ctbto MagazineCTBTO issue 11 | September 2008 Spectrum

President Oscar Arias The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: The Way Forward

Director General Mohamed ElBaradei Nuclear Testing: A Bygone Era

Senator Sam Nunn Nuclear Dangers: The Race between Cooperation and Catastrophe

Ambassadors Max M. Kampelman and Thomas Graham, Jr. Nuclear Weapons: An Existential Threat to Humanity

www.ctbto.org Cover designed by Todd Vincent

Disclaimer: The views expressed in articles by external contributors do not necessarily reflect the positions and policies of the CTBTO Preparatory Commission.

The boundaries and presentation of material on maps do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the Provisional Technical Secretariat concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Inside this issue

E d i to r i a l CTBTO Executive Secretary Tibor Tóth...... 2

G l o b a l s tat u s o f s i g n at u r e s a n d ratifications ...... 3

I n t h e s p o t l i g h t The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: The Way Forward Interview with President Oscar Arias of Costa Rica...... 4

V o i c e s Nuclear Testing: A Bygone Era by IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei...... 7

C o ve r S to ry Nuclear Dangers: The Race between Cooperation and Catastrophe by Senator Sam Nunn...... 8

F e at u r e A rt i c l e Nuclear Weapons: An Existential Threat to Humanity by Ambassadors Max M. Kampelman and Thomas Graham, Jr...... 10

P e r s p e c t i ve s The Enduring Value of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and New Prospects for Entry Into Force by Daryl G. Kimball...... 12

V e r i f i c at i o n s c i e n c e Looking for the nuclear needle in the haystack: The Integrated Field Exercise 08 in Kazakhstan by Kirsten Haupt and Thomas Mützelburg...... 14

S tat u s o f c e rt i f i e d IMS fa c i l i t i e s ...... 17

V e r i f i c at i o n h i g h l i g h t s Building monitoring facilities in the coldest, driest and windiest continent on Earth: Antarctica by Denise Brettschneider...... 18

S e c r e ta r i at s n a p s h o t s A Global Scientific Endeavour: The International Scientific Studies Project by Yvonne Yew...... 22

V e r i f i c at i o n s c i e n c e a n d p o t e n t i a l c i v i l applications The importance of Atmospheric Transport Modelling: Over ten years of cooperation between the World Meteorological Organization and the CTBTO by Peter Chen, Gerhard Wotawa and Andreas Becker...... 24

Who we are The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) bans all nuclear explosions on Earth. It opened for signature on 24 September 1996 in New York.

 The Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) consists of the States Signatories and the Provisional Technical Secretariat. The main tasks of the CTBTO are to promote signatures and ratifications and to establish a global verification regime capable of detecting nuclear explosions underground, underwater and in the atmosphere. The regime must be operational when the Treaty enters into force. It consists of 337 monitoring facilities supported by an International Data Centre and on-site inspection measures.

c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Pa g e 1 Editorial

In March 1963, When Kennedy made his speech, In view of the current political President John great leadership combined with climate, this edition of CTBTO Spectrum F. Kennedy said: multilateral arms control initiatives, such focuses on the role of the CTBT in the “I am haunted by as the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963 and wider non-proliferation and disarmament the feeling that the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in context. We are privileged to have received by 1970, unless 1968, succeeded in limiting the spread of articles from several internationally we are successful, nuclear weapons. Today we need the same acclaimed leaders. President Oscar there may be 10 strong leadership, with the United States Arias of Costa Rica gives his views on nuclear powers at the forefront in international non- the steps necessary to ensure the Treaty’s instead of 4, and proliferation and disarmament efforts. entry into force. The Director General by 1975, 15 or of the IAEA, Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, 20.” Fortunately, The political momentum for the Treaty stresses the CTBT’s key role in global Kennedy’s timetable was averted. However, continues to grow. Colombia, Malaysia security. Former U.S. Senator Sam there has been a sense over recent years and Iraq are key countries that recently Nunn expounds on the “race between that his prediction could come true, several signed or ratified the Treaty. Strong support cooperation and catastrophe.” U.S. senior decades later. for the Treaty has also been expressed at diplomats, Ambassador Max Kampelman the highest political levels by President and Ambassador Tom Graham, explore In today’s world, the ban on nuclear Nicolas Sarkozy of France, Prime Minister the threat that nuclear weapons pose to testing is more important than ever. Gordon Brown of the United Kingdom and humanity, and the Executive Director numerous foreign ministers. Former U.S. of the Arms Control Association, Daryl The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test- foreign affairs and defense policy leaders Kimball, examines the reasons for the Ban Treaty (CTBT) prevents the spread of – George Shultz, William Perry, Henry enduring value of the CTBT. This edition nuclear weapons to additional States and Kissinger and Sam Nunn, supported by also includes highlights about the IFE08, restricts the development of advanced, more than 40 others – have called for the the cooperation between the CTBTO and new types of nuclear warheads. It acts CTBT’s entry into force from a bipartisan the World Meteorological Organization, as a catalyst for progress on nuclear platform. The U.S. Democratic Party the challenges of establishing monitoring disarmament, aiding measures such as nominee, Barack Obama, has made his stations in Antarctica, and the ongoing de-alerting and strategic and non-strategic support for CTBT ratification clear on International Scientific Studies project to arms reductions. several occasions and U.S. Republican assess the readiness and capabilities of the Party nominee, John McCain, has pledged CTBT’s verification regime. Climate change and the energy to have another look at the Treaty. crisis are two priorities on the global As was the case 45 years ago, the agenda. Closely related is the resurgence The CTBT’s global alarm system is governments of today will need to visualize of nuclear energy as nations strive to also constantly expanding. 256 monitoring the larger picture and ask themselves what meet their growing energy demands while facilities have been installed to date. The world they would like their children to live minimizing their potential impact on the number of these facilities transmitting in. Would they want to go back to a “free- environment. This results in an increase data to Vienna from around the world has for-all” with the risk of a new nuclear arms in the production of fissile material as tripled since 2004 and the volume of data race? Or would they prefer to continue the number of countries and facilities made available to users has doubled. Over building the global security architecture managing the nuclear fuel cycle also 100 countries and over 1000 individual with multilateral treaty arrangements such grows. In such a world, it is essential that users now access data bulletins and as the CTBT at its core? the line between prohibited and permitted analyzed products. A brand new Global nuclear activities is drawn clearly and Communications Infrastructure has been put I deeply hope they will choose the irrevocably. The CTBT provides the last in place, completing a ten year programme latter. and most visible barrier against nuclear worth tens of millions of dollars. The weapons development. A CTBT in force first ever on-site inspection field exercise would also be an incentive for ending the (IFE08) is being conducted on an production of fissile material for weapons unprecedented scale at the former nuclear use, pending the negotiation and entry test site at Semipaltinsk in Kazakhstan: the into force of a Fissile Material Cut-Off exercise involves over 200 participants and Tibor Tóth Executive Secretary Treaty, as well as reducing stocks of such over 50 tonnes of equipment deployed over Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive materials. 1000 square kilometres of terrain. Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization

pa g e 2 c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Treaty signatures and ratifications

CTBT signatures and ratifications as of 12 September 2008

Signatory States Ratifying States Non-Signatory States Total States: 195 179 144 16 Annex 2 States: 44 41 35 3

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c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Pa g e 3 In the spotlight

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT): The Way Forward President Oscar Arias of Costa Rica presents his views on the CTBT

Q: Since the Comprehensive Nuclear- of Korea, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Regarding the Democratic People’s Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) opened for Israel, Pakistan, and the United States. Republic of Korea (DPRK), as it depends signature in 1996, Costa Rica has been largely on China, it is foreseeable that it will unwavering in its political and technical The probable exception here is follow suit after the Chinese ratification. In support. It is coordinating the Conference Indonesia, which is likely to respond to addition, the CTBT will be a logical addition on Facilitating the Entry into Force of the intensified lobbying efforts from like-minded to the DPRK denuclearization commitments Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty States and ratify in the near future. under the Six-Party Talks, particularly (Article XIV Conference) until 2009. It after the U.S. ratification is secured. also chaired the Preparatory Commission In the case of India and Pakistan, it for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban is important to work out a creative deal Which brings us now to the United States. Treaty Organization (CTBTO) in 2007 and whereby the lack of trust between the two the current Director of the International countries can be overcome, by proposing that Q: How important do you Monitoring System Division of the CTBTO signature/ratification be a joint action by both consider U.S. leadership in the is a Costa Rican national. States. It is very important for the international CTBT ratification process to be?

