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DEPARTMENTS 5 | Feedback 13 | Airline Intel 6 | Who’s Where 56 | Classified 8-9 | First Take 57 | Contact Us 10 | Up Front 57 | Aerospace 11 | Going Concerns Calendar 12 | Inside Business After reusable parts have been removed, Aviation 32 the recycling focus shifts to aluminum.
FEATURES 28 | Boeing 737 MAX return timeline 44 | Pentagon preps boutique industry remains uncertain for large-scale production 14 | Crew Dragon Debut NASA and SpaceX are poised for 30 | ADS-B and COVID-19: Air traffic 45 | MBDA patent offers glimpse into the first U.S. orbital spaceflight reflects pandemic’s impact Europe’s hypersonic weapon plans since the space shuttle CARGO 46 | Raytheon LRSO prize completes 20 | Bad to Worse 31 China pushes cargo expansion, | nuclear upgrade supplier roles The aerospace industry begins mergers with logistics to reshape in response to the 47 | Airbus automated refueling is first effects of the COVID-19 crisis SUSTAINABILITY 37 | The coronavirus crisis will affect step to autonomous capability 32 | Recycling Gets Smart emissions for the long term Owners are dismantling aircraft 52 | Japan boosts detection range by in environmentally sustainable 38 | By plane or by train? COVID-19 fusing radar and IRST ways to recoup their value could mean more travel by rail 53 | Norwegian-U.S. ramjet tie-up 48 | German Rejuvenation 40 | Ambitious flight-test regime could lead to more lethal missiles New airlifter and helo buys are planned for RACER demonstrator CONNECTED AEROSPACE planned, but budgeting for new MANUFACTURING fighters and ISR platforms lags 41 | Airbus targets advances in 54 | Ligado Networks’ drive to 5G production with digital tools threatens GPS after FCC ruling
SPACE DEFENSE VIEWPOINT 16 | Panel sounds the alarm over ISS 23 | Embraer airlifter should survive 58 | Aerospace companies must invest U.S. national lab overseer Boeing joint-venture setback in strategic priorities now 17 | Osiris-Rex clears one test and ON THE COVER prepares for June trial Nine years after the last U.S. human orbital spaceflight, SpaceX is poised to launch NASA astronauts COMMERCIAL AVIATION Robert Behnken, rear, and Douglas Hurley, front, to test its new Crew Dragon spacecraft. The 24 | Pandemic fallout prompts bleak astronauts suited up in March to participate in a full simulation of launch and docking with flight outlook for civil engine market controllers in Houston and SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne, California. SpaceX photo. Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST 26 | European carriers try to determine how business will look after crisis DIGITAL EXTRAS Access exclusive online features from articles accompanied by this icon.
AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 3 Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Bureau Chiefs Auckland IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Adrian [email protected] Market Briefi ngs. Beijing Bradley Perrett [email protected] Cape Canaveral These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] Chicago briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] executives to stay-ahead of the Frankfurt market, identify opportunities and Jens Flottau [email protected] Houston drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] London Tony Osborne [email protected] Los Angeles LEARN MORE: Guy Norris [email protected] aviationweek.com/marketbriefi ngs Lyon Thierry Dubois [email protected] Moscow Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected]
President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon
4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACK
Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] ‘HAVE YOU SEEN MY MAGAZINE?’ tion mechanism to allow it to become a Different Is Not Always Better;
Executive Editors My dad, James E. Hannigan, who propulsor, so three as well. Bonus? Bell Choose Wisely.” The hyscram engine Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] passed away in January, was a long- is testing an electric distributed tailro- concept described in “Hyper Cycle” Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] time subscriber to Aviation Week & tor system—even fewer moving parts. (April 6-19, p. 44) is proof that you Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Space Technology. For decades, I can I predict the Bell will come in as the must choose wisely. Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Editors remember seeing copies of AW&ST in FARA price leader. I could write a book on the flaws and Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, the house. He also had a long career in misconceptions in this concept, but Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- aviation and space technology: Starting Jason Wooden, Mendon, Utah I will just hit the two most egregious: Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, out as a flight-test engineer for Boeing, Turbomachinery operating up to Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lockheed and the U.S. Air Force; mov- REVISING ROCKETS Mach 8. The stagnation inlet air Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble ing to NASA, where he ran the Lunar I read with much interest Irene Klotz’s temperature at Mach 8 is over 5,000F, Fred George Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Module Branch during Apollo; and re- “Price of Reusability” (April 7-20, which exceeds the rotating material Michael O. Lavitt Director, Editorial and Online Production tiring from various NASA contractors p. MRO32). I was corporate director limits even when not rotating. The Andrea Hollowell Associate Managing Editor that worked on the space shuttle. of advanced concepts for McDonnell magnetic bearings would fail at a Lisa Caputo Art Director Douglas when we built and flew the far lower temperature. Cooling the Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm NASA Delta Clipper in 1993, the first rocket superconducting rotating elements is Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Copy Editors to take off and land vertically. After not possible because no suitable low- Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie the DC-XA program was ended temper ature heat sink is available. Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Production Editors because of a landing gear problems I This is why cocooning was invented. Joseph Pries Contributing Photographer felt there was a way to improve on this When compressor stages are turned Rupa Haria Director, Digital Content Strategy approach by doing the following; off, the air passing through will wind- Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq ■ Eliminate the need for the landing mill the blades, absorbing power and Data & Analytics gear by hooking and latching on a pad- reducing the airstream total pressure. Brian Kough Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights ded recovery line sliding up the side of In most propeller aircraft, the blades
Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production the rocket strung between two towers. are feathered when the engine is Terra Deskins ■ Minimize fuel/oxidizer use especially turned off to reduce air drag of a wind- Michael Tint Manager, Military Data Operations for a second-stage rocket by using the milling prop. Editorial Offices James Hannigan, at left in back row. rocket body as a low-density decelera- Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Although in later years he developed tor by bringing the rocket down rotat- augmenter. In this concept, the air Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 dementia, and slowly his interests and ing about a lateral axis and perpendic- passing through the superconducting 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe abilities dwindled to where he would ular to the direction of travel. power turbine has power extracted, Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 only sit in his chair all day long, doing ■ Minimize heating by performing which then powers the augmenter. dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Bureau Chiefs Auckland nothing (or napping), he never lost multiple rebound maneuvers off the The turbine is at most 70% efficient IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Adrian [email protected] interest in his AW&ST magazine. He atmosphere to cool in space before and the MHD accelerator much Market Briefi ngs. Beijing would thumb through the magazine coming back in and rapidly turning less. Even if both are 100% efficient, Bradley Perrett [email protected] until the very end. We don’t know how down to thick air to decelerate. diverting energy from a low-energy Cape Canaveral much he understood, but he always ■ Keep the crew compartment at- stream to a high-energy stream will These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] asked, “Have you seen my Aviation tached to the rocket to reduce refur- reduce thrust. Chicago briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] Week magazine?” And it was always bishment and make it easier to use executives to stay-ahead of the Frankfurt there for him. the rocket fuselage as a low-density Mel Bulman, Fair Oaks, California market, identify opportunities and Jens Flottau [email protected] decelerator. Houston Thomas Hannigan, Silver Spring, ■ Allow a large center of gravity range drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] Maryland using small control fins by rotating the CORRECTIONS London rocket, preferably about a lateral axis. “Sprawling Alaska Complex Becomes Tony Osborne [email protected] FARA TOO COMPLEX ■ Enable the crew compartment to Newest Home for F-35” (April 20- Los Angeles May 3, p. 46), should have stated that LEARN MORE: Guy Norris [email protected] As I gaze at the Future Attack Recon- rapidly separate from the rocket. Lyon naissance Aircraft (FARA) contend- It wouldn’t take that much to mod- Eielson AFB has one of the world’s aviationweek.com/marketbriefi ngs Thierry Dubois [email protected] er renderings in “Boeing Reveals ify either SpaceX or ULA rockets and largest runways. Moscow Long-Awaited FARA Design” (March 9- spacecraft to use this approach. Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] 22, p. 26), I’m taken back to my first day “COVID-19 Complicated T901 Mile- Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] on the job as an 18-year-old private in Randy McDonnell, Las Vegas stone as FARA Awaits New Engine Washington an Army Reserve Medevac unit, when Design” (April 20-May 3, p. 40) should Jen DiMascio [email protected] I was handed a grease gun and ordered ‘CHOOSE WISELY’ have stated that a critical design Wichita to lube a UH-1 Huey sitting nearby. I have retired after 50+ years in review milestone for the GE Aviation Molly McMillin [email protected] I came to appreciate the phrase “a advanced propulsion projects at GE T901 turboshaft engine originally helicopter is 10,000 spare parts flying and Aerojet. My professional tag scheduled in the third quarter now President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton in close formation.” line is “Better Is Always Different, could slip into the fourth quarter. Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Of all the FARA proposals, only Anne McMahon one has two moving rotors: the Bell Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, Invictus. The AVX CCH? Four. The 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: Sikorsky Raider and Boeing? Three. [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity; The Karem AR40’s tailrotor has a rota- a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required.
4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 5 WHO’S WHERE
The Universities Space Research Association Woodward Inc. has reappointed Robert F. Weber, Jr., as has named Margaret Meixner director of vice chairman and added the role of chief financial officer, mission operations for the Stratospheric in response to ongoing economic uncertainties due to the Observatory For Infrared Astronomy COVID-19 pandemic. He succeeds Jonathan W. Thayer, (SOFIA), NASA’s major airborne astro- who has left the role of chief financial officer. nomical observatory. SOFIA staff also will Astroscale, an early startup in the satellite-debris- team with the Deutsches SOFIA Institute removal market, has hired Dave Fischer as U.S. vice to boost productivity and prepare for the president of business development and advanced sys- James Webb Space Telescope’s entry into service. tems and David Hebert as U.S. communications director. Acro Aircraft Seating has hired Neil Cairns as CEO. Fischer had led business development for RUAG Space Cairns has experience in all seating classes and a track USA and held several roles with Ball Aerospace. Hebert record of lean-process and performance improvement. was The Aerospace Corp. senior communications strate- He had been Collins Aerospace vice gist and government liaison. president and general manager and pre- Summit Aviation has hired U.S. Army viously ran the B/E Aerospace seating Master Sgt. (ret.) Frank Reuter as direc- facility in Kilkeel, Northern Ireland. tor of maintenance. Reuter was AAR Lift Ann Ackerson has been hired as BAE maintenance and engineering vice presi- Systems’ chief procurement officer and dent, lead rotary wing mechanic for Black named to the senior leadership team and Water Aviation, Melbourne, Florida, and to chair its global procurement council. Presidential Airways senior maintenance Ackerson had held executive positions at Freeman and manager. He succeeds John Bonnell, who is retiring. Dresser-Rand. She succeeds Paul Smith. Duncan Aviation has promoted Pete Marte to manager Draken International has elected Joseph Ford as CEO of the White Plains, New York, and Oxford, Connecticut, and board member. Ford was president at DynAviation. satellite avionics shops and Aaron Jensen to manager of He succeeds founder and CEO Jared Isaacman, who will the Seattle satellite avionics shop, from supervisor. Dun- become the nonexecutive board chairman. can plans to launch an aircraft interior disinfecting capability soon. Aeronautics Group has promoted Matan Perry (Perez) to vice president of marketing and business development from director. His military experience Ensuring with a wide variety of UAV platform types has served clients building UAV safety and performance squadrons within their own territory. for today and tomorrow Richard Goglia has been named an independent di- rector for Triumph Group. A former Raytheon treasurer, Goglia will join the audit and finance committees. CDB Aviation, a wholly owned Irish subsidiary of China Development Bank Financial Leasing, has hired Jorge Garcia as senior vice president for commercial and Alan Mangels as vice president for commercial, both in the Americas. Garcia was AerCap leasing vice president. Mangels was Rolls-Royce vice president of business aviation sales and marketing. Spaceflight launch services has hired Dennis Wiessner as general counsel. He With light weight, small volume, was vice president/general counsel of outstanding environmental robust- Sea Launch when it was an international ness and unmatched performance joint venture of Boeing. He also worked LITEF’s Attitude and Heading for the Lockheed Martin spinoff As- Reference Systems deliver value trolink, was vice president, general counsel and corporate to the operators of all types of civil secretary for Italy-based Leonardo Helicopter’s Philadel- and military aircraft. phia subsidiary, and held a similar role at France-based Thales Group’s California avionics business unit. c Inertial Systems made by To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files (no PDFs) and photos to: whoswhere@aviation- For more information on our products, please contact [email protected] week.com For additional information on companies and individuals Northrop Grumman LITEF GmbH, Loerracher Strasse 18, 79115 Freiburg, Germany listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.
