“Reliance on nuclear weapons . . . is becoming Toward a World increasingly hazardous and decreasingly without effective.” George P. Shultz William J. Perry Henry A. Kissinger Nuclear Weapons Sam Nunn

Vision Momentum

Steps Change

i The Nuclear Security Project (NSP) seeks to galvanize global action to reduce urgent nuclear dangers and build support for reducing reliance on nuclear weapons, ultimately ending them as a threat to the world.

ii The Cold War is now decades behind us, yet A New nuclear weapons today present a growing Tthreat—with terrorist organizations seeking the ultimate weapons of mass devastation and the Vision list of states with nuclear weapons expanding. for a Amid rising global concern about the dramatic threat posed by nuclear weapons and materials, four senior U.S. statesmen have joined forces to make Changing a difference. They form a powerful, nonpartisan alliance of former Cold Warriors: two Republicans World and two Democrats with deep national security credentials who have come together in a new era to work toward the goal of a world without The nuclear weapons. Nuclear Former Secretary of State George P. Shultz, former Defense Secretary William J. Perry, former Secretary Security of State Henry A. Kissinger and former Senator Sam Nunn laid out their vision and the practical, urgent Project steps to get there in a groundbreaking series of co-authored Wall Street Journal op-eds published since 2007. The Impact Is Clear

Since the first op-ed was published: and the steps you outline seem most reasonable to me.”  In 2008, both candidates for U.S. President— Senators John McCain and Barack Obama— The op-  In September 2009, the United Nations Security endorsed President Ronald Reagan’s vision of a Council approved a resolution endorsing the ed article in “ world without nuclear weapons. vision of a world without nuclear weapons and the Wall Street  President Barack Obama declared that efforts called for implementation of many of the steps Journal caught toward “the peace and security of a world outlined by the four American statesmen. the nuclear world without nuclear weapons” would be official  Similar sets of former officials from 13 U.S. policy. by surprise. Not countries have joined together across party for the argument  Former U.S. President George H.W. Bush wrote lines—­including in Britain, France, Germany, it made but for in correspondence made public in a 2012 book Italy, Russia and South Korea—to support about the work of the four statesmen, “I would the initiative and spur actions by their own who was making love to see ‘a world free of nuclear weapons;’ governments toward the goal. it . . . a remarkable quartet of political figures. — Los Angeles” Times, January 15, 2012

The four leaders meeting with President Obama in the Oval Office, May 2009

2 About the Nuclear Security Project

Until the Wall The Nuclear Security Project (NSP) Street Journal coordinates the efforts of the four NSP “ principals—George P. Shultz, William article, even the J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger and Sam thought of ridding Nunn—and works with partners and the world of networks around the world, focusing on two goals: nuclear weapons Last month,  Addressing the tough technical and seemed like a pie- Nunn wrote an in-the-sky idea. policy issues involved in taking “ concrete steps toward building a op-ed article in And while none world without nuclear weapons. The Wall Street of the influential  Generating global momentum to Journal with four believes build broad international support for former Secretaries it will happen the vision and steps to reduce the risks of State Henry posed by nuclear weapons—among Reducing anytime in the Nuclear Risks A FrAmework Fo Kissinger and governments, political leaders and in Europe r Action edited by Steve Andre An d iSAbelle ASen near future, they w the public. illiAmS George Shultz and have made it at Recognizing that progress requires former Secretary least a possibility international consensus and action, of Defense William one day for the NSP is designed to motivate Perry that sent their children or governments to rethink policies, change waves through direction and act on the steps that will grandchildren. the foreign-policy Featured reduce the risk of a nuclear weapon essay: “t he race bet ween cooperation and c atastrophe” by sa — Carnegie ” being used anywhere on the globe. m NuNN establishment. Results, To achieve these goals, NSP — The New York Summer 2011 activities have included high-level conferences; ” Times Magazine, studies that reach government decision-makers and February 25, experts; speaking engagements by the four principals; and the production of a major documentary about 2007 the principals, their vision and the steps. The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), a non- partisan, non-profit organization co-chaired by Sam Nunn, serves as coordinator of the NSP, in cooperation with Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.