In view of this background A: It is necessary that the United and of Costa Rica’s commitment to States resumes its leadership role and global nuclear disarmament, what “It is necessary that the commitment to the CTBT as one of the steps do you consider necessary United States resumes proponents of the Treaty. The upcoming over the next few years to ensure elections provide an excellent the Treaty’s entry into force? its leadership role and opportunity to start new lobbying commitment to the CTBT efforts within the policy-making A: Costa Rica reiterated apparatus in the new administration. its strong support for the as one of the proponents CTBT when it assumed, of the Treaty.” The two major presidential together with Austria, the candidates have already declared co-chairmanship of the fifth that they would make major changes Article XIV Conference held to the national security and foreign in Vienna from 17 to 18 September 2007. community to be attentive to developments of policies carried out by the George W. the U.S.-India deal, as it has a direct bearing Bush administration over the last seven The Conference’s final declaration on the CTBT and the norm against nuclear years. Although the United States has not called for measures to promote the entry testing. It is regrettable that the documents conducted a nuclear test explosion since into force of the CTBT. Therefore, renewed relating to civil nuclear cooperation with India 1992, the Bush administration has not efforts must be made to call on outstanding which have so far been agreed upon, including put the Treaty forward for a new vote on States to sign and ratify the Treaty. the safeguards agreement with the IAEA, have ratification to the Senate. failed to place conditions on India to maintain While continuing to take advantage its test moratorium and have not mentioned Barack Obama has been clear in of bilateral occasions as well as multilateral the importance of CTBT signature/ratification. his support of the bipartisan group of fora for this purpose, I believe that new senior and former government officials concerted efforts and strategies must be Regarding the outstanding Middle who have called for moving toward a defined for the nine outstanding countries. East countries, the strategy will not be “world free of nuclear weapons. He has effective unless it is integrated into the promised: “As president, I will take the Let us review the list of States whose larger peace efforts for the region. lead to work for a world in which the signature/ratification is still outstanding, roles and risks of nuclear weapons can and who need to ratify the Treaty for it China has openly indicated that be reduced and ultimately eliminated.” to enter into force (Annex 2 countries): it is looking towards the United States Furthermore, he has promised to make China, the Democratic People’s Republic before moving to ratification. the CTBT a priority of his first term

pa g e 4 c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 delivery, and to soon as possible, particularly through the “... the CTBT will be a prohibit non-State Committee on Hemispheric Security. actors, especially logical addition to the DPRK terrorists, from In this regard, it is very important to denuclearization commitments developing and using achieve the ratification of the remaining such weapons. five States from the Latin America and under the Six-Party Talks, Caribbean region (singling out the USA particularly after the U.S. Costa Rica assumed as the only outstanding OAS Member a non-permanent State whose ratification is still pending). ratification is secured.” seat at the UN Security Council The OAS special sessions have played on 1 January 2008 an important role in keeping the CTBT on the in office and pledged to work to rebuild and as Chair of the Terrorism/Weapons table of international discussions, even at a time bipartisan support for the Treaty. of Mass Destruction Committee under when the global situation was not so conducive resolution 1540, it is strongly advocating to its entry into force, and they have also served In a recent speech, John McCain also the enhancement of international security as a lobbying platform. Further such sessions endorsed the concept by stating: “A quarter by improving transparency over and should serve to foster more synergy with other of a century ago, President Ronald Reagan assessing the quality of States’ national Washington-based organizations/institutions declared, ‘our dream is to see the day when implementation of this resolution. to create a stronger momentum within the nuclear weapons will be banished from the political arena in the USA, particularly in face of the Earth.’ That is my dream, too.” Q: For the last two years, special meetings the light of the upcoming elections and of the Organization of American States (OAS) later on with the new administration. McCain voted against the CTBT in Committee on Hemispheric Security have been 1999, stating at the time: “The viability convened, to consolidate the nuclear-weapon- continues on next page of our nuclear deterrent is too central to free zone in Latin America and the Caribbean our national security to rush approval of a through the Treaty of Tlatelolco, and to promote Biographical note treaty that cannot be verified and that will the full force and effect of the CTBT. facilitate the decline of that deterrent.” However, more recently, he has committed One of the goals of the OAS is to First elected as to continuing the moratorium on nuclear strengthen peace and security on the continent. president of Costa weapons testing that has existed since As a fellow member of the OAS, what influence Rica in 1986 1992, and promised to take “another look” can be exerted on the United States to ratify and re-elected in at the Treaty. the Treaty? 2006, President Oscar Arias has In order to give effect to international A: With the welcomed ratification by won international arms control and disarmament agreements, Colombia in January 2008, the United States recognition as States must bring their domestic law into is the only country from the OAS Member a spokesperson conformity with their obligations under States listed in Annex 2 of the Treaty for developing international law. The need to implement whose ratification is still outstanding. nations and for national measures was highlighted by promoting democracy, human development, the adoption of UN Security Council From the very beginning, Costa Rica demilitarization and disarmament. Resolution 1540 in April 2004. This has sponsored the resolution in support of President Arias played a pivotal role resolution obliges States to enact and the CTBT, which has been approved by in the signing of the Esquipulas Peace enforce effective laws and supporting the OAS General Assembly since 2000. Agreement, which led to the cessation measures to prevent the proliferation of We will continue to work together with of various conflicts in Central America nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, other OAS members to exert pressure during the 1980s and for which he was related materials and their means of on the USA to consider ratification as awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1987. ■

c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Pa g e 5 In the spotlight

Q: As an active and highly respected member I would like to reiterate my personal UN and the OAS General Assemblies to of the international community and with an as well as my country’s commitment to encourage these States to sign and ratify impressive record of settling disputes, Costa Rica promoting disarmament and international as soon as possible. exerts considerable influence on world affairs. peace and security, in line with Costa What role can you play, as President of Costa Rica’s traditional policy on these issues, Q: Austria and Costa Rica are currently Rica and 1987 Nobel Peace Prize Laureate, in which form one of the pillars of my sharing the presidency of the Article XIV encouraging the five remaining States in Latin administration. Conference. America – Cuba, Dominica, Guatemala, St Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad and In this regard, the Foreign Ministers How important is it that two Tobago – to ratify the CTBT? of the five outstanding States in Latin different geographic regions are jointly America have been invited to participate presiding over the Conference for the first A: Through the Tlatelolco Treaty, the in the upcoming Ministerial Meeting to time in the Treaty’s history? Latin American and Caribbean Region be held at the end of September 2008 in took a pioneer step towards international San José. This has been organized jointly A: This shared presidency symbolizes peace and security and constituted the first by Austria and Costa Rica in follow up to the global support for the Treaty. It inhabited region in the world to become a the Article XIV Conference. In addition, testifies that nuclear non-proliferation nuclear-weapon-free zone. five other States from the region who are and disarmament, as well as international strong supporters of the Treaty have also security as such, are universal concerns The CTBT supersedes the been invited to participate. in which each and every Member State of commitments of the Tlatelolco Treaty and the United Nations is a stakeholder. It also establishes a global norm against testing. In Furthermore, Costa Rica will highlights the necessity for world-wide addition, it establishes a monitoring system continue to take advantage of bilateral cooperation, a partnership, in the fight to verify compliance. meetings and multilateral fora such as the against global threats. ■

Notes & quotes

U.S. presidential candidates’ positions on the CTBT:

Senator John McCain promised to take “... another look at the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty...” if elected, while speaking at the University of Denver, Colorado, United States, on 27 May 2008.

Senator Barack Obama pledged to “... work with the Senate to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and then seek its earliest possible entry into force,” while delivering a speech at the University of Purdue, Indiana, United States, on 16 July 2008.

pa g e 6 c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Voices

Nuclear Testing: A Bygone Era by Mohamed ElBaradei

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) has been the longest “The CTBT remains crucial for global outstanding objective of the nuclear age. Envisaged more than half a century ago security. I believe we owe it to in 1954, this goal remains unmet – though ourselves, we owe it to humanity, we a CTBT was successfully negotiated and opened for signature in September 1996. owe it to people everywhere that we do our utmost to have the CTBT come Virtually all post-World War II U.S. Presidents have grappled into force as early as we can.” with this issue and President Dwight Eisenhower described the failure to achieve a permanent ban on nuclear negotiating a verifiable global FMCT; Another reason I am concerned testing as the greatest disappointment engineering a new framework for the about the CTBT not coming into force is of any administration, of any decade, nuclear fuel cycle; devaluing the role of because it is unfortunately symptomatic of any time, and of any party. nuclear weapons through de-alerting; of the slow progress overall with regard and concrete verified nuclear weapon to moving towards nuclear disarmament. Jewel in the crown of dismantlement and elimination. nuclear arms control The CTBT remains crucial for global The CTBT is essentially a security. I believe we owe it to ourselves, The CTBT, not surprisingly, has been treaty to end all nuclear explosions we owe it to humanity, we owe it to people considered arms control history’s longest permanently, in all environments, for everywhere that we do our utmost to have the sought, hardest fought for prize. Achieving all time. And, there has always been a CTBT come into force as early as we can. ■ the entry into force and implementation permanent and indissoluble link between of the CTBT would undoubtedly be the ending nuclear explosive testing and Biographical note jewel in the crown of nuclear arms control moving down the path of achieving and disarmament, supplementing the a world free of nuclear weapons Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Dr. Mohamed and the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty Key role in global security ElBaradei has (FMCT), which is still to be negotiated. been the Director Why is the CTBT so important? Because General of the For the past several years, I have it would send a very clear, very concrete International been advocating the need to take the bold signal that the nuclear-weapon States Atomic Energy steps necessary to achieve a world free are taking seriously the commitment Agency (IAEA) of nuclear weapons in our time and, in under the NPT to move towards nuclear since 1997. this regard, to fashion a new collective disarmament. But more importantly, An expert in security system that relies not on nuclear I think, because it will also make international weapons, but rather on concepts such as difficult the qualitative development of peace and security interdependent responsible sovereignty. nuclear weapons and the development and international of nuclear weapons by new countries. development, his diplomatic career Achieving a new collective began in 1964 in the Egyptian Ministry security system Without the CTBT it would be of External Affairs whilst he completed tempting for new countries to acquire his Doctorate in International Law at Achieving such a system requires nuclear weapons without violating legal the New York University School of Law. rebuilding confidence in the authority norms, as we have seen recently. Without Dr. ElBaradei and the IAEA were jointly and integrity of the NPT; securing the CTBT we might continue to see the awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005. ■ the entry into force of the CTBT; qualitative development of nuclear weapons.