6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST WHO’S WHERE
The Universities Space Research Association Woodward Inc. has reappointed Robert F. Weber, Jr., as has named Margaret Meixner director of vice chairman and added the role of chief financial officer, mission operations for the Stratospheric in response to ongoing economic uncertainties due to the Observatory For Infrared Astronomy COVID-19 pandemic. He succeeds Jonathan W. Thayer, (SOFIA), NASA’s major airborne astro- who has left the role of chief financial officer. nomical observatory. SOFIA staff also will Astroscale, an early startup in the satellite-debris- team with the Deutsches SOFIA Institute removal market, has hired Dave Fischer as U.S. vice to boost productivity and prepare for the president of business development and advanced sys- James Webb Space Telescope’s entry into service. tems and David Hebert as U.S. communications director. Acro Aircraft Seating has hired Neil Cairns as CEO. Fischer had led business development for RUAG Space Cairns has experience in all seating classes and a track USA and held several roles with Ball Aerospace. Hebert record of lean-process and performance improvement. was The Aerospace Corp. senior communications strate- He had been Collins Aerospace vice gist and government liaison. SEPTEMBER 14-16, 2020 president and general manager and pre- Summit Aviation has hired U.S. Army Hôtel Palladia viously ran the B/E Aerospace seating Master Sgt. (ret.) Frank Reuter as direc- facility in Kilkeel, Northern Ireland. tor of maintenance. Reuter was AAR Lift Toulouse, France Ann Ackerson has been hired as BAE maintenance and engineering vice presi- Systems’ chief procurement officer and dent, lead rotary wing mechanic for Black named to the senior leadership team and Water Aviation, Melbourne, Florida, and to chair its global procurement council. Presidential Airways senior maintenance Designed for Leaders and Decision-makers from OEMs Ackerson had held executive positions at Freeman and manager. He succeeds John Bonnell, who is retiring. Dresser-Rand. She succeeds Paul Smith. Duncan Aviation has promoted Pete Marte to manager to Supplier Tiers in the Commercial Aviation Suppliers Industry Draken International has elected Joseph Ford as CEO of the White Plains, New York, and Oxford, Connecticut, and board member. Ford was president at DynAviation. satellite avionics shops and Aaron Jensen to manager of He succeeds founder and CEO Jared Isaacman, who will the Seattle satellite avionics shop, from supervisor. Dun- At SpeedNews’ 21st Annual Commercial Aviation Industry Suppliers Topics focus on key components driving the industry: become the nonexecutive board chairman. can plans to launch an aircraft interior Conference - Europe, aircraft and engine manufacturers will present disinfecting capability soon. status reports on their programs. Industry experts will offer delivery and Supply chain trends and the future landscape Aeronautics Group has promoted Raw materials and manufacturers supply chain Matan Perry (Perez) to vice president retirement forecasts, and review the current economic status of the industry. Managing supplier risks and investments of marketing and business development Maintenance and subcontractor issues will also be addressed. from director. His military experience OEM product strategy and market developments Ensuring with a wide variety of UAV platform types has served clients building UAV At the Conference, Delegates will meet face-to-face with industry peers and Aircraft production and delivery forecasts safety and performance Market and technology drivers from the squadrons within their own territory. develop a valuable network of industry experts, as well as gain knowledge for today and tomorrow Richard Goglia has been named an independent di- OEM perspective rector for Triumph Group. A former Raytheon treasurer, and updates enabling them to adjust business plans and strategies in this Who benefits from attending? Goglia will join the audit and finance committees. dynamic industry. CDB Aviation, a wholly owned Irish subsidiary of Strategic planning, marketing executives China Development Bank Financial Leasing, has hired and business development leaders Jorge Garcia as senior vice president for commercial and Supply chain executives and senior decision makers Alan Mangels as vice president for commercial, both in What Delegates say about attending SpeedNews Conferences the Americas. Garcia was AerCap leasing vice president. Equipment OEMs, sub-tier manufacturers, Mangels was Rolls-Royce vice president material and parts suppliers of business aviation sales and marketing. Industry analysts Spaceflight launch services has hired Lessors and financial community members Dennis Wiessner as general counsel. He Economic development executives With light weight, small volume, was vice president/general counsel of 81% 93% outstanding environmental robust- Sea Launch when it was an international joint venture of Boeing. He also worked ness and unmatched performance Sponsorships LITEF’s Attitude and Heading for the Lockheed Martin spinoff As- Sponsorships enable you to promote your brand, Reference Systems deliver value trolink, was vice president, general counsel and corporate products and/or services on the expansive Aviation to the operators of all types of civil secretary for Italy-based Leonardo Helicopter’s Philadel- First time Delegates report they Delegates report they would Week Network, and on-site throughout the phia subsidiary, and held a similar role at France-based would “likely” or “very likely” attend recommend a Conference Conference. Customized sponsorships are also and military aircraft. available. The earlier you begin your Sponsorship, Thales Group’s California avionics business unit. c another Conference. to a colleague or peer. the more valuable it is! The Aviation Week Network Inertial Systems averages more than two million page views per month — that’s millions of potential views of your made by To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or logo if you start today! To become a Sponsor attached text files (no PDFs) and photos to: whoswhere@aviation- contact Joanna Speed, Managing Director, A&D Conferences at +1-310-857-7691. For more information on our products, please contact [email protected] week.com For additional information on companies and individuals Northrop Grumman LITEF GmbH, Loerracher Strasse 18, 79115 Freiburg, Germany listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, Register and Learn More at: telephone U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S. 2901 28th Street, Suite 100 • Santa Monica, CA 90405, USA Conf.Events/ACE Tel: +1-310-857-7691 • Email: [email protected]
6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FIRST TAKE
as the location for a $300 million devel- opment, production and support facility COMMERCIAL AVIATION for the AS2 supersonic business jet. Boeing is to cut its workforce by 10%— 15% in commercial aircraft and global China’s EHang has partnered with the services—and cut airliner production city of Hezhou in Guangxi province to rates in response to the COVID-19 cri- build the first dedicated vertiport for Aviation Week Network sis. Airbus cut its production rates by its electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing Wins Three Neal Awards a third in April and is focusing on pre- air taxis. The Aviation Week Network has won three serving cash (page 20). Jesse H. Neal Awards, the business-to-busi- Zipline drones are delivering COVID-19 ness equivalent of the Pulitzer Prize. The Embraer has launched arbitration test samples collected from rural clin- Neal judges awarded a Best News Coverage against Boeing, accusing the U.S. giant ics in Ghana to laboratories in the cap- honor to Air Transport and Safety Editor of wrongfully terminating an agreement ital, Accra, and Kumasi, the country’s Sean Broderick and his colleagues on the to form a commercial aircraft joint ven- second-largest city. editorial and data teams for their coverage of ture. Boeing canceled the deal on April the Boeing 737 MAX saga in Aviation Week & 25, worth $4.2 billion to Embraer, citing DEFENSE Space Technology, Aviation Daily and on the a failure to resolve critical conditions A German order for Boeing Super Hor- Check 6 podcast. And Neal Awards for Best (page 20). nets could lead to “massive, lasting harm,” to the country’s defense indus- Instructional Content and Best Technical Airbus and Rolls-Royce have terminated try, Airbus warns. Germany also pro- Content went to Business & Commercial the E-Fan X hybrid-electric propulsion poses buying 93 Eurofighters (page 50). Aviation writers Fred George, James Albright, demonstrator as they scale back research David Esler and Patrick Veillette. The winners and development activities in response The first of three Saab GlobalEye swing- were announced on April 17. to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. role surveillance platforms was deliv- ered to the United Arab Emirates air The European Commission plans to fi- force at Al-Dhafra airbase near Abu fan engines for the Boeing B-52H fleet. nalize social distancing and sanitation Dhabi on April 29. guidelines for aviation by mid-May, pav- Kazan Aviation Plant has handed over ing the way for flights to resume in a The U.S. Missile Defense Agency is seek- the first two midlife-upgrade Tu-160M unified way. ing bids for an $11 billion effort to devel- bombers for state trials ahead of a op a new generation of national missile scheduled entry into service in 2021. The UK government has approved trials defense interceptors. It plans to award using a fixed-wing unmanned aircraft to two contracts. The Russian government has commis- fly medical supplies from the mainland sioned the Mikoyan and Sukhoi design to the Isle of Wight. Three companies have received the U.S. bureaus to study aerodynamics for a Air Force’s second draft solicitation new lightweight fighter, says the RIA Aerion has selected Melbourne, Florida, for a contract to supply 608 new turbo- Novosti news agency.
Global Recession and the Risk to Business Aviation
1,200 The current downcycle for 40% business jets continues to be the worst since the 1980s. 1,000 And given the strong historical correlation between corporate profits and aircraft deliveries— 800 31% underlined by the declines af- ter the 1981 and 2001 economic 600 recessions—COVID-19 presents 61% a great risk in the foreseeable future, with expected profit de- 400 cline and reduced wealth, say JP Morgan analysts.
