement may be done by direct and indirect valuation (Austroads, 2000, p. 2; Pearce and Turner, 1990, pp. 142-158), and includes: 1. direct costing; 2. dose-response techniques (New Zealand Ministry ofTransport, 1996); 3. shadow values (Bleijenberg eta!, 1994); 4. hedonic pricing (Nairn, Segal and Watson, 1994; Gatzlaff and Smith, 1993; Hughes and Sirmans, 1992; BIS Shrapnel, 1990); 5. contingent valuation (willingness to pay) (Bjornstad and Kahn, 1996; Tinch, 1995; Pearce and Markandya, 1987; Jones-Lee eta!, 1985);

1 Social cost benefit analysis is discussed in section 2.2.5.5.

-21- 6. travel cost approaches (Waters, 1995; Small, 1992; Abelson, 1986); and 7. control and mitigation costs (BTCE and NSW EPA, 1994).

More recently, the costs of environmental "externalities", or costs arising from outside the traditionally defined economic market, are included (IWW and INFRAS, 1995). Gastaldi, et al, (1996, pp. 217-218) review some recent and comprehensive studies on external costs in Europe. Their estimates of "sensible averages" (in the viewpoint of France) of transport externalities from these studies are reproduced in Table 2.2. (In this table, greenhouse emissions are zero for rail because refmery and electric power station emissions have not been included.)

Projects can be assessed for environmental sustainability in the economic decision making framework by setting a constraint on the depletion and degradation of the stock of natural capital (Pearce, et al, 1990, p. 127). All projects yielding net benefits should be undertaken, subject to the requirement that environmental damage (measured by natural capital depreciation) should be zero or negative. This recognises the interdependencies of project decisions in terms of sustainability, or a set of "environmentally compensating projects". According to this source, environmental cost benefit analysis is useful for evaluating a suite of projects, but not for individual project decisions. Table 2.2 External Costs of Passenger Transport (per 1,000 Passenger Kilometres)

Private car Coach Aircraft Train FF ECU FF ECU FF ECU FF ECU Noise 4.49 0.66 3.15 0.46 50.75 7.41 4.42 0.65 Atmospheric 42.35 6.18 10.95 1.60 33.56 4.90 0 0 pollution Unsafety Motorway 21.30 Motorway 3.11 5.26 0.77 0.34 0.05 0.27 0.04 Main road 44.69 Main road 6.52 Congestion Motorway 21.50 Motorway 3.14 0.50 O.D7 95.05 13.88 0 0 Main road 83.00 Main road 12.12 Greenhouse 26.74 3.90 16.37 2.39 45.70 6.67 0 0 effect (Source: Gastaldi, eta!, 1996, p. 211)

In practice, a sustainability constraint m an economic decision-making framework would mean that the evaluator must: 1. check carefully what environmental impacts a given program of investments is likely to have; 2. adjust the program in such a way that the overall net damage is as close to zero as possible; and 3. adjust the portfolio of investments with projects which generate environmental benefits.

To use this framework for an individual project, a portfolio of enviromnentally mitigating or shadow projects must be included in the project costs.

-22- In decision-making practice, transport externalities can be treated in a subjective and inconsistent manner in environmental cost benefit analysis. For example, the number of people living less than 300 metres from a proposed road could be included as part of the analysis, but this does not take into account the effect of noise mitigation measures undertaken as part of the project. The result is "irrational" decisions, with investment made to avoid negative externalities in some transport projects, and not in others (Gastaldi, eta!, 1995, p. 215). 2.2.3.2 Utility Theories Utility theories represent a branch of economic theory that concern themselves with the way in which individuals make decisions. According to this framework, decision makers consciously, or unconsciously, associate probabilities with contemplated actions. A decision-maker's "utility function" maximises the expected value of these probabilities. "Rational" decisions, then, maximise the decision-maker's expected utility (von Neumann and Morgenstern, 1947).

In transport, individuals' notions of utility are expressed in their demand behaviour making it possible to use travel behaviour to measure changes in utility (Rothengatter, 1993, p. 101). 2.2.3.3 Risk in Economic Decision-Making Frameworks Economic utility theories overlap with the mathematically based risk theories (Hirshleifer, 1989, p. 48). Economic decision-making frameworks include a "risk premium" in the discount rate. In actual cost benefit assessments, the risk premium is estimated.

Definitions of "risk" and "uncertainty" differ in economic decision-making frameworks. Risk is "... a situation where there are well defined, unique and generally accepted objective probabilities" (Kelsey and Quiggin, 1989, p. 2). Uncertainty, on the other hand, involves at best a set of "subjective probabilities". This is covered further in the following section. 2.2.3.4 Criticisms of Economic Decision-Making Frameworks Economic decision-making :fi:ameworks are widely used and their limitations are fairly well known (Self, 1975). The basic orientation of economics is towards improving overall welfare, but not the welfare of specific individuals. There is an inbuilt, conservative bias because willingness to pay depends on the ability to pay (wealth), which is also unevenly distributed (Commonwealth of Australia Department of Finance, 1991, p. 83). Other issues remain unresolved theoretically (Commonwealth of Australia, Department of Finance, 1991): • the conceptual basis and appropriate level of discount rate to use; • how to treat risk; • how to treat distributional effects; and • the role of shadow pricing.

Using an economic decision-making framework in transport project decisions also entails problems surrounding the valuation of costs and benefits, as well as the failure to

-23- accommodate satisfactorily issues not readily valued in monetary terms (for example, the environment, accessibility, and so on). In addition, the physical effects of transport on the environment are long lasting and can span generations- this creates problems in comparing options over time (Gastaldi, et al, 1995, p. 208). Economic evaluation also does not allow for technological change within the decision-making framework. Technology is seen as exogenous.

Bringing environmental sustainability arguments into economic decision frameworks increases their complexity by adding the need to consider a portfolio of shadow project costs and benefits, which when taken together, will have at least zero, if not positive, net benefits.

2.2.4 Risk Frameworl\:s Formalised approaches to risk based decisions appear to be gaining popularity in the Australian public sector. Risk management is currently endorsed for large infrastmcture projects (New South Wales, Public Works Department, 1993). Revealed and expressed preferences are increasingly used in demand analysis for transport projects (Louviere, et al, 2000; Bjornstad and Kahn, 1996; Hensher, 1994; Morikawa, 1989; Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985; Wong, 1978).

Risk ranking techniques are also used. One risk decision-making framework involves ranldng risks in a qualitative way on a simple numeric scale - for example, with 1 representing the lowest risk and 10 representing the highest risk. Other risk type decision-making frameworks include risk cost benefit analysis and probabilistic risk analysis (such as the expected net present value method described in NSW Treasury, 1997). 2.2.4.1 Risk Management Current infrastructure project management practice in Australia places increased importance on minimising risks. A risk management plan for large, complex, or innovative, public-sector projects is now required.

The risk management process includes: I. proposal familiarisation, where objectives, criteria and key elements are defined; 2. risk analysis, which involves identifying, assessing and ranking risks; 3. response planning, where responses to perceived risks are identified, the "best" response selected, and action schedules are prepared; 4. reporting, via collated schedules and management measures, or by writing a risk management plan; and 5. implementing the plan.

The procedures to handle risks are fairly straightforward. Identifying, ranking and minimising risks, however, can be more difficult tasks. The OECD (1987) has listed a number of risks related to private sector involvement in toll roads - many of which are

-24- also appropriate for rail projects- which it suggests their need to be allocated within a project's legal/contractual framework (see Table 2.3). Table 2.3 Risk Categories for Private Sector Involvement in Toll Roads

Category Description Political Risks • outbreak ofhostilities • withdrawallnationalisation of concession • change in fiscal regime • withdrawal of support/guarantee • interference in operation • interference in tariff policy • provision of alternative free route • legislation affecting traffic flows • legislation affecting standard of maintenance, etc . • failure to provide authority for construction or other permissions Financial Risks • failure to raise construction fmance • default on interest payments • default on loan/bond repayments • inflation during construction • inflation during operation • exchange rate movements • changes in economic policies • variation in interest rates Construction Risks • inadequacy of design • inadequacy of site investigation • unforeseen physical conditions • weather • failure of equipment, supplies • industrial relations • contractor performance failure • component failure • cost overrun • construction delay Operational Risks • equipment failure • accidental damage • latent construction defects • vandalism • industrial relations • employee dishonesty Commercial Risks • error in construction cost estimate • error in operating cost estimate • error in forecast of traffic volumes • error in forecast of tariffs • differential inflation • tariff war with competing transportation interests

(Source: OECD, 1987, pp. 25-27)

-25- 2.2.4.2 Revealed Preferences The revealed preferences technique is an informal approach to risk evaluation. It is useful in only a small number of problems. These problems are associated with various risk assessment frameworks and techniques. The key assumption for the use of revealed preferences is that the level of risk that has been tolerated in the past - as revealed by a post examination of data - is the correct basis for evaluating the acceptability of present risks.

The way individuals' preferences are revealed are through market behaviour (Schrader Frechette, 1985, p. 35) and in transport can be collected from travel surveys (for example, Hensher and Raimond, 1995, p. 11). Individuals are not specifically asked their preferences, rather their responses indicate preferences indirectly.

2.2.4.5 Risk Ranking Technique Central to many decision frameworks is the concept of ranking alternatives in preference order. One such technique (Chicken and Hayns, 1989) considers a matrix of project factors grouped as technical, economic or socio-political factors. For example, a relevant technical factor may be risk of deaths per year for the project lmder consideration. Economic factors will probably be related to return on investment, and socio-political factors to number of people in the "relevant population" who are in favour of project.

Specific factors will vary with the project. The risk inherent in each factor is assessed according to its acceptability. A scale of 0 to 4 is used; the higher the score, the lower the acceptability. The overall acceptability is determined by integrating the scores of the individual factors.

The success of the ranking technique depends on having a relevant, reliable analysis of the conditions of interest. It is also important that the significance of any errors built into the analysis is established. However, it is argued that this teclmique is also useful when there is little or no data available. In these cases, risk ranking provides a logical structure to the analysis.

Qualitative data can be used in this decision-making framework. If it is used, it is even more important that the precautions for minimising errors in data are used. These potential data errors can result from: • wrong concepts of data; • changing circumstances; • inappropriate transformations; and • lack of data points.

Simply collecting the data relevant to a project decision in a structured way and subjecting it to a critical examination provides insights into data quality and reliability, according to Chicken and Hayns.

-26- 2.2.4.6 Risk Cost Benefit Analysis Another risk oriented decision-making framework is based on economic cost benefit analysis (Schrader-Frechette, 1985), and is called risk cost benefit analysis or decision analysis, depending on the metric used. Risk cost benefit analysis uses money; decision analysis uses utility, or the measure of the probability of the consequence and the value attached to it.

The steps used this decision-making framework are: 1. identify risk problem - list alternative actions and all possible consequences associated with each action; 2. describe relationships among alternatives and their consequences; 3. evaluate in terms of a common unit - risk cost benefit analysis uses money, decision analysis uses utility; and 4. calculate risk/cost ratio or risk/utility ratio -integrate all components of the analysis to produce a single number for each alternative.

The alternative with the greatest risk/cost ratio should be chosen in this framework.

This risk decision-making framework is different from incorporation of risk and uncertainty in conventional cost benefit analyses, an economic decision-making framework discussed earlier. In conventional cost benefit analysis, sensitivity analysis (which tests one assumption at a time) or scenario planning (which tests sets of assumptions) is used to incorporate risks (New South Wales Treasury, 1997, p. 68). 2.2.4.7 Probabilistic Risk Analysis Another risk decision-making framework that has been applied to transport investment decisions is probabilistic risk analysis of transport project development costs (Abacus Technology Corporation, 1996). It has three stages: 1. identify project risk variables and assign "high", "low" and "most likely" values to these variables; 2. conduct a Monte Carlo simulation on the total project budget, including the risk variables that have been identified in stage 1 - total cost is a function of random variables, and each time a set of these variables is generated, a value for total cost is obtained; and 3. interpret the results of multiple simulations- a standard output is a cumulative probability function that displays the likelihood of achieving a desired target (for example, if 85% certainty is desired to achieve on-target completion for a construction project, the required contingency is the project value at the 85% cumulative distribution, less the total project cost without the contingency).

Probabilistic risk analysis has been applied to an airport runway extension and a light rail line in the USA (Abacus Technology Corporation, 1996). 2.2.4.8 Discussion of Risk Decision Frameworks It may be difficult in practice to develop a complete list of technical, economic and socio-political factors for risk ranking. Comparability of decisions over time may also

-27- be a problem. The decision-making environment is not static for risk assessment. Public perceptions of risk acceptability, scientific lmowledge about the significance of risks, knowledge of how risks can be reduced, legal requirements for dealing with risk, needs for particular activities, and acceptable working patterns all change with time (Chicken and Hayns, 1989). This means that similar projects evaluated at different times are not necessarily comparable. The risk ranking technique has no method for generating reasonable project alternatives. Project alternatives are not explicitly part of this decision-making framework.

As with any ranking technique, subjective judgment is used to assign relative risk weights to individual factors. Ranking qualitative criteria may be even more subjective than ranking quantitative criteria. The ranking technique appears relatively simple, which could be an advantage. But it should be remembered that most ranking techniques are based on a host of value assumptions. There is room for improvement in risk assessment (Shrader-Frechette, 1985, p. 12). It needs to avoid simplistic or reductionistic approaches to problems of safety and to address the complex epistemological, logical, and ethical problems raised by questions of evaluating risk. In addition, the risk ranking technique does not explicitly consider the time value of money, or the concept of timing in project risks.

Risk cost benefit analysis or decision analysis have similar problems to economic cost benefit analysis (e.g., which discount rate to use, effects of distributions among groups in society, shadow pricing). Preferences are not quantified by analysis of market data, but by the subjective judgment of the analyst. This is another potentially significant limitation of this decision-making framework.

It can be argued that risk type decision-making frameworks oversimplify risks and yet often model risk in artificial detail. It has been argued that formal methods cannot capture the nuances of risk evaluation situations (Shrader-Frechette, 1985). There are no clearly specifiable criteria for determining an acceptable risk, and the typical risk assessment problems often faced by individuals involve no calculation of probabilities and consequences. For individuals, risk decision-making is a complex practice. For transport projects, formal risk decision-making frameworks may assist in understanding how various aspects of project risks interact. Formal methods also tend to be easier to understand.

2.2.5 Planning Frameworks Planning decision-making frameworks take the linlc between land use and transport into account. This link is analysed through the connection of journeys to work with employment opportunities to create current and anticipated demand. Residents' accessibility to jobs or job opportunities are frequently encountered in planning studies and the decisions resulting from these studies; for example, airport ground access planning in multi airport regions.

Planning decision-making frameworks evolved as a systematic method for development of urban transport solutions in the 1960s (Banister, 1994, p. 21). In Australian practice, future transport infrastructure projects will be affected by:

-28- • the recognised need for the integration of transport/land use planning (Industry Commission, 1994; NSW Government, 1993), which is hoped to achieve more effective transport links; • a more pragmatic approach to infrastructure investment, such as private sector participation in the provision of rail transport infrastructure (Parliament of NSW, 1993; New South Wales Government, 2000; Department of Treasury and Finance, 2001 ), which, it is hoped, will return more mobility for each dollar spent; and • competition policy (Hilmer, 1993), which strives to deliver more innovative and cost effective transport solutions.

For rail, the current issues of planning decision-making frameworks are the further fragmentation of the rail network into multiple organisations in 1997, encouragement of non public-sector rail transport providers, and charging fees for access to the rail system.

Planning decision-making frameworks also encompass social goals, primarily through community consultation and policy development, with the aim of improving community well being. 2.2.5.1 Model of Planning Process A "rational" planning process (Lich:field, et al, 1975, pp. 19-20) can be summarised as: 1. preliminary recognition and definition of problems; 2. decision to act and definition of the planning task; 3. data collection, analysis, and forecasting; 4. determination of constraints and objectives; 5. formulation of operational criteria for design; 6. plan design; 7. testing of alternative plans; 8. plan evaluation; 9. decision taking; 10. plan implementation; and 11. review of planned developments through time.

Planning decision-making frameworks include: • financial investment appraisal; • check list of criteria; • assessment of resource costs (as inputs into the decision); • social cost benefit analysis; • planning balance sheet analysis; • optimisation techniques;

-29- • "satisficing"; and • multi-criteria analyses. 2.2.5.2 Financial Investment Appraisal Financial implications are explored in this planning decision framework (Pratley, 1999; Finnerty, 1996; Sides, 1991). Estimates of future streams of capital and operating costs and revenues for project are made. Costs and revenues are restricted to items for which there is a market, and their values recorded at market prices.

Financial investment appraisal is based on the cost benefit model discussed in economic decision-making frameworks, and the weaknesses of cost benefit analysis also apply here. An additional weakness is that recording costs and revenue at market prices is not always a valid indication of their worth to society. 2.2.5.3 Check List of Criteria Another planning decision-making framework is a check list approach. In it, an ordinal ranking of alternatives is made according to specific criteria (Lichfield, et al, 1975, p. 50). This framework does not include how one might generate alternatives or assessment criteria. 2.2.5.4 Assessment of Resource Costs Resource costs can be assessed either according to their costs in use, or via threshold analysis (Lichfield, et al, 1975, p. 57). Costs in use involve estimating both private and public capital and operating costs involved in urban developments. These costs may be expressed as average per capita costs for various phases of projects or plans. Valuation of public costs could be a problem here.

Resource costs can be assessed using threshold analysis. This technique is concerned with the physical characteristics of an area that would cause significant fluctuations in the unit cost of future urban development (Kozlowski, 1986, p. 3), and result from land characteristics, new services, and the form and scale of development. Only costs that vary with location are dealt with. Threshold analysis is useful for an initial narrowing down of the range of possibilities. 2.2.5.5 Social Cost Benefit Analysis Social cost benefit analysis2 is a planning decision-making framework that appraises the social worth of public sector projects. Problems with social cost benefit analysis for the public sector (Massam, 1980, p. 80) include defining who is affected and dealing with variations over space and among individuals, groups, and institutions. There is also a problem of assigning meaningful numbers to costs and benefits, especially when trying to accommodate the variations among individuals, groups and institutions as well as varying opinions and preferences.

For example, social rates of return can be calculated to take explicit account of the impact of a project on the distribution of income between (1) investment and consumption, and (2) between different income levels via socio-economic weights (Squire and van der Talc, 1975). However, the absolute desirability of a project is not

2 Environmental cost benefit analysis is discussed in section 2.2.3 .1.

- 30- assessed in this framework. Because of this, social cost benefit analysis may be better for ranking projects that achieve the same end. 2.2.5.6 Planning Balance Sheet Analysis Planning balance sheet analysis (Lichfield, et al, 1975) is an adaptation of the general approach of social cost benefit analysis. It is designed for use in planning evaluations. While social cost benefit analysis is generally used for one sector - such as water resources or highways - planning decisions often involve concurrent investment in a range of different sectors or activities. In addition, social cost benefit analysis is concerned with overall equity, not equity among specific groups of stakeholders.

Both economic cost benefit analysis and the planning balance sheet decision-making frameworks focus on different groups of project stakeholders. However, cost benefit analysis uses an aggregation of individual preferences. Specific objectives are not explicitly weighted in cost benefit analysis. It is assumed that weights are implicit in monetary factors used.

A planning balance sheet is produced by first generating a list of "producers/operators" (that is, groups who have role in establishing and running various projects). These are listed vertically in the balance sheet. Next, each producer/operator is paired with appropriate groups who will be consuming the goods or services generated by the projects. Each pair in the planning balance sheet is called a "transaction". The objective of this method is a "comprehensive set of social accOtmts". 2.2.5.7 Optimisation Techniques Optimisation techniques use linear and non-linear programming to define an optimal solution. In a planning decision-making framework using optimisation, a community welfare function is to be maximised according to the value of the decision variables at hand.

This approach assumes that different objectives can be expressed in a cmmnon denominator by means of trade offs (or marginal rates of substitution along indifference curves). In this way, the loss in one objective can be evaluated against the gain in the other. The idea of compensating changes is assumed in both classical economic utility theory and traditional cost-benefit analysis (van Delft and Nijkamp, 1977, p. 7).

A problem with optimisation is the specification of preference criteria. It is difficult to find criteria with wide enough scope. "In our view it is not possible to know how decision-takers will weigh up the various advantages and disadvantages of plans, nor in what way the influence of the various interested parties will be felt. Furthermore, even if we could elicit the views of decision-takers, there are those of other groups in society to be considered" (Lichfield, et al, 1975, p. 62).

There are other problems with optimisation in a decision-making framework:

"From a theoretical point of view the optimising principle is very elegant, since it provides an unambiguous tool to evaluate alternative strategies on the basis of their contribution to community welfare. As a practical tool in the planning process, the value of the traditional

- 31 - optimising approach is, however, rather limited, because the specification of community welfare function presupposes complete information about all possible combinations of actions, about the relative trade-offs between actions and about all constraints prevailing in the decision-making process" (van Delft and Nijkamp, 1977, p. 8). 2.2.5.8 "Satisficing" The concept of "satisficing" comes from the behavioural sciences. It implies that a specific alternative can be considered "reasonable" if it complies with the whole set of criteria that describes minimally acceptable alternatives (van Delft and Nijkamp, 1977, p. 8). This method may be useful when it is not cost effective to fully explore project alternatives, although it should be noted that an optimal solution is unlikely using this method. 2.2.5.9 Multi-Criteria Evaluation Methods Multi-criteria evaluation methods are ranking methods, based on the concept of decisions being multi-dimensional (Nijkamp, et al, 1990). In practice, they are "systematic tools for evaluating the relative importance of distinct alternative plans" (van Delft and Nijkamp, 1977, p. 18). In multi-criteria evaluation, it is possible to identify alternatives that are closest to (a pre-defined) ideal solution using a "distance metric" Lj.

fi* -li,J

.f. Jl~"·* - Jl,W where: Lj is the distance metric; fi* is the optimal value of the th criteria; fi w is the worst value of the i 111 criteria; ' fi,J is the value ofthe i 111 criteria for alternative j; Wi are weights indicating decision maker preferences; pis a parameter (1::;;p::;; (infinity)); i indicates the number of criteria i = 1, 2, 3 ... n; j indicates the number of alternatives j = 1, 2, 3 ... m.

Outcomes from multi-criteria methods do not have to be expressed in monetary terms. (An alternative would be a system of weights.) They include externalities and intangibles. Increasingly, multi-criteria methods are being used as a complement to cost benefit analysis (Nash, 1997; Leleur, 1996), and applications in transport decision making are evolving. In the UK, changing requirements in transport evaluation (Jones, 1998) have been brought about by more active private sector involvement, changing policy objectives, and changing circumstances. As a result, traditional cost-benefit analysis is being adapted to some form ofmulti-criteriamethod. In the UK, criteria to be used for transport appraisal now include integration, safety, economy, environment and

- 32- accessibility (Glaister, 1999). The trend for more widespread use of multi-criteria analysis is occurring throughout the European Union (Bristow and Nelthorp, 2000).

Performance measures (or criteria) for transport decisions would vary in practice (Austroads, 1998). Kahn, et a! (1999) present a methodology that uses performance measures common to various transportation modes to perform simplified corridor and/or project analyses. The choice of performance measures can be undertaken in ad hoc or more formalised ways - Hsu (1999) uses a "generalised means function to develop fuzzy options" of the expert group using a more formal Delphi technique. 2.2.5.9.1 Trade-OffAnalysis Trade off analysis is a method to compare project alternatives according to pre-specified goals (van Delft and Nijkamp, 1977, p. 19). It uses an unambiguous criterion (such as money or time) to compare probable gains against probable losses. The problem of how to translate trade-offs between alternative outcomes into opportunity costs is not solved in a satisfactory way in trade-off analysis. 2.2.5.9.2 Goals Achievement Analysis Goals achievement analysis (Hill, 1968) was developed in the USA for use in transport engineering and land use-transport studies. It differs from a check list approach in that checklist applications do not give much attention to quantifying the extent of fulfilling the criteria and their relative importance.

Some of the characteristics of goals achievement analysis are: 1. goals are defined before alternative plans formulated; 2. objectives are multi-dimensional; that is, they take in aesthetic, environmental, political, economic objectives; 3. this decision-making framework is designed to compare mutually exclusive plans only; and 4. weights are assigned to objectives before plans are assessed.

In goals achievement analysis, various objectives are treated explicitly. The extent to which objectives are achieved is quantitatively measured. Each objective, or decision criterion, for a certain project is given an index according to its relative importance. An index of achievement is then calculated for the outcome of each alternative project. These indices are compared, and the "best" project is chosen.

The aggregation procedure for goals achievement analysis is a potential problem. This is especially true when the various goals have different weights. It has been suggested (Hill, 1968) that this method is more suitable in providing decision-makers with all relevant information than actually providing an assessment of project alternatives.

In about 1978, goals achievement analysis was combined with cost benefit analysis (an economic decision-making framework) to evaluate highway transport schemes in the West Midlands ofEngland (Roe, 1987, pp. 27-31), but a number ofinadequacies were identified, including:

- 33- • the treatment of scoring and valuing highway condition - the values assigned to performance criteria were sometimes assigned "with minimum recourse to quantified data or evidence of community or individual values" (Roe, 1987, p. 31 ), and use of a variety of scales (interval, ratio and so on) with no consideration of the limitations this imposed on their interpretation or aggregation; and • the underlying assumption that all schemes evaluated were optimal solutions to "real priority problems ofthe highway network" Roe, 1987, p. 31), where some were more the result of political and public pressure, discussion and officer influence. 2.2.5.9.3 Expected Value Method A set of weights is assigned to the outcomes of a certain project under the expected value method. The weights are considered to be "semi-probabilities" and are used to directly compute the expected value of project outcomes (van Delft and Nijkamp, 1977, p. 20). The expected value framework does not allow for relative discrepancies and relative priority differences among alternatives. While fairly easy to compute and understand, expected values may not use the information about alternatives most effectively. 2.2.5.9.4 Correspondence Analysis Correspondence analysis (van Delft and Nijkamp, 1977, p. 20) is a method that uses pattern recognition to compare alternatives with different characteristics. A project impact matrix is prepared for each alternative. Principal component analysis (van Delft and Nijkamp, 1977, p. 20) is then used to examine the relationships between specific decision criteria and project alternatives. Inferences are made about the desirability of project alternatives from this analysis.

Assumptions about project desirability are primarily based on the statistical pattern of project impacts. The relative weights of the decision criteria have less impact on the outcome of correspondence analysis. Correspondence analysis may be more suitable for reducing the amount of decision information than as an assessment method. 2.2.5.9.5 Permutation Method The permutation method is based on successive rank orders of alternative plans. The idea is to develop a procedure that successively examines how dominant each project alternative is in relation to the others. The procedure works through permutations of successive decision criteria (van Delft and Nijkamp, 1977, p. 20). The conditions under which the most probable ranking of projects, not the "best" project, take place can be derived.

The permutation method can be used for ordinal and cardinal data. It gives insight into the robustness of a certain solution. However, when there is a less evident dominant alternative, the weightings may become difficult to assign. When a permutation method is only based on ordinal data, statements about the relative values of weights are less easy to interpret (van Delft and Nijkamp, 1977, p. 21). 2. 2. 5. 9. 6 Discrepancy Analysis For discrepancy analysis, an optimum (or "satisficing") project is defined first. The analysis then tries to measure the relative weighted difference between each successive

-34- project and the optimum project. Statistical teclmiques are used to rank alternative projects according to their relative discrepancy to the optimum project (van Delft and Nijkamp, 1977, p. 21). Discrepancy analysis does compare alternative plans, but the analysis does not discriminate between significant differences in project outcomes and weights. 2.2.5.9. 7 Concordance Analysis Concordance analysis involves a pairwise comparison of alternatives. It is based on the degree to which project outcomes and preference weights agree with pairwise dominance relationships between alternative projects (van Delft and Nijkamp, 1977, p. 21). Because it examines both the degree to which the preference weights are in agreement with pairwise dominance relationships and the degree at which weighted project outcomes differ from each other, van Delft and Nijkamp believe it is a "worthwhile" approach. They believe that the available information is used as intensively as possible. 2.2.5.10 Critique of Multi-Criteria Methods The problem with multi-criteria evaluation methods is that the weights of desired objectives are assigned subjectively. No amount of mathematical rigour after these weights are assigned will alter these initial assumptions. However, it is possible to conduct social surveys of decision-makers (and others) to check internal consistency of a range of values. One example is the weights attached by politicians, bureaucrats and community leaders to social, economic and environmental aspects of rural road investments (Black and Widiantro, 1998).

Another limitation of multi-criteria methods is that they cannot show that an alternative adds more to welfare than it detracts (Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions, 2001). In fact, the preferred alternative from multi-criteria methods can be inconsistent with improving welfare and doing nothing could be preferable.

If multi-criteria evaluation includes varying treatment of time-related criteria (Bureau of Transport Economics, 1999b, chapter 12), it becomes more complex. Conceptually, a criterion that is time-related (such as environmental impacts over a number of years) could have different weights for different years - if the evaluation period were 20 years, then 20 different weights could be used. This obviously adds to the amount of calculations and possibly the complexity of the evaluation itself.

These decision frameworks are best used when the competing goals and objectives are many and intertwined, because in these cases the use of intuitive judgment in complex decisions may not yield the best answers. Multi-criteria methods are a tool to explore project alternatives without relying solely on intuitive choices. 2.2.5.11 Use of Planning Decision-Making Frameworks in Transport The literature contains numerous examples of how planning decision-making frameworks are applied to the appraisal of transport projects, but two only are presented here: priority ranking methods in the UK (Roe, 1987; Wallis, 1978), and the cost effectiveness technique (Stopher and Meyburg, 1976).

- 35- Establishing a transport investment program involves some method of evaluating project alternatives. Here, the decision-making frameworks that have evolved in Britain have done so primarily as a response to public pressure and are "points based approaches". More recently, the UK Transport White Paper, "A New Deal for Transport" (Department of the Environmental, Transport and the Regions, 1998) included a framework that identifies the weighting attached to government policy objectives (environment, accessibility, economic development, safety and integration). Prior to that, an annual Transport Policies and Program (TPP) has been required of county councils in England and Wales since 1974 (Roe, 1987). The TPP outlines the authority's proposed transport investment and policies for fifteen years, with the first five years being discussed in detail.

The main problem with the British ranking approaches is that identifying deficiencies in the existing transport network does not automatically generate project alternatives (Roe, 1987, p. 12). There is also no open recognition of the implicit values in aggregations of criteria. The assumptions made in selecting and valuing these criteria are also not expressed.

However, ranking techniques are more consistent than traditional cost benefit analysis. They help to structure consideration of proposals and ensure treatment of some relevant issues. These issues include items traditionally excluded from cost benefit decision framework. Political weights are used to represent priorities (Roe, 1987, p. 13).

The main advantage of priority ranking methods is its ability to reduce a large number of potential schemes into a more manageable number (Roe, 1987, p, 27). The large number of highway schemes, which were inherited in 1974, was reduced to a more manageable number with relatively little data. 2.2.5.12 Relative Preferences The relative preferences priority ranking method asks respondents to rank simultaneously a number of different tangibles and intangibles under the constraint of limited resources. This technique offers the advantage of being able to consider a large range of conditions at the same time. Over 1,000 conditions can be considered at once in a typical case. It also forces the respondent to consider what is given up as well as what is gained (Wallis, 1978, p. 630). 2.2.5.12.1 Goals Achievement Matrix A goals achievement analysis, has been developed for use in the West Midlands of Britain (Roe, 1987). This application assigned priority ranking by: 1. an initial allocation of resources; 2. transport scheme identification and assessment of needs; 3. a "coarse sieve", which is concerned with the questions: Does the scheme comply with local plans or approved development plans? Given the necessary finance, can the scheme be implemented? Is it the best solution to an agreed problem? Have all relevant economic, environmental and social factors been considered? Is the effect of not implementing the scheme substantial?

- 36- 4. a "fine sieve", consisting of three stages: (i) operational objectives and performance measures are specified m consultation with County Council members (ii) objectives are weighted according to priority (iii) schemes are ranked within each performance criteria on a cardinal scale; scores for each criterion are added together to produce a total score; 1. scheme objectives are identified and weights assigned to these objectives; 2. performance criteria and weights are developed for project objectives; and 3. utility curves developed (note that utility curves were never fully developed for this application).

The focus here was on societal goals. The goals achievement matrices for each alternative transport scheme use societal values to weight various goals and criteria. Weighting methods can introduce bias into the decision-making process. A subjective ranking scheme can obscure information and many subjective choices are left to the analyst (Stopher and Meyburg, 1976, p. 141). If these weights correlate with political acceptability, the bias may not necessarily be a negative influence. However, there is no real way to check whether weightings are valid without resorting to extensive social surveys.

A variation is the scheme assessment balance sheet decision-making framework, which combines the goals achievement matrix with cost benefit analysis and planning balance sheet analysis (Roe, 1987, p. 27). It has been suggested that the main characteristics of a successful transport decision-making framework are ease of use and political acceptability (Roe, 1987, p. 12). Identifying problems, handling dissimilar transport investment priorities and establishing priorities for investment are secondary goals.

Priority ranking decision frameworks can be, and have been, used for transport investment evaluation. Given the number of projects and varying groups of stakeholders, the priority ranking process can become rather complex in practice. The experience in priority ranking methods in Britain was that there has been "minimum recourse to quantified data or evidence of community or individual values" (Roe, 1987, p. 31 ). This may represent an attempt to streamline the process.

Priority ranking assumes that all schemes considered are optimal solutions to real priority problems of the transport network. The actual process of scheme generation in practice can be "characterised by political and public pressure, discussion and officer 'expertise' " (Roe, 1987, p. 31). Some problems may be missed, or inappropriate alternatives can be selected from the incomplete pool of identified problems.

The interrelationships of transport and land use problems have not been adequately addressed by priority rankings for transport investment.

"The evaluation process of priority ranking easily led to partial or even inappropriate solutions to ill-defined problems. Priority ranking could not compare proposals from different sectors of transport expenditure (e.g. highways, public transport, maintenance, etc.). Each was

- 37- considered separately after budget allocation and without recourse to information upon problem condition within other sectors or the priorities for expenditure is implied. This may result in the inequitable distribution of resources between sectors, whilst the comparative merits of investing in one sector rather than another were unknown" (Roe, 1987, p. 36).

These problems may not be so much inherent in the theoretical decision framework as the practical application of it. 2.2.5.12.2 Cost Effectiveness Technique For transport planners, problems are not simple and many consequences may be unquantifiable. One decision-making framework that can be used is the cost effectiveness technique. "Effectiveness" here means "the characterisation of all the relevant consequences of the alternatives exclusive of costs" (Stopher and Meyburg, 197 6, p. 141 ). The achievement of cost effectiveness goals for each transport alternative may be described mathematically, verbally or pictorially. What this decision framework requires is a description of the consequences of any alternative. The ways in which these consequences are to be described are not restricted. There is no attempt to oversimplify the evaluation process.

In practice, one of the problems with determining which project consequences to consider is that it may be difficult to determine where to stop examination of project consequences. This could also be used as a rationalisation for not considering unquantifiable information in project decisions. Another potential problem with the cost effectiveness method is that it is only as good as the goal formulation that precedes it (Stopher and Meyberg, 1975, p. 145). The cost effectiveness procedure could be supplemented with the economic net present value methods, although this could make decision-makers put more weight on those portions presented as net present values.

2.2.6 Summary Although the distinctions between the frameworks described above are not always clear cut in practice, they provide the opportunity to isolate particular aspects of transport project decision-making. Table 2.4 summarises the decision-making frameworks identified. For each framework, its principal focus, specific examples of its use, its weaknesses, as well as its connection with rail transport decision-maldng practice are provided.

None of the frameworks identified are free from inherent weaknesses, making it possible that no one framework will explicitly consider all aspects of a transport infrastructure investment decision. Further, more recent emphasis on integrated transport planning and sustainability issues has been exemplified by a trend for convergence between decision-making frameworks.

- 38- Table 2.4 Existing Decision-Making Frameworks for Rail Transport Projects Decision- Focus Examples Weaknesses Rail transport making practice framework Technological Physical Engineering judgment - Scarcity of resources not Began with solutions Technical adequacy explicitly considered introduction of assessment - Incomplete consideration of rail in 1850s non-physical aspects of project decision Economic Collective Cost benefit analysis - Does not consider equity Traditional wealth (CBA) among groups CBAmost maximisation Variations- -Not always clear which pervasive in environmental CBA, discount rate should be used current inclusion of -Valuation of intangibles is decision- utilities/risks problematic making practice - Technology is exogenous Risk Risk Risk management - Development of a complete Began in early minimisation/ Risk ranking technique list of risks can be difficult in 1990s mitigation Risk cost benefit practice analysis - Perceptions of risk change Probabilistic risk overtime analysis -No explicit consideration of project alternatives - Ranking weights assigned subjectively Planning Land use, social Financial investment -Valuation of costs and Began 1960s goals appraisal (partially) benefits at market prices do not always reflect their value Limited use in to society rail transport Check list of criteria -Project alternatives and evaluation in assessment criteria are not practice in formally included Australia Assessment of resource - Valuation of costs could be a costs problem Social CBA - Does not include absolute desirability of a project Planning balance sheet - Identification of all analysis "transactions" may be difficult

Optimisation - Problems with specification of individual preference criteria "Satisficing" - Optimal solution unlikely Multi-criteria methods * -Weights of objectives are assigned subjectively - Can be complex in practice -Assumes all solutions are optimal solutions

Cost effectiveness -Number of alternatives to techniques consider not clear * These methods include trade off analysis, goals achievement matrix, expected value method, correspondence analysis, permutation method, discrepancy analysis and concordance analysis.

2.2.6.1 Technological Decision-Making With its focus on physical solutions, technological decision-making is the earliest framework to be applied in rail transport practice. Its main weaknesses concern

- 39- assessment of relative project desirability and use of scarce resources. The use of engineering judgement includes consideration of social impacts by way of consultation with others. However, implicit in this technological decision-making framework is the assumption that technical professionals are the best placed to make decisions about the relative merits of transport projects.

Technical adequacy assessment, while useful as an indicator of where problem areas in the transport network may exist, does not provide a reliable indication of the relative desirability of competing projects. It can have a complementary role to cost benefit analysis (BTE, 1999, chapter 1) by providing an indication of where serious technical inadequacy exists and identifying a potential area for investment in transport infrastructure.