c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Pa g e 7 Cover story

Nuclear Dangers: The Race between Cooperation and Catastrophe by Sam Nunn

At the dawn of the nuclear age – after unacceptable risk of an accidental, Without the bold vision, the actions the devastation of Hiroshima and mistaken or unauthorized launch. will not be perceived as fair or urgent. Nagasaki – General Omar Bradley said: Without the actions, the vision will not “The world has achieved brilliance without The bottom line: The world is be perceived as realistic or possible. wisdom...We know more about war than heading in a very dangerous direction. we know about peace, more about killing We don’t believe our example is likely than we know about living.” New vision for our global to inspire Iran, North Korea or al Qaeda to nuclear policy drop their weapons ambitions, but we believe It might surprise General Bradley, if he it would become more likely that many more were alive today, to know that we have made it With these growing dangers in mind, former nations will join us in a firm approach to 60 years without a nuclear attack. We were good, U.S. Secretaries of State George Shultz and stop the proliferation of nuclear weapons and we were diligent, but we were also very lucky. Henry Kissinger, former U.S. Secretary of materials and prevent catastrophic terrorism. Defense Bill Perry and I published an op-ed Making it through 60 years without a in January 2007, and a follow-up piece in I believe that we cannot defend ourselves nuclear attack should not make us complacent. 2008, in The Wall Street Journal that called against the nuclear threats facing the world If we’re to continue to avoid a catastrophe, for a different direction for our global today without taking these steps. We cannot all nuclear powers will have to be highly nuclear policy with both vision and steps. take these steps without the cooperation of capable, careful, competent, rational – and if other nations. We cannot get the cooperation things go wrong, lucky – every single time. The four of us, and the many other of other nations without the vision and security leaders who have joined us, are hope of a world that will some day end The world is heading in a keenly aware that the quest for a nuclear- these weapons as a threat to mankind. very dangerous direction weapon-free world is fraught with practical and political challenges. We have taken Strategic cooperation We do have important efforts underway and aim at the practical problems by linking against nuclear weapons some important successes, but the risk of a the vision of a nuclear-weapon-free world nuclear weapon being used today is growing, with a series of steps for reducing nuclear This will be a challenging process that must not receding. The storm clouds are gathering: dangers and carving a path towards a be accomplished in stages. The United States world free of the nuclear threat. must keep nuclear weapons as long as other ▪ Terrorists are seeking nuclear weapons, and there can be little doubt that if they acquire a weapon that they will use it. US senior statesmen George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger and ▪ There are nuclear weapons materials in Sam Nunn renewed their call for a nuclear-weapon-free world by supporting, more than 40 countries, some secured by among other measures, the adoption of a process for bringing the CTBT nothing more than a chain link fence. into effect, “which would strengthen the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty ▪ A number of countries are considering (NPT) and aid international monitoring of nuclear activities. This calls for a developing the capacity to enrich uranium bipartisan review, first, to examine improvements over the past decade of the to use as fuel for nuclear energy, but international monitoring system to identify and locate explosive underground this would also give them the capacity nuclear tests in violation of the CTBT; and, second, to assess the technical to move quickly to a nuclear weapons progress made over the past decade in maintaining high confidence in the program if they chose to do so. reliability, safety and effectiveness of the nation’s nuclear arsenal under a ▪ Meanwhile, the United States and test ban. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization is putting in place Russia continue to deploy thousands of new monitoring stations to detect nuclear tests – an effort the U.S should nuclear weapons on ballistic missiles urgently support even prior to ratification.” that can hit their targets in less than 30 minutes, encouraging both sides to Opinion Editorial, Wall Street Journal, 15 January 2008 continue a prompt launch capability that carries with it an increasingly

pa g e 8 c t b t o S p e c t r u M 9 | www.ctbto.org If we are to be successful in dealing with the hydra-headed threats of emerging “But we will be safer, and the world new nuclear weapon States, proliferation will be safer, if we are working of enrichment, poorly secured nuclear material and catastrophic terrorism – many toward the goal of deemphasizing nations must cooperate. We must recognize, nuclear weapons and keeping however, that these tasks are virtually impossible without the cooperation of them out of dangerous hands – and Russia. It is abundantly clear that Russia ultimately ridding our world of them.” itself faces these same threats and that its own security is dependent on cooperation with NATO and the United States.

nations do. But we will be safer, and the ▪ Enhancing verification and Global security depends world will be safer, if we are working toward enforcement capabilities – and on regional security the goal of deemphasizing nuclear weapons our political will to do both. and keeping them out of dangerous hands ▪ Building an international consensus As NATO prepares for its 60th anniversary, – and ultimately ridding our world of them. behind ways to deter and, when we must address a fundamental question. necessary, respond strongly In the years ahead, does NATO want Strategic cooperation must become the and effectively to countries that Russia to be inside or outside the cornerstone of our national defense against breach their commitments. Euro-Atlantic security arc? The same nuclear weapons. Even a quick glance at continues on page 27 the steps we are proposing in our two Wall The most difficult and challenging Street Journal essays reveals that none step is the need for redoubling our efforts to of the steps can be accomplished by the resolve regional confrontations and conflicts United States and our close allies alone: that give rise to new nuclear powers. Biographical note ▪ Changing nuclear force postures Establishing a durable security in the United States and Russia to relationship with Russia greatly increase warning time. Former Senator ▪ Reducing substantially nuclear forces There can be no coherent, effective security Sam Nunn is co- in all States that possess them. strategy to reduce nuclear dangers that does chairman and Chief ▪ Moving toward developing cooperative not take into account Russia – its strengths, Executive Officer multilateral ballistic-missile defense weaknesses, aims and ambitions. So, it of the Nuclear and early warning systems. is remarkable – and dangerous – that the Threat Initiative ▪ Eliminating short-range United States, Russia and the North Atlantic (NTI), a charitable “tactical” nuclear weapons. Treaty Organization (NATO), have not organization ▪ Working to bring the Comprehensive developed an answer to one of the most working to reduce Test Ban Treaty into force – in the fundamental security questions we face: the global threats United States and in other key States. What is the long-term role for Russia in from nuclear, ▪ Securing nuclear weapons and materials the Euro-Atlantic security arc? Whether biological and chemical weapons. He around the world to the highest standards. caused by the absence of vision, a lack of served as a United States Senator from ▪ Developing a multinational approach to political will, or nostalgia for the Cold War, Georgia for 24 years from 1972 to 1996. civil nuclear fuel production, phasing the failure of both sides to forge a mutually During his tenure in the U.S. Senate, out the use of highly enriched uranium beneficial and durable security relationship he was chairman of the Senate Armed in civil commerce, and halting the marks a collective failure of leadership in Services Committee and the Permanent production of fissile material for weapons. Washington, European capitals and Moscow. Subcommittee on Investigations. ■

c t b t o S p e c t r u M 9 | www.ctbto.org Pa g e 9 Feature article

Nuclear Weapons: An Existential Threat to Humanity by Max M. Kampelman and Thomas Graham, Jr.

Sixty-three years ago last month, the beautiful conflict would run the risk of going nuclear and Non-proliferation in exchange city of Hiroshima was devastated by the there would be no way to keep nuclear weapons for nuclear disarmament explosion of an atomic bomb. The bomb out of the hands of terrorist organizations. released the explosive equivalent of 12,500 Such an international security situation would But the NPT did not come as a free gift from tons of TNT and killed – outright, or over time have made today’s time of troubles seem like the rest of the world to the five nuclear weapon by radiation poisoning – nearly 75 percent of paradise by comparison. States; rather it is a strategic arrangement the population of that city. Three days later founded on a central bargain. That bargain similar devastation was brought to the city Nuclear Non-Proliferation was, and is, non-proliferation in exchange for of Nagasaki, and a few days after that, the Treaty prevents catastrophe the sharing of peaceful technology and nuclear Second World War, the bloodiest and most disarmament. Nuclear disarmament was destructive in the history of humanity, came Fortunately, such nuclear weapon proliferation perceived by the non-nuclear weapon States as to an end. did not happen. President Kennedy’s darkest the five nuclear weapon States agreeing over fears of catastrophe were not realized. The the long term to negotiate away their nuclear Capability to destroy the chief reason that this did not happen was arsenals so that ultimately all States would Earth several times over the entry into force of the Nuclear Non- receive equal treatment under the NPT. Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1970, along Many thought then, and in subsequent years, with the extended deterrence policies of the A comprehensive nuclear test ban that the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki United States and the Soviet Union. The NPT were the harbingers of the future and that converted what had been an act of national Since it was recognized that this would take nuclear weapons were destined to spread pride into an act of international outlawry. significant time, the non-nuclear weapon States around the world and be part of future wars, pressed the nuclear weapon States to agree to threatening the survival of humanity. These In 1960, after the first French nuclear interim measures to include a comprehensive views were reinforced by the commencement test in the Sahara, the French newspapers were nuclear weapon test ban, a prohibition on in a few years of a vast nuclear arms race overflowing with nationalistic sentiment: “Vive the further production of nuclear explosive with both the United States and the Soviet La France” and “Vive De Gaulle.” Switzerland material, a significant world-wide reduction in Union rapidly developing the capability to held two national referenda and the Swiss the number of nuclear weapons, and binding destroy the Earth many times over. public twice voted to build nuclear weapons. obligations not to use nuclear weapons against Sweden had an active nuclear weapons research non-nuclear NPT parties. Over 40 States have capacity program. After the NPT was in force, however, to build nuclear weapons when India conducted its first nuclear weapon None of these measures 40 years later test in 1974, they were condemned by the entire has been realized. One of these measures, President John F. Kennedy was one of those world and they had to hasten to declare that which was seen in 1970 as a sort of litmus who feared that nuclear weapons would their nuclear explosion was “peaceful.” test which would indicate whether or not the inherit the Earth. There were predictions five nuclear weapon States would, over time, during his administration that, by the end of 184 non-nuclear weapon live up to their side of the central bargain the 1970s, there could be as many as 15 to States agree not to acquire was a comprehensive nuclear test ban, which 20 nuclear weapon States in the world, with nuclear weapons was included in the preamble to the NPT. nuclear weapons fully integrated into national Review conferences failed several times over arsenals. If this had happened, there would The NPT essentially drew the line where the the years because of disagreement over this likely be twice or more that many today. In world was in 1970; it recognized five existing issue. When the NPT was made a permanent 2004, for example, the Director General of nuclear weapon States: the United States, the treaty in 1995, there was a recommitment to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Soviet Union (Russia), Britain, France, and conclude a test ban in one year - that is, by Mohamed ElBaradei, asserted that there were China. It provided that the rest of the world 1996. The non-nuclear weapons States’ view more than 40 States in the world that currently would agree not to acquire nuclear weapons. was, and is, that, if they are going to give up could build nuclear weapons, if they so chose. And most of the world did agree to that nuclear weapons, the five nuclear weapon Such a development would have placed the proposition. Today, 184 NPT non-nuclear States could at least agree to stop testing world community in a situation where every weapon States are committed to this obligation. their weapons.