200 Sources: Teal Group, The General Aviation Manufacturers Association, company 0 reports and JP Morgan estimates 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021E
8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FIRST TAKE as the location for a $300 million devel- The U.S. Air Force has selected Raytheon VIEW FROM WASHINGTON opment, production and support facility Technologies for the $4.5 billion Long- COMMERCIAL AVIATION for the AS2 supersonic business jet. Range Standoff cruise missile program Two Is Company in Defense Launch Boeing is to cut its workforce by 10%— two years early, closing down Lockheed 15% in commercial aircraft and global China’s EHang has partnered with the Martin’s rival effort (page 46). The heavy-lift launch market is unlikely to support more than two services—and cut airliner production city of Hezhou in Guangxi province to U.S. launch providers in the long term, according to a long-awaited Aviation Week Network rates in response to the COVID-19 cri- build the first dedicated vertiport for SPACE RAND report commissioned by the U.S. Air Force. sis. Airbus cut its production rates by its electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing Wins Three Neal Awards It is unlikely the heavy-lift launch mar- a third in April and is focusing on pre- air taxis. The Aviation Week Network has won three ket can support more than two U.S. Highlighting the short-term schedule risks of transitioning to serving cash (page 20). Jesse H. Neal Awards, the business-to-busi- providers in the long term, concludes a new providers, the study supports the National Security Space Zipline drones are delivering COVID-19 ness equivalent of the Pulitzer Prize. The long-awaited RAND report for the U.S. Launch (NSSL) strategy of continuing to deliver tailored support Embraer has launched arbitration test samples collected from rural clin- Air Force. Blue Origin, Northrop Grum- Neal judges awarded a Best News Coverage to three launch operators through 2023 while transitioning to against Boeing, accusing the U.S. giant ics in Ghana to laboratories in the cap- honor to Air Transport and Safety Editor man, SpaceX and United Launch Alli- of wrongfully terminating an agreement ital, Accra, and Kumasi, the country’s Sean Broderick and his colleagues on the ance are competing for two contracts two providers for the long term. to form a commercial aircraft joint ven- second-largest city. editorial and data teams for their coverage of for space launches in 2022-2027. The U.S. Space Force plans to award a pair of contracts this ture. Boeing canceled the deal on April the Boeing 737 MAX saga in Aviation Week & 25, worth $4.2 billion to Embraer, citing DEFENSE year for the second phase of NSSL, with Blue Origin, Northrop Space Technology, Aviation Daily and on the Iran’s Qased three-stage launch vehicle a failure to resolve critical conditions A German order for Boeing Super Hor- placed the Nour 1 satellite into a 425- Check 6 podcast. And Neal Awards for Best Grumman, SpaceX and United Launch Alliance competing to (page 20). nets could lead to “massive, lasting km (264-mi.) orbit on April 22, but U.S. provide launches in 2022-27. harm,” to the country’s defense indus- Instructional Content and Best Technical Space Command assesses its intelli- Airbus and Rolls-Royce have terminated try, Airbus warns. Germany also pro- Content went to Business & Commercial gence-gathering capability as minimal. RAND’s assessment shows supporting more than two launch the E-Fan X hybrid-electric propulsion poses buying 93 Eurofighters (page 50). Aviation writers Fred George, James Albright, providers would decrease each vendor’s launch tempo, lowering David Esler and Patrick Veillette. The winners demonstrator as they scale back research Russia’s S7 Group has shelved its Sea reliability and increasing costs. However, the Air Force is under and development activities in response The first of three Saab GlobalEye swing- were announced on April 17. Launch space program until market to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. role surveillance platforms was deliv- conditions improve. pressure to support three launch providers. ered to the United Arab Emirates air The report recommends the Space Force prepare for only two The European Commission plans to fi- force at Al-Dhafra airbase near Abu fan engines for the Boeing B-52H fleet. Premature shutdown of one of nine U.S. providers of heavy-lift launch, one of which may have little nalize social distancing and sanitation Dhabi on April 29. Merlin engines on a SpaceX Falcon 9 guidelines for aviation by mid-May, pav- Kazan Aviation Plant has handed over launch in March was caused by clean- support from the commercial market. The Space Force likely will ing the way for flights to resume in a The U.S. Missile Defense Agency is seek- the first two midlife-upgrade Tu-160M ing fluid trapped inside a sensor ignit- support three providers through 2023, but that does not mean unified way. ing bids for an $11 billion effort to devel- bombers for state trials ahead of a ing (page 14). selecting three companies for NSSL Phase 2, cautions RAND. op a new generation of national missile scheduled entry into service in 2021. The UK government has approved trials defense interceptors. It plans to award The U.S. Defense Department has ob- using a fixed-wing unmanned aircraft to two contracts. The Russian government has commis- jected to a Federal Communications fly medical supplies from the mainland sioned the Mikoyan and Sukhoi design Commission decision to grant Ligado to the Isle of Wight. Three companies have received the U.S. bureaus to study aerodynamics for a Networks a slice of spectrum adjacent 90 YEARS AGO IN Air Force’s second draft solicitation new lightweight fighter, says the RIA to GPS (page 54). AVIATION WEEK Aerion has selected Melbourne, Florida, for a contract to supply 608 new turbo- Novosti news agency. The aviation industry put on a brave face A Falcon 9 lifted off from Kennedy as the pain of the Great Depression deep- Space Center on April 22 to deliver a ened in 1930. Our May 3 issue previewed sixth batch of SpaceX’s Starlink com- the upcoming New York Aircraft Salon, a munications satellites into low Earth Global Recession and the Risk to Business Aviation showcase event for the world’s largest city. orbit (page 14). The eight-day exhibition required a remod- 1,200 The current downcycle for eling of Madison Square Garden to make 40% business jets continues to be OBITUARIES room for 50 airplanes—some hung from the worst since the 1980s. Former NASA Administrator James 1,000 the ceiling—and a wide array of engines And given the strong historical M. Beggs died April 23 in Bethesda, and accessories. A star of the show was the correlation between corporate Maryland. He was 94. During his ten- “mammoth” four-engine Fokker F-32, which profits and aircraft deliveries— ure as administrator in 1981-85, Beggs 800 could carry 30 passengers. Other aircraft 31% underlined by the declines af- oversaw the early era of the space on display included the Consolidated Com- ter the 1981 and 2001 economic shuttle program. A former U.S. Navy modore flying boat, a Boeing fighter “fully recessions—COVID-19 presents submariner, Beggs served as NASA 600 associate administrator in 1968-69, equipped with guns” and the Lockheed 61% a great risk in the foreseeable after which he moved to the Trans- Sirius that Col. Charles Lindbergh and his future, with expected profit de- portation Department where he was wife, Anne, had flown just two weeks earlier they were reducing aircraft prices between cline and reduced wealth, say 400 an advocate for supersonic air trans- to set a new coast-to-coast speed record. $4,000 and $13,000, respectively, while the JP Morgan analysts. portation in 1969-73. “Mr. Beggs led But several of the ads in the magazine Ford Motor Co. touted a nearly 10% cut for the agency during the earliest days of reflected the tough economic times. Fokker its 14-passenger, all-metal 5-AT transport, 200 the space shuttle program and helped and partner General Motors announced lowering the price tag to $50,000. Sources: Teal Group, The General Aviation us open a whole new era of explora- Manufacturers Association, company tion,” says NASA Administrator Jim Read every issue of Aviation Week back to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com 0 reports and JP Morgan estimates Bridenstine. 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021E
8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 9 COMMENTARY UP FRONT RICHARD ABOULAFIA
THE NOT-SO-UNEXPECTED END Winner/Loser: Boeing. The news here is mixed. of the Boeing-Embraer jetliner joint ven- Leaving Airbus with a market segment it cannot ad- ture undoes years of planning by both dress (100-130 seats) is certainly not a welcome out- parties. It also raises many questions come. And Embraer would have been a fantastic source about the future of the 70-120-seat market. But be - of engineers and flight-test resources for Boeing’s next fore those questions are settled, there will clearly be jetliner. Across the board, Embraer would be a natural winners and losers as a result of this development: partner for Boeing in adjacent markets and in future Loser: Embraer’s jetliner business. With Airbus’ product development. acquisition of Bombardier’s C Series, Embraer went On the other hand, Boeing may not design a new from competing with a peer small airframer to com- clean-sheet jetliner for many years. A tie-up with peting with a giant one. It will be hard for Embraer to Mitsubishi could be a nice consolation prize. If it does pressure its suppliers when the volume it offers is a wind up requesting U.S. government financial assis- tiny fraction of Airbus’, a problem that the Boeing joint tance in the coming months, Boeing would not need to venture would have rectified. So E190/195E-2 costs worry about explaining why it just spent $4.2 billion ac- will remain high relative to the A220, resulting in lost quiring a foreign business. Most of all, Boeing can walk profit, market share or both. away from the joint venture with more than $4 billion in Winner: Airbus. The 100-130-seat market segment liquidity to add to its beleaguered balance sheet. is growing and likely to do well in the aftermath of None of these manufacturer outcomes is certain. the COVID-19 crisis as airlines look for jets that allow There are simply too many outstanding variables. them to keep their networks intact with less total ca- How quickly can Embraer recover and reconfigure itself, since it had reorganized in preparation for the joint venture? Will it attract Brazilian government EMBRAER Industry Chaos Winners and losers in the Embraer-Boeing breakup
support due to the COVID-19 aviation market col- lapse? Will it find the resources needed to pursue its new turboprop concept on its own? Will the KC-390 military transport joint venture between Embraer pacity. Airbus will have a much stronger position here and Boeing survive? It is a completely separate joint for the same reasons that Embraer is now weaker: It venture that Boeing says it wants to continue, but it no longer has to worry about a direct competitor with might be hit by fallout from the inevitable acrimony the same level of supply chain muscle and, therefore, following the jetliner joint venture collapse. cost control. The A220’s market share will only grow. There also are the questions of Mitsubishi’s plans to Winner: Mitsubishi. The E175 remains the most acquire a SpaceJet product support apparatus and its popular regional jet on the market today, and with parent company’s tolerance for ongoing cost overruns Boeing’s help it would have increased its market and seemingly interminable program delays. share against the only other regional jet family with The biggest outstanding variable is the ultimate a modern engine, the SpaceJet (formerly the MRJ). position of Embraer. The bitterness emerging with Keeping Embraer as a relatively small airframer gives the joint venture’s dissolution implies that a connec- Mitsubishi a better shot at growing its market share. tion with Boeing is unlikely, but it still remains the The SpaceJet is unlikely to grab the top position, but it most sensible outcome. No level of government sup- is now in a much better place. port can change the fact that it is the only small jetlin- The end of Embraer/Boeing also may free Boeing er prime in an industry filled with giants. Will China to work with Mitsubishi on product support. Collabo- finally admit that the ARJ21 is a failure and move to rating with Boeing on SpaceJet product support was acquire Embraer? Will it be allowed to do so? Are Mitsubishi’s original plan, but this was thrown into dis- there any other partners or purchasers for Embraer’s array by the announcement of Boeing’s Embraer joint jetliner unit? venture. In fact, Mitsubishi’s backup SpaceJet support The end of this joint venture means that for smaller plan, acquisition of Bombardier’s CRJ business for jetliners, market chaos will be accompanied by indus- its service network, is not going to close until the sec- try chaos. That is not a welcome development. c ond half of 2020. Conceivably, Mitsubishi could find a way out of that deal if it can reach an agreement with Contributing columnist Richard Aboulafia is vice president of analy- Boeing in time. sis at Teal Group. He is based in Washington.