2.2.6.2 Economic Decision-Making Economic decision-making focuses on maximisation of collective benefits through efficient use of scarce resources. It is the most pervasive framework used in Australian transport infrastructure decisions. Economic decision-making does have drawbacks, the main one being its bias towards costs and benefits that can be easily valued. This can be a particular problem in public investment decisions. Another potential drawback is the exclusion of the external effects on third parties, such as environmental effects. Other weaknesses include the following: • Distributional effects and the impacts on the well being of individuals are not explicitly considered. For example, aggregate travel time savings are often included in transport investment appraisal, but the benefits from travel times becoming more predictable are rarely measured and can be quite significant (BTE, 1999, chapter 6). • The appropriate discount rate to use is an issue because it has the potential to change the relative order of preferences between projects. In practice, specific discount rates are required in economic appraisals (NSW Treasury, 1997, p. 52). • Traditional public sector cost benefit analysis ignores the volatility of cost and benefit streams over time, which can be a problem if the incidence of risk is not widely spread (NSW Treasury, 1997, p. 62). • Shadow prices, potentially used where market prices are unavailable, have limited use in economic decision-making practice (NSW Treasury, 1997, p. 47).

2.2.6.3 Risk Decision-Making The focus of risk decision-making frameworks is the mitigation or minimisation of identified risks. In projects with a value of $5 million or more, a risk assessment is required in NSW (New South Wales Public Works Department, 1993). There are some practical difficulties associated with this framework: • It may be difficult in practice to develop a complete list of technical, economic and socio-political factors for risk ranking. • Comparability of decisions over time may also be a problem, because the decision-making environment is not static for risk assessment.

-40- • Subjective judgment is used to assign relative risk weights to individual factors. Ranking qualitative criteria may be even more subjective than ranking quantitative criteria. • It can also be argued that risk type decision-making frameworks oversimplify risks and yet often model risk in artificial detail.

2.2.6.4 Planning Decision-Making Planning decision-making frameworks reflect the trend of convergence in transport decision-making practice. These frameworks can overlap or complement current economic decision-making frameworks, and could provide additional richness and detail to them by specific consideration of some social groups/stakeholders and socio economic objectives. However, there are complexities inherent in the values and objectives related to land use and social goals - and these are reflected in criticisms concerning the ability of planning decision-making frameworks to assess a complete set of optimal alternatives in an objective manner. Their use in rail transport decision making in practice is somewhat limited.

2.3 Current Models of Ground Access Transport models underpin the decision-malcing frameworks identified from the literature, and are used to simulate contemplated changes brought about by additional infrastructure investment. The literature shows that demand for transport, such as that from the city the to airport, can be modelled in several ways. Applicable transport models for this purpose can be grouped under the following broad types (Bureau of Transport Economics, 1998): • conventional four-step transport models; • behavioural demand models; • linked transport/land-use models; and • integrated transport/land-use models.

2.3.1 Four-step Transport Models Four-step transport models have been used urban land use and transport studies in the USA since the 1950s. These earlier conventional models are covered in, for example, Stopher and Meyburg (1975), Hutchinson (1974), Bruton (1975), Jones (1977), Black (1981) and Otuzar and Willumsen (1994). They reflect the view of transport planning as a technical study based on rational principles (Banister, 1994; Healey, 1977). The components of this type of urban multi-modal demand model are trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, and route assignment by mode. Population, employment, land use and other data (car ownership, income, density) are exogenous inputs into these large-scale models. The level of decision-making in conventional four-step models is the transport system as a whole, malcing them suitable for large-scale, long-range transpmt planning (Fischer, 1993, p. 11).

- 41 - 2.3.2 Behavioural Demand Models Behavioural demand models focus on the choices of individual travellers (Bureau Transport Economics, 1998, p. 19) and net zonal aggregates, as with the four-step models, through the use of observed travel choices (revealed preferences) and/or stated preferences for new travel options (Jones, 1982; Ben-Akiva, 1973; McFadden, 1973; Domencich and McFadden, 1978; Otuzar, 2000). 2.3.2.1 Microeconomic Models Microeconomic models are based on the aggregation of individual choices. Random preference (utility) maximisation is used to model travel decision-making processes. Utility maximisation assumes that the distribution of demand in the population is the result of individual preferences or utility maximisation. Utilities are treated as random variables, recognising the lack of information about the characteristics of alternatives and decision makers (Fischer, 1993, p. 12). There has been much research and experience with random utility travel choice models in the 1970s and 1980s (for example, Domencich and McFadden, 1975; Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985). Microeconomic models focus on discrete trips of individual travel decision makers, and are suitable for shorter time frame, low capital cost planning or in the modal split stage of four-step transport models (Fischer, 1993). 2.3.2.2 Activity Based Models Activity based models are more complex. These models, developed initially at Oxford University's Transport Studies Unit in the 1970s (Jones, 1982; Jones, et al, 1983; Carpenter and Jones, 1983), were the result of perceived weaknesses of four-step transport planning models. Among these reasons are that four-step models segregate the decision of whether to make a journey and its destination from mode choice, which is counter-intuitive.

Behavioural models attempt to explain why individual travel choices are made. Rather than isolating travel from other daily activities, it is seen as one component of a continuous sequence of events in space and time (Jones, 1982). From detailed household activity diaries, activity scheduling is modelled, based on combinatorial programming or computer simulation (Fischer, 1993, p. 26). These are relatively new models, emerging in the 1980s.

Decision-making in activity based models focuses on activities, household relationships and interactions, and are suitable for qualitative descriptions of transport patterns, linkages, trip timings and constraints (Fischer, 1993, p. 25).

2.3.3 Linked Transport/Land-Use Models This type of model links land-use models with conventional four-step transpmt models (Bureau of Transport Economics, 1998, p. 31). Typically, outputs from land-use modelling are used as inputs in transport modelling, such as land-use models derived from Lowry's model of land use, Lowry, 1964; that provided the foundation of techniques to which integrate transport and land-use models (Hutchinson, 1974, pp. 149-175; Batty, 1975).

-42- Linked transport/land-use models incorporate feedback via generalised costs (instantaneous feedback to the trip distribution stage in the four-step transport portion of the model) and accessibility (lagged feedback to employment and residential choices over time in the land-use portion of the model). Such a modelling framework appears to · have been re-invented recently (Zhao and Kockelman, 2002).

2.3.4 Integrated Transport/Land-Use Models Models that fall into this type use a variety of theories and modelling techniques (Bureau of Transport Economics, 1998, p. 35). Generally speaking, these models increasingly recognise the complex interactions between transport and land-use systems. Unlike linked transport/land-use models, they do not incorporate a conventional four step model of the transport network. In these models, transport and land-use systems are integrated through feedback: • from the land-use system to the transport system - via estimates of the location and volume oftravel generators; and • from the transport system to the land-use system- via accessibility (usually this is with a time lag).

A summary comparison of the types of transport planning models is shown in Table 2.5.

2.4 Analysis of Current Model Types Difficulties have been recognised with these transport model types. One criticism of the earlier four-step transport models was that they did not include a behavioural rationale. According to one source:

11 The very nature of urban transportation planning models makes them largely ineffective in appraising the effects of changes in either the highway or the transit system on the volume of travel in the system or its distribution between modes and destinations.

11 There is a need to develop models of urban travel demand which can satisfy the end objectives of transportation planning: (1) The 'fine tuning' of existing public transit and transit-related tax policy by adjusting fares, headways, feeder services, tolls, etc. within given budget constraints to maximise social benefit. (2) The estimation of benefits for alternative designs of new transit systems. (3) Simulation of the urban economy and projection of long term transport needs" (Domencich and McFadden, 1975, p. 3).

-43- Table 2.5 Comparison of Transport Planning Model Types Found in the Literature

Conventional four-step Behavioural demand Linked Integrated transport/land-use transport/land-use • closed system • based on utility • incorporate transport • incorporate transport (no interaction with maximisation and costs into location costs into location land-use system) consumer choice decisions of decisions of households households • unidirectional • disaggregate • no direct link (no allowance for (unit of observation between travel feedback from travel is individual demand and costs to trip traveller) transport costs generation) • used since 1950s • used since 1960s • used since 1970s • used since 1980s (Source: Bureau of Transport Economics, 1998)

More recent four-step transport models use disaggregated logit-type routines in the modal split stage, including individual behaviour and blurring the distinction between the four-step and microeconomic models (Fischer, 1993).

Microeconornic models are increasingly used in analysis of travel demand because of their relative flexibility when compared to four-step transport models. However, most microeconomic models treat trips as discrete units for analysis and ignore the connections between activities and travel. In addition, microeconornic models usually assume that choice sets are homogenous. Little work has been done to recognise systematic differences in the choice sets of individuals, although there have been attempts to improve predictions of aggregate travel demand based on disaggregated behavioural relationships (Oppenheim, 1995). In practice, these model links will balance prediction of exogenous variables, computational effort and the magnitude of aggregation errors (Bureau of Transport Economics, 1998, p. 29).

Initial steps have been taken in development of activity-based models, which relate activities and travel. Because of their relative newness, these models need to be refined to develop a more comprehensive theoretical framework and more adequate analytical techniques (Fischer, 1993). Concepts from psychology, sociology, geography, and economics should be integrated in this comprehensive framework, according to Fischer; more work is also needed on how travel patterns change over time.

Transport/land-use models also have limitations. A major weakness with linked transport/land-use models is that travel demand in the trip generation stage is treated as inelastic (Bureau of Transport Economics, 1998, p. 33). While journey to work trips may be insensitive to costs, it is likely that leisure trips will be sensitive to travel costs.

Current weaknesses of integrated transport/land-use models include urban trips being modelled as independent events- not as "multi-purpose, multi-stop daily travel chains" (Bureau of Transport Economics, 1998, p. 46). Other limitations include relative neglect

-44- of off-peak travel, treatment of decisions about travel as independent of other spending decisions, and "relatively primitive" treatment of urban dynamics (ibid, p. 47).

All current model types are mainly descriptive, although the evolution of model types mirrors the development in thinking about the relationships between transport and land use. The development of the concept of "transport integration" is reflected in this history. According to Potter and Skinner (2000, p. 275), there is no widely accepted definition of integrated transport. They have offered a typology for integrated transport that has four increasingly wide levels, each level subsuming the levels preceding it: • functional or modal integration; • transport and planning integration; • social integration; and • environmental, economic and transport policy integration.

2.4.1 Use of Model Outputs in Project Appraisals Outputs from the transport planning models are used in project appraisals. Before discussing how this occurs, a distinction should be made between project appraisals and project assessment (or evaluation). Project appraisal is the consideration ofthe technical aspects of a proposed project, which includes cost-benefit analysis. Evaluation, on the other hand, is concerned with assigning relative importance, or weights, to the various factors involved in making a decision (Westerman and Black, 1993, p. 75).

Traditional cost-benefit analysis derives specific values for capital and operating costs and benefits, recognising their timing and the cost of capital to the decision-maldng organisation. For transport projects, the decision-making organisation is the transport provider. In practice, conventional cost-benefit analysis for transport projects includes not only the transport provider's cash flows for constmction, maintenance and operation of the project. It also includes certain transport system user costs and benefits, such as travel time savings to target users, and savings in private vehicle operating costs (NSW Roads and Traffic Authority, 1999; Hutabarat, 1995). The parameters for analysis are expanded to include the effects on transport providers and some, but not necessarily all, of the effects on transport users.

Regardless of the specific costs and benefits considered, expected physical effects (traffic flows, travel times) are translated into costs or benefits (vehicle operating costs, travel time costs, accident costs). Transport planning models provide input into the project appraisal process by providing information on how a transport system might behave under certain assumptions. All effects can be illustrated using the fundamental analysis referred to in the introduction. However, environmental effects and sustainable transport provision are not directly included in current transport model stmctures. This is despite the growing literature on environmental or ecological economics (for example, Pearce, 1998; Acutt and Mason, 1998; Kirkpatrick and Lee, 1997), and the concept of sustainability as it relates to transport, land use, the environment and renewable energy (Newman, 2001).

-45- 2.4.2 Incorporating Broader Transport Objectives The critical issue for cost-benefit analysis of transport projects is the inclusiveness of its parameters. Healey (1977, p. 210) suggests "social impact analysis" as a schema to incorporate impacts on existing and generated "non market" traffic (or system users on alternative routes), benefits to non-users of the transport system, as well as environmental benefits and costs. Underlying the social impact analysis approach is the view that all people need some level of access to transport facilities (Johnston, 1998).

Incorporation of broader social and environmental goals in a transport model requires more information. These goals stem from community concerns about environmental effects, the exclusion of certain costs and benefits from systematic decisions about mobility, as well as questions about who should benefit from transport provision, and the spatial and temporal distribution of the costs of such distribution. 2.4.2.1 ESD Principles Hutabarat (1995, p. 73) cites specific costs and benefits to transport users and society, not included in conventional analysis, which would encourage ecologically sustainable development (ESD). Additional information would be needed to incorporate these principles into a transport model, because individual choice sets are unlikely to include the ESD principles of the Commonwealth of Australia (1991): • improvement of material and non material well being; • advancement of intergenerational equity; • advancement of intragenerational equity; • maintenance of ecological systems and the conservation of biodiversity; • accounting of global ramifications, including international spill overs, international trade and international cooperation; and • caution in dealing with risk, uncertainty and irreversibility.

The principles above have been condensed into four (precautionary, inter-generational equity, biodiversity and valuation) principles and put into law in the Protection of the Environment Administration Act 1991 and Schedule 2 of the Environmental Planning and Assessment Regulations 1994.

Individual choices are made on the preferences and effects to the individual, or at the widest, the individual's relatively small circle of significant others. For example, individual choices are bounded by considerations of "improvement of material and non material well being" as it pertains to the individual, but not globally. There is a difference between an individual's behavioural cost (the cost function which best explains individual travel behaviour) and resource costs (a cost function which represents consumption of resources) (Mcintosh and Quarmby, 1970; Goodwin, 1978). 2.4.2.2 Externalities Individuals do not appear to consider certain costs or benefits (or what economists call externalities) in making rational mobility decisions. Rothengatter (1993) has separated transport externalities into three "levels of interaction". Interactions occur between the transport sector and:

-46- • non renewable resources (including environmental and human non producible capital); • itself (interactions within the transport system); and • public and private production and consumption.

These interactions are presented in Table 2.6. Table 2.6 Levels of Transport Interaction and Their External Effects level interaction externality description

1 between transport sector and environmental resources used without compensation to stock of non renewable resources produce transport

2 within transport sector additional user entering transport system causes sub optimal user patterns for existing users of network

3 between transport sector and

(i) public production and (i) transport networks provide base for consumption communication and accessibility (public goods)

(ii) private production and (ii) consumption • private users of transport get extra benefits if full costs of infrastructure and operation not charged; incur extra losses if taxes and user charges higher than costs • may induce new forms of operations and distribution logistics and contribute to technical progress • may contribute to development of new markets

(Source: Rothengatter, 1993, page 91)

Inclusion of external costs and benefits means that values must be attributed to them. Valuation techniques, such as direct damage costing, hedonic pricing, contingent valuation, control costing and travel cost method (e.g., use of the costs of travelling to and visiting a recreational area to estimate the consumer benefits of the site) can be used (National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, 1995). However, these methods have weaknesses and are not appropriate in every case.

External costs themselves cannot be predicted with a high degree of certainty, because the functional relationships between, for example, transport activities and resulting environmental damage are not precisely known (Rothengatter, 1993). However, in the UK (Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, 1994, pp. 301-306) the annual costs of transport externalities have been estimated at: • 0.4 to 1.0% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for air pollution from transport; • 0.25 to 1.0% of GDP for transport noise; and • 0.25 to 0.375% of GDP for global warming caused by transport emissions.

-47- It should be noted that externalities also include risks that sometimes cannot be described exactly or in monetary terms. 2.4.2.3 Equity Among Users The question of equity among specific social groups is usually not explicitly considered in current transport models. The transportation disadvantaged, those people whose ability to travel is restricted by not having adequate access to either an automobile or transit service (Black, 1995), may need particular consideration in city to airport transport. These groups might include: • the poor; • the elderly; • the disabled; and • women.

Barriers to mobility can be physical (e.g., lack of transit service), economic (e.g., ability to pay fares), or social (e.g., racial discrimination) (Black, 1995).

Transport models on which decisions about equity among users would need to answer questions such as: • whether it is better for the elderly and disabled to have "separate but equal" transport services or be accommodated in the existing system; • what effect flexible working hours, longer hours for business and public facilities would have on women and the transport system; and • whether better public transport would enable the poor to improve their economic circumstances. 2.4.2.4 Information Needed Social and environmental effects of transport have not been adequately considered in current transport models. The likely reasons for this are current transport models either focus on an aggregate system, with no differentiation among particular groups; or concentrate on individuals' preferences. Additional information needed to incorporate social and environmental transport effects in transport investment decisions deals with the interactions have already been described in Table 2.6. It would include the effects of the decision on: • traffic congestion, including existing and derived demand for transport; • existing transport network, including trip time and reliability; • related land use, including the effects of urban consolidation; and • transport accessibility for specific social groups.

Further, the constraints associated with existing and proposed transport systems must be considered, such as: • transport system constraints at trip origins and destinations, including availability of carparking, existence of mode interchange opportunities;

-48- • traffic flow constraints, including transport management decisions such as speed limits, traffic signal phasing and coordination, provision of exclusive high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes, bus lanes and so on; • extent of existing transport infrastructure; • environmental considerations expressed as limits (e.g., overall goals for emission reductions, standards for visual/aesthetic impacts); • funding available for system enhancements; and • other transport management goals (e.g., higher modal split to public transport).

Neither the four-step transport models, behavioural models, transport/land-use models completely consider these effects and constraints. In particular, the link between demand for transport and externalities is indirect - it would only be included via exogenous pricing and/or tax policies in transport/land-use models, if the aim of these policies is to "internalise" (impose a cost to transport users) what would otherwise be external costs.

2.5 Forces for Change - Public Transport at the Crossroads The frameworks and disciplinary contexts for decision-making models themselves are complex, and include political science, sociology, organisational theory, economics, psychology, and management (Parsons, 1999, p. 247). Little wonder, then, that the literature also contains reasons why the economic and social systems of transport and land use have not always been reflected in transport planning practice to date. Among the reasons found in the literature are: • historical and political influences; • technical perspectives of public sector decision-makers; • differences in transport policy objectives and travel behaviour; and • simultaneous pressures for globalisation and transport network fragmentation.

2.5.1 Transport Decision-Making Environment The environment in which transport decisions are made is part of the economic and social system dealing with transport, land use and the environment (Black, et al, 1983; Black, 1981 ). It comprises civil and civic spheres. Transport and land use issues are raised in the civil sphere by pedestrians, drivers, vehicle owners, travellers, shippers, residents, lobby groups and so on.

The civic sphere is concerned with both research and policy. Research "actors" in the civic sphere can come from government, academic or private sectors. Policy "actors" in the civic sphere can also come from government, as well as transport modal agencies and statutory bodies.

-49- Civil Land-Use Transport Environment Sphere OJ[}][}][I][JJIT]IT]

Civic Public Policy Research Sphere 0~0 00@

TRANSPORT-LAND USE 'ACTORS' RESEARCH 'ACTORS' I Pedestrian A Government 2 Driver B Academic 3 Vehicle owner C Private 4 Traveller 5 Shipper POLICY 'ACTORS' 6 Resident X Government 7 Lobby group Y Transport modal agencies Z Statutory bodies Figure 2.5 Economic and Social Systems of Transport and Land Use (Source: Black, 1991, p. 5)

Transport and land use issues are raised through tension between an ideal state of affairs and the actual performance of the transport-land use system: the bigger the gap, the bigger the issue. The interactions among various groups of actors can occur in several ways: 1. Attempts will be made to narrow the gap between the ideal and perceived states through policy instruments. 2. Increased transport demand will cause transport-land use system deterioration, which will widen the gap. 3. Technology improvements may make new solutions feasible and raise community aspirations. 4. Funding constraints and pessimism about technology could limit the range of possible solutions and lower community expectations. 5. Greater public awareness lessens the differences between community perceptions about the gap and its actual state. 6. Issues may change over time, changing the real or perceived gap.

Conventional transport planning practices undertalcen in this environment, however, have left something to be desired, according to some (for example, Gillingwater in Button and Pearman, 1983). Models of trip generation and distribution, modal split and network assignment have an in-built bias towards "private car ownership mobility

-50- patterns", according to this source, even when public transport compensations are 3 included •

According to this criticism, questions of accessibility, especially in regard to certain groups such as the poor, the elderly, the handicapped, the young and women, may not be adequately addressed. This indicates a deficiency in considering social objectives in current transport investment decisions. Planning for public transport accessibility, such as concentrating residential growth around rail stations (Transportation Research Board, 2001; Weinberger, 2001; Scheurer, et al, 2001; Rood, 1999; Bernick and Cervero, 1997; Cervero, 1994), can provide social benefits.

Major problems cited in current transport investment appraisal are data availability and practical problems of handling dissimilar information (Roe, 1987, p. 5). This may explain some of the bias in current transport investment appraisals in practice. For example, if social data were missing, the tendency would be to treat social objectives with less emphasis. 2.5.1.1 Lack of Integration It may be that transport and land-use planning has not yet been fully integrated in practice; this criticism has been made in Australia (Cantwell, et al, 1995; New South Wales Government, 1993; NSW DUAP (in press)). Some of the institutional reasons for this lack of integration include historical and political reasons, as well as the teclmical perspectives of public-sector decision-malcers that deal with transport and land-use investment decisions. 2.5.1.1.1 Post War Non-integrated transport planning decisions can be traced to various facets of planning problems not receiving full attention at the same time in the post war period. At that time, major political issues were planning of housing destroyed by the war and macro economic developments, such as the labour market situation. Other facets of planning, including transport investment, were not considered in a way that would result in action being taken. In addition, public sector decision-making fi.·ameworks could vary with the level of government. That is, local transport planning decision frameworks may not necessarily be the same decision frameworks used nationally. There was also the underlying assumption that elements of societal development are mutually independent (van Delft and Nijkamp, 1977, p. 4).

These attitudes are still changing, despite advocates making the case some 30 years ago (e.g. the Sharp Report, 1971). In Australia, there is increasing attention being given to integrated transport development (for example, Department of Transport and Regional Services, 2002a; New South Wales Government 1993; Australian Federation of Construction Contractors, 1993). In the provision of rail infrastructure, a national rail network is currently being defined.

3 A consultancy has attempted to redress such modelling deficiencies by eliminating the behavioural weightings from the generalised cost weights so that direct times (costs) by public transport and road are compared (Jacana Consulting, 1998).

- 51 - 2.5.1.1.2 Compartmentalism A major block to integrated decisions for transport is how public decision-makers view these decisions with a particular technical bias. According to Carley and Christie (1992), technical bias causes "unwitting failures of policy integration". The natural and social sciences are organised into compartmentalised disciplines, which in turn cause decision makers to view problems from a single discipline's perceptions and solutions. However,

" .. .it is not that discipline based science is not essential to the process of understanding, but another, higher order to analysis is also necessary. This is to enable critical recognition of the inevitable limitations of our perceptions, and to integrate scientific knowledge with the many sources of social, economic, cultural and intuitive knowledge relevant to complex issues" (Carley and Christie, 1992, p. 155).

Government organisation reflects the tendency toward technical bias, with poor communication between departments or sectors pursuing divergent and often competing objectives (Carley and Christie, 1992, p. 155). Clearly, such organisational structures work against the provision of an integrated transport network. If public sector decisions are to become more integrated, and less to do with compartmentalised technical disciplines, changes are required in the decision :frameworks used.

In relation to transport provision, compartmentalism between roads and other forms of transport has caused project decisions that are not always the "best" solution.

"The separation of institutional responsibilities for roads and transport can lead to sub-optimal decision-making in terms of urban transport investment. The trade-offs between roads for cars, and public transportation are often not taken into account when these investments are managed through separate funding and responsibility hierarchies. Similarly, the :fragmentation of responsibilities for transport modes (bus, light rail, suburban train) leads to sub-optimal planning in terms of modal integration" (UITP, 1993, p. 178).

This view is also presented as a need for integration in two dimensions: (1) integration between transport, environment, and land use, and (2) integration between government authority levels (Austestad, 2000, p. 1). 2.5.1.2 Transport Planners' Perspectives An example of compartmentalism in public sector decision-making is the different views and outcomes of those who plan for transport and those who plan for land uses. Despite the obvious interactions between transport and land use, transport planners and land use planners tend to view the world differently (Gillingwater, 1983). Improved decision-making frameworks must be able to accommodate both views.

Table 2.7 shows the perspectives of transport and land-use planners. According to this view, transport planners in the public sector are more interested in evaluation of specific projects and land use planners are more interested establishing and evaluating policies.

-52- What is needed is a decision-making framework that will incorporate both views of the world to reach a more balanced project decision. 2.5.1.3 Transport Policy and Travel Behaviour The perceived connection between transport policy and actual behaviour of travellers (Salomon and Mokhtarian, 1997, p. 108) has changed over time. Up until the mid- 1960s, the response to road traffic congestion was to build more roads. To the 1970s and beyond, transport systems management has been used - this is a "supply-side" measure that attempts to use existing transport systems more effectively. More recently (from the 1980s) there has been an increasing recognition that human travel behaviour is the key the result is transport demand management that focuses on demand for travel, not the supply of transport infrastructure.

Importantly, although traffic congestion is the direct result of growing dependence on private, road-based transport, policy measures that have been introduced to deal with congestion have not been particularly effective - mainly because travel decisions stem from lifestyle choices, and not the other way arotmd (Salomon and Mokhtarian, 1997, p. 117). Any congestion-relieving measure that calls for a change in travellers' lifestyles is unlikely to be successful, according to this source. Table 2.7 Transport Planning and Land Use Planning Modes Compared explanatory level transport plmming land use plamzing characteristics characteristics technical dimension • control devices • financial instruments • overhead capital planning • intervention format • budgetary programs • general planning schemes • spatial bias • administrative planning • territorial planning administrative dimension • administrative strategy • strengthen existing policy • create new policy • administrative priority • efficiency criteria • equity considerations • organisational output • specific project packages • strategic policy statements political dimension • problem image • sectoral • global • policy objective • direct price effects • indirect income effects • policy impact • short run payoffs • long term restructuring ideological dimension • technical interest • project evaluation • policy evaluation • ideological stress • selectivist • universalist • impact evaluation • opaque • transparent example transport policies and structure plan ro rams written statements (Source: Gillingwater, 1983, p. 56) 2.5.1.4 Globalisation versus Fragmentation There are simultaneous forces for globalisation and fragmentation of transport provision. The interdependence of technical, economic and social change is receiving increased recognition (OECD, 1988). Information and communications technologies themselves are changing the transport industry. The transition to an "infmmation

-53- economy" (Brotchie, 1992) will mean changed work locations, an increase in the rate of technological change, and an increase in the "intemationalisation" of industry.

At the same time there are forces for further fragmentation of transport provision. Public transport privatisation has occurred in Japan, Sweden, Denmark and Britain (White, 1994). In Australia, the catalyst has been the National Competition Policy (Hilmer, 1993), and its implementation where public rail transport has been separated into rail operators and an owner of the fixed rail infrastructure. The push to decrease calls on public funds for transport has led to exposure of previously publicly provided transport to competition through corporatisation, contestability and contracting out.

2.5.2 Emerging Frameworks-Sustainability and Transport Decisions In addition to simultaneous globalisation and fragmentation forces acting on transport provision, there is increasing interest in Ecologically Sustainable Development (ESD) and its effects on transport provision (Commonwealth of Australia, 1991). The idea of "sustainable mobility" (Peake and Hope, 1994) has been put forward as the orientation for future transport decision-making. This extends existing economic-based decision making to include a broader range of environmental, social and distributional factors (Banister, 1994, p. 65). Others (e.g., Simpson, 1994; Newman and Kenworthy, 1999) call for more clear and decisive planning of public transport and land use in practice. In addition: "Policy measures designed to alleviate congestion must be evaluated by a number of criteria such as teclmological and economic feasibility, time frame for implementation and political acceptance. A necessary criterion, which is often overlooked, is the behavioural test, namely an analysis of the response by the target population as to whether or not the measure will act in the desired direction" (Salomon and Mokhtarian, 1997, p. 109).

Teclmological and economic decision-making frameworks consider portions of the total assessment. Technological decision-making frameworks consider the physical aspects of the project. Economic frameworks consider the financial, the overall social, and (in some cases) the environmental aspects of the project.

The risk and planning frameworks might successfully balance competing objectives, but there is no built in mechanism to ensure that the tension among goals is adequately considered. A risk framework might take into account most project objectives, if the assessment is broad enough. Some of the planning frameworks discussed (for example, the goals achievement matrix approaches) might also consider most project objectives, again if the scope of the assessment is sufficiently wide.

However, the practice of planning for transport in the public sector has institutional barriers that can prevent the most comprehensive decision framework from adequately covering the many, and sometimes conflicting, technical, economic, environmental and social objectives. This calls for a consistent approach to transport provision and clear lines of responsibility between agencies (New South Wales Audit Office, 1997, p. 169).

-54- In Sydney, concern with broader transport objectives- covered in the term "integrated transport" (New South Wales Government 1993, 1998)- has focused attention on the integration between: • transport and land use; • transport and the environment; • modes of transport; and • a single link and the broader transport network in which it operates.

But while we have a substantial body of knowledge about the relationship between each of these sets of interaction, there is no single, overall framework that brings everything together to "provide a single integrated solution to immediate local needs" (NSW Audit Office, 1997, p. 168). How well that integration is accomplished- and in fact what the integration actually accomplishes - is unclear. Although it is recognised that policies that allow for increased mobility, especially by car are unsustainable, "whether an 'integrated transport strategy' has the potential to deliver a more sustainable pattern of transport appears to be almost unquestioned accepted wisdom" (Potter and Skinner, 2000, p. 275).

Australia has developed ESD principles (Commonwealth of Australia, 1991) that could be used to frame criteria for sustainable transport decisions. Future transport decision making practice could use investment criteria similar to those of Sweden and France (Table 2.8). Both sets of criteria represent attempts at a more holistic "integrated" approach to transport provision. A method for the integrated investment and appraisal of transport policy programs has been suggested which combines economic impacts, regional and urban impacts, as well as environmental sustainability and safety (Rothengatter, 1996). It combines private rate of return, cost benefit analysis, and multi criteria analysis using both cardinal and ordinal scales.

Among the more recent developments in decision-making is the UK' s approach to transport appraisal (Department ofthe Environment, Transport and the Regions, 1998). This approach is encapsulated in its appraisal summary table (Vickerman, 2000, table 1), covering environmental impact, safety, economy, accessibility and integration criteria.

2.6 Critique and Gaps Investment in transport infrastructure is capital intensive and the assets acquired have very long lives. Both facts point to the need for wise decisions for individual transport projects. The decision-making frameworks found in the literature, and current transport practice, tend to focus on the mechanics of decision-making rather than its conceptual or normative aspects. An attempt has been made to categorise the diverse range of existing decision-making frameworks under four headings, but their uses in practice are likely to overlap. In addition, the mechanics are not as critical as what a transport investment decision-making framework should do.

-55- Table 2.8 Comparison of Possible Sustainable Decision-Making Criteria for Transport Criteria from Sweden Criteria from France Traffic, economy and road Regional and local development maintenance • traffic safety • ease of movement • travel time • indirect employment effects • comfort • changes in attractiveness of an area • vehicle costs • balance between developed and less developed areas • maintenance Safety • reduction in number of deaths and severe injuries

Environmental and land use effects Environment and quality of life • noise • effects on natural resources and ecosystems • air pollution • human activities including urban planning and access • barrier effects • quality of life • water supply • vibrations Minimisation of severe problems • landscape I scenery • alleviation of particular problems (black spots, • nature conservation congestion and risks from natural phenomena • land development Impacts on other transport modes • switches between modes, including gains and losses of revenue

Regional development, etc. Direct effects on employment • regional balance • jobs created during the construction and maintenance • effects on trade, industry and tourism (Sources: Button, 1993, pp. 126-127; Banister, 1994, p. 120)

A decision-making framework should provide: • all information needed to make an investment decision by decision-makers, and • an indication of alternative project preferences or rankings.

It should also provide the above information in a summary form that is easily understood by the (often non-technical) decision-maker. Further, concerns about the broader social and economic aspects of transport provision point to the need for their inclusion in a transport investment decision-making framework.

There has been a call for a transport decision-making framework that allows the transparent evaluation of intermodal, network and corridor considerations of transport infrastructure investments (National Transport Planning Taskforce, 1994). However, none of the existing decision-making frameworks found in the literature is sufficient on its own to foster transport investment decisions that will provide sustainable mobility. A focus on technical solutions, as in technological decision-making frameworks, is apt to not adequately consider the less tangible aspects of transport, and possibly not even consider project costs. Economic decision-making frameworks such as cost benefit analysis, on the other hand, do not explicitly consider alternative transport technologies or modes, and concentrate on overall benefits in an environment where policy decisions

-56- are made about target passenger groups. Risk-based approaches are apt to be either incomplete, completely subjective, or both. The planning decision-making frameworks are often conglomerations of the other three types of frameworks, and do not always explicitly consider the trade offs between economic, social and environmental goals that must be made in real life. None of the existing frameworks considers the synergistic effects of an additional transport link to the existing transport network.

2.6.1 Relevant Information What is needed to provide sustainable mobility is a decision-making framework that comprises the following four key elements: 1. financial/economic; 2. social; 3. environmental; and 4. synergistic or intermodal effects.

These are explained in the following sections. 2.6.1.1 Financial/Economic Elements The financial and economic effects of a transport project alternative are relatively well tmderstood and explored in decision-making practice. They are important for a number of reasons: • they crystallise the timing for and planning of project cash flows, • they explicitly consider temporal issues, and • they indicate an overall preference, at least in theory, for a quantifiable costs and benefits for society at large. 2.6.1.2 Social Elements Transport decision-makers often wish to consider particular groups of passengers. For example, if the "mobility impaired" passenger were targeted for increased transport access, then information about the realistic choice sets for this group should be included in the decision-making process. Actual transport investment decision-making in Australia also often considers job creation, another social element. 2.6.1.3 Environmental Elements Environmental effects need to be included. For transport, these are often economic "externalities" (costs or benefits that accrue to those not actively involved with the transport system, such as the effect of traffic noise on residents in the surrounding area). In the Australian context, there is also the explicit consideration of risk embodied in the ESD principles of caution in dealing with risk and uncertainty and intergenerational equity.

2.6.2 Trade Offs To partially overcome the inherent, long term forecast risk in transport planning, comparisons of the present and future alternatives for the transport system should be made, as illustrated in Table 2.9.

-57- Table 2.9 Proposed Transport Investment Decision-Making Framework Transport system state Decision-making framework elements to consider Present • social • environmental • network related Future - with proposed project • fmancial/economic • social • environmental • network related Future -without proposed project • fmancial/economic • social • environmental • network related

2. 7 Conclusions A review of the literature reveals four broad types of transport decision-making frameworks with a focus on technological, economic, risk or planning decision dimensions, which have varying weaknesses and applications in transport decision making practice (see Table 2.5 for a summary).

The decision-making frameworks identified are underpinned by transport models, which are used to simulate changes brought about by additional infrastructure investment. The literature shows that demand for transport, such as from the city the to airport, can be modelled in several ways, through use of conventional four-step, behavioural demand, linked transport/land-use, or integrated transpmilland-use models. However, the literature also identifies their shortcomings: • four-step transport models do not consider travel behaviour; • microeconomic models ignore the connections between travel that the activities that give rise to it; • linked transport/land-use models treat travel demand as inelastic, which is not always the case; and • integrated transport/land-use models treat trips as events independent from spending decisions, can neglect off-peak travel, and in general treat urban dynamics in a relatively primitive way.

The literature search has also revealed an emerging decision-making framework that incorporates the concept of sustainable transport. What appears to be needed is a decision-making framework that incorporates economic, social, environmental and intermodal goals for transport. In order to develop such a framework, complex transport/land-use interactions need to be reduced to their fundamentals. This is explored in the following chapter (Chapter 3).

To better understand what these decision-making frameworks mean in practice, suitable real world examples of contemporary decision-making for urban rail transport need to be identified and explored. These examples would need to be intermodal in nature - a

-58- decision that does not explicitly involve other transport modes is unlikely to demonstrate intermodal goals for transport. Potential decision-making case studies include provision of high-speed rail between cities and airports. While a case study of this type of decision would have been interesting, it has not been used. Other possible case studies would be rail decisions that focus on connections to airports. There are several possibilities here, including development of rail in the European Union and development of the Shinkansen in Japan. The real world decision-making environment that has been selected is CBD to airport rail access. Chapter 3 discusses the fundamentals of analysis of CBD-airport traffic, the specific characteristics of such links and current decision-making practice are explored in Chapters 4 and 5, and a new decision-making framework for investment in public transport is developed using Sydney's CBD-airport rail link in Chapter 6.

-59- 3 FUNDAMENTALS IN THE ANALYSIS OF CBD AIRPORT TRAFFIC

3.1 Introduction

Cities are complex and real world interactions in the urban land use/transport system are equally complex. Use of a simple model of this system, as explained in Blunden (1967), Blunden (1971), Black (1981), and Blunden and Black (1984), reduces these interactions to their fundamentals, and provides insight into system performance and future behaviour. These fundamentals include functions to represent transport systems as networks with associated transport impedances on each linlc and their linlc capacities (transport supply) and how to represent travel demand in terms of traffic generation, the spatial pattern of traffic, and transport mode and route choice. More recently, Richardson (1995) has followed this approach to reveal some apparent paradoxes with respect to the imposition of tolls on urban roads.

Transport project appraisals involve physical and fiscal aspects. The physical transport system is defined using transport models such as four-stage transport models, microeconomic models or activity-based models (Fischer, 1993, p. 2). These models produce information on optimal traffic flows, average speeds or travel times and costs of travel. This information, in turn, is used in a fiscal decision making framework such as an economic appraisal (Roads and Traffic Authority, 1999; New South Wales Treasury, 1997). An economic appraisal for a transport project considers travel-related costs and benefits, such as vehicle operating costs, travel time costs and accident costs, as well as route-related costs and benefits, such as design, utility relocation, construction and maintenance costs.

Although abstraction, simplification and generalisation do not reveal the specific social, economic and environmental processes of the land use/transport system, they can add insight into how these processes relate to one another. Transport models themselves have been used since the 1950s in transport planning practice (Creighton, 1970; Black, 1999). These models aid transport decision maldng, and are used as a key technical ingredient in the formulation of a set of future scenarios from which investment decisions are subsequently made.