3 Answering the Tough Questions How is a “nuclear weapons–free” world verified? These four What kind of monitoring and enforcement would gentlemen . . . be necessary? How can the world be confident that “ civil nuclear materials remain in peaceful use? are hard-headed, The Project recruits practitioners and experts tough defenders in the field to develop the technical and policy of American answers to challenging questions, like these, interests and that must be rigorously assessed in any practical  Stability at lower numbers American discussion of a world without nuclear weapons. Small Nuclear Forces: Five Perspectives, by At Stanford’s Hoover Institution in October Malcolm Chalmers, Andrew Somerville and security . . . . 2007, the NSP principals held a conference to Andrea Berger, Royal United Services Institute What they have build on the ideas introduced in the first op- (RUSI) come together to ed. The four have since presided over high-level help galvanize gatherings in Oslo, Berlin, Rome, Munich and  Deterrence is a recognition London as well as additional meetings at Stanford Disarming Doubt: The Future of Extended that we do not to consider the complex political and technical Nuclear Deterrence in East Asia, by Rory Medcalf want a world issues related to the vision and steps. and Fiona Cunningham, Lowy Institute for of continued To inform and broaden those discussions, the International Policy NSP commissions research and analysis to address nuclear technical issues and questions. Example of topics  Nuclear policy and doctrine proliferation. and analysis include: Contemporary Nuclear Doctrines, by Alexi ” Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin and Sergey — President  Verification Oznobishchev, Institute of World Economy and Obama, 2009 Cultivating Confidence: Verification, Monitoring, International Relations (IMEMO) and Enforcement in a World Free of Nuclear Weapons, edited by Corey Hinderstein, Nuclear Reducing Nuclear Risks in Europe: A Framework Threat Initiative (NTI) for Action, edited by Steve Andreasen and Isabelle Williams, Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI)

4 Educating the Public The Project produced Nuclear Tipping Point, a documentary film narrated by actor Michael Douglas, introduced by former U.S. Secretary of State General Colin Powell, and featuring interviews with the principals and other leaders, among them former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev. After a premiere at Universal Studios in Los Angeles, the film was broadcast and screened President Ronald Reagan during negotiations in around the world, including at the White House Reykjavik with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, 1986

We both believed“ that a world of the future could prosper only if it’s a world without nuclear weapons.

— Former” Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on disarmament talks with Ronald Reagan in Nuclear Tipping Point

Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini, Shultz and Nunn at the Overcoming Nuclear Dangers conference, Rome 2009 5 shortly before the 2010 Nuclear Security Summit in The film is available for free at www. Washington, DC. From Israel to India, Argentina NuclearTippingPoint.org in 35-minute and to Moscow, people have watched the film and 55-minute versions. The DVD includes subtitles in discussed the questions it raises. Chinese, Japanese, Russian, French, German and It is Spanish and captions in English for the hearing important at impaired. The Stanford Program on International “ and Cross-Cultural Education (SPICE) prepared a this time in our guide for high school teachers, which can be used international with the film. Free to download, it is available at history that we spice.stanford.edu. all come together The activities of the four statesmen—along behind this with physicist Sidney Drell—are chronicled in The initiative . . . Partnership: Five Cold Warriors and Their Quest to Ban the Bomb (HarperCollins, January 2012) by ” Philip Taubman. The New York Times called the — Former U.S. Former Secretary of State Colin Powell, Nuclear Secretary Tipping Point book “fascinating and haunting.” of State Colin Powell in Nuclear Tipping Point I would love to“ see a ‘world free of nuclear weapons;’ and the steps you outline seem most reasonable to me.

— George” H.W. Bush, in a letter to George P. Shultz, from The White House screening of Nuclear Tipping Point, April 2010 Partnership

6 The Nuclear Security Project does more than just call for a Steps to world without nuclear weapons, it tackles the challenging process for getting there. In their Wall Street Journal op-eds, the four principals outlined the urgent and practical steps: a Safer 1. Work with leaders of countries with nuclear weapons to turn the goal of a world without nuclear weapons into a World joint enterprise. 2. Discard Cold War posture of deployed nuclear weapons for U.S. and Russian forces to reduce the danger of accidental, mistaken or unauthorized launch. 3. Substantially reduce nuclear forces in all countries that Without the possess them. bold“ vision, the 4. Eliminate short-range battlefield nuclear weapons actions will not be designed to be forward deployed. perceived as fair 5. Adopt a process to bring the Comprehensive Test Ban or urgent. Without Treaty into effect. the actions, the 6. Secure all nuclear weapons and materials globally to the vision will not highest possible standards. be perceived as realistic or 7. Develop a new international system to manage the risks possible. associated with producing fuel for nuclear power. 8. Halt the production globally of plutonium and highly — George” P. Shultz, William enriched uranium for weapons purposes; phase out the J. Perry, Henry use of HEU in civil commerce and remove weapons-usable A. Kissinger uranium from research facilities around the world and and Sam Nunn, render it safe. The Wall Street Journal, 9. Redouble efforts to resolve regional conflicts that give January 4, 2007 rise to new nuclear powers. 10. Strengthen verification and enforcement capabilities.