10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY COMMENTARY UP FRONT GOING CONCERNS RICHARD ABOULAFIA MICHAEL BRUNO
A&D Revenue Exposure by Market THE NOT-SO-UNEXPECTED END Winner/Loser: Boeing. The news here is mixed. COMPANIES HAVE GOOD QUARTERS of the Boeing-Embraer jetliner joint ven- Leaving Airbus with a market segment it cannot ad- and bad quarters, but rarely does a whole Percent of 2019 Revenues by Market Aerospace ture undoes years of planning by both dress (100-130 seats) is certainly not a welcome out- industry sound like it just got sucker- Aerospace Defense/ Other Company Original parties. It also raises many questions come. And Embraer would have been a fantastic source punched. That’s what the next few weeks Aftermarket Space Government about the future of the 70-120-seat market. But be - of engineers and flight-test resources for Boeing’s next will be like in the aerospace and defense sector, and Equipment fore those questions are settled, there will clearly be jetliner. Across the board, Embraer would be a natural for sure there will be headlines describing industrial AAR 2% 66% 33% 0% winners and losers as a result of this development: partner for Boeing in adjacent markets and in future carnage as the industry gasps for air and works to re- Aerojet Rocketdyne 0 0 100 0 Loser: Embraer’s jetliner business. With Airbus’ product development. cover after COVID-19. AeroVironment 0 0 79 0 acquisition of Bombardier’s C Series, Embraer went On the other hand, Boeing may not design a new The truth is the aerospace and defense (A&D) supply Astronics 43 36 18 2 from competing with a peer small airframer to com- clean-sheet jetliner for many years. A tie-up with chain suddenly is far too large for what is needed, may- CPI Aero 20 5 75 0 peting with a giant one. It will be hard for Embraer to Mitsubishi could be a nice consolation prize. If it does be by a quarter or a third of excess capacity. As a result, pressure its suppliers when the volume it offers is a wind up requesting U.S. government financial assis- quick or methodical cutbacks in manufacturing and Crane Co. 11 5 9 0 tiny fraction of Airbus’, a problem that the Boeing joint tance in the coming months, Boeing would not need to services are expected throughout the syndicates that Cubic Corp. 0 0 43 57 venture would have rectified. So E190/195E-2 costs worry about explaining why it just spent $4.2 billion ac- make airliners, business jets and other aircraft. As pub- DLH Corp. 0 0 45 55 will remain high relative to the A220, resulting in lost quiring a foreign business. Most of all, Boeing can walk lic companies report their latest quarterly financial re- Ducommun 42 6 45 0 profit, market share or both. away from the joint venture with more than $4 billion in sults in late April and May, they will have to address the HEICO 4 49 34 0 Winner: Airbus. The 100-130-seat market segment liquidity to add to its beleaguered balance sheet. year ahead and offer insight into their response plans. Hexcel 68 0 20 0 is growing and likely to do well in the aftermath of None of these manufacturer outcomes is certain. Unfortunately, business as usual prior to COVID-19 is Kratos Defense & Security 0 0 100 0 the COVID-19 crisis as airlines look for jets that allow There are simply too many outstanding variables. not expected until 2022 or later, according to numerous them to keep their networks intact with less total ca- How quickly can Embraer recover and reconfigure analysts and advisors. And that is just too long to carry Mercury Systems 0 0 100 0 itself, since it had reorganized in preparation for the extra financial costs, which means all levels will feel pain. RADA Electronic Industries 0 0 100 0 joint venture? Will it attract Brazilian government “People who didn’t plan for it were unreasonably Spirit AeroSystems 88 5 7 0 naive,” asserts Avitas consultant Adam Pilarski, a The Boeing Co. 52 11 37 0 EMBRAER longtime expert who espoused a bearish view on com- TransDigm Group 26 32 37 0 Industry Chaos mercial aviation long before the Boeing 737 MAX cri- Triumph Group 60 18 20 0 sis started gumming up business models. “There is no Winners and losers in the Notes: Aerospace original equipment and aerospace aftermarket include all commer- magic potion here. You will have less production.” cial transport and business jet exposure. Defense and space includes both original Embraer-Boeing breakup While Pilarski’s comment may come across as harsh, it equipment and aftermarket sales. accurately describes the depth of the coming paradigm Sources: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates support due to the COVID-19 aviation market col- shift for commercial aviation. Yes, perhaps it was too lapse? Will it find the resources needed to pursue its much to have asked OEMs and suppliers to model for a nies receive? This is a significant variable, and as of new turboprop concept on its own? Will the KC-390 95% collapse in passenger air traffic and two-thirds of mid-April, we still did not know how much even sector military transport joint venture between Embraer large commercial aircraft fleets getting parked—includ- leader Boeing will receive (presuming it does). pacity. Airbus will have a much stronger position here and Boeing survive? It is a completely separate joint ing brand-new deliv- Second, the sup- for the same reasons that Embraer is now weaker: It venture that Boeing says it wants to continue, but it eries. But practically ply chain has experi- no longer has to worry about a direct competitor with might be hit by fallout from the inevitable acrimony no one seemed to enced robust vetting the same level of supply chain muscle and, therefore, following the jetliner joint venture collapse. imagine simultaneous The Future With COVID-19 and stress-testing cost control. The A220’s market share will only grow. There also are the questions of Mitsubishi’s plans to cuts to new orders, Three watchpoints for change in A&D supply chains over the past decade. Winner: Mitsubishi. The E175 remains the most acquire a SpaceJet product support apparatus and its standing backlogs Did it work? Record popular regional jet on the market today, and with parent company’s tolerance for ongoing cost overruns and aftermarket revenue streams. Indeed, Pilarski was growth, record mergers and acquisitions, and record Boeing’s help it would have increased its market and seemingly interminable program delays. one of the few who envisioned an environment with much private equity involvement have dramatically consoli- share against the only other regional jet family with The biggest outstanding variable is the ultimate less than the traditional 5% annual growth in air traffic. dated industry (for better or worse). Yes, it meant elim- a modern engine, the SpaceJet (formerly the MRJ). position of Embraer. The bitterness emerging with That is now changing: Airbus has revealed narrow- ination of countless companies, and some smaller sur- Keeping Embraer as a relatively small airframer gives the joint venture’s dissolution implies that a connec- body and widebody production rate cuts of about a vivors remain stressed by technology investments and Mitsubishi a better shot at growing its market share. tion with Boeing is unlikely, but it still remains the third, and Boeing is expected to follow suit any day. meager working capital accounts. But top-tier compa- The SpaceJet is unlikely to grab the top position, but it most sensible outcome. No level of government sup- According to Credit Suisse analysts, such sudden nies have been working to eliminate chokepoints and is now in a much better place. port can change the fact that it is the only small jetlin- rate changes will have a materially negative impact on shore up weak links in their supply chains for the last The end of Embraer/Boeing also may free Boeing er prime in an industry filled with giants. Will China the supply chain because the effect is exponential. “[The few years, ironically as they sought to raise rates. to work with Mitsubishi on product support. Collabo- finally admit that the ARJ21 is a failure and move to supply chain] will need to cut production by much more Finally, many companies became less susceptible one rating with Boeing on SpaceJet product support was acquire Embraer? Will it be allowed to do so? Are as Airbus consumes its inventories—for instance, poten- way or another, especially through revenue diversifica- Mitsubishi’s original plan, but this was thrown into dis- there any other partners or purchasers for Embraer’s tially going to rate 20 on the A320 for some months and tion (see table). Will this lead to resilience? Some say yes. array by the announcement of Boeing’s Embraer joint jetliner unit? ramping up again to 40,” the analysts say. Boeing’s in- “In many ways, the supply chain is now more mature, venture. In fact, Mitsubishi’s backup SpaceJet support The end of this joint venture means that for smaller ventory—including roughly 800 MAXs that are backed diversified and well-positioned to handle this econom- plan, acquisition of Bombardier’s CRJ business for jetliners, market chaos will be accompanied by indus- up with its customers and supplier Spirit AeroSystems ic downturn versus in 2001 and 2008,” says Alex Krutz, its service network, is not going to close until the sec- try chaos. That is not a welcome development. c and are waiting to join its own fleets—is worse. managing director at Patriot Industrial Partners, an ad- ond half of 2020. Conceivably, Mitsubishi could find a Here are three factors to watch for in earnings re- visory firm focused on operations and supply chain. “A way out of that deal if it can reach an agreement with Contributing columnist Richard Aboulafia is vice president of analy- ports to discern how the supply chains will change. large number of suppliers over this last decade have tak- Boeing in time. sis at Teal Group. He is based in Washington. First, how much U.S. government aid will compa- en significant steps to ensure their long-term success.” c
10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 11 COMMENTARY INSIDE BUSINESS AVIATION WILLIAM GARVEY
HERE’S A GAME EVERYBODY PLAYS ond time since joining the company. And just recently, but no one knows the ending for, oh, 25 his work came to my attention again. years or more: “Guess What They’ll Be- To help ease the urgent shortage of personal protec- come and Do.” tive equipment, Safe Flight started making face shields As a father, friend and neighbor, I’ve played that game for emergency room personnel on the front lines of for decades. I well remember the day I was introduced as the battle with COVID-19. But Chairman/CEO Randy the new assistant coach of my young son’s Little League Greene asked his managers if there was something more team. I studied all those tykes’ eager faces looking up they could do. When Michael’s manager posed him that at me expectantly and thought, “Where will life take same question, he called his brother, Dr. Matthew Lamb- each of you?” The season that followed was unremark- ton, the former Little Leaguer turned emergency room able—a fair reflection of my baseball coaching contri- physician at a Rhode Island hospital, who was very butions—but now, decades much in the thick of it. Mi- later, I have some answers chael’s question: Is there to my question. They be- Brothers in the Fight something more we can came a banker, songwriter, provide? “Ohhh, yeah!” investigator, choir director Lifesaving four-way split was Matt’s instant re-
and soldier, among other sponse. More ventilators. M diverse careers. Each one And so the young air- a surprise. And the game craft systems engineer continues. began researching medi-
Over the years, I got LESLEY LAMBTON. INSET: SAFE FLIGHT cal technology and came to learn that, in extreme to see one of those kids’ faces quite a lot because situations, ventilators could Matt Lambton became be divided or “split” for air/ my son’s best friend. They oxygen delivery to multiple were inseparable and es- patients. At his brother’s sentially lived in each oth- request, Matt overnighted er’s houses. As a result, our ventilator parts for siz- families grew quite friendly ing and Michael came up and familiar. It turned out with a splitter design that that Matt had a broth- would enable a single ven- er, Michael, a really good Michael (left) and Matthew Lambton. tilator to service one, two, kid. But he was a couple of years Matt’s junior, which three or four patients simultaneously. A team formed among grade schoolers counted as a full generation quickly to devise a production process using Safe Flight’s behind. As such, he never became a regular visitor to 3D printer and to ensure quality fabrication and material our place. But thanks to our family ties, we were aware traceability. Once fast-track-approved by the feds, the of his doings as he advanced through childhood and company planned to begin shipping devices immediately adolescence. However, once our kids were grown and and hoped licensees would do the same in quantity. gone, we moved to another state and lost touch. It is said that crisis speeds ingenuity. The elapsed Fast forward to the 2017 National Business Aviation time from Greene’s request for “something more” to Association (NBAA) Regional Forum at Westchester product selection and the Quad/Vent Splitter’s final County Airport. Matt Greene, then head of market- design was roughly 1.5 days. ing (now president) at nearby Safe Flight Instrument And here’s the thing, Safe Flight is just one of Corp., is walking past me with several young men in many business aviation companies stepping into the tow. He sees me, stops and says he’d like to reconnect breach. Piper, Textron Aviation, FlightSafety, Cirrus, me with one of his new charges. I turn, curious, and Dassault, Gulfstream, NetJets, CAE, Avfuel, Duncan, there stands Michael, smiling. I learned that he was Tecnam, VistaJet, PlaneSense and Universal Avionics graduating from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute with are among the many within the community investing a mechanical engineering degree and that, thanks to an- their time, talent, equipment and capital to help fight other former neighbor, he was interning at Safe Flight. the pandemic even as the crisis wreaks havoc to bottom He started working at the company full-time a few lines and shreds payrolls. We salute and thank them all. months later. So, to my quiet satisfaction, the former So I’ve got answers to the “Guess what . . . ?” question kid from up the street became an aviation colleague. as applied to the Lambton brothers and those like them. During the 2018 NBAA convention, I encountered What will they become? Heroes. What will they Michael again at Safe Flight’s exhibit. He was there to do? Use their skills, intelligence and focus to save the demonstrate a synthetic clutch servo—think digital world, one person at a time. c autothrottle with tactile stops—that he had helped in- vent. His name was on a patent, I learned, for the sec- William Garvey is Editor-in-Chief of Business & Commercial Aviation