A simple model can be constructed using the notion of equilibrium between transport system performance and transport demand, stated and revealed preferences, or generalised costs. In this chapter, the pressure to link airports with adjacent city centres is used as the basis for development of a two route, two zone model. First, a base model is constructed to illustrate the fundamentals of current modelling approaches and what is excluded from current decision-making practice. The base model illustrates the evolution of airport ground access - from a road-only route, to an improved road route, and finally a road route and a rail route from the city to the airport. This model is then enhanced to include additional social and environmental factors. These additional "quality of life" issues included in the enhanced model are thought to result in a transport network with minimum activity (vehicle traffic) and maximum accessibility to prospective travellers. Finally, possible policy justifications for a second rail-based route from the city to the airport are discussed.

-60- 3.2 Two Models of CBD-Airport Access 3.3.1 Evolution of City-Airport Transport A generic, three stage development of city-airport transport links is used in the discussion of existing and potential models of ground transport. This is based on the assumption that the evolution of transport links between the central business district (CBD) and the airport follow the general stages of development identified below: (a) road only (single route); (b) improved road only (single route); and (c) improved road and rail (two routes).

Actual development of transport from the city to the airport will not always follow these stages, but there are many practical examples that could be cited from cities throughout the world that support this staging of development. They are a simplification of real world activities and are used as representations of what might occur (Lee, 1973).

3.2.2 Base Model of Travel Demand The base model of city to airport traffic uses the three generic stages of city to airport transport evolution listed above. The model considers two routes, road and rail; and two zones, and is broadly based on Sydney's central business district (CBD) and airport precinct at Mascot to provide realistic input data to the model, in terms of traffic demand levels and transport supply characteristics.

There are two segments of the model, which produce: 1. equilibrium traffic for the two city-airport routes; and 2. forecast traffic growth over time.

The components of the base model are used to demonstrate and reconcile the system optimisation of equilibrium modelling approaches to inclusion of individuals' preferences in discrete choice modelling.

3.2.2.1 Equilibrium Traffic User equilibrium models show the way a physical system behaves. They do not show the choices individual travellers make when choosing alternative routes or alternative modes. Equilibrium, as it is used in the base model, is the intersection of: 1. transport system performance, defined by the relationship between travel time and traffic flows; and 2. demand for travel, defined by the spatial interaction between land use and transport.

Use of Wardrop's principles of traffic assignment (Wardrop, 1952) 1 to calculate an equilibrium solution yields an optimal number of vehicles that can be accommodated by

1 Wardrop's first principle of traffic assignment is that if n number of altemative routes are available between a particular origin and destination, the traffic adjusts itself in such a way as to even up times on

-61- the physical transport system. This is described in the transport system performance and demand functions.

3.2.2.1.1 Transport System Performance Function The time, t, for vehicles to travel along the two transport routes are expressed as (Acelik, 1991; Rose, Taylor and Tisato, 1989; Blunden and Black, 1984; Davidson, 1966):

tod = l [ 1 - (1-j) Y / 1 -Y} where l= zero-flow travel time, or the average time for a single vehicle to travel a given distance by itself; j= level of service parameter, related to the variability or randomness of the traffic flow; y= traffic intensity, or observed traffic flow q, divided by physical capacity of routes.

The above travel time-flow equation describes how traffic might physically flow through a transport system, and gives the performance of the transport system. It is sometimes referred to as a "transport supply function", but this is inconsistent with the usual definition of a supply function in economic theory (Morlok, 1980, p. 11). It is not a supply function that describes the relationship between the price of a commodity and the quantity of that commodity which will be produced or supplied in the market. It does not describe the behaviour of a supplier, but it does describe the result of the behaviour of purchasers of transport. From an economist's point of view, a more accurate description of the travel-time flow equation would be a "user cost-volume function" or "travel cost function".

For the simple worked example of a CBD-airport system the transport supply characteristics assumed are shown in Table 3.1. Table 3.1 Transport Supply Characteristics of Base Model stage s fl j d (vehicles/ (min/km) (km) hour) (a) Road only 2,000 2.0 1.0 10

(b) Improved road 3,500 1.7 1.0 10

The road only stage assumes a relatively low saturation flow. The level of service for the road route only stage approximates the conditions found on local streets - a situation found in those cities where airports' road connections are poorly developed. The these routes. His second principle is that traffic assignment between modes is done in a way that minimises average travel times (or costs).

-62- improved road stage assumes that the capacity of the route to the airport has been increased. The road and rail stage assumes a rail saturation capacity of 20 trains per hour (based on a minimum of three-minute headways for rail). In this example, the speed of the rail mode is assumed to be higher than that of the road mode.

3.2.2.1.2 Transport Demand Function The demand for transport expresses the relationship between land use and transport, and is described by the unconstrained form of the gravity model (Blunden, 1971):

KLoLd Tod= tod where Tod = total trips;

Lo = land use activity in CBD;

Ld = land use activity in airport precinct;

K = proportionality constant;

tod = average travel time.

The amount used for land use activity is the CBD population. In this model, land use in the airport system is the number of terminating domestic and international air passengers and estimated airport employee trips. Both are scaled by a proportionality constant. In this simple model, trips are one way only. Linear relationships are assumed among the variables that produce the demand curve.

Table 3.2 shows the values for La.,Ld and K that were used. For each stage, it has been assumed that the CBD population remains constant, although this is not necessary. The values used for Lo represent job numbers in the origin zone (CBD employment). The value used for Ld represents land use in the destination zone (terminating air trips and airport employee trips). Both parameters increase over time to model increases in CBD employment and airport passengers. The proportionality constant, K, of 2.5 is a measure of traffic generation between the city and the airport. Table 3.2 Land-Use/Transport Demand Characteristics of Base Model stage Lo Ld K (a) Road only 180,000 42,000 2.5

(b) Improved road 190,000 55,000 2.5

-63- 3.2.2.I.3 Solution Methodology The solution for the base model uses the two expressions for land-use/transport demand characteristics and transport supply characteristics. The solution finds the equilibrium pattern of traffic and travel times, and assigns traffic to the two routes in the network to satisfy Wardrop's first principle of traffic assignment. Using the expression for land-use/transport demand, KLoLd Tod = tod gives 2.5X190X55 Tod = tod

= 26.125 X 104 I tad where CBD population, and airport passengers and employees are represented in units of 1,000 to simplify the arithmetic, or if the trips are measured in units of 1,000- again for the purpose of simplification:

(1) Tod= 26.125/tod

Applying Wardrop's second principle:

tad = l [I - (I -j) y I I - y}

For the road route, this is: 1 - (1- 1) q1 I 3,500 ] tod(road route 1) = 10 X 1.7 [ 1-q//3,500

If the flow q1 is measured in units of 1,000 trips per hour, this simplifies to: (3.5) (2) tod(road route 1) = 17 (3.5- q1)

Similarly, solution and simplification for the rail route is: (0.02- 0.8 q2) (3) tod(rail route 2) = 11.4 (0.02- q2 )

And equal travel times on both routes means that:

tad (road route 1) = tad (rail route 2)

-64- (3.5) (0.02- 0.8 q2) 17 (3.5-qJ) = 11.4 (0.02 - q2) or

Since q1 + q2 =Tad, and q1 + q2 = 37.125 I fad, and fad for the rail and road routes are defined above, substitution of fad (road route 1) in equation 1 into this equation yields

and simplifies to

The solutions of equations 4 and 5 form a quadratic equation that gives the positive roots:

ql= 0.017 q2 = 1.056

Converting these results back into trips per hour, the following is the equal travel time assignment:

q1 = 17 vehicles per hour q2 = 1,056 vehicles per hour.

And total trips per hour are Tad = 1,073 trips per hour

The average travel time is found by substituting in equations 1, 2 or 3, and is 24 minutes.

3.2.2.1.4 Equilibrium Solutions The equilibrium pattern of traffic and travel times, as well as assignment of traffic to the two routes to minimise average travel times or costs, are the objectives of the equilibrium solution for the transport system performance and demand functions.

The measure of traffic intensity, y, in the system performance of travel time-flow function is the proportion of observed traffic flow, q, to route capacity, s. The base model of city to airport traffic sets "observed"1 travel times on the two routes equal to one another. In doing this, the vehicle flows for the unknown qs are solved. This solution assumes that all vehicles move through the transport system in a rational way, with perfect knowledge of transport alternatives. It also assumes that individual travellers behave uniformly.

1 Traffic flows have not actually been observed, but are assumed in this example.

-65- The results for each of the city-airport transport scenarios are summarised in Table 3.3. The results show that with improvements in the "supply" of a transport system there are more vehicles that can be accommodated and overall travel times on average.

Table 3.3 Equilibrium Solutions for Base Model Stage road trips rail trips tad(mins) (a) Road only 642 29

(b) Improved road 1,068 24

3.2.2.2 Alternative Predictions of Mode Shares Equilibrium solutions would predict mode shares between the two routes in the base model of city to airport traffic - ifprospective travellers had: • perfect knowledge of the attributes of the two routes; 1 • no biases concerning access to the rail route ; and • behaved in a totally rational way.

Two other ways to predict how many prospective travellers would choose each route are (1) stated and revealed preferences and (2) generalised costs. Both are based on the concept of "utility", which assumes that the benefits and individual derives from an activity can be summarised in a single, ordinal measure. Alternative activities can be ranked according to their respective utilities. Transpoti generally imposes costs on an activity, or "disutility". In the case of transport, the activity itself that causes the journey to be undertaken is ignored and the disutility of travel only is measured (British Rail, 1989). The larger the disutility becomes, the less travel will be undertaken.

Behavioural cost functions explain people's travel behaviour and enable it to be predicted. People base their travel behaviour on imperfect perceptions of cost. The total "cost" or disutility modelled here is what travel decision-makers perceive. As such, these cost functions are useful for predicting mode shifts. It should be noted that resource costs, important for analysis of investment alternatives, are not included (Mcintosh and Quarmby, 1970).

3.2.2.2.1 Stated and Revealed Preferences In stated preference (SP) surveys, respondents state a preference in response to multiple pairs of transport options. SP methods make it possible to assess travellers' behavioural responses to the introduction of a new transport linl(, by allowing individuals to choose from among choices of various combinations of fares, travel, interchange and waiting

1 Among the personal biases against rail transpmt to the airport would be perceptions about additional access and waiting times, safety, convenience (including travelling with others to the airport and provision for baggage), service reliability, and fares.

-66- times. Currently the most popular form of transport evaluation (Hensher, 1993), stated choice experiments make it possible to estimate market share for a new transport link. From these preferences, diversion rates to a new transport mode are calculated.

In the actual feasibility study for a CBD-airport rail link in Sydney (Airport Link Association, 1993), revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) utilities were used to calculate future mode shares. The Sydney feasibility work was underpinned by behavioural decisions about route choice, and derives utilities for various transport modes. If the information from the previous Sydney study is simplified to represent two zones, a CBD zone and an airport zone, predicted mode shares on the road route and the 1 rail route are 53% and 47%, respectively •

With revealed preference data, estimated mode shares for daily city to airport trips (Airport Link Association, 1993) with a direct rail link were ranked as taxi, bus, car, then hotel bus followed by rail/bus, hire car and rail/taxi. In addition, stated preference utilities are a snapshot of individual preferences at a particular time. Even if they are a fair representation of the current situation, these utilities do not allow for changes in individual preferences, or for changes in transport technology and other future developments. This could be solved through the use of periodic SP surveys to gauge changes in mode splits over time.

3.2.2.2.2 Generalised Costs An important assumption for construction of models based on utilities is that prospective travellers trade off the qualities of a journey under the attributes for different modes. Service quality attributes, such as fares, vehicle operating costs, in vehicle travel times, service intervals, and so on, are given values and are added together to give the generalised cost of a particular transport mode for a particular journey (British Rail, 1989).

The cost functions used here are:

Car, Taxi modes = constant + Pivtin vehicle time + PcostCOst (e.g. tolls, parking, fares)

Bus, Rail modes= constant + Pivtin vehicle time + Paccaccess time + Prarefare + Psiservice interval + Pintinterchange time where the Ps for each mode are parameter valuations of specific joumey attributes.

Using the generalised cost functions above (Airport Link Association, 1993), as well as estimated average travel time costs (RTA, 1999), generalised costs for each transport mode between the CBD and the airport are calculated and shown in Table 3.4.

-67- Table 3.4 Generalised Costs (2000 dollars) by Mode, CBD-Airport mode generalised cost (2000 dollars) Car* $ 9.14 Bus $19.39 Rail $29.01 Taxi $32.76

* Costs of parking are not included

If generalised costs are used to predict transport demand among modes, the largest to smallest market share would be private vehicles first, then bus, rail and taxi modes. What generalised costs do not show, however, is the number of forecast trips by each mode.

3.2.2.3 Traffic Growth Predicted air passenger demand is used as a proxy for growth in the number of CBD airport trips in this hypothetical example. Forecasts from Sydney's airport planning strategy (Sinclair Knight and Partners, 1990) are used in the base model. Using growth in air passenger demand, forecast growth in CBD-airport trips averages almost 3% annually over a 25-year period from 2003 to 2028, as shown in Table 3.5.

Table 3.5 Forecast CBD-Airport Trips year forecast daily trips 2003 18,084 2008 25,516 2013 25,600 2018 27,345 2023 29,208 2028 31,199

The base model uses another simplification relating to traffic growth. Under typical assumptions of no intervention with forecast infrastructure investment, mode shares are assumed to remain constant into the future.

3.2.2.4 Analysis of Base Model As discussed above, a base model of city to airport traffic can be formulated on the basis of the physical attributes of a transport network only (as in the equilibrium traffic solution) - or the physical attributes of a transport network can be presumed to influence individual travellers' preferences and/or behaviours (as in mode shares predicted via SP/RP utilities or generalised costs).

Regardless of the method used to forecast demand for travel from the city to the airport, demand forecasts are translated into economic effects to discuss the relative desirability of CBD-airport routes, in quantified terms such as:

-68- • vehicle operating costs; • aggregated travel times of individuals; and • accident costs.

However, the effects of transport investment decisions on traffic congestion and its effects on the environment, the existing transport network, related land use, and accessibility are only partially dealt with in the base model. In practice, this typical transport system model could be rejected due to an "increasing concern with what is often rather poorly conceptualised as the environment" (Healey, 1977). This concern is about quality of life issues, and can include both the physical environment, as well as social factors.

3.2.3 Enhanced Model Specific requirements for modelling airport ground access include: • the ability to model airport travellers' choices about getting to and from the airport; • analysis of passenger and vehicle flows on the CBD-airport transport network; and • models to estimate the air quality and traffic congestion impacts of traffic generated by the airport (Gosling, 1999).

In future, these modelling requirements will be enabled through the application of advances in information technology to ground access simulation models (Mumayiz and Jain, 1999). However, the two route two zone base model of city to airport traffic can be enhanced to illustrate how environmental and social objectives might be achieved.

A transport system's environmental effects arise from: • its physical size (e.g. stormwater run off from roadways, impacts on biodiversity, as well as wastes from used vehicles, tyres and waste oil) • the characteristics of the transport modes used (e.g. noise, emissions, fuel consumption); and • the amount of traffic (e.g. number of trips or vehicles, and the resulting level of congestion) in the multi-modal system.

Environmental objectives for city to airport transport can be expressed in terms of limits - with minimal system traffic or activity being a more desirable, because it would minimise adverse environmental impacts.

Specific social objectives for city to airport traffic might include its impact on particular groups of people in terms of: • accessibility to transport modes; • the proportion individuals' incomes spent on transport; • traffic acting as a barrier to walking and cycling; and

-69- • visual amenity of transport infrastructure.

Social objectives for provision of ground access to airports are likely to vary. For the purposes of illustration of the enhanced two route two zone model of city to airport transport, accessibility to transport is used as a social objective.

The overall goal of the enhanced model could then be expressed as minimum overall transport system activity (measured by, say, total passenger kilometres) to yield maximum accessibility. The balance between minimum efficient activity and maximum accessibility limits what has been called the "market for movements" (Sjostedt, 1995).

3.2.3.1 Minimum System Activity 3.2.3.1.1 Capacity Issues If minimal interaction of the transport system with the surrounding environment (measured by minimal passenger kilometres) is a goal for an enhanced transport system model, then questions arise about how well the system is used. Minimum system activity should not be confused with inefficient use of current transport system capacity.

The base model assumes that the traffic between the city and the airport is generated solely by airport related activities, and that there are no other activities (increasing the number of trips) taldng place within and between these two zones. For this reason, the base model describes a transport system with, of course, much excess capacity. Even with the forecast growth in demand for CBD to airport transport, the capacity of the single route would accommodate it. This reflects the real-world situation where non airport traffic would also use route capacity.

Another capacity issue concerns the relatively large passenger carrying capacities of vehicles such as buses and trains, and the likely temporal pattern of trips from the city to the airport. Not all passengers will want to travel at the same time. It is unrealistic to expect that buses and trains travelling between the city and the airport will wait until they are fully loaded before they begin their journeys. If this were attempted, only a few buses or trains would travel daily for the predicted level of passenger demand. This service frequency would make larger capacity transport vehicles non-competitive. As a consequence, actual patronage would be likely to be much less.

Even if passenger demand comes close to forecast, a considerable excess capacity is needed to bring bus and train service frequencies up to a level that would attract forecast patronage. For example, the base model indicates that the number of buses needed to cany the forecast passengers would be about 1 every hour. Obviously, these frequencies would not be competitive with other modes of transport to the airport. Instead of growth in passengers over time, the bus and train transport modes are likely to suffer an actual decrease in passenger demand. This result suggests that it is virtually impossible to justify dedicated rail infrastructure from the city centre to the airport and has obvious implications for cost recoveries and the long-term viability of large capacity public transport.

-70- 3.2.3.1.2 External Effects a/Transport System The interaction of the transport system with the environment can take the form of vehicle emissions including greenhouse gases, air pollution, traffic noise, accidents, water and soil pollution, severance, and visual effects. These impacts are not transmitted through market transactions (Bureau of Transport Economics, 1999b, Chapter 12), and are generally identified and are quantifiable, although these "costs" are subject to wide interpretations and are the topic of ongoing debate.

As an example, annual air pollution, climate change, noise, and vibration costs were estimated in the UK (Royal Commission on Pollution, 1994). These broad estimates are related to the specific characteristics of the UK transport system, and amount to £4.6 billion (Silbertson, 1995), or $12.3 billion in 2002 Australian dollars.

Methods to assign costs to transport externalities include (Tepper and Tsolakis, 2000): • direct costing, used where a market exists, such as the market value of land used for transport, medical expenses incurred by society and so on; • dose-response techniques, where the relationship between a pollutant and physical damage can be established - the cost is the estimated damage multiplied by the unit cost of damage; • costs of shadow projects; • hedonic pricing, or use of a surrogate market that varies with the attributes of the externality - residential real estate values are often used as a surrogate market for environmental effects; • contingent valuation (or willingness to pay), based on stated preference surveys; and • control or mitigation costs, used as a proxy for damage costs.

Examples of Australian costs for externalities of road-based transport include: • costs of urban motor vehicle emissions from 0.677 cents per litre for cars to 2.269 cents per litre for heavy petrol vehicles (BTCE and EPA, 1994); • health costs of motor vehicle emissions from $786 million (0.21% of GDP) to less than $30 million (Segal, 1995); and • traffic noise, expressed in a noise depreciation index (NDI, which estimates the percentage depreciation in house value for a unit increase in noise level above a threshold value) is 0.9% per dB(A) over 50 dB(A) (RTA, 1999).

The base model can be enhanced to take these effects into account by calculating overall vehicle kilometres for the transport system in its improved road and rail stage. This is consistent with the goal of reduced overall vehicle kilometres in the Sydney metropolitan area (NSW Government, 1998). The difference in estimated passenger kilometres between a transport system that has both road and rail routes with one that has a road route only is likely to result in net savings, using available information on the costs per vehicle ldlometre for accidents, noise, greenhouse gas, local air pollution, and water pollution (Bray and Tisato, 1997, p. 602). The approximate value ofthese savings would depend on the respective mode shares for each route, as shown in Table 3.6.

-71- Table 3.6 Approximate Accident and Environmental Savings by Mode Share, 2003 to 2028

Basis for predicted mode share Mode share Reduction in Net passenger environmental kilometres savings SP utilities 53% road 47% rail 645.2 million $213.6 million Actual mode share1 - high end of range 70%road 30% rail 383.6 million $127.0 million - low end of range 90%road 10% rail 80.1 million $26.5 million

Traffic speeds and flows are key factors in an enhanced model. Vehicle em1sswn behaviour, noise levels and energy consumption will vary with expected speeds and traffic flows (Miyamoto and Sathyaprasad, 1995). The base model contains assumptions about average speeds for a road and a rail route. This model could be expanded to analysis of traffic speeds and flows along each route for different times of day, and estimates made for emissions, noise and energy consumption.

Using the equilibrium solution of the base model (Table 3.3) and exhaust emission rates from the Metropolitan Air Quality Study (Camovale, et al, 1997), the vehicles that are diverted :fi.·om the road route result in emission savings. Table 3.7 shows the emissions that would otherwise have occurred for volatile organic compounds (VOC), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and total suspended particulates (TSP, measured here as 10 m~-t in diameter, produced from such things as smoke, tyre and brake wear). Table 3. 7 Estimated Daily Emissions of Road Vehicles Diverted to Rail Route voc NOx co TSP grams grams grams grams Average Summer Day 58,423 90,751 703,028 6,738 Average Winter Day 86,467 98,151 1,209,363 7,556 Based on Exhaust Emission Rates for the MAQS Vehicle Fleet

Similarly, the diversion of road vehicles to rail could reduce road traffic noise. If the average speed were about 75 kilometres per hour, a road noise reduction of 3 dB(Ai for those trips that are diverted to the rail mode would need to be compared with the noise generated by these trips on the rail mode before the overall effects of this diversion could be calculated. In practice, this may not be particularly straight forward, partly because the marginal external costs of noise depend on the time of day (these costs generally being higher in off peak times of day than during peak times - Mayeres, et al, 1996, p. 127).

1 The actual mode share for the Sydney CBD to airport rail link to date is probably in the range of 10% (Melbourne Airport Transit Link website, www.doi.vic.gov.au/airportlink, access date 29 April 2002) to 30% (Heasley, 2001; AirWise, 2000). 2 Based on a hourly noise level ofL10 = 42.2 + 10 Log10 q dB(A) (UK DoT, 1988), a 47% diversion to rail and 4% private vehicles, 12% bus transport and 37% taxi transport. Occupancy rates assumed for road based transport are 1.2 people for private vehicles, 40 people for buses and 1.0 people for taxis.

-72- 1 Energy consumption of road-based transport would also be reduced • If the average speed were about 30 kilometres per hour, the amount of fuel saved each day for those trips that divert to the rail mode is 4,674 litres. Higher average speeds result in lower fuel consumption- at 75 kilometres per hour, fuel savings are 4,401litres.

Urban consolidation savings and conservation of heritage items are among the other possible by-products of minimum transport system activity. For the Sydney airport rail link, effects on heritage items, as well as potential physical (provision of utilities to new dwellings in a currently settled area) and social (provision of schools, hospitals etc.) infrastructure cost savings, were identified. These could be costed but no attempt is made here to do so.

Another aspect of a transport linlc between the city and the airport that is not included in the base model is its ability to connect a ground based transport network with an air based one. Research on the short-haul business air travel market in Europe (Mason and Gray, 1995) identified airport accessibility as one of six principal discriminating factors. If the airport is in fact an intermediate destination for many travellers, the base model deals with only a leg of many of its predicted trips.

3.2.3.2 Maximum Accessibility Maximum accessibility for particular groups is the goal that needs to be balanced with the goal of minimum transport system activity. Accessibility is different than mobility. Mobility deals with the availability of transport, or "being able to get around". On the other hand, accessibility is "being able to get where you want to in a convenient manner" (National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, 1995). Accessibility is related to land use and is dealt with in planning guidelines, such as those in New South Wales (NSW Department ofUrban Affairs and Planning, 2001).

Social equity questions deal with who is granted accessibility to specific land uses. The Australian government's Ecologically Sustainable Working Group recognises that:

"Dependence on private transport for access to goods, services or employment can have an even greater effect on certain groups within the community. For example, women and young people are less likely to have access to private transport, and so have less employment opportunities in areas not served well by public transport. Women, whether working or seeking employment, are doubly disadvantaged in these circumstances because of their more complicated travel pattems arising from commitments such as shopping and child care. Other groups, such as the elderly or the disabled suffer when they are distance

1 Based on the relationship of traffic speed and fuel consumption in Bowyer, Akcelik and Biggs, 1985 (120 ml for 30 km/hr average speed, 113 ml for 75 km/hr), 12,000 daily trips and a 47% diversion of these road-based trips to rail (as in Airport Link Association, 1993). This translates into 3,895 reduction in road vehicles each day (12,000 daily trips X 47% X (16% private vehicles/1.2 occupants+ 29% buses/40 occupants+ 55% taxi/1 occupant), travelling 10 kilometres to the airport, at 120 ml avoided fuel consumption, or a total of 4,674litres per day at 30 kilometres per hour.

-73- from goods and services without adequate public transport" (Commonwealth of Australia, 1991).

It further recognises that:

" ... in the urban environment, residents of locations that have relatively poor accessibility, where public transport route coverage is limited and services infrequent, and where residents do not have access to private transport, or, for low income households, when costs of that private transport occupy a disproportionate share of household income, are generally described as 'locationally disadvantaged'. The relative ease and costs of accessing employment, health and social services, and recreational opportunities varies with location and also with income" (ibid).

Traditional transport modelling, according to Healey (1977), "considers little more than long-term, high capital intensity, transport solutions". Further: " ... in many situations, these may be least efficient: For example, the position o( the transport disadvantaged may best be dealt with by low capital use solutions, such as bus priority measures, or integrated solutions in which these measures would be interim in a longer term activity to relieve the bases of disadvantage (e.g. low income)" (ibid).

What these traditional models lack are indications of transport accessibility. Measures of accessibility are based on the time, relative discomfort and financial costs to reach desired goods, services and activities (Victoria Transport Policy Institute, 2002). They include not only the number of trips, but also consideration of the quality of available transport choices, the di_stance to destinations and generalised costs per trip. If an accessibility index is calculated, such as the one developed to evaluate how well a roadway connects destinations (Ewing, 1996), the addition of a rail link in the simple 1 model of CBD-airport traffic increases the interconnectivity index from 0.5 to 1.0 • (A higher index means that travellers have increased accessibility through increased route choice.) However, the accessibility index does not consider equity impacts. The affect on specific social groups, such as low-income earners, could also be analysed. But as Litman (1999, p. 3) pointed out, how transport is measured and users are grouped affects equity analysis (see Figure 3.8).

The base model could also be enhanced with classification of individual travel demand into categories, such as income, gender, age, automobile ownership and trip purpose. Separation into these categories would then become the basis for additional analysis of the effects of the transport system on specific groups.

Which groups should receive special treatment is not a product of either the base model, or the enhanced model. It is assumed that those issues would be resolved through the consultative or other political processes, and are exogenous to the modelling process.

1 The interconnectivity index is calculated the dividing the number of transport links by the number of nodes. Pre-rail link, this is 1 link divided by 2 nodes; post-raillink, it is 2 links divided by two nodes.

-74- Table 3.8 Equity Implications of Different Transportation Evaluation Criteria

Unit Description Equity Implications Cost recovery Transport investments are evaluated Favours wealthier travellers, according to whether users will repay the because they have greater costs. ability and willingness to pay. Benefits provided in Transport investments are evaluated Favours wealthier residents proportion to payment according to the taxes or special charges because they pay a greater paid by users. share oftaxes. Congestion Transport investments are evaluated Favours people who most (V/C ratio, vehicle delay) according to which investment provides often drive on congested the greatest congestion reduction at the roads over people who lowest cost. seldom use such facilities. Passenger miles travelled Transport investments are evaluated Favours people who travel (PMT) according to where increased person more than average. travel demand can be accommodated at the lowest costs. Passenger trips Transport investments are evaluated Favours people who take according to where increased person trips more than average number can be accommodated at the lowest of trips, by any means. costs. Access Transport investments are evaluated Favours people who according to where improved access can "access" more than average. be accommodated at the lowest cost. Mobility need Transport investments are evaluated Favours people who have according to where disadvantaged the greatest unmet travel people's needs are the greatest. needs. (Source: Litman, 1999, Table 1, p. 3)

3.2.3.3 Constraints and Opportunities There are constraints and opporttmities inherent in the balance between m1mmum efficient system activity and maximum accessibility. These relate to the physical and fiscal aspects of transport systems.

Some of the limits of the existing transport system are included in the base model of city to airport traffic. However, there are also limits to the physical transport system that have not been included - in particular those at trip origins or destinations. Limits on carparking in the city or at the airport are examples physical limits that have not been included. For example, if carparking were severely limited at the airport, additional passenger demand could be expected on public transpmt. The utilities used in the base model presumably factor in the current availability of parking spaces, but route 1 demand could be constrained by placing further limits on the amount of parking available at the airport. In modelling terms, this could be achieved by inserting a dummy link with the capacity of the car park at the airport site.

Traffic demand management measures can change the outcome of the static base model. An enhanced model would include the ability to assess these measures iteratively. It should be noted that demand management can be undertaken with environmental goals in mind. As noted by the Bureau of Transport Economics (1998, p. 51) integrated transport/land-use models can be used for to assess the implications of (externally

-75- determined) policy changes. For example, the imposition of emission standards imply a limit on the number of vehicles allowed to travel route 1 or route 2, which can also be modelled using the environmental capacity approach (Holdsworth and Singleton, 1980; Song, et al, 1993; Shirran and Hidas, 1996; Martins and Santos, 1997; O'Flaherty, 1997; lgnaccolo, 2000; Golzar and Black, 2002).

Limits on the funding available for investment in additional transport infrastructure will also impact on transport system model specifications and outcomes. It also leads to examination of alternative sources of funding, such as private sector involvement. Responsibility for design and construction, construction funds, arrangement of financing, ownership of project assets, operation of facilities and sources of project revenue (Finnerty, 1995, p. 195) can significantly alter the form and outcomes of proposed transport links.

3.2.3.4 Management Issues 3.2.3.4.1 Transport and Information Systems Sjostedt (1995) notes the structural similarities between transport and information systems. This is illustrated in Figure 3.1. According to Sjostedt, "communication signifies exchange of knowledge between living organisms and is equivalent to movement". If this is the case, then transport systems and information systems may be productively considered together. An example of how this might occur is considering additional future transport system capacity in relation to predictions of the level of telecommuting as replacements for journey to work trips.

carrier I

'--- vehicle 1\ I 1\ info infrastructure I I I ~ 1/ person goods '- infrastructure '---

Figure 3.1 Structural Similarities of Transport and Information Systems (Source: Sjostedt, 1995) Because of these fundamental structural similarities, there are also potential benefits, such as others' use existing transport infrastructure for other purposes (for example, use of transport rights of way for other utilities, e.g. pipelines, fibre optic cabling).

3.2.3.4.2 Risk Risk can also be incorporated into the modelling process. In the case of environmental effects, this may take the form of an assessment of the range of possible environmental consequences and their likelihood. According to Rothengatter (1993 ), some of these risks cannot be described exactly or in monetary terms. Complete insurance is not possible for the external effects of transport. As a consequence, risk management must concentrate on diversification or prevention strategies.

-76- 3.2.3.4.3 Measures ofInformation The enhanced model shows where some information does not exist in the form that may be useful. Even if the information exists, it may not be in a form that can be incorporated into a model because of problems with measurement.

There are three basic types of measures that would be useful for incorporating broader environmental and social goals: 1. Narrative description of physical effects on transport system. 2. Trips or other appropriate transport system activity measures - the difference between user equilibrium and system optimisation, for example, may be appropriate to explore the system wide effect of treating all travellers equally versus allowing some travellers to be worse off in terms of travel time. 3. Monetary costs and benefits.

However, these measures do not explicitly include the trade-offs inherent in achievement of economic, social, transport network and environmental goals as they affect travellers on a transport link, and the transport mode, multi-modal transport network and community in which the transport link is located. Potential savings from provision of an additional rail transport link to the airport may include overall reductions in average travel times, as well as reduced vehicl~V kilometres travelled which result in reduced accidents and emissions. While these are not the only potential effects ofthe additional link, they are used for illustration and are shown in Table 3.9.

Potential travel time, accident and environmental savings can be expressed in monetary terms, and are shown in the column of economic benefits. Travel time savings result from both routes and are also shown in Table 3.9 as a potential cross modal saving. The social and environmental dimensions of reductions in accidents and reduced emissions are presented in a similar fashion. In this illustration, potential economic, social, cross modal and environmental savings are shown to be $217.9 million, $32.3 million, $4.3 million and $181.3 million, respectively.

These potential savings affect groups of different sizes. Table 3.9 shows the potential impact of these selected savings, scaled by the transport link, transport mode, multi modal transport network and the community as a whole.

-77- Table 3.9 Selected Potential Savings from Diversion to Rail Route, 2003 to 2028 Benefit Economic Social Cross modal Environ- mental Potential saving: Travel time1 $4.3 million $4.3 million Accidents2 $32.3 million $32.3 million Environment $181.3 million $181.3 million Totals $217.9 million $32.3 million $4.3 million $181.3 million Potential impact: 4 Link (3.7 m annual trips ) $59.03 $8.74 $1.16 $49.13 5 Mode (3.7 m annual trips ) $59.03 $8.74 $1.16 $49.13 6 Transport network (7 .9 m annual trips ) $27.74 $4.11 $0.54 $23.09 7 Community (3 m ) $72.62 $10.75 $1.42 $60.44

3.3 Justification of CBD-Airport Rail Link

The two route two zone analysis of transport can provide useful insights about justification of a rail link.

"Generally speaking, .. . any system which requires travellers to go to a station and wait for a departure is likely to provide worse service, at a higher cost, than automobile solutions. The exceptions are for airports which process many passengers oriented toward the central areas, and have congested road links and easy access to rail services. This is London/Gatwick, truly a rare example" (de Neufville, 1976).

Although there are other contemporary examples of potentially successful airport rail links (discussed in Chapters 4 and 5), the fact remains that in most cases, only a proportion of airport passengers travel between the airport and the city and this will vary from airport to airport and from city to city.

According to de N eufville, a common model of ground access to airports is based on three assumptions:

1 Based on 196.3 million trips for both road and rail routes (for city destinations from Airport Link Association, 1993, with 3.5% annual growth to 2013 and 1.3% annual growth thereafter to 2025) X 0.11 minutes average travel time reduction (difference between average travel times, ton, from Table 3.3 of improved road only (b) and improved road, plus rail (c)) X $11.87 average value of travel time per hour (value of average travel time from Roads and Traffic Authority, 1999) 2 Reduction in vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) of 645.2 million (as in Table 3.6 for mode shares using SP utilities) X 5 cents per VKT (Bray and Tisato, 1997). 3 Reduction of 645.2 million VK.Ts (as in Table 3.6 for mode shares using SP utilities) X 28.1 cents per VKT (Bray and Tisato, 1997) 4 This is average annual CBD-airport trips X 47% diversion to rail mode (Airport Link Association, 1993) 5 In this example the number of trips on the link and the mode are equal. 6 Average annual number of CBD-airport trips over 25 year period 7 3 million community population

-78- 1. many people want to go between the airport and the centre of the city, or at most a few locations; 2. air travellers value their time highly; and 3. congestion on the route to the airport requires special facilities for airport traffic.

These assumptions lead to the conclusion that a rail link to the airport may be justified. Possible reasons for building a CBD-airport rail link, which incorporate these assumptions (many of which have been discussed in the discussion of models for city to airport ground access), include: • external effects - road congestion relief; • rail network enhancement; • related land use changes; • trip time and service reliability; • environmental considerations; and • social objectives- accessibility to target groups.

3.3.1 Road Congestion Relief From the two route, two zone example, it can be seen that at least for trips to and from the city centre, rail could be a popular choice for airport ground access. However, the CBD-airport trips represent a relatively small proportion of total airport trips. The CBD airport trips from the Sydney rail linlc study comprise 3.25% of air passengers (excluding transit passengers). This does not appear to support the assumption that many people want to travel between the city centre and airport.

However, in the Sydney study, about 80% of all trips to the airport comprise car and taxi trips. Some of these road based trips would be substituted by rail based ones, reducing ground transport congestion in the vicinity of the airport. A reduction of about 15% to 16% in airport-generated (road-based) traffic was estimated as a result of the Sydney rail link (Masson and Wilson Pty Ltd, 1994). This reduction can be significant, if the road system suiTounding the airport is at, or nearing, its capacity.

Other alterations to the existing transport network might yield a larger overall benefit. For example, the average peak road speeds in the morning peak for the Canterbury LGA in Sydney are less with the introduction of a freeway than with a raillinlc to the airport (Sinclair Knight Buchanan, et al, 1992).

3.3.2 Rail Network Enhancement In the models above, the effects of enl1ancement to an existing rail system are not considered. Such benefits are likely under certain conditions. As with the road transport network, congestion on the existing rail system may be alleviated by the rail link to the airport by providing more capacity in parallel in the overall corridor. In addition to alleviating existing rail system bottlenecks, if the raillinlc to the airport connects to the existing system at two points it will enhance the rail network if it: • is easily accessible;

-79- • involves little or no interchange time; and • offers reliable services.

Transport network enhancements of this nature are canvassed in a recent report on future transport in Sydney (Warren Centre for Advanced Engineering, 2002), and makes system-wide recommendations to integrate and improve the quality of transport services, including: • increase service frequencies on all public transit routes; • make public transport services competitive with the private car (in terms of frequency, speed, convenience and safety); • improve transport interchanges to respond to passenger needs.

3.3.2.1 Related Land Use Changes An important aspect of transport development is corresponding development in the region between the two zones. This has been largely ignored in the base model above.

The connection between land values and the provision of transport infrastructure is well known. The effect of transport on land values occurs in two ways: 1. a change in the use of sites (for example, changing from residential to commercial use); and 2. an increase in the value of sites within the same category of use (for example, the value for residential property increasing).

What is not so obvious is causality. Whether transport provision precedes changed land uses and values or the other way around, or whether the relationship is simultaneous is not developed here (see Black et al, 2001). What is impmiant is that transport's effect on land uses should be included in decisions about infrastructure investment. Examples of transport and land value increases are given below.

The link between transport and land use has been known for some time. A 1963 study for the NSW Ministry of Transport on improved transport for Sydney's eastern and south eastern suburbs cited an increase in adjacent land-holdings as an important benefit of convenient transportation facilities: "In the case of rapid rail transit, the improved services are generally so substantial as to result in almost dramatic development of new housing and commercial buildings" (DeLeuw, Cather and Co, 1963).