pa g e 1 0 c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 CTBT rejection contrary to a long time to achieve, but for the first time Biographical note wishes of most Americans it is actually conceivable - indeed imperative - given the current existential dangers that A Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty threaten civilization. (CTBT) was in fact agreed to and signed in Ambassador Max 1996, but it was defeated in the U.S. Senate UN can help ensure that M. Kampelman in 1999 and has not yet come into force the disaster of Hiroshima held major - some 12 years later and some 40 years after never happens again negotiating entry into force of the NPT itself. The U.S. posts under both Senate’s rejection of the CTBT in 1999 was, But if there is to be any hope of actually Democratic incidentally, contrary to the wishes of the realizing the goal of zero nuclear weapons and Republican American public. A poll taken immediately worldwide, crucial for world security in the administrations thereafter disclosed that two thirds of the long run, it is also essential that the NPT during the 1980s. American public disapproved of the Senate’s regime not only survive but flourish and act He served as U.S. action. This remains a problem. as a real ban against the further proliferation Ambassador to the of nuclear weapons. Further, proliferation Conference on Security and Cooperation The next U.S. administration would substantially derogate from the goal in Europe from 1980 to 1984 and then and the CTBT of the elimination of nuclear weapons. The as Ambassador and Head of the U.S. near-term ratification by the United States Delegation to the Negotiations with the There are two periods in the four-year cycle and entry into force of the CTBT would Soviet Union on Nuclear and Space of the American presidency when the United significantly contribute to the strengthening Arms in Geneva from 1985 to 1989. States is most likely to review policies and of the NPT. Thus it must be pursued with Between 1987 and 1989 he also served as respond to the political exigencies of the urgency. In addition, we must look for other Counselor of the Department of State. moment: during a presidential campaign more direct ways to outlaw the further year when issues are raised, and during proliferation of nuclear weapons. Ambassador the first six months after a presidential Thomas Graham Jr. election, when a newly-elected or re-elected Important to the future of the non- was involved in the president is generally empowered to carry proliferation regime, is the utilization of negotiation and/or out commitments made or judgments held. the United Nations, which represents the review process In that connection, Senator Obama has stated people of the world. The United Nations of every major that he will support CTBT ratification and should call for the elimination of nuclear international arms Senator McCain has said he will consider it. weapons as an integral part of human control agreement survival. If we want to be absolutely in which the United Goal of eliminating nuclear certain that the disaster of Hiroshima will States participated weapons can be realized never happen again, then our dedicated between 1970 objective must be for the United Nations and 1997. These Since the publication of two Wall Street to propose a negotiating schedule to included the Strategic Arms Limitations Journal articles authored by George Shultz, reach a world-wide, verifiable and Talks (SALT) Treaties, the Strategic William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam enforceable agreement on zero nuclear Arms Reduction Talks (START) Treaties, Nunn in January 2007 and 2008 based weapons and declare that the development the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, on President Ronald Reagan’s dream to and possession of nuclear weapons is Intermediate Nuclear Force (INF) Treaty, eliminate nuclear weapons worldwide, the an international crime punishable by the NPT, Conventional Armed Forces in world community has taken new hope that total political, economic, cultural, and Europe (CFE) Treaty, and the CTBT. some day this objective could actually be if necessary, military world isolation accomplished, and the NPT central bargain and pressure. The continuing role of the Both Ambassador Kampelman and of non-proliferation in exchange for peaceful United Nations, after this, would then be Ambassador Graham acted as motivating cooperation and disarmament finally to prevent and punish violations. This is forces behind and signatories of the redeemed. The articles have contributed to something that we can achieve and that opinion-editorial Wall Street Journal paving the way for the realization of the we must achieve. Let us all work together articles: A World Free of Nuclear goal of zero nuclear weapons that has been to help make it happen. It is appropriate Weapons and Toward a Nuclear- sought since the beginning of the nuclear and timely for the United Nations to live Weapon- Free World in January 2007 age. It is recognized that this goal may take up to its potential. ■ and January 2008 respectively. ■

c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Pa g e 1 1 Perspectives

The Enduring Value of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and New Prospects for Entry Into Force by Daryl G. Kimball

The history of the nuclear age makes it clear that Treaty (NPT) regime. The nuclear weapon The situation is self-defeating opportunities to reduce the risks posed by nuclear States’ commitment to achieve the CTBT and counterproductive. Given the U.S. weapons are often very fleeting. When the right was a crucial part of the bargain that won the signature of the CTBT and its test political conditions are in place, governmental indefinite extension of the NPT in 1995 and moratorium policy, the United States leaders must seize the chance to make progress. the 2000 NPT Review Conference document. bears most CTBT-related responsibilities. Yet Washington’s failure to ratify has In 1958 and again in 1963, U.S. and Soviet U.S. Senate’s untimely rejection diminished its ability to prod other nations leaders attempted to negotiate a comprehensive of the CTBT in 1999 to join the Treaty and refrain from testing. ban on all nuclear test explosions. They came At the same time, there is no need—nor is close but failed to seal the deal. While the latter Over the years, the importance of the there any political support—for renewed effort led to the 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty, it Treaty to global security has only increased U.S. testing for new nuclear warheads or took another three decades of on-and-off efforts and international support has grown. Today, for any other reason. to conclude negotiations on a comprehensive 179 countries have signed the CTBT, and test ban treaty. During that time, hundreds more 144 countries have ratified. Unfortunately, Treaty helps prevent underground tests propelled further arms racing the U.S. Senate’s brief debate and regional conflicts and avert and proliferation. untimely rejection of the CTBT in October nuclear arms race

The CTBT is also needed to help head “T he global norm against testing remains off and deescalate regional tensions. With no shortage of conflict and hostility strong, for now. Yet the absence of CTBT in the Middle East, ratification by Israel, entry into force also means that the full Egypt, and Iran would reduce nuclear weapons-related security concerns range of verification and monitoring tools, and bring those States further into the confidence building measures, and the option nuclear non-proliferation mainstream. Action by Israel to ratify could put of on-site inspections, are not available to pressure on other States in the region help strengthen the international community’s to do so. Iranian ratification would help address concerns that its nuclear program ability to detect, deter, and if necessary could be used to develop and deploy respond to possible nuclear testing.” deliverable nuclear warheads. Likewise, North Korean accession to the CTBT would help demonstrate Today, the 1996 Comprehensive 1999, coupled with the George W. Bush the seriousness of its commitment to Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) remains administration’s opposition to the Treaty, verifiably dismantle its nuclear weapons a vital disarmament and non-proliferation has slowed the momentum. Nine key States program through the Six-Party process1. instrument. By prohibiting all nuclear test must still ratify to achieve entry into force. The ongoing India-Pakistan nuclear arms explosions it impedes the ability of States race could be substantially slowed to the possessing nuclear weapons to field new and Partially in response to U.S policy on benefit of both countries if they signed more deadly types of warheads, while also the CTBT, some countries that have signed helping to prevent the emergence of new the CTBT, such as China and Israel, 1 The Six-Party talks process aims to find a peaceful nuclear-armed States. have delayed their ratification processes. resolution to security concerns raised by the Others, including India and Pakistan, have North Korean nuclear weapons programme. The process began in response to Democratic People’s Moving forward on the CTBT is also an yet to sign the Treaty and are unlikely to Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) withdrawal from the essential step towards restoring confidence do so unless the United States, China, and NPT in 2003 and involve China, the Republic of Korea (South Korea), DPRK, the United States, in the beleaguered Nuclear Non-Proliferation perhaps other hold-outs, finally ratify. the Russian Federation and Japan.

pa g e 1 2 c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 and ratified the CTBT or agreed to an Most notably, former Republican or viability of our nuclear deterrent. This equivalent legal instrument. Secretaries of State, George Shultz and would include taking another look at the Henry Kissinger, former Democratic Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty to see what The global norm against testing Secretary of Defense, Bill Perry, and can be done to overcome the shortcomings remains strong, for now. Yet the absence retired Democratic Senator, Sam Nunn, that prevented it from entering into force.” of CTBT entry into force also means have called for a bipartisan push to ratify Whether McCain is interested in some new that the full range of verification and the CTBT as a key step toward a nuclear- continues on page 28 monitoring tools, confidence building weapon-free world. measures, and the option of on-site Biographical note inspections, are not available to help U.S. presidential candidates stress strengthen the international community’s importance of nuclear test ban ability to detect, deter, and if necessary respond to possible nuclear testing. Most importantly, the two major U.S. Daryl G. Kimball presidential candidates have both stressed is the Executive Moving forward – prospects of the importance of a nuclear test ban. Director of the ratification by the U.S. Senate Democratic nominee, Senator Barack Arms Control Obama, has repeatedly expressed support Association To begin to break the ratification logjam for the CTBT. He said on 16 July 2008 that (ACA) in and pave the way for entry into force, “…we’ll work with the Senate to ratify the Washington DC. leaders in key States must make the right Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and then He previously choices in three key areas. seek its earliest possible entry into force.” worked at Physicians First, it is essential that the next Republican presidential nominee, for Social occupant of the White House builds Senator John McCain, who voted against Responsibility, which lobbied for the upon growing bipartisan calls for the Treaty in 1999, said in a speech on U.S. nuclear test moratorium legislation U.S. reconsideration of the CTBT and 27 May 2008 that, if elected, he would of 1992. He also served as Director initiates a serious effort to engage “begin a dialogue with our allies, and with of the Coalition to Reduce Nuclear the new Senate on the issue with the the U.S. Senate, to identify ways we can Dangers, which led NGO efforts to win goal of winning two-thirds support for move forward to limit testing in a verifiable support for U.S. CTBT ratification.■ ratification by the end of 2010. manner that does not undermine the security Notes & quotes “Today, eight nations in the world have declared they have conducted nuclear tests. I am proposing to the international community an action plan to which I call on the nuclear powers to resolutely commit by the 2010 NPT Conference.