12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY COMMENTARY INSIDE BUSINESS AVIATION AIRLINE INTEL WILLIAM GARVEY JENS FLOTTAU
HERE’S A GAME EVERYBODY PLAYS ond time since joining the company. And just recently, CHRISTIAN SCHERER, AIRBUS CHIEF for the MAX. And industry sources say there is more to but no one knows the ending for, oh, 25 his work came to my attention again. commercial officer, spoke with Aviation come —in terms of cancellations and deferrals and pos- years or more: “Guess What They’ll Be- To help ease the urgent shortage of personal protec- Week recently about the role of lessors. sibly in terms of consolidation within the leasing sector come and Do.” tive equipment, Safe Flight started making face shields He was full of praise: “It is a real quid pro itself, as some players are mulling their exit strategies, As a father, friend and neighbor, I’ve played that game for emergency room personnel on the front lines of quo for manufacturers in a crisis. In bad times, lessors according to industry sources. for decades. I well remember the day I was introduced as the battle with COVID-19. But Chairman/CEO Randy can pay back. They are a financial shock absorber for So, beyond the obvious reasons, why the MAX? “Cus- the new assistant coach of my young son’s Little League Greene asked his managers if there was something more OEMs.” In past crises, lessors absorbed the shocks to the tomers smell weakness, and Boeing are the natural guys team. I studied all those tykes’ eager faces looking up they could do. When Michael’s manager posed him that industry by continuing to take delivery of aircraft on or- to go after,” says one senior industry source. “You have at me expectantly and thought, “Where will life take same question, he called his brother, Dr. Matthew Lamb- der when airlines had long been canceling their commit- strong arguments against them because they did things each of you?” The season that followed was unremark- ton, the former Little Leaguer turned emergency room ments. That was particularly the case in the aftermath of wrong,” he adds, referring to the MAX grounding. The able—a fair reflection of my baseball coaching contri- physician at a Rhode Island hospital, who was very the 9/11 attacks, which subsequent long deliv- butions—but now, decades much in the thick of it. Mi- happens to be the one ery delays allow cus- later, I have some answers chael’s question: Is there crisis that is generally No More Shock Absorber tomers to cancel some to my question. They be- Brothers in the Fight something more we can referred to as having orders more easily. came a banker, songwriter, provide? “Ohhh, yeah!” the most similarities Lessors cannot help OEMs in this crisis But the story is a investigator, choir director Lifesaving four-way split was Matt’s instant re- to the novel corona- little more nuanced. and soldier, among other sponse. More ventilators. virus pandemic the Boeing sales chief M diverse careers. Each one And so the young air- industry is experienc- Ihssane Mounir told a surprise. And the game craft systems engineer ing right now. Aviation Week in Feb- continues. began researching medi- Of course, Scherer’s ruary: “As an industry,
Over the years, I got LESLEY LAMBTON. INSET: SAFE FLIGHT cal technology and came comments predate the we have probably sold to learn that, in extreme to see one of those kids’ full-scale impact that too many aircraft to faces quite a lot because situations, ventilators could COVID-19 has had on lessors. Collectively, Matt Lambton became be divided or “split” for air/ aviation. And a few we have to rebalance my son’s best friend. They oxygen delivery to multiple weeks into the timeline the content. And we were inseparable and es- patients. At his brother’s it is becoming clear have been working sentially lived in each oth- request, Matt overnighted that for lessors, 9/11 very aggressively on er’s houses. As a result, our ventilator parts for siz- and COVID-19 are ac- this strategy over the families grew quite friendly ing and Michael came up tually not similar at all. past 12 months.” Be- and familiar. It turned out with a splitter design that In other words, lessors AERCAP sides, Boeing is not that Matt had a broth- would enable a single ven- are not the “shock absorber” they once were. going to produce nearly as many MAXs as previous- er, Michael, a really good Michael (left) and Matthew Lambton. tilator to service one, two, There is a relatively simple reason for this: The busi- ly planned anytime soon. Airlines simply cannot take kid. But he was a couple of years Matt’s junior, which three or four patients simultaneously. A team formed ness model of leasing aircraft to airlines is based on the them, either from Boeing directly or through lessors as among grade schoolers counted as a full generation quickly to devise a production process using Safe Flight’s assumption that not all airlines will suffer at the same intermediaries. The company had planned to increase behind. As such, he never became a regular visitor to 3D printer and to ensure quality fabrication and material time. If one airline in a specific region is going through production to 57 aircraft per month, but analysts ex- our place. But thanks to our family ties, we were aware traceability. Once fast-track-approved by the feds, the a rough period, aircraft can go to an operator in another pect only a little more than half that output for the of his doings as he advanced through childhood and company planned to begin shipping devices immediately region. That is what has made the aviation industry so near-to-medium term. adolescence. However, once our kids were grown and and hoped licensees would do the same in quantity. attractive for investors. Unlike real estate, aircraft can Like Airbus, Boeing cannot afford to lose marquee gone, we moved to another state and lost touch. It is said that crisis speeds ingenuity. The elapsed be moved from one place to another and are generally names among its customers in the leasing industry. It Fast forward to the 2017 National Business Aviation time from Greene’s request for “something more” to in high demand—unless they have four engines. will therefore always have an incentive to agree to some Association (NBAA) Regional Forum at Westchester product selection and the Quad/Vent Splitter’s final That model is not viable in the situation the industry concessions. County Airport. Matt Greene, then head of market- design was roughly 1.5 days. is currently experiencing, one where all customers suf- Fortunately for the OEMs, lessors also do not really ing (now president) at nearby Safe Flight Instrument And here’s the thing, Safe Flight is just one of fer simultaneously. Suddenly aircraft can no longer be have an interest in many outright cancellations. Defer- Corp., is walking past me with several young men in many business aviation companies stepping into the moved around. As a result of the pandemic, lessors are rals, even for longer periods, are the much preferable op- tow. He sees me, stops and says he’d like to reconnect breach. Piper, Textron Aviation, FlightSafety, Cirrus, now behaving in the same way that airlines did nearly tion, as they ensure lessors will remain players in what me with one of his new charges. I turn, curious, and Dassault, Gulfstream, NetJets, CAE, Avfuel, Duncan, 20 years ago, deferring or canceling orders wherever will hopefully become a sizable market in due course. there stands Michael, smiling. I learned that he was Tecnam, VistaJet, PlaneSense and Universal Avionics they feel they must and have the opportunity to do so. The fact that near-term slots are canceled merely shows graduating from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute with are among the many within the community investing Due to the fact that not all deals and new agreements how deep the crisis is. a mechanical engineering degree and that, thanks to an- their time, talent, equipment and capital to help fight in the industry are in the public domain yet, any judg- Long-term deferrals carry their own risk, however. other former neighbor, he was interning at Safe Flight. the pandemic even as the crisis wreaks havoc to bottom ment about trends has to be made with caution. None- Demand patterns can change over time, as can the com- He started working at the company full-time a few lines and shreds payrolls. We salute and thank them all. theless, it is striking that the Boeing 737 MAX appears petitive landscape. Suppose a large part of a lessor’s months later. So, to my quiet satisfaction, the former So I’ve got answers to the “Guess what . . . ?” question to be particularly vulnerable: Avolon canceled com- portfolio for A320neos were to be deferred by several kid from up the street became an aviation colleague. as applied to the Lambton brothers and those like them. mitments for 75 aircraft; GECAS removed 69 from its years. That fleet could lose residual value in the long During the 2018 NBAA convention, I encountered What will they become? Heroes. What will they orderbook, even though that also means fewer CFM In- term if Boeing ultimately finds the money to develop a Michael again at Safe Flight’s exhibit. He was there to do? Use their skills, intelligence and focus to save the ternational engines will be built; CDB Aviation scrapped new narrowbody—a development almost everyone in demonstrate a synthetic clutch servo—think digital world, one person at a time. c 29 orders; and Alafco is in the process of terminating the industry agrees should happen sooner rather than autothrottle with tactile stops—that he had helped in- a commitment for 40. These four customers alone rep- later. But these are luxury issues, given the extraordi- vent. His name was on a patent, I learned, for the sec- William Garvey is Editor-in-Chief of Business & Commercial Aviation resent around 20% of the precrisis direct lessor orders nary crisis the sector is going through now. c
12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 13 SPACE > U.S. ISS lab alarm p. 16 Osiris-Rex trials p. 17 CREW DRAGON DEBUTS > DURATION OF DEMO-2 UP IN THE AIR > BOEING REPEATING UNCREWED FLIGHT
Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral NASA HAS FACED MANY FORMIDABLE
COMMERCIAL challenges in a decade-long quest CREW to restore U.S. human orbital space- COUNTDOWN flight, so it may have been better prepared than other agencies to face widespread travel bans, workplace shut- downs, health issues and other quagmires posed by the ongoing coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. SPACEX But confident in its ability to complete outstanding In September 2014, NASA narrowed the field of Commer- work, NASA announced a target launch date of May 27 cial Crew contenders to Boeing and SpaceX, awarding the for a flight test to the International Space Station (ISS) companies $4.2 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively, for flight by two U.S. astronauts aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon tests and up to six operational crew-rotation missions. The capsule flying from Florida. goal was to have one or both of the companies transport crew The launch, scheduled for 4:32 p.m. from Kennedy Space to the ISS in 2017, but funding shortfalls and technical issues Center Launch Complex 39A, will be the first human or- delayed both programs. bital space launch from the U.S. since the space shuttle Despite contrasting cultures and a 38% difference in NASA Atlantis touched down at the Florida spaceport on July 21, funding, Boeing and SpaceX have been neck and neck in a 2011, closing out the 135th and final space shuttle mission. low-profile race to be the first to launch NASA astronauts. The return of Atlantis marked the start of U.S. depen- SpaceX successfully flew an uncrewed Dragon 2 mission dence on Russia to ferry crews to the ISS, a 15-nation orbit- to the ISS in March 2019, then lost the capsule during al laboratory that has been continuously staffed by rotating preparations for a static test fire of the launch abort sys- teams of astronauts and cosmonauts since Nov. 2, 2000. tem a month later. As the station prepares to mark 20 years of human Software problems precluded Boeing’s uncrewed CST- presence in orbit, NASA is in the homestretch of launch- 100 Starliner from docking with the ISS during its orbital ing astronauts from U.S. soil—while testing a new busi - debut last December, a test that is scheduled to be repeated ness model for human space exploration that it intends this fall. Both Boeing and SpaceX have been bedeviled by to expand for travel to the Moon as well. “We are at the parachute development and testing. cusp of making our Commercial Crew dreams a reality,” SpaceX is providing Dragon’s ride to orbit, so Falcon 9 says Douglas Loverro, NASA associate administrator for issues have migrated onto NASA’s radar screen as well. human exploration and operations. For example, NASA announced a launch date for SpaceX’s NASA kicked off its Commercial Crew partnership Demo-2 mission, which will carry astronauts Robert program in 2010 with the goal of financially and techni- Behnken and Douglas Hurley, only after it was satisfied cally supporting private enterprise initiatives to develop with SpaceX’s explanation for a March 18 Falcon 9 prema- human space transportation systems. The idea was that ture engine shutdown. NASA would become one customer among many, buying Residual cleaning fluid trapped inside a sensor ignited, flight services, similar to how it contracts with SpaceX, prompting a cutoff of the Merlin 1D engine toward the end Northrop Grumman and Sierra Nevada Corp. for ISS car- of the first-stage burn, SpaceX disclosed on April 22. The go supply runs. booster’s eight other engines were able to successfully deliver