After the introduction of the Mass Transit Railway in Hong Kong from 1967 to 1985, there was an increase inland values (measured as increases in rents and land prices) for adjacent land. These increases were above the general trend for Hong Kong in the same period (Williams, 1989).

The introduction of the Bay Area Rapid Transit System (BART) in the San Francisco Bay Area of the USA in 1973 was hoped to encourage compact and orderly metropolitan growth. An initial study of BART conducted a few years after its opening

- 80- concluded that the BART system had a fairly modest influence on metropolitan growth and land-use. Similar conclusions were drawn in a study conducted 20 years after services started (Cervero and Landis, 1997).

There has also been growing community concern about the sustainability of transport systems and land use patterns, and how transport in major cities can be integrated with urban planning and communications (Warren Centre for Advanced Engineering, 2002). The "integrative approaches" (Newman, 2001, pp. 7-8) needed to provide sustainable cities, transport and land use are in their infancy. This is illustrated by practical difficulties in including land use and value effects in this type of modelling analysis. The timing and amounts of these changes are often difficult to predict.

3.3.2.2 Trip Time and Service Reliability Key considerations in ground access to the airport are trip times and the reliability of available transport. Not only average trip times, but also their potential variability, need to be analysed. According to one source, passengers are about twice as sensitive to the cost of the airport access trip as to its speed (de Neufville, 1976). The models for airport access above consider the value of time for individuals travelling to the airport. Service reliability is not specifically considered, although it could be argued that it is implicit in the individual choices made.

3.3.2.3 Environmental Considerations Environmental goals may include a higher mode split to public transport for airport ground access. The planners for Manchester Airport (Swanson and Congdon, 1993) cite this goal. The specific goal for Manchester Airport is to increase public transport mode share from about 11% (more than half of this amount is for "charter coaches") to 25% by 2005. The assumption here is that a larger share of airport access trips made by public transport is more "environmentally friendly". The nature and extent of reductions in road based traffic and corresponding increases in rail based traffic are not always easy to ascertain and will vary. At seven California airports, mode use patterns were found to vary significantly throughout the year (Gosling, 1996), with the potential result of varying impacts of airport-generated traffic on surrounding streets and highways and their accompanying level of emissions.

Environmental legislation may apply. For Sydney, a rail link to the airport is covered under State and Commonwealth legislation. Most environmental laws are have been made by the State government, although there is growing recognition of the need for national environmental laws. The New South Wales Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 provides a comprehensive framework to assess the environmental impact of development proposals, and must include: • an analysis of any feasible alternatives; • a detailed description of the likely impacts on the environment; and • the justification for the development, having regard to the principles of ecologically sustainable development.

However, there may be a conflict between Federal and State laws, in which case the Commonwealth laws override those ofNSW:

- 81- "An example of this was provided in the 'Third Runway Case', Botany MC v Federal Airports Corporation (unreported, High Court of Australia, 28 October 1992). In that case, the Court decided that the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 (NSW) did not apply to the Federal Airports Corporation [who operated the airport in Sydney] because it was inconsistent with the Federal Airports Corporation Act 1986 (Cth) and the Environment Protection (Impact of Proposals) Act 1974 (Cth)" (National Environmental Defender's Office Network, 2001).

3.2.3.4 Social Objectives There is a need for a shift in focus from the isolated problem of access to airports in this instance to a lin1c (the ground lin1c) in a seamless, intermodal trip (Lacombe, 1994). Analysis of investment in transport infrastructure should be focused on overall transport system activity and accessibility, rather than mode-specific infrastructure.

With the focus on transport system activity and accessibility, it becomes relatively easy to sort journeys by the various social groups undertaking them. Analysis of the travel patterns of specific socio-economic groups can then be analysed and specific support given where it is deemed to be desirable. 3.4 Summary

The connections between the physical characteristics of transport links, individual travellers' preferences, and the effects on the communities in which they operate to date have been included in transport investment decisions, but not always explicitly or uniformly. The simplified model of city to airport transport highlights some of the conceptual gaps between: • transport system performance and individuals' choices about travel; and • transport infrastructure provision and its effects on: accessibility to transport for particular groups, and the broader community.

The impacts of infrastructure investment decisions affect increasingly large groups: • travellers on the transport link; • travellers on the mode-specific network (the road and rail routes in the model); • travellers on the regional, multi-modal transport network; and • the community as a whole.

While social and environmental goals can (and have) been included in prior transport investment decisions, their inclusion does not always recognise the need for a systematic balance between the impacts on the groups identified above. In order to do this, public decision-malcers need to "think across disciplines" (Newman, 2001, p. 7).

Figure 3.2 illustrates some of the potential impacts of transport investment decisions that have been discussed in this chapter and the groups that they affect. The pervasiveness of the transport impact and potential size of the group affected are

-82- indicated by the arrow. The impacts near the top are likely to be less pervasive than the impacts near the bottom. Similarly, the groups near the top are likely to be smaller than the groups near the bottom. The relationships between impacts and groups are not necessarily shown horizontally; for example, accessibility to transport is likely to affect all prospective travellers and may indirectly affect the entire community.

Impact Pervasiveness of impact/ Affected group Size of group affected

Generalised travel costs Travellers on transport link

Transport reliability Travellers on transport mode

Accessibility to transport

Travellers on (multi-modal) network Transpmt-related accidents

Environmental impacts, e.g. noise, air Members of community pollution, greenhouse gases

Figure 3.2 Impacts of Transport Investment Decisions and Groups Affected

As demonstrated in the enhanced two route, two zone model of city to airport traffic, there are potentially positive impacts from diversion of traffic to the rail route, particularly for the largest group of affected parties (members of the community as shown in Figure 3.2). We have also theorised that efficient and effective provision of transport achieves a balance between minimum efficient transport system activity and maximum accessibility.

Actual transport investment in infrastructure may support these conclusions. Because they connect two different transport mode systems, CBD-airport rail links are believed to an area where the benefits of improved multi-modal transport system activity and overall transport accessibility would be particularly apparent.

However, there is little published information about such transport links. In the next chapter, the characteristics of current CBD-airport rail links worldwide will be surveyed. This empirical information will be used to develop conclusions about the nature of these transport links and what they might contribute to the multi-modal transport network of which they are a part.

- 83- 4 SURVEY OF CBD TO AIRPORT RAIL LINKS 4.1 Introduction Current decision-making frameworks that can be applied to transport investment evaluation are deficient in terms of their abilities to systematically consider the economic, social, environmental and intermodal dimensions of these decisions. In addition, there are an increasingly large number of "publics" that are concerned with transport investment - travellers directly affected by the investment, travellers not directly affected but using the same transport mode, travellers in the multi modal transport network and the entire community in which the transport network operates. Prior decisions about transport have been mainly focused on a particular transport mode or facilitated by particular governmental institutions. The way in which decisions are made may have a bias towards physical solutions, collective wealth maximisation, risk minimisation, or specific land-use or environmental goals. To add to these potential difficulties in practice, there are gaps between what has been defined as an optimal multi modal transport network and the characteristics of its traffic flows on one hand, and prospective travellers' preferences and actual traffic flows on the other.

In order to use CBD-airport rail links to develop and demonstrate an alternative decision-making framework for transport investment, the particular characteristics of these links need to be understood. A two-part survey of such links was undertaken and is described in this and the following chapter. This information was augmented and/or updated through use of secondary sources, including Internet sites containing airport information, rail timetables, as well as maps and diagrams showing spatial relationships 1 between CBDs and airports •

The first part of the survey is covered in this chapter. The following sections explore airport ground transport as a "missing linlc" between terrestrial and air transport networks and set out the rationale for the survey of CBD-airport links. The development and implementation of the survey are then described. Finally, results from the first part of the survey are analysed.

4.2 Rationale Ground access to airports is a matter of increasing significance. In Australia, the number of passenger movements has grown 5. 8% annually on average in the ten years from 1987/88 to 1997/98 (Department of Transport and Regional Services, 2000). In Sydney, air passengers have grown 6.7% annually on average in the same period (ibid.). This is illustrated in Figure 4.1, showing domestic, international and regional air passengers in Sydney.

More people travel by air and travel further, but airport access itself is provided "piecemeal" (Nijkamp, Vleigel, Maggi, Masser, 1994, p. 71). Infrastructure for airport

1 Relevant CBD-airport link web sites are shown in Appendix E. The syntax for all link names is city name-airport name (airport code), or city name-airport code. Airport codes are three letter lATA codes, except for Southend Airport whose code was taken from its web site.

- 84- ground access varies, and each transport mode tends to be viewed independently by transport planners.

14.0 12.0 ...... , ,., ... Iii [iii ~ 10.0 "" ,1 8.0 g 1iiil ~ ;) "' g), 6.0 ""'""' ~ ffi "' 4.0 ro~ c.. 2.0

0.0

international "" ""' domestic regional!

Figure 4.1 Sydney International, Domestic and Regional Airport Passengers, 1987/88 to 1997/98

(Source: Department of Transport and Regional Services, 2000)

In Sydney, although transport infrastructure that would provide ground access to the airport has been investigated from time to time, it has been in the context of long term plans for a particular transport mode. The Sydney Area Transportation Study of 1974 (NSW Ministry of Transport, 1974) canvassed transport needs for the entire Sydney metropolitan region up to the year 2000. This $600 million program (in Australian dollars of the day) for redevelopment of every form of public transport in and around Sydney proposed that approximately half of these funds for a massive road building effort. It included a notional provision for rail access to the airport. A "Southern Suburbs Line" was proposed in the Sydney Area Transportation Study that would connect Redfern Station with a new station at Gardeners Road in Mascot. Airport ground access by rail was indicated by a dotted line that connected the proposed Gardeners Road Station to Cooks River on the western boundary ofthe airport precinct.

It was not until the late 1980s and early 1990s that airport ground access was examined as an explicit part of Sydney Airport's planning strategy (Sinclair Knight and Partners, 1990). At that time, rail access was thought to be highly desirable, but not viable financially.

This is despite the fact that air transport systems are more appropriately described as a system of overlapping networks. They comprise multi-airport systems, which are a set of airports that serve the airline traffic of a metropolitan area (de Neufville, 1995, p. 2; Montiero and Hansen, 1996); as well as regional ground transport networks, which either serve as feeder systems for airports or provide direct links between them. This larger, multi-modal system is illustrated in Figure 4.2.

- 85- 1--:irpo:--J [ city centre 1~ L.·---~ ·----·1

J ground traffic I c._orridor I

Figure 4.2 Multi Modal Transport System

(Source: N ijkamp, eta/, 1994, p.70)

The multi-modal transport system is thre -dimensional. Airport precincts and air traffic corridors represented by the heavier line in Figure 4.2 overlay city centres and ground traffic corridors.

Increasing air traffic congestion has caused increasing interest in high-speed rail as a more environmentally friendly mode for shorter distance flights: 'Given access costs (including such things as road traffic congestion) to airports, direct high speed rail services between major origins and de tinations often offer a more socially efficient means of transport than air for journeys of up to 200 to 250 miles' (Nijkamp, eta! 1994 p. 71).

The trade offs between the economic, social and environmental costs of airport facilitie and fast railway transport are of increasing interest, particularly in Europe.

As can be seen in Figure 4.2, transport from the city to the airport is an integral part of this larger, multi-modal transport network. The major modes for ground transport are road based. Table 4.1, for example shows that of 74 North American CBD-airport ground transport links, only 16% offer rail transport from the city centre to the airport (Rand McNally, 1994). This list is not exhaustive. A more recent source on airport rail links (International Air Rail Association 2003) suggests at least four additional rail links in North America (in the cities of Los Angeles, Miami, Portland, and San Jose). Nevertheless, road based modes still dominate the public transport market.

- 86- Table 4.1 Airport Ground Access to CBD in North American Cities City-airport code Airport- Public transport modes CBD kms taxi bus* limou- rail sine* Albany-ALB 15 y y y Albuquerque-ABQ 13 y y y Anchorage-ANC 10 y y y Atlanta-ATL 13 y y y Austin-ASA 13 y y y Baltimore-BWI 17 y y y Baton Rouge-BTR 12 y y Birmingham-BHM 8 y y y Boston-BOS 5 y y y Buffalo-BUF 18 y y Calgary-YYC 17 y y y Charleston-CBS 20 y y y Charlotte-CLT 17 y Chicago-MDW 17 y y y Chicago-ORD 32 y y y y Cincinnati-CVG 22 y y Cleveland-CLE 20 y y y Columbus-GTR 13 y y Dallas-Fort Worth-DAL 28 y y Denver-DEN 33 y y y Detroit-DTW 32 y Edmonton-YEG 30 y y El Paso-ELP 13 y y Hartford-BDL 22 y y Honolulu-HNL 15 y y Houston-EFD 33 y y y Indianapolis-IND 13 y y J acksonville-JAK 25 y y Kansas City MO-MCI 30 y y Las Vegas-LAS 13 y y Los Angeles-LAX 28 y y y Louisville-SD F 8 y y y Memphis-MEM 17 y y Miami-MIA 8 y y Milwaukee-MKE 13 y y y Minneapolis-St Paul- 13 y y y MSP Montreal-DOR 23 y y Nashville-BNA 12 y y y

- 87- Table 4.1 (continued) Airport Ground Access to CBD in North American Cities City-airport code Airport- Public transport modes CBD kms taxi bus* limou- rail sine* New Orleans-MSY 18 y y y New York- La Guardia- 13 y y LGA NewYork-EWR 17 y y NewYork-JFK 25 y y y y Norfolk-ORF 17 y y y Oakland-OAK 13 y y y Oklahoma City-OKC 17 y y Omaha-OMA 5 y y y Orlando-ORL 25 y y y Philadelphia-PHL 13 y y y Phoenix-PHX 7 y y y Pittsburgh-PIT 28 y y Portland-PDX 15 y y Providence-PVD 15 y y Raleigh-RDU 25 y y Richmond-RVC 17 y y Rochester-ROC 10 y y Sacramento-SMF 20 y y St Louis-STL 25 y y y Salt Lake City-SLC 10 y y y San Antonio-SAT 13 y y San Diego-SAN 5 y y San Jose-SJC 8 y y Seattle-LKE 23 y y y Spokane-GEG 8 y y Tampa-TPA 8 y y y Toronto-YTE 30 y y y Tucson-TUS 17 y y y Tulsa-TUL 13 y y Vancouver-YVR 18 y y Washington-BWI 37 y y y Washington-lAD 43 y y Washington-DCA 5 y y y Winston-Salem-INT 32 y y y *There may be a problem with the definitions of bus and limousine access, with special bus services being defined as limousines. (Source: Rand McNally, 1994)

- 88- Rail based transport linking cities and air terminals has the potential to augment existing road and air transport networks, offering congestion relief on established links. To date, there has been no comprehensive survey of all CBD-airport rail links. An airport ground access workshop conducted on the Internet (Transportation Research Board, 1998) cited a lack of comparative studies and accepted criteria to enable identification of best practices in airport access. This is addressed by undertaking a survey of such links worldwide. This survey is now described.

4.3 Questionnaire Development A postal survey was chosen because it is a cost-effective method that can reach potential respondents who are geographically dispersed, allows them to consider their replies, and may elicit responses from people who are too busy for personal interviews (Linksy, 1985, p. 82). However, a major difficulty with postal surveys is that response rates are typically low, potentially resulting in sampling bias (Richardson, 1982, p. 145). Actions to increase the response rate for a postal survey include: • use of follow up reminder letters after the survey is sent out; • sponsorship of survey from a well-known and respected group or individual; • subject matter of the survey and having a direct relationship to the population being surveyed; • questionnaire length - in general, the response rate is inversely related to the length of the questionnaire; • use of a comments section in the questionnaire to allow respondents to air their views on a subject; • covering letter to increase response rate and understanding of the questions asked; and • provision of a stamped, self-addressed envelope for return of completed surveys.

The two-stage questionnaire was formulated following a pilot survey of the draft instrument. A list of questions about CBD-airport rail access was prepared and discussed with a panel of consultants, academics and railway operators in Sydney. The majority of panel members had a direct involvement in the development of such a rail lin1<: from the Sydney CBD to Sydney (Kingsford Smith) Airport. Four broad topics were discussed: 1. factors considered in the decision to provide rail access from the city to the airport; 2. sources of funds for construction; 3. information on CBD-airport links; and 4. possible critical success factors for CBD-airport rail links.

The questions discussed are shown in Appendix A.

- 89- From these discussions, an overall strategy for gathering primary data for empirical CBD-airport rail links was developed. This strategy included a two-stage questionnaire addressed to railway operators and to airport authorities, augmented by information from secondary sources. The survey described below is the first stage of this survey process, which concentrated on CBD-airport rail link characteristics (fares, frequencies, travel times, route distances, and so on). The second stage (covered in Chapter 5) explored how the investment decision was made, sources of funds for construction and operation, and the factors considered important for a link to be successful.

4.4 Survey Administration Surveys were posted to railway and airport operators for 59 central business district (CBD) to airport rail links. These links were identified from Jane's World Railways (Abbott, 1993), Jane's Urban Transport Systems (Bushell, 1994) and a book for travellers on how to get from the airport to the city (Crampton, 1989). Only those links identified as existing, or under construction, were surveyed. Railway operators and airport operators received different questionnaires. A list of identified CBD-airport links 2 is attached (Appendix B) • Railway and airport operator questionnaires are attached as Appendix C. The total number of questionnaires mailed out was 118.

4.4.1 General Statistics Of the 118 questionnaires sent out, 59 responses were received. This is a 50 per cent response rate. In addition to this number, responses indicated additional construction (underway or proposed) on the Dusseldorf-Dusseldorf (DUS), London-Heathrow (LHR) and New York-JFK (JFK) links, as well as a Zurich-Zurich (ZRH) link that had not been identified for the survey. Also not included in the 59 responses are five questionnaires that were returned "addressee unknown" (those directed to airport operators for Amsterdam-Schiphol (AMS), Barcelona-Prat (BCN), Munich-Munich (MUC), Paris Roissy CDG (CDG), Tokyo-Haneda (HND), and Tunis-Cherguin II (TUN)).

Of the 59 responses, 4 replies indicated that there is no city to airport rail link and 2 respondents did not include a completed survey form. The 53 returned questionnaires are comprised of about 59% railway operators and about 41% airport operators. This is an acceptable response for this type of survey. It is about average for postal survey responses, and appears to represent CBD to airport rail link population characteristics.

Both railway and airport questionnaires were received for the following 11 CBD-airport links: • Baltimore-Baltimore Washington International Airport (BWI); • Berlin-Schonefeld Airport (SXF); • Birmingham-Birmingham International Airport (BHX); • Cleveland-Cleveland International Airport (CLE);

2 Appendix B has been updated to include airport rail links from the International Air Rail Organisation's website, "Airport Railways of the World", www.airportrailwaysoftheworld.com/arc_en.shtml, access date 25 May 2003. This site was not available at the time the surveys were conducted.

- 90- • Dusseldorf-Dusseldorf Airport (DUS); • Geneva-Cointrin International Airport (GVA); • London-London City Airport (LCY); • Malaga-Malaga Airport (AGP); • Paris-Roissy Charles De Gaulle Airport (CDG); • Paris-Orly Airport (ORY); and • Tokyo-Narita (NRT).

Of the responses received, the locations of the city to airport rail links, identified at the time of the survey as either operating or under construction, are: • 24 (52%) from Europe; • 16 (35%) from North America; • 4 (9%) from Asia; • 1 (2%) from South America; and • 1 (2%) from Central America.

These links are shown in Table 4.2.

4.4.2 Sample Size and Response Rates The questionnaire was sent out with a covering letter to airport and railway operators. Where known, the survey was addressed to a particular individual or position in the organisation. Table 4.3 compares response rates for postal questionnaires with and without personalised covering letters (Linsky, 1975, p. 93). We would anticipate a possible response of 26% to 46% for surveys with personalised covering letters and 21% for non-personalised. In fact, for a sample of 59 we observed 53% and 37% response rates for personalised and non-personalised covering letters respectively.

As noted above, more railways than airport operators responded to the questionnaire. Railway contacts were primarily taken from Jane's Railways (Bushell, 1994), which gives information on contact names and titles. In this way, railway operators' questionnaires were "personalised". Airport operator questionnaires, on the other hand, were addressed to the chief operating officer at each identified airport, and this may explain the lower response rate.

4.4.3 Respondent and Population Characteristics The question arises whether respondents have different characteristics than those who did not respond to the survey. According to Richardson (1982, p. 149), if non respondents are similar to survey respondents, non-response bias should be minimal.

The similarity between the geographical location of respondents and the identified population is illustrated in Figure 4.3. The distance from the CBD to the airport for links identified for the survey is shown in Figure 4.4. These CBD-airport rail link distances

- 91 - distances are from survey responses and distance information from secondary sources. Both figures show that the proportions of respondents are fairly representative of all links surveyed. Table 4.2 CBD"Airport Links, Identified as Operating or Under Construction at Time of Survey

EUROPE NORTH AMERICA • Amsterdam-Schiphol (AMS) • Atlanta-Hartsfield Atlanta (ATL} • Barcelona-EI Prat (BCN)* • Baltimore-Baltimore Washington • Berlin-Schonefeld (SFX) International (BWI) • Berlin-Tegel {TXL} • Boston-Boston Logan (BOS) • Berlin-Tempelhof (THF) • Calgary-Calgary (YYC)** • Birmingham-Birmingham (BHX) • Chicago-Midway (MOW) • Bremen-Bremen (BRE) • Chicago-O'Hare (ORO) • Brussels-Brussels (BRU) • Cleveland-Hopkins (CLE) • Dusseldorf-Dusseldorf (DUS) • Montreai-Dorval (YUL)** • Frankfurt-Frankfurt (FRA)* • Newark-Newark International (EWR) • Geneva-Cointrin (GVA) • New York-JFK (JFK) • Glasgow-Prestwick (PIK) • New York-Westchester County (HPN)** • London-Gatwick (LGW)* • Oakland-Oakland (OAK)* • London-Heathrow (LHR) • Philadelphia-Philadelphia (PHL) • London-London City (LCY) • San Francisco-Oakland (OAK) • London-Southend (EGMC)* • San Francisco-San Francisco (SFO) • London-Stansted (STN) • St Louis-St Louis Lambert (STL} • Malaga-Malaga (AGP) • Toronto-Lester B Pearson (YYZ)** • Manchester-Manchester (MAN) • Washington-Dulles (lAD)* • Milan-Malpensa (MXP) • Washington-Washington National (DCA) • Moscow-Domodedovo (DME)** • Moscow-Sheremetyevo (SVO)** CENTRAL AMERICA • Munich-Munich (MUC) • Mexico City-Mexico Juarez (MEX)* • Newcastle-Newcastle (NCL) • Paris-Roissy Charles De Gaulle (COG) ASIA • Paris-Orly (ORY) • Bangkok-Don Muang (BKK) • Rome-Fiumicino (FCO) • Hong Kong-Hong Kong (HKG) • St Petersburg-Leningrad Pulkovo (LED)* • Seoui-Kimpo (GMP) • Valencia-Valencia (VCL)* • Taipei-Taipei Shungsan (TSA)* • Vienna-Vienna (WIE) • Tokyo-Haneda (HND)* • Tokyo-Narita (NRT)

SOUTH AMERICA AFRICA • Porto Alegre-Porto Alegre (PGP) • Tunis-Cherguin II*

* No response received from rail operator or airport authority ** Response advised no current link nor link under construction

- 92- Table 4.3 Postal Survey Response Rates for Personalised and Non Personalised Covering Letters

study personalised (N) non (N) personalised Andreason (1970) 33.8% (154) 37.3% (185) 27.3% (176) N/A N/A Carpenter ( 1977) 72.2% N/A 64.3% N/A 66.0% N/A N/A N/A Frazier & Bird (1958) 34.3% (496) 27.9% (495) 26.4% (284) 19.2% (286) Kimball (1961) 33.8% (500) 34.8% (500) 26.8% (500) 26.0% (500) Longworth (1953) 26% (50) 21% (50) Linsky (1965) 40.4% (456) 32.0% (456) Moore (1941) 62.2% (238) 52.7% (257) Simon (1967) 53% (100) 38% (874) 28% (50) 26% (450) 46% (50) 38% (450) 52% (120) 59% (120) 60% (100) 53% (100) Watson (1965) 28% (501) 30% (998) Weilbacher & Walsh 40.8% (211) 45.6% (215) (1952) (Source: Linsky, 1975, Table 5, p. 93)

Not included in Figure 4.3 are five additional links, or increments of previously identified links, which were also reported by respondents. These links are included in Figure 4.4.

location

I• identified Osurvey response j

Figure 4.3 CBD to Airport Links by Location

- 93- distance !• identified Clsurvey response I

Figure 4.4 CBD - Airport Links: Proportion by Distance Band

4.4.4 Definition of CBD-Airport Link The definition of a CBD-airport rail link is ambiguous from the secondary information consulted. There are two elements to such a link. First, the rail infrastructure connecting a city centre with an air terminal must exist. Second, train services must be offered that allow passengers to alight and exit at the city centre and the airport.

Whilst the rail infrastructure could in most cases be identified from Jane 's Urban Transport Systems (Bushell, 1994) or Jane 's World Railways (Abbott, 1993), the distance from the rail station to the airport terminal varies from stations located in the airport terminal itself (e.g., Chicago-ORD, Cleveland-CLE, London-STN, and Tokyo NRT), to bus services from the airport rail station to the airport (as in 12 of the originally identified links). These bus services range from free, frequent shuttle buses covering a short distance, to less frequent buses over longer distances with an additional fare.

For the purposes of further discussion, CBD airport rail links will be defined as those links which have airport rail stations within walking distance (800 metres or less) to the airport terminal, or which offer free shuttle bus services from the airport rail station to the airport terminal. Examples include Atlanta-ATL, Chicago-MDW, London-LGW, San Francisco-SFO and the spatial relationships between their respective rail stations and the airport. Passenger terminals are shown for illustrative purposes in Figures 4.5a, b, c and d.

- 94- Figure 4.5a Atlanta International Airport Terminal

(Source: Atlanta Airport, 2001)

Or ng L n to Do •1ntown

Figure 4.5b Midway Airport Terminal

(Source: Midway Airport, 2003)

- 95- Figure 4.5c Gatwick Airport Station

(Source: Gatwick Express, 2002)

Some airport rail stations are an integral part of airport terminal design. Atlanta (Figure 4.5a) is an example of this type of configuration. The rail station at Midway Airport is also close to air passenger terminals, and could be described as within walking distance to air passenger terminals (Figure 4.5b ). The express rail services to Gatwick Airport (Figure 4.5c) are a "convenient walk' (according to the survey response) to the South Terminal, and accessible by a shuttle service to the North Terminal. The Caltrain Shuttle (Figure 4.5d) between San Francisco International Airport and Millbrae Caltrain Station is a free service, scheduled to meet all trains to and from points south, with connections 3 to and from the north also possible .

Some CBD-airport links that were identified as operating services were not ( eg. Moscow, Montreal). Other responses to the survey described links, or portions of links, which were previously unidentified. These five previously unidentified links are: 1. Zurich-ZRH operating services since 1980; 2. a proposed link from Glasgow Central railway station to the Main Passenger Terminal at Glasgow International Airport (GLA);

3 Figure 4.10 (later in this chapter) shows a link from San Francisco to San Francisco Airport (SFO) from the BART terminal at Colma is also possible.

- 96- 3. an express rail link, then under construction and now completed, from London's Paddington railway station to the British Airways terminal at Heathrow (LHR); 4. a proposed automated guideway transit system from New York City Transit's Howard Beach Station, 5 kilometres to the British Airways Terminal at JFK International airport; and 5. a planned shuttle rail link from the airport station on the Dusseldorf-Duisburg railway main line, 2.5 kilometres to Dusseldorf (Rhein-Ruhr) Airport terminals A,B and C.

IRPOIRT

Figure 4.5d Caltrain Shuttle at San Francisco International Airport (Source: Caltrain, 2001)

The first three items of the list above are additional CBD-airport links. The remaining two items are more accurately defined as increments to a previously identified link.

The links in the survey response have commenced operations from 1920 onwards, with the majority commencing operations in the past two decades. They are listed in Table 4.4.

- 97- Table 4.4 Operating CBD-Airport Links: Responses to Survey by Opening Year OPERATING • Boston-BOS 1920 • Berlin-THF 1923 • New York-JFK 1958 • Brussels-BRU 1960 • Cleveland-CLE 1968 • Berlin-TXL 1974 • Malaga-AGP 1974 • Berlin-SXF 1976 • Birmingham-BHX 1976 • Paris-CDG 1976 • London-LHR 1977 • Washington-DCA 1977 ! • Vienna-WIE 1978 .. Zurich-ZRH 1980 • Mexico City-MEX 1981 • Philadelphia-PHL 1985 • Porto Alegre-PGP 1985 • Geneva-GVA 1987 • Rome-FCO 1990 London-STN 1991 ! • f • Paris-ORY 1991 • Chicago-ORD 1993 • Manchester-MAN 1993 • St Louis-STL 1993 • Glasgow-PH< 1994 • London-LCY 1995 • Seoul-GMP 1995 • Atlanta-ATL 1996 • Baltimore-BWI 1997 • Hong Kong-HKG 1998 • London-LHR * 1998 • Milan-MXP 1998 : New York-JFK** 2000 i .

OPERATING- no opening date known • Amsterdam-AMS • Munich-MUC Bangkok-BKK • Newark-EWR • Barcelona-SRI • Newcastle upon Tyne-NCL • Bremen-BRE • Oakland-OAK • Chicago-MDW • San Francisco-SFO Ir • Dusseldorf-DUS • St Petersburgh-LED • Frankfurt-FRA *** • Taipei-TSA *** • Glasgow- GLA • Tokyo-HND *** • London-LGW • Tokyo-NRT • London-EGMC • Valencia-VCL • Moscow-DME?

* Paddington to Heathrow Terminal 4 ** Howard Beach Station to British Airways terminal *** No survey response received, but an existing link, according to International Air Rail Organisation, 2003 ? Indicated as an existing link by International Air Rail Organisation, 2003

- 98- It is possible that the increasing number of rail links between city centres and airports are a result of increasing congestion on road based transport links. This is discussed in the following section.

4.5 Analysis Information on existing CBD to airport rail links can be used to draw some conclusions about which factors are needed for a link of this type to be successful. The analysis presented here is conducted with that eventual goal in mind. Tentative factors from this analysis will be refined through the second empirical survey of airport and rail operators, as well as through an in depth examination of case studies. The second survey will ask respondents to rank critical success factors in order of perceived importance, as well as attempt to identify criteria used for CBD-airport rail link investment decisions. Geographically, the CBD-airport rail links identified for this survey are mainly concentrated in Europe and North America. As indicated above, the respondents are also primarily from these continents. This concentration may be associated with the age of rail transport technology and the era in which urban areas in these continents developed, or population densities and wealth. The hypothesis of age of rail transport technology may be supported by the fact that the majority of rail links are no more than twenty years old. This is shown in Figure 4.6.

·e 40 t: 0 ...Q. 35 ...'i 30 ...0 25 1! .= E :§ 20 :I c 15 Gl 10 ;;> :;ftl 5 E :I 0 u 0 Cl) N CD N N N .., .., ~ ~ ~ ....0) ....0)"" ....0) ....0) ....0) ....0) ....0) ....0) opening year

Figure 4.6 Responses to Survey: Cumulative Number of CBD-Airport Links by Opening Year

On the other hand, the type of rail transport does not appear to be associated with the year when operations commenced. A combination of rail modes is used by 12.5% of rail operator respondents. Three quarters of the rail links responding to this survey are heavy rail. The remaining 12.5% of rail operator respondents are for light rail links. Distance from the city centre to the airport varies from 3 kilometres for Boston-Logan International (BOS) to 68 kilometres for Tokyo-Narita {NRT). The majority of responses (almost 70%) are for links of less than 20 kilometres. A graph of number of links by distance band is shown in Figure 4.7.

- 99- C/1 .:..10: .... 0 l!i ..c E :I c:

0 C/1 0 C/1 0 C/1 0 C/1 ~ C/1 oo;- E r-t E <"'? E .... E tr? E o-10: ::..10: NolO: ..,..10: • ..10:

Figure 4.7 CBD-Airport Links: Number by Distance Band

The distance of the CBD to the airport rail appears to be related to the age of the link, as illustrated in Figure 4.8.

80 70 •• - 60 r! ~ 50 ~ :§ .... 40 0 • • Gl 30 Cl It • 20 ...••• . . .. 10 •• • 0 • • • • • .... 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 CBD-airport distance (kms)

Figure 4.8 Existing CBD-Airport Rail Links by Length and Age

As Figure 4.8 illustrates, there is a likely connection between the age of the CBD-airport link and its length. A possible explanation is that the older a city is, the more likely it is that its airport will be located some distance away from the CBD.

4.5.1 Connectivity Many rail links are part of an existing rail network. Of 29 links that provided a response, 29 (69%) do not use special purpose rolling stock. The links that do, or plan to, use special purpose rolling stock commenced operations no earlier than 1991 (Paris-Orly (ORY), Hong Kong-Hong Kong (HKG)).

- 100 - The connection between number of air passengers and the presence of a rail link is not clear. There is a wide range of passenger numbers for responding airports. Annual airport passenger numbers range from 380,000 for London City Airport (LCY) to 66.5 million for Chicago-O'Hare (ORD) in 1994. A graph of number of air passengers by airport is shown in Figure 4.9.

All of the airports that responded handle international flights. It is reasonable to hypothesise that international air passenger traffic is a positive indicator for a rail transport linlc International passengers include a higher proportion of tourists, who may be more likely to use rail transport. Domestic terminals, on the other hand, would handle more local business people, who would tend to use taxis or their own private company cars.

4.5.2 Multiple Links Several cities of the CBD to airport rail links identified for the survey have multiple airport and city centre connections by rail transport. Of the respondents, the cities of Baltimore, Berlin, Chicago, Dusseldorf, Geneva, Glasgow, London, Manchester, Paris, New York (JFK, LaGuardia, Newark, White Plains), San Francisco (Oaldand, San Jose, San Francisco) and Tokyo fall into this category.

The San Francisco Bay Area regional map shown in Figure 4.10 shows access to San Francisco and Oakland airports. Public transit linlcs to San Francisco, Oaldand and San Jose airports include (San Francisco Bay Area Transit Information, 2001): • San Francisco International Airport (SFO) - free Caltrain shuttle to Millbrae Caltrain station; • Oaldand International Airport (OAK) - Air-BART direct shuttle to Coliseum/Airport BART station; and • San Jose International Airport (SJC)- free Santa Clara VTA service between the Metro/Airport LRT Station and Santa Clara Station, as well as a free shuttle between the airport and the Metro/Airport light rail station on weekdays.

- 101 - 70 r- 60

ll c;; 50 ~ c ~ 0 ~ I 40 ,__Vl Q) Cl c 30 Q) Vl Vl <0 a. 20 - - 1- - -

,-- 10 ~ 1---- 1---- 1- - 1- - -

0 r::ll Dl • f.l g I

airport

Figure 4.9 Annual Passengers by Airport 1994

- 102- This is consistent with the concept of a multi-modal transport system, as illustrated in Figure 4.1. Just as multiple airport systems have been recognised by de Neufville (1995, p. 2), multiple city airport rail links form part of a larger, regional transport network:

"The change to a functional, geographic definition of a metropolitan airport system results from worldwide changes in urban structure. The combined effect of population growth and the spread of rapid modes of transport such as expressways and high speed rail systems, has been to extend cities over much wider areas, merge cities into each other, and create metropolitan regions that function as a unit despite traditional boundaries '.

BART System Map

Danvile

San Rarron

~p!ICJI~...... ~ El ~ @Pieasanm - ~ - Frernont-OIIv City Union CltyG ==:::~ Fremont-Aichman =~ Pdnl- remontG ~ ~ - Dllyaty ~ Clpitol Corridor Half . tj mgton - C*trlln Moon " Wli1T1 G BART Plltdng Bay v Springs

Figure 4.10 BART Area Map, Showing Access to Airports at Sao Francisco and Oakland (Source: transitinfo.org, 2001)

As Figure 4.1 illustrates, the regional transport network comprises not only airports, but also ground access to these airports. In fact, the difference between air and ground based transport

- 103 - may not be as distinct to the transport market as it is a description of physical operating characteristics. One mode connects two nodes along the ground; the other mode connects two nodes in the air. To many passengers the functional difference between air and ground transport is not nearly as important (except, perhaps, for those who have a fear of flying) as other factors such as travel time, accessibility, cost, interchange, and other service "quality" factors for each mode.

Service qualities, such as cost, comfort and convenience, determine how many passengers will be attracted to a CBD to airport link (Sproule and Mandalapu, 1994). They underpin specific critical success factors, which are discussed below.

A new link in an existing transport network, when it offers similar or better service qualities, will enhance the rest of the network to a degree greater than itself That is,

transport system t 1 + new link < transport system t2

where the only change in the transport system at time t1 and time 12 is the addition of the new link. This effect is enhanced when the link enables greater interchange among modes in a multi modal transport system. In other words, it is more likely that a CBD-airport rail link will succeed if it is part of a larger, existing transport network. Such a linlc can be called a "meta link".

Some specific meta link examples are given below. Note that the figures illustrating these links are not drawn to scale.

• In Baltimore (Figure 4.11), there are direct rail services (Amtrak to Baltimore) from the airport to Penn Station in Baltimore and Washington's Union Station. These stations connect with Amtralc national rail services to other US cities. There are also light rail trains that leave frequently from the airport for Baltimore Penn Station, and there is a link to the airport from the Washington Metro at Greenbelt. i~;~~~;_f~tf :· .... 1 \ 1 I 6 \ ...... \ ...... Baltimore !r--· ... -·--·--- _, _____ ----- ~ CBD :1rail transport l 0 link 1 OHO"'"''""""""""""""''MOMO.. OO ..OOOH0>0'UU" ' Figure 4.11 Diagrammatic Representation of Baltimore- Washington Rail Transport • Travel time by rail from Birmingham International Airport to Birmingham's New Street Station averages 15 minutes by InterCity or local services and offers a convenient interchange for services to and from all parts of the United Kingdom (Figure 4.12).

- 104- Figure 4.12 Diagrammatic Representation of Birmingham Region Rail Transport

• More than 50% of all air passengers travelling from the city of Solingen, whether private or business travellers, make the journey to Dusseldorf Airport by rail (Figure 4.13). There are direct S Bahn services to Dusseldorf Airport from the regional cities of Dortmund, Essen, Duisburg and Solingen. In addition, there is a planned link between the neighbouring airports of Dusseldorf and Cologne/Bonn. According to the airport authority (Rhein - Ruhr Flughafen, undated, page 6), there is a new rail line under construction between Cologne/Bonn and the Rhine/Main area, with future ICE (InterCity Express) services stopping a both airport rail terminals.