7 Margaret Beckett, former Los Angeles Premiere of Nuclear Tipping Point, Universal Studios, 2010 British Foreign Secretary

January The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) publishes first op-ed, “A World Free January of Nuclear Weapons,” Second WSJ op-ed outlining the vision and highlights widespread steps. U.S. and international support. January Mikhail Gorbachev February supports the call for Russian Foreign Minister urgent action in a WSJ Sergey Lavrov states that op-ed. NSP ideas “are in line with Russia’s initiatives.” June UK Foreign Secretary May Margaret Beckett Presidential candidate announces UK John McCain endorses the government’s broad vision of a world without support for the “vision nuclear weapons, quoting and steps agenda.” Ronald Reagan. January September U.S. President Ronald October U.S. President John F. Reagan tells the nation, December Kennedy tells the UN “My dream is to see Presidential candidate Global Zero, an General Assembly, “The the day when nuclear Barack Obama says that if international grassroots weapons of war must be weapons will be banished he is elected, U.S. policy movement for the abolished before they from the face of the will be to seek a world elimination of nuclear abolish us.” earth.” without nuclear weapons. weapons, launches.

VISION • STEPS • MOMENTUM • CHANGE • CHANGE • MOMENTUM • STEPS VISION 1961 1984 2007 2008 8 VISION • STEPS • MOMENTUM • CHANGE

January Third WSJ op-ed from the four focuses on maintaining the safety, security and reliability of the U.S. nuclear deterrent. Senator John McCain, 2008 Joan Rohlfing, Nuclear Security Summit, Seoul, 2012 presidential debate January January Nuclear Tipping Point premieres in Los Angeles, The Partnership: Five Cold with screenings in Warriors and Their Quest Chicago and Washington, February to Ban the Bomb by Philip DC, to follow. The New START Treaty Taubman (HarperCollins) April enters into force, reducing is released. In Prague, President April by 2018 the number Obama establishes vision of deployed strategic March of a world without nuclear More than 40 world weapons to 1,550 in the More than 50 world weapons as U.S. policy. leaders gather in U.S. and Russia. Washington, DC, for the leaders convene for a first Nuclear Security second Nuclear Security May Summit. March Summit in Seoul, South Four NSP principals meet Fourth WSJ op-ed from Korea. with President Obama in April the four NSP principals the Oval Office. focuses on deterrence MAY Nuclear Tipping Point in the age of nuclear screened at the White European Leadership September proliferation. House with four NSP Network (ELN) releases Four NSP principals meet principals. statement by 47 members with directors of U.S. May calling on NATO to take Department of Energy steps to reduce nuclear December Nuclear Tipping Point nuclear weapons labs. screened in the UK risks. New START is ratified by Parliament. the U.S. Senate. September SEPTEMBER UN Security Council May Asia Pacific Leadership passes a resolution December Four NSP principals and Network (APLN) issues mirroring the NSP’s vision IAEA member states global experts attend statement from 25 leaders of a world without nuclear vote for an international London conference, urging a renewed global weapons and the steps to nuclear fuel bank, Deterrence: Its Past focus on non-proliferation get there. consistent with the steps. and Future. and disarmament. 2009 2010 2011 2012 9 Building Global Momentum