14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE > U.S. ISS lab alarm p. 16 Osiris-Rex trials p. 17
for early May. Testing was delayed by a March 24 accident that resulted in the loss of a Crew Dragon test article, which became unstable as it was hoisted into the air by a helicopter. CREW SpaceX on April 24 completed a successful static test fire of the Falcon 9 rocket that will launch Behnken and Hurley on the Demo-2 mission. Outstanding Crew Dragon certification products include verification closure notices, variances and hazard reports, DRAGON NASA said, adding that specific items are proprietary. Ahead of the FRR, NASA and SpaceX will hold Opera- tions, Stage Operations, Launch and Flight Test readiness reviews. Multiple NASA executives sign the Certification of DEBUTS Flight Readiness after the FRR, with senior approval com- ing from Loverro, a seasoned national security and space policy guru recruited to NASA six months ago. Oversight > DURATION OF DEMO-2 UP IN THE AIR of Demo-2 will be his first human spaceflight. NASA has yet to decide how long the Demo-2 mission will > BOEING REPEATING UNCREWED FLIGHT last. While operational Crew Dragon capsules will have 270- day orbital lifetimes, the spacecraft being used for SpaceX’s final Commercial Crew flight test can stay docked at the ISS Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral for up to about 120 days. Behnken and Hurley will transfer to the ongoing Expe- NASA HAS FACED MANY FORMIDABLE dition 63 crew as flight engineers, but the assignment is
COMMERCIAL challenges in a decade-long quest temporary. Staying longer would ease the ISS staffing short- CREW to restore U.S. human orbital space- fall—Expedition 63 is composed of just three crewmembers, COUNTDOWN half the usual number. But bringing Behnken and Hurley flight, so it may have been better home to complete the Demo-2 mission means NASA can prepared than other agencies to move on with the certification process needed for SpaceX face widespread travel bans, workplace shut- to begin operational missions. The agency is counting on the Expedition 64 crew to in- downs, health issues and other quagmires posed clude astronauts launching on SpaceX’s Crew-1 flight later by the ongoing coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. this year. NASA remains in negotiations for an additional SPACEX seat for a U.S. astronaut aboard a Russian Soyuz capsule. But confident in its ability to complete outstanding In September 2014, NASA narrowed the field of Commer- NASA astronauts Robert Behnken (left) and Douglas Expedition 63 Commander Chris Cassidy, who arrived at work, NASA announced a target launch date of May 27 cial Crew contenders to Boeing and SpaceX, awarding the Hurley are poised to break the nine-year hiatus in U.S. the ISS on April 9 along with cosmonauts Ivan Vagner and for a flight test to the International Space Station (ISS) companies $4.2 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively, for flight human orbital flight. Anatoly Ivanishin, took NASA’s last paid ride on a Soyuz. by two U.S. astronauts aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon tests and up to six operational crew-rotation missions. The Cassidy’s backup, astronaut Stephen Bowen, has returned capsule flying from Florida. goal was to have one or both of the companies transport crew the payload—a sixth batch of 60 SpaceX Starlink satellites— to the U.S., and the agency currently has no astronauts in The launch, scheduled for 4:32 p.m. from Kennedy Space to the ISS in 2017, but funding shortfalls and technical issues into its intended orbit. training in Russia, says NASA spokeswoman Brandi Dean. Center Launch Complex 39A, will be the first human or- delayed both programs. Boeing’s ride to orbit for the Starliner capsule—United “Several Commercial Crew astronauts are in training for bital space launch from the U.S. since the space shuttle Despite contrasting cultures and a 38% difference in NASA Launch Alliance’s Atlas V—has received similar scrutiny, long-duration station missions,” she wrote in an email to Avi- Atlantis touched down at the Florida spaceport on July 21, funding, Boeing and SpaceX have been neck and neck in a though it has had a longer and smoother ride during its 83-flight ation Week. “No other official assignments have been made.” 2011, closing out the 135th and final space shuttle mission. low-profile race to be the first to launch NASA astronauts. history than SpaceX’s Falcon 9. The Falcon 9, which first flew NASA on March 31 added astronaut Shannon Walker The return of Atlantis marked the start of U.S. depen- SpaceX successfully flew an uncrewed Dragon 2 mission on June 4, 2010, made its 84th flight on April 22, surpassing and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency astronaut Soichi dence on Russia to ferry crews to the ISS, a 15-nation orbit- to the ISS in March 2019, then lost the capsule during the Atlas V for the most flights of any operational U.S. booster. Noguchi to the SpaceX Crew-1 mission. NASA astronauts al laboratory that has been continuously staffed by rotating preparations for a static test fire of the launch abort sys- The Falcon 9 flight record includes two premature main Michael Hopkins and Victor Glover have been training for teams of astronauts and cosmonauts since Nov. 2, 2000. tem a month later. engine shutdowns, neither of which affected the primary the flight, which includes a long-duration stay on the ISS, As the station prepares to mark 20 years of human Software problems precluded Boeing’s uncrewed CST- mission, one failed cargo run to the ISS, and one preflight since August 2018. presence in orbit, NASA is in the homestretch of launch- 100 Starliner from docking with the ISS during its orbital launchpad accident that destroyed another rocket and its Meanwhile, Boeing’s operational Starliner missions will not ing astronauts from U.S. soil—while testing a new busi - debut last December, a test that is scheduled to be repeated payload, an Israeli commercial communications satellite. begin until 2021 at the earliest. The Starliner flight-test crew, ness model for human space exploration that it intends this fall. Both Boeing and SpaceX have been bedeviled by The Atlas V, which began flying in 2002, had one issue with now back in line behind another uncrewed mission, includes to expand for travel to the Moon as well. “We are at the parachute development and testing. a Centaur upper stage in 2007, but the satellites were able to Boeing astronaut Chris Ferguson, formerly with NASA. cusp of making our Commercial Crew dreams a reality,” SpaceX is providing Dragon’s ride to orbit, so Falcon 9 maneuver to their intended orbits. The rest of its missions During his last spaceflight, Ferguson and his STS-135 says Douglas Loverro, NASA associate administrator for issues have migrated onto NASA’s radar screen as well. have been completely successful. Though Boeing will repeat crewmates left behind a U.S. flag on the station to be re - human exploration and operations. For example, NASA announced a launch date for SpaceX’s the Starliner’s uncrewed orbital flight test, the December turned by the first crew launching to the station from U.S. NASA kicked off its Commercial Crew partnership Demo-2 mission, which will carry astronauts Robert 2019 launch certified the Atlas V for human spaceflight. soil. That milestone is now within SpaceX’s reach. program in 2010 with the goal of financially and techni- Behnken and Douglas Hurley, only after it was satisfied But NASA later added a second flag to emphasize the im- cally supporting private enterprise initiatives to develop with SpaceX’s explanation for a March 18 Falcon 9 prema- WORK AMID PANDEMIC portance of having two independent U.S. crew transportation human space transportation systems. The idea was that ture engine shutdown. NASA and SpaceX have a full plate of work ahead of a tar- systems to orbit. It is a strategy that so far is the clear winner.c NASA would become one customer among many, buying Residual cleaning fluid trapped inside a sensor ignited, geted May 22 Demo-2 Flight Readiness Review (FRR), which flight services, similar to how it contracts with SpaceX, prompting a cutoff of the Merlin 1D engine toward the end will take place in part virtually and partially at Kennedy due Digital Extra See a timeline of Commercial Crew program Northrop Grumman and Sierra Nevada Corp. for ISS car- of the first-stage burn, SpaceX disclosed on April 22. The to COVID-19 travel restrictions and workplace shutdowns. milestones from 2010 to April 2020: go supply runs. booster’s eight other engines were able to successfully deliver The final test of SpaceX’s Mk. 3 parachutes is scheduled AviationWeek.com/CCTimeline
14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 15 SPACE Panel Sounds Alarm Over ISS National Lab
> NASA CHIEF ECONOMIST NAMED CASIS PROGRAM EXEC > AGENCY REORGANIZES ITS COMMERCIAL PORTFOLIO
Mark Carreau Houston and Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral
fter a damning report by an independent review team, ANASA is revamping its over- sight of the Florida-based nonprofit organization that runs the U.S. Na- tional Laboratory programs of the International Space Station (ISS). The ISS National Laboratory is “not a national laboratory in any sense other than its legislative des- ignation,” the report notes. A SpaceX Dragon resupply ship is The 68-page independent review attached to the Earth-facing port of team assessment, titled “A Strategy the space station’s Harmony module. for the Future of the International Space Station National Laboratory and Commercial Low-Earth Orbit erational costs, NASA likely will re- have evolved dramatically in the in- Development,” was initiated by NASA main the primary source of revenue tervening 15 years. There are now en- Administrator Jim Bridenstine last for ISS launch and resupply for the tities using the ISS beyond the scope August and released on April 6. next 5-10 years, whether the ISS Na- originally envisioned for the ISS Na- The report calls for significant tional Laboratory remains hosted on tional Laboratory, as well as compe- changes in NASA’s oversight of the the ISS or, as NASA envisions, aboard tition between NASA and the ISS National Laboratory research and one or more successor commercial or- National Laboratory for crew time,
technology develop- AUBREY GEMIGNANI/NASA bital platforms. critical on-orbit facilities and ‘credit’ ment operations and its A complete transfor- for breakthroughs,” it adds. partner in the program, mation to becoming a The ISS—a $100 billion NASA in- the Center for the Ad- commercial landlord is vestment that costs an estimated vancement of Science likely 10-20 years away, $3 billion annually to operate—also in Space (CASIS.) the panel says. is no longer confronted by underuti- “While the aspira - “Use of the ISS as lization, the panel says. tions for future space a unique resource The report identified four over- commerce expressed through its end of life arching issues with the NASA/CASIS by NASA, CASIS and cannot be considered approach as the ISS National Labora- private sector partici- in isolation from oth- tory evolved: CASIS’ unusual struc- pants reflect a boldness, er NASA objectives, ture and function for a nonprofit, lack the technical, regulatory including research of user community integration by and economic compo- NASA Chief Economist and development for CASIS, poorly managed oversight of long-duration human CASIS by NASA, and poorly defined nents of the equation are Alexander MacDonald uncertain,” the report spaceflight systems, procedures for project and program says. “And the trajectories for those including capabilities for interplan- sponsors entering and exiting use of based in physical and life science pur- etary travel and permanent space the ISS National Laboratory. suits appear mutually exclusive.” habitation,” the report says. “NASA has used CASIS and its The panel, headed by the Univer- The ISS National Laboratory was results mainly for public relations sity of Arizona’s Elizabeth Cantwell, created at a specific time for a spe - and has played an insufficient role in senior vice president for research and cific purpose to address potential driving what CASIS does,” the panel innovation, also notes that although shortfalls in ISS utilization, the panel states in one especially critical con- private sector innovations portend notes. “However, the underlying set clusion. “CASIS has been left to de- greater reductions in launch and op- of expectations and predicted futures fine and redefine success based on a