:to Bremen Essen !

l"""""'"""'''·"""'""""""'l ,//0 Ito Bochum, lOuisburg ··· ... _/ 0 L~·~- ..... ·~·------·-· .. . portmund, ,...... , 0 1Hannover !Rhein-Ruhr :Airporti ...... ····"' ·--·--"'"""''''"''--"··-··"""'' Frankfurt I !Solingen IMain Dusseldorf oo . !Cologne I Bonn Cologne I 0 jAirport Rhein- Main 0 Airport Koblenz I 0 0 Mainz 0 0

Figure 4.13 Diagrammatic Representation of Dusseldorf & Cologne/Bonn Projected Rail Transport

- 105- • Newcastle Airport has an increasing number of passengers travelling from the Borders and Southern Scotland to fly from Newcastle during peak months, according to the airport authority, as well as people travelling from Cumbrian in the west and North Yorkshire (Newcastle International Airport, 1995, page 45). The catchment area for the airport is shown in Figure 4.13.

Rail access to the airport is via a light rail system, which directly links Newcastle city centre with the airport, as well as to the Tyne and Wear Metro, where train services connect with every main line British Rail station in the country (Newcastle International Airport, 1995, page 24). This figure shows the rural county of Northumberland in which it is located, but excludes the major urban areas that in practice are likely to provide the most traffic (such as the Tyne and Wear conurbation, Durham city).

Figure 4.14 Newcastle Airport Catchment Area (Source: ewcastle International Airport, 1994)

The effect of an additional link in a transport system can easily be seen when two very simple transport networks are compared, as in Figure 4.15. The simplest network is a link between two nodes, or network 1. Here, only two different trips are possible; one from zone A to zone B, and one from zone B to zone A.

- 106- 12 trips possible network 1 A-78 8-7A

6 trips possible .. A-78 8-7A network 2 8-7C C-78 A-7C C-7A

Figure 4.15 Comparison of Two Simple Transport Networks The addition of one more link from zone B to zone C, however, increases the total number of trips possible in the system by an amount greater than the number of trips possible on the link by itself. Network 2, with the addition of one link, now has a total of six different trips.

4.5.3 Critical Success Factors Desirability of a CBD-airport rail link, however, can be gauged by a comparison of mode specific factors. Some of the factors that are thought to contribute to the success of CBD-airport rail transport have been outlined (Niblett, 1995; Sproule and Mandalapu, 1992; Mandie, 1994; de Neufville, 1976). They can be summarised under four broad headings: 1. transport market potential; 2. existence of alternatives; 3. service characteristics; and 4. interchange and accessibility.

Although the access condition at any airport is unique (Sproule and Mandalapu, 1994), the following factors are likely to contribute to the success of a CBD-airport rail link: • high population densities and well developed metropolitan transit network; • airport located relatively far from city; • rail line can be used by commuters, airport workers, as well as other non airport travellers; and • airport rail station is easily accessible - ideally in the airport terminal.

4.5.3.1 Transport Market Potential Greater land-use activity means greater transport activity and larger transport networks. A threshold population level is probably needed to create the conditions that will make a CBD to airport meta link possible. To put it another way, the potential market, measured by the regional population, must be large enough to warrant an additional transport link.

- 107- The metropolitan area1 populations of forty of the regions which were identified as having CBD airport rail links is shown in Figure 4.16. Of the forty metropolitan areas shown, 75% have populations of 1 million of more. Of the ten city areas with less than 1 million population, three are part of multiple city-airport links (e.g. Newark-New York, Oakland-San Francisco).

In addition to an assessment of the existing passenger demand for ground transport from city to airport, potential growth in the overall transport market should also be considered. According to one source (Mandie, 1994), the desirable market for CBD-airport rail links comprises potential passengers who: • desire transport at predictable times; • recognise rail travel as faster, or at least equivalent, to travel on alternative modes; • are sensitive to transport cost (for example, non business travellers) and are not travelling with children or others with transport related disabilities wish to avoid uncertainty of finding convenient carparking space at the airport and the delays in using shuttle bus from remote parking areas to terminal; • know how to use the rail system and know the destinations served by rail; and • are frequent users of the airport and carry little or no baggage.

4.5.3.2 Existence of Alternatives Success of a CBD-airport raillinl( depends in part on alternative ground transport. Some factors which favour private vehicle use are uncongested city to airport road conditions - ample parking in both the city centre and the airport, which is provided at a relatively low cost. Road-based transport modes other than private vehicles would be favoured if roads are uncongested but there are restrictions (in terms of availability or cost) on private vehicle parking at either the CBD or the airport.

Faster rail travel time over other ground access modes also indicates success. If speed is used as a proxy for ground access travel times (and noting that this does not include access times for rail transport), a comparison of average road and rail transport times may be used to indicate relative travel times. As far as average speeds for CBD-airport links that are operating or under construction, the slowest speed trip is from Bremen CBD to Bremen Airport (BRE); the fastest is the London CBD to Gatwick Airport (LGW).

1 A metropolitan area is a continuous built up area containing a number of cities and towns.

- 108- population (millions)

Geneva ~ Frankfurt ~ Bremen ~ Glasgow ~ Brussels ~ Amsterdam c Dusseldorf 0 Milan ~ Vienna ~ Munich 1::==1 Barcelona l::::m Cel-.eland ~ Birmingham Baltimore Manchester StLouis Atlanta Boston Porto Alegre Rome Montreal Ber1in Sydney Washington Toronto Philadelphia San Francisco St Petersburg Hong Kong Bangkok Chicago London Moscow Paris Seoul Tokyo New York Mexico City

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Figure 4.16 Metropolitan Area Populations for Identified CBD-Airport Links

- 109- Figure 4.17 shows the relative speeds for road 2 and rail for some of the CBD-airport links. It is interesting to note that the majority of European and Asian links offer faster ground access via rail. On the other hand, relative speeds on the North American links do not clearly show rail as the faster airport ground access mode, where seven out of twelve North American links offer faster ground access via road.

4.5.3.3 Service Characteristics Service characteristics, such as those listed here, are thought to be important in the success or failure of CBD-airport rail links: • fares; • maintenance regime; • security at stations; • availability of amenities (food and drink, toilets, shops); • friendly, courteous, helpful station staff; • type of train services offered (metro or suburban, in tunnel or at ground level, etc.); • on board services (telephones, food and beverage services)comfort of train seating; and • smoothness of ride.

These characteristics have been compiled from various written sources (Niblett, 1995; Sproule and Mandalapu, 1992; Mandie, 1994; de Neufville, 1976), as well as personal interviews with rail operators and consultants in Australia and the United States.

2 Road speeds were derived using average taxi travel time and distance from the airport to the city in Crampton (1989).

- 110- Atlanta-All

Nort Amer a

Chlcag

OWllan

Cent al Am ica

Barcelona-BCN ~1!!!!!~!!1!!1.11!!1·~3· B8111r>-S>G' ~!!!!1!1!!!!!1!1!!·····.... ~

Blnnlngham-BHX~~=====;~Bremen-BRE ) E1-=El•t•m:i::llr Euro e Brussels-BRU 1!!!!!!.!!!!11!•• 1!!!4::::::::~::::~~

Frankfl.m-FRA ~~~!!~!!!!!J!!.!!I!.B!!:B:l~:!::::I~O:::::IE:=:;::=~

Manchester-MANMl~r>-MJQ> ~;:i::::::=:::;:~~~:::IZ::::::J::;::::;:JI~ M~h-MUC--:t:rt- Paris-ORY ~

Rome-FCO}!Pans-COG ~===i::t.::i::;J::z::::::::~~

Vlenna-WIE • ..! ... ! ... ! ... !! ...! ... !!! ... ~ ..! ... 1 ...1 ... !! ... !! ...1 ..... ! ... ! ... ! ... 1 ...! ... 1 ...~.! ... ~~...• ... •... •... •... ,.. ._. ·... •... •... •...... - ...... Bangkoi<·BKK

Asia Brisbane(BNE)~==~===t~:!:Seru-GMP :l:~ Sydney-SYD

0 10 20 30 50 60 70 60 90 100

I• rail kmlhr • road kmlhr I

Figure 4.17 Comparison of Road & Rail Speeds of CBD-Airport Links

- 111 - Of the items in this list, fares are often given importance, and are a component of generalised costs of travel on which travellers base mode choice decisions. Figure 4.18 compares cents (in Australian currency) per kilometre for CBD-airport links.

cents per km

Glasgow·PIK CJ St Louis-5TL ~ New Yori<-JFK

ClevelaOO.CLE

Chicago-MOW BaltlmO

Allanla-ATL Berlin-SF X Malaga-AGP

Chicago-ORO Tokyo-r-RT

Porto Alegr&-PGP London-LHR

Washington-DCA

Hong Kong-H

London-LCY Blrmlngham-BHX

Barcetona-BCN Ousseldorf-OUS Bertin-TXL

Boston-60S Glasgow-GLA Munlch-MJC

Pans-COG Phlladelphla-PHL

Oakland-OAK Sydney-SYD

Zurich-ZRH

Paris-ORY BerNn-THF

Geneva-GVA

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 BO 90 100

Figure 4.18 CBD-Airport Link Cents (AUD) per Kilometre

4.5.3.4 Interchange and Accessibility The success of a CBD-airport transit link also depends on: • where the rail station is located in the city centre; • the location of the rail station at the airport; • the number of rail stations passengers can reach without changing trains; and • the number of stops between the city centre and the airport.

- 11 2- Other factors that enhance accessibility, and possible the eventual success of the CBD-airport link, are provision of directional signs at the airport terminal and CBD rail station and the provision of information about the city's transport system in both places.

Location of rail stations at the airport varies for identified CBD-airport links, as discussed under the section "Definition of CBD-Airport Link". It is believed that rail stations that are incorporated into air terminals will be more accessible and more highly patronised than those located at greater distances. Airport shuttle bus services would overcome part of the increased difficulty of changing from train to air mode, but the additional mode change is likely to continue to inhibit patronage to some degree.

How many passengers will take the rail trip from the airport to the city also depends on origin and destination choices. Not every traveller will wish to go to the centre of the city. However, he or she may wish to connect with rail services to other parts of the city if they are available. The number of stops between the CBD and the airport is a rough guide to how many interchange possibilities there are for prospective passengers. Interchange opportunities are related to the type of rail network. A high speed, dedicated link (as in Tokyo and London) would cater to airport travellers only. A metro (such as Chicago-O'Hare (ORD)) may have a mix of passengers for the airport and other city destinations. Examples of links, the number of possible rail interchange points and rail type are shown in Table 4.5.

Table 4.5 CBD-Airport Links: Rail Stops (Possible Interchange Points) and Rail Type

~·- .~ ,, City-airport code Rail station - airport name Number Rail type of stops ' I Berlin-SXF Berlin Hauptbahnhof- Schonefeld 1 High speed network Birmingham-BHX New Street- Birmingham 0 Regional I Boston-BOS Government Center-Boston 3 Suburban Chicago-ORD Washington-Dearborn CTA- O'Hare 15 Metro Cleveland-CLE Tower City - Cleveland 2 Metro Frankfurt-FRA Hauptbahnhof- Frankfurt (S-Bahn) 0 High speed network London-LGW Victoria- Gatwick (Gatwick Express) 0 High speed dedicated ,, London-LHR Paddington - Heathrow (Heathrow Express) 0 High speed dedicated i London-STN Liverpool Street- Stansted (Stansted Express) 0 High speed dedicated I Malaga-AGP Centro - Malaga 0 Regional Porto Alegre-PGP Mercado - Porto Alegre 2 Metro 1 • Philadelphia-PHL 20 h Street - Philadelphia 1 Metro ii Tokyo-NRT Tokyo- Narita (JR Express) 0 High speed dedicated : Tokyo-NRT Keisei Uneo- Narita (Keisei Skyliner) 0 High speed dedicated

On the other hand, frequent stops mean longer journey times. The Tokyo-Narita link offers express services, although other services are available. Express services are a refinement of services with more frequent stops, and can be taken as an indicator that passenger demand is sufficient to allow segmentation of services.

CBD-airport transport by private vehicle can also be hindered by lack of accessibility at the airport. Restrictions on carparking availability will constrain the demand for private vehicle based transport. From survey responses, the ratio of annual air passengers to number of carparking spaces is shown in Figure 4.19.

- 113- Figure 4.19 gives an approximation of annual airport activity and its subsequent ground transport demand, versus the amount of available carparking. It shows the potential number of passengers per parking space, and should be a rough guide to the relative mode split to private vehicle for the airports shown. However, the annual air passenger figures used would include in transit passengers. A refinement of this measure would be to use air passengers net of those in transit by arr.

Stansted (STN) Schonefeld (SXF) Bremen (BRE) Birmingham (BHX) Malpensa (MXP) Vienna International (WIE) Baltimore Washington (BWI)

Manchester (~) Brussels National (BRU) Dusseldorf (DUS) London City (LCY) Cointrin (GVE) Roissy Charles De Gaulle (COG) Calgary (YYC) Orly (ORY) Heathrow (LHR) Fiumicino (FCO) Malaga (MGP) O'Hare (ORO) ~ Kimpo (GIM) ~ Hopkins (CLE) ~ Narita (NRT) p

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 spaces per 10,000 passengers

Figure 4.19 Carparking Spaces per 10,000 Air Passengers

4.6 Conclusions Airport ground access is a matter of increasing significance, due to increasing congestion in many major cities. This is especially the case if it is viewed as a missing terrestrial link in a multi-modal, air- and ground-based transport network.

The first part of the comprehensive survey of current CBD-airport rail link characteristics yields the following conclusions: • the majority of rail links are no more than 20 years old, with newer links being added at an increasing rate (Figure 4.5);

- 114- • the majority of rail links are no more than 20 years old, with newer links being added at an increasing rate (Figure 4.5); • almost 70% of all rail links are less than 20 kilometres from the airport (Figure 4.6) - and the older the link, the more likely it is to be closer to the airport (Figure 4.7); • although there is a wide range of air passenger numbers for the airports connected to the CBD by rail, the presence of international air passengers appears to be a positive indicator for the need for rail ground access; • several cities comprise multiple city centre and airport connections - it appears that the more well-developed air- and ground-based transport networks are, the more effective an additional transport link will be; and • factors that favour CBD-airport rail links probably include a city population of one million or more, accessible stations and easy interchange with other transport modes, relatively faster travel times than for other modes, and restrictions on carparking in the city and/or at the airport.

The second part of the survey - covered in the following chapter - explores additional factors of CBD-airport rail access, including: • demand; • station characteristics; • type of rolling stock used; • sources of funds for construction and operation; • factors considered in the decision to build the link; and • operators' opinions about the importance of potential success factors.

- 115- 5 CBD TO AIRPORT RAIL LINKS WORLDWIDE

5.1 Introduction This chapter describes the second part of an international survey of airport and rail operators. (The first part of this survey is described in the previous chapter, where CBD airport link characteristics were surveyed.) In the second part of the survey, a total of 54 links were surveyed. The mailing list was prepared from the links identified for the first part of the survey, and modified for responses that were made to it.

The second survey explored: • rail link demand (airport ground access mode split and rail patronage from the city to the airport); • rail station characteristics; • type of rail rolling stock used; • sources of funds for construction and operation; • decision-making factors considered; and • identification and ranking of CBD-airport link critical success factors.

This information was updated by a search of relevant web sites. A complete listing of these sites is shown in Appendix E.

The next section describes the response rate to the second part of the survey, as well as the entire survey. Following this, additional information about airport and CBD railway stations, rail patronage and mode shares for airport ground access by rail is discussed. Next, the fi.mding for construction and operation of CBD-airport links is given, followed by details about how investment decisions were made. From this information, potential critical success factors for this type of investment are developed and applied to current CBD-airport rail links.

5.2 Response Rate Of 108 surveys, distributed in1998, 40 responses were received. This is a 37% response rate. Table 5.1 summarises the CBD-airport rail links that were in the second survey\ and the response by link for both surveys. Six links were not included in the second survey, either because the first survey response indicated that there was no existing or planned rail link, or because the first survey was returned undelivered. Three were in Russia, two in Canada and one in North Africa: • Calgary-Calgary International (YYC);

1 The links that were identified for the first survey are listed in Appendix B. Also included is a list of additional links from the International Air Rail Organisation, Internet site www.airportrailwaysoftheworld.com/arc_en.shtml, access date 25 May 2003. This information was not available at the time the second survey was conducted.

- 116- • Moscow-Domededovo (DME); • Moscow-Sheremetyevo (SVO); • St Petersburg-Leningrad Pulkovo (LED); • Toronto-Lester B Pearson (YYZ); and • Tunis-Cherguin II (TUN).

Table 5.1 Responses to Parts One and Two of CBD-Airport Rail Link Survey

EUROPE NORTH AMERICA • Amsterdam-Schiphol (AMS)1 • Atlanta-Hartsfield Atlanta (ATL)* • Barcelona-EI Prat (BCN? • Baltimore-Baltimore Washington • Berlin-Tegel (TXL)1 International (BWI)1 • Berlin-Templehof (THF)1 • Boston-Boston Logan (BOS)1 • Berlin-Schonefeld (SFX)* • Chicago-Midway (MDW)2 • Birmingham-Birmingham (BHX)* • Chicago-O'Hare (ORD)* • Bremen-Bremen (BRE)* • Cleveland-Hopkins (CLE)* • Brussels-Brussels (BRU) • Newark-Newark Liberty (EWR)1 • Dusseldorf-Dusseldorf (DUS)* • New York-JFK (JFK)* 2 3 • Frankfurt-Frankfurt (FRA) • New York-Westchester County (HPN) • • Geneva-Cointrin (GVA)* • Oakland-Oakland (OAK)1 • Glasgow-Prestwick (PIK)1 • Philadelphia-Philadelphia (PHL)* • London-Gatwick (LGWf • San Francisco-Oakland (OAK)1 • London-Heathrow (LHR)* • San Francisco-San Francisco (SFO)* • London-London City (LCY)* • StLouis-StLouis Lambert (STL)1 • London-Southend (EGMC) • Washington-Dulles (lAD? • London-Stansted (STN)* • Washington-Washington National (DCA)1 • Malaga-Malaga (AGP) • Manchester-Manchester (MAN)* • Milan-Malpensa (MXP)* CENTRAL AMERICA • Munich-Munich (MUG)* • Mexico City-Mexico Juarez (MEX)* • Newcastle-Newcastle (NCL)* • Paris-Roissy Charles De Gaulle (CDG)1 • Paris-Orly (ORY)* • Rome-Fiumicino (FC0)1 ASIA • Valencia-Valencia (VCL) • Bangkok-Don Muang (BKK)1 • Vienna-Vienna (WIE)* • Hong Kong-Hong Kong (HKG)* • Zurich-Kioten (ZRHf • Seoui-Kimpo (GMP)* • Taipei-Taipei Shungsan (TSA) SOUTH AMERICA • Tokyo-Haneda (HND)2 • Porto Alegre-Porto Alegre (PGP)* • Tokyo-Narita (NRT)*

* Received response to both surveys Received response to first survey only 2 Received response to second survey only Respondent advised no rail link exists

- 117- Table 5.2 Second Part of Survey of CBD-Airport Rail Links: Responses by Category

a railwa o erator ---total---- Complete survey 2 forms 14 31 Other response 6 9 totals ------20 40 The Zurich-Zurich (ZRH) CBD-airport rail link was added to the mailing list for the second survey. Of the responses to the second survey, airport and railway operators responded equally, as shown in Table 5.2.

58% of the responses were from European links, 26% from North America, 10% from Asia. The remaining responses were 1 from Central America and 1 from South America, as shown in Figure 5.1.

! "'u 1: e CD :I E w < II) location

I• identified Cl survey response I

Figure 5.1 Responses to Second Part of Survey by Geographic Region

Nine responses did not include a completed questionnaire. Of these: • six indicated that the information requested was not known (London-Heathrow (LHR), London-London City (LCY), Malaga-Malaga (AGP), Paris-Orly (ORY), Porto Alegre-Port Alegre (PGP), Washington-Dulles (lAD)); • one indicated that airport passengers were not significant on the CBD-airport rail link (London-London City (LCY)); and • one indicated that the service does not presently operate (Manchester-Manchester (MAN)f

2 According to the Manchester Airport Internet site (www.manchesterairport.com.uk, accessed 13 July 200 I), these services now operate.

- 118 - Airport operator and railway operator covered different elements of information. Table 5.3 shows the broad elements of each survey. Airport operators were asked about ground access by transport mode. Railway operators were asked about train service characteristics. Both were asked about sources of funds for construction and operations, the factors that considered in the decision to construct such a link, and which factors they consider critical in the decision. Copies of airport and rail surveys are reproduced as Appendix D.

Table 5.3 Second Part of Survey of CBD-Airport Rail Links: Elements of Airport and Railway Surveys Survey element airport operator railway operator airport ground access mode split y rail patronage from city to airport y characteristics of rail station in city y characteristics of rolling stock y funds for construction y y funds for operation y y decision-making factors y y critical success factors y y

The requested information not being known could be a significant factor in the non response of other surveyed railway operators and airport authorities. This could be interpreted as a result of modal "compartmentalism". CBD-airport rail links are meta links, connecting two transport modes. The questions on the survey sprumed both modes and it is possible that under existing institutional arrangements the information would not be readily available.

Another reason for non-response could be that the information asked was not collected and recorded in an easily retrievable form in the surveyed organisations. This could be the case especially for those older CBD-airport rail links, where a search for archival data might be time-consuming to access.

5.3 Link Descriptors The second survey continued gathering information about the chru·acteristics, or descriptors, of CBD-airport links. In particular, airport and railway operators were asked about the features of CBD and airport railway stations, rail patronage and mode shares for airport ground access.

5.3.1 Summary of Links Worldwide 3 Based on the first and second survey results and secondary sources , Table 5.4 summarises the 48 known operating CBD-airport links, their respective lengths and travel times.

3 Secondary sources include the Internet. A table of CBD-airport rail links, relevant Internet sites and the dates these sites were accessed is shown in Appendix E.

- 119- Table 5.4 Operating CBD-Airport Rail Links: Distances, Travel Times and Speeds

City Airport (airport code) Distance Travel Speed (kms) time (km/h) (minutes) Amsterdam Schiphol (AMS) 15 20 45 Atlanta Hartsfield Atlanta (ATL) 16 15 64 Baltimore Baltimore Washington International (BWI) 16 35 27 Bangkok Don Muang (BKK) 22 35 38 Barcelona El Prat (BCN) 10 16 38 Berlin Schonefeld (SXF) 24 45 32 Berlin Tegel (TXL) 10 30 20 Berlin Tempelhof (THF) 6 10 36 Birmingham Birmingham (BHX) 13 15 52 Boston Boston Logan (BOS) 5 7-8 40 Bremen Bremen (BRE) 4 17 14 Brisbane Brisbane (BNE) 16 20 48 Brussels Brussels (BRU) 12 18 40 Chicago Midway (MDW) 13 30 26 Chicago O'Hare (ORD) 30 45 40 Cleveland Hopkins (CLE) 16 20 48 Dusseldorf Dusseldorf (DUS) 8 11 44 Frankfurt Frankfurt (FRA) 12 11 65 Geneva Cointrin (GVA) 4 6 40 Glasgow Glasgow (GLA) 14 30 28 Glasgow Prestwick (PIK) 61 48 76 Hong Kong Hong Kong International (HKG) 34 23 89 London Gatwick (LGW) + 43 30 86 London Heathrow (LHR) 25 15 100 London London City (LCY) 9 25 22 London Stansted (STN) 50 40 75 Malaga Malaga (AGP) 9 13 42 Manchester Manchester (MAN) 16 20 48 Mexico City Mexico Juarez (MEX) 13 30 26 Milan Malpensa (MXP) 45 40 68 Munich Munich (MUC) 30 38 47 Newark Newark (EWR) 4 11 22 New York JFK(JFK) 24 35-39 39 Newcastle Newcastle (NCL) 10- 30 20 Oakland Oakland (OAK) 18 25 43 Osaka ltami (ITM) 60 45 80 Oslo Oslo International (OSL) 47 20 141 Paris Orly (ORY) 14 25 34 Paris Roissy Charles De Gaulle (CDG) 26 27 58 Philadelphia Philadelphia (PHL) 13 25 31 Porto Alegre Porto Alegre (PGP) 7 10 42 Rome Fiumicino (FCO) 35 25 84 San Francisco San Francisco (SFO) 22 47 28 Seoul Kimpo (GMP) 19 46# 25 StLouis St Louis-Lambert (STL) 16 34 28 Stockholm Arlanda (ARN) 45 23 117 Sydney Kingsford Smith (SYD) 9 12 45 Tokyo Haneda (HND) 17 22 46 Tokyo Narita (NRT) ** 68 57 72 Vienna Vienna International (WIE) 16 30 32

- 120- City Airport (airport code) Distance Travel Speed (kms) time (kmlh) (minutes) Washington Dulles (IAD) 42 40 64 Washington Washington National (DCA) 8 18 27 Zurich Kloten (ZRH) 12 10 72 + BAA Gatwick currently plans to invest £4 million in a high quality public transport system called FastWay (Jane's Transport, 2001) **Tokyo-Narita represents two links. Japan Railways and Keisei Railways both operate CBD to airport services from central Toh.-yo to Narita. - This distance is approximate (estimated from UK Internet map collection, www.streetmap.co.uk) # Fastest travel time for a subway journey that involves changing trains (from Internet site www.seoulsubway.co.kr/English_subway)

All 48 links represent primary links, which are links between the closest city centre and its airport. Some secondary links were identified and surveyed, such as San Francisco Oakland International (OAK), but are not included in Table 5.4.

Some of the links identified in the table are not particularly direct - both the Oakland Oakland International (OAK) and New York-Kennedy International (JFK) links include a shuttle bus trip from the nearest train station to the airpmt. (From the BART system in the case of Oaldand and from Howard Beach-JFK Airpmt Station in the case of New 4 York .)

There were other links that were tentatively identified for survey purposes but have not been confirmed as CBD-airport links, from lack of responses to the surveys and/or from available secondary information (Table 5.5). Table 5.5 Unconfirmed CBD-Airport Links City airport Darlington Teesside (MME) London Southend (EGMC) St Petersburg Leningrad Pulkovo (LED) Tunis Cherguin II (TUN) Valencia Valenica (VCL)

Of the unconfirmed links list, two appear to involve indirect links: • Darlington-Teesside (MME)- the Darlington-Middlesborough rail line passes at the edge of the airport, and has a Teesside Airport Station. However, it is poorly located with respect to the passenger terminal, and only offers one service per week. • London-Southend (EGMC) - according to the Southend Airport Internet site (2001), one must travel from Picadilly Circus to Liverpool Street Station, then change trains at Liverpool Street and travel to Southend Airport.

4 More direct rail services to JFK International Airport will be provided by the Airtrain linlc (Brennan, 2001). In 2002, services are planned to connect the airport with Howard Beach-JFK Airport Station. In 2003, there will be a connection between the airport and Jamaica Station.

- 121 - The potential Valencia-Valencia (VCL) link is indicated in a recent Internet source (International Air Rail Organisation, 2003), but it is not possible to confirm from the airport and railway URLs that are provided by this source.

The potential St Petersburg-Pulkovo (LED) link could not be confirmed. Although a map of the St Petersburg metro was located (Metro Planet, 2001) its existence was unclear. A CBD-airport ground transport source for St Petersburg (Concierge.com, 2001) also did not indicate that a raillin1c exists.

Finally, the possible Tunis-Cherguin II (TUN) could not be confirmed using an Internet map and city to airport transport sources.

One factor that may indicate the success of a CBD-airport rail link is its travel time relative to road based transport. Road travel times for these links can be estimated from taxi travel times, if known. Taxi travel times were obtained from secondary Internet source and are believed to represent average travel times. Table 5.6 shows relative rail and road in-vehicle travel times for links where both the rail and road speeds have been estimated from survey responses and secondary sources. However, it should be noted that rail travel times do not include access time estimates. For this reason, rail travel times are likely to be understated. Links in bold type indicate that the estimated rail in vehicle travel time is greater than that estimated for road based transport, which represent potentially positive attributes for rail patronage. Table 5.6 Road and Rail In-Vehicle Travel Times5 for CBD-Airport Links city Airport (airport code) Rail in-vehicle Road in-vehicle travel time travel time (minutes) (minutes) Amsterdam Schiphol (AMS) 20 23 Atlanta Hartsfield Atlanta (ATL) 15 24 Baltimore Baltimore Washington International (BWI) 35 20 Bangkok Don Muang (BKK) 35 55 Barcelona El Prat (BCN) 16 20 Berlin Schonefeld (SXF) 45 35 Berlin Tempelhof (THF) 10 15 Birmingham Birmingham (BHX) 15 33 Boston Boston Logan (BOS) 7-8 20 Bremen Bremen (BRE) 17 10 Brisbane Brisbane (BNE) 20 25 Brussels Brussels (BRU) 18 25 Chicago Midway (MDW) 30 26 Chicago O'Hare (ORD) 45 50 Cleveland Hopkins (CLE) 20 25 Dusseldorf Dusseldorf (DUS) 11 15 Frankfurt Franldurt (FRA) 11 20 Geneva Cointrin (GVA) 6 13 Glasgow Glasgow (GLA) 30 20 Glasgow Prestwick (PIK) 48 50 London Gatwick (LGW) 30 65 London Heathrow (LHR) 15 47

5 Rail travel times do not include access time; actual travel times would vary between the peak and off peak for road based transport

- 122- city Airport (airport code) Rail in-vehicle Road in-vehicle travel time travel time (minutes) (minutes) London London City (LCY) 25 77 London Stanstead (STN) 40 75 Manchester Manchester (MAN) 20 25 Mexico City Mexico Juarez (MEX) 30 30 Milan Malpensa (MXP) 40 60 Munich Munich (MUC) 38 30 New York JFK(JFK) 35-39 45 Oakland Oakland (OAK) 25 12 Oslo Gardermoen (OSL) 20 50 Paris Orly(ORY) 25 49 Paris Roissy Charles De Gaulle (CDG) 27 52 Philadelphia Philadelphia (PHL) 25 30 Rome Fiumicino (FlO) 25 36 San Francisco San Francisco (SFO) 47 34 Seoul Kimpo (GMP) 46 75 StLouis St Louis-Lambert (STL) 34 27 Sydney Kingsford Smith (SYD) 12 23 Tokyo Haneda (HND) 22 38 Tokyo Narita (NRT) 57 74 Vienna Vienna (WIE) 30 20 Washington Dulles (lAD) 40 52

If relative travel times to the airport are important in mode choice then the links in bold type will tend to attract a higher level of patronage. Of the 43 road and rail links listed, 70% (30) offer lower in-vehicle travel times for CBD-airport access.

Interestingly, of the rail operator responses to the proportions of air passengers, see off/greeters, airport employees and other rail passengers on the CBD-airport link (7 in total), only one link could be categorised as being primarily used to access non-airport 6 destinations •

5.3.2 Station Characteristics The second survey provided more information on the characteristics of the city centre and airport railway stations. 5.3.2.1 CBD Stations Airport related patronage may be higher if CBD rail station facilities that are designed as specialised inter-modal interchanges to ease transfer between rail and air transport. Of the 13 responses received to questions about the city centre railway station, approximately 85% provide basic railway station amenities (sheltered waiting areas, telephones, train schedules and system maps and seating). The least-often provided amenities are two that would enable passenger interchange activity - in town baggage

6 Chicago-Midway carries about 60% passengers to destinations other than the airport. The Frankfurt Hauptbahnhof-Frankfurt Main Airport link has 45% non-airport related patronage (this ignores data for the new ICE high speed rail station that opened in 1999) and the remaining seven links (Atlanta-Atlanta (ATL), Cleveland-Hopkins (CLE), Geneva-Cointrin (GVA), Newcastle-Newcastle (NCL), Chicago O'Hare (ORD), Philadelphia-Philadelphia (PHL)) have 8 to 16% non-airport related patronage.

- 123- check in facilities (such as in Hong Kong and Seoul both for Kimpo and Inchon) and a station designed specifically to minimise the need for signage. 5.3.2.2 Airport Stations The degree of rail station integration at the airport can be increased by close proximity to the air terminal or by enhancement of passenger mobility through the use of lifts, escalators, people movers or free shuttle bus services (see Table 5.7). Table 5. 7 Proximities of Rail Stations to Airport Terminals

Airport (code) rail station proximity free shuttle bus Baltimore Washington (BWl) light rail station adjacent to terminal Binningham (BHX) 500 metres yes Bremen (BRE) 22 metres from check in facilities Brussels (BRU) 200 metres Hopkins (CLE) in tenninal building yes Cointrin (GVA) 300 metres Copenhagen (CPH) 120 metres from check in desks Don Muang (BKK.) in tenninal building rail fare includes shuttle bus Dusseldorf (DUS) 150 metres Fiumicino (FCO) 200 metres Gatwick (LGW) "convenient walk" to South Tenninal yes, to North Terminal Heathrow (LHR) 800 metres or less to all 4 terminals Kimpo (GMP) 260 metres or less to 3 terminals yes _L_o_n_d_o_n_C_ity~(_L_C_Y~) ______8_0_0_m_e_tr_e_s ______~yes Manchester (MAN) 500 m tenninal1, 800 m terminal2 yes Midway (MDW) 1200 feet Narita (NRT) in terminal building O'Hare (ORD) in tenninal building Orly (ORY) 50 metres yes Malaga (AGP) 250 metres Philadelphia (PHL) across street from baggage claim area Roissy Charles De Gaulle (CDG) 2000 m terminal1, 100-700 m tenninal2 yes Schiphol (AMS) in tenninal building Schonefeld (SXF) 300 metres yes Vienna (WlE) 50 metres Stansted (STN) in tenninal building Washington (DCA) "easy walk" yes Zurich (ZRH) under tenninal buildings

5.4 Who Pays? 5.4.1 Funding Construction Governments have traditionally taken responsibility for providing rail infrastructure, and this is supported by survey responses. From the 12 responses received to questions

- 124- about capital and operating funds, public funds are used for construction of CBD-airport links in 10 out of 12 cases. Three respondents (Atlanta-Atlanta (ATL), Tokyo-Haneda (HND), Tokyo-Narita (NRT)) indicated that a contribution of construction funds came from private sources.

5.4.2 Funding Operations Funds for operation of these links can be partially or exclusively funded from private sources. Eight out of the 13 survey responses received (62%) on this subject indicated that funds for operations were exclusively from public sources. On the other hand, railways representing the Tokyo-Haneda (HND) and Narita (NRT) links indicated that their operations are fully funded from private sources. Operation of two links (Atlanta Atlanta (ATL), Bremen-Bremen (BRE)) are funded by a combination of public and private sources The survey response for the Philadelphia-Philadelphia (PHL) linlc indicated that its operation is funded by a combination of public funds and fares. From these responses, it would seem that revenue from the fares is not usually adequate to fund operations. This conclusion is supported by a secondary information source (Bushell, 1994) where approximately 50% of operating costs are funded by fares. Of twenty-four airport link railway systems (Atlanta, Baltimore, Berlin, Boston, Bremen, Brussels, Chicago, Cleveland, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Geneva, Munich, Newcastle, Newark, New York, Paris, Philadelphia, San Francisco, St Louis, Sydney, Taipei, Tokyo, Washington, Vienna) that provided tins information, recoveries of operating costs range from 24% to 79%

5.4.3 Financial Engineering and Project Outcomes Public and private sector partnerships have gained increasing attention as a means of transport project development since the "fiscal crisis of the state" in the 1980s. Project fmancing - driven by the allocations of risks among partners (Pratley, 1999) and 11 financial engineering 11 agreements- will influence the extent and timing of a project, and sometimes, whether the transport project is developed at all. Privatisation brings with it "totally new rules for the supply ofinfrastructure11 (Neilson, 1997). According to the then-Auditor General of NSW, experience with private sector funding of transport infrastructure development has been disappointing. "The only advantage, if it can be so described, from private financing of toll roads is that it allows the State to avoid a borrowing and an associated capital outlay 11 (Harris, 1996).

The airport operators surveyed also contribute to CBD-airport rail links. Nine out of the ten airport operator responses to this question indicated that the airport does contribute to providing ground access to the airport. The level of their contributions (funding, marketing, supply of associated facilities) is shown in Table 5.8.

Any railwais contribution to airport operations was not surveyed because it was felt that such a cross-subsidy would be unrealistic in practice, even assuming airports were managed by govermnent authorities.

- 125- Table 5.8 Airport Operators' Contributions to CBD-Airport Rail Links contribution type description funds • contribute to rail link construction costs • fund traffic lights and traffic calming in area surrounding the airport marketing • promote ground access to airport • provide rail link passenger information at airport facilities • provide facilities for bus or rail services • donate parking space • provide terminal space • operate shuttle bus services between rail station and airport terminal

5.5 Decision-Making The survey asked about how the decision to build the linlc was made. The questionnaire sought information on a range of technological, financial and economic, community, land use, partnership, transportation alternative, risk, environmental and demand forecast considerations. The respondents ranlced each consideration according to its relative importance in the decision to build the CBD-airport rail link. The relative importance of each consideration was ranked on a scale of 0 (not important/not considered) to 4 (very important). Average scores for each decision-making consideration are shown in Figure 5.2.

The most important considerations are summarised in Table 5.9. When the responses of airport and railway operators are combined, the top five considerations in the decision to build the CBD-airport link are concerned with: • availability of funds for construction; • land use; • community consultation; • the passenger carrying capabilities of rail; • comparison of rail with other ground access transport modes; and • transport needs of specific passenger groups.

The consideration that is common to the airport and railway collectively and individually is the role of the railway as a part of a larger plan for urban and regional development.