We believe The interest, momentum and growing political Creating Political Space for Change that“ now is the space to address these issues since the January 2007 The Project has helped develop networks of leaders right time to act op-ed has been extraordinary. Government and to create the political space for dialogue, education opinion leaders worldwide have expressed support. and action on the vision and steps toward a world and carry the More than half of the living former U.S. Secretaries without nuclear weapons. Nearly 200 senior momentum of of State, Secretaries of Defense and National political, military, diplomatic and scientific leaders nonproliferation Security Advisors have endorsed the initiative. from across Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America One of the most encouraging responses to and disarmament have joined the newly formed networks, and the op-ed series has been a wave of like-minded they have engaged wide-ranging audiences in an forward. opinion editorials from high-level, former officials ongoing discussion about today’s nuclear threats — Op-ed ”in Korea around the world. To date, sets of former officials and increased public awareness and understanding JoongAng Daily, from 13 countries have joined together across of the consequences of inaction. 2010 party lines to publicly endorse the vision and steps agenda. Asia Pacific Leadership Network: The Asia Pacific Leadership Network (APLN) includes more than 30 former senior political, diplomatic and military leaders from 13 countries. The group includes five former prime ministers and 10 former foreign and defense ministers and representation from nuclear-armed states China, India and Pakistan.

European Leadership Network: The European Leadership Network (ELN) is made up of more than 60 former senior European political, military and diplomatic leaders who have come together to express concern over the world’s growing nuclear dangers and work to have those dangers addressed on a multilateral basis.

UK Top Level Group: The Top Level Group (TLG) is composed of 20 senior UK parliamentarians from all three major political parties who advocate multilateral nuclear The four leaders attend the United Nations Security Council Summit on Nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. The group Nonproliferation and Nuclear Disarmament, September 2009 consists of nearly all the former senior ministers of foreign affairs and defense over the last two decades 10 and includes former chiefs of the defense staff who Taking Action served during the same period. To learn more about the networks affiliated with the NSP, and to read statements, analytic papers Latin American Leadership Network: and updates on their work, visit: The Latin American Leadership Network (LANL), in development, will gather former  Asia Pacific Leadership Network: ministers, politicians and diplomats from across www.a-pln.org Mexico, Central America, South America  European Leadership Network: and the Caribbean to work to improve public www.EuropeanLeadershipNetwork.org understanding, shape public opinion and influence political decision-making and diplomatic  UK Top Level Group: activity on nuclear non-proliferation and www.TopLevelGroup.org disarmament issues.

Participants at London conference, Deterrence: Its Past and Future, May 2011 11 Broad Global Support

The need In the United States, former Secretaries of State Zbigniew Brzezinski, White House for such vision and Defense and former White House National National Security Advisor “ Security Advisors from both political parties have and action Frank Carlucci, Secretary of Defense endorsed the vision and steps. Among them: is all too William Cohen, Secretary of Defense Madeleine Albright, Secretary of State apparent. Melvin Laird, Secretary of Defense Richard V. Allen, White House ” Anthony Lake, White House National — Margaret Beckett, National Security Advisor Security Advisor former Secretary of State for James A. Baker III, Secretary of State Robert McFarlane, White House Foreign and National Security Advisor Samuel R. Berger, White House Commonwealth General Colin Powell, Affairs, United National Security Advisor Secretary of State Kingdom, Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference, June 25, 2007

Shultz, Nunn, Perry and Shirley Williams, member of the UK House of Lords, speak to Parliamentarians, London, 2011

12 Around the world, former prime ministers, It is . . . military leaders, foreign secretaries and other key leaders across the political spectrum have a“ welcome added their voices to the call for change. Leaders development from 13 countries penned like-minded op-eds in that more and the ongoing effort to galvanize the public and government officials. To read the op-eds, go to: more statesmen www.NuclearSecurityProject.org have been sounding a Australia France wake-up call to “Imagine There’s No Bomb.” Malcolm Fraser, “For Global Nuclear Disarmament, the Only Gustav Nossal, Barry Jones, Peter Gration, Means to Prevent Anarchic Proliferation.” Alain governments John Sanderson and Tilman Ruff, April 8, 2009, Juppe, Michel Rocard, Alain Richard and Bernard and peoples to The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald Norlain, October 14, 2009, Le Monde deal urgently Belgium Germany with the nuclear “Toward a Nuclear Weapons Free World.” Willy “Toward a Nuclear-Free World: A German View.” crisis. Claes, Guy Verhofstadt, Jean-Luc Dehaene and Helmut Schmidt, Richard von Weizsäcker, Hans- Louis Michel, February 19, 2010, De Standaard Dietrich Genscher and Egon Bahr, January 9, — Op-ed” in 2009, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and Canada’s Canada International Herald Tribune Globe and Mail “Toward a World Without Nuclear Weapons.” Jean Chrétien, Joe Clark, Ed Broadbent and Lloyd Italy Axworthy, March 25, 2010, The Globe and Mail “Towards a Nuclear-Weapon-Free World.” Massimo D’Alema, Gianfrance Fini, Giorgio La Malfa, Arturo Parisi and Francesco Calogero, July 24, 2008, Il Corriere della Sera