Thus I invite all countries to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, beginning with China and the United States, who signed it in 1996. It is time for it to be ratified.”

Speech by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, in Cherbourg, France, on 21 March 2008.

c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Pa g e 1 3 Verification science

Looking for the nuclear needle in the haystack: The Integrated Field Exercise 08 in Kazakhstan by Kirsten Haupt and Thomas Mützelburg

team, observers and an operation support centre in Vienna. In addition, almost 50 tonnes of equipment – the equivalent of six truckloads – have been flown to Kazakhstan. For all its scale and complexity, this exercise bears greater resemblance to a humanitarian aid operation than an inspection under a Non-Proliferation Treaty regime.

The IFE08 is the first comprehensive on- site inspection (OSI) exercise to encompass all phases of a nuclear test detection, from the first suspicious-looking seismic wave appearing on the screens at the CTBTO’s International Data Centre (IDC) in Vienna, to the findings presented in the inspection report.

On-site inspections: the ultimate verification measure

An OSI is the ultimate verification K a z a khs ta n H o s t e D p r e v i o u S e x e r c i s e S o n t h r e e o c c a s i o n S i n 1 9 9 9 , 2 0 0 2 a n D 2 0 0 5 . measure of the CTBT. Real OSIs will be possible only after the Treaty has entered Against the backdrop of the remote (CTBTO). This so-called “Integrated Field into force. Until then, all procedures and emptiness of the steppe in northern Exercise 2008” or IFE08 is taking place methods developed for such inspections Kazakhstan, a most peculiar scene throughout September 2008 in the former have to be applied on an experimental unfolds: seemingly materializing out of Soviet Union nuclear test site in Kazakhstan's basis, and equipment has to be tested for nowhere, figures clad in white plastic Semipalatinsk Region. OSIs to be operational when the Treaty overalls pour out of vehicles while at the enters into force. From then on, the same time, truckload after truckload of Largest-ever exercise CTBTO must be in a position to launch odd-looking contraptions are unloaded. undertaken by the CTBTO an OSI at a few days notice because the Within a short time, the landscape is evidence of a nuclear explosion, such as speckled with shiny white tents. The exercise is unprecedented in scope seismic aftershocks or certain radioactive and size: it involves over 200 participants, particles, fades with every passing hour. What might seem to the unsuspecting consisting of an international team of 40 The CTBTO’s OSI team must therefore onlooker like a scene from a science-fiction inspectors, the Kazakh hosts, an evaluation be veritable logistical wizards. movie actually marks the The state-of-the-art technical beginning of an methods that inspectors use inspection exercise “The integrated Field exercise is a major priority for us in on-site are diverse. They carried out by 2008. It’s important for preparing for the entry into force of may include: multi-spectral the Preparatory the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.” imaging, gamma radiation Commission for monitoring, visual observation the Comprehensive CTBTO’s Executive Secretary to detect anomalies in the Nuclear-Test- Tibor Tóth surroundings, monitoring of Ban Treaty seismic aftershocks, magnetic Organization and gravitational field mapping,

pa g e 1 4 c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 to which type of radionuclide may be measured for inspection purposes and “What counts is which must be ignored. to show the world that the CTBT’s The area to be inspected is also limited to 1000 square kilometres, which verification system is still larger than New York City with its really works.” five boroughs – a vast area for a handful of inspectors. Therefore the search for CTBTO’s Executive Secretary, evidence of a nuclear explosion can be Tibor Tóth the proverbial search for the needle in the haystack!

H e l i c o p t e r o v e r fl i g h t S a r e e ss e n t i a L t o o b ta i n All OSI procedures are set out in a g e n e r a L o v e rv i e w o F t h e i n s p e c t i o n a r e a ground penetrating radar and many more. the OSI draft operational manual, which Some of these methods are applied from the has been worked on since the inception has indeed taken place. The CTBTO’s air, typically from helicopters. of the CTBTO in 1996, and currently role will be limited to presenting the comprises – around 1000 pages including technical analysis on which the Member In spite of this technical all subsidiary documents. States base their verdict. In light of the sophistication, the OSI regime strikes constantly increasing sophistication of a careful balance between the ability The final verdict the verification system, however, these to detect signs of nuclear testing and technical findings are likely to become safeguarding the national security interest It is important to note that, according to ever more unambiguous. of the inspected Member State. In order the Treaty, it is the Member States and for the OSI to be as unobtrusive as not the CTBTO who will pronounce The system went through its baptism of possible, the technical methods permitted the final verdict on whether a nuclear fire in October 2006, when the Democratic are prescribed very precisely, even down explosion (and hence a Treaty violation) People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) declared

D e c o n ta m i n at i o n S tat i o n p r o c e d u r e s . F i e L D o ff i c e r S u s i n g S tat e - o f - t h e - a r t S e i sm i c e q u i p m e n t.

c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Pa g e 1 5 Verification science

Phases of Nuclear Test Explosion Detection

Phase 1: The International Monitoring System (IMS) watches for signs of a nuclear explosion When complete, the International Monitoring System (IMS) will consist of 321 monitoring stations and 16 laboratories worldwide. These 337 facilities will monitor the planet permanently for any sign of a nuclear explosion. 230 of these facilities are already operational. The IMS uses four complementary monitoring methods, utilizing the most modern technologies available. Seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasound stations monitor the underground, the oceans and the atmosphere respectively. Radionuclide stations detect radioactive debris from atmospheric, underground or underwater nuclear explosions.

Phase 2: Transmission of Signals to Vienna Once one or more stations have detected signals indicating a possible nuclear explosion, relevant data on the time, location and magnitude of the ‘event’, as CTBT experts refer to it, are transmitted via the Global Communications Infrastructure (GCI) to the CTBTO’s headquarters in Vienna. As the GCI uses modern communication technology such as satellites and secure data connections on the ground, it only takes up to 30 seconds for the data to be transmitted to Vienna from the time the station first registers the signal.

Phase 3: Processing and analyzing the data and transmission to Member States At the IDC in Vienna, scientists process and analyze the incoming data. The raw data and analysis results are then distributed electronically to CTBT Member States all around the world.

Phase 4: Launching an OSI at the request of a Member State At the request of one or more Member States, the CTBTO launches an OSI in order to clarify whether or not a nuclear explosion has been carried out. During such an inspection, facts are gathered to identify a possible violator of the Treaty.

that it had conducted a nuclear test. Despite the establishment of only two thirds of the IMS monitoring facilities at the time, the CTBTO proved that its verification capabilities already significantly exceeded the expectations of the Treaty’s negotiators in 1996.

After the DPRK test, the IFE08 is the next milestone in demonstrating the Treaty’s verifiability.■

Dr. Kirsten Haupt is a historian who has been working as a Public Information officer at the CTBTO since 2004. Previously, she worked for 11 years in the field of public information in peacekeeping missions in Cambodia and in the former Yugoslavia.

Thomas Mützelburg is a career diplomat with the German Foreign Service. He was the desk officer for the CTBT between 2005 and 2008 and has been seconded to the CTBTO for one year, where he is working in the Public Information section. ■ P r e pa r i n g t o F LY a M a g n e t i c p r o b e . t H i S i S o n e o F t h e o s i t e c h n i q u e S t h at wa S e x e r c i s e D i n t h e K a z a K H S t e p p e i n 2 0 0 5 .

pa g e 1 6 c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Status of certified IMS facilities

232 certified International Monitoring System (IMS) facilities as of 12 September 2008

Notes & quotes “The Australian Government has today renewed calls for universal adherence to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Its entry into force is an immediate disarmament and non-proliferation priority. The CTBT offers a vital framework for these disarmament and non-proliferation objectives, but a decade after its negotiation it is not yet in force. The Australian Government strongly supports efforts to bring the CTBT into force, and to see the completion of its verification system.”

Stephen Smith, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, in a media release issued on 12 May 2008.

c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Pa g e 1 7 Verification highlights

Building monitoring facilities in the coldest, driest and windiest continent on Earth: Antarctica by Denise Brettschneider

J o u r n e y t h r o u g H t h e i c e t o pa lm e r S tat i o n , A n ta r c t i c a .

“It was the darkness that did it. I don’t minus 37 degrees Celsius. And although Unsurprisingly, Antarctica has never had believe minus seventy temperatures would Antarctica has more fresh water than any an indigenous population of humans. Yet its be bad in daylight, not comparatively other continent, it also receives the least importance as a natural reserve is recognized bad, when you could see where you were precipitation, with only slightly more internationally. Approximately 30 nations, all going...” In The Worst Journey in the World: rainfall on average than the Sahara Desert. signatory to the 1961 Antarctic Treaty, send A Tale of Loss and Courage in Antarctica, personnel every year to perform seasonal Apsley Cherry-Garrard describes the last Its reputation as the windiest and and year-round research on the continent and expedition to the Antarctic by the explorer, least hospitable continent on Earth is in its surrounding oceans. The population Robert Scott, and his team in 1910. well-deserved. Strong katabatic winds of scientists varies from approximately caused by the drainage of cold air down 4,000 in summer to 1,000 in winter. Total darkness for six the steep slopes of the ice sheet from months a year the higher interior of the continent, have Hostile environment and been measured at over 250 km/h. These logistical challenges The long periods of constant darkness during winds sometimes ravage the continent for the winter contrast starkly with the summer several days. Blizzards are another typical In order to provide uniform coverage of months in Antarctica, when it is light for Antarctic phenomenon which can last for the globe, the Preparatory Commission almost 24 hours a day. Renowned for having a week at a time, reducing visibility to a for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban the harshest and most extreme environment on few feet. Whiteouts, in which there are Treaty Organization (CTBTO) has already earth, the world’s lowest temperature of minus no shadows or contrasts between objects established several of its monitoring 89 degrees Celsius was recorded in 1983 at causing a loss of depth perception, are facilities in remote areas that are difficult the Russian (former Soviet) Vostok research also commonplace. Explorers have been to access. These facilities are part of station in the centre of East Antarctica. The known to get lost and freeze to death the International Monitoring System mean annual temperature of the interior is while only metres away from their tents. (IMS) and include a number of stations

pa g e 1 8 c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 in Antarctica: eight seismic, infrasound and radionuclide stations have already been certified by the CTBTO as meeting defined requirements and specifications and another five stations are planned.