- 126- 4.0 i i ; 3.5 ! i 3.0 I 2.5 ... ,...... -. ~ ~ ~ 2.0 1\{ ~ ' I I ~ 'H,_ 1.5 I I '-

1.0 I 0.5 't l 0.0 i ..,., ...... , N l Ml .... , N l Ml .... , N l , N l , , N l ... , N l ..., N l ... , N l ro ro ro "0 "0 .>I! > > "0 "0 c: c: ro c: E E c: c: lii .l!l .l!l ~ c: c: c: n n n c: c: "ffi "ffi ·;:: ·c: Q) ~ ~ "' 1ii ro ro 2 2 2 -= -= -= !5 g c. E E (.) "" Q) Q) "0 "0 airport operators rail operators .....airport and rail operators I

Figure 5.2 Average Scores for Decision-Making Considerations consideration description Technological tech_ l The passenger carrying capacity of the link. tech 2 The passenger carrying capacity of the existing transport network. tech_3 Comparison of rail with other modes (private road based vehicles, bus and so on) of ground access to the airport Financial/economic fina_ l The number of years needed to pay back construction costs. fina 2 Availability of funds for construction. tina_3 Availability of funds for operation. tina 4 Cost-benefit analysis; that is, the costs and benefits of the rail line, quantified wherever possible. tina 5 The railway's cost of capital. Community needs comm l Transport needs of specific groups of passengers. comm_2 Consultation with community groups (for example, local government associations, transport lobby groups, professional associations, local constituents, and so on). Land uses land_ ! Present and future use of land adjacent to the rail line, and around railway stations. land 2 The railway as part of a larger plan for urban and regional development. Partnerships pner_ l Partnerships with other organisations (other government agencies, private sector organisations and so on). Transport alternatives alts_ l Goals for transport to the airport, identified BEFORE alternative modes of transport to the airport. alts_2 The trade offs among alternatives for ground transport to the airport. Risk assessment risk_ l An assessment of the risks of the rail link itself. risk 2 The lowest risk alternative for ground transport. Environment env 1 Environmental effects (e.g. noise, vibration, energy savings, severance). env_2 Impacts on the environment, expressed in monetary terms where possible. Forecast demand demand_ ! Revealed preference surveys of passengers. demand_2 Stated preference surveys of prospective passengers.

- 127- Table 5.9 Most Important Aspects of Decision-M~king to Airport and Rail Operators of CBD-Airport Rail Links

Airport and Rail Operators average IAirport Operators average IRail Operators average score* score* score* • availability of funds for construction 2.91 • partnerships with other organisations 3.55 • availability of funds for construction 3.00 (other government agencies, private sector organisations, and so on) • present and future use of land adjacent 2.70 • revealed preference surveys of 3.40 • present and future use of land adjacent 2.67 to the rail link, and around railway passengers to the rail link, and around railway stations stations • the railway as part of a larger plan for 2.70 • stated preference surveys of 3.20 ,. the passenger carrying capacity of the 2.50 urban and regional development prospective passengers link • consultation with community groups 2.65 • consultation with community groups 3.18 • comparison of rail with other modes 2.50 (for example local government (for example local government (private road based vehicles, bus and associations, transport lobby groups, associations, transport lobby groups, so on) of ground access to the airport professional associations, local professional associations, local constituents, and so on) constituents, and so on) • the passenger carrying capacity of the 2.57 • transport needs of specific groups of 3.09 • the railway as part of a larger plan for 2.42 link passengers urban and regional development • comparison of rail with other modes 2.52 the railway as part of a larger plan for 3.00 • the railway's cost of capital 2.25 (private road based vehicles, bus and I. urban and regional development so on) of ground access to the airport • transport needs of specific groups of 2.52 • environmental effects ( eg noise, 2.95 • consultation with community groups 2.17 passengers vibration, energy savings, severance) (for example local government associations, transport lobby groups, professional associations, local constituents, and so on)

* from respondents' rankings on a scale of 0 (not important) to 4 (very important)

- 128- The responses from airport operators indicate a consideration of partnerships with other organisations is important in the development of the rail link to the airport. Obviously, for an airport operator, construction of a rail link to the airport would entail a partnership with at least one other organisation, a railway. The reverse is not the case. Railways did not cite partnerships with other organisations as particularly important. This could indicate that the CBD-airport rail link is viewed by the railway as more of an offshoot of the existing network, not a purpose-built link to provide ground access to the airport. On the other hand, consideration of ground access for airport operators is itself a cross-modal issue. Railways appear to be likely to view the link to the airport as incidental - the existing rail system plans tend to drive further development, rather than a deliberate selection of a destination, such as an airport, for investment.

Other than larger scale urban and regional development issues airport operators' responses focus on passenger demand and community needs in decisions about ground access. It is not clear, however, whether this response indicates airport operators' awareness of sustainable development and the need to substitute public transport for private transport modes. Rail operators' responses focus on capital costs, uses of land adjacent to the railway, and passenger carrying capabilities.

Rail operators indicated that the following were not important considerations (less than 1.5 average score): • the number of years to pay back the construction costs of the link; • partnerships with other organisations; • an assessment of inherent risks in building the rail link, and the rail link as the lowest risk transport alternative; and • stated preference surveys of passenger demand.

No consideration had less than a 1.5 average score for airport operators.

10 9+------8+------7+------t 6 +------ .l:lE 5 +------~ 4 +------3 +------2 -1----- 1 0 to 1959 1960- 1970- 1980- 1990 1969 1979 1989 onwards

Figure 5.3 Second Part of Survey Responses by Age of Link Most of the second survey respondents were from organisations that were associated with the more recent rail link developments. Figure 5.3 shows the number of responses to the second survey by the age of the particular CBD-airport rail link. It

- 129 - appears that the more recent the link, the more likely it is that the knowledge about how the decision was made is still in the corporate organisational "memory".

5.5.1 Community Consultation The survey asked whether the development of the CBD-airport rail link involved community consultation, and if it did, with whom. About 68% (21131) of responses indicated consultation with community groups. Of the groups identified 52% (11/21) consulted with air passengers and/or workers. The stage in project development where consultation took place was at the project concept stage (52%, 11/21) and at the environmental impact assessment stage (38%, 8/21). Figure 5.4 shows links' locations and reported consultation processes.

20 18 16 14

~ 12 .a •responses E 10 :l • consultation c: 8 6 4 2 0 Europe N America Asia S America CAmerica

Figure 5.4 Responses Reporting Consultation with Stakeholders by Location

5.5.2 Partnerships Thirteen of the 31 responses ( 42%) supplied information on potential partners who were considered. Several responses gave more than one potential partner. Possible partners fall into three categories: • other transport agencies/providers; • other government, non transport agencies; and • private investors or developers.

Other transport agencies or providers form a natural partnership for development of a CBD-airport rail link - 10 out of the 13 responses giving information about partners included partnerships with other transport providers: • Berlin-Schonefeld (SXF); • Dusseldorf-Dusseldorf (DUS); • Geneva-Cointrin (GV A); • Manchester-Manchester (MAN); • Munich-Munich (MUC);

- 130- • New York-JFK International (JFK); • Paris-Orly (ORY); • San Francisco-San Francisco International (SFO); • Seoul-Kimpo International (GMP); • Vienna-Vienna (WIE).

Other government agencies ( 6 or 46%) were also well represented as potential partners. Private investors or developers were identified twice in the survey response.

5.6 Critical Success Factors 5.6.1 What Institutional Decision Makers Think Respondents were asked to choose the five most important factors for success of a rail link from the city centre to the airport, ranking their choices from 1 (most important) 7 to 5(1east important) •

Success factors were grouped by; • transport alternatives; • train service characteristics; • interchange and accessibility; and • transport market potential.

Of these groups, transport alternatives, interchange and accessibility, and transport market potential are represented in the top four critical success factors chosen by respondents.

In the opinion of the transport providers surveyed, the four most important factors for success in CBD-airport rail link are: • rail travel time to the city centre, when compared with other ground transport modes; • existing passenger demand for ground transport from the city centre to the airport; • the location of the rail station in the city centre; and • the cost of alternative ground transport, including fares, travel & waiting time, parking fees and so on.

7 This numbering system differs from the 0 to 4 scale used previously. Intuitively, a rank for not important/not considered (from the previous considerations summarised in Table 5.9) is associated with a zero value. Ranks for importance, however, intuitively range from 1, not 0.

- 131 - 5.6.2 Assessment According to Critical Success Factors Funding issues aside, rail link "success" means a relatively high number of passengers. If the responding transport providers are right about what makes a successful CBD-airport rail link, possible measures are: • average rail speed compared to average road speed from the CBD to the airport; • market potential in terms of regional population and number of air passengers, as well as the presence of a rail transport network; and • individual users' rail transport costs compared to road transport costs.

The location of the rail station in the city is not easily translatable into a criterion that can be assessed.

Table 5.10 shows these measures applied to individual links. A "Y" indicates known fulfilment of the criterion; a "N" indicates known non-fulfilment of the criterion.

Table 5.10 Operators' Indicators of Success by Link

link travel time demand cost city Airport (code) rail< road region' air pass- inter- taxi fare> travel time pop'n. > 1 cngers2 > 5 mediate rail fare 4 million million rail stops3 Amsterdamc Schiphol (AMS) y y y y y Atlanta Hartsfield Atlanta (ATL) y y y y y

Baltimore ~a_l~imore. -~~sh

Barcelona ... ~I Prat (B

ChiC.~go Midway_(MDW) N y y y y " y I y y y y Chicago .... _()'Hare (()~) .: .. Cleveland Hopkins (CLE) y N y y y

Dusseldorf .. pusseldo~f. (DUS) y N y y y y I y y Frankfurt Frankfurt (FRA) l oco N Geneva Cointrin (GVA) y N y y ~" Glasgow Prestwick (PIK) y N y Hong Kong Hong Kong (I-IKG) y y y y

London (}atwi.c~ (~(}'\{{) y y y y London Heathrow (LI-IR) y y y y y London London City (LCY) y y N y

- 132- link travel time demand cost city Airport (code) rail< road region 1 air pass- inter- taxi fare> travel time pop'n. >I engers2 > 5 mediate rail fare4 million million ...... _,, rail S!?P.S.~. y y y London ~!a.ll~~e~ (S:TI.'I2 • N y Malag!l_.. . . ___ ·-"-· .. - M~~~~ _(AG~L . N Manchester ~~che~~(~) y N y y ...11:exico. <:;ity lV!el.'.ico Juar~~ (MEX) N y y y y ""' ' y y y Milan Mila.~. (MXP~ l y y I Munich N y I New York y y y ~~~n..e~y.(T~~L .... •••1 .. , I Newcastle }Je~castle ~CL) N N y Oakland Oa!

Osaka ~a~~ei (I

Paris Orly_~ORY) y y y y y Paris Roissy CDG (CDG) y y y y

Philadelphia ~.hiladelphill g'HL) y y y y

. Porto .:t.\:~e~re .. . ~orto Alegre (PGP) y y Rome Fiumicino (FI()) y y y y San Francisco San Francisco _(SFO) N y Seoul Kimpo (GMP) y y y y StLouis St Louis-Lambert (STL) N y y

Sydney_ ~in_gsford SITii~h(SYD) y y y y y Stockholm Arlanda (ARN) y

Tokyo Haneda (l-IND~ y y y y Tokyo Narita (NRT). y y y y Vienna Vienna {WIE) N y y Vienna y y .. Y!.~~-~.11 <»'!l.?.t ...... -...... , ...... ,. Washington Dulles (lAD) y y y Washington Washington Nat! (DCA) y y y Zurich Kloten {ZRH) y Y true N false 1 Regional population is city population or Metropolitan Statistical Area, Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area, or Canton (for Zurich) (Global Statistics, 1999). 2 Data sources: survey responses, airport websites 2001 (complete list in Appendix B). 3 The presence of intermediate rail stops on the trip from the city to the airport. 4 Although bus fares would be less expensive, taxi fares are assumed to be representative of the costs of road based ground access to airports (data sources: Concierge.com, 2001; survey responses).

If a link meets all of these criteria it is likely to attract a high level of patronage. However, a comparison of taxi and rail fares is likely to almost always show that taxi fares are higher than rail fares. However, for business travellers cost may not be an issue because many of them are likely to claim the taxi fare as a business expense. From this analysis, the following primary CBD-airport rail links appear to be capable of attracting sufficient patronage: • Atlanta-Hartsfield (ATL);

- 133 - • Brisbane-Brisbane (BNE); • Chicago-O'Hare (ORD); • London-Heathrow (LHR); • Mexico City-Mexico Juarez (MEX); • Paris-Orly (ORY); and • Sydney-Kingsford Smith (SYD).

Other CBD-airport rail links may fulfil the criteria for success, but only the listed links are known to fulfil them. Where a "Y" or a "N" does not appear in Table 5.10 means that the information was not provided in survey responses and was not available from secondary sources that were used. This analysis has been made on primary CBD-airport links only. Several of these links are located in metropolitan areas that comprise multiple airport and city centre nodes (for example the Baltimore Washington area). The implication for exclusion of multiple (or meta) links is that potential network synergies in terms of the number of additional destinations, as shown in Figure 5 .4, are not directly taken into account.

5. 7 Other Studies of Airport Ground Access There are few prior studies on rail ground access to airports (Transportation Research Board, 1998). Those that exist are mainly descriptive or normative in nature and/or involve a limited number of locations. Some of the factors that are thought to contribute to the success of CBD-airport rail transport have been outlined in Bellomo MeGee, 1996; Niblett (1995); Sproule and Mandalapu (1992); Mandie (1994); and de Neufville (1976). Ground access for multiple airports is covered in: • Negrette and Brittle (1974) studied airport accessibility in the San Francisco Bay Area; • U S Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration (1978) at 16 airports; • Netty (1995) identified ground transport problems at US airports and the viability of integrating intermodal surface transport at four airports; • Gosling (1996) analysed changes in ground access mode use at seven California airports; and • The Laboratory for Transport Analysis and Modelling (1999) compared ground access characteristics at 17 European airports.

5.8 Summary This chapter, and the preceding one, describe a comprehensive survey of CBD-airport rail links worldwide. Some of this information has been updated from Internet sites, which are listed in Appendix E.

Four broad conclusions can be made about the international surveys of CBD-airport rail links:

- 134- • Deliberate development of CBD-airport rails links is probably a recent historical phenomenon. The list of other airport ground access studies above tends to support this conclusion- the majority of these studies date from the 1990s. Older links of this type are more likely to be an offshoot of a well established rail system rather than a deliberate attempt to connect air and rail transport systems. As airports and road-based ground transport become more congested, purposeful development of alternatives becomes more necessary, as suggested by the US Department of Transportation's Federal Aviation Commission report on airport ground access (Department of Transportation, 1978).

• Critical mass in terms of traffic generators and attractors is necessary for CBD airport rail links to develop. As the number of road, air and rail transport nodes in an area increase and patronage intensifies, it is more likely that intermodal links will be developed. It is also likely that both road and rail transport systems must be sufficiently well developed. Examples can be seen in the consolidated metropolitan areas ofNorth America and Europe. Long distance, high speed trains that link several cities and airports are becoming more common, such as the Thalys high speed train that links Amsterdam and Paris via Schiphol Airport (Schiphol, 1999) or direct long distance train access to Frankfurt Airport's AIRail Terminal (Frankfurt Airport, 1999). In short, it is probably not a coincidence that the majority of CBD-airport rail links are located in large metropolitan areas.

• Institutional anangements and decision-making have not necessarily kept pace with these developments. As can be infened from the survey results, rail operators in particular appear to focus on the rail mode almost exclusively. It should also be noted that environmental considerations have not been ranked particularly highly. Airport operators ranked them seventh; they did not make the first seven of the railway operators' and combined rankings. This suggests that cUITent academic debates on sustainable development and transport, and on policy directions being set by governments (see Chapter 2) have had little impact on transport planning practices, at least up to the time that this survey was undertaken.

• Finally, if CBD-airport rail links are to attract a sufficient level of patronage, passenger interchange movements must be made as rapid and painless as possible for individual travellers. This encompasses effective capital and operational management.

- 135- 6 A NEW DECISION-MAKING FRAMEWORK FORTRANSPORTINFRASTRUCTURE

6.1 Introduction There is room for improvement in ctUTent transport decision-making practice. For a number of historic reasons, institutional arrangements themselves are unlikely to enable systematic assessment of the particular features of intermodality and interchange that are essential to the relative "value" of transport investment decisions. Further, there are conceptual gaps between transport network performance and forecast choices of travellers (as discussed in Chapter Three on the fundamentals of city to airport transport), as well as apparent gaps in decision-making practice concerning the environmental, social and cross modal impacts these decisions will have on different groups in the community. Another fundamental difficulty in transport decision-making practice is the distinction between project decisions and project implementation- this is particularly apparent in public private partnerships in the provision of transport infrastructure.

CBD to airport rail links have been chosen as a specific transport example to demonstrate these difficulties. Because they represent a link between terrestrial and air transport networks, they are a good example of a type of transport investment that is likely to be problematic in its assessment in practice. Chapters Four and Five have developed a comprehensive body of information about the characteristics of these types of links worldwide. From this, performance indicators for this type of investment have also been developed.

This chapter reviews ctUTent transport decision-making practice in New South Wales, Australia. Following this, a new decision-making framework for transport infrastructure decision-maldng is outlined. Finally, this new framework is applied, as a case study to demonstrate its utility, to the investment in Sydney's CBD-airport rail link.

6.2 Current Transport Decision-Making Practice CtUTent decisions in New South Wales about investment in transport infrastructure can be viewed in two stages: 1. project definition and appraisal according to published government guidelines on value management, risk assessment and private sector involvement; and 2. consideration of environmental impacts according to the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act.

The difference between these two stages is that alternatives among modes are considered in the first stage. The environmental impact stage is where public consultation takes place, after project objectives and alternatives are defined.

- 136- Figure 6.1 shows the first stage of current transport investment decision making in New South Wales. Project definition and development takes place under specific policy regimes. Project appraisal is documented as a rational process, primarily with a technical and economic focus. The practical application of these guidelines can vary among agencies. Even if all relevant economic, social, environmental and intermodal decision dimensions are considered for a particular project, it is unlikely that they will be considered systematically in a sustainability framework. It can be argued that each project is unique. In certain respects and at a certain level of detail this is true. However this does not eliminate the need of transport investment decision-makers for a more consistent means to compare the projected outcomes of individual projects across a number of government agencies.

project definition • value management 1 • private sector involvement 2 • risk assessment a

project appraisal inputs outputs land use-transport system • estimated transport • optimal flows model(s) system demand • average speeds/travel • operating characteristics times of transport • generalised costs infrastructure economic appraisal 4 • vehicle operating costs • net present value • travel time (generalised) • benefit-cost ratio costs • narrative on • accident costs unmeasured costs and • design, utility relocation benefits (traffic noise, and construction costs pedestrian effects, • maintenance costs severance, environmental issues, visual intrusion, eguity)

considers delivery of the essential functions of the project at the lowest possible cost, consistent with required performance (NSW Public Works Department, 1993b) assesses the potential for private sector involvement (NSW Government 2000, 1999; Finnerty, 1996) 3 required for all projects of over $5 million in capital costs, all projects with private financing, and those projects that are sensitive economically, environmentally or politically (Standards Australia, 1999; NSW Public Works Department, 1993a) 4 Roads and Traffic Authority, 1999 Figure 6.1 Current Transport Decision-Making Practice in New South Wales First Stage

- 137- It would be wrong to typify transport decision-making practice as an exclusively technical/rational process. Institutional decision-making in practice has been likened to a network, with intersections among complex and dynamic relationships (Parkin, 1994) - much like the nodes of transport or telecommunications networks. To planners, engineers, economist and urban managers, actual infrastructure decisions can appear quirky. These groups view the ideal decision as rational and non-political, but real-life decisions include social and environmental aspects that are not included in the technocrats' decision-making paradigms.

Decision-making, according to this view, is a synthesis of multiple judgements that comprise (1) problemisation and (2) enrolment. Problemisation (agenda setting) is where a powerful person/organisation defines a problem in terms of its portfolio of possible solutions, making the person/organisation critical to the resolution of the problem. Enrolment is used by the powerful person/organisation to make alliances with others in the network to legitimise this view and exclude alternative views. The real-life result is a dynamic network of actors, coalitions and goals, where attempts are made to use power to overcome others' resistance. A more systematic decision making framework for major transport investments could alleviate some of the "ad hoc-ery" associated with this type of decision-maldng. What is needed is a framework that captures the quintessential features of transport networks themselves in a summary form that can be comprehended by non-technical decision-makers.

6.3 Transport Networks

The main characteristic of a linlc in a transport network is that its benefits cannot be understood without consideration of its effects on the entire multi-modal network. Effective investment in transport infrastructure means explicit consideration of intermodality and interchange, because transport projects cannot be assigned a relative preference without explicit consideration of individual projects' multimodal transport system-wide impacts. However, both intermodality and interchange have received little explicit attention both in the literature and in practical application in investment decisions. One possible reason for this is the problem of measurement.

In the case of transport externalities, there is debate on exactly how much individual transport modes cost in terms of accidents, noise, air pollution and other climatic effects. The relative order of these effects (from the most expensive to least expensive) is (Mauch and Rothengatter, 1994): 1. private vehicles; 2. road based public transport; and 3. rail.

- 138- This suggests that the modes whose vehicles carry greater numbers of passengers per vehicle are more desirable because their external effects (often external to current economic decision making frameworks) are likely to be less adverse. The quantum of these costs varies from situation to situation, and there is not a generally accepted per trip reporting measure. As with reporting on sustainable development (Sharma, 1999), it depends -neither situation has a generally accepted approach in practice.

Estimating passenger demand for transport projects confounds this problem. How much demand is the result of the transport link generating new traffic and/or transferring traffic from existing modes, and how much is latent demand? When the demand for transport overall is increasing, how do you measure whether you have caused any shift from the less-than-optimal transport modes to the more effective ones? Models of transport systems often assign forecast trips to modes based on the concept of individual travel times. But there can be a contradiction in the expression of individual travel desires and behaviours, and collective aspirations for achievement of social and environmental goals.

6.3.1 Intermodality A decision-making framework that considers whole-of-journey effects is needed. To date, there are no generally accepted methods to consolidate network-wide effects of a particular transport project. This is especially the case if the project spans more than one transport mode, even though a link between two transport systems is more effective (in terms of creation of additional trip opportunities) than a link between two nodes in an existing mode-specific system.

6.3.2 Interchange Current institutional arrangements can encourage "mode myopia". This is when transport planning begins with a transport link being identified as a specific mode before any realistic alternatives are canvassed. Intermodal or whole-of-journey opportunities tend to be considered later in the formal project development process, if at all.

6.4 New Transport Decision-Making Frameworl\:.s There are signs of the development of a more comprehensive framework for public transport decisions. The European Commission has sponsored transport research into the aspects of intermodal quality and methods for multimodal transport environmental impact assessment (Community Research and Development Information Service, 1999). In the United States, the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991

- 139- (ISTEA) demonstrates the trend of amalgamation of information about transportation systems and more attention on cross-modal issues (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 1999). Intermodal performance measures used by states' Departments of Transport in the United States have been collected and analysed (Czerniak, eta!, 1996). However these measures are optional and are not applied uniformly across multi-modal transport systems.

The decision making process for investment in public transport is relatively complex and far from uniform. One suggested improvement is to include transport network synergies, or the performance of specific sites on a network in terms of their contributions to network cohesiveness (Frybourg and Nijkamp, 1996, p. 468). This might be measured by: • interconnectivity - the number of destinations that can be reached within a given travel distance; • intermodal flexibility -the number of modes actually in use, adjusted for relative system capacities (such as the number of passenger trips); • spatial-economic efficiency- average costs to reach other destinations; and • geographical accessibility - average journey time including the effects of congestion.

Another source (Rothengatter, 1996, pp. 208-209) suggests that integrated transport investment decisions could be made using a series of econometric and decision models that include economic, regional and urban impacts, as well as environmental sustainability and safety issues. The suggested methods of valuation here are: • private rates of return; • cost benefit analysis; and • multi criteria analysis using cardinal and ordinal scales.

What is missing in these frameworks is an effective way place all decision dimensions in context. Without synthesis, these frameworks will remain in the realm of specialists. There is a risk that the balance between decision dimensions will be lost in technical detail for the individuals that actually make the decisions about transport projects.

6.4.1 Project Alternatives and Project Financing In theory, there is a distinction between decisions about project alternatives and funding mechanisms (Brealey and Myers, 1991). First, the relative merits of projects- from the perspective of the sponsoring organisation - are explored through analysis of their financial costs and benefits. Next, sources of funds are considered for those projects deemed worthwhile.

Transport infrastructure decisions blur this distinction, particularly in relation to projects that are candidates for public-private partnerships. One of the key reasons is the difference in prospective partners' objectives. Broadly, the objectives of private partners are profit maximisation. Public partners have a wider (and sometimes conflicting) set of

- 140- objectives, ranging from agency financial performance to achievement of long-term environmental goals (such as the intergenerational effects of a transport link).

The result is that private partners' funding objectives are relatively straightforward, while public partners' objectives are less so. The two-step model for project and funding alternatives may work for prospective private partners, but for public partners it may not. For this reason, private sector links in public transport networks can be problematic. Private partners tend to view the transport link as a discrete entity, while public partners do not. A successful public-private transport link needs to balance financial viability and overall transport network performance.

6.4.2 Potential Performance Measures Using these suggestions and the results of the surveys of international CBD-airport links that have been discussed in earlier chapters, investment in transport infrastructure could be assessed using the performance measures for financial/economic, social, environmental and cross modal decision dimensions shown in Table 6.1.

Table 6.1 Potential Performance Measures for Passenger Transport Infrastructure Projects

[ Decision dimension Pe1jormance measure FinanciaVeconomic • net present value of revenue and expenditure per additional passenger trip • present value of transport externalities per additional passenger trip • severity and likelihood of project risks and benefits • potential for joint project development • project versus minimum/maximum physical infrastructure requirements i Social • fulfilment.of community expectations...... • impact on/compatibility with historic buildings/districts • costs for additional social infrastructure • accessibility - for specific/targeted social groups, proximity to major origins and destinations I I • land availability ; Environmental • degree ofcompatibility with SUlTOUnding land USeS • change in vehicle kilometres travelled • likelihood and severity of environmental risks • costs of amelioration and site remediation i' • achievement of overall goals for emission reductions, standards for i: visual/aesthetic impacts j Cross modal • number of destination opportunities per distance band • whole of journey costs and the effect on traffic congestion (includes change i in journey time, mode reliability) • change in multimodal transport system utilisation rate and capacity • achievement of other transport management goals such as higher mode : split to public transport • number of transport system constraints at origins and destinations - 1 includes availability of carparking, existence of rail stations, access from 1 adjacent streets I

These performance measures are intended to gauge the incremental effect of an additional transport link, as well as its predicted performance in the metropolitan transport meta-system. This differs from current transport decision-making practice,

- 141 - Although these performance measures show the relative merits in economic, social, environmental and cross modal dimensions, some of them are qualitative and some are quantitative in nature. The relationships and balance between decision dimensions is not immediately apparent- a more systematic presentation would help.

An alternative is a graphical presentation (a radar graph, according to MicroSoft©) as illustrated in Figure 6.2. The axes represent financial/economic, social, environmental and cross modal decision dimensions. Performance values for each dimension can be plotted along the relevant axis, and the relationship of each dimension can be assessed visually.

Financial/economic dimension

Travellers on all modes

Environmental Social dimension dimension

Travellers on mode

Cross modal dimension

Figure 6.2 Template for Graphical Representation of Performance Measures by Decision Dimension fudicated in Figure 6.2 are four nested areas that comprise groups of people affected by transport project decisions. The social groups relevant to transport investment decisions - from smallest to largest in number - are: • travellers on the transport link; • travellers on the mode-specific network (e.g. road, rail); • travellers on the regional, multi-modal transport network; and • the community as a whole.

- 142- Table 6.2 shows four impact levels, from the transport link itself to the entire region. Per capita effects - scaled by the relevant social group - could then be plotted by decision dimension.

Table 6.2 Transport Project Impacts and Scales

--'im~p-"-ac~t-'-on~--- ___ -~ll?ponents~~-~---~--~--- _ ~ ~cale by_ -~~--~-~-~ ~~ transport link • project costs trips on the link • effect on the link's travellers • equity among link user groups transport mode • effects on the mode network trips on the mode • mode network capacity • equity among mode user groups multi modal (or meta) system • transport network effects trips in the region • equity among all travellers • safety • coordination between modes region • land use community population • equity among community groups • community-wide effects

The remainder of this chapter sets out a case study of a potential linlc from the CBD to an airport to illustrate this new framework.

6.5 Application to CBD-Airport Transport Investment CBD-airport transport investment can be used to demonstrate this type of decision making framework and presentation. Sydney's rail line - the CBD-airport link - is used as a specific example of a transport investment that has impacts in all decision dimensions of the proposed decision-making framework.

6.5.1 Airport Link Description In 1990, a private sector consortium proposed to build a dedicated rail link from the Sydney's CBD to its airport at no cost to the government (Transfield, 1999). In that year, and in compliance with government guidelines, expressions of interest were called for the private sector to build, own and operate a rail link from the city to the airport. Three of the respondents to this expression of interest were invited to submit more detailed proposals, with a private sector consortium eventually emerging to develop the project jointly with the public sector. The main features of the nine kilometre link are that it: • connects with the existing railway network at Central Station on the southernmost end of Sydney's CBD;

-143- • passes through four new underground stations (two at the domestic and international terminals and two in locations between the CBD and the airport); and • reconnects with the existing railway network at another new interchange station in North Amcliffe.

PROPOSED NEW RAIL LINK SCALE

Figure 6.3 Sydney's CBD-Airport Rail Link

(Source: Railnet, 1994) The private sector joint venture, and the specially formed Airport Link Company, operates the four underground stations under a 30-year concession agreement. The train services, rolling stock, newly constructed rail alignment and interchange station remain the responsibility and property of the public sector. Services commenced in May 2000.

- 144 - Passengers pay a supplement to the normal rail fare to use the stations owned by the private sector operator (Transfield, 1999). The amount of the supplement will vary from station to station and will depend on the frequency of usage of the station. Service frequencies vary from seven to fifteen minutes. Trips between the two airport stations take 3 minutes, and trips from the airport to the city about ten minutes (CityRail, 2001a).

Table 6.3 Airport Link Fares

Adult fare for single journey (AUD) From To Normal Supplement Total fare Central Station Green Square $2.40 $1.40 $3.80 Central Station Mascot $2.40 $ 1.60 $4.00 Central Station Domestic terminal $2.40 $7.60 $10.00 Central Station International terminal $2.40 $7.60 $10.00 Source: CityRail, 2001

6.5.2 Project Development and Evaluation 6.5.2.1 Prior Decision Making Actual development of Sydney's CBD-airport rail link project took from 1990 to 1995, when contracts between the State Rail Authority and the private sector partners were signed. Project feasibility investigations were in three stages (Transfield, 1999): 1. conceptual planning; 2. detailed feasibility; and 3. negotiation. The detailed feasibility stage included studies on (Day, 1995): • route alternatives; • patronage and revenue; • airport stations design; • conceptual route design; • planning strategy; • railway operations analysis; • preliminary environmental impacts; • economic appraisal; • finance planning; • legal issues; and • risk management.

- 145- Institutional arrangements at the time did not facilitate project development. At the time, the emerging policy of integrated transport and land use planning (NSW Government, 1993c) served to broaden " ... what had started out in 1990 as a relatively simple determination of a commercial scheme providing additional public transport access to airport terminals ... " into "... an examination of workable transport solutions for the region ... " (Transfield, 1999). The integrated transport and land use policy did not prescribe how this might be done in practice. The planning approval process itself was "extremely complex and presented a number of headaches" (Day, 1995) - five local government councils, the Government of the State ofNew South Wales and Australia's Commonwealth Government were all affected.

The project was evaluated to be both economically attractive and financially viable (Transfield, 1999) at the end of the detailed feasibility stage in July 1993 by the current state government. 6.5.2.2 Current Status About six months after operations commenced, the private sector operator of the rail link was in receivership (Wainwright and Kerr, 2000). Current daily patronage is about 25% of what was forecast in 1993. Among the difficulties cited on the link are service reliability, access, luggage handling and ticketing (Wainwright, 2000).

Reliability: Although the proportion of trains on time on the Airport Line itself are unknown, the proportion of all trains within three minutes of schedule for the entire passenger rail network in the greater Sydney metropolitan area has averaged 89.7% over the last year (CityRail, 2001b). Put another way, this means that about 10% oftrains are later than three minutes across the network - if this holds for the Airport Line, it means that about 13 services each weekday and 7 services on weekends or public holidays are later than 3 minutes.

Frequency: Related to service reliability is the frequency that services are offered. On weekdays, about 132 services one way are provided from the CBD to the airport weekends and public holidays, this falls to 74 daily services over operating hours of about 5.30 am to 1.30 the following morning (CityRail, 2001a). Weekday service frequencies range from 3 to 24 minutes (about 9 minutes average with a 3.8 minute standard deviation); weekend service frequencies range from 9 to 36 minutes (about 16 minutes on average with a 5.5 minute standard deviation).

Access and Interchange: Factors relating to access and interchange vary by station, and are shown in Table 6.4. Possible deficiencies include availability of station staff, availability of(free) commuter carparks, and taxi access for Mascot Station.

Luggage Handling and Ticketing: All services use standard suburban rolling stock, which does not have special provisions for luggage. Bags cannot be checked onto flights before boarding the train.

- 146- 6.5.3 Project Benefits and Costs 6.5.3.1 Prior Economic Appraisal The economic appraisal of the airport rail link included a range of project and urban consolidation costs and benefits (Denis Johnston and Associates, 1994). Among the benefits taken into account were:

Table 6.4 Access and Interchange Features of Privately Operated Stations Station Central Green Mascot Domestic International Square Terminal Terminal Station staff Yes Not during Not during Not during Not during all hours all hours all hours all hours Escalators Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Lift to platforms Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Wheelchair accessible Yes Yes I Yes I Yes Yes Bike rack or lockers No No No No No Bus stop close by Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Ferry wharf close by No No No No No Taxi rank close by Yes Yes No I Yes Yes Commuter carpark Yes No No No No Source: C1tyRail, 2001c

• reduced travel times for those currently using public transport to get to the airport; • reduced motor vehicle operating costs for people travelling to the airport and the surrounding area by the new airport link; • reduced costs of road accidents; • savings to motorists from reduced road traffic congestion on the roads adjacent to the airport; • long term postponement of planned track increases between Sydenham and Erskineville Stations; • reduced number of car parking spaces needed at the airport;

• reduced CO and C02 air pollution and noise pollution; • reduced costs to maintain the roads around the airport; • reduced costs to provide physical and social infrastructure for new dwellings in the developed area around the airport. In addition to rail capital, maintenance and operating costs, the appraisal included: • costs to rail passengers travelling from Sydenham Station for time delays due to reduced train service frequencies; • costs to rail passengers whose trains are routed via the airport rail link (they will have a one to two minute time penalty when compared to the alternative rail route); and • rail accident costs.

- 147- Table 6.5 shows the components of the original economic appraisal. These components have been sorted by transport link, mode, network and community effects for each decision dimension. Table 6.5 Components of Airport Link Appraisal by Decision Dimension economic social cross modal environmental transport link project capital costs y tunnel maintenance y new station costs y y train operating costs y y land acquisition - rail link y transport mode Sydenham station time y y travel time East Hills line y y y rail accident costs y y y defer Sydenham 6 tracks y y rail operating cost savings y y rail travel time effects y y y access cost savings y y y transport meta s~stem transit travel time y y y vehicle operating cost savings y y road accident cost savings y y y congestion cost savings y y y y parking cost savings y y road maintenance cost savings y y community air pollution cost savings y y tourism benefits y noise reduction benefits during operation y y physical infrastructure savings y y social infrastructure savings y y urban consolidation capital costs y

Source: Denis Johnston & Associates, 1994

6.5.3.2 Filling the Gaps The original appraisal has been examined for its inclusion of environmental effects (Hutabarat 1995, pp. 133-134). Among the effects not included are: • associated land acquisition costs - savings in costs to acquire land for carparks due to reduced private vehicle demand; • loss of productivity - lost commercial yield from alternative uses of land acquired for the link; • loss of non-market values- value of the heritage buildings affected;

- 148- • social costs of noise, vibration, dust and community severance; • effect on private vehicle ownership costs; • energy and/or pollution from production of additional rolling stock or reduced road vehicles; • greenhouse emissions, water pollution and biodiversity costs; and • effects on pedestrians.

Table 6.6 Missing Components of Airport Link Appraisal by Decision Dimension economic social cross modal environ mental transport mode availability of train services elsewhere in N the rail network transport meta system private vehicle ownership N N interchange facilities N N pedestrian effects N N N energy use, pollution from production of N N extra trains or reduced road vehicles community associated land acquisition N N loss ofheritage buildings N N minor visual impacts at tunnel portals N N construction disruption N N N N Minor geological settlement from tunnels N N Transport accessibility for social groups N N N Quality of life - eg community severance, N N amenity Source: Hutabarat 1995

6.5.3.3 Inherent Trade Offs For each group of effects, there are differing trade-offs: • mode effects concern the trade-offs between travellers on the rail link and travellers elsewhere on the rail network; • transport meta system effects concern the trade-offs between the rail mode and other transport modes; and • community effects concern the trade-offs between transport and other community activities and concerns.

Attempts have been made to incorporate the trade-offs inherent in these effects into economic appraisal frameworks, but with limited success. The main issue remains of assigning quantities to the unquantifiable. It is also possible that some of these costs and benefits may overlap. The resulting fixed-point amOtmts may not give decision-makers a full appreciation of the multiple assumptions that were used.

- 149- Although supplementary information on important unquantified benefits and costs and their distributional consequences can be included in an economic appraisal, they may not have an equivalent impact. Economic appraisal is only one part of the decision making processes related to the link. Possible gaps also exist in the timing and/or nature of stakeholder consultation and the effects of the link on specific social groups.

As noted earlier, stakeholder consultation processes for the rail link were subsequent to definition of project objectives and alternatives. This is a potential flaw in project decisions related to the link's environmental effects, because "stakeholders asked to contribute their knowledge and perspectives on environmental issues generally assume that a decision has not already been made" (Y osie and Herbst, 1998). Among the ways to overcome this difficulty is through better communication of the purpose, extent and goals of community consultation.

Connected to this is the identification of social groups that may be affected by the link. This would be expected to take place during community consultation.

6.5.3.4 Additional Costs and Benefits This section considers the costs and benefits identified in Table 6.4.

Availability of Train Services: For the private sector partners, the airport rail link's success depends on the number of passengers that use it. The link cmmects with the existing railway network, becoming an alternative route for trains travelling between the CBD and areas in Sydney's south and southwest. As a result, rail services to the airport are subject to the operating characteristics of the current rail network, especially since train services on the link are provided by the state's operating organisation as part of its normal services.

Interchange Facilities: Adequate interchange facilities would enable the new link to better integrate with the current multi-modal transport system. The Environmental Impact Statement (Kinhill, 1994) mentions the possible need for bus/rail interchange facilities at Mascot and Green Square Stations. Additionally, a rail-to-rail interchange station south west of the airport would enable train access to both South Coast and Southern Highlands Lines.

Related to interchange facilities is the possible provision of integrated ticketing and baggage handling facilities.