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Panel Sounds changes in the composition and roles of the nonprofit’s board of directors Alarm Over ISS and executive leadership, including selecting a new chief executive. The National Lab agencies also are organizing a Users Advisory Committee comprising NASA CHIEF ECONOMIST members from organizations that > have formal agreements with NASA, NAMED CASIS PROGRAM EXEC CASIS and other government agen- > AGENCY REORGANIZES ITS cies sponsoring ISS research. COMMERCIAL PORTFOLIO Projects considered for the ISS National Laboratory will be evaluated with greater transparency and by Mark Carreau Houston and multiple external experts, NASA and Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral CASIS say. The station’s U.S. segment was des- fter a damning report by an ignated a U.S. National Laboratory by independent review team, Congress under a 2005 NASA autho- ANASA is revamping its over- rization measure seeking to increase sight of the Florida-based nonprofit utilization by other federal agencies organization that runs the U.S. Na- and the private sector. NASA man- tional Laboratory programs of the aged the lab until 2011 when, under International Space Station (ISS). congressional orders, it entered into The ISS National Laboratory is a cooperative agreement with a non- “not a national laboratory in any profit to manage the effort. sense other than its legislative des- NASA signed an initial $136 mil- ignation,” the report notes. A SpaceX Dragon resupply ship is lion, 10-year agreement with CASIS The 68-page independent review attached to the Earth-facing port of that was extended in 2017 to cover team assessment, titled “A Strategy the space station’s Harmony module. operations through 2024, at a total for the Future of the International cost of $196 million. c Space Station National Laboratory NASA and Commercial Low-Earth Orbit erational costs, NASA likely will re- have evolved dramatically in the in- ‘many voices’ approach from NASA Development,” was initiated by NASA main the primary source of revenue tervening 15 years. There are now en- that has driven inflexible, and poten- Administrator Jim Bridenstine last for ISS launch and resupply for the tities using the ISS beyond the scope tially damaging, board and operational Osiris-Rex Clears One Test August and released on April 6. next 5-10 years, whether the ISS Na- originally envisioned for the ISS Na- behaviors,” the report says. The report calls for significant tional Laboratory remains hosted on tional Laboratory, as well as compe- NASA says it is addressing the and Prepares for June Trial changes in NASA’s oversight of the the ISS or, as NASA envisions, aboard tition between NASA and the ISS issues flagged by the review, includ- National Laboratory research and one or more successor commercial or- National Laboratory for crew time, ing a reorganization of its commercial THE SPACECRAFT COMPLETED A SUCCESSFUL TEST ON APRIL 14 technology develop- AUBREY GEMIGNANI/NASA bital platforms. critical on-orbit facilities and ‘credit’ programs portfolio. > ment operations and its A complete transfor- for breakthroughs,” it adds. “You’ll see us create an organiza- ASTEROID LANDING IS PLANNED FOR AUG. 26 partner in the program, mation to becoming a The ISS—a $100 billion NASA in- tion where we focus all of our com- > the Center for the Ad- commercial landlord is vestment that costs an estimated mercial work under one dedicated vancement of Science likely 10-20 years away, $3 billion annually to operate—also set of leaders,” Douglas Loverro, as- Mark Carreau Houston in Space (CASIS.) the panel says. is no longer confronted by underuti- sociate administrator for human ex- “While the aspira - “Use of the ISS as lization, the panel says. ploration and operations said during siris-Rex, NASA’s first-ever as- Responding to preprogrammed tions for future space a unique resource The report identified four over- an April 20 webinar hosted by the teroid sample-return mission, commands, Osiris-Rex autonomously commerce expressed through its end of life arching issues with the NASA/CASIS American Institute of Aeronautics Ois poised to execute its second departed its 0.6-mi.-high orbit around by NASA, CASIS and cannot be considered approach as the ISS National Labora- and Astronautics. dress rehearsal June 23 in prepara- the 500-m-wide (1,640-ft.) asteroid, private sector partici- in isolation from oth- tory evolved: CASIS’ unusual struc- “Within my office, CASIS was tion for a touchdown in August. descending to its closest point near pants reflect a boldness, er NASA objectives, ture and function for a nonprofit, lack managed separately from our Com- Preliminary data shows that Osiris, the surface since arriving at Bennu the technical, regulatory including research of user community integration by mercial Crew program, which was a $1 billion component of NASA’s New on Dec. 3, 2018. Confirmation that and economic compo- NASA Chief Economist and development for CASIS, poorly managed oversight of managed separately from our Com- Frontiers effort to explore the Solar the “Checkpoint” exercise was a suc- long-duration human CASIS by NASA, and poorly defined nents of the equation are Alexander MacDonald mercial Cargo program, which was System, successfully carried out a cess concluded with the spacecraft uncertain,” the report spaceflight systems, procedures for project and program managed separately, in many cases, 4-hr. series of spacecraft maneuvers ascending back to its orbital perch. says. “And the trajectories for those including capabilities for interplan- sponsors entering and exiting use of from our commercial vehicle develop- and deployments on April 14. The run- The mission was launched on Sept. based in physical and life science pur- etary travel and permanent space the ISS National Laboratory. ment program,” Loverro says. “We’re through was executed to practice the 8, 2016, with Osiris-Rex outfitted to suits appear mutually exclusive.” habitation,” the report says. “NASA has used CASIS and its putting those all together so we can critical early stages of operations attempt up to three brief sample- The panel, headed by the Univer- The ISS National Laboratory was results mainly for public relations make sure that they are synergistic.” planned for late August, when Osiris- collection attempts before departing sity of Arizona’s Elizabeth Cantwell, created at a specific time for a spe - and has played an insufficient role in NASA also appointed its chief Rex is to land briefly on the asteroid for Earth in March 2021. senior vice president for research and cific purpose to address potential driving what CASIS does,” the panel economist, Alexander MacDonald, Bennu to gather up to 4.4 lb. of sur- It is designed for the spacecraft innovation, also notes that although shortfalls in ISS utilization, the panel states in one especially critical con- to serve as program executive for face material. Bennu is a carbon-rich, to drop off its sample-return con- private sector innovations portend notes. “However, the underlying set clusion. “CASIS has been left to de- CASIS. boulder-strewn primitive Solar Sys- tainer as Osiris-Rex passes close to greater reductions in launch and op- of expectations and predicted futures fine and redefine success based on a NASA and CASIS agreed to make tem body 140 million mi. from Earth. Earth. That container is set to reenter
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Earth’s atmosphere for recovery on Sept. 24, 2023, in a parachute-assisted descent onto the U.S. Army’s Utah Test and Training Range. The science team, led by University of Arizona Principal Investigator Dante Lauretta, is hopeful that laboratory analysis of the pristine asteroid material will help to further explain the Solar System’s 4.6 billion- year-old planet-forming era—includ- ing the role that asteroids played in the distribution of water ice and organics, the building blocks of life. Also designated a near-Earth ob- ject, Bennu is of interest because of a one-in-800 chance it could collide with the Earth in 2182, possibly caus- ing damage on a regional scale. The April 14 Checkpoint exercise was the first of two planned rehears- als prior to the actual touchdown, now scheduled for Aug. 26 at a pre - designated landing zone around
Nightingale, a 66-ft.-wide impact NASA crater near Bennu’s north pole. Osiris-Rex departed its “safe home” orbit around Bennu with an reconfiguration also extended the This image of the asteroid Bennu attitude control system maneuver. It Tagsam along the spacecraft’s center is overlaid with a graphic of the took 13 min. for data confirming the of gravity so that it could make only Osiris-Rex spacecraft to show the start of the drill to reach Earth, add- brief direct contact with the surface. scale of the sample-collection site ing to the suspense. After the 3-sec. checkpoint thruster “This is a bit of a nail-biter,” Lauret- maneuver, Osiris-Rex continued its on the asteroid. ta wrote on Twitter. His comment descent toward Bennu’s surface for announced the selection of Nightin- was made during a temporary loss of another 9 min., reaching an altitude gale as the primary sample-collection signal lock between Osiris-Rex and of about 243 ft., the closest the space- site on Dec. 12, 2019. NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN), craft has come to the asteroid yet. At the same time as the NASA as Osiris-Rex began its slow descent. That was followed by a back-away announcement, the Japan Aero - NASA’s DSN is the global network of maneuver to begin the ascent toward space Exploration Agency’s (JAXA) ground stations used by NASA for the probe’s initial orbital position, in- Hayabusa2 sample-return mission two-way communications with plane- cluding reconfiguration of the solar (launched on Dec. 3, 2014) to the tary science mission spacecraft. arrays to their original orientation larger asteroid Ryugu was starting to Next, the probe extended its 11-ft.- and the issuance of commands for make its way back to Earth after gath- long robotic arm, the Touch-and-Go the Tagsam to reassume its stowed ering surface and subsurface samples Sample Acquisition Mechanism (Tag- position. in 2019. The Japanese spacecraft is sam). The device is to release a blast Throughout much of the trial, to drop off a sample container as it of nitrogen at the landing site in late spacecraft sensors also gathered passes by Earth in December 2020 August to kick up pieces of Bennu thermal and mineral composition during a parachute-assisted descent into a sample-collection container. data from Bennu’s surface. into remote Australia for recovery. The spacecraft then slewed into A second rehearsal is planned Scientists involved in Osiris-Rex position to begin gathering images for June 23. It will take Osiris-Rex and Hayabusa2 plan to exchange sam- of the surface for autonomous navi- through the same checkpoint deploy- ple materials for scientific analysis. gation. The probe’s natural feature ments and maneuvers to a third crit- Much of the checkpoint rehearsal tracking technology draws on soft- ical descent milestone, the “Match- was carried out in telework fashion ware guidance systems and compares point” maneuver. Matchpoint is to due to the coronavirus pandemic. the real-time descent imagery with occur at about 164 ft. over Bennu’s The work was led by personnel from images stored in an onboard cata- terrain, synchronizing the space - NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Cen- log of previously imaged landmarks. craft’s descent with the rotation of ter, Lockheed Martin Space Systems’ During its descent to the 410-ft.-alti- the asteroid so it can navigate accu- control center in Denver and the tude checkpoint maneuver level, the rately to its constrained landing zone University of Arizona. Only a limit- probe’s solar arrays were positioned at Nightingale. ed number of essential personnel— into a “Y-wing” configuration intended After a lengthy global reconnais- all taking safety precautions due to to prevent their contact with Bennu’s sance of Bennu’s surprisingly rocky COVID-19—were at each of the sites surface during the actual landing. The surface, the Osiris-Rex mission team during the drill. c
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Earth’s atmosphere for recovery on Sept. 24, 2023, in a parachute-assisted descent onto the U.S. Army’s Utah Test and Training Range. The science team, led by University of Arizona Principal Investigator Dante Lauretta, is hopeful that laboratory analysis of the pristine asteroid material will help to further explain the Solar System’s 4.6 billion- year-old planet-forming era—includ- ing the role that asteroids played in the distribution of water ice and organics, the building blocks of life. Also designated a near-Earth ob- ject, Bennu is of interest because of a one-in-800 chance it could collide with the Earth in 2182, possibly caus- ing damage on a regional scale. The April 14 Checkpoint exercise was the first of two planned rehears- als prior to the actual touchdown, now scheduled for Aug. 26 at a pre - designated landing zone around
Nightingale, a 66-ft.-wide impact NASA crater near Bennu’s north pole. Osiris-Rex departed its “safe home” orbit around Bennu with an reconfiguration also extended the This image of the asteroid Bennu attitude control system maneuver. It Tagsam along the spacecraft’s center is overlaid with a graphic of the took 13 min. for data confirming the of gravity so that it could make only Osiris-Rex spacecraft to show the start of the drill to reach Earth, add- brief direct contact with the surface. scale of the sample-collection site ing to the suspense. After the 3-sec. checkpoint thruster “This is a bit of a nail-biter,” Lauret- maneuver, Osiris-Rex continued its on the asteroid. ta wrote on Twitter. His comment descent toward Bennu’s surface for announced the selection of Nightin- was made during a temporary loss of another 9 min., reaching an altitude gale as the primary sample-collection signal lock between Osiris-Rex and of about 243 ft., the closest the space- site on Dec. 12, 2019. NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN), craft has come to the asteroid yet. At the same time as the NASA as Osiris-Rex began its slow descent. That was followed by a back-away announcement, the Japan Aero - NASA’s DSN is the global network of maneuver to begin the ascent toward space Exploration Agency’s (JAXA) ground stations used by NASA for the probe’s initial orbital position, in- Hayabusa2 sample-return mission two-way communications with plane- cluding reconfiguration of the solar (launched on Dec. 3, 2014) to the tary science mission spacecraft. arrays to their original orientation larger asteroid Ryugu was starting to Next, the probe extended its 11-ft.- and the issuance of commands for make its way back to Earth after gath- long robotic arm, the Touch-and-Go the Tagsam to reassume its stowed ering surface and subsurface samples Sample Acquisition Mechanism (Tag- position. in 2019. The Japanese spacecraft is sam). The device is to release a blast Throughout much of the trial, to drop off a sample container as it of nitrogen at the landing site in late spacecraft sensors also gathered passes by Earth in December 2020 August to kick up pieces of Bennu thermal and mineral composition during a parachute-assisted descent ● into a sample-collection container. data from Bennu’s surface. into remote Australia for recovery. The spacecraft then slewed into A second rehearsal is planned Scientists involved in Osiris-Rex position to begin gathering images for June 23. It will take Osiris-Rex and Hayabusa2 plan to exchange sam- ● of the surface for autonomous navi- through the same checkpoint deploy- ple materials for scientific analysis. gation. The probe’s natural feature ments and maneuvers to a third crit- Much of the checkpoint rehearsal ● tracking technology draws on soft- ical descent milestone, the “Match- was carried out in telework fashion ware guidance systems and compares point” maneuver. Matchpoint is to due to the coronavirus pandemic. the real-time descent imagery with occur at about 164 ft. over Bennu’s The work was led by personnel from images stored in an onboard cata- terrain, synchronizing the space - NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Cen- log of previously imaged landmarks. craft’s descent with the rotation of ter, Lockheed Martin Space Systems’ During its descent to the 410-ft.-alti- the asteroid so it can navigate accu- control center in Denver and the tude checkpoint maneuver level, the rately to its constrained landing zone University of Arizona. Only a limit- probe’s solar arrays were positioned at Nightingale. ed number of essential personnel— into a “Y-wing” configuration intended After a lengthy global reconnais- all taking safety precautions due to to prevent their contact with Bennu’s sance of Bennu’s surprisingly rocky COVID-19—were at each of the sites surface during the actual landing. The surface, the Osiris-Rex mission team during the drill. c