The IMS comprises a global network of stations and laboratories that monitor the Earth for evidence of a nuclear explosion in compliance with the provisions of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which bans all nuclear explosions on the planet.

As well as contending with an extremely hostile environment when constructing stations in Antarctica, the CTBTO is also confronted with logistical and engineering challenges: the transportation of installation equipment needs to be meticulously planned and coordinated and stations must be specially designed in order to withstand polar conditions.

There are no developed ports on the continent and only a few locations have a D i g g i n g o u t t h e w i n D n o i s e r e d u c i n g p i p e a r r ay a n D e q u i p m e n t Va u lt S at i S 5 5 . p H o t o c o u rt e S Y o F D u n c a n M a r r i o t t, g e o p hys i c a L i n s t i t u t e , u n i v e r s i t y o F a L a sk a , Fa i r b a n ks . basic wharf facility. Most coastal stations have offshore anchorages, and supplies are Buried in snow Windless Bight was chosen as transferred by boats, barges and helicopters. a location since, as the name implies, Satellite communication is extremely difficult Windless Bight is a desolate ice plain there are virtually no surface winds there due to the high latitudes — Antarctica is the devoid of any vegetation, where in contrast to the rest of Antarctica. In highest continent in the world, with an average temperatures plummet to below minus 40 addition, the infrastructure of the Antarctic height of 2,400 m above sea level —–and it is degrees Celsius. Infrasound station IS55 base that already existed provided crucial only possible from certain research facilities. is part of the IMS and uses very sensitive support for the establishment of the station. microbarometers to detect low frequency The site is powered by a hybrid sound waves which are diesel/solar power supply to ensure inaudible to humans. continuous operations and uses the United These waves can States National Science Foundation’s travel thousands of (NSF) communication system (which funds kilometres and are and manages the United States Antarctic produced by a variety of Programme) to transmit data to Denver, natural and man-made Colorado. The data are then transmitted sources, including via the CTBT’s Global Communications nuclear explosions. The Infrastructure (GCI) to the International latter events have an Data Centre (IDC) in Vienna, where identifiable signature they are processed to detect, locate which distinguishes and analyse events. The raw data and them from other types analyzed data, so-called IDC products, S e a i c e a n D S t o r M S c a n S L o w t h e J o u r n e Y D o w n . of infrasound sources. are transmitted to Member States.

c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Pa g e 1 9 Verification highlights

filled by satellites belonging to the Iridium network. The Iridium network is a commercial constellation of 66 communication satellites that circle the Earth on pole-to-pole orbits at a height of 780 kilometres. The Iridium network is unique in that it covers the whole Earth, providing communication coverage at the poles from where other satellites are not visible. The CTBTO has collaborated closely with the USGS to develop this service, which has been heralded as a breakthrough in satellite communication technology. Using this network and with the support and assistance of USGS and NSF, AS114 has been able to transmit important seismic data from the South Pole via Denver to the IDC on a 24-hour basis without interruptions since February 2007.

To facilitate operations, the IMS has provided AS114 with a special station interface computer so that it can respond to automatic data requests from the IDC. Shipping supplies and personnel to palmer station Photo Courtesy of NSF/USAP by David Bresnahan, National Science Foundation. Despite the remoteness of the station and the climatic extremes, AS114 has now Windless Bight receives about 1.5 render such opportunities extremely been fully integrated into the IMS. metres of snow accumulation every year. The challenging. The North and South equipment vaults where the microbarometers Poles are the only places on Earth 1,400 km sea voyage from are located must, therefore, be dug out every that cannot see geosynchronous Punta Arenas to Anvers Island season and replaced on top of the snow. communication satellites because Infrasound waves can generally penetrate of the distance from the Equator. Radionuclide monitoring station RN73 is the snow for several centimetres with little located at the United States owned Palmer attenuation (in the presence of attenuation, In conjunction with the United States Station on a protected harbour on the south the signal becomes weaker over distance, Geological Survey (USGS), the IMS operates western coast of Anvers Island off the i.e. with smaller amplitudes), but when the an auxiliary seismic station at the South Pole Antarctica Peninsula. The station has been layer of snow becomes too thick, the risk of – AS114. This station provides attenuation becomes higher. It is therefore data on seismic events to the also necessary to dig the wind noise reducing IDC to supplement information system, which is connected to the equipment gathered by primary seismic vaults, out of the snow every year during stations. By the time the the annual maintenance of the station. IMS has been completed, a total of 120 auxiliary seismic Communicating with the stations will have been southernmost point on the certified by the CTBTO. surface of the Earth The issue of no satellite While the Earth’s Polar Regions offer coverage for up to 12 hours unique scientific research possibilities, a day needed to be addressed their isolation and extreme climates and the gap has now been c t b t o ’ S c o mm u n i c at i o n o ff i c e r o u t s i d e a S 11 4 at t h e S o u t H p o l e .

pa g e 2 0 c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Re-attaching wind noise reduction pipe array to vault At IS55. Photo courtesy of Duncan Marriott, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks.

built on solid rock and consists of two major observation of aerosol samples of solid The radionuclide station is operated by buildings and three smaller ones, one of radionuclides or radionuclide particles. General Dynamics - Advance Information which accommodates station RN73, as well The station contains a Radionuclide Systems (GD-AIS), with the local support of the as two large fuel tanks, a helicopter pad, Aerosol Sampler Analyser (RASA), NSF. The station is unmanned most of the time and a dock. Palmer Station can occupy a which is a fully integrated and automatic with a local operator visiting the station at least maximum of 46 people and is staffed all system for monitoring airborne once every two weeks to perform a physical year round, although the population during radionuclides. The meteorological security and operational check on the RASA. the winter months is usually about 15. system is located on a mast on the roof of the building and is connected to the Complete global coverage Delivering supplies to stations in RASA computer. It includes sensors Antarctica requires careful planning and to measure temperature, barometric The extreme geographical and climatic access to specially constructed vessels. The pressure, humidity, precipitation, wind conditions in Antarctica mean that installing and Research Vessel R/V Laurence M. Gould, a speed and wind velocity. The RASA maintaining monitoring stations is a costly and ship with an ice-strengthened hull designed software controls the station equipment complicated exercise. By establishing stations for year-round polar operations, supports and gathers information about the in such places, the IMS network provides research in the Antarctic Peninsula region airflow, air sampler temperature and complete global coverage, thereby acting as a by transporting supplies, researchers and pressure etc. and meteorological data. powerful deterrent to potential violators. ■ staff between Punta Arenas in Chile and Palmer Station. The 1,400 km journey takes As with IS55 and AS114, this Denise Brettschneider is working as a approximately four days, although sea ice information is sent through the NSF’s writer and editor with the CTBTO’s Public and storms can slow the journey down. communication system from Palmer Station Information section. She has a number of to Denver and from there to the IDC via years of editorial experience working for RN73 is part of a network of 80 the GCI. RN73 has been transmitting data organizations in Kenya including the United radionuclide monitoring stations that via the United States to the IDC every Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural enables the continuous worldwide two hours since November 2005. Organization. ■

c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Pa g e 2 1 Secretariat snaphots

A Global Scientific Endeavour: The International Scientific Studies Project by Yvonne Yew

Hydroacoustic technology first evolved at designed to address the beginning of the 20th century to increase the readiness and “To cooperate with science is not a luxury that the safety of sea travel and was soon used capability of the CTBT we can have or not, but a necessity for the for submarine navigation and detection. to detect nuclear long-term sustainability of this organization.” Nowadays, it also helps in the research of explosions worldwide. whale populations and their migration patterns, Progress made in all Ola Dahlman, Special Advisor in climate change studies and in tsunami four technologies on the ISS project warning systems. over the last ten years will be highlighted. This is one of the cutting-edge The project will technologies – together with seismology, examine the performance of the CTBT’s global the world. The CTBTO is the facilitator and infrasound and radionuclide monitoring – that verification system and its ability to detect and coordinator of the project but will not be the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty locate observed events. It will also evaluate the performing the evaluation. This will be the task (CTBT), which bans all nuclear explosions on timeliness, quality and quantity of data which are of the international scientists and institutions Earth, uses to monitor the planet for evidence of produced, transmitted, processed and distributed participating in the project. International Treaty violations. These four technologies are and the effective use of the data for potential civil participation is essential in order to assess the part of the CTBT’s verification regime, which and scientific applications. CTBT’s verification regime both independently has been established to ensure compliance and credibly. The studies and assessments with the Treaty. The resulting verification data The project is particularly important will be carried out between 2008 and 2009, also offer a wide range of civil and scientific since the CTBT’s verification regime must culminating in a final report highlighting applications with the potential to contribute be fully operational by the time the Treaty the key findings. These findings will also be significantly to sustainable development, enters into force. presented at a large scientific conference in knowledge expansion and human welfare. Vienna in June 2009. Global undertaking Launched in March 2008, the International This will be a major priority for Scientific Studies (ISS) project involves a series The project is a global undertaking that is the Preparatory Commission for the of independent scientific studies and assessments open to experts and institutions from around Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

O p e r at i o n c e n t r e at t h e i D C , c t b t o H e a dq u a r t e r s , V i e n n a , a u s t r i a I n f r a s o u n D p r o pa g at i o n

pa g e 2 2 c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 importance. Through the ISS project, this mutually beneficial relationship between the CTBTO and the global scientific community is being developed and strengthened continuously.