Ownership of Private Vehicles: The expected effect of the rail link on private vehicle ownership should be a net decrease in private vehicle ownership, or at least a slightly lower increase than would otherwise be expected.

Effects on Pedestrians: How pedestrian traffic is affected by the additional link. The 1994 EIS noted a need for well-defined pedestrian crossings during the link's construction at Green Square and both airport stations. This cost is assumed to be included in the capital costs of the linlc.

- 150- Energy Costs of Vehicle Production: It is not certain how many extra vehicles (over what would have been produced anyway) the airport link would cause.

Land Acquisition: Land that is acquired for the link cannot be used for other purposes. Ideally the decision should include consideration of alternative uses of the land acquired for the linlc

Heritage Buildings: The original feasibility studies identified structures of heritage significance. These include (Kinhills, 1994, p. ix): • railway workshop buildings constructed in the 1870s; and • Tempe House and its gardens, which are the subject of a permanent conservation order.

While alternative routes were possible to avoid the railway workshop buildings, the resulting alignments would have placed speed restrictions on the line and one or more established fig trees would have to be moved.

Visual Impacts: The link is in tunnel and the only visual impacts identified were at the tunnel portals.

Disruption during Construction: Although it represents a potential cost, disruption during construction on surrounding areas could be alleviated through well-planned staging. The management of site construction activities and associated truck movements has advanced to a level of sophistication to minimise community impacts.

Subsidence: Tunnelling involves the risk of the ground subsiding. This can be alleviated at least in part by project design and construction practice.

Accessibility: Stated preference studies were used to identify the potential demand for the rail link, but accessibility for specific groups was not specifically considered in the original feasibility studies. However, forecast demand was considered for air travellers, people accompanying them, and airport workers.

A group who possibly has improved accessibility to transport is a proportion of regular public transport users who do not have access to a private vehicle.

Quality of Life: Provision of the linlc can affect the quality of community life in the areas adjacent to the link. Among possible quality of life effects are community severance and local amenity.

6.5.3.5 Costs and Benefits by Decision Dimension This section uses the costs and benefits of the original economic appraisal, puts them into decision dimensions (as in Table 6.4) and scales them by their impacts (Table 6.2).

Economic Dimension: When the original economic appraisal is scaled by trips on the linlc, rail trips, trips in the Sydney metropolitan area and Sydney's population, there are varying economic impacts.

- 151 - $M link mode network community Economic dimension -40.5 0.4 0.2 29.8

There is a net cost per link passenger of $40.5 million. In contrast, the original economic appraisal included all project costs and benefits with no differentiation between the parties that will actually incur them.

On the other hand, rail network effects - rail accident and operating costs, travel time impacts on various groups of passengers, and estimates of changes in the costs to access rail services- provide a net benefit per rail passenger of$0.4 million.

Total benefits travellers on the multi-modal transport network are $0.2 million. Network benefits include travel time savings to public transport users, savings of (road based) vehicle operating and accident costs, decreased road traffic congestion in the airport precinct, reductions in the costs to provide car parking spaces at the airport, and reductions in the requirement for road maintenance.

Commtmity benefits include net savings in the prov1s1on of physical and social infrastructure, tourism benefits and reduced emissions and noise.

Social Dimension: This reflects the impacts of the linlc on four different groups: travellers on the linlc, rail travellers, users of the regional (multi modal) transport network and the community as a whole.

$M link mode network community Social dimension 0.0 -0.6 0.1 9.6

There is a net cost to rail travellers of$0.6 million, comprising increased travel times for some rail passengers and increased rail accidents, offset by travel time savings to other rail passengers and savings in other rail infrastructure.

Travellers on all modes benefit overall, due to savings in transit travel times, as well as reductions in road accidents and congestion.

The community benefits from savings in the provision of social infrastructure than would occur otherwise.

Cross Modal Dimension: As might be expected, travellers on the rail mode, travellers on the transport system and the community as a whole are expected to have net benefits from the linlc. This is due to its connecting two transport modes.

$M linlc mode network community Cross modal dimension -1.6 0.5 0.2 12.5

- 152- The link itself has a net cost from increased station and train operating costs. There is a net benefit of $0.5 million to rail travellers - the increased travel times for some travellers and increases in rail accidents (resulting from increased rail services) is more than offset by transport savings elsewhere in the multi modal transport network. Savings to the community comprise reduced need to provide physical infrastructure as a result of increased urban consolidation.

Environmental Dimension: The environmental benefits that are included m the original appraisal affect either the network or the community dimensions.

$M Link mode network community Environmental dimension 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.3

The benefit to the multi-modal transport system is reduced traffic congestion. Community benefits are reduced air pollution and noise.

6.5.3.6 Impacts of the Link The rail link has varying impacts, depending on how its effects are grouped.

Transport Link Effects: The narrowest grouping of effects is that of the link itself. Figure 6.4 illustrates that the link itself has net economic and cross modal costs. Its social and environmental impacts are neutral.

economic 300

cross modal

Figure 6.4 Transport Link Effects of Prior Airport Link Appraisal

The amounts in this figure are the amounts for the economic, social, cross modal and environmental decision dimensions for the link itself (in millions).

- 153- Transport Mode Effects: Effects of the link for the rail mode provide small net benefits for economic and cross modal impacts, a small net cost for social impacts, and a neutral environmental impact. Transport mode effects are shown in Figure 6.5.

economic 30.0

cross modal

Figure 6.5 Transport Mode Effects of Prior Airport Link Appraisal

Transport Network Effects: The impacts of the rail link on Sydney's transport network are modest net benefits in all decision dimensions. This is shown in Figure 6.6.

economic

cross modal

Figure 6.6 Transport Network Effects of Prior Airport Link Appraisal

- 154 - Community Effects: The impacts of the rail link on the general community are net benefits in all decision dimensions (Figure 6. 7).

economic 30 0

cross modal

Figure 6. 7 Community Effects of Prior Airport Link Appraisal

6.5.3. 7 Results of Impact Analysis The results of analysis of costs and benefits by decision dimensions - when scaled by link, mode, network, and community effects - provide richness and clarity to transport project decisions.

Perspective of Decision Makers: The impact analysis shows that the perspective of project decision makers will have a significant effect on which transport projects are assessed as viable. If the CBD-airport rail link is viewed as an alternative to track amplification between Sydenham and Erskineville (transport link effects), it is unlikely that it would be preferred. Similarly, if project decision-makers perceive the link as a rail transport project, its net benefits are marginal and it may not be implemented. Table 6.7 Impact Analysis of Airport Link

Effect -----'-A~..:.::lic:...ca"-'t--'io..:.::n-'to.;;.....:;.d-'-ec:...;;.is:.c.io.::..:n=-makin==-=·::.:>ii.------'P=-e:..:.r.::..:ce:..:.iv....:e:..::d'--'v--"ia::..:b...:cil=-i~ of a· ort rail link Transport link Choices between projects that Unlikely to be perceived as viable provide the same functionality Transport mode Choices between projects for a Unlikely to be perceived as viable particular transport mode Transport network Choices between projects for all Likely to be perceived as marginally transport modes viable Community Choices between all projects in the Likely to be perceived as marginally community viable

For Sydney's airport rail link the impact analysis shows that the airport rail link's main benefits relate to the transport meta system. Although this result is not particularly

- 155- surprising due to the nature of CBD-airport rail links, it shows travellers in the Sydney metropolitan area are the main beneficiaries of the link.

If the decision for the airport rail link is made on a community-wide basis, it likely to be perceived as marginally viable. Its implementation would depend on what other projects are being assessed and whether there are limits on the funding available for its implementation.

As discussed previously, this analysis is based on costs and benefits that have been quantified. It is not a replacement for community consultation processes, nor does it indicate financial viability of the transport linlc

CBD-Airport Rail Link Success Factors: Chapter 5 (Table 5.10) includes possible success factors for CBD-airport rail links from the perspective of rail and airport operators. The Sydney-Mascot linl<:, according to these measures, is likely to be successful, because: • road travel times are greater than rail travel times (see Table 5.6)- but note that this does not include rail access and waiting times; • the Sydney regional population is greater than 1 million; • annual air passengers are greater than 5 million; • the linl<: has intermediate stations between the city and the airport; and • the taxi fare of$11 to $13 is greater than the total CBD-airport fare of$10.

However, this is not the case in reality. An assessment of Sydney's airport linl<: according to additional factors identified by operators is shown in Table 6.8. It shows that this particular linl<: is unlikely to generate sufficient demand, and be financially viable.

While it seems reasonable to assume that passengers desire transport to the airport at predictable times, it is not so easy to assume that all passengers would know how to use the rail system. It is unlikely that prospective passengers would see the rail link as equivalent to other transport modes, because there are issues concerning service reliability and frequency, as well as accessibility to free carparking.

Business travellers are unlikely to be sensitive to transport fares. Those who might be (such as backpackers or family groups) are either catered for by another public transport mode (such as the State Transit Authority's airport bus service) or may find the family car a better choice logistically, especially when there are two or more people travelling with luggage. Sometimes there are large groups of passengers purchasing rail tickets at the International or Domestic terminal ticket vendors, because the ticket machines require notes of a denomination not greater than $20.

- 156- Table 6.8 Potential Viability of Sydney's Airport Rail Link

CBD-raillink success factor Result Transport Market Potential- prospective users - desire transport at predictable times y - recognise rail travel as faster, or at least equivalent to other modes ? - are sensitive to transport costs N - know how to use the rail system ?

Alternatives - There is no alternative to rail transport to the airport N

Service Characteristics - rail fares are comparable to other ground transport modes y - there are effective rail maintenance regimes in place ? - security at stations is perceived as adequate ? - rail link staff are seen as friendly, courteous and helpful y - type of service offered N - on board services are provided N "Y" means that success factor is met "N" means that success factor is not met ? means that the effect is not certain

Even though rail fares are comparable to other transport modes, and the private sector organisation that operates the new stations on the linlc has made efforts to ensure adequate security and staff assistance, the rail services themselves are the normal passenger rail services. This arrangement does not allow for any differentiation of train services.

6.6 Conclusions 6.6.1 Project and Implementation Decisions The airport rail link from Sydney's CBD to its airport demonstrates that there is a fundamental difference between the factors that make a transport project itself attractive and those that relate to project delivery. This harks back to the difference according to financial theory between project and funding decisions.

Transport projects involve physical networks that have complex interactions. The timing and magnitude of their potential benefits are difficult to predict with any certainty. Costs and benefits will have varying impacts, depending on whose perspective is used (linlc travellers, rail travellers, Sydney's multi-modal transport network, or the entire community). These costs and benefits overlap, and contain inherent trade-offs of different social groups' well being. Cu!Tent cost-benefit decision-making frameworks do not explicitly consider this fact.

While the additional of a rail link to the airport makes sense in terms of its ability to enl1ance overall mobility (through its provision of additional travel destinations), Sydney's airport rail link demonstrates that this does not necessarily ensure the link's

- 157- financial viability for a private sector operator. This can be seen in Figure 6.4, which shows that relevant costs and benefits scaled by travellers on the link provide a result that is neutral at best. It should be noted that forecast travellers were used. Patronage in 2000 was about 25% of forecast, according to the private operator (Wainwright, 2000), which would make the results more adverse. The Sydney airport rail link's viability in terms of success factors for a CBD-airport rail link, based on the survey of airport and rail operators, also shows it doubtful viability as a stand-alone transport entity.

6.6.2 New Decision-Making Framework For transport project decisions, a new decision-making framework that explicitly considers economic, social, cross modal and environmental decision dimensions can be beneficial. If identified costs and benefits are analysed and sorted into relevant groups, the results can be summarised in diagrams (Figures 5.4, 5.5, 5.6 and 5.7).

This framework does not supersede current transport decision-making practice. It augments it, and presents the technical detail in a form that would be more easily grasped by (often non-technical) decision-makers.

- 158- 7 TESTING THE NEW DECISION-MAKING FRAMEWORK: APPLICATION TO BRISBANE AIRTRAIN 7.1 Rationale Further evaluation of the new decision-making framework developed in Chapter 6 is needed. In order to test this framework, another suitable CBD-airport rail link is used. Ideally, this linlc should also be located in Australia, so that any potential differences are more likely to be due to the characteristics of the link itself, rather than differences in institutional arrangements. However, there are few examples of such links in Australia. While two other links have been considered for the cities of Melbourne and Brisbane, the Melbourne link was subsequently abandoned (Wisenthal, 2002), leaving the Brisbane linlc as a contemporaneous example of a CBD-airport rail link that has been implemented.

The Brisbane CBD-airport rail link is assessed in a similar manner to the Sydney link. The following sections provide a description of the linlc and previous decision-making about it, as well as its current status. The new decision-making framework developed in Chapter 6 is then applied, and conclusions are made about the potential viability of the Brisbane link.

7.2 Bri~bane Airport Rail Link

7.2.1 Link Description Airtrain is a dedicated 8.5 kilometre raillinlc joining the existing North Coast railway line at Eagle Junction in Brisbane, making the total travel distance from Brisbane's CBD to its airport by rail of 16 kilometres. The line is a spur from Queensland Rail's existing northern main line (Hamilton, 2001; see Figures 7.1 and 7.2). The new portion of the link is elevated and opened in 2001. Its rolling stock incorporates luggage space, toilets, air-conditioning and carpets. Train operations commenced with the combination of three and six car trains, with plans to eventually use six car trains as demand mcreases.

This CBD-airport link has two elevated stations, one adjacent to Brisbane Airport's international terminal and the other adjacent to the domestic terminal. The domestic station is located directly outside the airport terminal, and is reached by lift, escalator and a short overhead covered walkway. The station at the international terminal is located just outside it, via a covered walkway from the mezzanine level (up one level from arrivals and down one level from departures). A third station in the airport precinct may also be provided in the future (Trans:field, 2000).

Service frequency is based on the need to keep average waiting times between services at an acceptable level. Trains run up to four times an hour between the airport and Brisbane CBD from 5 am to 9 pm, with two trains that continue to the Gold Coast every hour. The CBD-airport journey talces 22 minutes and costs $9 one way, and there are 4 train services per hour. The Gold Coast-airport journey takes 92 minutes and costs $25

- 159- one way, there are 2 trains per hour (Airtrain Pty Ltd, 2003). Tickets to the airport are available at all Queensland Rail (QR) stations.

Brisbane Ci 8Kkpa l!fS Brisbane City Hoi~ BMbanc Cil Oesh.ulians ' .. I• • · 8 • ' 0 ' ' ' 1 ,,~,...... ,,, Atti I 11 l~t t.l~' ., . . ~ . t" ~· ...... 5 f l '" a ,, lu~~o J

(Source Wilmap, 2003) Figure 7.1 Brisbane CBD Map, Showing Airport Rail Link

- 160- (Source:Transfield, 2000) Figure 7.2 Airtrain Route Map

In January 1995 Airtrain Citylink Ltd (Airtrain), a private sector consortium, lodged a proposal with Queensland Government for a privately funded and operated rail service between Brisbane Airport and the city of Brisbane. In November 1995, the Queensland Government sought private sector expressions of interest in developing and operating rail services from the existing rail network to the international and domestic airport terminals. In May 1996, Airtrain was awarded an exclusive mandate by the Queensland State Government to develop a detailed proposal.

In April 1998, an agreement was made with the private sector proponent to finance, design, construct and operation the link. Under the terms of the agreement Airtrain will transfer the CBD-airport link back to the state government after 35 years of operation at no cost.

Forecast patronage was 2.7 million passengers in the flrst year of operation, 5.7 million by its tenth year and 16.5 million when the link reverts to government ownership in 2036 (Geography Environment Society, 1999).

Airtrain services commenced May 2001 .

7.2.2 Brisbane Airport Brisbane Airport is a 20 to 25 minute drive to the city. It operates 24 hours a day, offering direct air connections to 27 international and 30 domestic destinations (Brisbane Offlce of Economic Development, 2003).

- 161 - (Source: Geography Environment Society, 1999) Figure 7.3 Aerial View of Brisbane Airport

The airport is located about 82 kilometres north of the Gold oast, a popular beach holiday destination. At the time the Brisbane CBD-rail link was proposed, passenger traffic at the airport was expected to grow by about 5.7% each year (Connell Wagner, 1998, p. 28), from 6.1 million passengers in 1995 to 23.0 million passengers in 2010. This growth in projected passenger movements is supported by regional population growth projections for southeast Queensland of 40.8% between 1995 and 2011 (ibid.).

7.2.3 Project Development and Evaluation

7.2.3.1 Prior Decision-Making A draft Impact Assessment Study (lAS) and Environmental Impact Statement (EI ) was prepared in 1998 that described the proposed development and assessed the potential impacts ofthe proposal on the environment (Connell Wagner 1998). This document: • describes the proposed link and the alternatives considered in arriving at the proposed development; • identifies its environmental, social and economic impacts· and • indicates methods to manage and mitigate some of its less desirable impacts.

Because the train route traverses private as well as state and Commonwealth-owned land both Queensland and Commonwealth environmental approvals were required.

- 162 - The private sector consortium involved some organisations that were also involved in the development of the Sydney airport rail link, providing the opportunity to use this experience in Brisbane. As with the Sydney link, estimated demand for rail transport to and from the airport was critical to the project decision (Victorian Government, 1999), with the perceived need to capture about 20% of airline passenger market and the majority of airport employees' trips.

Passenger forecasts were developed from two different sources (Connell Wagner, 1998, p. ii): • a stated preference survey of air passengers undertaken in 1997; and • predicted rail use in the Brisbane Airport Corporation's draft Master Plan for the Brisbane Airport, which suggested high and low patronage outcomes.

7.2.3.2 Current Status In 2001 a national Australian airline closed, there was a general decline in aviation following the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the USA, and the Brisbane link's patronage fell short of projections made prior to commencement of the project. In August 2001, estimated patronage was 6,000 passengers per week, less than 12% of previously estimated weekly demand.

As a consequence, Airtrain management implemented a number of measures to increase patronage and manage costs, including: • a sales drive directed at the corporate market (about 80% of Brisbane CBD workers are within a 5 minute walk to a railway station, according to Wisenthal, 2002) and a $7.65 single CBD-airport fare offered to companies that promise to buy a certain number of tickets (Heywood, et al, 2002); • introduction of a group fare of $22 for 4 people travelling to the CBD and $80 for 4 people travelling to the Gold Coast (Brisbane Airport, 2003); • a train-limousine service which provides connections between Gold Coast trains and accommodation anywhere between Coolangatta and Sanctuary Cove for $35 (Queensland Rail, 2003); • introduction of Australia's first combined airline boarding pass and train ticket (Brisbane Airport Corporation Ltd, 2002), which allows passengers to transfer between the international and domestic terminals; • suspension of interest payments on $15 million subordinated project debt from September 2001; and • relocation of Airtrain staff to accommodation under the Domestic Terminal station (Wisenthal, 2002).

Despite these actions, passenger numbers remain low. Airtrain passenger numbers for the March 2003 quarter were similar to those of August 2001 (Queensland Rail, 2003). This share of the CBD to airport ground transport market is similar to that suggested by an on line poll conducted by the ABC in Brisbane (Brisbane ABC, 2003). This poll

- 163 - coincided with Brisbane Airport Corporation announcing a doubling of its taxi levy from $1 to $2. When asked, "How do you prefer to get to/from Brisbane Airport?" the 146 votes were divided as follows: Drive yourself and park at the airport 16% Be dropped offby someone else (by car) 55% Taxi 16% Airtrain 11% Coach/bus 1%

Frequency and Reliability: Four train services were planned each hour for 16 hours daily, but the 1998 IAS/EIS stated:

"It is unlikely that this 15 minute frequency of trains will be maintained throughout the day as passenger demand normally be focussed around the morning and evening peak periods" (Connell Wagner, 1998, p. 25).

This was due to the need to integrate the Airtrain timetable with that of Queensland Rail (QR). As a result service reliability could be an issue, the Airtrain web site indicates that 99% of services run on time.

Transport Alternatives: Alternative forms of transport are available from the CBD to Brisbane Airport. Rail, coach (bus) and taxi transport modes are compared in Table 7 .1. The specific CBD location used in this table is the Transit Centre at Roma Street.

Table 7.1 Comparison of CBD-Brisbane Airport Access: Airtrain, Coach and Taxi

Access mode Route Fare for one Travel time distance traveller (kilometres) In vehicle Average Total travel time access time estimated (minutes) (minutes)* travel time Airtrain 16 $9 22 7Yz 29 Yz Coach 13 $9 30 17 Y4 47 Y4 Taxi 13 $20 to $25 20 -- 20 * Rail- 15 minute service frequency for rail access from 5.00 am to 9.00 pm; Bus- 30 minute service frequency from 5.45 am to 15.15 pm and 45 minute frequency from 4.15 pm to 10.15 pm, last bus 10.45 p.m. (Sources: Brisbane Airport, 2003; Queensland Government, 2002)

Using an average value of travel time of $11.87 per person hour (RTA, 1999, p. B-8), this would result in generalised costs of: • $14.84 for rail; • $18.35 for coach; and • $27.46 for taxi.

Access and Interchange: There are bus connections with QR Gold Coast services, and Airtrain runs its own Airtrain Connect premium coach service for tourists, to transfer

- 164- them directly from Nerang station to hotels between Broadbeach and Southport Spit (Hamilton, 2001).

Access and interchange features for selected public railway stations (Roma Street, Central, Eagle Junction) and the private railway stations (International, Domestic) are shown in Table 7.2. Table 7.2 Access and Interchange Features of Selected Airtrain Stations Station Roma Street Central Eagle Intema- Domestic Junction tional Station staff Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Wheelchair accessible Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Bike rack or lockers ? No Yes Yes? Yes? Bus stop close by Yes Yes Yes No No Taxi rank close by ? ? ? ? ? Park and Ride No No Yes No No Commuter carpark Yes No No No No (Sources: Queensland Rail, 2003; Queensland Ra1l on the Net (QROTI), 2003; Connell Wagner, 1998)

Luggage Handling and Ticketing: The rolling stock used provides space for luggage, but dwell times at stations range from 40 to 60 seconds and baggage trolleys are not allowed on airport station platforms, potentially reducing the number of prospective passengers who might otherwise use the link.

Airtrain bookings can be made on line (Airtrain, 2003), lower corporate and group fares are available as well as a combined boarding pass/Airtrain ticket for passengers travelling between International and Domestic terminals at Brisbane Airport.

7.2.4 Project Benefits and Costs

7.2.4.1 Benefits and Costs Expected Based on the analysis of the Sydney link, there are a number of benefits and costs related to the Brisbane CBD-airport linlc that could be anticipated. Some of these are itemised in Table 7.3. This table also expands these elements into economic, social, cross-modal and environmental decision dimensions.

- 165- Table 7.3 Expected Elements of CBD-Airport Link Economic Appraisal by Decision Dimension economic social cross modal environmental trans~ort link tum key construction costs ../ ticketing systems ../ station/signalling modifications ../ rolling stock acquisition ../ land acquisition -rail link ../ maintenance costs ../ operating costs ../ trans~ort mode rail accident costs ../ ../ ../ rail operating cost savings ../ ../ rail travel time effects ../ ../ ../ rail access cost effects ../ ../ ../ trans~ort meta system transport travel time savings ../ ../ private vehicle ownership cost savings ../ ../ net pedestrian effects ../ energy used to produce rolling stock, other ../ vehicles road accident cost savings ../ ../ parking cost savings ../ ../ road construction cost savings ../ ../ road maintenance cost savings ../ ../ airlines' productivity gains ../ ../ costs of interchange facilities ../ ../ community net greenhouse emissions ../ ../ effects on traffic noise levels ../ ../ effects on physical infrastructure ../ effects on social infrastructure ../ loss of heritage buildings ../ impact on conservation values along route ../ ../ visual impacts ../ ../ disruption during construction ../ ../ ../ ../ transport accessibility for specific groups ../ ../ ../ agglomeration effects1 ../ ../ tourism benefits ../

1 This is the tendency for higher paying jobs and better employment prospects to be concentrated in the larger cities, relevant because improved transport in:fi:astructure contributes to Brisbane's expansion.

- 166- 7.2.4.2 Prior Economic Appraisal An economic appraisal was undertaken, and is outlined in the 1998 IAS/EIS report (Connell Wagner, 1998, pp. 139-145), resulting in a "conservative" $155 million net present value. This appraisal was based on a partial assessment of some of the costs and benefits involved, because a more robust estimate would be "technically difficult and expensive to prepare" (ibid, p. 141). Not quantified in the economic appraisal are: • some of the benefits from reduced road traffic congestion; • airlines' productivity gains, which would result from more reliable and attractive ground transport alternatives; • the impact on conservation values along the route of the CBD-airport rail link; • net traffic noise levels from all modes of transport; and • impacts on visual amenity resulting from the elevated rail alignment for users of Kalinga Park.

Table 7.4 Components of Prior Airtrain Appraisal by Decision Dimension economic social cross modal environ mental transport link tum key construction costs y ticketing systems y station/signalling modifications y rolling stock acquisition y land acquisition - rail link y maintenance costs y operating costs y transport mode (none apparent) transport meta system some road travel time savings (taxis) y y y private vehicle operating cost savings y y road accident cost savings y y y road construction cost savings y y road maintenance cost savings y y community some greenhouse emissions y y some effects of traffic noise levels y y

(Source: Connell Wagner, 1998)

The costs and benefits used (Table 7.4) are fewer than the costs and benefits that would be expected (Table 7.3). Because the costs and benefits for the Brisbane CBD-airport rail link are not complete, the following discussion centres on those that were quantified in the 1998 appraisal.

- 167- 7 .2.4.3 Costs and Benefits by Decision Dimension

Economic Dimension: As with the Sydney link, there is a net economic cost to travellers on the link itself. This cost represents the present value of the $234.2 million construction and additional train operating costs, scaled by 9.3 million estimated annual trips on the link.

$M link mode network community Economic dimension -25.9 0.0 0.2 5.5

The $0.2 million benefit represents savings of transport travel time, private vehicle operating costs, road accident and construction costs that were quantified discussed in the 1998 IAS/EIS, scaled by estimated total annual trips on all modes in Brisbane. Similarly, the $5.5 million community benefit represents the emissions that would occur from road-based transport, scaled by Brisbane's population.

Social Dimension: Quantified social benefits are those arising from travel time savings and reduced costs of road accidents, scaled by estimated total annual trips on all modes.

$M link mode network community Social dimension 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0

Cross Modal Dimension: Cross modal benefits are those for reduced road traffic, scaled by estimated annual trips on all modes.

$M link mode network community Cross modal dimension 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0

Environmental Dimension: Reduced greenhouse emissions and noise reductions from lower levels of road-based transport are scaled by Brisbane's population for the environmental benefits to the community as a whole.

$M link mode network community Environmental dimension 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5

- 168- 7 .2.4.4 AirTrain Impacts Impacts of the AirTrain CBD-airport rail link are different for different groups.

Transport Link Effects: The narrowest grouping, the transport link itself, has economic costs (Figure 7.4).

economic

cross modal

Figure 7.4 Transport Link Effects of Prior Airtrain Appraisal

Transport Mode Effects: There is no detail about quantified costs and benefits (if any) that would relate to the rail mode in Brisbane. For this reason, Figure 7.5 shows no net economic, social, cross modal or environmental costs, when the appraisal is viewed from the perspective of all rail travellers.

- 169- economic

cross modal

Figure 7.5 Transport Mode Effects of Prior Airtrain Appraisal

Transport Network Effects: The previous AirTrain appraisal has relatively modest net economic, social, cross modal and environmental benefits from the perspective of all travellers on all transport modes in Brisbane. This is illustrated in Figure 7.6.

economic

environmental social

cross modal

Figure 7.6 Transport Network Effects of Prior Airtrain Appraisal

Community Effects: The impacts on the general community in Brisbane result in net benefits in all decision dimensions.

- 170- economic 10.0

cross modal

Figure 7. 7 Community Effects of Prior Airtrain Appraisal

7.2.4.5 Results of Impact Analysis Decision-Making Perspective: There are different economic, social, cross modal and environmental impacts when viewed from the perspective of travellers on the link, rail travellers, travellers on all transport modes and the Brisbane community. Table 7.5 summarises these results. Table 7.5 Impact Analysis of Airtrain

Effect Application to decision-making Perceived viability of BD-airport rail link Transport link Choices between projects that Unlikely to be perceived as viable provide the same functionality Transport mode Choices between projects for a Unlikely to be perceived as viable particular transport mode Transport network Choices between projects for all Likely to be perceived as marginally transport modes viable Community Choices between all projects in the Likely to be perceived as marginally ______c_ o__ mmwlio/ viable

CBD-Airport Rail Link Success Factors: Using the potential success factors from the survey of airport and rail operators in Chapter 5 and summarised in Table 5.10, the Brisbane CBD-airport rail link is likely to be judged to be successful, because: • road travel times are greater than rail travel times (although as noted earlier in Table 7.1, total estimated travel times for taxi are, on average, lower than for rail); • the Brisbane regional population is greater than 1 million;

- 171 - • the link has intermediate stations between the city and the airport; and • the AirTrain fare of $9 is lower than taxi fares of about $20 to $25 (Table 7.1 ).

However, if additional potential factors identified by operators are also included, the result is less clear-cut. These factors are summarised in Table 7.6. Table 7.6 Potential Viability of Brisbane's Airport Rail Link

CBD-raillink success factor Result Transport Market Potential- prospective users - desire transport at predictable times y -recognise rail travel as faster, or at least equivalent to other modes ? - are sensitive to transport costs N - know how to use the rail system ?

Alternatives - There is no alternative to rail transport to the airport N

Service Characteristics - rail fares are comparable to other ground transport modes y - there are effective rail maintenance regimes in place ? - security at stations is perceived as adequate ? -rail link staff are seen as friendly, courteous and helpful y - type of service offered N - on board services are provided ? "Y" means that success factor is met "N" means that success factor is not met ? means that the effect is not certain

7.2.5 Comparison with Sydney Link The Brisbane CBD-airport rail link has generalised costs that are similar to the Sydney link, as shown in Table 7.6.

Table 7.7 Brisbane and Sydney Links: Approximate Generalised Costs

Single journey fare In vehicle travel Average waiting Approximate time time generalised cost** Brisbane $9.00 22 minutes 7 ~minutes $14.84 Sydney $10.00 11 minutes 11 minutes* $14.35 * weighted average of9 minute weekday and 16 minute weekend average waiting times **based on average cost of travel time of$11.87 per hour (RTA, 1999)

The differences between the Brisbane and Sydney links include differing route alignments, access and service features. The newly-constructed portion of the Brisbane link is elevated, the Sydney link is in tunnel. These differences are reflected in their respective construction costs (and in their net economic costs from a link perspective).

- 172- The Brisbane link appears to have relatively better access and service features. For example, the Brisbane link has special rolling stock, where the Sydney link does not. In addition, the Brisbane link appears to have relatively better accessibility in terms of attempts to integrate ticketing (as in the combined boarding pass/train ticket that allows passengers to transfer between terminals at the Brisbane Airport), and integration with other transport modes (such as the limousine that meets train services to the Gold Coast).

Both links have had disappointing levels of patronage, with patronage on the Brisbane link at about 12% of expected levels, and 10% to 30% of expected levels in Sydney. There appears to be dichotomy between what prospective passengers say they would choose and what they actually do choose. It is also likely that business passengers are insensitive to fare levels and very sensitive to less easily measured accessibility factors (such as ease of interchange, waiting times and so on). In addition, the need to prove the "bank-ability" of both privately-financed links may tend to inflate expected patronage figures.

The use of the decision-making framework that scales economic, social cross modal and environmental costs and benefits by lin1c travellers, travellers on the rail mode, travellers on the multi-modal transport network and the community at large provides additional information about the possibility that patronage would be relatively low. Both the Sydney and Brisbane links indicate a net cost from the viewpoint of CBD-airport link passengers, while the net benefits appear from the perspectives of the regional transport network and the community as a whole. In other words, while lin1c travellers may not necessarily see the link as preferable, external parties (other non-rail travellers and the community) might.

7.3 Conclusions Application of the new decision-making framework to the Brisbane CBD-airport rail link was undertaken using up to date secondary sources and the original impact assessment study/draft environmental impact statement that was prepared in 1998. The framework provides additional clarity about the project decision through provision of the information used in summary graphs.

The new decision-making framework, when applied post-project decision and post-link commencement to the Sydney and Brisbane lin1cs, has similar results. Neither lin1c is particularly attractive to prospective passengers, with the result that any potential benefits that arise from future increases in rail patronage, and result in decreased road traffic congestion, should be treated with caution.

- 173 - 8 THESIS CONCLUSIONS

8.1 Problem Investigated

There is a lack of a coherent decision-making framework for transport investment that explicitly includes economic, social, environmental and intermodal decision dimensions. At the same time, two conflicting pressures are being exerted on transport systems worldwide. The first is growing realisation of the social and environmental costs of road-based traffic congestion on urban transport systems. The second is the need to provide more transport system capacity with less funding.

Clearly, there is a need for a comprehensive decision-maldng framework that synthesises the trade-offs and multiplicity of technical detail involved in a way that would be more easily grasped by (often non-technical) decision-makers.

Development of a new decision-making framework is applied to CBD-airport rail links, because this type of transport investment is expected to have not only economic and social aspects, but also explicit environmental and intermodal issues. There are few studies on rail ground access to airports - and those that exist are descriptive or normative in nature and/or involve a limited number oflocations. 8.2 Methodology

The methodology used comprises: • a literature review of current decision-maldng frameworks for transport investment, including current models of ground access and emergent sustainable transport decision-making frameworks (Chapter 2); • exploration of the impacts of current decision for investment in urban rail infrastructure via development of a simplified mathematical model of city to airport traffic that involves social environmental considerations (Chapter 3); • collection and analysis of information about current CBD-airport rail links (defined as those links which have airport rail stations within walking distance to the airport terminal, or which offer fi:ee shuttle bus services from the airport rail station to the airport terminal) from a two-part questionnaire survey of airport and rail operators worldwide and development of critical success factors for CBD-airport rail links (Chapters 4 and 5); and

- 174- • development of a new decision-making framework for transport that is applied to CBD-airport rail transport investment in Sydney (Chapter 6) and in Brisbane (Chapter 7).

8.3 Key Findings

This research contributes to knowledge about urban rail transport provision in two ways. First, it systematically collects a comprehensive database on CBD-airport rail links that includes: • development of the concept of a multi-modal terrestrial and air transport network (in Section 4.2 Rationale, illustrated in Figure 4.2); • identification of clusters of multiple links in some conurbations (in Section 4.5.2 Multiple Links); • development of critical success factors for investment in these links (see Section 4.5.3), such as: good transport market potential (in Section 4.5.3.1) that includes relatively high population densities and a high number of terminating international air passengers (section 5.6.2), lack of reasonable transport alternatives (in Section 5.4.3.2) based on comparisons of road and rail speeds in cities with CBD-airport rail links (Figure 4.17 and Table 5.6), service characteristics that compare favourably with alternatives (in Section 4.5.3.3), enhancement of interchange and accessibility (Section 4.5.3.4 and Table 5.7), which includes certain station design characteristics (Section 5.3.2); • how decisions were made to provide these links (Section 5.5); • sources of funds for constmction and operation (Section 5.4, ); • what institutional decision-makers believe are important in decisions of this type (Section 5.6.1).

Second, it develops a new decision-making framework, described in Chapter 6. This framework is not intended to take the place of current transport decision-malcing practice, but rather provide technical detail in a summarised form for decision-makers. The framework proposed shows the economic, social environmental and intermodal dimensions of these decisions, scaled by relevant social groups (e.g. travellers on the transport link, travellers on the mode-specific network, travellers on the regional, multi modal transport network and the community as a whole).

This framework was developed using provision of a CBD-airport rail link in Sydney (Section 6.5), and was applied to a CBD-airport rail link in Brisbane. The decision making framework described is not a complete departure from those that have gone before and that were described in the literature review in Chapter 2. Interestingly - and perhaps with the benefit of hindsight - the perceived viability of both links is likely to be marginal (see Tables 6.7, 6.8, 7.4 and 7.5) using the new framework, populated with

- 175- quantified costs and benefits from the 1994 economic appraisal. However, there were some components of the previous appraisal that were missing (Table 6.6), including: • availability of train services elsewhere in the rail network; • the link's effects on private vehicle ownership, transport interchange facilities, and pedestrians, as well as energy use and its resulting environmental effects; • associated land-use effects, loss of heritage buildings, visual impacts at tunnel portals, construction disruption, land subsidence, and quality of life (such as community severance and area amenity).

As demonstrated in the simple two route two zone model of CBD-airport transport in Chapter 3, these non-inclusions are potentially significant. 8.4 Future Research 8.4.1 New Decision-Making Framework

The decision-malcing framework of this thesis has been developed from retrospective application to a CBD-airport rail link in Sydney and Brisbane. The case studies used the costs and benefits that were quantified from a prior economic appraisals, as well as information from other secondary sources.

Opportunities for future research include its application to contemporary decisions about other CBD-airport rail links and provision of other urban transport infrastructure. It is also possible that it may be applicable links in communications/information technology, electricity and water supply networks, because provision of infrastructure of this type is likely to have a decision dimension that is analogous to the inter- or cross modal dimension developed. In other words, the framework developed may be applicable in provision of additional infrastructure in any network or system because there are network/system synergies available that are not uniformly, explicitly and routinely included decisions about this type of investment.

Another aspect of the new decision-making framework's application in practice would be to confirm that it does, in fact, provide additional clarity for decision-makers.

8.4.2 CBD-Airport Rail Links

There are also opportunities for future research about investment in CBD-airport rail links themselves. The database developed, updated with the Internet sources identified, could be used to trace the contribution of these links to regional multi-modal transport meta-systems.

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- 203- APPENDIX A PROPOSED SURVEY TOPICS Decision to Provide Rail Access from CBD to Airport

These are survey questions to identify the characteristics of decisions on transport infrastructure investment. It is proposed to ask for responses to these questions on a Likert scale, ranging from "not important/not considered" to "a major factor in the decision to build".

Examples of possible considerations are given below: • passenger carrying capacity of rail line • passenger carrying capacity of existing transport network • comparison with other modes of ground access to airport • consideration of the technology of rail transport • number of years to pay back construction costs • availability of funds for construction • availability of funds for operation • cost-benefit analysis • the railway's cost of capital • economic "externalities", quantified or unquantified • comparison of the risks and benefits of the rail line • lowest risk alternative for ground transport to the airport • present and future use of land adjacent to the rail line • the railway as part of a larger plan for regional development • transport needs of specific groups of passengers • consultation with community groups • goals for transport identified before alternative modes of transport to the airport are considered • partnerships with others outside the railway • trade offs among alternatives for ground transport to the airport • impacts on the environment, quantified or unquantified

In you experience, are the considerations listed above relevant in making decisions about rail transport from the city to the airport?