18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Embraer’s Millennium airlifter p. 23 Civil engine outlook p. 24 European airlines p. 26 737 MAX return timeline p. 28 ADS-B and COVID-19 p. 30
Bad to Worse
> AIRBUS AND BOEING ANNOUNCE DEEP PRODUCTION CUTS > BOEING TERMINATES EMBRAER TIE-UP BUT REMAINS OPEN TO MITSUBISHI PARTNERSHIP > RECOVERY TO PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SEVERAL YEARS
Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Guy Norris Los Angeles and Sean Broderick and Michael Bruno Washington prominently the planned commercial aircraft joint venture between Boeing lmost exactly 15 years ago, tens coronavirus wreaks havoc on com- and Embraer, Boeing Brasil-Commer- of thousands of spectators po- mercial aviation. Many airlines are cial. There will continue to be two ma- Asitioned themselves around the on the brink of collapse, as are many jor players. A third, Embraer, is trying fences of Toulouse’s Blagnac Airport. suppliers. And the financial pressures to compete in its own niche against the On April 27, 2005, the Airbus A380 on the OEMs and large suppliers are giants while new rivals such as Mitsu- took off for its very first flight, her- so intense that they have no choice but bishi slowly appear on the horizon. alding what many believed was going to focus on their own survival rather The only bit of good news is that to be a new era of flight. Fast forward than considering customer financing while air transport is about to reach to April 2020: Almost the entire fleet or supplier support at any scale. rock bottom in some of the hardest-hit of A380s is grounded, as are tens of The COVID-19 pandemic is reshap- markets, it is on a slow upward slope thousands of smaller aircraft. And ing aerospace and, about two months in others, particularly in Asia where Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury wrote in into the sector’s worst crisis ever, its some airlines have cautiously begun an internal memo that “the survival of future shape is becoming clearer. The to add flights. Unfortunately for the Airbus is in question.” industry is becoming much small- aerospace side of the business, the full That such a message would come er than it was just a short while ago. effect of the declines is only beginning from Airbus, arguably the soundest Bankruptcies are almost guaranteed to filter through and will dominate commercial aircraft manufacturer in and will not be limited to smaller, industry activity for the foreseeable terms of finances and strategic po- weaker firms. State bailouts and the future, with analysts generally not ex- sitioning, was unthinkable just two rising influence of governments will pecting traffic to recover to precrisis months ago. But similar memos could soon be commonplace. Research and levels before 2023. have been issued by any of his col- development has slowed or is on hold. Airbus had already announced a leagues or competitors as the novel And transactions are collapsing, most 30% across-the-board production cut
20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Embraer’s Millennium airlifter p. 23 Civil engine outlook p. 24 European airlines p. 26 737 MAX return timeline p. 28 ADS-B and COVID-19 p. 30
“We will take a measured approach on a new airplane now because of all to the 777X rate ramp, as we will look the market and product ramifications to minimize the amount of change associated with this [market] change,” incorporation work by managing the he says. “It is going to take us a while number of aircraft produced prior to to sort that out.” entry into service,” says Boeing CEO Calhoun also indicates the potential Bad to Worse Dave Calhoun. The reduced rate un- shift to smaller-capacity aircraft in a derlines the drastic change in fortunes market recovering from the pandemic for Boeing. which only three years ago may have removed some of the urgen- > AIRBUS AND BOEING ANNOUNCE DEEP PRODUCTION CUTS provisionally planned to produce seven cy to develop a new product family, as > BOEING TERMINATES EMBRAER TIE-UP BUT REMAINS 777s per month in 2020, almost half of well as breathed new life into the 737 OPEN TO MITSUBISHI PARTNERSHIP which were to be 777Xs. MAX sector. “In some ways, if airplane The production reduction for the loads want to get smaller as a result of > RECOVERY TO PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS IS EXPECTED 787 is more precipitous, at least in the a smaller set of passengers flying on TO TAKE SEVERAL YEARS midterm, with the rate dropping to 10 them in the next several years, it might per month later this year from 14. The actually play to us,” he says. “We have previous plan would have seen a shal- a robust [737] backlog with it.” lower cut, from 12 later this year to 10 “Robust” could not be used to de- in early 2021. scribe Boeing’s finances, but the pic- Production of the 737 MAX is to re- ture is beginning to look much less start this quarter and increase gradu- bleak then it did only weeks ago. The ally to 31 aircraft per month sometime OEM was negotiating with the Trump in 2021, with further increases based administration about receiving U.S. on demand. Boeing was producing 52 bailout funds, but company leaders be- MAXs monthly and preparing to ramp lieve they can maintain investor-grade up to 57 when all MAXs were ground- ratings, and they see a sustainable fi- ed in March 2019 following two fatal nancial path where its commercial accidents in less than five months. It aircraft business returns to growth in cut production to 42 in April 2019. In 3-5 years. January 2020, it paused production, Getting there, however, will require following months of missed projections billions of dollars more in debt financ- Commercial aviation faces about when the FAA would approve ing—although no longer from the U.S. much pain and turbulence changes ordered after the accident government, Boeing said April 30—as in the years ahead as it tries probes and related reviews. well as cutting its workforce at least to deal with the fallout from the The pandemic has also slowed 10%, or 16,000 employees. planning for Boeing’s next new air- “We are doing everything in the COVID-19 pandemic. craft project. In January, the OEM next six months on the liquidity was already transitioning away from front that we believe is necessary to NEXT143/GETTY IMAGES Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Guy Norris Los Angeles and the long-running two-family new mid- keep us operating and keep us safe,” Sean Broderick and Michael Bruno Washington prominently the planned commercial on April 8. Now Boeing, too, is scaling market airplane (NMA) initiative to Calhoun says. Private-sector financing aircraft joint venture between Boeing back big-time in various ways: cutting a revised 757-size concept. Although has opened again, thanks to the new lmost exactly 15 years ago, tens coronavirus wreaks havoc on com- and Embraer, Boeing Brasil-Commer- into production rates and curtailing of thousands of spectators po- mercial aviation. Many airlines are cial. There will continue to be two ma- the pace of development programs Airbus Key Metrics Asitioned themselves around the on the brink of collapse, as are many jor players. A third, Embraer, is trying and future projects. First Quarter First Quarter Change fences of Toulouse’s Blagnac Airport. suppliers. And the financial pressures to compete in its own niche against the The combined production rate for 2020 2019 Restated* On April 27, 2005, the Airbus A380 on the OEMs and large suppliers are giants while new rivals such as Mitsu- the Boeing 777-300ER/F and 777X is ORDER INTAKE (NET) 290 (58) N/A took off for its very first flight, her- so intense that they have no choice but bishi slowly appear on the horizon. set to reduce to three per month in BACKLOG (UNITS) 7,650 7,357 4.0% alding what many believed was going to focus on their own survival rather The only bit of good news is that 2021, while the Boeing 787 rate will be DELIVERIES (UNITS) 122 162 -24.7% to be a new era of flight. Fast forward than considering customer financing while air transport is about to reach cut to 10 per month later this year and to April 2020: Almost the entire fleet or supplier support at any scale. rock bottom in some of the hardest-hit shrink to seven per month by 2022. REVENUES** €7,569 €9,697 -21.9% of A380s is grounded, as are tens of The COVID-19 pandemic is reshap- markets, it is on a slow upward slope The 777 slowdown cuts the official EBIT** €57 €319 -82.1% thousands of smaller aircraft. And ing aerospace and, about two months in others, particularly in Asia where production rate in half, to around 2.5 *2019 financial figures restated to reflect the adoption of a new segment reporting structure for “Transversal” activities Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury wrote in into the sector’s worst crisis ever, its some airlines have cautiously begun later this year from the current five **In € million (€1 = $1.08) Source: Airbus an internal memo that “the survival of future shape is becoming clearer. The to add flights. Unfortunately for the per month, although the actual rate Airbus is in question.” industry is becoming much small- aerospace side of the business, the full cut is cushioned because Boeing al- Calhoun emphasizes that the company CARES Act in response to COVID-19, That such a message would come er than it was just a short while ago. effect of the declines is only beginning ready accounts for around 1.5 “blank” is “not out of the product development as well as the Fed’s separate-but-re- from Airbus, arguably the soundest Bankruptcies are almost guaranteed to filter through and will dominate positions per month in anticipation of business,” he cautions that “it’ll be a lit- lated corporate-backstop program. commercial aircraft manufacturer in and will not be limited to smaller, industry activity for the foreseeable the production switch to the 777X. The tle while before we announce a big new Boeing is examining all options and terms of finances and strategic po- weaker firms. State bailouts and the future, with analysts generally not ex- gradual introduction of the initial 777X airframe.” The advanced engineering a mix of sources of financing—includ- sitioning, was unthinkable just two rising influence of governments will pecting traffic to recover to precrisis model—the 777-9—will also be slowed and manufacturing lessons learned ing Treasury Department funding via months ago. But similar memos could soon be commonplace. Research and levels before 2023. under the new rate plans and will bring from the NMA program will be used CARES that could entail giving the have been issued by any of his col- development has slowed or is on hold. Airbus had already announced a the combined 777/777X production tal- in whatever program follows. “[But] government a stake in the company. leagues or competitors as the novel And transactions are collapsing, most 30% across-the-board production cut ly to three per month in 2021. we will not try to drop a point design “I think things have changed a bit
20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 21 COMMERCIAL AVIATION
for the better since maybe a month ton state and South Carolina, where if they want to—and if they believe ago.” Calhoun adds. “But at the same Boeing Commercial Aircraft work is they’ve got some innovative capabil- time, we have not yet made choices, centralized, as well as in Dallas-Fort ities—[could] move into more of our and I don’t want to predict outcomes Worth and other Boeing Global Ser- kind of world,” Calhoun says. on that front.” vices sites. Cuts should be shallower Potential partnerships with com- Boeing stunned Wall Street and at Boeing Defense and Space, which is panies such as Mitsubishi would help the aerospace world in March when likely to become the dominant division with the “effect it has on globalizing it openly asked for at least $60 billion for years to come while commercial our company,” Calhoun adds. “Each in federal aid for itself and its suppli- and maintenance, repair and overhaul and every deal has to be struck at the ers. Following the latest revelations, businesses contract, the CEO notes. right economic levels and it has to be though, Boeing’s stock price closed up Boeing reported first-quarter rev- struck in a fair way,” he says. “And in almost 6%, with analysts and observers enue of $16.9 billion, down 26% from each of those cases, there’ll be con- noting with relief both that the quar- the same quarter of last year. Loss per ditions, and both parties will have to terly results were not worse and that share was $1.11 on regular accounting meet those conditions.” Boeing sees a sustainable path forward. rules, compared with a $3.75 gain the One might interpret that as a hint The OEM burned through $4.7 billion in first quarter of 2019, and a so-called about why Boeing thinks it had the the recent quarter, better than analysts core business loss per share of $1.70 right to terminate the planned Boeing ei erci Air e r ucti tes MA