International interest

Several phases have been planned for the ISS project leading up to the 2009 Conference. The Planning Meeting took place in March 2008 and concluded the first phase of the ISS project. Over 100 experts and officials from 33 countries participated, reflecting the great interest generated by the project. The meeting discussed scientific work on eight topic areas that were identified as relevant to the ISS studies: system performance, seismology, hydroacoustics, infrasound, radionuclides, atmospheric transport modelling, on-site inspections, and data mining.

S e i smi c S tat i o n at J a n M ay e n , no rway The ISS has now progressed beyond Organization (CTBTO) in its 2009 Civil and scientific benefits its planning phase. Scientific studies and calendar. Keynote addresses across relevant research projects are currently being disciplines, presentations, round-table There are many potential applications of the undertaken by the participating scientific discussions and poster sessions are envisaged CTBT’s verification data in addition to those institutions. Several planned ISS-related at the conference. The conference results mentioned earlier. These include research on workshops and PTS activities will also feed will be published in August 2009 and its ocean processes and marine life; volcanic into the ISS process, including the findings comprehensive findings could assist Member eruption monitoring for aviation safety; and related to the On-Site Inspection Integrated States in their assessment of the verifiability research on the structure of the Earth, its oceans Field Exercise (IFE08) that is taking place of the Treaty. and the atmosphere. By rapidly acquiring and in September 2008, at Semipalatinsk, disseminating data on earthquakes, especially Kazakhstan (see article on page 14). Capacity building tsunami-generating earthquakes, seismic data can also assist in disaster management and The ISS project is an inclusive and It is the CTBTO Member States that are response efforts, thus helping to save lives. dynamic process. It continues to remain responsible for making an assessment open to experts and institutions with of the data received from the CTBTO’s For CTBT verification data and relevant interests in the Treaty’s verification International Data Centre (IDC). As such, technologies to be used most effectively for technologies. ■ it is important for States to increase their civil and scientific purposes, the exchange of technical knowledge base, as well as develop ideas needs to be encouraged. An on-going Yvonne Yew is a consultant with the the facilities needed to participate fully in the dialogue with the scientific community helps CTBTO working on the ISS project. Prior implementation and monitoring of the Treaty. raise awareness about the considerable scientific to this, she was a career diplomat with the In maintaining and developing the CTBT as and technological advances which are of Singapore Foreign Service covering regional a global Treaty, the ISS project contributes relevance to the CTBT. An analysis of these and multilateral issues including the to the capacity building potential of Member developments in relation to the establishment of International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board States. the Treaty’s verification regime is of immense of Governors meetings from 2004 to 2006. ■

c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Pa g e 2 3 Verification science and potential civil applications

The importance of Atmospheric Transport Modelling: Over ten years of cooperation between the World Meteorological Organization and the CTBTO by Peter Chen, Gerhard Wotawa and Andreas Becker

Fact box – Atmospheric Transport Modelling (ATM)

ATM is an integral part of radionuclide monitoring, which is carried out by the CTBT’s radionuclide facilities that belong to the International Monitoring System. Radionuclide monitoring technology is complementary to the three waveform verification technologies – seismic, infrasound and hydroacoustic – employed by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty’s (CTBT) verification regime to monitor compliance with the Treaty. While waveform monitoring is utilized for event detection and location and could be used to differentiate between an earthquake and an explosion, detecting relevant radionuclides or noble gases is essential for the unambiguous identification of the nuclear origin of an event. Radionuclide technology combined with ATM thus provides the means to identify the “smoking gun” needed to prove a possible violation of the Treaty. With its “forensic proof” of nuclear explosions, radionuclide technology is of crucial importance to the entire verification effort.

When high levels of radiation (caesium-137) region and then provide Member States with consistent with a hypothesized release from set off alarms at the Forsmark Nuclear Power relevant information. the event in the DPRK. Plant in Sweden on 26 April 1986, the world was taken by surprise. There had been a complete ATM backtracking reveals Potential civil, humanitarian, melt down of the reactor core at a nuclear power sources of radionuclides and scientific applications plant in Chernobyl in the Soviet Union, on 25 April at 21:23 local time. Over the next 10 days, This was the case when measurements of These cases illustrate the importance of ATM the amount of radioactive caesium1 released into caesium as low as one micro-Becquerel2 per technology: it is not surprising that this is the the atmosphere amounted to 10 percent of all the m3 were detected in northern Canada between key area among meteorological applications in caesium injected into the environment during 2003 and 2004. They were analyzed carefully which the CTBTO and WMO work together. In the entire period of atmospheric nuclear testing by the IDC and traced back to forest fires in addition to emergency response, data from the between 1945 and 1980. Siberia and Alaska. The burnt trees had taken CTBT’s IMS have been useful in other areas up the caesium decades earlier during nuclear such as disaster mitigation. In 2007, for instance, Major advances in ATM testing and later during the Chernobyl accident. the CTBTO entered into a collaborative project calculations since Chernobyl This study was carried out in cooperation with with WMO, involving one of its centres at experts from the WMO Centre in Montreal and Toulouse, France, which has been designated At the time of the Chernobyl nuclear accident, other organizations in Canada. as an International Civil Aviation Organization provisions for near-real-time ATM calculations, (ICAO) Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC). which would have helped to detect the source Another example illustrating the of the caesium radionuclides earlier, hardly importance of ATM backtracking was when Volcanic ash represents a serious aviation existed. the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea hazard. Its prompt detection and location through (DPRK) announced that it had conducted a the use of infrasound data and the prediction of Nowadays, the measurement of nuclear test on 9 October 2006. Two weeks its movement through forward ATM calculations radionuclides with concentrations dramatically later, the CTBTO’s International Monitoring can be very useful. Such information provides lower than the 1986 values detected in Sweden System (IMS) radionuclide noble gas station at aircraft with early warnings of possible airborne would trigger a swift response: several World Yellowknife, Canada, registered an unusually ash plumes and could also provide guidance for Meteorological Organization (WMO) Centres high concentration of xenon3 133 (in the order air traffic re-routing decisions. The exploratory would be requested to supply atmospheric of milli-Becquerel per m3). Applying ATM to phase of this project covers selected volcanoes backtracking calculations to the Preparatory backtrack the dispersion of the gas, the noble in the European and African regions and some Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear- gas detection at Yellowknife was found to be initial contacts have been established with other Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) to 1 Caesium (or cesium) is a soft, silvery-gold alkali metal with a melting point of 28° C.Radioactive forms of caesium are supplement their own calculations. In the event produced by the fission of uranium in fuel elements during the normal operation of nuclear power plants, or when nuclear of an anomalous radionuclide being detected, weapons are exploded. 2 Becquerel is the amount of radioactive material in which 1 atom transforms every second. the CTBTO’s International Data Centre (IDC) 3 Xenon is a chemical element in gaseous form, which is called a noble gas since it is inert and rarely reacts with staff would try to identify its possible source other chemicals. Several of its radioactive isotopes, of which one of the isotopes is xenon-133, can only be produced by a nuclear reaction and are therefore measured to detect clandestine underground nuclear explosions.

pa g e 2 4 c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Verification science and potential civil applications

S u r fa c e g r o u n D D e p o s i t i o n o F c a e s i u m - 1 3 7 r e l e a s e D i n e u r o p e a f t e r t h e c H e r n o b Y L a c c i d e n t. i L L u s t r at i o n c o u r t e S Y o F e c / i g c e , r o shyd r o m e t ( R u ss i a ) / M i n c h e r n o b LY ( u K r a i n e ) / B e lhyd r o m e t ( B e l a r u s ), 1 9 9 8 .

VAACs to extend the investigations to other involved in the design of the CTBT’s regions in the world. radionuclide network. During the CTBT ATM is an advanced computer-based negotiations from 1994 to 1996, the Group technology for the calculation of the ATM also plays an important role in of Scientific Experts (GSE) that had been travel path of a given radionuclide, using the CTBTO’s International Scientific Studies created to lay the scientific and technical meteorological data. this calculation project (see article on page 22), which aims ground for the Treaty negotiations, conducted can be performed in one of two ways: to estimate the capabilities of current ATM several global experiments in international procedures and explore ways of further data exchange. WMO provided its Global ▪ As backtracking ATM, which tries improving their accuracy. WMO acts as the Telecommunications System (GTS) for use in to identify the area from which a Topic Coordinator for ATM in this project. these exchanges. radionuclide may have been released Future cooperation may be extended to other calculated from the location where it important areas such as climate change. At the same time, ATM was used together was observed; or as with historical global weather data to simulate WMO’s role in the design of the the spread of airborne radionuclides in various ▪ Forward ATM, which predicts CTBT’s radionuclide network fictitious atmospheric explosion scenarios. The where radionuclides may travel results enabled the GSE to make significant from their known point of release. Even before the formation of the CTBTO, advances towards designing what later became WMO and several of its members were the model for the current IMS, especially the

c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Pa g e 2 5 Verification science and potential civil applications

final configuration of the CTBT’s radionuclide Mutual organizational A small WMO-CTBTO task group also network. WMO also conducted research on the arrangements reviewed possible areas of technical cooperation use of measurement-based ATM to determine between the two organizations in 1998 and the possible source region of an airborne Prior to the establishment of the CTBTO, identified mutual benefits in ATM and potential material detected at the surface of the Earth, and Ambassador Wolfgang Hoffmann of data exchange. WMO’s Commission for Basic presented its findings to the Treaty negotiators. Germany, who became the CTBTO’s first Systems, the technical commission responsible Executive Secretary in March 1997, contacted for the World Weather Watch Programme, first The “Informal Meeting to Discuss the WMO to explore the possibility of applying invited CTBTO representatives to its meetings Applications of Atmospheric Modelling to ATM in conjunction with radionuclide of technical experts involved with ATM CTBT Verification” hosted by the WMO Centre technology as part of the proposed IMS. technologies in 1999. These meetings initially in Canada, also provided a forum for scientists This would enhance Treaty verification and focused on environmental emergency response to exchange ideas and ongoing research that would mean that the proposed monitoring such as in the event of a nuclear accident, later were thought at the time to contribute to ATM system would not rely primarily on seismic incorporating new requirements related to applications for Treaty verification. monitoring, as had been foreseen initially. CTBT verification.