Are some more important than others?

Are there any you would like to add to this list? Sources of Construction Funds

The proportion of public and private sources of capital, as well as whether these funds are received through grants, levies, internal sources. Borrowings, equity, or some other source, are proposed to be canvassed.

In practice, can the decision on whether or not to build a transport infrastructure project be separated from the question of how it is to be funded?

Link "Demographics"

There are few comparative studies on ground access to airports via rail, and a more comprehensive list is proposed to be collected. The "demographics" to be collected include: • CBD-airport route length • rail technology used (heavy rail, light rail, monorail, maglev, and so on) • fares • service frequency • competing transport modes • airport passenger throughput

What information, if any, would be useful to include in this list?

"Critical Success Factors" for CBD-Airport Rail Links

The proposed survey will also attempt to identify factors that enable a successful transport link. Possible factors include:

Current and estimated passenger demand for city-airport public transport link, as well as: • presence of competing ground access modes to the airport and their respective mode shares • amount of carparking provided at airport for employees, air passengers, see offs/greeters

Airport railway station characteristics • distance of airport station to air passenger terminal • shuttle bus services provided to/from air passenger terminal • located near baggage claim area • located near ticket lobbies • porter service available • provides for baggage carts and suitcases • same level as air terminal • disabled access • directional signs posted frequently throughout the air terminal to guide passengers to and from the rail station • provides uniform information on fares, schedules and best routes that can be easily understood by persons unfamiliar with the system and the community • station and passenger pathways designed to minimise need for signs • waiting areas that are heated/air conditioned • passive security, such as closed circuit television surveillance • active security, such as security guards • provides telephones • provides newspaper vending machines • provides schedules and system maps • provides benches or other seating • provides airline flight information displays

City centre railway station characteristics • provides for baggage carts, suitcases • station platforms on street level • disabled access • provides uniform information on fares, schedules and best routes that can be easily understood by persons unfamiliar with the system and the community • station and passenger pathways designed to minimise need for signs • waiting areas that are heated/air conditioned • passive security, such as closed circuit television surveillance • active security, such as security guards • provides telephones • provides newspaper vending machines • provides schedules and system maps • provides benches or other seating • provides airline flight information displays

Trains on CBD-airport service • station dwell times greater than 2 minutes • separate baggage compartments • provision for hanging garment bags • more than two doors per carriage

Rail network integration • part of larger rail network • connects with existing rail system in at least two points

Are there any other factors that you would add to this list of potential success factors? APPENDIXB IDENTIFIED CBD-AIRPORT RAIL LINKS The following CBD-airport rail links were identified as currently operating or under construction at the time of the first survey:

• Amsterdam-Schiphol (AMS) • Manchester-Manchester (MAN) • Atlanta-Hartsfield Atlanta (ATL} • Mexico City-Mexico Juarez (MEX) • Baltimore-Baltimore Washington • Milan-Malpensa (MXP) International (BWI) • Munich-Munich (MUN) • Bangkok-Don Muang (BKK) • New York-JFK (JFK) • Barcelona-EI Prat (BCN) • Newark-Newark International (EWR) • Berlin-Schonefeld (SFX) • Newcastle-Newcastle (NCL) • Berlin-Tegel (TXL) • Oakland-Oakland (OAK) • Berlin-Tempelhof (THF) • Paris-Roissy Charles De Gaulle (COG) • Birmingham-Birmingham (BHX) • Paris-Orly (ORY) • Boston-Boston Logan (80S) • Philadelphia-Philadelphia (PHL) • Bremen-Bremen (BRE) • Porto Alegre-Porto Alegre (PGP) • Brussels-Brussels ()RU • Rome-Fiumicino (FCO) • Chicago-Midway (MDW) • San Francisco-Oakland (OAK) • Chicago-O'Hare (ORD) • San Francisco-San Francisco (SFO) • Cleveland-Hopkins (CLE) • Seoui-Kimpo (GIM) • Dusseldorf-Dusseldorf (DUS) • StLouis-StLouis Lambert (STL) • Frankfurt-Frankfurt (FRA) • St Petersburg-Leningrad Pulkovo (LED) • Geneva-Cointrin (GVA) • Taipei-Taipei Shungsan (TSA) • Glasgow-Prestwick (PIK) • Tokyo-Haneda (HND) • Hong Kong-Hong Kong (HKG) • Tokyo-Narita (NRT} • London-Gatwick (LGW) • Tunis-Cherguin II (TUN) • London-Heathrow (LHR) • Valencia-Valencia (VCL) • London-London City (LCY) • Vienna-Vienna (WIE) • London-Southend (ECMG) • Washington-Dulles (lAD) • London-Stansted (STN) • Washington-Washington National (DCA) • Malaga-Malaga (AGP) • Zurich-Zurich (ZRH)

Other links that were identified from secondary sources during the preparation of this thesis include:

• Brisbane-Brisbane (BNE) • Osaka-Kansai (KIX) • Copenhagen-Kastrup (CPH) • Oslo-Oslo (OSL) • Fukuoka-Fukuoka (FUK) • Sapporo-Chitose (CTS) • Glasgow-Glasgow (GLA) • Sydney-Kingsford Smith (SYD) • Osaka-ltami (ITM) • Stockholm-Arlanda (ARN) Subsequent to writing this thesis, additional links are suggested from another, newer source that was not available when the surveys were conducted (International Air Rail Organisation (2003) "Airport Railways of the World", www.airportrailwaysoftheworld.com/ arc_en.shtml, access date 25 May 2003):

• Atlanta-DeKalb Peachtree • Leipzig-Leipzig/Halls (LEJ) (PDK) • Lugano-Agno (LUG) • Bari-Bari Palese (BRI) • Lyon-Saint Exupery (LYS) • Belfast-Belfast City (BFS) • Madrid-Barajas (MAD) • Blackpooi-Squires Gate (BLK) • Melbourne-Essendon (MEB) • Burbank-Burbank (BUR) • Miami-Miami (MIA) • Casablanca-Casblanca (CMN) • Middlesborough-Teesside • Douglas (Isle of Man)- (MME) Ronaldsway (10M) • Miyazaki-Miyazaki (KMI) • Dresden-Dresden (DRS) • Montreai-Dorval (YUL) • Fort Lauderdale-Fort • Moscow-Vnukovo (VKO) Lauderdale (FLL) • Nice-Nice Cote D'zur (NCE) • Friedrichshafen- • Nueremburg-Nueremburg Friedrichshafen (FDH) (NUE) • Graz-Graz (GRZ) • Pisa-Galilleo Galilei (PSA) • Hannover-Langenhagen (HAJ) • Portland-Portland (POX) • Hillsboro-Hillsboro (HIO) • San Jose-Norman Y Mineta • Islip-Long Island Islip (SJC) Macarthur (LIJ) • Singapore-Changi (SIN) • Istanbul-Istanbul (1ST) • South Bend-Michiana (SBN) • lzmir-lzmir (ADB) • Southampton-Southampton • Jerez de Ia Frontera-Jerez de (SOU) Ia Frontera (XRV) • Stuttgart-Stuttgart (STR) • Kuala Lumpur-Serpang (KUL) • Torino-Caselle (TRN) • Leeds-Leeds/Bradford (LBA) • Trondheim-Vaernes (TRN) • West Palm Beach-West Palm Beach (PBI) APPENDIXC QUESTIONNAIRES- FIRST SURVEY CITY - AIRPORT RAIL LINKS RAIL OPERATOR QUESTIONNAIRE

1. Ground access is provided from (city name) city centre to ______airport via passenger rail services. (The specific city - airport names appear on your address label.)

2. This passenger raillin1c (tick one) [J operates services now [J is under construction [J is proposed or planned

3. Approximate date services commenced or will commence ______

4. Approximate route length ____ kilometres I miles (circle measure which applies) from the city centre at (station name) to the airport.

5. Rail infrastructure type (tick one) [J light rail I tram [J heavy rail I metro [J other - for example, monorail, maglev - please describe ______

6. Rail alignment from the city to the airport is main1y [J above ground level [J at ground level [J in tunnel

7. Is special purpose rolling stock used on this route? [J yes Cno

8. Average travel time from the city centre at ______(station name) to the ______terminal at the airport is minutes.

9. Fare from the same city centre station to the airport: ___ Please specify currency __.

10. Service frequency - trains every ____ minutes.

11. Reliability - approximately __% of services are on time. lfpossible, please provide a timetable and information on fares chargedfor this service.

May we contact you agE,in for further information on this rail link from the city to the airport? 1:1 yes [J no

THANK YOU FOR TAKING TIME TO COMPLETE THIS QUESTIONNAIRE CITY- AIRPORT RAIL LINKS AIRPORT OPERATOR QUESTIONNAIRE

1. Ground access is provided from (city name) city centre to ______airport via passenger rail services. (Tize specific city - airport names appear on your address label)

2. This passenger rail link (tick one) [J operates services now [J is under construction [J is proposed or planned

3. Approximate date services commenced or will commence ______

4. Annual air passenger movements - Please provide passenger numbers for each of the following years number of year air passengers last year 19 this year - 19 in 5 years in 10 years in more than 10 years ·--

5. Number of airport workers based at the airport: ___ persons.

6. Does the airport handle national and international flights? [J yes Cno

7. Distance of rail station from air passenger terminal __ metres I yards (circle the distance which applies).

8. Are shuttle bus services or other transport provided from the rail station to the air passenger terminal? [J yes [J no

If yes, please describe the railway- air terminal connecting transport mode:

9A. .pproxnna t e numb ers o f parki ngspaces orpnva. t evehi c1 es employee parkin~aces - air passenger parking spaces

Ifpossible, please provide a map of the terminal layout, showing the location of the rail station relative to terminal facilities.

May we contact you afJEJn for further information on this rail link from the city to the airport? [J yes [J no

THANK YOU FOR TAKING TIME TO COMPLETE THIS QUESTIONNAIRE APPENDIXD QUESTIONNAIRES- SECOND SURVEY CITY- AIRPORT RAIL LINKS RAIL OPERATOR QUESTIONNAIRE

1. Forecast and actual patronage I1\ririual passengers carried -last~year. -19 ~-(year) li 'Annuai.passengers torecastthis year,.19_····"(year)·······

.1 Annual passengers forecast for 5 years frol11 now,·.-- (year) :! Annual"p-assengers io.recasttor 10 years tram n·ow;··_... _··(year) 1'2_n!lu_a} _P.as~en9~rs for~casn~~~ mor~!han-~~ ye~r~_from no~,_-_-_--(yr) _

2. Estimates of who uses this rail link l air pa-sseng-ers - % I l'se.nd.off.Tmeet_~rs and-greeters . % l ; airport workers % ! ~!her r~.. i'(.pass~0-gers .. % TOTAL 100.0%

3. What is the name of the main railway station?------

4. Please tick the items below which are true.

The city centre railway station provides ... ! "...... __ , ~-.. ·-· · faci_lities f<:)_r. bag£J_a.ge car:ts, suitcases .,...---.....,.. I station platforms c:>n street level . disabled access i information (describing fares, schedules and best routes to popular . destination) that can be easily understood by persons unfamiliar with J 1 i the...... system ''"" and the''""""' community"''" '"'" ...,., ...... ' in t()wn ba~;JQage check i':l service ! station and passenger pathways designed to minimise the need for sig':ls sheltered waiting areas . .·. waiting areas which are heated and I or air conditioned :-=----..,.,.,·... I passive security (for example, closed circuit television surv~illance)

active security (fo[ exart1J~Ie, SE3curitY!;}Liards)

teiE3phone~

_i PLI~Iic toil~!.~. sh<:)ps to PLITchasenewspapers, snacks and the like : train schedules and syst_E3m maps benches or other seatin!;t train information displays ------~~~ --- " ·~-~ 5. Trains on this line have (please tick items which apply): -~~ ~- ~.--.-~ --~-~ ~• ·station dwell times atthe airport and city-stations which are greater than 1 ,1 2 minutes .. . . _ . . . .. 1 .--=...... · s~e-~rate b~gg§lg~ compa'!r.nent~ _ __ I 0 .,j f--· ...... _i ~j~ifG~l d~J~~=:~~!~~~~~~s~nt b~g_s ·- · ···-·· ··· ~ _l '. . ' more than 2 doors per carriage. If so, please indicate whether .. Cl standard rolling stock, or Clspecial rolling stock for airport service 1

6. Funds to build the link are I were provided by public and private sources in the following proportions ~·Public (state providedffunds -- ~~ - - ~- · % I ! Privat~~(~rivatelyo~~~~~-organisation __p_f~vide~Y tunC:l~_----· %·-·r:

7. Sources of funds to meet construction costs (tick the categories which apply): - Public Private i (State provided) : (provided by privately owned or.ganisati~ns) __!;l.~a.~.t~ . levies internal sources ~orroVifings , equity . other* *Please explain "other' sources of funds ______

8. Funds of operate the link are provided by public and private sources in the _ f~llovviflg_ proport_i()ns: ; Public (State provided) funds . % Private_ (priva~e,ly owr1~d orgar:tisatiol'1pr()Vide~l) fund~_ %

9. Sources of funds to meet operation costs (tick the categories which apply): · -- · - I Public ·· · -- .. -· : Private ------• I ' (State provided) (provided by privately · owned organisations) ! ...... --- ..... '"'" ' ~ . grants i levies rIntern a'! source's' !borrowings :equity . f ""' '' r-other* . I *Please explain "other' sources of funds------10. Please tick if true (if not true, go to question 11) Cl The final decision to build the rail link was made outside this organisation. Please explain who decided

11. Please explain how the decision to build the rail line from the city to the airport was made. The following factors may have been considered in the decision to build the rail link. Please indicate your views on this decision by circling the number of the relative importance of these factors on a scale of 0 (not important) to 4 (very important).

not impor- a major tant/ not factor in the considered decision to build

Technological considerations

The passenger carrying capacity of the rail link. 0 1 2 3 4

The passenger carrying capacity of the existing transport network 0 1 2 3 4

Comparison of rail with other modes (private road based vehicles, bus, and so on) 0 1 2 3 4 of ground access to the airport.

Financial and economic considerations

The number of years needed to pay back construction costs. 0 1 2 3 4

Availability of funds for construction. 0 1 2 3 4

Availability of funds for operation. 0 1 2 3 4

Cost - benefit analysis; that is, the costs and benefits of the rail line, quantified wherever 0 1 2 3 4 possible.

The railway's cost of capital. 0 1 2 3 4

Community needs

Transport needs of specific groups of passengers. 0 1 2 3 4

Please identify these passenger groups: not impor- a major tant I not factor in the considered decision to build Community needs (continued)

Consultation with community groups (for example, local government associations, 0 1 2 3 4 transport lobby groups, professional associations, local constituents, and so on).

If consultation occurred, at what stage did this occur (please tick)? Cl project concept and development stage Cl Environmental Impact Assessment (EIS) Cl other (please specify)

Land uses

Present and future use of land adjacent to the rail line, and around railway stations. 0 1 2 3 4

The railway as part of a larger plan for urban and regional development 0 1 2 3 4

Partnerships

Partnerships with other organisations (other government agencies, private sector organ- 0 1 2 3 4 isations and so on).

Please describe the external partners considered:

Transport alternatives

Goals for transport to the airport, identified BEFORE alternative modes of transport 0 1 2 3 4 to the airport.

The trade offs among alternatives for ground transport to the airport. 0 1 2 3 4

Risk assessment

An assessment of the risks of the rail line itself. 0 1 2 3 4

The lowest risk alternative for ground transport. 0 1 2 3 4 not impor- a major tant I not factor in the considered decision to build

Environment

Environmental effects (eg noise, vibration, energy savings, severance). 0 2 3 4

Impacts on the environment, expressed in monetary terms where possible. 0 1 2 3 4

Results of demand forecasts

Revealed preference surveys of passengers. 0 1 2 3 4

Stated preference surveys of prospective passengers. 0 1 2 3 4

May we contact you again?

Cl yes Cl no contact name address

telephone facsimile internet address 12. From the list below, please choose what you believe are the five most important factors for the success of a rail/ink from the city centre to the airport. Please rank your choices from 1 (most important) to 5 (least important):

POSSIBLE SUCCESS FACTOR RANK (1-5)* Transport alternatives • rail travel time to city centre when compared with other ground transport modes • cost of alternative ground transport, including fares, travel & waiting time, parking fees and so on Train service characteristics • fares charged to rail passengers • maintenance regime for rail stations • security at stations - for example, number of security guards, closed circuit TV monitoring, station staff duty at all times, and so on

• availability of station amenities, such as food & drink, toilets, shops • friendly, courteous, helpful station staff • type of train services offered - that is, suburban or metro services; rail in tunnel, at ground level or elevated • on board services on trains -for example, telephones, food & beverage services • comfort of train seating, smoothness of train ride Interchange & accessibility • rail station located in city centre • number of rail stations which passengers can reach without changing trains • number of train stops between city centre and airport • airport rail station located near baggage claim area • availability of airline baggage check in services • provision for baggage carts and suitcases on trains • disabled access • directional signs posted frequently throughout airport terminal to guide passengers to and from the rail station at the airport • provision of information (which describes fares, schedules and best routes to popular destinations) that can be easily understood by persons unfamiliar with the system and the community Transport market potential • existing passenger demand for ground transport from the city to the airport • growth in overall ground transport market (including changes in land uses) from provision of rail service to the airport * Note: choose most important five only.

THANK YOU FOR TAKING TIME TO COMPLETE THIS QUESTIONNAIRE CITY -AIRPORT RAIL LINKS AIRPORT OPERATOR QUESTIONNAIRE

1. Does the airport make any contributions towards providing ground transport to the airport? [] yes [] no

If yes, what forms do these contributions take? (For example, contribution of capital or operating costs, donation of terminal space, and so on):

2. Types of ground transport access to and from the airport. Please provide estimates . CJ.f mode S~f!res by airport worker~_and passengers, if known. air passengers airP

: .private vehicles ~ driver % ... • ········-·······=······""'"·· . -:-==.% private vehicles - passenger __% % . taxi, limousine __% % hire (rental) car __% %

' ~~gular. ~us _ ____,% % 1 airport e)(press ~us _ ____,% %

! hotel bus __% % c;y.cle % ~alk, -____,..,.% .... ,. ... i other - please describe

.,....-~% % __% % _ ___,% % __% % .,....,....----,% % (' TOTALS 100.0% 100.0% -··

3. Please tick if true (if not true, go to question 4) [] The final decision to build the rail link was made outside this organisation. Please explain who decided ------4. Please explain how the decision to build the rail line from the city to the airport was made. The following factors may have been considered in the decision to build the rail link. Please indicate your views on this decision by circling the number of the relative importance of these factors on a scale of 0 (not important) to 4 (very important).

not impor- a major tant/ not factor in the considered decision to build

Technological considerations

The passenger carrying capacity of the rail link. 0 1 2 3 4

The passenger carrying capacity of the existing transport network 0 1 2 3 4

Comparison of rail with other modes (private road based vehicles, bus, and so on) of ground access to the airport.

Financial and economic considerations

The number of years needed to pay back construction costs. 0 1 2 3 4

Availability of funds for construction. 0 1 2 3 4

Availability of funds for operation. 0 1 2 3 4

Cost - benefit analysis; that is, the costs and benefits of the rail line, quantified wherever 0 1 2 3 4 possible.

The railway's cost of capital. 0 2 3 4

Community needs

Transport needs of specific groups of passengers. 2 3 4

Please identify these passenger groups: not impor- a major tant/ not factor in the considered decision to build Community needs (continued)

Consultation with community groups (for example, local government associations, 0 1 2 3 4 transport lobby groups, professional associations, local constituents, and so on).

If consultation occurred, at what stage did this occur (please tick)? Cl project concept and development stage Cl Environmental Impact Assessment (EIS) Cl other (please specify)

Land uses

Present and future use of land adjacent to the rail line, and around railway stations. 0 2 3 4

The railway as part of a larger plan for urban and regional development 0 1 2 3 4

Partnerships

Partnerships with other organisations (other government agencies, private sector organ- 0 1 2 3 4 isations and so on).

Please describe the external partners considered:

Transport alternatives

Goals for transport to the airport, identified BEFORE alternative modes of transport 0 1 2 3 4 to the airport.

The trade offs among alternatives for ground transport to the airport. 0 1 2 3 4 not impor- a major tant I not factor in the considered decision to build

Risk assessment

An assessment of the risks of the rail line itself. 0 1 2 3 4

The lowest risk alternative for ground transport. 0 1 2 3 4

Environment

Environmental effects (eg noise, vibration, energy savings, severance). 0 1 2 3 4

Impacts on the environment, expressed in monetary terms where possible. 0 1 2 3 4

Results of demand forecasts

Revealed preference surveys of passengers. 0 1 2 3 4

Stated preference surveys of prospective passengers. 0 1 2 3 4 5. From the list below, please choose what you believe are the five most important factors for the success of a rail/ink from the city centre to the airport. Please rank your choices from 1 (most important) to 5 (least important):

POSSIBLE SUCCESS FACTOR RANK (1-5)* Transport alternatives • rail travel time to city centre when compared with other ground transport modes • cost of alternative ground transport, including fares, travel & waiting time, parking fees and so on Train service characteristics • fares charged to rail passengers • maintenance regime for rail stations • security at stations- for example, number of security guards, closed circuit TV monitoring, station staff duty at all times, and so on

• availability of station amenities, such as food & drink, toilets, shops • friendly, courteous, helpful station staff • type of train services offered -that is, suburban or metro services; rail in tunnel, at ground level or elevated • on board services on trains -for example, telephones, food & beverage services • comfort of train seating, smoothness of train ride Interchange & accessibility • rail station located in city centre • number of rail stations which passengers can reach without changing trains • number of train stops between city centre and airport • airport rail station located near baggage claim area • availability of airline baggage check in services • provision for baggage carts and suitcases on trains • disabled access • directional signs posted frequently throughout airport terminal to guide passengers to and from the rail station at the airport • provision of information (which describes fares, schedules and best routes to popular destinations) that can be easily understood by persons unfamiliar with the system and the community Transport market potential • existing passenger demand for ground transport from the city to the airport • growth in overall ground transport market (including changes in land uses) from provision of rail service to the airport * Note: choose most important five only.

THANK YOU FOR TAKING TIME TO COMPLETE THIS QUESTIONNAIRE SS8Jppe ~8UJ8~U!

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{..U!'e6e nOfi.JOBJUOO aM fi.eiN APPENDIXE AIRPORT AND RAIL OPERATOR INFORMATION link internet site access date Amsterdam-AMS Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, Ground Transport 17/9/02 www.Schiphol.nl Amsterdam-AMS Netherlands Railways Rail Journey Planner 17/9/02 www.ns.nl/domestic Amsterdam-AMS Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Amsterdam-AMS Airwise Web Site 17/9/02 www.airwise.com/airports/europe Atlanta-ATL Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Atlanta-A TL City Trains (MARTA) 17/9/02 www .atlanta-airport.com/ Atlanta-ATL Quick Aid Airport Transport Information 17/9/02 www .quickaid.com Atlanta-ATL Metro Planet Web Site 17/9/02 www .metropla.net Baltimore-BWI Airport Guide 17/9/02 www.concierge.com/maps/airportguides Baltimore-BWI Ground Transport 17/9/02 www. bwiairport.com Baltimore-BWI Quick Aid Airport Transport Information 17/9/02 www .quickaid.com Baltimore-BWI Passenger Statistics 317/01 www. bwiairport. com/stats/stats 1951 to 2000.htm - Baltimore-BWI Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Baltimore-BWI Metro Planet Web Site 17/9/02 www.metropla.net Bangkok-BKK Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Barcelona-BeN Airpmt Guide 17/9/02 www.concierge.com/maps/airportguides Barcelona-BCN Airwise Web Site 17/9/02 www.airwise.com/airports/europe Berlin-SXF Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Berlin-TXL Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge. com/maps/airportguides Berlin-TXL Airwise Web Site 17/9/02 www.airwise.com/airports/europe Berlin-THF Airpmt Guide 17/9/02 www.concierge.com/maps/airportguides Birmin~ham-BHX Birmingham Intemational Airport www.bhx.co.uk/ 17/9/02 link internet site access date Boston-BOS Airport Guide 17/9/02 www.concierge.com/maps/airportguides Boston-BOS Quick Aid Airport Transport Information 17/9/02 www .quickaid.com Boston-BOS Metro Planet Web Site 17/9/02 www .metropla.net Bremen-ERE Bremen Airport, Getting Here 17/9/02 www.airport-bremen.de/2000 UK/getting/getting-uk.html Brisbane-ENE Queensland Rail Citytrain 17/9/02 qroti.bit.net.au/citytrain/exp/air.html Brisbane-ENE The High Way to the Airport 17/9/02 www.transinfo.qld.gov.au/AirTrainhome Page.html Brussels-BRU Brussels Airport, To and From Airport 17/9/02 www.brusselsairport.be/e/to from airport Brussels-BRU Belgian Railways 17/9/02 www.b-rail.be/rnvn/e/welcome/airport.html Brussels-BRU Airwise Web Site 17/9/02 www .airwise.com/airports/europe Chicago-MDW Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Chicago-MDW The New Midway Terminal 17/9/02 www .chicagoairports.com/ Chicago-ORD Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Chicago-ORD Quick Aid Airport Transpmt Information 17/9/02 www .quickaid.com Chicago-ORD Chicago Transit Authority, Rail Map to/from O'Hare and 17/9/02 Chicago-MDW Midway Airports www.transitchicago.com/ Chicago-ORD Metro Planet Web Site 17/9/02 Chicago-MDW www .metropla.net Cleveland-CLE Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Cleveland-CLE Metro Planet Web Site 17/9/02 www .metropla.net Dusseldorf-DUS Dusseldorf Airport 17/9/02 www .dusseldorf-international. de/ Dusseldorf-DUS Airport Guide 17/9/02 www.concierge.com/maps/airportguides Frankfurt-FRA Frankfurt Airport 17/9/02 www .frankfurt-airport.de/ Frankfurt-FRA Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Frankfurt-FRA Airwise Web Site 17/9/02 www .airwise.com/airports/europe link internet site access date Geneva-GVA Airport Guide 17/9/02 www.concierge.com/maps/airportguides Geneva-GVA Airwise Web Site 17/9/02 www .airwise.com/airports/europe Glasgow-PIK Prestwick International Airport 17/9/02 www.glasgow.pwk.com Glasgow-PIK Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Glasgow-PIK BAA Web Site 17/9/02 www.baa. uk/main/airports Hong Kong-HKG Hong Kong International Airport 17/9/02 www .hkairport.com Hong Kong-HKG Airport Guide 17/9/02 www.concierge.com/maps/airportguides London-LGW Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides London-LGW BAA Web Site 17/9/02 www .baa.uk/main/airports London-LGW Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides London-LGW Airwise Web Site 17/9/02 www .airwise.com/airports/europe London-LHR Airport Guide 17/9/02 www.concierge.com/maps/airportguides London-LHR BAA Web Site 17/9/02 www .baa.uk/main/airports London-LHR Ailwise Web Site 17/9/02 www. airwise. com/airports/europe London-LCY Airport Guide 17/9/02 www.concierge.com/maps/airportguides London-LCY London City Airport Online, Access by Public Transport 17/9/02 www .londoncityairport.com London-EGMC Southend Airport (Ground Access) 17/9/02 www .southendairport.net London-EGMC Street map showing Victoria Street Station 17/9/02 www.streetmap.co.uk London-STN Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides London-STN BAA Web Site 17/9/02 www.baa.uk/main/airports London-STN Airwise Web Site 17/9/02 www .airwise.com/airports/europe Los Angeles-LAX Quick Aid Airport Transport Information 17/9/02 www .quickaid.com link internet site access date Los Angeles-LAX Metro Planet Web Site 17/9/02 www .metropla.net Madrid-MAD Airwise Web Site 17/9/02 www .airwise.com/airports/europe Manchester-MAN Airport Guide 17/9/02 www.concierge.com/maps/airportguides Manchester-MAN Manchester Airport 17/9/02 www.manairport.co. uk Manchester-MAN Airwise Web Site 17/9/02 www .airwise.com/airports/europe Middlesborough-MME Teesside Airport, Travel Information 17/9/02 www.airport.teesside.com/ Milan-MXP Airport Guide 17/9/02 www.concierge.com/maps/airportguides Milan-MXP Airwise Web Site 17/9/02 www .airwise.com/airports/europe Munich-MUC Metroplanet Web Site 17/9/02 www .metropla.net Munich-MUC Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides New York-JFK Quick Aid Airport Transport Information 17/9/02 www .quickaid.com New York-JFK JFK Ground Access Information 17/9/02 www. panynj .gov/aviation/jgrmmain.htm New York-JFK Map ofNew York Subway System 17/9/02 www.columbia. edu/-brennan/subway New York-JFK Metro Planet Web Site 17/9/02 www .metropla.net New York-EWR Quick Aid Airport Transport Information 17/9/02 www.quickaid.com Newcastle- NCL Journey Planner 17/9/02 www.tyneandwearmetro.co.uk Newcastle-NCL Newcastle Airport 17/9/02 www .newcastleairport.com/getting.asp Newcastle-NCL Map of Newcastle region 17/9/02 www .streetmap.co. uk Oakland-OAK Quick Aid Airport Transport Information 17/9/02 www .quickaid.com Oakland-OAK Air-BART 17/9/02 www. transitinfo.org/Airports/ AirBART.html Osaka-KIX Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Oslo-OSL Airport Guide 17/9/02 www.concierge.com/maps/airportguides link internet site access date Oslo-OSL Oslo International Airport, Airport Express Train 17/9/02 www. vvn.no/gardermo.htm Paris-CDG Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Paris-CDG Airwise Web Site 17/9/02 www .airwise.com/airports/europe Paris-PRY Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Paris-ORY Airwise Web Site 17/9/02 www .airwise.com/airports/europe Philadelphia-PHL Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Philadelphia-PHL Quick Aid Airport Transport Information 17/9/02 www.quickaid.com Philadelphia-PHL Metro Planet Web Site 17/9/02 www.metropla.net Porto Alegre-PGP Metro Planet Web Site 17/9/02 www.metropla.net Rome-FCO Airport Guide 17/9/02 www.concierge.com/maps/airportguides Rome-FCO Airwise Web Site 17/9/02 www .airwise.com/airports/europe San Francisco Bay Area Airport Service (San Fancisco, Oakland International and 17/9/02 San Jose International airports) www.transitinfo.org San Francisco Bay Area Metro Planet Web Site 17/9/02 www.metropla.net San Francisco Bay Area BART system map 1817/01 www.transitinfo.org San Francisco-SFO Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides San Francisco-SFO Quick Aid Airport Transport Information 17/9/02 www.quickaid.com San Francisco-SFO San Francisco International Airport Shuttle 1217/01 www .transitinfo.org/Sched/CX/SFO/M/ Seoul-GIM Seoul Kimpo Airport 17/9/02 www .airwise.com/airports/apac/ St Louis-STL Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides St Louis-STL Airport Web Site 17/9/02 www .lambert-stlouis. com Stockholm-ARN Arlanda Express 22/5/03 www .arlandaexpress.com Sydney-SYD Airp01t Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides link internet site access date Sydney-SYD Airport Web Site 17/9/02 www.sydneyairport.com.au Tokyo-HND Airport Guide 17/9/02 www. concierge.com/maps/airportguides Tokyo-NRT Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Tokyo-NRT Transport To and From Narita 16/6/99 www .narita-airport.or.jp/airport_ e/access_ e/ acce nrt/trnsmp e.html Tokyo-NRT Skyliner Departure Times from Ueno and Nippori 17/9/02 www .keisei.co.jp/keisei/tetudou/accesse/ Valencia-VeL Access to the Congress Centre 22/6/99 www .iabparis.com/valencia!us/center/pgs/ centr.access.htm Valencia-VCL Metro Planet Web Site 17/9/02 www .metropla.net Vienna-WlE Vienna International Airport 17/9/02 www. viennaairport.com Washington-lAD Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Washington-lAD Quick Aid Airport Transport Information 17/9/02 www .quickaid.com Washington-lAD Metro Planet Web Site 17/9/02 www .metropla.net Washington-DCA Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides Washington-DCA Quick Aid Airport Transport Information 17/9/02 www .quickaid.com Washington-DCA Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge. com/maps/airport~uides Washington-DCA Metro Planet Web Site 17/9/02 www .metropla.net Zurich-ZRH Zurich Airport 17/9/02 www .uniqueairport.com Zurich-ZRH Airport Guide 17/9/02 www .concierge.com/maps/airportguides APPENDIXF REGIONAL POPULATION SOURCES city internet site access date Amsterdam Bevolking der gemeenten van Nederland op I 9/7/99 januari 1995, Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, from Global Statistics website www.stats.demon.nl./europe/netherlands.htm Atlanta 1996 population estimates from U.S. Cities with 7/7/99 Population Over 50,000 www .infoplease.com/ipalA0762524.html Baltimore 1996 population estimates from U.S. Cities with 7/7/99 Population Over 50,000 www .infoplease.com/ipa!A0762524.html Bangkok 1996 Demographic Yearbook, United Nations, 7/7/99 cited in World's 50 Most Populous Cities, www .infoplease.com/ipalA0762524.html Barcelona lnstituto Nacional de Estadistica, 1994, from 917199 Global Statistics website www .stats.demon.nl./europe/spain.htm Berlin 1994 population estimates from Global Statistics 9/7/99 website www.stats.demon.nl./europe/~ennany.htm Birmingham 1994 estimated population, United Nations, 1998, 9/7/99 from Global Statistics website www .stats.demon.nl/europe/uk.htm Boston 1996 population estimates from U.S. Cities with 7/7/99 Population Over 50,000 www .infoplease.com/ipalA0762524.html Bremen 1994 population estimates from Global Statistics 9/7/99 website www .stats.demon.nl/europe/germany.htm Brussels Book ofthe Year 1997, Encyclopedia Brittanica, 9/7/99 from Global Statistics website www.stats.demon.nl/europe/belgium.htm Chicago 1996 Demographic Yearbook, United Nations, 7/7/99 cited in World's 50 Most Populous Cities, www .infoplease.com/ipalA0762524.html Cleveland 1996 population estimates from U.S. Cities with 7/7/99 Population Over 50,000 www .infoplease.com/ipa/A07 62524.html Darlington 1994 estimated population, United Nations, 1998, 917/99 from Global Statistics webstie www .stats.demon.nl/europe/uk.htm Dusseldorf 1994 population estimates from Global Statistics 9/7/99 website www .stats.demon.nl./europe/germany.htm city internet site access date Frankfurt 1994 population estimates from Global Statistics 9/7/99 website www.stats.demon.nl./europe/germany.htm Glasgow 1994 estimated population, United Nations, 1998, 9/7/99 from Global Statistics website www .stats.demon.nlleurope/uk.htm Geneva Federal Office of Statistics, Switzerland, 1991, 917/99 from Global Statistics website www .stats.demon.nl./europe/switzerland.htm Hong Kong 1996 Demographic Yearbook, United Nations, 7/7/99 cited in World's 50 Most Populous Cities, www .infoplease.com/ipa/A0762524.html London 1994 estimated population, United Nations, 1998, 917199 from Global Statistics webstie www .stats.demon.nl/europe/uk.htm Los Angeles 1996 Demographic Yearbook, United Nations, 7/7/99 cited in World's 50 Most Populous Cities, www .infop1ease.com/ipalA0762524.html Manchester 1994 estimated population, United Nations, 1998, 9/7/99 from Global Statistics webstie www .stats.demon.nl/europe/uk.htm Malaga Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, 1994, from 9/7/99 Global Statistics website www .stats.demon.nl./europe/spain.htm Mexico City 1996 Demographic Yearbook, United Nations, 7/7/99 cited in World's 50 Most Populous Cities, www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762524.html Milan Institute Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT), 1993, 917/99 from Global Statistics website www .stats.demon.nl./europe/italy .htm Munich 1994 population estimates from Global Statistics 917/99 website ------M- www .stats.demon.nl./europe/germany .htm Newark 1996 population estimates from U.S. Cities with 7/7/99 Population Over 50,000 www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762524.html New York 1996 Demographic Yearbook, United Nations, 717/99 cited in World's 50 Most Populous Cities, www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762524.html Newcastle-Upon-Tyne 1994 estimated population, United Nations, 1998, 9/7199 from Global Statistics webstie www .stats.demon.nl/europe/uk.htm Oakland 1996 population estimates from U.S. Cities with 7/7/99 Population Over 50,000 www .infoplease.com/ipalA07 62524.html city internet site access date Osaka Global Statistics website 917/99 www .stats. demon.nl./asia/japancy .htm Oslo Statistiks Sentralbyra, Norway, from Global 1217/99 Statistics Website www .stats.demon.nVeurope/norway .htm Paris 1990 Census data from Global Statistics website 917/99 www.stats.demon.nl./europe/france.htm Philadelphia 1996 population estimates from U.S. Cities with 717/99 Population Over 50,000 www .infoplease.com/ipa/A07 62524.html Rome Instituto Nazionale di Statistica (!STAT), 1993, 9/7/99 from Global Statistics website www .stats.dem on.nl./europe/italy .htm San Francisco 1996 population estimates from U.S. Cities with 717/99 Population Over 50,000 www .infoplease.com/ipa/A07 62524.html Seoul 1996 Demographic Yearbook, United Nations, 7/7/99 cited in World's 50 Most Populous Cities, www .infoplease.com/ipa/A0762524.html StLouis 1996 population estimates from U.S. Cities with 7/7/99 Population Over 50,000 www .infoplease.com/ipa/A0762524.html Sydney 1996 Demographic Yearbook, United Nations, 7/7/99 cited in World's 50 Most Populous Cities, www .infop1ease.com/ipa/A07 62524.html Tokyo 1996 Demographic Yearbook, United Nations, 7/7/99 cited in World's 50 Most Populous Cities, www .infoplease.com/ipa/A07 62524.html Valencia lnstituto Nacional de Estadistica, 1994, from 9/7/99 Global Statistics website www.stats.demon.nl./europe/spain.htm Washington 1996 population estimates from U.S. Cities with 7/7/99 Population Over 50,000 ----- www .infoplease.com/ipa/A07 62524.html Valencia Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, 1994, from 917199 Global Statistics website www .stats.demon.nl./europe/spain.htm Vienna Austrian Press and Information Service, 9/7/99 Washington DC, 1994, from Global Statistics website www.stats.demon.nl./europe/austria.htm Zurich Federal Office of Statistics, Switzerland, 1991, 9/7/99 from Global Statistics website www.stats.demon.nl./europe/switzerland.htm Cor(ec ted- L \B

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