13 Nuclear deterrence“ is impotent in the face of the new threats of the 21st Russia century, namely: “From Nuclear Deterrence to Universal Security.” proliferation of Yevgeny Primakov, Igor Ivanov, Yevgeny Velikhov weapons of mass and Mikhail Moiseev, October 15, 2010, Izvestia, Russia: Beyond the Headlines destruction and their delivery “The Nuclear Threat.” Mikhail Gorbachev, January 31, 2007, The Wall Street Journal systems, The Netherlands international “Toward a Nuclear Weapon Free World.” Ruud South Korea Lubbers, Max van der Stoel, Hans van Mierlo terrorism, ethnic “A Road Map for a Nuclear Free World.” Lee ­ and Frits Korthals Altes, November 23, 2009, Hong-koo, Han Sung-joo, Park Kwan-yong and and religious NRC Handelsblad Paik Sun-yup, June 23, 2010, JoongAng Daily conflicts, and Norway Sweden trans-border “A Nuclear Weapon-Free World.” Odvar Nordli, “Swedish Declaration on the Elimination of crime. Gro Harlem Brundtland, Kåre Willoch, Kjell Nuclear Weapons.” Ingvar Carlsson, Hans Blix, ” Magne Bondevik and Thorvald Stoltenberg, Karin Söder and Rolf Ekeus, April 11, 2010, DN.se — Op-ed in June 4, 2009, Aftenposten Russia’s United Kingdom Poland Izvestia “Start Worrying and Learn to Ditch the Bomb.” “The Unthinkable Becomes Thinkable: Towards Douglas Hurd, Malcolm Rifkind, David Owen Elimination of Nuclear Weapons.” Aleksander and George Robertson, June 30, 2008, The Times Kwaśniewski, Tadeusz Mazowieck and Lech Walesa, April 3, 2009, Gazeta Wyborcza

14 Looking Ahead

The Nuclear Security Project has contributed to must take action to reduce nuclear stockpiles, important progress on reducing urgent nuclear change Cold War postures and mindsets, and dangers. The New START treaty and the Nuclear secure weapons materials around the world. The Security Summits help advance the steps toward Nuclear Security Project is committed to building the vision outlined by the four NSP principals. the leadership and cooperation needed to maintain However, global nuclear risks are expanding and the momentum—for today and for generations much work remains to be done. The international to come. Visit www.NuclearSecurityProject.org community, led by the United States and Russia, to be part of this important work.

Global Networks Working Toward a Common Goal

✦✦ ✦ ✦ ✦ ✦ ✦ ✦✦ ✦ ✦ ✦ ✦

✦

Nuclear Security Asia Pacific European UK Top Level Latin American Op-ed Project Leadership Network Leadership Network Group Leadership Network ✦ (in development)

15 NSP Staff Project Co-Directors Joan Rohlfing Isabelle Williams

Project Staff Robert Berls Naomi Diehl Cathy Gwin Mimi Hall Kelsey Hartigan Joan Rohlfing Isabelle Williams Corey Hinderstein Carmen MacDougall Deborah Rosenblum

Project Consultant Steve Andreasen

The Nuclear Security Project recognizes the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York, The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. www.NuclearSecurityProject.org

16 George P. Shultz: “ We set out to create something that is not partisan at all. ”

William J. Perry: This is such an important problem in my mind, that it dwarfs all“ other considerations. And I have, myself, decided to devote the balance of my career to working to achieve that goal. ”

Henry A. Kissinger: Once nuclear weapons are used, we will be driven to take global measures“ to prevent it. So some of us have said, ‘Let's ask ourselves: if we have to do it afterwards, why don't we do it now?’ ”

Sam Nunn: The way I view it is that if you view the goal of getting to zero“ as the top of the mountain . . . I think we have an obligation to our children and to our grandchildren to build paths up the mountain. ”

17 Sustain the Momentum

To learn more and get involved, visit: www.NuclearSecurityProject.org www.NuclearTippingPoint.org

1747 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Seventh Floor, Washington, DC 20006 T 202.296.4810 F 202.296.4811 www.nti.org 18