Joint activities and exchange of data and expertise

The two organizations formalized their cooperation in an agreement in 2000, which entered into force in May 2003 after approval by the CTBTO and the WMO Congress. The exchange of data and expertise within this framework has greatly contributed to the work of both organizations.

Below are a few examples of this collaboration, which dates back to 2002 in anticipation of the agreement entering into force:

▪ Continuous provision of meteorological data measured at the Treaty’s radionuclide stations by the CTBTO to WMO since 2002. These data are then distributed globally through WMO’s GTS.

▪ First coordinated experiment between the organizations on source region estimation in 2003. This was a major breakthrough in terms of real-time data exchange and analysis and was repeated in 2005.

▪ Agreement by the CTBTO, in principle, in early 2005 to release IMS data on natural radionuclides for WMO Programmes (see S e l e c t e D V o l c a n o e S ( r e D t r i a n g l e s ) u n d e r r e s p o n s i b i l i t Y o F Va a c i n t o u l o u s e a n D i MS i n f r a s o u n D S tat i o n S u s e D F o r D e t e c t i o n r e v i e w ( b l a c K D i a m o n ds ). Spectrum 7, December 2005). These data

pa g e 2 6 c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Cover story

The Race between Cooperation and Catastrophe by Sam Nunn

continued from page 9

can be used for the verification of weather models as well as for science and research. “The common interests of the United ▪ Inclusion of the CTBTO-WMO response system for atmospheric backtracking in States, Europe, Russia, China, Japan, the WMO Manual for the Global Data and many other nations are more aligned Processing and Forecasting System in 2007. A third joint exercise was conducted today than at any point in modern history. in December 2007 to perform a final verification of this response system, which I believe that we must seize this historic became operational on 1 September 2008 opportunity and act accordingly.” ▪ Joint article on quality assessment of ATM backtracking in support of CTBT verification, published inAtmospheric Environment 41 (2007) pp 4520-4534. question, of course, must be asked by To me, the goal of a world free of the Russians. If our answer is outside, nuclear weapons is like the top of a very This article will continue in the next then it’s simple – we both just keep doing tall mountain. It is tempting and easy to edition of Spectrum, describing in more detail what we are now doing. If the answer say: “We can’t get there from here.” It the 2007 CTBTO-WMO exercise mentioned is inside, we and Russia must make is true that today in our troubled world above and other ongoing activities. ■ adjustments in strategy and tactics. we can’t see the top of the mountain.

The common interests of the But we can see that we are heading Biographical note United States, Europe, Russia, China, down – not up. We can see that we must Japan, and many other nations are more turn around, that we must take paths Peter Chen is Chief of the Data Processing aligned today than at any point in modern leading to higher ground and that we and Forecasting Systems Division at WMO. history. I believe that we must seize this must get others to move with us. He joined WMO in 2004 and is currently historic opportunity and act accordingly. in charge of coordinating operational Nearly 20 years ago, U.S. President weather forecasting for National Bottom line: In an age fraught with Ronald Reagan asked an audience to Meteorological Services of WMO, including the dangers of nuclear proliferation and imagine that “all of us discovered that we numerical weather prediction, and ATM catastrophic terrorism, global security were threatened by a power from outer for environmental emergency response. depends on regional security. Twenty space—from another planet.” The President years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, then asked: “Wouldn’t we come together Dr. Gerhard Wotawa is a specialist in establishing a more cooperative and to fight that particular threat?” After the modelling of atmospheric chemistry productive relationship with Russia will letting that image sink in for a moment, and transport. He joined the CTBTO in require Europe’s leadership as well as the President Reagan came to his point: “We October 2000 and currently works as an United States’. now have a weapon that can destroy the Atmospheric Sciences Officer at the IDC. world -- why don’t we recognize that threat A world free of more clearly and then come together with Dr. Andreas Becker is an Atmospheric nuclear weapons one aim in mind: how safely, sanely, and Sciences Officer in charge of ATM quickly can we rid the world of this threat software development at the IDC. He The reaction of many people to the vision to our civilization and our existence.” joined the CTBTO in 2001 and is a and steps to eliminate the nuclear threat specialist in the field of coupling of ATM comes in two parts – on the one hand they If we want our children and systems in support of environmental say: “That would be great.” And their second grandchildren to ever see the mountain top, measurement campaigns. ■ thought is: “We can never get there.” we must begin to answer this question. ■

c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Pa g e 2 7 Perspectives

The Enduring Value of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and New Prospects for Entry Into Force by Daryl G. Kimball

continued from page 13

test limitation initiative or will eventually find a way to endorse the 1996 Treaty is not clear. “... it is incumbent upon each of the It is clear that in order to gain the world’s major nuclear suppliers and necessary support for ratification, the next U.S. president must do more than CTBT signatories to unequivocally study the CTBT and should not try to state that if India tests, they would renegotiate or amend it. A full-scale effort will require strong presidential leadership, terminate nuclear trade with India. a high-level CTBT coordinator, and an Each also has a responsibility to effective NGO advocacy campaign. actively seek India’s early consideration High-level diplomatic and support for the CTBT.” pressure must continue on “hold-out” States

Second, leaders of States committed to the when they approved an India-specific waiver To address the severe shortcomings CTBT must exercise much more consistent, from NSG guidelines on 6 September 2008 of the NSG’s decision, it is incumbent top-level diplomacy in support of entry into without any call for New Delhi to translate upon each of the world’s major nuclear force. The numerous statements by individual its political pledge not to test into a legally- suppliers and CTBT signatories to governments and regional groupings of binding and enforceable commitment by unequivocally state that if India tests, States are essential but are not sufficient. Too joining the CTBT. they would terminate nuclear trade with often, they fail to press their counterparts in India. Each also has a responsibility to the nine CTBT hold-out States. Worse still, the United States, France, the actively seek India’s early consideration United Kingdom, and Russia, each of whom and support for the CTBT. If, as Prime One important opportunity will be the stand to profit from nuclear trade with India, Minister Manmohan Singh said in July “Friends of the CTBT” Foreign Ministers opposed a group of six responsible like-minded 2005, India is prepared to take on the meeting in New York this September, when NSG States, plus Japan, that sought to establish responsibilities expected of other advanced foreign ministers from CTBT ratifying a clear and unambiguous NSG policy to nuclear nations, it is reasonable to expect States will gather to issue their biennial terminate trade if India resumes testing. that India should agree to a legally-binding joint statement calling for the Treaty’s entry test moratorium, as the five original into force. Another is the next Conference Following the NSG’s reluctant approval nuclear-weapon states have all done. on Facilitating the Entry into Force of of the India-specific waiver, several States the CTBT, likely to take place in the fall delivered national statements to clarify their Securing the Treaty’s of 2009, to help prod the U.S. president views on how the NSG’s policy on India entry into force and other hold-outs to approve the Treaty. should be implemented. Japan, and perhaps China merits special attention. For years, others, noted that if India resumed testing, CTBT entry into force is within reach. With Beijing has reported that the Treaty is “the logical consequence is to terminate the 2008 U.S. election and the 2010 NPT before the National People’s Congress for trade.” Review Conference approaching, it is vital consideration but has apparently taken no to redouble efforts to secure ratification by action to win legislative approval. Indeed, paragraph 3 of the NSG key CTBT hold-out States, accelerate work statement undeniably says the “basis” of to complete the International Monitoring U.S. nuclear trade with India the India specific waiver is the July 2005 System, and avoid developments that would pledge and the 5 September 2008 statement damage the CTBT regime. The next one to Unfortunately, the 45 participating countries by India’s External Affairs Minister, Pranab two years may represent the best opportunity of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) failed Mukherjee, which included a pledge to to secure the future of this long-awaited and a third important leadership test on the CTBT maintain India’s nuclear test moratorium. much-needed Treaty. ■

pa g e 2 8 c t b t o S p e c t r u M 1 1 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 Editor-in-Chief: publishe d b y : Annika Thunborg, Spokesperson, Chief of Public Information Public Information Prepared, coordinated and edited by: Denise Brettschneider Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban CTBTO staff contributors: Treaty Organization (CTBTO) Awoba Bagshaw, Michael Balgavy, Marion Berrens, Nicolas Brachet, Paola Campus, Luis Cella, Herbert Gohla, Boris Kvok, Vienna International Centre Adrea Mach, Mordechai Melamud and Yuri Staravoit P.O. Box 1200 1400 Vienna, Austria Layout and design: Todd Vincent T +43 1 26030 6200 F +43 1 26030 5823 Distribution: Christian Evertz E [email protected] I www.ctbto.org Photographs and illustrations are at the courtesy of the authors and the Provisional Technical Secretariat. If you wish to subscribe to the online version of the CTBTO Spectrum, © 2008 CTBT Preparatory Commission CTBTO Spectrum – ISSN: 1680-533X please visit the ‘email-alert’ area of our web site at www.ctbto.org. printed in Austria, September 2008 www.ctbto.org